10 BOLD Predictions for Week 3 of Fantasy Football
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
41 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 25, 2026
Published
Fri, September 25, 2026
30
Player insights
30
Players mentioned
Topics
Adonai MitchellAlvin KamaraAmon-Ra St. BrownBijan RobinsonBrock BowersBryce YoungBucky IrvingC.J. StroudCam WardCarnell TateChase BrownDalton SchultzDeVonta SmithDontayvion Wicks
Player analysis
Player insights
Adonai Mitchell
NegativeUsage7:08
Adonai Mitchell is noted for a strong start to the season, currently neck-and-neck with Garrett Wilson in target volume, with Mitchell actually holding a slight lead in total targets on the season.
Insight pageAlvin Kamara
PositiveUsage30:31
Nick Kaylee anticipates increased usage for Alvin Kamara out of the backfield in the upcoming game against the Raiders, contributing to a positive outlook for the Saints' offense despite the offensive line facing a tough challenge from Maxx Crosby.
Insight pageAmon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveUsage10:41
Amon-Ra St. Brown is identified as Jared Goff's primary target, making him a key DFS play. Nick Kaylee warns that leaving him in one-on-one coverage is a losing strategy for defenses.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
NegativeProjection21:59
Bijan Robinson remains an elite fantasy asset, though hype has scaled back slightly following his Thursday night performance. He is cited as a historical benchmark for receiving production against the Steelers and for yards after contact efficiency.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveProjection35:41
Nick Kaylee predicts a massive breakout week for Brock Bowers, projecting 8 catches, 125 yards, and a touchdown on 11 targets. Kaylee expects Bowers to finish as the overall TE1 for the week, edging out Trey McBride, with both players projected to score over 20 points. The environment is supported by Kirk Cousins' stable play.
Insight pageBryce Young
PositiveProjection27:12
Nick Kaylee projects Bryce Young as a top-12 quarterback option for the season and specifically a top-8 finisher for Week 3. Despite skepticism about his floor, Kaylee maintains that Young's recent production is sustainable due to a consolidated wide receiver room.
Insight pageBucky Irving
NegativeValue33:10
Nick Kaylee highlights Bucky Irving as a successful RB1 call from the previous week, dismissing doubters who focused on his initial snap share. While Kaylee acknowledges Irving has excellent usage metrics, he currently ranks Bashel Tutin above him for the week.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
PositiveUsage6:33
Nick Kaylee highlights the established familiarity between C.J. Stroud and Dalton Schultz, noting that Schultz serves as a reliable 'safety blanket' for the quarterback.
Insight pageCam Ward
PositiveUsage18:23
Nick Kaylee notes that while Cam Ward is typically not an accurate passer, he charts well above league average in accuracy when getting the ball out in 2.5 seconds or less. Ward has funneled 35% of these quick targets to Carnell Tate.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
PositiveBreakout17:05
Nick Kaylee projects Carnell Tate for a top-20 wide receiver finish in Week 3 against the Giants. Tate has established himself as the Titans' WR1, leading the team with an 81% route rate, a 21% target share, and a 40% air yardage share. He is the primary beneficiary of Cam Ward's quick-throw accuracy, receiving 35% of those targets, and is viewed as a player who must become the focal point of the offense.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveBreakout17:34
Nick Kaylee predicts a breakout game for Chase Brown in Week 3, projecting 25 PPR points and two touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Brown has secured a bellcow role with no threat from the RB2 position, and the team's defensive strength should allow them to lean on the run game, continuing the trend of running backs finding success against Pittsburgh.
Insight pageDalton Schultz
PositiveProjection0:09
Jacob Gibbs projects Dalton Schultz as a top-five tight end for Week 3, expecting 15+ points. This outlook is supported by a 27% first-read target rate from last week and the Texans' ability to exploit Colts defensive personnel with play-action. Schultz is noted as more efficient on a per-opportunity basis than Jake Ferguson and serves as a reliable safety blanket for C.J. Stroud.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveProjection12:27
Nick Kaylee ranks DeVonta Smith as the WR6 for Week 3, citing his status as a top-tier receiver against man coverage, which the Bears utilize at a 43% rate. Smith is coming off a career-high 13 targets and is expected to benefit from the absence of Dallas Goedert. Kaylee and Jacob both express high enthusiasm for his scoring potential this week.
Insight pageDontayvion Wicks
PositiveUsage15:43
Nick Kaylee expects Dontayvion Wicks to see increased usage in Week 3 due to team injuries, making him a viable fantasy option.
Insight pageEmari Demercado
PositiveSleeper38:13
Jacob recommends Emari Demercado as a viable spot start for fantasy managers struggling at the running back position, ranking him as the RB30 for the week.
Insight pageEmmett Johnson
PositiveSleeper24:22
Nick Kaylee projects Emmitt Johnson as an RB30 start for Week 3, highlighting his elite efficiency with a 71% avoided tackle rate on total touches. He is considered the best handcuff in football given Kenneth Walker's current role and is recommended as a trade target for managers looking for high-upside depth.
Insight pageGeno Smith
PositiveValue7:23
Jacob Gibbs recommends Geno Smith as a sneaky, low-cost DFS quarterback option at $4,900 on DraftKings. He is projected to pass for approximately three touchdowns in a high-scoring game environment against the Lions.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveUsage8:21
Jahmyr Gibbs is recommended as a strong DFS play for the Lions in a game expected to be high-scoring and back-and-forth. He is considered a top-tier running back weapon, ranking alongside Kenneth Walker and Bijan Robinson, and is a statistical benchmark for explosive running with eight runs over 15 mph.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
NegativeProjection36:04
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is used as a comparison point by Nick Kaylee regarding the expected target volume and usage ramp-up for Brock Bowers in the upcoming week.
Insight pageJayden Higgins
NegativeUsage0:33
Jacob Gibbs notes that Jaden Higgins would have been in a prime position for high target volume if he had been healthy enough to play, implying his absence impacts the Texans' passing distribution.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
PositiveUsage24:02
Nick Kaylee recommends starting Jaylen Warren as a flex play, describing him as a 'usage monster' who is expected to see significant target volume, making him a viable PPR option despite the Steelers' offensive struggles.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveBreakout23:09
Nick Kaylee identifies Kenneth Walker as a league winner and a top-tier running back weapon, projecting him for 25+ PPR points this week. Because of his heavy workload, Kaylee advises managers to trade for his handcuff, Emmitt Johnson, as a high-priority target.
Insight pageMarquez Valdes-Scantling
NegativeValue15:48
Nick Kaylee ranks Marquez Valdes-Scantling as the WR53, advising managers to wait for confirmation of his role before starting him, despite a soft matchup. Kaylee prefers starting Brian Thomas Jr. or Marvin Harrison Jr. over him.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
NegativeValue26:43
Nick Kaylee suggests that fantasy managers who previously relied on MarShawn Lloyd should pivot to higher-upside options like Emmitt Johnson.
Insight pageNico Collins
NegativeUsage0:33
Jacob Gibbs identifies Nico Collins as a player who would have been in a 'very big' spot for target share if he were healthy, suggesting his absence elevates the roles of other pass-catchers like Dalton Schultz.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveMatchup33:33
Nick Kaylee identifies Parker Washington as a strong start against the Patriots, noting that New England's high 41% blitz rate on first-and-10 creates favorable conditions for Washington's role in the offense.
Insight pageTerrance Ferguson
NegativeBreakout20:01
Nick Kaylee references Terrence Ferguson's breakout performance from the previous week as a historical parallel for the potential breakout expected from Carnell Tate.
Insight pageTony Pollard
NegativeValue25:42
Nick Kaylee uses Tony Pollard as a benchmark for ranking Emmitt Johnson, suggesting that fantasy managers should consider Johnson immediately after Pollard in their rankings.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveProjection36:27
Nick Kaylee notes that while Brock Bowers edges him out for the TE1 spot this week, Trey McBride managers are still in great shape, with McBride projected to score over 20 points.
Insight pageWan'Dale Robinson
NegativeRole26:59
Wan'Dale Robinson is discussed as a potential target in the Titans' offense, though the team has prioritized Carnell Tate over him so far this season.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Dropping bold fantasy football predictions for week three of the season. Theo Greinger right here at Rotoire joined each and every week by
0:07Jacob Gibbs of Beyond the Box score.
0:09Jacob, let's start off right from the top. Last week we had an unbelievable smash week performance from Dalton Schultz. What are you expecting this
0:19week in a huge matchup for Houston?
0:22>> Yeah, Houston really needs a win here. A couple 0 and2 teams, I think they're going to be focused on Schultz as they
0:28were last week. um just given the state of the wide receiver room. I think they really need him to come through in a big
0:33way. So I think that this would have been a very big Nico Collins spot, a very big Jaden Higgins spot if those
0:39guys would have been healthy enough for this game. And the reason I say that is the Colts um are a team that use a lot
0:45of man coverage. Um, and specifically what I'm interested in this game, um, with the lack of man coverage beaters on the Texans, with the lack of, um,
0:56receivers in general, if we might see this Texans team go to a lot more big personnel packages. They have a lot of
1:02tight ends on this team that they like.
1:04This is a, you know, Shawn McVey, you know, that kind of coaching tree here coming in with Nick Kaylee calling the plays, but we haven't seen
1:13much of that. They've actually used a ton of 11 personnel this year, which is I think surprised people. But I think
1:17that has potentially more to do with the fact that they've been playing from behind than anything else. Um they've been trailing basically all year long.
1:24And so if they're able to kind of dictate their terms, play the way that they would like, I think that we could
1:29see a bounceback for David Montgomery in this game. And I think we could see some big play action shots off of the um run
1:36game if they get it going here against a Colts team that has been pretty easy to run on this year. Um, I think this Colts
1:42defense is is near the bottom of the league just in general. Um, and you're going to be able to do what you want
1:47most of the time against this defense is the way that it looks so far. Um, the other thing that's interesting to me
1:51about this matchup is the Colts match base personnel uh to big personnel 72% of the time. So when you do go two tight
1:59ends, three tight ends or whatever, the Colts are one of these defenses that are reactive to that and they'll just basically match with a bigger group of
2:07defenders um in an attempt to slow down the run or whatever. Um and I think in those situations you can take advantage
2:15of that and attack um with the play action game because you'll get maybe softer matchups for for example Daltton Schultz getting him on linebackers more
2:22and more and more even when he is the clear receiving threat among the tight ends. um that are on the field. I still
2:28think he might get advantageous matchups and we might be able to see them funnel targets through him again. 27% first read target rate for Schultz last
2:38week and then we just see obviously the massive massive game. He's a really good player. Um I remember before the season
2:44started I looked at his stats compared to Jake Ferguson's stats. um obviously former teammate there in Dallas over the past three years since that acquisition
2:51here in Houston and he's like better across the board on a per opportunity basis and really just overall like it's a lot closer than people might realize
3:00because Ferguson's been the more fantasy relevant tight end but like this guy's a good player good with the ball in his
3:04hands can actually win routes occasionally which is really unique in the tight end position so I as a top five tight end this week for fantasy
3:12football um I think we might see another huge week so we'll say you know 15 plus points and I think you might even get a
3:19week sort of similar to last week.
3:22>> Yeah. And I think people who were shocked by last week are not really examining the box score. I mean, you
3:27talk about a top five tight end this week. I think I'm fully there with you.
3:31I think he's right around tight end five for me alongside guys like Sam Leaporta.
3:36The usage was outstanding last week, but he also had eight targets in week one.
3:40And Jacob, it's like a Mandela effect for for last year where people don't fully realize like Daltton Schultz had 106 targets, which is an elite number
3:49for a tight end. He had 82 catches last year. So, he's been on a really solid run. We know the familiarity with CJ
3:56Strad now and the like the sort of the safety blanket role he's in. And I think any week without Nico Collins, uh,
4:02you've need to really really elevate Daltton Schultz, but I think he's their clear number two target in the passing game for the rest of the season. and I
4:09think he's going to be maintain a low-end tight end one role, but he's got a very safe floor moving forward for the
4:15for the rest of the year. My bold prediction, I tried this one week one, and week one it didn't work. Um, week
4:22one I I said it was going to be a big Garrett Wilson game. I'm going to double down on it in week three and I think a
4:28lot of the talk has been Adai Mitchell's really strong start and how Mitchell and Wilson are like neck andneck in targets
4:34right now with Mitchell actually having more targets on the season. I think this is an unbelievable opportunity for Garrett Wilson to have a huge week and I
4:43think it's a sneaky Gino Smith week. I think if you're playing DFS and you want to use a super cheap quarterback, Gino's
4:50like 4,900 on DraftKings and you can obviously stack him with Garrett Wilson.
4:56You could stack him with Mitchell. You could stack him with any assorted Lions.
5:01You know, throw your Ammon Ros, your Jir Gibbs in there cuz I think this is going to be a game that's going to going to
5:06fly over. I think that this the Detroit Lions defense is really struggling to stop people and the Jets are struggling to run the ball. We saw the Green Bay
5:13Packers completely shut them down on the ground last week. So, I think they're going to lean into the passing game and
5:18I think that's going to benefit Garrett Wilson in a major way. Wilson's going to have eight catches for 130 yards and a
5:25touchdown this week. It's going to be a similar output to what we saw from Chris Ave in week one where put 180 receiving
5:33yards on the board against this Lions team. And I think Gino is going to pass for about three touchdowns this week. I
5:40think he's going to have a solid week.
5:41So Garrett Wilson is going to remind everyone that he is a really strong wide receiver one usage wise. He's going to
5:50separate himself a little bit from the field and he's going to be the main reason that the Jets are going to scare
5:55the hell out of the Lions this week. I think the Lions do get the win, but I think it's going to be way closer than
6:00some people think and I think it's an over environment.
6:03>> Yeah, man. I think that makes a lot of sense. Um, I'm pretty intrigued by this game. I think it makes a ton of sense to
6:07go here aggressively if you are playing DFS. These are two defenses that are super blitzheavy. Um, use man coverage and I think that that just uh can
6:18facilitate these um explosive plays, these like back and forth type of games.
6:24Um, obviously we've seen that with the Lions. Um, the Jets also are a team that blitz a lot. So, I I even like the um
6:30the Lions side of it a lot. I mean, that's a little bit more obvious, but when Jared Goff has been blitzed, he's
6:35actually been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Um, he sometimes struggles against pressure, but just against the blitz, he'll pick
6:41you apart. Um, and his top target by far is obviously a Monor St. Brown. Um, so if you're going to leave yourself, you
6:48know, in one-on-one situations against Sun God, you're going to lose over and over and over. Um, could see some big JMO splash plays in this game, and that
6:55just gets it cooking, right? That just gets it back and forth, back into Gino's hands playing catchup. So, I think that
7:00makes a ton of sense.
7:03>> Yeah, I'm I'm into it. And we'll keep an eye on the Lions offensive line. They're dealing with some injuries, but on the
7:10flip side, you bring up the blitz heavy nature of Detroit. New York looks really good in terms of pass blocking this
7:15year. They've got a number of strong players there. So, I think this is a a situation where we're chasing this game
7:21fantasy-wise. Um, and hey, maybe Bree Hall could catch a couple more passes.
7:25People love seeing that one as well. A quick mention that this show is brought to you by Better. Uh make your picks, go
7:31more or less, and put your football knowledge into the test. Get in on the action. Make every game more exciting with Better. Go check out Better today.
7:39Uh Jacob, we're going to continue this conversation. You you have a really good one. Uh it's a Monday night prediction, but uh which player is set to smash?
7:47>> I think Data Smith just keeps it rolling. Um so I really liked last week's spot for Smith. Um, and partially
7:54that's because the Titans have allowed the highest catchable target rate on first three targets this year for the fantasy points data suite. Um, they've
8:03been very easy to attack that way. The Bears are similar. Um, and the Lions actually have the third highest rate, by
8:09the way. So, for your Garrett Wilson call out, I think that looks good. Um, I also am intrigued by this because the
8:15Bears have been using a ton of man coverage. They're using man coverage 43% of the time. They're using single high safety looks 66% of the time. And to me,
8:25like Devont Smith is at the top of the list, the players that you don't want to leave your quarterbacks out on an island
8:31against. Um, so I I I feel pretty good about this spot. It obviously like could go um arai if if the Bears can't keep
8:42up, if it goes if it just becomes a huge like Saquon Barkley game or whatever, if the Eagles um are able to just control
8:48this game on the ground. But we saw last week that they really um were aggressive in testing the the stuff that I think
8:56they want to do with Jaylen Herz. More of the let's throw over the middle.
9:00Let's actually try to unlock that. Um they did do that against the Titans last week. And I think this might be another
9:06really soft matchup where they're able to do that and get some momentum rolling as they've got some difficult matchups coming up, you know. Um so I I've got my
9:14eye on Smith as like one of the top receivers uh on the board for week three. I've got him right up there with
9:20Garrett Wilson. Um yeah, Devont Smith have a wide receiver six. Wilson have a wide receiver nine this week.
9:27>> Yeah, Devont Smith a careerhigh with 13 targets last week. Um this is I mean I think he tied a careerh high but Dvontto
9:35Smith completely locked in in this role.
9:37No Dallasart this week. So that's is sort of tightening things up. Uh Dante Wix I think will get some usage. Maybe
9:43we see a little bit of Mai Lemon. I know you talked about Lemon last week. sort of your expectations without we're we're
9:49going to go back to the well here. Um I'm I'm optimistic for Lemon this week.
9:54I think they're going to sort of force the hands of Philadelphia to use all three wide receivers. Where you at on
10:01Lemon for this particular week?
10:03>> Um I think it it makes sense that this could be a great spot for either Wix or or Devont Smith just cuz I think that
10:09they can get what they want down the field. They're great. They're both good against fan coverage. Lemon obviously I think could pop in this and they might
10:16want to get him going, but it's just been frustrating to see him out there running cardio. Um, so I've got him
10:23ranked pretty low. Um, but obviously the matchup is soft. Um, I've got him at wide receiver 53. So it's like I'd
10:29rather started the Brian Thomas Jr. or Marvin Harrison Jr. if you happen to be somebody who's stuck with those guys.
10:34Um, but generally speaking, I'm looking to wait and and get confirmation of what the role might be for Lemon in terms of
10:41more downfield looks. We just haven't had him yet.
10:44>> Yeah, I'm I'm still going to continue to to stash Lemon. I mean, I don't think he's a guy you want to throw out there,
10:49but I do think he's a stash. Um, my next bold prediction is on a running back.
10:54And I think this is the Chase Brown game for fantasy managers who have been waiting on Brown. Uh, last week, you
11:00know, the volume was fantastic, the production wasn't. He had 23 touches. He had 21 touches in week one. Week one, he
11:08finds the end zone. He scores 18 plus points. Last week, 11.2 two points. And Chase Brown, we saw him sort of living
11:15around the 10th overall pick when we got into late August, early September. And I think a lot of the narrative was the
11:22splits with Joe Burrow were so good. He averaged 20 plus points per I think that was a Jacob Gibbs uh stat that everybody
11:29just started repeating over and over again. But Jacob, you you dropped that stat with me this summer about the splits where I think Chase Brown was
11:37like 21 points per game last year in games that Joe Burrow started. Um, and I think a lot of people got behind that
11:43narrative throughout draft season, but I think we've got a new narrative for Chase Brown. The the usage is completely Bellcow. There's lit literally no
11:52pressure on him whatsoever from the RB2.
11:55Like we're not worried at all about those like random Sam per weeks anymore.
12:00And then you also get into Cincinnati, I think, has a real defense. And I've heard a lot of people push back on it
12:06this week where they've said, "Hey, let's see the the Bengals against a real offense before we sort of crown them.
12:13We'll see them against Jacksonville in week four, but I'm sold. I think this pass rush and this front seven and this
12:19defensive secondary are all strong. I understand that that there's some some problems here. Obviously, they let Daltton Schultz uh tear them up, so
12:27maybe the linebackers uh covering tight ends. Uh we saw Bucky affecting them as a pass catcher in week one. Like, they're not a perfect defense, but I
12:35think they're a really good defense for us in fantasy football. And I think they're a good enough defense for Cincinnati to make a really deep run
12:42this year in the AFC playoffs. And I think that's going to eventually help Chase Brown on a weekly basis because it's going to be less of these
12:50Cincinnati sort of trying to get in in high shootout environments, feeling like no lead is safe. And I think they can
12:56lean on Chase Brown. I think it starts this week against Pittsburgh. I think that the Bengals are going to control this game. They're going to win it
13:02somewhere around the 27 to 14, 27 to 17 type score. And I think Chase Brown gives you 25 points. I think Brown's
13:11going to have a very strong fantasy game. and it's going to continue the trend of running backs doing well against this Pittsburgh Steelers uh
13:19defense. We saw Bejon in week one really really dominated as a receiver. We saw Trayvon Henderson rip off a 39yd touchdown run in week two and I think
13:29we're going to continue it this week.
13:30Chase Brown finds the end zone twice, scores 25 PPR points.
13:36>> I like it. Yeah, you said like let's get them a real test. It ain't coming this week.
13:41>> Not this week. They It's very interesting like this the the Bengals are going um like sub packages more than basically any defense where they're just
13:51like even on first and 10 whatever like any it doesn't really matter what you do personnel wise on offense so far it just
13:57seems like they're just like we got the guys up front you know so we can just drop back. Um we don't have to get real
14:02aggressive loading the box at all. They have the lowest loaded box rate. Um so it's like we just trust Dexter Lawrence
14:08and we're just we we've got the big guys up front. So, good luck. And the Steelers have been by far the worst
14:16offense if you just look at like how they've done in these situations where they have to go against like sub packages that are like run on us, you
14:23know? Um they're like for whatever reason just unwilling to, which is weird cuz I feel like the Steelers should have the guys up front to be able to at least
14:31be a decent run game, but instead they just continue to draw back and that's gone horribly. Um so maybe it gets
14:39better this week. But I I don't know. I I like want to play Jaylen Warren where I have him just because he's seems like
14:46he's going to be a usage monster. Could get a lot of targets. Um so hopefully we can just like PPR scam our way to Warren
14:52points. But just in general, I think this could be a really ugly game for the Steelers, which then puts the ball back
14:56in the Bengals hands over and over and over.
15:00>> Yeah, I ranked Warren pretty highly in my flex rankings this week at Rotoire.
15:04It feels kind of dangerous. Um but I do agree with you. If if any Steeler is going to thrive, it's probably him. And
15:10then I'll give a shout out to to Jim Coventry who brought up the Schultz game and then also talked about how Pat
15:17Frymouth has had a history of having strong performances against the Bengals.
15:22So maybe that's him. But it's it's a Chase Brown week and I and we're going to keep an eye on that one. I think
15:27drafters who took Brown in the first round are going to be feeling really good about things after the game this week. Uh, Jacob, we'll continue this uh,
15:35bold predictions and you've got a player that I think's been really frustrating to fantasy managers who were drafting him for his upside outcomes, his
15:42pedigree, and sort of the alpha profile that caused him to be such a highly drafted player. What is going to happen
15:48this week with Carnell Tate against the New York Giants?
15:51>> Yeah. So, let's go with um, a Carnell Tate breakout game. To what extent, it's hard to ever really say um, in terms of
15:59forming expectations for this Titans offense. Um, like on paper I'm like this looks like a good Tony Pard spot. This looks like a good Carnell Tade spot, but
16:06it's like will it matter? I don't know.
16:09Um, what I do know is that on paper the Giants look like one of the easiest defenses to attack all across the board.
16:17Um, so maybe that means we're going to get a freaking Wel Robinson narrative game here. But so far that hasn't really
16:23been a priority for the the Titans.
16:25They've been locked in on Carnell Tate.
16:28Um, we've seen a 30% first read target rate funneled Tate's way through two games, which I'm really encouraged by that feel. Like out of the gate, um,
16:37that feels really good. I thought it was going to be a lot of Wanddale stuff with Tate doing more like field stretching,
16:43sacrificial X stuff out of the gate.
16:45Thought it might take time for him to find his footing, especially given the way that the preseason went, but they've just treated him like the wide receiver
16:52won. Like his first three target rate is higher than the great Jaylen Coker. It's higher than Jaylen Wadd or Christian Watson or even Denzel Boston. Like it's
17:02high. There's not there's no so far there's no Wel Robinson scam happening.
17:05Tate's a full-time player. Leads the Titans with an 81% route rate. Has a 21% target share. That also leads the Titans
17:12and a 40% air yardage share. And so he gets a match up here against the Giants.
17:17No team has allowed a higher catchable target rate on first free throws than well Tate's Titans. They have the highest rate, but the Giants are very
17:25close second. And just in general, they have the highest catchable target rate on the year um on all throws at 93%.
17:32That's what the Giants catchable target rate is on all throws this year, which is insane. The league averages 82%.
17:37Yeah.
17:38>> Um the Dolphins are second at 90%.
17:40They're like by far the highest. So Tate's getting first three targets.
17:45Giants been easy to attack with first three targets. Um, and then the other thing that I like in this matchup is,
17:51and I don't know for sure if I just want to look at the numbers and say this is how it's going to go, but the Giants
17:56haven't gotten pressure this year. Um, I think they have the talent to get pressure. We saw them get some pressure in week one, but last week was pretty
18:05ugly um, across the board for the Giants. So maybe they bounce back here um because obviously the Titans offensive line is not played very well.
18:13Um, but when Camort has gotten the ball out quickly, he actually charts well above league average in terms of accuracy according to fantasy points
18:21data this year. Um, it's pretty rare that we find any split where Cam Ward charts above average and accuracy at this point in his career. Um, but when
18:31he's gotten it out quickly, so I'm looking at 2.5 seconds or less in terms of time to throw, he actually charts
18:36well above league average and accuracy.
18:38And he's funneled 35% of those targets to Tate in terms of the quick targets.
18:42They've been going to Carell Tate more than any player by far. Uh the Giants are bottom third in quick pressures.
18:49They actually rank 28th in pressure rate overall, which shocked me. Um and so again, if you look at like the splits
18:54when Ward has not been pressured, he's been close to league average and he's hammered his first read at a really high
19:00rate. 84% first read target rate when not pressured. For Cam Ward, the league average is 75%. Um all of this, I think,
19:08leads us to Tate potentially. So, we'll say Tate has a top 20 game at wide receiver this week. Is actually a
19:16meaningful player um that you can use, which is much much more than we've been getting from basically any Tennessee Titans through two weeks. So, I feel
19:24good about this matchup. Um hopefully Kim Ward can deliver some accurate balls and we can get get some fun games here
19:30going for Tate.
19:32>> Catch every drive, every play, and every touchdown poolside stadium swim at Circa Resort and Casino in downtown Las Vegas.
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20:01Yeah, we had it last week with the Terrence Ferguson breakout. Maybe we can run it back this week with Carnell Tate.
20:06You mentioned that Giants defense. I mean, all of this the stats are going to skew um against them after the Devonte
20:13Adams game. Unbelievable. Adams only had one game last year with over a 100red receiving yards for the Rams and he goes
20:19for nearly 200 against this Giants team.
20:21So, lot of pressure on New York this week, but I would love to see a Carnell Tate breakout. I have a lot of him in
20:28Dynasty. I actually have a good amount in reddraft sitting on benches. I'd love to see some big breakout performance so we could actually build on. Uh so, I
20:35hope you are right.
20:35>> I mean, you've watched a bunch of tape film. Obviously, you don't want to say he's Dvonte Adams, but it's like,
20:39doesn't he kind of win in the way that we saw Dvonte Adams winning last week where it's like he can just go up over
20:43these guys and win?
20:45>> Yeah. Last year, we compared him to Devonte Devonte Adams a little bit. Um, and I think there that was one of the
20:51the comps coming out from like the truly bullish takes for him as a prospect.
20:56There was also some George Pickins comps going out there. So, like um you know, in terms of talent, there's a reason the
21:02guy was drafted so early and I think we're going to see it. It's not going to be an Elic Aman or leading this
21:08receiving room. Um, you know, when we get a couple weeks from now, I think it's going to be Carnell Tate. They've
21:12got to look to establish Tate. It It's just he's got to become the focal point of this offense at some point this year.
21:18For me, you talked about a rookie. I'm going to talk about a couple of old guys. And I'm going to talk about a team
21:24that we're used to seeing dominating that I think we're going to get right back to it. The Kansas City Chiefs. This
21:29we did it last week where we went up against Miami. And I guess I'm I'm picking on what you would probably
21:35describe as the worst defensive secondary in the NFL right now. Um, we went up against him last week in the bold predictions. I said Brock Pury was
21:43going to put up this smash week. That was a check. Uh, I said Mike Evans was going to go with him. Evans was going to
21:48be a top six or so receiver. That didn't work out. So, we got half of the prediction correct. I'm going to double
21:54down. We're going to continue to attack this this painfully bad Miami defensive uh secondary. And we're going to do it with the Chiefs. And I think the Chiefs
22:02have fully got their swagger back and a lot of the talk has been about Kenneth Walker and rightfully so. Walker looks
22:09like the league winner. I think a lot of the Kenneth Walker versus Bejun Robinson talk, people are sort of uh scaling that
22:15back a little bit after what Bejian did on Thursday Night Football, but Walker's still right up there with Gibbs and Bejon in terms of like running back
22:23weapons of mass destruction. And I think Walker does it again this week. He's going to have a 25 plus point in PPR
22:30scoring, but it's going to be the veterans. Patrick Mahomes finishes as the QB2 overall on the week. The Kansas City Chiefs are going to hang 40 points
22:40on the board against the Miami Dolphins.
22:4240. We're right in that one inc. And you're going to see another top five performance from Travis Kelce. And you're going to see a touchdown, another
22:51touchdown from Xavier Worthy. I think he gets loose for a long one. The Chiefs who got their swagger back. They're going to hang the 40 on Miami this week
23:00and then they're going to take care of business next week in Vegas. The Chiefs are going to be 4-0 to start the year
23:05back to normaly and I think a lot of drafters who drafted Kelsey and Mahomes late um are going to be just loving life
23:12after this week. Your thoughts on your Kansas City Chiefs?
23:16>> I love it. I I think it makes a lot of sense. I mean, you said you didn't get the Mike Evans call out last week, but
23:21you certainly got the Brock Pitt one.
23:22That was like one of the best quarterback games we've seen in a while.
23:25It literally looked like Brock Puri could do whatever he wanted. He was just perfect out there. I think we might see
23:31something similar here from Mahomes, who does seem like he's playing better. Um, and the Dolphins have just been unbelievably easy to attack, which is
23:40basically what the expectation was. But that's I mean, that's like complete confirmation through two weeks that that's what this defense looks like. I
23:47just don't think they have the talent unfortunately. like their guys are playing hard, but I just don't think they have the talent um to keep up with
23:55a team like San Francisco or even Kansas City. Um the thing is like I do think this is going to be sometimes maybe a
24:03frustrating matchup where it's like you don't know where the points are going to go. Um I think you can just funnel it to
24:11your first read if you want. And so what we've seen is that's been Kelsey. I think we could see a big Xavier Worthy
24:16game here. They've tried to get him going. Um, but also like I think you could even if you want, if you're
24:22desperate, if you're playing in deep leagues, whatever, you could go with him at Johnson in this game if you want to.
24:26Um, obviously Kenneth Walker is going to get whatever he wants early in the game, but I could see them, they've talked
24:31about wanting to get Johnson in more and and he's earned it and they want to, you know, probably keep Kenneth Walker from
24:38wearing down because I think they clearly have playoff aspirations after a 2 and 0 start. Um, and if ever there were a spot to to just, you know, let
24:45Walker chill after the first two or three quarters, it's this one. And Emma Johnson has been unbelievably good as a receiver, as a rusher. Like, he's just
24:55creating yards after contact like crazy.
24:57People might look at his yards per carry or whatever and not think that he's been that good. But like, if you watch this
25:01guy, he has, if you divi, if you divide his avoided tackle rate or his avoided tackle total, excuse me, by his total
25:09touches, the number is 71%.
25:11Uh Kenneth Walker is like the highest in the league at like 50%. Emma Johnson's is over 70%. He's just been ridiculous.
25:18This is a carryover from what we saw in Nebraska. It's a carryover from what we saw in the preseason. Um I think that
25:24this Miami defense might have their hands full with with Emit Johnson who literally never takes a playoff. It doesn't matter if the Chiefs are up 40
25:30to zero. Like he's going to be playing like his life depends on on every single touch. And I think we might actually get
25:37some usable uh production from him in this game. I've got him at like running back 30. So, it's like after like Tony
25:43Pard, just go with him in my opinion.
25:45He's basically the next up.
25:47>> Yeah, I love that. And I think when we're chasing like these, you know, if you're if you're in a bad spot at
25:53running back, chase a a great offensive ecosystem in a great matchup instead of like chasing like this this potential volume in a bad situation. And I think a
26:03lot of fantasy managers who were using guys like maybe a Marshon Lloyd last night could start looking at guys like Emtt Johnson. We've talked about EMTT
26:11Johnson as a great trade target. Unless the Kenneth Walker manager has Emtt Johnson, try to trade for EMTT Johnson.
26:19He's like the best handcuff in football based on the role that Kenneth Walker has right now and the talent that Johnson has displayed. And Andy Reid has
26:27hyped him up as well. I think they really know what they have in EMTT Johnson. What an improvement talent-wise at the running back position for Kansas
26:34City this year on the two deep. Just unbelievable. Chiefs are going to put up a number this week on the Dolphins. I I
26:42will drop another prediction here. We got to get a your running You've got a good running back one here and a
26:47follow-up from last week, but I'm going to sort of double down with what we've talked about the last couple weeks on on
26:52my shows. Bryce Young and Tyler Shuck.
26:55And I think there's going to be people out there waiting for the floor to f fall fall out from underneath one of
27:00these two guys. And I don't think it's going to happen. I think what we're seeing is real. I think these are both
27:04looking like top 12 options at quarterback. We talked about this on your show the other day. I'm on with Jacob every single week on Mondays over
27:13at Beyond the Box score. Make sure you go check that one out. But we talked about Chuck. We talked about Bryce
27:18Young. I said Bryce Young is going to finish as a QB1 this season. Uh you talked about Tyler Shuck. And I think
27:24we're we're both spot on and I think they do it again this week. Entering week uh three, Bryce Young is the QB2 in
27:31points per game in a lot of formats. And Tyler Shuck is the QB6 in points per game. I think that both of these guys
27:37are going to finish top eight at the position this week. Once again, I think that Carolina goes into Cleveland and wins a really close game. I think
27:46Watson's actually going to look all right and this Browns offense is going to look fine. And I think this is something like a let's call it like a
27:522726 game. And then I think the Saints uh the Raiders are going to do do enough to keep this game interesting, but ult
28:01ultimately I think the Saints win by about a touchdown. I think it's another high-scoring environment. We saw the Saints last week make a statement
28:08against the Baltimore Ravens. I think the Raiders are going to keep it about as close, about a touchdown win for for
28:14New Orleans, but I think it's going to come down to Bryce Young. Jacob and I talked about just how consolidated this
28:20wide receiver room is for him. It's going to be Bryce Young looking to his wide receivers. It's going to be Tyler
28:25Shuck with another game where I think the pass pass attempt volume is going to be outstanding. Another big game for a
28:31lav. Another solid game for Devon and even a little bit more Alvin Kamar out of the backfield. So, I think both of
28:37these quarterbacks are going to be a tremendous spot. Both finished top eight on the week.
28:41>> I like it. I'm a little bit nervous about the Saints line. Um, I just had Dan Fornick on to discuss offensive line
28:47over at Beyond the Box score and they're one of the teams where that that unit has dropped pretty significantly since um, preseason for him. Um, and that's
28:57mostly just due to injury. Um, so they'll have their hands full with Crosby and the Raiders who are are fired up at 2 and 0. This has been I think
29:04this could be a really fun game. Um, and I I think obviously there's clear appeal um, if it does get into a back and forth
29:12game where both these teams are playing fast. Um, and you got two really really smart coordinators here. So, I I like
29:17the idea of um, taking shots on it. I think a is obviously just set to continue to smash. Um, and I think it it
29:24makes a lot of sense to focus on this one for DFS. I'm I'm just I say this every week though, Theo. I feel like
29:29every week I'm like I'm a little bit nervous the Shuck stuff the bottom might fall out or whatever. like he might get
29:34heated up and it might be a problem and it's like nah he just keeps printing. He just keeps printing.
29:39>> Fast forward to week 15. Tyler Shuck is is QB5 of the week. You know, Jacob, I've said this for 14 straight weeks,
29:44but I'm worried about Tyler Shuck this week. Last week you made a great call out. There was a bunch of the Bashel
29:51Tutin faders and non-believers, the doubters after week one pointing to his snapshare. um all kinds of doom and gloom despite him leading the backfield
30:01in fantasy points in week one and you came out here you you rested everybody's worries and concerns and you told everybody that that Tuton would be an
30:10RB1 this week you got it right 12 on the week what do you expect from Bashel Tutin this week against the New England
30:16Patriots >> yeah this is an interesting spot here where um I don't want to disrespect the Patriots defense they've they've played
30:23pretty well um I think they're well coached um but I Jacksonville was really well coached, too. Um, and so we saw
30:30even last week where the Jags didn't end up put up a lot a lot of points. We did see Ton get in the end zone. Um,
30:34continue to see him get a lot of carries. And, um, the Jags are one of the offensive lines that have really
30:40improved in Danforick's rankings. I think that's mostly due to their pass protection. But either way, that's just great in general, like for them to be
30:49approaching like middle of the pack and not like, you know, this could be a, you know, Green Bay Packer situation if
30:55things go wrong. You know, that's kind of how we felt going into the year with the Jags. I think Liam Con has done a
30:59great job coaching that unit up and they're performing well and so that's good and and helps the overall offensive environment and obviously Ton benefits
31:06from that in a big way. Um he's just been fantastic at creating yards after contact, which is something that Cohen really values. And I think we continue
31:14to see more and more touches go his way.
31:16And I think that's going to be the case as long as he doesn't like fumble or anything. As long as he keeps playing
31:20the way that he is. Um he's I mean, if you look after week two, he was right between Jonathan Taylor and Bejian
31:25Robinson in yards after contact in total on the year. Obviously, his per touch numbers were even better than that. Um just wild stuff from Tuton so far. And I
31:35think that this is clearly the vision for him in terms of the skill set, but we just didn't know cuz he got such a
31:40limited role last year. Um, now we're seeing him actually in a full-time or close to it role. Um, not just like kind
31:47of a short yardage role and stuff that he was doing last year and we're starting to see some big plays. We're
31:52starting to see some efficiency and stuff like that. Um, so love that. Um, specifically why I'm interested in the matchup is that this Patriots defense is
32:01one that does not match personnel. So, they use sub packages 87% of the time on first and 10. The league averages 58%.
32:10So, they're going to be showing uh lighter boxes and just in general not as much beef uh around the line of
32:19scrimmage um compared to most defenses.
32:22I'm really curious how Liam Cohen will choose to approach that. For what it's worth, this season um and last season too when Liam Cohen was facing sub
32:31packages on first went very runheavy. Um and so that I think makes sense even though the run game wasn't great necessarily that he um would try to run
32:40into those more pass leaning defenses.
32:43Um and then the other thing that's interesting on this in this matchup is that uh the Patriots have a 41% blitz
32:50rate on first and 10. Uh the league averages 29% just in general they blitzed a lot. Um I look at first and 10
32:56just because I want to try to I mean with a twoe sample size like any can throw it off in terms of the way the
33:03game flow has gone has happened to go in these games whereas first and 10 is more neutral. Um so they they blitzed a lot.
33:09Um I think that that's the way that Stevens wants to play is blitz heavy and aggressive with man coverage and stuff
33:13like that. So obviously to me this feels like a good Parker Washington game again. Um, but also I think it's interesting that we could see maybe more
33:20targets go to to more screen targets.
33:22This is a really niche note, but um, when Liam Cohen has been blitzed, he has more he's dialed up more screens than
33:30any coach since the start of last year against the Blitz. Specifically, he's thrown screens to running backs 53% of the time. The league averages 33%. So,
33:39all of this to me feels like good for Tuton. good usage notes, good matchup notes, and he's just an ascending player
33:46that I'm excited about. So, I want to target him. Even if like the Patriots on paper are like not necessarily a good
33:52match up for running backs have been a pretty solid defense overall, this feels like it could be a good spot for Tuton.
34:00Basically any week where Toutton could get the ball in his hands a little bit more than normal, I want to target him
34:06because I think he I think we're just a week away is how it always feels where it's like we're going to see this long
34:13play from Toton, right, that we just haven't seen quite yet. Um he's given us the consistency and the yards after contact and all of that, but we just
34:19haven't really seen like the play that we know is in there. Um what if it's this week? you know, if it's this week,
34:23then all of a sudden he's instead of running back 12 like he finished last week, maybe he's freaking running back two or three, you know, like if he gets
34:30that long run. Um, yeah, I'm intrigued by both him and your boy Trayvon Henderson on the other side of this in
34:36terms of the explosive play ability and the ability to get this game heated up a little bit with some of those long runs.
34:42We're here for it. I I wish I would have dropped a a great bold prediction for Trayvon, but uh Bashel Tutin the stat
34:48sort of bouncing around on X this week that I thought was interesting. is he leads the NFL in runs over 15 miles per
34:55hour. There's so much charting data this year, but he's got like 12 12 of them and I think Jir Gibbs had what like
35:01nine.
35:01>> I think Jib is second eight. Yeah, >> eight or yeah. So eight. Um so Tutin's like right there. We're just we just
35:08need one of them to to rip off. Jacob, it's like take it to the house on like a big run. Maybe something similar to what
35:14we saw from Trayvon last week. And also what I think is interesting is the total targets to running backs this year. They
35:21only have six targets to the running back position. We would love to see uh a Tutin week where maybe he catches three
35:27or four balls. I think that could happen. Only three catches on the year.
35:31So, uh Tutin is a really good player for you to trade for. I had him on the trade show yesterday. Make sure you go check
35:37that one out as well. Final prediction for me, and you know I had to do it.
35:41Anybody who followed my content all offseason long. Uh it's Brock Bowers week. Brock Bowers returns this week.
35:48Brock Bower's eight catches, 125 yards, and a touchdown on 11 targets. And guess what? Kurt Cousins hasn't been bad this year. He's been good. Cousins has six
35:58touchdown passes this year. I think he finds Bowowers for a touchdown this week. Um, we don't see quite the JSN experience, but I think this is a ramp
36:07up game. I think we're going to see true usage smash weeks for Bowowers in the upcoming weeks where you'll start seeing
36:13a 14 target game here, maybe a 15 target game there. And I think we will actually see like the dream scenarios for
36:20Bowowers. But this week, it's going to be enough to get people going. Brock Bowers finishes as the tight end one overall in the week ahead of Trey
36:30McBride.
36:30>> My dynasty teams need it so bad, Theo.
36:33Please, please be true. Um on Tune, by the way, I'm going to say top 10 running back. I've got him at running back 18.
36:38I've got him above Bucky Irving who has like even better usage. Um I've got him above I'm already in Hampton. I'm
36:43curious what you think about this. Don't him and Hampton map out really similarly in the ways that they get touches. I
36:48know Hampton has the better probability I would say of getting to like 20 plus touches or something like that as we saw
36:54last week. Um but like in terms of where their value is coming from, it's like we want explosive plays. We're not getting
36:58it really from the Chargers at all. Um we want red zone work. We want touchdowns. There's not been a ton of
37:04receiving for either of these guys. Um, so really just hoping for a big play or something in the run game and just like
37:11getting there from from volume. Um, I see them pretty similarly this week.
37:15Vegas sees the two teams pretty similar this week. Um, do you have any thoughts on those two? Cuz I think Hampton is
37:20people are clinging to this like running back one. Hope for him. Um, I've got a running back 21 this week.
37:26>> Yeah, it feels really like tenuous when it comes to Omar and Hampton where the volume was terrific last week. I think
37:32they're trying to force feed him the ball. He's got the two touchdowns in two weeks, but the yardage numbers are very
37:37similar to Toutton. Um, and the offense, we feel so much better about Jacksonville. So, I think Tutin's a little bit overrated as a fantasy asset
37:46right now, especially in reddraft. And I think Tutin is a little bit underrated.
37:50I think that, like you said, they're closer as commodities than maybe most people that are rostering Hampton would like you to believe in. Um, a lot
37:58changes from the time we're drafting and we've got a ton of worries about those Chargers. So, let's do a quick rundown
38:04of our bold predictions before we get out of here. For accountability sake, Jacob all over Daltton Schultz this week. Thinks it's going to be a top five
38:12week for him. I said Garrett Wilson is going to have a smash week this week.
38:16Uh, big easy wide receiver one score for him. Jacob has the same enthusiasm level for Devont Smith. I say Chase Brown is
38:25going to have 25 PPR points, two touchdown scores against the Pittsburgh Steelers. We're looking for a Carnell Tate breakout game according to Jacob. I
38:35am here for it. Uh we talked about the Kansas City Chiefs. I said that the Chiefs are going to score 40 points this
38:41week. Um this is going to be another Walker game, a huge Mahomes game. He's going to finish as the QB2. Kelsey top
38:48five tight end. Jacob wants you to consider EMTT Johnson as a spot start if you're down bad at running back. He's um
38:55he's his RB30 on the week. And then I said that um that Young, Bryce Young and Tyler Shuck are both going to finish as
39:03top eight scorers at the quarterback position. And then Brock Bowers, I wrote in the show sheet, I just went back into
39:08it. I said top two tight end this week, but I am upgrading it. Tight end one overall on the week. Brock Bowers, Trey
39:15McBride managers are going to be in shambles when they see Bowers. Now, Trey McBride managers, you're in great shape, but Bowers does edge him out this week.
39:22Both players go for 20 plus. Uh Jacob, where can people find your work? What do you have coming out before the start of
39:27the game Sunday?
39:28>> Check us out at Beyond the Boxore, YouTube, uh Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. But, um, we're putting a lot of, uh, effort into the YouTube
39:35product, too, to make that good where you you've got cool visuals to go with all this. Just did a deep dive on the
39:40fantasy data, uh, suite. Um, fantasy points data suite 2.0. Um, they've got such a cool product, Theo. You know me, like I I saw this and I couldn't help
39:49myself. Just like had a manic episode was in there for like 6 hours. Um, so it's overwhelming the amount of stuff
39:55that's in there, but that's really cool.
39:56You can do these player comps and everything. So, I've been digging into like what the usage has been for these players so far, like what type of routes
40:03they're running, where they're how their teams are using them and wanting to get the ball into their hands, and then like
40:07how that compares to other players to give people just a better idea of what we're looking at with Devon Vele or what
40:13we're looking at with Denzel Boston or whatever. Um, in terms of how likely it is to continue and stuff like that. Um,
40:19so you can find those usage videos on Beyond the Box where we do that every Wednesday. And then we also have live
40:24chats on Tuesday and Thursday at 11:00 a.m. Eastern time if you ever want to come hang out in the chat with us. Um,
40:30we do like Start Sits and stuff. I know you do that here, Theo. Um, I was watching your Start Sit Show yesterday
40:34and I was seeing some familiar names.
40:36So, love that. Love that we've got the crossover here between the two channels.
40:39Having a lot of fun doing two episodes each week with you.
40:42>> Yeah. Make sure you check out everything Jacob's doing. Beyond the Box Score is fire. Um, and make sure you stick with
40:47us here. I'm going to drop a couple more shows before the start of the games on Sunday. We're going full volume approach
40:52right here at Rotoire, trying to help you crush your leagues this season.
