Fantasy Football with Ian Hartitz
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
30 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 7, 2026
Published
Fri, August 7, 2026
25
Player insights
25
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownAaron RodgersBo NixBrady CookBryce YoungChris GodwinCourtland SuttonD.J. MooreDeVonta SmithDrake LondonEmeka EgbukaGarrett WilsonJacoby BrissettJaylen Waddle
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
NegativeUsage17:46
Ian Hartitz notes that DeVonta Smith no longer shares the field with A.J. Brown, which serves as context for target share projections.
Insight pageAaron Rodgers
NegativeProjection3:53
Ian Hartitz uses Aaron Rodgers as a benchmark for low average target depth, noting that Rodgers had a longer average target depth than Kyler Murray during the 2025 season.
Insight pageBo Nix
NegativeProjection17:27
Ian Hartitz notes that while Bo Nix has a strong arm and potential for plays out of structure, his efficiency metrics are concerning, specifically citing his 6.5 yards per attempt over the last two years as being in the company of poor NFL quarterbacks. Hartitz acknowledges the potential for improvement under Sean Payton but notes that Nix has yet to demonstrate that ceiling over a full season.
Insight pageBrady Cook
NegativeProjection3:58
Ian Hartitz identifies Brady Cook as one of the few quarterbacks with a lower average target depth than Kyler Murray during the 2025 season.
Insight pageBryce Young
NegativeProjection12:20
Ian Hartitz expresses significant concern regarding Bryce Young, citing poor efficiency metrics: he ranks 53rd in passing success rate, 55th in yards per attempt, and 50th in sack rate among 59 quarterbacks with at least 30 starts since 2000. RotoWire projects him for 3,184 yards (27th) and 20.6 touchdowns (24th). Hartitz notes that while the Panthers offense is expected to struggle, Young might see more passing volume than Jacoby Brissett, who is at higher risk of being benched.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue20:15
Ian Hartitz views Chris Godwin as a strong value pick in the WR4 range, noting that reports from training camp indicate he has regained his explosive ability following a 2023 ankle injury. Hartitz argues the fantasy community is overstating the gap between Godwin and Emeka Egbuka, and while he acknowledges Godwin is 30, he remains a more reliable option than Egbuka.
Insight pageCourtland Sutton
NegativeUsage17:52
Ian Hartitz identifies Courtland Sutton as a veteran presence who may continue to soak up red zone targets in the Broncos' offense, despite concerns regarding quarterback Bo Nix's efficiency metrics (6.5 yards per attempt over the last two years).
Insight pageD.J. Moore
PositiveValue26:08
Ian Hartitz notes that DJ Moore has historically dealt with poor quarterback play, drawing a comparison to the career track record of Andre Johnson. Despite these challenges, Hartitz now prefers Moore over Terry McLaurin in his updated wide receiver rankings.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveValue15:23
Ian Hartitz identifies DeVonta Smith as a talented player he prefers over Xavier Legette and Terry McLaurin at their respective ADP ranges. While acknowledging Smith is widely viewed as a borderline WR1, Hartitz notes that Jaylen Waddle possesses a higher target ceiling because Waddle is no longer competing for targets with Tyreek Hill, whereas Smith remains in a high-volume passing environment.
Insight pageDrake London
NegativeValue8:42
Ian Hartitz notes that Drake London is currently being drafted early despite having a questionable quarterback situation, with London dealing with Michael Penix Jr. in the mix.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
NegativeProjection15:46
Ian Hartitz highlights Emeka Egbuka as a potential bust candidate (5/10 bust factor) due to his 36th-ranked PPR finish last year and the Buccaneers' projected 18th-ranked offense. Hartitz notes Egbuka's high-end potential when healthy but expresses concern regarding his role, stating he would not be surprised if Chris Godwin outscores him. However, Hartitz also expressed a preference for Egbuka over Godwin in some contexts, citing the potential for target competition to tighten.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
NegativeBust21:04
Ian Hartitz explicitly labels Garrett Wilson as a high-bust candidate, noting that he would have included him in his official bust list if he hadn't already discussed him as a personal favorite elsewhere. Despite finishing as the WR15 last year, Hartitz maintains a high bust rate for Wilson.
Insight pageJacoby Brissett
NegativeDepth Chart13:59
Ian Hartitz suggests Jacoby Brissett is at high risk of being benched, using him as a benchmark for quarterback instability. This potential for a mid-season change could impact the passing volume of the Carolina Panthers offense.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveBreakout17:42
Ian Hartitz is bullish on Jaylen Waddle, ranking him as a top-12 WR and the engine of his passing game. Hartitz assigns a low bust probability (3/10) and expects Waddle to succeed in Sean Payton's scheme, noting he has a higher target ceiling than DeVonta Smith. Hartitz remains invested in Waddle despite acknowledging potential offensive environment risks.
Insight pageJonathan Mingo
NegativeBust7:26
Ian Hartitz identifies Jonathan Mingo as a potential fantasy bust; despite a decent rookie season, he finished only as the WR24 in PPR points per game. Drafting him at his current ESPN WR16 ADP requires a significant leap of faith that both Mingo will improve and the Panthers' offense will become productive.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeBust0:39
Ian Hartitz identifies Justin Jefferson as a potential bust at his current WR6 ADP, noting that while Jefferson is an elite talent, his 2025 WR32 finish was driven by poor quarterback play. Hartitz expresses skepticism that Kyler Murray represents a significant upgrade, citing Murray's low 6.0 yards per attempt (37th of 42) and 6.0 air yards per attempt (43rd of 45) in 2025, and noting that Murray's playstyle does not align with the intermediate, over-the-middle passing game Jefferson needs. Hartitz prefers Jefferson to other wide receivers but is hesitant to use a top-10 pick on him due to these quarterback concerns.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
NegativeUsage26:20
Ian Hartitz highlights that Keenan Allen's established history with Justin Herbert did not prevent him from being out-targeted by rookie Ladd McConkey, signaling a potential shift in target distribution for the Chargers offense.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeProjection3:26
Ian Hartitz questions Kyler Murray's viability as a quarterback, pointing to his 2025 metrics: 6.0 yards per attempt (37th of 42) and 6.0 air yards per attempt (43rd of 45). Hartitz argues that Murray's inability to throw in rhythm over the middle of the field makes him a poor fit for receivers like Justin Jefferson and uses him as a benchmark for low efficiency.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveValue15:23
Ian Hartitz considers Ladd McConkey a very talented player and a preferred draft target over Xavier Legette and Emeka Egbuka. Hartitz emphasizes that McConkey is more talented than Quentin Johnston and has already demonstrated the ability to out-target Keenan Allen, suggesting a significant role in the Chargers' offense.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveValue15:26
Ian Hartitz describes Malik Nabers as an amazing talent and explicitly prefers him over Xavier Legette and Terry McLaurin in drafts.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue27:05
Ian Hartitz is highly optimistic about Parker Washington, stating he is 'drinking the Kool-Aid' on the receiver and has moved him ahead of Terry McLaurin in his updated wide receiver rankings.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue20:57
Ian Hartitz ranks Stefon Diggs as WR42 and emphasizes that he should not be dismissed as a secondary option in his new offense. Diggs has not finished worse than WR25 since 2016 and is viewed as a significant threat to target share in Washington, placing him in a tier with Michael Pittman Jr., Xavier Worthy, and Jakobi Meyers.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
NegativeBust20:51
Ian Hartitz labels Terry McLaurin a high-risk bust candidate (9/10 risk) due to his current ADP, his age (turning 31 in September), and the arrival of Stefon Diggs, who Hartitz considers the best receiver McLaurin has ever shared the field with. This competition threatens McLaurin's target volume and upside for 150+ targets, leading Hartitz to move him behind players like Christian Watson, Parker Washington, and Jameson Williams in his rankings.
Insight pageTyreek Hill
NegativeUsage17:46
Ian Hartitz notes that Jaylen Waddle is no longer playing alongside Tyreek Hill, which is a key factor in his projected target share increase.
Insight pageXavier Legette
NegativeBust9:04
Ian Hartitz labels Xavier Legette a significant bust candidate with an 8/10 bust rate. While acknowledging his talent, Hartitz prefers drafting other wide receivers in that range, specifically naming DeVonta Smith, Ladd McConkey, and Malik Nabers as superior targets. Hartitz explicitly stated he has nothing positive to say about Legette's outlook.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Today I'm going through five wide receivers who currently carry a top 24 ADP over on ESPN, but last season finished wide receiver 24 or worse, and
0:09Vegas currently has their offense ranked among the league's bottom half in terms of their projected scoring. So we're talking about guys who, yes, are
0:17talented enough to be being drafted inside the top 24 in the first place, but weren't overly productive last year and aren't exactly in an offense we're
0:25expecting fireworks from. So accordingly, not a great combination. I want to go through the glass half full, glass half empty scenario for each and
0:33try to determine whether or not these guys are in fact looking like busts ahead of next season. Kicking things off with Mr. Justin Jefferson. Guys,
0:42currently Vegas has the Vikings offense ranked 20th going to 2026, and we're talking about, despite being one of the best wide receivers on planet Earth,
0:50just the reigning wide receiver 32 in PPR points per game. So if we did want to try to paint more of a glass half
0:57full picture here, it would be getting a quarterback upgrade from J.J. McCarthy to Kyler Murray. I actually went ahead and looked at a full list of these wide
1:05receivers changing quarterbacks this off season and found Justin Jefferson to be one of the biggest beneficiaries in terms of catchable target rate. I even
1:14removed screens from this and we can actually see a plus 9% increase in catchable target rate in terms of what Jefferson was dealing with with J.J.
1:22McCarthy last year and Kyler what Kyler Murray did in the first five games again when throwing to his wide receivers. So
1:29again, like we all agree, Justin Jefferson is the absolute man. Leads the NFL in receiving yards since he entered the league. Leads the NFL in receiving
1:36yards since the year before he got into the league. So that's what we're talking about here. That's how freaking great Justin Jefferson is.
1:42But that didn't stop him from finishing wide receiver 32 last year. And as we get into the glass half empty picture,
1:49are we positive Kyler's going to be a big upgrade?
1:53We all except Thor. We all hate J.J. McCarthy.
1:57Just We don't hate him personally. Maybe you do, but we should all be able to agree that he was not a good quarterback
2:02last year. Like he was a terrible quarterback last year.
2:06I don't love that this consensus near consensus really, really bad quarterback average quite a bit more yards per attempt than Kyler Murray, guys. Kyler
2:15last year, six yards per attempt that ranked 37th among 42 qualified QBs. JJ McCarthy was at 6.7 which ranked 27th, so
2:24It was also this weird thing where Kyler not like he's been afraid of throwing downfield in the past, but last year,
2:30man, six air yards per attempt. That ranked 43rd among 45 qualified quarterbacks. Old man Aaron Rodgers had a longer average target depth than Kyler
2:40Murray last season, man. Only Dylan Gabriel and Brady Cook were lower, so really, really tough company. Some stats, EPA per dropback paint Kyler a
2:49little bit better. You get some of the rushing stuff in there, but man, when you throw in the caveat, too, that what we're hoping to get out of
2:56Jefferson is more goodness over the middle of the field, okay? That's been one of the big callbacks, Sam Darnold finding a way to get the ball to Jetta's
3:02intermediate over the middle areas.
3:05That's not really Kyler's game, man.
3:06Kyler does a lot of good things well, particularly off script, particularly in what he can do running the football, being able to see over that line,
3:12throwing rhythm over the middle, not exactly something great. So, I'm probably not going to be going to war with Jettas. If I did have to go
3:20ahead and put myself out there on a limb and say, "Hey, he's wide receiver six right now in ADP. Should we be expecting
3:25that to persist? Should we call him a bust at that?" I would be leaning more towards bust. But if we have a scale of
3:30one being not a bust at all and 10 being, "Oh my god, it's a complete bust.
3:33You got to stay away." I'd probably settle in around a six or seven out of 10 there. But again, guys, I do more and
3:40more I look at it and I don't like doing the fantasy alleged expert thing where I'm like, "Oh yeah, I'll I'll get some exposure to Justin
3:47Jefferson. I'm in a lot of leagues." And I feel like it's such a cop-out, you know? At the end of the day, we're here
3:51to try to give you guys advice and I'm trying to run the numbers and give you the best advice possible, but going to
3:56be wrong and feel free to yell at me when that is the case. Right now, I am leaning towards Justin Jefferson being
4:01more of a bust as a top-10 pick, not because he's not a great football player, because because more so because I do worry that this quarterback
4:08situation, which single-handedly doomed him last year, isn't in all that much of a better spot ahead of 2026.
4:15Speaking of some of that fancy advice though, real quick guys, I want to invite you to use code Ian 20 on any
4:20RotoWire subscription. You'll get my expert ranks. You'll get all my articles. You'll get all of our awesome tools including our live draft
4:26assistant, including our in-season waiver wire start/sit tool. That and so so so much more guys. So again, if you're planning on just trying to get a
4:33little bit of a leg up, you know, you really want to take it to your friends and family this year, get those bragging
4:37rights, get that championship banner, team RotoWire would love to help you out along the way and you can get 20% off
4:43any subscription with code Ian 20.
4:45Back to business. Terrace Marshall also popping up guys as a potential bust here, right? The Panthers offense per Vegas just 26th entering the 2026 season
4:55and we're talking about a guy who while he had a good rookie season, still just the wide receiver 24 in PPR points per
5:01game. So, you know, when we're having to draft the guy as the wide receiver 16 on ESPN, we are taking a little bit of a
5:06leap of faith and assuming that he's going to not only improve, but that this Panthers offense is going to be, you
5:11know, actually good at football. But hey, glass half full for a second.
5:15He's obviously a really good football player. And it's not like there's other It's not like there's not other wide receivers going even earlier in the
5:21drafts that maybe don't have the cleanest quarterback situation, all right? Drake London, he's dealing with two uh Michael Penix and also Nico
5:27Collins with C.J. Stroud, someone who has been better than Bryce Young generally throughout the careers, but obviously isn't without his warts as
5:33well. So, quarterback situation leaves a bit to be desired obviously, but Jaylen Cocker really only the other the only other show in town. Chris Brazell now
5:42out for the season already. I have nothing nice to say about Xavier Legette, so I'm not going to say anything at all.
5:48No tight ends to speak of.
5:50Terrace Marshall man.
5:52That wide receiver 24 mark as a rookie, not bad at all. And there were so many plays. Literally started in week one
5:58where he just he would catch the ball and barely miss getting the second foot down. Or there was a ticky-tack OPI call
6:03at the end of the year. I track all this stuff in this sheet support which I cannot wait to unveil again this year.
6:08Kind of like the beyond the box score metrics that you'll see if you watch the games and maybe won't catch in the box
6:13score.
6:15T-Mac was up there with the freaking most near miss opportunities at the position last year. So, 150 plus targets seem to
6:23be on the table. Maybe Bryce Young is ready to make a mini leap, not a short joke, I swear.
6:28I do think Terrace Marshall you can argue the bull case is not that big of a difference between him and guys
6:34like Nico Collins and Drake London. The glass half empty is realistically this passing game is probably going to suck guys. And do we really want to
6:42invest a top 16 wide receiver pick on the lead dog in a passing game we expect to suck?
6:48Bryce Young, let's be nice for a second.
6:50Throws a great deep ball. Look at the passing efficiency metrics. All these advanced stats when he's throwing the ball 20 plus yards down field, they're
6:57going to tell you he's one of the better quarterbacks at doing so. I think the eye test adds up man. Does a very
7:02catchable deep ball, nice loft underneath it. Again, that is a strength of his game. Also, the dude's kind of Houdini in the pocket sometimes man.
7:10When he's able to move around like that was a superpower at Bama.
7:14Now, took my little bit to get adjusted in the NFL. He's obviously not a guy with you know outstanding physical tools
7:19in terms of his height, in terms of his speed, size and all that. But, even then, was able to run around a lot last
7:24year. Had some big plays against the Seahawks and even Rams down the stretch where again, you saw what he could do
7:28with his legs. Extending plays, finding ways to get the ball out at the last second.
7:33At his best, he does a real nice deep ball and he can be shifty in the pocket.
7:38That was me being nice.
7:40The problem I have with Bryce Young is that pretty much every stat that we use to try to evaluate quarterbacks says he
7:47sucks.
7:48Here's Bryce's rank among 59 quarterbacks during their first three seasons since 2000, minimum 30 starts.
7:56Out of 59 quarterbacks, he's 53rd in passing success rate. He's 55th in yards per attempt. He's 50th in yards per game. He's 47th in touchdown rate, 41st
8:05in passer rating, 50th in sack rate.
8:09Even the passer rating, man, like 41st?
8:11I just got done listing all the mid-50 numbers. Sounds okay. That's still bad.
8:17RotoWire projections, which you can check out at rotowire.com, they have Bryce 3,184 yards, 27th. 20.6 touchdowns, that's 24th.
8:27Maybe you think those are low.
8:31I don't think you disagree, though, that if we had to rank all 32 starting quarterbacks, particularly team-wide, you know what I'm saying? Like we still
8:39expect the Arizona Cardinals to also throw for more yards than the Panthers, even if Bryce maybe throws some more than Jacoby, cuz Jacoby could get
8:45benched first.
8:47It's really rough, guys.
8:50Brad Idzik has taken over the play-calling for Dave Canales. He was, you know, maybe that's going to lead to a new found leap.
9:00Could have been Would have been a lot cooler if we had extra gems and Joes to make this offense better, man.
9:05I like Jalen Coker as much as the next co-kid.
9:08Terrace Marshall is really good. But man, they've never been able to get the tight ends involved.
9:15I tried to defend Brazwell, but he's out of the picture, so it doesn't even matter. So, I get to this range and I
9:20look at Terrace Marshall and I say he's a really good wide receiver. I do believe in his talent. I also think Ladd
9:25McConkey is a really good talent. I also think DeVonte Smith is a really good talent. I think Malik Nabers is an
9:29amazing talent.
9:32I'm drafting all those guys over Terrace Marshall. I have not made a habit of drafting this dude. If we can get a
9:36quarterback upgrade in Carolina or if Bryce Young finds a way to be really good at football, I will obviously be wrong. This is a bust note that I am
9:43going to generally agree with. I will go on eight out of 10 bust rate for Mr.
9:46McMillan.
9:48Next up, we have Emeka Egbuka, guys.
9:50Again, these are not necessarily guys I'm saying are going to bust, but I'm saying based on how they finished last year and
9:55based on how their offense is being projected to finish this year, we should at least be trying to be aware of it,
10:00all right? Cuz there's been nothing but love for Emeka Egbuka, and yet he finished last year ranked 36th in PPR points per game, and the Buccaneers
10:07offense going into 2026 ranked just 18th per the Men in the Desert. So, glass half full though would be what Emeka
10:14Egbuka did in the first 6 weeks, particularly first 5 weeks of last season. Wide receiver three overall behind only Puka and Amon-Ra St. Brown
10:21in weeks 1 through 5, 102.4 PPR points during his first five games. The only other receivers to ever surpass that mark, Puka Nacua and Randy freaking
10:31Moss.
10:33There is the long Eagles play where, you know, Baker threw it up between two dudes, they ran into each other, took off.
10:41Some of the separation wasn't amazing, but I don't know. You also watch the Seahawks game, he's running a nasty out and up and catching a 60-yard bat
10:4860-yard pass getting tackled at the 1-yard line. Two touchdowns in the season opener. I mean, I don't think Egbuka necessarily looked
10:56like a top three wide receiver in the NFL. I think his fancy numbers were a little bit inflated early on, but man,
11:01he still looked really freaking good out there, guys. So, no more Mike Evans, Egbuka, we're hearing from Zach Robinson and the kind of brass over in Tampa Bay
11:09right now that he is going to be their version of Cooper Kupp, which I know is annoying for people like me to always be
11:14saying that cuz it kind of implies that Cooper Kupp isn't just amazing in his own right, but hey, my colleague over here at Team
11:21RotoWire, Theo Gremminger, said it nice.
11:23Emeka Egbuka makes you think, guys.
11:25Really does make you think. So, he is projected and the favorite to lead this offense in targets. So, even if the
11:32offense isn't incredible, we'd still expect that to yield some good results for Abuka in fantasy land. And if we did Benjamin Button his rookie season,
11:38certainly we'll be feeling a lot better about a guy breaking out down the stretch. And oh yeah, why did he not do
11:43better down the stretch? Because he suffered a hamstring injury, which again made life that much tougher on him.
11:47Great staff from Ben Solak over at ESPN.
11:50Amecca Abuka last year had 11 routes of at least 18 mph in his first 5 weeks of the year. Then he had the hamstring
11:57injury, only 11 such routes in the remaining 12 weeks combined. So again, you can see it with your own eyes, we
12:03can see it with the numbers from next gen stats. Clearly he was compromised.
12:07When he wasn't compromised, legit high-end wide receiver one in fantasy land. So that's the glass half full.
12:13Glass half empty, the rest of last season happened and we are probably overstating the difference between him and Chris Godwin, who has long time, man, been an awesome
12:24fantasy receiver. In fact, the last time we saw Chris Godwin healthy to start a season, what he do? He worked as the overall
12:31wide receiver two behind Jamar Chase in 2024. Funny how we forget that so quickly. You know what I'm saying? And why did Godwin not do great last year?
12:38Well, he was coming back from a freaking horrific dislocated ankle injury.
12:43Reports out of training camp, Godwin looks like he's got his explosive ability back.
12:47He is getting up there. He's 30 years old at this point.
12:50But man, when we look at some of the discrepancies between the really highly ranked wide receivers and the other guys, I don't have the same
12:59conviction here. All right?
13:03Lad McConkey versus Quentin Johnston. I think we can all agree Lad's the much more talented player, right? Not that QJ can't do his thing, but
13:11Puka versus Davante Adams at this point, obviously Puka. Justin Jefferson versus Jordan Addison. Again, Addison's really good, he's not Justin Jefferson.
13:19Out of all those, even Chris Olave, Jordan Addison, I'd say that one's actually tighter.
13:24Disregard that one.
13:27Out of those, I think we can agree Amekha Ebuka, Chris Godwin, we would be far less surprised if we look up in week 14 and like, "Oh,
13:34Godwin's outscoring Amekha Ebuka this year."
13:39Godwin's an issue.
13:41Maybe Jalen McMillan, Ted Tezz Johnson, maybe these guys could be issues. I do think Ebuka is going to have a full-time
13:47role. He was rotating with Jalen McMillan down the stretch of last year.
13:51Now, that was with Mike Evans in town.
13:52Mike Evans is no longer there.
13:55I think it had to do with the injury, but we don't know for sure.
13:59Additionally, 2024, more and more guys, if you asked someone who's never watched or played football before, doesn't know anything, but they know
14:09stats. If you just told them, showed them Baker Mayfield's career numbers year by year, they would say 2024 is an outlier.
14:16Now, Baker was incredible in the first 6 weeks of last year, and he has his own injuries to worry about that again took
14:20him down a notch. But again, the complimentary target competition is higher than a lot of other wide receivers in this range.
14:28We have a good quarterback.
14:30I think we can probably agree, not a great one.
14:33And we have a player who, yes, was banged up last year, but man, we have a long way to go from wide
14:40receiver 36 to where he's being drafted right now, which is wide receiver 18.
14:43All that said, I'm still more willing to buy here. This is a first-round pick who broke the freaking Ohio State record for
14:51receptions, second-year player, just very capable of being the Z receiver in the Zach Robinson offense. I think just eating up receptions. So,
15:01Godwin is 30 at this point. I think Godwin's a fine click where he goes in that wide receiver four range, all
15:07right? Good value there.
15:10I will admit, I've been taking McConkey over Amekha Ebuka.
15:15I've been taking Jaylen Waddle over Amekha Ebuka. Malik Nabers, DeVonta Smith.
15:22Zay Flowers is close.
15:25So, I do prefer some guys, but to say Abuka is a major bust risk, I would push back on that. But again, some very real
15:34questions here for Emeka Egbuka. I'd say probably a five out of 10 on the bust factor here.
15:39Up next in our potential bust watch, Jaylen Waddle, guys.
15:44Yeah, Jaylen Waddle, the guy I can't stop drafting, the guy I got ranked inside my top 12.
15:49He did pop here.
15:512026 Denver Broncos projected offensive rank per Vegas, 21st.
15:57Waddle's rank in 2025, even with Tyreek Hill being out for most of the season, just the wide receiver 29 in PPR points
16:04per game. So again, he fits our criteria of being in a bottom half offense per Vegas, and also being someone who
16:12couldn't finish better than wide receiver 24 last year. Now, the glass half full for Waddle, I'll try to keep it short because I go on about
16:18this dude seemingly every single show, but he's the wide receiver one for an offense that just had Bo Nix, Bo freaking Nix, lead the NFL in pass
16:27attempts. Speaking of Bo freaking Nix, maybe he takes a step forward.
16:32It's legal. We've seen young quarterbacks get this sort of insertion early in their career and all of a sudden really become great. Jalen Hurts
16:40with A.J. Brown, Kyler Murray with DeAndre Hopkins, Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs, Tua himself with Tyreek Hill.
16:46Adding someone like Jaylen Waddle who can change the way defenses have to defend this offense based on his speed and field stretching ability really
16:54could make life that much better for Bo Nix, entire offense, and accordingly, their number one wide receiver, which is Jaylen Waddle. We have seen back-to-back
17:02to start his career top 15 seasons in PPR points per game.
17:06And like, my thing is we all accept Devonta Smith as his now borderline wide receiver one in fantasy land. Most people are at least.
17:15What's the huge difference here?
17:17Is it just Jalen Hurts being that much better than Bo Nix? I agree Hurts is better than Bo Nix, but pure passing
17:23getting the ball to their wide receivers, I think we could agree it's closer. Maybe you even want to give Bo Nix the edge. At a minimum, all the
17:32pass game volume that we have in Denver over Philly, give Hurts a little more efficiency than Bo Nix, fine. With the extra volume
17:39being afforded, I mean, Waddle, in my opinion, has a much higher target ceiling than what DeVonta Smith has.
17:44DeVonta no longer is next to AJB. Waddle is no longer next to Tyreek Hill.
17:50Marvin Mims, first-round pick in Philly, Courtland Sutton, older veteran guy in Denver. I don't think there's that big of a difference there, so
17:57Sean Payton, one of the brightest offensive minds of the 21st century, I don't think that's up for debate.
18:03Jaylen Waddle is his wide receiver one.
18:05Everything we hear about training camp is the offense is going through him, playing a lot out of the slot, a lot of
18:09reason for optimism. But again, we're talking about potential bust for a reason, and in the glass-half-empty cases, he couldn't get it done last year
18:18without Tyreek Hill.
18:19And this offense, maybe it's more meh than great.
18:24I look at these Vegas offensive ranks as a directional idea. I don't make it the basis of everything I believe about
18:32life.
18:3321st feels low for me. I would not rank the Broncos 21st. That said, would I rank them in the top 10? I don't
18:43think so.
18:44Broncos offense going the next season deserves to be closer to 16 than one. I think we can agree on that.
18:51So, if Jaylen Waddle is the number one wide receiver for an offense that's more good than great, that still has Courtland Sutton around to maybe
19:00soak up red zone touchdowns, that has a guy in Bo Nix who, yeah, led the league in passing attempts last year, couldn't crack 4,000 yards, that's
19:09pretty damning.
19:116.5 yards per attempt over his last 2 years, that's not good company to be keeping.
19:16I talked about it with Kyler and J.J.
19:17McCarthy.
19:19When you're 6.5 or fewer yards for a temp guys, you're seeing a lot of really, really bad quarterbacks. I don't think Bo Nix is a bad quarterback.
19:26He hasn't exactly been surrounded by a bunch of diamonds here in this offense and now he's got one in Jaylen Waddle,
19:30at least in my yeah, kind of biased opinion cuz I'm drafting this dude a lot, but I'm trying to, you know, cut
19:35through that.
19:38I think the Broncos offense will be better, but what if it's not? What if Bo Nix coming off the ankle is a little bit
19:42hobbled? What if even adding Jaylen Waddle to the situation doesn't help Bo Nix really improve from just objectively being one of the lesser efficient
19:49passers in the NFL?
19:51I saw the Packers game down the stretch, even the playoff game against the Bills.
19:55We've seen the high ceiling there.
19:57Bo Nix has a cannon.
19:58That bombing against the Bengals, Marvin Mims.
20:01He can make plays out of structure.
20:04There's a ceiling here for Bo Nix attached to Sean Payton adding someone like Jaylen Waddle, but we simply haven't seen that ceiling over
20:10the course of an entire season yet.
20:12Broncos very much ran hot in one-score games last year. Maybe they're not going to be as good. Maybe we'll see some ugly
20:1816 to 13 rock fights with that defense and all of a sudden it's just not the best offensive environment to be around.
20:24That said, when it comes time for our bust meter, I'm going three out of 10 here, guys.
20:30I just think that difference in target competition is huge and we're going to see Waddle for the first time featured as the engine of his passing game for
20:38the first time since his rookie year.
20:39And the big thing for me, too, is the difference between that rookie year and then what we saw happen with Mike
20:44McDaniel. When Mike McDaniel came to town, Waddle was just winning with these, again, big, huge plays. Runs after the catch, man. That uh Christmas
20:51Day game against the Packers, him just running away from the entire defense.
20:54Year one, it really wasn't that.
20:57His yards per catch like doubled from year one to year two.
21:00They just had nothing going in that offense and they just basically centered the whole thing around feeding the ball Jaylen Waddle and guess what? He did
21:07great. He racked up a bunch of short catches and he was very adept at doing that. I think we're going to see a
21:13combination of those this year.
21:16And a very well schemed Sean Payton Davis Webb attack with a young ascending quarterback and Bo Nix playing the best football of his career.
21:25I'm excited for Jaylen Waddle, but I will say this type of stuff a little bit concerning there. And hey, maybe there's
21:31a reason why people are drafting Waddle a little bit closer to that wide receiver two line. Whereas myself, you know, I'm leaning more into that wide
21:37receiver one hype there. But Jaylen Waddle is someone where no, I do not think he is going to bust this year, but
21:42certainly has at least a few a few few red flags that if he does bust, we can go back this year and say, oh, right.
21:49So.
21:51Last guy I want to talk about, Scary Terry McLaurin, guys. And hey, this I put this together even before the Stefon
21:58Diggs trade, but we not trade, but signing. We'll talk about him in a second.
22:022026 Washington Commanders Vegas has them 16th in scoring. So just on the edge here, you know, technically top half.
22:10Garrett Wilson, by the way, just missed this because he finished 15th last year, but it was also a shortened season. So, could have added
22:18Garrett Wilson, but I've already talked about him as one of my fades this year anyway. So, yeah, spoiler, if you do
22:22want if you did want to include Garrett Wilson, I would have a very high bust rate for Garrett Wilson.
22:27Terry McLaurin, probably not as high.
22:30But it's not exactly this, you know, case closed scenario.
22:3416th ranked offense. Last year he finished 37th in PPR points per game at the position. Now, a lot of that was catching passes from
22:41Marcus Mariota, didn't get a chance to play much from Jayden Daniels, he had the early season injury stemming from the contract dispute. It was not a clean
22:47season.
22:48We go back in the glass half full scenario.
22:512024, best quarterback play of Terry McLaurin's career, what did he do? He caught 13 touchdowns, man. He was fantastic. Wide receiver 14, 15.8 PPR
23:01points per game.
23:03The only show in town and it didn't matter.
23:06They couldn't stop it. Jayden Daniels is really freaking good. Terry McLaurin was really freaking good.
23:11Match made in heaven. We saw this borderline wide receiver one season.
23:16We now get a healthy Jayden Daniels.
23:19We get David Blow.
23:21David Blow.
23:22He's been in this organization. He was the assistant quarterback coach, maybe the assistant to the quarterback coach last season. They want to do more under
23:28center stuff. They want to do more play action. They want to move Terry McLaurin around more. Not be so stationary in the
23:33Kliff Kingsbury offense. You know what I'm saying?
23:37The glass half full view for Terry McLaurin is that he's a really good receiver who produced really good results in his one year with a really
23:42good quarterback and now we are actually going to see him moved around the formation more for the first time that he's also had those other variables on
23:49his side.
23:51Glass half empty scenario is yeah, I think he'll see less double teams with Stefon Diggs around.
23:58I also think his chances of getting 150 plus targets took a hit.
24:03I talked before about Abooka versus Godwin compared to Jefferson versus Addison.
24:08Compared to, you know, CD versus Pickens. So that's a closer one.
24:14I got to do something where I just kind of again compare all these wide receiver one wide receiver twos and be like who,
24:19where do we have the confidence scale with them?
24:22I'll say this.
24:25Terry McLaurin versus Stefon Diggs.
24:27I think it's a lot closer to Abooka and Godwin than I do it is to Jefferson and Addison in terms of who could actually
24:33be the wide receiver one like in our surprise for that.
24:38McLaurin and the quarterbacks have been horrible. Him and DJ Moore, man. God bless them.
24:43I don't think either has been a as good as Andre Johnson. But like you look at Andre Johnson's quarterbacks throughout his career.
24:50McLaurin and DJ Moore, just their track record, very similar.
24:54Terry, those quarterbacks be damned, he's more so been an upside wide receiver three throughout most of his career.
25:012019, he was a wide receiver 29, then he was a wide receiver 20, 31, 23, 36, 14 in 2024, 34 last season.
25:12He's done this generally as the only wide receiver worth a damn in his offense. Stefon Diggs is objectively the best wide receiver we
25:19have ever seen Terry McLaurin have to share the field with. We had an old Deebo last year.
25:24Rookie year Jahan Dotson was a hell of a drug. I'm an Ohio State guy, so I'll sit here and defend Curtis Samuel until my,
25:29you know, cheeks are even redder than they usually are.
25:32But, man, Zach Ertz was the number two target on that 2024 Commanders team.
25:38So, yeah, Diggs should take away some attention, but he's also going to be a candidate to get triple-digit targets.
25:47And I think that loss in overall target upside, I'm just not convinced we're going to see that gap made up for in overall
25:54efficiency.
25:57You might disagree. I get it. Stefon Diggs is really good, man.
26:02Has not finished worse, Stefon Diggs, than wide receiver 25 since Obama was in office. It's a long time ago, man. Not
26:08to get all political on you guys.
26:10I don't think it's a 100-0 that Terry leads the way in targets.
26:13Like we just saw, different situation, but what would you have said last year the chances this time? Like what would you have thought the chances were
26:22that Keenan Allen would out-target Laviska Shenault? Cuz that happened.
26:27And I know Herbert had a history with Keenan.
26:30But, man, just because it's a later signing, doesn't mean Diggs is someone who we can dismiss as not leading the offense, but
26:39being pretty freaking involved, man. So, I've updated my ranks. Of course, I still prefer Terry McLaurin to Stefon Diggs, but I
26:49prefer Emeka Egbuka to Chris Godwin. I just think, again, the chances of them being a little bit tighter, they matter, man.
26:57I moved Terry McLaurin down before I had him right there in Mike Evans, Davante Adams.
27:03I moved Christian Watson, Parker Washington who I'm drinking the Kool-Aid on, and Jameson Williams ahead of him.
27:08I think it's now Terry McLaurin versus DJ Moore, and I think it's pretty tight.
27:13Stefon Diggs for me comes in wide receiver 42, top 100 player. I have him next to Michael Pittman, Xavier Worthy, Jakobi Meyers, Chris
27:23Godwin's a few spots ahead.
27:26Stefon Diggs looked really good last year. That was coming off a knee injury.
27:30Only reason he didn't really put up more numbers cuz the Patriots, they were winning handily and they rotated players trying to keep guys fresh.
27:36It worked out for them. They made the freaking Super Bowl. I'm not critiquing Josh McDaniels for that.
27:42This is going to be tight. I prefer Evans, I prefer Adams, I probably even prefer DJ Moore over Terry McLaurin at
27:49this point. Now, the other side of this is Terry, wide receiver 23, ESPN ADP. Yeah, that's too high for right now, but I also had him
27:58about there before this news happened. I would imagine other people in the public are going to not be feeling so great
28:03about this. They're going to move him down as well. So, as things stand right now on August 5th, I do think based on
28:08his previous ADP, the bust risk for Terry McLaurin is high. I'd say a 9 out of 10.
28:14But, if we do see Terry move down into more of that mid-tier wide receiver three range, yeah, of course, I'm going to lower it.
28:22As always, don't hit the player, hit the ADP. Right now, Terry's ADP is too high, but I would imagine it's going to lower
28:27a little bit and be a little more affordable, hopefully a nice discount for us when we actually do get around to
28:32our fantasy draft. So, again, guys, Terry McLaurin, someone I am a little bit more worried about given the new presence of Stefon Diggs, given the
28:39reality that again, he's going to be 31 in September, and just more years in his career, been more of that upside wide
28:45receiver three. I am a little bit more worried about Emeka Egbuka than I was before. Again, just really trying to think through the overall offensive
28:52upside and the potential reality that Chris Godwin could be eating into some of the targets. That said, Egbuka, where he's going in drafts, I'm not afraid of
29:00him at that range. I do just probably prefer Ladd McConkey, Neighbors, Devonta Smith when it comes down to it. Jaylen Waddle, I see the issues.
29:08I'm still in on Jaylen Waddle. I'm not letting this deter me. Rondale Moore, he's someone I'm consistently not drafting at his ADP. Again, Neighbors,
29:16Devonta Smith, Waddle, those type of guys I'm taking instead.
29:19Justin Jefferson, of course I prefer Justin Jefferson to all these wide receivers we just talked about, but it's not about that. It's do you want to use
29:27a top 10 pick on Justin Jefferson?
29:29I do not. If he gets past the turn, early round two, maybe you just want him at 112, fine, go for it. Just not
29:37convinced we're going to see that quarterback situation improve in a considerable way after we just saw what doomed Jettas last season. But guys,
29:44that's going to wrap up this video. Let me know if you disagree on some of these busts. This might come as a shocker to
29:48you, but I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again. So, happy to again chop it up in the comments. I appreciate
29:53you guys generally being nice, but you know, feel free to not be nice. Tell me I look dumb. Tell me I have a dumb take.
29:58I will be happy to again bark about that there. I always go through and read those and then try to respond as much as
30:02possible as well. So, maybe you liked the video. If you did, please hit that like button. Hitting subscribe always helps us out as well. So, otherwise
30:09guys, really do just enjoy your time here on planet Earth. Life is short and fantasy football is fun, but also always
30:15a good idea to go out there, touch some grass, call your family, and just try to have a great day. So, with that said,
30:20I'm mean hard at it. Thanks again for tuning in until next time. Take care everybody.
