Mattek Fantasy Football

The screen game usage previously allocated to Kadarius Toney over the last few years is being transferred to Kenneth Walker.

LeSean McCoy is used as a stylistic comparison for Kenneth Walker, noting their similar playstyles and the historical success of running backs in Andy Reid's system, referencing McCoy's past status as a top-three fantasy draft pick.

The source suggests that the Chiefs' offense will outperform current market projections as Patrick Mahomes gets healthier, creating a more favorable environment for his running backs.

Josh Jacobs is used as a stylistic comparison for Ashton Jeanty, with the source questioning if Jeanty's ceiling is essentially 'Josh Jacobs plus'.

Saquon Barkley is used as a benchmark for elite running back explosiveness, a trait the source feels Ashton Jeanty lacks in comparison. Jeanty is considered a top-tier prospect alongside Barkley, Bijan Robinson, and Christian McCaffrey, with the source noting his high-level receiving ability despite limited passing volume in his college offense.

Devon Achane is viewed as a superstar talent with high-value touch potential. Despite environmental uncertainty, his production remains elite, and he is projected to catch approximately 80 passes. The Dolphins' offensive line is considered a major strength, and the market may be over-discounting him due to durability concerns.

Jameson Williams showed serious improvement in his craft last season and has been underutilized as a yards-after-catch threat, making him a key factor in the Lions' target distribution.

Kenneth Walker is a high-upside target projected for an 1800 scrimmage yard, 12-touchdown season. He is moving to a superior Chiefs offensive line and is expected to inherit the screen game role previously occupied by Kadarius Toney. Walker is highly effective in space, with efficiency comparable to Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, though minor groin injury history remains a slight concern.

CeeDee Lamb is an elite fantasy asset who has finished as the overall WR1 and remains in his prime. While acknowledging a history of nagging injuries, the source maintains Lamb is in a perfect situation with a great quarterback and play-caller. Selected at the 1.8 spot in the mock draft, his value could rise further if the Cowboys move on from other receivers, keeping him in the elite tier alongside Malik Nabers.

The source notes that Michael Mayer's presence is a 'huge secret thing' for Brock Bowers, as it allows Bowers to avoid playing with his hand in the dirt, effectively freeing him up for more dynamic usage.

Sam LaPorta is highlighted as a significant source of target competition for Amon-Ra St. Brown, with the expectation that he will be re-signed by the Lions as an impending free agent.

The source has moved Amon-Ra St. Brown out of their first-round rankings, citing concerns about the Lions' defense forcing fewer shootouts and increased target competition from a healthy Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs, who is expected to become the primary engine of the offense.

The source identifies Tory Horton as a long-term value comparison for Jackson Smith-Njigba, noting that Horton is not dependent on high target volume.

The source ranks Brock Bowers in the first round, citing a career average of 15.7 fantasy points per game when healthy. With a thin wide receiver room, he could command a 27-28% target share, potentially challenging tight end reception records. The source notes Michael Mayer's presence is a 'huge secret thing' that allows Bowers to avoid playing with his hand in the dirt, freeing him for more dynamic usage.

The source identifies Anthony Richardson as an unrestricted free agent who will be signed by a team, despite the current lack of trade reports.

The source expresses significant concern regarding Matthew Stafford's long-term viability, citing a chronic back injury that prevents him from practicing on consecutive days. The source predicts this may be his final year playing above league-average yards per attempt.

Kyler Murray is expected to secure a contract extension and provide the competent quarterback play necessary to elevate Justin Jefferson's fantasy ceiling.

The source is highly bullish on Puka Nacua, projecting he could reach 400 fantasy points and potentially become the first player drafted next year if Matthew Stafford returns. He is viewed as more insulated than Justin Jefferson due to his dominance in the underneath game and Sean McVay's ability to manufacture touches.

The source ranks Ja'Marr Chase as the 1.02 overall player and firmly in the top three or four fantasy wide receivers. His outlook is bolstered by improved offensive line play, better health, and Joe Burrow's stability, with the source noting he is in a superior situation compared to Justin Jefferson.

Bijan Robinson is a top-tier asset, though the source expresses nervousness regarding his outlook due to the Falcons' unsettled quarterback situation for the current and upcoming seasons. He is highlighted for his elite receiving ability and high reception floor, which the source argues is necessary for a running back to justify a first-round fantasy pick. He is used as a benchmark for elite running back efficiency alongside Jahmyr Gibbs.

Justin Jefferson is ranked as the 1.02 overall player. Despite poor quarterback play last season, he remains second all-time in career yards per game and has the potential to reach 350-375 points with 115+ receptions if he receives competent quarterback play. The source ranks him higher than CeeDee Lamb, noting that while Lamb is in a perfect situation, Jefferson possesses a higher ceiling because he is a better wide receiver on tape. He is currently being penalized in rankings for his quarterback situation, though Kyler Murray is expected to provide the stability needed to elevate his fantasy ceiling.

Jared Goff is identified as one of the top five skilled players on the Lions, contributing to the team's front-loaded contract structure.

Isiah Pacheco remains the primary running back for the Lions with no significant competition behind him on the depth chart.

Jahmyr Gibbs is projected for a legendary upside season and is a strong candidate to repeat as the overall RB1. The source expects him to become the primary engine of the Lions' offense, which shifts the team's play-calling focus and negatively impacts the target share outlook for Amon-Ra St. Brown. He is regarded as one of the best players in the league and a standard for modern, elusive running backs who excel at avoiding contact.

Malik Nabers is currently undervalued in drafts and not priced as a first-round pick despite elite potential. The source is a full believer, comparing him stylistically to Ja'Marr Chase and projecting 30%+ target shares due to a lack of established competition in the Giants' offense. He is considered a benchmark for elite wide receiver value, placing him in the same high-tier conversation as CeeDee Lamb.

Josh Ds notes Brooks was one of his favorite sleeper picks initially but has since been 'steamed up' and is no longer in sleeper range, making him less of a value play at current draft cost.

Josh Jacobs has a groin injury reported during training camp and is currently working with Iowa trainers to recover. Combined with prior legal issues, Jacobs' availability and workload are now in question, significantly impacting the Packers backfield depth chart and creating opportunity for Marshon Lloyd.

Saquon Barkley is projected to be a full workhorse running back for the Eagles, but Josh Ds notes he is older with injury concerns that create backup upside for Tank Bsby. The Eagles' elite offensive line (healthier than last year) supports Barkley's workhorse role, though Ds handicaps a 5–15% likelihood of Barkley missing time. Aging starter with injury concerns heading into the season; Josh Ds notes Barkley is older and dealing with injury issues, which creates opportunity for backup Tank Bixby if Barkley's workload is managed or he goes down.

Josh Ds projects Jaylen Coker as a true 1B receiver down the stretch at picks 110–130 on Underdog, significantly underpriced relative to Ted Roy McMillan's fourth-round cost. Coker is a potential 85–90% route share player on an ascending Panthers offense. His late-season performance demonstrates upside: games of 11.2, 17.4, 14, and 16.7 PPR, plus a massive playoff game vs. Rams. A training camp injury limited his early-year ramp, but with Chris Brazelle sidelined by LCL injury and Xavier Legette unlikely to matter, Coker should command concentrated target share. Even modest offensive improvement (Panthers ranked 27th in offensive PPG last year) leaves meat on the bone unpriced in year three. Ds agrees with the market's love for Coker and is willing to make the bet on him.

Despite not liking Boston as a prospect (two yards per route run, four-year college player), Josh Ds is willing to target him around pick 150 due to significant training camp buzz in Browns camp. Training camp reports show Boston getting open at will and catching touchdowns, creating a clearer path to fantasy starter status than other late-round receivers. Ds identifies Boston as one of the two Browns receivers likely to work out in a huge way.

Stefon Diggs could be the number two receiver in the Commanders offense but is not a full-time type of player. Limited snap share and role depth suggest reduced fantasy upside compared to typical WR2 expectations.

Aaron Jones, the Vikings' other running back option, hasn't been able to stay healthy and is getting up there in his career. This durability concern makes him a less reliable bet compared to Jordan Mason for the Vikings backfield going forward.

Jordan Mason, now with the Minnesota Vikings at age 27, has never posted double-digit fantasy points in a full season despite a strong 2024 run with San Francisco before injury. His efficiency metrics (yards per carry) were elite with the 49ers. The main concern is the Vikings' low red-zone rushing volume (9 inside-the-10 carries, 6 inside-the-5 in 2024), which is typical of the KOC offense. However, Josh Ds projects Mason as a sustained 15+ carry-per-game back capable of scoring 10–12 touchdowns, comparing him to Javonte Williams' archetype. Mason has been a positive rushing yards over expectation guy even in poor Vikings offenses; with improved offensive line and potential return to 2022–23 Vikings run-heavy scheme (Dalvin Cook had a legendary season in that configuration), Mason could pay off significantly. Positive camp reports from Vikings support the projection. Ds is willing to make a bet on Mason being a sustained 15+ carry-per-game type of guy.

Ranked 50th; now must contend with Stefan Diggs heading into his age 33 season, but speaker still projects McLaurin to be the lead wide receiver for the Commanders.

Ranked 49th in the E tier; described as self-explanatory with established role expectations.

Ranked 51st; had the worst fantasy football season of his career last year and got his coach fired; new coach and offensive coordinator in place; speaker is buying on Lamar Jackson.

Had a semi-breakout last year with highly volatile performance; ended the year with absurd games (16, 23, 19, 26, 17, 26 fantasy points) interspersed with a 5.7 and two zeros on full routes; can be very frustrating to own in fantasy football.

Ranked in the E tier as a starter for the Bears.

Ranked in the E tier as a starter with Houston; self-explanatory tier placement with established role.

Loveland was more productive than Luther Burden when both became full-time players; positioned as a breakout bet in the Bears offense.