0:02Welcome to the Legendary Upside podcast and YouTube channel. My name is Pat Crarane. You can follow all my content at legendary upside.com. With me today,
0:10sacrilegious and shady advice for the Top Guy Tuesday mailbag. Guys, how's it going?
0:16It's going well. Uh just finishing up my four DK promos for their flash promo. Uh got a couple of some of my favorite
0:26teams so far this summer here for this this little promo. Uh we are >> I didn't see it officially in September.
0:32>> I mean as soon as we're done got until 10 Eastern tonight. So >> get those in once all you sickos got
0:40your four in and then get some softer rims.
0:45>> I have opted into the promo and I I have something to do after this this stream. [laughter] >> Uh yeah. So we're going to be answering
0:53questions from the chat. Uh, I yeah, I told I told the leg up Discord that I'd be hopping on with you guys in 30
1:00minutes. Exactly 30 minutes ago. Uh um, so we're going to be answering questions that people threw in the the leg up Discord as well as in the chat.
1:11So throw in any questions that you have for me, sacrilegious, shady, whatever you got, we'll answer them. We are also going to be drafting a uh best team just
1:22by clicking the top recommendation on the sidekick. I think that's going to be a DraftKings uh $25 basketball millionaire team because I got a promo to fill, guys. U
1:33so I've jumped in that. Um but yeah, throw in any questions and and we'll get kicking
1:41uh answering those. Uh so from the from the Oh, as I get some questions ready, do you want to share your story, Shady
1:51about uh your attempt to draft Top Guy earlier?
1:55>> Yeah, sure. Uh so we were like having the cloud outages earlier today. And so like um stuff was all a little bit
2:03chaotic as I was trying to do a was it a hound dog or something? I know with a 250 that Underdog just released. So I
2:10was doing that and I was doing a $40 at the same time.
2:13And I get about into round 14 or 15 um maybe even 16 of the 250 and I'm like wow it's really okay with one
2:24quarterback just hurts through this many rounds. That's surprising. I haven't seen that many times. At that point I like bump my mouse or something and it
2:31like starts scrolling up but I realized that I've been like halfway scroll down the sidekick for like 12. I got like the
2:36first few rounds are correct. Like I had Bejan and like some normal pics, but at some point I had scrolled down to I
2:41think probably check where Jacobs was in the sidekick at some point. I was like, where where are we showing Jacobs? I
2:45scrolled down and then like I must have got a a bing bong on another tab. So I clicked over to deal with my bing bong
2:50and then I clicked back and didn't scroll back up. And so I did a, you know, probably eight rounds of 13th guy top clicking
2:5813.
2:59>> And then luckily noticed it in time to like pick up three random like late round quarterbacks to get I think four
3:05QPS and that build to go with Herz or three total to go with or four total to go with Herz up top. [snorts]
3:11>> You know, people ask good use of $25 or $250 [laughter] on a Monday or two Wednesday Tuesday.
3:19People do ask about kind of IK being and stuff and you know people have different player takes than we do and you know you
3:26can sometimes push guys around. There's certain guys that you know are falling in draft which we we try to account for
3:31in the sidekick but you know sometimes you're like you know I'm going to I'm going to risk this guy coming back or uh
3:36I feel overexposed to this guy or I'm trying to get more of this guy in drafts. There's a number of reasons why
3:40people might not just click the the top recommendation every time. I've never recommended clicking the 13th recommendation [laughter] every time.
3:50Yeah, this will be the first draft ever where I'm not 99.9% top guy and I [laughter] can no longer say that much.
3:57>> You did think you were though.
3:58>> I was intending to.
4:00>> Yeah, I should actually go look and see like I I did I looked at the 80. So I looked at the ADP and my pick number
4:07edit what I noticed and the worst one I did was like I think 50 p picks past 80p. I took someone at like 200 who was
4:16uh in that pick like 160 or something like that which you know whatever >> we allow that >> not going to get the draft thrown out so
4:23it's it's there forever. [laughter] Um questions about uh Josh Jacobs draft ability um versus Marshon Lloyd's draft
4:35ability. I think that's something we might see in this draft. Let me just pull up the ADPs on DraftKings right here and see. So,
4:42Jacobs is down to 82, but he'll go after that, I would imagine, in this draft.
4:47Lloyd is up to 93. I would bet he goes before that in this draft. Both guys are, you know, moving up and down,
4:54respectively. But, um, I think there are scenarios where Jacobs is still draftable. It's obviously quite risky.
5:02Uh, I did the Great Dane over on Underdog last night and uh, that's a four of 12 advance and I did there's there's a four max. I ended
5:14up with Jacobs in the eighth round of two of the four teams. Um, which I felt pretty good about especially with the
5:23four of 12 advanced structure. you know, if he gets a six maybe eight game suspension uh and comes back and you
5:32build around him with the expectation that that is what's going to happen, um then I think, you know, he could he
5:39could make a difference down the stretch. Obviously, that's not a guarantee.
5:43Um he might not be on the Packers, he might not be playing football all season. you know, there's a number of
5:48ways it can go real bad, but uh you know, I think in certain contest structures, you could consider them there.
5:57In something like this, I think we're probably looking more like in the 90s or 100s. Um, does that align with what you
6:03guys have seen? Uh, based on on the way we have things in the Sidekick right now, >> yeah, I'll see them as early as in the
6:1080s and as late as in the 120s. Um, it just, you know, it'll it can fluctuate pretty widely depending on the subset of
6:19Sims that you get. Uh, I think I also got two of my four Great Dane teams with Jacobs last night.
6:27>> I one was in the 90s and one was I think like late 80s and I was was pretty happy about I would have been happy if I got
6:34all four of them with him at that price, you know. So >> yeah, I know a lot >> you might have more risk talents than I
6:40I I don't think I would wanted all four, but but two of four felt fine to me with a four of 12 structure. Yeah,
6:46>> for sure. I I know a lot of people are wanting to kind of people are talking about, oh, I need to get my Jacobs down.
6:53I want to draft a bunch so I can get my Jacobs exposure down. And I I just kind of think when you get a really good
7:00price on a player, if that risk is appropriately priced in, which I think our inputs have it, uh you should probably just draft them. Like if you're
7:09if you're scared, go to church, you know, but I would not be entering drafts with the purpose of I'm not going to
7:15click Josh Jacobs no matter what. It would be I'm going to click Josh Jacobs when the price is right.
7:21>> Yeah, I think that makes sense. It is interesting because he is going sometimes quite earlier, you know, so it's not like you're constantly faced
7:28with the choice. Sorry, Shady. Go ahead.
7:30>> I was saying I I don't think I don't think it's Sim subset. I'm noticing that I get him on teams that can get him
7:37>> and the seasons he plays that his buy doesn't matter. It's like this is someone who is going to if they come
7:44back in the seasons they aren't suspended for the whole season. if you can get them there, they're a very interesting piece to have on a team that
7:52can get them there. But on teams where I don't like I can't get him there or that doesn't have a path for future picks
7:58that will get it there, like I'm not seeing him, which is I think a fun way for it to try to solve what his
8:04distribution in the season looks like right now where it's like the value changes drastically based on what your current team looks like at the point
8:10that Jacobs is around.
8:13>> Yeah. Yeah, depending on like I got uh Marshon Lloyd I think in the eighth last night. I believe it's on DraftKings and
8:22then I got Josh Jacobs late like in the 115 or 120 range and end up taking both of them. Um and I think if you're
8:32getting both guys, you know, where you're not having to spend up a ton for Lloyd, there is a situation where you could see that
8:41really working. Even though, you know, it's handcuffy in a way we don't normally like love, but it is it is like
8:49these two picks combined are probably going to outperform the the combined draft capital. So on certain again on certain teams where that that makes
8:58sense. It's not like I, you know, I I was multitabling a good amount last night. I only think saw that one time,
9:05but um figured I'd mention that that is that is something that's popped up for me at least once. I've I've gotten that
9:13a few times as well and I was not displeased with it. I think one of them was like Lloyd at pick a 100 something
9:19and then Jacobs fell a bunch and I got him in the 130s. It's like that seems really good. I'm good with that.
9:25>> Yep. Yep.
9:27Um let's see. You you often mention quote this profile isn't what I'm looking for in X round. Have you ever published what
9:36types of profiles you look for in each round? for example, in the 18th, you just want someone who can hit your
9:40lineup twice a year. I feel like I have done that with the sidekick. Like, isn't the sidekick kind of doing that um to an
9:49extent? I haven't I haven't like dug in like this is what you need for this price and for this price, but
9:56I don't I mean, I think that's you know, I'm trying to communicate more of a rule of thumb than, you know, if I were to
10:02say like here's exactly what you need for this price, it wouldn't be true. So there's a number of ways that, you know,
10:08a given pick could pay off. Um, they could really help you advance. They could have an awesome spike week in week
10:1516. Like, so it's it's tricky. But I do think I do think though it is an edge to at least consider that as the price
10:22drops, the bar for what a player needs to deliver on your team does go down.
10:28And you can look at, you know, the previous seasons of like, hey, was Luther Burden a good pick last year?
10:35like yeah he didn't do much for almost the whole year but he was still an awesome pick and you know what he cost a
10:44ninth round pick falling into the 11th or 12th round by the end. So, you know, I think you can um I do think that like players like
10:55Jeremy Bernard and Omar Cooper, Travis Hunter, even you you do want to keep in mind of what you're asking for is not like
11:05necessarily them to be the same type of league winning profile you would expect in round six or something, which like shouldn't be a huge edge, but I kind of
11:13feel like it is.
11:17Do you guys have any thoughts on that?
11:21>> I mean, I just I think that the vast majority of people you're playing against don't have any like any quantitative way of pricing
11:31like what a player needs to do or like outcomes. And so I I think you're just dealing with a market that's
11:38like extremely inefficient in spots, especially like some of these rookies where the outcome
11:48is scary for a lot of like a lot of the outcomes are are bad, you know, like these guys bust and do nothing all the
11:56time, but you know, when you're getting them in the 18th round, like that's a a pretty good bet when you consider what the
12:04upside looks like. And it's no coincidence that players of that archetype end up in tournament winning
12:13lineups pretty often. So I Yeah, I just think that you wind up with picks like that that get really really discounted
12:22and it's just the kind of thing that you want to take advantage of.
12:27>> Yeah. Yeah. And I think it is helpful to think through um you know if you're just having trouble like making the click like you know I
12:35get like Omar Cooper is not the most fun click but he's so cheap right now and he's a first round pick. He does look
12:43like he's going to start you know have a pretty decent role right out of the gate as the slot guy.
12:50And it's like, yeah, what if he has two good games, you know, what and one of them's in week 15, like boom. And you
12:59know, one thing that might help too with this type of stuff is going back and looking at some of the teams who drafted
13:06early, you know, either early in baseball mania or pre-draft because I was doing that last night. I was looking at some teams
13:14and it's like, oh yeah, I was taking sters, wasn't I? [laughter] and he's kind of a bet on draft capital and everything that it doesn't look like
13:24it's going to work out. But you look at some of these and I think we did a good job generally of avoiding some of like
13:31the the true definitely going to be zeros guys like it like we didn't draft a ton of Jaden Blue and stuff like guys
13:37who didn't make the team. We don't have those guys generally. Um we've got you know we've got some Tank Dell who's on
13:44either PUP or IR whichever one it is. Um but he looks like he's going to come back I think hopefully at some point. Um
13:53but I think generally we did a good job of avoiding zeros but even then you know we we did take some and you know you're
14:01like we have some we have some Mike is sicki that's not going to work out. I have some Ronda Gatson doesn't look so
14:05great right from the early going. And if you if you find a guy who's still like very live to score points late in the season for
14:16free, that's pretty awesome. You know, it's like actually kind of hard to do. So, so yeah, just looking back at like the
14:24teams you drafted months ago, I think is a good reminder of like that's not easy.
14:29It's not easy to put together a parlay card of 18 to 20 guys that are all still live several months later to help your
14:37team.
14:42Yeah, I think we [clears throat] we I think the question is about uh picks at this price. And I think I hear you say
14:49that more in reddraft formats and I think that makes a little bit more sense that there's like certain prices for certain teams that a certain archetype
14:57makes more sense for. I think in best ball there are all sorts of profiles that make sense at all sorts of different
15:04rounds based on the team you already have. And so like I don't right >> there's no such thing as that a profile
15:09is the right thing for this ADP around.
15:11It's like okay I built a team that is >> structured this way with this sort of way that the puzzle fits together and so
15:18this is the right piece to start making my puzzle look the best it can. Um and you sort of just do that. I think the
15:24market in best baseball is probably such that that looks different and it's a less sort of blanket statement uh possibility than what you would see
15:34on an FFBC main event or the other things where I think you hear a lot more like this is not the profile I want in
15:39this pick like we're looking for upside for our sort of reddraft purposes.
15:44>> Yeah, that's true. I I think a lot of times I'm, you know, like um like a Jonah Coleman or something in in reddrafts, you I
15:53start to think just more about like the pure ceiling of a guy quicker in reddraft. And it's like, does this guy
15:59have the profile to be someone that I find out reasonably quickly has a role?
16:06They look good. The offense is a high ceiling for them to, you know, to perform. there's a there's going to be a
16:13path for maybe another guy to be underperforming and so I know that I should keep them on my roster as opposed
16:18to cutting them. And so, yeah, you're looking for a little bit more of like a specific type of profile sometimes in the later
16:26rounds than you are in baseball where a guy like Calvin Ridley certainly doesn't have the reraft profile I'm looking for really in any round, but I draft a
16:34decent amount because there's teams that can use Calvin Ridley in in baseball and he's not likely to be a total zero. uh
16:42and you know on a team that could use some some wide receiver production, some depth, particularly in the early going, uh you know, he he can help fit that
16:52that puzzle.
16:54>> You're also not trying to run a sprint, right? You're not trying to have the highest score out of >> whatever that is over a bunch of weeks.
16:59You're just trying to win a bunch of pods and a relatively small final.
17:04>> Yeah, kick drafting has been fun. Much appreciated. Love the early bags of dbo digs and dribbling. Not enjoying the 15%
17:11Jacobs. Yeah, that's about where I'm at as well and mostly in the fourth round.
17:17Um, which is, you know, not something I'm enjoying either, but, you know, we'll see. I was looking through some of the the teams I have with them and it's
17:25like I took four running backs in the first five rounds. Maybe I can maybe this team gets through. But yeah, um,
17:34the dribbling stuff, if you want to go to apps.leerupsite.com legendary.com and uh filter by your dribbling teams.
17:41That's a fun exercise. [laughter] >> Yeah, sort by ADP CLV and uh and look at dribbling there.
17:46>> Yeah, that's a good one.
17:49>> Uh Jacobe Lane, too. I've I've got some fun Jacobe Lane stuff.
17:54>> Uh all right, so through uh six rounds here, Aman St. Brown, Brock Bower, Z Flowers, Travis ETN, and Quinchan Judkins. Oh, and Carnell Tate
18:06is the sixth guy there. Uh, how do you top guy without Hunter, Aaron Jones, and Omar and uh Omar Cooper? I'm
18:15trying.
18:17I mean, you can. So far, >> we're not range for any of them. Yeah, we haven't we [laughter] haven't clicked a single one.
18:29>> Uh, thoughts on Chargers beat reporters saying Keaton will go on IR. Packers insiders claiming the video will end Jacob's career when the GM hasn't even
18:37seen it. How do you know who to trust? I would say like the the second like kind of bigger news breaks. I'm probably
18:43trusting everything less. Like there's always there's a bunch of [ __ ] accounts online. I don't know if you've noticed, but there's a lot of crap
18:51online.
18:52So yeah, I saw some, you know, I'm extremely skeptical following everyone's got sources and stuff. I I don't know. It's uh I I think on on
19:04those types of situations, we're trying to think through what what is most likely given the evidence that we can trust and you know historical precedent
19:14and and the context of that situation rather than trying to lean on someone who's got inside information because you just Yeah.
19:26What's up fellas? Thoughts on Emma Johnson pricing now with recent roster cut of Amari de Makado leaving primary pass catching. Uh Bashard is the only
19:34other running back on the roster. I got Emma Johnson top guy yesterday. Have you guys seen him?
19:40>> Yep. Yeah, we came up on him pretty, you know, pretty reasonably um after Amari de Marcato got cut. Uh it does seem like
19:50he's one where the market is like pretty into him. So, I think we're getting him a little bit less than you'd expect
19:58given his ADP. I think he does kind of go ahead of ADP a lot right now, but he's definitely one that's popping up
20:05now as top guy in the Sims.
20:07>> Yeah.
20:09Yeah. I think we, you know, I feel good about not chasing these these, you know, guys who we weren't sure were the running back to until we
20:20felt really good they were the running back, too.
20:23um which included Emma Johnson. I've probably been more on the like let's raise Emma Johnson train of the group, but I feel feel like we were real
20:32prudent with him because there was a chance that you know he's the RB4 all year uh and just not a factor at all. It
20:39looks like he will be a factor and uh let's see he's got an ADP of 182.
20:49I don't know if we'll end up seeing him at that price a ton. I mean, that's Yeah, it's kind of like early 16th
20:55round.
20:58If he was I bet I bet around 1707 he'd probably be close to the top guy if we needed a running back there. When I've
21:05gotten him, it's been teams where I'm like either Gibbs or Bejon and then just like no run like very hardcore anchor
21:14running back and then it slams a bunch of the interesting late guys.
21:18>> That's where I've seen him most pop up >> recently.
21:22>> That makes sense to me.
21:24But yeah, he's definitely on the menu.
21:26Malik Davis as well. We we're now seeing a little bit of late, but he's not completely free now either.
21:33Uh I mean uh 204 so you know not super expensive but uh I have seen him top
21:42recommendation as well but yeah that's here you know before we pick in the 18th so close to close to free not truly
21:52truly free.
21:54There goes Marshon Lloyd. No sign of Jacobs yet. Marshon Lloyd was a little bit further down. Uh, we do have three
22:03running backs, so not a huge priority, especially with Tony Pard kind of being more the the uh the hit the ground
22:09running type of play. Jacob's down here behind Kelsey, so probably a couple rounds away from where we'd see him at least one. Anyway,
22:23kind of another similar question to the one before. What does success look like for the late season round guys? For the
22:29late round guys like Kar, Jeremy Bernard, Travis Hunter, etc. I know it'll vary a lot team to team, but it's a baseline you have in mind. I'll throw
22:35that to you, Sack, on the Colar front.
22:37What are what are you hoping for as the foremost Charlie Colar bowl?
22:42>> Uh, as far as like measuring success internally because I I really try to be super process driven with all of our
22:48stuff. If we were well calibrated on the Colar inputs when we go and test all that, I'll be really happy. Um, if now
22:57from a results standpoint, I'd be even more happy if Colar, you know, exceeds our wildest dreams, I I think as the
23:05foremost Colar bowl in in the rankings team, I do feel pretty good about where we have his inputs. There was a stretch
23:13where I was like, I think we could go even higher, but I I do I've come around to the fact that I think we've got him
23:18pretty well dialed in. Um, so yeah, if Charlie Kohler has a couple games with a touchdown, I think that's pretty good.
23:29Um, I I did see uh I think his seasonl long >> Did you take that?
23:34>> I I'm not in a state where I can. Um, and it's not it's not on any prediction markets. Shockingly, no one wants to
23:41market make for Charlie Kar seasonl long TD prop.
23:44>> How do you not How have you not become a market maker for this? But for anyone out there that is in a state with legal
23:50sports betting, uh, looks like the Charlie Kolar seasonl long touchdown prop line is set at two touchdowns and depending on the book, you could get it
23:57at plus 650 plus 600. I think I we were talking about it in the rankings chat.
24:03I'm pretty sure I take if the line is set at two, I take that at even money.
24:08So plus 600 feels really really good to me. I mean, [ __ ] man. like Durham Smite was getting two and three touchdowns
24:16with Mike McDaniels and like you can you can look at like Will Dley in the Chargers offense is like a a comp like
24:23yeah two feels like a a pretty nice line. Um so I >> as sad as it is and especially for a guy
24:30that we do take I do think Will Dley is like a bit of an upside comp from one from that season that he had a couple
24:36years ago. Um but I do hear I mean I I agree with you that two touchdowns Uh, I would I would take the over at
24:44even money on that.
24:45>> Even like even like Tyler Conklin as a comp, you know, I I do think that you get a little bit of the we haven't
24:52gotten to see very much of this guy play in the NFL. So, you know, >> um, >> so I do think the ceiling ultimately is
25:00a little higher than that. Uh, even if our inputs lean much more conservative than that. So,
25:09>> yeah. So, uh, we're not asking for a ton from these late round guys, I think, is the the simplest answer. You're looking
25:18for a guy to to score a few touchdowns, hit your lineup, and kind of fit into a room and like help you, you know, build
25:27out production. If guys exceed that, which we would really like them to, that's awesome. But um you know, part of it is that we're just trying to build a
25:36team with like a lot of players who score points. Um and then some of those players will ideally score a lot of
25:43points. Uh but you you want ideally the whole team contributing. Like I have teams where I was looking I'm like this
25:50team is so sick, but the last two picks are uh are Sters and Chris Brazzle.
25:57>> [snorts] >> And that's a that's a bummer, you know, like that shouldn't >> you'd think like oh like compared to
26:04reddraft, right? Like who cares? It's like I hit on this this pick this pick this pick this pick and then like my
26:09last two picks sucked like doesn't matter. I I'll find replacements on the waiverwire. But just like assembling that that parlay card that get then gets
26:16locked in place with all those players.
26:19You you really don't want them to have no shot whatsoever to matter. Um, so I think for me with Kolar, like I want him
26:27to be like running 60% of the routes, like that's where I'm like, "Oh, yeah."
26:32You know, like >> if he if he's getting, you know, play action snaps when they're, you know, near the goal line, I like if I if Kolar
26:39runs, you know, five routes on play action near the goal line, I'm like, "Cool, that was a great process pick. We
26:45nailed that."
26:46>> Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. And And you're then live, you know, you're live headed into the playoff. He goes so late. Like
26:53he could do literally nothing all season as long as you've got decent tight end production. He could just he's out there
26:59running routes. He's really not productive.
27:01But if he's running routes in a great offense, he's live to spike by scoring a touchdown, catching four balls, you know, having a having a useful week for
27:10you and an important week that gets you through a pod. Like that's an incredible use of a 17th, 18th, 19th round pick. Um
27:18Oh, here's Jacobs. Jacob's the pick here at 114. This is on a team with Judkins, ETN, and Pard. So, we'll see how the
27:30rest of the build goes.
27:32>> Uh we had we had a Jacob's question. Uh well, we had a we had a question for you actually before that. What should I do
27:39if I'm typically more scared in church?
27:41>> I I can't help you there. You know, I'm sure that there's, you know, some someplace out there for you to go if
27:47you're scared.
27:48>> [snorts] >> What if you uh are on the clock in a slow draft like round six to eight and you already took Jacobs? Do you need
27:55extra running back or assume he is coming back? I would uh not assume that he is going to not get suspended. I
28:03think you need to work around the idea that he gets suspended, probably comes back at the end of the season, but you're not you're not
28:13building like he's a total zero, but you're also not building like somehow he just comes off the exempl list like he's
28:19missing six games now. What do you do?
28:22That that would be where I'm at. What about you guys?
28:25>> The question is, what do I do? The sidekick knows that this is now the truth in a slow draft and it answers the
28:30question for me. So, I talk like the sidekick is the answer.
28:34>> And and what I've noticed on slow drafts that I have where I had Josh Jacobs earlier and then it's later it's I mean
28:40the sidekick is always into Aaron Jones, but it's really into like Aaron Jones, Rashad White, like those types of guys.
28:46It's like you know what would be really cool? What if Aaron Jones and Rashad White traded off scoring 10 points for
28:52your team every week for the first six to eight weeks of the season and then you just got to not use those guys
28:57anymore and you had Josh Jacobs come in.
29:00So, I've had I've been on the clock in slows where I've got five running backs and Aaron Jones is top guy and like we
29:06like Aaron Jones and you're you're going through a bunch of slows and you're like, "Come on." Like, what I do I really need
29:12Aaron Jones, my sixth running back. I'm like, "Hang on, [laughter] let me let me see who and and it's Jacobs is on the team, you
29:20know, like that's that is typically what's happening." Um, and so yeah, I mean I think I think the Aaron Jones and
29:28all both guys go. Uh, the sidekick was was probably banking on those guys helping helping me get this Jacobs team through. Um, but yeah, Rashad White,
29:39Aaron Jones, Chris Rodriguez, and Chuba, the guys who all went before I picked again after Jacobs, I think are
29:48pretty helpful uh in getting him through, assuming he's going to have, you know, six to eight game suspension, nothing that uh cost him the entire
29:58year.
30:02Uh, how do you build a Bowowers team when you miss uh, round two running back and wide receiver? Shady, what's your
30:09strategy for building Bowowers teams?
30:12>> So, I think about like where I should IK be in the draft and figure out how to get it through and then top sidekick
30:17itself.
30:18>> Are you top click or 13th click on that on Bowers team?
30:20>> Uh, it was not a Bower team on the 13th click. I safely say 13th click not the way to do a Bowers team.
30:26>> Okay, [laughter] good. Good. What about you? What about you, Seth? Uh, I am most of my Bowers teams are pure top click.
30:33The only ones that aren't pure top click are when I've two Bowers in the second round because I just want to feel
30:39>> right.
30:40>> Yeah. Yeah.
30:41>> He's my he's the one I am most guilty of IKBing two. Um, like if you looked at all of my IKBs, probably 95% of them are
30:50are me IK being two Brock Powers. So, one one thing I'll say is like I do when you have when you're underpowered at
30:58running back or receiver, I notice builds where you get uh you know, you have three onesies, three at both
31:06onesies. Um, and even with Bowers, you know, you can end up with those builds.
31:12And like I I think what's happening to a degree is you know it's like yeah you aren't going to score as many points at
31:18receiver or running back because you have Bowers, but you're going to score a shitload of points at quarterback and tight end and that's going to help get
31:24you through and ideally you've got a team that's really humming by the end of the season. Um, you know, that's that's
31:32one way I think, which is kind of counterintuitive, but I think kind of a fun build when you end up with a three
31:37tight end room with Bowers uh and three quarterbacks as well.
31:44Uh, Neighbors has always been a risky pick. Now, he said himself he might not play week one. What was your read on
31:51that, Zack, with with um with Neighbors talking about his his availability? I thought it was a little bit of a weird
31:57comment like I'll be ready for week one whenever that is. Like what do you mean whenever that is? That's that's we know
32:04exactly when it is. Something like a calendar. Uh not not super concerned. Um it seems like they're just trying to take it easy with him. Have we
32:14uh I don't think our our most recent article has not dropped yet with the the injury alpha >> that's going to drop on Thursday
32:22morning. We're gonna we're we're we're >> we're dropping a bunch of the injury alpha that we've we've used >> uh to this point um with our injury
32:31expert making his debut article. Uh yeah, Thursday morning. Matt Herby's got an article coming out tomorrow morning, uh, Apex score on the quarterbacks,
32:40which is cool because, um, Herby's kind of been in the lab on this Apex score and, uh, he just kind of revamped it for
32:50quarterback and had kind of a a different methodology for quarterback than he used for the other positions.
32:54It's a really cool read. Uh, and again it'll be out tomorrow morning, but he had it like this score that he was using
33:02is like here's the here's the guys you want to be targeting at quarterback this year. Patrick Mahomes, Brock Pury, Kyler Murray, Baker
33:11Mayfield, Daniel Jones. [laughter] Oh, oh, not CJ Stout on there, which uh which was and then his fade list was pretty uh
33:21pretty aligned with what we were doing as well. So, yeah, check check that out.
33:25But I think you'll you'll enjoy it if you've been drafting off the leg up ranks of the sidekick. Uh for sure. Uh
33:31but yeah, we've got the injury expert article dropping tomorrow or not tomorrow, Thursday. Thursday morning.
33:43I I was not particularly concerned about the neighbors thing to to answer the the neighbors part of the question.
33:47>> Yeah, I didn't want to spoil what's in the article.
33:50>> I I don't I'm trying to remember if I watched that one or not. I don't know that I did. It It's really He's like
33:56He's talking report. He's like He literally is like Yeah. Like sometimes like I go back and watch my cell phone tape and I'm like I was really moving.
34:05He's like I'm [ __ ] good, dude.
34:09It sounds to me like he's he's just like Yeah. Like I'm working back from injury.
34:15He he's he seems like the type of guy who believes he should be performing at the very best level in the entire NFL at the
34:23position. And so I don't think he feels like he's there 100% yet. But I don't I mean maybe misses week one, but that's
34:31not the vibes I really got from it that like oh he doesn't expect to play week one. I think he's just like got really
34:38really high standards for what his play should be and he's probably not going to be there week one. But that doesn't
34:44necessarily mean he won't play. You know, that's the nature of returning from an ACL tear.
34:50>> That seems good for us, Sin, because that is definitely what our sin inputs reflect. So, >> yeah.
34:59All right. I I am now through uh 13 rounds at quarterback. Jared Goff stacked with Omar St. Brown. Sam Darnold
35:10at quarterback. And then running back Travis ETN, Quinn Sean Judkins, Tony Pard, and Josh Jacobs. At receiver, Aman St. Brown, Carnell or Z Flowers, Carnell
35:21Tate, and Denzel Boston. And at tight end, Sam Laaporta, Travis Kelce, and of course, Brock Bowers. Someone asking about a Bowowers team. Here's the
35:29Bowowers team. Uh, it is three tight ends now. And, uh, two quarterbacks, but I think we'll add a third. So the triple
35:37triple double onesie was uh yeah that's looks like the way we're headed.
35:46Marshon Loin next to Trevion and the sidekick. What a journey we've been on.
35:49Yeah seriously is Carnell Tate derangement syndrome proof that some people are getting worse at fantasy. I would one thing I you know
35:58I've been doing fantasy football analysis my first article with published on road in 2014 and
36:07one thing I you know I people there's a lot of new people to fantasy every year there's a lot of turnover in this space you know that's
36:15something that is kind of I've learned over the years like oh yeah people that were doing this aren't doing this anymore and so I think to some extent
36:24it's like it's not necessarily people getting worse, but people are getting better, they're just new, you know? I think there's some element of that where like
36:34there's been lessons that, you know, if you've been doing this a while, you've learned and and maybe people are going to learn them for the
36:41first time because they're because they're newer at it. That'd be that'd be part of it, I think.
36:52>> Yeah. I would say chance people are getting worse at a peer-to-peer game.
36:55that's just not how things work uh ever.
36:59And so they're they're making different mistakes than they were before. Um and perhaps they're ones that we are exploiting more this year than we might
37:07others based on how we do things. But like, you know, markets get more efficient, not less. Mhm.
37:13>> And so I think it is probably more noticeable that there's like because prices are probably a little bit better than they have been or
37:22they are probably better than they've been historically that there people are making mistakes in directions that are more surprising to you. And so those
37:28mistakes feel like they're bigger or worse mistakes um compared to what you would expect those to people in your
37:38fantasy circles to be making. Yeah, I think the the market is definitely more efficient than when when I first started playing basketball really, you know,
37:47taking it a lot more serious like five years ago, the market was even worse than it is right now. Like there there
37:56was stuff that was just wildly mispriced. Um, and now it's definitely trending better. But I also think that people are more terminally online right
38:06now. you're more people are more like incentivized to share their most outlandish like attentiongrabbing opinions.
38:18And so I think you're incentivizing people to, you know, just just try and get attention rather than like share things that they actually believe or even if
38:28they do actually believe them. Like they're probably biased towards things that are going to be attentiongrabbing rather than things that are, you know,
38:36more consensus or evidence-based um or like quality evidence. If your evidence is, you know, I looked at the stats through training camp and, you know,
38:47Carnell Tate didn't really have huge plays in training camp like >> Well, he actually did. It just wasn't preseason.
38:53>> Yeah. No, no, no preseason stats. Yeah.
38:56>> Um and yeah, you know, if you take out the joint practice with the Bears, he actually he really didn't have great
39:03training camp stats. So, you know, if you remove that one from the sample, >> yeah, >> training camp stats does seem like our
39:10attempt to get better. That is actually that is actually making us work.
39:13>> Dude, I saw I saw people doing training camp stats. Literally a a beat reporter had tallied up every target in Jets
39:21training camp. Every target, every reception in Jets training camp. I'm like, [snorts] there were so many better things to do with your time. Like, of
39:30all the things that have no signal, this is absolutely one of them. you know, like I I I really don't know what it is
39:38that you're trying to glean from information like that. Um, and and stuff like that gets traction now. So, I think that's part of it.
39:46>> That is Yeah, that's part of >> and it gets amplified and so the things that are the stupidest also get the most engagement. And so, you're
39:55being shown that a lot. I So, I think that contributes a ton to our perception of like the market's getting dumber.
40:03It's like, no, there's always been people this dumb. They're just louder now and they're served up to you more because social media is ruining our
40:12brains.
40:14I also think that we have had rookie pricing that has not worked recently because it's been too expensive. So, I
40:24do think there, you know, we're going to we're going to we're working we're clearly like working as a market to find
40:30what the efficient price is on these rookie wide receiver profiles. I personally think we have overcorrected this season, but we had overcorrected
40:38the other way in previous seasons to try to make sure we didn't miss out on the next Jamar Chase. We're taking Marvin
40:44Harrison at the one-two turn. No one has a worse advance rate among rookie wide receivers than Marvin Harrison over the years because he was crazy expensive
40:54uh you know and just didn't at all live up to that price. And then Tener McMillan last year didn't have a great
41:01advance rate because he was also pretty expensive even though he's really good I think and we're we're taking him again you know in the fourth round. Um but
41:11there is you know I think that's always going to leave a bad taste in people's mouth. multiple seasons of big-time busts at rookie wide receivers
41:20because they were priced high. So, um I think that helps explain why, you know, you know, someone like Carnell Tate or
41:30uh you know, Mai Lemon or any of these guys who aren't like having incredible summers, they drop more quickly because people that's like the last thing that
41:37burned people, you know, is these these expensive rookie wide receivers. Uh, but not all of them are expensive this year as as we can see with Omar Cooper being
41:47available to us in round 16.
41:54Shady, there was a sidekick related question here.
41:57Uh, what do you think the biggest misunderstanding misconception is about the sidekick?
42:07>> Uh, I don't know. biggest most frequent are like two different words I could uh I think that I'll answer the like most prevalent
42:18version of that. I think there's lots of people who when they talk about what it's recommending, not talk about, when they the zeitgeist
42:26out there in the world are like, "Oh, it's optimizing for advance rate or it's like just trying to do whatever." And I
42:31think people are misunderstanding the direction that the recommendations are going versus like what the sidekick is actually doing, right? It's saying
42:40the thing that makes you the most money, but it turns out that maybe historically we've been overvaluing where you place in the finals compared
42:48to how often you get there, right? And so the the result of the recommendations is it looks like more teams are focused
42:54on advancing. Although I guess again this year with like the hyper fragile builds that doesn't really feel like a focus on advancement to me, but
43:00whatever. Um I think that would be like the most prevalent mis misconception is that people take away that. I would say
43:07like the biggest >> that it's like focusing on one part too much and not enough on the other part >> that that it that is what it does,
43:14right? The misconception is it focuses on advancement. That's not what it does.
43:17It focus on making the most money and sometimes based on what the market has been doing or whatever it is that looks
43:23like advancing is more important than you would expect it to be, right?
43:26>> I say like the biggest misconception is that it loves three quarterbacks. Like if I were to like that is not true
43:32really anymore, right? like it sometimes we get three quarterback Bills, we got one here, but like it once we had the
43:37schedule and then we knew the by-weeks, I would say that like that is the narrative that has been most repeatedly echoed that like three quarterback teams
43:44are super important and the way to correctly play and that I would say is the biggest biggest not most prevalent.
43:51I think that has like escaped [laughter] sidekick him um way beyond that and >> it's like a tweet that escapes like our
43:58little >> Yeah, that's not what that's not what it means like early in the season. The Sims are like you got to have three
44:03quarterbacks all the time. It turns out when you don't know when a quarterback is going to miss a week, it actually
44:07really is important to make sure that you maybe don't have two that miss the same week.
44:12And so that I think is like the I would say like the biggest misconception of people who still sort of know what it
44:17does rather than just the like not understand things.
44:22>> Yeah. Right now we're pretty much bang on even between two quarterback and three quarterback builds. I've looked at my drafts and I'm about 50% on each of
44:31them um in all the first draft stuff.
44:34Yep.
44:35>> Yeah. That's that though is like you're saying shady kind of related to the the point about you know advancing versus
44:42you know playing for week 17 and stuff because it's not relative to like which one are you doing more there is a
44:46market-based perception going into it and two quarterback was seen as kind of the default build and if we're I think even 50/50 I
44:57understand where people are going oh the sidekick loves three quarterback it doesn't necessarily mean it's a three quarterback team every time or even the
45:05majority of time is, you know, it can be literally a coin flip which one you get.
45:08But that still loves it more than we did before we had the sidekick. So I think that's part of the reason it's escaped
45:17containment that narrative.
45:19>> Yeah. About the same last year, right?
45:21Like this is not the new thing is you have to have three all the time. Like that's the new narrative for this year.
45:26And that was we were drafting about the same rate last year I think of two versus three. It was just right. Like it
45:31like oh three makes sense because you can get one in the 18th, 19th, 20th round. is a different like the narrative. Oh, three's three is bad now
45:37because you have to get your third and the whatever we got it 14th round. That can't be right. Yeah.
45:42>> The other thing about like what narratives are out there is for anyone that says like, "Oh, the sidekick is it's obviously just focusing on
45:50advancing." I I would bet my entire net worth that people making those comments have absolutely zero clue or ability to evaluate or measure that in any
46:01quantifiable way. That is like the most just vibes like well I I want to say something bad. What should I say? It
46:11focuses too much on advancing. Yes. It's okay. Have you have you measured that in any like you want to you want to show me
46:19how you came to that conclusion because I promise it's not in any way that is at all academic.
46:28>> Yeah. One one thing I would I would kind of note on the the misconception or narrative stuff is that like it kind of
46:34you know because the three quarterback thing is a funny time to to bring it up where we like Pennix now more than we
46:43did before.
46:45So, you're going to actually probably in the last week of drafts, you might end up kind of getting back a little bit more
46:53toward three quarterback builds, especially on DraftKings because we're like, "Hey, Michael Pennix is sitting here and he's probably going to start a lot of games and you have
47:04Drake London, so add Michael Penn." And and that's like that might be, you know, you like this guy has Daniels and Lawrence. If he
47:15had Penn available in the final round, he he took Shock, so you know, probably not there. But the if you had if you had
47:23Pennix in the final round sitting there, he'd be like, "Yeah, normally I wouldn't probably take a third quarterback here, but I have a guy who fits the team
47:31really well and is completely free." And that's I think one thing that's just like a kind of a more macro thing with
47:38the sidekick is like the the rules of thumb just don't really apply. Like if you just drop an awesome pick into the
47:45final rounds on a team that like kind of you didn't expect that that would happen, you you take that guy. You take
47:54him. You know, it's like the structure of a team is not really the point. It's not like in that case it would be three
48:00quarterback, but I mean you could you could apply that to running back. Like if you had five running backs and we're
48:04basically done and then you're on the clock and you know some injury related news broke and and you happen to be in range of the guy who
48:16benefits directly from that, you would take that running back who's now going to go in the sixth round. It wouldn't and be like, "Oh, a six running back
48:23build you. You're good at f No, dude.
48:27You don't the build is secondary to taking the player who's who's a smash in the round. And I think that's generally
48:33like to a to a lesser more obvious degree. That's happening all the time with the sidekick.
48:45Uh someone had a question about let's say you had too little Lloyd and you're going to be drafting some more. Um, and
48:52you're you're kind of you're kind of building out, you know, a decent number of drafts at the end here. Uh, what
49:00would you what would your kind of approach be? He says, without further exposing yourself to Jacobs, would you be kind of trying to chase some Lloyd if
49:09you didn't have any Lloyd to this point?
49:11We have some Lloyd, but not not huge bags, I would say, uh, before the Jacob stuff broke.
49:19I not to repeat myself, I wouldn't do that, you know, but if I were if I were so inclined to like I'll put myself in
49:29the space where I actually know for certain Josh Jacobs never plays football again. I'm confident in that, you know, I'd bet my life on it. So, if that's the
49:39universe I'm operating in, then I'm obviously never taking Jacobs. then I would be taking Lloyd even higher than we have him if you're cuz the only way I
49:50could see that being a rational thing to do is if you know for certain Josh Jacobs never plays football again and
49:56then I would just be taking Lloyd higher than than we recommend him. So I' I'd be paying attention to the sidekick seeing
50:02when Lloyd is starting to like kind of creep onto there and I' I'd just take him when he gets you know anywhere in
50:08the top like 12 or four. Basically, I'm just I'm trying to have 100% Lloyd in my drafts then if that's what I actually
50:15believe. Um, but yeah, it would require me to believe something that's I I need to have 100% confidence in >> You'd actually need the inside source
50:25that people are >> correct. Correct.
50:27>> Yeah.
50:29Yeah.
50:30>> The question is flawed. Like you shouldn't make minus EV choices because of past like >> welcome to the question is flawed with
50:38sh it's a sunk cost fallacy, right? like you've made you have a bunch of things that you don't like the cost of, you
50:43shouldn't make bad choices because you don't like the price of something you've done. Like it's pure sunk cost fallacy.
50:48Like you should make the right like if there's a line out there that is a good line for Lloyd and you're like I should
50:54bet that Lloyd that line is the same EV as some other line then you're like diversity says you should take that line
51:01with Lloyd because it reduces your variance on your season for whatever bet you're talking about. But like saying I have this thing that is true,
51:10how do I fix it absent a cost consideration for this other thing? Like yeah, the real is like if you just if
51:17you really are worried about not having enough Lloyd, go find Lloyd lines that you think are beatable and bet those because then if you bet the overs, you
51:23win on Lloyd. Um and it decorrelates with your Jacob stuff. But like you shouldn't be trying to make bad decisions just because of a sump cost
51:31you already have.
51:35That makes sense. The question is flawed. Uh, is Pacheco draftable in the last round? He went here in the 19th and
51:43I was like, "Oh, Pacheco." And we could probably use a running back that that mattered. Uh, Nick Singleton second here. Obviously, not a huge priority
51:52since Rarin's top guy, but um, no, I don't think Pacheco's uh, draftable at this point. No, I I mean, we barely
52:00thought he was draftable at all prior to going on IR like the whole summer. Um, we're we're just going to learn names in
52:07the Lions backfield, you know? It might be someone you've heard of before. Uh, might be someone you've never heard of, but
52:14>> could be smash, dude.
52:16>> Yeah, I do feel pretty good about Gibbs getting a lot of work.
52:20>> He's just gonna absolutely nuke. All right, so Eli Raridan is the pick here to close it out.
52:28Uh here's the team 3584. Now people I mean if the we didn't beat the three quarterback allegations. We did beat the
52:39were so focused on advance rate allegations because this is a a five running back team with Josh Jacobs. ETN Judkins pard kind of an anchor crew for
52:49the beginning of the season with late round late season uh upside tacked on with Jacobs and then Shawn Tucker in the
52:57running back room. So, you know, this is going to be six weeks probably with with ETN Judkins and Pard is the the primary
53:04running back scoring points. Um, but as I noted in some of these builds where maybe you're not the strongest for a
53:12part of the season, especially here at running back, um, it can make sense to be overpowered at the onesies and this
53:18team has four tight ends with Brock Bowers, then Sam Laora, then Travis Kelce and Eli Raridan. Ammon St. Brown, Zay Flowers, Carell Tate, Denzel Boston,
53:30Travis Hunter, Omar Cooper, Jeremy Bernard, Ted Hurst. That's a sidekick special. Look at that run. Uh that that's the receiver room getting us to
53:37eight. And then three quarterbacks, Jared Goff stacked up with Aman Ross St.
53:41Brown, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rogers stacked up with our guy Jeremy Bernard.
53:48Fun team. What do you guys think of uh of how this this played out?
53:54>> Are do you think these are officially our uh Infinity Stone wide receivers for this year?
53:58>> I would say this is pretty clearly the Infinity Stone. We have them every It feels like we have them every year with
54:04the sidekick, you know, just a group of four or five that you just get in a ton of drafts together.
54:10>> Well, this is more Yeah, last year we had Infinity Stone guys. It was a little earlier. It was like um it was Juanale.
54:18>> Yeah. Robinson, Pop Douglas. Uh >> do >> Yep.
54:25>> Um >> there's one more that was a >> basically a wide receiver.
54:28>> Oh, Bannon. Yeah, he he was a wide receiver. That's true. Uh yeah. So this year it's I guess yeah the guys we take
54:36all the time have moved a little later but we do take a lot of dos earlier on.
54:41We were taking a lot of wand that's changed >> early dos I guess.
54:44>> Who?
54:45>> Lemon.
54:47>> Oh yeah. Yeah.
54:47>> Our early >> Worthy. Worthy is a pretty pretty big guy early. Conpsion.
54:54Um Debo was he's moved up where we don't take him a ton.
54:59Uh Kenan. Keenan's kind of one of those Infinity Stone guys now.
55:04>> Yeah, he came on late.
55:06>> A little less so currently, but there was a there's a period where I was taking a ton of Keenan.
55:10>> Yep.
55:11>> Yeah. Yeah. Those are kind of the the guys early and then I would say Chris Bell has moved into We weren't taking
55:17much Chris Bell.
55:18>> We had a lot of Chris Bell now.
55:19>> We got a lot of them. Yeah.
55:21>> I haven't looked at my like 500 slow drafts that are mostly finished now. I think I've got like under a hundred
55:26remaining, but I would I would expect to have a whole big bag of Chris Bell in those.
55:32>> Yep. Me, too. Um, all right. Let's see other questions here.
55:39Give me Bashard Smith over Emma Johnson.
55:41I don't see much of a difference in his prospects. And Bashard Smith has a year of experience. This is I think uh this
55:45is an interesting one for me because I think it's the opposite. You don't want the guy with the year of experience in
55:52baseball. I I think generally you want the guy who the team doesn't know what they have and they might look at what
55:59they have and that might happen at the end of the year. So it depends obviously on the context. If a guy is just dead to
56:06play, you might want the secondyear guy. But Bashard Smith had his opportunity and didn't take it and now it looks like
56:12Emma Johnson's kind of ahead of him for for secondary rushing duties. So, I think you want to you want the guy who
56:18you don't know anything about generally because that guy probably has a higher ceiling. Uh, and if you have a floor that looks reasonably locked in with the
56:27role, uh, then then that's a bet that starts to look pretty tilt tilted to the upside. Also, EMTT Johnson like a little
56:35bit more of a traditional running back.
56:36He's about 10 pounds heavier, like more of a consolidator kind of guy where Bashard Smith is less of that. Um, so I,
56:44yeah, I do think I prefer EMTT Johnson.
56:50Um, yeah, me too.
56:54Uh, check out Drew Davenport for Jacob's stuff, but the court date is not that's not what's driving the timing on this
57:01from from what he has he has talked about. That's I believe his initial appearance. So, uh, the court case will probably be
57:09settled after the season. That's not likely to drive the the timeline as far as I understand.
57:16Uh, who has been your favorite chaperones at each position through the best ball season?
57:23Uh, Shady, who do you know? You know, off top of your head, who have you been clicking the most?
57:31>> Definition.
57:32>> Ridley. Yeah.
57:33>> A lot of the time I think we've this year that's weird. We've like flipped it almost. were like we like a lot of the
57:37late fragile ones outside of Ridley and you know dbo would have been the same like all of these vets who were going to
57:44sign fairly certainly I think they are probably the chaperon-ish picks then I guess you could count like Aaron Jones and Rashad White and JCM who was later
57:54like sort of these boring probably low upside but we'll score you points I I think the I think this year is not the year of the chaperon I think
58:05this is the year of the something else, but not didn't feel super chaperoni in a lot of drafts aside from those late
58:12players because there weren't a lot of exciting rookies aside from Lemon that went early.
58:20>> Aaron Jones for sure, Daltton Schultz at tight end, >> Calvin Ridley at receiver, and then >> at quarterback it's probably CJ Strad.
58:29Like he's the most chaperone one that we jam.
58:33Yeah, I'll say at let's see at receiver I'll say Debo because personally for me like I I had to go
58:45down the rabbit hole of Debo Samuels Instagram because we were taking so much Debo
58:53uh you know and he's in the 150s 160s and it's like it's not going to be that big of a win when he signs like I knew
59:04that and it hasn't been a massive win.
59:05He's now like he went in the 10th round of this draft, but like it was like he's underpriced for sure if as long as he's
59:12playing football. And I just like I literally found a YouTube series that he that he had which was not like was not
59:20easy to find. It was in a link in his Instagram story or something like I he needs to do a better job promoting this.
59:26Like this video might have more views than that video and he had like put some production into it. But it's uh it's
59:32called Offseason and it was him doing a bunch of football workouts and then like like lifting weights in ways that are
59:38like football, you know, like trying to get off press coverage and stuff and then running routes and catching catching the ball and doing receiver
59:44stuff. I was like, "Okay, he plans to play. I don't have to worry about, you know, Will Fuller, you know, soft
59:51retirement, you know, just doesn't ever play again, never announces it type of thing."
59:55And so, yeah, I I I would say he was he's my favorite chapron because of how deep down the rabbit hole I ended up
60:02going. Daniel Jones, I would say, uh, is is another late round guy we like at quarterback. Probably less of a true
60:10chaperone than Straoud because, you know, he's coming off an Achilles, but he looks like he's going to be hitting the ground running. Um,
60:17at tight end, Charlie Kolar, man, Charlie Kar's at this point looking like a chaperon, you know.
60:25And then at running back, I would say like Chuba Hubard falling when you can get him in the late 10th. Now,
60:33>> that seems like pretty pretty wild chaperone price. Uh, so I I do I do enjoy that. We're not slamming Hubard
60:41unless he falls, but we do >> like never chaperoned a field trip though, you know, like he's he's the uncle of one of the kids and they're
60:47like, "We really need a chaperone. Can you please >> Someone called out sick."
60:51>> Yeah. you know, one of one of the parents or one of the one of the teacher. He's a substitute chef around
60:56>> and they're like, "Is he trustworthy?"
60:58Like, I I really don't know. I can't I honestly can't vouch for him.
61:01>> Seems like we need a warm body. Yeah.
61:04>> He's got a SUV that can hold six. Like, we got to get him in now. Let's do it.
61:10>> I don't think he has any DUIs. Like, he's probably good.
61:15>> Uh Ollie says he's been doing this for 12 years, and the thought of spending his fifth on a Titans wide receiver
61:20makes him puke a I have good news about Carninal Tates's ADP, man.
61:23>> Yeah, it's a six now, buddy.
61:25>> We're in the six [laughter] now.
61:30>> Uh oh, did what did you think of the sack the the stat chasing FFPC team? Uh >> I really I really liked the stream. I
61:39thought I was it was the chat was triggering me a little bit. It was really sending me back to to stat
61:46chasing days when I would have to yell at people or or ban them. Um, I I probably would have been a little
61:53quicker on the trigger finger there. Uh, you know, just handing out some timeouts in chat. But, uh, I felt like the team
61:59was pretty good. I feel like Tony did a really good job hosting.
62:03>> Do you think you like the team more than Tony does?
62:05>> Yeah, I think I like the team more than Tony does. [laughter] And I I really felt like Neil and O'Hara, you know, had had their good
62:12takes. And I I did appreciate that they kind of they treated Dicko as like the dad of the team. Everyone was asking
62:19permission for, you know, who to who to take. So, >> it was a good stream. All >> he also had a good because his mic was
62:24on the wrong setting and so he was way louder than everyone else. So, he he also had kind of the dad
62:29shouting vibe.
62:33>> That was a good That was a good stream, man. Uh, couple questions. Uh, Sack, I'll throw this one to you. How do y'all
62:41evaluate your rankings after the season?
62:43Uh, do you want to get into a little bit of what we do?
62:46>> Yeah. to make sure we we did a good job >> without showing how the sausage is made too much. We have a process that we go
62:52through um during the NFL season as we are getting to realize results and see what's happening in real NFL games and
63:00we compare how well calibrated our inputs are to those actual results and that allows us to know if we were overly
63:10optimistic or underly optimistic or you know too too off base or have any systematic flaws in the way that our inputs are derived and how how those
63:19flow through the sims. Um, and so last year we had some places where we identified them as, hey, this was an
63:26area we can work on and improve. This is our biggest weakness. And I was really proud of how hard the team worked this
63:34off season and and how much I think we improved at the areas that we were weakest in last year. And on [snorts]
63:40our our most recent call actually, we talked a little bit um you know, reviewing the Jacob stuff and some of the other like pieces of uncertainty
63:49where we're really having to like kind of read between the lines on things and and figure out the likelihood of of
63:56different non-the football events. You know, I'll say um I feel like we had a really good team conversation there and discussed things that we think we can
64:07improve for next year. And of course, we still need to observe the season to see how well calibrated we are, but we've
64:13got a process that allows us to measure that. And uh yeah, I think I mean I think we improved a lot from last year.
64:21I think we'll improve even more uh you know, this next year going forward. It's it honestly is just fun because it's
64:27like, you know, playing baseball and getting to draft all the teams is very fun, but like trying to beat yourself like, okay,
64:34I know what I did last year and here's how I can improve at that. And just like being motivated to to do better than
64:42your past self is a a pretty fun endeavor for me. That's really motivating for me.
64:47>> Yeah. And it's a it's a process that requires, you know, a lot of different inputs. And so I think there's a even
64:53though it's one season of of you know the NFL, I do think there's a large sample of predictions that we made. Would you say
65:04that that factors in to our ability to calibrate?
65:06>> Yeah, we have a lot. Uh there are literally thousands [snorts] of inputs that go into the sidekick. So we've got a pretty good uh amount of
65:14observations that we can >> can make.
65:18>> Yeah, it's thousands. And sometimes, you know, like in September, you're like, "Yeah, it does feel like thousands."
65:24>> Yeah, [laughter] >> dude. I mean, the the real like you want like the grindiest feeling is when it's like preseason week one has started and
65:34so now you're getting like preseason game news and you've got training camp news. And I'm like, a lot of times if I
65:42wake up in the middle of the night during summer, I'll just go back to sleep. But when it's like preseason week
65:46one, if I wake up at 3:00 am, I'm like, there's plenty of articles to read right now.
65:51>> No. Are you serious?
65:52>> That's how you got to like 4,000 teams.
65:55>> Oh, I'm not drafting then. I'm literally just consuming as much information as I can while laying in bed. Like, so yeah,
66:02that's the that's the grindiest part for me when I wake up and know that I will not be able to consume all the
66:07information in the course of the day and so I just go ahead and start at three.
66:11That's when when I know it's grind season. Um, but it's rewarding. I I really feel like every year, every rankings call we have, we get less and
66:20less wrong. And I think, you know, year over year, we've gotten less wrong. So, it's fun to see your hard work pay off.
66:28>> For sure. Uh, in your thousands of drafts, have you ever drafted the exact same team twice? If not, what's the most
66:35players you overlap between teams?
66:37Shady, thoughts on uh this? I you've talked about this in the past with with the way the sidekick works, but uh yeah,
66:44can you elaborate on that possibility?
66:47>> Definitely not. Um I also don't know the most. I'm sure sack has done some sort of jakard.product to know the actual answer
66:57at some point in his historical drafts of things, but yeah, certainly not in the same contest and that's all that matters. Um, and and even then it
67:06probably might have been okay since there's pods, but uh, no, sort of it's I'd be very very surprised if anyone had
67:13that happen.
67:14>> I'd be surprised if it's more than seven or eight players overlapping on on any two teams. I haven't checked for this
67:20year, but I I could.
67:23>> Yeah.
67:25Uh the advancement thing uh Michael says likely being gleaned from the early running back starts being optimal I guess for advancement but Herszig won
67:36with a hyper fragile build back in BBM1 so it's not like that's not a high upside build either.
67:44Um love the chat interaction.
67:47Probably my favorite show of all follows uh each week. Thanks guys. This has been fun. Yeah, we've got uh I get, you know,
67:53we're we're uh we're winding down here.
67:57I guess I need to talk to Sam if we're doing another That's Fair next week. We might be on our last That's Fair. Uh
68:05we're on our second to last Top Guy Tuesday because that won't be part of the inseason uh schedule. Um but yeah,
68:14we've got tons of inseason content at Legup. walk through and uh planning on running back the angles and upside pod.
68:22Just was uh reaching out to Reebs making sure that's on and what time we're going to we're going to figure out. Yeah,
68:28Reeves and I are definitely running that back and uh we just need to figure out when we're recording on Fridays. But
68:34that'll be the big tent poll in season stream in couple weeks now. So I guess a week from Friday. Do I need to I got to
68:44write the wrong write the walkth through guys.
68:47>> [laughter] >> I am looking forward to the walkthrough.
68:51That that definitely is a cornerstone piece of the content that I consume to get ready for DFS every week.
68:57Uh question on leverage plays and a lot of wide receiver fours uh that don't normally see go. I think uh one thing
69:07I'd say like on Chris Bell, Chris Bell, it's nice because he probably wasn't drafted at like 100%. But we think Chris
69:15Bell's a good pick, you know, that's not uh it's not like about the tournament.
69:21Uh like if you if you open the puppy 4, you know, right? And they're it's closed now, but if you whatever the new contest
69:27today, the mini schnowzer, if you you pop a mini schnowzer open, you're going to find Chris Bell probably getting recommended there. That's a brand new
69:36tournament. So, um, you know, that that's it's not that having those types of guys is nice, but there's also some guys where we're just higher on than we
69:46we were before.
69:48>> It's just the sampling bias thing there.
69:50With more certainty in who the final players are on a team, you'll see more rare players show up because there's more rare players that are good.
69:58>> Wait, say that again.
70:00>> Uh, there are more good options late because there's they've condensed into more certainty of the like the weird fourth We now know so and so isn't cut.
70:09You know, we know there's more receivers pop up and occasional Sims that they're good just because they're more likely >> to there's just more of them that can be
70:16good sort of like darts now that we have more more information on them not being a zero because they were not cut from
70:22the 53.
70:24>> As a prospect, why is Chris Bell not just leg? Um I don't think he's very legcoded and I'm also not a big Chris Bell guy.
70:34He did not rate particularly well for me. Uh he I think is kind of like a he's like he's sort of a yak dude but
70:44you get the ball kind of kind of early, you know, like you hit him on an eight yard pass and he he starts running but
70:50he's not like super athletic. So I'm a little bit to be honest I'm kind of skeptical of Chris Bell in terms of what
70:55his ultimate ceiling is going to be and he's coming off a torn ACL. So, like we weren't drafting Chris Bell at all for a
71:03long time, but he's clearly way healthier than expected. Even though the Dolphins were the Dolphins were like, "Yeah, we thought we might get him back
71:10like mid-season. He he's crushed it. Now he's going to probably play a good chunk week one." So, I think he surprised
71:17everybody that way. Um, but then also, they just don't have any receivers.
71:22Like, Caleb Douglas is going to be a starter for them. And I think the cool thing that the Dolphins are doing is
71:26they're just going to play these rookies. like they're not they're not around with, you know, Tutu Atwell and stuff. Um they're, you know,
71:33they traded Tutu Atwell for Jarqu Hunter and then cut Jarqu Hunter.
71:37So, they're going to play the rookies.
71:39Uh and Chris Bell, I think, could play a bunch this year and he could be like one of the easiest, you know, fifth round fades of 2027.
71:51But be pretty cool if he was drafted in the fifth round next year and you're drafting him in the 15th this year, you
71:57know. So that's kind of that's kind of where I'm at. Like of course he could bust. Um but you know, he could be one
72:04of these dudes who bust after being reasonably productive. Who was the other Dolphins guy? The UDFA they had? I always forget his name. Then Tours ACL.
72:13>> Oh, um Oh gosh, I know who you're talking about.
72:19>> I always forget who it is. Yeah.
72:22>> Uh, yeah, I know they traded two. That was my point. Uh, Steph chiming in.
72:30Um, Preston Williams.
72:32>> Preston Williams. Yep. Yep.
72:33>> Yes, >> I was just looking it up.
72:37Uh, >> he was fun.
72:39>> Bell was a second round grade before his ACL. Dude has upside. I agree with you on that. I think I I again I'm not like
72:47so if I put him in with second round capital he comes out in the same tier that Pat Bryant did last year and I
72:52think he's like he's kind of actually sort of similar to Pat Bryant like the way Pat Bryant looks like he might be
72:56like big slot guy. I think that's a similar type of dude to Chris Bell. But if Pat Bryant were like imagine they had
73:02traded Tuttowwell for Pat Bryant I would be into Pat Bryant on the Dolphins you know. So I I think that's Imagine if Pat Bryant was on the
73:11Dolphins. That's kind of my my upside or not even upside. I'm just kind of like that's what I'm imagining when I think
73:18of Chris Bell. I don't think he's this super high upside prospect. I probably lower on him. I know I'm lower on than
73:24some are. I I didn't think I thought like if he went in the first round had he not been hurt, that would have been
73:29strange, but you know, whatever. Second round's fine. Um and he he seems a lot healthier than I thought.
73:3948% Bell, highest drafted player. Damn, dude. I would feel good about that at this point for sure.
73:46Uh, is this a possible thing we can any in the history of Sidekick Sims? What player has been the best prediction? Do
73:54you do we have this? Who have we crushed it the hardest on?
73:58>> I mean, Harold Fannon was pretty cool.
73:59That's pretty good.
74:00>> We did have like for people who are not as familiar with the lore >> like Pat was wanting if if Pat did not
74:09>> Oh, you guys don't understand how much lower we were on Harold Fannon last year then we than I would have been. So,
74:15>> we if Pat's inputs were the only thing in the Sidekick Sims last year, if you were top clicking, you would have 95%
74:22Harold Fannon cuz you would have drafted him off just from day one. like Pat was into him from day one. We we reigned him
74:30in wrong wrong wrongly now, you know, and then as things went on, we kind of like we would dribble in like Harold
74:39Fannon buffs as a treat for Pat. It's like, all right, Pat, you know, Pat gave us this one. We can raise Harold Fannon
74:46as a treat.
74:46>> I I literally Yeah. I would I would accumulate political capital and then spend it on Harold Fannon's range.
74:52That's [laughter] my Yeah. [snorts] >> Yeah. Yeah. And I I think I ended up with like over 40% Harold Fannon and
75:00like, you know, multiple used vehicles worth of him. And that was that was pretty cool to just immediately like watch him playing football. You're like,
75:11"Oh yeah, we should have had 80 80% of this guy. This is just like the generational wealth opportunity." So that was a pretty good one.
75:19>> That was a pretty good one.
75:20>> I feel like that makes it not a great prediction by us, right? I mean, we always going to have some players our
75:2690s.
75:26>> I tried. I straight up I tried, dude. I was calibrated. These guys, >> that's not the psychic sim. That's That's the Pat brain.
75:33>> You know what else?
75:35Keep that in mind. The next time you overrule me.
75:37>> Uh Wandale Robinson last year. I think Wandale was a really really good one where we pretty well nailed that. Um had
75:46a ton of Wale which really helped the advance rates. You know, the other one where like I'm just proud of us for
75:52sticking to good process is like we hated QJ last year. Didn't want to touch him with a 10- foot pole. Then he fell
75:58to the 18th round because he got a concussion in preseason and we absolutely slammed Q. I dude I want to say I had like 0% QJ on August 1st or
76:08like pretty clo you know rounds to zero and I finished with like got to be close to 20%.
76:14And I drafted like 2500 teams last year. That's an absurd amount of QJ to draft in the last month of the year.
76:22>> He was a big eliminator guy for us.
76:24>> He was huge. Yeah.
76:26>> Yeah. Because we we had an awesome eliminator advance rate for, you know, the first three or four weeks and he was
76:31just like carrying some teams, you know, you're just like Yeah, because you got them completely for free um with that overreaction.
76:39>> That's This is a fun idea. Probably we probably never do it, but it >> No, we're never doing that. I'm not
76:45we're not doing >> you you would you honestly would not want that because all >> if we take all the thousands of inputs
76:50and start multiplying by different people like no thank you.
76:54>> Yeah. It's like you know Captain Planet with all of the powers combined is pretty good but all the powers independently like you really want to
77:01draft off the power of heart like I don't think you >> I've also been wrong. you know, the the Fannon one was uh was was pretty nice,
77:09but there are times where I would be, you know, off on some crazy thing. Like you guys reigning me in is normally
77:16good. It's it's funny that like the one that maybe you reign me in the most on, I was like the most
77:23right to be [laughter] saying like, "No, don't re me in." But yeah, normally it's quite good that you're reigning me in. You guys are
77:33moving me toward reality and not away from it.
77:38>> Drafting off the power of heart is just Davis Madak. I think that's complimentary partheses complimentary.
77:44>> Uh speaking of Davis Maddox, >> in uh in about 30 minutes I'll be on with uh the ADP chasing guys.
77:51>> Uh right. Right. Shady.
77:54>> That's uh basically the way [laughter] that we round time in 2026. I hear >> Shady got mad at me for rounding 23
78:02minutes to 30 minutes [laughter] and then the quarter was right. That's >> round telling us we're going to be a little bit late. It's fine.
78:10>> 16 minutes and up. You can round to 30.
78:13>> Rounded the nearest quarter hour. Okay, I see.
78:16>> All right, good to know.
78:18>> Um, yeah. Anyway, the uh the ADP chasing we're we're doing our final uh I believe yeah our final like preseason ADP
78:29chasing tonight because next Tuesday we're we're drafting a team I believe.
78:34So I think that's right. That's not right. Then there's an extra ADP chasing. But I think this is the last one. So uh check that out in 7 minutes
78:42over on the ship chasing channel. Uh any anything else you guys uh want to shout out before we get out of here? I'm
78:50going to try to grab something to eat in the next five minutes.
78:53>> I gota get food. Wish me luck. Tonight's the MLB main event. Kind of win a million dollars. So that's what I that's
78:59what I want to happen tonight. Oh yeah.
79:01>> I hear I hear you banked something last night. Is this true?
79:04>> Backtoback nights of high stake wins.
79:06Yeah. So let's make it three in a row.
79:08>> Okay.
79:09>> Not gonna happen. And I always win on the I have a hot streak, but it never includes the night that actually matters
79:12in the week when they have these big contests. So, but we'll do our best.
79:20>> Um, all right. Well, thanks so much for watching. I'll be back on Thursday with Sam Sherman. Uh, and we'll be doing our
79:28That's Fair Pod. I believe the stream that I'm thinking of is we're going to be doing an ADP chasing draft, me Davis
79:35and and uh and Sam next Tuesday. So, that'll be a fun one. We got our our draft with Leone and Gretch next week as
79:43well. Um, and yeah, we're uh we're we're out of the nine-hole for uh for the draft with Sam, so that that'll be fun.
79:54I'm out of the 12 hole tomorrow uh in the Spite Main. Check that out.
80:00Shipchasing 2 PM tomorrow. Me, Davis, Pete, Jacob are all drafting in the same draft. We're all I think it's like we're
80:08out of the five, the eight, the 10, and the 12. I'm out of the 12. And uh the goal is to get the players that the
80:17other idiots wouldn't let us have we got voted off of. Kind of the Harold Fannon thing. You know, you just go get the guy
80:24that everyone else told you you were too high on. So, I'm going to I'm going to have some brand players on on this main
80:30event and then try to beat the other three guys and uh and eight other people and take down the main event league.
80:36Check that out tomorrow 2 pm Eastern.
80:38Excited for that one. And uh check everything we got going on at Legendary Upside, including the Sidekick.
80:43Legendary Upside.com.
80:44Legendaryupsite.comsidekick.
80:46Check it all out. Thanks again for watching. See you later.