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9 Fantasy Football ADP Changes You MUST KNOW Before You Draft

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Latest player insights
Keenan Allen's ADP is being monitored to see where it settles.
Caleb Douglas is currently being drafted frequently across various fantasy formats.
Mike Washington's ADP has climbed from the 15th/16th round to as early as the 13th round, driven by his role as a direct handcuff to Ashton Genty and a strong preseason performance.
MarShawn Lloyd is being pushed into the 10th round by sharp fantasy players who view him as a massive upside handcuff.
George Kittle is rising in ADP and joining the top tight end tier; beat reporters are bullish on his health, suggesting he could play as early as Week 1 or Week 2.
Harold Fannon Jr. is currently the first tight end drafted in a specific tier including Kyle Pitts, Tucker Kraft, and Sam LaPorta in FFPC formats, often going at the 4/5 turn as a high-upside pick, though he is pushed down in non-premium NFC formats.
Jeremiah Love is facing injury concerns but maintains a stable ADP, generally requiring a mid-to-early third-round pick in FFPC. He shows significant variance in NFFC drafts, with his draft position fluctuating between the second/third-round turn and the mid-40s.
Josh Jacobs has stabilized his ADP in the fourth round of FFPC drafts following his return to practice; in NFC formats, he typically goes in the 40s but occasionally falls into the 50s. High-stakes markets are currently ignoring suspension rumors.
Brock Bowers is considered a draft wild card who occasionally breaks into the top-tier conversation alongside elite picks like Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Ja'Marr Chase.
Despite suspension rumors reported by Adam Schefter, high-stakes drafters are not fading Puka Nacua, who remains locked in as a top-five pick. Trevor Lawrence views the rumors as noise and maintains confidence in Nacua's WR1 overall upside, advising drafters to treat the report as noise.
De'Von Achane is expected to see a slight ADP correction upward, potentially moving up five spots in high-stakes formats as drafters embrace his upside.
DJ Moore has moved from a locked-in fifth-round pick to a fourth-round selection in NFFC and FFPC drafts, driven by positive preseason performance. He is currently being drafted ahead of players like Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, Davante Adams, and Christian Watson, and there is potential for him to climb higher than his current WR23 price tag.
Chris Olave's ADP is rising, currently sitting at WR12 in FFPC (early third round). Trevor Lawrence is very bullish on Olave, ranking him 19th overall, and notes he averaged 18.8 points per game in games started by Tyler Shuck last year.
Jordan Tyson's ADP is in a consistent, 'slow straight line' decline due to injury status. Because FFPC and NFFC leagues lack IR spots, holding him is difficult in shallow formats, though he may become a viable hold in leagues that do provide IR roster spots.
Breece Hall is dealing with injury concerns, yet his ADP remains solidified in FFPC, typically requiring a mid-to-late third-round pick, though he occasionally slips into the fourth round. In NFFC, there is a wide variance in his draft position, ranging from the second/third-round turn to the mid-40s.
Chris Godwin is seeing a steady rise in ADP as drafters recognize his potential to be a major part of the offense; he is currently going in the seventh round in FFPC and mid-60s overall in NFFC drafts. With Mike Evans gone, Godwin has the opportunity to be peppered with targets and potentially operate as the WR1 in the offense, a role in which he previously performed like a top-five receiver with Baker Mayfield.
Emeka Egbuka's ADP is falling from the late second/early third round to the late third/early fourth round (37th overall in NFFC) due to concerns regarding a toe injury. Cryptic comments regarding the injury have created uncertainty about his status for Week 1.
Trevor Lawrence is cited as the quarterback whose historical connection with Parker Washington's skill set supports the receiver's fantasy upside and rising ADP.
Parker Washington's ADP has surged due to training camp hype and positive buzz from Jacksonville beat reporters. In NFFC start-three-WR formats, he is now being drafted 45th overall (round four), while in FFPC main events, he has moved from a sixth/seventh-round pick in July to a fifth-round pick in August. His skill set aligns well with Trevor Lawrence, and he is expected to maintain this role barring injury.
Jordan Mason is currently ADP RB37 in round 10. The source observed him at Vikings training camp and noted he looks leaner, bigger, faster, and smoother as a pass catcher compared to prior years—improvements in fluidity that have historically been a weakness for larger backs. However, the source expresses caution: Aaron Jones still controls the backfield with a 65% snap share, and Mason may not start the season hot. The source suggests a waiter-wire approach, potentially cutting Mason early if injuries create opportunity elsewhere, with the expectation that Mason's value materializes in the back half of the season.
Blake Corum is ranked RB32-34 in ADP (FFPC seventh-eighth round, home leagues cheaper) and is positioned as a value play despite the premium price tag. The source cites his college pedigree (27 rushing touchdowns in 2023 at Michigan, national title winner), his 800 rushing yards last year with usage ramping in the second half, and his burst recovery post-ACL injury. The source projects 12 rushing touchdowns and 1,000 rushing yards as a realistic scenario, with upside to 18 touchdowns if he becomes the lead back. The Rams' high-volume passing offense (Devonte Adams, Puka Nacua, tight ends) and defensive strength create a favorable environment. Charles Robinson highlighted Corum as the Rams' training camp wild card due to his recovered speed and burst.
Aaron Jones is currently ADP RB42 and maintains control of the Minnesota backfield with a 65% snap share. However, the source flags significant injury concerns: Jones has been equally banged up as Ken Walker over the last two years, dealing with hip, shoulder, knee, and calf injuries on a weekly basis. This injury history is a major caveat to his role security. The source recommends fading Aaron Jones due to age and durability concerns at 32 years old, suggesting a strategy of pairing him with backup Mason Clayborn to create a pathway to the entire backfield if Jones breaks down, particularly in the second month of the season or beyond.
Bashard Smith is a converted wide receiver and pass-catcher specialist type who was the only other running back working with the Chiefs' first team in preseason. However, Emtt Johnson will jump past him on the depth chart, indicating Smith is not the primary backup option despite his first-team work. The source views Johnson as a different level of talent.
The source is very bullish on Kenneth Walker as a fantasy asset and drafted him in a sharp money-making lineup, pairing him with Emtt Johnson in round 15 as a handcuff strategy. This positioning suggests Walker is undervalued relative to his role and upside potential.
Travis Kelce is sitting at TE 11 in ADP despite leading the Kansas City Chiefs in targets every single year and maintaining that target leadership streak since Tyreek Hill left. The source emphasizes that Kelce has consistent production backing and structural utility in drafts. Training camp observation shows Kelce looks different and built to start hot this season, contrasting with recent slow starts; last year he didn't have a 75-yard game until week 6, and two years ago not until week 4, with no 100-yard game until week 9. The source believes this is an anomaly season where Kelce will start super hot despite market perception he's declining, providing roster utility and tight end value in the 10th round.
If Breece Hall misses significant time and Garrett Wilson remains healthy, Wilson could emerge as a leading target earner in the NFL. The source frames this as a contingency scenario where the offensive structure would shift to elevate Wilson's role, making him a potential league-winner in that outcome. However, the source emphasizes that Hall is the bellcow workhorse and is ranked very highly, implying Wilson's upside is conditional on Hall's absence.
Breece Hall is being undervalued despite elite production metrics and bellcow role security. He was fourth in breakaway runs last year with 17 runs of 15+ yards and 8 runs of 20+ yards; he posted his first 1,000-yard season in 2023. The source acquired him at pick 312 in an FFPC league and would target him in the fourth round if available, viewing his current ADP (middle of third round) as overvalued relative to his upside. Jets head coach Aaron Glenn does not view Hall's reported groin injury as a massive deal. Injury timeline estimates: if a tweak, day-to-day to one week; if grade one, approximately two weeks; if grade two (worst-case outside of a tear), approximately six weeks. The injury occurred August 17th, with four weeks until the Jets' first game, providing time for contingency planning. Hall is lined up for a bellcow role in 2024 and is capable of putting up huge reception totals.
Tucker Craft's return to the field at tight end provides real quality to the Green Bay Packers offense, which already features strong wide receiver depth. His presence supports the Packers' ability to compete in shootouts with any opponent, particularly given Jordan Love's capability as a quarterback.
Goff is going off the board as QB16 but has potential for a 40-touchdown pass season and is positioned as a league-winner value. He has finished QB13, QB7, and QB11 in three consecutive years. The Lions have an elite offensive environment with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta healthy, and Jameson Williams at age 25; weak secondary opponents; dome games for playoff run; and QB1 strength of schedule to start the season, positioning them to average 30–35 points per game.
Hopkins had 115 receptions, 160 targets, 1400 yards, and 6 touchdowns in 2020 with Kyler Murray in Arizona. This historical precedent is cited as evidence that Kyler has a track record of supporting elite wide receivers at the highest level, supporting the bullish case for Jefferson's 2025 target share with Murray.
Harrison Jr. received 120 targets as a rookie in the Arizona offense with Kyler Murray, demonstrating Murray's ability to support elite pass-catchers. This usage is cited as evidence that Kyler can feed alpha receivers at a high volume.
McBride had 147 targets and 1100 yards in 2024 with a 29.3% target share at tight end, demonstrating Kyler Murray's willingness to feed alpha pass-catchers. The source notes McBride's own statement that Kyler would force-feed him the ball even when scripted as the third option, proving Murray 'understands how the bread is buttered.' This usage pattern is cited as evidence that Jefferson can achieve a 31–32% target share with Murray in 2025.
Addison is not yet at the level of George Pickens and remains the secondary option in the Vikings offense despite being on the field as much as Jefferson. The source observed at Vikings training camp that Jefferson is the focal point and central point of the offense, running every route in the tree, while Addison is out there just as much but is clearly the secondary target. The source acknowledges Addison could potentially reach a 1A/1B or co-alpha role in the future, but that outcome is not yet realized.
Lamb is going at the end of the first round around pick 20 alongside Justin Jefferson but faces a structural disadvantage: he must share target volume with George Pickens in Dallas. Unlike Jefferson, who is the clear alpha and focal point of the Vikings offense running every route in the tree, Lamb operates in a more crowded receiving corps, explaining why he should be valued below Jefferson despite similar ADP.
Jefferson is being faded to WR18–19 in some formats despite elite production in every season as a pro but one; the source ranks him WR9 overall and notes he was drafted at pick 20 in an FFPC $350 entry draft, representing a rare opportunity to acquire a top-tier talent in the second round. The fade is attributed to recency bias ('what have you done for me lately') rather than fundamental decline. With Kyler Murray now the Vikings QB, the source expects Jefferson to return to top-4 or top-5 WR consideration given Murray's proven ability to feed alpha receivers: Trey McBride had 147 targets and 1100 yards in 2024 with a 29.3% target share; Marvin Harrison Jr. received 120 targets as a rookie; DeAndre Hopkins had 160 targets, 1400 yards, and 6 touchdowns in 2020. The source projects Jefferson can reach a 31–32% target share in 2025 with Murray, viewing market hesitation as fear and laziness, noting he has four more smash seasons remaining based on age and experience level.
Mike Evans' absence is highlighted as a key factor for Emeka Egbuka's fantasy outlook, noting that Egbuka commands a 30% target share when Evans is not on the field.
Emeka Egbuka is positioned for a breakout season as the designated WR1, described as an 'alpha' among a group of receivers that have historically been fantasy gold. He commands a 30% target share when Mike Evans is off the field and is expected to benefit from playing with a highly motivated Baker Mayfield, who is looking to bet on himself this season.
Nick Mullens showed significant passing production under Kevin O'Connell in 2023, averaging 370 passing yards per game across three appearances.
Kirk Cousins demonstrated high production under Kevin O'Connell, averaging 291 passing yards per game in 2023 and 281 passing yards per game in 2022.
Sam Darnold averaged 254 passing yards per game under Kevin O'Connell's coaching.
