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Matt Harmon fantasy football takes on Brian Thomas Jr.
Every source-backed video insight STACKED has extracted from Matt Harmon about Brian Thomas Jr..
46
Insights
26
Positive
19
Negative
Insight ledger
All Matt Harmon insights about Brian Thomas Jr.
NegativeDepth ChartOct 19, 2026
Brian Thomas Jr. is losing snaps to rookie Josh Cameron, a development Matt Harmon describes as earned by Cameron's recent performance and toughness.PositiveDepth ChartOct 14, 2026
If you’re hoping Brian Thomas Jr. gets traded, you might be waiting a while ⏳ [Retweeted](PositiveNewsSep 30, 2026
We officially added a brand-new version of the In-season #ReceptionPerception Charting Tracker to the site last night 🔥 Throughout the season, you can now access my most up-to-date film takes on WRs I can chart every week. Each player has a tag for their performance relative to expectations and a quick notes section when you click on them, plus a link to a deeper notebook with film clips when available (not for everyone). So far, I have at least one game logged on the following WRs: Antonio...NegativeUsageSep 26, 2026
Brian Thomas Jr. is identified as a top-10 receiver in targets per route run, but Matt Harmon notes he has been inconsistent on the field, resulting in a 22.4% target share (23rd in the NFL). He is still working through injury and on-field consistency issues, not yet fully meshing with the offense.PositiveNewsSep 20, 2026
Brian Thomas Jr. 20+ yard in breaker over the middle vs. zone coverage. Like to see that.PositiveDepth ChartSep 8, 2026
I could be wrong , but this is my biggest area of pushback on some of the negativity around Brian Thomas Jr. at the moment. While he will be the primary X-receiver of this offense, he will not be an exclusive X, nor will he be a sacrificial X. Signed, the person who came up with "the sacrificial X." (the ceding some snaps to Hunter point is a bit more compelling imo) <PositiveNewsSep 8, 2026
One of the last takes I am filing for this season, and it's mostly just because of how much readers and viewers reacted to me drafting (no matter the cost) or saying anything nice about him in the final couple weeks of preseason: We've officially reached the point where we've overcorrected on Brian Thomas Jr. Even if you could pick some nits in what may have been overstated rookie-season production, it was still an incredibly promising first year where he didn't just operate as a vertical X....PositiveProjectionSep 1, 2026
Matt Harmon expects Brian Thomas Jr. to improve significantly this season due to better health compared to last year. Despite Parker Washington receiving more hype in the draft market, Harmon ranks them relatively close together. In best ball format, Harmon prefers BTJ for higher ceiling exposure and bigger weeks; in redraft he'd lean slightly toward Marvin Harrison Jr. Harmon is comfortable with BTJ in the fifth-round range where the wide receiver run occurred. BTJ is drafted as the second receiver but Harmon expresses reservation about that placement, preferring him as a third receiver instead due to role uncertainty in the Jaguars' receiver room. Better suited for best ball format due to volatility; in reddraft Harmon would not want BTJ as his WR2.PositiveNewsAug 25, 2026
Confirmed shoulder for Brian Thomas Jr. Not concerned but just have to hope it doesn’t involve the same (Right) shoulder that was bothering him in college or in camp 2025. He did have clean-up procedures this off-season but unsure if shoulder was involved. No fade for now. [Retweeted](PositiveUsageAug 18, 2026
Confirmation that when Travis Hunter comes on at WR, it's mainly been Brian Thomas Jr. coming off. * Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers leading WRs in camp snaps * BTJ mainly playing in 3-WR sets * Hunter focusing on one WR spot this year, outside Appreciate the detail from @ESPNdirocco here: <https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/49640399/jacksonville-jaguars-travis-hunter-2026-training-camp-takeaways> [Retweeted](PositiveSleeperJul 15, 2026
Brian Thomas Jr. is viewed as an excellent fit for best ball format in his deep threat role, with upside even if he doesn't recapture 2024 form, making him a strong fourth receiver option.PositiveBreakoutJul 14, 2026
Despite his struggles, Brian Thomas Jr. is a player who could be special in the NFL and can and likely will turn it around.PositiveRoleJul 14, 2026
As a rookie in 2024, he took 56% of his sample snaps on the line of scrimmage and 73% of his sample snaps outside, frequently lined up as a Z receiver and given a lot of layup targets.NegativeBustJul 14, 2026
As a rookie, he dropped just 1.4% of his sample targets with a 75% contested catch rate, but drops became a loud issue in his struggles.NegativeInjuryJul 14, 2026
He was really banged up throughout the course of last season, which contributed to his struggles.NegativeProjectionJul 14, 2026
Everything in regards to BTJ's 2025 was a little bit of a disaster, with a massive step back in nearly every route run statistically.PositiveProjectionJul 14, 2026
The analyst believes Brian Thomas Jr. can and likely will turn it around from his 2024 struggles, suggesting the season may be viewed as a flash in the pan rather than a true indication of his talent.NegativeMatchupJul 14, 2026
Brian Thomas Jr.'s success rate versus zone coverage in 2024 was a seventh percentile result (below 70%), which is brutal, though he showed better results against press (73.2%, 70th percentile) and man coverage (61st percentile).PositiveRoleJul 14, 2026
Brian Thomas Jr. should theoretically function as an outside-the-numbers demon X receiver type even in the 2024 season where he struggled, and doesn't need to be a screen route specialist like typical X receivers.PositiveRoleJul 14, 2026
The Jaguars attempted to give Brian Thomas Jr. easy looks through screens and gadget plays early in the season, similar to what they did with Travis Hunter, though this approach may have been overused.PositiveBreakoutJul 14, 2026
If Brian Thomas Jr. can get his mental game right, he has the ceiling to be a special player in the NFL, unlike Parker Washington or Jakobi Meyers who are high-quality but lack that elite ceiling.PositiveProjectionJul 14, 2026
Despite his 2025 struggles, Brian Thomas Jr. has elite ceiling potential and could be a special player in the NFL if he can get right mentally and put it together.NegativeInjuryJul 14, 2026
Brian Thomas Jr. reportedly had a rough training camp and struggled with drops, which may have contributed to the Jaguars limiting his role early in the 2025 season.NegativeUsageJul 14, 2026
Brian Thomas Jr. was in space on only 21% of his catches in 2025, down sharply from 55% as a rookie, indicating the Jaguars shifted away from designing easy layup targets for him.NegativeUsageJul 14, 2026
Brian Thomas Jr. ran screens on only 0.4% of his routes in 2025, down dramatically from 6.5% as a rookie, despite offensive coordinator Liam Cohen previously highlighting his screen game potential.NegativeRoleJul 14, 2026
Brian Thomas Jr. ran a 9 route on only 13% of his routes as a rookie, but that jumped to 22% in 2025, indicating a shift toward more vertical routes and away from the varied route tree he showed early on.NegativeDepth ChartJul 14, 2026
In 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. took 78% of his snaps outside and 79.9% on the ball, essentially functioning as an X receiver only, a significant constraint on his role.PositiveProjectionJul 14, 2026
The analyst believes Brian Thomas Jr. can be a better player in isolation in 2026 than he was in 2025, and would be 'shocked' if they don't see improvement from him.NegativeRoleJul 14, 2026
The Jaguars stopped making Brian Thomas Jr. the primary read on many plays, pushing him into a limited role that the analyst believes is the bigger problem for his fantasy outlook.PositiveUsageJul 14, 2026
When lined up out wide in the early season stretch, Brian Thomas Jr. was targeted on 24% of his routes and averaged 19.5 yards per reception, showing he was an effective big play receiver.NegativeUsageJul 14, 2026
Brian Thomas Jr. averaged only 1.29 yards per route run when lined up out wide from week 10 onward, significantly underperforming Parker Washington (3.1) and Jakobi Meyers (1.77).PositiveProjectionJul 14, 2026
The hope for BTJ in 2026 and beyond is that he improves from his 69.8% zone coverage success rate, with even getting back to his rookie 77% mark being 'a huge win.'NegativeProjectionJul 14, 2026
BTJ's success rate versus zone coverage dropped to 69.8% in year two (from 77% as a rookie), a sub-70% mark rarely seen among established quality starters, and his success rate on slant routes fell to 71.4% with dig routes at just 63%.NegativeRoleJul 14, 2026
BTJ's role was cut back progressively throughout the season as he struggled with zone coverage and in-breaking routes, with the team essentially reducing his involvement rather than benching him outright.NegativeBustJul 14, 2026
BTJ struggled significantly with drops in his second season, with a 9.1% drop rate that was littered throughout his film—described as 'probably the worst offender' among second-year receivers dealing with this issue.NegativeBustJul 14, 2026
BTJ's drop issues appear to have gotten in his head and created a waterfall effect throughout his 2025 season, making him probably the worst offender among second-year receivers in this regard.PositiveBustJul 14, 2026
BTJ's most significant struggle was drops, with an 11.7% drop rate on his sample targets and just 53% catch rate on contested catches (25% contested target rate), compared to 1.4% drop rate and 75% contested catch rate as a rookie.NegativeUsageJul 14, 2026
BTJ's dig route success rate collapsed from 78% in 2024 (his most run route at nearly 19% of his routes) to just 63% in 2025, a 15-point drop-off.PositiveProjectionJul 14, 2026
The key question for BTJ is whether he can get back to 2024 form or even improve beyond it, and what his role will look like within the current receiver room.PositiveInjuryJul 14, 2026
BTJ dealt with a ton of injuries throughout 2025, including a wrist injury, shoulder injury, and ankle injury, which likely impacted his performance and reception perception metrics.PositiveRoleJul 14, 2026
From a fantasy perspective, the bigger concern for BTJ is almost exclusively about his role with the team and role in the offense.NegativeProjectionJul 14, 2026
BTJ's 2025 season was one of the most mystifying developments in wide receiver world, dropping from 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns in his rookie season to just 707 yards in 14 games.NegativeProjectionJul 14, 2026
BTJ experienced a massive step back in nearly every route run statistically in 2025, with his reception perception metrics and counting stats showing a disaster compared to his rookie season.PositiveRoleJul 9, 2026
Expected to lead the Jaguars receiver room in snaps now that he is healthy, positioning him as the primary target in the offense.PositiveNewsJul 1, 2026
Brian Thomas Jr.’s 2025 season was a disaster… What factors contributed to the disappointing season and will he turn it around? [Retweeted](PositiveBreakoutNo date
Matt Harmon views Brian Thomas Jr. as a great ceiling bet in the Jacksonville offense, noting that he is not going away despite the competition for targets.