VideoFrom Matt Harmon
Ladd McConkey Is Going To Have A Bounce Back Season | Reception Perception The Show
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
18 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 18, 2026
Published
Thu, June 18, 2026
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Ladd McConkey
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Player insights
Ladd McConkey
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Matt Harmon identifies McConkey as the "most obvious bounce back candidate at wide receiver in the entire class." McConkey fell from 1,100 yards in his rookie season to 789 yards in 2024, but Harmon attributes this decline to offensive crowding (Keenan Allen's return) and offensive line collapse (Rashawn Slater lost before season, Joe Alt in-and-out) rather than a drop in play. McConkey's charting profile shows improvement in several areas: 85% success rate on digs, 86% on curls, 76% on outs (nearly 40% of routes in intermediate area); 66.7% success on nines, 77% on posts despite limited downfield opportunities. Harmon projects McConkey will exceed 1,100 yards in 2025 and fit "pretty perfectly" with new offense under Mike McDaniel. McConkey's contested catch rate decline in 2024 (from 76.9% to 60%) is viewed as a correctable blip rather than a skill regression; he had a 0% drop rate in his prospect profile and dropped only 1.6% of targets in his rookie season, suggesting the 7.9% drop rate in 2025 was an anomaly driven by variables outside his control. McConkey's 90th percentile success rate versus press coverage as a rookie ranks 8th all-time, ahead of only Odell Beckham Jr., Stevie Johnson, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and Ja'Marr Chase. McConkey shares similar variables to Jaxon Smith-Njigba's breakout: both played slot in their first two seasons, both are high-end press/man coverage beaters, and both watched a big-time target getter leave in the offseason (Keenan Allen unsigned for Chargers). McConkey won't hoard targets like JSN due to Quentin Johnston being a credible role player, but the new play caller (Mike McDaniel) will emphasize heavy personnel and condensed sets—a departure from the previous spread-heavy approach—which should allow McConkey to smoke defenders in intermediate/downfield routes and make plays in space, his skillset strength.
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Episode Transcript
0:00But here's your tagline for the Ladd McConkey situation. Most obvious bounce back candidate at wide receiver in the entire class.
0:06>> If he doesn't get to 1,100 yards, man, I would be absolutely stunned.
0:11>> Look at the release.
0:12>> There's your separation.
0:13>> Great route.
0:14>> Stutter and go gets by clean.
0:15>> That is unbelievable.
0:17>> May be the greatest catch I've ever seen.
0:21>> Uh Ladd McConkey is another player that I thought I had really high hopes for in 2025, and he just didn't quite get
0:28there, man. Uh this is a player that had 1,100 yards his rookie season, 11:49, and falls down to sub 800, 789 receiving
0:38last year for Ladd McConkey. Um 73% catch rate in 2024, 62% catch rate in 2025.
0:49And yet Reception Perception is literally built, I think, in my opinion, for a player like Ladd McConkey. You go to the
0:57website, it's in big bold letters.
0:59Telling you who is good before they're good. That is something that I told Matt before we even had this website. I'm
1:06like, this is what Reception Perception does. Literally, this is what it tells you who is good before they're good.
1:11This is the power of Reception Perception. And I feel like RP was literally made for a player like Ladd because I think Ladd I'm with you, and your
1:20profile makes it very clear, but I'm with you. I think Ladd McConkey comes back in a huge way, and I think he's
1:25going to have a great season here in 2026.
1:29>> Oh, yeah. I mean, just I obviously I'm not good at coming up with taglines, you know, you you were better
1:36at the telling you who's good before they're good, you know, that was that was good good stuff by you. Not not
1:40nothing by me there. But here's your tagline for the Ladd McConkey situation.
1:45Most obvious bounce back candidate at wide receiver in the entire class.
1:49Period. End of story. Like there's your If we're doing a TikTok vid, you'd be like, Ladd McConkey is the most obvious
1:56bounce back candidate in the NFL.
1:58>> [laughter] >> Roll the clickbait, baby.
2:01>> Clip it, baby. Clip it.
2:03>> Um, but no, I think that when you look at uh Ladd last year, I mean, this 365 days ago what I said about Ladd McConkey was I
2:12think you can make a strong case that uh he was the best rookie in the 2024 season. The best rookie wide
2:18receiver on film. He did lead all rookie receivers in yards. Unfortunately, as you mentioned, it was 783.
2:26And he's not one of these guys like Rome Odunze or even Brian Thomas or Marvin Harrison that missed a bunch of time or
2:32or played through Now, he maybe he had some stuff here and there, but there wasn't this like big injury or anything.
2:37I think he was more a victim because the charting profile shows that that there wasn't some like you know, brutal uh you know
2:49drop in his play or anything like that.
2:51And as a matter of fact, there's several areas we're going to talk about where he got better. Um, but it wasn't as if he
2:57he he even had like a change of opportunity from a playing time standpoint. I think he was mostly just a victim of playing in a more crowded
3:03offense with Keenan Allen back in the mix, you know, soaking up layup targets.
3:07And then the unit itself just collapsed under the weight of cluster injuries at the tackle position.
3:15>> Yeah. Right.
3:16>> And a bad interior offensive line that the Chargers themselves wanted to go in with that interior of the offensive line
3:24last year. Bad idea at the time, it didn't work out. Um, but so yeah, obviously the the disaster was on the
3:30interior. Rashawn Slater lost before the season began. Joe Alt, you know, in and out of the the the lineup. Um, just unfortunate. But I
3:39think what we see from McConkey in isolation is that still a really good player that I think just fits this new
3:45offense with Mike McDaniel pretty perfectly.
3:48>> Yeah, he absolutely killed it in the intermediate area, right? 85% success rate on the dig, 86% on the curl, 76% on
3:57the out. Nearly 40% of his routes last year were on these three routes. He's crushing you in the intermediate, and he's also obviously extraordinarily good
4:09in the short area as well.
4:11I got to be honest with you, I was encouraged and really happy to see that I get it lit somewhat limited
4:18opportunities. Um what is it? Less than 12% of his routes came on the nine and post, but 66.7% success rate on the nine, 77% success
4:30rate on the post. Those are extremely strong numbers. It's it's a smaller sample than you would like to see, but overall, even when he does get down
4:38field, he's winning there, too.
4:40>> Oh, yeah. This is why I've always said he's, you know, despite the fact he's kind of a small white, he's not a guy that is a bunny hop slot
4:49receiver by any means. Like this is a downfield vertical man coverage beater.
4:54My player comparison for him as a prospect was Tyler Lockett.
4:58Ironically enough, if you look at the new player comparison tool on our site, Reception Perception, his 2025 season draws two matches to
5:07previous Tyler Lockett seasons.
5:09And it actually has one Tyler Lockett match in his rookie season charting profile as well. So, look, Lockett, when he was at his best,
5:17was an elite separator who could win at all depths and was electric downfield.
5:21And I know he got a lot of jokes about, oh, he falls down on first contact a lot when he was older, but remember, this
5:27guy was like a star kick returner. Like he was awesome with the ball in his hands. That's another thing that McConkey is really,
5:32really good at. So, these guys are like top-level performers against man coverage, both of them at their peaks.
5:37McConkey, same with Lockett, but you know, Tyler Lockett also, like yeah, I said, explosive downfield player. You were outlining this explosive downfield
5:45route running for Ladd McConkey. We didn't get to see a lot of that last year. His slant route rate jumped from
5:5116.9% as a rookie to over 28% last year.
5:55>> And a lot of the other routes, you mentioned the dig route which he's extremely good at, the outbreakers, like these big outbreaking routes, those
6:03fell. Dig route fell from 22% to 18%.
6:06And you know, I don't love this solution by offensive coordinators. It's not my favorite. For me, it's more like, "Hey, figure out your protection plans a
6:15little bit as opposed to like, "Oh god, we can't pass protect. Let's just go to quick game, quick game, quick game,
6:19quick game." And that is a lot of what they did with Lad McConkey. And for a moment there, it kind of worked, I
6:24think, before teams started kind of squatting on their concepts as the year went on and they're just which is often the case with Greg Roman. Like when
6:31things are going really well with a Greg Roman offense, like offensive line is healthy and things like that, he can he does actually have
6:38some interesting stuff in the passing game, but he just never has figured out a way to counterpunch. And that's obviously why Greg Roman is the run game
6:46czar now in New York with the Giants and not the current offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers. That is going to be Mike McDaniel this year. And
6:53I do think that's something where McConkey last year, the the Chargers played out of three plus receiver sets at the fifth
7:01highest rate in the NFL. I think given what we've seen out of their off-season moves, that is going to dramatically change. You know, they added Charlie
7:08Kolar, blocking tight end in free agency, literally giving soliloquies at the microphone at OTAs about how much he loves blocking.
7:15>> [laughter] >> How much he just brings him joy in life.
7:18They added a fullback, Alec Ingold. And then after the draft, they double back and get David Njoku. Like I think they're clearly going to play out of a
7:24lot of 12 and 21 personnel, maybe some 13 stuff too. And Andre Gaston in the mix as well. And I just think like maybe that
7:31when they get to 13 personnel as we talked about with with Trey Harris like on a previous episode, he was actually
7:38the isolated receiver in 13 personnel looks cuz they liked his run blocking so much. I think that's totally possible again this year. I also
7:45um I might end up becoming like a Quentin Johnston defender this year based on our last conversation about QJ and where I think we might hold the
7:54rookie year against him a little bit too much. I think he's actually kind of become a useful player. So maybe he gets
7:59some of those looks, but when they go to like 12 and 21 and like there are situations where there's two receivers
8:05on the field, not just necessarily one receiver on the field.
8:07>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
8:08>> I I think that there I think that Ladd's going to just absolutely cook in that intermediate area that you mentioned
8:12there off of play action. Herbert's really good at throwing the football there and like the separation from Ladd is just fantastic. He cleared the 87th
8:21percentile in success rate versus man, zone, and press coverage.
8:25He did dip back a little bit in press coverage success rate, but like oh boohoo, he fell from literally a 98th
8:32percentile success rate as a rookie to an 89th percentile result where he and he actually saw more press and in the
8:41meantime, he he improved from year one to year two in success rate versus man and zone. Like this is without question
8:51I think he's already established as one of the better route runners and separators in the NFL right now is Ladd McConkey.
8:57>> Yeah, I'm I'm really excited about it.
8:59I'm really hoping that they don't feel the need to bring back a Keenan Allen.
9:05I know their GM was talking about that just a little bit. I don't know. I I don't know if that's just lip service.
9:09I'm hoping that is.
9:11Um I really want to see them develop some of the young guys cuz their young guys I think could take off this year.
9:17And in particular, I think Ladd McConkey is a budding superstar >> Mhm.
9:21>> um for the Chargers here. So, yeah, this is a player that you know, if he doesn't get to 1,100 yards, man, I would be absolutely
9:29stunned. Um but I think he's got upside for more, too. Um again, I look at that 62% catch rate. Can you talk about this
9:38a little bit, too? Can Can you talk about him in contested because I felt like he took a big step back in
9:43contested last year, but again, as we know, that's not really that sticky of a stat, right? Especially I think for and I we pick and choose who
9:53it's sticky for and who it's not sticky for, but I mean, that's the film, right?
9:57Like when I watch Ladd McConkey, I don't see a guy who has trouble at the catch point. So, yeah, I think that that's not
10:02a sticky stat for him. I think that if um we're talking about Ladd in contested, I think he could get back to
10:08being a really, really good contested catch guy.
10:11>> Oh, I'm not picking and choosing who I think I don't think it's sticky for anybody. I I I don't think it's sticky
10:16for anybody. Yeah, there are guys that like hang around at the top of the league that we think of as these great
10:21ball winners, but even then, some like T Higgins, for example, like he'll have a season where he's like not that good as
10:26a contested catch receiver. George Pickens, like literally the ball winner of all ball winners, hit a couple seasons in Pittsburgh where he was not
10:32good as a contested catch receiver. Even Justin freaking Jefferson, year two in the NFL, I believe it was year two, had
10:39like a high drop rate and a low contested catch rate. Like anybody can have a blip like that. It's just it's a
10:44correctable issue. Can you correct it?
10:46That's the question.
10:48Um and for Ladd McConkey, yeah, this was a little bit of a step back uh in his rookie season sample, he dropped just
10:551.6% of his targets and he saw a contested target rate 20% and a contested catch rate of 76.9%.
11:03This past year, dropped 7.9% of his sample targets. His contested target rate actually fell off a cliff. He didn't really get a lot of contested
11:10targets and he turned in a 60% contested catch rate. So, like yeah, I I think we have pretty good proof of
11:15concept that Ladd McConkey didn't have bad hands. He had a 0% drop rate in his prospect profile. Uh so, I I I think
11:22we'll I I say yeah, it's crazy like with this 2024 class, like all these guys had like some combination of bad even the like Marvin Harrison Jr.
11:32had some just like hilariously bad drops if we're you know having dark some dark humor here.
11:38Um, it's just like all these guys had just weird blips at the catch point in addition to for some a lot of them uh
11:43some injuries as well. Not Ladd McConkey, not really like an injury excuse thing, but a lot of I I just think variables outside of his control
11:49in addition to like yeah, a couple of plays he he left on the field for sure.
11:52>> Yeah, the he was a little bit a lot more inefficient in 2025 than he was in 2024.
11:58And you know, it's just it was just different because he was the he was the true number two so long as Keenan Allen
12:04was on the field. That there's a little bit of a difference there, too. So, I'm I'm expecting them to lean on him
12:10and I'm expecting him to kind of sort of step up and really take control of this wide receiver room. I'm so excited about
12:16Ladd McConkey. By the way, again, it's like I get the whole white guy in the slot thing, you know what I'm saying?
12:21But like the guy ran a 439. Okay, like let's let's relax with the white [laughter] guy in the slot thing.
12:27This guy can move. He's got some speed now. He's got some long speed, too.
12:31We've been talking about it hinting at it here, but 76.5% success rate versus man, 84% versus zone. Okay, you're expecting that from a quick twitch guy
12:40out of the slot. That's fine, but 79.5% as Matt talked about against press. I just you can't hammer that number enough,
12:49Matt. You really can't because it's just this this preconceived notion of a white guy in the slot. This guy's killing you
12:56at the line, man. Like he is absolutely killing DBs. 79.5% success rate versus press, 90th percentile. That is so impressive given
13:07his skill set in all the other areas of the field, too.
13:11>> Yeah, in his rookie season he averaged 2.85 yards per route run from the outside and 2.24 from the slot. So, like
13:17yeah, he definitely showed an ability to win outside and I know again like for some of these reps are probably press
13:22coverage from the slot different than like press coverage, you know, true boundary X receiver stuff from you know, freaking 2015 or whatever.
13:28>> Sure.
13:28>> But still, his success rate versus press as a rookie, which I mentioned was 90th percentile, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8th best all
13:37time. These are the guys that are ahead of him. Odell Beckham Jr., Stevie Johnson, shout out Stevie Johnson, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Justin
13:45Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Ladd McConkey, and we get to it a second Odell Beckham Jr. season. My God, bring it back to the the beginning of the
13:52podcast like, holy crap, Odell Beckham.
13:55>> Could have been so much more.
13:56>> Um but anyways, yeah. So, obviously, oh my God, you go down and there's another Odell Beckham season right there right afterwards and
14:03>> Amazing. [laughter] >> it's just so we come back to OBJ here, but yeah, no, man. I I think Ladd absolutely can cook from the outside. I
14:09think that's the the key here is that Look, I'm not I I do not think Let me be Let me be Let me be clear. I
14:17do not think that Ladd McConkey's necessarily going to go like absolutely nutso like Jaxon Smith-Njigba did last year.
14:26But if you think about it, some of the variables for >> not not saying it.
14:31>> I'm not not saying it. What I'm saying is >> [laughter] >> that some of the variables for Ladd McConkey do look pretty similar to Jaxon
14:41Smith-Njigba and that these are guys that played a lot from the slot in their first two seasons. Then uh I like I said, I don't think that Ladd
14:49McConkey's going to be able to hoard targets as JSN did because I do think that like Quentin Johnston's a credible role player and they got some
14:55interesting other pass catchers and blah blah blah blah blah.
14:57But but but both guys were interior players that Reception Perception showed could do a lot more from the boundary than than they than they did. Like they
15:06were both high high-end man coverage beaters, press coverage beaters, whatever. Uh then then kind of the conventional wisdom was and both of them
15:14watched a big-time target getter leave in the offseason as of right now. Uh Keenan Allen is unsigned. JSN obviously watched DK Metcalf be traded last off
15:23season. And they got a play caller who's going to emphasize a lot more like heavy personnel stuff and condensed sets after
15:30the previous play caller was very over indexing on like spread concepts and stuff like that. So, like I do think that again, the skillset there is
15:38similar for McConkey to just like smoke defenders in the intermediate downfield level out of these heavy personnel packages, make plays in space, which is
15:46what Mike McDaniel really wants. Like to me just like Ladd McConkey looks like a Mike McDaniel receiver from a skillset standpoint. I mean, this is what's going
15:54to be crazy, right? Like again, just drawing those comparisons to Seattle, too. I mean, you think about Clint Kubiak, offensive minded coach, young
16:01guy taking over that role uh there in Seattle. They use a lot of like, you know, under center stuff. Um they're
16:09going to run a lot of zone. Wait a second now. Mike McDaniel, he's coming in, young guy. They're going to run a
16:14lot of zone. They're going to be a lot under center. There's going to be some play action type of stuff here. Um and
16:20then on top of that, another layer to that is the fact that I think about like Tyreek Hill. And obviously, he's a one
16:26of one when we're talking about speed.
16:28But Ladd McConkey in that like 50/50 inside/outside role, just like Tyreek in his prime was in Miami, was 50/50 inside/outside.
16:38>> Mhm.
16:39>> I don't know, man. I'm getting a little excited. I'm getting a little excited.
16:42>> I'm excited. But by the way, you know, I know disrespect to the oligarchs.
16:47No disrespect to, you know, the three people >> still fighting the two of wars on the internet.
16:52>> Talking about Justin Herbert here for this Chargers team, too, you know.
16:56I know. I know. Light light it up in the Light it up in the comments. Let us know that he's never won a playoff game and
17:01ba ba ba ba ba. But this guy can absolutely rip the football. And I think just this is going to be some real real
17:08favorable looks here for everybody. I'm very excited about the Chargers offense this year. We'll see about the defense.
17:13I think the defense probably has taken a step back without Jesse Minter there from like a real life football standpoint, but um yeah, dude, like
17:19Mecole Hardman has I come to come back to the beginning tagline here, the Tik Tok clickbait, most obvious bounce-back candidate at wide receiver in the NFL
17:29this season to me.
