0:00To be the best fantasy football analyst,
0:01you have to beat the best fantasy
0:03football players, which is what I did. I
0:04participated in the Hard Way league over
0:06on the FFPC inside of the Big Gorilla
0:09Tourney. $1 million to first place. I
0:11participated against former
0:13million-dollar champions Abe Go Bills.
0:16We have Fantasy Mojo in this league.
0:18Many, many fantasy football champions,
0:19Theo Gremminger from Fantasy Points. I
0:21drafted out of the four slot in this
0:23$350 fantasy football draft. This was my
0:26very first redraft fantasy football
0:28league of the year. Keep in mind, one
0:30little wrinkle that is different about
0:31the FFPC is it is tight end premium. So,
0:34Brock Bowers, Cole Kmet, Loveland, and
0:35Trey McBride, these guys get 1.5 points
0:38per receptions. Other than that, it is a
0:40normal PPR league. You start two running
0:43backs, two wide receivers, and two flex
0:44positions. Drawing the four spot, I knew
0:47that I was going to start with a
0:48receiver, which does make things a
0:50little bit more difficult, right?
0:52Because then you're looking at a clear
0:53second-tier running backs. It was a
0:55no-brainer to me to take Puka Nacua at
0:57the four slot. I actually had to think
0:59quite hard when I came up in the second
1:01round. Cole Kmet, Loveland was a clear
1:04target of mine heading into this. I
1:06think that Cole Kmet, Loveland can have
1:07100 catches this season. I think it's
1:09possible that Cole Kmet, Loveland
1:11outscores Trey McBride. Not because
1:13Loveland is better, although I I mean, I
1:14think Loveland might be better. But,
1:16more that when it comes to the money
1:18weeks in fantasy football, weeks 15, 16,
1:21and 17, when we are trying to beat our
1:22friends or we're trying to win a million
1:24dollars, Trey McBride might have Carson
1:26Beck as his quarterback. He might have
1:28Gardner Minshew as his quarterback. That
1:30I don't love.
1:32I obviously would have been happy, I
1:33think, to take Saquon Barkley. I would
1:35have been happy to take Chase Brown at
1:37the 2.9. I also would have been happy to
1:39take Kenneth Walker, who went way
1:40earlier. Not nearly as happy to take Cam
1:43Akers, not nearly as happy to take
1:45Etienne. A little bit of good luck here
1:47that I ended up in a position to not
1:49select Josh Jacobs. So, I did take Cole
1:51Kmet, Loveland. I expect him to
1:53basically be close to like a 13-14
1:56points per game player. I think that he
1:58could very easily lead the Chicago Bears
2:00in targets. The next decision was much
2:03tougher. When I came up to pick at the
2:063.4, so the 28th overall pick in this
2:08draft, who I wanted to take was Breece
2:10Hall or Derrick Henry. That was who I
2:12had in my queue. I saw Theo Greninger
2:15select Breece right ahead. That was That
2:17was That was a bummer. I I did really
2:19want Breece on this team. I was not
2:21trying to go into this draft doing a
2:23zero running back team. I don't think
2:24that zero running back is a particularly
2:26great strategy this year. I think there
2:29are a lot of flaws in it. One of the big
2:30problems is that the profiles we like
2:33for zero running back drafters, they're
2:34just way more expensive. You know, Bijan
2:35Robinson, Jaylen Warren, RJ Harvey. In
2:38years past, these guys would have been
2:39much less expensive, but they're, you
2:42know, they're priced all the way up this
2:43year.
2:44What I ended up doing, and this is the
2:46honest-to-goodness truth, I was I I
2:48flipped a coin between Rashee Rice and
2:50Malik Nabers. I think they're really,
2:52really good picks in leagues where you
2:55feel good about your ability to
2:56outmaneuver other people on the waiver
2:58wire. No disrespect to my very, very
3:00good league mates in this league, but
3:02I'm the waiver wire king. I I feel very
3:04good about me being able to scrimp and
3:06save, find spot starts at quarterback,
3:08at tight end, at kicker, at defense, and
3:10I want to embrace the volatility in a
3:13lot of formats for Rashee Rice and Malik
3:15Nabers. Even if Nabers misses a month of
3:17the season because he has to go on the
3:19PUP list, I would think he is pretty
3:20strong. My current belief on Rashee Rice
3:23is that he will not serve a suspension.
3:25I I just I just as of the incidents
3:27right now, I do not think he will be
3:29suspended. Obviously, the the variance
3:32that you have to embrace with Rashee
3:34though is he might do something else
3:35stupid, which is, you know, maybe why
3:37some people are not drafting in May. So,
3:39my team through three rounds, Puka,
3:41Loveland, Rice. I then at the 45th
3:44overall pick added Bucky Irving. I again
3:46got sniped on this one by Noah. Kim
3:49Skataboe is who I wanted. Kim Skataboe
3:51was in the queue. That was pretty
3:52brutal. I'm not even a a Bucky guy
3:55really, and his average draft position
3:56is going to be lower than this because
3:58of the report when Todd Bowles said
4:00he'll be back quote in the summer or the
4:02fall. Not exactly what you want from
4:04your running back one.
4:06But I think that if you run hot with
4:08Bucky Irving where Kenneth Gainwell is
4:10not playing every third down, Sean
4:12Tucker is not getting all the rushes
4:13inside the five, which is something that
4:15I don't think the Buccaneers know. I
4:16don't think Bucky Irving knows, and we
4:18certainly do not know how they plan on
4:20disseminating those touches. We do know
4:22that Bucky has one very great season of
4:24scoring actual fantasy points and two
4:26great years of scoring fantasy points
4:28above expectation. You know, he is going
4:30to be a player who is more efficient
4:32than league average on the touches that
4:34he does get than Trevion Henderson back
4:37around at 52. Again, I probably would
4:39have been fine with David Montgomery. I
4:41would have been fine with Byishal Tuten.
4:42He was in my queue. Funnily enough, uh
4:45Jadarian Price was also in my queue who
4:47went in one pick before me in the sixth
4:49round before I took Jordan Tyson. Not
4:51much to say about Trevion Henderson. I
4:53just think he's one of the few guys
4:55who's actually underpriced relative to
4:56his port his profile. Rhamondre
4:58Stevenson will probably get the first
5:00carry of the season for the Patriots,
5:02but Trevion Henderson is a better
5:04fantasy asset because again, he is going
5:06to score fantasy points over
5:07expectation. He's going to be involved
5:09in the passing game. He's going to be
5:10more explosive. He's going to average
5:12more yards per carry. And over the
5:14course of the season, these are bets
5:16that I like to make wherein I'm betting
5:18that the more efficient, more explosive
5:20player ends up being the better fantasy
5:23football asset.
5:24Heading into the sixth round, I knew
5:26that I needed some running back points.
5:28I did not want to double up on Rhamondre
5:30and Henderson together. I think in best
5:31ball you can do that a little bit. I
5:33don't love doing that in redraft
5:35formats. I really wanted Jadarian Price.
5:37I thought Price would have been a great
5:39fit for this team cuz I could have
5:41potentially even started Price over
5:43Bucky Irving or Henderson if things go
5:45against them in the first week of the
5:46season because Charbonnet is not going
5:48to be back. So, I was I was bummed out
5:50that he went at pick 68. At pick 69, I
5:52took Jordan Addison as my third wide
5:54receiver. Again, I think I'm going to
5:56feel comfortable starting Jordan Addison
5:59in the first week of the season. I don't
6:00think he's going to be behind Devonte
6:02Booker or Bob Means. I really like
6:04Jordan Addison as a prospect at Arizona
6:06State. The SLAP model, which you can
6:07check out over on flockfantasy.com,
6:10is very very high on Jordan Addison. Had
6:12Jordan Addison as the best wide receiver
6:15class, draft capital agnostic. And even
6:17when inputting draft capital, Jordan
6:19Addison still the number one wide
6:20receiver in my modeling over Carnell
6:23Tate. Basically very close between him
6:27and Jameson Williams. Those were the two
6:28guys I wanted there. I also had RJ
6:30Harvey in my queue, who then went the
6:32pick before Tony Pollard. I mean, Tony
6:36Pollard's basically built for teams like
6:37this. Like I just need someone steady,
6:39someone who I could theoretically start
6:41again if things go against Bucky Irving
6:43or Trevion Henderson. I expect Tony
6:45Pollard to get every opportunity to
6:48start and play for the Tennessee Titans.
6:50We're going to have Tajae Spears on
6:51passing downs. If things go against the
6:53Titans and the Titans stink, Tony
6:55Pollard could get traded. Tony Pollard
6:57could just get benched for Nicholas
6:58Singleton. But to start the year, I know
7:00what I'm going to be getting out of Tony
7:01Pollard.
7:02And then I did a move that I love in
7:05tight end premium formats. This
7:06obviously does not apply as much to your
7:08home leagues. Although I do think home
7:10leagues are going to trend more tight
7:12end heavy than ever this year because so
7:13many teams are going to be playing 12
7:15and 13 personnel to the point that lead
7:18tight ends, I think are going to
7:19outscore more wide receiver twos and
7:22certainly more wide receiver threes than
7:24the market anticipates right now. In a
7:26tight end premium format, I took Travis
7:28Kelce at 93.
7:30This is the perfect format for Travis
7:32Kelce where he might struggle
7:33efficiency-wise. He might struggle to
7:35score. He might struggle to generate YAC
7:37the way he had done at his peak. But
7:39Travis Kelce is is going to struggle for
7:41receptions, right? I mean, we like if
7:43you knew that Travis Kelce was playing
7:4517 games with Patrick Mahomes, which
7:46should be our base expectation, your
7:49thought for his reception should be like
7:5285 receptions, 95 receptions. Like he
7:54could catch 100 passes, particularly if
7:57he replaces some of these short area
7:58Rashee Rice stuff and they have Rashee
8:00Rice running a more complete route tree.
8:02So, I felt very, very good about that
8:04pick and in fact, I will probably in
8:06week one and maybe even all the way
8:08through the rest of the season, I'll
8:09probably be starting Travis Kelce over
8:11Jordan Addison. You know, Addison
8:12obviously has a greater upside and a
8:14wider range of outcomes, but Travis
8:15Kelce has one of the absolute safest
8:17floors in a format that rewards
8:19receptions for tight ends. And this is
8:21not a dynasty league, right? I don't
8:22care that the dude is 38 years old.
8:25The next two picks base For me, these
8:27next two picks took this draft from what
8:30would have felt like a B- minus to
8:32probably like honest-to-goodness, I I
8:34think I killed this draft. Like in terms
8:37of the plan I had coming in to the team
8:40I had leaving it, I I think I absolutely
8:42smoked what I wanted to do because I was
8:44able to get JK Dobbins at pick 100.
8:46Again, week one starting running back
8:48for the Denver Broncos. And I have
8:49enough of these guys because then I also
8:51took Jacquory Croskey-Merritt. So,
8:53between Pollard, Dobbins, and Jacquory
8:56Croskey-Merritt, I think what I did is I
8:58kind of drafted my running backs in
9:00reverse. And that actually makes sense
9:02if you think about it. Back in the day,
9:04when I started playing fantasy football,
9:05guys like Bucky Irving and Trayveon
9:07Henderson, you would have gotten those
9:08guys after pick 100. I mean, Trayveon
9:10Henderson, when I started doing fantasy
9:12football analysis, would have
9:13legitimately been like a 12th round pick
9:15because of Rhamondre Stevenson. Now,
9:17what's happened is drafters have gotten
9:19smarter, they've gotten more
9:20forward-thinking, and what we've
9:21realized is that the guys who have the
9:24ability to generate the fantasy points
9:25over expectation, like Bucky Irving,
9:27like Trayveon Henderson, need to be
9:29priced up because they are potential
9:31league winners. Pollard, Dobbins, and
9:33Jacquory Croskey-Merritt are not
9:34potential league winners. Pollard is not
9:36on a good enough offense, and then JK
9:37Dobbins and J Corr Skowronek do not have
9:40the receiving potential because what you
9:41really have to do to have, to quote my
9:44friend Pat Corrain, to get the legendary
9:46upside season, you basically have to
9:48average at least four catches per game.
9:50Dobbins and J Corr Skowronek between the
9:52two of them might not average two
9:54receptions per game, but they will be
9:56the early down running backs on what I
9:58expect to be good offenses. And because
10:00those offenses are good, they'll also
10:02have the ability to generate touchdowns.
10:04So again,
10:05you know, those guys are probably going
10:07to be more in like the nine and a half
10:09to 10 and a half fantasy points per game
10:10range, which is not great, but it's
10:12definitely better than a lot of the
10:13strategies I've taken in these formats
10:15in the past where we have just gone, you
10:18know, all in on the wide receivers,
10:20tried to get six of the top 15 wide
10:21receivers, and then been starting, you
10:23know, absolute we're starting fullbacks
10:25at running back, too, in order to get
10:26the points. I took Patrick Mahomes as
10:28the stack there. Then I actually
10:30backdoored Patrick Mahomes with Kyler
10:32Murray. Generally speaking in these
10:33formats, I think you probably only want
10:35to take one quarterback. There are two
10:37things that happened here. The first,
10:39and I'm going to be honest with this,
10:40it's a little bit of best ball brain for
10:42me. You know, I've been doing thousands
10:43and thousands of best ball drafts, and
10:45in those formats, you absolutely have to
10:47take two quarterbacks, probably three.
10:49The other thing is there's a small,
10:51small chance that Mahomes starts the
10:52year relatively slow in terms of fantasy
10:55points. I don't think that's going to
10:56happen for Kyler at all. If anything,
10:58Kyler's probably going to start the year
11:00very hot in terms of fantasy points
11:02because he will be running more at the
11:04beginning of the year. There's a chance
11:05he gets banged up. There is a chance
11:07that the team kind of finds its groove
11:09with De'Mon Clayborn or Jordan Mason on
11:11the ground, but Patrick Mahomes is going
11:13to be active week one. Uh Mahomes should
11:15not be going after Jackson Dart. He
11:17should not be going after Trevor
11:18Lawrence. Like, Patrick Mahomes, I I I I
11:20mean, he's going to start week one. He's
11:21going to be very good for fantasy. He's
11:23one of the most underpriced guys on the
11:24board.
11:26This is the start of the the range of
11:28the draft where you start taking darts,
11:30and and my first thought is, well, man,
11:32it's going to be great to cut that guy.
11:33So, I added Antonio Williams as my
11:35fourth wide receiver in this draft. Then
11:38I added Kaevon Keyvone Black, another I
11:40mean, I think a very high upside dart. I
11:42would say if Kaevon Black sticks at a
11:44round 14 price, there's a chance he ends
11:47up being on like 80% of my fantasy
11:49football teams this year because by week
11:51one it's could be super super clear that
11:54he is just a handcuff to Christian
11:55McCaffrey. It's a little bit of a roster
11:57clogging situation because he's not
11:59going to have any stand alone value, but
12:01he is going to have immense handcuff
12:02value if he ends up clearly winning that
12:04job over Jordan James. Next up, same
12:07team, De'Shawn Shivers, the 33rd overall
12:10pick in the NFL draft. Lot of different
12:12ways this stuff can play out, you know,
12:14it can be a Xavier Legette situation or
12:16it could be a Laviska Shenault situation
12:18where a guy gets way over drafted
12:20relative to the scouting consensus
12:22coming. I guess Laviska was not that
12:24over drafted relative to his scouting
12:26consensus, but Laviska was a relatively
12:28cheap player in fantasy football his
12:30rookie year. Then I added in Jerry
12:32Jeudy. This one is just sort of a what
12:34if we're wrong about the Cleveland
12:36Browns? And also Jeudy again is going to
12:38be like about 85% of the routes if I
12:40have to if I'm pressed in the starting
12:41Jerry Jeudy. I mean, he was 29th in the
12:44NFL in targets last year. He's a
12:45terrible player. Deshaun Watson is a
12:46terrible quarterback. It's not going to
12:48be a good team, but the volume should be
12:50there. I had to grab a kicker in this
12:52one. Had to grab a defense in this one.
12:54So, I grabbed Harrison Mevis, uh, who is
12:56the even thicker kicker. And then the
12:58Minnesota Vikings defense was my next
13:01selection there. Ended with two darts
13:03for the skill position, Seth Magallan,
13:06who has every chance to win the running
13:07back two job behind Jonathan Taylor. And
13:10then Ted Hearst, who I actually
13:12anticipate is going to be much more
13:13expensive than this. And you might
13:15notice there's a lot of young wide
13:16receivers on this team. I took Antonio
13:18Williams, De'Shawn Shivers, and Ted
13:20Hearst. So, like all guys who might not
13:22play and who I might cut. Uh, and that
13:24is actually what starting with Puka and
13:27Rashee allowed me to do because those
13:28guys are going to be my wide receivers
13:30every single week. There's never going
13:31to be a start sit situation. Then Jordan
13:34Tyson, if he truly blows up, will have a
13:36chance to be my flex starter compared to
13:38what happens with the running backs. But
13:40also, doing the double tight end thing
13:42there with Travis Kelce means that my
13:45flex options on in a given week just due
13:48to the way the scoring system works, I
13:49actually think taking the second tight
13:51end in these high-stakes formats with
13:54the tight end premium is quite nice. But
13:56here's a look at the full draft board.
13:59You guys go ahead and let me know.
14:00Comment down below if any of these teams
14:02you thought were better than mine. I
14:03really liked what Go Bills did here with
14:05Lamb, Jefferson, Tyler Lockett, Javonte
14:08Williams, De'Andre Swift, Adoree'
14:09Jackson, Kittle. They did the same thing
14:11with the double tight end strategy. My
14:13guy Abe, the former champion over on the
14:15FFPC, $2 million winners drafting
14:17back-to-back also did the same thing.
14:19Love his start with Gentry and A. J.
14:21Green. But there's a look at the draft
14:23board. I'll actually put a link to that
14:25down below if you guys want to take a
14:27look at it. But I always love these
14:29spots, you know, a real iron sharpens
14:31iron situation drafting against some of
14:33the best drafters in the world over on
14:36The Hard Way.
14:37Make sure you were subscribed to the
14:39Maddock Fantasy Football channel for
14:41more fantasy football videos. Head on
14:42over to flockfantasy.com. You can sign
14:44up over there using code Davis. Like the
14:47video and I will see you guys back
14:49tomorrow.
