You're Thinking About Amon Ra St. Brown All Wrong

Matt Harmon notes that AJ Brown, playing almost exclusively as an outside X receiver for the Philadelphia Eagles, faced press coverage on 15.9% of his routes.

Matt Harmon argues that St. Brown should be viewed as a top-five NFL receiver without caveats regarding his slot usage. Since 2022, he ranks first in catches (457), fourth in yards (5,340), and third in touchdowns among wide receivers, while also ranking seventh in yards per route run and third in first downs per route. St. Brown has evolved from a rookie-year 'slot-only' receiver into a versatile, elite engine of the Lions' offense; his slot rate has decreased every season since 2021 while his success rates against zone (83.2%), man (72.4%), and press (78.6%) coverage have reached high percentiles. His 2025 profile shows a career-high 52% of snaps outside and a reduced 42% slot rate, with a 39% snap rate on the line of scrimmage. He recorded a 94th percentile success rate versus press coverage on 12.5% of his routes, proving his ability to win on critical routes like digs and outs. Harmon projects 2026 could be his best season yet due to expected high pass volume, a questionable secondary, and consistent offensive design.

Matt Harmon highlights Chris Olave as one of the most prolific red zone target earners in the NFL, noting he shared a 30.1% red zone target share with Davante Adams.

Matt Harmon notes that Cooper Kupp was his original prospect comparison for Amon-Ra St. Brown, describing him as a 'Bud Light' version of Kupp, though he believes St. Brown has since surpassed that initial projection.

Matt Harmon identifies DJ Moore as a Bears boundary receiver who faced press coverage on 12.7% of his routes in 2025.

Matt Harmon compares Amon-Ra St. Brown to Davante Adams, citing their shared elite status as red zone target earners and touchdown scorers. Harmon also references Adams' 2019 season as a historical comparison point for the elite production level currently displayed by St. Brown.

Matt Harmon cites DeMario Douglas's 81.5% off-ball snap rate as a data point for current slot-receiver alignment trends and a historical comparison for Amon-Ra St. Brown's rookie season.

Matt Harmon notes Eric Decker's 2015 season, where he recorded an 8.4% off-ball snap rate, as a historical alignment comparison for a 'bigger slot receiver' archetype.

Matt Harmon references two of Golden Tate's seasons as historical benchmarks for the type of slot-receiver profile Amon-Ra St. Brown has outgrown.

Matt Harmon cites Hunter Renfrow's seasons as historical comparisons for the slot-receiver archetype that no longer accurately describes Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Matt Harmon identifies Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson as the consensus top two wide receivers in his current rankings.

Matt Harmon believes Jameson Williams will be better utilized this season by playing more as a Z receiver. Harmon argues Williams has been overused as an outside on-ball receiver and that the addition of Isaac Ukwu will allow for better alignment flexibility, helping Williams leverage his strengths against zone coverage and on in-breaking routes. Harmon clarifies Williams will not take over Amon-Ra St. Brown's role as the number one receiver.

Matt Harmon identifies Jarvis Landry as the archetype for the 'big slot receiver' role that Amon-Ra St. Brown occupied during his rookie season. Harmon notes that Ben Johnson's presence on the Miami coaching staff during Landry's tenure influenced the specific receiver profile Johnson favors.

Matt Harmon cites Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 2025 Reception Perception profile as a strong comparison for Amon-Ra St. Brown's current game. While Harmon acknowledges JSN's incredible season, he suggests St. Brown can be credibly ranked ahead due to his longer, proven track record of elite production.

Matt Harmon identifies Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase as the consensus top two wide receivers in his current rankings.

Matt Harmon uses Keenan Allen as a primary benchmark for Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiver profile, noting that St. Brown's Reception Perception data includes five seasons of Keenan Allen-like performance metrics. Harmon notes St. Brown has evolved to be slightly better against press coverage than Allen while maintaining similar route-running success.

Matt Harmon cites Laviska Shenault Jr.'s 80.7% off-ball snap rate as a historical alignment comparison for slot-heavy receiver usage.

Matt Harmon compares Nico Collins and Amon-Ra St. Brown, noting that while both are top-tier receivers, they play different roles; Collins is a pure outside X receiver, whereas St. Brown operates in a more dynamic move-around Z role.

Matt Harmon notes that Puka Nacua faced press coverage on 14.4% of his routes during the 2025 season, providing a comparative benchmark for press coverage sample sizes. Harmon also notes Nacua possesses slightly more straight-line go-route ability than Amon-Ra St. Brown, though he considers the two players to be very close in overall ranking.

Matt Harmon identifies Rome Odunze as a Bears boundary receiver who faced press coverage on 13.5% of his routes in 2025.

Matt Harmon uses Tyler Boyd's 8.4% off-ball snap rate as a historical alignment comparison and statistical benchmark to illustrate the profile of a traditional slot-heavy receiver, which Amon-Ra St. Brown has since outgrown.