5 Early-Round Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Bust Candidates
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
30 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 7, 2026
Published
Fri, August 7, 2026
25
Player insights
25
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownAaron RodgersBo NixBrady CookBryce YoungChris GodwinCourtland SuttonD.J. MooreDeVonta SmithDrake LondonEmeka EgbukaGarrett WilsonJacoby BrissettJaylen Waddle
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
NegativeUsage17:46
Ian Hartitz notes that DeVonta Smith no longer shares the field with A.J. Brown, which serves as context for target share projections.
Insight pageAaron Rodgers
NegativeProjection3:53
Ian Hartitz uses Aaron Rodgers as a benchmark for low average target depth, noting that Rodgers had a longer average target depth than Kyler Murray during the 2025 season.
Insight pageBo Nix
NegativeProjection17:27
Ian Hartitz notes that while Bo Nix has a strong arm and potential for plays out of structure, his efficiency metrics are concerning, specifically citing his 6.5 yards per attempt over the last two years as being in the company of poor NFL quarterbacks. Hartitz acknowledges the potential for improvement under Sean Payton but notes that Nix has yet to demonstrate that ceiling over a full season.
Insight pageBrady Cook
NegativeProjection3:58
Ian Hartitz identifies Brady Cook as one of the few quarterbacks with a lower average target depth than Kyler Murray during the 2025 season.
Insight pageBryce Young
NegativeProjection12:20
Ian Hartitz expresses significant concern regarding Bryce Young, citing poor efficiency metrics: he ranks 53rd in passing success rate, 55th in yards per attempt, and 50th in sack rate among 59 quarterbacks with at least 30 starts since 2000. RotoWire projects him for 3,184 yards (27th) and 20.6 touchdowns (24th). Hartitz notes that while the Panthers offense is expected to struggle, Young might see more passing volume than Jacoby Brissett, who is at higher risk of being benched.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue20:15
Ian Hartitz views Chris Godwin as a strong value pick in the WR4 range, noting that reports from training camp indicate he has regained his explosive ability following a 2023 ankle injury. Hartitz argues the fantasy community is overstating the gap between Godwin and Emeka Egbuka, and while he acknowledges Godwin is 30, he remains a more reliable option than Egbuka.
Insight pageCourtland Sutton
NegativeUsage17:52
Ian Hartitz identifies Courtland Sutton as a veteran presence who may continue to soak up red zone targets in the Broncos' offense, despite concerns regarding quarterback Bo Nix's efficiency metrics (6.5 yards per attempt over the last two years).
Insight pageD.J. Moore
PositiveValue26:08
Ian Hartitz notes that DJ Moore has historically dealt with poor quarterback play, drawing a comparison to the career track record of Andre Johnson. Despite these challenges, Hartitz now prefers Moore over Terry McLaurin in his updated wide receiver rankings.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveValue15:23
Ian Hartitz identifies DeVonta Smith as a talented player he prefers over Xavier Legette and Terry McLaurin at their respective ADP ranges. While acknowledging Smith is widely viewed as a borderline WR1, Hartitz notes that Jaylen Waddle possesses a higher target ceiling because Waddle is no longer competing for targets with Tyreek Hill, whereas Smith remains in a high-volume passing environment.
Insight pageDrake London
NegativeValue8:42
Ian Hartitz notes that Drake London is currently being drafted early despite having a questionable quarterback situation, with London dealing with Michael Penix Jr. in the mix.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
NegativeProjection15:46
Ian Hartitz highlights Emeka Egbuka as a potential bust candidate (5/10 bust factor) due to his 36th-ranked PPR finish last year and the Buccaneers' projected 18th-ranked offense. Hartitz notes Egbuka's high-end potential when healthy but expresses concern regarding his role, stating he would not be surprised if Chris Godwin outscores him. However, Hartitz also expressed a preference for Egbuka over Godwin in some contexts, citing the potential for target competition to tighten.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
NegativeBust21:04
Ian Hartitz explicitly labels Garrett Wilson as a high-bust candidate, noting that he would have included him in his official bust list if he hadn't already discussed him as a personal favorite elsewhere. Despite finishing as the WR15 last year, Hartitz maintains a high bust rate for Wilson.
Insight pageJacoby Brissett
NegativeDepth Chart13:59
Ian Hartitz suggests Jacoby Brissett is at high risk of being benched, using him as a benchmark for quarterback instability. This potential for a mid-season change could impact the passing volume of the Carolina Panthers offense.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveBreakout17:42
Ian Hartitz is bullish on Jaylen Waddle, ranking him as a top-12 WR and the engine of his passing game. Hartitz assigns a low bust probability (3/10) and expects Waddle to succeed in Sean Payton's scheme, noting he has a higher target ceiling than DeVonta Smith. Hartitz remains invested in Waddle despite acknowledging potential offensive environment risks.
Insight pageJonathan Mingo
NegativeBust7:26
Ian Hartitz identifies Jonathan Mingo as a potential fantasy bust; despite a decent rookie season, he finished only as the WR24 in PPR points per game. Drafting him at his current ESPN WR16 ADP requires a significant leap of faith that both Mingo will improve and the Panthers' offense will become productive.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeBust0:39
Ian Hartitz identifies Justin Jefferson as a potential bust at his current WR6 ADP, noting that while Jefferson is an elite talent, his 2025 WR32 finish was driven by poor quarterback play. Hartitz expresses skepticism that Kyler Murray represents a significant upgrade, citing Murray's low 6.0 yards per attempt (37th of 42) and 6.0 air yards per attempt (43rd of 45) in 2025, and noting that Murray's playstyle does not align with the intermediate, over-the-middle passing game Jefferson needs. Hartitz prefers Jefferson to other wide receivers but is hesitant to use a top-10 pick on him due to these quarterback concerns.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
NegativeUsage26:20
Ian Hartitz highlights that Keenan Allen's established history with Justin Herbert did not prevent him from being out-targeted by rookie Ladd McConkey, signaling a potential shift in target distribution for the Chargers offense.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeProjection3:26
Ian Hartitz questions Kyler Murray's viability as a quarterback, pointing to his 2025 metrics: 6.0 yards per attempt (37th of 42) and 6.0 air yards per attempt (43rd of 45). Hartitz argues that Murray's inability to throw in rhythm over the middle of the field makes him a poor fit for receivers like Justin Jefferson and uses him as a benchmark for low efficiency.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveValue15:23
Ian Hartitz considers Ladd McConkey a very talented player and a preferred draft target over Xavier Legette and Emeka Egbuka. Hartitz emphasizes that McConkey is more talented than Quentin Johnston and has already demonstrated the ability to out-target Keenan Allen, suggesting a significant role in the Chargers' offense.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveValue15:26
Ian Hartitz describes Malik Nabers as an amazing talent and explicitly prefers him over Xavier Legette and Terry McLaurin in drafts.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue27:05
Ian Hartitz is highly optimistic about Parker Washington, stating he is 'drinking the Kool-Aid' on the receiver and has moved him ahead of Terry McLaurin in his updated wide receiver rankings.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue20:57
Ian Hartitz ranks Stefon Diggs as WR42 and emphasizes that he should not be dismissed as a secondary option in his new offense. Diggs has not finished worse than WR25 since 2016 and is viewed as a significant threat to target share in Washington, placing him in a tier with Michael Pittman Jr., Xavier Worthy, and Jakobi Meyers.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
NegativeBust20:51
Ian Hartitz labels Terry McLaurin a high-risk bust candidate (9/10 risk) due to his current ADP, his age (turning 31 in September), and the arrival of Stefon Diggs, who Hartitz considers the best receiver McLaurin has ever shared the field with. This competition threatens McLaurin's target volume and upside for 150+ targets, leading Hartitz to move him behind players like Christian Watson, Parker Washington, and Jameson Williams in his rankings.
Insight pageTyreek Hill
NegativeUsage17:46
Ian Hartitz notes that Jaylen Waddle is no longer playing alongside Tyreek Hill, which is a key factor in his projected target share increase.
Insight pageXavier Legette
NegativeBust9:04
Ian Hartitz labels Xavier Legette a significant bust candidate with an 8/10 bust rate. While acknowledging his talent, Hartitz prefers drafting other wide receivers in that range, specifically naming DeVonta Smith, Ladd McConkey, and Malik Nabers as superior targets. Hartitz explicitly stated he has nothing positive to say about Legette's outlook.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Today I'm going through five wide receivers who currently carry a top 24 ADP over on ESPN, but last season finished wide receiver 24 or worse. And
0:10Vegas currently has their offense ranked among the league's bottom half in terms of their projected scoring. So we're talking about guys who yes are talented
0:18enough to be being drafted inside the top 24 in the first place, but weren't overly productive last year and aren't exactly in an offense we're expecting
0:26fireworks from. So accordingly, not a great combination. I want to go through the glass half full, glass half empty scenario for each and try to determine
0:34whether or not these guys are in fact looking like busts ahead of next season.
0:39Kicking things off with Mr. Justin Jefferson, guys. Currently Vegas has the Vikings offense ranked 20th going to 2026. And we're talking about despite
0:48being one of the best wide receivers on planet Earth, just the reigning wide receiver 32 in PPR points per game. So,
0:56if we did want to try to paint more of a glass half full picture here, it would be getting a quarterback upgrade from JJ
1:01McCarthy to Kyler Murray. I actually went ahead and looked at a full list of these wide receivers changing quarterbacks this off season and found
1:09Justin Jefferson to be one of the biggest beneficiaries in terms of catchable target rate. I even removed screens from this and we can actually
1:16see a plus 9% increase in catchable target rate in terms of what Jefferson was dealing with with JJ McCarthy last year and Kylo what Kylo Murray did in
1:25the first five games again when throwing to his wide receivers. So again like we all agree Justin Jefferson is the absolute man. Leads the NFL in receiving
1:33yards since he entered the league. Leads the NFL in receiving yards since the year before he got into the league. So
1:38that's what we're talking about here.
1:40That's how freaking great Justin Jefferson is. But that didn't stop him from finishing wide receiver 32 last year. And as we get into the glass half
1:48empty picture, are we positive Kyler's gonna be a big upgrade?
1:53We all except Thor. We all hate JJ McCarthy. Just we don't hate him personally. Maybe you do, but we should all be able to agree that he was not a
2:02good quarterback last year. That he was a terrible quarterback last year.
2:06I don't love that this consensus near consensus really really bad quarterback averaged quite a bit more yards per attempt than Kyler Murray guys. Kyler
2:16last year six yards per attempt that ranked 37th among 42 qualified QBs. JJ McCarthy was at 6.7 which ranked 27th.
2:23So, it was also this weird thing where Kyler, not like he's been afraid of throwing downfield in the past, but last
2:30year, man, six air yards per attempt.
2:33That ranked 43rd among 45 qualified quarterbacks. Old man Aaron Rogers had a longer average target depth than Kylo Murray last season, man. Only Dylan
2:42Gabriel and Brady Cook were lower. So, really, really tough company. Some stats, EPA per drop back, paint Kyler a little bit better. you get some of the
2:50rushing stuff in there. But man, when you throw in the caveat too that what we're hoping to get out of Jefferson is
2:57more goodness over the middle of the field. Okay, that's been one of the big callbacks. Sam Darnold finding a way to
3:01get the ball to Jetto's intermediate over the middle areas. That's not really Kyler's game, man. Kyler does a lot of good things well, particularly
3:08offscript, particularly in what he can do running the football, being able to see over that line, throw in rhythm over the middle, not exactly something great.
3:16So, I'm probably not going to be going to war with Jettos. If I did have to go ahead and put myself out there on a limb
3:21and say, "Hey, he's wide receiver six right now in ADP. Should we be expecting that to persist? Should we call him a
3:26bust at that?" I would be leaning more towards bust. But if we have a scale of one being not a bust at all and 10
3:32being, "Oh my god, it's a complete bust.
3:34You got to stay away." I probably settle in around a six or seven out of 10 there. But again, guys, I do more and
3:40more. I look at it and I don't like doing the fantasy alleged expert thing where I'm like, "Oh yeah, I'll get some
3:46exposure to Justin Jefferson. I'm in a lot of leagues. I just feel like it's such a copout." You know, at the end of
3:50the day, we're here to try to give you guys advice and I'm trying to run the numbers and give you the best advice
3:55possible, but going to be wrong and feel free to yell at me when that is the case. Right now, I am leaning towards
4:00Justin Jefferson being more of a bust as a top 10 pick. Not because he's not a great football player, but but because
4:06more so because I do worry that this quarterback situation, which single-handedly doomed him last year, isn't in all that much of a better spot
4:13ahead of 2026. Speaking of some of that fancy advice though, real quick guys, I want to invite you to use code Ian 20 on
4:20any RotoWire subscription. You'll get my expert ranks, you'll get all my articles, you'll get all of our awesome tools, including our lived draft
4:27assistant, including our inseason waiver wire start sit tool. That and so so so much more, guys. So again, if you're planning on just trying to get a little
4:33bit of a leg up, you know, you really want to take it to your friends and family this year, get those bragging
4:38rights, get that championship banner.
4:39Team Rotoire would love to help you out along the way, and you can get 20% off any subscription with code Ian 20. Back
4:46to business. Tedro McMillan also popping up, guys, as a potential bust here. All right, the Panthers offense per Vegas just 26 entering the 2026 season. And
4:55we're talking about a guy who while he had a good rookie season, still just the wide receiver 24 in PPR points per game.
5:01So, you know, when we're having the draft, the guy is the wide receiver 16 on ESPN, we are taking a little bit of a
5:06leap of faith and assuming that he's going to not only improve, but that this Panthers offense is going to be, you
5:11know, actually good at football. But hey, glass half full for a second. He's obviously a really good football player.
5:17And it's not like there's other It's not like there's not other wide receivers going even earlier in the drafts that maybe don't have the cleanest
5:22quarterback situation. All right, Drake London, he's dealing with two Michael Penn and also Nico Collins with CJ Strad, someone who has been better than
5:30Bryce Young generally throughout the careers, but obviously isn't without his warts as well. So quarterback situation leaves a bit to be desired obviously,
5:37but Jaylen Coker really only the other the only other show in town. Chris Brazzle now out for the season already.
5:44I have nothing nice to say about Xavier Leot, so I'm not going to say anything at all. No tight ends to speak of. Tedro
5:51McMillan, man, that wide receiver 24 mark as a rookie, not bad at all. And there were so many plays literally started in week one where he just he
5:59would catch the ball and barely miss getting the second foot down or there's a tickytac OPI call at the end of the
6:04year. I track all this stuff in this shish report which I cannot wait to unveil again this year. Kind of like the
6:09beyond the box score metrics that you'll see if you watch the games maybe won't catch in the box score.
6:15T-Mac was up there with the freaking most near miss opportunities at the position last year. So 150 plus targets seem to
6:23be on the table. Maybe Bryce Young is ready to make a mini leap. Not a short joke, I swear. I do think Tedro
6:29McMillan, you can argue the bull cases there's not that big of a difference between him and guys like Nico Collins or Drake London. The glass half empty is
6:38realistically this passing game is probably going to suck, guys. And do we really want to invest a top 16 wide receiver pick on
6:45the lead dog in a passing game we expect to suck. Bryce Young, let's be nice for a second, throws a great deep ball. Look
6:52at the passing efficiency metrics. All these advanced stats when he's throwing the ball 20 plus yards downfield, they're going to tell you he's one of
6:58the better quarterbacks at doing so. I think the eye test adds up, man. Throws a very catchable deep ball. Nice loft
7:04underneath it. Again, that is the strength of his game. Also, the dude's kind of Houdini in the pocket sometimes, man. when he's able to move around like
7:11that was a superpower at Bama. Now, took him a little bit to get adjusted in the NFL. He's obviously not a guy with, you
7:18know, outstanding physical tools in terms of his height, in terms of his speed, size, and all that, but even then was able to run around a lot last year.
7:25Had some big plays against the Seahawks and even Rams down the stretch where again you saw what he could do with his
7:29legs, extending plays, finding ways to get the ball out the last second. At his best, he throws a real nice deep ball
7:35and he can't be shifting in the pocket.
7:38That was me being nice.
7:40The problem I have with Bryce Young is that pretty much every stat that we use to try to evaluate quarterbacks says he
7:47sucks. Here's Bryce's rank among 59 quarterbacks during their first three seasons since 2000. Minimum 30 starts.
7:56Out of 59 quarterbacks, he's 53rd in passing success rate. He's 55th in yards per attempt. He's 50th in yards per game. He's 47th in touchdown rate, 41st
8:05in passer rating, 50th in sack rate.
8:09Even the passer rating, man. Like 41st.
8:12I just got done listing all the mid50 numbers. Sounds okay. That's still bad.
8:17Rotoire projections, which you can check out on rotoire.com. They have Bryce 3,184 yards, 27th, 20.6 touchdowns as 24th.
8:27Maybe you think those are low.
8:31I don't think you disagree though, that if we had to rank all 32 starting quarterbacks, particularly teamwide, you know what I'm saying? saying like we
8:39still expect the Arizona Cardinals to throw for more yards than the Panthers even if Bryce maybe throws some more than Jacobe because Jacobe could get
8:45benched first.
8:47It's really rough guys.
8:50Brad Idzick has taken over the play calling for Dave Canales. He was you know maybe that's going to lead to a new
8:57found leap.
9:00Could have been would have been a lot cooler if we had extra gyms and Joe's to make this offense better. Man, I like
9:05Jaylen Coker as much as next Cokehead.
9:08Tedro McMillan's really good, but man, they've never been able to get the tight ends involved.
9:15I tried to defend Brazil. He's out of the picture, so it doesn't even matter.
9:18So, I get to this range and I look at Tedro McMillan and I say he's a really good wide receiver. I do believe in his
9:23talent. I also think Lad McConi is a really good talent. I also think Devonte Smith is a really good talent. I think
9:29Malik Neighbors is an amazing talent.
9:32I'm drafting all those guys over Tedro McMillan. I have not made a habit of drafting this dude. If we can get a
9:36quarterback upgrade in Carolina or if Bryce Young finds a way to be really good at football, I'll obviously be wrong. This is a bus though that I am
9:43going to generally agree with. I will go an eight out of 10 bust rate for Mr.
9:46McMillan. Next up, we have a Mecca Ibuka. Guys, again, these are not necessarily guys I'm saying are going to bust, but I'm saying based on how they
9:54finished last year and based on how their offense is being projected to finish this year, we should at least be trying to be aware of it. All right?
10:01because it's been nothing but love for a Mecha Ibuka and yet he finished last year ranked 36th in PPR points per game
10:06and the Buccaneers offense going into 2026 ranks just 18th per the men in the desert. So glass half full though would
10:13be what I did in the first six weeks particularly first five weeks of last season. Wide receiver three overall behind only Puka and Amra St. Brown in
10:21weeks one through five 102.4 PPR points during those first five games. The only other receivers to ever surpass that mark, Puka Nakua and Randy Freaking
10:31Moss.
10:33There was the long Eagles play where, you know, Baker threaded it between two dudes. They ran into each other, took off. Some of the separation wasn't
10:42amazing, but I don't know. You also watch the Seahawks game. He's running a nasty out and up and catching a 60-yard
10:48bat, 60-yard pass, getting tackle at the one yard line. Two touchs in the season opener. I mean, I don't think I Buuka
10:55necessarily looked like a top three wide receiver in the NFL. Like, I think his fancy numbers were a little bit inflated
11:00early on, but man, he still looked really freaking good out there, guys.
11:03So, no more Mike Evans, Ibuka. We're hearing from Zack Robinson and the kind of brass over in Tampa Bay right now
11:09that he is going to be their version of Cooper Cup, which I know is annoying for people like me to always be saying that
11:14because it kind of implies that Cooper Cup isn't just amazing in his own right.
11:18But hey, my colleague over here at team Rotoire, Theo Greinger, said it nice. A Mecca Apuka makes you think, guys.
11:26Really does make you think. So, he is projected and the favorite to lead this offense in targets. So, even if the
11:32offense isn't incredible, would still expect that to yield some good results for a fantasy land. And if we did Benjamin Button his rookie season,
11:39certainly would be feeling a lot better about a guy breaking out down the stretch. And oh yeah, why did he not do
11:43better down the stretch? Because he suffered the hamstring injury, which again made life that much tougher on him. Great stat from Ben Solic over
11:49ESPN. Amecha Iabuka last year had 11 routes of at least 18 miles per hour in his first five weeks of the year. Then
11:56he had the hamstring injury. Only 11 such routes in the remaining 12 weeks combined. So again, you can see it with
12:02your own eyes. We can see it with the numbers from NextGen stats. Clearly he was compromised. When he wasn't compromised, legit high on wide receiver
12:09one in fantasy land. So that's the glass half full.
12:13Glass half empty.
12:15The rest of last season happened and we are probably overstating the difference between him and Chris Goblin who is a long time man been an awesome fantasy
12:25receiver. In fact, the last time we saw Chris Goblin healthy to start a season, what' he do? He worked as the overall
12:31wide receiver too behind Le Jamar Chase in 2024. Funny how we forget that so quickly. You know what I'm saying? And
12:37why did Godwin not do great last year?
12:39Well, he was coming back from a freaking horrific dislocated ankle injury.
12:43Reports out of training camp. Goblin looks like he's got his explosive ability back. He is getting up there.
12:48He's 30 years old at this point. But man, when we look at some of the discrepancies between the really highly ranked wide receivers and the other
12:56guys, I don't have the same conviction here. All right. Lad Mcconi versus Quinton Johnson. I think we can all
13:06agree Lad's the much more talented player. All right. Not that QJ can't do his thing, but Puka vers Dvonte Adams at
13:12this point. Obviously, Puka, Justin Jefferson versus Jordan Asen. Again, Asen's really good. He's not Justin Jefferson.
13:19Out of all those, even Chris, Jordan Tyson, I'd say that one's actually tight tighter. Disregard that one.
13:27Out of those, I think we can agree a Mecha Ibuka, Chris Goblin. We would be far less surprised if we look up in week
13:3314. It's like, oh, Goblin's outscoring a Mecha Ibuka this year. Goblin's an issue.
13:41Maybe Jaylen McMillan, Ted Hurst, TZ Johnson, maybe these guys could be issues. I do think IU is going to have a
13:47full-time role. He was rotating with Jaylen McMillan down the stretch of last year. Now, that was with Mike Evans in town. Mike Evans is no longer there. I
13:55think it had to do with the injury, but we don't know for sure.
13:59Additionally, 2024 more and more guys, if you asked someone who's never watched or played football before, doesn't know anything, but they know stats. If you
14:09just told them, showed them Baker Mayfield's career numbers yearbyear, they would say 2024 is an outlier. Now, Baker was incredible in the first six
14:18weeks of last year, and he has his own injuries to worry about. That again, took him down a notch. But again, the
14:23complimentary target competition is higher than I think a lot of other wide receivers in this range. We have a good quarterback.
14:30I think we can probably agree, not a great one. And we have a player who, yes, was banged up last year, but man,
14:38we got a long way to go from wide receiver 36 to where he's being drafted right now, which is wide receiver 18.
14:44All that said, I'm still more willing to buy here. This is a first round pick who broke the freaking Ohio State record for
14:52receptions. second-year player, just very capable of being the Z receiver in the Zack Robinson offense. I think just eating up receptions. So, Goblin is 30
15:02at this point. I think Goblin's a fine click where he goes in that wide receiver four range. All right, good value there. I will admit, I've been
15:12taking Makoni over a mecha Ibuka. I've been taking Jaylen Waddle over a Mecha Ibuka, Malik Neighbors, Devonte Smith,
15:22Zay Flowers is close.
15:25So, I do prefer some guys, but to say IA is a major bus risk, I would push back on that. But again, some very real
15:34questions here for Mecha Iabuka, I'd say probably a five out of 10 on the bust factor here. Up next in our potential
15:41bust watch, Jaylen Wadd, guys. Yeah, Jaylen Lle, the guy I can't stop drafting, the guy I got ranked inside my top 12, he did pop here. 2026 Denver
15:52Broncos projected offensive rank per Vegas 21st. Waddles rank in 2025, even with Tyreek Hill being out for most of the season, just the wide receiver 29
16:04in PPR points per game. So again, he fits our criteria of being in a bottom half offense per Vegas and also being
16:11someone who couldn't finish better than wide receiver 24 last year. Now the glass half full for Waddle, I'll try to keep it short because I go on about this
16:18dude seemingly every single show, but he's the wide receiver one for an offense that just had Bo Knicks, Boing Knicks, lead the NFL in pass attempts.
16:28Speaking of Bo Freaking Knicks, maybe he takes a step forward. It's legal. We've seen young quarterbacks get this sort of insertion early in their career and all
16:37of a sudden really become great. Jayon Hurst with AJ Brown, Cal Murray with DeAndre Hopkins, Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs to himself with Tyreek Hill.
16:46Adding someone like Jaylen Waddle who can change the way defenses have to defend this offense based on his speed and field stretching ability really
16:54could make life that much better for Bo Knicks. The entire offense and accordingly their number one wide receiver which is Jaylen Waddle. We have
17:01seen backtoback to start his career top 15 seasons in PPR points per game. And like my thing is we all accept
17:09Devonte Smith as this now borderline wide receiver one in fans. Most people are at least. What's the huge difference here? Is it just Jayen Herz being that
17:19much better than Bon Knicks? I agree Herz is better than Bon Knicks. But pure passing, getting the ball their wide receivers, I think we could agree it's
17:27closer. Maybe you want to give Bon Knicks the edge at a minimum. All the pass game volume that we have in Denver
17:34over Philly. Give Hertz a little more efficiency than Bon Knick's fine with the extra volume being afforded. I mean, Waddle, in my opinion, has a much higher
17:42target ceiling than what Devonte Smith has. Devonte no longer is next to AJB.
17:46Wadd is no longer next to Tyreek Hill.
17:50Mai Lemon first round pick in Philly.
17:52Quoting Sutton, older veteran guy endeavor. I don't think there's that big of a difference there. So Shawn Peyton, one of the brightest offensive minds of
18:00the 21st century. I don't think that's up for debate. Jaylen Waddles is wide receiver one. Everything we hear about training camp is the offense is going
18:07through him. Playing a lot out of the slot. A lot of reason for optimism. But again, we're talking about potential bust for a reason. In the glass half
18:14empty case is he couldn't get it done last year without Tyreek Hill. And this offense, maybe it's more meh than great.
18:24I look at these Vegas offensive ranks as a directional idea. I don't make it the basis of everything I believe about
18:32life.
18:3321st feels low for me. I would not rank the Broncos 21st. That said, would I rank him in the top 10? I don't
18:43think so. Broncos offense going to next season deserves to be closer to 16 than one. I think we can agree on that.
18:51So if Jaylen Waddle is the number one wide receiver for an offense, that's more good than great. That still has Corin Sutton around to maybe soak up
19:01red zone touchdowns. That has a guy in Bon Knicks who, yeah, led the league in passing attempts last year, couldn't crack 4,000 yards. That's pretty
19:10damning. 6.5 yards per attempt over his last two years. That's not good company to be keeping. I talked about it with
19:17Kyler and JJ McCarthy. When you're 6.5 or fewer yards per attempt, guys, you're seeing a lot of really, really bad quarterbacks. I don't think Boon Knicks
19:24is a bad quarterback. He hasn't exactly been surrounded by a bunch of diamonds here in this offense. And now he's got
19:29one in Jaylen Wadd, at least in my Yeah, kind of biased opinion because I'm drafting this dude a lot, but I'm trying
19:34to, you know, cut through that.
19:38I think the Broncos offense will be better, but what if it's not? What if Bick's coming off the ankle is a little
19:42bit hobbled? What if even adding Jaylen Waddle to the situation doesn't help Bo Knicks really improve from just objectively being one of the lesser
19:49efficient passers in the NFL? I saw the Packers game down the stretch, even the playoff game against the Bills. We've seen the high ceiling there. Bon Knicks
19:57has a cannon that bomb against the Bengals, Marvin Mims, he can make plays out of structure. There's a ceiling here for Bon Knicks attached to Shawn Peyton
20:06adding someone like Jaylen Wadd, but we simply haven't seen that ceiling over the course of an entire season yet.
20:12Broncos very much ran hot in one-score games last year. Maybe they're not going to be as good. Maybe we'll see some ugly
20:1816 to 13 rock fights with that defense and all of a sudden it's just not the best offensive environment to be around.
20:24That said, when it comes time for our bus meter, I'm going three out of 10 here, guys. I just think that difference in target
20:31competition is huge, and we're going to see Wadd for the first time featured as the engine of his passing game, for the
20:38first time since his rookie year. And the big thing for me too is the difference between that rookie year and then what we saw happen with Mike
20:44McDaniel. When Mike McDaniel came to town, Waddle was just winning with these again. Big huge plays, runs after the catch, man. That uh Christmas Day game
20:51against the Packers, him just running away from the entire defense. Year one, it really wasn't that. His yards per catch like doubled from year one to year
21:00two. They just had nothing going in that offense and they just basically centered the whole thing around feeding the ball Jaylen Wadd. And guess what? He did
21:07great. He racked up a bunch of short catches and he was very adept at doing that. I think we're going to see a
21:13combination of those this year and a very well schemed Shawn Peyton Davis Web attack with a young ascending quarterback and Boon Knicks playing the
21:22best football of his career.
21:25I'm excited for Jaylen Waddle, but I will say this type of stuff a little bit concerning there. And hey, maybe there's
21:31a reason why people are drafting Waddle a little bit closer to that wide receiver two line, whereas myself, you know, I'm leaning more into that wide
21:37receiver one hype there. But Jaylen Wadd someone where no, I do not think he is going to bust this year, but certainly
21:43has at least a few a few few red flags that if he does bust, we can go back this year and say, "Oh, right." So, last
21:51guy I want to talk about, scary Terry Mcccluren, guys. And hey, this I put this together even before the Stefon Dicks trade, but we not trade, but
22:00signing. We'll talk about him in a second. 2026 Washington Commanders.
22:04Vegas has them 16th in scoring. So just on the edge here, you know, technically top half. Garrett Wilson, by the way,
22:11just missed this because he finished 15th last year, but it was also a shortened season. So could have added Garrett Wilson, but I've already talked
22:19about him as one of my faves this year anyway. So yeah, spoiler if you do want if you did want to include Garrett
22:24Wilson, I would have a very high bust rate for Garrett Wilson.
22:27Terry McLaren probably not as high, but it's not exactly this, you know, case closed scenario. 16th ranked offense.
22:36Last year he finished 37th in PPR points per game at the position. Now a lot of that was catching passes from Marcus
22:41Mariota. Didn't get a chance to play much for Jaden Daniels. He had the early season injury stemming from the contract dispute. It was not a clean season. We
22:49go back in the glass half full scenario, 2024, best quarterback play of Terry McLaren's career. What'd he do? He caught 13 touchdowns, man. He was
22:58fantastic. Wide receiver, 14, 15.8 PPR points per game. The only show in town, and it didn't matter. They couldn't stop it. Jaden Daniels was really freaking
23:08good. Terry McLaren was really freaking good. Match made in heaven. We saw this borderline wide receiver one season. We now get a healthy Jaden Daniels.
23:19We get David Blow, David Blau. He's been in this organization. He was the assistant quarterback coach, maybe the assistant to the quarterback coach last
23:27season. They want to do more under center stuff. They want to do more play action. They want to move Terry McLaren
23:31around more, not be so stationary in the Cliff Kingsberry offense. You know what I'm saying?
23:37The glass half full view for Terry McLaren is that he's a really good receiver who produced really good results in his one year with a really
23:42good quarterback. And now we are actually going to see him moved around the formation more for the first time that he's also had those other variables
23:49on his side. Glass half empty scenario is yeah I think he'll see less double teams with Stefon Diggs around. I also think
23:59his chances of getting 150 plus targets took a hit.
24:03I talked before about Ibuka vers Godwin compared to Jefferson versus Addison compared to, you know, CD versins.
24:12That's a closer one.
24:14I got to do something where I just kind of again compare all these wide receiver one, wide receiver twos and be like, who
24:19where do we have the confidence scale with them?
24:22I'll say this, Terry McLaren versus Stefon Diggs, I think it's a lot closer to a Bua and Goblin than I do it is to Jefferson and
24:31Addison in terms of who could actually be the wide receiver one like in our surprise for that.
24:38McLaren and the quarterbacks have been horrible. Him and DJ Moore, man, God bless him. I don't think either has been as good as Andre Johnson, but like you
24:47look at Andre Johnson's quarterbacks throughout his career. McLaren and DJ Moore, just their track record similar.
24:54Terry, those quarterbacks be damned.
24:56He's more so been an upside wide receiver three throughout most of his career. 2019 he was a wide receiver 29.
25:03Then he was a wide receiver 20 31 23 36 14 in 2024 34 last season.
25:12He's done this generally as the only wide receiver worth a damn in his offense. Stefon Diggs is objectively the best wide receiver we have ever seen
25:20Terry McClure and have to share the field with. We had an old Debo last year, rookie year Jan Dawson was a hell
25:26of a drug. I'm an Ohio State guy, so I'll sit here and defend Curtis Samuel until my, you know, cheeks are even
25:30redder than they usually are. But man, Zack Z was a number two target on that 2024 Commanders team.
25:38So, yeah, Diggs should take away some attention, but he's also going to be a candidate to get triple digit targets.
25:47And I think that loss in overall target upside, I'm just not convinced we're going to see that gap made up for an
25:54overall efficiency.
25:57You might disagree. I get it. But Stefon Diggs is really good, man. Has not finished worse Stefon Diggs than wide receiver 25 since Obama was in office.
26:07It's a long time ago, man. Not to get all political on you guys. I don't think it's 100 zero. Terry leads the way in
26:12targets like we just saw. Different situation, but what would you have said last year the chances this time? Like what would
26:20you have thought the chances were that Keenan Allen would out target Lab Makoni? Because that happened.
26:27And I know Herbert had a history with Keenan, but man, just because it's a later signing doesn't mean Diggs is someone who we can
26:36dismiss as not leading the offense, but being pretty freaking involved, man. So, I've updated my ranks. Of course, I still prefer
26:46Tara McLaren, Stefon Diggs, but I prefer Mecha Iabuka to Chris Goblin. I just think again the chances of them being a
26:53little bit tighter, they matter, man. I moved Terry McLaren down before I had him right there in Mike Evans, Devonte Adams. I moved Christian Watson, Parker
27:05Washington who I'm drinking the Kool-Aid on, and Jameson Williams ahead of him. I think it's now Terry McLaren versus DJ Moore. I think it's pretty tight.
27:13Stefon Diggs for me comes in wide receiver 42, top 100 player. I have him next to Michael Pitman, Xavier Worthy, Jacobe Meyers, Chris Gobins a few spots
27:24ahead.
27:26Stefon Diggs looked really good last year. That was coming off a knee injury.
27:30Only reason they didn't really put up more numbers because the Patriots, they were winning handily and they rotated players trying to keep guys fresh. It
27:36worked out for them. They made the freaking Super Bowl. I'm not critiquing Josh McDaniels for that.
27:42This is going to be tight. I prefer Evans. I prefer Adams. I probably even prefer DJ Moore over Terry McLaren at
27:49this point. Now, the other side of this is Terry, wide receiver 23, ESPN. Yeah, that's too high for right now, but I
27:58also had him about there before this news happened. I would imagine other people in the public are going to not be
28:02feeling so great about this. They're going to be moving him down as well. So, as things stand right now on August 5th,
28:07I do think based on his previous ADP, the bus risk for Terry McLaren is high.
28:12I'd say a nine out of 10.
28:14But if we do see Terry move down into more of that mid-tier wide receiver three range, yeah, of course I'm going
28:22to lower it. As always, don't hit the player, hit the ADP. Right now, Terry's ADP is too high, but I would imagine
28:27it's going to lower a little bit and be a little more affordable. Hopefully, a nice discount for us when we actually do
28:31get around to our fantasy draft. So again guys, Terry McLaren someone I am a little more worried about given the new
28:37presence of Stefon Diggs given the reality that again he's going to be 31 in September and just more years in his
28:43career been more of that upside wide receiver three. I am a little more worried about Mecca Ibuka than I was before. Again just really trying to
28:50think through the overall offensive upside and the potential reality that Chris Goplin could be eaten into some of the targets. That said, IA where he's
28:58going in drafts, I'm not afraid of him at that range. I do just probably prefer Lad Mcconi neighbors Devonte Smith when
29:04it comes down to it. Jaylen Wadd, I see the issues. I'm still in on Jaylen Wadd.
29:09I'm not letting this uh deter me. Ted McMillan, he's someone I'm consistently not drafting at his ADP. Again, neighbors, Devonte Smith, Wadd, those
29:17type of guys I'm taking instead. Justin Jefferson, of course, I prefer Justin Jefferson to all these wide receivers we just talked about. But it's not about
29:25that. It's do you want to use a top 10 pick on Justin Jefferson? I do not. If he gets past a turn early round two,
29:33maybe you just want him at 112. Fine, go for it. Just not convinced we're going to see that quarterback situation improve in a considerable way after we
29:40just saw the Doom Jetas last season. But guys, that's going to wrap up this video. Let me know if you disagree on
29:46some of these busts. This might come as a shocker to you, but I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again. So,
29:51happy to again chop it up in the comments. I appreciate you guys generally being nice, but you know, feel free to not be nice. Tell me I look
29:56dumb. Tell me I have a dumb take. I will be happy to again bark about that there.
30:00I always go through and read those and then try to respond as much as possible as well. So maybe you liked the video.
30:04If you did, please hit that like button.
30:06Hitting subscribe always helps us out as well. So otherwise guys, really do just enjoy your time here on planet Earth.
30:12Life is short and fantasy football is fun, but also always a good idea to go out there, touch some grass, call your
30:18family, and just try to have a great day. So with that said, I'm Ian Heritage. Thanks again for tuning in.
30:22Until next time, take care everybody.
