Week 1 Fantasy Football Reactions: Breakouts, Busts & Who to Trust

Alec Pierce is a vital asset for the Colts' offense, recording 4 catches on 6 targets for 61 yards against a tough Ravens defense. He maintained a deep role with a 17.8 aDOT and 54% of the team's air yards, alongside a 67% route participation rate. Ian Hartitz suggests treating him as his usual self moving forward, noting he is no longer a concern regarding his health or snap counts, with potential for 85-90% route participation.

Ian Hartitz notes that the return of Alvin Kamara to the lineup complicates the New Orleans backfield, negatively impacting the fantasy outlook for Travis Etienne, who faces a three-way rotation with Kendre Miller (39% of carries) and CJ Donaldson (9% of carries). Etienne's early-down and receiving work is threatened by this crowded backfield.

Amon-Ra St. Brown was a focal point of the Lions' passing attack, recording 10 catches for 67 yards on 14 targets, including two touchdown receptions.

Bucky Irving impressed with 20.3 fantasy points, a 62% snap share, 53% of team carries, and a 61% route share. He recorded 8 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown, plus 7 catches for 48 yards (26% target share). The usage pattern appears to be a rotation of two drives for Irving to one for Kenneth Gainwell.

Cade Otton recorded 26 yards on a 19% target share and 86% route share. Ian Hartitz advises only starting him if the rest of the receiving corps is injured.

Chase Brown is the primary back in the Bengals' offense, handling 73% of snaps and 64% of rushing attempts. He secured 100% of snaps inside the five-yard line and a 60% route participation rate, signaling he has moved past Samaje Perine for high-leverage work. He offers 20-plus touch potential and RB1 upside.

Chris Godwin played 89% of snaps but was utilized in a shallow role with a 0.3 aDOT, resulting in 8.3 fantasy points. While he showed physical ability after the catch, he needs to work further downfield to improve his fantasy output.

Chris Olave recorded 182 yards on 13 targets with 87 unrealized air yards, showing massive upside. He maintained an 89% route participation rate despite three trips to the medical tent and a 25% target share. Olave is performing at a high level, continuing a strong streak from the end of last season where he posted multiple high-yardage and multi-touchdown games.

CJ Donaldson is part of a three-way backfield rotation in New Orleans, accounting for 9% of carries and 11% of routes in Week 1, further diluting the backfield workload.

Ian Hartitz admits he was wrong for recommending Colston Loveland as a draft target, noting that his performance in the first week did not meet expectations.

DJ Moore is noted for having deep defensive pass interference penalties that are not fully captured in standard average depth of target (aDOT) metrics.

Derrick Henry remains a dominant force, recording three touchdowns and 35.5 fantasy points while maintaining a 55% snap share and 77% of the team's carries.

Devaughn Vele earned 19.9 fantasy points with a 94% pass play participation rate and a 17% target share. While he looked good attacking downfield, he primarily worked underneath with a 7.8 aDOT. He is a recommended play, though expectations should be tempered as his opportunity is currently elevated by the absence of Jordan Tyson.

Emeka Egbuka led the team with an 11.3 fantasy point performance, a 22% target share, and a 14-yard average depth of target, accounting for 66% of the team's air yards.

Despite participating in 78% of routes, Isaac TeSlaa commanded only a 3% target share, indicating he has not been earning targets, according to Dwayne McFarland.

Ja'Marr Chase disappointed fantasy managers with only 3.2 fantasy points, despite maintaining a 97% route participation rate, due to a low 11% target share.

Jahmyr Gibbs dominated the Lions' backfield with 33.6 PPR points, 156 rushing yards, two rushing TDs, and 30 receiving yards. Dwayne McFarland highlights his elite usage: 91% of rushing attempts, 73% of snaps, and a 51% route share, noting there is currently no one to challenge his workload. McFarland also cites Bijan Robinson's performance as a comparison point to justify why Gibbs was the clear 1.01 pick in fantasy drafts.

Jalen McMillan was absent for the game, which directly led to Ted Hurst stepping into an increased role with 83% of the routes.

Jameson Williams saw significant usage with nine targets, a 23% target share, and 95% route participation. Ian Hartitz remains unconcerned about his 8.5-point fantasy output, noting he had 85 unrealized air yards, suggesting positive regression is likely in future weeks.

Jared Goff completed 26 of 39 passes (67%) for 5.3 yards per attempt. Dwayne McFarland notes the Lions only threw the ball 55% of the time due to an early lead, suggesting better passing games are ahead.

Joe Burrow finished with 254 passing yards and a touchdown, though he struggled with a bad pick-six and an offense that appeared out of sync. While he operated under center on 30% of plays—a slight increase from his career norm—the team utilized play-action on only 12% of snaps despite offseason expectations.

Jonathan Taylor remains the central focal point of the Colts' offense, delivering a strong Week 1 performance with over 120 total yards and two rushing touchdowns. Ian Hartitz notes that the team effectively funnels production through him, and his commitment to the run, even in trailing game scripts, provides a solid fantasy floor.

Josh Downs saw elite usage with 94% route participation, including 100% of routes in 12 personnel sets. While he recorded two receptions for 37 yards on the opening drive, Ian Hartitz notes his 14% target share is lower than Keenan Allen's 21%. His fantasy outlook is complicated by his 5'8, 170 lb frame, which limits his downfield upside, and the target competition from Keenan Allen in the underneath/intermediate areas.

Justice Hill serves as the primary backup to Derrick Henry, recording 44% of snaps and a 55% route participation rate, though he only produced 3.8 fantasy points.

Juwan Johnson is locked in as an every-down tight end, posting an elite 86% route share in Week 1. He recorded 14.4 fantasy points despite a 13% target share and maintains top-12 potential while Jordan Tyson remains sidelined.

Keenan Allen remains a significant factor in the Colts' offense, commanding a 21% target share despite a 77% route share. Ian Hartitz views him as a potential 'buzzkill' for the target shares of Josh Downs and Tyler Warren, as his size and blocking ability make him a preferred option in heavy personnel packages, effectively acting as an extra mouth to feed.

Kendre Miller saw more usage than expected in Week 1, splitting carries equally with Travis Etienne at 39% of attempts, which negatively impacts Etienne's fantasy floor.

Kenneth Gainwell maintained a significant role in the backfield rotation, logging a 46% snap share. The current usage pattern indicates a rotation of one drive for Gainwell for every two drives for Bucky Irving.

Lamar Jackson looked healthy and explosive, reminiscent of his MVP form, finishing with 324 passing yards on 25 attempts. Ian Hartitz highlights his ability to break out of pressure and his improved speed compared to the end of last season.

Mark Andrews maintained a solid 79% route share and 25% target share. While his production was modest (4 catches, 49 yards), Ian Hartitz views him as a primary target who may become the center of the passing game given the injuries to other receivers. He looked okay, though not in his prime form.

Mike Gesicki scored 18.8 fantasy points, though Ian Hartitz notes his route participation was only 46%, suggesting he remains part of a tight end rotation similar to previous Bengals seasons.

Rasheen Ali is currently the third-string running back for the Ravens and did not record any touches in the recent game.

Despite playing 90% of routes, Rashod Bateman failed to produce fantasy points. Ian Hartitz notes the lack of production is frustrating, as Bateman failed to record a catch even when other receivers like Zay Flowers were sidelined.

Samaje Perine is the clear backup to Chase Brown, handling 20% of rushing attempts. He is no longer sniping high-leverage snaps inside the five-yard line, which were exclusively handled by Brown.

Sione Vaki served as the backup running back for the Lions in the absence of PCO, who is currently on IR.

Ted Hurst stepped in for the absent Jalen McMillan, logging an 83% route share while primarily running intermediate and deep routes.

Tee Higgins is cited as an example of a player who experienced high unrealized air yards, indicating potential for future yardage regression.

Travis Etienne's fantasy outlook is concerning due to a three-way backfield rotation involving Kendre Miller and CJ Donaldson, combined with the impending return of Alvin Kamara, which threatens his early-down and receiving work. Ian Hartitz notes his outlook is diminished compared to his pre-game RB12/RB13 ranking.

Trey Palmer stepped in for the absent Jalen McMillan, running routes on 83% of plays, though he saw limited targets while operating in intermediate and deep roles. Ian Hartitz and Dwayne discuss the potential for Palmer to rotate more into the offense alongside Ted Hurst.

Tyler Warren posted an elite 91% route participation rate in Week 1 and scored a touchdown. Ian Hartitz identifies him as his preferred Colts player to bet on outside of Jonathan Taylor, citing his status as a second-year first-round pick and 'YAC monster' potential, despite target competition from Keenan Allen.

Zay Flowers was the engine of the Ravens' passing game, recording 150 yards and a touchdown in the first half before a hamstring injury. During his five drives, he saw a 79% route share and 46% target share. Despite the hamstring issue limiting his practice time, Ian Hartitz notes he looked amazing, though he plans to be conservative with projections for the upcoming week.