One Thing I'm Watching for Every NFL Team in Week 1

Multiple outlets and Crack Rockck (who knows Woody Johnson and Jets ownership) have reported that Braelon Allen will be a very high-impact player for the Jets. He is expected to get high-value touches not just on goal-line situations but also on third downs, consistent with how he has been used in the past. This aligns with the NFL trend of using larger passing-down backs (235-240 lbs) who can keep the quarterback upright.

The source is very concerned that the Jets will try to 'keep Breece Hall safe' by giving him trap touches (touches between the 20s) rather than goal-line work, which Braelon Allen is expected to receive. Hall should remain involved on passing downs and in the passing game generally, but the source worries Allen will capture goal-line opportunities that would otherwise go to Hall.

The key question for Brian Robinson Jr. is whether he gets any goal-line work or if it's all Bejon, which will determine his red-zone touchdown upside.

Bucky Irving's fantasy value for the Buccaneers is uncertain; he had no touches inside the 5-yard line and is not traditionally a third-down back, but he does play on third downs with 4–5 receptions per game and could score goal-line touchdowns, making him a 2–3 round value play if he captures that role; however, he could also be a biggest faller if Kenneth Gainwell dominates high-value touches.

If Cincinnati plays more under-center as discussed this offseason, it would necessitate more 12 personnel and lead to more straight-up rushing attempts for Chase Brown, plus increased play-action opportunities that could boost explosive plays. The source notes reports suggest under-center usage hasn't gone well in training camp and preseason, but remains uncertain whether the Bengals will actually employ it in Week 1.

Chris Bell could have been a round-one NFL draft pick had he not torn his ACL at Louisville; he's been healthy enough to play and appeared in preseason. The source would love for him to lead the Miami Dolphins in targets in week one, indicating significant upside if he's healthy and gets the volume. However, he will split routes and snaps with Malik Washington and other Dolphins receivers (Caleb Douglas, Jaylen Tuller, Kevin Coleman Jr., Will Casser), creating a crowded target situation in Miami's offense.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. has a chance to lead the Jaguars backfield in touches and fantasy points in Week 1 over Toutton, who has been drafted 70–80 picks ahead of Rodriguez in the offseason. Rodriguez's best season came in 2021 at Kentucky under Liam Cohen, who is now the Jaguars head coach. Mattek acknowledges this is not a great chance but would feel 'very silly' about how much Toutton he has drafted if Rodriguez dominates.

Mattek Fantasy Football identifies the critical Week 1 question for Chuba Hubbard against the Bears: whether he is the starter or if the backfield is a true 50/50 split with Jonathan Brooks. High-value touches, targets, and goal-line work distribution will determine his fantasy ceiling. Brooks' injury status (not practicing with soreness) adds uncertainty to the split.

Cole Kmet's snap share in the Bears offense is a key variable; if he plays 72% of snaps in 12 personnel, it affects the target distribution for other receivers like Luther Burden and Roma Dunay.

Colston Loveland benefits if the Chicago Bears run high volumes of 12 personnel (two tight ends, one running back), as this formation keeps him on the field at 88% of snaps and increases his target opportunities. If the Bears run 38% of snaps out of 12 personnel, this is bullish for Loveland's snap share and target volume relative to spread formations that would feature slot receivers and wide receivers instead.

DJ Moore's average depth of target (ADoT) is volatile based on play-caller; when he previously played with Joe Brady, his ADoT was much higher and he did not have one of his better fantasy seasons. Moore has historically been better in fantasy when his ADoT is lower, but Brady did not use him that way. Mattek Fantasy Football expresses concern that Moore may be cast in a role he is not well-suited for, though he could be the Bills' best deep target given their weak receiver room.

Dalton Kincaid is noted as a below-the-line-of-scrimmage player in the Bills offense, similar to Shakir, contrasting with DJ Moore's potential deep-target role.

David Montgomery is priced at RB22 with an ADP of 50.7 overall, which Mattek Fantasy Football considers 'a little bit rich.' Montgomery is not expected to be an efficiency demon, and his value becomes severely diminished if backup Woody Marks takes early-down or goal-line work. Marks was essentially the worst interior runner in fantasy football last year, making this backfield split a key Week 1 monitoring point.

If Zachariah Branch runs only slot routes, Drake London will be able to run more of his routes from the outside, which should help his fantasy numbers while the team waits for Michael Penix Jr. to be healthy enough to play.

Mattek Fantasy Football characterizes George Helani as the most replacement-level running back, comparable to Travis Homer, Roshan Johnson, and Malik Davis. Helani is primarily out to pass block and eat snaps that Jarian Price cannot play. The source does not believe beat writer reports that Helani will play on all high-pressure situations.

JK Dobbins will not play passing downs for the Denver Broncos, limiting his fantasy upside and role definition in the backfield.

Mattek Fantasy Football identifies Jadarian Price as the Seahawks' workhorse back despite conflicting beat writer reports; the source does not believe George Helani will play on all high-pressure situations. If Price dominates high-value touches—all touches inside the five and inside the 10—his fantasy value will rise significantly in Week 1 against the Patriots. However, if he has no targets and loses goal-line work to Helani, his outlook dims considerably. The source will remain Bayesian and adjust based on Week 1 evidence.

Jaylen McMillan's fantasy value for the Buccaneers depends on route-split clarity with Ted Hurst; the source questions whether either player will play exclusively outside and who will earn more target volume if they both split routes as X or Z wide receiver, noting the offense could be good enough to support a third wide receiver.

Mattek Fantasy Football believes Jameson Williams has taken the next step as a player and will have a higher target share—'almost significantly so'—than Sam Laaporta in Week 1 and for the entirety of the 2025 season, despite Laaporta being fully healthy and returning from hip injury. Historically, Williams's best football came with Laaporta out and with Dan Campbell calling plays, but Campbell is no longer calling plays for the Lions. The source acknowledges uncertainty and will monitor closely.

Javante Williams has a perfect fantasy role for the Cowboys with a weak backup situation and no clear passing-down alternative, but the source emphasizes monitoring his efficiency (yards per carry, rushing yards over expectation) rather than usage; concern exists that if he resembles his 2024 self rather than improving, it could be problematic for a round-three draft pick. The key question is whether he will average 3.2 yards per carry or appear to be running in molasses.

Javvante Williams has a perfect fantasy role for the Cowboys with a weak backup situation and no clear passing-down alternative, but the source emphasizes monitoring his efficiency (yards per carry, rushing yards over expectation) rather than usage; concern exists that if he resembles his 2024 self rather than improving, it could be problematic for a round-three draft pick.

The source questions whether Jaden Reed will exceed 65% route share and play in 11 personnel for the Packers alongside Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. If Reed does play in 11 personnel, the source believes he should be ranked significantly higher for the rest of the season because he expects Jaden Reed to be the most efficient Green Bay Packers wide receiver.

Mattek Fantasy Football identifies the Rico Dao versus Jaylen Warren backfield split as potentially the biggest question of the fantasy football season. If Warren dominates in both targets and high-value touches, he could easily finish as a top-10 running back. Warren and Kenneth Gainwell both averaged over four targets per game in the Pittsburgh backfield last year; if the Dao-Warren split mirrors the Gainwell-Warren split, it will be roughly even, but a true time share probably favors Warren for the Steelers. There are many fantasy points available in the Pittsburgh Steelers backfield.

Jeremiah Love's draft capital should automatically guarantee him 20 touches per game, but the source is concerned about a potential 50-50 timeshare with Tyler Algier in the first couple weeks of the season. Both are returning from ankle injuries. If Arizona's first goal-line play is a rush to Algier, that signals reduced usage for Love. A 50-50 split would make Love a sell-low candidate in fantasy football.

Mattek Fantasy Football thinks Jerry Jeudy is absolutely cooked, though the source acknowledges Jeudy has a career pattern of smashing every other year. If this is an even year for Jeudy, the projection could be wrong, but the baseline expectation is to fade him.

Jody Fortson may not even play in Week 1 for the Chargers; he could be a healthy scratch, which would significantly impact the tight end snap and target distribution.

Jonah Coleman, a rookie for the Indianapolis Colts, has impressed Sean Payton with his pass protection in preseason; Payton said after three snaps in the first preseason game 'we've seen all we need.' If starter R.J. Harvey gets limited in Week 1, Coleman could be one of the best waiver-wire pickups of the week, suggesting significant upside if the starter role opens up.

Jonathan Brooks is not practicing and has been off to the side with soreness as of Monday, September 7th, though his wife confirmed on Twitter it is not knee soreness. Fantasy drafters have wish-casted Brooks up to the 67th turn despite his injury concerns and the fact that he has fallen in drafts. His status against the Bears in Week 1 is critical to determining the split with Chuba Hubbard.

Josh Downs has been a bit player for the Colts with only 10 games in his career where he achieved a route share above 70%; he averages over 10 PPR points per game in those high-volume games. However, the Colts' signing of Keenan Allen to a one-year $8 million deal threatens to depress Downs' target share and fantasy production similarly to how Allen historically 'mogged' Lad Manucci's targets per route run. The source expresses concern that Keenan will do the same to Downs, questioning whether Downs can exceed his career high of 8.5 aDOT.

Keaton Mitchell's role in the Chargers offense is uncertain; the question is whether he plays as a running back alongside Kamani Videll or if he's limited to a few snaps per game. He could be used as a pass-catching specialist, getting touches on all four snaps or receiving two rushes and one target in limited opportunities.

The Indianapolis Colts signed Keenan Allen to a one-year $8 million deal. His arrival is expected to impact the target distribution in the offense, potentially elevating his own fantasy value while reducing Josh Downs' targets per route run, similar to how Allen historically 'mogged' Lad Manucci's target share.

Kenneth Gainwell signed a nice free-agent contract with the Buccaneers and has been called the 1B in the Tampa Bay offense; Mattek Fantasy Football identifies him as one of the biggest risers in fantasy football. His upside depends on capturing high-value touches (targets and red-zone work) from Bucky Irving, though he could also be a biggest faller if he reverts to his Philadelphia Eagles form.

Kenneth Walker's fantasy value this offseason hinges on screen game usage. He averaged 4.6 targets per game in 2024; if he reaches that target share again, the source projects he will 'pretty easily finish frankly to me even as a top five running back in fantasy football.' This represents significant upside relative to typical RB2 expectations.

Kyler Murray's designed rushing is a league-winning question; rumor suggests Murray has sometimes resisted designed runs, preferring to drop back and execute reads. However, if Murray receives 11 total rushes with five scrambles and six designed runs, the source projects he should rank as a top 12 quarterback, noting he is a very good rushing quarterback who may trail league average in passing.

Luther Burden's target share is highly dependent on Bears personnel usage. If the Bears run 12 personnel (two tight ends, one running back) at 38% of snaps, Burden will lose 30–35 targets that would otherwise go to him, as those targets will instead be distributed to Khalif Raymond and Xavian Thomas. Conversely, if the Bears use more spread formations with fewer tight ends, Burden benefits with more volume. The source notes that ideally, if you're bullish on Burden, you want the Bears to play a ton of 12 personnel, but heavy 12 personnel usage is actually bearish for his target share and fantasy production.

The source identifies the Najee Harris versus Jaylen Warren backfield split as potentially the biggest question of the fantasy football season; if either back dominates in both targets and high-value touches, he could easily be a top-15 running back, as there are many fantasy points available in the Aaron Rodgers Pittsburgh Steelers backfield.

Omar Cooper Jr.'s fantasy value for the Jets hinges on route share clarity; the source identifies this as a key Week 1 monitoring point. The distinction between a 20% route share and a 60% route share would significantly impact his target volume and fantasy ceiling.

Rashad Bateman is the steady veteran wide receiver for the Ravens who has been there for a long time and got his contract extension. He's likely to be the wide receiver two in week one, though Jacobe Lane is having an exceptional training camp.

R.J. Harvey may still be in his 'designer boutique role' from Year 1, limiting his ceiling. If he gets limited in Week 1, his eighth-round draft pick will be a bad investment, suggesting the source has concerns about his role expansion and fantasy viability.

The source was probably too light on Romeo Dubs in fantasy football projections; if Dubs shares the field with two tight ends (Eli Raren in a Noah Gray or Austin Hooper-style role), his target share should be higher, which would make the source reconsider being too light on Dubs. The key Week 1 question is the Patriots' wide receiver three role and route share distribution among Dubs, Jamario Douglas, Kyle Williams, and Eli Raren.

Mattek Fantasy Football is monitoring Sam Laaporta's route share, target share, and average depth of target in Week 1 against Jameson Williams. Laaporta is fully healthy and recovered from his hip injury, expected to be a full go in Week 1. Historically, Jameson Williams's best football came with Laaporta out and with Dan Campbell calling plays, but Campbell is no longer calling plays for the Lions.

Ted Hurst is competing with Jaylen McMillan for outside routes and target volume for the Buccaneers; Mattek Fantasy Football expresses a personal preference for Hurst and will monitor the route-split competition closely, suggesting Hurst could be a beneficiary if the offense supports a third wide receiver.

Terrence Ferguson's average depth of target (aDOT) led all tight ends last year at 18.5 yards, with no other tight end higher than 10.5 yards. Mattek Fantasy Football is very interested in his week-one route share; if Ferguson gets a 75% route share, the source projects significant fantasy profit. The key variables are his route count, target volume, and whether he gets deep targets.

Will Dissly is expected to be the starter tight end for the Chargers, but the key question is what 'starter' means in terms of snap share—does it mean 42%, 62%, or 80% of snaps?—which will determine his fantasy ceiling.

Mattek Fantasy Football is monitoring whether Woody Marks has early-down work or is only a long-down-and-distance back; if Marks takes early-down or goal-line work from David Montgomery, Montgomery's value becomes severely diminished. The source notes that Marks was basically the worst interior runner in fantasy football last year.

Mattek Fantasy Football questions whether Xavier Hutchinson will actually play and expresses skepticism about his projected 65% route share, calling such a role 'a joke' and hoping it does not materialize.

The key question for Zachariah Branch is whether he runs any routes outside or if it's all slot stuff. If Branch is limited to slot routes, Drake London will be able to run more of his routes from the outside, which should help London's fantasy numbers.