0:00dropping bold fantasy football predictions for week 2. Theo Ginger right here at Rotoire joined every week by Jacob Gibbs of Beyond the Box score.
0:08Jacob, last week we had an absolute blast, but we we didn't deliver too many uh correct takes. I'll say my Lamar
0:15Jackson sigh of relief game. Uh that that was a take that I think was was pretty strong. Um but I had a couple of
0:21misses here. Um a couple of glaring misses. Uh Jamar Chase, where you at, man? Jamar Chase, I said 15 targets and
0:28it certainly wasn't 15 targets, but we'll own our L's. But this week, we're going to bring the heat. We're going to
0:33drop some really strong takes here.
0:35You've got a Harold Fannon Jr. one right off the top rope. Some people are nervous about Harold Fannon Jr. right now. The the target share was sub 15%.
0:45Um, a lot of uh bad stuff going on in Cleveland, but you are holding out hope for our guy Harold Fannon Jr.
0:51>> I think that I got the Isaiah likely take on this show. Is that right or is that mine?
0:55>> Okay. I I I I gotta walk it back. Isaiah Likely, you were spot on. You You were all over the Isaiah Likely one. Isaiah
1:02Likely, eight targets, eight catches, two touchdown catches. Jacob Jacob, you saved the day with that one. So Lamar Jackson and Isaiah Likely, we were
1:09pretty good, but we want to hit We want to hit a higher average right now. And and I'll say your Jawan Johnson take, it
1:15was a slow first three quarters, but he did end up catching up at the end. Uh so that was not like a like a zero there.
1:21Uh what a game from from Detroit, New Orleans. And what a game last night.
1:25We're recording this on Friday morning.
1:27Um what a way to start out the fantasy week to have that Buffalo Detroit game with all those points scored and we got
1:34the garbage time touchdown at the end for mom and Ross St. Brown. But that's not going to be the only game that
1:39that's going to have some points on the board this week. But one team that we have to kind of lower expectations for,
1:44Cleveland Browns. But let's talk about our guy Harold Fannon Jr. should he be in starting lineups this week? Yeah, I'm I'm sticking it out with Fannon. I think
1:51Fannon, my hot take is that this week Carol Fannon's going to show everybody who he is. He's going to remind everybody who he is. Um feels like
1:57people have kind of forgotten or ready to give up on him after one week. And it's like Titans have down weeks,
2:02especially when they're on the Browns.
2:04Like I get that there was a lot of fear around Fannon going into the year um for a number of reasons. And so to see in
2:11week one him come out with a dud and not get a lot of targets feels like confirmation of that fear um as being
2:18correct, but like really it's just one game and we don't know if that's actually the case. If it is correct, would it surprise anybody? If Fannon had
2:25a 30% target share in week two, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Um the guy is unbelievable. Like we have so many
2:33reasons to believe that he's one of the best talents in the tight end position in the NFL. Uh, so we've got a softer
2:39matchup here in week two. Um, that I think could result in a lot of catch and run opportunities for Fan. I think that
2:45they're probably going to be playing from behind throughout this game against Tampa Bay. Um, so I am I'm going back and starting Phantom with confidence.
2:53Um, there's not really a whole lot at tight end that I feel great about necessarily. Like I do have Dallas Goddard ranked ahead of him. Um, but
3:03even that it's like couldn't you see the Eagles getting up early and just not needing to pass at all? Like there's
3:08really tight end is really hit or miss for me basically is is my sentiment here. And so a player that I know on any
3:14given play can break several tackles and create a long play is interesting to me and that's what I think we have with
3:22Fannon. I have him ranked just behind Tucker Craft who is is a similar type of player in my mind. Craft obviously has
3:27more speed to create these breakaway plays, but you're relying on Yak a lot with this player. And one key distinction is that Fannon is a
3:34full-time player right now, whereas Craft is still being eased in. Um, so I haven't been tied in nine. I think he
3:38could push even higher than that. Um, the thing that I really like about this particular matchup is that Tampa Bay blitzes so often. Um, and I think that
3:47that anytime you leave yourself short-handed and you have to ask just one guy to try to tackle Fannon, um, that that's tough. That's a tough
3:55assignment for one guy. Normally, it takes two, three, four guys to bring this guy down. So, I feel pretty good about banning to this spot. I would go
4:01back um even after the dud in week one.
4:04>> And how about Casey Conpsion? I know Denzel Boston caught the long touchdown uh in garbage time at the end. Your
4:11thoughts on KCC, what you're seeing from him.
4:14>> Yeah, so I'm going to say top five finish for Fannon at tight end. Um which is going to be tough because there's
4:18already been two really good finishes this week in Cancan Leaporta. Um, and then Conception, I have also ranked well above Consensus this week. If you look
4:26at my rankings compared to Consensus, I'm I'm like 12 spots, I think, above.
4:30Um, I think that it's again like leaving yourself short-handed in the secondary um is not going to be a good idea
4:38against these two players. So, obviously, this comes down to Deshun Watson and his ability to get the ball out. But I really trust Todd Monkin and
4:46I think that he'll be able to scheme pretty well to get the ball into his best Yak uh players hands which is
4:52clearly Conpion and Fannon against the Blitz here. So I think Conpion somebody you can go to um if needed. The role was
4:59pretty good last week. He was only playing in three receiver sets but again with them on the road against San B and
5:04expected to be playing from behind. I think we're going to see them mostly relying on that. And the second half I
5:09think you could get a lot of garbage time stats or concepts on. Yeah, it it's also one where a couple things we're
5:14looking for. Garbage time, I think, is the operative word here. Um because it could be a game where Cleveland's trailing by a ton. Um and and I think
5:23the fourth quarter could be very generous for both Fannon and for KCC.
5:27The other thing we'll look for is can we maybe get uh a new quarterback in Cleveland? Cuz if if this doesn't work
5:33out, then maybe we're one step away from a quarterback change, which I think a lot of fantasy managers would be actively rooting for. a lot of problems
5:40in in Cleveland right now. That offensive line, some big-time issues. My take here, we're going to go with a team that we have a lot of confidence in in
5:49the San Francisco 49ers. And I think this is a double take here where we saw last night these correlation plays that
5:57were incredibly fantasy friendly. Jared Goff, Aman Ross St. Brown, uh, and then we certainly had Josh Allen and Daltton Concincaid who's playing on another
6:05level. I think we're going to see it again in a in a in a game this Sunday where Brock Pery is going to have a
6:12phenomenal game. 300 plus passing yards, four passing touchdowns for Brock Party.
6:18He was QB10 on the week last week. Was excellent against the LA Rams in Australia. They have this long time to
6:26prepare for for the Miami Dolphins who have arguably the worst pair of starting quarterbacks in the NFL. So, you've got Brock Pery, 300 passing yards, four
6:35passing touchdowns. That should put him in in top five quarterback finish this week. And you're also going to get a top
6:42six wide receiver finish from Mike Evans, who's going to catch two of those touchdown passes. Smash week for Mike Evans, smash week for Brock Party. We're
6:50also going to see a touchdown catch for Christian McCaffrey, and a touchdown catch for Demarcus Robinson, who I think is a really fun like dart throw,
6:59sleeper, streamer. if you're searching for a wide receiver three or flex play.
7:03So Brock Perie, Mike Evans, smash week, top five and top six, 49ers absolutely roll.
7:10>> I love it. Yeah, San Francisco looks really good this week. Um I do think D-Rob, he's somebody I'm like streaming
7:15in some of my Dynasty baseball leagues and stuff like that. So super sicko content there for the people. Theo, good stuff. Um and I I think Kalon Black is
7:24another player who could have a really big performance in this game. So everything looks good for San Francisco.
7:28I think it's going to be a competition this year between the Dolphins and the Titans to see who's like the least uh
7:33serious organization in professional football. Um, and I I don't know, man.
7:38That Dolphins secondary in particular looks like really really easy to pick on. And I think this could be a huge game for Evans. We didn't get we didn't
7:44get to see much downfield work for Evans last week. They really use him in kind of like the Jawan Jennings role if you
7:49look at his route tree. Um, I think that they might want to kind of test that out a little bit this week and get him get
7:55him rolling downfield a little bit. It's also a huge size mismatch when you look at Miami. There's really no one that can
8:01match up with Evans and and I think the fact that that Robinson's out there in sort of the dribbling role uh is going
8:06to help him out. So big game for Debo last week too. And we we don't know how the the game flow would have gone if if
8:12maybe Debo wasn't quite as effective as he was. So really I think a massive massive pretty start. I think that's also if you're playing DFS, a Brock
8:19Pury, Mike Evans or a Brock Perty uh using a cheap Demarcus Robinson might be a nice way to go. you have a basial
8:26Tutin take and this is an important one because Toutin last week uh dominated the production at the running back position. Uh he had explosive plays but
8:36he played 48% of snaps and 15 plus touches. I believe it was 16 touches Jacob uh 66 yards. Um
8:46not a not a whole lot of like strong takes from my part. I did say that I think fantasy managers should be trying
8:51to trade for Bashel Tutin this week in in leagues that allow trades because I think the market sentiment is sort of
8:58overly negative about him. I think it's a lot of victory lapping about the lack of snaps. But how does he stand up this
9:05week against this Denver Broncos defense and what's your bold prediction for this one?
9:10>> Yeah, so I'm going to say Tuton goes for at least 100 scrimmage yards in this game. will put two in top 12 um running
9:17back finish in week two. Um I really thought that he played well in week one, really got rolling. Um Liam Cohen seems
9:25to agree. He gave him more work as the game went on and it wasn't just in garbage time. It was happening in the
9:30first half. Um Chris Rodriguez didn't do a whole lot with his opportunities early on and Tuton ended up being one of the
9:36highest yards after contact creators the running back position across the league in week one. And that's something that Cohen has harped on all off season that
9:44that that's what he really wants from his running back room. That's why he brought in Rodriguez. That's why he believes in Tuton. And after week one
9:51when he was asked what he liked about, that was one of the first things he said is yards after contact. Yards after
9:54contact. He's always saying that. Um we just saw that the Broncos give up a crazy amount of yards after contact to
10:01Kenneth Walker. 179 yards after contact to Kenneth Walker. It wasn't just him.
10:07Emmit Johnson was breaking tackles everywhere. Rashi Rice broke a tackle to score a touchdown. Like we all saw it on national TV. It was the worst tackling
10:14game. If you look statistically, it was the worst tackling game in week one for any defense dating back over 20 years. I
10:21maybe that just gets fixed in week two.
10:23Um but if not, Tootton is definitely the guy to take advantage of that. He's been a good tackle breaker all the way dating
10:29back to Virginia Tech. And I think we I think we finally see some explosive plays from this guy. We've seen it at
10:36times um in college for sure. Uh we saw it in the playoffs last year. Um I think that in week two we get at least one big
10:43Tutin play and it's like there it is.
10:44That's why everybody's been so excited.
10:46Um I think I think it's going to be a big week for Toutin here.
10:50>> Yeah, I I'm I'm with you. I'm using him in all the lineups. I don't have him on any benches. I think this is a great
10:55opportunity. And that Denver Broncos defense, it was Denver Broncos heading into the season. We felt so good about their offensive line play and their
11:04defense. A lot of question marks in in week one. I mean, certainly if they turn things around this week, get back to
11:09normal, but this was a weird one. And I think this is a really a tilting game for them. Jacksonville with a chance to
11:16go to 2 and 0. We know how effective Trevor Lawrence was against this Denver Broncos team last year in the second
11:22half of the year. So, I think there's going to be scoring opportunities for Jacksonville. Uh definitely one of the the more fun games on the slate. My
11:29take, you talked about Bashel Tutin a year or two back with sort of unknown upside. I'm gonna go with a player that
11:35I never thought I'd be making bold takes about at any point this year, but I think Aaron Jones is gonna have his
11:41first RB1 finish since last November.
11:44So, almost a year since Aaron Jones has finished as an RB1, a top 12 scorer on the week at running back. The Chicago
11:51Bears allowed 86 receiving yards to the Carolina Panthers running backs last week. Uh, and I think Aaron Jones gets there with a lot of receptions. I'm
12:01gonna say six catches for Aaron Jones, a number of checkdown opportunities from Carson Wentz to him. And when you look at what the Vegas sports books are
12:11saying, Aaron Jones is listed at like 80 total yards in a lot of books. So, uh, the sports books are basically saying
12:17this is going to be a big Aaron Jones opportunity. I'm going to say Aaron Jones a top 10 running back finish this
12:23week. And a lot of it is going to be based on the receiving upside that I think he has in a game where the game
12:30flow is going to be fantastic. The total's at like 48. I'm really looking forward to this one, but I'm using Aaron
12:35Jones in a few lineups and I never thought I'd be saying that. I was almost fully fading him this past off season in
12:41favor of Jordan Mason. But now a huge opportunity and I think a lot of people sort of talking about Deont Claybourne.
12:49I think they're going to try to see what they can get out of Aaron Jones in like a major way. short-term thinking. I
12:54don't think he can do this for a long time, but for maybe two, three weeks, I think Aaron Jones is going to be very
12:58effective.
12:59>> Yeah. So, I read all the the um coach speak index. Um I check out his discord every week and read everything for every
13:05team. And what I was seeing for Minnesota as they talked about their backfield, Kevin O'Connell, it seemed like DJ Dallas was the guy who's going
13:12to play a larger role that we don't know. But, um to me, Claybornne feels like more of Aaron Jones insurance. I
13:18don't know if Jordan Mason and him are really that similar in what they offer.
13:23Um, and I think DJ Dallas is the guy who's going to play like and soak up a lot of like pass protection snaps and
13:28stuff like that. Um, but I think there's a real chance that Jones gets like 70% of the backfield touches. Um, I think
13:36more likely than Jones having like, you know, 15 20 touches is that they're just going to go really pass heavy if I had
13:42to guess on the road um against Chicago probably playing from behind. But yeah, we just saw massive production um from Carolina's offense in this game. This
13:51Bears defense looks like it might be one of the worst in the league. So, it doesn't feel good. Uh, but we're both
13:56going to the Vikings and Carson Wentz with some hot takes this week. I have Aaron Jones ranked 23rd at running back.
14:02Uh, for reference, Tuton, who I'm very high on this week, I have it 20th. So, not far behind Toutin. I think he's
14:08somebody you can definitely go to as a starter this week. It's It's a bit risky because Minnesota's offense definitely might might stink in this one. Um, and
14:16Jones is is an old guy. Like I don't know how many explosive plays he's given us, but if he gets the receptions like
14:21you said that would help a lot.
14:23>> Yeah. I mean the game flow that Chicago Bears offense is going to put a ton of pressure on them. I'm going to I have a
14:28Bears take at the end of the show, but you have a take on another Minnesota Viking.
14:35>> Yeah. Yeah. Jordan Addison. Um people probably aren't going to to love this because uh he had zero points last week.
14:42like he's somebody who uh we were excited about a couple of years ago, but he's completely faded off the fantasy radar it feels like. Um so last year he
14:50he had four games with Carson Wins. We actually have a decent little sample size here of him playing with Carson Wentz. And in those games he had 12, 15,
14:5715, and 22 PPR points. Uh he had 114 yards in one game, 128 yards on nine receptions in another game with Carson
15:06Wentz. 21% target share across those four games with Wentz. I mean, it's really simple. It's just a good I think a good player here against a really
15:17really suspect secondary in a game where the Vikings are probably going to be playing from behind. So maybe early on they try to run through Jones and the
15:25the checkdowns and everything, but I think as it goes along here um they're if they're going to try to keep pace
15:30with this offense, they're going to have to take to the air more and more um take more downfield shots. Addison is a very
15:37risky player because of the role that he plays at this point in his career. Um his average route depth, so the distance
15:42from the line of scrimmage where his cut in his route comes on average, is over 12 yards downfield is where it was in
15:49week one. Um that's one of the highest of any receivers who are fantasy relevant, which he wasn't in week one.
15:55Um and I think it's partially because of that role. So if you do decide to roll the dice with Addison, just recognize
16:02how risky of a play it is. um because it's just very hard to um draw targets when you're occupying such a downfield
16:09oriented role. But if ever there's a game script to facilitate more targets to that type of player, I think it's this one where they're expected to be
16:17playing from behind against an offense that just scored 59 freaking points in week one, right? Like there's a real chance that they're down by double
16:24digits and really have to push the ball down the field. So I have Addison ahead of a bunch of guys who I actually really
16:30like this week. Um, I have him ranked as a top 35 receiver uh overall for week two, but definitely boom bust.
16:38>> Yeah, boom bust is the word. And but we have a sample size of Jordan Addison now uh with three years as a pro. You look
16:45at his first two seasons in the league, 19 touchdown catches. He also had a rushing touchdown. And then last year, obviously this was the down year for
16:54everybody in Minnesota. Um he's due for one. And I hate using doue for one. I know you're very analytical in your
17:00takes, but it's a player who we've seen put up all of these spike weeks throughout his career. Now, you've got a
17:05game where we just saw what Jaylen Coker was able to accomplish. Certainly, Justin Jefferson's going to get his about as much as humanly possible
17:12against Chicago if Minnesota's hoping to win. But I think this is a team with a little bit of confidence. 22 fourth
17:18quarter points in a comeback win. So, Minnesota is not like exactly a slouch right now offensively. And I think Addison having a Addison having a big
17:27week when literally no one uses him in DFS coming off of a goose egg. Uh it sort of would would make a little bit of
17:33sense. Um I'm going to keep this one going and I'm going to talk about another player. I talked about Aaron Jones and like last week we were talking
17:40about these fantasy football stars like top of the food chain kind of guys. I was talking about guys like Jamar Chase
17:45and Garrett Wilson. I'm kind of dumpster diving a little bit with this one. But I was impressed by Bryce Young last week.
17:53And Bryce Young was a player that I recommended fantasy managers ad off the waiverwire. Every year we get one of these out of nowhere low-end QB1
18:03finishes from a player who was highly drafted who's sort of been a slow starter to their career. Saw it several years ago with Baker Mayfield and the
18:12Dave Canales offense. You saw it with Daniel Jones last year. Now, Daniel Jones had that one big year under Dable, but bounced back in a major way sort of
18:21out of nowhere last year when a lot of people thought he'd lose the job to Anthony Richardson in the preseason. Go
18:26back to like Sam Darnold. What if it's a quarterback that's been on the same team and just gets a little bit older, a
18:33little bit more mature, and a little bit more comfortable in the system. Bryce Young, I think it looked really good last week. um went sort of toe-to-toe
18:41with Caleb Williams and finished as a top four scorer at the quarterback position, albeit a lot of the game flow coming from behind, all those
18:49opportunities as a passer. But he's also an Atlanta Falcons killer. Bryce Young is 4- one and he's won four straight against Atlanta throughout his career.
18:59So, I think he's got a lot of confidence going into this week against the Atlanta Falcons. And the last time these two
19:05teams played was in November last year and it was the week where Bryce Young went bonkers. It was like 440 passing
19:12yards. I think Bryce Young does it again. I think he finishes as a top eight scorer at the quarterback position. And I'll double down with this
19:20one. People looking to use Jaylen Coker again. Absolutely. You're using Jaylen Coker again. Coker thriving on the outside. Uh scored both of his touchdown
19:30on touchdowns on outside routes. I think they'll move him around effectively. And I think Tedaro McMillan has a strong game as well. I think there's two top 20
19:38wide receiver finishes to go along with a top eight quarterback finish from Bryce Young. And I think a lot of people
19:44who sort of laughed at him being included on the waiverwire column this week are going to be looking to add him
19:49after two strong starts to the year.
19:52Bryce Young top eight quarterback this week.
19:54>> Top eight's really bold. I like it. But >> he's had he's had massive games to your point. Um it's it's funny because like
20:02he doesn't often produce enough receiving volume. Um like his passing um yardage numbers are often quite low, but he has so many of these games where he
20:11has rushing touchdowns that he's actually had a lot of spike weeks. Like I looked last last week before his week one game at other games where the Vegas
20:18implied total of the Vegas overunder was so high how he did and he was really high. He had averaged like 23 points per
20:23game or something in those games, but he'd only averaged like 200 passing yards per game. And I was like, what the
20:29like how is that possible? And it's because of the rushing touchdowns. This past week, we see he gets the rushing touchdowns and he gets all the yards
20:36like airs it out and we see this big production for the receivers. I think it's possible that Jaylen Coker is so
20:41dang good that him and Tedo McMillan being there healthy together kind of unlocks something that we haven't really seen from this offense in the past as
20:49Coker has had to kind of work his way into a role throughout his career as a UDFA. Um, yeah, I have Coker at wide
20:57receiver 24, Ted McMillan, and wide receiver 23 this week. Um, I think either of them could exceed that. I've been trying to figure out what I want
21:04how I wanted to frame the Jordan hot take because it's like top 20 receiver, but they're the receivers have are insane this week. I don't know what your
21:12rankings are like. Um, but I'm like I'm just going to be too low on somebody relative to like consensus rankings. I
21:18have Christian Watson like seven spots below consensus. I'm like, that can't be right. But then all 16 guys ahead of him
21:24are nails, dude. They all look so good this week. Um, we had Parker Washington, Mecca, Buuka, Watson, like DJ Moore, Mike Evans, all these guys where their
21:31week one was really really encouraging.
21:34Um, so yeah, I I think both these guys could finish as top 20 receivers, but at the same time, we're we're feeling
21:39really rich at wide receiver at the top right now. Um, I like this take. I'm going to say I'm going to say Addison
21:45paces with these guys. Basically, I think he's similar. So, I had Coker ranked ahead of Jameson Williams. That's something that a lot of the the beyond
21:52the box score people kind of had trouble with this week was they wanted to start J Mo. Um I think JMO is actually really
21:58similar to Jordan Edison basically um in terms of how they look for this week. Um the way that they get their targets and
22:04everything. I think that's basically where Edison's upside case is. We'll say top 24 for him. I like your take on Carolina for sure.
22:11I I'm taking some L's for for Jameson Williams because I dropped that trade show and I had 12 guys in the trade
22:18show, but one of the guys to trade for was Jameson Williams. Nine targets in week one. Really, really disappointing game last night. A lot of fantasy
22:26managers had him in their lineups and certainly we've seen it where Jamos had like really poor games followed up by massive spike weeks, but that wasn't
22:35supposed to be the case this year, all the hype leading up to it. So, we'll keep an eye on maybe maybe in the future
22:40there'll be a Jame Williams hot take, bold prediction on on one of our shows.
22:44And make sure you're checking out uh Beyond the Box score. I'm going on with with Jacob every single Monday. Uh that
22:50show Monday this week was awesome.
22:52Looking forward to doing it again uh at the beginning of next week. And also a quick note that this show is brought to
22:58you by Better. Make picks on your favorite players more or less on their projections or jump into the Better Sports book for spreads, totals, and
23:05moneylines. New users can get four no sweat tokens after their first qualifying deposit. If if your qualifying entry doesn't hit, you can
23:14get your entry back in better bucks subject to the offer terms. Go check out Better and we'll keep this going. Um
23:21you've got a couple of rookie wide receivers to talk about. Um why don't you talk about Antonio Williams who's been like a red-hot name. You also want
23:30to talk a little bit about Mai Lemon.
23:32Yeah, Theo, you know me, I get I get pretty enamored with the rookies each year, even when it's a class like this
23:36where everybody acts like they suck. Um, I don't feel that way. I keep finding guys that look like gyms, and I think
23:42that's the case. I think most of the time when these classes get poo pooed, it's like, I don't know, there's still
23:47really extremely talented young players coming into the league that the team believes in. And so, if they get a chance, Caleb Douglas, somebody who
23:53nobody cared about really during draft season, it's like, that guy looks really good. Like, he's open all the time. He's got a cool release package. He's
24:01striding past people. He's really hard to keep up with. I don't want to overreact to Douglas um heading into week two because it's I think a pretty
24:09tough matchup here against San Francisco for a young player. Um so I'm I'm taking a a wait and see approach with him for
24:17for like starting him. But for reference, I don't see him as that much different than Cardinal Tate this week.
24:23Um I thought I thought their film was pretty similar. I don't that's not a long-term note necessarily, but in terms of how they score their fantasy points
24:30right now, they're not that much different. So, I have Tate at wide receiver 48, Douglas at wide receiver 49, and Denzel Boston at wide receiver
24:3851. I think they're all kind of similar players in terms of where their targets are coming on the field. Douglas obviously had a big game last week. I
24:44think that that might be real. Um, really really liked what I saw from him.
24:49like the other rookie receiver across from him, Chris Bell. I think he's just going to keep getting more and more looks as he finds his footing. Um,
24:56another receiver, rookie receiver who's coming off of an injury, who played a lot more than I expected, um, was Mai Limmon. He was out there in all three
25:04receiver sets. Um, obviously Dantavian Wixs has the big game, but they were signaling some clear intent to get Lemon the ball. Um if you look at uh players
25:13route usage um as the motion man, Mailman was first in the NFL tied with Amecha Ibuka and Aman St. Brown in the
25:22number of routes he ran as the pre-nap or at the snap motion man in week one.
25:27Um they were close to connecting him and and Jaylen Herz on a few of these routes. Some of them were just little
25:33screens and stuff like that um behind the line of scrimmage the targets. But there were some routes that he ran down
25:37the field. Um, one was an important third down that him and him and Herz just barely didn't connect on. And if
25:44ever really there's a secondary to kind of like allow some softer looks here, it's this Tennessee Titans secondary.
25:51Um, so I I could see Lemon having a bigger game here for sure. Um, kind of announcing to the league like, yo, I'm
25:57here. I'm actually really good. Um, and I also think I get a little nervous about the passing options at games like
26:05this where it could be a blowout. I think Lemon is somebody that even if they do get ahead, they could still try
26:10to manufacture touches to him to kind of get him going, get him acclimated. Um, get him to like his spots, finding his
26:17spots on the field on these routes and these plays and everything. Um, you know, I don't want to that I that's very
26:23disrespectful to the Titans, honestly, to be like, we're going to treat this as practice. But until I'm proven wrong, like until y'all aren't kicking your
26:30freaking first play of the game, first play of the NFL season out of bounds on the kickoff, like I'm not treating you
26:36like a professional organization. Come on.
26:38>> So yeah, I feel good about Mai Lemon having a good game here potentially.
26:42Another one is Casey Conpsion. I have him ranked basically where I have Jordan Addison. I think that this really could be a good game for him as I mentioned um
26:50when we talk about Fannon at the top.
26:52And then the last rookie who I I feel really good about is um a running back in Kalon Black. I think basically once
26:58you get past the guys that you think you know what their role are and you get into the more speculative plays like don't know what's
27:05going to happen in the Pittsburgh backfield don't really know how many touches like Jadarian Price or Jakori Kroski Merritt are getting this week um
27:13I think at that point Kalon Black stands out as one of the better plays um from the next group of Kyle Manangai Blake
27:20Corum Marshon Lloyd those guys um we need him to be healthy he he got added to the injury report with a groin
27:27injury, but if he's good to go, I think this guy is a very, very good player. I loved his film in Indiana. He looked
27:33fantastic in the preseason and then in week one, he obviously comes out and surprises everybody. Um, so he's got a good matchup here, one that could
27:40facilitate a lot of touches if the Dolphins are punting it back to San Francisco over and over and over. I really like him this week. And then one
27:47more, I know, I'm sorry I'm just ranting, but I I love all these rookies.
27:50Emma Johnson looked so good. And it's a similar type setup here where it's like if the Colts offense struggles and I
27:56think they could. The Chief Stevens is actually really good. If the Colts offense struggles like they did in week one and they're punting the ball back
28:02and Kansas City's playing with a huge lead, maybe it's 30 touches for Kenneth Walker, but I think realistically you want to keep Kenneth Walker healthy
28:09throughout the season and Emma Johnson played really well. The coaches have been talking about him. I think there's a real chance that they might just be
28:14like, let's give him 10, 15 touches. I think he's another for deeper leagues, another guy that you could flex this week. I mean, he gives you some
28:20explosive play potential, too.
28:23love Emtt Johnson. I think you an argument can be made when we look at the role that Kenneth Walker has right now
28:28and his importance to the Chiefs and the talent that Emtt Johnson has behind him and the fact that the coaching staff
28:34likes Emtt Johnson this much.
28:36>> Emma Johnson, you can make an argument, is like the most valuable handcuff in in fantasy football right now.
28:41>> And Kalin Black, I told you this in the pre-show, I think Kalin Black is sort of what we wanted Blake Cororm to be. Um,
28:49and not saying Blake Cororm season is over by any means, but the argument for Blake Cororm in like round eight was the
28:56Rams are going to be a a team with a huge lead. They're going to keep Kairen Williams fresh. Blake Cororm's just
29:01going to eat in the second half of games. San Francisco, I I think we're going to see that. We already saw it in
29:06the first half how they're using Kalin Kalin Black a lot and he looks super explosive and then they still are able
29:12to utilize Christian McCaffrey in like this, you know, very important role in the pass game where McAffrey's insulated to a point because he's going to catch
29:21six passes every game. Um, but Kalin Black can handle double digit carries every single game and we know the Shanahan scheme with these sort of one
29:29cut runners with explosiveness could produce some major things. So, I'm I'm into Kalin Black. I think it's a great take and I I share your enthusiasm for
29:37picking up some Mai Lemon. I think this is a signal to any Dynasty manager out there. There's going to be a bunch of
29:43like very nervous Mai Lemon people out there. Maybe make a a a small offer. You might be able to get 65.7 cents on the
29:51dollar for what you could have paid for him in June. And if you look at the schedule, Jacob, yeah, people give up
29:58way too. Hey, listen. you you know it's not as we're supposed to be like you know hardened um you know stock
30:05portfolio guys when it comes to our dynasty rosters but people are very reactionary especially people who are 0 and one um and especially people who
30:12spent like the number six pick in their rookie draft on a guy who's not scoring but if you look at the schedule here for
30:18Philly assume a beatdown of Tennessee even on the road in Tennessee I think that's a double double digit win for the
30:26Eagles this week but they sort of have to win this one and The offense needs to keep the foot on the gas. Here's their
30:32next three games in Chicago, potential shootout. In Philly against the LA Rams, potential shootout, and then in Jacksonville, potential shootout. So,
30:44three straight games against three plus offenses.
30:48Big time, big- time pressure on Shawn Manian. So, I think he's got to get to 2 and 0 this week. And I think ramping up
30:54Lemon would make a ton of sense. a couple of maybe little wrinkles to see some different things from Philly this week uh would make a ton of sense. I'm
31:02going to keep my next uh prediction here nice and short and sweet. We're going to go with an old guy tight end start of
31:08the week. Jacobe Lane uh a very disappointing injury. They were hyper utilizing Lane in the first half. You talk about reh rookies who looked really
31:16good. Lamar Jackson was targeting him in the end zone around get called back.
31:21Yeah.
31:22>> And it was three times in a row they targeted him. It was the one called back. They they tried it on fourth down
31:28and they tried it I believe it was on third down before. So like Jacobe Lane looked like he was going to be a massive
31:33thing. Then you had Zay Flowers exit the game with like 6 minutes to go in the first half when he had 150 yards. What
31:40happened after both of those guys exited was Mark Andrews was more highly utilized in the second half in a game that where Baltimore was really in
31:48control of the game. Mark Andrews had three second half catches. I think that continues this week with no Jacobe Lane.
31:55I think Mark Andrews becomes sort of the end zone guy, the red zone target like we've seen for so many years with Lamar
32:01Jackson. I think Mark Andrews, top six tight end finish, scores a touchdown this week. Uh Baltimore should be able to run a ton against New Orleans, but I
32:10think that's going to open things up for Mark Andrews. We're going to get a throwback game for Mark Andrews. Top six
32:15scorer this week.
32:17>> I hope not.
32:19I wanted to be Z Flowers, but if Flowers isn't playing, I guess, then yeah. Um, I've got a number of guys ranked ahead
32:25of him, but I I definitely could see it, especially if this turns into a back and forth game. If New Orleans is able to
32:29put the pressure on them, I'm nervous that we're going to see a bad game from Tyler Shuck um on the road here against
32:37Baltimore, against Jesse Mentor in this defense. Um, in which case the Ravens could just lean on the ground game. But um if we see like last week what we got
32:46from Shuck where it turns into like a back and forth game that's a lot of fun then yeah Andrews could definitely be a
32:51play. Um, I would rather roll with some of the like Daltton Schultz, sleeper tight end or streamer tight ends, um, or
32:57Brent Strange. I think like could take advantage of Denver's tackling for example. But with all these guys, it's really speculative. Like Britain Strange
33:05might have two targets, you know. Um, and so Andrews being the one that probably has the most touchdown equity of this whole group makes sense to me.
33:14Um, by the way, I forgot to mention one more rookie. um super speculative because he he literally might give you zero points cuz he was a like he only
33:20ran around on like a third of the drop backs last week. Antonio Williams out of Washington looked so good. Is he
33:26somebody you've gotten dynasty?
33:27>> I have Antonio Williams and it's funny it's it's like one of those things where you start getting trade offer after
33:34trade offer. Everyone wants him. The Hive is out there. Do you have a comp for him? And I'll throw a couple comps
33:40that are out there.
33:41>> The Lad Maconi comp is there from a lot of people.
33:45>> Wow. Um, and then there's like some whispered Aman Ross St. Brown comps out there, like young ARSB. But Antonio Williams on like a like a per route
33:54basis. Insane. Absolutely insane. He's definitely earned himself if if Washington doesn't increase his snap share this week. I'm going to be shocked
34:03based on how good he looked, the fact he scored a touchdown, and we think that the game flow is going to be very
34:08potentially high-scoring, potentially having to come from behind on the road in Dallas. But do you have like a comp here? I mean, he looks awesome.
34:15>> He does look awesome. Yeah, he looks a lot um more powerful than I would have expected coming into the like as a
34:21rookie. Um and he is he's almost 200 lb, you know? So, like my comps for him were kind of more um like smaller dudes like
34:29just because of the way that I saw him win in college as a route runner. It was like Elijah Moore, um Jaden Reed if they
34:35were like a little bit bigger. Um but he honestly looks like he might kind of blow that out in terms of like the power
34:41that he plays with. Um, in addition to obviously the refinement to his route running, he he looks fantastic. Fantasy Points data had him charted, it's only
34:4911 routes, but they had him charted as um the highest separation score of any receiver in week one and then obviously
34:55just getting targeted at a hyper um per route rate and catching basically everything. Um he looked great in the preseason, too. So, we'll see where this
35:05goes. It's a potential shootout here um against Dallas, so I think he's somebody you could start. Um, he could be one of
35:11these rookies who breaks out. I'll just say basically my hot take on the rookies is like one or two of those guys. I
35:17think I mentioned like five of them as I was rambling is going for like 20 points this week and is going to be somebody
35:22who's like at the top of waiverwires.
35:25Um, some of those guys already kind of have some steam. Um, so I just I really want to stash all of them for sure. And
35:30if you have to go there in deeper leagues, I think you could because they're actually all in pretty good spots this week. Yeah, I had Antonio
35:36Williams and Caleb Douglas towards the very top of of the waiver wire ads this week. I'll add one more little stat for
35:43Antonio Williams. In college, he had 25 rush attempts for nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns. So, the potential for manufactured touches as a runner is
35:52there as well.
35:53>> That's kind of why Reed was the guy who came to mind, but I do think he's a little bit bigger than Reed.
35:58>> Yeah, it's really fun one. And you talked about contingent upside. It's the oldest pair of starting wide receivers in the NFL with Terry McLaren and Stfan
36:08Diggs. I think if one of them went down, you could be talking about Antonio Williams as a top 30 wide receiver for
36:13the rest of the year uh with upside potential. We already saw it in week one. Final take for me. It's a Luther
36:19Burden week. It's a wide receiver one finish for Luther Burden. I'll lower I'll lower the bar here. We we'll say top 12. I'll give myself some wiggle
36:27room. I don't want to go too hyperbolic, but there was some strong signal from Luther Burton last week. Five catches, five targets. The Bears, again, you
36:37know, we've had to repeat this stat about a million times talking about why we shouldn't panic about Colston Lovelin, but the Bears had six rushing
36:44touchdowns as a team last week. Luther Burton, here's a signal. 71% snap share.
36:50So last year, he had only one game in the regular season where he went north of 70. He was the he was on the field
36:56for 70% of the time in week one. Again, five catches, five targets and he had a 52% slot share last last week, too. So,
37:05he's getting a really high rate in the slot. I think that you're going to start seeing more and more of that. And I
37:11think Minnesota also might be really good at stopping the run. So, Minnesota allowed only 66 rushing yards against Green Bay last week. Uh we know
37:19Minnesota, the defense, uh with Brian Flores, always has some fun scheme fits.
37:23I don't think this is going to be one of these things where Chicago is just running all over them. I think they're
37:28going to have to do a little bit with the passing game. I think Luther Burden, this is the week. It's going to be a
37:33statement game for him. Top 12 finish for Luther Burton. Where you at on this one, Jacob?
37:38>> Let's go. I I mean, I I obviously need this to happen. Luther Burden was my flag player for this year. Like one
37:44player who's the best pick in fantasy.
37:46Um but yeah, it was hilarious digging back into the usage. I do um like an in-depth usage breakdown of every position for every team on beyond the
37:53box score on Wednesdays. And I get to Chicago and I'm like this is way better than the perception is if people are
38:01acting like it was like a disappointing game for Luther Burton and it's like he had a 28% first target rate. He played a
38:07lot and I think he could play even more.
38:08I think they um were kind of like rewarding Jade Walker in this game. Um maybe Jade Walker keeps playing this role. I don't know. Um but if he if that
38:16scales back at all um as Odun and Burden get more and more um that would be good for him. He averaged 2.4 yards per out
38:22run. He created yards after the catch.
38:23He played in and out of the slot where it's like this is just exactly what we envisioned. It's a super fantasy
38:28friendly role. Um he played some of the plays where they went to like one or two receiver sets. Um so he's not one of
38:34these slot receivers who's only on the field for three receiver sets. And yeah, I think if the rushing production isn't just we get to do anything we want on
38:43the ground, we can have 500 rushing yards in this game if we want. Um, if they actually get some resistance on the
38:48ground, then we might see Burden leveling a lot of these Bears receivers have better games.
38:53>> And I think one other signal with Burton was he had the fumble and then they targeted him five times after in a game
38:59where they're scoring at will and rushing for all these touchdowns. So, it's like everything about Burton I think sets up nicely this week. I think
39:06he's another one where if you're looking to to use a fun play in DFS, I don't think there's going to be a ton of
39:12people cramming Luther Burton in, but I think he could end up having a really big week. Uh, Jacob, let everybody know
39:17once again where they can find your work.
39:19>> What one last thing on Burden, too, is Sorry about that. No, you're good. It's similar to the the Tampa Bay thing where
39:24um the the defense blitz is like crazy.
39:26I mean, they blitz like Brian Flores blitz like 80% of the time in week one.
39:30Um, which is just obscene. Like the highest rates you're generally seeing on a week toeek basis are like 40 45% or
39:36whatever. The league average is like 25 to 35%. Um it was like 80% blitz rate and so like you see Watson get a catch
39:43and run and it's like there's no one left like he's just gone. Um Burton's not as fast as Watson but like he
39:49definitely could create yards after the catch and if it's kind of like fanart it's like if you're gonna have just one
39:53guy who's responsible for tackling him and if that fails then it's a huge play like that might end up resulting in a
39:59bunch of huge plays. Um, and so we'll see. I think that Johnson knows how to attack um, uh, the Blitz, and I think
40:08there's a real chance that Burton gets a lot of looks in this spot. So, I feel good about this. I'm glad you brought
40:12him up. Um, yeah, Beyond the Box Score on YouTube. Uh, we do live shows every Tuesday and Thursday at 11 a.m. Eastern
40:19time. If you ever want to come hang out, um, we'll answer your questions and everything there. And then just creating tons of other content too to help you
40:26understand like what's happening around the league, how these teams are using these players, um how defense maybe influenced what we saw on a week- toeek
40:35basis. That's the whole idea, right?
40:37Going beyond the box score. So like what really happened um and and looking at not just the results, but like what we
40:43might expect to happen going forward.
40:45And I have great guests coming on week to week to help out with that. Theo of course being one of them. Ryan Heath
40:50comes on at the end of the week from Fantasy Points Data. um when we talk about which players we think are going
40:54to be the most meaningful players for um winning leagues this year. Uh last year there were 18 players for Ryan's research who were on at least 55% of
41:04ESPN playoff teams. And so we're trying to identify which 18 players are going to be on that list this year. Um so I
41:11think that's going to be a fun series.
41:12You can check that out. Um all that good stuff on Beyond the Box score. Please subscribe and stay locked unloaded. We
41:16got like seven episodes per week coming your way. So lots of good stuff to chew on.
41:20>> Yeah. Yeah, if you like the high volume approach to fantasy programming like I bring you here at Rotoire, you're going
41:25to love Beyond the Box Score. I look forward to you and Ryan talking about Daltton Concaid and trying to figure out
41:30what the ceiling is there. Uh, make sure you're checking out my show with Jacob early next week on Beyond the Box Score.
41:35Check out the Start Sit Show I did with Jim Coventry. Check out the trade show I just dropped. We're everywhere here at
41:41Roto Wire. We're going to help you crush your leagues this season.