0:00Justin Jefferson played the entire 2025
0:02season and finished as the wide receiver
0:0435, but he's being drafted as the wide
0:06receiver six in 2026 draft. One
0:08historical truism is that prior year
0:11fantasy points per game ends up being
0:13more predictive than average draft
0:15position. Now, fantasy managers make
0:16this mistake all the time. I include
0:18myself amongst that list of people who
0:20do make the mistake where we think that
0:22we know better than the results that
0:24we've already seen on the field. So,
0:25what we're going to do in this video is
0:27take a look at players that have a very
0:29large gap between their 2025 results and
0:31their 2026 average draft position. And
0:33when we get to the end, we are going to
0:35reach a verdict on Justin Jefferson. So,
0:37we begin with the guys who have the gap
0:39at wide receiver. Matthew Golden, Trey
0:40Harris, Luther Burden, the
0:42aforementioned Jefferson, Jayden Reed,
0:44Wicks, Jaylen Nailor, Jaylen Noel, Pat
0:46Bryant, Lad McConkey, and Josh Downs.
0:48Matthew Golden is in a much better
0:49situation this year than he was last
0:52season. The Green Bay Packers got rid of
0:54Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs. You
0:55guys know I am buying on Matthew Golden
0:58even at the wide receiver 47 price. Same
1:00deal with Trey Harris. His situation is
1:02marginally improved with Mike McDaniel,
1:04but I do think Trey Harris is actually a
1:06perfect example where the playing time
1:08is not that clean. The projection is not
1:10that clean. People really want to draft
1:12him. Perhaps the poster boy for this
1:14should have been Luther Burden and not
1:15Justin Jefferson. A player who has
1:17basically accomplished nothing in his
1:19NFL career outside of a 75-yard flea
1:21flicker touchdown and one good game
1:23against the 49ers defense. Now, of
1:25course, you guys know that I am buying
1:27on Luther Burden. I think that the
1:29situation for the Chicago Bears has
1:31improved enough that we should actually
1:33be in on Luther Burden. I think that he
1:34is Ben Johnson's Amon-Ra St. Brown this
1:36year, but there is no denying that the
1:38gap between what he has done on the NFL
1:41field and what we are projecting him to
1:43do in 2026 is absolutely massive. We'll
1:46get to Justin Jefferson at the end.
1:47Jayden Reed, here's an example of a guy
1:49I am not buying in fantasy football
1:51because I actually don't think the
1:52situation has changed for Jayden Reed
1:55nearly that much. He is still going to
1:57be an 11 personnel only wide receiver.
1:59In the preseason, it has been Matthew
2:01Golden and Christian Watson who have
2:03been on the field on first and second
2:04downs. When there's a second tight end,
2:06when there's a second running back on
2:07the field, Jayden Reed is still probably
2:09only going to run about 65% of the
2:11routes. I know this is a hot take.
2:14But for fantasy football this year, I do
2:16actually prefer Matthew Golden over
2:18Jayden Reed. Then we have a bunch of
2:19guys who are not drafted in your normal
2:21leagues. Dontayvion Wicks, Jaylen
2:22Nailor, Jaylen Noel, Pat Bryant. An
2:24interesting sleeper and I like I think a
2:26lot of people are looking at the Denver
2:27offense and they're saying Pat Bryant
2:29could be the guy who ends up taking over
2:31for Courtland Sutton. Interesting to see
2:33Lad McConkey on this list. This would
2:35been one that was a little bit
2:36surprising to me. I frankly thought he
2:38was a little bit better than the 36th
2:40best wide receiver in points per game
2:41last year. Actually very interesting
2:43that two Chargers receivers are on here.
2:45You guys can see that basically the
2:47market is totally buying into this idea
2:49that Mike McDaniel is going to
2:50completely revolutionize the Chargers
2:52offense. Frankly, the Chargers offense
2:54was so underwhelming last year that I
2:56find it hard for all these Chargers
2:58players, Hamden and Harris and Lad and
3:01the tight ends and Quentin Johnston,
3:03it's going to be hard for them all to
3:04pay off and I think frankly we might see
3:06the ball scattered and dispersed a
3:08little bit wider in the Chargers offense
3:10than the market is suggesting. And then
3:12my guy Josh Downs. I've talked about
3:13Downs a ton on this channel. I am a fan
3:15of his. I am buying on Josh Downs. We
3:17actually drafted Josh Downs on the
3:19Jinxed team in the Flock league. Again,
3:22I think situation and circumstance have
3:24changed for him. The quarterback play
3:26should be better this year. Michael
3:27Pittman Jr. is gone. Alec Pierce is
3:29injured. I don't think Jonathan Taylor
3:31is going to be averaging 24 fantasy
3:33points per game. But clearly you can see
3:35from this list, this is a very
3:37overvalued list of guys as a whole
3:39because they are being drafted so much
3:41higher than their fantasy points per
3:43game from last year. At running back and
3:45tight end, we have more fancy names.
3:47Bijan Robinson, Jayden Blue, and Kenneth
3:49Walker. Bigsby and Blue are handcuffs.
3:51You know, basically is Saquon Barkley
3:53going to get injured? Is Javonte
3:54Williams going to get injured? If not,
3:56these guys don't really matter.
3:58Byshell Tuton is the market is saying
4:01going to take over the Jacksonville
4:02Jaguars backfield with Travis Etienne
4:04gone. We will see how true that ends up
4:07being. I think that Byshell Tuton is the
4:08better running back than Chris Rodriguez
4:10Jr. So, I am buying him. And then the
4:12same deal with Kenneth Walker who
4:13finished as the running back 29 with
4:1610.9 points per game last year. Now,
4:19there were some adverse situations in
4:20there he had to deal with Zach
4:22Charbonnet. The team also was insanely
4:24efficient passing the ball so some of
4:26his touchdowns and pass catching got
4:28taken away. The market has pushed him
4:29all the way up to the seventh highest
4:31drafted running back in fantasy
4:32football. My guy Mason Dodd when he
4:34drafted him in the flock league was not
4:36happy to have to have taken Kenneth
4:38Walker and I told him that he was being
4:39absolutely silly. I told him he should
4:41have been happy to take Kenneth Walker,
4:42but because Mason knows this same
4:44research, he knows that guys who are
4:47being over drafted based on a change of
4:49situation that the market might be
4:50overrating are historically not great
4:53bets. So, you need to be very confident
4:54when you are making these bets. And then
4:56we have two guys at tight end. Isaiah
4:58Likely who I am not interested in
4:59drafting at all. The usage in the
5:01preseason has been very bearish for him.
5:03He has only played on obvious passing
5:05downs. He has not had a single snap
5:07where his hand has been in the dirt
5:08meaning he's not playing as an inline
5:09tight end at all. Now, of course you
5:11guys know I couldn't disagree any more
5:13about Terrance Ferguson. I think he is
5:14going to be basically the biggest
5:16breakout star at the tight end position
5:18in fantasy football, but there again,
5:20there is no denying that for all of
5:22these names we mentioned, the market is
5:24making huge bets and anticipating an
5:27improvement in performance that
5:29historically
5:30has just not been seen at all.
5:33Then on the other direction, it is the
5:34exact names that you guys anticipate. It
5:37is boring, old, dusty veterans. Juwan
5:40Jennings, Rondale Robinson, Deebo
5:42Samuel, Courtland Sutton, Michael
5:43Pittman Jr., Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs.
5:46All of players have been great for
5:47fantasy football. 11 points per game for
5:49Jennings. I mean, D'Onta Jennings was
5:51just a very good fantasy receiver. Am I
5:53interested in him in fantasy football
5:55this year? Not at all, because I think
5:57his circumstances have changed in a very
5:58negative way, where at best he is going
6:00to be the third wide receiver, and
6:02there's even been some reports he might
6:03be losing the wide receiver three job to
6:05Ty Felt. However, the next six guys,
6:08Wan'Dale, Deebo, Sutton, Pittman,
6:10Keenan, and Diggs, frankly to me,
6:12there's basically no argument that these
6:14guys are bad for fantasy. Wan'Dale is
6:16just going to simply do what he does,
6:18which is he's going to earn about six
6:19and a half targets per game. He is going
6:21to be a very dependable wide receiver
6:23three in fantasy football, even if
6:25you're not getting any ceiling. The same
6:26thing is true with Deebo, where he was
6:28actually much better than the market
6:30remembers for the Commanders last year,
6:3112.3 PPR points per game. He is now
6:35going back to where he became a star in
6:36the first place, the 49ers. The 49ers
6:39are dealing with a ton of injuries.
6:40Kittle is banged up, Mike Evans is
6:42banged up, Christian McCaffrey not
6:43practicing with tightness. Like, we'll
6:45see what happens in that offense, but I
6:47don't think there's any doubt that he is
6:49a good pick at, you know, pick 130, 140
6:52in your redraft league. I'm a little bit
6:54lower on Sutton personally, because I'm
6:55much higher on Jaylen Waddle, and Sutton
6:57is not going to lead the Denver Broncos
6:59in targets. But, the Denver Broncos
7:01actually led the NFL in pass attempts
7:03per game last year. Sutton has
7:05consistently been an above-average
7:07touchdown producer, which is so hard in
7:09the NFL today as passing touchdowns are
7:12down and rushing touchdowns are up.
7:14Michael Pittman Jr. leaves the
7:16Indianapolis Colts and goes to the
7:17Pittsburgh Steelers. The market is
7:19making the assumption that DK Metcalf is
7:21going to be better than Michael Pittman
7:22Jr. I don't think we can actually say
7:24that with a huge degree of confidence. I
7:26think that at this stage of their
7:27career, Michael Pittman Jr. is a better
7:29stylistic and average depth of target
7:32fit for what Aaron Rodgers wants to do.
7:34Same deal with Keenan Allen and Stefon
7:36Diggs. I, you know, I do like Josh
7:38Downs, but again, there is no denying
7:40that basically Keenan Allen is almost
7:43better at the thing that Josh Downs has
7:45already proved he could do at the NFL
7:46level. The bet with Josh Downs is that
7:48he is going to improve down the field.
7:51We will see if that ends up happening.
7:53Stefon Diggs slots in as the wide
7:54receiver two with the Commanders. He
7:55basically is like getting a free 800
7:57yards and five touchdowns in fantasy
7:59football. Charbonnet is discounted
8:01because of the injury and because of the
8:03addition of Kendre Miller. I actually
8:04don't think there is much signal there.
8:07The quick look into the methodology
8:08here. I got this idea from my friend
8:10Dwayne McFarland who wrote this great
8:12article over at fantasylife.com where he
8:15actually did the original research here
8:17and did find that prior year fantasy
8:20points per game is more predictive than
8:23ADP, which actually makes a ton of sense
8:25because if you look at the accumulation
8:28of the way fantasy drafts work, fantasy
8:30drafters are going to make a lot of
8:32incorrect assumptions. I mean, I just
8:34went through what, 20, 30 assumptions
8:35right there? And at least half of my
8:37assumptions are going to be wrong. So,
8:39it does make sense that one of the
8:40easiest exploits that you are going to
8:42find in fantasy football is looking at
8:44prior year points per game and saying,
8:46"Hey, who is being overvalued? Who is
8:48being undervalued? And why are they
8:50being overvalued? Why are they being
8:52undervalued?" And then point out where
8:54you disagree with the market. Jared
8:56Smola from Draft Sharks did the same
8:58analysis for running backs. Peter
8:59Overzet did a nice little write-up for
9:01this on Fantasy Life as well. Then, we
9:04have a small sample size question, which
9:06is where guys were injured. I think that
9:08Brock Purdy, George Kittle, and Cam
9:10Akers are all actually being punished
9:12far too much for their injury. Brock
9:14Purdy has been awesome in fantasy when
9:16he has been healthy. He was the
9:17quarterback two in points per game last
9:19year. Same deal for George Kittle coming
9:21back from the Achilles. I think that he
9:23probably should be going closer to where
9:25Tyler Warren is going or at least where
9:27Harold Landry and Kyle Pitts are going,
9:29but you're getting a discount there. Cam
9:31Akers, we will see what the Najee Harris
9:33signing does, but a running back who
9:35gets goal line work and a running back
9:37who also contributes in the passing game
9:40the same way that Cam Skyler who does
9:41probably shouldn't be available in the
9:43fifth round. Then we have Joe Burrow,
9:45Jayden Daniels, and Jayden Blue. I don't
9:46really care about Jayden Blue the four
9:48points per game. Like who cares? We know
9:50what we're getting from Joe Burrow. We
9:51know what we're getting from Jayden
9:52Daniels. Now, as I promised, we are
9:54going to close with Justin Jefferson and
9:57why he is the absolute exception.
10:01Justin Jefferson has been the most
10:03productive receiver in fantasy football
10:05except for Jamar Chase since he entered
10:07into the NFL. He scored only two
10:09receiving touchdowns in 2025, but he
10:11also had the absolute worst quarterback
10:13play imaginable. I think it's easy now
10:16to forget just how bad the quarterbacks
10:19were in Minnesota. He dealt with Max
10:21Brosmer. He dealt with J.J. McCarthy.
10:23And he also dealt with Carson Wentz. If
10:25we look over here at
10:26runningbacksdon'tmatter.com,
10:28you see that J.J. McCarthy was worse
10:30than Quinn Ewers in terms of EPA per
10:32play. That is what he is dealing with.
10:35He is dealing with a sample size of
10:36quarterbacks that basically only the
10:38Cleveland Browns could possibly match.
10:40And you might be saying, "Davis, you are
10:42so stupid. Don't you know that Kyler
10:44Murray is his quarterback? Don't you
10:45know that Kyler Murray is absolutely
10:46terrible? All Kyler wants to do, you
10:49know, Kyler, he just wants to play Call
10:51of Duty. What do we care about this
10:52guy?" To which I would say
10:54the reality basically doesn't add that
10:56up. If you extend the sample size all
10:57the way back to 2020, you basically get
10:59Kyler Murray looking like a league
11:01average quarterback in terms of EPA per
11:02play. The same EPA per play as Kirk
11:05Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, Jameis
11:08Winston, C.J. Stroud, better than Trevor
11:10Lawrence. Like, do I think that Kyler
11:12Murray's going to be awesome this year?
11:15No, I don't. But I do think the
11:16combination of having Kevin O'Connell as
11:18the play caller and having Kyler Murray
11:20as quarterback instead of J.J. McCarthy,
11:22Max Brosmer, Carson Wentz means that
11:24Justin Jefferson is a very valuable
11:27exception to this rule. And so I think
11:30that when you look at these correlations
11:31here, that the that receiving touchdown
11:34to points per game, the correlation is
11:35.74 per Dwayne McFarland, but the
11:38receiving touchdown to points per game
11:39next season correlation is only .33, and
11:42that there is basically no correlation
11:44in terms of receiving touchdown totals
11:47year to year means that we need to be
11:49buying in on Justin Jefferson. And by
11:51and large, when you look at this list
11:54and when you take it into your drafts,
11:55what I want you to be doing is if I am
11:57making a bet on someone like Matthew
11:59Golden or someone like Byshell Tuten,
12:02why am I making the bet? Why is the
12:04market pricing this incorrectly? Or on
12:06the converse, someone like Stefon Diggs,
12:08Keenan Allen, Deebo Samuel. If this
12:10player is available cheaply, why are
12:12they available cheaply? And should I
12:14think that I am smarter than the market
12:16as it pertains there?
12:17So, make sure that you like this video.
12:19Make sure you were subscribed to the
12:20Davis Mattek Fantasy Football channel
12:22for more exhaustive fantasy football
12:25analysis. Shout out to Dwayne McFarland
12:26for the statistical research here, and
12:29make sure that you're checking out all
12:30of my content over on flockfantasy.com.
12:33If you want my rankings, if you want
12:34anything to help your fantasy football
12:36team this year, you can head on over to
12:38flockfantasy.com. Use code Davis to sign
12:41up over there. The season pass only $34.
12:43We will get you right to win your
12:45fantasy football league.
