Legendary Upside Source

Legendary Upside artwork

VideoFrom Legendary Upside

Angles and Upside Week 6 w/ Rich Hribar

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

3 hr 13 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Oct 17, 2026

Published

Sat, October 17, 2026

26

Player insights

25

Players mentioned

Topics

D'Andre SwiftAlvin KamaraBijan RobinsonCaleb WilliamsCJ DonaldsonCole KmetColston LovelandD.J. MooreDarnell MooneyDrake LondonIsaiah LikelyJahmyr GibbsJaxon Smith-NjigbaJuwan Johnson

Player analysis

Player insights

26

Alvin Kamara

NegativeProjection32:16

The source is not interested in Alvin Kamara for fantasy, ranking him as an RB4 and noting that he is touchdown-dependent, especially while dealing with a back injury.

Bijan Robinson

PositiveMatchup36:29

Bijan Robinson is a clear RB1 for the week against a Bears defense that ranks 30th in rushing DVOA and 27th in EPA. He is highly effective on outside zone runs, which the Bears struggle to defend, and he historically averages 30 fantasy points per game in matchups with a total of 47 or higher. His status is solidified by Jahmyr Gibbs being on a bye.

Caleb Williams

PositiveUsage23:06

Caleb Williams is failing to execute the offense as designed, with an absurdly low 31% first-read throw rate and a 3.70-second time-to-throw. He is improvising at a high rate, turning down first reads, and his high depth of target leads to an inaccurate target rate. While he retains boom-bust upside as a 'Justin Fieldsian' version of Josh Allen, his potential hamstring injury and the team's run-heavy approach create volatility. He is expected to be good if healthy, but the offense may be sloggy.

CJ Donaldson

NegativeUsage32:10

CJ Donaldson played a significant amount of snaps last week, primarily serving in a pass protection role.

Cole Kmet

NegativeUsage25:07

The source notes that Cole Kmet is a candidate for increased offensive involvement as the team evaluates its target distribution and pass-catching options.

Colston Loveland

PositiveRole27:48

Despite a poor start, there is optimism for Colston Loveland as the team looks to run the ball and utilize him in the play-action game. While his early-season production was misleading, he retains upside for spike weeks in an offense that may distribute targets randomly.

D.J. Moore

NegativeInjury28:28

DJ Moore has been dealing with injury issues, contributing to the unpredictability of the Bears' passing weapons.

D'Andre Swift

NegativeUsage37:53

D'Andre Swift is used as a statistical benchmark for outside zone run usage, ranking first in the league in that category. He is considered the primary back for the Bears, maintaining a 76% snap share through three quarters last week despite a blowout game script.

PositiveUsage53:59

DeAndre Swift remains the primary back for the Bears. Despite a 38% carry share last week due to game script and a blowout, he maintained a 76% snap share and handled 13 of 18 backfield touches through three quarters, confirming his status as the reliable option.

Darnell Mooney

PositiveUsage10:08

Darnell Mooney has minimal fantasy impact, essentially just 'eating routes' in the offense. He holds only an 11.6% target share and a 0.77 yards per route run rate, leading the source to conclude he is effectively doing nothing for fantasy purposes.

Drake London

PositiveUsage39:13

Drake London is the clear engine of the Falcons' passing game, boasting a 39% target share and 5.6 yards per route run in multiple tight-end sets. When playing with Michael Penix Jr., his usage is statistically comparable to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, featuring a 35% target share and 43% air yard share. He is highly efficient against man coverage and is a primary fantasy asset despite currently missing touchdown production.

Isaiah Likely

PositiveUsage9:24

Isaiah Likely remains a focal point of the offense with a 30% target share. While technically a tight end, he functions primarily as a receiver with only an 8.7% tight end alignment rate, making him a key component of the team's concentrated passing attack.

Jahmyr Gibbs

NegativeMatchup30:59

The source suggests the matchup against the Vikings could be difficult for Jahmyr Gibbs, citing historical trends where running backs are forced into heavy pass protection roles against Minnesota; he is also on a bye week.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

NegativeUsage39:20

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is used as a statistical proxy to describe the high-volume usage and role of Drake London in the Falcons' offense, specifically when London plays with Michael Penix Jr.

Juwan Johnson

PositiveUsage30:39

After Juwan Johnson's route participation dropped to 67% last week due to matchup-specific blocking requirements, the source expects a bounceback performance.

Kalif Raymond

NegativeUsage25:07

The source suggests that Kalif Raymond might be more involved in the offense than initially projected, as the team continues to sort out its pass-catching hierarchy.

Kendre Miller

NegativeProjection33:23

The source ranks Kendre Miller as an RB4, noting that while he has a higher rushing percentage on his snaps compared to teammates, he remains touchdown-dependent in a crowded backfield.

Kyle Pitts

PositiveUsage68:24

Kyle Pitts is not a recommended start, as his depth of target (aDOT) has been consistently low (4.5, 2.7, and 4.8) since Michael Penix Jr. took over, effectively relegating him to a checkdown role.

Luther Burden

PositiveUsage29:05

Luther Burden has shown upside with a 20-point game in Week 3 and is a strong play against single-high safety looks, which the Falcons utilize 64% of the time. He is now playing more traditional wide receiver roles compared to last year's manufactured touches, boasting a 26% target rate and over two yards per route run against those looks.

Malachi Fields

NegativeUsage10:08

Malachi Fields has no significant fantasy impact, serving only to occupy routes in the current offensive scheme.

Malik Nabers

PositiveUsage3:21

Malik Nabers is a primary fantasy focus and the 'cover boy' for the walkthrough. He is a central part of the team's aggressive downfield passing attack, commanding a 29% target share. His recent usage has been elite, with aDOTs of 15.7 and 12.1 over the last two weeks and yards per route run (YPRR) of 3.73 and 2.09, maintaining a 2.06 season average.

MarShawn Lloyd

PositiveUsage70:15

MarShawn Lloyd is noted for his athleticism and ability to run through defenders, as evidenced by his play against Jaylon Johnson.

Najee Harris

NegativeRole12:36

Najee Harris has unexpectedly taken over the goal-line role, a development the source describes as confusing. This usage negatively impacts the consistency of high-value touches for other running backs in the Pittsburgh offense.

Rome Odunze

NegativeRole34:54

Rome Odunze has returned to a full-time role, running a high volume of routes and staying on the field for heavy sets. While he is a weekly start with significant upside, his high depth of target paired with Caleb Williams' play style leads to volatility and a high rate of inaccurate targets.

Tyrone Tracy

PositiveUsage14:25

Tyrone Tracy Jr. returned to the field last week and commanded a 6% target share, which the source notes is boxing out other running backs in a way that makes little sense for fantasy production.

Tyson Bagent

NegativeDepth Chart24:32

Tyson Bagent is noted as having served as the Bears' quarterback during their inconsistent early-season stretch, specifically during the Week 4 blowout loss.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

2,056

0:00Welcome to the Legendary Upside podcast and YouTube feed. My name is Pat Karine.

0:05You can follow all of my content at legendaryupside.com. With me today, Rich Reebar for Angles and Upside Pod.

0:11Reeves, how's it going?

0:13>> It's going good, man. It's, you know, we're week six, like basically a third of the season now, the regular season,

0:18which feels kind of crazy, but we've got and and there's a few teams we just kind of still are waiting to figure stuff out

0:23on, right? like you know like we're going to get the Kale Williams is coming back like right it's like so like all

0:29these things are still in motion. We're trying to figure stuff out. There's teams that have adjusted from like terrible starts like the Packers. We

0:34won't talk about the Packers on this show because we don't do a Sunday night but like they've made huge adjustments.

0:38The Patriots Yeah. It's like so the the season's like in motion. It's really cool because you see how teams are calibrating and then

0:45also we see how teams are not calibrating and are just we are developing specific trends we can either tack or lean into.

0:52I know there's you kind of get into things where like this team's terrible and then like occa like like randomly they'll pop up and not be terrible and

1:00and you try to like find that, you know, because it'll it'll win someone a DFS tournament. But like >> mostly they'll just be terrible.

1:09So like we're kind of settling into that. Um but yeah, let's kick things off with the uh the Saints and Giants. And I

1:15I'll say before we dive into the first game here, you know, we cover the the Sunday main slate uh for this podcast,

1:20but uh check out everything we got going on, Sharp Football Analysis. You can check out Reeves's worksheet. He dives into all the games there. I do all the

1:28games over on Legendary Upside with the walkthrough covering all these games, but then do doing separate articles for the London game and the Monday Night

1:37Football game. And then Matt Herby covers Thursday night and Sunday Night Football for us as well. So, all these games are written up over there and

1:44that's the best way to support the pod is go uh sign up and read what we got there and there's a ton of charts and

1:50lots of other great content that we will dive pretty deep, but there's going to be little nuggets we don't get to. So,

1:55>> please check that all out. Uh, obviously like the channel, do all that good stuff, too. Hit smash that like button,

2:01all all that stuff. But, uh, Saints at Giants, I had Malik Neighbors as the cover boy. I was tempted to go with with

2:09Chris Olive as the cover boy of the walkthrough and ended up sticking with the same game and went with Neighbors.

2:14Olave has been dealing with an illness.

2:16Um, you know, with a little tiebreaker against, but I like this game environment, which is why I wanted to uh have it lead the walkth through this

2:25week. The the thing that jumped out to me was the Saints, you know, and I and I noted this heading into the Vikings

2:31game, right? We talked about this, the Saints >> were really living off volume. They were fast-paced. They're they're still uh they were a little less fast last week,

2:40but still second in situation neutral pace this season to the Panthers and really pass heavy, but they go into this

2:49Vikings matchup and they stop passing because Tyler Shuck has a really really poor performance and they basically hid their passing game. They played a lot

2:58like the Dolphins and the Chargers last week. They had a minus 12% pass rate over expected. They passed just 61% of

3:05the time despite a 73% expected pass rate and they they were at minus 10% on first and 10. So kind of

3:12the things that were making the Saints the Saints evaporated. And then we were left looking at Tyler Shuck who hasn't really been that efficient all year

3:21>> and he was even worse against the Vikings as you would expect, but he was really bad. He had minus 12.5 EPA per

3:25game. So now we look at a Giants matchup and it's like, "All right, I think we're back to, you know, what this was

3:33before." The Vikings are going to be this weird Yep.

3:36>> like little blip in a lot of people's schedules where Brian Flores is just he's he's doing incredible stuff right now and he's playing unlike any other

3:45defensive coordinator. They're blitzing at an absurd rate and they're playing very effectively. The Vikings, the Giants have no pass rush. their deadlast

3:52in pressure rate and they're 22nd in passing DVA, 23rd in EPA and 23rd in dropback success rate. So my read on

3:59this is I think the Saints get back to what they were doing in terms of creating more volume in their games and

4:07Shock returns to solid usable efficiency and given that they don't have a good run game at all, it would make sense for

4:15them to do that. Plus that's the way they've played things when not playing the Vikings. So let's start with the Saints. Are you with me on that read?

4:22Yeah, we need them to start fast, too, for this game. Uh, which unfortunately they always they they they don't they don't going back.

4:28>> That's true. They don't like to do that.

4:30>> They don't. Yeah, they're the only them and the Dolphins are the only two teams that where the opponents scored first

4:34every game so far this year.

4:36>> We kind of need them, too, cuz we want to we want to push the Giants out of smoke. The Giants are like completely

4:41content like running for two and a half yards per carry. Like, they're like, "This is great. Like, we love this." Uh

4:46>> they are, but last week they were they had a 5% pass rate ever expected and 21% on first and 10. And so my hope is

4:55actually the Giants >> they're coming out of it a little bit because they get a Saints defense 27th in the passing DVOA, 26th in EPA, and

5:0328th in drop back success rate. So the Saints pass defense absolutely stinks.

5:07They're also terrible against the run.

5:09They're dead last in DBOA and success rate and 31st in EPA. So, it's kind of like the Giants. I don't feel as

5:14confident about them being aggressive, but I think they'll be efficient. And then if the Saints are able to push and this, you know, these two offenses are

5:22pushing each other, it could get really fun. But you're right. I mean, the Giants could just kind of sit on the

5:27ball a little bit more.

5:29>> They did, but they have played games the past two weeks that had 60 and 54 combined points against the Cardinals

5:35and the Commanders. So, uh, definitely have a little more faith in the Saints offenses than both of those offenses and at least with the personnel that they

5:43came into those games with. So, I do believe that there will be some efficiency here. Giants really, oddly enough, too, are one of these teams that

5:51have had a better defense than like I expected it to be, especially cuz they're not getting a pass rush really.

5:56And Brian Burns has been out, but like >> they have the highest rate of three plays and punt like per drive in the

6:01NFL. Uh, 30% of the drives against them are just three plays and out. Um they have a couple uh DBs like Deontay Banks

6:08has been awesome this year. Uh like a big- time career turnaround to where he's been to this point and it's just

6:13like but then when you look at too like their like who they've played it's like well how real are like them facing you

6:18know Jaden Daniels last week who did it all rushing >> uh Cam Ward in the rain Jacobe Brousette right like it's so

6:27>> this they have to limit possessions I think for them to be effective. Um, and they could have success running here,

6:33but like the Saints are another team too where like the run defense is awful, but like you then you look at like well they

6:39face Jir Gibbs and Bejian Robinson and Derrick Henry and like even Aaron Jones has been good and it's like this Giants

6:45run game has just been so bad though too. So there are like push and pull narratives here. But I think when it

6:50just gets down to it, you have Tyler Shuck and you have Jamus Winston. Like two dudes that can make a game

6:55environment like propel into a state that we want it to be in >> 100%. And and one of the things that

7:01jumped out to me with Winston, right?

7:04Winston, it's Jameus Winston, right? Like do you think he has a high A dot or a shallow A dot? His A dot's 9.5. It's it's pretty

7:12high. Do you think he's attempting a lot of deep passes? Yes. It's 17% deep pass rate. like he's doing the Jamus stuff

7:19but when you look at what Jamus is doing because you know you see like Malik Willis right Malik Willis a lot of deep

7:26passes high A dot but really long time to throw low first read attempt rate so he's like he's passing that first read

7:35up holding the ball trying to make plays generally not going well Winston >> he has a 2.70 time to throw that's

7:43pretty quick you know like super fast is 2.5 or lower >> above three, you're starting to really hang on to the ball. So, he's he's

7:50getting the ball out on time.

7:52>> And then he also has a 65% first read throw rate, which is very high. It's one of the highest in the league. So, this

8:00offense, like, credit to Matt Naggi here with Jameus Winston. It looks to me like they're like, "Hey, this guy, you know

8:07what this guy does? He likes to attack.

8:10So, we're going to design route concepts, call plays where he actually has someone that he can push the ball downfield to, and that's not him, then

8:20like he's not being asked to like take this little, you know, quick hitter that he's going to pass up, you know? So,

8:27they're building the offense around uh their quarterback. Now, unfortunately, they're they're also apparently going to have more in store for JJ McCarth the JJ

8:35McCarthy package this week. I really >> What a phrase.

8:39>> Yeah.

8:41So, I wish they would only build it around one quarterback, but you know, they're building around both guys, I guess. But, you know, uh Winston, like

8:50it just it makes me feel a lot more confident in Winston that he he basically has the offense built around what he does well. Like Malik Neighbors

8:58over the last two weeks, he's had a dots of 15.7 and 12.1. And that's worked out really well. He's had yards per out runs

9:05over the last two weeks of 3.73, 2.09.

9:08He's at 2.06 for the season. So, they're using Neighbors downfield and and you know, we talk about uh Winston attacking downfield at high rate. A lot of that is

9:17Malik Neighbors, which is which is another reason I'm excited about him here in this against the Saints defense that does not have a pass rush. They're

9:2528th in pressure. They're 31st in quick pressure rate.

9:28>> I think they're probably the weaker of the two defenses ultimately. Yeah. Um so you know that's that's where you could

9:35see Winston could be quite efficient and then in a high volume passing game um just where like maybe they don't have

9:42the highest pass rate of all time or the highest proe but the Saints are pushing back you could get a lot of production

9:48here in the Giants passing game but um anyone I mean and the other thing is Isaiah likely is still just getting

9:55pepper with targets 30% target share still >> um he finally really went off last week after, you know, being quiet since his

10:04week one spike week. So, he's obviously really interesting here as well. And and Darnell Mooney and Malachi Fields like are really doing nothing. They're just

10:11kind of like eating routes. So, you've got a very concentrated offense on the Giants side, which makes it pretty interesting as well.

10:18>> They've also swerved into playing a lot more 12 personnel. They were at 41% last week. That was a season high. 50% of

10:24their passing plays were out of 12 personnel. And it's kind of a lie. We have a few of these teams doing this now

10:29because Isaiah likely doesn't play tight end.

10:32>> Yeah.

10:32>> Like >> he has a 8.7% tight end rate.

10:36>> So, uh, >> you know, he's we have a few of these guys like in that range. You know, obviously Bowowers being like the head

10:42the head pin, you know, Gaseki has always been this range. Pat Fry's doing it this year, Joan Johnson, uh, you know, Dalton Kay, like these are guys

10:49like when we're seeing like these 12 and 13 personnel rates, like we have to take into account it's like it's not really

10:53like not really. But it what they do though, it's what's made this like era of the NFL so interesting though is

10:59because they do hoodwink these teams into coming out and like base personnel.

11:03Like it's kind of been one of the talking points we've had even on the show this year.

11:06>> And that's what they did to the commanders like got the commanders to come out here and just play base personnel when you know when you have

11:12Isaiah likely on the field. Uh which is crazy. So, like that was pretty big because um we have seen the Raiders

11:18already play the Saints, you know, and they threw out of 12 personnel on 75% of their pass plays against the Saints in

11:25week three and they they were really efficient, you know, throwing out of those sets, too. So, we could hopefully see that with Jameus Winston because

11:32last week he was out of 12 personnel, he was 22 of 28. Uh 79% Jamon Winston completion percent is not where we

11:39usually shop, right? Uh uh the efficiency of Jameus Winston eight yards for pass attempt too. Yes. So it's like if we can get like a little bit of

11:46efficiency too with Jameus like oh wow we're cooking with some gas like absolutely. Uh and then I said you are they're throw he's throwing two guys

11:54there just two guys running the offense so it's very clean. Uh with Jameus Winston it's 29% target share for neighbors 30% fail likely. The next

12:03highest guy is Mooney at 11.6. So it's just tied into these two guys. It's very clean to play through the passing game

12:10here of those two those two players.

12:12>> And Mooney's at 0.77 yards per hour and like he's he's nothing. He's really nothing. So, um, in the backfield, Scataboo, I I wrote him. It's like,

12:22dude, I don't know how they did this, but they turned Cam Scataboo, a guy who like couldn't really do a ton of stuff,

12:28but he's great in short yardage and he can catch the ball. So, high value touch king.

12:34He is not this year. He is. He's a literal trapback. Like he they've they've taken his goal line role.

12:40They've handed that to Naji for some reason, which make it truly makes no sense.

12:44>> I can't get my head around it. And then they've also stopped throwing to him.

12:48He's had uh three and six% target shares over the last two weeks. So, he's just grinding it out between the 20s.

12:56Scataboo now kind of represents a failure mode for this game, right? like he he just they feed Scataboo and >> he's not like he I'm not even confident

13:07that means he's going to be a really fun play in his own right because it's going to be a lot of just carries

13:12>> and he might get pulled at the goal line. Um and it's kind of a way for them to slow down the game uh and just like

13:19you know for plays to to just reside without scoring us many points in our lineup. So yeah, that do you do you read

13:26that the same? Yeah, like you said, just the we've been talking about it for weeks like just there was a couple weeks

13:32where it looked like he was going to start to get involved in the pass game and just hasn't played out uh the last

13:36two weeks where that was anything consistent for us to lean in and then they've started to pepper in Naji near the goal line which so like we have no

13:44like consistent high value touches to lean into. That means he has to be hyper efficient as a runner which he hasn't

13:49been. Uh >> and he's not gonna be >> and he's you're you're right. He's not going to be. And that's we we can't even

13:56really use the matchup as like really elevation because the matchup, like we said, has been good, but we were kind of

14:01here a couple weeks ago with um Ashen Janty, you know, to be fair, he's been banged up and like >> they like he wasn't even efficient in

14:09that matchup either. So, >> it's just really hard to lean into. I get there's buys and stuff this week and like gamers probably have to have to use

14:16him, but like he does profile as more of like this dude's like hardly like even really like a like an upside flex play

14:23at this point.

14:25Yeah, it it's pretty rough. Um Tyrone Tracy was back playing last week. He had a 6% target share. So he's scatteroo is

14:33just getting boxed out in a way that makes no sense. Um I still had him as a low in RB2 just as a bet on the matchup.

14:39But um >> yeah, that's fair. And it's it's a week where there's lots of injuries and buys, a couple more buy teams and buy this

14:45week. So >> he ended up being like I wrote him up more negatively than where his like official ranking was for me, too. But

14:50like I always like to think of from like an expectation stance. I think we're both in the same area.

14:54>> Yeah, it's just like he's going to Yeah, you you hope that maybe he doesn't maybe he scores from the seven.

15:02>> Something like that. Um Saint uh like give me your thoughts on kind of where we're at on on Tyler Shuck and

15:12this offense as they get now get sorry now get a much easier match up against the Giants.

15:17It's still like one of these things you you have to take faith in like game conditions or if he can just be

15:21efficient because he hasn't. Like it's still like we I still feel like we want the volume firsthand. Like if you're telling me I'm only going to get like a

15:2720 >> eight target or a pass attempt Tyler Shuck game. I don't feel great about that. I just don't feel like really good

15:34about where he's at as a as a player like at this point of his career. I think we were like this last year too

15:38with him too. He's not he's running a lot less too this year. The other thing is since Kelvin Banks has gotten

15:43injured, like he's just been under siege. And like that might not matter here because Giants like they're not generating a big pass rush, especially a

15:49Brian Burns out. But here's the thing, even kept clean the past three weeks, like this isn't a Vikings thing. This is

15:55the past three weeks from a clean pocket, he's 24th in yards or pass attempt. Like it's like, so it's not even like it's a the like the whole like

16:03pressure is like breaking him down. Like he just like might not be that good.

16:07>> He's not that good. He's not that good.

16:09>> That out, but He's totally not that good. Like I I mean heading into the Vikings game, he didn't look that good.

16:14He looked like fine. He's like fine. The thing I was always like so confused that Jackson Dart wasn't treated as the top

16:22quarterback coming out of last year because like he clearly was and you know then he tore his Nate which sucks but um

16:29but like Shuck was like he was fine last year like in the efficiency he's you can load volume up on but I will say you

16:37know there's something to like this type of quarterback still can help us like this is oh >> you know >> kind of the the late career I mean

16:46cousin Kirk Cousins has been better than this recently. But like, you know, where you can just like, hey, Kirk Cousins, like what if you just get out there and

16:53chuck it a bunch and, you know, aren't terrible. You know, that that kind of quarterback. I That's where I view Chuck

17:00kind of as. It's like he's like a he's almost like a veteran filler. I mean, he's old enough, you know.

17:05>> Yeah. Because he's clearly good enough to still make the guys we care about good.

17:08>> Yeah. He's a facilitator and he just like just give he's he's like Jacobe Brassette basically. He's a Jacobe Brassette.

17:18>> Yeah, that's fair.

17:19>> Yeah.

17:20>> Just let him throw a lot >> and >> Yeah, that's what he has to do. Yeah, that's what he has to do. That's what we

17:25need this archetype to do is this is throw a lot.

17:28>> Yeah, but I think he does throw a lot this week, which which has me feeling >> good about Olave. Uh what's the latest

17:35with Olave in this illness? Have you seen Have you seen >> I haven't seen today. He wasn't out a guy I saw an update on. I would assume

17:41he's probably playing. He's been kind of playing through all these other things.

17:44Um, >> I was assuming he was playing and I treated it like he's playing and everything we've said so far, I assumed

17:50Olave was playing, but you know, was like, >> yeah, follow >> I I know the I did this I think the

17:56first year I wrote the walkthrough, I had Kyler Murray as the covered boy in like 2022 and then he didn't play.

18:02>> Like I'm never doing that again.

18:04>> Yeah. No, was it was some kind of like I think he was limited limited and then he just like didn't suit up with an ankle

18:10injury or something. We're officially as of one minute from Dan Dugan. The beat is they're they're listing him as questionable. They list him as limited

18:18uh again today.

18:19>> Okay. Okay. All right. So, I think we get a I like this setup a lot for him >> 2.62 yards per hour on this year. Vele,

18:27by the way, I mean Vele has just been like a bet on. We talked about he's just like playing more games than than other

18:33receivers, but I think we get back to that. I think if you've you know, you've been into Vele, he's he's fine here.

18:39Jawan Johnson was down to 67% round participation last week. We we talked about Hey, >> we talked about the Vikings stuff. Yeah.

18:45>> Yeah. Maybe he plays less. He did play less. I think he'll return. This looks like a little bit of a bounceback spot

18:51for him. Uh >> I cannot wait till the Vikings play the Lions just to see how that game plays out from like a stance like like I mean

18:59like >> cuz we might be bad for for Gibbs.

19:02>> Well, it was in the matchup last year.

19:04remember Dan Campbell was like apologizing after the game about like just how many cuz it was like the most times a running back had to be in pass

19:11protection and like he got crushed >> in that game. But we've se we've consistently seen like we've talked about this for a few weeks now that

19:18teams are like they're playing it they're they're playing like the a bigger tight end like an extra tight end against the Vikings and they're using

19:24like either a bigger back or a fullback to be in practice and that happened again with the Saints cuz you know we

19:30we'll get to like they played CJ Donaldson a ton last week because and Kamar was I know he had a back injury

19:36and like was a was a little iffy but it was consistent to what we've seen other teams do though against the Vikings.

19:42Yeah, >> they're if you have a tight end that's more of like that flex Y and doesn't like he gets limited in that matchup and

19:50you you have like a satellite back, that dude gets limited.

19:53>> Do you have any interested in any context in this this run game? I I've seen Chimera project like better than I

20:00would expect. Um I have him as an RB4.

20:03I'm not interested in Chimera really here >> or Miller who I also have as an as an RB4.

20:09>> No, they all got to score a touchdown.

20:10And even with a touchdown, what do you get? right? Like it's they're like those type of guys like you need him to score

20:16a touchdown. They've combined for two top 24 scoring weeks on the season. Uh one of those was was Han 2. So like one

20:23of the better players. But u if you're looking for like maybe this matchup you would say all right the Saints have run

20:28the ball on 48% of Kendry Miller snaps uh compared to 36% for Kamar and 35% for Donald who's basically like playing pass

20:37protection stuff. Um, and the and the vi the Giants are like the weaker of the of a run defense. So, if you were to favor

20:43like a rushing only profile, maybe it would be Kendrick Miller, but like like you, I mean, this is kind of more of

20:49like all these guys are kind of playing a little bit. That's not a really good run game to begin with. You need

20:54touchdowns. They're not Yeah. So, >> how excited are you?

20:58>> You're not. All right. Bears at Falcons.

21:01We got Caleb Williams back for this game. Talk to me about your expectations for the Bears. his game, this total's just been going up all week, too. Uh,

21:09it's just been getting bet up. So, it looks like a fun environment. It looks like we're, you know, PennX is going to

21:13play. There was some early concern in the week of, you know, will we get to uh back we told you like, uh, we were

21:18talking was like his agent never wants him to get on the field and put more film on T.

21:22>> His agent was right, dude.

21:23>> Got on there for one play, dude.

21:27>> His agent when he came out there, completed that pass and then he and then he walked, you know, PennX came back,

21:33his agent was like Oh, and then and then when Fenix wasn't able to play in overtime, you know, you know, the agent was just throwing [ __ ]

21:42before that pick.

21:45>> No, buddy.

21:47>> I feel for that guy, man.

21:49>> Rough. But we're going to start to see the reveal, right, with the Bears. Like I feel like all year like we just like

21:55anything we've seen from the Bears is like a big asterisk to this point. Like they're one of these teams.

22:00Well, I feel like we've gotten we've gotten like enough versions of the bears where I feel like I've seen, you know,

22:07like it's never we've never seen like the real version, but we've seen enough sort of distorted >> different distorted versions of the

22:14Bears that I have a picture in my head of kind of what they're supposed to be.

22:18>> Um I think, you know, but we don't know for sure. You're right. Like we've not really seen the real Bears, but part of

22:24the problem we haven't seen the real Bears is Caleb Williams. Yeah.

22:27>> Like he's not playing. He's not executing the offense. He has he has a 31% first rate throw rate, which is like

22:34not just the lowest in the NFL, but like absurdly low. He was at 56% last year, which is which was like I don't know,

22:40like seventh lowest or something. Uh, sorry, 53% last year. But, um, like he could go up so much higher, you know,

22:49and still be pretty low. He has a 3.70 second time to throw. Uh he was he had the longest time to throw last year and

22:57was about a half a second faster than this. So I mean it's two games, you know, things get kind of wonky in twoame

23:04samples. Um you know, he can he can basically play Caleb Williams ball and those the the first read throw rate will

23:11go up, the time to throw will go down.

23:14But it is it is distorting when you have a quarterback that that is turning down the first read at such a high rate and

23:22then holding on to the ball for so long.

23:25Like what the offense is sort of designed to be goes out the window a little bit because he's he's improvising. He is he's just truly out

23:31there improvising at a high rate.

23:33>> And that's a big deal for you know the state of his hamstring. you know, is he like fully playing like Caleb Williams

23:39or is he does he any type of restriction >> because it's not the scrambling stuff like you alluded to. I mean,

23:44>> this guy, you know, going back to uh he the first two games he he had a 58% drop back rate where he stayed in the pocket,

23:52the lowest in the NFL. Last year, he was 31 out of 33 guys in terms of rate of staying in the pocket. So, like he likes

23:57to buy time in big game hunt like you said. It's not hit your back step, balls out, first read and go, right? Like

24:03that's this is not the way he plays. And you know, Ben Johnson kind of understands that and he talked about like he wanted to hit some of those

24:10layups. Uh we did get a little bit of that in week one, but like that was again a weird game. Roma Dunay and

24:17Luther Burnon weren't 100% there coming off preseason injuries. We get the weird game in the rain where he does get hurt

24:23and then you know we're on QB >> and against the Vikings.

24:26>> Yeah. And against Vikings. Yeah. And then we're on QB3 in week three. We're on we're back to Begent in QB2 at at the

24:32in week uh four. Uh, and it's a blowout where the other the opposing team runs 30 plays and then we're back to last

24:40week where you get blown out, >> right? Like >> both quarterbacks play like ass.

24:45>> It's like so it's like it's a weird dynamics where like and it's more just trying to sort out the I think from the

24:50pass catcher stance, right? Of like what we're because that's what we're all trying to like sort out uh moving forward is like well who do we trust?

24:57Who do we lean on? And there is an outcome here where we overrated the whole picture and they were going to be

25:02more of a wider spread offense than we thought, but we're still trying to sort that out. Uh maybe they were going to

25:07involve Kif Raymond more than we thought. Maybe they were going to involve Cole KT more than we thought.

25:11Maybe they were going to run the ball more than we thought. Like these are all things we're looking to get kind of

25:14clarity on. But from it just from this game stance though, like there is a lot of upside still here, you know, in

25:21indoors, assuming they don't leave the the door open, the roof open or whatever. It's just there's no weather concerns here. The total's been going

25:27up. C.J. Henderson's out for the Falcons. The they allowed a 24-point game to Tyler Huntley last week. Like there's definitely upside here too as

25:37well to not ignore.

25:39>> Yeah, I think you know with Ben Johnson and you know, you're looking at Caleb Williams maybe taking a big step

25:46forward. I I think they kind of got treated by fantasy drafters a bit like the Lions.

25:52>> Yes. Yeah.

25:53>> And I think they might be more like the Bills.

25:57Yeah. Yeah, that's fair because Yeah.

25:58Yeah.

26:00>> And I think like Caleb Williams like I think Caleb Williams is going to get his like he he's running I mean again

26:06assuming his hamstring is good but he looked awesome against the Panthers. Uh he's going to be I think he'll be more

26:13boom bust than than Josh Allen. You know really really going out on a limb with that one. But I do think that and you

26:19know he's going to be um I think more kind of you know he's playing this he's playing like this Justin Fieldsian

26:28version of the kind of the Josh Allen thing where he's he's like really it is a bit of an inconsistent approach as a

26:35passer but when it hits it's going to hit really well. U but he's just not I I just don't think he's going to be taking

26:41the layups the way that we were hoping like compared to the way he played last year. you would like to have seen the

26:46first couple games of him shifting a lot more toward, hey, he's playing within himself and then adding on this layer where he's taking the big shots, but it

26:55was actually the opposite. So, it does make it tough for him to support, you know, all of these weapons and instead I

27:03think we get these weapons kind of popping up for big games a little bit more randomly. And then I do think like

27:10the Bills, and we'll get to it. Like the Bills this year as well, perhaps they're going to run the ball a lot. Um, you

27:18know, we'll talk about the Bills and their shift to the run, but the Bears, I mean, even in those early games, like

27:24they're they had a 54% pass rate against the Panthers, which was 1% below expected. They were at 61% against the Vikings, which was 9% below expected.

27:32So, I do think that this team is going to be built around the run and then kind of a big play passing game. Um, I'm not

27:39sure like how predictable the passing weapons are going to be. I do though, and you know, kind of weirdly, I have

27:48some optimism here for Coloulston Lovel uh just as like a you know, it's been so it's been so bad, but they have to I

27:59think I think they're going to want to run the ball here. Um, and I think they're going to be looking at Coulson

28:05Loveland, you know, as part of the play action game, which is which is a way you can beat the Falcons. And so, and again,

28:14kind of going to the idea of if this offense is more like the Bills where we have kind of weapons popping up, you

28:20know, Daltton Concincaid looks like he's going to be dominating and then he kind of disappears and, you know, obviously DJ Moore's dealt with injury, but like

28:28the Keon Coleman pops up and then goes away. like I think it's going to be a little bit more like that where you're

28:32trying to catch the right receiver in the right week. Um and so it it left me feeling like hey, you know, this picture

28:41of Coloulston Loand is probably pretty misleading.

28:44>> Yeah.

28:45>> Now he's not going to be what we drafted him to be. He should have probably been going more like where Dalton Concaid and

28:52Travis Kelce and those guys were going.

28:55May maybe with like Sam Laora and Tucker Craft, but but certainly not where he was drafted. But I I do think there is

29:00upside for him still to spike. Um you know and we have seen upside from Luther Burton. Uh so far he he got to almost 20

29:09points in in week three. Um there there are going to be upside games from these from these receivers and I think Lovelin

29:16is still included in that.

29:18>> Yeah. And we've already seen it, right?

29:19Top 10 pick like had a pocket of of of differencem production last year. It's just when you have that type of small

29:26sample production and at a onesie position and you think it's high leverage, that's like what propelled his ADP, right? Like that's

29:34>> it's kind of >> it's for him to just dominate targets is is what people were and I get I mean,

29:38you know, >> and that happened to >> that happened to year two concaid remember cuz they got rid of Stfan Diggs

29:44and then he like was going super high >> and Laora in year two was was going even higher than Loveland was. So, I mean it

29:52yeah, it's just one of those things where you you know you take take a little bit of the of the cheese with a

29:57small sample and you sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't, right?

30:01And you know because like Parker Washington's obviously cooking right now, but there's a lot of examples where it it doesn't work out like you know

30:08Brian Thomas Jr. year one to year two as well >> uh into year three.

30:13>> Yeah.

30:14>> Uh yeah, it's hard to diagnose. I I do like those guys. I mean like I like Burden for like the matchup, but again

30:20like Burden's also one of these guys too with like his role is like how much like he's almost like more reliant on the

30:25first read stuff now than he was last year. Um cuz and well he had like more design stuff for him like the first read

30:32stuff was there for him because but it was really wasn't first read it was just a manufactured touch in a sense.

30:36>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

30:37>> Um where this year he's actually playing wide receiver. Uh um but we have seen him do really good. He's like been

30:44really hyper uh involved in these like in the offense when they you do get a lot of single high this year. So like

30:49even going back to last year he was but I take like a lot of his stuff from last year just with a grain of salt for the

30:53role he was in. But this year playing wide receiver he's been at 26% target rate with over two yards per out run

30:58against those looks which like what the Falcons are just leaning into fourth in the league at 64% of the time. So

31:04there's some signal there too. It's just like with all these guys though like you said it's just how reliable is the

31:09ceiling going to be? They they all feel like guys that are going to be like involved and then just like catch c

31:15catching like the random spike weeks.

31:17>> That's that Yeah, that's what it feels like to me. Um I do kind I'd like the bear like the what the Bears are going

31:24to do here I think is going to work. You know, they they're sixth in play action rate. The Falcons are 28th in EPA per

31:32play action drop back. They haven't seen a ton of play action against them, but I I think the Bears are going to do their

31:38thing. And so, you know, that that is encouraging when you think about the efficiency of the passing game, but it's like, okay, well, the offense isn't as

31:48concentrated as we were hoping. So, you got to pick between Burden, you know, Dunay and Loveland and Raymond, I guess.

31:56And then it's not going to be high volume probably because they are, I think, going to attack somewhat on the ground here. That's that's the way

32:01they've been playing things. They have a minus 2% passer expected and as I mentioned they were run heavy with Caleb Williams in those first two games and so

32:10like the volume's probably not going to be great for the Bears offense. Um but you know the the efficiency should be

32:17there. So Williams I I like you know as long as he's healthy as long as we're getting reports that that uh like I

32:23think Williams will be will be quite good. Um, and then probably the next most reliable piece is the run game, but

32:32we had uh Kyle Manungai miss last week.

32:36Looks like he'll miss again.

32:38>> Yeah, he's going to miss again.

32:39>> DeAndre Swift had just 38% of the carries last week and we saw a bunch of Roshan Johnson. I think that is probably

32:48just related to the game script, the blowout, that, you know, kind of distorted view there. So, Swift is probably the dude if you're thinking

32:56about this. The Bears are getting back on track, who's like reliable. Um, I shout out Lovelin more to say, hey, include him in like your spike week

33:06upside uh pool, but Swift and Caleb Williams to me look like the guys who are going to like be pretty reliable

33:15here. Yeah, Swift, he only had two touches in the second half, but uh you know, three through three quarters, he was at a 76% snap share and he had 13 of

33:2418 back field touches. I think just responsibly they were like, "We're getting cooked like this dude's been banged up. Get him get the hell out of

33:31here." Uh that because in the fourth quarter, Roshan had five touches for 34 yards. Like just kind of cleaned up there at the end. Falcons have been a

33:40pass funnel, but they've also not played a good running team until the Ravens.

33:43And well, the Ravens aren't even a good running team at this stage, but a team that will run the ball. Like all the

33:47teams they faced the opening month were all teams that just lean into the pass anyways outside of the Falcons game. Uh,

33:54you know, Steelers, Panthers, Packers, Saints, like all those teams have just leaned into the pass. Uh, regardless, Bears are going to be more this is like

34:02that they're going to be a lot more balanced like the Ravens were. Even if they are having uh, you know, fits uh,

34:07of the game where they are having unsuccessful runs, they will they will continue to attempt to run. Um whereas like they faced a lot of opponents that

34:15weren't uh willing to do that. So I do like like said it's just it's just how the Bears play. Uh like you we rarely

34:22see them even going back to last year when they got real hot at the end of the year like it was because it was off of

34:27the explosive run game, >> right?

34:29>> Um so that's just the way and that's and you go back to Detroit what was the same story when Ben Johnson was there. Same

34:34story. So it's like >> and then and then it's to punish you for overplaying the run. The second you're overplaying the run now we're going to

34:40hit you with a big play in the passing game.

34:43>> Yep. And that's what they want to do.

34:47>> Yeah. I mean I I think Well, that probably covered. Anything else you want to shout out I guess on the on the Bear

34:52side with the passing game?

34:54>> No, that's pretty much it. We've seen Rome like get back to like I mean he's going to be a guy that's going to be

34:59he's because we didn't touch on him just uh he's run a ton of routes. He's back to being a full-time player. He's gotten

35:03a few end zone targets here the last couple weeks. uh he's just going to be, you know, that very high depth of target

35:08is always going to be something with Caleb Williams that's going to lead to uh the inaccurate target rate. Like he's just gonna always be a guy that's

35:15volatile, but like he is back to being like he's playing all the snaps when they go to like the heavy sets. Like

35:21he's the receiver saying on the field.

35:23Um so there is upside for him. It's just like you got to always He's a dude I feel like if you're in bed with Roman

35:28Dunay like you just play him and you just play him every week and you don't try to get cute with it and you you're

35:33going to live with the downs and take the highs.

35:36>> Yeah. Like what would what would that be like a 14 team league with, you know, you just have like three or four

35:41receiver spots you're just rolling out?

35:43Like that's where I'd be like, >> "Yeah, you're just part of the crew, man.

35:47>> He's got to do it."

35:49>> Yeah. But it's not a not a particularly fun.

35:52>> But he I just feel like he's for the role that he's in like you're gonna like talk yourself out of spots and talk

35:58yourself into spots that just aren't real because of the the types of targets he earns.

36:04>> He's just like, >> yeah, 100%.

36:05>> Like if you don't want to live that life, like you need to find a way to package him into something off of

36:11>> cuz you're going to be mad. You're going to bench him the week he has two touchdowns. Like it's just like that ar

36:16like we've been here. We've all danced around this, right? Like he's either a guy you have to play. Jameson Williams is like this too. Like if you drafted

36:22Jameson Williams, you have to understand like what you have.

36:24>> Like this is it is what it is.

36:27>> It is what it is.

36:29>> Falcons side Bears run defense ranks 30th in rushing DVA, 27th in EPA, 22nd in success rate, and they have Bejian

36:38Robinson. So >> yeah, excited for this matchup for for Robinson. Uh he's obviously played extremely well. Um, I was noting in the

36:49walkthrough that last week against the Ravens, he had 22 expected points, underperformed that, scored 15.8 PPR points. The week before against the

36:59Saints, his expected points were only 13.1. He spiked with 27.7. Of course, the reason his expected points were were that low is that Brian Robinson stole

37:08three touchdowns. Um, so don't don't want that. But we did see the expected points back up last week with with Robinson at just 4.6. So as annoying as

37:20as that was against the Saints, you know, he still scored almost 30 points.

37:23Bjan in in week four. Um he could have had a really strong game last week as well and he set up

37:30>> extremely well here. Uh Gibbs is on by.

37:32So Bejian the the clear RB1 here, you know, just kind of by default, but this is a a very strong setup for him. Yeah,

37:40a lot of angles here. The Forbes Robinson. Um, obviously he's good. Uh, first of all, he's all we start with him

37:46being good. Uh, but in and like you look at his usage. 62% of his runs are outside zone runs. That's second in the

37:53league to DeAndre Swift on their side.

37:55Um, and the Bears have just been killed on outside zone. They're they're 22nd in yards per carry, 31st in explosive run

38:00rate. Also a terrible dude to be facing when you give up explosive runs.

38:04literally runs of 38, 59, 55 yards the past two games. Uh their past three games are 27th in rate of those runs to

38:13go for a first down or touchdown. And then we get in this like weird spot too that we don't get often with Bejian

38:19Robinson because he's been playing on this team that does they just don't play in a lot of high total games, but he's

38:24played six career games with a a total of 47 or higher. He have just 30 fantasy points per game in those games and just

38:30once has he been under 27. So like pretty good and like we just don't we don't see the Falcons playing a lot of

38:37these game environments uh because where they've been and and Pennix has been like up to task to keep these guys afloat. It's it's a very cool dynamic

38:44that Pennix isn't good for fantasy but like he's good to make these dudes good for fantasy.

38:48>> Yeah.

38:50>> Um and the other thing about Penn too is like he's actually been very he's in played in like very cozy conditions. The

38:55Ravens disrupted him a little bit but u when you keep him in a clean pocket like he he'll play point guard like he can he

39:01can rip it. Uh but he is six of 20 passing under pressure this year. But with no Montes sweat uh removing him the

39:07best pass rusher for the Bears, that's a huge plus to keep him clean. Uh and then we can just play through Bejon and uh

39:13Drake London who is anytime he's played with Michael Pennix literally is almost like a proxy of JSN. Like it's crazy to

39:22think so. Like it statistically is. I mean this dude's played 12 career games and he's got 35% target share, 43% area

39:29share, 3.3 yards per out run. He's just kind of missing the touchdown equity. Um but he hasn't had one yet and he if you

39:36keep getting the type of usage that he's getting, you'll get some touchdown.

39:39They're gonna come eventually.

39:41>> Yeah. I mean, London is it's Penn is so huge for him because he locks on to him, but also like so his eight outs to start

39:48the year were 8.7 and 4.8 and then 9.6, 10.7, and 12.6. And then yeah, I mean targets per out runs of 35, 29, 26,

39:57yards per out runs of 7.46, 46, 4.57, and 3.03. So, he's just been awesome in every game. And, and this goes back to

40:06last year where they had a nice connection. Um, and so, yeah, I mean, London is another guy considered for the the cover boy here because he he's in a

40:16really nice spot. I think clearly the engine of the passing game. And when you look at Penn, what you know what he's

40:24doing well, he's getting the ball up very quickly. He's executing the first read at a very high rate and he's not

40:31allowing pressure. He's not been good under pressure, but like this is, >> you know, he's, you think about Penn having this big arm and he does have a

40:39big arm, but he's playing in a way where it's like getting the ball out quickly and on time.

40:44>> And a lot of that is to London. London has a first read target rate of 23% which is an elite mark. So, the offense

40:51very much built around him and not in a way where it's like let's get the ball out super shallow. they're actually able

40:57to get him, you know, downfield targets um as he's he's the dominant target in the offense. So, it it sets up very

41:04nicely for London. I noted Kyle Pittz since Penn has taken over, he's had a dots of 4.5, 2.7, and 4.8. So, he's not

41:13really a part of anything fun going on.

41:15He kind of looks like a bit of a checkdown. Um, not real interested in pits this week, but yeah, London and

41:22Robinson kind of the it's like kind of an alpha game here I think for the Falcons.

41:28>> Yeah, >> I got one more uh awesome note for for London here is uh the Bears have been getting absolutely killed on and the

41:35Packers did this to them last week. Uh throw teams that throw out a multiple tight end sets. Uh they opponents against them have completed 78% of their

41:43passes, 28 of 36. Uh they're 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed, 31st uh in explosive play rate allowed uh in

41:52plays that go for a first down or touchdown. And on those plays, because the Falcons do this, this is Stfansky staple. That's why it matters here. Um

42:00they are seventh in pass rate out of 12 personnel and they are fifth in pass rate out of 13 personnel. And Drake

42:07London on those plays, 39% target share, 5.6 yards per out run.

42:13>> Wow.

42:15Yeah, it's >> also Jaylen Johnson has allowed 300 yards in coverage this year >> and got ran over by Marshon Lloyd which

42:23is probably worse. I think it's the worst of them.

42:25>> That is wor That's way worse. That's way worse.

42:29>> Did you see that? That touchdown Marshall.

42:31>> Yeah, I saw. Yeah.

42:33>> Earth.

42:34>> Well, we were noting that Lloyd can actually uh you know that's like the one thing he does. He's not going to like

42:40avoid you, but he'll he'll just like he's athletic enough to do that. Um, another note on London actually that I had is that he is probably going to face

42:48a decent amount of man coverage this this week. Bears are second in man coverage rate. He's 5.9 yards 5.59 yards per route run against man coverage uh as

42:59well. So number of reasons here to be pretty optimistic on Drake London. Um the only thing I would say kind of my

43:10concern would be the Falcons have had pass rates with Penn over the last three weeks of 41 41 and 62%. All of those

43:21have been below expected. Um they've had pros of -5 - 8 and minus 2. So they are still really trying to establish it.

43:31Bejan Robinson's in a great matchup. You have the Bears on the other side maybe being run heavy. So, and then if like

43:36Caleb Williams hamstring isn't fully right, you know, this game could get kind of sloggy, um, you need I think you're you're kind of counting on the

43:45Bears to push the Falcons here to have enough passing volume because this is one of those games where like Drake London has like 16 points and a 34%

43:55target share kind of kind of vibes. Do you know what I mean? Like there's there's that kind of downside to it.

44:00Like I I'm pretty confident that London's going to get his, but you know, how much is there really to get unless

44:06these teams push each other? So that could happen. Like as we talked about, the Bears have a lot of upside, but I'm

44:12a little bit nervous about the Falcon.

44:14Like I'm more nervous about the Falcons than I am about the Giants when we talk about, you know, kind of like it's on

44:19incumbent on the Saints to push the Giants. I think it is to a degree, but I think it's more incumbent on the Bears

44:25to push the Falcons this week.

44:26>> Yeah. I mean, that happened two weeks ago against the Saints where he had the five for 96 on six targets.

44:31>> Yep. Yep. All right. Jets at Patriots.

44:36Uh, let's start with the Patriots. It's It's a little more fun. Drake May, man.

44:40>> Fun for you.

44:41>> Yeah, it's been fun. We're back. We're back, dude. Drake May just dropping D.

44:48Drake May just like the film people going nuts. The fil The film people acting like >> the deep ball. Yeah, the deep ball, the

44:56the floating. He just like, you know, that that one he puts over the cornerback where it just like it just like drops like, you know, I don't know

45:04how how he quite does it. It's my favorite Drake May throw where it just kind of floats down into the bucket. Um,

45:11so yeah, man, it was all it was all there. Uh, but you know, kind of in a classic Patriots fashion as as we were

45:18thinking maybe wouldn't be the case this year, it was last year and it still is the case. It's kind of going to random

45:23guys. you know, we don't have AJ Brown.

45:25We We'll talk about it. We We might have AJ Brown this week, but we haven't had him this uh to this point. And we were

45:32looking at, you know, oh, Drake May is back. So, Romeo Dobs then, no, he had 2.6 points, 0.44 yards per hour. Oh,

45:40okay. So, you know, Matt Collins, oh, he's on IR. You know, Kyle Williams is going nuts. He's barely running any routes. He had 37% route participation

45:50last year, last week, sorry. Um, but 6.50 yards per run. Scores 18.1 points.

45:56And then Eftton Chisum was a 2.04 yards per hour run. These guys were were cooking and are the best guys that the

46:05Patriots have against man coverage this year. Chisum, I noted, 74% round participation last week. So, he was actually playing a good amount. And, uh,

46:16they now get a Jets defense that's playing a lot of man. uh they they're playing the eighth highest rate of man

46:22coverage still like 22% so it's not like they're constantly playing man and and Dos who's been pretty terrible against man you know that that's a good note for

46:30him but but Chisum I think you know we'll talk about Brown but but if Chisum plays I'm kind of like intrigued by him

46:37as like a kind of a dark I've got some like dynasty leagues where you got to start five receivers and I've got guys

46:42on buys I'm like I think I might start chis >> um but yeah give me your thoughts on well let's talk about the let's talk

46:49about um the big names on the Patriots side, Will Campbell and AJ Brown and whether or not they're going to play.

46:56>> Yeah, I don't think Will Campbell's expected to play, right? But that >> he was he was kind of making they were

47:01making noises that he might play yesterday.

47:03>> But Lomu stepped in. Obviously, they they used a luxury pick kind of on on Lomu. They were kind of like, "Hey,

47:08Morgan Moses is older. Uh what if Will Campbell do we do eventually need to move him into guard?" Right? Like they

47:13they kind of like built in this out like this. So, you know, four weeks in this, five weeks in the season, you know,

47:18Campbell gets banged up. Lommo has to come in. Uh Drake May uh had a clean pocket on a season high 50% of his drop

47:24backs last week, which was nice. Uh they've also like they've played they've been playing Ben Brown at right guard who hasn't really like played well, but

47:32just a lot better than what they were getting out of the two guys that stepped in for Mike Anwenu when he got hurt and

47:37Greg Van Roten and Walter Rouse. So, the offensive line has like started to figure some pieces out too as well.

47:43>> Campbell's been limited. I I don't see a report today, but they were they were saying he might actually play. It was

47:48supposed to be a multi-week injury originally, but >> Yeah, that's originally. Yeah, that's I thought Lommo only allowed one pressure on 29.

47:53>> Lom's played well. Yeah.

47:55>> So, >> and if you anytime even before these last two weeks, the blowup spots for Drake May, anytime he's been clean this

48:03year from a clean pot, he's he's actually been really good even from weeks one through four without pressure.

48:08I mean, he was 76% completion rate, which was QB 15 and QB12 in yards per pass attempt. Like a lot of the issues

48:14the Patriots were having were the pressures and the turnovers. Like the >> turnovers were killer. Yeah.

48:19>> And and the Jets like they don't haven't had a Well, we're trying to figure out what the hell this Jets defense is.

48:25Anyways, they've been so up and down this year based on opponent. They only have two games. They have high pressure rates and it makes sense against they're

48:33against Deshun Watson and Cam Ward. Uh like two guys that will hold the football a little bit. And then when you

48:38look at like the rates, they had a 27% rate against the Lions, a 25% rate against the Packers, 27 rate against the

48:45Bears, uh which was uh Beent. Um so they're not a team >> cook them though. That's the thing.

48:52Cooked them. Beijing cooked them.

48:54>> I think the guy if you play if you get rid of the ball against them, I think you're you're largely going to be

48:59successful because when the Jets haven't gotten pressure, and this is including Watson and Cam Moore and all the dudes, I mean they're 21st in rating allowed.

49:06They've allowed a 72% completion rate.

49:08They have zero interceptions, six touchdowns allowed. Uh so >> do they still not have an interception?

49:13>> They have one. They're just not one.

49:15They have one that the a pressure. Uh so but yeah, >> that was the Beijing. Be agent did break that one, too.

49:21>> Oh, Beent ruined it. Come on.

49:23>> Yeah, Beige ruined. And then also too, the Jets have been pretty static. Like they haven't changed their defensive approach week to week. That's the other

49:28thing I look at for a lot of this stuff when it's incorporated because sometimes you'll see these like when we talk about

49:33coverage stuff and one of the misuses is like you know well what if they just don't do it here right like a team like

49:39the Cowboys are like that like like teams adjust to how they play the Cowboys like they don't stay in their defense right but I'm always looking for

49:46these defenses that just stay in what they do and they haven't changed things like these first five weeks your opponents the Jets are one like they

49:51haven't really adjusted anything they've done based on opponent they're just kind of running their defense and they're they're playing too high uh 62% of time.

50:00It's the fifth highest rate in the league. And this season, Drake May includes everything, even the bad stuff.

50:04Uh 72% completion rate, 10 yards for pass to second in the NFL. So, um there was like a narrative going this year

50:12that like, you know, play cover six against Drake May and do those things like he's actually been really good against those this year. Uh those

50:17coverages. Um the real thing with him was really just pressure and turnovers.

50:21If you keep him clean, like you know, he's going to still perform.

50:25>> Yeah. I mean, so he's the the Patriots are 27th in pressure rate this year and 24th in quick pressure rate. And I do

50:34worry about Lomu. I mean, he played well last week, but uh you know, he's a rookie.

50:40>> It's he wasn't like seemed to me I I you know, I didn't do it do a lot of work on

50:46on Lomu coming out.

50:47>> I'm not an offensive line scout.

50:49>> I'm not an offensive line scout, >> but it didn't seem like people loved the pick. There was kind of some skepticism

50:55about it. So, you know, I could see it there being like he's a low floor uh type of type of switch there where Will

51:04Campbell, you know, probably overdrafted where they took him and maybe he would be a better guard than a tackle, but he's

51:12like kind of holding it down pretty pretty decently. So, um, yeah, it would be a lot better, I think, if Campbell

51:19can play and then if AJ Brown can play, um, that would that would have a pretty big impact because you do have Brown's

51:28ability to beat man here being pretty interesting. Um, and you know that like Dobs has not Dobs ran all the routes

51:35last week, 95% round participation, but just hasn't been that great. He's 1.52 yards per route run and the Patriots kind of seem ambivalent about him. Like

51:46I think they kind of like him as like a guy like to have him in the mix, but Dobs is your go-to receiver. They don't

51:54really seem that keen on. Um he has just 10% first read target rate, which is 30th percentile. So it's not like he's

52:01really been a huge part of the game plan so far. Um Chisum has a 19% when he's on the field.

52:08they've really looked for him. So, um, like with with Dobs and without Brown, I again I kind of am intrigued a little

52:17bit by Chisum here, um, as someone who they might be like as interested in ultimately as Dopps, the coaching staff, not the not the GM, I guess, because

52:28they're, uh, which I which I suppose kind of is varable, but, you know, they gave him a ton of money, but it it seems

52:34like when it comes down to Josh McDaniel, they're not particularly interested in feeding Dobs and I don't think this matchup is

52:41is that great for him specifically. So thoughts on this wide receiver core here?

52:46>> I I think it well if Brown plays uh you know I think we'll see Dobs kind of be back into like the that rotation too

52:53anyways.

52:54>> Yeah, >> he won't even be he won't be back up into that. That's what we kind of always projected for Brown anyways.

52:59>> And then they can kind of mix and match what they want to do with the other receivers. I think that's what they want

53:04to do. It's what they did last year.

53:05Yeah. Um, you know, so I just think that's part of the offense and then you have guys making plays and you know the

53:12one thing about the Patriots though is if you are making plays they will give you more opportunities. Like that's how the staff has always operated. So if

53:18Chisum's going to keep making plays I think he'll keep extending his role as well. So he's a guy I think if if Brown

53:24is out you're more interested obviously.

53:26>> Oh way way more interested. If Brown is in I don't I I lose interest because one I'm not 100% sure that the 74%

53:34participation holds. like he was at 43% against the Bills. That that could drop back down.

53:39>> And then the other thing is that Demario Douglas is still involved. He was at 50% participation against the Bills above

53:44Chisum and then 55% last week, so below.

53:48And but he's like glued to the slot. So if you have Brown, you're losing outside routes. So now Dobs and Chisum are

53:55probably like more splitting that role.

53:57Douglas is still going to be involved as the slot guy. Then you also have Eli Raridan who had 45% round participation

54:03against the Bills and then up to 50% against the Raiders which which impacted Hunter Henry. He dropped to 61% route participation. And when you look at the

54:13blocking metrics, Henry's been better than Rarin as a run blocker. Raridan's really out there to catch the ball. He's at 1.91 yards per outr run this year to

54:21Henry's 1.45.

54:23Uh they both have 15% targets per outr run. So Raridan is is kind of an extra weapon they're putting out on the field

54:31and allows them, you know, to kind of be more versatile, but kind of there's like a lot of bodies here. So if there's if

54:38AJ Brown joins, then I'm I'd be interested in AJ Brown, >> but um I I think it would just make everyone it just make the whole thing

54:47more crowded, including Hunter Henry.

54:48I'm starting to get nervous about Hunter Henry and his playing time because Raren looks like he can play and yeah, they're

54:54going to play some 12 and I think Henry will probably like he'll be at 50% round participation even if it gets kind of

55:00bad, but it's kind of like the the Evan Ingramification of of Hunter Henry seems to be happening.

55:06>> Well, it's uh No, it's it's we're seeing this a little bit with Tucker Craft, too. And it's it's to help the offensive

55:10line. You know, Packers aren't on this.

55:12We're not going to talk about the Packers show, but the Packers have leaned into this last two weeks. I talked about it last week. Uh Hunter

55:17Henry uh he had seven pass blocking snaps last week.

55:20>> So like he's playing the snaps are there. The route participation is just he's not running the routes. Uh they're using him as kind of a

55:29part of the offensive line and the protection uh to help out with this too.

55:33So yeah. Um that was one note that I had. Yeah.

55:36>> Yeah. I mean >> that's not very an angry me then. Yeah.

55:38>> It's great for Drake May.

55:40>> Yeah. It's great for Drake May. That's f I'm fine with I mean, listen, if we have to sacrifice Hunter Henry to have Drake

55:45May, I know what I'm choosing. I know what I'm choosing every time.

55:50And he got his touchdown still. Hey, so be it. Like, >> thanks for blocking, brother. I've got you. Like, but yeah, but that's the

55:58Hunter Henry experience, you know, the last few basically his whole career. So, like he's always just been a touchdown dependent player anyway. So,

56:06>> he was a little bit more of like a go-to guy over the middle last year than he than he's been this year. Um, and maybe

56:13that'll return some because Hollands has sort of taken some of that role, but yeah, it's it's been I mean, it's a 13%

56:20target share. It's not nothing, but >> I'm just so fascinated by this era of the NFL, like what's going on with tight

56:26ends. I don't know why like it's just it's just crazy, man. It's like everything revolves around these dudes.

56:30Like the way all It's crazy, dude.

56:32>> Well, in a way, it's because they don't they don't cost that much money. So, it's like how do we get better players

56:37on the roster, you know, within the salary cap? Uh um the other big name that we should mention that might play is Trivia

56:47Henderson. Um it looked like he was going to be out multiple weeks, but then he's been practicing. So my read on it

56:55has been if Henderson goes, it's it's kind of like the Brown thing where it's like now this is muddled, but unlike the

57:02Brown thing, it's not like I'm super excited to play that guy. You know, I'd be I'd be pretty it'd be pretty fun to

57:07have AJ Brown back. If Henderson's back, it's not as fun. He hasn't run that great. This is more of a matchup where I

57:15want one running back to consolidate.

57:17And it looks like Stevenson would do that for us.

57:20>> So, Stevenson's kind of he's like an RB1, maybe a low-end RB1, but he's he's a pretty nice play if Henderson's out.

57:28>> But if Henderson's in, I think you're looking at kind of Stevenson as an RB2.

57:32Stevenson has that receiving role. He's got a 13% target share to just 3% for Henderson. And he, you know, he's he's

57:39used at the goal line some. So, he's he actually is a guy who we can count on for high value touches. Henderson kind

57:46of the more lowv value touch rushing dependent role. Um, ultimately, it'll be easier to know what to do here if he

57:53sits.

57:54>> Oh, yeah. Easy. I mean, you're catching you'd be catching him as a home favorite uh in in a game we're expecting the

58:00Patriots to score points. I mean with Henderson off the field on Sunday, he Stevenson played 87% of the snaps. Had 13

58:06>> and Cory Ker fumbled.

58:08>> Yeah, he played 13 of 15 back. He had 13 15 back flushes until the fourth quarter of that blowout game. Yeah. And then we

58:14go back to week one with Stevenson or Henderson out. He played 85% of the snaps at 23 touches against the Seahawks.

58:21>> Uh this would be an immensely like more positive outlook for him. Uh, so e he would easily be an RB1 if Henderson's

58:30out. And obviously it gets muddled, but like I still think you could still play him as like an RB2 for the the high

58:35value touches in a game as a home favorite, but we would love Henderson to just, you know, hang out hang out buddy

58:41this week.

58:42>> Yep. Yeah, just get right. Uh, Jet side, it looks like Omar Cooper could be back for this.

58:50>> He will play. They will play. Okay, >> that one I saw he's playing. All right.

58:54So, we don't have to talk about Tim Patrick, which is nice.

58:57>> Adai Mitchell is not playing.

58:59>> Yeah. Um, and then Christian Gonzalez is gonna play.

59:03>> He's playing. Yeah. Which changes all the dynamics of all that.

59:07>> It does. And I Cooper being back is probably I mean, it's hard to know how impactful. He had one really fun target

59:15that he hurt his ankle on. Um, but you know, the whole offense right now with Sadique out, uh, it it was going to go

59:23through Garrett Wilson, but when you look at the Patriots defense, um, like leaving aside Christian Gonzalez, they've played pretty well actually even

59:31without Gonzalez, but you look at the Patriots use of double coverage. Um, because you see when I you look at like,

59:39okay, who is getting double covered on on teams?

59:43A lot of times it's like the X receiver, you know, like the deep threat guy. It's like, yeah, he's getting the safety, you

59:50know, a little extra attention because he's he's running deep, you know, they don't want to give up the explosive. But when you look at who the Patriots have

59:58double covered, they have not just like like the Bills, they didn't really they didn't play they played the Bills without DJ Moore. They didn't really

60:07double cover anyone at high rate.

60:08Steelers didn't bother. Even DK Metaf didn't really see much double coverage, but they they played the Seahawks.

60:14Jackson Smith and Jigo was at a 38% double coverage rate, which is quite high. Parker Washington 40% different type of player. That's a slot receiver.

60:22You know, >> JSN had a season high slot rate in that week one cuz they were trying to get him away from

60:26>> They're trying to get him away from Gonzalez. Yeah. And then Bowowers was at 34%.

60:31So Garrett Wilson is either going to see a lot of Christian Gonzalez or I think he's going to see a lot of double

60:36coverage. Correct. So this this is a pretty tough matchup for Wilson like in seasonl long stuff, you know, >> you're stuck like Yeah.

60:43>> Yeah. But it is it's really tough for me to see Wilson being like a guy you needed to have this week in DFS. This is

60:50this is a pretty rough matchup for him.

60:52Not just because of Gonzalez um but because of you know their their focus on >> structurally. Yeah.

60:58>> Yeah. Yeah.

61:00>> Yeah. Gonzalez comeback's a big deal.

61:03Uh any other notes on the Jets offense?

61:08>> Not really. Uh there's not a lot there's not a lot here to really glom on to this match. Patriots like even with those

61:13guys out, they were still good. They've been just they're just a good defense.

61:16They were good defense last year.

61:17There's just it's just real it's real hard to lean into like the upside angle for the Jets. Uh you know, obviously you

61:22can play Brillin Allen as like a volume based like RB2 type dude. Uh because the Patriots if they have one kind of flaw

61:28this year is like they've been worse against the run than they were last year. So you continue to throw him out.

61:33We've continued just to see no Isaiah Davis. So it's just been all Brilen Allen.

61:39>> Yep. 86% of snaps last week. I I agree.

61:42Just pure backfield consolidation, but I think you can count on that.

61:46>> Mhm.

61:47>> Um All right. Next game we have is the Titans at Colts. Um Robert Salah asked again if he's going

61:59to bench Cam Ward.

62:01He's been asked twice through five games.

62:04>> It's going well.

62:07>> It's going bad, dude.

62:09>> You think Robert Sal is happy to be coaching again? Like head coaching?

62:12>> No, not anymore. I mean, I'm sure he was at one point. I'm sure he talked himself into this, you know, but god damn, dude.

62:21That's bleak.

62:25I mean, >> this this game was so it hurt so high hard. It was so hard to write up. So, Colts are 30th in EPA as passing

62:32offense. Titans 31st.

62:34>> Uh, Titans have conver 31st and third down conversion rate. Uh, you know, Colts are Colts are last and third and

62:43long conversion rate. Uh, that neither team takes the ball away. They're their 31st and 32nd takeaways as defenses.

62:50It's just like, oh man, these teams, they're terrible right now.

62:53>> They're terrible. And then you also have um the Titans. I was a I was hopeful, maybe not truly optimistic, but I was

63:03hopeful that the Titans would pass a lot. Now, to their credit, I guess they passed 73% of the time last week. That

63:11was 1% above expected. They were they were at 5% pass rate over expected on first and 10. And then against the

63:18Ravens, they were uh they had a 65% pass rate, pretty close to their expected rate, and they were at 0% on

63:25first and 10. So, the last two weeks they haven't gone super conservative.

63:30They were really conservative a few weeks ago against the Eagles, though, that was a game, you know, they they felt like they had a chance to win that

63:37game. They're kind of trying to grind it out, limit possessions, but they dropped to a 48% pass rate. Uh 20% below

63:44expected >> against the Giants in the rain. They were at minus 12% minus 16% on first and 10. So, the Titans, I don't want to say that they're

63:54like committed to hiding the passing game, but they definitely will do it under the right circumstances. Um, there is some upside though for them to kind

64:04of play to a high expected pass rate script. So, it really kind of comes down to which, you know, how how is Brian

64:12Dball feeling today? How's the weather?

64:15you know, is he is he willing to kind of just throw Cam Ward out there and and see what happens? I I kind of think this

64:23could be one of those matchups. And mostly I care because Carnell Tate looks pretty good. He's at 1.78 yards per route run. Uh he's 74th percentile in

64:34open score. You know, he he's he's a good receiver. I would like to see him have passing volume. Um of course, you

64:42do have Sauce Gardner here, Travarius Ward. So Wandel Robinson out of the slot has the easier matchup. But >> Titans passing volume, you know, we kind

64:51of need to get the right version of the Titans. But that's that's one note of optimism here is that, you know, they

64:58have had high pass rates at points this year.

65:01>> Yeah, this game again just like just such like a almost a mirror match even though the line doesn't show that. You

65:07know, it's a you know, Colts are big home favorites. But Ward has a 1.9% touchdown rate. that's ahead of only Daniel Jones and Malik Willis. Uh so

65:15like all like Cam Ward and Daniel Jones are like they're like next to each other in like a lot of places and you know

65:22obviously they're facing each other in this matchup. Um Colts are are interesting because like they they've been awesome on the outside like they

65:29they they play a lot of man coverage.

65:30They're pretty consistent. Uh both Ward and Gardner have been really good this year.

65:35>> Yeah. Yeah.

65:35>> Um and it's what it what it's done is it's funneling stuff to the inside and we saw it again last week. Jeremy

65:41Bernard was and Pat Frith were the dudes that were beating him up. So there is some signal that does point to maybe

65:48like and I know begrudgingly, you know, people don't ever want to hear that like it's more of a Well Robinson game.

65:53>> I think it probably is unfortunately >> it probably is. Uh the slot receivers have 50% of the wide receiver catches uh

66:01against the Colts is the third highest share in the league. And there will be some of this for Tate because like you

66:06you always bring it up too like he's not the X. He does move around. He is the Z.

66:09So he gets like a 26% like slot. So he will get some of this >> and that's what we need, you know, him

66:15to cash one in. Um but they Yeah. And not only are they giving up catches to slot receivers, the 30th and catch rate,

66:21they're 30th in yards per target. Like they're giving up pretty good chunk plays to these guys as well. So yeah, unfortunately, but again, if you are one

66:29of these teams that has like Juan Dell and you're to bind, like you >> Oh, this is a great week to start

66:34Wandelle.

66:35>> Yeah, this is kind of a spot for you.

66:37They're they're road dogs like we're like I said like they're going to have to throw a little bit probably. Uh so

66:42yeah, there's some signal there. Like I said, Tate gets some of the piece of it, but it is a spot where I'm a little more

66:47muted on Tate. Like I think the volume's going to be there. I'm still still starting him and all those things is

66:52like as like a wide receiver two, wide receiver three on that edge, >> but um one of those ones where like the

66:57signal does give Wanda a little more juice.

67:00>> I agree. Um, and I I'm pretty, you know, I would like to tell you that that this is a spot to play Tate rather than Wale.

67:08So that, you know, my bias is not not towards the Wandell side of that. But yeah, I mean, I think Wale gets a bit of

67:14a boo. I still like Tate more because he's better, but um I think Wandelle gets a boost relative to kind of your

67:22your baseline expectations. Mhm.

67:24>> Um, and Tate, I don't think it's like a big dock, but it's not, this isn't an ideal spot. Um, >> yeah, we saw last week, too, like, uh,

67:34when you do get the heavy man coverage, like they got a big increase last week because that's what, you know, Deico

67:39Ryan was going to do. Look what I did.

67:41Look what I did against Cale Ward. Like, really, you doubled their basically rate of of man coverage. And >> you're asking Cam Ward to win in the in

67:49that capacity, right? Like, and he's just not right now, >> dude. I was I was watching cuz on the shipcast we you know we have bread zone

67:57up and then we'll kind of like have different games up and I I had eyes on the Titans. No one else was watching the

68:03Titans. And there was a period in that game where he was just getting walloped like every single drop back. He would it

68:10wasn't even just sacks. Like he would he'd get the ball out, but it was like that hit the kind of the the most like

68:16painful quarterback hit where they like they're fully extended and then the dude just like takes them like launches spears them in, you know, into the

68:23chest. You're like blown back by the hit.

68:26>> We're just going to call it the Herbert now. It's just the Herbert.

68:29>> The Herbert. Yeah.

68:30>> Yeah. Like it's he takes six of those a game.

68:35>> Yeah. I mean it was it was br and then of course there were sacks like he was just getting Yeah. So I mean it's it's

68:42rough there. And if I wanted to paint a picture of how this game sucks. I would say I would point to the

68:50run defenses. The Colts they're dead last in EPA allowed per rush. 31st in Dboa, 31st in success rate. And you have

68:58Tony Pard. Tony Pard rush yards over expected. Uh he's he's number one in there in the success rate in that model.

69:06Um he is he's getting more uh yards over expected, you know, on a given run than any other running back in the league.

69:13Now the the expected is probably not like super high as the Titans running back >> like oh man.

69:21>> But in context but in context.

69:23>> Yeah. Congrats, dude. But uh but yeah, I mean he's running pretty well. And so they could you like you mentioned the

69:33Colts are big home favorites, but I think that the Titans are kind of live here, especially if the Colts are pretty

69:38conservative on the other side and can't just like pull away. I think this could feel like giving they're definitely giving the Colts a lot of credit here

69:46from what I've seen from the Colts.

69:48>> Like I think the Colts win, but I I'm not sure it's like really like a a beatdown. And so if it's not, man, it's

69:56just like such a sad situation for the Titans because it's like, well, hopefully they'll just get their asses kicked, you know, like, and then we'll

70:04get volume, but it's like if they're competitive, I I worry about what they look like because they could just run the ball a bunch. And then on the other

70:12side, you look at the Colts, uh, the Titans are pretty bad against the pass.

70:17They have no pass rush. Um, they're they're quite bad in the overall metrics. 31st in DVOA, 27th EPA, 24th success rate. So, you know, you think,

70:26oh, you know, you you pass on the Titans. Nope. Everyone's running on the Titans. 52% pass rate by opponents, a

70:33minus 7% proe, a 4% shift to the run.

70:38This is a true runfunnel. Um, and the the run defense isn't that bad, but it's just not good enough to stop teams from

70:47being like, you can't hang. You know, this is this is a disrespectful runfunnel situation. They're just treating this team like not an NFL team.

70:56And I think with Jonathan Taylor, you know, they they want to get him rolling again. He's been pretty inconsistent, pretty inefficient this year. This to

71:06me, you're a big home favorite. What are you looking to do? Get Taylor going. You know, play your style of football again.

71:13And then when you when you play action off it, when you need Jones to make plays, uh, you know, in a more limited

71:19sample, he should be efficient against the Titans. But I do not I do not see the Colts being aggressive here. I don't

71:24think they really need to be. Um, they probably won't feel that they need to be. And so that's where you you start to

71:32look at maybe the way these offenses are interacting and both are actually pretty conservative potentially, you know, in certain types of game scripts. So that's

71:39where the kind of the downside for this this game where I guess we didn't really need to paint the downside because that

71:47was probably assumed.

71:48>> No, you had it last week even uh against the the Texans and and you know Straoud was efficient in that game, but it it

71:54was still kind of muted overall, you know, um because like they just are like there's nothing to respect the Titans that do offensively. like

72:05>> so you do keep running or you you know and you don't really p like go on the gas against them because you don't

72:10really need to and >> um yeah this is a it's a tricky spot like yeah the the like on the surface

72:17like Taylor hasn't been efficient uh they have issues on the offensive line we've talked about just nobody respects deep ball they cut the the one true king

72:24Darius Sllayton today we we talked about last week it just you know maybe it's just over >> he was just cooked yeah

72:30>> and we got our answer got our answer to that today. Uh but you know, again, with Alec Pierce off the field this year, 38%

72:37success rate as a runner, 3.6 yards per carry, he's been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 50% of his attempts

72:43this season. He's uh all career lows, yards before contact per rush. Um and the Titans are good uh like metrically, but like they face 30 back field runs a

72:53game because no one cares. No one cares.

72:57Like it doesn't matter. Like you said, >> it's just so disrespectful, dude. And typically >> it's like a pretty good run defense.

73:04>> We don't care.

73:07>> Screw it. And when your alternative is to have Daniel Jones drop back the way it's been going that like to this point.

73:12And he hit a couple plays last week which is at least nice to get some momentum moving hopefully in the right

73:17direction. But like he's played awful the largely the whole year. I remind myself that they like easily beat the Commanders because he was so bad in that

73:27game.

73:28>> Mhm. Well, I mean, if Mariota stays in that game, who knows what happens, but that that's what kind of like threw that

73:35one out was like once Marota got hurt, it was like, oh, because they kind of had him on the early ropes because of

73:40the early turnovers.

73:41>> Yeah.

73:42>> Uh, so I was like, oh. But I mean, Taylor still has so much equity. He's a huge home favorite. And we usually get

73:47Taylor in these spots. Like, he's been historically good. Like in his career as a sevenpoint favorite, he averages 24 fantasy points per game. I mean, a lot

73:55of people probably talked about the the metrics all year about like the coming into the season like when they win, when

73:59they lose, how Taylor performs. He's he's he's typically been a front runner uh for for the his arc type, too. Um and

74:07then a lot of people, you know, the in this match, I he had two 30point games against these guys last year. I don't

74:11know if we get there. I just don't know if that version exists right now, but he is a guy that already has three multiple

74:16touchdown games, too. though, if you do get the the breakaway runs that have been kind of more elusive this year than

74:21they have been uh in the past, then that's how you pop off with that huge ceiling.

74:27>> Yeah, agreed. And I mean, the metrics are are pretty bad for for Taylor this year, but >> we also know

74:35>> they're not going to finish this bad.

74:36Yeah, he's a he's a good player.

74:37Sometimes it's like the metrics are telling us talent to a degree, but they're also telling us kind of, you know, the situation that has played out.

74:46And I think >> I think this is more of a situation than a knockout to this point. Like the passing game's been bad. Alec Pier, we

74:54we've talked all year about that just how important Alec Pierce is to this offense.

74:59>> Just the fact that he can wear a uniform.

75:01>> How do you not have if the whole offense is built on like Alec Pierce being able to stretch the deep? I mean, Alec Pierce

75:09is not a generational field stretcher.

75:11You you can't have like another fast guy on the roster. Like, nope, they don't.

75:16It's Keenan Allen. It's Well, they got Downs caught a long one last week. And hey, Tyler Warren 9.9 yards last week.

75:25>> Yeah, >> that Oh, hey, baby. You had an hour cooking.

75:32>> Yeah. I mean, uh, highest AOT of the year. Uh, he's had one negative AOT this season, so, you know, not a super high

75:41bar, but 9.9 A dot. Um >> almost half of his targets were 10 or more yards downfield last week and before it was 44%. Uh so four of nine uh

75:52but before that 14.8% coming into last week. So I think they're starting to realize they have to attack downfield if anyone's going to respect like Jonathan

76:01Taylor or like you know like Daniel Jones that is like you know getting to loosen up Jonathan Taylor.

76:08>> And I would note Josh DS a dot last week of 16.5. So, they are trying to push it a little bit further down.

76:15>> They have to. And I mean, I we should emphasize here that the the the um the Titans defense against the pass like

76:23>> they are dead last in quick pressure rate. They're second worst in pressure rate. Uh they're 31st in passing DVOA, 27th in EPA, 24th in drop back success

76:32rates. So, I do think that the Colts are going to be pretty runheavy here um and really lean on on Taylor. That's that

76:41would make sense given what we know about them and their situation and how they've played in the past, but it would

76:46also make sense based on how everyone's playing the Titans as we've discussed.

76:50However, there should be some efficiency. And I like Tyler Warren here. I think he's he's an interesting way to play it um through the passing

76:57game where, you know, you get the the tight end always helpful. The bar is a little bit lower for what we're looking

77:01for there. Coming off a 21.4 PPR outing last week and a 23% targets per out run.

77:08An efficient game as well. So he's I mean his target share for the season is at 22%. Um his per target efficiency has

77:15been really poor. So he's a little bit of a positive aggression candidate in that regard. Um I do think he is he is

77:21someone you know worth considering pretty strongly in this game. Uh even outside of of Jonathan Taylor. But but Taylor is probably just going to be a

77:29hammer here if the Colts unless you know it doesn't go the way the Colts are hoping. Um but it probably will.

77:39And and and we just touching to like if you're in because you know people are in some spots this week. Uh um Keenan Allan

77:46Allen's probably playable too in this one too. Just nine targets in each of his past two games. Uh the if you are

77:52going to get efficiency like if they are do throw a little bit more too and we're they are a team that's going to offer

77:57pass efficiency. Um so >> yeah he's any anytime you get excited about Keenan Allen and Wando Robinson >> in the same game.

78:07>> Yeah.

78:08Even they know the byweeks have hit.

78:10>> Fire this one up on red zone >> for Oh my god. You're going to need You're going to need to put this. It has

78:15to be in the quad box if you want to see any of it because red zone's going to like they're going to cut to the there

78:19there's a chance that we don't see a single play because the touchdown montage could be empty. Might not be a touchdown.

78:28Uh Keenan Allen. I would I I did say, you know, there are some kind of positive aggression elements to his profile. He's at a 5.0 yards per target,

78:36which is horrendous. Um but you know >> yards per target's generally not super sticky, pretty random. Um mostly just correlated with with your average depth

78:45of target.

78:46>> Uh but Allen is also second percentile in open score and there is kind of a he looks pretty washed element to to the

78:55thing. But um yeah 20 uh 21% target share, 22% first read target rate.

79:05He will he will get some volume. I think I'm with you. He could be a fill in.

79:08>> Yeah, he's like a fill in dude. Uh wide receiver four like you know floor type dude, but he he gets he continues to get

79:15money targets third downs and and red zone cuz that's the one thing with down so far and we've only had like he's got

79:21one end zone target so far >> and that's the one thing we were kind of at least worried about with Downs even

79:26taking a jump was like are we going to get any touchdowns that come here?

79:31The other thing with Downs, he had a 60% double coverage rate last week and he was at 55% against the Texans.

79:39>> Uh >> he's the only guy you have a double cover.

79:42>> Yeah, it's it's the defense is like beat us with anyone other than Josh DS and uh >> and I get there's some disappointment

79:49with with DS from like people. They're like, "Oh, everyone always says it's a you know, DS is going to break out." But

79:53like >> I he's clearly like drawing attention and they're trying to feature him. It's just one the the offense is poor. Daniel

80:01Jones isn't playing well, but like and not having Pierce has been huge for him, but like his like expected opportunity is still like really solid. Um,

80:10>> and I like hasn't run like you haven't had the run out like hasn't been like a he's not breaking the bank of like ADP

80:15value, but like I don't think he's been like a terrible pick either though to this point.

80:20>> Yeah, I think the guys in some ways I think the guys who have become kind of most controversial are the players who

80:24are like pretty good. But he's not amazing, >> right?

80:28>> You know, but it's like, hey, no, he's pretty good. Well, the situation kind of went against him and now it looks like

80:33he sucks. But like he's still I still think he's pretty good, >> right? Yeah. Well, you told me he was a

80:40golden ticket.

80:41>> Well, he could have been if everything went right.

80:43>> Everything went right.

80:44>> But it didn't.

80:45>> And now you can probably drop him.

80:51>> Uh, Panthers at Eagles. It's Tanner McKe season.

80:57What what are your thoughts on this?

80:59>> Kind of unique spot here, right? Like uh the Eagles have just been down so bad, but also like they've been

81:07>> so bad.

81:08>> They've been so bad that could it be better while not being good still.

81:12>> My writeup was like basically boiled down to the Eagles are down bad and then I found out Jaylen Herz was out. Yeah,

81:22>> this is this is a rough situation, man.

81:26>> It's real bad. But also like this could be one of those situations too that could be you you would hate for this to

81:33happen to a guy like Jayen Herz like in this capacity because of this injury where we might not see we don't who

81:37knows when we'll see him again. Um >> he might be done for the year depending on the blood thinner situation. But this

81:43also is a because of the archetype of quarterback Tanner McKe is like Jacobe Brassette last year and I know like I'm

81:50talking about Jacob Brassette like the first month after he took out over for Kyler Murray. We might see one of those

81:55situations cuz people forget like the end of the year version of the Cardinals where it was just like Helter Skelter like all their guys were hurt and Jacob

82:02Brassette was throwing 50 times. But do you remember that first month they took over and Kyler like wasn't playing under center. They were using no play action

82:11and they almost went into the Indianapolis and beat the Colts. They gave the Packers a hell game. They just mopped the Cowboys and then all their

82:18dudes are and it all fell apart. We might have one of those situations because the Eagles defense the past two weeks has been still awesome against the

82:26Jaguars and the Rams. And now what if we do start to see them playing more under center, playing more play action, and

82:34throwing over the middle of the field?

82:35Like you got to be at least having your ears at least like hey this this Yeah, they're perked.

82:41>> He might help Mai Lemon. Uh >> I don't think he can hurt Mai Lemon.

82:46>> That's this is kind of my point drawing this back to Kyler of last year is this offense is has like it it could always

82:53be worse. Like he could be Cooper Rush level bad. Like it could always worse, but also it's so bad that like it could

83:00incrementally be better and the defense is good. So, like what if like they start to play some of this like games

83:07where like cuz they're like I'm not excited about Tanner RK and playing level like what if he the defense is good and he just plays functional

83:14offense like >> that sounds pretty nice right now.

83:18>> Like it's it's a potential path here. Um and it's really the only thing we can sell ourselves at this point. But

83:25>> McKe's only had 97 dropbacks. Um, over his career, he's at 3.3 EPA per game, which is quarterback 22 in a pretty big

83:34sample of quarterbacks dating back to the start of 2023. He's quarterback 15 in that span in EPA per play.

83:42>> So, he's been like pretty good in very limited action, 50% success rate.

83:47>> Starts.

83:49>> Yeah. Two week 18 starts. One I think went really well and one not did not go well.

83:54Yeah. But um you know he's been like you could showcase this guy and he could look terrible. There's a lot of terrible

84:03backups out there. So that's like something. Um he's like his efficiency uh on the on the chart I have here. It's

84:11like he's reasonably close to like Marcus Mariota.

84:14He's above Mitch Travisky but not by a ton. He's above Mason Rudolph but not by a ton. So, you know, I I'm not like

84:21super optimistic on McKe, but I tend to agree with you that he could be someone who I mean, maybe Case Keenum would be a

84:29comp where it's like, hey, we're seeing what the offense is supposed to look like now where with Jaylen Herz, we weren't really. The The issue that I

84:37have though with with being optimistic is that the offensive line >> Yeah.

84:42>> is just really concerning. Um, obviously, you know, Lane Johnson's gone, Cam Jurgens traded to the Ravens.

84:50Then you have new center Drew Kendall's dealing with a knee injury and may miss the game. Uh, Landon Dickerson is is on

84:57IR and has started practicing, but it doesn't seem like he's going to be ready to go. So, you have an offensive line

85:04that once was like a true strength.

85:06This, you know, you build through the trenches, that's how you win a Super Bowl. That whole that whole narrative around the Eagles,

85:13that's gone. you know, this is a liability now. Um, and so I I'm a little bit concerned there. Um, you did have

85:22with McKe, he has a much faster time to throw in his limited sample than hurts.

85:25And I think time to throw is like, you know, there's a an element of that that's kind of to the quarterback,

85:30right? Like that's it's a stylistic thing. Um, it can fluctuate obviously, but there is a stylistic element to it.

85:37And Jaylen Herz at 3.10 10 seconds with a 46% pressure rate just like hanging on to the ball and getting pressured

85:44constantly. I think McKe could at least get the ball out, you know, on and more in rhythm, which would help mitigate the

85:52offensive line issues to to a degree.

85:54So, you know, that you can kind of take the optimistic view of it that way. The pessimistic view is you have a backup

86:02quarterback with less than 100 career dropbacks and you're putting behind a pretty bad offensive line actually. And the Panthers are third in quick pressure

86:10rate and fifth in pressure rate and they're blitzing at the fifth highest rate. So you have kind of the there's a

86:16high the the floor is like this dude is just discombobulated as hell. Like we're not seeing at all what this offense is

86:22supposed to look like because this guy's panicking back there. He's getting pressure.

86:26>> Yeah. We've got them coming back from London not taking a buy. Panthers are off a buy. Uh that's not a situation

86:33that really plays out very often. Well, they prepared for for Herz, you know, this whole time.

86:37>> They still are out there. Two starting quarterbacks. There's no Mike Jackson.

86:40There's no JC Horn still. Uh those guys are on IR. It looks like Devonte Smith is going to try. He practiced today, so

86:46like that would be at least a plus having him. Um you're not going to have Saquon. The run game is a non-factor

86:52here anyways. Like these this they can't run. Um and and Carolina's metrics against the run are completely skewed by

87:00week one um against the Bears. But when you look at it, uh, over their past three games, they're eighth in running

87:08back success rate. They are fourth in rate of first down touchdown rate allowed. And they face Bejian Robinson and Jir Gibbs in that sample. Like

87:17Bejian Robinson, 81 total yards. Jir Gibbs 77 total yards. Those are big wins. Those are W's. What do you think Damen Pierce is going to do? Like

87:26>> Panthers on the season are fifth in rushing success rate against. So, they're they're they kind of look like I mean, you know, to your point, like the

87:33week one showing was bad, but they look like kind of a good run defense already, even with that included.

87:39>> Damen Pierce was uh he had minus 19 rush yards over expected last week and an 18% success rate according to NextGen.

87:49>> He had more touches than yards.

87:50>> The worst in the league.

87:52>> That's never what you want out of your running back.

87:56>> It's like not the stat you want it.

88:00That's so brutal. Oh, >> that is awful. He had >> And I don't even see I don't even know who they're calling up. I didn't see it.

88:07Did they elevate anyone? Ian Wheeler, Carson Steel, Jaden Blue.

88:11>> I don't know. Jaden Blue. Maybe I think if two more guys get hurt, they said they're going to bring up Blue.

88:15>> These Jabronies like it's it's it's raw.

88:18Like these are dudes, man. Like the antithesis of dudes.

88:24But like these are dudes that aren't playing in like the the the UFFL or whatever the rocks league is or whatever.

88:32>> Yeah, they're not even getting drafted in the new league.

88:37>> So you have that too. So you have no run game either to insulate Tanner McKe is basically what I'm saying.

88:42>> You have no run game.

88:45However, if we want to if we want to go back to to a little bit of optimism here, I think, you know, the Panthers

88:51have been good and they've been aggressive. You look at Bryce Young, you know, he's been really efficient coming off just an awesome game against the

89:00Lions. 21.6 EPA in that game. That was the best of week four. 52% success rate.

89:06Strong mark there.

89:07>> He's quarterback eight in EPA per game this year at 10.8. that would, you know, if he were to keep that up over the

89:15course of the year, that that would have led the league last year. He probably won't because it's a small sample stat,

89:19but yeah, a really strong start to the season. And then >> when he's been playing well, the Panthers have sometimes gotten pretty

89:27damn aggressive against the Lions.

89:29>> Oh, yeah.

89:29>> 11% pass rate over expected. 18% over expected on first and 10. Against the the uh Falcons when he was playing well

89:36as well, they're 4% and 8%. So we've seen I mean they they could have been real conservative against the Lions at a

89:4355% expected pass rate in that game.

89:45They pass 66% of the time. Canales has been you know over the years someone where my read on him is he wants to win

89:52with the run game and it's been fun to see him actually lean into the pass game when Bryce Young's playing well. The

90:00Eagles defense, yeah, they're good in coverage, but their pass rush has been really bad this year. And uh Jailix Hunt, is Jelix Hunt going to

90:10be out for this game?

90:11>> Uh not seen.

90:12>> He was looking doubtful.

90:15And Jaylen Carter ranks just uh defensive tackle 56 in pressures per snap. So >> he's like a run. He's more good against

90:22the run.

90:22>> Yeah. So it's just like they just don't have the especially if Hunts out then this pass rush is not really a concern.

90:30The Panthers have dealt with pressure.

90:33They have not protected well this year.

90:35Yeah. I mean, they're just down so many linemen.

90:38>> Yeah. But the, you know, this could be a spot for them where that's like a little bit less of a concern. And, you know, if

90:45they're going to if they're going to lean on Young and and let him make plays at this point, I think I trust him to

90:51make plays even against the the Eagles defense as long as they don't get super conservative. So, there's some upside to this game where the Panthers are scoring

90:58points and um you know, you you have them pushing the Eagles where they can't just, you know, kind of get it over

91:08with. Or I mean, they can if they want, but maybe they maybe they fight back. I mean, they might want to see what they

91:13have in McKe, right?

91:16They might. Yeah.

91:18I mean, this is the spot you have no run game, right? Like, you can't count on running the football here. Uh with

91:23Damen, you're you're literally on RB4 and if you got Devonte back, I mean, you at least have playmakers.

91:30>> RB4.

91:31>> Yeah, they I mean, they had plays last week against the Jaguars. Like, plays were on the field.

91:36>> Uh Herz missed Wicks on that one. That would have been a walkable touchdown. I mean, you honestly should have won the

91:41last two games. Like, you probably should have beat the Rams and you should have beat the Jaguars.

91:45>> So, like there you're still doing your part defensively and you have opportunities. That's why I kind of drew that like Cardinals corer and I know

91:51like it fell apart for the Cardinals but like that first month when Buret took over for Kyler. It they were a

91:56competitive team and the Eagles defense is a lot better than the Cardinals defense was from last year uh during that period. So just something to keep

92:04an eye on. But I am very excited about the Panthers in general for all the reasons you said. Like they're you have

92:10to this we talked about I was like this is you you you picked up his fifthear option on this guy. you have to find out

92:15if he could play. Throw him into the fire. And he's he's he's responded.

92:19>> He's been great. He's been great.

92:20>> Yeah, he's responded. And you're getting Coker back uh in this game. Uh who, you know, who essentially basically missed two games because he was active in week

92:28uh three, but they left that game early against the Browns. And he looked awesome the first two weeks of the season when he was healthy. So, you hope

92:35he's full go.

92:36>> He plays in the slot more than McMillan as well. So, this is a better matchup, I think.

92:40>> And and the Eagles have been cooked on the inside this year. That's why they tried to pick up Kenny Moore. Way more

92:45vulnerable inside this year.

92:47>> So, Coker coming um Coker I I would be like pretty excited as like a a DFS upside maybe play and you know getting

92:55back into your lineup regardless. Um >> and not that not to say I'm down on Tet at all like you're going to keep playing

93:01him. It just I think that the matchup I think would favor Coker if he's a full go.

93:07>> I agree. Yeah. I think I have McMillan like a few spots ahead just kind of out of respect for for McMillan what he did.

93:15But I do I do agree. I think the the matchup favors Coker more. Um and then Hubard. I mean the Eagles run defense

93:22hasn't been that great this year and Hubard's going to get fed here. I think uh Trevor is it is it Trevor Achan? Has

93:30he told us?

93:31>> Yeah. Has he has he corrected his >> he corrected? Yeah. Where's >> it universal? Was it you? That's a great

93:37question.

93:38>> It was be it'd be funny if we all started calling Trevor Trevor Achan.

93:40He's like, "It's ETN.

93:42>> It's ETN >> because to be fair, it was a cool nickname when you just did the ETN."

93:48>> Yeah.

93:48>> Yeah.

93:52>> Hubard's what we talked about with like Raandre, right? Like he just stepped in like you when you have the back, he's

93:56like that kind of player. Like you step in.

93:58>> He's been he's been better than that. I mean, he's been really efficient.

94:01>> Soak up volume and be good. It's been more like if Jaylen Warren didn't catch the ball.

94:09Like he writes really well in the rushing metric. So, so he's definitely interesting here. Um McKe, by the way, is 66.

94:18Maybe he can see over the line a little bit more. Maybe we can get Do you have optimism here for uh for Mai Lemon

94:24finally doing something? I mean, I'm not like optim like I would play Devonte Smith if he plays, but like the other

94:29guys I'm like it could still be like low floors, but like I'm at least I'm at least intrigued to just see like are

94:35they >> that's kind of where I'm at.

94:37>> You know, are they going to play under center more? I'm like not bullish on playing really any Eagles for ceiling

94:41here. Like I like I said, I'll play Dvont. If you're playing Dallas, like fine, but like >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

94:46>> I more or less just want to see like what they're trying to do from like a play calling stance with with Tanner

94:51McKe because they're obviously not going to have him run the Jaylen Herz offense.

94:55Um, so like that's what I'm more interested in like do we have an opportunity because even big picture I don't think this is going to turn

95:01anything it's not going to turn Tanner McKe into like a viable fantasy start but can it turn Mai something right?

95:08Yeah. Like those things those are the things you're looking for.

95:11>> Yeah. Gino Smith it up.

95:13>> Yeah. It's a >> All right. Steelers at Buccaneers. Um let's see. Jaylen Daniels played

95:24reasonably well. Um, and I noted uh last week he had basically all of his efficiency was through the air. He scrambled a bit, but

95:35um he actually supported some some passing production. Uh however, you did have the the Buccaneers go pretty runheavy. with a 50% pass rate and

95:46really leaning on on Bucky Irving um who had an incredible game, career-high rushing yards, 72 yard, 22 yard run to seal the game. Looked so good. Um of

95:56course he did lose a one-yard touchdown uh run to um Shawn Tucker and they don't seem to fully realize what they have,

96:05but maybe we're getting closer.

96:06yourself. The Bucky Irving emergence here on on the Buccaneers side is probably the most exciting part of of the Tampa Bay part of this game, I would

96:13say.

96:14>> Yeah. I mean, obviously, this is going to be a little bit different than last Thursday against Dallas. Uh, you know,

96:20the whole the whole dynamic shift. I mean, the Cowboys at this point, there's a re they're like hiring, you know, Mike

96:25Pton to be like a defensive supervisor now for their defensive coordinator. So, like they're not even like firing him, but they're softfiring him. Like,

96:32>> yeah, >> you know, that's how it's gone. Um, so >> usually the Ravens do this. This is kind of the Ravens move, right?

96:40>> And that that's the thing like we're kind of hoping we're coming off of talking about Tanner McKe is that you're

96:44hoping you can have with like Jaylen Daniels. It's obviously the the Panthers are a better defense than the Cowboys, but you're just looking to like have

96:50functional offense that can like keep you in the game against a defense maybe you can just like have a higher success

96:55rate against. And that's like what the Buccaneers plan was last week against the Cowboys. They open I think their first drive was an 11minute drive and it

97:03kind of just like threw that game state into like where they can control it.

97:06They tried to give it away at the end a little bit but uh I don't think yeah >> I don't think they're going to be able

97:11to operate the same manner though here is the problem uh you know against the Steelers. It's not like I'm super bullish on the Steelers defense. I just

97:19think categorically they're in another tier than the Cowboys, >> you know. So, I would I I'm a little

97:29less optimistic about the, you know, Jaylen Daniels and this offense looking as good as it did, but it was cool to

97:36see them like because it looked for like a week like are we going to get back to Bucky Irving being a trapback and it

97:42wasn't like fully there. I mean, he last week he had eight of nine touches in the red zone. He played 71% of the uh the

97:49red zone snaps. He did get banged up with like a shoulder thing for a little bit. Um, but it it was back like he got

97:55some of those again and it looked like we were going to be froze out for a minute. So, it was just good to see it

97:59come back a week just a week after and it was like cool. Like you still understand like he's still the best

98:04player you have. So, we'll probably still see Shawn Tucker randomly pop up and be an [ __ ] to us a few times.

98:11But, I thought it was just really promising that they went right back to him and like he was involved in the red

98:15zone last week uh as opposed to, you know, week four when it was like, oh like here we go. It's never as

98:22clean as like a guy gets everything, you know, unless it's like literally Jamir Gibbs.

98:27>> But like even Bejian Robinson has Brian Robinson sniping him. He had Tyler Algier sniping him. Like it's never totally clean.

98:35>> You just need the guy not to be like boxed out and and it was starting to look like Bucky was straight up boxed

98:41out where he just didn't have access to that role. He's coming off the field in those high lever situations. And then

98:49with Kenneth Gainwell stealing target share, >> it did, you know, you're just like, "Oh god, you know, is this is this going to

98:54just devolve?"

98:56>> And I kind of feel like maybe it could have. Like I think there might be 2026 universes where Buckyy's a pretty

99:02useless trapback through no real fault of his own other than not having as good a game as he just did uh in our

99:09universe. I I think this has to have woken up Zack Robinson a little bit.

99:14>> Um >> hopefully Todd BS as well. Bulls seems like a little he seems to sort of like forget, you know, what his offensive

99:21roster looks like. He's he's designing blitzes, I think. Not really much on what's happening.

99:26>> The prototypical dude to just look at Bucky Irving and look at Shawn Tucker and be like, "You go line."

99:31>> Yeah.

99:31>> Like like, you know, that's exactly it, man.

99:36>> Well, I mean, they, you know, when is Bucky going to be back? Is it sometime in the summer or fall? Like he hasn't

99:41had like real concrete Bucky thoughts.

99:43>> That's true. kind of >> that's what I'm saying. He's familiar with Bucky. Like he understands he's on the roster and stuff, but I think it's

99:50like, hey, this guy might be really good, >> you know? So, >> but I also gives you optimism, too, when Baker comes back and then like,

99:59>> uh, you know, because I mean, Baker played poorly, but I still think we'll see this offense look different than the

100:04Jaylen Daniels experience.

100:07>> Baker played very poorly.

100:08>> I mean, he he but like we've also seen Baker like he's he's a better quarterback than Jaylen Daniels. I at

100:13least feel I agree.

100:17>> So, I do agree.

100:18>> So, that at least helps Bucky, too. I mean, he looked great. He passed eye test. Like, you're probably playing him.

100:22I do think this is probably a spot, though, where I'm less excited about the Bucks just offense in general.

100:30>> That's fair. Yeah, I think I think that's that's totally fair. Would you would you like Are you Bucky or Scataboo?

100:36>> I'd be Bucky still.

100:38>> Yeah, me too. That's I I have him back to back, but with Bucky a hit.

100:41>> I mean, he just looks like the better player right now, too. So like >> yeah um this passing game you know my

100:51optimism for the Bucks really is about hey Bucky looks awesome maybe maybe the offense will be functional enough to feed Bucky but

100:59>> it tough I mean even last week like it wasn't it wasn't great um Achuka had 1.31 yards per route run he scored 17.2

101:08two points, but >> rushing touchdown, >> right? And 31% targets per out run. So, you know, he was clearly a big part of

101:15the offense. The the rest of the passing game, I mean, TZ Johnson and and Ted Hurst are splitting. Chris Godwin is at

101:22uh 1.09 yards per route run. Achabuka is only at 1.14 for the season, but his targets 23% target share to to Godwin's

101:3214%. So, he's >> and they're just asking Daniels to keep everything easy near the line of scrimmage. Yeah.

101:38>> You know, there's no airards on this team the last two weeks like at all.

101:42>> Yeah.

101:44Yeah. So, it's just hard to really have any enthusiasm for for any of these guys. Ibuka, the whole thing's going to

101:50be go through him, but that's like enough to kind of keep him. I think I had him as like a wide receiver three.

101:55It's pretty brutal.

101:57>> Yeah. Yeah. I got him like backand wide receiver three and obviously there's bias and stuff, but >> yeah, I have him backand wide receiver

102:01three.

102:02>> If you He would be a guy though if like you were like I have this guy like are you excited about this guy? Like I'd be

102:06I'd at least entertain questions.

102:10>> I mean, are you playing Wand Del Robinson or Rebecca?

102:12>> Yeah, that's I literally just looked at it. I >> Oh.

102:20Oh, it's so gut-wrenching.

102:23>> It's gut >> because you know what the answer is.

102:29>> God, I'm gonna have to lower him a little.

102:33>> That's That's a rough one. It's just I mean the Steel the Steelers are not a defense that like necessarily is

102:38terrifying, but they're like these are the dudes they eat up like >> you know like they're seventh in passing points allowed per attempt. Dallas was

102:4631st. Like you can you can you can you can do what the Bucks did last Thursday to the Cowboys. I don't think they're

102:52going to do that necessarily here.

102:55>> Yeah. Yeah. What about Jeremy Bernard on the on the other side of this game where you play Jeremy Bernard or Acha Ibuka?

103:02Ooh, I would probably play Bernard.

103:05There's a there's a I mean there's some upside here for the the Steeler. I think there's be some both. This will be

103:10regression for the T because Aaron Rogers is like really cooking on some touchdown equity here right now. Uh these last three games.

103:16>> It's not just regression though. Like they it's like, hey, we're at the one.

103:21What should the play call be?

103:26That is built in to an Aaron Rogers offense. That's a pass.

103:29>> It is true. the you have a big pass funnel defense going against a team willing to to chuck it like so there's

103:36opportunity here. Also, when you look at the this passing game versus the Bucks defense, it it sets up bad for the Bucks

103:44because they are a team that doesn't have a high pressure rate, but it's kind of like a a fugazi pressure rate because teams just

103:52are throwing the ball really quickly against them because they understand what Todd Bolt's going to do. uh like you know they're what they the the

104:00fastest uh time to second fast in the league quarterbacks against them and the three pocket passers they faced Jordan Love and Dak Prescott were number one

104:08those weeks in time to throw Joe Burrow was two and then the other two guys they faced the Shawn Watson and Kyler Murray

104:14guys that tend to hold the ball the Bucks had double digit pressures in those games >> so like like they don't have a a great

104:21pressure rate but it's because like these pocket the pocket dudes understand like what's going on. So I think Rogers, who against the Blitz is, he's 12th in

104:31time to throw against the Blitz right now. Probably be sped up a little bit more here. Ball's coming out quick. You

104:36got no Roman Wilson, you got no Michael Pit Pitman. So guys like uh Bernard, I do think Metaf is kind of interesting

104:43this week, too. But guys like Bernard and Fri get larger lifts. Uh because Fri's another one of those guys is just

104:49a wide receiver. It makes sense that his route participation went nutso last week because he's a wide receiver and they were missing wide receivers. They're out

104:57of wide receivers. They're out of them.

104:58>> I I learned a name uh and I don't even remember the name because I had to learn it. Uh because Ben Scoranic is out. So

105:05Brandon Smith, he's the next man up.

105:08>> UDFA in 2021. He has nine career routes.

105:13He has never been targeted. So I don't think he's going to be super involved here. Darnell Washington has been pretty solid. And then you have Pat Footh kind

105:23of as your slot receiver. And the nice thing about Jeremy Bernard is he's been in the slot. He was at 65% slot rate

105:30last week with Wilson getting hurt, but he doesn't have to be in the slot. So, you know, they can kind of have total

105:37wind sprint cardio routes from Brandon Smith and Bernard can be in the slot, but you can also have Bernard out wide

105:43and get Darnell Washington out on the field more as well. But, I mean, this this offense almost has to be con I

105:49mean, Rogers is like famous. People were telling me I couldn't drop Bernard because he wasn't going to trust Bernard, right? He's not going to trust

105:56Brandon Smith.

105:59This guy's not going to get a single target probably. So, I mean, we're we're looking at a concentrated offense here.

106:05And I I also think that we could have DK Metaf. I mean, he's in a little bit of a boom bust type of setup because I could

106:13like if you're looking at the design of this offense, >> you know, with the Colts and Alex Smith, right? It's nice to have someone

106:18stretching the field. Roman Wilson was helping them do that. He was he was playing mostly out of the slot, but he

106:23had a pretty high A dot.

106:24>> Yeah, >> you know, he he was a D threat for them.

106:27>> That's not really Frimouth. It's not really Washington. I think they kind of need Metaf to stretch the field here.

106:33And >> I'm like Metaf has like >> I I still believe that DK Metaf on certain teams would be really good at

106:42that, but I'm not sure with this version of Aaron Rogers that that is a great role for him, but they might need him in

106:47that role. I like I like him a little bit here too, especially in DFS because Bernard's cheap and gonna be popular.

106:54He's had a really tough, you know, go for his role in this offense, you know, facing Christian Gonzalez, DJ Turner, uh, the Colt Sauce Gardner and Ward who

107:03we talked about, Denzel Ward. Um, he's got a little bit softer of an individual matchup here. We've seen the Bucks give

107:11up big games to like these biggerbodied guys, too. George Pickkins last week, Denzel Boston, uh Christian Watson have a great box score against him, but was

107:18over two yards per out run. T Higgins was just under two yards per out run.

107:22And then Metaf has a 30% target share against the Blitz with over two yards per out run. So, I do kind of like this

107:29spot for Metaf to be involved, you know, um more than we because last week we talked about him just being in a bad

107:36spot because he was going to be going up against Gardner and Ward. it's going to be we were a little bit more into Roman

107:41Wilson and that it kind of was wrong but right in a way but like because you know Fernard went off that was where we

107:48wanted to attack him at least we were we wanted to attack the middle of the field >> um so like we knew that so I do think

107:54it's a little bit better of an outlook for Metaf and it's been the previous month because of just some of the

107:59opponents he's gone against >> that that's totally fair I I would also note you know on the optimistic side is like Aaron Rogers was playing really

108:09poorly through the first two weeks of the season.

108:12>> Minus 12.6 EPA per game over the first two weeks, which was which was quite bad. Quarterback 33. Um >> it was just below Jack Strand, below

108:22Baker Mayfield. Like he was worse than than Mayfield started out and and Mayfield's stuff is just horrendous. You know, it'll improve once he's back, but

108:30it was really rough start for Mayfield.

108:32Um over the last three weeks, Aaron Rogers has been at 7.2 EPA per game.

108:3846% success rate. He's been pretty good.

108:42He's quarterback 17 in EPA per game over that span. You know, over the course of the season, I'd say like the seasonl

108:48long numbers are probably our best bet here. Like he's he's a kind of a mediocre quarterback at this point in his career. He ranks quarterback 32 with

108:56minus.7 EPA per game. I think he's probably going to be uh kind of hit or miss and and frustrating, right? But

109:03what I do like about splitting up that sample, you see like Rogers was kind of like in the unstartable range like that,

109:11you know, in the range where guys get benched if they keep playing like that.

109:14And the Steelers had pass rates of 72 and 70% in those two games. So Mike McCarthy is like truly just passing

109:21through it. And then over the last three weeks with Rogers playing better, they've been at 66% 70 and 64%. And all

109:29of those are either in line or above the uh expected pass rate. Passed 6% over expected against the Bengals. And they

109:38passed uh 6% again over expected against the Colts. That 70% pass rate was right in line with expectations. So, I mean,

109:45they're going to pass a bunch. They they lead the the league with a 69% pass rate. Uh with their 4% pro behind only

109:52the Bengals at 6%. Um and the Bucks still very good against the run. And as you mentioned, probably not as scary for

110:00Rogers, you know, as the the pressure numbers uh or the blitz numbers, I should say, should suggest. I have them.

110:08They they uh in the PFF numbers, they come out to uh 26th in quick pressure rate and 30th in pressure rate. So, like

110:16even with what you're saying, um, you know, I what you're saying of them, this this pressure rate might not fully these

110:24bad pressure rate numbers might not apply when they get a quarterback who holds the ball, >> right?

110:28>> Rogers isn't holding the ball.

110:29>> Yeah. No, >> 2.70 second time to throw. Even even with a pretty good 13% deep pass rate, he's getting the ball out quickly and

110:36he's avoiding pressure. So, um, I think we're going to we're going to see volume on the Steelers side. Uh, and you know,

110:46I I I like Bernard here. I think he could be pretty fun, but that could also help Matt Cap obviously in a in a big

110:51way.

110:51>> Yeah. I mean, I I think all three of those guys from a stance of just raw targets are going to be in a good spot.

110:57>> Um, >> yep.

110:58>> Because of the because of the pass rate over expectation, the pass funnel. Uh, we'll note too like the Bucks aren't a

111:04bad defense either. Like they're like more mid pack in a lot of a lot of metrics. Uh, we saw them like Dak

111:10Prescott didn't have a good game against them. Um, you know, so it's like not too that like all these dudes are going to

111:15hit for ceilings, but just from like a target stance, there's going to be pass volume here. Uh, I do appreciate our boy

111:21Mike McCarthy understanding the assignment now. Remember last week when we came in his quote going into the week with Rico Donald practicing, it's like

111:28this will still be a one-two punch. It was his quote. And now he has said going into this week, Jaylen Warner is our

111:34featured player. So he finally has understood. Now, I will say like Warren has has had a nice run of great defenses

111:42and this one is like a really good run defense, but he can catch the ball and the Bucks will give up receptions

111:48through the air. So, I think just the fact that now he's going to be involved in the featured player because he can

111:53still be efficient against a tough run defense if we have like we're just going to lower our expectations than they were

111:58the couple weeks before this, but um he can catch the ball of the back field and I think he'll be involved as a pass

112:04catcher here too.

112:06>> 100%. Um, yeah. And I think with Warren, he's not like a a volume based play.

112:13He's been incredibly efficient, but this is a tough matchup and and volume >> is pretty important. And I I think they're going to I think we talked about

112:21it last week. I was pessimistic because I thought D was going to play and we were going to get something dumb and

112:26then D sat and Warren opened some eyes.

112:30Well, I think Rogers too, like Rogers, he had that quote on the touchdown, uh, where he got that, you know, he got

112:36credit for the 80 yard touchdown and they asked him, he's like, "Well, I took the hit still." But then he was like,

112:40"Uh, you know what's really cool Aaron Rogers likes though is when you turn his four- yard pass into an 80 yard

112:45touchdown." Uh, so I just think that they they have no choice. Like this dude has 176, 128, 188 total yards. The pass

112:53like you have no choice. Like this.

112:55>> Yeah.

112:58>> This is this is another quote. This is the following day. This is from the OC.

113:02Um on whether Warren has earned more obviously out of necessity. He's played a lot of snaps for us and he's done a

113:08really good job. Certainly we're going to lean on him within the structure of the offense. When his number is called, he's always there. He talked about his

113:15consistency, his approach, kind of went on and on. So I think that yeah, Warren, he's the lead back now. This is the type

113:23of thing that could eventually uh move back into something gross. We saw Dowel actually lose the grip on the Carolina backfield after being absurdly

113:34efficient, you know, um what was against the Cowboys in another game where he just went crazy. Dolphins. Yeah. And and then eventually Chuba Hubard was was the

113:42starter by by the time they were in the playoffs. So it could go against Warren, but I I believe in in Warren to hold off

113:49Dowel at this point.

113:50>> Yeah. Yeah. And even after this, you get a couple of nice runs cuz they this one's tougher from a rushing efficiency

113:55stance. But, you know, like I said, you're hoping that his dual purpose usage shines through here and you you get over receptions, maybe get in the

114:02box, uh, and you get through and then you get Saints next week, Browns before the buy. So, like it's it's a nice

114:07little outlook. I think if you ran into Jaylen Warren, you're feeling as good as you possibly can right now.

114:14>> Love it. All right, Ravens at Browns.

114:16Um, we are not going to get Lamar Jackson back.

114:20>> We We might get um Cam Jurgens who traded for. Oh, he's out. Okay.

114:27>> I saw that one, too. Yeah, >> we What about Jacobe Lane? It was another >> uh I did not see officially. He was

114:33practicing, but I did not see him. I did see that Cam Jurgens uh wasn't going to play.

114:39>> Okay.

114:40>> So, Jacobe Lane's one we got to we got to find. Yeah, >> Jacobe Lane would would definitely be interesting here. Um the Browns defense

114:48has been pretty good this year.

114:50Huntley's been been pretty solid. Uh Zay Flowers, by the way, popped up with uh with an injury yesterday. Um so that's

114:58>> questionable Jacobe Lane listed.

115:00>> Questionable Jacobe Lane. Okay. Do they have Flowers listed?

115:04>> Jacobe Lane though full full Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.

115:07>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

115:08>> That sounds not questionable to me.

115:11>> Yeah. That's you're you're really you're very you like to ask questions if you're I mean that's that's a full go man.

115:20>> Yeah.

115:21>> I say full practice full practice full practice. Questionable.

115:28>> I don't know.

115:28>> Yeah. I think we get lane back. Lane was pretty solid. 19% targets per out run.

115:32He had 55% rap participation that first got dropped in leagues. Man, I would I would pick >> 100%.

115:39because you're gonna get Lamar back next week.

115:42>> Yeah. Um this looks like a tough defense though, man. They got cooked by the Jaguars in week one and they've been

115:50pretty damn good since.

115:52>> Um now the the the quarterbacks they faced haven't been great, but >> Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, Gino Smith all struggled against them and Aaron

116:00Rogers was was okay two weeks ago.

116:06>> What do you add on this this matchup?

116:08Yeah, I mean for Tyler Huntley, you're not like super bullish. They did a they had a good game plan last week. Really

116:13good against the Falcons, right? Who were getting a lot of pressure. Just uh they said we're going to get the ball

116:18out just out of your hands for what was it just 4.7 airs or pass attempt last week. Uh 16% of his passes were 10 or

116:25more yards downfield. Uh by far the lowest at Atlanta. Atlanta got frustrated. They started just like mad blitzing. They had their highest uh

116:33blitz rate of the season. They just couldn't they were they were frustrated.

116:36They couldn't get to him. uh because all the quick passes, but the Browns, you know what they're going to do? Like they

116:41they did that week one, they played no man coverage against Lawrence. I think they respected the Jaguars. They got absolutely shredded and they're like,

116:47"What are we doing?" Like, "Let's at least lose our way." And they've just been hyper aggressive since. I mean, they're just under 50% man coverage rate

116:54since. Um and they've just been really aggressive and like >> which is like twice as high as like the seventh highest team. Like that's like

117:02crazy high. Yeah.

117:03>> And they're getting pressure. Uh they have guys that get pressure. We knew that coming in. They have a couple injuries to monitor here coming in.

117:10Mason Graham and Carson Swinginger ended up still they're questionable here as well. But it's just with Huntley, you're never going to get like this huge drop

117:19back game where he's going to like and that's cut you kind of want to have against the Browns. Like the Rogers

117:24game, right? Is kind of what you want to have because against this aggressive defense like you're not going to success rate them to death. like it's really

117:32hard to but they will give up some explosives because they're so aggressive.

117:36>> Like they will give up big plays and I just don't think Huntley's like the dude to take advantage of that. Like Lamar

117:41absolutely >> would have been like in this match. Like I was when I wrote this game first when we thought Lamar was going to play it

117:48was one of the early games wrote up and I was like, "Oh, this is such a great Z Flower spot." And now I'm kind of like,

117:53"Well, no, kind it's not as great." But >> I just saved this one. This was the last one of the last ones I heard of. So, I'm

118:00not gonna >> Well, I let myself get real excited about Z Flowers and then I got myself worked up into a lather and then I like

118:05it just got teased.

118:06>> This is like third on my list originally and I got to it and I was like, "Nope.

118:11End of the line."

118:12>> See, so some sometimes these ones I try to move up so I could like get it momentum building.

118:17Are you the opposite? You'd rather write up a good game first. I'm like, "Let me do some of these shitty games first."

118:21>> No, no. I I'm down to write the shitty game up. I hate when I have to rewrite the whole thing.

118:25>> Yeah. Fair. when the Tanner McKe one like I was like I'm done and then it's like and Jaylen Herz isn't playing like

118:31oh man >> that happened to me so many times last week with all the injuries midweek. So >> yeah.

118:37>> Uh yeah, I'm with you. I mean I think I think this it's not a particularly appealing matchup for for Flowers. I

118:45kind of the funny thing with Flowers is he has 4.05 yards per out run against man. That's actually worse than his

118:53overall number 4.45.

118:56It's amazing.

118:58>> Yeah. So, he's It doesn't really matter.

119:00He'll He'll get open and he'll be fine.

119:03Uh I did have >> He was still uh B they like they were pumping with targets. It was just like they had been throwing to him downfield

119:10with Lamar and it was all just kind of where we were like the stuff all near the line of scrimmage which he can make

119:15work still and be like a have a good PPR floor. It's just like we were kind of operating like and we still will be of

119:22like oh there's real there's some real juice here >> for sure. I also noted Andrews Mark Andrews they're they're continuing to feed him

119:31uh 23% targets per out run last week.

119:34He's had targets per runs over the course of the year 26 25 38 25 and 23% just consistently involved and he is

119:43tight end one in open score. So, I'm like I think I know it's it's scary with Andrews cuz you know he's an older

119:51player and his per target efficiency sucked and you know he's not been not really delivered but he does look like a

119:58true positive aggression candidate is someone who's like a key piece of an offense ultimately I was like cool I'll keep that in mind when Jackson's back

120:07>> it is it is something worth noting like I could see I could see Andrews kind of ahead of schedule getting Right. Um it's

120:16not a great matchup. Huntley's not here, but like you do have a tight end with a 23% target share, you know, like that

120:21that can lead to some big games.

120:24>> Yeah, 100%. I mean, this this feels like a absolute like Derrick Henry's getting the rock 25 time game. Like >> and the Browns 17th in rushing DVA, 29th

120:35in EPA, 27th in success rate. Uh I'm pretty sure that he's going to get the ball done. They're going they're going

120:42to lean into Derrick Henry. had a minus 5% pass expected last week against the Falcons, minus 10% on first and 10. Um I

120:50I completely agree. This is this is going to be about Derrick Henry for for the Ravens side of things. And and you

120:56had um Deshun Watson turning in a really poor game last week. You know, I don't know how much they're going to be able

121:02to push the Ravens. So, this sets up pretty nicely for Henry to do his thing.

121:07Yeah, the Browns were really kind of coaxing out like a different version of Deshun Watson and it went back to the

121:13what we got. We had week one Deshun Watson again. Like they he'd only taken two sacks in each of the previous three

121:19games. They were just like kind of handholding him. Get the ball out of your hands, man. Like you could, you know, throw some of these quick throws

121:24to the line of scrimmage and like he was really back to just like running around, holding the ball as long as he could

121:30buying time and un uneffectively, right?

121:33like >> yeah cuz he's he's been awful anytime he's like really thrown downfield and uh you know had to like really

121:41extend plays like he wants to he's been a complete disaster. I think they want him to play more like he did weeks two

121:46through if they want to win games like with him. They need him to play like weeks two through four and not like

121:51weeks one through five. Uh, but I don't know if like how consistent like eventually you always see like the the version of the player that we know what

121:58really is the version of the player like get through like last week was a reminder of like this is who he is,

122:05right?

122:06It's funny cuz I was looking, you know, he had he was kind of looking pretty good heading into last week. Um, through

122:15weeks one through four, he's at 5.4 EPA per game, which quarterback 16. Like he he was right near Joe Burrow. moved a

122:22little bit above CJ Strad, just a little bit below Trevor Lawrence. Like he was like pretty pretty good actually. Um, and then he has this horrible week five

122:30game minus 11.1 EPA. And then I, you know, I was looking kind of where he's sitting in the chart comparing him to

122:37previous seasons. And 2024, Russell Wilson jumped out a little bit as a comp. Y >> um Wilson in that season had 1.1 EPA per

122:45game with a 43% success rate. Watson's currently at 2.1 EPA per game with a 45% success rate. So, a little bit better

122:53than Wilson was uh but kind of in this zone on the chart where you have um where you have guys who have not good

123:02success rates. They're inconsistent playtoplay, but the EPA isn't terrible.

123:07It's positive. And so, it's like, yeah, they can kind of deliver some big plays.

123:12They're also delivering big negatives.

123:14And it's like this type just from writing this up over the years like this type of quarterback is going to have

123:19good weeks but is also just going to be really awful sometimes. So that's kind of what I'm like >> Watson really feels like he belongs

123:27where he like in the in the efficiency numbers on Watson I think are kind of giving us right now a pretty clear

123:34picture of what we're going to get the rest of the way where it's like sometimes it's going to be cool, sometimes it's going to really suck. Um

123:41and and and this week I would say the fact that Casey Conpsion somehow has cleared concussion protocol it sounds like. Is is he fully cleared?

123:50>> Yeah, he he's cleared.

123:52>> Wow. He was limited limited. I thought I thought he was going to be out.

123:56>> Yeah, he's cleared protocol. Yeah, >> that's a pretty big deal I think for like where you know how does Watson get

124:03back to playing well? It's by getting the ball out quicker. It's by, you know, taking what the defense is giving him

124:08and concepts is a pretty key part of of him being able to do that, I would say.

124:12>> Yeah. They say cleared cleared to play.

124:14Yeah. Everything everything's even as of now. It it's crazy because he was unconscious, man. Like literally like it was a rough hit. There's sometimes when

124:24guys like like the Jamar Chase one, you know, he he gets ruled out and then he's immediately back at practice and you're

124:30like, you know, maybe, you know, I don't know exactly how the protocol stuff works, but maybe it was like other being cautious kind of thing.

124:38That's not what this one looked like.

124:40>> No. No, man. This was one where you like I even did the opposite. I told you I wrote up this game early. I was like,

124:46there's no way this dude's playing. Like >> Yeah.

124:48>> Like there like I saw the hit.

124:50>> Yeah.

124:52Um but no clear. Yeah. And he was and coming into last week, he was really trending up. So it's >> so it'll be good to see if he picks back

125:01up on that momentum. We were kind of talking about him last week as like a guy that was like >> had kind of the usage that you'd seen

125:07the past two games. 100% of the routes.

125:09Uh 95% is his previous two full. He's had a 20% target every game full game he's played. It was like it's finally

125:16coming together. He was starting to get a couple more deep targets in that last game against the Steelers. not in deep

125:21targets for him or, you know, just throws over 10 yards downfield because he only had one the first, you know, three games of the year. So, big

125:28positive. It's not it's not a match up you're super bullish on. Um, you know, him and Boston, I think you feel really

125:33good about the players and what the what they look like and just understand there's going to be volatility with these guys at this point, but you feel

125:39good though about them as players. I believe >> I agree. I mean, and I think Conpsion, you know, is kind of doing something

125:46that's really important to to the offense right now. Yep. You know, it's it I think it's notable that he he had

125:5311% route participation. He was he was out early in that game and Watson kind of devolved to to not taking what the

126:01defense >> a great point. Tie it into the thing of holding the ball. You lost him and now you you when you give Isaiah Bond a big

126:08route bump, it's a dude that's running routes 25 yards downfield.

126:12>> Totally. And and Denzel Boston's really good.

126:15>> Can we get Isaiah Bond in the Colts? Can we put Isaiah Bonds? That's what I'm saying. How do you not have Isaiah Bond?

126:21There's so many of these guys. Like, you can't find an Isaiah Bond. Like, I mean, it doesn't make any sense. It It truly

126:30doesn't make any sense. There's so many dudes who just like ran past the combine and aren't good.

126:36You don't have any of them. You have Lacoan Treadwell.

126:40That's That's all you had in reserve.

126:42What's going on?

126:43>> Incredible. Oh god, these guys are on the hot seat. Like if they don't win games this year, they're done. And their backup plan was Lon

126:51Treadwell at at the field stretcher.

126:54>> Keenan Allen, baby was the answer.

126:56>> Keenan Allen. God damn. They had to sign him. He wasn't even their backup plan.

127:01He's a lastm minute breaking glass in case of emergency. Like why did you not How do you not You couldn't have signed

127:07MVS. I'm pretty sure he would have been available in the Austin. Like come on.

127:11Let's go. God damn.

127:14>> All right. Anyway, uh Denzel Boston also field stretcher, you know. So, >> uh good player, but you know, uh Conpsion was really playing that role.

127:24What was interesting and and frankly pretty bearish is that Harold Fannon barely got tired. He he he almost had a goose egg last week with Conpsion barely

127:34playing. Um he got targeted right at the end of the game, but he had zero points.

127:39One one yards per out run.

127:41>> Yeah.

127:41>> When Watson plays that way, Fannon is >> Fannon's done.

127:45>> Just as a zero, man.

127:47>> Yeah.

127:49Yeah. So, I don't know. I mean, he's he's had some some decent showings. Uh week three against the the Panthers was

127:55was genuinely encouraging, but it doesn't seem like he has a great connection with uh with Watson overall.

128:01And then Conpsio like Conpsio coming back is bullish and then it probably keeps the offense more on track, but it's also like those guys are competing

128:07for the same types of targets. So, >> um yeah, it's uh it's it's not ideal.

128:14>> No, he feels more just he's very touchdown dependent at this point. And even with the his games with a touchdown, well, he needed two

128:20touchdowns to have the real the real good week.

128:23>> Yeah, right.

128:24>> Even the other game where he had the one touchdown was kind of more of just like being a fringe tight end one. So, and

128:29then you have the volatility of like anytime Watson goes back into this Watson mode, like he's the dude that takes the brunt of it.

128:36>> Yep. Yep.

128:38Um, anything else here on the Browns? I guess that we should talk about the backfield. I mean, Julio Mclofflin, Quinnon Judkins, it's unclear how that's

128:46going to shake out right now with Judkins status.

128:49>> Yeah, it looks like Judkins is going to try to play, but Judkins a a non00% version of Judkins is not very exciting.

128:59I wrote wrote it up and I was just like this the non 100% version of Judkins is so bearish because the one thing that

129:05Judkins has actually been kind of fun the one part of his profile that's been fun is 14% target share 32% targets per

129:13outr run 1.65 65 yards per out run.

129:15That's running back 11. Ranking running back 12 in ESPN's receiver rating. So, he's been a good receiver, but you have, okay, we have banged up Judkins. We

129:24can't have him play all the time. And our our other guy is Jal Mclofflin.

129:28>> What plays are we going to take Judkins off the field for?

129:33>> Passing downs.

129:34>> Yep.

129:34>> Right. So, it's like he's going to lose the thing that's keeping him relevant.

129:38So, I mean, his rushing stuff is so bad.

129:41He's running back 63 and rush yards over expected per game. running back 65 in the nextG success rate. It's it's pretty

129:47it's pretty concerning. So, um yeah, limited Judkins is not someone I'm I mean like I I have a a main event, the the spite main. I I

129:58have Judkins and Kenneth Walker and basically no other running back. Um and I I'm probably gonna have to start him there, but like I'm bummed about it. I

130:05am bummed >> 100%.

130:08>> Uh all right, we good on this game?

130:13Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely.

130:14>> Let's go. Cardinals at Rams. Um and Reeves, we have reached our wagon of the week. The card No, just kidding. The

130:25Rams.

130:26>> This is our wagon, baby. The wagon of the week.

130:28>> The team's just rolling right now. This team is just They're wagon.

130:32>> They are [ __ ] wagon. We're going to have a nice old picnic. Load that wagon up. Like we're whatever you need to put

130:37in that wagon.

130:38>> They're wagon.

130:39>> Yeah, this is our wagon of the week, baby. What does that mean? What does wagon mean?

130:46>> Still good.

130:47>> Still good.

130:47>> So, we had to get off the snide. We got off the snide and uh you had pitched because we always say like when our

130:52wagon is rolling, we stick with them.

130:53And it was it was the Lions who are on by. So, we figured it was only right to attach the Cardinals to play against the

131:01Lions to the wagon here.

131:06>> Yeah. In a sense, the Cardinals are the wagon of the week. It's the Cardinals defense. is the wagon >> 100%.

131:14>> Um, but yeah, I mean the Rams coming off uh you know, it's one of those games they they end up losing the game, but I

131:21mean it was it was a wagon-esque performance last week certainly on on offense. Um, Matthew Stafford playing very efficiently this year. Puka Aua

131:30back and absolutely cooking. And then you have the Cardinals defense that's 30th in passing DVOA, 31st in EPA, 25th in success rate, not really getting a

131:39pass rush and and quite bad in coverage.

131:42And then the other thing with the Cardinals that's funny, like when I look at these these passing matchups early in the season, right? You're trying to be

131:49like, okay, but who did you play? You know, how are these numbers for real?

131:53The Cardinals numbers look a little fake in that they might be worse than this.

131:58Yeah, >> because they've gotten to play Justin Herbert and they and they also got absolutely cooked by Drew Lockach. So like this team, you know, Py went and

132:09Jamus. Yeah. So like they they've had an easy schedule >> of opposing quarterbacks. Goff went nuts against them. Pie went nuts against

132:16them, but like this this is a tough tough spot and they have not performed well in like much easier matchups than

132:25this. Well, the two teams that like adjacent to the Rams that we would put that they faced offensively like in structurally how they want to play like

132:32under center and doing uh some of the things the Rams are going to do, the 49ers and the Lions like absolutely just

132:38stomped them >> like defense like off they did score some points in the 49ers, but uh they just did got dissected by both of those

132:46teams. Um, so I do believe this is be a spot we're definitely gonna have passing volume reduction for Matthew Stafford, but he is absolutely gonna be efficient

132:56in this game on his drive.

132:58>> First half props. First half props.

133:01>> Uh, I mean the the So Arizona is allowing the most passing points per attempt at 0.72. So for context, Brock

133:09Party leads the individual quarterbacks at 0.68. So, like every quarterback that basically is pace faces the Cardinals is 2026 Brock Pery. It's like what's

133:18happening like right now? Uh they allow the most yards or pass attempt touchdown rate. Here's the other thing that's awesome about this matchup is because

133:27we've already seen this Arizona uh they're matching multiple tight end sets with base personnel and 78% of snaps.

133:34They already they faced the Rams twice last year after the Rams kicked to the 13 personnel stuff. both the matchups from the back half of the year and they

133:42matched the Rams with base personnel on 84% of those snaps. Um, and Stafford this year when teams matched the heavy sets that the Rams run uh 69% completion

133:53rate, 9.1 yards for pass attempt, four touchdowns, no interceptions. Last year in the spot against the Cardinals, I mean 66% completion rate, uh, nine yards

134:03or pass attempts. So, it's like he's going to be efficient in this game. uh he has thrown 50 passes or more the last

134:09three weeks. He's the second quarterback in NFL history to do that. They're not going to be in that kind of game

134:14environment. So, the the volume's going to go down, but I still think even if he throws 30 passes, it's going to be

134:20enough here.

134:21>> I agree. Yeah, it's just one of those games. It's kind of like when uh Perie was against the Dolphins or whatever. We

134:26were just like they're they'll be good.

134:27They'll be good. Um, by the way, uh, because you know, they did have the head coach turnover, but their defensive coordinator

134:37is still there. So, he's Yeah. So, so those those splits are are highly relevant from last year.

134:44>> Um, and yeah, it seems like this they're almost like responsible for this this like McVy is like, yo, oh, you're just

134:52gonna match me?

134:55>> Okay.

134:57So yeah, I mean this is Puka Nakua is just set up to have a monster game here.

135:03He's had two games now with a 45% targets per out run or higher. 45% in week one, 49% last week. Uh Adams has

135:13been kind of ignored since Puka has has come back, but Adams stepped up in a big way when Nua was gone. So, you know,

135:21it's going to that's going to balance out a little bit more in a larger sample. I think he's pretty interesting here as well. Um, also he scores

135:28touchdowns.

135:28>> He scores touchdowns.

135:29>> Yeah. 1.13 yards per out run last week.

135:32Do you care? Not really. 22.1 PPR points. That was fine.

135:36>> Right back 60% of the team's end zone targets. He was number one in that department last year. So like you do

135:42live with like him being more touchdown dependent, but like it's they're going to be in the spot to score touchdowns.

135:48So >> also things have swung like so far to Nua.

135:51>> Yeah. Yeah. couple games like that's going to so the touchdowns can sometimes just like hey what if we took two games

135:58that totally sucked and made him awesome you know it's like oh great um and then >> yeah I would say like what was he was at

136:05like 13% targets last week like that's not that's on the lower end we'll see that's the lower end of what we'll see

136:12>> uh yeah >> he's not going to be back to like 28 but like he'll probably be like in that 18

136:17to 22 range most like probably big picture um so >> totally totally be completely happy with that.

136:24>> I'll note that Higgby does look to be the lead tight end right now. He only had 64% of uh 64% rap participation last

136:30week. So, not real high, but Parkinson was at 36, Davis Allen 25. So, he, you know, is is as much of a starting tight

136:39end as you have, I guess. And with them, you know, if you're kind of touchdown hunting, he would be the way I would

136:45play that at this point. Yeah, he has low target. He's been he's like in the veil spot where like he they've thrown

136:53so much it's made him a little bit better, >> but he still has touchdown equity here too.

136:59>> Totally. Um Blake Corm had a really nice game last week. Uh 16.2 PPR points which which limited Kairen Williams, but I

137:08noted in the walkthrough Kairen had an expected points workload of 26.8 points, finished 7.2 points below that. So while Cororm hurt and Cororm did look good. If

137:18Kairen just plays a little bit more efficiently, he has an awesome game last week. And if you look at all the numbers

137:22on Cororm, it's like, oh, he's a decent runner. He now looks intriguing as a receiver, but not much volume. Kairen has been awesome as a runner. He's he's

137:32uh third and second in the two success rate metrics, and he's he's shown a lot of burst, uh a lot of tackle breaking,

137:39and he's running back 12 yards per out run with a with a 16% target share. So, you're getting volume and efficiency

137:46with Kiran. This is a very very strong setup for Kairen Williams. High-end running back one. You're you're locking him in. I do think we'll see more of a

137:56split here than we we have the last three. He's really kind of benefited too from the game states that they've been

138:02in because he's the foxhole back. Like in the chips are down, Kairen Williams is playing. He plays all the passing down stuff. Um he's largely the red

138:09zone. They gave Cororum one last week, but cuz if you look at it last week, it was 12 touches to eight through three

138:15quarters. And that's kind of where we are like when they're in neutral game states and then the teams just started trading body blows and it was all he

138:22played 100% of the snaps in fourth quarter in overtime. Uh the one thing that is nice for him this year and

138:27previous years is he is even because they they ran they got back to 13 personnel last week and he still was

138:33getting targeted which is nice. Last year that wasn't the case.

138:36>> So I think you got a little bit more of juice there. But I do think we're going to see more quorum. Kairen's a weird

138:41dude that he actually has inverse splits because of the reason I said like he plays all the money downs. Uh so when

138:48the chips are on the table, he's in. But he actually has inverse splits that when the Rams are like they win, they blow

138:52teams out. He he does worse for fantasy.

138:56>> That is that is interesting. So it's like kind of the ceiling the ceiling on Kiran might be might be a little bit

139:00lower here. Well, they just I just think we'll see a little more Quorum than than we have these last three weeks that

139:06they've played because like they were in kind of spots where like Quorm just doesn't play in these spots and they were in they were in those consistently

139:13this week. I mean, unless some things really kind of go crazy.

139:17>> Uh I think that they're going to be in like a game state where you're going to see Cororm uh you know get more handoffs

139:23than he's gotten.

139:24>> I had Cororm ranked as a running back three. So I I still >> you want to you want to be playing Rams

139:31in this spot, but >> that's what the wagons wagon's going to do.

139:34>> That's what wagon Yeah, you play two running backs on a wagon.

139:37>> That's how it works.

139:41>> Uh any anything else on the Rams before we uh >> No, they're all Did you play any Ram you want except for like the bad vagabonds,

139:47but like yeah, like I said, I think even in this week like you might be in a bad spot like I mean you just talked about

139:52Judkins. If you had Judkins versus Cororum, would you play Cororum?

139:55>> I need to check that. I actually have Cororm ranked ahead, but my answer is Cororm. So, I'm going to adjust the

140:00ranks >> uh by two spots. I'm going to move I I literally had Cororum just two spots by Judkins.

140:07>> Yeah, I mean you play uh >> play Cororum.

140:10>> Yeah.

140:11>> Um All right. Ranks are adjusted.

140:14>> Cardinal side. Adjust the ranks but not as a bit uh on on the Cardinal side. One thing that jumped out last year and I kind of

140:24curious your thoughts on this kind of the what happened last year versus the this year setup, but um Michael Wilson was was quite good against the Rams last

140:34season where Trey McBride was was held in check and and as you mentioned those are both late uh season matchups. We had

140:43um Jacobe Brassette, you know, under center at that point. McBride had PPR totals of 10.8 8 and 13.5 points and

140:52Wilson posted 37.2 in week 14 and 20.9 in week 18. But when you look at the matchup, it's like the Rams, they've

141:02got, you know, Trent McDuffy, Josh Wallace, Jaylen Watson at quarterback, all are ranking really well um in terms of, you know, preventing yards. They

141:10this is a a very good uh coverage unit for the Rams and one where the quarterbacks are really the strength.

141:17And so with Marvin Harrison now gone, who you know was going to draw some attention deep. He was just running kind

141:24of clear out routes, but as we talked about with the Colts, it's kind of nice to have someone do that sometimes.

141:28>> Yeah. Did you see all the stuff after the game?

141:31>> No.

141:32>> Cuz McBride was frustrated and Jacob was like, "Dude, like there's there was two guys on him like every like what are you

141:37going to do?" Like same thing with Michael Wilson. I had a a clip that uh um uh one of the followers, the

141:45Cardinals guys, that um showed just Michael Wilson just getting bracketed the entire game and it was like, "Yeah, the sacrificial X like the sacrificial X

141:53was doing his thing."

141:54>> Well, maybe don't sacrifice him, you know, like if he's so important. To >> be fair, they got a two sacrifice.

141:59>> They got a two. We didn't think they would. So, >> yeah, that's true. You get you gota for a two, you got to do it. Uh but but you

142:08know it got to that point, you know, it's like he could have like he's we think that's a good deal in

142:14part because they like refused to throw him the ball, you know, or like or design an offense that would have featured him a bit more. But um there

142:21was one play where Wilson and McBride were on the right side of the field and the Lions had just six dudes over there

142:27and just had one guy on Jaylen Brooks and they were like, "Good luck." And they they threw the one-on-one to Brooks. He ain't winning it. But like

142:34that's what these dudes are going to have to deal with like the rest of the year probably.

142:38>> That is rough. And and the double coverage stuff like uh McBride was at 41% that was his highest of the season.

142:46>> And Wilson 34% which was his second highest. The highest being the week before against the Giants. He was at 35.

142:52So you know he's um he's going to he's going to face a lot more defensive attention here. Uh >> Trey McDuffy did get hurt in practice

143:02today. I don't know if you saw that. Oh, I didn't see that.

143:04>> So, he hurt his groin and in practice and they listen as questionable, but like that Friday injury is never a great

143:10thing, especially when you're a 12-point favorite is probably not >> They're deep though. They're they're like legit deep at >> Oh, no. I just meant like Yeah, just

143:18like in general like it's, you know, him I would assume like him having a Friday injury and them just being massive home

143:23favorites that they're just going to be like, you know what, dude, like >> take the week off.

143:28>> Yeah.

143:29>> Yeah, that's a good point. And then uh I I I felt a little bit more bullish on McBride ultimately of the two. Uh but

143:37they're both going to face a ton of attention.

143:39>> I mean, yeah, you're going to play these dude. I mean, you have no choice, but it it it was kind of scary. Um because now

143:45that it also adds context to like when you look at McBride right now, he leads the NFL in receptions, which you like,

143:50but like he's averaging seven yards per catch. Like >> because he can't they can't create anything down field for him because

143:56everything's just taken away. Um, like they'll give up like teams will give you up this short stuff to McBride and let

144:03him catch the ball and come up and tackle and stuff, but like when he is actually like running the big boy route

144:07stuff like he's blanketed, dude. I mean, that was the hardest working touchdown I've seen a dude catch last week.

144:12>> Uh, like was awesome. And then you look at the Rams.

144:16>> Awesome catch.

144:17>> The Rams going back to last year and this year like they've been so good against tight ends and they face, you

144:21know, Concaid and Isaiah likely KD you can put an asterisk on because it was first game back from the Achilles. with

144:27even going back to last year. Like you mentioned the two games that he played against them. Uh really tough spots too.

144:34So like you're playing I I don't feel good about this offense in general at this point. Like dude, we had to suck

144:38out against the Lions last week. Like the Lions were in the bag here. Like Jacobe Brassette was nine of 20 at

144:46halftime against the Detroit Lions. Like >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you know, we're in a bad spot here.

144:53>> It is one of those things where was we kind of get deeper into the season. I wouldn't be surprised if we

145:01all were kind of like >> right it's Jacobe Brassette, >> you know, like Jacobe Brassette has not had a long run of success really at any

145:11point. He had that kind of that run with the Colts that was like okay, >> you know, he's terrible with the

145:17Patriots. Mhm.

145:18>> Um he just hasn't been and even in this run his efficiency has been fine, but like it's a lot, you know, driven by

145:27volume. So yeah, the the Harrison trade I think could end up like we could end up feeling like, oh, this is a little

145:33bit more of a fragile situation than we were kind of giving it credit for because it sustained for longer than than we expected, you know, and it's

145:40just like, oh, maybe this will always just kind of keep rolling. But >> yeah, LA I mean it was only one game,

145:45but last week was pretty illuminating because it it was the Lions, right? Like it like and the Lions had the foresight

145:51of like we're just going to put all our guys on these two players like it worked.

145:56>> Like Kendrick Bourne had like a nice little game, but like do you think the Lions cared that Kendrick Bourne had

146:01like you know 70 yards? They absolutely did it.

146:05>> Promise you that.

146:06>> Well, it wasn't I mean the Giants game was pretty disappointing too. you know, going up against bad defense >> and you said that that was his other

146:15Michael Wilson had a high he that he still did have 100 air yards. Uh so like they gave him he still get some

146:21opportunities and he underperformed but you don't feel good about like where the floor was against the Lions and that's always scary. Yeah, it's it's like the

146:31concentration is nice, but then the defensive attention is is now following that where you have like obviously the best >> the offense in general is bad.

146:40>> The offense in general is bad. Yeah.

146:43Yeah. Right. It's what you want is like what the Rams are doing or what the Seahawks are doing where it's like you

146:49you can't stop this and so we're going to spam it. This is more like these are the only two guys who can play. So,

146:54we're going to spam that. But you also know that and are going to try to take it away and might be successful at doing

147:00that >> cuz these guys are already attached to a dude that is last in the NFL on yards or pass attempt. Like dead last. And we

147:07haven't even seen Mchu or Beck yet.

147:09Like, who knows? Like >> Yeah. Yeah.

147:14>> I think it's probably too late. We probably should have did it. It was probably a huge selling point for Michael Wilson in my opinion. McBride,

147:21you're it is what like McBride, you're just he plays tight end. So, >> I literally thought about sending um a trade I think we're in this league

147:31together, but I was going to include Michael Wilson in a trade offer last night and I was like uh Dynasty League

147:37and I was like, Kyle Kyle Devort's going to see right through this.

147:45I just sent I just included a first.

147:48It really feels like when we get to the end like Michael Wilson's going to be like the wide receiver that like

147:53underperforms all the expectation models the most. Like he'll just be the like all his expected usage will be the reasons you like he keeps like hanging

148:01on and like he'll just it'll be explainable too why it happened.

148:06>> Yeah. I was going to see like I was like oh you know is he in dynasty like is he going to be kind of like a young

148:11receiver in people's minds? But he's 27 and I think we're probably all going to be pretty quickly on the same page of

148:16like this dude's >> he's he's sort of the equivalent of like one of these found money running backs, you know, it's like, yeah, he'll be

148:24productive, but for how long? Yeah, this is a situation like I the situ the thing that scares me about this is like this

148:30is an outcome where like the Tanner McKe thing like it could be worse like the maybe it could get it could get better

148:36because we haven't seen the offense operate the way it went but like the way it could maybe want to but like this is

148:41one where like when they go to Mchu or they go to Beck like >> I don't think they will go to Mchu. I

148:46think they'll they'll go to Beck eventually.

148:49>> Oh yeah, eventually he's definitely playing. I mean, they could go to if they go to Mchu like we don't care

148:56anymore.

148:59Like we've like we're spending five minutes on the Cardinals and on the pod.

149:04Like it's like well Cardinals are brutal as hell.

149:06>> But I think we'll get Beck just because you know they're going to want to evaluate him.

149:11>> Um >> we're not getting Jeremiah Love.

149:13>> We're not getting Jeremiah Love. and your note last week on Tyler Algier being the pass now back was was dead on

149:20and um yeah love it keep me off love last week as you know part of this this whole game environment even as a late

149:28swap I had like late swat swap options I had some Jamus stuff that went pretty well but not quite good enough because I

149:35didn't have Warren on it so it's like all right how do I what what's my late swap and I was batting around one with

149:42love and thought no because My feeling was that, you know, the Lions were gonna going to win that game. Yeah, we talked

149:49about it last week, playing it from the Lions side. That was kind of the the driving engine there and they were

149:54indeed a wagon. So, the um the Jeremiah Love stuff, I mean, it's he's a he's a he kind of looks like Tvon Henderson.

150:06You're not wrong.

150:09He kind of nailed that.

150:12>> Yeah. Yeah, >> without even the explosives yet.

150:14>> Without even the explosive, he's more cons he's like a consistent non-exlosive trivia Henderson.

150:21>> He's a grinder. Henderson.

150:23>> Yeah. Well, he's in a way worse off.

150:26Like Henderson at least got inserted into the 2025 Patriots.

150:29>> Yeah.

150:29>> I mean, I'm not saying like this is who he is. I'm saying he's less explosive Tayon Henderson has >> but from a fantasy football context like

150:35what the expectations are like right now is kind of >> appropriate. for this week. He's kind of like Trebon Henderson coded.

150:43>> Yeah, >> it'll get better. He's a good player.

150:45They'll give him more. He'll start to earn more trust on receiving downs.

150:49>> Well, you hope he comes out healthy through all this now.

150:51>> Yeah. Yeah.

150:53>> That they're just because this is what they should do at JT and they're not going to. We'll talk about that in a

150:57second. Uh but at least they're just finally saying, "You know what, dude?

151:01Just take some time off. We're bad. What do you do?"

151:05>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

151:06>> They said they're not going to put him on IR, too. So, it just could be a short thing.

151:11>> Where are you at on Alier?

151:15>> I don't know. I mean, he's going to like be like a dude out there getting I'll tell you what. I like Tyler Algier more

151:21than Damen Pierce.

151:24>> Yeah, I like him. I like him. I definitely like him more than than Damen Pierce.

151:29>> It's not a situation you're like excited about on any level, though. But like he's gonna get the football, so you kind

151:34of at this point just have to like see where that like takes you. Could we get a pass interference in the end zone?

151:41Could something get him knock on the doorstep?

151:43>> Yeah, dude. That that that um it's like Oh, the Broncos running backs each scored. They probably had like a reasonable day on offense. Like, oh no,

151:54just pass interference, man.

151:56>> That's I feel like that's I mean, right now Algier is 44th in yards per carry out of 53 running backs at 25 or more

152:03carry. He's averaging three and a half yards per touch this season. We talked about he was playing the passing role, but they aren't throwing to him. He's

152:09just out there like, >> so he already had that role. Like he already had the passing down role.

152:16>> I know. And it's useless passing downs.

152:18It's not Yeah. They're not throwing to him. Yeah.

152:20>> Right. And and the Rams are 10th in points allowed per touch to running backs, ninth in rushing points allowed per game to running backs.

152:28He's a co he's a strict valuebased play and sometimes they do work out but he I feel like he has to have a touchdown for

152:34you.

152:35>> Like absolutely has to cuz yeah I mean he's 0.51 yards per out run like he's just like he that's his role. Love is at

152:430.55 yards per out run. So there's nothing like you're not consolidating anything. First of all he already kind of has the role. Second of all to the

152:51extent that he's like accumulating new >> routes those routes also suck. So, I don't know. I mean, it's Yeah, he's gonna he's gonna play more,

153:01but it's not gonna the receiving production is just not going to drive it. Um >> All right.

153:09>> Pain.

153:10>> Pain.

153:12Uh let's go. Yeah, look, we'll we'll save we'll save the Raiders at Bills for last because that one's a little bit

153:17more fun. But >> we never we never want to close on the Chargers.

153:21>> We're not going to because they're going to be late window so much.

153:23>> Every it just is what it is. Unless they're the only 425 game, we're going to do our best.

153:30It was funny because I was looking at like this uh this week I was kind of running some charts with, you know,

153:36splits where, you know, like weeks one through two, then weeks um three through five and and all that. And Justin Herbert's one I was like, there is no

153:44possible way for me to do any kind of split analysis. It is just steady steady pain. Um yeah. So, where where are you

153:54at on on the Chargers offense right now?

153:57>> I mean, nobody nobody respects these guys right now. Herbert faces the lowest rate of man coverage in the NFL by far.

154:04He's blitzed at the 27th highest rate and despite that is 30th in pressure rate per drop back. He's taken a hit on

154:11a league high 21% of his drop backs.

154:14Last week, the guys on the field were Theo Whis, Marquez Valde Scantling, and Darius Davis at wide receiver. They had Alex Harky, Logan Taylor, and Travis

154:24Burke on the offensive line. He's playing bad on top of it. Like even when he's had clean pocket uh uh without

154:32pressure, he has the league's lowest passer rating. He's 30th in completion rate kept clean. He's 25th in yards per pass and clean. He's a league high

154:39interception rate when kept clean. It's a disaster on every every single systemic level. It's not going to get better. It's a simulate to end type

154:48season. They're already talking about potentially going to Adam Gase if they fire Mike McDaniel. Like it's >> how is Adam Gase the This is that the

154:57Laquan Treadwell of backup offensive coordinators. What are you saying? Adam Gase is your other option. That's crazy.

155:08It's a disaster, bro. It's just a disaster. And the Chiefs are good. Like it's a good It's not even a good match.

155:13There's like there's nothing to pull here. Like >> no, >> they're running a complete backfield committee.

155:20We maybe lad maki will be healthy. Who knows? Maybeart.

155:25>> Who knows? Not us.

155:27>> Yeah, not us. We don't know.

155:28>> If he doesn't play >> Charlie Kar came back kind of fun.

155:33>> I was into that for a second.

155:35>> I mean, buddy, this is like the anti-wagon. Like, this is the This is They're the worst. They're the worst, dude.

155:41>> This is an anti-wagon. Uh Murphy hates the Charges. He won't he won't stop barking about them. The the tackles, the

155:48tackle situation, Harky and and Burke.

155:51Uh the among 77 qualifying tackles, Joe Alt was 14th in pass block grade. Slater now on IR 21st. Alt's not going to play

156:00either this week. Uh he'll play before Slater. Uh Harky ranks 68th in pass block grade. Burke ranks 77th dead last.

156:10It's like it really is deja vu com, you know, the last year situation, >> but Herbert's playing way worse now.

156:18>> Yeah.

156:20>> So, yeah. I mean, yeah, it is it is sim to end type stuff. Uh Quinton Johnson might play or has he been ruled out?

156:30>> They I was waiting on both of them were kind of looked like they were going to play actually this week. Um I didn't see

156:35>> that's how I had it but unclear how much.

156:37>> Yeah. Um, I mean, lad, that first drive of the season was great. Was pretty awesome.

156:44>> It was I mean, he he's still at over two yards per route run. Like, he looks >> like he just could overcome it a little

156:50bit. Yeah. The I do trust McDaniel to run the whole thing through Lad when healthy.

156:57>> The problem is Lad is this type of dude that like he's hard to run the whole thing through because he doesn't have

157:02the body type to like withstand it.

157:03>> He gets hurt immediately.

157:06Like Matt Harmon always talked about this when we were talking like being bullish. He was like man he's like you know he's just he is that kind of body

157:12type though like he's hard to like jam a bunch of targets to especially on the the middle of the field stuff that

157:17McDaniel wants to run him on. He just has pick him up he's got to pick himself off the ground every every target.

157:23>> I mean Jaylen Wadd has spent more time in the blue tent than than anyone in the NFL currently. So I I I think he'll

157:31still run it through Lad. Like >> he still will. Yeah.

157:33>> Yeah. Like Yes. Lad is probably gonna miss more time than he has so far, but when he's out there, I think he's like,

157:41what else is he gonna do?

157:42>> What else he do?

157:43>> Well, to answer my own question, they're going to run the crap out of the ball and try to get these games over with. I

157:48kind of called for them to do this in the walkthrough just to like spare Justin Herbert the pain.

157:52>> They are minus >> They are doing it minus 18% passer expected. Minus 32% on first and 10. Uh over the course of the year, they're

158:00playing very similarly to the Dolphins.

158:02just like super super conservative. Um trying literally just trying to limit possessions and and get these losses over with. It's it's capitulation ball.

158:12Uh it's really ugly. Not what we thought we were getting with the Chargers, but that's where we're at.

158:17>> And they've dragged everyone into the darkness with them. We'll see if it's going to limit, you know, Mahomes, but they they are also getting teams to just

158:25be super runheavy against them because they're so bad. Uh they haven't even allowed a quarterback to complete 20 passes against them since week one

158:33because nobody's throwing passes against them. They face 28 pass attempts per game. Uh because they play slow and poor and then they force teams to play slow.

158:42Uh it's it's the quite a [ __ ] is it literally simulate the end type stuff, >> right? Yeah, it really is. Um and the

158:51funny thing about the backfield stuff is like the doll looks like the best of the three right now. It's a runner. He's if

158:58anyone who's had like actual rushing juice, it's Yeah, probably >> Ball.

159:04>> It has been great. His run Yeah. last week was awesome.

159:07>> It was awesome. Yeah. Bounced off that dude like he Yeah, he looks pretty good.

159:11But Mitchell's probably the guy like if you're playing someone as a fantasy player, you'd be most interested in Mitchell at this point because he's had

159:17backto-back 20% target shares, >> right?

159:20>> But he's not getting enough carries, >> right? He's not doing and he also not doing anything. But Hampton's not been

159:26doing anything and not really getting targeted. So he's sort of >> Yeah.

159:29>> worse Vid Doll but plays more.

159:33>> Yeah, they've they the Chargers ran the ball in 80% of Hampton snaps last week.

159:38Like he's just literally out there to get handoffs.

159:42>> Yeah. on the >> on the Chargers >> the Chiefs side of this. Um the Chargers, as you mentioned, I mean,

159:49they're they're a big time pass or big time run funnel. 53% pass rate against the Chargers. 6% uh sorry, minus 6% pass

159:58rate of expected. A 4% shift to the run.

160:00This is this is a runfunnel situation here. They the uh the Cardinals 58% pass rate against the Chargers in week one is

160:08the highest they've seen all season.

160:10lowest they've seen was 47% by the Seahawks two weeks ago. So, you know, this is a spot where the Chiefs big home

160:17favorites, they have injuries at wide receiver. You know, we can kind of start with Kenneth Walker where I I do tend to

160:25think that the the Chiefs probably aren't going to have like a minus 7% pass rate expected or something, >> but they will probably be close to even

160:36like somewhere between minus two and plus two probably. What were they against the Dolphins? Cuz it's probably something >> zero.

160:43>> Yeah, it's probably something similar.

160:44>> Sorry, the Dolphins. No, uh the Dolphins is they weren't at zero there. Let me pull it up. Uh that was what

160:52week was that?

160:53>> That was uh week three.

160:55>> Okay. They were actually positive against the Dolphins. I think they were like plus four or something. One sec.

161:00>> Cuz that's like what you would say like >> they were plus six against the Dolphins.

161:05They were zero against the Broncos.

161:06>> Gosh, they were plus six. Mahomes only threw 24 passes in that game and they were plus six.

161:10>> Yeah.

161:11>> Wow.

161:11>> Cuz expect the expected pass rate in that game was 47%.

161:16>> Oh yeah.

161:18>> That's the thing with the with the Chiefs is like they're not going to they're not going to pass 49% of the

161:22time or whatever.

161:23>> No, no, no.

161:24>> They'll keep Yeah. So, so maybe there will be a plus, you know, maybe plus five, plus six is in the the cards, you

161:32know, it's in the range of outcomes, but the larger point is that the Chiefs are probably going to pass, you know, about

161:3955% of the time or less here.

161:42>> Yeah, it's a bummer. like you're like efficiency wise will be here, but unlike the kind of what we talked about with

161:47Stafford, like that's not like I don't know if it's as much as the ceiling outcome with Momes because you have all

161:53the wide receiver injuries and um that stuff. Like I I'm not going to like run and like hide and stream for Mahomes,

162:00but like it probably is one where it's like he's like a backend QB1.

162:05>> I have teams with like Mahomes and Perie and stuff and it's like >> oh yeah, you're playing pretty.

162:09>> You're playing Pury.

162:10>> Yeah, 100%.

162:12You're playing Stafford, you're playing like some of the guys that you took, you know, you take Mahomes and you you might

162:17have a golf or Well, golf is obviously don't buy, but you you might have got >> that pocket passer type >> uh love you're playing.

162:24>> He's not going to have to do basically what we're saying. He's just not going to have to do >> Yeah.

162:28>> anything herculean and you don't have Rashi Rice. Taekwon's out.

162:35>> What What are your thoughts on how they play things out of the buy with the receivers? I mean, you know, Rice and

162:41Taekquin Thornton are both very different players, but both big losses.

162:46>> I think you'll see uh some heavier stuff, too. They've already been doing it, too. So, I think we'll see Noah Gray

162:51uh involved uh because the two guys are just very inexperienced. Jaylen Royals and Cyrus Allen. They're going to have opportunities. Like, those are going to

162:58play. It's just those are two guys that just are not, I don't think, high on the pecking order. The the Chiefs

163:04have always been like a player not play type of team, right? like they they get the ball to players. That's like how

163:11they've always called games. Uh so like these guys are probably not going to be like super involved I don't think in a

163:16game where there's like limited volume.

163:18Like Xavier Worthy I think is in a good spot because like they will call stuff for Xavier Worthy because he's a guy

163:23that they will prioritize on this version of the offense. Uh we've actually seen it before where he ends up being the only receiver uh you know

163:31available and he he can and like you're never like he's not like an auto jam but I think like a Xavier worthy like a 25%

163:38target share is definitely a playable player.

163:41>> That's probably what we'll get here. And Royals and Allen will just be like probably guys that you you could take

163:47some guesswork and some deep stuff but like uh we saw Royals come into the game when Rice got hurt super early in the

163:53game. you're in 21 routes and had no catches. Like the Chiefs get the ball to good players.

163:59That's like always like the one thing about them you can count on. And sometimes they reviewed Rasheed Rice as the guy getting the the four AOT target

164:07as a version of that. But they've got options. It's going to be big Kenneth Walker game. I think uh Xavier Worthy

164:13and Kelsey will be the two highest target shares. And we might even see Noah Gray be the fourth because the other thing is Walker. Walker has a 16%

164:20target share. Yeah, Walker's going to get a lot of a lot of targets. Yeah, >> the the thing too is the Chargers so in

164:27EPA per play the uh percentiles uh Jacobe Brassette was 77th%ile in week one against them. Then Kirk Cousin 71st, Josh Allen 50th, Sam

164:39Darnold 21st, Bon Knicks 20th. They've gotten better. We we were talking early on about hey Mhm.

164:45>> the defensive situation is is basically almost as bad as the offensive situation. that has changed. They've kind of gotten it together. The Chargers

164:54and the overall numbers for the season now look pretty solid. You know, an above average defense at this point and one clearly trending in the right

165:01direction. Obviously, Mahomes is is going to be a pretty big test for them, but this is not like an easy spot. Even

165:07if you left aside the volume concerns, this isn't an easy matchup for the Chiefs offense, uh Chief's passing offense, I should say. And it does look

165:17like one where you you want to just lean on the run like in part as a kind of the the Titans disrespect runfunnel but also

165:25like matchup runfunnel. This has both.

165:28>> Yeah. And the Chargers have faced one good running team in the Bills and they gave 150 yards of James Cook.

165:37Like >> is going to smash here, man.

165:40>> Yeah. I mean they faced the Seahawks backfield. They faced the Broncos backfield. They faced the Raiders backfield. face the Cardinals backfield,

165:46you know.

165:47>> Yeah.

165:48>> Yeah.

165:48>> This is a big Kenneth Walker out of the buy. Hey, hey, buddy, you got your rest.

165:55>> Come out here and do it. I mean, and his usage is his utilization is just incredible.

165:59>> It really is.

166:00>> I he leads he's comes out he lead actually leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage per game. It's just that he

166:05has a but he had a buy, so he's >> right >> behind. But, you know, he's second in touches per game. He also has a 16%.

166:10He's RB5 in target share. Like explosive runs, like it's all there for him. Like this is the exactly what you hoped would

166:18happen.

166:19>> His targets have really declined. Uh 25% target share, 189, and then 4% in week four. And I think if Rashi Rice was

166:29healthy, >> we'd probably be talking about that part of it. Like, but I I just refuse to care. Like you're telling me when she

166:38rises out and you know this is this is a a game plan that really sets up for Walker to be a featured player like

166:46they're going to they're going to get him the ball. So I think he'll he'll rebound a little bit from there. It's

166:51something to keep in mind when Rice is back though that that Walker's uh early season targets may have been slightly related to Rice not being healthy. Um

167:01you know he was playing but not really 100%. So, yeah, something to keep in mind for future weeks, but Walkers Walker's a

167:08jam.

167:10>> Absolutely.

167:11>> All right, Bills at Raiders. Uh, you want to start with the Bills or the Raiders here?

167:17>> Um, either way, this one's could be fun.

167:19It's a nice one to end on. Either way, >> it is a nice one. Do we have DJ Moore?

167:23Uh, any news on him playing?

167:25>> I He hadn't practiced the last I saw.

167:28They're on buy next week.

167:30I've been assuming he'll be out, but I've I've seen stuff with him in.

167:34>> Um, all right. Let's let's talk the Bills and and assuming that >> I'll see if I get any updates.

167:40>> DJ Moore doesn't play. Um, the thing I wrote >> was seen practicing today, so >> Okay, >> you never know with him.

167:48>> Probably limited, but that might be enough. He seemed like he was, you know, kind of on the fence last week, but um

167:58yeah, we can kind of talk through it both ways.

168:00>> Yeah. Yeah.

168:01>> The um the the way this kind of this game broke down to me was like like Josh Allen's going to get there. He's he's playing

168:11incredible football. But it is interesting that after the first two weeks of the season, the Bills had a 7%

168:20pass rate of expected, 5% on first and 10, a 62% pass rate, which is above average or uh I think the average is now

168:29up to 62%, but right right there. And then the an expected pass rate well below average at 55%. So I was like,

168:38man, Joe Brady, you know, he's he's kind of changed things up here. He's emphasizing the pass. Finally, over the last three weeks, they're at minus 7%

168:47pass rate of expected. So, they fully swung. They were plus seven, now they're minus 7. And they're minus 16% pass rate

168:54of expected on first and 10. They have a 56% pass rate with an expected pass rate of 62%. So, they're like literally

169:01mirror image type of team here. And hasn't been hugely impactful last week.

169:08They they were conservative against the Rams. They obviously was an awesome shootout. They they win in overtime.

169:14They score plenty of points. Patriots, it it hurt them a little bit more. They lose that game. They had a minus 2% pass

169:19rate of respect in that game. But because it was ultimately a high pass rate script, they still pass 66% of the

169:25time.

169:26>> Against the Chargers 3 weeks ago, they were at a minus 12% pass rate of respected there and passed just 51% of

169:32the time. That was the one where probably hurt them the most. We had them as the wagon of the week that week. they

169:36were not in fact the wagon and I think they got in their own way there. You could argue that this game is is kind of

169:43more similar to the the Chargers where you know you wouldn't expect the Raiders to be good but the Raiders have been

169:48better than we would have thought. So they could push back more than that but >> but do the Bills play it that way or do

169:55they get overly conservative? And when the Bills get conservative it just it becomes not very fun because you Allen still gets his he's going to run. he's

170:06going to pass, but he he spreads it out a little bit and then he turns drop backs into rush attempts at a high rate.

170:14So, you know, he was not passing. He was not dropping back very much, but then he had just 19 attempts last week on 28

170:22dropbacks.

170:23>> That's just going to make predicting where those targets go really difficult because we're talking about a small handful really of of you know, I mean

170:32that like accurate attempts, right? if you're talking about 19 attempts, like come on. So, >> um it it it does there's like not very

170:40much margin for error here when we're trying to play Bills if um if Allen is not going to be dropping back much and

170:48and Joe Brady has kind of swung back to this conservative style. What What are your thoughts on kind of what the Bills

170:53are where they are philosophically right now?

170:56>> Yeah, I don't know if it's because of the wide receiver injuries. Uh you know, they turn they were turning the ball

171:00over in that Chargers game, too. And that's been the story with Allen over his career, right? Yeah. They you push it, you push it, and then as soon as he

171:07starts turning the ball over, everyone gets tight.

171:10>> Yeah. Uh he had a 29% scramble rate, his second highest rate of his career on Monday. Uh and then when they did throw,

171:16that was a it was like all yak, too.

171:19Like they had the two big plays, the Shakir play and then the Tai Johnson play. They had their lowest area yards

171:23by far of the season available, 146 team air yards. Uh that's like stuff we we can't do much with that at all. um

171:31>> which is unfortunate. Um you know, so if DJ Moore comes back, maybe that pushes them a little bit into throwing. Uh

171:38hopefully we get the Raiders, you know, pushing back too as well. The Bills have allowed 29 or more points to every team

171:44but the Chargers.

171:46>> So, you know, >> there's so many stats like that. We should have a but the stars stat off.

171:52Yeah, >> because you know, when the Bills give up points, Josh Allen scores fantasy points, which is cool. Uh we've always

172:00been in that boat in all four of those games. Been a top 10 scorer, top three scorer in three of them. Uh you know,

172:06since 2020, which was like his breakout, he's averaging 23 p fantasy points per game when his team only allows 24 more

172:12points, not even the 29, just kind of lowering that. And this Raiders team, we we knew that they were kind of, you

172:19know, they got out hot with the wins. We knew that they had a favorable schedule start. And then we've seen the defense,

172:24you know, they they've allowed 10 passing touchdowns now the past three games against better opponents. They were so good against Momes. Um, but then

172:32everything fell apart last week. Like I mean Drake May was absolutely just there was dudes just naked too at points and

172:38was having his way. They also give up a lot of rushing points to quarterbacks.

172:41Uh, which is not good here. Uh, Tyler Shuck ran for 36. Malik Willis 39 a touchdown. Drake May had 25 and a

172:49touchdown last week. So like you said, Allen's going to get his. And then the biggest part where I have the kind of

172:56the concerns then you probably got here too is that this is an incredible spot for James Cook.

173:01An absolutely incredible spot.

173:04>> You know the one thing we haven't seen James and maybe he fumbles this way. I don't know if I really believe Joe Brady

173:09because after his fumble in overtime he came right back out the next drive and got two touches in the final possession

173:14of the game. U >> I was also looking for quotes of like maybe like are they going to go away from him at all? And the more I found,

173:22the more it made me feel better about Cook >> that they're just they're going to >> It seemed like it was more like of a

173:27motivate like come on man.

173:28>> Yeah. Like this isn't acceptable like we got to get this fixed kind of thing. But there was no like what you are worried

173:35you'll find is like the pissed-off Dennis Allen this guy's my doghouse type type thing. That that's not what it was.

173:41And >> and he's a guy like they understand also like what he provides like isn't really replaceable with the dudes like that

173:47they got. It really is not.

173:50>> And you're facing this Raiders team who is just getting killed with explosive runs. Like I mean Cory Ker came in and

173:56ripped like two awesome runs last week.

173:58Uh dude, they're allowing the most yards before contact the running backs.

174:02They're 31st in explosive run rate allowed. They're allowing over five yards per carry. First down or touchdown 20. Like the one thing we haven't seen

174:08James Cook do yet, which we know is in his bag, is like he's going to put a 50 yarder on someone and like this would be

174:14a hell of a spot to do it.

174:16>> Yeah. Yeah. No, >> with the narrative. Right off the narrative, too, >> dude. Oh my god. Just seeing I'm just

174:24like envisioning the Bills sideline just going nuts as he scores a touchdown.

174:28They're just, you know, they they got the head. You got Joe, you got Joe Brady with pulling the helmet in, you know,

174:33telling them, "God damn it, how do I not play James Cook now?"

174:42Oh man. Yeah, DJ Moore would be like when you look at what DJ Moore has brought to the offense, he is he's

174:50getting targeted deep 15.9 AOT and he's getting targeted 26% targets per route run, 2.47 yards per route run. So, uh he

174:58has been like a pretty key piece of the offense. He's the one guy if he plays and I think the way I wrote it up is I

175:07was like, okay, DJ Moore's coming back off the shoulder injury. He's got reinjury risk quite clearly. He's already left the game from re reinjuring

175:16it.

175:16>> You think the lad maki thing >> the lad maki thing how much and how much are we going to get even you know even

175:21if he doesn't get hurt he's got a low floor but like >> who doesn't >> Yeah >> you know we've seen Daltton Con

175:29completely disappear. We've seen Khalil Shakir be really efficient from a yardage perspective and still not really do much in the box score. Keon Coleman

175:37obviously has a low floor. He's had some good games. He's completely disappeared sometimes even after, you know, he's playing a little bit more. Last week he

175:44he had 0.30 yards per hour run despite a season high 82% route participation. So like you can't tell me that there's

175:51floor here outside of Allen who's got one of the highest floors we've ever seen at quarterback. But you know, from the from the passing weapons

175:59perspective, there is no floor. So why don't I play the guy who is kind of the the engine of what they're they're

176:05trying to do downfield. So, I think Moore is is definitely someone I'm willing to take the leap with this week.

176:12Um, and it this could be a fun game environment. We're we're about to talk the Raiders.

176:18>> I have some optimism for for what we get from the Raiders side of it and that would really help just just add some

176:25more passing. Let's get over 20 attempts this week, you know, in a in a high-scoring game. Let's get over 20 attempts from Josh Allen. You know what

176:34I mean?

176:36if he doesn't play. Shakir's got a pretty good matchup. We saw Douglas last week. You know, it's the same thing like

176:40you're never really excited to play Douglas because of the match the because of Douglas uh just kind of like Shakir, but like the Raiders have been

176:47absolutely cooked from the slot. Like they're just getting crushed. Um >> Yeah. Yeah.

176:53>> But so like if you would more want you would want more not to play to kind of boost that because he he

176:58>> I think so.

176:59>> He got a big route boost last week in terms of route participation.

177:04>> Yeah.

177:06in the last two weeks where you know more more was limited to 39% round participation against the Patriots.

177:11Yeah. So Shakira's been at 86 for both the last two weeks but he was at 63 55 and 68 before that. So it's like a

177:19meaningful difference.

177:20>> Yep.

177:20>> Um and again like if we're talking about limited dropback volume like I do not want to be I want as many routes as I

177:26can get because there's probably not going to be that many even if you're running 100%. Um, all right. Raiders side. Uh,

177:35>> it is Don Kade's birthday Sunday, too. I just want to say >> Oh, okay. That might be enough. We need

177:40Hey, it's high leverage targets, man. If you're telling me that's an extra red zone target, that's a huge share of the of the pie.

177:53Oh man, >> that birthday narrative. We got to get that. Josh. Josh, we need one.

177:58>> We need one, man. By the way, did you see that clip that's going around of him getting tackled?

178:04Oh, yeah.

178:11That's one of the funniest things I've seen. Is this zooming in on Josh's face?

178:21Oh, man. All right. Well, check what was the who had that? We should shout that out.

178:25>> Oh, that's if you haven't seen it.

178:28>> Yeah. Who did have it?

178:29Um, all right. Bills defense, as you pull that up, Bills ranked dead last in PFF's coverage grades. They're 28th in passing

178:39Dva, 28th in EPA, 29th in drop back success rate. This is a defense that struggled to rush the passer. Um, despite Greg Russo like individually

178:51ranking pretty well. Um, but this is the the bigger issue really is is coverage and um you're you're looking at and it's

179:02like I think Maxwell Haristston was benched last week.

179:04>> Yeah, he was.

179:05>> Um and but he was benched for a guy who like rates horrendously in uh yards allowed per coverage snap. He's

179:14cornerback 88. Davidson Igbonosen.

179:17>> Oh yeah, that's a dude from Ohio State, dude. Do he was awful in college, dude.

179:21He got called for so many penalties in college.

179:23>> So he got that's who they benched him for. That's who played instead.

179:27>> He stinks.

179:29>> So like they either are gonna play a guy they just benched or a guy who's worse.

179:34>> That's I mean every single Bills cornerback this year I think has over a 100 rating allowed in coverage.

179:42>> Yeah. Uh Christian Benford is is quarterback 71 in yards allowed per coverage snap. um and has been banged up. So

179:53the the Oh and they're also they may be without de offered as well out of the slot. So this is a really banged up and

180:01bad um coverage unit here and and one where I I think like we can probably count on Kurt Cousins to keep playing

180:09well. He was not good against the Dolphins in week one, which is a pretty big red flag. But since then in EPA per

180:14play, 71st percentile, 84th, 71st, 76th >> and for the season now, he's at 8.5 EPA per game.

180:22>> That's above where Drake May is. That's above where Matthew Stafford is. Like he has been good. You know, I don't think

180:30like I'm not if you're if we're setting lines at where guys have been so far, I'm taking the under on him. But, uh,

180:38you know, it is been an impressive start for Cousins and he he gets a a matchup against a defense that's really quite

180:45vulnerable through the air and and it doesn't look to me like, you know, I was worried with Clint Kubak, like is he

180:50going to be ultraconervative? They really haven't been. You know, they've had solid pass rates. We're now three straight weeks of them with a a pass

180:57rate that's at that's average or better.

180:5962% against the Saints, 67% against the Chiefs, 70% against the Patriots. Now, obviously, they're they're getting completely blown out by the Patriots,

181:08but, you know, it's this is a kind of a a defense on the Bills side that's starting to shape up as a little bit of

181:14a pass funnel with the Patriots and Rams playing aggressively against them with with a 4% POE from the Patriots, 7% from

181:21the Rams. Um, Bills aren't great against the run either, but uh this this does look like we're one where we could

181:27expect pass volume from or at least, you know, solid a solid passing day from the Raiders.

181:34I mean, they can't run. So, um, right.

181:36Well, at least they can't run with JY because he's hurt. But, uh, and they know he's hurt and they don't care.

181:41Like, the head coach is literally saying like, "Yeah, I think it's impacting him, but he's going to keep playing."

181:47Okay, thank you. Uh, the one thing that you do worry about though is just if the Bills get ahead, so the thing with Cousins is

181:56he's been really good in like the infrastructure of the offense, like all the Clint Kubak [ __ ] Yeah.

182:01>> And you'd expect that, right? like we do we to a degree but when like they get behind and they have to have like a

182:07traditional drop back game like it's been real bad and like Cousins has been bad in those scenarios. though. You do want the Raiders like hang in this game.

182:17Like you don't want it to be like last week like the you don't want him to br we can't ask Cousins to brette this

182:23>> Right. Right. Right. Right.

182:24>> Like we need we need it to be a punch a punching game.

182:28>> Uh and that that's what's good about the the Kubak stats is like he he understands too like they're not running

182:34well. So they do have to have early down passing stuff and that's what we're looking for here. Like may maybe even

182:38the Raiders go up a little bit. You know that that helps. But, you know, using play action, Kurt Cousins, I mean,

182:45fourth in completion rate, third in yards or pass attempts, seven touchdowns, no interceptions. You remove that, he goes to 18th, 16th, uh, four

182:53intercept, all his interceptions. So, like, you don't you want him running the infrastructure offense because he's just that type of quarterback right now. Um,

183:00so we need them to hang around and and make this a competitive game and not a game where you're like counting on

183:06garbage points from Kurt Cousins.

183:09I agree, but I think it should be competitive. Like the the Bills defense is is bad.

183:15>> It's not good.

183:16>> Yeah. And so, >> and they have they have a 25 point team total or 24.

183:22>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um >> it's not like the Cardinals game that's just like built out of the Rams one-sided team total.

183:30>> 100%. Yeah. They're expected to hang because I mean the Rams are good on defense in a way that that the uh the

183:35Bills really aren't. And then you know the thing about the Bills running like they have over the last three weeks like that the story of the

183:44Bills last year was to an extent letting teams hang around not putting team not putting bad teams just like immediately being like you aren't on our level.

183:54You're not going to be able to hang right and just like get up big and then you consult away the game. But they

184:00would like kind of, you know, they just they just played too conservatively and let some of these teams hang around and

184:05and, you know, cost them in certain cases. So, I don't think they're going to lose the Raiders, but I could see

184:11them let them hang around. And I could see the Raiders playing more aggressively than, you know, we would have thought entering the season and

184:18helping themselves that way.

184:20>> The Chargers hung around.

184:23They hung Yeah, that I I really do. I think that the Bills like if you're telling me the Bills are going against

184:30the best team in the league, I'm like they'll be fine. But it when it's like when they go against these teams that

184:36aren't that great, I'm like uh >> oh, you know, it's it's it's kind of nuts.

184:42But Brock Bowers, I I in the write up I um I included his wide receiver percentiles. I just changed him to a

184:49wide receiver and so he came out. Uh 94th percentile in yards per outr run, 93rd percentile in first read target rate, 94th percentile in target share,

184:5899th percentile in first read target share. Uh he's 98th percentile in PPR points per game because he's averaging 24.4 points per game. The dude is really

185:08good. 75th percentile in open score. He is playing receiver. Like he's straight up playing wide receiver. Uh

185:16>> so uh 41% of his snaps out wide. uh 44% in the slot and 14% in line uh on the

185:26season. So he is barely lining up as a tight end and um Michael Mayer, you know, still his participation was down

185:35last week, but he's still basically their starting tight end with with Bowers as a receiver. But Bowers isn't just like, >> you know, he's kind of a receiver like

185:43he's like >> one of the best receivers. and the Bills like the the thing we were looking last week if Gonzalez played like to see like

185:50can he like go against elite quarterbacks or would a team shadow him like that? There's no one here you you're worried about you're worried

185:58about here >> doing that. Um yeah, he's >> I'm most worried that we're going to get uh Benosen hold like holding him or

186:05center. Yeah. Yeah. like and then we don't get the you know >> I mean if anyone watched that dude in college like that dude got so many

186:11defensive holdings >> is that goes for genty we get genty one yard we might get the one yard the one yard plunge pass interference Brock

186:20Bowers is gonna we're gonna be mad that Brock Bowers draws the end zone hold and it's going to set up a JD one yard

186:27touchdown >> yeah dude I just docked Bowers projection um Yeah, it's absolutely He's absolutely

186:38just He is the football robot from heaven.

186:40>> He really is. Trey Tucker spot too. Like I >> a solid spot here.

186:44>> You can I don't I'm not My expectations are low for Trey Tucker, but like still a spot where like in this game

186:52environment like you would take a swing.

186:54>> Like it's >> you would take a swing. I have him as a wide receiver four. You would take a swing.

186:59>> Yep.

186:59>> Um sorry, you were about to say something before I distracted you with Trey Tucker. Uh, I don't I don't remember what it was. It was probably

187:04something about just Bowers being great.

187:05>> Bowers being a football robot from heaven.

187:07>> Yeah, being a football. Yeah. I mean, even as a receiver, if you just count his outride stuff, like out when he

187:13lines up as an actual wide receiver, like out wide, not in the slot. He's targeting 33% of his routes. He has 3.7

187:20yards per out run.

187:22>> That's crazy, dude. Like, >> that's crazy.

187:26That's crazy, man. Unbelievable.

187:29Yeah, there's the Yeah, Mayor is a little too cute for me just because it's such whack-a-ole like his target sh >> It's too whack-a-ole. Yeah.

187:36>> Yeah. I just kind of more mean to say like >> and he's a low A dot dude too. Like >> Yeah.

187:41>> Um Tucker like you know what you're signing up for like so this would be a spot like >> if you catch a long one u you know Bills

187:48would just be like we talk about their corners. They're all bad.

187:51>> Like if you're building stacks of this game and and Tucker shows up. I'm not I don't hate it. Well, I think if you're

187:57gonna play Cousins at all, you have to play like you you have to play more than Bowowers because like we've already been

188:02getting there at Bowers, but if like he's going to have a 303 game, like someone has to do something else and

188:07Tucker would just be the obvious dude.

188:10>> Yeah. Yeah. Cody White is is I guess the other guy right now uh with Naylor out.

188:16Um Cody White's actually been targeted at like a shockingly high rate, 21% targets per out run, but he doesn't play >> all of the snaps. 62% and 58% ra

188:27participation over the last two weeks.

188:29So, uh, that 58% is probably like a little bit better than it seems because they did pull some guys at the end of

188:35the the game. So, I don't I'm not sure if he was one of them or not. If you're pulling Cody White, then things have

188:40gone off the rails.

188:44>> We got Dylan L these touches.

188:46>> Yeah, man. Well, speaking of uh Ashton Genty, last week lost 9% target share to Lowi. He still had a 15% target share

188:55though. I might be more bullish on Genty here than you are because of the receiving and this maybe being a back

189:01and forth.

189:01>> No, no, it's still there.

189:03>> Yeah. I mean, the the rushing stuff's been awful, but but he he's 1.89 yards per out run. Um he's got a 17% target

189:11share even with LA siphoning off 9%.

189:14Last week he was at 15%. And I it seems like he's healthier going into this week than he was going into last week. week

189:20he looked like when dur like after we did this show and on the week like it looked truly like he was like oh he's

189:25probably not going to play right like >> and then um he did and he's still 50 receiving yards like that's what's just

189:33it's just really what's keeping him alive. He's third in receiving yards amongst running backs. He also he has at least 37 receiving yards in four or five

189:40games. He's at least three catches in every game. Like that's and Buffalo is allowing the second most receiving points per game to running backs. Like

189:47it's the stuff that's just keeping him afloat. And eventually he's going to get a touchdown. Maybe like I said this the

189:53whole this is the game these Bills DBs you get that one yard touchdown run.

189:57That's what we need.

189:59>> That would be so funny if that happened.

190:01>> I hope it does. I hope it does man.

190:02>> I hope it does too.

190:03>> I'm cheering for it. Well, I mean they found out too that he's got we thought he just had the ankle and then it came

190:09out and they told he's got planner fasciitis which is like oh god like this is like something that's gonna be a

190:13whole year thing now.

190:15>> Yeah. um that we're going to have to deal with. And like we thought it was just the ankle.

190:21>> We saw no Mike Washington though. Mike Washington play.

190:23>> No. No. Mike Washington. Yeah. Uh 6% of carries last week.

190:28>> Yeah man. He didn't do nothing.

190:29>> Just script it out. But I mean this is a game where you would expect I mean if like the Patriots just put it on you and

190:34you're you're about to play the Bills like >> Yeah, dude.

190:37>> Yeah. It's >> Well, Patriots defense is a lot better than the Bills.

190:43Even without the guys that they had, they're just a they're just a better unit, man.

190:47>> But I more mean like you are chasing.

190:49Oh, yeah. Like from the second, you know, you're you're getting down in the in the starting block like, "All right, this is a this is going to be a race.

190:56You cannot be I mean, I think part of the reason the Bills have been sort of becoming a little bit pass like you just

191:01have to score points against them."

191:03>> Yeah. And then this is going to be the thing with the the Raiders like maybe this is where we we kind of get to where

191:10we always thought, right? like a they hung with the Chiefs, but then now you go Bills, Rams, uh then you have a 49ers

191:17game. You do get a Jets game mix in there, but like can they actually just like continue to hang with like these

191:23level of offenses?

191:25>> No, they can't.

191:27>> Probably not.

191:27>> They can't. But they can maybe make them fun make these games fun. I mean, eventually we're getting Mendoza here, right? Like that's

191:33>> Oh, eventually. Yeah.

191:34>> You know, >> not anything like last week wasn't a benching. It was literally just like might as well get him. Might as well let

191:39him play some.

191:40>> Yeah. No, it was Yeah, it was this game's over. Let's see what we have.

191:45>> Let's just play it. Yeah, it's a good opportunity to let him go throw throw some passes.

191:50>> It became practice.

191:53>> Yeah. So, yeah. Beautiful. It should it should be a fun game, like I said, because it's like that's the sneaky part

191:59of it is this game totals for both because this Bills defense hasn't been good.

192:04>> Not at all. Um, all right, that'll do it. Uh, tell the people what you got going on at Sharp Football Analysis.

192:12>> Yeah, writing up every games, uh, in the worksheet. If there's something we didn't touch on, there's lots more, like you said, nuggets, lots more detailed,

192:18uh, information in there if you want to check that out. At the end of the week, I write up everyone that I'm going to

192:22play in DFS, you can check that stuff out, too. Uh, then just knock on wood that no one else gets hurt for the rest

192:27of the weekend.

192:28>> Yeah, for real. Um, all right, check everything out we got going on at Legendary Upside. uh rankings updated right up until kickoff. Uh all the other

192:37games written up as well. Uh and Steph Miller's fabulous football waiverwire article is a must readad every week. Uh good luck in week six. Thanks for

192:47watching and we'll be back here for the week seven angles and upside. See you then.

More episodes from Legendary Upside

6

The Cardinals Defense is the Wagon Maker #bestball #fantasyfootball artwork

The Cardinals Defense is the Wagon Maker #bestball #fantasyfootball

Oct 18, 2026

A Colston Loveland Spike Week Would Hit Like a Cigarette Right Now #bestball #fantasyfootball artwork

A Colston Loveland Spike Week Would Hit Like a Cigarette Right Now #bestball #fantasyfootball

Oct 18, 2026

If James Cook Stops Fumbling He's Going to Boom #bestball #fantasyfootball artwork

If James Cook Stops Fumbling He's Going to Boom #bestball #fantasyfootball

Oct 17, 2026

Light Your Dameon Pierce FAAB Dollars On Fire #bestball #fantasyfootball artwork

Light Your Dameon Pierce FAAB Dollars On Fire #bestball #fantasyfootball

Oct 17, 2026

Can Sean Payton Resurrect Jaylen Waddle??? #bestball #fantasyfootball artwork

Can Sean Payton Resurrect Jaylen Waddle??? #bestball #fantasyfootball

Oct 11, 2026

Is this the Week that Chase Brown Goes Boom??? #bestball #fantasyfootball artwork

Is this the Week that Chase Brown Goes Boom??? #bestball #fantasyfootball

Oct 10, 2026