This Research Changed My Entire Fantasy Football Strategy

Bijan Robinson is an elite running back asset, providing a massive 150-point value-over-replacement edge over the RB12 and RB24. The source uses him as a benchmark for early-round running backs, noting that the market correctly prices the high projected scoring output of top-tier running backs.

Breece Hall is recommended as an elite running back target to secure in the first three rounds of a draft to maximize value-over-replacement.

Brock Bowers is identified as part of an elite tight end tier alongside Trey McBride that offers an insanely high projected scoring output and significant value over replacement. The source recommends drafting him as a priority target, noting that failing to secure one of the top-tier tight ends necessitates waiting on the position.

The source advises against targeting C.J. Stroud in redraft leagues, suggesting he is not an optimal starter compared to other available options.

CeeDee Lamb is part of the elite wide receiver tier that sees a 25% drop in projected scoring when compared to the rest of the position. The source uses him as a reference point to illustrate the continued drop-off in wide receiver ceiling value after the initial tier of players.

Christian Watson is used as an example of middle-to-late round wide receivers who have no significant projectable difference in fantasy points per game compared to peers like Jayden Reed, highlighting the flatness of wide receiver scoring in that range.

Cole Kmet is identified as a viable tight end option for managers who miss out on top-tier targets like Brock Bowers or Trey McBride.

Derrick Henry is recommended as an elite running back target to secure in the first three rounds of a draft to maximize value-over-replacement.

DK Metcalf is the WR36 with 152 PPR points; he is an example of a receiver who can increase his fantasy production through better game results without needing a change in offensive role.

Drake Maye is considered an acceptable target in the seventh round, though the source notes that drafting running backs in that range is often a higher priority.

Evan Engram is noted as a tight end option to consider if managers fail to secure the top-tier targets; otherwise, the advice is to wait on the position.

Fernando Mendoza is cited as a quarterback that fantasy managers should avoid starting.

The source explicitly advises against starting Geno Smith in fantasy leagues, categorizing him as a player to avoid.

The source expresses a personal preference for Isaiah Likely as a late-round tight end option, while acknowledging that the math suggests waiting on tight ends outside the top three is a viable strategy.

Ja'Marr Chase is a top-tier wide receiver who provides significant value over replacement. He is part of an elite group that represents a distinct tier in projected scoring before the position flattens out significantly.

Jamarian Price is used to illustrate the steady, efficient decline in projected fantasy points for running backs as draft position drops, serving as a contrast to the high-scoring elite tier.

Jahmyr Gibbs is an elite running back target who should be prioritized within the first three rounds of a fantasy draft. The source highlights that Gibbs and Bijan Robinson provide a massive 150-point value-over-replacement edge over the RB12 and RB24, confirming that early-round running back scoring potential is accurately priced by the market.

The source expresses a personal preference for Jake Ferguson, noting that as the TE14, he out-projects the WR56 and RB39, which highlights the value of starting tight ends in the flex position. However, the source acknowledges that mathematically, there is little difference between tight ends ranked 12 through 24.

Jameson Williams projects for an average of 174 points; unlike running backs, his fantasy output can improve through better game results rather than requiring a specific role change.

Javonte Williams is recommended as an elite running back target to secure in the first three rounds of a draft to maximize value-over-replacement.

The source uses Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a reference point to illustrate the significant drop-off in wide receiver ceiling value following elite options.

Jayden Daniels is considered a 'fine' quarterback option, but he is not a priority target given the flat value curve at the position.

Jayden Reed is noted as having a nearly identical fantasy point projection to his teammate Christian Watson and T. Higgins, illustrating the flatness of wide receiver scoring in the middle rounds and suggesting the value gap between such players is minimal.

Josh Allen serves as the benchmark for elite quarterback production. The source notes that 82% of the QB1's projected points are still available at the QB12 position, which supports a strategy of waiting on the position rather than paying up for top-tier signal callers.

The source is avoiding Lamar Jackson in drafts because his current cost is not justified by the projected volume and the minimal point differential compared to lower-tier quarterbacks.

Michael Pittman Jr. is used to show that wide receivers in the middle-to-late draft range are effectively interchangeable in terms of projected fantasy points per game, with players like Parker Washington falling within a 1.5-point range of his output.

The source uses Nico Collins as a reference point to illustrate the continued drop-off in wide receiver ceiling value after the initial tier of players.

Parker Washington is cited as an example of a wide receiver whose projected fantasy points per game are within a 1.5-point range of players like Michael Pittman Jr., highlighting the lack of differentiation among middle-to-late round wide receivers.

Pat Freiermuth is a strong late-round tight end target for drafters who wait on the position. He is effectively ignored in many drafts despite being locked into a role running 75% of routes for a team with a positive pass-rate-over-expectation.

Puka Nacua is a top-tier wide receiver who provides significant value over replacement. He is part of an elite tier that sees a significant drop-off in projected scoring compared to later-drafted receivers, with the source noting a massive ceiling value gap between him and players like JSN.

Quentin Johnston projects for 135 points as the WR50; he is cited as a player who can hit big weeks without a change in role or target distribution.

The source likes Terrance Ferguson as a late-round tight end option, noting that there is no penalty for waiting to draft tight ends if you miss out on the top-tier elite options.

Trey McBride is identified as part of an elite tight end tier alongside Brock Bowers, possessing a 29% scoring advantage over the tight end six range. The source considers him a priority target and suggests that if you do not draft him or Bowers, you should wait on the position.

Zach Charbonnet is cited as an example of lower-drafted running backs who do not score a high volume of fantasy points, reinforcing the trend that RB scoring declines steadily throughout the draft.