0:00What is cracking everybody? James Co.
0:02Matt Harmon here with you. We're using reception perception tools and data to help you in your best ball contest.
0:09Please go check out DraftKings for all of your best ball best baseball best ball needs. But man, today we are talking about wide receiver debates.
0:18This guy or that guy. In the very first round, we're going to go through the first three rounds. Rounds one, two, and
0:24three. In round number one, Matt Harmon, Justin Jefferson is going one pick ahead of CD Lamb. Who you got?
0:35>> This one is tight. Uh because listen, I think CD Lamb is going to have a big year this year.
0:42>> You know, I bounce back like he it's almost kind of weird that he's, you know, he seems like he's getting a
0:47little bit of shade at this point for the way he played last year. Let's not forget, of course, George Pickins was
0:51there. that was a big part of it. But also guy was playing through a high ankle sprain last year as well. Um I
0:57talked to CD Lamb after that season uh at the Super Bowl this past year and he mentioned like yeah you know uh high
1:05ankle sprain won't just like it could ruin your career. Not just ruin your season. I was like shoot that could that
1:10could ruin your uh that could ruin your your season. He's like dude that can ruin your career if you're not care
1:15careful with it. So I don't want to discount CD Lamb. He's obviously playing with the better quarterback. um you know, Dak Prescott, even if you're
1:23optimistic about Kyler Murray, which I am optimistic about, you know, Kyler Murray to some degree. At the same time, Dak Prescott is Dak Prescott, and this
1:31offense is going to be a really good passing game. That being said, I think there's no doubt that if you look at
1:36Justin Jefferson, he's just such an obvious rebound candidate uh to me, you know, for a variety of reasons, but one, we just know this guy's one of the best
1:44receivers in the NFL. uh 90, this is the 2024 season for him in reception perception, 94th percentile success rate verse man, 94th percentile success rate
1:54verse zone, 98th percentile success rate verse press coverage. Like this guy is an unbelievable talent. You go through the historic reception perception
2:05database, he's an elite receiver through and freaking through. There's no doubt about that. And I think one thing I've just really noticed about the Kevin
2:14Oonnell passing game, and this is something maybe like doesn't get discussed enough, but I was just recently working on Jordan Addison.
2:22>> Okay.
2:22>> And this kind of really dawned on me.
2:25Addison ran a slant route on 5.9% of his sampled routes. You know, like they're not running a lot of layups, dude.
2:32>> That is outrageous. And even if you look at Justin Jefferson's 2024 season, >> his slant route rate 10.8%.
2:39curl route rate 8.3%.
2:43>> They just run a ton of downfield patterns does this offense like >> in a way that almost, you know, you
2:49could kind of say like was maybe in disservice of a of a young quarterback who needed a lot of experience. Maybe JJ
2:56McCarthy like almost kind of needed more of those layups, but you know, that's like a whole separate conversation. But the point for fantasy
3:03>> Yeah. Is it like I think Justin Jefferson like obviously gets the quarterback upgrade but he also gets he's he's running a ton of these
3:09downfield routes like when he hits he's going to hit big. So yeah, give me like Jefferson slightly over CD Lamb as a
3:16round one fantasy pick this year.
3:18>> I can respect the injury conversation surrounding CD Lamb, but at the end of the day with George Pickkins there, there is a competition for targets that
3:26CD Lamb uh did not have to fight through I think for the seasons prior to that.
3:31Right. We're talking about a guy who saw 181 targets uh three years ago, 152 targets the next year, and then 117
3:39targets last year. I I know the injury had a big part to do with that, but at the end of the day, George Pickkins is
3:46still there. Um and they're going to spread that ball around a little bit. I I'm with you, man. Dak Prescott has an
3:53he absolutely has a chance to throw for 5,000 yards this year. Dallas's defense, I think, uh, will not be, you know,
3:59again, a shutdown unit by any stretch of the imagination.
4:02>> It'll be better than last year, but that's a low bar to clear.
4:04>> Exactly. [laughter] Exactly. Right. So, uh, but still, so even if we're projecting Lamb to have I don't know, on a Rosie projection, I
4:12think 150 is still pretty good and like he could be really, really productive with 150 targets. But man, man, Justin Jefferson is another beast entirely. And
4:24you know, I like the fact that Kyler is going to be the quarterback there. Look, I've been highly critical of the Kyler
4:30to Minnesota um connection cuz I it to from a schematic standpoint, X's and no, it doesn't seem to be a great match. Um
4:37but when we're talking about just straight fantasy football, >> Kyler Murray I think has done um a really good job sustaining wide receiver
4:46ones. you know, whether it's Larry Fitzgerald way back in the day, Nuke Hopkins for multiple seasons, Hollywood Brown for a season with Kyler Murray as
4:55well. I Kyler's just done a really good job of feeding his number one wide receivers um and and maximizing what they can do. Listen, I'm not saying all
5:05those guys that I just listed off put together just insane O seasons, but they were also I mean, Larry Fitz was 36
5:12years old. like Nuke Hopkins was on the back nine of his career and dealing with multiple injuries. Hollywood Brown is just not that guy and still yet
5:20>> Kyler Murray I thought brought from a statistical point of view um brought these guys to the table. Right. So now
5:27now he's going to pair with you're telling me he's going to pair with Justin Jefferson. Yeah. No, I I think Justin Jefferson is going to get fed a
5:35ton. Um and if those what you said what you're talking about in terms of the downfield routes like if that materializes Yeah. 100%. Um, give me
5:44Justin Jefferson um, ahead of CD Lamb.
5:47And I like CD Lamb a lot as well. Okay, in round number two, it is Drake London
5:54or Nico Collins. Where are we going?
5:59>> Dude, this one [sighs and gasps] is honestly like asking me to, you know, I don't have kids.
6:06>> Pick your favorite kid.
6:07>> You You have two kids, so maybe uh you could speak to this better. I got two dogs. Okay.
6:12>> Pick pick between my two dogs.
6:14>> Sure.
6:14>> I don't want to do that. They're I love them both for different reasons. And Drake London and Nico Collins are very
6:20different receivers.
6:22>> Yeah.
6:23>> But I think I'm going to go with Nico Collins here.
6:25>> Um and I'm not outright just similar like we said with the round one debate.
6:28I'm not outright like fading Drake London just like I'm not outright fading CD Lamb, right? But I do have some, you
6:36know, I have ecosystem questions for both of these guys and I have some relative quarterback questions for both of these guys. But I do think CJ Strad
6:44is getting unfairly slammed for his playoff run. Uh, look, his playoff run was undefensible. It was it was one of the worst playoffs we've ever seen for
6:54any quarterback in the last >> seou he had a bottom 10 success rate uh for quarterbacks in ter since 2007 in
7:03the postseason guys who played multiple postseason games. It was it was it was atrocious. His his his playoff runs were terrible. That being said, in the
7:11regular season he was a top 10 quarterback by EPA per play. He was actually sandwiched between Sam Darnold and Patrick Mahomes. like he was not I
7:19think the problem is just the bad moments were really bad and the bad moments were like in the postseason when everybody was watching and in Seattle in
7:26a Monday Night Football I believe prime time game where everybody was watching and and that wasn't a great moment for Straoud either and I do think like bad
7:33habits have started to creep into his game. So again, I I get that, but like Straoud is not so bad that we need to
7:39knock Nico Collins. And Nico Collins is so freaking good, man. Like reception perception has always been ahead of consensus on Nico Collins remains really
7:50high on Nico Collins. 96th percentile success rate verse press for Nico Collins of the 2024 season. Like this guy is an elite elite receiver. Um I
7:59actually think just straight up real life he's actually a little bit I would rank him ahead of Drake London. I'm a
8:04huge Drake London fan. So, better player actually going a little bit later in DraftKings baseball right now. Uh 22.9
8:13ADP compared to 19 for Drake London. And Drake London definitely is his skill set as a layup kind of power slot receiver
8:21is a little bit akin to like a full PPR site like DraftKings. But this early, I'm not making those kind of
8:26format-based decisions. I'm taking the better player, which I do think is Nico Collins, and I'm a huge Drake London fan, but I think it's Nico Collins with
8:33the better quarterback. Second year of the offense under Nick Kaye should be a little bit better this year. The offensive line is also maybe a little
8:40bit improved. I just think things are actually pointing in a better direction for this passing game maybe than people realize. And I think like yeah, Jaylen
8:49Null is interesting. Jaden Higgins is interesting. There's an alpha, there's a number one in Nico in in Houston. And it's Nico Collins, man. Um, I mean to
8:57your point, I I just like the fact that they finally have tried to address the offensive line. It should be a more
9:04stable offensive unit there uh in Houston. Again, I everyone's got to stay healthy obviously, but if it does, I think Houston's offensive line will not
9:14be one of the worst we've ever seen. So hopefully uh that will help. And you know what's crazy, man? At the end of
9:21the day, I don't think Nico Collins had a great season by any stretch of the imagination. And yet when you go look he
9:26still had 1100 yards, right? So uh >> he didn't stay healthy.
9:30>> I mean in 15 games in 15 games he did 1100 yards. So again if there is a way and listen this is it's it's a tall task
9:39because he has never played a full season has Nico Collins in his five years in the in in the NFL. He's just
9:46he's just never been fully healthy. Um, but if we can miraculously get a full 17game slate from Nico Collins,
9:57which I think is possible, but if we can get that, um, this is a player that I think has 1500 yard and, you know, 10 to
10:0510 to 12 touchdown uh, potential upside.
10:09So, listen, I'll chase that upside too, man. Um, I think if you want to get with a little bit more consistent type of
10:16player, I think it might be Drake London. But for baseball, if I'm trying to chase a little bit of a ceiling, I
10:21think I'm going to take Nico Collins um here as well. So, um Okay, so we talk about Nico Collins versus Drake London
10:30in the second round. In the third round, it's a Mecha Ibuka versus Lad McConi. You and I have been
10:39sympatico in the first two rounds. We got Justin Jefferson over CD Lamb. You and I both have Nico Collins over Drake
10:46London. Where are you going in round number three? Amecha Ibuka or Lad Bukakei?
10:53>> This is another one where it's really tough for me to pick because I am pretty high on both of these guys and Dynasty
11:00and even this year I really like the way these guys set up. Um, but I'm going to I'm going to go slightly slightly
11:07towards Amecha Ibuka. And these guys are razor close in ADP. 32.3 overall ADP in DraftKings best baseball is a Mecha Ibuka. Lad Maki 34.8. But
11:17I'll I'll give this to Ibuka for >> okay >> a couple of reasons and I want to I like here's here's the biggest one. It is the
11:25role change and the position change that he's about to get. Uh Zack Robinson Bucks offensive coordinator used to be with the Falcons.
11:32>> Yeah.
11:32>> He said that he Iuka is going to play the Z receiver role in this offense which is like what Cooper Cup played for
11:39the Rams. Remember, Zack Robinson was uh involved on the coaching staff for the Rams before going to the Falcons.
11:46Obviously, we just talked about Drake London. That's kind of the position he was playing in this offense where you're going to kick into the slot on a good
11:51bit, but mostly you're going to be an offball outside receiver. Cooper Cup obviously is sort of the the lynchpin player of this kind of power slot Z role
11:59for the team uh in this offensive system. This is huge news for Acha Ibuka, who last year took 68.6% 6% of
12:06his sampled snaps outside, only 30.2% in the slot. He was on the line of scrimmage for 64%.
12:14That's not what you want for Ibuka. You want him more in the slot. You want him more off ball than on ball. That is
12:20exactly what happened to Drake London in Zack Robinson's first season with the team. His rate of snaps on ball, off ball, basically flipped and his routes
12:29and percentage of snaps in the slot kicked up. Ibuka was a big slot prospect coming out of Ohio State. He was one of
12:36the best zone be he wasn't just the best zone beater in his class outside of Travis Hunter. He actually would have
12:41been better than all of the prospects taken in the 2024 NFL draft which was this very hyped up receiver class. Been
12:48a little hit or miss in the NFL, but he was the best zone beater if he had been grouped in with those prospects as well.
12:53He came in under 80% slightly 79.3% not a bad score by any means but under 80% as his own beater in his first season. I
13:02would contend that had that had more to do with the fact that he's running so many of these outside ex receiver
13:08routes. So if we're thinking about him in this new alignment, this new role, you look at the routes he's really successful on, post routes, dig routes,
13:16slant routes. I mean, shooty, you mix the curl in, but especially those like breaking inbreaker, the the break in breakers. True. Like in cuts, slants,
13:24digs, posts. These are some outrageous success rates. Really high success rates for him. That's the main diet that this Z receiver and this offense will run. I
13:35I love the role change. I love the routes that he's going to be running. He was kind of cooking on those posts and
13:41digs to begin the year before the hamstring injury as a rookie.
13:44>> Yeah.
13:45>> And I just think if we're talking about overall target like ceiling and projection here, I think it's got to go
13:53to a Mecha Ibuka in an offense that probably throws the ball more in Tampa Bay than what we see in Los Angeles. And
14:01I just think I could be like a 140 target player. I'm I'll talk about Lad Mani maybe in a second, but I I don't
14:07know. I think I has a higher target ceiling than Lad Makanki does. Some because of environment, but also some of player skill set. So, give me Ibuka a
14:18little bit more in the third round in baseball than Lad Makanki. And that hurts to say because I am very high on
14:23Lad Maki as well.
14:25>> Amecha Ibuka over his first five games came out gang busters, right? I mean, over his first five games was on pace
14:31for he had a 1500 yard pace. I mean, it was just absolutely outrageous. He was crazy. [snorts] But then over his last
14:3711 games, he was on pace for 724 yards.
14:41So, less than half of what he was on pace for over his first five games. So, um, but to your point though, Matt, I
14:48don't think enough has been made of his hamstring injury because remember, he suffered a hamstring injury and people thought he was going to be done for a
14:55couple of weeks. He didn't miss any time at all. So obviously he played through that and it it significantly hampered his explosiveness um and his durability
15:04throughout games as well. Um you know I think his snapshare ended up you know suffering quite a bit in in in games
15:12right. So >> to me achabuka I I think the player that Amecha Iabuka is is between those two very extreme you know uh scenarios.
15:23>> Yeah. That being said though, Matt, I I am so hard in on Lad McConi. I I I would take >> I mean, yes, I'm all in on this dude,
15:34man, because I tell you what, if if if I see Lad there in the third, I'm celebrating. Like, I can't believe he
15:40would be a third round pick because I would take him in the second round.
15:44That's how high I am on Lad Manki. When you talk about a dude that again um no Keenan Allen now in uh with the Chargers
15:55um Mike McDaniel in there at offensive coordinator there's just so many signs pointing to Lad truly honestly having a
16:05not just a breakout but like a monster season, right? So he to me is the clear-cut number one. I know you might
16:12disagree with me uh that uh that there is a smaller gap. I'm not going to disagree with you on that.
16:18>> No, but [laughter] but but I'm saying the talent gap between him and the rest of the unit is is significant. Um and so
16:28yeah, I think he's going to be the number one guy. Uh he's going to be the go-to guy in a Mike McDaniel offense.
16:33The offense has been updated. Uh Justin Herbert is again not going to be handcuffed by this Greg Roman offense.
16:42Um and they're going to open this bad boy up. By the way, defensively, I'll be curious. Um, they lose Jesse Mentor. I I
16:48I think that Harbaugh will still have obviously his thumb pressed very heavily onto the defensive side of the play calling and all that stuff. So, I think
16:56they'll be fine, but I also wouldn't be surprised if an aging unit in the Los Angeles Chargers plays a little bit
17:04worse for wear um next season, which could again force the hand of Justin Herbert and the OC to to open it up. I
17:13look, I think that Lad Maki truly honestly has 1500 yard potential. That's his upside to me and I'll chase that all
17:20day long.
17:21>> Okay, a couple things here. Um, one I actually thought your best point was about the defense there. Uh, because I
17:28don't think this is getting talked about enough. Um, look, like we can show the reception perception route charts for Lad Maki. He's awesome. Like we we know
17:35he's a stone cold stud. Of course, >> we know that. That's like unquestionable. I would say that the the talent gap part of it as I've tried to
17:44get you on board with QJ being a an improved and functional player, >> you're basically because I know you're good at geography, so you'll you'll
17:52you'll catch on to this.
17:53>> You you basically think that the talent gap between uh Lad Maki and everybody else is like Maine to Florida, >> and I think it's more like Maine to, you
18:04know, Maryland. still pretty significant, >> but we're not talking about all the way down to Florida.
18:10>> Right. Right. Right. Right.
18:10>> East coast geography. That's I know your favorite level of geography there as well.
18:14>> It's that's tough. That's tough for me.
18:17>> All right. Fine. It's like uh it's it's uh you know uh let's say >> I think it's San Francisco. I think I
18:24think it's San Francisco to San Diego.
18:26You think it's San Francisco to LA?
18:29>> Maybe more like even Santa Barbara. I don't know. A little farther north. A little farther north. Okay. All right.
18:34You know, but okay. that maybe will help you out a little bit.
18:37>> That's helped me considerably.
18:39>> Anyways, >> point being, >> yeah, >> either way, I I think Vlad Makkey set up to have a monster year, but I do think
18:45that defensive point by you is really good because I think that the the toughest part for the Chargers is like every time I watch receivers on film,
18:54that secondary is so good in zone coverage, just closing windows. Jesse Mentor and I don't think they're like that I think they have some good
19:00players. I don't think they're like that that that talented there. Um for the the Chargers secondary, it's mostly just how good they were from like a, you know,
19:10just a standpoint of being just closing windows and really well coached and really well timed. How much does that work with Jesse Mter?
19:17>> So, I do think they could be in higher pass first game scripts, but Mike McDaniel offenses are always kind of
19:23slow paced. They run, you know, don't run a ton of plays. They run the football a lot. And some of these comps
19:30for Lad Maki I think are interesting from a reception perception standpoint.
19:33Like he was really good in 2025 still. I mean again we know he's a baller. Almost 77% success rate versus man almost 80%
19:40verse Press. He was actually better um in his first season. So even then I want to point out I'll actually I'll actually
19:47pull up his his his first season here because I think this it helps make this point when he was even better and we see
19:52some of these comps here. The second comp I want to point out here is uh Tyler Lockett.
19:57>> Okay. Tyler Lockett here comparable to Lad Maki. And the reason I want to highlight this is because one, it was
20:02like my player comparison for Lad Maki as a player. It's also one of the things I think I wouldn't call it a concern,
20:08but like from a fantasy standpoint, if Lad Maki ends if one real life standpoint, you know, like prospect victory lapping. If Lad Maki is Tyler
20:16Lockett, cool, we'll take it. Like he'll be awesome for the Chargers. He is awesome for the Chargers. But from a fantasy standpoint, Tyler Lockett in his
20:24good, really good run with the Seahawks from 2019 to 2023, 110, 132, 107, 117, 122 targets in kind
20:34of a slow pace run first offense with Pete Carol there.
20:40>> If those are the target totals, like if I just think physically like Lockett couldn't handle a lot of volume because
20:46he was a smaller player.
20:47>> Yep.
20:47>> He could win outside. He was awesome against man press coverage as the data shows.
20:51>> Lad Maki can play outside awesome against man press coverage as the data shows. But just physically we've seen Lad like have to scrape himself off the
20:58turf.
20:59>> True.
20:59>> You know it's true >> with the injuries. Can he handle 140 targets like I think Amecha Ibuka could this year.
21:05>> That's sort of again we're I'm not out obviously I'm not out on Lad. I think Lad is great. I I totally but I just if
21:11we're breaking ties here, maybe that's one reason to say like archetypewise Ibuka can handle more targets from a fantasy standpoint in your baseball
21:19draft than than maybe Lad Maki can. And and I hope I'm wrong about that. And you're right about the 1500 yards for
21:25Lad because I think he's a baller.
21:26>> Yeah, man. He's he's great. Um and again, um I I like the the Tyler Lockett comparisons. I just think in today's NFL
21:35they could just do a players are a lot more protected nowadays.
21:39>> Sure.
21:40>> Than Tyler Lockett was u when he was running rampant with Seattle catching those moonshots from Russell Wilson. Oh by the way Justin Herbert much better
21:49quarterback than Russell Wilson.
21:51>> Um I would agree. So there you go.
21:54Anyways there you go. Uh rounds one, two, and three. It's a little bit of a wide receiver battle. We agree on Justin
21:59Jefferson over CD Lamb. We agree on Nico Collins over Drake London, but we disagree on Lad Maki versus Amecha Ibuka. What do you guys think, man? Are
22:09we crazy? Do you guys agree with us? Let us know in the comments below.
22:12Obviously, [snorts] go check out the website receptionperception.com.
22:16And for all of your best ball needs, man, go to DraftKings. All right, there you go. We got to get out of here,
22:22though. For Matt Harman, I'm James Co.
22:23We'll see you. Remember, it's never too late to chase your dreams. Peace.