The Best Wide Receiver Pick In Fantasy Football
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13 min
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Jul 24, 2026
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Fri, July 24, 2026
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0:00Luther Burton just had the most
0:01efficient rookie season of anyone in the
0:03NFL since Justin Jefferson. He was a
0:05second round pick last year, waited
0:07until later in the year to produce, and
0:08is now going in the fourth round of
0:10fantasy football drafts. By the end of
0:12this video, you are going to be
0:13absolutely convinced that you have to
0:15have Luther Burden on your fantasy
0:16football team or your money back from
0:18this.
0:18>> Yeah, I'm buying Luther Burton stock
0:20right now.
0:21>> Let's begin with that rookie season. 2.7
0:23yards per route run, which is tied for
0:25the best ever rookie mark in the next
0:27gen stats era. The only names that are
0:29close to him, AJ Brown and Justin
0:31Jefferson. He was also third in the
0:33entire NFL in 2025 behind only Puka and
0:36JSN. Now, obviously, there's a little
0:38bit of difference there. Some people are
0:40counting routes where he was effectively
0:43a blocker. So, you're going to get
0:44different numbers if you're using
0:45fantasy points data or NFL.com or
0:47NextGen stats. But the point is, he was
0:49absolutely elite in terms of yards per
0:51route run. He generated 4.6 yards of
0:54average separation on his catches. His
0:5626.1 targets per route run was the
0:58highest on the Chicago Bears. He also
1:01generated 7.4 yards after catch per
1:03reception which was fourth amongst all
1:05wide receivers with 25 or more catches.
1:08Also led the Chicago Bears in catch
1:10rate. Now let's address the elephant in
1:12the room. Roma Dun was injured last
1:14year. Colston Laughlin also saw his
1:16playing time scale up over the course of
1:18the season as he won his job from Cole
1:20KT. Burden was playing behind DJ Moore
1:23and for part of the season he was also
1:24playing behind Olidi Zakia. So a lot of
1:27these numbers are based on a quote
1:29unquote smaller sample though he was
1:31basically a starting player in the back
1:33half of the season for the Chicago
1:34Bears. DJ Moore is now gone. He is a
1:37member of the Buffalo Bills. We also
1:38have Olidi Zakias out of the team. He is
1:42playing for the Atlanta Falcons. Guys
1:43behind Luther Burton are Jade Walker,
1:46Xavian Thomas, and a bunch of other guys
1:48you've never heard of, including Khalif
1:50Raymond. A popular opposition to Luther
1:52Burton is this guy is Cadarius Tony.
1:55This guy is a gadget player. We've
1:56fallen for these gadget players before.
1:58These guys who get a ton of screens,
1:59they get design touches. So, of course,
2:01Luther Burton is going to have a high
2:03targets per route run. Of course, Luther
2:05Burton is going to have a high yards
2:07after catch per reception because he's
2:09basically Dexter McCcluster. So, I went
2:11through and looked at some analysis that
2:12my friend Dwayne McFarland did. He had a
2:152.35 yards per route run. If you remove
2:18all screens, his average depth of target
2:20when you remove those screens, basically
2:22at that elite wide receiver level, 11.8
2:25for his A dot and a 21% targets per
2:28route run if you remove screens. Now,
2:30also screens are very important for
2:32fantasy football. I think that we should
2:34not overlook this. being the design
2:36screen guy in a Ben Johnson offense that
2:39is inherently very valuable. And if you
2:41look at the pass catchers that they have
2:42right now, Roma Dunay, Coulson Loveland,
2:45and Luther Burton, who is most likely to
2:47get those design touches this upcoming
2:49season in 2026, it is going to be Luther
2:52Burton. So, not only has he proven in my
2:54mind that he can win down the field, but
2:56he's also proven that he can be the guy
2:58that Ben Johnson says, you know what, I
3:00want to run this play to get these nine
3:02guaranteed yards right now. Well, Luther
3:04Burton is going to be able to get you
3:05those nine guaranteed yards. He also
3:07played 51% of his snaps out wide. He can
3:10play the X, the Y, or the slot flanker
3:12in my opinion. And I also think that is
3:14going to be reflected in the opinion of
3:16Ben Johnson. He had above average
3:18success rates versus man and zone with
3:20our friend Matt Harmon's charting over
3:22on reception perception. And if you look
3:24back at his collegiate profile, which I
3:26do think is very important for the
3:28second and even sometimes these
3:29third-year players when we have them in
3:31a limited sample, I do like to look back
3:33at what they did in college. He was the
3:35first ever wide receiver in PFF charting
3:38history to have 30 plus miss tackles
3:40force on 80 or fewer targets in a
3:42season. My friend Pat Karen over at
3:45Legendary Upside has actually done some
3:46great work on this and found the
3:48predictive ability for collegiate wide
3:50receivers in terms of miss tackles
3:52forced to fantasy points in year 1, year
3:54two, and year three, which guess what
3:56makes total sense because if you are
3:58going to be generating a ton of your
4:00receptions in a shallow area on screens
4:02or on crossers, you are going to be able
4:04to either need to break tackles or force
4:07miss tackles, which Luther Burton has
4:08already proven that he could do. Now, we
4:11do need to address the fact that he was
4:13a part-time player for the beginning of
4:15the 2026 season. 34 of his 47 catches
4:18came in the final eight games. He was a
4:20top 16 wide receiver in the fantasy
4:22postseason. Obviously, including the
4:24monumental performance in week 17 in
4:27your championship week helped our friend
4:28Sam Sherman win $2 million. That week
4:31three game, I mean, hey, we're going to
4:33present all sides of this argument. That
4:35week three game with 101 yards, it looks
4:37really good, right? Well, it's only kind
4:39of good when you realize that 75 of
4:41those yards came on a trick play. A 75
4:44yard flea flicker touchdown. Martin
4:46Luther Burden didn't basically do
4:47anything. I think you can credit all of
4:49that to Ben Johnson and to Caleb
4:51Williams. Caleb Williams, by the way, a
4:53huge part of this argument. But I think
4:55what we saw from Luther Burton in the
4:57back half of the season is this is not a
4:59Cadaras Tony. This to me is not even a
5:02Gabe Davis situation. Luther Burton was
5:04a 30 He was the 36th overall pick. There
5:07was a ton of draft capital there. He
5:09probably would have been a first round
5:10pick if the entire Missouri football
5:12program, his final season, did not just
5:14absolutely go in the bin. But to me, he
5:16has proved that he can be a starter.
5:18Perhaps most important of this whole
5:20thing is the vacated volume and the
5:22options that the Chicago Bears have
5:24because a lot of times we get in these
5:26situations, you know, I'm thinking of
5:27historical examples. Gabe Davis is a
5:29great one. Cadarius Tony for the 2023
5:33Kansas City Chiefs is a big one. When
5:35you look at the guys who remain on the
5:37offense, what would be the option for
5:39Luther Burden to not earn the volume
5:42necessary to pay off his wide receiver
5:4421 tag in the fourth round? 15 endzone
5:46targets were vacated with DJ Moore and
5:48Oli Zakius out. Burden did have zero
5:51targets inside the 10 in 2025. This is
5:54an argument that Rich Reebar has
5:55processed for Luther Burton. Like if you
5:58look stylistically at the guys remaining
6:00in that offense, you could realistically
6:02say, well, Lovelin is probably going to
6:04lead the team in end zone targets and
6:06then Roma Dunay is the more prototypical
6:08and classic touchdown scorer. However,
6:10one thing that I would like to clearly
6:12point out there though is that Aman Ross
6:14St. Brown for the Lions and in the Ben
6:16Johnson offense, obviously he kind of
6:18left the architecture of an offense that
6:20the Lions also used in 2025. A man Ross
6:23St. Brown is not the physical prototype
6:26of a dominant red zone touchdownscoring
6:29wide receiver. Yet, he was able to score
6:31touchdowns above expectation every year
6:33that he played with Ben Johnson. With
6:36the targets left, 8.6% or 8.6 expected
6:40touchdowns are off the table. Now, it's
6:42possible that I'm completely wrong and
6:43Coloulston Lovelin scores 12 touchdowns
6:45and Roma Dunes is a dominant red zone
6:47wide receiver. However, I don't really
6:49think that Adun has been all that
6:51impressive in the National Football
6:53League. His yards per route run is less
6:55than half of Luther Burton after his
6:57rookie season. He's dealing with a foot
6:59injury that he did not have surgery on.
7:01And he noted that he's probably never
7:03going to feel the same running again as
7:06a result of that broken foot. And I
7:08think probably the most interesting
7:10thing about Luther Burton and the
7:12Chicago Bears is that the fantasy
7:14football industry refuses to pick a
7:16winner here. I've got their aggregated
7:18projections from Fantasy Pros, Roto
7:20Wire, My Own Stuff, and Mike Clays.
7:22We've got 980 aggregated yards for Roma
7:25Dunes, 957 for Burden, and 916 for
7:29Coulson Lovelin. Is that how often teams
7:32really play their offenses, like if you
7:34think about the great offenses, if you
7:36think about teams that are going to win
7:38their division, if you think about teams
7:39that have Super Bowl aspirations, which
7:41I think the Bears can reasonably have,
7:43right? They still had their they still
7:45had their quarterback on a rookie
7:46contract. They made some splashy
7:48personnel moves in the offseason. Ben
7:50Johnson got his guys and Burton in the
7:522025 NFL draft. Generally speaking,
7:55there is going to be a winner. I am
7:57picking Luther Burton as the winner. And
7:59I do think Coloulston Lovelin is also a
8:01phenomenal fantasy football pick. But if
8:03I look at the guy here who is most
8:05likely to dominate target volume, if we
8:08want a pattern match to the Detroit
8:10Lions offense that Ben Johnson ran,
8:12Burton is the St. Brown. Adun would be
8:15the Jameson Williams type. And Lovelin
8:17can very easily be an upgraded version
8:19of Leaporta. The key difference being in
8:21this offense, there is no Jir Gibbs.
8:23There's not a running back who is going
8:25to demand 20 touches per game. There's
8:27not a running back who is going to
8:28accumulate 80 targets in a given season.
8:31So, there's a little bit of meat left on
8:33the bone for Luther Burton to be the
8:36dominant target winning wide receiver. I
8:38mean, even if we extend the target
8:39earning profiles back to college, Burden
8:42had a better targets per route run and a
8:44better target earning profile than Adun
8:46did when they were both in college. The
8:50Burden AOT gives us some great pattern
8:52matching for Aman R St. Brown. Burden's
8:54cumulative A dot as a rookie 7.67. Ammon
8:58Ros St. Brown's AOT in his final season
9:017.67.
9:02Now obviously I think that it is a
9:05little absurd to say that we know that
9:07Luther Burden is as good as Aman Ras
9:09Brown. He's got a lot of work left to
9:10do. Though again there is some pattern
9:12matching there where St. Brown started
9:14very slowly as a rookie and then ended
9:16up being a league winner down the
9:17stretch. Burton didn't reach the overall
9:20highs that St. Brown did and he was
9:22actually highly drafted which should
9:24cause us to evaluate their playing time
9:27in a different way. But as Ben Johnson
9:29himself said, I am buying Luther Burden
9:32stock right now. He said that after the
9:35organized team activities in May 2026.
9:38And I choose to believe Ben Johnson. I
9:40think that it is a little bit silly to
9:42not pick a winner for the Chicago Bears.
9:44And I think a a large part of the
9:46silliness is due to people's reticence
9:47to think that Caleb Williams can
9:49improve. But Caleb Williams is going to
9:51be a huge improver in my mind in 2026.
9:54He actually was legitimately below
9:56average in 2024. Had one of the worst
9:59sack rates we have ever seen for a
10:01rookie quarterback. He also had one of
10:02the largest of all time sack
10:05improvements from year 1 to year two. I
10:07would I don't actually think it's absurd
10:09to say that Caleb Williams from year 1
10:11to year two improved about as much as
10:13Josh Allen did from year 1 to year two.
10:15Do I think that Caleb Williams can be as
10:18good as Josh Allen? I mean, maybe if you
10:19got me like alone at the end of a night
10:21and and I was feeling really loose and I
10:23was doing a little bit of truth serum,
10:25but I think realistically we can say
10:27that one of Caleb Williams's biggest
10:28problems in year two was he missed a ton
10:31of layups. He was one of the worst
10:32quarterbacks again in the most recent 5
10:34years in terms of overall completion
10:36percentage. And what the Bears offense
10:38did was they did the NBA equivalent of
10:40saying three is greater than two. Caleb
10:42Williams missed a lot of layups, but of
10:44I mean, look, we all watch the playoff
10:45game and we all watch them at the end of
10:47the season. He made a ton of the
10:48difficult throws and a ton of the insane
10:50plays that you can't really teach at the
10:53end of games. I think that Caleb
10:55Williams and Luther Burton are going to
10:56have perfect synergy this upcoming
10:59season. My final verdict here is that
11:02Luther Burton is one of the biggest
11:03smashes on the board in round four. He
11:06has a potential best pick on the board
11:09resume in the fourth round. We are
11:11definitely paying a a very high price
11:14for a guy who has not accomplished
11:15anything. But if I'm looking forward to
11:172027 and I'm looking at the Bears
11:19offense and I'm saying, who do I think
11:21can be a onetwo turn pick this upcoming
11:23year, I think Roma Dunay would have to
11:25show something that we basically have no
11:27evidence for, which is that he can be
11:29both a huge target earner and a
11:31touchdown scorer. The way that the NFL
11:34is trending with the average depth of
11:35target going down and the most important
11:37thing being success rate and sustaining
11:39these long drives, I think that Luther
11:41Burton is the best fit there. I think
11:43that he is going to benefit greatly from
11:45Sam Roush and Cole KT playing more. Like
11:48if we look at the way the Bears offense
11:50is structured, they're going to play a
11:51ton of 12 personnel. That's why they
11:53took Sam Rous. And that's why they've
11:55not invested anything at their wide
11:56receiver three position. It's why they
11:58let DJ Moore go. It's why they let me
12:00Zakius go. They feel very comfortable
12:02with their base 11 personnel being
12:04Burden, Adun, and Coloulston Lovelin.
12:07and then a rotation between Sam Roush,
12:09Cole KT, and then a rotation at running
12:12back between DeAndre Swift and Kyle
12:14Manungai. If this team ends up with 600
12:16dropbacks, it's not even impossible to
12:18me that Burden could be a smash, Lovelin
12:21could be a smash, and a Dunce could
12:23still kind of pay off a round six tag.
12:25Burton is the prototypical year 2 lead
12:28candidate. There's a ton of vacated
12:30targets on this offense. Ben Johnson is
12:32certainly one of, in my opinion, one of
12:34the two or three best play callers in
12:36the entire of the NFL. And then another
12:38hidden point there is that there is some
12:40real offensive continuity for Caleb
12:42Williams. Even going back to college,
12:44Caleb Williams has had a ton of change.
12:46He transferred schools. Lincoln Riley
12:48kind of lost his mojo at the end.
12:51Although Caleb Williams was a Heisman
12:52Trophy winner, then the Bears coaching
12:55staff was one of the worst in the entire
12:56NFL as rookie season. And then he got so
12:59much better in year two. I am expecting
13:01the entire Bears offense to trend up and
13:04I think that our guy Luther Burden can
13:06be the new answer to Aman Ross Brown
13:09inside of this offense. If you want more
13:11analysis, my rankings or the season pass
13:13over on Flock Fantasy, you can get that
13:15for only $34 if you use promo code
13:17Davis. Link to that is in the
13:18description and in the comments. Make
13:20sure you like the video and then like
13:22and subscribe to this channel as well.
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