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The Perfect Fantasy Football Draft (1.03)

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11 min
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Jul 28, 2026
Published
Tue, July 28, 2026
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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

329
0:00Drafting from the third slot in the
0:01first round does have some unique
0:02challenges this year, but of course you
0:04do get to begin with the best wide
0:05receiver in fantasy football, Ja'Marr
0:07Chase. I would not take Puka Nacua over
0:09Ja'Marr Chase. Where it gets a little
0:11bit more difficult when you're drafting
0:12from the 1.3 is in the second and the
0:15third round. I've got the ESPN ADP
0:18pulled up here on flockfantasy.com. If
0:20you guys want to try some fantasy
0:21football drafts over there, you can as
0:23well. We actually get lucky here in this
0:26little draft with the ability to take
0:28Chase Brown or Kenneth Walker. I'm
0:30actually going to select Kenneth Walker
0:32ahead of Chase Brown. I just don't think
0:33it's very realistic that you're actually
0:35going to get Chase Brown there. I would
0:37be fine taking the Bengals together, but
0:39we're going to hue towards reality. We
0:40do have a start that I love in drafts,
0:42which is the ability to do running back
0:44and wide receiver. Back in the day, the
0:45magic formula used to be running back
0:47running back. I definitely do not think
0:49that is the case, particularly when you
0:51are drafting from the 1.3. I think you
0:53want the extreme ceiling from Ja'Marr
0:55Chase or Puka Nacua. We are going to
0:58select A.J. Brown with our third round
1:00pick ahead of Garrett Wilson, ahead of
1:02Olave, ahead of Pickens, and crucially,
1:04ahead of Breece Hall, ahead of Javonte
1:06Williams. I think that when you are
1:08given the last of the tier at the
1:10high-end wide receivers, you need to
1:11take it.
1:12And you guys can see with this selection
1:14right here, we are in a much better spot
1:17having taken A.J. Brown because when we
1:19come up here, we can select Tee Higgins,
1:21Jaylen Waddle, Quentin Johnston, Luther
1:22Burden, or Mike Evans. But what we
1:24definitely want to do is lock up our
1:26running back two position. We are going
1:28to take De'Von Achane Swift there with
1:30our pick in the fourth round. So we have
1:32what I think is basically the best start
1:34possible in redraft fantasy football
1:36this year. We have got a high-end wide
1:39receiver. We have got a high-end wide
1:40receiver two, a high-end running back,
1:42and a running back two that is pretty
1:44dependable. Luther Burden is on the
1:46board for us here. Mike Evans is on the
1:47board for us here. We are going to
1:49select Luther Burden. I of course did
1:51the video on the channel about Luther
1:52Burden. I do think he is basically the
1:54best wide receiver pick on the board
1:56right now.
1:57But structurally, we feel pretty good
2:00about our options at all positions. We
2:03skipped on all the elite tight ends
2:04because it didn't make sense to take,
2:06you know, it didn't really ever make
2:08sense for us to. I guess we could have
2:09taken Quentin Johnston over De'Andre
2:12Swift. I also would have thought about
2:13taking Loveland over Luther Burden if we
2:15had that option, but we didn't have that
2:17option. Now, this again is very rare.
2:20Obviously, you're seeing the computer
2:21giving me a chance to take Mike Evans
2:23here. Mike Evans is not going to be
2:24available in the sixth round in your
2:26league. So, what we are going to do
2:27instead, we're actually going to take
2:29Jaylen Warren. So, we now have our
2:31alternating. We have three running
2:32backs, three wide receivers. We feel
2:34very good about our flex spot in this
2:36league. We are not going to be looking
2:37at quarterbacks here. There would be a
2:39temptation in the seventh round to start
2:41thinking about our stacks. Do we want to
2:43take Caleb Williams or Luther Burden? Do
2:45we want to take Drake May? Do we want to
2:47take Joe Burrow? I mean, obviously, some
2:49of the high-end quarterbacks are already
2:51off the board. Burrow went, May went. We
2:53could take Caleb Williams. We are not
2:54going to.
2:56I think more so than any other year I
2:58can ever remember, this is a year of
3:00attempting to win the flex. I'm going to
3:02select Christian Watson. You could sub
3:04Mecole Hardman in there. You could sub
3:06Jordan Addison in there, you know, in if
3:08the context of your league is a little
3:10bit different. It doesn't really matter.
3:12I mean, if you have a strong opinion,
3:14then I guess it does. We just saw a
3:15bunch of quarterbacks go off the board.
3:17Purdy went off, Nix, Dak, and Lawrence
3:19all go. Round eight is where I would
3:21start thinking about a quarterback. My
3:23observed experience though is that
3:25fantasy managers have just gotten a lot
3:27better about this. The most recent
3:29couple years, quarterbacks tend to go
3:31later in redraft formats than ever
3:33before. Tucker Kraft is on the PUP list
3:35right now. He might even start the
3:36season on the PUP list, so we are not
3:38going to take him. We are instead going
3:40to take JK Dobbins. You'll notice I've
3:43only taken running backs and wide
3:44receivers through eight rounds. That is
3:46basically a normal strategy for me at
3:49this point. I think
3:51with scores lower, so if this makes
3:53sense, in fantasy football, the average
3:56score of the running back two has gone
3:58down. The average score of the wide
3:59receiver two has gone down. The average
4:01score of the wide receiver three has
4:03cratered. The average wide receiver
4:05three score in 2025 was below 10 PPR
4:08points. I want to be focused on getting
4:11as many breakout bets as my flex options
4:14as possible. So, I'm going to select
4:16Josh Downs at this pick. Alec Pierce
4:18went on the physically unable to perform
4:20list. Now, of course, there's a chance
4:21that the Indianapolis Colts sign Keenan
4:23Allen. If that does end up being true, I
4:26would maybe be a smidgen lower on Downs,
4:28but Downs as a full-time player is
4:30something that I am incredibly
4:31interested in in fantasy football. He
4:33averages over 10.5 fantasy points per
4:35game in the 10 career games where he has
4:38ran over 75% of the Indianapolis Colts
4:40route. I think JK Dobbins can kind of
4:42hold us over as we wait to see what
4:44happens in the Steelers backfield. So,
4:46we feel great about this situation right
4:48here. I'm going to add in Justin Herbert
4:51as our quarterback cuz I just don't
4:52think it's realistic that Caleb Williams
4:54would be available here. That's just
4:56based on I mean
4:58I mean, I've done hundreds, thousands of
5:00fantasy football drafts already this
5:02year, and I know that Caleb Williams is
5:04not going to go after Bo Nix. So, just
5:06to make it a little bit more realistic,
5:08we are going to take Herbert. We're
5:09going to tab over to the tight end
5:10position. Now, if Tucker Kraft was
5:13available here, I would take him. I
5:15don't think he's going to start the
5:16season on the physically unable to
5:18perform list. So, we are going to take
5:19Mark Andrews as our starting tight end
5:21here. Andrews has very little
5:23competition at the tight end position.
5:25There's a chance the team signs Darren
5:27Waller. They drafted Matthew Hibner and
5:29Josh Quevas to be their backup tight
5:31ends, but they let Charlie Kolar go.
5:33They let Isaiah Likely go. They don't
5:36have a real second wide receiver who is
5:37a target earner. None of the guys other
5:39than Zay Flowers on the roster project
5:42have a targets per route run above 20%.
5:44Bateman, Jacobi Lane, Elijah Serratt,
5:47these are complimentary players. I think
5:49we could very easily see another 10
5:50touchdown season for Mark Andrews. And
5:53now, because we have our quarterback and
5:55our tight end situation solved, we can
5:57go back to stock piling some zero
5:59running back guys. We feel very good
6:01about our wide receiver, so we can add
6:03in Keaton Mitchell. Nice that he is
6:05teammates with Justin Herbert. He is one
6:06of my big breakout bets at running back
6:09that will be covered in another video on
6:10the channel. In fact, already has been
6:12covered several times on the channel,
6:14but I think Keaton Mitchell is a
6:15phenomenal zero running back pick this
6:17year in fantasy football.
6:20Now, a key element of strategy for me
6:22this year is I actually want to have two
6:25tight ends on a lot of my fantasy
6:27football teams. I think that it's going
6:28to be too hard to find a clear, clear
6:30breakout, and I want to give myself
6:32multiple bites at the apple. Tight ends
6:34are actually more important than ever in
6:36fantasy football because 12 personnel is
6:39going to be played at its highest clip
6:40of all time. In fact, last year we
6:43already saw the trend up of 12
6:44personnel, which means two tight ends on
6:46the field, which has brought wide
6:47receiver scoring and wide receiver
6:49targets down. Tight end scoring and
6:51tight end averages have gone up. We are
6:53going to add Dalton Kincaid as our
6:55second tight end here. Dalton Kincaid
6:57was top five in all of football last
6:59year amongst tight ends in targets per
7:01route run, fantasy points per targets
7:03per route run, first downs per route
7:05run. All that is very fancy, nerdy ways
7:07of saying when Dalton Kincaid is on the
7:09field, he's a very good fantasy football
7:11player. He just has not been able to
7:12earn a full-time role for the Buffalo
7:14Bills. Reports are that Kincaid is
7:16healthy, and I think that the team would
7:19I mean, it would be a huge benefit for
7:21the Buffalo Bills for Dalton Kincaid to
7:23be a full-time player for them. If his
7:25knee is healthy, I would anticipate him
7:27able to more contribute in the run game
7:30as a blocker, which would earn more
7:32snaps for him. And then we're going to
7:34take one final wide receiver here. Now,
7:36this is going to depend on when your
7:37draft is. If your draft is on August
7:4030th, Stefon Diggs is going to be
7:42signed. He is not going to be available
7:44to be taken in the 14th round.
7:46You should be able to take De'Shawn
7:47Shribling who we're going to take here.
7:49Christian Kirk did just get banged up
7:51when I was recording this video. I would
7:52anticipate Christian Kirk mostly being
7:54banged up for the entirety of the
7:56season. That's just kind of the way that
7:58things go. Now, according to the
8:00projected points in our rankings on
8:02flockfantasy.com,
8:03I was third in this league which makes,
8:05you know, honestly that makes sense to
8:07me. We got Justin Herbert who I think is
8:09going to be a top 10 quarterback this
8:11year. He should be trending for a
8:12breakout season with Mike McDaniel. Mike
8:14McDaniel generated the highest scoring
8:16team in the NFL with Tua Tagovailoa. I
8:18think we can all agree that Justin
8:20Herbert is better than Tua at this stage
8:21of their career. Now, I'm a little bit
8:23worried about the structural fit between
8:25Herbert and McDaniel. Herbert has
8:28generally been better with faster
8:29offenses where he's been able to get out
8:31of the pocket. McDaniel does play more
8:33of a point and click system. It's
8:34actually one of the reasons why I think
8:36they stuck with Tua in Miami as long as
8:38they did is those two were actually a
8:40good stylistic fit. Our running back
8:42room of Kenneth Walker, De'Andre Swift,
8:44Jaylen Warren, JK Dobbins, and Keaton
8:46Mitchell. To me, you can screenshot
8:48that. You can put that on your cheat
8:50sheet. You can take that to your draft.
8:51When you're drafting out of the 1.3,
8:53that's about as good as it gets in terms
8:55of a running back room. Kenneth Walker
8:57is going to catch, in my mind, about
8:59five passes per game. He had 4.6
9:02receptions per game in 2024. His
9:04injury-shortened season, that is the
9:06role that Andy Reid has imagined for him
9:08in Kansas City this year. Jaylen Warren
9:10has a chance to be the clear lead back
9:12for the Pittsburgh Steelers in a way
9:14that he never has done before. And even
9:16if he is just a primary passing down
9:18back, no team is going to aim more of
9:20their throws towards running back than
9:21the Pittsburgh Steelers. Dobbins and
9:23Keaton Mitchell are very nice reserves.
9:25You can even start JK Dobbins in a pinch
9:27if you had to.
9:29A key element this year in fantasy
9:31football is, how are we going to find
9:33ceiling at wide receiver? I think
9:35there's a group of six guys, Jamar
9:37Chase, Puka Nacua, JSN, Lamb, Jefferson,
9:41and St. Brown. They are a clear cut
9:43above. They are the few groups of wide
9:45receivers who can score 16, 17, 18
9:48fantasy points per game. As long as you
9:49get one of those guys, you feel great.
9:51AJ Brown has been an 18 fantasy points
9:54per game score two years ago. He can get
9:56back to that level for the Patriots.
9:58Luther Burden is my favorite breakout
10:00bet in fantasy football. I did a whole
10:0115-minute video on that. Christian
10:03Watson returned from his ACL injury to a
10:06full-time route share for the first time
10:08in his career for the Packers last year.
10:10And then we have our breakout bets in
10:11Josh Downs and Jahan Dotson Stribling.
10:13Mark Andrews is our steady veteran at
10:15tight end and Kincaid is one of our big
10:18breakout bets. Structuring teams this
10:20way out of the 1.3 with those
10:22alternating running back and wide
10:23receiver picks is one of my absolute
10:25favorite things to do. If you enjoyed
10:28this video, make sure to like it, leave
10:30a comment down below, and you can check
10:31out all my content over on
10:32flockfantasy.com. You can get a discount
10:35over there using code Davis or the
10:36season pass for only 35 $34 using code

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