0:00Running back thirst in fantasy football in 2026 is out of control. So I have come up with a list of startable wide
0:05receivers who are available after pick 100. I use the Flock fantasy average draft position tool to find receivers who are going after pick 100 on our site
0:13on Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo, Underdog, CBS, and the FFPC to mine startable wide receivers. because I have found that on average over the last decade, there are
0:24eight wide receivers who go outside the top 50 overall in wide receivers who end up having a top 36 finish, which means
0:31that they would be startable in a 12 team league where you start three wide receivers. We are going to begin our
0:36list with a potential breakout and there are a mix of both breakouts and steady Eddie veterans on this list. We are
0:42gonna begin with one Mr. Ted Hurst who was a really intriguing prospect coming out of Georgia State 9.9 RAS 99th percentile he transferred from Valdasta
0:52State to Georgia State instead of going to Bama instead of going to Florida instead of going to Miami to a big
0:57school he transferred where he was a big fish in a relatively small pond and landed in a perfect spot a third round
1:04pick to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where he is going to immediately be able to compete with Jaylen McMillan to be one
1:10of the boundary wide receivers. Mike Evans left and Ted Hurst and Jel McMillan are going to try and fill in his role. Ibuka already has a toe spane.
1:18Chris Godwin is heading into his age 31 season and suffered a debilitating injury two seasons ago that zapped his per route efficiency. I think that Ted
1:26Hurst is the best deep threat and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. And I think that his youth and his athleticism are just so much more dynamic than what
1:33Jaylen McMillan has to offer. McMillan is a sub 1.5 yards per route run player.
1:38Now, McMillan has had some good fantasy games because he has generated touchdowns, but his peripheral statistics are quite bad. I think
1:46following the trend, Ted Hurst has the ability to play better than Jaylen McMillan. He also has the ability to take Chris Godwin or Igbuka snaps if
1:54either of them are injured and we have already seen Igbuka be injured in his NFL career and be injured to the point
1:59that they're saying they're not even sure if he is going to be available in week one. Ted Hurst is one of my
2:04favorite sleepers later in drafts and frankly you probably don't even have to draft him. You can leave him on your waiverwire watch list and see how many
2:11routes he runs in week one and what the overall offensive usage for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks like. Our next player is going to be Pat Bryant of the
2:19Denver Broncos. I'm kind of going out on a limb on this one. However, one of the things I found in my research is that
2:25the most predictive thing for wide receiver breakouts year-over-year is not yards per route run. The median yards per route run for a wide receiver who
2:33was drafted outside the top 50 wide receivers who finished as a top 36 wide receiver was just 1.38. The most predictive thing was actually routes.
2:42And routes are going to be there for Pat Bryant in spades because the Denver Broncos were one of the most pass heavy
2:48teams in the NFL last season. Bo Nicks actually led all quarterbacks in pass attempts last year. It's one of my favorite stats from last season. And Pat
2:56Bryant was trending towards breaking out at the very end of the season in their playoff game. He actually saw the first
3:02three targets of the game before he was injured and out for the rest of the postseason run. And the way the Denver
3:08Broncos passing game is trending, they don't have a tight end that is going to earn targets between Evan Ingram and Adam Troutman. They bring in Jaylen Wadd
3:15who is a phenomenal breakout that this year. And I definitely want you to draft Jaylen Wadd. But Courtland Sutton is now
3:20trending down in terms of efficiency both in first downs per route run, targets per route run, and yards per route run to the point that they have
3:27been calling Pat Bryant Patty Ice in practice for the Denver Broncos. I think that what we're going to see the Broncos
3:33do is they're going to use 11 as their base personnel, which is not something that all NFL teams are going to be doing
3:38this upcoming year. I quite liked Pat Bryant as a prospect coming out of Illinois. One of my favorite facts about him was that he caught not one, not two,
3:46but three walk-off touchdowns for the University of Illinois. His final season in college, the 7.06 ras, 2.12 yards per route run for an entire collegiate
3:56career for someone who's not at a power program is actually quite good. I know it shows 30th percentile, but the way he
4:02actually acrewed it is a little bit more impressive. He is going to ice Marvin Mims. He's going to ice Troy Franklin.
4:08And I think there is a nonzero chance that he ends up icing Courtland Sutton who is clearly on the downswing of his
4:15career and by the way has actually shown it in the NFL to some degree had the nice game against the Kansas City Chiefs
4:21was trending towards having a nice game in their postseason. The overall statistics are not great. Only 1.32 yards per run very similar to Jaylen
4:29McMillan. But given the cost of Pat Bryant, he is one of my favorite breakout bets in fantasy football this year. If you do not like the Pat Bryant
4:37selection, why don't we go further west inside of that division and go to Trey Harris, who is a high second round pick
4:43to the Los Angeles Chargers. Actually did immediately get on the field for them. Played 48% of the Chargers snaps last year. 1.21 yards per route run is
4:52very, very bad. Much worse than his prospect profile. Over the course of his collegiate career, he had three yards per route run. But his final season at
5:00Miss, this guy had 5.2 yards per route run. I I think it's probably honestly fake because having that good of yards
5:07per route run like almost actually makes me think something is wrong there. But he was insanely productive. 128 yards per game, seven and a half receptions
5:14per game when he was in college. And when I look at what Justin Herbert can do inside of this Mike McDaniel offense,
5:20one of the things I think is why can Trey Harris not be one of the most productive tertiary wide receivers in
5:26the NFL? We have seen amazing offenses have five players score over, you know, 200 fantasy points. I actually ran a filter this morning on Statad that found
5:35that there were multiple instances in the last five years of six players on the same offense averaging over 13 fantasy points per game. I think that my
5:44I think that the Los Angeles Chargers can actually be that team this upcoming season. I think you can see Lad have a
5:50good year, QJ score his long touchdowns.
5:52Amari and Hampton do his thing. Justin Herbert have a phenomenal 20 fantasy points per game season. But Trey Harris is the cheapest part of this offense.
5:59Everyone thinks Mike McDaniel is a genius. everyone. I mean, my YouTube comments are always telling me how good Justin Herbert is. I I took Patrick
6:05Mahomes over Justin Herbert in a mock draft in a video last week, and people were castigating me in the comments. So,
6:12Trey Harris versus Quinton Johnson versus Lad McConn is just one of the most interesting playing time and target distribution bets in the entire NFL.
6:20Obviously, if it follows the target distribution from last year, I will be laughably long, laughably wrong about Trey Harris. However, we do see year one
6:28to year two jumps in ability all the time. I think a mistake we make quite a bit as fantasy football players in this
6:34day and age is just assuming that who a player is as a rookie is who they are going to be forever. We have gotten so
6:40spoiled with some incredible rookie performances, right? So many of our favorite fantasy football wide receivers and running backs and tight ends were
6:48quite good as rookies, right? Not everyone is going to be Jamar Chase. Not even everyone is going to be Rashi Rice
6:52where Rashi Rice, I think we all know, is not a great player, but scored a bunch of fantasy points in the back half
6:57of his rookie season. Trey Harris might just need a little bit of time to develop. You know, wide receiver is a
7:02tough position. Trey Harris also was clearly in a suboptimal offense last year where Lad Mananki also cratered just the overall offensive production. I
7:10mean, Justin Herbert scored less than 17 fantasy points per game last year given how poor the Chargers offensive environment was. He is one of my
7:18favorite ways on betting on the Chargers offense because he is so inexpensive. My guy Adnai Mitchell is next up and I'll
7:25tell you guys this right now. If there is a lesson to be learned here, if there is a true breakout, a guy who finishes
7:32as a top 20, top 15 wide receiver on this list, I think there is a strong chance that is Adnai Mitchell. You have
7:38to look at the advance numbers, right?
7:39Because his regular box score numbers are not that impressive over the course of his career. He generated 33 receptions for 432 yards and two
7:47touchdowns last year. Only career 1.5 yards per route run. If you look at some of the advanced data though, the fantasy
7:52points data suite 2.0, I know some of the true media stuff, his separation at the catch point is amongst the best in
7:59the NFL, which I think is really, really important inside of the New York Jets offense. I also think just in general,
8:05the Jets are being a little bit discounted because, well, they are the New York Jets. If you look at cumulative aggregate projections across the
8:12industry, the Jets are actually projected to be eighth in the National Football League in completions and inside the top half of the league in
8:18overall passing yards. Now, they are dead last in actual scoring, but that's one where the dog can end up chasing its
8:25own tail. If the markets or the projections end up being correct about the Jets being relatively competent on offense, then guys like Adai Mitchell,
8:32who've never really, in my opinion, gotten a fair shake can be huge breakouts. I think the market is definitely making the assumption that
8:39Garrett Wilson is just going to be an absolute target dominator again.
8:42However, if you look at the total accumulation of Garrett Wilson's career, there's no arguing against it. The guy has been disappointing. Now, you can
8:50make excuses for him the same way I am making excuses for Adnai Mitchell. Poor quarterback play, poor offensive line play. He's played through some injuries
8:57for Adnai Mitchell. Actually, none of those things have applied. Adnai Mitchell, I think his coaches and everyone around him would agree. If this
9:04guy could just be serious, if he could just be locked in, if he could focus on the details, he would be one of the best
9:09wide receivers in the NFL. The reason why his production has always lagged, and this goes back to his time at the
9:15University of Texas, has just been he's not focused. He's the type of guy who makes an incredible acrobatic catch through a defender and then as he's
9:23scoring an 80 yard touchdown fumbles the ball out of the back of the end zone, right? I mean, that is who Adnai
9:27Mitchell has been and it's why he's so inexpensive in fantasy drafts. However, he is one of my absolute favorite bets to make in the 12th 13th round of drafts
9:35because if you do get Gino Smith playing above average, which Gino Smith has displayed above average quarterback play in his career and you get Adnai Mitchell
9:43with an 82% route share, then you are going to find one of the best values in fantasy football. Because again, one of
9:49the other things that my research found, and this was actually very surprising to me, because you guys know I love these
9:54fancy yards per route run metrics and things, but the number one correlation is just raw routes. All of the breakout guys, all of the guys who were drafted
10:03outside the top 50 over Weberwire pickups, the number one thing that correlates year-over-year, unless they were a rookie, was the amount of routes
10:10they had the preceding year. 306 routes for Adnai Mitchell I think does show the underlying thing which is there are reasons that this guy has continued to
10:19get chances despite the fact that he has mostly been a headache for his National Football League teams. So those have been some young guys. I'm going to I'm
10:28going to change direction on you guys right here and I'm going to give you a very boring one. Keenan Allen scored
10:3210.7 points per game last year. To begin last season he had 1917 198 106 and 28 fantasy points. Even last year with him
10:42tailing off, he still had 1.71 yards per route run. Keenan Allen is the perfect guy to add on a team where you started
10:49with four running backs through six rounds. A team where you take an elite quarterback if you take Josh Allen or maybe you took Brock Bowers. Maybe you
10:55took Brock Bowers and Lamar Jackson because you had an insane value, but that leaves you absolutely hurting at either your wide receiver three or your
11:02flex spot. I'm not saying that Kenan Allen can be this year's puka because I think we all know that is not in his
11:08range of outcomes. though he's not that far removed from literally a top three wide receiver season, 21.4 points per game in 2023. What I do think is that
11:17when we get to week one, when I am doing my rankings on flockfantasy.com, there is a pretty strong chance that I am
11:24ranking Keenan Allen inside my top 36 wide receivers. And when I look at daily fantasy projections, when I look at overall just point projections, Keenan
11:32Allen is going to project pretty well.
11:35And I prefer him at this stage to guys like Jerry Judy, guys like Calvin Ridley, who I do think could have been
11:40included in this video just as guys who are going to have a ton of raw routes. I mean, Jerry Judy last year was 29th in
11:45the National Football League in targets and second in the entire NFL in routes.
11:49It didn't turn into anything because his quarterback play was that bad. And Jerry Judy was also pretty bad. But Keenan Allen is an absolute lynch pin of an
11:57early running back strategy. But we do need some breakouts. And I'm going to give you a guy that again, I know you're
12:03all tomato tomato. You hate this guy.
12:05Xavier Worthy absolutely stunk it up last year. Did have 17 points in his return from injury. Did run an absurd amount of routes, 392 routes in only 14
12:15games, 482 routes overall. However, he said and the team said and everyone said, "Yeah, playing with a torn labum absolutely stunk. It was it was just
12:25very very difficult for a 22-year-old Xavier Worthy who weighs 165 pounds soaking wet to be a competent legitimate wide receiver playing with that injury.
12:34He's already returned from his injury. I you know you see the little yellow spectre there which means he is returning from an injury but he played
12:40in the Chiefs third preseason game.
12:42Reports are that he's fully healthy. And I'll tell you guys why I am comfortable making a big bet on Xavier Worthy this
12:48season. There is no way for the Chiefs to achieve their ceiling this year as a team without Xavier Worthy coming along.
12:54And maybe the Chiefs will just not be that team, right? Maybe all the haters and losers, of which there are many,
13:00will be correct. Mahomes will stink. The team is going to run with Kenneth Walker a ton. They're going to win nine games.
13:05They're going to miss the playoffs. I think all of that I'm admitting is within the realm of possibility, but at this cost in the 10th round, in the 11th
13:13round, you get a first round wide receiver who has shown fantasy points scoring ability in a small sample. I mean, he had the phenomenal game in the
13:21Super Bowl for fantasy football. did have 17 points against Jackson or against Baltimore in his first game last year, 20 points in his first career
13:28game, 16 points against the Chargers last year, 16 points against Buffalo, back-to-back 20 and 22 point games in the fantasy football postseason in 2024.
13:36Do I think that Xavier Worthy is one of the 10 or 15 or 20 best wide receivers in football? Honestly, no, I don't. I I
13:43think I'm past that point as a fan of Worthy, as a fan of the Chiefs, and just as someone who loves fantasy football, I
13:48think that that usage is not going to be what is there for him. But I do think at this stage of his career, he the hate
13:54has now gone too far where he is being it's being double counted that he got injured last season and then played
14:00through injury and then the overall offense looked bad. Well, that was true.
14:04My base expectation is that the Chiefs offense looks better this year. And if that is true, then the second on the
14:10team in earning targets should be a 10, 11, 12, 13 fantasy point per game score.
14:15Kind of depending on touchdown variance.
14:18And then our final guy here. I'll grant you that probably in your league, Deshun Stribbling is going to go before the
14:23double digits. If you were watching a fantasy football video, you are probably smart enough to know and your league mates are probably smart enough to know
14:30that no player is as hyped as Desan Stribbling right now. I'm hereby giving you permission to go ahead and take Deon
14:36Stribbling as early as you want. The prospect profile, as bad as it gets, did not break out until year five. 1.68
14:43yards per route run, 54 yards per game.
14:45Had to transfer schools three times.
14:47honestly never even really broke out. If he had landed anywhere else, I think even at pick 33, I think I would have
14:54been out. But the list of wide receivers who have absolutely smashed in Kyle Shanahan offenses when there has been no other alternative is a crazy list. Dante
15:02Pettis, Richie James, Kendrick Bourne. I mean, even Ricky Pearl, who was actually very similarly an overage prospect who never really broke out or had a
15:10questionable breakout profile, was leading the NFL in yards per game last season when he first got injured. Had the crazy smash week 17 his rookie year.
15:19Like, I never was convinced that Ricky Pieraw was good, but what I am convinced is that Brock Perie is very good. He is
15:24first in the NFL in his career in EPA per play as a quarterback. I know that Kyle Shanahan can basically make anyone
15:31great for fantasy football, right? I mean, that much we just know. Anyone that Kyle Shanahan wants to make great for fantasy football, he can. Mike Evans
15:39has been listed on the injury report with three different injuries, a quad, a thigh, and an abductor. I feel very sketchy about Mike Evans and his career
15:47low yards per route run, coming off a season ending injury, changing teams, starting his season with a 24-hour flight to Australia. Like things are not
15:56adding up for Mike Evans. George KD is coming off an Achilles. Christian McAffrey is entering into his age 30 season. Christian Kirk is on the injured
16:03reserve with a calf injury. Like it is all lining up. Oh, Ricky Pierce out for the year by the way. It is all lining up
16:09for Dean Stribbling to potentially lead the San Francisco 49ers in targets. I mean, think about that again. It's crazy. And it's definitely not that's
16:18not the modal outcome. That is not the thing that is most likely to happen. But with a bunch of 30-year-old guys ahead
16:23of him, I think he's got massive contingent value. I think he's got massive standalone value and he would be my pick. You know, we're so good at
16:30fantasy football now. Puka Nakua from his rookie season would have never been around 18 pick. Like we just are too plugged in. We have too much
16:38information. It just would have never happened. But if there is a puka this season in fantasy football, it is going to be Dehan Stribbling in terms of a
16:46complete rookie breakout who finishes as a top 12 wide receiver in fantasy football. So if you start with a running back heavy build, you can take Dean
16:54Stribbling, Xavier Worthy, Keenan Allen, Adnai Mitchell, Trey Harris, Pat Bryant, or Ted Hurst to sturdy up that room. If you want more fantasy football analysis,
17:03you want me to answer one of your trade questions, look over your team, do anything, you can head on over to
17:08blockfantasy.com, sign up over there, use code Davis, the season pass to get my rankings and a bunch of other useful fantasy football tools is only $34. Link
17:17to that is in the description and I will see you guys back
