10 BOLD Predictions for Week 7 of Fantasy Football
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
34 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 23, 2026
Published
Fri, October 23, 2026
19
Player insights
18
Players mentioned
Topics
Tucker KraftAaron JonesBam KnightBrock BowersCarnell TateCeeDee LambChristian WatsonDenzel BostonGarrett WilsonGeorge KittleJa'Marr ChaseJoe BurrowJordan MasonMichael Mayer
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
NegativeRole23:41
Still usable but facing a workload split that could trend toward Jordan Mason over the second half of the year. The functional run game using Aaron Jones in a super high bellcow-type usage role speaks to how Mason could perform going forward. Current volume cannot be sustained given the offense's needs and Mason's emergence. Ranked lower than Mason this week despite his recent production.
Insight pageBam Knight
PositiveBreakout26:00
Bold prediction to finish as a top-22 running back scorer this week. Showed superior efficiency to Tyler Algier: 15 carries for 80 yards vs. Algier's 18 for 38; also more efficient as a receiver with 2 catches for 18 yards vs. Algier's 1. Has earned a much larger role. With Jeremiah Love out and Denver allowing the second-most rushing yards per game, recommended as a sneaky spot start.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveUsage0:32
Film review of Week 6 against Bills showed Bowers wide open consistently, but Kirk Cousins favored Michael Mayer with increased target distribution; despite clear availability and favorable positioning, Bowers did not receive commensurate volume, suggesting quarterback preference or game script limited his opportunity despite elite route running and separation.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
PositiveValue5:27
Ranked ahead of Jeremy Bernard rest of season; positioned as the primary rookie WR comparison point to Bernard when evaluating rest-of-season value.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveProjection12:21
Ranked ahead of Drake London in the source's Week 7 receiver rankings, indicating preference over the Falcons receiver despite London's home matchup appeal vs San Francisco.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveProjection13:00
Ranked WR6 for Week 7; leads the league in middle-of-field yardage with 300 yards, commanding lead over second-place Malik Neighbors (208 yards). The Lions allow the second-most middle-of-field yards per game with a 90% catchable target rate on middle-of-field throws, setting up favorably for Watson. Watson is due for a big game after a near-TD last week that didn't connect. Positioned as a potential WR1 overall play in Week 7 against Detroit, which allows the most receptions to opposing receivers, most passing yards per game, and most receiving touchdowns overall. The Lions' defensive weakness creates a shootout environment favoring Watson.
Insight pageDenzel Boston
PositiveProjection5:43
Source projects potential for a huge game this week against the Titans, contingent on health; ranked ahead of Jeremy Bernard rest of season.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
PositiveMatchup1:39
Ranked WR15 for Week 7 with a favorable matchup against the Dolphins; the source describes this as an amazing spot for Wilson in the receiver rankings.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
PositiveProjection7:24
Bold prediction: TE1 overall for Week 7 with an absolute smash week; projects for 25 points and ranks as the number one scoring tight end on the week. Kittle carries a 21.6% target share and five receiving touchdowns (tied for most at TE). With Mike Evans off the field, he has run 50 routes with a 38% target per route run rate (vs. 18% with Evans on field) and three touchdowns without Evans this year. Atlanta Falcons have allowed six TD catches to opposing TEs, with recent examples including Colston Loveland (6 catches, 65 yards, TD), Jawan Johnson (6 catches, 59 yards), Pat Freiermuth (5 catches, 46 yards, TD), and Darren Waller (2 TDs). Falcons are banged up with multiple injured linebackers, creating a favorable matchup.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveProjection15:57
Bold prediction: 2 TD catches vs Ravens in Week 7. Historical dominance vs Baltimore across last four matchups: 10 catches for 132 yards, 7 catches for 110 yards, 11 catches for 264 yards and 3 TDs, and 10 catches for 193 yards and 2 TDs; 59 targets over those four games. The source states 'He smashes against the Ravens each and every time,' indicating consistent elite performance in this matchup. Currently ranked around WR15 in points per game but positioned for a huge smash spot given the matchup and post-bye week strength of the Bengals offense.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection17:24
Bold prediction: 325 passing yards and 3 passing TDs vs Ravens in Week 7. Post-bye week historical data is strong: averaged 315 passing yards per game with 23 passing TDs across 9 games (three straight post-bye weeks over three previous years); Bengals went 7-2 in those games with awesome yardage totals. Burrow consistently produces strong signal coming out of bye weeks, positioning him for a statement win.
Insight pageJordan Mason
PositiveProjection22:27
Primary bold prediction centers on game script potential against the Vikings, who are 6.5-point favorites and expected to have 60-70+ offensive plays. Mason has been out with a thumb injury but conditioning is fine and he'll be ready for a large workload. The Colts allow 5.1 yards per carry on zone runs (fourth highest), have the seventh worst miss tackle rate on RB runs, and fifth highest yards over expectation allowed per RB run—exactly the type of defense Minnesota's zone-run scheme targets. Compares favorably to Jaylen Warren's success against this defense, with Mason excellent at avoiding tackles and creating yards after contact. Vikings offense trending up with Kyler Murray's best game of the season, and they're getting Hawkinson and Addison back, creating touchdown opportunities. Workload split expected to trend toward Mason over the second half of the year; Aaron Jones cannot sustain his current volume. Minnesota views themselves as a contender and ramping up Jordan Mason with two running backs heading into the postseason is paramount for their NFC playoff success.
Insight pageMichael Mayer
PositiveUsage0:37
Received increased target volume from Kirk Cousins in Week 6 against Bills despite Brock Bowers also being open; Mayer was prioritized by Cousins over Bowers in the passing game, indicating elevated role and quarterback trust.
Insight pageMike Washington Jr.
PositiveBreakout27:14
Bold prediction to score a touchdown this week for the Vegas Raiders; source feels very good about his trajectory. Last week posted season-high snaps, his most touches, 50+ combined yards, and two red-zone touches. Recommended as a flex or RB2 option if in a bad spot. Has more juice right now than Ashton Genty.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
NegativeValue28:39
Mentioned as a potential RB2/Flex option in desperation scenarios, but the source expresses caution about the risk profile, describing the prospect of rolling the dice on Harvey and similar depth-chart backs as 'really dicey.'
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveProjection19:10
Bold prediction for a spike-week performance across various formats. Kraft has been an absolute efficiency machine on a per-target and per-route basis historically; if he approaches past efficiency levels, starter totals could extrapolate into something huge. Recent target trends show rise in volume: 8, 7, and 8 targets over the past month as Green Bay leans into the passing game. Dream matchup against Detroit, which allows the most receptions and receiving TDs to opposing tight ends; Kraft has 2 TD catches in his last 2 games vs Detroit. Only one game this season with 15+ points, so upside remains. Potential for multiple TDs in a shootout environment against this leaky defense.
Insight pagePositiveProjection19:10
Bold prediction for a big game vs Detroit, which allows the most receptions and receiving TDs to opposing tight ends and most passing yards per game. Craft has 2 TD catches in his last 2 games vs Detroit. Recent target trends show rise in volume: 8, 7, and 8 targets over the past month as Green Bay leans into the passing game. Craft has been an absolute efficiency machine on a per-target and per-route basis historically; if he can approach past efficiency levels, starter totals could extrapolate into something huge, potentially aided by a touchdown against this leaky defense. Only one game this season with 15+ points, so upside remains.
Insight pageWoody Marks
PositiveProjection22:28
Ranked RB11 this week with bold prediction to finish as a top-12 running back. Texans are 10.5-point favorites against the Giants; Giants allow 2.4 yards before contact on RB runs (fifth worst), 4.0 yards over expectation per RB rush (fourth highest), and 5.0 man-gap yards per carry allowed (fifth highest). Marks expected to play ~80% of snaps with Jaward Jordan on IR. This is an unusually efficient game script for Marks, who typically relies on touchdowns; here he has both touchdown upside and ground efficiency potential. Described as 'locked in' and 'rock solid' with top-12 finish confidence. Fill-in running back value play with game script potential; available at reasonable trade prices if needed for RB2 help and shouldn't be expensive.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveProjection13:00
Ranked WR5 for Week 7; third in middle-of-field yardage despite missed time by both player and QB Lamar Jackson. Zay-Lamar splits are elite, averaging approximately 35 points per four quarters of football, comparable to George Kittle's splits without Mike Evans. Slot usage increased to 50% of routes this year, way up from past usage. Bengals allow the fifth-most middle-of-field yards per game and fourth-most slot yards per game, with only the Texans allowing more missed tackles per game on slot targets.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Bold fantasy football predictions for week seven. Theo Ginger of Rotoire joined each and every week by Jacob Gibbs of Beyond the Box Score. Rough
0:08week for us last week here, Jacob. We were running pure. We were feeling loose, feeling like a pretty awesome.
0:14And then a little bit of a sobering week six. So, put a lot of research into these ones. We're trying to get back to
0:20business and we want to bring the heat with some bold predictions that actually come true this week. How are you doing
0:26today, my man?
0:27>> I'm good. Ready for a bounce back? I mean, I think we we had some hits last week. I think maybe selling ourselves a
0:32little bit short. And then there were also some that were directionally accurate, you know, like looking at the the match up for Brock Bowers against
0:37the Bills that ended up all going to Michael Mayer. I went back and watched it film and Brock Bowers is wide open
0:41all the time. Both of them were. Um, but Kirk Cousins ended up going to Michael Mayer more and more. Um, but yeah, I
0:46think we got some good ones this week.
0:47Feel good about it.
0:48>> We need to walk it back sometimes and just just make it like positional bold predictions. like the Raiders tight ends
0:54collectively will do very well against this team as opposed to just pigeon holing a guy. But yeah, we, you know, we
1:00we we will continue to uh track and and be accountable for our takes here. Also, make sure you're checking out Beyond the
1:07Box score. We ran a little more pure on the hottakes episode. That's been going very well. Uh that's still evergreen if
1:13you want to go check that one out. Jacob and I are recording that every single Monday over on his channel, Beyond the
1:18Box Score. And Jacob, you guys are growing every single day. Our YouTube channel is growing, but uh you guys are also growing leaps and bounds. So go
1:25ahead to Beyond Box Score and hit that subscribe button. You're going to get a chance to see not only Jacob each and
1:30every week dropping like seven shows a week, but I'm I'm on one of those. So it's like a like a de facto little
1:37Rotoire show over there at least once a week. So good times over there. Let's uh get this one started. We uh had an
1:43awesome awesome week for Jeremy Bernard.
1:45You've been high on him the last couple weeks. I've been high on him in the waiverwire column for multiple weeks now. Uh price of a brick is going up. He
1:53is unobtainable in a lot of leagues.
1:55Dynasty value through the roof. Reddraft outlook through the roof. Has the PPR scam unlock from Aaron Rogers? The trust of Aaron Rodgers. Does he run it back
2:04this week in week seven in a great matchup against the New Orleans Saints?
2:08>> I feel good about it. Yeah, this the Steelers stayed pretty passy even with Rico Data coming back. Um they have a
2:13high implied point total this week against the Saints. 23.75 points against New Orleans in a game that could definitely get going back and
2:20forth. Um, and Jeremy has just been super super prioritized. Rogers has a lot of trust in him. He has more uh
2:26touches at the wide rece than anybody not named Pukanakua or Malik Neighbors um across weeks five and six. And so as
2:33we look forward to week seven, I feel really good about this. Um the Saints really went run heavy last week against
2:39the Giants um which was unusual for them. They've been so pass heavy all year long. um if we get into that kind
2:44of game script, that would suck. But I I don't expect that to be the case, especially if Pittsburgh, who is favored
2:49in this game, gets a lead. And so if we get both these teams leaning on the the pass, like we have seen them do so often
2:56this year, I think it could turn into a high volume game. And the more pass volume there is, the more dropback
3:02volume there is, um the the more the PPR scam grows, as we saw last week with Jeremy Bernard. Um, and I think in this
3:09match up particularly, like it could result in even more um, yards after the catch, miss tackles force and yardage efficiency, which we didn't get a ton of
3:18last week, but I do think is definitely in there for Jeremy. Um, given his college film and everything, the analytics there, he's been good at
3:24making people miss. Um, and so the Saints have the fourth most missed tackles on receptions this year and the seventh most yards per slot target
3:33allowed. They also have the fourth most yards per target allowed on throws of five or fewer air yards. So to me that
3:38all sounds like a Jeremy Bernard game.
3:40>> Yeah. I mean I feel like he's he's at this point the way they're using him it's almost like he's matchup proof um
3:45in this role. I also love like how last week we saw him make kind of the bonehead decision to try to cut it back
3:52when he had a clear first down and then they immediately go to him on like like two of the next three passing plays. So
3:59I think he looks awesome. I think the tra trajectory is pointing up and like you said it's it's a dream matchup. So,
4:07uh where do we think he finishes in terms of wide receivers? What's the the actual bold take here is he is a wide
4:14receiver what this week?
4:16>> It's really a tough man because I have Chris Alve wide receiver 14 this week.
4:19We're going to get into some of the receivers we really like. Like there are a ton of receivers who are in really
4:24good spots. I have Garrett Wilson wide receiver 15. He is facing the Dolphins.
4:27Like that feels like an amazing spot.
4:29So, I'm going to say that we get a top 15 week from Jeremy Bernard. Um, and that's saying a lot in my opinion. Like,
4:36I really liked Luther Burton for this week. I had him at wide receiver 20. I have the Carolina receivers outside of
4:40the top 15. Like, there's a lot to like at wide receiver this week. It's kind of an ugly week at running back. Um, but
4:45yeah, I think Jeremy gives us the upside with the yardage and the the miss tackle force stuff to push into that top 15.
4:50And I think really why you like him um as like a plugin this week is the safety, right? any type of PPR format.
4:56Like you said, it almost feels like you just you just print off like eight catches or something. The way that it's
5:01going right now, it's just free points.
5:03>> Yeah, for sure. It's and and the Saints the Saints like it's a perfect storm cuz the Saints are going to try to push the
5:09push it offensively. The tempo is always good and the defense is like super super generous. And Aaron Rogers also playing very well. Uh love this game. We got the
5:19game's in Paris 9:30 in the morning start on the East Coast. Jeremy could have like seven catches by halftime. So, absolutely love it. Now, uh feet to the
5:27fire here. Is there any other rookie wide receiver you'd rather have rest of season than Bernard at this point with this new role? Uh namely, it's really
5:35comes down to a Carnell Tate versus Bernard.
5:39>> Yeah, I do rest of season rankings updates every week. Um at Beyond the Box score, you can find those videos. The
5:44wide receiver version was like two hours long this week. dug into a bunch of usage data because we got a bunch of
5:49wide receivers playing different roles lately. Um, so let me double check.
5:53Jeremy Bernard, I have a wide receiver 36 rest of season, which is just ahead of Antonio Williams, Caseing Conpion, and Omar Cooper Jr. I really like those
6:01three rookies. I'm very high on them.
6:03Um, I do have Tate and Denzel Boston ahead of Bernard. I think we could see a huge game from Boston this week, too,
6:08against the Titans. I think they might really have a tough time stopping him.
6:12Um, as long as his health checks out, I feel good about that. So, I think Jeremy, if he stays in this role though,
6:17all year, that's the thing is we don't exactly know. Before injuries to multiple teammates, Jeremy was behind those guys. Is that because he's a
6:24rookie? Is that because they prefer Roman Wilson in the slot? I don't really know. Roman Wilson offers something that Jeremy Bernard definitely doesn't as a
6:30vertical player. Um, but I think if if Jeremy keeps this role or something similar to this, then he could easily outscore every rookie receiver rest of
6:37the way.
6:38>> Yeah, I I love it. I mean, I should have probably mentioned Denzel Boston as well. I have him rocking in about eight
6:43lineups. So, I hope you're correct. I might go Bernard over those two just because I think this role looks sustainable. I know there's some pushing
6:51back that when Michael Pitman returns, when Roman Wilson returns, Prior had the the hurt calf last week, but I don't know, Bernard just sort of looks like
7:00the real deal. And it's a perfect storm with like this low AOT role in in a in a offense that we know Aaron Rogers can
7:07thrive targeting players like him. So, I'm into it. I think he's a very very valuable asset and a player that projects as like a really strong player
7:15to roster over the second half of the season. My first bold prediction, I don't even think it's that bold. I wanted to go I wanted to go George KD
7:24outscores Christian McAffrey this week.
7:26Um, but I'm going to walk that one back and I'm going to say George KD is tight end one overall this week and has an
7:32absolute smash week. I think he's a great play in DFS. I think if you have him in a reddraft league, you're you're
7:38looking awesome as well. KD this year a 21.6% target share, five receiving touchdowns, which is tied with Isaiah likely for the
7:47most at the tight end position. And then we've got all this data where Atlanta gets burned by opposing wide receivers, but they also get burned by opposing
7:56tight ends. The Falcons have allowed six touchdown catches um in to opposing tight ends. You had the Darren Waller two touch touchdown game against them
8:06early in the year which sort of boosted these numbers. But you have Coloulston Lovelin uh last week he had a season
8:13like heading you know obviously Thursday was great for Lovelin but heading into uh week heading into week six Lovelin had his best game of the season against
8:21this Atlanta Falcons defense. Six catches 65 yards and a touchdown. Jawan Johnson six uh catches for 59 yards.
8:29Frimouth had five catches for 46 yards and a touchdown. Then we talked about Waller. So when I'm looking at this Atlanta Falcons defense, I think that
8:37they're also completely banged up. They are missing multiple linebackers. Um there's a chance that there's a chance that Daniels, the linebacker who might
8:47be on KD might might be back, but he's not going to be 100%. You have multiple linebackers who are playing injured. And
8:53it just feels like a game where with all these wide receiver injuries in San Francisco, they really really attack uh this oppos this opposing secondary using
9:03KD, moving them around, using him in creative ways. I'm going to say 25 points for George KD. George KD is going
9:11to be in a lot of winning DFS lineups and George KD is the number one scoring tight end on the week. Your thoughts of
9:17KD this week?
9:19>> George KD has run 50 routes without Mike Evans on the field this year. So that's like uh just over that's like a game and
9:25a half of data. How many points you think he has? Fantasy points. BPR.
9:30>> Oh my gosh.
9:32>> Game and >> let me think.
9:36Let's say 30 >> 57.
9:41>> Wow.
9:42>> That's pretty good, right? Yeah. He has a 38% target per route run rate with Mike Evans off the field. With Evans on
9:48the field, it's 18%. Evans has 37% of the targets when he's been on the field this year. He's really dominated the
9:54targets, especially lately. Um, I do think that yeah, Evans being off the field hurts the offense overall, but they're playing well enough that I'm not
10:01too worried about it. Um, and then KD gets way more touchdown equity with Evans off the field. He has three touchdowns with Evans off the field this
10:08year.
10:09>> Yeah, it just feels like a massive smash spot. It's It's like national tight end week. You can just think on like red
10:14zone how crazy they're going to go when George KD gets a touchdown or two. I think it's going to be a complete
10:18smashbot. It's also like there's a number of tight ends. It's very hard to get George KD up there in the rankings
10:25up to tight end one overall. I really want to go do it. Right now I have him as tight end three over at Rotoire in my
10:31own rankings. Where do you have him in your rankings?
10:34>> Uh tight end 1B him and Brock Bowers are both one. Yeah, I think if Evans is out, I'll probably just put him a one.
10:40>> Yeah, I think that's it. I I I think I I you know what I'm doing it for the record. He is going to be my number one
10:45ranked tight end ahead of Brock Bowers this week. The bold prediction is not just a bold prediction. Backing it up over on the site. Catch every drive,
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11:20I also love Drake London this week. I feel like things are looking good with Michael Penn, the passer. He had three
11:26passing touchdowns last week. We know that was a big Kyle Pitts game. Um, great stat. In eight out of his last 10
11:33games with Michael Penn, Drake London has 95 or more receiving yards. And it just feels like a game where both running backs are going to be highly
11:42highly rostered and used in DFS lineups.
11:46And rightfully so. Bejan and Christian McCaffrey are amazing. But it feels like a game with Atlanta being a short underdog in this one. It feels like
11:55they're really going to try to attack San Francisco with Drake London. Sort of a gut feel. Love London this week in
12:01DFS. I wanted to make the bold statement that he outscores Bejian Robinson, but you kind of talked me back a little bit
12:07before the show. Where you at on Drake London this week is a lot of wide receivers, Jacob.
12:12>> There are so many because like I I've got him above Justin Jefferson. I have him at wide receiver 12 and that's still
12:16like way below consensus. And I don't mean to be, but it's like Nico Collins and the Texans have the second highest
12:21implied point total this week. Uh I've got Malik Neighbors ahead of him. I have CD Lamb ahead of him. Like both Green
12:26Bay receivers. There's just a bunch of receivers I really like. But yeah, I think London absolutely could have a huge huge game at home against San
12:34Francisco in a potential shootout here.
12:36>> Yeah, it's going to be a really really good one. I think I think a lot of people are chasing the Green Bay Detroit
12:41game, but I think that Atlanta San Francisco game is a sneaky one that maybe has the most combined points of any of any two teams on the slate. Um,
12:49what is your next bold prediction here, Jacob?
12:53>> Let's just keep it going with these top receivers. Um, and so it's like pretty much the same reasoning for each of
12:58them. Um, and it's because these three are the top three receivers in middle of the field yardage this year. And so
13:05Christian Watson has 300 middle of the field yards. The next highest is Malik Neighbors at 208. So Watson has a commanding lead. Um, Neighbors is
13:14second, and then Z Flowers is third. I have Z Flowers at wide receiver 5 this week, Watson at wide receiver six, and
13:20Neighbors at wide receiver 9. It feels low on neighbors. I don't mean to be.
13:25It's just that I'm a little bit nervous about, you know, JJ McCarthy on the road against Houston. [laughter] Um, if I we've talked to all these
13:32receivers that are in such good spots, like the quarterback for all of them is better than McCarthy, even if McCarthy showed flashes last week. Um, but still,
13:39I think the matchup sets up so well for Neighbors. You've hit on um in past episodes, the fact that they're moving
13:44neighbors to the slot more, or they had been last week, they really upped the usage. It was above 40% of his routes in
13:50the slot um which was almost double his highest number before that. um he hadn't been above 30% in a game all year. And I
13:57talked to my buddy Dan Schneider who's my podcast co-host over Beyond the Box score and he has his own Giants podcast.
14:02He watches every game and he's like, "Yeah, they I think that they found something and they're really experimenting with it." Um anybody
14:09remember the CD Lamb game versus Houston? Like Josh Downs before that?
14:13Like I mean we haven't gotten many Josh Dows games, but we kind of got one there against Houston even if it didn't show
14:18up at the box score. He was shredding Jaylen Petri in that game. Uh that's been the way to attack the Texans this
14:23year is over the middle of the field. Um and it it shows up in the data too, not just the film. They have by far the most
14:29middle of the field yards allowed. Um they missed a bunch of tackles on middle of the field throws. They've just struggled against the slot. And so I
14:36feel good about Neighbors. Again, he's second in middle of the field yards with 28. He has 149 over the past two weeks,
14:43which is by far the highest in the league as I've gone to like a different type of usage for Neighbors. Watson
14:48leads the league in this middle of the field yardage and then the Lions have the second most middle of the field
14:52yards allowed per game and a 90% catchable target rate on middle of the field yards which I think is really good
14:58for a couple of Green Bay guys here.
15:00We've got another hot take loading here.
15:02Um and then Z Flowers gets the Bengals.
15:05The Bengals have the fifth most middle of the field yards allowed per game, the fourth most slot yards allowed per game.
15:11Only the Texans have more missed tackles per game on slot targets. Zay is third in middle of the field yardage even
15:17though he's missed time. Lamar Jackson has missed time. This is just raw yards.
15:20He's third. Um he's I gave you the stats on our Monday show on Beyond the Box score. Uh the Z with Lamar splits are
15:28ridiculous. They're pretty much right there with the George KD without Mike Evans splits where he's averaging like 35 points per four quarters of football
15:36or whatever. Um and he's in the slot way more than we've ever seen before. 50% of his routes in the slot this year is way
15:42up from past Zflowers's usage. Um, so I feel really good. I think these three are fighting it out for wide receiver
15:48one overall, which is crazy because we got Puka Nakua, Mon Brown, all these guys in really good spots this week. But
15:53I think one of these three is finishing as wide receiver one. I think they all have big games.
15:57>> Not so fast, my friend, because I think a wide receiver one might be hiding in plain sight and it might be a guy that
16:03we're used to used to ranking as the wide receiver one overall and that's Jamar Chase. And I think not enough talk
16:10about this one, but Jamar Chase with respect to your take. I mean, all three guys look awesome. I think your the
16:16number one takeaway is Jacob's still in on Malik Neighbors. I'm still in on Malik Neighbors. There's a lot of fear in the community. I think with JJ
16:24McCarthy, which what with what he did to Justin Jefferson, but like you said, the way that they're utilizing Neighbors, it's just a a highly functional role for
16:33an elite elite talent. Zay Flowers doesn't even need explanation. And then uh Christian Watson, it's sort of like a can we say he's due for for another big
16:41one. Had a potential touchdown last week, didn't connect. It just feels like it could be a Watson game. All three of
16:47those guys are fine. But let's make a little reminder on what Jamar Chase has done his last four games against the
16:53Baltimore Ravens. 10 catches for 132 yards, seven catches for 110 yards, 11 catches for 264 yards and three
17:03touchdowns, and then 10 catches for 193 yards and two touchdowns. He smashes against the Ravens each and every time.
17:12Loves being defended by Marlon Humphrey.
17:14Jamar Chase sort of just shreds him. 59 targets over his last four games against the Baltimore Ravens. And then we've also got some really strong data with
17:24Joe Burrow where Joe Burrow postby week has been awesome each and every year. Uh there's it's each and every year uh we
17:33have these Joe Burrow weeks where comes out of a by-week and there again last year we had we're dealing with uh not a
17:41smaller sample size but if we go with the three previous years in nine games played post bye-week so three straight games post byee he's averaged 315
17:50passing yards per game he has 23 passing touchdowns in those nine games and he uh the Bengals went seven and two and the
17:58yardage totals were awesome so Like you got Joe Burrow always has strong signal coming out of byweeks. Jamar Chase always has strong performances against
18:06the Baltimore Ravens. Jamar Chase, we're due for it. I mean, if we look at like the he's around like what wide receiver
18:1315 right now in points per game. Jamar Chase has a chance to put up a huge huge smash spot. I think we're looking at a
18:20huge Jamar Chase game. I'm going to say 300 passing yards and three passing touchdowns for Joe Burrow. Let's we we'll take it up a little bit. Let's go
18:29325 passing yards. Let's say three passing touchdowns and let's say two touchdown catches for Jamar Chase and they get a statement win against the
18:39Baltimore Ravens.
18:40>> I love it. I hope that you're right. I want this to be a really fun game. I hope Lamar Jackson's healthy. We get a
18:45back and forth game here. Jamar, wide receiver one, Z Flowers wide receiver two.
18:48>> There we go. There we go. Jamar Chase continues to smash. Uh but wide receiver is so difficult this week. There's just
18:56so many guys. Um, I mean, we could have covered a number of these other players.
18:59It also feels like kind of a an ugly ugly week at the running back position.
19:04We're going to talk about a couple of running backs uh in a few moments, but let's talk about another tight end that
19:10we both had some hot takes on. Um, Tucker Craft. And we had like a little bit of a scare with Tucker Craft last
19:17week where Tucker Craft looked like he got injured, then he continued to play.
19:23Now he has an absolute dream matchup.
19:25So, with respect to your Christian Watson w potential wide receiver one overall take, the Lions allow uh the most receptions to opposing tight ends
19:35on the season. They also allow the most passing yards per game, the most receiving touchdowns overall. And Tucker Craft has two touchdown catches his last
19:44two games played against Detroit. Um it feels like we're kind of due for a big Tucker Craft week. Uh where are you at
19:50on him this week?
19:52>> I like it. Yeah, I've got Craft ranked really high this week as well. Um I think that that makes a ton of sense
19:56that this could be a potential back and forth shootout that Craft has multiple touchdowns in even like that's possible.
20:03Definitely a tight end day could be a lot of fun. Um Craft has seen the targets rise lately as Green Bay just
20:09continues to lean into the passing game.
20:11Um he has target totals of 8,75 and eight over the past month. Um and I think that this seems like a really good
20:17spot if he gets anywhere close to that target volume against this defense has been very giving. uh to tight ends and
20:23just generally to the middle of the field. Um I'm curious exactly like where we'll be with Green Bay and the Josh Jacobs
20:30experience and everything if that's going to happen like um if that's going to affect anything here. I think just given the potential shootout and the the
20:38way that um Detroit has been easy to attack down the field and over the middle of the field that we'll still see
20:43a ton of passing. Um so I hope I hope that's right and we do get a big Craft game and a big Watson game because I'm
20:47leaning on both of them across various, you know, formats this week. Yeah, it's it's going to be incredibly tilting if they try to go with like the the Josh
20:56Jacobs type offense from previous years, but I think that they understand what they are. I think that this is a chance
21:02there. Jacob like touch volume is probably similar to what we saw collectively with like Pierre Strong, Marshon Lloyd. I think Jacobs is in a
21:10pretty good spot because the offense seems very functional, but there are challenges with this offensive line.
21:16This offense is completely changing.
21:17Jordan Love is in his bag. Uh, and I think it's going to be wide receiver centric maybe or not necessarily uh
21:23quite as pass happy as we saw each and every game. Um, but I think passhappy enough that we're still supporting like
21:30two wide receiver ones and then we'd love to see Tucker Craft, you know, get back to putting up some spike weeks as
21:36well. Maybe the return of Jacobs could also open some things up for Craft.
21:40>> Maybe. I mean, the volume has been there like if they stay anywhere near as pass heavy. The only Titans with more targets
21:45over the past month are McBride likely and Bowers. Um, and if like this guy has been an absolute efficiency machine on a
21:52per target basis for route basis in the past, if I don't I know he doesn't look maybe quite like himself yet. Um, but if
21:58he can get even close to the efficiency we've seen in the past, which I mean could easily just come with a touchdown.
22:03Um, some yak against this leaky defense, then these starter totals could really extrapolate into something huge.
22:08>> Yeah, only one game this season for Tucker Craft with 15 points or more. Uh, so we'd love to see him get it going
22:15this week. and then also some potentially decent matchups upcoming for him as well. Love this Green Bay pass attack. Let's talk about some running
22:24backs. Uh let's go ahead. Your your guys first and then I'll throw some running back takes in there.
22:28>> These are both really simple. Um I just like both of these as fill in running backs, value running backs. You might
22:34still be able to trade for these two if you um are so inclined, if you need help at your RB2 spot or whatever. And I
22:39don't think either's going to be that expensive. It's Woody Marks and Jordan Mason. I really like the game script potential setup here for both of them.
22:47Um, specifically Mason. Um, I really think that Indie is going to struggle to move the ball against Brian Flores and the Vikings. I I have really not been
22:58impressed with what we've gotten at QB from Indie this year. Uh, they're 24th in terms of implied points on the week,
23:05which is third to last. Um, and the Vikings are six and a half point favorites. So to me, this feels like a
23:11game where the Vikings might have 60 70 plus plays on offense and a lot of those come from the backfield. Um, and I think
23:21Jordan Mason, he's been out with a thumb injury, but um, hopefully it seemingly like his conditioning is fine and he'll be ready to handle a large workload,
23:28which is I think what they wanted going into the season. And it based off KOC's Kevin Okonnell's coach speaker, it seems
23:34like that's where we're at with um, this backfield. So, I like Aaron Jones as well. I think you can still go there,
23:41but I actually do have Mason ranked higher this week. Um, and in addition to just like the game script, the volume
23:47and everything that I expect, I think that this is a game that specifically Mason could find a lot of success on the
23:51ground against uh this defense. The Colts have the fourth highest opponent zone yard per carry rate, 5.1 yards uh per carry allowed on zone runs, which
24:01is, I think, what Minnesota spent their offseason, you know, trying to set up here for Jordan Mason. Um, made some coaching changes. Um, the Colts have
24:09struggled across the board, but have been significantly worse on zone runs than man gap runs. And then overall, they have the seventh worst miss tackle
24:16rate on running back runs, the fifth highest yards over expectation allowed per running back run. I think Jordan Mason is going to be just really psyched
24:24to get back in there and run some dudes over. Um, I think he's probably watching been watching this Colts film for, you
24:29know, weeks now. Get ready for this one cuz like we've seen Jaylen Warren just go to town on this defense. I think
24:34we're probably going to see something similar from Mason who's really really good at avoiding tackles and creating yards after contact.
24:40>> Yeah, I think I think also like the how functional this run game has been using Aaron Jones and like this super high
24:46Bellcow type usage role um speaks volumes for how Jordan Mason could look over the second half of the year. If we
24:53just simply go back to like the split in week one, it looked like Mason was going to be in store for a really strong
24:59fantasy viable role in this offense.
25:02This a offense in general is also trending up right now. Kyler Murray had his best game of the season. Uh then
25:08they're coming out of the by-week.
25:10They're going to get Hawinson back.
25:11They're going to get Addison back.
25:13Jefferson looks like Jefferson. So there could be touchdown opportunities for Jordan Mason. I agree with you. I think Aaron Jones has done enough that he's
25:21still going to be like usable, but to me it feels like a split and I think it could trend towards Jordan Mason over
25:27the second half of the year. They cannot give Aaron Jones this sort of volume.
25:31and and expect him to sort of hold up.
25:34They also have been mentioned as sort of a potential uh team that's that are buyers at the trade deadline. I'm sure
25:40we're going to be talking about some potential trades or talking about like the aftermath of trades. Uh but it feels like it could be a busy year. Minnesota
25:47definitely views themselves as a contender and I think ramping up Jordan Mason, having two running backs heading in the postseason is paramount for their
25:54success in the NFC playoffs. I'm going to go a little bit uglier. Uh, you know, Jordan Mason I think you could trade
26:00for, but I know you can go get yourself some Bam Knight. And I think if you need a spot start this week, Bam Knight might
26:07be it. Jeremiah Love is out. Uh, we know that the Cardinals are Cardinals are are playing with some pride after last
26:14week's win over the Rams. They had long sustainable drives in that one. Um, and what's interesting is Bam Knight 15 carries for 80 yards. Tyler Algier was
26:24terrible. 18 carries for 38 yards. So way more efficiency as a runner from Bam Knight. He also uh was more efficient as
26:32a receiver. He had two catches to Tyler Algier's one 18 yards on his two catches. The Denver Broncos have been really generous uh to opposing running
26:41backs. They're allowing the second most rushing yards per game. And I think a lot of the game plan is going to be like
26:48the short get the ball out of Jacobe Brassett's hands, but also trying to establish this running game. And I think that there's potential that Bam Knight
26:57has earned himself a much larger role and they're not going to give Tyler Algier that same kind of split. So I
27:03think you're looking at a sneaky Bam Knight week. I'm going to say Bam Knight. This is not that bold. Top 22
27:09running back scorer this week. Is that bold enough? I think that's bold. And then the other one I think it's a Mike
27:14Washington game. I think Mike Washington scores a touchdown this week for the Vegas Raiders. I think the Vegas Raiders are a live dog. Um, I feel very good
27:24about where Mike Washington is headed.
27:26Last week, we saw a season high um, in snaps. He had his most touches. He had 50 plus combined yards and they even
27:34used him on two red zone uh, touches.
27:37Mike Washington just looks like he has more juice right now. Ashton Genty looks like a guy playing really banged up. And
27:43I know Ashton Genty, like there's Ashen Genty takes out there that it doesn't really matter because he's getting these high value touches. Um, and even if he
27:51looks sort of inefficient, the highv value touches will sort of boost him.
27:55But I don't know, Jacob, it feels like a game where if they have a win over the Rams or keep it super close and we see
28:02Mike Washington take another step forward, I think it's a troubling signal potentially for Ashton Genty managers.
28:08Mike Washington scores a touchdown this week. I think if you're in a really bad spot, you could throw him in the flex or
28:14the RB2.
28:15>> You're scaring me, Theo. I got a lot of Ashton Genty in Dynasty.
28:18>> We have Ashton Genty. We have Ashton Genty. This take would hurt us. Our team is still running Pier. We're five and
28:24one with our FFPC team which has Ashton Genty on it. We didn't add Mike Washington as the handcuff there. But I
28:31worry a little bit longterm through for the season here. Maybe I'm just like overrating what Mike Washington did last week. Maybe Ashton Genty is just going
28:39to get all healthy and all that good stuff. But I worry a little bit about this one. I worry a little bit about
28:45Washington if they fall way behind that he might just they haven't seemed to want him on the field that much for
28:50passing plays um when they get that kind of game script. But so he he seems very risky to me as a flex. But there's
28:55definitely upside with both him and Bam Knight on a week where after the top 22 basically running backs um I guess if
29:03Saquon plays then 23 you get to like RJ Harvey and people like that and it get it seems really dicey to me. Um, and so
29:11if you're looking for an RB2 or Flex, if you, you know, happen to find yourself in a big hole, uh, heading into the the
29:18Sunday games, then I think you could roll the dice with those guys with with Bam N Washington. Um, yeah, Denver's, I
29:24mean, the only defense that has like worse miss tackles, force numbers, and like the Colts and the Giants and some of these defense I'm focused on here.
29:31So, you bring up Genty. I haven't been running back 19 this week, which is the lowest that he's been in my rankings all
29:35year long. I do have Jordan Mason ahead of him, and I have Woody way ahead of him. I've already marks a running back
29:4111 uh this week. The again I said the Texans, they're second in implied points this week against the Giants, they're 10
29:47and a half point favorites. So if JJ McCarthy does struggle or if he turns the ball over, anything like that, um
29:54we're I think we're potentially getting the ball back to the Texans quite often in this game. Um I think CD Shroud has
30:01been playing so well that he uh that the Texans are going to probably move the ball with relative ease here against the
30:07Giants. Um, the Texans Texans have really struggled to run block this year, but if any defense is one that you can
30:15like get right in the run game against, I think it might be the Giants. They've really struggled lately against the run.
30:21Um, and I think what we saw from Houston last week was they kind of threw out a lot of the uh zone running stuff that
30:28had not been working very well for this team and really simplified it and just went with a bunch of man gap. Just kind
30:33of, you know, pound it with Woody. um try to just get success rate runs and keep themselves ahead of the sticks. Um
30:40the Giants have the fifth highest opponent man gap yard per carry allowed on the year. They have 2.4 yards before contact allowed on running back runs,
30:50which is the fifth worst. They have the fourth highest yards over expectation allowed per running back rush. I think that Woody Marks is set to play 80% of
30:59the snaps or something like that. Jaward Jordan took some carries from last week, but he's on the IR now. Um, this feels
31:04like a really good Woody Marks game where he could score multiple touchdowns and have a decently efficient day on the ground, which is unusual for him. Um,
31:13that's always kind of the risk with Woody is you might be super reliant on touchdowns because you might only get 40
31:18or 50 scrimmage yards or whatever. Um, I think we actually have a chance for decent efficiency on the ground and touchdowns and potentially 20 plus
31:25touches if the Texans just control the the clock, control the the ball in this game. So, I'm going to say Woody Marks
31:31is locked in. rock solid running back option for you this week. Um I'll say he'll finish as a top 12 running back.
31:38We can we can push it higher if you want, but to me um there's a pretty big there's a pretty big gap um between like
31:46the top guys and then him. I mean the guy who ever ranked directly ahead of him is Jonathan Taylor, you know. So
31:51it's like I don't really want to say that he's going to outscore Jonathan Taylor or Chuba Hubard or Javvante Williams or anybody like that. Um but I
31:58do think top 12 feels really really good for Woody. Um he's one of the best secondary running back starts you got
32:03this week.
32:04>> Yeah, I know. I I love the take and when we're trying to look at just for like the what the oddsmakers are telling us.
32:10Uh absolutely ridiculous stuff. In some books right now, Houston is up to a 10 1/2 point favorite. Um probably going to
32:18be somewhere between 9 and 1/2 and 10 1/2 by game time. Just an absurd line.
32:23It feels like a game where Houston is going to be completely in control. And I agree with you. Woody Marks is the guy.
32:30Awesome stuff. A quick note, this show is brought to you by Better. Go check out Better. Uh, makes the games a lot
32:36more fun. Download the Better app.
32:38That's BE TR. A great sponsor for this show. Jacob, let everybody know what you have coming out, where they can find
32:44your work. Beyond the Box Score. Yeah, I got uh Theo here every week with me. Got Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points Stata on
32:51every week with me as well. Got a really fun episode coming next week with Ryan and a couple uh guests. that I think
32:58Theo, you're pretty familiar with. Um, that's going to be cool. We're going to do a reddraft, like if we drafted mid-season, if we drafted right now,
33:04what that would look like. Um, and so check that all out. I've got weekly usage and rest of season rankings updates as well. Um, and then we also do
33:13live shows every Tuesday and Thursday if you ever want to come hang out. Live shows at 11 a.m. Eastern time.
33:17>> Yeah, go check out everything over there. Uh, big shout out to Ryan Heath.
33:21Ryan Heath and I also have a FFPC team that's doing quite well. Little Derrick Henry on that one. got Lamar Jackson. We
33:27could really use him back for that one.
33:29So, make sure you check out everything Jacob's putting out and make sure you go check out rotoire.com. That's where you're going to find all of my rankings,
33:35all my articles, all of our tools. Make every week count. Um, the season is going to be done before you know it.
33:42Find the edge you need to win in your fantasy playoffs and get that championship with Rotoire. We'll see you soon.
