VideoFrom Matt Harmon
Matt Harmon
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25 min
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Jul 21, 2026
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Tue, July 21, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00The public sentiment is that man, he's going to go to New England. He's going to get his mind right. Coach is going to
0:05move him around and we're going to see dominant A.J. Brown again.
0:08>> The question with these guys is always just, okay, is he going to be the exact same version it was last year or is
0:14there going to be a step back and is that is is the further step down right off the cliff?
0:20>> Look at the release.
0:21>> There's your separation. Great route.
0:22>> Stutter and go gets by clean.
0:24>> That is unbelievable.
0:25>> Maybe the greatest catch I've ever seen.
0:30>> A.J. Brown gets traded finally. It's It's the least secret rumor in the NFL. A.J. Brown getting traded to New England. They
0:38trade a What is it? Like a 20 It was like a 2030 first-round pick or something. Like they're not going to see
0:44a first-round pick until, you know, the the next president or something. I don't know. It's crazy. But so they kicked that can way down the road.
0:52But still, they still get a first-round pick for A.J. Brown. What was your thought?
0:58What was your reaction when you first heard about the trade becoming official?
1:02>> Well, I mean, we've known this was happening for a while, which is why By the way, just to let us off the hook
1:08from a recording schedule standpoint, we record every Monday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. We wrap up around 2:30 p.m. Eastern. So it
1:17was like 2 hours after.
1:19>> Oh, okay.
1:20>> It was like 2 hours, not minutes.
1:22>> You're right. You're right. You're right.
1:23>> And And again, because we've known this like was happening for like the Myles Garrett thing, that was crazy. That broke live.
1:29>> was awesome. Yeah.
1:30>> Which apparently that has actually been in in the works for a while. Not shocking considering the the the contract and and and everything there.
1:37But But anyways, point being, we've known the A.J. Brown thing was coming.
1:40Okay? What we didn't really know was the compensation. But we knew it was I mean, I'm pretty sure I said on this show in
1:44March, like at the end of March, like, are we sure there's not just a backhand I mean, a a handshake backdoor deal to
1:51send A.J. Brown to the New England Patriots on June 1st? Literally, I I you know, not not shout-out to me here like
1:57again cuz this was obvious, but I was early on this thing that this thing was coming on June 1st. It finally happens. Um and so now I think
2:05we can really unpack it, especially because uh the charting profile is up on the site for for A.J. Brown. So, I think
2:11that the compensation here actually which as you mentioned is a 2028 first-round pick. Um a and a a fifth-round pick in 2027.
2:23It was pretty clear that the the Patriots didn't want to give up a first this year. Uh and they felt like giving up a first
2:29down the line was a little bit more palatable. It's still a first-round pick though. Like they will still not be picking in the 2028
2:36first round. All right? So, they're still they're getting a first-round pick here are the Eagles and I think that it sounds like Howie Roseman really wanted
2:42to hold out for a first, not like, all right, let's take a 27 second. No, so they wanted a first, but still it's some
2:48level that you know, theoretically down of a of compensation and I think that informs what should be our expectations here going in with A.J. Brown is that I
2:58don't think that the Patriots are expecting to get prime peak A.J. Brown.
3:05And let's be clear when I say that, prime peak A.J. Brown is a top three to five receiver in the NFL.
3:16>> Right.
3:17>> I do not think that A.J. Brown will be a top three to five receiver in the NFL this year for the New England Patriots.
3:24Um that's just my my read on it based on what he was last year, which we will unpack here in the fact that he is a
3:3129-year-old receiver. He'll turn 29 later this month. A 29-year-old receiver with a long history of lower body injuries. I mean, this is a guy who he
3:42was talking about this after they won the Super Bowl in the 2020 uh four season that they he was getting his knee drained twice every
3:51week leading up to like throughout that season.
3:55>> Well, that doesn't sound fun.
3:57>> No, it does not. He came into the NFL with chronic knee issues. That was it was just a part it's a part of his
4:05journey. Now, he has obviously been able to not just play through that, but he's been able to thrive while being that player.
4:13Everything just gets a little difficult with time and with age as we all can attest to here. He he dealt with
4:20hamstring injuries last year and it will I'll talk about this when we get into the profile, but I think you you can
4:25make an argument that he was an incredibly diminished version of himself in the first half of last year prior to the Eagles week nine bye while
4:36playing through hamstring injuries. So, again, I think that's just the risk here that we should acknowledge.
4:41You know this about me, James. I say it all the time. Receiver aging and decline and age cliffs and curves is like my
4:48least favorite and yet favorite discussion to kind of have about the position because I love talking about it because I'm a dork, but I also hate
4:54talking about it because one it's kind of obviously sad. We want these guys to be able to be awesome forever. And then
5:01two, because there's no real rules here.
5:03Sometimes we see guys go right off the cliff and sometimes we see guys decline in age gracefully. And how that goes with A.J. Brown, obviously,
5:12um we shall see here in 2025. 2025.
5:15>> A huge drop-off across the board. Um when we take a look at the overall number, 69% success rate versus man, a
5:2373% success rate versus zone. I I can't my mind can't even comprehend this uh this drop-off. That's a That's a 10-point
5:33drop-off in in terms of success rate versus man coverage and an eight-point drop-off when we're talking taking a look at um his zone success rates. And
5:42again, 73% versus zone.
5:46Oh my goodness gracious. That's 16th percentile. That's not what we want. And again, if you if you guys are follow the
5:52work, you know, you we we want to see 70% versus man, 80% versus zone.
5:56Um and yeah, he's still somewhat in that ballpark for for the man score, but man, that zone number has dropped off. But
6:03again, a 10-point drop off in man coverage scores. Matt, this is a huge drop off for a player. This is again,
6:10year-over-year. This is not looking 2 years from 2 years ago or 3 years ago.
6:13No, this is from 2024 to 2025, a massive drop off for A.J. Brown.
6:19>> Yeah, and I mean again, this is the drop off is from being one of the best receivers in the NFL. A.J. Brown, like I
6:24honestly I honestly hope I'm wrong about everything that I'm saying here. I want I want to be incorrect in my in my uh
6:32fear and just like the level of concern I I would have about this. And again, I think the Patriots are acknowledging
6:39that risk by not giving up a 2027 for like a first and a third-round pick or you know, what you would typically give
6:45up for an elite top-five receiver.
6:46That's not what they gave up. That's not the compensation here. Um in addition to the fact that like the Rams, this is
6:50from Jeff McLane who covers the Eagles, the Rams were in on the A.J. Brown trade. Remember, this was reported and then they got out because of what they
6:59saw on the medical report. That's that's the reporting according to Jeff McLane.
7:01Like the Eagles were concerned with how he might age over the next 2 to 3 years.
7:05So, um it's again, I like I I want to be wrong and like we get top-five receiver in the NFL A.J. Brown again in this
7:12coming season cuz he's one of my favorite receivers of this last era.
7:15Like Reception Perception has been pointing to this guy being elite way before he was way before he was even uh producing those stats to the point that
7:22from 2020 to 2024, A.J. Brown averaged a 78.9% success rate versus man coverage and an 82.9% success rate versus press. Like those
7:32are truly truly truly elite numbers, best in the league type type deal. And once he get to Philadelphia, he actually cranked his success rate versus zone up
7:41consistently over 81% in those first few years with the Philadelphia Eagles. Like again, I think slamming the door shut on the fact that this guy was a top five
7:50receiver in the NFL.
7:51>> Top five, top three, top maybe top three.
7:54>> I would yeah, top three in in that like, you know, four year, five year stretch.
7:58Oh, top three definitely in that conversation just cuz he was so dominant physically.
8:03>> Yeah.
8:03>> You know, not not only not only from a, you know, skills perspective, right?
8:07Like not only from a technique perspective, but just physically imposing his will on games. For sure he's in that conversation of, you know,
8:17Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, top three in the league for sure. There's no question. Um, I do believe though >> concern though, James, right? Like when
8:23we're talking about the his archetype of player aging, right? It's like one example I would point to is Dez Bryant, right? When Dez Bryant um
8:31when he when he when he it was done for like >> I brought up Allen Robinson in the profile and we just And the only reason
8:37I brought up him is because honestly I'm still wearing the scars of like getting that situation super wrong. All right?
8:42Like there was a there was a decline in his profile his final years his final year in Chicago and I was like, well,
8:47maybe he was pissed off. He didn't really happy with the Bears. He didn't really give him a contract extension blah blah blah blah blah. You know,
8:52maybe he was just a little unmotivated whatever or it was just a blip, you know, Justin Fields and this was a messy
8:56situation, right? Like I kind of ignored the warning signs. He goes to the Rams and it was over. So I'm sorry to like
9:04bring up bad reception perception history cuz I got that one wrong. So I brought that up in the profile and also
9:09he was a 29 year old who declined early because he had a history of lower body injuries. But again, we're talking about
9:14like the like these physical overwhelming presences. I think Dez Bryant is an even like more informative example as a guy that Perfect example. Was Dez like the
9:22greatest technician in the entire world?
9:24No, but he was like this overwhelming physical specimen and when he he was really his 2014 season is still on the
9:30site like it's in the historic databases. It's like an elite season.
9:33And even like the season before 2016 that was another awesome season for him.
9:38His 2017 number, huge dip, and it was a and like obviously it was over. He didn't sign till till November of that season after
9:46the Cowboys let him go. And then he tore his Achilles with the Saints and it was just done done for Dez.
9:51But like Brown I don't think he's I I think Brown is a better technician than Dez. So like we'll we'll talk about
9:56that as his game ages, but I just think that's like important to bring up when we're talking about like the archetype
10:00of receiver here and and why like it can be it can go quickly and go early for some of these guys. I don't think Brown
10:07is like Dez in that way. I think he's I think he's a better like route runner and technician than that, but just want to throw that
10:14out there.
10:15>> I think what you're presenting the listeners out there and certainly in your writing here is I think very different than what the mainstream or
10:24common thought in on AJ Brown is. And shoot, we posted Reception Perception posted about AJ Brown and just go read the comments. I
10:33mean, literally everyone does not believe that AJ that was a decline from AJ Brown. There there's not a single comment out there that thinks
10:43that this can't be solved and fixed going to 2026. That's why I'm saying what you are saying right now and what
10:50you wrote in your profile I think is very much in the minority. It's a very vocal minority, don't get me wrong here.
10:55But you I think you're very much in the minority in saying that he did not phone in his 2025 season, right? That it
11:02wasn't Yes, he may have been upset with the situation, but that does not cover everything that has been covered in terms of a route-by-route situation
11:11here. I I think I'm getting that right in what you're saying here.
11:16And I and I know for sure the public sentiment is that man, he's going to go to New England, he's going to get his
11:21mind right, coach is going to move him around, and we're going to see dominant AJ Brown again because he absolutely did
11:28phone in his 2025. I think that's the popular sentiment, is it not, Matt, that everyone believes that he truly, honestly did not care about 2025, and
11:37then in 2026 he's going to get his head screwed on right, and he's going to be super engaged, and going to help the New
11:42England Patriots get back to the Super Bowl.
11:45>> Well, I think there's two separate things there. One, you mentioned the move around point, we'll come back to that and like why that I think they they
11:49can help A.J. Brown in that way. And there's no question that like I mean, did you see A.J. the other day at the at
11:54the press conference? He's like, "I know this isn't heaven, but you know, it's like he's he's clearly He's got like a
12:01>> Why Why do wide receivers do this? This is It's such a wide receiver move, man.
12:05Like, come on.
12:06>> He's got like a possibly, you know, allegedly, is this what the streets are saying AI edited version of like himself in a
12:13Patriots jersey when he was a kid, and you know, he did the interview with Maria Taylor, and he's got like a A.J. I
12:18mean, a New England Patriots fan cave rug. I mean, apparently he's always been a Patriots fan. He was super despondent when the Patriots didn't draft him. They
12:25drafted N'Keal Harry, great pick, by the way. Uh in 2019.
12:29Uh well, we're talking about Patriots, you know, draft misses. And I've By the way, I've missed on Patriots draft pick receivers, too, so Patriots fans can
12:35just feel free to not even listen to what I'm saying about wide receivers, that's fine. But anyways, point point being here,
12:40um I think to the to the idea that he phoned it in last year, I Yeah, yeah, it's so mainstream that I'm like, okay,
12:47prove like prove it. Who Has he said like, "Yeah, I was I was phoning that in." I mean, you have no idea. This
12:53is That is a total and complete guess.
12:57Maybe it's correct, okay? Like, maybe that's true.
13:01So, and and but the it's still like what reception perception is showing you what I am telling you is that the film last
13:08year didn't look like didn't look like previous seasons. So, I think that's that's the that's like the idea here is, okay, did he phone it in? I have no
13:17idea. And by the way, neither do all of you out there who are just like saying this as fact. That's what's That's
13:23what's anno like almost borderline annoying to me, that people are just like, "Well, he was fun. You have no idea. You're totally You're totally
13:29guessing that. I mean, this guy's been reading freaking books on the sideline dating back to a couple of seasons ago when he's putting up the best numbers in
13:37the league in reception reception. He was number one in success rate versus man coverage in 2024.
13:43>> On sideline reading books, yep.
13:44>> Then he just decided, oh now I I don't know. Again, maybe he was loafing it on a few routes here and
13:51there. I don't think it was all game. I just I just to me that's nuts. By the way like and I know that there are there's like
13:58the popular example is and I've cuz I've said this on social media. Obviously, the popular example to what I'm about to
14:03say is literally a another Patriots veteran acquisition, Randy Moss. People are like >> A lot of cops.
14:10A lot of cops.
14:11>> I I I I can't attest to whether Randy Moss was phoned it in with the Raiders in 2006 because I was a sophomore in
14:19high school.
14:21So, like I don't know I don't know. But, I just can't remember many examples where we said like, oh, that guy was
14:28phoning it in and then like next season he comes back and he's his best the best version of himself. I usually think the truth is
14:34like somewhere in the middle, right? And and and >> Randy Moss might be the only example to be honest with you.
14:40>> I don't know. Other people have said other examples. I'm like, I don't remember seeing that guy like loafing it or like I said, the Allen Robinson
14:46thing. That was a popular thought at the time. Well, he was he was just like not happy with the Bears his last year. They
14:50didn't want to give him a contract extension. Well, we got to the Rams and it was done. So, I don't know. Anyways,
14:54but the other thing I was just was just say to to to that too, there is at least one thing if you're
15:00looking for like silver lining or any me as an A.J. Brown fan, perhaps cope when I look at the profile, one thing that is
15:07at least worth noting. And again, I think this kind of almost pushes back to the idea that you know, he was just
15:14totally phoning it in throughout the course of the season, you can at least do some like and and I don't love to do this all the
15:23time and but I'm actually going to do it twice in this show, so you know, what do I know what do I know here?
15:28Um I if you split up the success rates um in his like first half second half of the season because like I said, I think
15:38you could make an argument that he came in um as a guy that was like he was obviously not healthy in the first part of the
15:46season. He had hamstring injuries in the off-season and then he took he sat out a game right before the bye.
15:51Um in in week nine and and then he so again, he was dealing with this hamstring injury. So weeks one to seven,
15:57the game sample, four game sample there.
16:0069.3% success rate versus zone, 60.7% success rate versus man, and 50% success rate versus press. Those are bottom of
16:10the league disastrous type of numbers.
16:12In the four game sample after the bye, 77% success rate versus man, 76% success rate versus zone, and 75% success rate
16:22versus press. Those are obviously better results, but they even still represent some level of decline from obviously the peak of AJ Brown. So like that my
16:33contention here is just that the decline has started.
16:37For a 29-year-old wide receiver who's dealt with a ton of lower body injuries, like I don't think that's a hot take. I
16:42think I think that's just like this is what happens at this point. The question to me again, like I said, the decline
16:48has started, but if he can be that guy in the back half of the season, shoot, even over the course of the season, like
16:53these numbers if he can be this guy again next year, that's still like a useful player for the Patriots. And if he's a guy in the
17:00back half of the season, that's actually a really really good player for the New England Patriots this year. The question with these guys is always just, okay, is
17:06he going to be the exact same version he was last year? Or is there going to be a step back and is that is is the further
17:12step down right off the cliff? Or is it a an an aging gracefully situation? And I think that's where we can unpack like
17:21role and usage and things like that.
17:23>> Okay. Um I want to say one thing in regards to him phone maybe potentially phoning it in or whatever it might be,
17:29but the bottom line is this.
17:30I've seen a lot of athletes and regardless there this is this is so old school, but like there is a scene in um a movie.
17:39What is it? Joy Luck Club. Where one of the main characters she's a high level chess player.
17:43>> Never seen it as you might imagine, but >> Yeah, it's so old. First of all, it's so old.
17:47>> I haven't seen any movies either, so.
17:49>> [laughter] >> If it's not Star Wars, Matt's not in. Um but no, okay. So, Joy Luck Club the the one of the main characters is a chess
17:56player as a kid. She's a super duper high level like crazy high level.
18:00And but her mom pressures her to keep playing. And at some point she just gets sick of it. And you know what she says?
18:05You know what, man? I don't want to play. And mom's like, all right, cool.
18:07Well, you're done. And so, but then she tries to come back to it later and finds out she's just not that same player
18:14anymore.
18:15The problem is I think when you I I just think and I've seen this I know that's a movie, but I've just seen this so often
18:20in sports that when guys let go of the rope even for a moment it is ridiculously hard to reclaim that spot. Right? And
18:31so, even if AJ Brown did phone it in right? Like my contention would be for most athletes not named Randy Moss,
18:39it is incredibly difficult to then go and and turn it back on to turn that switch back on, to be a
18:48true psychopath because let's be real.
18:51To be at the top of the of the game, to be at the top of the league, in a league full of just crazy athletes, in a league
18:57full of of of total psychopaths, you yourself have to be a psychopath. I truly honestly believe that. And humans, I'm telling you, are just not wired to
19:08be that way. And so, when you let go when you turn that switch off, it is awfully difficult to turn that switch
19:15back on. And so, I think regardless whether you're right or whether the general populace is right, it's going to be really hard for A.J. Brown to get
19:24back to the levels that we saw from 2 years ago. I just think it's it's just so hard to do it.
19:30Okay, now that being said, I feel like we've done a lot of fear mongering here on this episode regards to A.J. I
19:38the thing is you talk about the silver lining there, you know, splitting up. I see another silver lining and and I know
19:44you see it too in New England in that I think the role for him will be different. Actually, as a matter of
19:51fact, quite different than what we have seen the last couple of years there in Philadelphia. I'm encouraged by the fact that they already signed Romeo Doubs.
20:00They've got Keishawn Booty. I don't know if he ends up being there, but whatever.
20:03If he is there, but they definitely have Mack Hollins there as well. And I bring up these three players because these are
20:08three guys who can give you X receiver reps. And this will allow A.J. Brown to move around the formation. If he doesn't
20:17play 30% in the slot in 2026, I honestly would be surprised.
20:24>> Yeah, I I like that call by you and I agree with this and like this is something it will now that we're done
20:30fear mongering here, like if we get reports or even like preseason usage and this is why this is an evolving conversation and why like I simply think
20:39it's important to say these things because it's like again, the risk acknowledge the risks, but I'm not saying like this is what I've learned
20:45over the course of doing this is that you can't say, well, it'll be totally fine or it'll be you know, he'll be he's
20:52toast. Like I just there's no that that's just like not how this position works because this is what history has taught us. I mean, you can look at like
20:58Stefon Diggs who this team had in the building last year.
21:02>> Sure. I I pointed out after the 2023 season for Diggs in Buffalo that he had declined specifically as a perimeter
21:11receiver and a downfield option. He would need a role change in order to age gracefully because he's an elite technician. That is what happened. He
21:20was a slot receiver Z based guy in Houston and then he was a kind of a slot Z based guy, shorter average depth of
21:27target, shorter route tree with the Patriots last year.
21:31>> Yep.
21:31>> I don't know that A.J. Brown can totally go that direction. Like I don't think he's he's exactly like a Stefon Diggs
21:37type. However, um very similar situation here where the routes that A.J. Brown declined the most on, nine, post, corner. I mean, those
21:46routes are a steep drop-off from the player that he was previously. And because he was still the X receiver for the Philadelphia Eagles last year. And
21:56by the way, like just one quick point, I know and I'm I'm not like some Kevin Patullo defender here, like the Kevin Patullo
22:03apologist but >> Please don't.
22:05>> cuz he was cuz it wasn't good last year.
22:07But I think there was like an insistence that oh, like he had really changed A.J.
22:10Brown's role and route No, like he was generally in the same ballpark route tree wise of what we'd seen the last few
22:17years, which was a very straight line vertical route tree. Lot of nines, curls, um some slants and stuff like that, but
22:25the routes that A.J. Brown still really good on, like his out route success rate is 84%. That's an incredible number. Dig
22:30route success rate 77 77.3%. Really good number. Slant route success rate just under 83%. Awesome number. Flat route success rate, James Coe's favorite
22:39route, 90% success rate.
22:41Like these breaking routes he's still really good on and you can access those routes better if you lean into like a different
22:50role for him as kind of like a movement Z based option. An interesting point, um if you look back at the last time that
22:58A.J. Brown and Mike Vrabel were together, the 2021's uh season with the Tennessee Titans. And look, maybe I'm reaching here, okay, because
23:07but it's at the at least an interesting note.
23:10Remember they traded Julio Jones that year to the Tennessee Titans, and they basically just dropped him right in the X receiver spot and moved A.J. Brown,
23:17who had consistently been a an X receiver for this Tennessee Titans team, they moved him to the Z receiver position. So, last time we saw Mike
23:24Vrabel and A.J. Brown together, he took a career-high 62% of his sampled snaps off the line of scrimmage, a career-high 4.2% in the backfield, with
23:3469% of his snaps outside. That is the second lowest rate of his career. And I agree with you, like I know Kayshon Boutte's been like on the
23:44trade block and all that, and he's he's not been in camp. He's he's a little unhappy, I guess. Leave him in the
23:50sacrificial X receiver role. Romeo Doubs has been a really good X receiver for the Green Bay Packers the last few years. Like, why does he have to become
23:59the F Steph Diggs replacement? Like, let it cuz Doubs is good in that role.
24:05We have proof of concept of that. And I He's in He's a second-contract player.
24:09He's in the theoretical prime of his career.
24:12I do kind of hope that Kyle Williams gets a role change, but he was like the most sacrificial X receiver in the world
24:17last season. Probably one of the most sacrificial profiles I've ever charted as we discussed on the show a few weeks ago. Have him do that stuff while you're
24:25moving A.J. Brown around on these breaking routes. Like, I think if his route tree looks really different next year, you get a better, probably still
24:32diminished, but a better version of A.J.
24:34Brown than, you know, the fall off the cliff version, which is I I would be just be concerned if he's the X receiver running a bunch of nine
24:42routes, you're not going to get the best version out of him at 29 years old. So, my question, I guess, is just like do
24:49the Patriots share that vision? Can Josh McDaniels pull this off?
24:53>> Right.
24:54>> Um I do kind of wish that the last thing we saw of the Patriots offense wasn't, you know, them getting shellacked. That
25:00makes me you know, the whole deal. So, again, I think that's the way that that they can get the best out of Brown
25:07and and and be able to kind of again do the graceful aging thing, the Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen version, not the
25:14Allen Robinson, Dez Bryant version of of receiver [snorts] decline.
