0:00The Jacksonville Jaguars, I think will also be contenders this year and a lot of that too will be based on the fact
0:08that what is BTJ going to do here in year number three?
0:12>> Look at the release.
0:13>> There's your separation.
0:14>> Great route.
0:15>> Stutter and go gets by clean.
0:16>> That is unbelievable.
0:17>> May be the greatest catch I've ever seen.
0:23>> Huge, massive step back in nearly every route run statistically. Uh whether you're talking about reception perception metrics, whether you're talking about counting stats, everything
0:35in regards to BTJ's 2025 was a little bit of a disaster, man. Um and I'm curious to get your thoughts on what you
0:43think we might see from BTJ in 2026.
0:47>> I think you're being kind by saying a little bit of a disaster. I think this was one of the most mystifying
0:52developments in wide receiver world last season is the way I opened up the profile here. Brian Thomas Jr. had 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns in his rookie
1:03season, charted out with a really strong overall profile in reception perception.
1:08Um and man, anybody like could see last year that he was obviously struggling mightily with drops.
1:16Um he had 707 yards in 14 games last year um in the regular season. It just it was a crazy drop and that was with
1:28uh Liam Cohen coming in who everybody was excited about. I he was like my favorite play designer and offensive coordinator in the 2024 season.
1:37Uh so and but and I think Liam Cohen was a massive hit, a massive hit for the Jacksonville Jaguars and then still we
1:45get this fall off uh from Brian Thomas Jr. So there's a lot to get into here with BTJ and I let me let me start off by saying that
1:55I think from a um like a fantasy perspective, I think the bigger concern for BTJ is almost exclusively about his role
2:07with the team and role in the offense.
2:10>> [sighs and gasps] >> I do kind of think you can almost throw out a lot of what we saw on film last year from BTJ, which was
2:18not good. Like there I'm It wasn't It was not good, uh but it was also kind of just not atrocious.
2:25>> Just we'll unpack it here obviously a little bit, but >> you know, I do think we can all we can
2:29say that he was really banged up throughout the course of last season. As I mentioned at the top of all of these,
2:34you know, guys in their second seasons, Brian Thomas Jr. dealt with a ton of injuries last year. You know, he came in
2:40with like a wrist injury that they talked about. He was clearly dealing with a shoulder injury throughout the course of the year. He had an ankle
2:47injury at one point uh of the season. So, like I do think that's obviously that's part of it. Like he was banged up most He was most likely
2:54just banged up throughout the course of his second season, and that probably impacted a lot of um a lot of the drop that we're going to
3:02discuss here from a reception perception standpoint. The key will be uncovering can he get back to 2024 form? Can he actually get better from 2024 form? Cuz
3:12that profile wasn't perfect. And then accordingly, like what will his role look like within the context of the current receiver room?
3:19>> Yeah, you talk about some of the routes individually here, and part of the reason why I was so excited about BTJ
3:26and Liam Coen's offense was that in 2024, he ran a great dig route, man. 78% success rate on dig routes in 2024. I
3:35thought that was going to mesh perfectly and fit perfectly into what Liam Coen um would design as a play designer here.
3:43And yet it was a massive drop-off in 2025. Again, 78% success rate on dig routes in 2024, fell 15 points to 63%
3:55in 2025.
3:57I just And And by the way, this is not a small sample size here. That was his most run route in 2024 at nearly 19%. So, we had
4:07a lot of evidence, Matt, that this guy can go out there and just dominate the intermediate and deep parts of the
4:14field. And in particular, that in-breaking route, I thought was going to be a huge, massive hit in this offense, and it just wasn't.
4:22>> So did I. I I thought it would be as well, based on what we saw in that rookie year profile.
4:27>> [gasps] >> I would say that if you break down Brian Thomas Jr.'s struggles, like there are the loud ways in which he struggled,
4:32like the that he that is very obvious to everybody, and then there are the quieter ways in which he struggled. Yes,
4:37correct. The loud way is obviously the drops. And And that's backed up in his charting profile. 11.7% of his sample targets he dropped. He caught just 53%
4:47of his contested catch attempts on a 25% target contested target rate. As a rookie, he dropped just 1.4% of his sample targets with a 75% contested
4:56catch rate. You go back to his prospect profile, 2.9% drop rate, 73% contested catch rate with a lower contested target rate in both the rookie and prospect
5:07profiles. So, was this a fluke? Right? Like I think we can we can say that. Like sometimes this happens when it comes to drops and
5:15Like you just get you get it it gets in your head, it becomes a part of it, you start thinking about it, and it
5:20>> just starts to like be a waterfall effect. I think that was certainly the case here with Not just BTJ, you can say it for a
5:26couple of these guys that played in their second seasons last year, but he was definitely I I would say like from a drops
5:33perspective, probably the worst offender. It was just all throughout the course of the season. It was It was just It was littered over the course of his
5:40his second season film. So, that was like the loud way in which he struggled. The quieter ways, I would say that he struggled in
5:48something that you were alluding to there. There were actually ways that kind of what I would say and I wrote in
5:54his rookie year profile were like small concerns or areas where he needed to get better. And that was beating zone coverage and working over the middle of
6:02the field because if you go back and look at his second year profile or first year excuse me rookie year profile, 77%
6:09success rate versus zone coverage is a 38th percentile mark. And his success rate on slant routes was a 70 4% success
6:16rate which is below the NFL average.
6:20Well, sure enough like not only did those things not get better, they were massive massive I think season ruining issues for BTJ last year. His success
6:30rate versus zone coverage is 69.8%.
6:34>> Yikes.
6:35>> Yeah, you listen. You go through the RP database, you don't find a you're not going to find a lot of dudes that are
6:41like consistent established quality starters with that success that low success rate like sub 70% >> Yikes.
6:49>> unless they got significantly better throughout the court. Like there are guys that were lower and then got better and that's our hope here with BTJ is
6:55that in 2026 and beyond he's better.
6:57Even 77% would be a huge win getting back to that. But that was a huge issue.
7:01Not to mention you you talked about the dig routes.
7:04Just all of these in-breaking routes were a big problem for him. You see it on the route tree. Um 71.4% success rate
7:11on slants and then it continued to like the dig route which was a 63% success rate really bad. Um that to me was a the
7:18biggest problem for him and why almost like as the year went on, they didn't obviously never benched Brian Thomas Jr. or anything, but like they
7:26essentially just kind of cut his role back more and more. Then they had to go once Travis Hunter got hurt when he was just kind of getting
7:34ramped up as that primary in-breaking route um player.
7:39>> Yeah.
7:39>> He he gets hurt. They have to go out and trade for Jacoby Myers, who immediately like settles down the entire offense,
7:45basically beating zone coverage and running routes over the middle of the field, which he's made a long career for himself in the
7:50NFL doing exactly that.
7:51>> Yeah. And again, that addition of Jacoby Myers I thought helped [clears throat] elevate the offense a lot. And we're talking about Jacoby Myers
7:58for [laughter] goodness sake, which I think is so interesting.
8:02Um by the way, um speaking of, Liam Cohen said that Parker Washington is expanding his role, learning the entire route tree this off season.
8:11Some folks had noted that he played {quote} primarily out of the slot last year. I just wanted to kind of clarify
8:17these statements here. I know that he is a uh widely considered to be primarily a slot receiver. That being said, per Next
8:27Gen Stats, he played 44% of his snaps in the slot, 56% uh lined up outside last year, and he averaged a very impressive 16 yards per
8:39reception >> Mhm.
8:40>> while lined up outside. So, I I just like, you know, again, I'm just trying to add a little bit of context. I
8:47I I agree with the general assessment that Parker Washington should primarily play in the slot, but last year they actually did have him play a little bit
8:55more outside uh than you would think. Um but that being said, to your point, Matt, I think they just kind of sort of
9:02had BT Jay stop running in-breakers at the end of the year. Maybe I'm wrong here. And again, I'm not watching him on
9:07a on a route-by-route basis, but it certainly seemed that way. It certainly seemed like BT Jay was not running these in-breakers um as the season was coming
9:15to a close, especially after they traded for Jacoby Myers.
9:19>> Yeah, Myers, they traded for him what, in week 10, I believe he arrived uh from And then obviously that was a big part
9:25of when Parker Washington got unlocked as well.
9:29>> Yeah.
9:30>> Parker Washington from week 10 on averaged 3.1 yards per route run when lined up out wide.
9:36>> Wow.
9:37>> Like was I By the way, Jakobi Meyers 1.77, BTJ 1.29. He was a really, really effective big play receiver. He's
9:45targeted on 24% of his routes when lined up out wide.
9:48You mentioned the yards per reception in that stretch. That was 19.5 yards per reception. Like and that's something that Liam Cohen is really, really good
9:58at is crafting and creating these explosive play opportunities for the interior receiver when they're somebody like this. Again, this was part of like
10:07that little ramp up period for Travis Hunter when he was right before he got hurt. He was making these big plays from
10:13the slot receiver position, from that F receiver spot. So, yeah, I mean, absolutely a guy that that can make those plays.
10:22Parker Washington when lined up outside, inside, he showed himself to be that guy.
10:27I'm really excited to start out his profile. Like he he's not going away. I talked to Trevor Lawrence about Parker Washington and like he he doubled back
10:35on I was like, give me just a scouting report on all your receivers. He doubled back on Parker Washington and was like,
10:39"And but this guy has earned his opportunities. Like he's earned a chance to >> [laughter] >> He's like, "As much as I wanted to I
10:44want to unlock more of BTJ, Jakobi Meyers is awesome, and I want Travis Hunter to be a wide receiver." He's like, "But also Parker Washington has
10:50has earned his opportunities and you know, like he's good." So, based on what I've seen so far, I believe in Parker Washington to some
10:58degree. I think he's a really, really good player and and a very strong route runner. So, I do think that this kind of pushed Brian Thomas Jr.
11:06into a role that you mentioned like the in-breakers sort of I I do think like this they kind of just stopped throwing him the ball there. Not
11:15not totally, but they kind of stopped making him the primary read on some of those plays.
11:19And like I mentioned, I think the role is the bigger problem for BTJ. Like I I honestly we'll come back to this at the end. I do
11:27like believe he can be a better player in isolation that that was last year. I might I'm I would be shocked honestly if we get
11:35unless like this stuff's in his head and like it just you know, for whatever reason, I don't know. But I'm I'm pretty
11:40confident we can get a better player than what we got in isolation from BTJ in 2025. The the question is just like
11:46what role is he going to play for this team? Because the role last year for Brian Thomas Jr.
11:51was pretty much just like X only.
11:56>> Yep.
11:56>> Um to kind of outline that, uh Thomas in 2024 as a rookie, he took 56% of his sampled snaps on the line of
12:06scrimmage, 73% of his sampled snaps outside. He was frequently like a Z receiver. He was given a lot of layup targets. Gabe Davis when he was healthy
12:15for the 2024 Jags was basically the sacrificial X receiver.
12:20This past year, year one of Liam Coen's offense, Thomas 78% sampled snaps outside 79.9% on the ball.
12:28>> Wow.
12:28>> And that was pretty consistent like throughout the whole course of the season. That wasn't like, oh god, we got to like shove him into this No, he that
12:35was pretty much And and he did reportedly have a pretty rough training camp.
12:40Right? Like it wasn't um it was not apparently not good. He struggled with drops and maybe these injuries were starting early and they're
12:46like, oh yeah, we got to put him into this role, whatever. I don't know, but yeah, he was pretty much an on-ball
12:51player from the beginning of his rookie season to the end of it. And that also impacted his route tree, not just on some of the
12:57digs and stuff like that, but Thomas ran a nine route on 13% of his routes as a rookie. That jumped to 22% this past
13:04year.
13:05Uh which again, you also saw screens. Like remember when Liam Coen at the NFL Scouting Combine when he was first talking about Brian
13:13Thomas Jr. and this is like a little bit of my theory that maybe they they they watched the rookie film and they're
13:18like, oh man, and they kind of overloaded him a little bit. I do think maybe that's that happened to him. But
13:23remember he was talking about like, I I realize he could run all these routes.
13:26and realize how good he was going to be in the screen game. Brian Thomas Jr.
13:296.5% route percentage on screens as a rookie.
13:35He had one screen in his chart .4% of his routes last year.
13:42>> That's low.
13:43>> So, as a result, he was in in space as a rookie on 55% of his catches. He was in space on 21%
13:51in 2025. Like >> Would it Matt, I mean, again, a guy who is struggling with drops, a guy who is clearly going through it mentally.
13:58Wouldn't you try to design layup targets for this guy? I mean, you know the immense upside that if this guy can get
14:06right mentally, if this guy can start to really put it together, we're talking about a player that could be special in
14:13the NFL. Listen, no disrespect to Parker Washington, no disrespect to Jakobi Meyers, but those guys are just high-quality players. They to me don't
14:24have the ceiling to be special players.
14:26BTJ does have that ceiling. If he is going through it mentally like we saw him go through it, wouldn't it make more
14:33sense to get this guy some easy layup looks?
14:38>> Yeah, I I think so, but at the same time like they tried to do that a little not with the screens and stuff like that.
14:45And that was also part of it, too. Like we also have to remember that they they said that about Brian Thomas Jr. before
14:49they drafted Travis Hunter, and like that was kind of what they were doing with Hunter was a little bit to honestly
14:54I think a little bit too much >> like gadgety screeny stuff with him >> Right.
14:57>> at the beginning of his rookie season.
14:59So, there was there was that. I I Yeah, I I think they just struggled kind of figuring all these pieces out before
15:05they added Meyers and and got kind of the offense on schedule. Like it wasn't great. Like the start to the Jacksonville Jaguars season. Things
15:13really Yeah, it felt very messy and very disorganized on offense, which is tough for a guy like Liam Cohen who's very very intense and very
15:23really thinks highly and should think highly of his scheme and his system cuz when it works, man, it really works and
15:29it's awesome as we saw in the back half of the year.
15:32I think they're still >> to that point, Matt, do you do you remember the the sideline exchanges between Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence? I mean
15:40>> Yeah, it was like hitting his chest like putting putting it in his chest like >> his chest?
15:45>> [laughter] >> Yeah.
15:47>> [gasps] >> That guy's that guy's hardcore, man.
15:49>> He's hardcore.
15:50>> He also uh yeah, when that was kind of the he said that was a relationship like he had with Baker Mayfield, too, like
15:54very combative and intense.
15:57Obviously, I think Baker's a more just based on what I have seen from these guys, like more of a an intense person
16:02than Trevor Lawrence necessarily. So, yeah, really interesting there. But yeah, I mean, I I my suspicion honestly, and this kind of goes to my point of
16:10like why do kind of wonder if this the entire season is very uh injury tainted.
16:16>> I don't think like Liam Cohen wants to have this kind of It's not a sacrificial X profile for Bryan Thomas Jr. Let's be clear about
16:24that. But I don't think he wants to have this kind of like this much of a vertical X only type of
16:30player to to the point that go back to the 2024 season with Mike Evans who was definitely an X, right? 85% rate of
16:38snaps on the ball, 72% outside, but he only ran a go route on 12% of his charted routes. Remember Bryan Thomas
16:45Jr. was 22%.
16:46>> Yeah, that's wild.
16:47>> Now, he's not wasn't the screen Mike Evans was not the screen guy in the offense. That that X is not usually the
16:52screen guy and I don't think we necessarily need to see like oh, Bryan Thomas Jr. didn't have 6% screen route rate or anything like
16:58that. Like >> Yeah.
16:59>> Theoretically, this guy should be like an outside-the-numbers demon X receiver type even in this season where he struggled.
17:07And we talked about the success rate versus zone coverage was you know, >> uh horrible.
17:11>> Not to mince words here. It was horrible. It was not to mince words here. It was horrible. It was a seventh
17:15percentile freaking result. Obviously, that's brutal to be Anything below 70% is just absolutely brutal. But he was still 70% success rate versus zone,
17:2473.2% success rate versus press. That's 61st and 70th percentile, respectively.
17:29Like he still showed Versus man. Versus man. Versus man and press, excuse me.
17:32Yeah, like that that still that still matters quite a bit. Like when we're looking at this profile and that's again where it comes back to like
17:39what is he going to be going forward? Is he going to be this like X receiver only type and we kind of look
17:44back on the 2024 season as like I don't want to call it a fluke, but like a bit of a from a production
17:49standpoint, a little bit of a flash in the pan. For the audio listeners, James' eyes got really big when I said like
17:55fluke or whatever it is, right there. So I don't know if I freaked [laughter] out. I'm just going to be like
17:59>> Yeah, I am freaked out, 100%.
18:01>> I do think there's a couple things to mention here.
18:04And I'm saying this as somebody that I like I said at the top, I believe that Brian Thomas Jr. can and likely will
18:10turn it around.
