6 Fantasy Football Players High-Stakes Drafters LOVE That Home Leagues HATE
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
36 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 9, 2026
Published
Sun, August 9, 2026
28
Player insights
25
Players mentioned
Topics
J.K. DobbinsKenneth GainwellRJ HarveyAudric EstimeBrock BowersBucky IrvingChristian WatsonJameson WilliamsJayden HigginsJayden ReedJonah ColemanJordan MasonLadd McConkeyMark Ingram
Player analysis
Player insights
Audric Estime
PositiveBreakout23:07
Ian Hartitz highlights Audric Estime's receiving upside and year-two potential, noting he produced 900 yards and 12 touchdowns as a rookie and was trusted by Sean Payton in the playoffs.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveProjection14:59
Ian Hartitz projects Brock Bowers to be a high-volume target earner for the Chargers, favoring him over other options like Joshua Palmer to lead the team in production.
Insight pageBucky Irving
NegativeBust55:47
Ian Hartitz lists Bucky Irving as a fade, citing concerns that he is primarily a between-the-20s back and that the presence of Sean Tucker limits his goal-line work and overall handcuff upside.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveValue0:44
Ian Hartitz identifies Christian Watson as a priority target, citing a massive ADP discrepancy where he is drafted as WR25-26 in high-stakes leagues but falls outside the top 100 on ESPN. Hartitz argues this is an egregious oversight given Watson's efficiency, noting he ranked 4th in yards per route run last season and averaged 13 PPR points per game (WR19 status) including playoffs, despite injury and inconsistent quarterback play. Hartitz ranks him as his WR25 (pick 54) and notes that training camp trends are entirely in his favor.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
PositiveUsage23:11
Ian Hartitz identifies JK Dobbins as the primary back in Denver when healthy, noting he out-touched RJ Harvey 164 to 75 in the first 10 weeks of the season. Despite facing a high rate of stacked boxes (8+ defenders)—ranking among the top six RBs in that metric last year—Dobbins maintained a 5.0 yards per carry average, proving his efficiency and volume superiority over the rest of the backfield.
Insight pagePositiveUsage25:40
Ian Hartitz notes that J.K. Dobbins faces a high rate of stacked boxes (8+ defenders), ranking among the top six running backs in that metric last year. Despite the defensive attention, Dobbins maintained a 5.0 yards per carry average and is objectively superior to R.J. Harvey in performance against those fronts, with the volume firmly in his favor.
Insight pageJameson Williams
PositiveUsage16:56
Ian Hartitz notes that Jameson Williams has 16 drops on 235 targets over the last three years, but argues that his ability to make big plays outweighs the drop issues, as drops are a common side effect for high-target receivers.
Insight pageJayden Higgins
PositiveSleeper19:51
Ian Hartitz recommends Jayden Higgins as a late-round target (rounds 10+), projecting him to be a primary outside receiver alongside Nico Collins, noting his 6'4" frame and ability to run routes and make contested catches. Hartitz identifies him as a clear-cut number two wide receiver in the Texans' offense who could benefit from a step forward by CJ Stroud.
Insight pageJayden Reed
PositiveValue4:57
Ian Hartitz identifies Jayden Reed as a strong target in fantasy drafts, noting that his current draft position offers significant value, especially as he competes for snaps in two-wide receiver formations.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
PositiveBreakout26:52
Ian Hartitz identifies Jonah Coleman as a significant threat to the Denver backfield hierarchy. Coleman ranked first in a proprietary 'little things' metric (pass blocking, drop rate, fumble rate) during the pre-draft process. As a 220-pound back capable of both short-yardage work and pass catching, he is expected to be a disruptive force in the rotation.
Insight pageJordan Mason
PositiveBreakout56:49
Ian Hartitz identifies Jordan Mason as a preferred target in the RB30 range due to his potential to earn a starting role, favoring him over committee-based backs.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
PositiveValue34:29
Ian Hartitz ranks Kenny Gainwell as his RB37 (ADP 108), noting that he fits the archetype of a pass-down back that rarely busts in full PPR formats. High-stakes drafters are targeting him significantly higher (RB32-RB34) than his Yahoo/ESPN ADP, reflecting the professional consensus that he is a valuable PPR-friendly asset.
Insight pagePositiveValue52:08
Ian Hartitz highlights Kenneth Gainwell as a target in full PPR formats, noting high-stakes drafters are taking him around RB32-RB34, significantly higher than his Yahoo/ESPN ADP.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveUsage14:20
Ian Hartitz expects Ladd McConkey to be one of the top three targets in the Chargers' offense, noting that the departure of Keenan Allen creates a significant opportunity for him. Hartitz explicitly states that McConkey is a better player than Quentin Johnston.
Insight pageMark Ingram
PositiveProjection50:15
Ian Hartitz highlights Mark Ingram's successful tenure as a running back in Sean Payton's offensive system.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
PositiveValue4:57
Ian Hartitz suggests drafting Matthew Golden later in drafts, expressing optimism that he will show improvement over his rookie performance within the Packers' high-functioning passing offense.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout12:56
Ian Hartitz identifies Parker Washington as a prime breakout candidate and a 'big-time discount' compared to Quentin Johnston. Washington posted an elite 27% target share and 19.1 PPR points per game during a five-game stretch last season. Hartitz emphasizes his chemistry with Trevor Lawrence, route-running polish, and competitive nature, comparing him to 'this generation's Miles Austin.' He is actively targeting Washington in drafts as a borderline WR3 who could potentially outscore Quentin Johnston.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveValue11:34
Ian Hartitz is bullish on Puka Nacua, consistently bumping him up his rankings to WR26. While ADP varies significantly between FFPC (WR31) and platforms like ESPN (WR37), Hartitz views him as a target and is moving him ahead of other high-profile receivers.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveValue12:42
Ian Hartitz identifies Quentin Johnston as a strong value pick at his current WR40-50 ADP, noting he finished as WR23 last year, the team lost their top target, and he is playing in a Mike McDaniel-led offense with no meaningful target competition added. Hartitz argues the market is unfairly holding onto a 'rookie year butterfingers' narrative, noting his drop rate (11 drops on 242 targets) is comparable to other high-profile receivers like Malik Nabers, Rashee Rice, and Rome Odunze.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeUsage16:56
Rashee Rice is noted for having 10 drops on 209 targets, mentioned in the context of drop statistics across the league.
Insight pageReggie Bush
PositiveProjection50:20
Ian Hartitz defends Reggie Bush's early career production, noting he achieved three consecutive top-10 PPR finishes to start his career with the Saints.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
NegativeValue22:30
Ian Hartitz has been fading RJ Harvey, noting that he requires a JK Dobbins injury to be viable, as Dobbins dominated the touch share (164 to 75) during the first 10 weeks of the season.
Insight pageNegativeRole25:47
Ian Hartitz is fading R.J. Harvey, noting that he is no longer a simple 'one injury away' handcuff to JK Dobbins due to the emergence of Jonah Coleman. Hartitz suggests Harvey may now require two injuries to reach RB1 status, as the Denver backfield trends toward a three-man committee. Additionally, Hartitz views his current top-90 ADP as too steep for a mid-tier RB3.
Insight pageSean Tucker
NegativeRole56:50
Ian Hartitz identifies Sean Tucker as the likely goal-line back for the Buccaneers, noting that his presence limits the handcuff upside of both Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell.
Insight pageTank Dell
NegativeRole22:02
Ian Hartitz questions whether Tank Dell can return to his previous form following a severe injury, though acknowledges he is a candidate for the WR3 role in Houston.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
NegativeProjection13:19
Ian Hartitz expresses skepticism regarding Travis Etienne's fantasy impact, suggesting he will not be a major factor in the offense. Hartitz notes that Etienne is playing more on the outside than expected, with an estimated 50-60% route rate based on limited training camp samples.
Insight pageTrey Sermon
PositiveSleeper15:06
Ian Hartitz targets Trey Sermon as a late-round sleeper (rounds 10+) who offers high-upside as a handcuff. He cites Mike McDaniel's praise of Sermon as a 'big-time mismatch player' and notes his strong underlying metrics from his time at Ole Miss.
Insight pageWoody Marks
NegativeValue29:26
Ian Hartitz questions whether Woody Marks offers a similar late-round handcuff profile to R.J. Harvey, suggesting that drafters might be better off targeting cheaper alternatives later in the draft rather than investing in the Denver backfield committee.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Today, I'm breaking down six players who are far cheaper in traditional home leagues like ESPN and Yahoo compared to high-stakes leagues like FFPC and NFFC.
0:09So, no, guys, I'm not saying the pros are always going to be smarter than the Joes with everything, but particularly right now in early August, these alleged
0:17pros have been certainly drafting more often for a lot of money. So, I do think it's worthwhile look at some of the
0:23bigger discrepancies in early to mid-round players and try to see if there might actually be something to be said about taking these guys where
0:30they're going at in home leagues. So, couple players in here, too, who personally I haven't even been drafting that much and it has changed my opinion
0:37at least a little bit to, again, see them going so much earlier in high-stakes formats. So, with that, let's get things started with Packers
0:44wide receiver one, probably, Christian Watson, okay? You look at FFPC and NFFC, he's going as the wide receiver 25 and 26. Really big difference, though,
0:54compared to ESPN and Yahoo when you look at the overall pick positions, pick 56 overall again in our high-stakes leagues, going pick 70 on Yahoo and pick
1:02100 over on ESPN. So, I get it, the ADPs for home sites should and will get better as August goes on as more people
1:11are playing and everything. You can't just be a complete slave to ADP for lack of a better word, but the same time,
1:18guys, you know how it goes with some casual players, all right? They don't scroll down a bunch. They don't have the
1:23best preparation in the world, and the fact that Christian Watson on average is going outside the top 100 players on ESPN really is wild to me, okay? So, we
1:32are talking about a guy who last season, even coming back from the ACL, yes, half a season, but wide receiver four in
1:39yards per route run. Yards per route run is a great stat cuz it gives us our largest sample, okay? Yards per
1:45catch, yards per target, what we're trying to do. Yards, how many yards are you gaining on your opportunities? Routes, that's the
1:52largest sample size we have to pick from for a wide receiver, and he was the fourth best freaking one in the NFL and
1:57it's so you look at the fancy points, including the playoffs, which I don't think is egregious to do.
2:03They balled out in the most important games. Not like I'm including preseason or something like that. Including the playoffs, Christian Watson averaged 13
2:09PPR points per game, which would have been good for wide receiver 19 status.
2:14And that's even despite a lot of times during the second half of the season, the last three or four weeks at least,
2:19catching passes from Malik Willis, who yeah, did a good job. I'm not trying to say Willis is a scrub. His passing
2:25numbers are actually freaking phenomenal, but regardless, coming back from the injury, doing a lot of this, you know, in freaking Lambeau in
2:32December, not exactly pristine passing conditions, with his court starting quarterback in and out of the lineup, and it still didn't matter. Watson was
2:39putting up upside wide receiver two numbers and operating with elite wide receiver one-worthy efficiency. So, accordingly, he got that four-year $92
2:48million extension. We're still talking about a guy who's only 27 years young.
2:52No Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, which for what reason, we talk about being more so this great reason to be drafting Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden
3:00a little bit later in drafts, but I'd also say removing Doubs, who, reminder, Jordan Love once upon a time said if he
3:06had to trust someone with his wedding ring, it would have been Romeo Doubs.
3:09Love Romeo just made too much sense, but he's out of the picture. Dontayvion Wicks is out of the picture.
3:16Based on what we've seen from these guys, Christian Watson has been the best wide receiver of the group, and just he
3:22for sure projects to be the guy who's going to be on the field most often. Cuz that is the thing. Should be getting
3:27Packers Family Night snap counts here soon enough. Hilarious tradition in August, where again, they run I mean, maybe 20 plays of their first team
3:34offense in front of fans. It is Family Night, and we actually get, you know, some fancy nerds, and I appreciate those
3:39fancy nerds to tell us who was out there, you know, in two wide receiver formations and all that. So, we're hopeful Jayden Reed can get some more of
3:45those. We're hopeful that Matthew Golden's going to be a hell of a lot better than he was as a rookie.
3:50Christian Watson just so easily seems like the biggest sure thing in a passing game that we should love, guys.
3:56Because Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur together, it's been harmony.
4:01Jordan Love among 42 qualified quarterbacks since he took over in 2023, he's third in EPA per dropback, he's 11th in success rate, eighth in yards
4:09per attempt, 12th in passer rating, fifth in PFF pass grade if you're into that kind of thing.
4:14Jordan Love's a damn good quarterback.
4:16I think sometimes his reputation gets damaged because he doesn't throw many picks, but the ones he does tend to be the cringe-worthy
4:24variety.
4:25We all remember that one play where he threw it into the end zone against the Panthers. He honestly gets unfairly criticized for that play. It was fourth
4:32down, he avoids a set a couple sacks, like he gets outside the pocket, and he's about to go out of bounds. Like you
4:37just have to throw the ball up. You can't pull a Derek Carr and throw the ball out of bounds on fourth down. Think
4:42about the freaking reaction to that.
4:44Why did it look so bad when it the Panther dude dropped it? Cuz his receiver, I think it was Dobbs, had
4:50gone out of bounds, so they weren't eligible to actually catch the ball.
4:52Probably should have gone back in bounds and at least try to knock it down anyway. So, regardless, Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur, it's been a
4:58really efficient passing game. The last point here that could help, really wild and great stat from my guy Rich Reebar, he's been on the channel
5:05before. Make sure you guys go follow all of his work over with a Warren Sharp Sharp Analytics. Rich Reebar though said
5:11the 2025 Packers averaged just 8.9 possessions per game, not including kneel downs. I know it's just a random number, but that's the lowest number of
5:20possessions per game going back to at least 1999, guys. Last season, the Packers had 31 fewer possessions than the Detroit Lions across the entire
5:29year.
5:30Like that's insane.
5:32That's three games worth, basically, of possessions that the Lions have more so than the Packers. So, the reason why I bring that up though is cuz apparently
5:39LaFleur and apparently in training camp there's been a much bigger a just effort and overall, you know, just mindfulness, I should say, of them getting out of the
5:46huddle quicker, of them getting in the line quicker, which should mean more connection wide receiver room and an offense that I don't know, you're
5:53throwing running backs in legal problems and already dealing with a groin injury.
5:56I think it makes sense that they pass the ball a little bit more and they want to speed it up. Everything is going in
6:01Christian Watson's favor.
6:04I love him, guys.
6:06Personally and in fantasy football. I love Christian Watson. But yeah, again, I'm pretty much in line here. I do have him as my wide receiver 25, pick 54. So,
6:14I'm actually even slightly higher than the pros over the Joes on this one.
6:17Christian Watson priority pick right now with where he is going in home league drafts. By the way, guys, I mentioned my
6:23ranks. You can get all my ranks, all my written content and so many freaking sweet tools over rotowire.com and I do
6:29have code Ian 20 for you. If you want to support me, if you want to support the company, if you want to support your
6:34freaking self, man, in that effort to get bragging rights and championship glory over friends, family, strangers alike. So, again, so so excited for this
6:42fantasy football season. Going to be with you guys every step of the way. If you do want some next level and just,
6:47you know, again, that extra little push to help you guys hopefully get that championship glory, code Ian 20 rotowire.com. Check out the subs.
6:54Appreciate you. Next up, we got training camp legend, future training camp Hall of Famer, Puka Nacua, guys.
7:01This is one of these things where FFPC wide receiver 31, but then he's going wide receiver 36 on the NFC, 36 and 37
7:09on Yahoo and ESPN. So, positionally wise, we're not seeing Puka Nacua necessarily going super earlier.
7:16You know, in pros leagues versus Joes leagues, but man, overall, big time difference. Pick 65 and pick 78 for Puka Nacua in the FFPC and NFC
7:26streets. Yahoo pick 93 and ESPN pick 103.
7:32I'm in on Puka Nacua, guys. I'm moving him up to wide receiver 32, I think on Friday or Saturday, and I just keep on
7:39bumping him, man. I'm at wide receiver 26 now, right behind Christian Watson who we just got done talking about. Some of this information we got from training
7:46camp has just been awesome here. And by the way, I will be having John Shipley, the Ace Jaguars beat reporter, on this
7:52very channel on Monday. So, make sure you guys check that out. Trying to cut out the middle man and get some of these
7:56beat reporters to give us the intel ourselves. So, keep an eye for that.
7:59But, what I've already heard from John on the Twitter streets and his own great work over at SI, Travis Etienne is playing more on the
8:06outside. He's playing a little bit more than people expected.
8:1050-60% route rate, something like that, with the best you know we can estimate in kind of these limited training camp samples.
8:17It sounds like Parker is going to get every chance just to be the slot receiver and the main option on the
8:22inside in this offense, which is very exciting cuz that's the role he had down the stretch of last season when he was
8:28easily the most productive member here.
8:31Five-game stretch at the end of last season. Healthy BTJ, Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Parker Washington.
8:36No Travis Etienne, but again, we already kind of explained why we think Travis Etienne will not be making a big impact
8:42to Washington's route rates. In that five-game stretch, guys, for a team making the playoffs and having a hell of a second half run, man. Easy schedule, I
8:52get it, but they have one tough test in Denver and boy did they clear that.
8:55In those five games, Parker Washington elite 27% target share and 19.1 PPR points per game.
9:03I was at the gym last week doing my incline treadmill BS and they had the Bills-Jaguars wild card game on in
9:10there.
9:11Obviously, I watched it when it happened, but just seeing it again and just seeing the safety valve that Parker is for Trevor Lawrence and knowing this
9:18entire offense, he's just almost an extension of the run game with the way they can just pop screens out there. And then he'll also
9:25work down field and then he'll all of a sudden, oh, he's beating Christian freaking Benford for a touchdown. You watch the rest of the season. Oh, there
9:31he is, you know, getting Derek Stingley on his heels out of the slot. This dude is freaking as competitive as they come
9:37cuz he freaking has a chip on his shoulder, cuz he came out as a sixth-round pick who had to be a return
9:42specialist, but he's built like a running back.
9:45He's got some polish in terms of his route-running ability. We've seen that.
9:49And just for whatever reason, he seems to be the only receiver that we have ever seen Trevor Lawrence just have this
9:55level of chemistry with.
9:57I'm not even trying to hate on Trevor Lawrence.
10:00If you're a Trevor Lawrence stan, if you're a Jaguars fan, first of all, thanks for listening, guys. I appreciate it. But
10:05you've seen it over the years. Jaguars lead the league in drops since T-Law got there.
10:12And I do think there's something to the idea that some quarterbacks throw a more droppable ball than others, looking at you, J.J. McCarthy.
10:21But whether it's Calvin Ridley, whether it's Zay Jones, BTJ, cuz remember, BTJ only really got going with Mac Jones in the second half of his rookie year.
10:29Zay Jones did good.
10:31Christian Kirk was okay. He was probably the other best guy before we kind of got to this Parker stretch.
10:36I just feel like when we've had five, six years now of Trevor Lawrence, and then we easily see him all of a sudden
10:43find a guy that he can really connect with in the best stretch of T-Law's career, in a competitive second half stretch, too.
10:51I am buying into that. I've also run these numbers. I did it more so for Michael Wilson, but it does apply here
10:55for Parker Washington.
10:57I looked at second half breakouts over the years. Guys who basically average eight additional PPR points per game in the second half of the season compared
11:04to the first half of the season. And they had to play at least, I think I did three or four games in each stretch, so
11:09it wasn't a situation where like they just didn't play in the first half, all right?
11:12Almost all of the bad team breakouts were of the Jerry Jeudy variety, which pains me to say, cuz I've kind of been a
11:20Jeudy defender, but I'm not loving my Michael Wilson for that. I think it was eight or nine of these 20 instances of the last over the last
11:28decade, eight or nine of them came on bad, dead-in-the-water teams. Guys like Michael Wilson going off. The only one that truly boomed the rest of his career
11:37was Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Parker Washingtons of the world, much, much better guys. These dudes who were doing it on winning teams, or at least teams
11:44that weren't looking at their season being over. Teams that weren't, you know, benching a dude with a kind of bruised up ankle because, you know, hey,
11:53we'll take the better draft pick anyway.
11:55I believe in Parker Washington, guys.
11:57You know what? You know who else believes in Parker Washington?
11:59One of my freaking favorite people in Send Street, Matt Waldman. I just respect the hell out of Matt Waldman ranking guys where he wants to rank
12:06them. He said he's been doing this long enough, he's not scared.
12:09He wants you to know who he's high on.
12:11He's got Parker Washington wide receiver 14, so you do not need to draft Parker Washington as your wide receiver 14.
12:18But where he's going, guys, as a borderline wide receiver three, sign me the hell up for that. This generation's Miles Austin.
12:27Love me some Parker Washington, man.
12:28What's really the difference between Parker Washington and Quentin Johnston?
12:32We have a small sample size of high-end success in an offense with a quarterback we love, with a play caller we love, going
12:39in their second year together.
12:42We're a little more confident in Quentin Johnston having the full-time role, I guess, but I don't know, man.
12:47Are BTJ, Jakobi Meyers, and Travis Hunter, like is that scarier target competition than Quentin Johnston and Colson Loveland? I don't I don't really
12:55think so.
12:56Throw in there. I'm not trying to hate on Brenton Strange, but Parker Washington feels like a big-time discount on Quentin Johnston. I wouldn't
13:05I'm not There's been some recent trend of people just trying to say, I guess, all these I'm probably on Twitter too
13:09much, but people trying to say all these different wide receivers could outscore Quentin Johnston. I would not be surprised if Parker Washington outscores
13:16Quentin Johnston and a hell of a lot of other wide receivers, man. Great, great receiver. I'm with the pros on this one.
13:22Next up, Quentin Johnston.
13:24This is one where actually seeing again a pretty big gap between the ESPN streets and the pros, but then also the
13:29overall picks as well seem to be too steep. So, going wide receiver 40 and 39 on FFPC and NFFC, wide receiver 51 on
13:38ESPN. We're seeing him go outside of the top 110 picks on Yahoo. He's going pick 90 in the high stakes street again.
13:45Awesome article on ESPN recently. Ben Solak, Graziano, and Jeremy Fowler, they basically been going training camp by training camp. They're talking about a
13:52big storyline, then they go through some fancy relevant numbers. It's always appreciated when these again more pure real football NFL reporters still look
13:59out for us fancy nerds and virgins out here. So, the big thing I saw though from the Chargers, they said don't expect them to do what
14:05they did last year, which was bring in a veteran at the end, all right? Doesn't sound like Keenan Allen's going to be
14:10walking through those doors, which is great news for these dudes, man.
14:14Keenan Allen led the freaking 2025 Chargers in targets, which still blows my mind. Again, we were all there. I know Ladd McConkey disappointed. I know
14:20QJ after a hot start relatively cooled off down the stretch, but I knew Keenan was a nuisance. I just I guess never fully realized this man is
14:30actively number one wide receiver in Los Angeles. So, Ladd missed a game, but Keenan still had him cleared even with that. So,
14:37it's Ladd, it's Quenton Johnston, it's Trey Harris.
14:41It's going to be three tight ends that more and more sound like Gerald Everett and Donald Parham isn't even necessarily going to be the one. I think Charlie
14:46Kolar is going to play more than any of these guys. David Njoku is there as well.
14:50I just wouldn't say there's like a giant issue in the tight end room. I am expecting these three wide receivers to
14:57be the top three in terms of targets.
14:59And Ladd McConkey, you want to say it's Joshua Palmer and give a great case for it. I think it's going to be Brock
15:03Bowers though. How productive is that?
15:06Trey Sermon, man. He is one of those generally rounds 10 plus in my drafts. I want to be taking almost all running
15:13backs. All else equal, give me the handcuffs, give me the guys one injury away being on the cover of the waiver
15:18wire and you're forcing them in your lineup.
15:21Trey Sermon though, year two, heard Mike McDaniel say dude could be a big-time mismatch player out there.
15:28Liked some of the underlying stuff coming out of Old Miss, was on freaking fire before he got injured in his last
15:32year there.
15:34Trey Herndon is one of those guys where we could look up feasibly and say, "Oh, you know what?
15:39It's a little bit tighter between him and Ladd McConkey than we thought." But speaking of QJ, are we underestimating the guy who, oh yeah, led this team, led
15:46this offense in PPR points per game last year? That was Quentin Johnston.
15:51And everyone says, "Oh, well, Ladd McConkey, you know, he had Keenan Allen there, and well, look, the offensive line got injured, so then Justin Herbert
15:58couldn't be thrown the ball to him as much."
16:00Do those things not also apply to Quentin Johnston, guys?
16:03I think that losing Keenan is better for Ladd than QJ because of the way they work and the players there. I think Ladd
16:09McConkey is better than Quentin Johnston. It's not about that.
16:13It is about the fact that we still seem to hold a bad case of rookie year butterfingers against Quentin Johnston three years
16:20later, man, and we just don't even bring it up for guys who have the same problem out here.
16:25I wouldn't say Quentin Johnston has the best hands in the league. I wouldn't say he's even close to having the best hands
16:29in the league.
16:30It's not like he is so markedly worse at catching the football, though, that we should just be fading him.
16:36He has 11 drops in 242 career targets.
16:41Ladd has nine in 218.
16:43Rome Odunze has nine in 191.
16:46Again, QJ 11 drops on 242 targets. Malik Nabers has 10 in 205.
16:51Rashee Rice has 10 in 209.
16:54Jameson Williams has 16 drops on 235 targets. Last three years.
17:00Jameson Williams has dropped five more passes than Quentin Johnston on seven fewer targets, and you never hear a peep about it. You know why? Cuz Jameson
17:07Williams is freaking awesome.
17:09He makes big plays, so you can live with him dropping the ball every now and again. Look at any drop leaderboard, and
17:15you're going to see a lot of really freaking good receivers, man.
17:18Cuz unfortunately, drops are a bad side effect of being someone who earns a lot of freaking targets in the first place. So,
17:25I mentioned the Mike McDaniel Trey Harris comp before. Mike McDaniel was someone who does like to say very, very encouraging things about his players.
17:33He said that QJ reminds him of Andre Johnson and Julio Jones, man. He has coached those players during the course of his career. I'm It's not a bad thing,
17:41all right?
17:42No, QJ is not Andre Johnson. No, QJ is not Julio Jones.
17:46But if the play calling reminds him of them in an offense that isn't exactly overloaded with high-end target competition, I think that's the one. But if the
17:55Chargers are anywhere near as good as I think they could be and then apparently as good as the, you know, pros think
18:00they could be as well, I think they could enable more than one high-end pass catcher. We see about four offenses per year have top 20 have
18:08multiple top 24 wide receivers in PPR points per game, and QJ just did it last season. I know we're playing for 2026,
18:16but if you just had to explain to someone who's not really all that familiar with fantasy football, if they came up to you and they're like, "All
18:22right, I see this Quentin Johnston guy finished wide receiver 23 last year. The Chargers got rid of their number one target.
18:30They brought in what is widely believed to be one of the best offensive minds in the league in Mike McDaniel. They didn't
18:37add any other meaningful wide receiver competition. I don't think Quentin Johnston, all due respect to 2025 SEC receiving yard leader Quentin Johnston,
18:45but you know, he's going to be a gadget wide receiver four type guy. No meaningful starting wide receiver competition added. We got the healthier
18:53offensive line. How come the reigning wide receiver 23 is going as a wide receiver 40 now? Wide receiver 50 on ESPN. It just doesn't make sense, guys.
19:02So, and you can look around those ranges and there's Jayden Reed, there's Josh Downs, there's there's plenty of good receivers and everything, but man,
19:09QJ is my wide receiver 33. I got him higher even overall than some of the pros here. Again, I'm all in on the
19:15Chargers.
19:16I think McDaniels is going to do a much better job again the ball to QJ in yards after the catch situations which was his
19:21calling card coming out of TCU in the first place.
19:24And just a bet on the number two wide receiver in the Chargers offense doing big things. Where I go wrong is if Trey
19:31Harris just completely snatches QJ's chain or if the injury gods just do their yearly thing they say FU to every single
19:38charger out there. So, as things stand right now though, I think QJ is a great fantastic buy at this wide receiver
19:46480P. Last wide receiver I want to hype up here just a little bit. Another one of these later round guys where again if
19:52you do find yourself in rounds 10 plus and you still need someone, I do think Jayden Higgins makes quite a bit of
19:57sense guys. Wide receiver 52 and 49 on FFPC and NFFC. Wide receiver 66 on Yahoo and 56 on ESPN. Honestly, kind of a
20:07shame that he's forced to share the same offense with Nico Collins. I think there's a lot of similarities between how these two 6'4 dudes play. So,
20:14refreshing in the era of all these, you know, Mickey Mouse tiny freaking slot wide receivers to see someone like Jayden Higgins be 6'4 and still capable of
20:23sinking those hips and running some good routes out there. So, made some nice plays last last year also in the contested catch area.
20:29We have Tank Dell coming back, but at least from my read on it guys, it does seem like Tank Dell and John Metchie are
20:33more so competing for that number three spot. I do think the primary outside wide receivers are going to be Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins. So, I
20:41remember the playoffs with CJ Stroud.
20:43They were horrible. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.
20:47The season as a whole though was better than 2024. Quite a bit better than 2024. Even some stats was were better in 2023 when we really saw CJ
20:56Stroud and company cooking and turning in one of the better rookie seasons we've seen from a rookie QB in quite some time. So, yes, I would like to see
21:04more consistency from CJ Stroud, but you know, So as with four guys, CJ Stroud is 24 years old still, all right? Turns 25
21:13in October. Same thing with Caleb Williams. Show a little bit of patience for the quarterbacks that come out into the league at 22 years old, man. 21
21:21years old, however old they were.
21:23Not everyone gets to be Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels with 50 career starts under their belt coming out. It does make sense that there's some growing
21:29pains for these guys that still literally need to grow up because of how young they are when they're actually being a starting quarterback in the NFL.
21:36So Jayden Higgins This is the one wide receiver where I'm just kind of in line with it on. Again, I like Christian Watson, Quentin
21:43Johnston.
21:45Parker Washington, those are guys that I'm more so actively targeting, particularly Watson and Washington.
21:51Jayden Higgins though really is a nice bet at the end of the draft cuz if CJ Stroud can get anywhere close to doing
21:56what he was doing in 2023 or even just do a pretty good 2025 impression, it would make sense if we can get at least,
22:02you know, an upside wide receiver three in addition to Nico Collins. Could that be Tank Dell? Yes.
22:08Does this seem like a little bit wishful thinking that he's going to be anywhere near the same player coming back from
22:12one of the most horrific injuries we've seen? Probably also yes. I'd love to be wrong. What a great story, Tank Dell
22:18even being back in the first place.
22:20That's awesome, but Jayden Higgins really does profile as a pretty clear-cut number two wide receiver in this offense. And hey, if we do think
22:26Stroud and Collins are going to take a step forward, it makes sense if Higgins going to be along for the ride. All
22:30right, guys, two running backs here that again the pros seem to be a little bit higher on than Joe's right now. Broncos
22:36RB RJ Harvey. Honestly, someone I've been fading a little bit, but this is making me think twice about it, okay? He
22:41is going as the RB 34, pick 90 in the FFPC streets, RB 29, pick 78 in the NFFC streets, yet just the RB 36, pick 127 on
22:51ESPN. Particularly surprising because again, as we talked about with the wide receivers, some of this does seem to admittedly be the higher stakes leagues
22:59taking wide receivers a little bit earlier than the ESPN and Yahoo leagues as a whole. The positional differences weren't quite as big. Here though, we're
23:07seeing it at running back. So, here's the case for Audric Estime.
23:11He had RBA production following the team's week 12 bye with JK Dobbins out of the picture.
23:17To my knowledge, it is legal for players to get better from year one to year two.
23:21And just big picture, man. Audric Estime as a rookie had nearly 900 yards and scored 12 touchdowns.
23:28He was trusted enough by Sean Payton, a notoriously fickle coach sometimes with that, to be out there as the running back, y'all, for the most important
23:36games of the season in the playoffs.
23:38He is 25 years old, but you know what? We're living in 2026.
23:4325 is fine. Who cares if he's a little older right now?
23:45The allure here is the receiving upside.
23:47And that was the part where he looked best. He had the really long play against the Bills to help, you know, win
23:51that game in the wildcard round.
23:53Did good things as a pass catcher all year long. That was easily the best part of his game.
23:59Since 2020, we've had 56 running backs catch at least 50 passes in a season.
24:0546 of them, guys, 82% posted top 24 numbers in PPR points per game.
24:12Last year, Audric Estime caught 47 passes. I believe he was the RB24 exactly in PPR points per game.
24:19Where Audric Estime wins, he gets a little better in year two. That's reasonable.
24:23The Broncos offense is really good.
24:25Vegas is kind of down on them. Again, very surprising to me to see that they're 19th. I think personally that's one of the ranks where they're going to
24:32swing up and Vegas is going to be wrong here. I'm going to be right for once.
24:36It's a very good offensive line though.
24:39Pretty much unanimous top three, top five, depending on what source you want to look at.
24:43Year three QB and Bo Nix could take a leap with Jaylen Waddle. We like the play callers. It's a good offensive
24:48environment, all right? We can agree on that.
24:51And it's a player with explosive pass catching ability.
24:53That's a lot of good things. Just that alone is pretty I can admit that.
24:59Where I come in and why I haven't been drafting R.J. Harvey, you just you need J.K. Dobbins to get injured. And you
25:06might just say, "Well, he will. He's J.K. Dobbins."
25:09This wasn't Rhamondre Stevenson, Trayvon Henderson last year, though. That was It was 162 touches for Stevenson to 158 for Henderson in their 14 full games
25:18together in the regular season. I get it. Rhamondre mag 'em in the playoffs.
25:23But in the regular season, it was very, very close.
25:26It was not close in Denver. Dobbins had 164 touches compared to 75 for R.J.
25:31Harvey in weeks 1 through 10.
25:34Yeah, the Bengals and Cowboys games were nice for Harvey. Those games were nice for pretty much everyone in the NFL last
25:39season.
25:40Seeing Dobbins, and when J.K. Dobbins is in that backfield, you guys already know. They're loading the box against this dude.
25:475 yd per carry for J.K. Dobbins, 3.7 for R.J. Harvey.
25:53Looking at it right now on Next Gen Stats, Dobbins had I will say this is surprising to me.
25:58I'll cut R.J. Harvey a little slack here.
26:00I assumed that R.J. And I made an ass out of you and me accordingly, guys.
26:03There we go. Learn Learn something new every day. I assumed that R.J. Harvey faced eight plus defenders in the box on
26:09a far lower rate than J.K. Dobbins.
26:11Really wasn't the case.
26:13Top six running backs last year in the highest percentage of carries against eight plus defenders in the box. Number one, Quinshon Judkins, followed by
26:19Derrick Henry, J.K. Dobbins, Zach Charbonnet, David Montgomery, and R.J.
26:23Harvey in sixth place. So, I'm not even going to complain then about R.J. Harvey's yards per carry. I should not complain as much before.
26:33I will watch the film and get better. I apologize sincerely. Truly. Either way, the volume aspect firmly in Dobbins' favor.
26:41While I'm not going to completely ridicule Harvey, they did both face a lot of eight-man boxes. Dobbins was objectively better against them.
26:49And now Now got Keaontay Ingram in the picture.
26:52And Jonah Coleman, I did a little study during the pre-draft process.
26:56I ranked basically the top 15, I mean it was like 20.
26:59Most of the guys that end up being drafted, okay? Most of the class is running backs. I took their ranks in
27:05career pressure rate allowed, how's their pass blocking?
27:08I took their ranks in drop rate, how reliable are their hands?
27:11And their career fumble rate, are they fumbling the football?
27:14Average all those together, I call it the little things, and I ranked all the running backs.
27:19Number one running back in the little things last year, guys, Jonah Coleman.
27:22And Washington. Number two is Jeremiah Love.
27:25Dameon Claymore was not very good at the little things, just saying.
27:29Jonah Coleman's also 220 lbs.
27:32You can go look at the clip yourself, this dude freaking put Sonny Styles in the dirt in pass pro.
27:37He's also someone in short yardage that can factor in. He also caught a lot of passes at Washington. Jonah Coleman can
27:43do everything that you need a running back to do, and because of that, I worry that this Denver backfield is no longer
27:50a situation where R J Harvey is one injury and J K Dobbins away from being an RB1 handcuff.
27:56I think he needs two injuries to be an RB1 handcuff.
27:59If Dobbins goes down, Harvey would certainly get a boost in the ranks, but it could be a situation similar to the
28:05Chargers.
28:06Talked about in our last video. Keaton Mitchell, his role maybe doesn't change that much. Cam'Ron Vidal actually comes in and takes over a lot from Melvin
28:13Gordon. That's how I see it playing out.
28:15That's how it plays out in Buffalo.
28:16James Cook goes down, Raheem Mostert plays more, Ty Johnson's role doesn't change. That could be the case for R J Harvey in Denver, man, because of what
28:23Jonah Coleman can do between the tackles, in short yardage, and in pass pro. Very problematic.
28:28I don't think Coleman is necessarily going to prevent Harvey from having decent stand-alone value, but he could.
28:34And this it's just looking more and more like Tampa Bay, man, where we have not one, not two, but three running backs
28:40involved.
28:41It's 2026.
28:43Almost every backfield is two running backs of some shape or size, okay?
28:48It's usually a 70-30 split. Like that's like a pretty solid RB1. There's five or six guys in the league basically that play
28:5480% or more snaps during more weeks than not.
28:58We can live with two running back committees. Three or more is when it gets complicated cuz then we don't even have the one injury away upside. So,
29:06pros are taking them early though.
29:07And I do think in the right builds, you find yourself in this RB3 range. Maybe you've only only you've only got one
29:13running back. Then okay, I Do you think RJ Harvey makes a little sense? Top 90 picks for me, it's still a situation
29:20where I think I'm usually clicking some of these wide receivers still. And then I'm just saying, all right, well, I'll go ahead and just get different
29:26handcuffs. I'll get Is Woody Marks that different?
29:29X amount of picks later?
29:32Could be. Pros are saying it is.
29:34You know, I just got done with the wide receiver saying, oh yeah, I love Christian Watson. I love Parker Washington. The pros agree with me. Look
29:40how smart I am.
29:42So, the fact that again, I don't really believe in RJ Harvey, but the pros are saying I should.
29:46It is uh it's very interesting to me.
29:48So, my mind's not completely changed. Maybe your mind is completely changed with some of the wide receivers I brought up before, but definitely interesting. Last
29:55point I will bring up it's just been a minute, man, since we've seen a Sean Payton RB like do something big in
30:00fantasy football land.
30:02From 2006 to 2021, I mean it was incredible. We're talking about top 11 fantasy RBs in all but three years.
30:12Alvin Kamara ripping off top five finish after top five. Then there's Mark Ingram was awesome. Darren Sproles had some great years. Even Reggie Bush, man.
30:20People act like Reggie Bush did nothing for the Saints. He had three straight top 10 seasons in PPR points per game to
30:26start his career with Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Isn't that kind of wild, too? I I love Reggie Bush, man. I'm 33
30:32years old, okay? So, I Reggie Bush in his prime at USC, like that was me 10 to 15 years old basically like really
30:41getting into football.
30:43So, yeah, Reggie was the freaking man.
30:46One of if not the best college football players I've ever watched, but this revisionist history that Reggie Bush if only he come out a different era.
30:54This dude got dropped into the Breeze Payton Saints, man. That was the ideal situation. He caught like 80 passes in year one. Remember that play in Chicago
31:03Soldier Field flipping into the end zone? That was on a cool wheel design.
31:06He made a great play.
31:08I can't explain to you why it didn't work out, but to just go ahead and say like, "Oh, Reggie Bush is a victim of
31:13being born in the wrong time." I don't know, man.
31:16Back to the subject at hand though, R.J.
31:18Harvey not Reggie Bush, I'll tell you that much. R.J. Harvey he's a perfectly fine mid-tier RB3. I think it's a top 90 pick still a little
31:26bit steep for me.
31:28Last guy though another player who I do think deserves some love here particularly in full PPR formats, Kenneth Gainwell, guys.
31:35Going RB32, RB34 in the high stakes streets, a little bit lower RB37 RB33 in Yahoo and ESPN. The pick difference though once again, we are seeing the
31:44pros really, really just go after these more PPR friendly running backs as opposed to the Joes out here. So, again, sorry, forgot to start with this, but
31:53reigning Steelers team MVP, Kenneth Gainwell, caught 73 passes last year.
31:58Boom, then his one game without Jaylen Warren. Hopefully you guys woke up early on that Sunday when they were in England
32:02or wherever. Jaylen Warren late scratch and we had Gainwell going be the clear lead running back. 99 rushing yards and a touchdown and our 35 receiving in his
32:11only game without Jaylen Warren.
32:14Same stat I just brought up for R.J. Harvey also applies to Kenneth Gainwell, guys. 82% hit rate of top 24 production when you're an RB catching at
32:22least 50 passes and everything we've heard out of Buccaneers training camp, it's that the committee is fairly close between these guys and that's Gainwell
32:29being the one catching all of the passes. So, I would love if Tampa can just say, "Hey, Bucky and Kenny, you are our guys,
32:37but I do worry, as much as they're capable of moving between the tackles, it does seem like a between the 20s situation
32:46for Bucky, and probably a mostly pass-down back role for Kenneth Gainwell.
32:50Then who they bringing at the 1-yard line when they have a chance? Probably Sean Tucker. Again, non-carries inside the 5-yard line last year for Sean
32:57Tucker, zero for Bucky Irving.
33:00Bucks are saying the usual summertime stick, "Oh, we're going to use pony personnel, two running backs on the field at the same time."
33:06We'll see how much that actually comes to fruition.
33:09My concern is Tucker limits the sky-high handcuff upside here.
33:13I mentioned that with Denver.
33:15If Dobbins gets hurt, it becomes RJ and Coleman. It doesn't just become RJ. I think if Bucky gets hurt, it becomes
33:21Gainwell and Tucker. It doesn't just become Gainwell.
33:25To Gainwell and Harvey's credit, they do have the theoretical three-down tool set. They're not small enough to not run between the
33:33tackles. They got the pass-catching ability, they got the big-play ability.
33:38It's just the presence of that third guy who really does profile as more so your between-the-tackles grinder. So, we'll say, could Gainwell score more fantasy points
33:47than Bucky Irving this year? It's possible. It's why Bucky Irving is one of my fades. Seeing Gainwell get up there with the pros, man,
33:54I probably should be a little higher. If I am fading Bucky Irving, it would make sense that I should be higher on Kenneth
34:00Gainwell, but again, I just struggle to see that best-case boom upside. Like, when I'm in that RB 30 range, I look at Jonathan Brooks or the
34:09Washington running backs or Jordan Mason, just guys who can straight up get the starting job without an injury occurring or be the
34:16starter, but we're just kind of unsure of the situation right now.
34:19Gainwell, Harvey, I feel like I have a good grasp on what their committee is going to look like. Could certainly be
34:24wrong.
34:25New OC in Tampa Bay.
34:27Coleman is a bit of an unknown in Denver.
34:29Either way, man, Kenny Gainwell, R.J. Harvey.
34:34If we do get better, I would say just preseason information, more constant drumbeats out of training camp that these guys are looking like the
34:42clear-cut pass-down backs. Just got to read out some full PPR. Usually, you don't see that archetype bust. So, for me, Kenny Gainwell, my RB 37, pick 108,
34:50kind of in between the pros and Joes, a little bit more on the pro side with the wide receivers, running backs, I'm still
34:55a tad skeptical, but maybe I do need to lean into what some of these guys are doing in the high-stakes leagues.
35:02But yeah, guys, that's going to do it for another edition of this lovely fantasy football show. If you did not find it lovely, then let me know in the
35:07comments. Always appreciate you guys keeping me honest there. Maybe you did find it lovely, in which case, also let me know. Maybe you just want to talk
35:13some ball. I am here for whatever you guys are trying to bark about. So, appreciate all the support so far, guys.
35:18Again, got a bunch of written content going up regularly at rotowire.com because, you know what? If I don't write a bunch, then I just feel lost trying to
35:25actually talk about this beautiful game, too. So, again, updating ranks over there, got a bunch of cool tools over there, and very much looking forward to
35:31continue to talk to you guys over here.
35:33So, if you like the video, please like the video, and hitting that subscribe button always does help, as well. You could tell a friend, but if you just
35:39want to try to keep all of our secrets to ourselves over here in these streets, totally get that, as well. But, anyway,
35:44guys, it is still August, after all, a few more weeks till real football is going to be on television screens. So,
35:50make sure you give your parents a call, and just try to be a good overall person as much as possible. But, hey, we'll be
35:55back this week with plenty more content.
35:57Football, I can smell it in the air, baby. Autumn's almost here. So, so excited. So, thanks again for tuning in.
36:02I'm Ian Hartz. Until next time, take care, everybody.
