0:00If we could time travel to the end of the season, who are the players we'd most want to know the results for?
0:00That's what we're going to talk about today on The Long View.
0:00I'm Ben Gretch. You can find The Stealing Signals newsletter at bengretch.substack.com.
0:00With me as always is Jacob Sanderson. You can find his Thinking About Thinking newsletter also at jacobsanderson.substack.com.
0:00I gotta get used to the intro. It's too similar.
0:00But we are going today, we have a long, so first of all, it's funny because we just started this pod.
0:00We had this idea for the short view we've joked about it the first couple episodes.
0:00The idea was for us to get through more topics.
0:00I think it's gone well. You've been trying to cut corners.
0:00You're like, hi, we've been on the short view so long.
0:00Yeah, I've been keeping this show on such a tight leash as we've just been going two hours and 15 minutes on average.
0:00But we are starting at a time of year where we told you guys in the first couple episodes the short view is going to get long.
0:00It's going to be very long today. We're going to talk about a lot of different stuff.
0:00You sent over a little bit of some notes of some things that we're going to go over.
0:00I haven't really even looked through them, but it's a long list.
0:00And so I'll kick it to you in a second for the short view stuff.
0:00We'll talk about that for, you know, it'll be like an hour of the show probably.
0:00This may be a long show is what I'm getting at here at the top.
0:00Then we'll go into our long view topic. Our long view topic of the day is going to be a draft between me and Jacob.
0:00We are going to draft players that if we could know at the end of the year, the final results really just
0:00usage like carries or targets, receptions and yards and touchdowns.
0:00If we could know those specific results and we set these parameters, we talked about it, you know, you don't, we don't
0:00get to know everything like target share where you start to learn stuff about the team situation.
0:00We don't get to know things like where they finished, whether they finished RB five, because then you learn a lot of
0:00things about the position and all that. It's just specifically an individual's results.
0:00Who would you want most want to know who and ultimately, obviously the point is who's going to define the season whose
0:00results at this point, if we knew them would help us articulate our strategy better would help us understand how we want
0:00to play the 2026 fantasy football season. This is an idea you pitched to me when we were going over all of
0:00the early stuff for this show that this would be something we could do every August people who listen to my studio.
0:00The dealing bananas podcast with Sean Siegel. No, every, every August we do a show where we predict next year's first and second round ADP.
0:00People tend to love that one. They tend to ask for that one every year.
0:00When's that show going to come? This is a show that we're doing today that we hope to make an annual show here at the long view.
0:00It's a great idea. It's a fun one. It's a great concept.
0:00And so we're going to spend a lot of time on it.
0:00It's probably going to be a long show. We both have our list of guys and we're going to go back and
0:00forth and draft those guys who we think are the most important players back to back and probably snipe each other a little bit.
0:00But before we get into that whole concept, there's a ton of news and notes.
0:00So we got a long show. We got a long show.
0:00We're doing one show a week right now. It's too much to cover to have short shows at this point.
0:00So how are you doing? And what are we looking at for the short view?
0:00I'm doing good. I didn't schedule a date for tonight, so we can go as long as we want.
0:00I won't be cutting you off at this short window of time of 137 minutes.
0:00And I typed up almost a full page of short view topics.
0:00And that was like while I was making the list, I had several other items that I thought about typing in and
0:00like self-cut before it even got there. So we have a ton.
0:00This is obviously not an exhaustive list of every interesting thing that happened at training camp because there's like 100 of those.
0:00But these were, I thought, some of the most interesting ones.
0:00I'm going to run these through in rapid fire just like we did last week.
0:00And then, Ben, you pick whichever. You're going to do all of them rapid fire?
0:00Maybe we should cut this up a little bit.
0:00We'll see. All right. Let's cut it up. Let's cut it up a bit.
0:00All right. That sounds like a good plan. So why don't I start with transaction news?
0:00All right. Okay. Biggest one. The Washington Commanders signed Stefan Diggs yesterday.
0:00That's a huge one. The next one up is what happened right between us recording and our show getting released last week,
0:00which was the 49ers signing Debo Samuel. We haven't gotten a chance to talk about that one.
0:00And then we got some contract extensions. Jonathan Taylor, two-year extension.
0:00Bijan Robinson, three-year extension. Jameer Gibbs is widely expected to get a three-year extension.
0:00So that's the transaction news we'll start with. And then we have a bunch more news to get into after that.
0:00Yeah. The extensions to me, I never really, I guess, care that much about at this time of year.
0:00Good players getting paid. The Diggs thing is fascinating.
0:00I just wrote up a piece today where I reprojected the commanders.
0:00People who subscribe to the newsletter know that I released my full projections at the end of July.
0:00And then I don't update them. Explained a lot about why in the post today.
0:00It would just be too difficult. There's a ton of stuff that changes.
0:00The guys at ETR have a whole team doing it.
0:00You know, and they have a change log. And they're updating their projections every day.
0:00It takes a lot of time. It took me hours this morning to reproject the commanders with Diggs and reconsider all the target shares.
0:00And how the different target depths overlap. One of the interesting things that I came to in going through that process was
0:00Diggs the last couple years has been a little bit of a lower ADOT guy.
0:00About an 8.5 ADOT below the wide receiver average.
0:00He's going to replace routes. The commanders had a lot of deep threats.
0:00Like Traylon Burks, higher ADOT guy. Jalen Lane played to a higher ADOT.
0:00Deami Brown was a little lower a couple years ago when he was on this team.
0:00He's back. But he's typically been a higher ADOT guy.
0:00Diggs is taking targets away from higher ADOT guys.
0:00Bring him to more of a lower ADOT area of the field.
0:00And I think that makes a lot of sense in the sense that Terry McLaurin, your number one, is a high ADOT number one.
0:00He's like a downfield guy. Diggs is a lot more complimentary.
0:00And it actually sort of fits better than how the different wide receivers fit together.
0:00And so one of the other things that happened for me when I was projecting it out again with Diggs was I
0:00took some targets from the running backs. I took some targets from the tight ends.
0:00Some of the other lower ADOT short area stuff.
0:00Certainly Okonkwa was one of the guys I think that gets hit the hardest.
0:00And Williams takes a big hit as well. He's now massive hit.
0:00Massive hit for him. He was looking like a potential interesting number two ball-in-hand guy but maybe gets enough volume.
0:00Now he's a number three and he's a low ADOT ball-in-hand guy.
0:00I don't even think he's that. Yeah. He didn't get a ton of production in college.
0:00I do like that they used him as a rusher, used him as a returner.
0:00What do you mean you don't think he's that?
0:00Well, I liked Williams a decent amount coming out of college.
0:00I just mean the training camp stuff on him had been pretty bearish.
0:00He had not made any impact. He was mostly playing with the third team.
0:00And by all accounts, prior to the digs, their starting three-receiver set was planned to be McLaurin, Burks, Luke McCaffrey in the slot.
0:00But it seemed like Williams still needed to even pass guys like Deami Brown, Van Jefferson, Jalen Lane.
0:00He seemed pretty buried. So I would also say Williams really profiled as more of a slot guy.
0:00If I had to guess, I think that their three-receiver set now would be Diggs in the slot, McLaurin on the outside,
0:00and Burks, I think, probably as their other outside guy is what I would guess.
0:00Are you not hearing a lot about Deami Brown?
0:00No, not that much. The guys that have gotten the bulk of the positive reports, there was a lot of Van Jefferson hype early.
0:00That's cooled a little bit. Burks has gotten constant positive talk, and he's been the starting outside receiver so far.
0:00And then Luke McCaffrey was winning the slot job.
0:00I'm guessing that job probably goes to Diggs, and there'll be some rotation elements.
0:00And I mean, there'll probably be a lot of rotation elements, because they have a lot of guys.
0:00But I suspect now, Williams' path gets pretty cloudy, because first of all, there's really only one spot left in three-receiver sets.
0:00It's clearly going to be McLaurin and Diggs. But I would rather use Diggs in the slot, right?
0:00So I think probably, I'm guessing their third guy is an outside guy.
0:00Otherwise, it would be Williams playing in the slot with Diggs outside.
0:00They just don't have enough playmakers, and they took him on day two.
0:00You don't think they're going to find ways to...
0:00I mean, they didn't really find ways to use...
0:00I think that they would if they liked him.
0:00I just think the signals have been bearish. He can't get any reps with the ones at all.
0:00They're so bad. And then they went out and signed Stephon Diggs, right?
0:00My guess is if they liked more of what they saw with Williams, they might have to sign Stephon Diggs.
0:00They took Luke McCaffrey in the second round. They took Jalen Lane in...
0:01What is it? The third round? I would have to pull up all their...
0:01I think it was McCaffrey in the third and Lane in the fourth or the fifth.
0:01I think the fourth. I'm way too... I'm elevating all the status of all these guys.
0:01Yeah, Lane was a fourth round pick. I'm pulling it up now.
0:01McCaffrey was a third. Ben Sinat was the second.
0:01Yeah. But their recent draft capital into skilled position players, they've not developed any of them or used any of them.
0:01It's weird. I mean, obviously, Ja'Cory Kroski-Meritt being a glaring example as a seventh rounder who had 800 yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie.
0:01But kind of weird. Now they go out and they use another third round pick on Antonio Williams.
0:01I mean, when you say he's running with a third team and stuff...
0:01I mean, we're two weeks into camp. Yeah, we're two weeks into camp.
0:01It's just like... For a guy who's... Yeah, like...
0:01I don't know. For a guy who goes in round three, I mean, the base rate for a round three pick is not great.
0:01So I just prefer to hear something positive. You know?
0:01Yeah. It's tough. Yeah. We're basically talking about whether Antonio Williams would have had a role if Diggs hadn't signed.
0:01We're off to a great start on the short view.
0:01I guess that's what I'm saying is, like, it wasn't going...
0:01It wasn't pointing very positively for him to have an immediate role without Diggs.
0:01Anyway. And then they just added Diggs, which probably continues to speak to them not being wowed, right?
0:01Like, for instance, you know, we're going to talk...
0:01I have both of these guys on the list to talk about later.
0:01But, like, there's been reports that the Ravens have been impressed enough with Jacoby Lane and, to some extent, Surratt, that they're
0:01not looking to add a receiver anymore. There's been reports that the Patriots were looking to replace Julian Hill with a veteran tight end.
0:01They've been so impressed with Eli Raritan, that's no longer a priority for them, right?
0:01The commanders reached the opposite conclusion. They got to watch Antonio Williams for a couple months and decided we should sign Stephon Diggs.
0:01It's not going to define his career, but, like, that's...
0:01It's not what you would want a year to me.
0:01Yeah. I mean, I'm going to fade... I'm going to fade that entire line of logic, personally.
0:01I think every team does that stuff differently, and we do way too much comparing.
0:01Like, I mean, I do think it's interesting that the Ravens came to that conclusion, and the Lane hype is interesting, and
0:01I do think the Raritan hype is interesting with the Patriots.
0:01But I just... I mean, I'm not going to make strong conclusions about Antonio Williams' career based on the fact that they brought in Diggs.
0:01I'm not, you know, I got a career, but I think he's a tough guy to draft in 2026.
0:01Sure. Yeah, he's a tough guy to draft. But as far as Diggs and the rest of the guys and how that all fits, it is really interesting.
0:01Yeah, we're getting into just a nuance. It's a really interesting time right now.
0:01One of the things I was thinking might come up or I was going to ask you about is how if you're
0:01getting these comments from people, from subscribers, from readers, from whoever, you do a lot more on social media, from social media people where...
0:01I mean, I feel like we are in you-can-just-say-shit season.
0:01Like, people are just saying whatever they want. I wrote that piece, and I got...
0:01The reason I'm saying that is one of the replies...
0:01It's like Mad Libs. So one of the replies I got was...
0:01Talked a little bit about what I said about some of the receivers, and then it was like, but none of the
0:01receivers are going to be able to be good if Jane Daniels doesn't get better at throwing accurate passes or something.
0:01Yeah, no. If you like... Sometimes I read the replies to things, and it's just like...
0:01It's like utter nonsense. Yeah. And it's... Yeah, like...
0:01Now, typically, I don't mean this from thinking about thinking subscribers.
0:01The vast majority of comments that I get from subscribers are, like, pretty reasonable.
0:01But, yeah, if you want to go on social media, I mean, you'll just get, like...
0:01That's where it's the worst. But, like... Yeah. Just to defend the Jane Daniels point, like, this is the Longview pod.
0:01I mean, he struggled last year. He was hurt for most of the year.
0:01He only had 244 dropbacks. The year prior, he made it to the NFC Conference Championship.
0:01It basically carried the team there through just throwing dimes on fourth downs all throughout the year.
0:01People thought Dan Quinn was, like, this fourth down genius because Jane Daniels kept making him right with dime after dime.
0:01He went into Detroit and upset the Lions with, like...
0:01He hit Deami Brown on a huge play on a great throw down the field.
0:01Like, the whole thing was predicated on the fact that Jane Daniels was throwing such great deep balls that he was allowing...
0:01Like, creating so much space around the line of scrimmage and allowing for their, you know, run-pass option stuff around the line of scrimmage to work.
0:01He was... He completed 68.4% of his passes as a rookie in the NFL with bad receivers.
0:01Like, with objectively bad receivers. Yeah, he completely carried that team.
0:01It was Terry McLaurin and, like, a bunch of absolute goofs.
0:01Who else was even on that team? It was...
0:01Deami Brown was, like, their number two. Zach Ertz.
0:01Deami Brown was, like, legitimately their number two. Zach Ertz.
0:01The running backs were B-Rob and Eckler. And Austin Eckler.
0:01Yeah. And who... I don't even remember who was their wide receiver.
0:01It was, like, some rotation of, like, random guys.
0:01It was, like... McCaffrey was the rookie that year.
0:01McCaffrey was the rookie that didn't do anything. I had some other dust ball veteran on the team.
0:01Was Curtis Samuel still a part of that team?
0:01I have no idea. Oh, my God. That seems impossible.
0:01Who was it? I'm going to look it up.
0:01I'm going to look it up. Commander's pro football reference.
0:01Olamide Zakiya. 64 targets that year. Olamide Zakiya. Noah Brown.
0:01Everyone was... Everyone thought Noah Brown was super good.
0:01Oh, God. How is it that... Jameson Crowder was on that team.
0:01Jesus. How is it that the Commanders seem to just consistently have, like, eight different, like, guys who are, like, Noah Brown or, like, Noah Brown adjacent individuals?
0:01Like, it's just a constant rotation of that. Yeah.
0:01That's why I'm not worried about Antonio Williams because they have 97 dudes on the team.
0:01Like, they have so many guys to get reps for.
0:01Hey, he's working with a third team. He's already passed, like, seven guys.
0:01Like, he's doing great. Oh, my God. No. But, no, Diggs, as far as actually, like, how I projected it and how
0:01I see this going and Commanders signing Diggs, I don't...
0:01I moved Terry McLaurin's target share down, I think, 1.5 percentage points.
0:01I think I had 24.5% and went down to 23.0.
0:01That's, like, a meaningful drop. But I also... So, some of that was because I had his ADOT coming down a little.
0:01I had him doing a little bit more in the short and intermediate range because, as I talked about, some of the other receivers, more higher ADOT guys.
0:01Like, Luke McCaffrey, not a huge target earner if he's going to be in the slot, etc.
0:01I now moved McLaurin's ADOT a bit higher. That was going to correlate a little bit with more per-target efficiency.
0:01It's a little bit less overall volume, and he comes down from what I had as a pretty lofty projection for him.
0:01It's still strong. Like, he still looks like a solid pick in the range he was going in.
0:01I had him as a value before from kind of a projection standpoint.
0:01Now, there are more upside plays, wide receiver plays in that range.
0:01But I do think McLaurin is a pretty safe receiver in that range.
0:01So, I've always been pretty out on McLaurin. I've talked about him as, like, very good but not elite.
0:01And one of the reasons I've kind of come back around to him is the ceiling for wide receiver has come down in a way that now McLaurin's...
0:01Like, his inability... He's never had a 1,200-yard season.
0:01Well, I do think he may have his first 1,200-yard season if he stays healthy.
0:01He's coming off two of his better years with Jane Daniels.
0:01Last year was a partial year, but had the best yards per out run of his career, if I'm not mistaken.
0:01Had some career highs. Maybe it was targets per out.
0:01And he's been efficient on a yards per target basis both the last couple years still, too.
0:01He turns 31 in September. He is getting a little older, but he's a good player.
0:01He's an efficient player. And now that he's played in a little bit of a better offense for him and better QBs,
0:01we're seeing, like, a little bit more meat on the bone.
0:01Now, I don't think he's going to magically get 150 targets.
0:01That's never been his game. But I do think there's room for him to have that 1,200-yard season get a little bit better.
0:01And in today's NFL, in 2026, if he has that 1,200-yard season, that's meaningfully better than it was four or five years
0:01ago when I was first, like, anti-Terry McLaurin for people that have been, like, subscribers of my newsletter and stuff.
0:01So it's working two ways. I think he's got a little bit higher ceiling than he's ever really had because the situation is pretty nice for him.
0:01And the ceiling at wide receivers coming back toward Terry McLaurin a little bit.
0:01I think he's draftable in that range. I don't think he's, like, a huge target.
0:01Diggs, to me, winds up – he wound up, like, just above the other veteran receivers right where there's that break in
0:01the wide receiver window where the last rookies are going.
0:01And so I had him, like, just above Jalen Koch or just above Jacoby Myers and Romeo Dobbs and those types.
0:01I did have Diggs above those guys. But I see him as sort of a capped ceiling type.
0:01Some people I'm seeing – You'd have him a tier below, like Chris Godwin.
0:01Yes. And I'm seeing some people that are putting him closer to McLaurin and target earning.
0:01I think my perception of it would be McLaurin's been on the offense for two years.
0:01Diggs signed in August. And Diggs turns 33 in November.
0:01He's two years older, and it's a meaningful two years.
0:01He had a really good year in New England last year.
0:01One of the things about the per-route stats that everyone's saying on Diggs and how strong they were, he was horrible in
0:01the postseason in terms of, like, yards per-route run relative to that.
0:01He was at, like, a 2.5 yards per-route run in the regular season.
0:01You add his postseason, he comes down to, like, 2.0-ish.
0:01It brought him down a ton, and that's when they played the four tough defenses.
0:01I think that's really relevant. You had a big postseason sample of four games playing tough defenses.
0:01The only time they played tough defenses, New England famously had a really easy defensive schedule last year.
0:01Drake May, for example, led the league in EPA per play throughout the regular season and then really struggled in the postseason.
0:01I mean, he was, like, 11th out of the 14 starting QBs in EPA per play, and he won three games in the postseason.
0:01So, anyway, the Patriots struggles as a passing offense in the postseason, and Diggs struggles as a number one to go win
0:01against tougher secondaries and legit number one cornerbacks. I don't think it's being discussed enough when people just focus on the regular season data.
0:01I don't think they'll have to face number one cornerbacks, though, in this spot, which will be more beneficial.
0:01For sure. But in terms of, yes, absolutely. In terms of what Diggs still is, I'm hearing a lot of taking last
0:01year and saying, and he's going into a great spot.
0:01So, I'm just going to, like, start last year and then arrow up from there.
0:01And what I'm trying to say is, first of all, I don't think you're looking, like, for people that are just looking
0:01at the really good per route numbers in season, a regular season, I don't think they're getting the full picture of last year.
0:01Second of all, when I talk about him turning 33 this year, and when I talk about having McLaurin meaningfully higher in
0:01target share, like, I ended up projecting Diggs for an 18.5% target share.
0:01I've seen some numbers above 20%. Maybe that's more fair.
0:01He's got a better target earning track record. But again, he's turning 33.
0:01McLaurin's turning 31. And that's a big two-year gap in terms of those age cliffs at wide receiver.
0:01And then the point I'm trying to drive home about where we're starting on Diggs.
0:01The numbers last year were fantastic. I was in on Diggs.
0:01I had him on a few teams, and I was excited about the way that he played last year.
0:01I still think we should have been regressing his last year regardless.
0:01If he was in New England, we should have been regressing.
0:01They played only good offenses or defenses, and then when they played tough ones, it was a real struggle.
0:01And now you're going to a new team. You're joining a new system.
0:01You're learning a whole new playbook in August, a month before the season.
0:01I think it's a little bit of an uphill climb for him.
0:01I think giving him an 18.5% target share for the year acknowledges that Stephon Diggs has always been a stud, but he's 33 now.
0:01And he's stepping into a new spot. And yeah, I mean, he's going to beat out Okonkwo and Williams and all these other guys.
0:01Traylon Burks for targets for the most part. I don't think he's coming for Terry McLaurin in a major way.
0:01And McLaurin has that two-year connection with Jane Dinos, has been really efficient the last couple years.
0:01I don't think it's good for McLaurin, but in some ways, it's nice to have another show in town as well.
0:01So anyway, there's layers to this. Yeah, I'm probably more optimistic a little bit on Diggs than you might be on the target chair stuff.
0:01You flagged the defensive schedule and the playoff regression, which I think are important points.
0:01The other point I would put that I think I've seen some people say is, you know, he had all these great per-route numbers.
0:01And now what if this year off the ACL, he runs all the routes?
0:01And my contention would be that he probably will have worse per-route numbers.
0:01I mean, that's the case for literally everyone in the NFL, I think, is that per-route efficiency on partial route rolls is
0:01always inversely, or at least I should say on the aggregate, is inversely correlated.
0:01It's one of the biggest mistakes that people make.
0:01And especially for a guy like Diggs, who when you're limiting him, they were using him in spots where they wanted him to go win in specific spots.
0:01And he was like the first read. You're getting a really high rate of first reads and stuff.
0:01It's without question in my mind that if he ran full routes last year, his targets per-route and his yards per-route run would have been lower.
0:01He would have been running more complex concepts where he was just out there running empty routes.
0:01They took those off his plate. Anyway, continue. Yeah, I mean, that's pretty much what I was going to say.
0:01So to put some numbers to it, he ran the 419 routes in the regular season, 23.9% targets per route.
0:01In the four playoff games, 16.4%. I mean, that's way down.
0:01Well, and he played playoffs, right? So, I mean, you're getting him because they wanted to rely on him a bit more.
0:01And I think you're seeing that inverse correlation show up already.
0:01And I don't know what Washington's plan is. Like, they had Debo, who was kind of a similarly aging player that they
0:01didn't consistently use as a full-time player when Terry McCorn was healthy.
0:01I mean, I think it would be wise of the commanders probably to not use digs on, like, a 90% routes basis.
0:01We saw a similar thing with Keenan last year with the Chargers.
0:01Had a really high targets per-route run. But he had a pretty low route rate compared to that targets per-route run.
0:01And it got lower throughout the course of the year.
0:01When we're dealing with older players, I just think that it's logical coaching to say, like, no, you're not playing 900 snaps at age 33.
0:01That's nonsense, especially if they're a team that has ambitions of trying to make the playoffs and trying to keep a guy
0:01like digs healthy to be helpful in that playoff push.
0:01So, I do think someone else can get routes.
0:01Yeah, to piggyback on what you're saying and kind of pull it back into the long view thing, when I was trying
0:01to get people on digs last year, a lot of people were really out on him from the Texans situation the year prior.
0:01Which, again, that's two years back now. And an ACL ago.
0:01And an ACL ago. And he was fairly old at that point anyway.
0:01But that was a situation where he had more target competition.
0:01He was not the number one. And he was kind of running all of the routes.
0:01Now, he is good. The important point on digs and the point I was making at the time as well is, like, his target spread have been great.
0:01Every year. And they were good. And that short stint with the Texans, 23.0% solid 270 routes that he ran there.
0:01He had a 1.84 yards per out run. That's good.
0:01Behind Nico Collins. And he really kind of beat out Tank Dell that year.
0:01That's right before Tank Dell had his serious injury as well.
0:01I think if you're looking for a bull case for digs.
0:01And, I mean, it's a lot to ask because it's two years later.
0:01But I think if you're looking for a bull case for digs this year, it's that he can repeat that 2024 Texans season.
0:01And it's a better spot. You have McLaurin kind of playing the role of the Nico Collins, taking on that ex-receiver role, the number one receiver responsibilities.
0:01Digs gets to work off that in the slot.
0:01I mean, part of the fun with digs is, like, he always had a game that doesn't surprise me that he's aged pretty gracefully.
0:01Because he's so technically refined. He has great hands.
0:01He has a good feel for space. So, like, those are the things that I do think keep with you as you grow.
0:01That's why I think we've seen, you know, Devontae Adams has regressed but is still very good.
0:01But Keenan Allen has remained a productive player. And it's an archetype of player that can age better.
0:01But, like, digs hasn't really been a downfield guy since, like, 2021, 2022.
0:01I guess 2022 would be the last season he was a really effective downfield receiver.
0:01We saw that taper off in 2023 in Buffalo.
0:01And then it's just not really been a big part of his road diet the last couple of years.
0:01I think he'll be helpful. The guy that helps the most is Jaden Daniels.
0:01Because he was one 31-year-old receiver having another injury away from his number one receiver being, like, Traylon Burks.
0:01Yeah. And so, like, getting him another real weapon is a huge help.
0:01I think he's a huge target for me. And then I agree it's a downgrade for Chig.
0:01But it's not over. I still have some Chigakonkwo interest.
0:01It's two fragile over 30 receivers above him. He's been drawing rave reviews.
0:01I view him, like, a little bit worse. But similarly to Jaden Johnson.
0:01You don't like tight ends like him. I like tight ends like him if there's no one else who's credible who's going to block on the roster.
0:01Oh, is Ben Sinatra not a good blocker? And John Bates?
0:01I just don't know that, like, these guys are, like, guys.
0:01Oh, I think they like those guys. They gave Bates, like, a real contract.
0:01And Sinatra actually very limited, like, routes and stuff.
0:01But was, like, an efficient receiver at times last year.
0:01I think they think they're deep at tight end.
0:01You don't think? I mean, maybe. We'll see. I've been pretty up.
0:01I mean, I'm less optimistic now. Before, I felt like I didn't even care.
0:01Like, because I felt like Chig. I mean, all the reports on Chig where he's going to be their number two if they don't sign someone.
0:01And I felt like they were so thin at receiver that they were probably going to play a lot of 12.
0:02That was my take on Chig, too. So, I think it varies.
0:02Yeah, I think it is a meaningful downgrade. But I still don't think that they have another tight end on the roster
0:02who gives them, like, an all-around Y profile. Like, Bates is purely a blocker.
0:02And I don't know. Is with Diggs and McLaurin, is that good enough to say we're just good playing a pure blocking tight end?
0:02I don't know what to make of Sinatra. He's barely played.
0:02Like, maybe. No, I don't think those guys are going to play over Okonkwo.
0:02I just think that Okonkwo's routes were probably going to be somewhat limited by those guys being on the roster.
0:02And then just doing some different sub-packages at times.
0:02And the case for him was going to be a really high targets per route.
0:02Like, the Dalton Kincaid case from last year. Like, really high targets per route.
0:02And you hit on a lot of efficiency. And you're the clear number two.
0:02And, like, it's pretty spread. But you separate from different.
0:02The case I was making for Okonkwo, I don't know why.
0:02I guess it's kind of a pointless argument now because the case has changed dramatically, I think, with Diggs.
0:02But the case I was making for Okonkwo previously was you look at Jawan Johnson last year as a guy who previously
0:02used to be a partial route to tight end.
0:02And I felt like they had such a dire need for playmaking that they were basically like, we're willing to live with
0:02slightly inferior blocking because we really need to play someone at the tight end position that can get us receiving value.
0:02Because we don't have it anywhere else outside of Chris Alave on this roster.
0:02Right? Their wide receiver two is like Devon Vele.
0:02So I thought we would get a situation with Okonkwo where they're going to play a lot of 12 to get him on the field in the slot.
0:02And I thought he was going to play a career high amount of snaps at 11 because I just felt like they
0:02needed playmakers so badly that they were going to have to find it with him.
0:02That, I think, has scaled down a little bit.
0:02But I don't know. Where would you rank him?
0:02I still prefer him. That's not in the strange Jawan range for me.
0:02That's not crazy far off of what I'm thinking either, just to be clear.
0:02But, yeah, I have him right behind Jawan. You kind of said behind Jawan.
0:02I have him right behind Jawan as well. I think Jawan's an easier bet because we saw it last year.
0:02We saw all the routes. We saw him. He was third in the league at tight end in receiving yardage.
0:02Chig, I moved down a little bit, but only to tight end 18.
0:02So, I mean, he's still whatever. I mean, I just don't think I would.
0:02I kind of had him as a target, and I don't think I would care.
0:02I did have him as a pretty big target with the caveat that I'm not that surprised that they signed someone.
0:02But, yeah, I had him as a target and was prepared to make him a bit of a turbo target if they
0:02actually didn't end up signing Stefan Diggs. Two last things I want to circle back on that you said.
0:02The Daniels point, completely agree with. I mentioned this in my projection write-up.
0:02I'm bullish on Daniels. It made me a lot more optimistic about...
0:02I'm about to sneeze, but I think it's going away.
0:02It made me a lot more optimistic. I thought it was about to come.
0:02It made me a lot more optimistic that my bullish projection on him had a higher floor, basically.
0:02Right? And that's the way that you described it.
0:02I didn't necessarily get a lot higher of a projection for anyone who was curious because I reprojected the whole offense.
0:02But that was in part because I was already fairly bullish on Daniels.
0:02Yeah. It felt a little bit fragile. It feels a lot safer at this point.
0:02Diggs was still a very efficient receiver last year.
0:02And both of the last two years with the Texans and the Patriots had a really high catch rate.
0:02Both years has been a quarterback's friend the last couple years.
0:02The other note I wanted to make, because you said that the Bull case was sort of what happened with the Texans two years ago.
0:02There were a lot of people that didn't like the stuff with the Texans.
0:02That is, ADOT came way down, etc. And there's so many people looking at the Patriots thing as so favorable with the
0:02really high per route stuff, even at a limited number of routes, that I do want to emphasize part of the point
0:02that I think we're both making, I'm certainly making, about the Patriots' role last year with the limited route stuff and that
0:02there would have been empty routes if he would have been out there more.
0:02Is that in some ways you're just talking about the raw numbers.
0:02I mean, in every way that actually matters for fantasy football.
0:02We're talking about catches and yards. While he was with Houston in eight games, including the game that he left early with
0:02an injury, he averaged 5.9 receptions per game and 62 yards per game.
0:02While he was with the Patriots last year, just in the regular season when he was actually doing very well, he averaged 5.0 receptions per game.
0:02That's about a full reception per game less. 59.6.
0:02He was more efficient per target, closer in yards per game.
0:02Just 2.4 yards per game less. A lot more yards per reception, which was nice to see that he had a little
0:02bit more bursts coming back and all those things.
0:02But in terms of per game averages, I bet a lot of our listeners would not guess that he was better with
0:02Houston than he was with the Patriots. Yeah, I mean, I think it's a combination of the per route stuff.
0:02I think it's also just people remember that that was the year there was a lot of discussion about which Houston receiver would be the one.
0:02And it was like an open three-way conversation. And then it resolved so immediately and so decisively to be Nico Collins.
0:02And people are obsessed with who is the one and who is not.
0:02And so I think people remember Diggs being not the one.
0:02And then last year he was the one. And so surely it's better to be the one.
0:02It's a good point. It's a good point. And then driving home that that's more sort of narrative-driven.
0:02The one role he was in last year, very meaningful.
0:02And it was good that he played really well.
0:02I still think Stephon Diggs is very, very good.
0:02And I still think you can draft him. But in terms of what his actual upside is for this year, you do have to understand.
0:02The last couple years, the stats have fallen off.
0:02There are some limitations. He is 33. 33. Anyway, what is our next short feed?
0:02For 32 minutes in. Yeah, but we were going to talk about Diggs for a long time for sure.
0:02That's the biggest one. Did you have anything on Debo?
0:02Yeah, you also mentioned Debo. I don't have a lot on him.
0:02I think he's bad for Stribbling because Stribbling was a ball-in-hand guy.
0:02Debo's a ball-in-hand guy. I think there's more overlap there than there was with Stribbling and Pearsall.
0:02That's my main take. It hurts the Stribbling case.
0:02We talked about Stribbling. Who would you rather draft?
0:02Debo or Stribbling? Oh. I sort of don't want to draft either.
0:02But probably Stribbling. Yeah, I think I had it.
0:02I hope my rankings reflect this because I gave this take.
0:02But I'll double-check my rankings now to make sure.
0:02I think in a redraft format, I'd rather do Stribbling.
0:02In a best ball format, I'd probably rather do Debo.
0:02Oh, I think I would flip that. Because I think Debo's going to get a lot of early volume, but probably break down.
0:02And Stribbling's sort of a late-season hammer. And I think in best ball, those late-season hammers...
0:02I think if I draft Stribbling and redraft, I'll probably end up cutting him.
0:02I just care so much more about... Interesting. I guess my attitude on it is I don't think Debo...
0:02I think he's really limited at this point physically.
0:02And I think he's probably going to be somewhat route-limited to cater to those physical limitations.
0:02Like they've been talking about using him on special teams.
0:02So I don't think it's that possible for him to be a massive hit to the degree that I need.
0:02Talking about using him on special teams doesn't sound like limiting him.
0:02It sounds like they think he's... Well, like... 25!
0:02Oh, I interpreted that the other way. I think if a big part of their plan for him is to use him
0:02as a punt returner, kick returner, that doesn't sound like they're also going to use him on 100% of the routes.
0:02I feel like they're going to use him a little bit more situationally.
0:02But we'll see. Maybe. I mean, maybe they will.
0:02I mean, that's an interesting interpretation too. Maybe they will.
0:02But for me with Debo, it's like... In a managed league, if I did end up drafting him late or something, I'd
0:02get a free peek at what the role is.
0:02And maybe he actually has... Because we're going to get more information early in the season on him than Stribling probably now.
0:02I mean, I still think Stribling is going to start for them.
0:02Right? I think that's probably the three wide receiver set is Evan, Stribling, Debo.
0:02Okay. So, and I think it's... So, I don't think it'll be a huge shift.
0:02Like, I think Stribling... I think it's still arrow up big time on Stribling versus what it was with Pearsall.
0:02Because I think now... I think Stribling... I don't think Stribling was going to play in two wide receiver sets over Pearsall.
0:02I do think he plays in two wide receiver sets over Debo.
0:02Okay. And for me, if I'm doing a redraft...
0:02I agree. Neither of them are massive redraft targets.
0:02But I just think if one of these guys is going to be the big hit, I probably would just draft the younger player.
0:02I don't think Debo really has big hit in this range of outcomes.
0:02But like Best Ball, where I'm really floor focused...
0:02I mean, Stribling could be like Jalen Polk. Right?
0:02He could just be a literal nothing. Whereas Debo...
0:02I think we're leaving here with something. So, late round wide receiver.
0:02Like, if Debo gets me a few spike weeks early in the season, helps me advance.
0:02Like, he's done his job. Yeah. I just... I feel like I would rather have that exact thing you just said in manage.
0:02Because I may actually start him while he's running good.
0:02And then if he gets hurt or whatever or fades, then I just cut him and move on.
0:02You know? In Best Ball, you don't want those zeros in the money weeks.
0:02You know? If he does... If he only gets you a few spike weeks early, like...
0:02Yeah, maybe that's an okay advance rate player. But it's not that great for Best Ball.
0:02You want guys that are scoring in 15, 16, 17, right?
0:02I mean, you do. But you got... To me, it's just more of a floor-based game.
0:02Like, you just don't want guys who are not contributing at any point in the season.
0:02And, like, Stribling, I think, has... Like, has a risk of being, like, effectively a non-factor.
0:02Yeah. This is actually a really interesting discussion. Because I hear that point, too.
0:02All right. Let's move to the rest of the short view.
0:02All right. So, we got a bunch more. I'm now going to move to part two, which is injury news.
0:02All right. So, this will cover both new injuries and returns from injuries.
0:02So, we've got... The San Francisco substation is just continuing to deal out blows.
0:02Mike Evans has missed time with a mild hamstring strain.
0:02Doesn't sound like it's anything to be worried about for week one.
0:02De'Jon Stribling missed about a week with hamstring tightness.
0:02But I just saw he was back today. Kalen Black has been missing time.
0:02Jordan James is still out. Christian Kirk is still out.
0:02It's crazy what's going on in San Francisco. Kenyon Sadiq.
0:02This one, I think, is probably the most worrying one on my list, in my opinion, at least.
0:02He suffered a setback from recovery from an off-season hernia surgery.
0:02It's expected to cost him at least a couple weeks.
0:02They do expect him to be back for week one.
0:02Chris Rodriguez. Positive injury news. He is now back fully integrated at practice.
0:02He's operating in team drills as well. And they had mentioned that they were using him on situational stuff where they were backed up with their own one.
0:02Your boy, John Shipley, is predicting him to be the goal line running back after he's drawn positive reviews in his return.
0:02We're back to bad injury news. Devonta Smith, Makai Lemon are each dealing with mild hamstring strains at Eagles camp.
0:02Jalen McMillan has a knee injury. And in classic Todd Bowles fashion, he said there's no timetable for return.
0:02And that was later clarified to be like, he'll probably be back in a couple days.
0:02He's fine. It's not a ligament injury. He got a bump on his knee, for the record.
0:02Yeah, it was just like Todd Bowles. I mean, this is the same guy who said Bucky Irving would be back sometime in the summer or fall.
0:02But he goes out and says knee injury, no timetable to return.
0:02Which makes me think he tore his ACL. Tore his ACL, yeah.
0:02Yeah, and then later it's like, oh, he probably has a bruised knee.
0:02Maybe say the timetable. Maybe say in the next couple weeks.
0:02Right. There's clearly a timetable. He just bumped his knee.
0:02It's a short timetable. It's insane. I mean, imagine Todd Bowles being the producer of this podcast.
0:02And he'd be like, how long is the short view going to take this week?
0:02There's no timetable. There's no timetable for that. Oh, man.
0:02Jalen Waddell originally was reported as muscle tightness. Now it's being reported as a mild strain.
0:02And Sean Payton said he would miss four to five days.
0:02So I guess not a huge concern, but he was spotted limping at practice today.
0:02And then Josh Jacobs was not in pads. He's working with the rehab trainer today.
0:02That's later been called a groin injury. If you recall, that's what Jacobs dealt with through the whole second half of last season was a groin injury.
0:02So a bit of a re-injury perhaps there. And Marshawn Lloyd just continues to draw absolute rave reviews.
0:02Seems like every single practice there's a news hit about a really impressive play that Marshawn Lloyd made.
0:02So that's the injury stuff. What sticks out top of the list for you?
0:02Well, Lloyd's profile is incredibly strong coming out of college.
0:02He's been hurt a bunch. People are going to be sick of it.
0:02I think he's one of the best late-round running back options you can find.
0:02He should be screaming up your board. Because, I mean, the Jacobs stuff all last year, Emmanuel Wilson got multiple starts as a result.
0:02Yeah. As a result of this injury. This injury.
0:02Sean Siegel just did a really good injury deep dive over at Rotovis that I really enjoyed.
0:02He was an AI to do some deep injury research.
0:02One of the things that he found was, like, last year, injuries are the thing that's not priced in the most are, like, nagging injuries the year prior.
0:02Like, season-ending injuries get priced in. Like, neighbors was getting pushed down far enough, right?
0:02And he did this before the Pearsall thing. But I was like, man, the Pearsall thing is a great example of one of the things that can happen.
0:02You don't get surgery. It's supposed to heal naturally.
0:02It doesn't. Well, crap. The Jacobs thing, man. He had this groin injury last year.
0:02This guy's had a lot of work over the years.
0:02Obviously not fully healthy over the course of an offseason.
0:02And you start to think about how this could play into.
0:02This guy's had 260 touches, I think it is, all seven years of his career.
0:02Does he get 260 touches this year? I mean, I'm taking the under on that right now.
0:02I mean, he might be suspended. That's still ongoing.
0:02That's the other thing going on. Lloyd's the only show in town behind him.
0:02We talked about Chris Brooks and we talked about the running backs.
0:02But, I mean, when I did the projections for these guys, I was like, one of these backup running backs should be getting drafted.
0:02Looked into the Brooks thing a little more and was like, well, Brooks isn't the profile.
0:02So I said, like, yeah, Lloyd's a thing. I mean, for anyone who listened to the ETE pod or read the offseason
0:02stealing signal series I was writing up. I was like, look, Lloyd is a thing.
0:02You've got the injury concerns with him. Well, now it's neon lights that he's a thing.
0:02It's very, very clear. People are still going to be a little concerned from an injury perspective.
0:02But I've seen some of the social media posts that people are like, oh, man, like everyone's overstating how great Marshawn Lloyd looks.
0:02Like there's a reason that you've heard that name Marshawn Lloyd is a sleeper the last couple of years.
0:02Like his prospect profile. Yeah, he's a real prospect.
0:02Yeah. He was legitimately interesting. He was a bit of a boom bust prospect.
0:02But like, hey, man, if you're going in the 180s, I don't give a crap about the bust.
0:02Huge breakaway run rate. Yeah. Huge breakaway run rate.
0:02Huge evasion rate. This is a guy who makes, like, it's like Ken Walker.
0:02Like it's, it's, I was, I was comparing him to some other dudes.
0:02Like he has a better miss tackles force per touch rate and better breakaway run rate than Jeremiah Love.
0:02Like Jeremiah Love has more overall work. He has more yards after contact.
0:02He has a better receiving profile. He's a better overall back.
0:02But like, that's the kind of thing that Marshawn Lloyd's profile is, is like, it's an elite tackle breaking and explosive run profile.
0:02There should be no shock that he's flashing in camp, that everyone's saying he looks fast.
0:02There should be no shock. Yeah. I mean, the reason why I say it's boom bust is if people are like listening
0:02and, and haven't paid attention to the 2024 running back class in a while is, is just, he didn't get a ton of work in college.
0:02Wasn't a ton of receiving volume in college, had fumbling issues in college.
0:02So generally it was like, this guy is super talented.
0:02Ben mentioned all the great, um, sort of like per touch stats that he had, which were really positive.
0:02And then it's just, you know, is this a guy that can be relied upon?
0:02Can he, can he be relied upon to pull onto the ball?
0:02Can you relied upon to stay healthy? Can he be relied upon to keep those per touch rates up if he gets
0:02more volume and all that stuff are very legitimate concerns?
0:02Like Trey Benson had kind of a similar profile and it hasn't, I was thinking of him.
0:02Yeah. It obviously hasn't panned out for Lloyd yet for two years, but like, this is a chance to get in on a existing, really strong talent.
0:02And it's encouraging to hear how good he looks at camp because part of the concern with a guy like Lloyd is
0:02like, you know, when you haven't really played football for two years, like, is that impressive stuff still there or has it
0:02just gone pretty, pretty great to hear that it's still there.
0:02It's healthy now and that he's looking great. Um, so yeah, I think he's a massive priority.
0:02Great call. The, uh, on. Yeah. Yeah. Well said.
0:02I would, I would just, um, echo that point that you made that, you know, for all the positive, I was saying
0:02he's, he's a really good late round target while he's cheap.
0:02He's not necessarily someone because of some of those reliability concerns that were even there in the prospect profile, someone to chase way, way, way up.
0:02But like, if you're in home leagues and stuff, this is the kind of guy you take at the back of your,
0:02um, the back of your running back room in, in a home league draft in around 14 or whatever.
0:02Cause they're not going to totally, he's not going to go that high.
0:02Um, I mean, he, I, I think he is a straight up better pick to me than like Woody Marks and Tyrone Tracy.
0:02You go like 40 picks ahead of them. It's a way better pick in, in managed.
0:02Yeah. I mean, I think definitely than Woody Marks.
0:02Woody Marks has no efficiency upside. Even if he gets to work, like, what are you going to get out of Woody Marks?
0:03Anyway, nothing. See, Rod, see Rod back at practice.
0:03You talked about the John Shipley thing. I want to talk about that because, um, I, I mentioned the Shipley thing and
0:03I was like, he was, the whole reason I brought it up was like, I was like, God, the tank Bixby thing.
0:03Was, was so tilting last year, all the hype, et cetera, et cetera.
0:03But I want to believe it this time about facial too.
0:03He is just like the greatest preseason player of all time.
0:03I'm pretty sure. I think just certain guys live for training camp.
0:03Cause take things. He's also getting constant, uh, training camp hype this year.
0:03He got concentrating camp hype this rookie year, even when he was terrible, like tank B, tank Bixby in August is Jim Brown.
0:03This is, this is the tank Bixby year to be in.
0:03Yeah. I'm in, I'm in on Bixby. Um, just like, I'm moving Marshawn Lloyd up my rankings right now.
0:03I need a, I need a second. Um, the, uh, the, um, cause because I, I, I have Bixby up my ranks and I realized, you know what?
0:03Lloyd needs to be up, up there ahead of Bixby even, but both these guys are, those are my two favorite sort of late round running backs.
0:03Still, they're both rising. I don't think they're going to be late round running backs for long and competitive stuff.
0:03But, um, C rod, the, the, the whole shipping thing was that I was saying all that stuff about Bixby.
0:03And then I was like, but I want to believe it this time on basial tootin.
0:03Um, there was this idea that C rod might not be fully healthy for week one.
0:03They're like that, that came out. So I released my, my running back tears the other day and I had tootin pretty aggressively.
0:03Priced. I talked about how this whole running back dead zones are really hard range to like rank.
0:03It's just a big tier and you're kind of more profiles, uh, chasing in the, in the running back dead zone.
0:03There's guys that are clear dead zone profiles that you want to be out on, uh, in my opinion, at least.
0:03And then, you know, younger players like tootin could be guys that you'd be in on.
0:03And so it's like, how do you really rank them?
0:03I'm not trying to say that I'm super into tootin, but I'm going to put them ahead of the guys that I think are like clear fades.
0:03Um, and so I had tootin, you know, at the top of that tier, actually, uh, we had talked recently about that
0:03group and I had picked generic price at cost as the best, but I was starting to think tootin was going to
0:03be the one that was going to be the best at cost.
0:03Release that article. Like the next day it's like Chris Rodriguez is back in practice and they're splitting work 50 50 and looks great.
0:03And it's like, he's at facial tunes in a complete timeshare.
0:03And I'm like, reverse facial tootin. Like this is, this is the type of situation we should be paying attention to, uh,
0:03in camp and quick to adjust our, our rankings on in my opinion.
0:03And so I moved tootin back quite a bit.
0:03I moved Rodriguez up a little bit as a result of this.
0:03I still like tootin quite a bit more. I have them quite a bit higher in my, my running back ranks, but,
0:03um, yeah, that's kind of how I'm looking at it.
0:03What are you thinking? I, uh, just foiled by Shipley again, foiled by Shipley and optimism again.
0:03Well, I put out a tweet yesterday, which I think is like, so going to be what happens, which is so annoying as a person.
0:03It's pretty interested in playing Jacksonville backfield, which is that tootin has gotten only positive reporting.
0:03And now Rodriguez has gotten really positive reporting, but like, I just think that the people, a lot of the people who
0:03are drafting tootin and a lot of the people who are drafting Rodriguez are living in their own worlds.
0:03And like, and they're not interacting with each other.
0:03So I think that the end result of this is tootin goes up around and Rodriguez goes up.
0:03Are so excited. And the tootin people are so excited.
0:03And then you get back and it's like, wait, why did this backfield get three rounds more expensive?
0:03Because John Shipley is all about optimism. It's the Shipley effect.
0:03That's, that's exactly what it is. Jacob. Two Shipleys are, they're not passing in the night.
0:03Two Shipleys are just going full speed ahead. He's optimistic.
0:03He's going to tell you really good things and you're going to talk about it on your podcast and you're going to aggregate the heck out of it.
0:03And we're going to give John Shipley all of the name value.
0:03I mean, I love the guy. He's the most, he's a great guy.
0:03He's like, even DM me a few times. I like John Shipley a lot.
0:03He knows the game. He's like, oh yeah. Smart dude.
0:03Like, and he, he knows, he knows like knows fantasy stuff.
0:03Like, but is he the most, like, he's got to be the most discussed beat writer podcast.
0:03That's my point. And he, that's been my whole point with him is he knows how to, he knows how his bread is buttered.
0:03He knows how to get in front of us.
0:03He knows how to get on this podcast. We're not talking about any other beat reporter by name.
0:03John Shipley is the goat. Just wait a second.
0:03Wait a second. I got another beat reporter. Okay.
0:03Before with the other names you mentioned, I'm not going to talk about Waddle.
0:03That's just typical for him. Uh, Kenyon Sadiq. Yeah.
0:03If anything, it's a positive get injured. Now it'll save you from getting injured later.
0:03You know, you're very into Waddle. I'm a little concerned about Waddle's reliability.
0:03I'm moving him into like a range where I probably won draft him a ton.
0:03Not necessarily like down. I am moving Sadiq down, especially as you say, this is the one that you're most concerned about.
0:03So let's talk about that a little bit more.
0:03Cause he's yeah. Yeah. I mean, he's been a really good price as a mid first round pick.
0:03I legit profile going way late for reasons that are hard to understand.
0:03And when you have, he broke the combine record for 40 time for a tight end and he's a first round pick.
0:03I mean, they're going to want to use him when healthy.
0:03I am a little concerned that Mason Taylor led this team in targets and receptions last year was like a legitimate, decent day to rookie.
0:03Um, and yeah, I mean, there could be some routes, uh, issues there.
0:03Obviously I think when you go and you get Sadiq, um, as the, as the new guy in the first round, you're
0:03going to use him quite a lot. But if he's hurt right now in camp, you're talking about maybe a slower ramp up for the routes in season.
0:03You do have a capable other young tight end that you can use early in the year.
0:03So what are like three capable receivers? So there's not like a need to be in 12 all the time where I moved him.
0:03Well, how far down are you moving Gadsden to?
0:03We're probably going to get to Gadsden, but we're going to get to Gadsden.
0:03We are going to get to Gadsden. He's on the list.
0:03Um, and that's, that's the other beat reporters. Cause we're going to talk about Sadiq when we, Daniel Popper.
0:03Let's just talk about him. Let's talk about him both because we're on the tight end.
0:03So yeah. Um, yeah, Sadiq and Gadsden. I moved down.
0:03I moved Gadsden down further. Um, I guess maybe I should say why we're moving Gadsden down.
0:03So, um, that is a Daniel Popper report that had, let me find it here.
0:03There we go. A Rondae Gadsden has been running as the tight end three in camp thus far per Daniel Popper, Charlie
0:03Kalar is, there's a quote, very clearly tight end one while Njoku and Gadsden will be rotating in as the tight end two, depending on situation.
0:03Um, much of that's owing to, uh, to Gadsden's run blocking is what, um, Popper was saying.
0:03Um, but you know, run blocking doesn't matter for tight ends.
0:03You love, you loved saying that that was your favorite moment.
0:03You know, the annoying thing is I've actually drafted Gadsden.
0:03So I take no pleasure from it, but I, I do, I do love to bring up tight end run blocking on this program.
0:03I mean, um, certainly the, the camp news for the first two weeks of camp and, and the fact that the run
0:03blocking tight end has been out on the field more so that their offense can function as they, you know, establish other
0:03things is the only thing that matters. We should just victory lap everything about fantasy.
0:03All right. Well, I'm not going to go that far, but I, I mean, so I don't actually care that much about
0:03the, um, who do we want to talk about first?
0:03Gadsden or Sadiq. They're both moving. They're two young tight ends moving down.
0:03Well, I was going to ask you a Sadiq versus a Conquo and Gadsden and Juwan Johnson.
0:03I have all those guys sort of in the same range.
0:03So I moved. I had Sadiq. I had Sadiq in this.
0:03I mean, actually what's, what's interesting is that this used to be a range of tight end that I loved.
0:03Um, and it's getting like clobbered on a day-to-day basis.
0:03Like that whole range of Jawan, strange, um, a Conquo Gadsden, Sadiq, Schultz, Hunter Henry.
0:03I liked a lot of those guys that I liked drafting multiple tight ends in that range, like on FFPC, especially.
0:03Um, so it hurts to see a lot of those profiles take a hit with the dig signing, the Sadiq injury, and
0:03then some of this Gadsden news, but, um, yeah, I've moved both Gads.
0:03I've moved Gadsden down. Like I would just rather have Terrence Ferguson.
0:03Straight up. I mean, I really liked the Ferguson play, but I, that's, I mean, that's maybe fair.
0:03Part of the reason I would still be in on Gadsden would be to say, I think he's going to pop up.
0:03He's going to have some spike weeks. I think he's a better best ball play now.
0:03Cause I, I think it's kind of absurd to think that, uh, a year two tight end with his prospect profile, which
0:03was very strong in his first season is just going to not play.
0:03I mean, I think that's people remember the Albert O the Greg, there is weird stuff.
0:03Well, it's not Albert O there is weird stuff that happens at tight end, but Albert O situation quite different.
0:03He didn't have he Albert O didn't have games.
0:03Like he never popped. He never popped to the degree Gadsden did.
0:03I agree, but it's like tight. My main point is the tight end is weird.
0:03Like just generally as a position tight end is weird and different coaches seem to have very different preferences for what they want out of their tight end.
0:03And it's a position where, and, and Gadsden is, is kind of weird.
0:03Like he's a very unique player. He's a converted wide receiver.
0:03He becomes a tight end really, really thrived last year has like very clear strengths.
0:03Um, but they go in, they add Kalar, they add Njoku.
0:03And then you get a new coaching staff coming in with different priorities.
0:03Like it is, it's concerning. And I, I was, I was optimistic on Gadsden this year.
0:03I've moved him down. I hope that the market is going to move him down a lot so that I can get them really cheap.
0:03Cause I'm not like giving up all hope for this profile by any stretch.
0:03But I do think like, you know, if you're, if you're drafting a, if you're, if you're drafting a best ball draft
0:03and you want, like you've taken Brock Bowers and you just want a tight end too, like you, you, that tight end
0:03to better fulfill the role of like giving me a playable floor in case Brock Bowers turns an ankle for two weeks.
0:03And like Dalton Schultz is going to fulfill that role to me better now than an Arande Gadsden that I have no clue what he's going to do.
0:03If I'm drafting a main event team and I just need to start one tight end and I'm taking shots on four
0:03different profiles and I need one to pop. I'm still have interest in Arande Gadsden in that range where I'm, I just
0:03need to take shots on multiple guys and then pick one.
0:03So for people who don't know what he's talking about in FFPC, it's tight end premium.
0:03And there are two flexes. You can play up to three tight ends.
0:03And so like we had Harold Fannin on all the teams last year.
0:03I mean, I, I did on all mine with, with Siegel and I think you and I had them together.
0:03And, and so you, in that format, because when the late round tight ends profiles do hit, it's easy to jam them into one of the flex spots.
0:03Cause you have two flexes. You can start to three tight ends and with a tight end premium, it makes them very viable.
0:03Um, so yeah, I completely agree. Gadsden. And there's this idea of cranking purple, which is like what, you know, we used
0:03to talk about with crack rock on ship chase.
0:03Yeah. If you miss out on the early tight ends, people who don't know what crack rock means are curious what you're
0:03talking about at this point, but that's a screen name.
0:03Yeah. Anyway, we have a new podcast, Jacob. The, the, the, the, the ship chasing lore might not be, uh, lined up for everybody.
0:03Crack rock is a, crack rock is a, is a, a former and current guest, uh, of ship chasing once per year,
0:03uh, comes on and, uh, he coined the term cranking purple, which is the color of the tight ends are on FFPC.
0:03Anyway, the idea is because it's tight end premium, tight ends have a value.
0:03But if you miss out on the early guys, you know, the, that mid range of tight ends tends to get really priced up.
0:03So if you're playing an FFPC, a pretty viable strategy is to just wait on tight end and then draft like a
0:03ton of different profiles at the end of your draft and kind of see which one sticks.
0:03So, you know, you might draft like one stable guy is like a Schultz, but then you take a Terrence Ferguson and
0:03an Arande Gadsden and a Kenyan Sadiq and, uh, Eli Stowers.
0:03And then, you know, hopefully you find one sustainable starter.
0:03My point is in that format where you're kind of really looking at, okay, what if I need one of these guys
0:03to pop Gadsden and Sadiq pop a lot for me in that mindset, the floor just got really scary, like legitimately scary.
0:03Um, and the best ball format where I need that floor, I'm, I'm probably, I'm going to look other directions until he falls way down the board.
0:03Um, but I hope he does because I want to be on Gadsden Sadiq.
0:03Um, I'm not moving down as much. So like, I think, can I come in on Gadsden before we move?
0:03Yeah, come on in, come on in. I, I, I think so early in the off season coming off a rookie year
0:03where he had a bunch of strong games. He was like the tight end eight in, in early, like pre-draft.
0:03Yeah. Best ball. He's already going like tight end 18, 19.
0:03And so when you're talking about falling way down the board, you're talking about going meaningfully further than that.
0:03Ferguson's going like tight end 27, just for some reference points for people that aren't drafting a massive amount.
0:03My take on him at tight end 18, 19 is a lot of this FUD about his role was already baked in.
0:03And as far as, uh, best ball is concerned, I actually think, I mean, you don't get hurt by zeros.
0:03You just talked a minute ago about with Debo, just getting a few usable weeks, like Gadsden being out there and catching a few touchdowns.
0:03I still think he has the clear best receiving profile here.
0:03And Joku stuff has dropped off. His targets per hour run were terrible last year.
0:03Kohler has like 40 career targets or something like his career highs, like less than 20 catches.
0:03I agree with you, but they might not give a shit.
0:03They might not. They might not. They might just be disinterested in receiving at tight end.
0:03The point is that may not be the only option.
0:03That might not be the only outcome. That's what everyone thinks right now.
0:03That's what everyone is saying. Coach Bigindex has got all these quotes on Kohler and is hammering it.
0:03It's all over the news and Coach Bigindex does incredible work.
0:03I'm not coming at him, but there's, it's all over everywhere.
0:03The Charlie Kohler stuff. What about the fact that when Darren Waller got healthy last year, Mike McDaniel had a role for
0:03him from day one for an athletic tight end down the field with some actual ADOT different than the stuff he did
0:03with John who Smith the year prior that was all quick hit stuff.
0:03I didn't think there'd be a role for Darren Waller.
0:03Mike McDaniel had something schemed up for him. And that's exactly what Arande Gadsden's profile looks like.
0:03You mentioned the, the, uh, Oh, Quagbanam thing. And I know, I know that you weren't making a huge point, but I
0:03pulled this up and I wanted to circle back to it.
0:03A Quagbanam had fewer receiving yards in his entire career than Gadsden had last year.
0:03He had two career games over 60 receiving yards.
0:03Gadsden had five last year alone. He had 164 yards against your Colts.
0:03He had some really legit games. He had a four game stretch where he hit 68 yards plus four straight games, five plus catches, four straight games.
0:03It did fall off a little late. There are concerns here, but this idea that a year too tight end that did
0:03what he did 664 yards as a rookie had some real meaningful production, uh, would be like a tight end 18 or
0:0319, which he is right now is already, I think a value proposition on some of these concerns.
0:03I agree with you. The floor just got a lot lower and I agree with you.
0:03The weird stuff happens in tight end. I think the whole market right now thinks that's the only thing that can happen though.
0:03And I'm just trying to emphasize that like a scenario where he's in and out of the lineup a little bit.
0:03He has some good games injuries, open some things up for him.
0:03He emerges again later in the season, which we've seen with late round players that it takes a, like we talked about this with Jacoby Myers.
0:03I think we're at late round players had to have to break out twice.
0:03It happened with Jalen Coker a little bit. Gadsden's good at the game.
0:03I genuinely believe that. I think you believe that too.
0:03Maybe they won't have a role for him. Maybe that's not the plan week one and they end up having a role for him.
0:03Uh, maybe they have a role for him in week one.
0:03There's a lot of different things here that I think are not.
0:03Still, even the Popper report is like, it's, uh, I mean, it's bearish, but I do think that it's not as it's
0:03not like Popper saying, um, Gadsden's going to be a healthy scratch or something like that.
0:03It's the, what they're saying is, is that Kolar is going to be tight end one.
0:03And what I really think that he means by tight end one is he's going to be the Y tight end on early down 11 personnel sets.
0:03Meaning when they're in run situations, Kolar is going to be the Y tight end.
0:03And obviously they'll sometimes pass out of those situations.
0:03And then he's saying, you know, the, the, the, the tight end to think in 12 personnel, it's going to be sometimes
0:03in Joku, if they want to do some stuff close to the line of scrimmage, and there'll be Gadsden if they want
0:03to try and use a more of a vertical element.
0:03So, I mean, that's bad. I think the one thing he didn't address, but even when you said early down 11 personnel, let me just dive into that.
0:03Cause that's not a huge thing. What about like two minutes?
0:03Get at. Okay. Well, that's, that was the next thing I was going to say is what he did not say in
0:03his piece at what my follow-up question would be is who is the Y tight end in passing situations?
0:04Um, because I mean, maybe it's Kolar or even like, cause there's a lot of those early downs in two minute drill
0:04early downs when you're trailing in the second half.
0:04Right? Yeah. So it's, I mean, it's, it's what, so when we're talking about like the Y tight end, it really is two different roles.
0:04It's there's a lot. So like, uh, this is like a Jared cook is a guy that comes to mind.
0:04There's a lot of different tight ends come to mind is he was a guy who played in 12.
0:04Um, and he would play as the Y tight end in 11.
0:04If it was third down, if it was the two minute drill, or if the team was trailing in the second half
0:04and they were, they were passing, which that's a lot of plays.
0:04Um, and Eric Ebron too, right? Right. And because, yeah, there's a ton of guys.
0:04Kobe Fleaner was like this. Um, the, the Goodyear, Greg Bolsa, Chad, he was like this.
0:04Um, there's, there's a bunch of guys that are like this and it's, it's usually Evan Ingram like that.
0:04They just played Evan Ingram and Jack. They just played them all the time.
0:04They just played them and dealt with it. Yeah.
0:04But like they had, um, Jawan Johnson's been like this in the past, like not last year, they played him every snap,
0:04but in previous years he was like this. Um, and you can get like a 60 to 70, you get a 60
0:04to 80% route rate kind of depending on the flow of the game.
0:04Like there's going to be certain games where you're throwing a lot and there's going to be certain games where you're not.
0:04And so there's, there's variation to it, but you can have big route spikes.
0:04I mean the issue. So to me, the Kolar thing isn't actually the issue.
0:04There's a lot of focus on Kolar in the fantasy community.
0:04I do think he's like completely viable 18th round basketball tight end.
0:04But if we're talking about like actual value, um, that's crazy to me.
0:04You think Kolar is a legit 18th round pick and you want Gadsden to fall even further than like his 14th round ADP for the listeners.
0:04Charlie Kolar's career high is 10 receptions in a season.
0:04Yeah, but he has a real college profile. Okay.
0:04But he's been playing for the Ravens. Like he's actually like gotten on the field in three tight end.
0:04Sure. But he's been on the field with like a specific blocking role.
0:04Like he, and, and the chargers talking about how they, they want to use him more as a receiver and he's their type.
0:04Like my point on Kolar. He was really efficient as a, he was really efficient as a receiver there.
0:04When I say it's crazy, I don't think you're like certainly wrong.
0:04I, it's shocking to me that we're extrapolating to this degree.
0:04Cause like he has been really, really efficient to my, to, to, to, to just emphasize that point.
0:04His career at 10 yards per target, which is really good for tight end.
0:04Let's talk about his college profile, right? So he has three seasons of more than 40 receptions and more than 590 receiving yards at Iowa state.
0:04That's a real college receiving profile. Okay. So it's not four years in the big, in the NFL where he didn't do any of that.
0:04Right. But in a specific blocking role next to Isaiah likely a Mark Andrews.
0:04Isn't he next to, I mean, a declining Mark Andrews and a often.
0:04Sure. Isaiah likely. I just, I mean, my, my point is not that I'm not drafting Kolar ahead of Gadsden, but tight
0:04end is like my fundamental assumption about tight end is that it is both weird.
0:04And it's like heavily influenced by coaching preferences. And so it is a position where if a coach wants to tell me
0:04over and over again, the beat writers want to tell me over and over again, this guy's a tight end one.
0:04We think he has way better receiving upside than he ever got a chance to show in Baltimore.
0:04We want to use them a lot as a receiver.
0:04Like I don't really believe it, but I believe it enough to click him once every, every once in a while in round 18.
0:04Like that's like, like who else am I going to take in round 18?
0:04Darnell Washington. Like that's like the type of names we're going against.
0:04Right. It's like, sure. I actually like I'm sold.
0:04I'm sold. I didn't realize how good his college profile was.
0:04I was, I was genuinely pushing back on that out of.
0:04Ignorance I'll say. And, and I think you, you've explained that well.
0:04Um, but anyway, I, it just seems crazy. Cause like, again, the 10, the 10 receptions over four seasons as a career
0:04high, this has been like, maybe it's a frog in boiling water, but like, I was where you're at now, like a month ago.
0:04And like, I feel like I've steadily gotten my head around it a little bit more, but like, it is still alarming.
0:04I agree. And I, and I think the immediate outcome is that Kilar is going to have like 20 catches this year.
0:04Yeah. Cause that, that's a, that's a clear out possible outcome.
0:04And Gadsden meanwhile had like legit games, like multiple times as a rookie, a late round rookie, like on a crowded team.
0:04Everyone makes excuses for lad that like Keenan Allen was stealing targets for him.
0:04And everyone makes excuses for Q QJ. This was a crowded room.
0:04What about the fact that a Rondae Gadsden is a day three tight end stepped into that room and had the stretch that he had.
0:04Like he was really, really productive for a while.
0:04Yes. He lost work after that and wasn't productive down the stretch.
0:04I there's concerns with Gadsden too, but it just, that's why I say it's crazy to me.
0:04The Gadsden's already going like tight at 19 and you're like, I need him to fall further, but also I'll draft Kolar.
0:04And maybe that's right. I, I think all three of them are draftable late round tight ends in basketball.
0:04I think Gadsden is the only profile that I'd have interest in as a redraft option.
0:04But, but I do think like, so comparing to Ferguson, Ferguson's another guy who projects to be somewhat rotational.
0:04Um, but like, and obviously does not have the profile from last year, but he does have way higher draft capital.
0:04He had a pretty strong college profile. And like, to me, it's like, I don't know.
0:04Do I want to bet on the tight end who is going to have rotational issues, but the team can't stop talking
0:04about how much they love him and they want to dream up plays for him.
0:04Or the guy who's running and all of his routes with DJ Uyagolole at camp.
0:04Like, I just want to take Terrence Ferguson. Like, I just feel like there's fewer obstacles.
0:04Is that the Clemson guy that transferred to UCLA or whatever?
0:04Yeah, that's, that's the third team quarterback that Gadsden's.
0:04And I got his pronunciation right on the first try.
0:04So that was pretty good. Oh my God. I have no idea how to say that.
0:04That is impressive. Uyagolole. Okay. Uh, I, I, I, I sewered it on ship chasing the other day and then I, I practiced in a mirror.
0:04I'm kidding. I didn't, but I, uh, that's who Gadsden's playing with.
0:04I don't even know how to say his name.
0:04Great. Perfect. Awesome. So anyway, I think that it's, I think that there's, I think that there's still outs for Rondé Gadsden
0:04that what I was trying to say is that the collar thing, um, is less annoying to me for Gadsden because I
0:04already viewed Gadsden's likely ceiling role as not being like the, the, the quote unquote inline tight end on early downs.
0:04And I didn't really care, especially at his price.
0:04I was like, if he can be in 12 and in 13 and he can be the primary pass catching tight end
0:04on third downs and two minute and comeback mode, I can get like a 70% route rate out of that.
0:04Potentially that's more than good enough for me, especially at his price.
0:04I think he could be a smash. The concern for me with Gadsden is less collar.
0:04It's, um, it's in Joku being ahead of him is concerning and something I did not expect.
0:04It doesn't have to stick forever, but it's concerning.
0:04And then the other part that's concerning is that the, the receivers like just keep drawing really, really strong reviews.
0:04They're, they're loving Trey Harris. They're talking about all the ways that they want to use QJ.
0:04They're talking about lateral, if everyone, Brennan Thompson, my guy, Brennan Thompson has been like the talk of camp.
0:04So, you know, this is why I can't take Brenton strange.
0:04I think Brenton strange is like basically in, in manage.
0:04It's so hard to draft him because you got three really good receivers for Jacksonville.
0:04And then if any of them get hurt, they're just going to use Hunter more.
0:04And they're already talking about like using Hunter more than people realize.
0:04But at least he's going to be on the field.
0:04Right. Fair. I mean, like, like part of the path to Gadsden being on the field a lot was, I was like,
0:04I'm not that sold on this receiver room. Maybe they play a lot of 12, but if they love their receivers and
0:04they want to run their passing game through the receivers, like this may not be how we would do it, but there
0:04is a logic to saying if you're Mike McDaniel and you love their receivers, maybe he just looks at it and says,
0:04well, I want to run this passing game through the running backs and through Ladd and QJ and Harris.
0:04And so all I want for my tight end is run blocking.
0:04I'm not going to throw them anyway. I think that's a possibility.
0:04But my point is that's what everyone thinks right now.
0:04Everyone thinks that's all that can happen. That's not what everyone thinks right now.
0:04He's going ahead of Dalton Schultz. He's going to get 90 targets.
0:04Dude, he was going tight end eight and he's going tight end 20.
0:04Now, my key was all the way. It was a bad price.
0:04I mean, and that's before they even signed David Njoku.
0:04So like things change meaningfully. Okay. I mean, that part of it I'll accept, but I don't know why the tight end
0:04eight would be a bad price in a year where to me, there's like no good profiles after about tight end six.
0:04And like, he's a year two player who had a legit rookie year that we should be building off of.
0:04Like, I mean, the Brent and strange things like this is a guy we've seen limitations to over multiple years.
0:04But I mean, again, I think the massive disconnect between a redraft format and a best ball format where I get that.
0:04Like if you're playing in a home league, especially Brent and strange is meaningless to you because he's going to have probably
0:04the same value as whatever you can stream off the waiver wire.
0:04If you're playing in a best ball format, my opinion, the opportunity cost of foregoing a strange or Schultz who has a locked in role or Hawkinson.
0:04Yes. Probably. Gabson is very real. Like if you, I just, I just want you to tell me it has 11 targets this year.
0:04That just doesn't seem likely. How likely is that?
0:04That everyone else stays healthy. Not that likely. And Joku is going to stay healthy.
0:04And like what's, what's the situation there for Kolar?
0:04He gets like 50. Oh, they just don't use a tight ends in your mind in that situation.
0:04Well, I, yeah, I think that there's there. I mean, it's this offense is like a million moving plates, but like the
0:04situation in which they're actually committed to playing Charlie Kolar 75% of the snaps.
0:04Again, that's just one slice of the range of outcomes.
0:04I'm not saying that's what's going to happen, but I'm saying if like, we're going to play this game later today, I
0:04imagine, you know, and like, this isn't even something we can look up in the parameters of our game, but imagine we
0:04change the rules and I'm like, I want to see Charlie Kolar snap rate.
0:04And if someone came to me and they were like, Charlie Kolar is playing 77% of LA snaps.
0:04I'm like, well then throttle down the tight end target chair.
0:04And I want to draft more of Vlad McConkey and the running backs and Quinn Johnson and, and Trey Harris.
0:04That would be my conclusion. That does seem possible.
0:04I just want to keep emphasizing that I, I'm not, when I'm pushing back, I'm not saying it's impossible that the, the,
0:04the part for me that I keep going back to, again, this is a long view pod.
0:04This is a guy that was a really productive player, had multiple, they were actually split by an injury season, but multiple
0:04really good years at Syracuse, a sophomore and senior years, had a really good year as a rookie last year.
0:04I think he's legitimately good as a receiving tight end.
0:04I agree. I agree. I'm playing a lot of devil's advocate.
0:04I want to emphasize like, I agree with you on, I'm going to get, just let me, I want to be in on this guy.
0:04Let me finish the, cause I don't know that I've really articulated the point.
0:04I think a big part of my point with him is about the uncertainty of seasons.
0:04And so that's part of also why I think the best ball part of it is intriguing.
0:04It's funny. I agree. I I'm there with you.
0:04I, I, I don't, I, I don't do as much best ball, uh, you know, readers of the, of the sub stack
0:04know that I, I think in the late rounds, you probably want the guys that are just going to be out there on the field.
0:04Like Juwan Johnson is, is the easy answer there to me.
0:04Some of the other names you mentioned, I mean, Hunter Henry's fine.
0:04Um, some of the other names that you mentioned to me are a little bit tricky, like strange.
0:04I mean, may never actually have like big, big games.
0:04I think he's going to get squeezed from multiple directions.
0:04Like I actually think Coziel is going to have a real red zone role potentially this year.
0:04Like if strange is a between the twenties tight end with a small target share, like catching a run tight end, like
0:04he's, he's a worse version of Gadsden at that point.
0:04Like even if he's on the field a lot, but anyway, um, I, I, the, the, the best ball thing I I'm trying to say that I agree.
0:04It's just a, it's a very complicated, uh, range and we're going to be drafting some FFPC teams together and we're going
0:04to have to be making decisions on late round tight ends together.
0:04So this is a good thing for us to hash out.
0:04I'm taking Gadsden on multiple of my FFPC teams, which like, I don't feel awesome about because I could probably get him
0:04three rounds cheaper, but I don't feel like those teams are dead by any stretch.
0:04Like he's still a guy I want to be in the mix that I still think is interesting.
0:04I just think it's interesting that like you would need to get him three rounds cheaper.
0:04There's not a lot of year two tight ends that did what he did last year.
0:04I mean, period. Well, I like the Ferguson comparison deeper.
0:04So I wish I didn't take him three rounds.
0:04Do you think he's going to fall three rounds over this?
0:04Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I just think that's a fascinating thing because my point gets back to the uncertainty of thing.
0:04I'm a hundred percent confident of in this whole discussion is, is not whether he should fall or what will happen, but
0:04I am a hundred percent confident that he will fall that a hundred percent confident.
0:04I just think that's really shocking from the perspective of the actual profile.
0:04And I want to, what I'm trying to emphasize about the, the positive outcomes for Gadsden that I see are, um, are,
0:04are that like, there's going to be people that are going to be tweeting at me or messaging me after week one
0:04and saying, you're so stupid for that argument you had with Jacob, uh, in August.
0:04Look at a Rhonda Gadsden played 15% of the snaps in week one.
0:04I honestly think that's a, it's not even just a part of the range of the outcomes.
0:04I get the FUD where that may be like the most likely outcome.
0:04That's what a lot of people are saying. What I'm trying to emphasize with our whole conversation here is we don't know shit beyond that.
0:04We don't know David and Joku staying healthy at this stage of his career.
0:04David and Joku lost a lot of the receiving production last year.
0:04Like, uh, Adam Levitan had a great tweet about it a few months ago, right after in Joku signed, he was like,
0:04this guy lost a bunch of receiving to Harold Fannin last year.
0:04He stayed as a free agent, like all off season.
0:04He finally signed late. Nobody seemed to want him.
0:04Uh, and he signed cheap and like inexpensively. Kolar actually got a big deal.
0:04I'm concerned about Kolar, but the fact that Kolar has never really had a meaningful receiving role at the NFL level to
0:04your point, I think what you said about if, if Kolar plays 77% of the snaps, then you just throttle down the
0:04tight end target share for this team. Kolar would still get targets in that scenario, but he wouldn't be like, a massive K dot.
0:04Yeah, he would, he'd be fine. He would be like, whatever, uh, which is a viable reason to take him the 18th round.
0:04Cause to your point, there's no one else to take in the 18th round, a tight end or whatever.
0:04But, um, back to the Gadsden thing. It's a, it's an argument that like, look, Kolar could get hurt.
0:04Look, and Joku could get hurt. This is a deep team right now in August.
0:04We do this every year. You still want to care about profiles.
0:04This is a season where there's not a lot of intriguing tight ends and we're doing sort of a dead zone running
0:04back thing where we're like the, and I've made this case in my tight end work this off season that like with
0:04the advent of these multi tight end, uh, not the advent, but the increased usage of these multi tight end sets.
0:04There's going to be a lot of, uh, offenses that are going to split tight end routes.
0:04And then there's going to be some that are highly concentrated and we probably want the ones that are actually highly concentrated.
0:04And so I'm not trying to say it's like ridiculous, but we are doing a little bit of a thing with some
0:04of the profiles where it's like, just cause this guy's going to be in best ball.
0:04It makes more sense, but just cause this guy's going to be on the field running a ton of routes.
0:04Does it necessarily mean we forego profiles that we can't tell ourselves a story about, which this gets to Kenyan Sadiq as well.
0:04And why I've been in on him. We can't tell ourselves a story about it now.
0:04We don't know exactly how it works. People didn't ever move Harold Fannin up last year, despite how great of a profile
0:04he was because of the same thing. He can't play enough behind David and Joku.
0:04They couldn't wrap their heads around how a tight end two was worth drafting any higher than, and, and the reality was
0:04he just was good enough that they had to get him on the field.
0:04Now I agree with you that they, the, the, the tight ends, a weird position and the chargers, all the stuff that
0:04we're hearing out of camp is like, even if Gadsden's good enough, they don't need him.
0:04They want to build the offense out of the running backs.
0:04They're throwing a key to Mitchell a ton. They want to build their offense out of the, out of the wider series and stuff.
0:04But the whole case, I don't hear anyone making about Gadsden is if he's good enough, even if he's running with the
0:04twos and threes right now, that shit doesn't matter, man.
0:04I, I, people, they come into training camp with an idea that ADP is perfectly efficient right now.
0:04And then we have to move guys up or down just based on where they were running in camp.
0:04Gadsden was already too cheap for what his profile was.
0:04He had moved too far. And just because he's running with the twos and threes for the first two weeks of camp,
0:05doesn't mean you have to push him down multiple rounds from there.
0:05To me, that is a weird response for the market.
0:05And I, you may be right. You're way more plugged in than I am.
0:05But to me, that is a weird response for the market.
0:05And it's a, it's, it's the wrong way to play fantasy football.
0:05I see it way, like I've seen it more and more and more over the years as we get more and more news.
0:05It's part of why we're doing the short view right now is this stuff, but people come in and they just go,
0:05I'm going to make adjustments to ADP with every bit of news.
0:05Like ADP is efficient. My take is ADP is massively inefficient right now.
0:05It's been inefficient all off season. There's a ton of opportunities across a lot of different positions.
0:05Go look at the mid rounds at wide receiver.
0:05You and I were talking about it before the show, but there are, it's a, it's a joke between round four and round 11 at wide receiver.
0:05There are so many players mispriced right now. There's a bunch of players mispriced that I've written about that have immediately risen a ton.
0:05I'm not saying I necessarily moved the market on them, but like Keaton Mitchell's one, we've been talking a lot about thing.
0:05Bigsby, he's been skyrocketing. Marshawn Lloyd, we talked about earlier.
0:05He's been skyrocketing. Like those guys were mispriced already.
0:05They've also been getting positive buzz, but so it's kind of banking.
0:05Both points at the same time, but ADP is inefficient.
0:05That's part of why people want to move stuff based on news.
0:05But in some cases it's inefficient already. And then people want to make adjustments based on news where that stuff's already baked in.
0:05There was already stuff baked into Rhonda Gadsden coming into camp after, after he had fallen for months, baked in about concerns
0:05that this kind of thing could happen early in camp.
0:05If this is still going on like closer to week one, I'll probably move him further and further down my ranks.
0:05But I just, I don't know. I think it's a misunderstanding.
0:05It's a lack of creativity of how the season could go for the Chargers to think that what Arande Gadsden did last
0:05year can't pop up in different ways throughout an NFL season.
0:05Like it's very likely that he's going to need to be used at some time this season and that he's good and
0:05that he'll be in a good offense and that they'll be able to use him the same way that Mike McDaniel used Darren Waller last year.
0:05Even if he doesn't have a big week one role, the story of Arande Gadsden's season is not going to be written.
0:05So anyway, I just, I have a really hard time with this idea that we're like, we have to move him way
0:05down because there's been reports that, that he's running as a tight end three.
0:05I think it's a misunderstanding of the different profiles.
0:05It's a misunderstanding of where David Njoku's at in his career and what impact he can have and who Charlie Kolar is
0:05and what the ceiling looks like for that player.
0:05Even if he's playing a ton, there are ways you've described good ways, reasonable ways, ways I agree with that this could
0:05play out very poorly for Arande Gadsden. I'm not saying that's not a part of the range of outcomes.
0:05And we agree that the floor has gotten way worse, but I mean, people are just like super confident that what's happened
0:05in the first two weeks of camp means that the floor is the only thing now.
0:05And there are no ceiling and ceiling outcomes. And I just think that's, that's why I'm pushing back so much, not on
0:05you, but on like the stuff about the market and on anyway, we can move on.
0:05But I mean, I'm going to move them down because I had them, like I had them ranked well ahead of the market.
0:05I'm going to move them down too. Probably not even as far ahead of the market as I had them in my heart.
0:05Cause like I, I ADP bake my rankings. Um, but I'm moving them down.
0:05Like my point is not my, my, my, my very slight pushback, I guess, like for me is I didn't think his previous ADP was efficient.
0:05So I'm not moving. So, but I'm questioning my assumption that his previous ADP wasn't efficient.
0:05If that makes sense. Like I, I was a lot more optimistic than ADP and I'm, I'm starting to suspect that ADP
0:05may have been more correct than I was. However, his new ADP will still almost certainly be lower than my rank.
0:05Than where you rank him. That's, you just described exactly my whole impassioned two minute, five minute rant, whatever that was.
0:05You just described exactly where I'm at. I have to move him down.
0:05Cause I, I was ahead of even where he was, but like, if he's going to fall that much further, I'm still
0:05going to be drafting a bunch of Gadsden. And if people are wondering like, so in my like rankings, if people have
0:05my rankings, like part of this is like a mechanical issue of, of best ball rankings where I just know he's going to fall.
0:05Like, unless the news drastically changes in the next week, but if the news stays stable for a week, he's going to
0:05fall, but it always takes a while for ADP to catch up to what's happening in drafts.
0:05So like, I just punish guys because I don't want you to catch a falling knife and then you can just wait a week.
0:05And if you want to go back to draft him, you can just draft him to get them at a lower price.
0:05Um, but anyways, so that's like a specific mechanical note, but from the, from like a redraft perspective from, if you only
0:05had one team perspective, I still want to play Gadsden.
0:05I I'm less, I'm less enthusiastic about it, but I'm pretty sure we're going to get a more favorable price for it that I'm still going to like.
0:05So, um, I'm going to be in on, on wanting to play Gadsden.
0:05Sadiq. Um, he's an interesting player. He's a fascinating player because I was, um, I think, I think it's safe to say
0:05I was probably lower than you were on Sadiq as a prospect.
0:05And yet I was still drafting him a lot because his price made like no sense to me at all.
0:05Um, for a guy that was going mid round one.
0:05Um, I mean, most of the jets skill player prices, honestly, has not made a lot of sense to me.
0:05Um, I guess it makes sense to me. Like it's easy to make sense of people not wanting to draft jets players,
0:05but, um, I think that they've just been, I guess, like poorly calibrated and like overly focusing on the negatives considering the
0:05profiles that they have, especially the two young guys and Cooper and Sadiq, who I thought we were getting pretty close to free rolls on round one players.
0:05Um, and it was especially odd that like Cooper was the more expensive of the two, you know, given Sadiq was pick 16 picks higher.
0:05And I think a more interesting prospect. So, um, yeah, I, I've been clicking a lot of Sadiq.
0:05The hernia stuff is tough. Um, he's by no means off my board.
0:05It's another spot where I think the market will punish him more than I do in my rankings.
0:05But yeah, it's a, it's a raw prospect who I think needed a lot of development in as both a route runner and as a blocker.
0:05It's a tough position to learn. You know, it wasn't that long ago that we used to say rookie tight ends can't do anything.
0:05And that got immediately disproven. Um, but like you look at Colston Loveland last year, I thought was a much better prospect
0:05who proved to be a very good player. Um, but he missed most of camp with, uh, recovering from shoulder surgery.
0:05He got really slow played early in the season and he was pretty much unstartable for half of his rookie season.
0:05Um, and so if Sadiq's going to miss the majority of training camp, like it's, it's hard for me to then project,
0:05Oh, this is a guy you can just slide your lineup week one.
0:05That doesn't mean I don't think that he's going to pay off, uh, down the line, but I do think the outlook has changed.
0:05I think, I think we should probably expect as a median outcome that this is not going to be quite as much
0:05of a week one impact if he doesn't have that ramp up period time with the team.
0:05But, um, yeah, I agree with all of that.
0:05Uh, I think for home leagues and you just detailed that he's like basically undraftable.
0:05He's going to get cut by whoever drafts him and you can pick them up.
0:05Um, I mean, it just feels like that's the way that plays out.
0:05My question to you is with all the Gadsden stuff, Terrence Ferguson is fun, but you have, uh, and even later ADP
0:05and, and like for home leagues, shallower leagues, whatever, not playing on FFPC deep tight end premium formats.
0:05He's not even draftable probably. Um, I mean, he is, if you want to just take a wild last round swing, but
0:05me, yeah, he's not going to, I'm talking about like most home leagues that are like 16 round leagues and like 15 tight ends get drafted.
0:05He's going to be my last tight end pick in every single home league because he's, I, well, you don't even have to start him.
0:05He's going to play the free look game and you just get like, sometimes the Rams do things.
0:05They keep everything very close to the vest. And I just think there's like five percent.
0:05I think there's a 5% chance that we watch that game and we go, Oh shit.
0:05Oh shit. Terrence Ferguson. They decided they're going to build the thing out of Terrence Ferguson.
0:05Yeah. And he, and everybody wants to make a number one waiver.
0:05So why not just already have him on your team?
0:05And if he doesn't work, you can just cut him before Sunday even happens.
0:05Anyway, that's a, well, in some formats and other formats, he's locked through week one.
0:05And that would be my counter is that there's other things you can do with that last pick.
0:05But I, I've been writing it up the same way.
0:05And I completely agree with you about Ferguson. Um, as far as like, uh, uh, one of the, the most interesting late
0:05round tight end, like take a peak place. But what you're acknowledging is a 5% chance is that there's a really low floor there.
0:05The question that I'm, I'm winding my way to is we both like Juwan.
0:05Um, I have concerns like even into the, like Isaiah likely Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid range.
0:05I like Kincaid is an example concerns. Yeah, me too.
0:05I mean, if I'm in a home league, I'm drafting one of Bowers, McBride, Loveland, or Warren.
0:05That's what I'm, that's where I'm going. Does this just mean that we have to take one of the top four tight ends?
0:05Yeah, it does. I mean, because like the range of tight ends that I liked, and I spelled it out earlier that
0:05it was net like I was, I've never been into the range of Goddard, Andrews, Kincaid.
0:05That's like a likely that's been a stay away for me.
0:05Jake Ferguson, that's been a tough range at ADP the whole year.
0:05The range I have like in the deeper formats where you're either picking three tight ends or you're, you're, um, or it's FFPC is that next group.
0:05That group's gotten worse. And so, yeah, if you're saying, if I'm in a home league and I only need to draft
0:05one tight end, like I'm probably just drafting Bowers.
0:05If I can't draft Bowers, there's, I'm probably drafting McBride, Loveland, or Warren.
0:05Fannin is in play. Fannin is a good pick.
0:05And then you have, I mean, you have the potential for like Laporta and some of these other guys, but it is.
0:05I don't mind playing Laporta, but I'm probably already have my tight end by the time he comes off the board.
0:05Right. I'm not that into pits or craft. I, and I, so my point there is that the mid round tight ends
0:05are often, they often wind up being overpriced. What those profiles are to me is probably not, um, as good of a
0:05pick from an opportunity cost standpoint as well, I mean, it depends on the league you're in.
0:05If you're in a home league, some of those guys might go really late.
0:05You know, you might get pits in like round 13 or something.
0:05I don't know. I mean, it just kind of depends if enough people like push tight end, but relative to the early
0:05tight ends and the opportunity costs there, I'd rather probably just take one of the elite because I think the top four
0:05tight ends and I have fan in five, the top five tight ends are all really, really, really interesting.
0:05That's where I was going. Like the whole pushback on Gadsden and the whole reason this conversation has evolved.
0:05And one of the ideas for the show today was to finish up our wide receiver discussion last week and do a tight end discussion.
0:05We basically just turned the short view into a long view section of how to play the tight end position.
0:05You're nearing an hour and a half and we're halfway through the first segment of the show.
0:05So listen, you were right about it. This is the way that they're, this is the way that our listeners are going to have to live.
0:05They're going to have to get used to this, but we just had our whole tight end discussion in the middle of the short view.
0:05And so we'll, you know, we'll just throw that into the show notes or something.
0:05Um, the whole thing about Gadsden and Sadiq and those profiles and Ferguson is those are the upside profiles this year.
0:05If you're looking for this year's fan and it's probably one of those three dudes.
0:05If not, you're talking about Jawan Johnson. You said strange.
0:05Like I thought TJ Hawkinson in here. You mentioned Henry Goddard.
0:05You're talking about a lot of routes, right? Routes, but low ceiling.
0:05They're not going to contend with somebody in the Bowers McBride Loveland.
0:05Warrantier is going to put up enough of a ceiling that those dudes, they can be tight end five, but there's going
0:05to be a gap between tight end five and the higher levels.
0:05You can still play those dudes, but I'm not like from a strategic perspective.
0:05I'm not like, oh, I'm going to get a huge benefit.
0:05I'm like, I'm not losing as much as I should be at tight end.
0:05Yeah. Anyway, I was going to ask you about that.
0:05I agree. Yeah, I totally agree. And it's tight end stuff to talk about because I think the way you play it
0:05in a home league versus in an FFPC versus in a best ball draft are just the tight end position and what
0:05you need from the tight end position is very different.
0:05Um, and the margins are very different in that late group.
0:05Yeah. If I'm in a home league, like, yeah, a lot of those tight ends you mentioned Schultz, Henry, Andrews, Goddard, like
0:05a lot of these guys, it's like, they're all the same guy and they're not meaningfully different from whatever one of them
0:05you can get off waivers on a week to week basis and just stream the position.
0:05So I agree. Like if you somehow find yourself not having a, uh, one of the top five tight ends, like I
0:05do think it's worth taking a late round shot on a Gadsden or on a Ferguson, or maybe if Sadiq is able
0:05to get enough practice in before week one Sadiq, because you're right.
0:05Those are the upside profiles. Take a shot on.
0:05I don't think that you're getting anything from like, I better get Hunter Henry on my roster week one.
0:05It's like, I, yeah, I mean, you could stream them week one, but like, I think he's going to be immaterial to other guys you could stream later.
0:05Um, but yeah, for me, if I'm in a home league, like I can't imagine a home league draft that I do
0:05like a Yahoo or ESPN league, or my tight end is not Bowers McBride, Loveland, uh, Warren fan, and maybe Laporta, but probably one of the top five.
0:05Yeah. Makes sense. Let's keep, uh, plugging forward on the short view real short view.
0:05Um, okay. That's, that's all my injury news. I'm going to rapid fire through all of the rest.
0:05Okay. Um, and then maybe, maybe pick one or two that you find interesting.
0:05So, uh, conflicting green Bay news. We had a tweet that had read starting practice at a two wide receiver set.
0:05That got people really excited. Then we had Jordan loves say Matthew golden is going to be playing X receiver.
0:05Um, obviously didn't clarify, like it is theoretically possible.
0:05He could play X in three receiver sets, but not play in two receiver sets.
0:05Anyways. Um, I thought that was interesting. Cause we talked about green Bay on the show last week.
0:05Really quick. I'm going to go really quick on that.
0:05Read read being in a two receiver set was the less likely outcome.
0:05It was the thing that caught my eye more because that's not the thing we expected.
0:05We expected golden to be two receiver sets. Totally.
0:05I mean, it also could have been like literally just one random snap, but I, I thought it was meaningful that that
0:05even that that was the first half of a practice that they did that.
0:05There's some degree of intentionality. Um, it was meaningful to me.
0:05Uh, Kayshawn booty still likely to be traded. Uh, Eli Raritan, my, my goat, uh, earning the tight end to roll rotating
0:05in with the ones and it's reporting their life.
0:05They're likely to hold off a veteran ad. I'd mentioned that earlier.
0:05I'd also mentioned Jacoby lane is the quote talk of camp.
0:05Um, there was a report today that he's potentially pushing for shop baby to be the wide receiver to, uh, Denzel Boston.
0:05Your UW guy is just like getting a massively loud, uh, drum beat from every reporter in Cleveland.
0:05Casey Concepcion also getting positive reports. Um, this isn't really a report, but just like the vibes seem like both those guys
0:05are going to play a ton immediately from week one.
0:05Cedric Tillman's playing with like the third team. I haven't heard a report on Jerry Judy in weeks.
0:05Like I don't seem to be popping up on my timeline.
0:05Um, so positive for the rookies there. Uh, Josh Downs, my, my favorite player, maybe in the NFL.
0:05Uh, working inside and outside. Um, and there was a quote from Shane Steichen that said, he's a guy that can play inside and outside now for us.
0:05And his role is going to improve this season.
0:05Um, they may still sign Keenan Allen. Um, the, the Colt squad show, which, uh, it was so funny.
0:05Cause like Zane Danani, who tweets out a lot of the stuff, he was, he was sending me a link to the
0:05Colt squad show where they'd said something. I was like, I promise you, I already listened to the Colt squad show, but
0:05it's crazy that you do this for 32 teams.
0:05Um, but anyway, um, there was a, they were saying if they do it, do sign Keenan Allen.
0:05They think it would be a third down specialist role on limited snaps.
0:05Wouldn't affect downs and snaps. Obviously might affect his targets.
0:05Uh, Parker Washington projected the lead, the Jaguars and snaps and production per you say it.
0:05John Shipley. I, I, I, I'm, I'm, I'm buying this one and Oh God, I'm going to wind up telling you in
0:05a couple of weeks that I was crazy. And, uh, also per John Shipley, uh, he had projected Travis Hunter to play
0:0550% snaps or on a recent podcast. He said he expected to play 80% of the snaps on defense and 50% of the snaps on offense.
0:05And he said that would not come at the expense of Parker Washington.
0:05Um, I've been reading into that. That, that is a reason to stop drafting.
0:05Jacoby Myers, um, has been a note that I've kind of taken from that.
0:05Cause that seems to be, I've been seeing that too, but Jacoby Myers, they just signed him to a $30 million fully
0:05get it was 30 million of fully guaranteed money.
0:05A lot of the Jaguars reporting could be explained.
0:05If the Jaguars decide they're in the CFL this year, they get to play 12 guys on the field.
0:05Yeah. Maybe that would be helpful. All right. Continue.
0:05Because it's weird, right? Like, but it's, you do get, you do get to a math problem.
0:06Like on one hand, we're hearing Parker Washington is not coming off the field.
0:06He's going to put the most snaps. He's getting the most production.
0:06Then we hear about how, uh, BTJ is having a great camp.
0:06Maybe it won't lead to as much production, but he's irreplaceable on offense.
0:06He draws number one corners. Um, and he opens the entire offense up for us.
0:06And then you're also hearing Hunter is going to play, you know, up to 50% of the snaps.
0:06It's like, if all those three things are true, it kind of has to be Myers coming off the field.
0:06But I also agree with you that in a vacuum, it doesn't make that much sense for Myers to play half the snaps.
0:06See, this is the problem. And then also they want to play more tight ends.
0:06This is the problem. This is, this is what people want to hear.
0:06And I'm just telling you the reports out of Jacksonville are always what you want to hear.
0:06It's the bait. It's the chum on the top of the water and all you little fish are biting it up, man.
0:06Jacoby Myers got 30 million guaranteed after they traded for mid season last year.
0:06He got a $60 million contract and they're just going to bench him.
0:06He's not going to play this year. All right.
0:06Okay. Here's my question. I'm not in on Myers.
0:06I am not in on Myers, but I'm not.
0:06Here's my, here's my question. Here's my question to you.
0:06Um, I'll, I'll way too convenient. We're going to name him the inconvenient truth.
0:06Jacoby Myers is the inconvenient truth. Oh man. But, uh, I mean, I've been, I agree with everything you're saying about that, about the way too convenient angle.
0:06I all, I also have moved buyers down because there is a certain point where I'm like, okay, I'm one of the fish eating the chum.
0:06I'm 100%. I moved him down. I moved Parker Washington up.
0:06I'm ready to go. This is what I want to hear.
0:06I know. Okay. So, so last year, this is the stat I had last week.
0:06Last year was an average of 2.58 receivers per route run on Jacksonville dropbacks.
0:06So let's all even, I'll even increase that even though they added a bunch of tight ends.
0:06I'll be generous. So we have 260% of rope participation to work with.
0:06I want you to, to guess the week one rope participation for the Jacksonville Jaguars wide receivers.
0:06It's got 167. Okay. No, 260. It's got to add to 260.
0:06Oh shit. 260. All right. I'm going to give you, so Parker Washington's your, your starting slot, right?
0:06But he's presumably going to come off in two receiver sets.
0:06Well, they've been saying he's going to play slot while Shipley's been saying he's going to play Z slash flanker and he's
0:06going to lead the team in snaps. So if you add that up, basically he's saying he's going to play slot and
0:06three receiver sets and Z and two receiver sets.
0:06So I don't think Brian Thomas really comes off either because you have the vertical element.
0:06You need that. It threatens downfield. I don't think any of them is going to be super high.
0:06I get 260. That's what you get. I mean, so it becomes like 80, 80 for Parker Washington, 80 for Brian Thomas.
0:06And then, yeah, I have to go down on Jacoby Myers to like 65.
0:06And then I'm only leaving what? Like 35, I think, or, or 45, 80, 80, 65, 35 would add up.
0:06And I'm giving Travis Hunter 35. I do think Hunter is going to come in under 50%.
0:06I think the idea is going to play 50% of the snaps for the year is actually a good prediction.
0:06I shout out John Shipley. Great prediction there, but I don't think he's going to.
0:06Yes. I don't think he's going to in week one, but somebody will miss a little time, get banged up and, and,
0:06and Hunter's role will expand those weeks. He's going to be like 35% of the routes week one.
0:06That would probably, or 30%. Maybe it's 80, 80, 70, 30, you know, something like that.
0:06Yeah. 80, 80, 70, 30 is like exactly what I was going to say.
0:06So I'll, I'll, I'll be a P wash bowl.
0:06I'll say 81, 79, 70, all right. All right.
0:06You, uh, that's we're right in the same range.
0:06I do agree though with Hunter. It's more like I, the odds that those top three guys stay healthy for 17 games really long.
0:06That's not how NFL usually works. Um, injuries might be the inconvenient truth.
0:06And then that's the higher rates. I'm making a rule.
0:06Injuries are the convenient truth. I'm making a rule to get our short view a little faster.
0:06No more talking about John Shipley reports, at least on this episode.
0:06What do you have anything else before I can circle back to your other reports?
0:06Um, oh, I have a couple of the things.
0:06I don't know if you care or not, but, uh, the bucks, they were, they're using a heavy dose of pony in camp.
0:06Um, that was in the Jeremy Fowler article. They were talking about how much they're using pony.
0:06And then today roster watch was like tweeting out snaps and they had like 30% of their snaps with Irving and Gainwell
0:06both on the field together, which was pretty darn interesting.
0:06Um, obviously Jim McMillan wasn't practicing today. So maybe that's part of why, but that's probably a big part of why this
0:06is the kind of thing that like, if your third receiver is out, then you work on the non three receiver set.
0:06Like it's the kind of thing that I think we overreact.
0:06And even prior to the McMillan thing, there has been, they were doing some of it about how excited they are to use pony.
0:06Yeah. But sure. Like what would you do in camp on a day where your third receiver is at?
0:06Well, yeah, you'd probably work on this package that you want to do a little more of.
0:06Now the idea that they want to do a little bit more of does seem a little bit interesting and Gainwell's, I think interesting.
0:06Um, yeah, I want to go back to downs working inside and outside.
0:06He's the most mispriced wide receiver in fantasy right now.
0:06He's the most mispriced player in fantasy right now.
0:06Yes. I am doing like, yes. Yep. I don't know.
0:06He, he should be like around. He should be around five pick to me.
0:06Like if his ADP was where Christian Watson's was, I would be like, it's a really tough for me to decide between Josh Downs and Devante.
0:06This isn't fair. Cause I told you this before the show.
0:06I've been saying this for weeks. Okay. You're giving the hot take that my projections have been out for two weeks and
0:06he's right there for me with Christian Watson and Mecca Buka and Lad McConkie in my projections.
0:06People are really high on a Buka and maybe I'm a little low on him.
0:06I can understand how I could be. And he could hit in a meaningful way.
0:06I have all these guys for between 110 and 130 targets.
0:06Um, but downs to me is like, he's going to get a lot of volume in this passing game.
0:06It's, you know, it's, uh, adjacent to the Alec Pierce stuff where I'm a little bit lower on Pierce.
0:06I think Pierce got the huge contract and he's going to play a significant role for this team, but it's going to
0:06be a lower target role than downs because it's by necessity.
0:06He had 49 catches last year. So how we go through last year, did I go through like all the stuff that
0:06I wrote up in my, or sorry, did we go through last week?
0:06All the like splits that I wrote up in my article about all the different, like in this formation and how like
0:06downs and Pittman's were like always overlapping and Warren's and Pierce's were always overlapping because it's, it's interesting stuff.
0:06So I'll, I'll pull it up. Um, cause you, you get downs.
0:06I'll give you down. You're the Colts fan. You, you get downs.
0:06All right. Sweet. But I want to hear, I want to hear the take.
0:06I want to hear the take. Yeah. So, I mean, a lot of it was like, I sort of had like a,
0:06even before I got really into the data, we talked about this way back on Jacob's gives the show.
0:06I was like just watching the team every week.
0:06I felt like downs had the most overlap with Pittman in terms of being like a, a true drop back player.
0:06That is a guy that you want to have.
0:06Um, now I'm trying to pull up the darn.
0:06You, you, you told me this. We talked about it on Kim show.
0:06I do remember this now, but that was a, but I had, I had all of the, I had all the snaps.
0:06Anyway, here, here we go. The cliff notes for Michael Pittman's.
0:06Yeah. I have it up here now. I think here we go.
0:06Yeah. So all 11 personnel pass phase last year, Josh downs led the team with a 23% targets for outrun Pittman 22 Warren Pierce for 20 and 17.
0:06Then if you isolate, um, non-play action, 11 personnel downs, 23 Pittman, 20 pierce, 17 Warren 16.
0:06If you go to third and fourth down passes downs, 29 Pittman, 19.
0:06Warren and Pierce 15. If you go first and second down play action.
0:06So the opposite. Now we're looking at like more built off the run type Warren 36, Pierce 24, then Pittman at 23,
0:06then downs, 21, 12 personnel Warren 28, Pierce 25, Pittman 20, 12 personnel play action.
0:06Warren 31, Pierce 28, Pittman 19. My point being is that there's actually, yeah, please break that down.
0:06Cause you just yelled a bunch of numbers. I fell asleep.
0:06The listeners have been hitting fast forward for like 10 minutes.
0:06All right. So to summarize all that, basically I split up into these two components of what I think are more like your pure drop back passing.
0:06So 11 personnel. And then beyond that, I went even further to don't play action into third downs.
0:06And on the other side, I looked at 12 personnel and further into early downs and play action.
0:06And with the idea that one of these groups of past plays is more about pure drop back passing.
0:06The other group is a little bit more about taking advantage of the, I don't know, intermingling or the, uh, the interaction
0:06of the run game with the past game. And in that latter group, what you saw is that Pierce and Warren had
0:06easily the highest targets for a run much higher than Pittman and downs in the pure drop back situations.
0:06It was downs and Pittman. And then a big gap to Warren and Pierce.
0:06And I'm bringing all that up to say that, that where Pittman is leaving is where Pittman is leaving is the stuff
0:06that they already want to use downs for. And what Pittman, what Warren and Pierce were doing a lot in the offense
0:06last year is the stuff that they weren't really using Pittman for anyway.
0:06So my point is, is that with Pittman gone downs is the one who I think is going to get called upon a lot to do more.
0:06The potential fly in the ointment is what if Warren takes a big step and they want to use him a lot
0:06more because he's a year two player. I think that's a totally reasonable way to play the offense, but Pierce is going into year five.
0:06I think we know who he is. He's hurt right now.
0:06I don't think he's the guy who's going to have this big role change.
0:06I think it's going to be downs or Warren and probably both.
0:06Especially if they don't sign Keenan Allen. Anyway, that's, that's kind of my, my big rant on the Colt stuff.
0:06I think we see it very similarly, but yeah, I'm extremely optimistic about downs.
0:06The reporting on him about the two wide receiver set stuff goes like even deeper.
0:06Like Ben Solak was at Colts camp. He wrote stuff up about how they're going to use more two wide receiver sets
0:06with the wide receivers to the same side so they can play downs in 12, put them in the slot.
0:06They were talking about how they're going to use pre-snap motion to put downs in behind in a stack behind the other
0:06receiver to get them off breast coverage. Like that's the level of intentionality that is coming up in these reports.
0:06I just don't buy that those that like change cycle has been working on all these specific game planning things about how
0:06can I maximize Josh downs and play him more?
0:06And then they're going to be like, well, we decided to sign Keenan Allen at the 11th hour.
0:06So we're going to scrap all that. Like that doesn't make sense to me.
0:06There's such a level of intentionality about how they want to use downs.
0:06The team can't stop talking about how much more they want to use downs and fantasy managers I feel like have PTSD
0:06from believing in downs when he was in different situations with different players on the team and it not fully coming together.
0:06But I think he's an epic smash this year.
0:06Yeah, he's going to rise a ton after you just broke that down.
0:06Good job. He's wildly mispriced. I'm trying to figure out how high to rank him.
0:06That's not absurd because some people use the ranks and is similar to what you said.
0:06The mechanisms that we have to go through as content producers when we create ranks like you don't want to leave stale rankings on guys that are falling.
0:06I do that kind of stuff too. When I push guys up that I think are massively undervalued, I use a target.
0:06And fade mechanism. But I still often push guys at least a full tier above.
0:06But it's like, man, people use these ranks and then just draft strictly off them.
0:06I don't want them drafting him five rounds too early.
0:06But he literally might be five rounds mispriced. Watch downs as a reason to draft Brock Bowers because you could just get
0:06a top 24 wide receiver in the 10th. Yes.
0:06Agreed. The last thing I want to circle all the way back to was I mentioned the read thing as well.
0:06But if we get this is this is an extension of the read thing.
0:06I said the read two wide receiver set tweet was interesting.
0:06The fact that the reality with Josh Downs is it's like it's the betting favorite right now that Josh Downs is playing in almost two wide receiver sets.
0:06It seems very clear. They don't really have another receiver.
0:06We've been talking about this. I think we I don't know when I did the ETR pod.
0:06I don't know how much I talked about it with you on the different shows so far.
0:06Maybe we talked about on the wide receiver show.
0:06So when I did the ETR pod with India, it was like, yeah, I mean, this is when you go through the
0:06projection process like, yeah, this is what they have to do is what they're going to do.
0:06It's Shane Steichen's a smart coach. There's no there should be no shock whatsoever.
0:06Everything you just said that was new information to me, but that he's devising ways to use downs and two wide receiver sets.
0:06That is also very intentional about what his limitations are using stack the receivers on the same side stack them.
0:06I was saying yes, not because I hadn't heard that because I'd already thought that when I was going through the projection
0:06like there are answers for this and Steichen will find them.
0:06It's part of the things where I feel like fantasy analysts are very much like they get stuck on like very specific limitations.
0:06And then like shockingly, Shane Steichen is is smarter than, you know, those of us who are doing fantasy analysis.
0:06And it's like if you believe that Shane Steichen is a smart coach and I really do, then like he's going to
0:06figure out a way to get Josh Downs on the field and not Ashton Doolin.
0:06This is the exact kind of thing that, by the way, not to circle all the way back to the Gadsden thing,
0:06but like what you just said about fantasy analysis, this is the exact kind of thing I was trying to emphasize in the Gadsden thing.
0:06I could be wrong on the Gadsden thing, but I've been right on the Downs thing and it's a similar situation.
0:06And you have been too, obviously. But I've been saying this about the Downs thing for months now, and it is very clear.
0:06I think that within uncertainty, there was more upside than people were willing.
0:06And it's like a lack of imagination. I think I said with the Gadsden thing, it's what you just said as well.
0:06Fantasy analysts do this and they miss. And then what happens, dude, is every season we get into week one and we
0:06get hit with so much information about all 32 teams that no one actually debriefs this part of it.
0:06And the next year we do it all over again.
0:06And I've been saying this shit for eight, 10 years now.
0:06Like it's drives me a little bit nuts how many times we've had to relearn the same lesson that this is the way that this stuff works.
0:06But anyway, Jacoby Lane and Denzel Boston. I want to talk about those two.
0:06Lane, you mentioned Taka Camp. To me, that's a little bit more of it's the first two weeks.
0:06Rookies looking great are going to look great. I don't even necessarily think that it's a huge negative on Elijah Surratt.
0:06It certainly for me means that you should move Lane ahead of Surratt.
0:06He was drafted earlier. But Surratt's to me the little bit more interesting profile.
0:06And yet, yes, this is a positive for Lane.
0:06But people take this and run with it. Oh, he's the camp star.
0:06It's the first two weeks of camp. He's having a good early camp.
0:06There's still time to come. There still are things that can happen.
0:06He might pass Rashad Bateman. He might not. Next week might be a different story.
0:06And then people won't rehash or remember that last week they were getting way too excited about Jacoby Lane.
0:06The flip side of that one was the Denzel Boston one.
0:06I actually am really responding to this one probably because I'm a little bit biased.
0:06Every time I talk about it, I'm a Sammy UW fan, et cetera.
0:06I think Denzel Boston is really good at football.
0:06I've had a hard time being clear about that.
0:06I was pretty optimistic about a Dunze last year, particularly not so much or two years ago, not so much Polk and McMillan.
0:06But when you're a fan of a team and you watch every single snap and you watch all their stuff, it's a
0:06little tough because the projecting from college to pro stuff is tough regardless.
0:06There's guys that show a ton at the college level and they cannot translate that to the next level.
0:06And you never see that same sort of dominance of skill at the next level.
0:06And there's not really a clear reason why. And this is why the NFL struggles at this type of evaluation, et cetera.
0:06So I do sometimes have a tough time with the guys that I watch every snap of them and rooted for them and really like them.
0:06But Denzel Boston was a baller in college. And the fact that everyone's like, he looks like an absolute baller in Browns
0:06camp is not surprising to me as somebody who watched a ton of Denzel Boston.
0:06Guys, a stud, played with a mobile quarterback and still like, so some of the numbers that he didn't put up, I
0:06would, I would, I would be like, man, he was our most reliable player and a unique offense for a quarterback that
0:06held the ball a little bit, et cetera. Demond Williams.
0:06Anyway, Denzel Boston. He's also a guy that had the best excuse of maybe anyone ever for having a late breakout.
0:06Like he played behind literally three top three round picks for two years and like was never going to get on the field in a million years.
0:06And then when he did it, got to the field, he was immediately productive.
0:06So, and then the, the other part about it relative to lane, the, the, the rest of the contrast I wanted to
0:06draw was lane does have Surratt there. It's a, it's an offense where there's probably only room for like two really good receivers.
0:06We haven't seen Lamar Jackson offenses support several receivers because of the mobile QB thing.
0:06I was just sort of alluding to with Denzel Boston when he was in college.
0:06We're not going to have that quite. I mean, all reports on the Cleveland QBs are that this is like the worst
0:07QB battle that's ever existed, that they're horrible. You're in on shitter Sanders.
0:07You tweet about him. You love him, but he's, he's probably going to start week one, which is fine.
0:07But if Boston's hitting to this degree, you could do something worse than round 18.
0:07We just talked about Charlie Kilar for sure. If Boston is not, not for sure, but whatever.
0:07If Boston is hitting to this degree, there's a couple of things.
0:07There's, there's the draft capital element. He's around to pick there's he does have another rookie with him in Concepcion.
0:07Jacoby lane and Surratt were both later round picks, but Boston and Concepcion kind of played different roles.
0:07Lane and Surratt are both sort of outside receivers, a little overlap.
0:07Concepcion and, and Boston are going to play together long-term in, in like complimentary roles.
0:07They clearly view this as their long-term wide receiver one and wide receiver two.
0:07And they, I mean, I like Concepcion's profile more, but they don't probably care which one is the one and the, which one is the two.
0:07They probably want the both to be really good.
0:07And yeah, I'm not moving them ahead of Concepcion, but I am reading these really positive camp reviews.
0:07Like you said, that are coming from everywhere as what you described that we're going to get more Boston earlier.
0:07I don't, I'm probably not like throwing Judy completely out as you kind of were, but I'm, I mean, I'm certainly taking
0:07Boston ahead of Judy because I think you want the rookie upside.
0:07But Judy's going to run a lot of routes.
0:07I think too, I think it's going to be those three.
0:07And I think they're going to be super heavy 11 because they don't really have any other tight ends on this roster.
0:07Like the behind, um, behind fan. And I mean, one of the reasons why we haven't gotten into the run blocking wars
0:07with fan in this off season, it's like, there's literally no alternative.
0:07So they're like, no matter whether the team cares about his run blocking limitations or not, he's going to play every snap
0:07because I think that their tight end depth chart, like they drafted a guy to Cincinnati, Joe Royer in like the fifth.
0:07Um, I think they probably have like some veteran on the, I don't even, I couldn't even name another Titan on their depth chart.
0:07Did you remember it from your projections? No, I honestly don't.
0:07So, so like, I think they're going to be one of the highest, uh, Jack stole.
0:07They have our guy, Jack stole who used to be like a third tight end for the Eagles.
0:07So yeah, they're going to play, I think like white heart, like white heart.
0:07That sounds like a game of Thrones character. Um, him and Ronnie rivers would get up to some stuff for sure.
0:07But, uh, yeah, they, they got, they got nothing going on at tight end.
0:07So I think, and, uh, Cedric Tillman's been playing with like the second and third team.
0:07I think it's Zaya bond has been rotating in with the ones.
0:07I should mention him. He's probably going to get some, some snaps, but I think pretty quickly into the season, it's going to be pretty consolidated.
0:07I think on, uh, conception Boston, Judy and fan.
0:07Yeah. Yeah. Agreed. I think Boston's going to struggle to earn a ton of targets because, um, I do think conception is
0:07a better target earner and fan is a really strong target earner.
0:07And I don't think Judy is going to go away.
0:07I think all of this is very optimistic for me on Boston getting early playing time.
0:07I would just emphasize. And then I think he's going to be efficient.
0:07I think he's going to be a player, but I do think because he's going to be, you know, your X receiver
0:07lining him outside, having to take on some tough roles.
0:07It's going to be tough for him to be like, and he's not a guy like if you're, if you're the Browns,
0:07like I could see some weeks where they can't generate anything because their quarterback play is abominable, uh, and their offensive line can't really block.
0:07And I could see like game plans or Monkens like, okay, how do we just get like something like literally anything?
0:07And it's, it's, if you're going to do some like schemed up BS, the screens and gadgety stuff, that's, that's fan and in conception, he owns music.
0:07Um, that's not really a Denzel Boston calling card.
0:07So I think he'll be, he's, I think he's a player that will hopefully show some stuff this year and that we
0:07can be really in on in 2027 and maybe a more functional environment.
0:07I love that. So that is a short view.
0:07It took us two hours, Jacob. Now listen, listen, I'm going to make this point.
0:07We've named it the short view. We never said it was going to be short.
0:07The point of the short view was to get us, even though we like to get very deep into things, multiple layers deep.
0:07We went long on many of these topics was to get us to talk about a lot of different topics.
0:07There's a lot to talk about right now. We went through two hours of discussion there.
0:07We figured out how to play tight end in all sorts of leagues.
0:07We figured out a ton of interesting stuff. The most misvalued player in all of fantasy football, a ton of interesting stuff
0:07about a ton of happenings and talked about a ton of teams.
0:07That was the point of the short view. I loved those conversations.
0:07It was two hours, but that was a great two hours.
0:07That said, we still have to do a long view topic or it's not the long view.
0:07We're going to do a draft. We're going to do a draft.
0:07I don't think anyone's fast forwarding through the short view to get to the long view.
0:07We were talking about some good stuff there. I am not going to apologize to anyone.
0:07You can apologize if you want. No, I won't.
0:07This is part of why we did this show.
0:07It's part of why it's named the long view.
0:07It's like a bit of a joke at ourselves.
0:07Part of why we're doing the show this way is we're not doing search engine optimization.
0:07If we are doing a three-hour podcast, a three-and-a-half-hour podcast today, then you're getting a three-and-a-half-hour podcast today.
0:07I hope you enjoy it. Yeah. We're loving it.
0:07We're not going to feel insecure about it. The long view is up.
0:07We are going to draft things that we want to know today.
0:07If we could flip over the card week 17 and know one thing about one player's full season result, his targets, his
0:07rush attempts, his yards, receiving, passing, or rushing, did I say?
0:07Receiving, passing. Yeah, I wasn't even going to give you targets.
0:07I was going to say anything. Yeah, targets. We didn't say targets.
0:07You're right. No, it's anything that you get fantasy points for.
0:07If you're drafting a quarterback, you get their passing yards and their passing touchdowns, plus their rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.
0:07If you draft a running back, you get their rushing yards and their touchdowns and all their receiving stats.
0:07If you're drafting a receiver, you get their receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns.
0:07But you don't get their targets. You don't get their route shares.
0:07You don't get their pass attempts. You don't get any team level stuff like PROE or team points per game, any of that.
0:07But the idea here is it's the players who you think would have the biggest impact on how you draft this year.
0:07And you can interpret that however you want. So it can be really wanting to know something about a specific player.
0:07It could be maybe that specific player tells you a lot about the offense, or it would really inform how you play a particular positional group.
0:07It could be anything, however you want to interpret it.
0:07But it's whoever would be the, you think, the biggest, most valuable piece of information to know to help you draft fantasy football teams better in 2026.
0:07All right. You get first pick. Who's it going to be?
0:07Easy. Travis Hunter. Travis Hunter with the 101. He calls it easy.
0:07I think that's a reach. I don't even really have him on my list, to be honest with you.
0:07I'm going to pull this up in a way that we can show for the YouTube.
0:07We got to get Davis to make some Claude slop.
0:07I don't know the reference. Every time that we've come up with a gimmicky idea on Shipley chasing, this year, Davis will build some somewhat functional tool.
0:07You don't have Gretsch.com over there anymore, so you have the Davis Claude tool.
0:07I'm just going to do this in Excel. You can read that, right?
0:07All right. Jacob takes Travis Hunter with the 101.
0:07Explain it. Yeah. I mean, we were just talking about how impossible it is to figure out what's going on with Jacksonville.
0:07And so I think Hunter is the most important piece of the puzzle because if his stats are extremely muted...
0:07Then what do you know? I know that the other three guys are consolidating the passing game.
0:07And then I'm probably drafting a ton of Parker Washington.
0:07I'm pretty interested in Brian Thomas Jr. I think it's going to be one of the most interesting offenses in football.
0:07So I want to know the route distribution. If Hunter's stats are massive, that changes...
0:07I get four players of what I know what to do with knowing Travis Hunter's stuff.
0:07Because if he has big stats, then I want to draft Travis Hunter, especially in best ball.
0:07But then I also... I know that those routes are coming from somewhere else.
0:07And so Jacoby Myers could come off my board.
0:07Thomas probably comes off my board. Parker Washington, I'm moving down considerably.
0:07So I feel like I'm getting four players for one stone if I know the Hunter stats.
0:07I think if you get good Hunter stats, you're getting some information.
0:07I think if you get some pretty average Hunter stats, you kind of don't know when they came.
0:07You don't really know how much the other guys consolidated.
0:07You're saying you draft a lot of Parker Washington, but that could still be pretty wrong.
0:07I don't know if you're getting a ton of really actionable information.
0:07But, you know, that's your opinion, man. I'm going to go...
0:07Well, man, I have a long list. You get two.
0:07We can make this a snake draft. No, I don't want to do a snake draft.
0:07You want to do a snake? All right. Well, I mean, we could.
0:07I don't care. It seems... I'm going to go...
0:07Well, I mean... Let's just go back and forth.
0:07I don't want to give too much away. But I will say that I think...
0:07I'm not going to do it because it's boring.
0:07But I think there's the really obvious of like, oh, you know, CMC is like, you know, like, okay.
0:07Like, finding out whether CMC stayed healthy or not probably dictates a lot.
0:07But that's also true of like Puka. I actually don't think it dictates that much.
0:07Like, because yeah, like if I found out that one of those elite players like has terrible stats, well, then I know not to draft them.
0:07So that helps. But if I just find out that they have great stats, it's like, well, what does that do for me?
0:07I expect them to have great stats. CMC and Puka to me are guys that if they stay healthy, can project for like meaningfully more than anyone else.
0:07Like Puka has that targets per run profile. You think they have projected meaningfully more than Gibbs?
0:07Well, maybe not Gibbs, but you get CMC at such a discount.
0:07And I mean, yeah, that's been the deal with CMC for like several years.
0:07It's like you get, you take them at 107 and like you can easily project a healthy CMC season to be the overall player, like number one player.
0:07And you're getting able to pick seven. And Puka's like targets per run, like two of the last three years are like,
0:07excuse me, both of the last two years are two of the top three at a, you know, whatever the route minimum is in like the PFF era.
0:07Like his, so he could just consolidate so much volume in a, in a, in a fully healthy, like huge season.
0:07And so anyway, guys like that are, are really interesting.
0:07I'm going to go, I'm going to go to a top of another position, but I'm going to do Colston Loveland.
0:07All right. I think, I think you get a lot of information about the tight end position from Colston Loveland.
0:07I think he has some massive ceiling scenarios on my list.
0:07I think you get a lot of information about Luther burden immediately.
0:07I mean, not necessarily all the information, because if you get a really great Gloveland projection, I don't think it necessarily means
0:07burden can't have a good, a good season as well.
0:07But I think you get a lot of, um, I mean, Caleb Williams is, is a really interesting, uh, impact there.
0:07But if Loveland just has an average season, part of the reason I would do this is it would, it would dramatically
0:07change my, my, uh, interest in hammering Bowers and McBride before trying, because there's this whole discussion right now of like in,
0:07in, in leagues that are not tight on premium, you can make a decision to like pass on Bowers and McBride and
0:07get Loveland in like the third or the fourth.
0:07And it's like, how that's a pretty viable thing.
0:07If I can just go hit elites at running back and wide receiver, if I know that Loveland is going to do
0:07what I think he's capable of doing, then the, I think the optimal build is go non-tight end in the first two
0:07rounds and then come back with Loveland, right? Like that, that can be massive.
0:07If he's not putting up that season, then I, I probably want to be more aggressive on Bowers and McBride.
0:07So it gives you a lot of information. I think about the early rounds.
0:07Anyway, Colson Loveland's my pick. I like that pick.
0:07Uh, that was very high on my list. I had both Loveland and Burden high on my list and maybe I'll pick
0:07Burden later, but, um, I think that's a fascinating one.
0:07Um, this one, uh, maybe you'll say this is fancy play syndrome, but, um, I'm going to take Fernando Mendoza.
0:07We have very, very different, uh, approaches to this.
0:07I like that. So the reason for this does a reason for this pick is now there's a little bit of a risk.
0:07The risk is that like, if, if the stat line is like super low, then I guess what I find out is
0:07that they played Kirk cousins for a lot of the season.
0:07But I think that also tells me something. You don't even get pass attempts though.
0:07You don't even, you just get yards. Yeah. But anyway, so that's a little scary because if I get the Kirk, cause
0:07then if it's the Kirk cousins, I don't get that much information.
0:07Although I think that if it gives me the information that Kirk cousins played a lot, unless Mendoza comes in, it gets
0:07hurt and Kirk cousin goes back to cousins. I think that tells me they actually started pretty well because I think the
0:07better they start, uh, with Kirk cousins, the longer he plays.
0:07Of course, the reason why I picked Mendoza is that, um, Gentty and Bowers are probably going to be two of my most drafted players.
0:07And I thought about just picking Gentty or Bowers, um, which would have made a lot more sense, but I think it's more fun.
0:07I get, I get information on the offense. I'm going to, I'm going to sound like such an ass to a lot
0:07of the listeners, but I love, I want to be clear.
0:07This was Jacob's idea. So you can't tell me that he doesn't understand the rules.
0:07Like this was your idea. I definitely, if you get Mendoza's yards and touchdowns, you don't know how many games he played.
0:07This is like, I'm sure that this is a bad pick.
0:07This has to be a bad pick. What do you learn?
0:07If you just love me, it's completely unfalsifiable because we will never learn.
0:07We'll never know. You're hoping to get a really positive result that you're like, Oh, now I can be really in on
0:07Gentty and Bowers, but what if you get something in between?
0:07You're like, well, maybe he only played eight games and it's really good for eight games.
0:07I mean, that's possible that when I made this list, I didn't really think through the fact that we wouldn't get the, uh, the past attempts.
0:07Um, but I, uh, so fair enough. Fair enough.
0:07I'll stand by it regardless. Yeah. If you thought, I mean, I'll, I'll give you a, I'll give you a mulligan if you want.
0:07No, I'm sticking with it. I'm sticking with it.
0:07I mean, it costs me $0 draft with completely unavailable results.
0:07And I guess I may be using this to like prove a wider point than I am to be like hyper specific on the format of the rules.
0:07But I think I'm, my point is, is that I want, I really, really wish that I knew whether the Raiders would be competent this year.
0:07That's great. Yeah. If they are a league average offense this year, um, which I get that there's some limitations to exactly
0:07how much we could derive that from Fernando Mendoza's line.
0:07But if we knew that they were a league average offense this year, then I think Gentie becomes a massive smash.
0:07I think Bowers becomes an absolute must draft. Um, and I think it's also the case that like, I don't even think
0:07they can be a league average offense if those guys aren't.
0:07So it's like, I need to know that there's the environment for them to be that.
0:07But then also like, if you were to tell me, oh, the Raiders are going to be actually better than a lot of people think this year.
0:07I'm pretty confident that Gentie Bowers don't even get hurt because I don't know how they get to be a particularly good
0:07offense this year if those guys aren't a big part of it.
0:07So, um, I think that that's one of the most, one of the most interesting teams where you have a team that
0:07a lot of people think is going to be terrible, but still has two top two round picks that I really want to invest in.
0:07I like the logic there. What I will give you props on is I think quarterback is definitely a way to play this in, in a meaningful way.
0:07Cause you get a good feel for the whole offense.
0:07Obviously. Um, I think the quarterback, so two things I'll say, I didn't love the hunter pick because I think one of
0:07the things, like what I did with Loveland is I think the bears are going to be a really consolidated offense.
0:07If I, I would really love to know one of the key pieces in a consolidated offense because of what it tells
0:07me about the other pieces, um, in that consolidated offense with hunter.
0:07You don't really know if it means Brian Thomas or Parker Washington or whatever.
0:07I kind of gave that, that take. Yeah. Patrick Mahomes to me is really interesting.
0:07This is a team that has been first or second and pass straight over expected every year of his career.
0:07Um, he's coming off an ACL. There's a concern that he runs more.
0:07If his numbers are pretty low, it could, I don't know that it tells you a whole lot about Kenneth, uh, uh,
0:07Walker, because I think you have the concern that they're just bad or, um, the possibility that they're very run heavy and Walker had a great season.
0:07I think both those things could mean that, you know, if my homes had a little bit worse, worse numbers, but if
0:07you give me a little bit of worse numbers on my homes, I know that I can stay away from her.
0:07She writes a little bit better. I can stay away from Xavier worthy a little bit better.
0:07Oh, before we left the short view, I was actually going to ask you about Cyrus Allen.
0:07And one of the reasons I was going to ask you about that is that's another place where some buzz has cropped
0:07up that I think is really pretty relevant. And I think it's pretty relevant because the chiefs often podcast ago, I said,
0:07I thought he was a little interesting. And I, I probably said, I didn't think he was, but I, when I went
0:07through the projection process, this is one of those teams where I was like, this has to be a consolidated team.
0:08I've mentioned the take that Taequann Thornton only had 19 receptions last year.
0:08I gave a little bit of an optimistic Jalen Royals take.
0:08I think when I did the projection pods with the ETE crew, because you're like, there's got to be something else here.
0:08Rashid Rice and Xavier worthy are not dependable. People don't want to take them as high as their profiles probably argue.
0:08They should go because of mostly dependability issues, or they think they suck.
0:08Well, if they suck, then where are the passing numbers going here?
0:08The Travis, uh, Travis Kelsey is also going meaningfully lower.
0:08So part of the homes thing, I think it works both ways.
0:08If he has really high numbers, I think you want to be in on the Casey offense.
0:08I think you have to realize that somebody between rice worthy Kelsey or like Cyrus Allen is going to be a smash.
0:08If my homes actually throws well, I think they're, they're collective, um, ADPs are too low for what my homes probably will be even coming off an ACL.
0:08Even if that pro is not first or second in the league.
0:08My point there is like, it's probably still going to finish top half.
0:08Like, even if they come down and they're run heavier, they're not going to be the Eagles.
0:08They're not going to run like more than anyone in the league, right?
0:08Like that's not where this offense were. It's not what Andy Reed's done since he had Donovan McNabb in Philly.
0:08He was throwing a bunch, you know, to Brian Westbrook out of the backfield.
0:08He's using his backs as receivers. Like he's been using a pass forward offense for 30 years, like 20 years, whatever, however long he's been coaching.
0:08It's been forever. I, and you have Patrick Mahomes.
0:08I know he's coming off an ACL, but I don't think that we're going to get no pass rate out of him.
0:08So I, I think getting the Casey past stuff right is really important, but it's also a consolidated one where if I
0:08get a really positive my homes thing, I have different price points.
0:08I can, I can, I can know to attack rice here.
0:08I can know to attack, uh, Xavier worthy later.
0:08I can know to attack, uh, Cyrus Allen in the late rounds.
0:08Uh, if I get a really poor projection for my homes, I do think it works that way too, because I think
0:08there's a lot of value with Casey, but like, if I got that information, it would help me get off of it
0:08a little bit because both rice and worthy are risky.
0:08And I do see the risk and I don't want to be all in on them necessarily.
0:08So like, if I, if I could find out that my homes had a really bad season, it would get me off
0:08of what I think are probably two pretty good pure values that the market is scared of.
0:08I could, I could be like, all right, I'm scared of him too.
0:08You know? So anyway, that's my pick. All right.
0:08I liked that pick. Uh, he was on my list as well.
0:08Um, I'm like, I've been doing good ones off your list.
0:08I got, I got, I got good stuff on my sheet right there.
0:08Uh, like I've been doing some off the wall picks.
0:08I think this is going to be a less, uh, controversial pick.
0:08Um, I'm pretty sure anyway, I'll take Malik neighbors, um, which is on my list.
0:08You know, like, uh, I mean, I feel like our job as fantasy analysts is to try and be right more often
0:08than not about a lot of things. One of the things I feel the most helpless about is predicting injuries.
0:08Like I have no special area of expertise on this.
0:08So it's really hard for me to have like a very firm take about Malik neighbors because I, I can like give
0:08you all the takes the world about why I think he's one of the best receivers on earth.
0:08Um, and then it's like, well, how healthy is he going to be?
0:08And I don't really know. And it's a matter of like pricing that uncertainty in which, which is obviously part of our job.
0:08But in terms of taking one of these completely like known unknowns off the table, um, knowing if Malik neighbors is going
0:08to be a massive impact this season, uh, would, would do a lot for me.
0:08Cause if I get a huge return, then I just don't have to worry about the second round this year.
0:08He just, I pick every single time. I think that's a fantastic one.
0:08It was going to be one of my early ones.
0:08I'm going to go Kyler Murray. That was my next pick.
0:08Similar to similar to the Mahomes take. You get a lot of information about the offense and Kyler himself obviously is, is really discounted.
0:08If he has big numbers, you know, to take him, but it tells you a lot about Justin Jefferson.
0:08It tells you a lot about Jordan Addison. And they can even tells you about TJ Hawkinson late.
0:08Um, I'm not quite so certain that Juwan Jennings is like super fantasy viable.
0:08Cause last year looked more like his pre 2024 numbers, which was not very fantasy viable from a per route basis.
0:082024 was that big spike season for him, but now he's in an offense where he's like buried as the wide receiver
0:08three behind two really good wide receivers. And part of the reason you bring him in and they brought him in late
0:08and they paid him a limited amount of money.
0:08Part of the reason you bring him in is he's a really good blocker.
0:08He makes a lot of sense as the third receiver in that three receiver set.
0:08He'll do the dirty work. I don't think he's going to have a massive receiving role.
0:08And so that also just means that I think this is going to be a concentrated passing game with Jefferson Addison.
0:08And then I think there's some maybe potential for Hawkinson to still rebound at this point, a couple of years removed from the ACL.
0:08But if I got really good news on Murray, those are the bets that I would be making.
0:08And I think you can make on, on Minnesota.
0:08If I got bad news on Murray, then that means either like he's, he's terrible.
0:08Or like, if the numbers are really low, he got hurt or he got benched.
0:08If he gets benched for JJ McCarthy, I want to be out how McCarthy stats are because you know, they're not going to be good.
0:08That's exactly right. I want to be out on Justin Jefferson.
0:08I want to be out on Jordan Addison. I want to be out on this whole offense.
0:08And yeah, Kyler Murray. Yeah. That one was one where I was, I was torn between Kyler and neighbors.
0:08Now I really wish I picked them with one of my first two picks.
0:08Then I could have got both. But, but with, with Kyler, I, I went through the process of being like, oh, I'm going to pick Kyler.
0:08And then I was like, wait, but what if I don't know whether his low stats mean he was bad or he got benched?
0:08And then I thought about it for one more second.
0:08I was like, well, if he gets benched, it doesn't fucking matter because his whole offense is toast.
0:08If he's bad, he, Kyler. Kyler arguably should have been, I didn't rank mine.
0:08I just put a bunch in a list. Now that we're talking about it, Kyler is arguably the one-on-one in this.
0:08Like this would be a, he would be a, give us, because Kevin O'Connell is still a really good play designer.
0:08He got a great offense out of Sam Donald a couple of years ago.
0:08I still think like there's been a lot of fun on, on the Vikings.
0:08They are cheap. There is the opportunity for this to still be, I think a good offense.
0:08Even if Kyler does have limitations, we all kind of know he does.
0:08It still could be a good offense. They were nine and eight with JJ McCarthy last year.
0:08And like Max Brosmer. Like this is still a team that over the last, over the Kevin O'Connell era has overperformed.
0:08That is the story of the Vikings. They were 14 and three, the one year, and they were clear aggression candidates.
0:08They were nine and eight last year with like just no offensive line and horrendous QB play.
0:08Like how do you go? And like Justin Jefferson wants to quit football.
0:08It's so bad. And you go nine and eight with that.
0:08Like I know the defense was incredible, but I'm just saying like this team has tended to overperform.
0:08The offense wasn't really the overperforming side last year, but the story of these last few years for the Vikings has been
0:08like half decent play out of McCarthy in the end of the year where like, well, I shouldn't say half decent play out of McCarthy.
0:08They got like half decent results at times, despite their quarterback, like over the latter half of the season where like, they
0:08were like finding ways to be like, Oh, like there goes Josh Oliver sprinting open down the sideline, like somehow, or like
0:08they, they couldn't get the ball at all to the good players.
0:08But like Kevin O'Connell was, he was emptying the bag on that.
0:08Um, all right. I'm sensing a run on quarterback here.
0:08I didn't want to be boring. That's why I went neighbors, but, uh, I'm going to, I'm going to take, uh, I'm going to take Daniel Jones.
0:08Um, so he is, uh, yeah, I mean, was fantastic last year.
0:08Coming off of the Achilles. Um, and I think like it's a team with four very fantasy viable players.
0:08I think it's going to be very consolidated on those players.
0:08And if Daniel Jones, um, is playing at the level he was playing last year, like part of the reason I'm, I
0:08really want, um, Jones here is that I have a high degree of confidence in how I'm reading this passing game.
0:08So I would love to know if that matters, right?
0:08Like if, if Daniel Jones just looks terrible off the Achilles, um, or there's not able to recapture the magic, then I
0:08probably don't need to worry that much as about like figuring out the Josh downs, the Tyler Warren and the Alec Pierce.
0:08I certainly have no need to take Jonathan Taylor in the first round.
0:08Um, so I think it's a spot where I would love to know if this offense is going to cook like it cooked last year.
0:08I think you're going to get a pretty decent chunk of information on whether that's the case based on Daniel Jones's numbers.
0:08And then if that's, if I get positive feedback, um, I'm, I'm at least open to Taylor.
0:08I'm taking Josh downs and literally every single draft.
0:08I'm probably taking Tyler Warren a lot too. That's the first one that's not on my list that I think was a really great pick.
0:08So I'll just, I got to give you your props.
0:08That's, that's a really good use of the QB.
0:08He was great in the first, uh, well, neighbors was on my list, but I, and I already gave you crap for Hunter Mendoza.
0:08You've only made three other picks, so it's not like, but, um, Jones was a good one.
0:08I think because he was, I don't think people realize that the Colts going into their by, uh, after the first 10
0:08games, best offense in the league, best offense in the NFL for every team's first 10 games of the year, the Colts had the most totally hearts.
0:08And then they had two more games. And then Daniel Jones tours Achilles.
0:08They were bad games and people were like, yeah, they're regressing.
0:08Their schedule is getting harder, but like it was two games.
0:08You know, they had a couple of down games against tougher D's.
0:08Yes. They played Houston with one of those fibula Jones was yeah.
0:08His last four games, he played with a fractured fibula before he tore his Achilles prior to the Achilles.
0:08I don't remember that. That's yeah. And he was, yeah, like he was like limping around.
0:08Like, I don't remember the chiefs game, but like he could barely move.
0:08He had, it was the, during the Steelers game, he picked up a fracture in his fibula and then he played three
0:08more games, like virtually unable to move. And then he tore his Achilles.
0:08Yeah. Which like, I think partially the Achilles was in part, I think a compensation injury for playing on a broken leg.
0:08But anyways, one of the reasons why I think their efficiency went down is that he was playing on a broken leg for a month.
0:08Totally. That makes perfect sense. I love it. I love it because I like the consolidation of the volume in that past game.
0:08And I like, I feel confident about the way I want to play it, which is downs and Warren more so than peers and Taylor.
0:08You'd get a lot of information about Taylor. If you knew that Daniel Jones played a full healthy season, he would be a great first round pick.
0:08I don't think people realize that Taylor ran the third, third most routes at running back last year, first season over 300 routes.
0:08He went over 400 routes. It was a whole new element to his game last year and his receiving.
0:08It wasn't just like his receiving got bolstered by the Phillip Rivers stuff late because we know Phillip Rivers is a check down guy.
0:08His receiving per game better with Daniel Jones, not including the Jones injury game.
0:08He got hurt in the first quarter better per game with Daniel Jones through the healthy games than it was in the,
0:08you know, starting from the injury game and on in the Phillip Rivers games.
0:08Cause that injury game was mostly played by Riley Leonard.
0:08And I think, I think Taylor had the reason I'm emphasizing that is Taylor had zero catches in that game.
0:08They, right. Like Daniel Jones got hurt in the first quarter and then they like, they went run heavy and they didn't really throw.
0:08And anyway, um, Taylor's receiving, he's more of a dual threat than I think people realize.
0:08Like I saw somebody tweet the other day about some of that optimism about Pete Carmichael and James Cook and the receiving upside for the bills.
0:08I'm not super into that, but they were like, I I've got James Cook's receiving so much higher than I'm putting him over Jonathan Taylor.
0:08And I was like, well, like, what about Jonathan Taylor's receiving?
0:08Cause it's already there. It was there last year and they had Amir Abdullah as the second receiver, uh, or like running
0:08back, like a legit veteran receiving down back. They don't have him anymore.
0:08They're just, they don't have young guys. I mean, they frankly have almost nobody.
0:08I mean, it's like nobody. Jonathan Taylor, for as long as he stays healthy, he's going to lead the, uh, running back
0:08position in snap rate, like him or McCaffrey, but he's going to play a ton.
0:08Taylor's going to play like 93% of snaps in neutral.
0:08The one thing he doesn't have is a great per route receiving role.
0:08He's not going to get a ton of targets.
0:08He's not going to do it. Like, like, they don't, they don't run like angle routes and stuff with him for HM,
0:08but like they will throw screens to him and he will get enough check downs just by virtue of running 25 routes a game.
0:08And again, he never had over 300 routes in a season per PFFs routes data and was over 400 last year.
0:08It was a massive increase that Jacob's telling you with the snaps number, it's going to be there again this year.
0:08He's a really intriguing first round running back that to me is more with the guys at the very top of the position.
0:08I have him in the same tier as Bijon.
0:08I have him in the same tier as Christian McCaffrey.
0:08And then it's those three. And then it's a gap behind them.
0:08So anyway, you'd get a lot of information from this Daniel Jones pick.
0:08I really like it. I'm going to go, cause I'm not just going to take quarterbacks all day.
0:08I'm going to go Omari and Hampton. It's a little bit off the wall.
0:08You do have him on your list. Okay. I really liked the Hampton ceiling scenarios and they're tough that he didn't come out great in my pro projections.
0:08Cause I'm also really high on Keaton Mitchell, but a lot of the stuff we talked about Gadsden and a lot of
0:08the pushback there was, I have been trying to figure out how this offense is going to look.
0:08I do completely agree with you. And part of the way you detailed that the tight ends might just not do much
0:08that it would be very running back heavy and wide receiver heavy.
0:08I think the running backs are going to be very, very involved.
0:08Um, the, the, the, the big stat for Mike McDaniel is that like the last four years all in, in Miami, even
0:08before a Chan was really the main guy dating back to like the re Mostert stuff.
0:08He had X number of, I don't have the number of targets in front of me, but X number of targets, uh, to the running back position.
0:08I don't really do a lot with coaching trends like that, but so much of what McDaniel does is scheme to the
0:08players that he wants the ball to get to.
0:08And he really wanted to get Keaton Mitchell. And obviously you have Omarion Hampton.
0:08That's a superstar. So a big part of the Omarion Hampton play is also Keaton Mitchell.
0:08I'm getting a two for one here. If Hampton doesn't have a great year, I'm all in on, on Keaton Mitchell at that point.
0:08I'm already kind of all in on Keaton Mitchell.
0:08People have, you know, obviously heard that I keep getting tagged every time he does anything in camp, which is quite fun.
0:08Um, but the, the argument would be. Cause you know, McDaniel put up wanted posters for Keaton and all that.
0:08The argument would be, did you know the player he put up a wanted poster for?
0:08Yeah. Alec Ingold. He's going to use that guy too.
0:08It's guys that he has a clear plan for how to use.
0:08He was gonna, he was gonna need a fullback and he, he wanted Alec Ingold, uh, as well.
0:08But, um, I, uh, oh man. Where's the stat?
0:08I got it here somewhere. I'm trying to find the, the running back targets snap, but I'm, I'm struggling to.
0:08Well, I don't, I don't have the running back target stat, but I can give you what is a bit of a
0:08proxy for that, which is they were first, second and fifth in backfield expected fantasy points the last three seasons.
0:08That's great. Yeah. That's a, that's a great proxy for sure.
0:08Um, I did find it at least 114 targets, three straight years there.
0:08Uh, again, some of that's a chance skill set.
0:08I wrote a whole piece about how Keaton Mitchell is similar to that.
0:08I think the other, the, the, the downside for Keaton Mitchell, the concern I have, and the reason I'm not taking Keaton
0:08Mitchell on every single draft is, you know, he has a smaller back and all that.
0:08And Omari and Hampton's a legit, really good profile.
0:08People are concerned about come on. If a doll cutting in Hampton was much better, uh, as far as the peripherals in the same offense last year.
0:08And a lot of the per touch stuff, my, um, pretty strong belief is one of Hampton or Keaton Mitchell is going
0:08to be a really big hit this year. Hampton obviously like goes really high, but he's relatively cheap.
0:08I think he's either going to be a smash at that cost, which is why I'm picking him here to find out
0:08if he is, or if he's not, then I think Keaton Mitchell is going to be a smash.
0:08I think their collective costs is low for what I think the overall running back, uh, production for this backfield would be.
0:08So I get, I get to find that out.
0:08There's a really key one for me. Yeah. I think that is, that's fair.
0:08He was the second highest player on my, my running list here.
0:08Um, I just, I literally just wrote up on Mary Hampton this morning.
0:08I'm doing like this home league redraft guide. It's going to be like, it's going to be even longer than this fricking
0:08podcast, but, um, but, uh, but I just wrote up Hampton.
0:08I said, I thought he was one of the most important players to get right.
0:08I thought he was a, a pretty big boom bust profile.
0:08Um, but a guy that I, I have ranked higher in my home league redraft rankings that I do in like best
0:08ball where I'm a little bit more floor focused.
0:09I think he has massive, massive upside. I'd totally be a league winner, um, coming in that range.
0:09And, um, I'm going to stick with second year running backs.
0:09You stole Hampton from me. I will take Trevion Henderson.
0:09Yeah. He was the very first person I wrote down when I thought of this concept.
0:09I didn't think he was like a first round pick, but he's a good one.
0:09Go ahead. Yeah. I mean, part of this is just that, uh, I mean, there you could, you could use this for
0:09honestly a few guys in this range, but I think get it.
0:09We talked about the running back dead zone on our second show.
0:09I think I would love to know if there's going to be a huge hit from the running back dead zone this year and who it is.
0:09I don't feel like I need to know that much information on like the Andre Swift and David Montgomery.
0:09Like, I feel like I know what they're going to be, but like, um, it's Henderson and maybe another couple of guys
0:09that maybe I'll get to, um, if, if I knew that one of these guys was going to be a massive hit,
0:09um, that would, would definitely impact how I build my draft plan.
0:09It would make me more interested in drafting a Brock Bowers in round two, a Malik neighbors in round two at the
0:09expense of, um, you know, trying to start running back, running back, be more open to wide receiver in round one.
0:09Um, it would just, it would open up a lot of things structurally for me.
0:09If I knew there was like a massive hit Trevion Henderson season waiting for me in round five.
0:09Um, and then also if, if Henderson's numbers were like terrible, um, then Ramond Ray Stevenson becomes, you know, a pretty interesting
0:09play because it's probably going to be one of those two.
0:09Um, and you know, if they're middling, then, then I guess, whatever, obviously for all these picks, you want something to be
0:09at the extremes to give you the most information possible.
0:09But, um, so you do get a bit of the two for one element.
0:09I think you get a structural element and it's a situation that I think is, is challenging for me to evaluate.
0:09So I would really value the, the information because I think Henderson's pretty darn good.
0:09I don't know for sure how the coaching staff is going to play it.
0:09And that I would love to get that info.
0:09Oh, you're on mute, Ben. Whoops. Love that. Love the Ramond Ray info as well.
0:09Um, agree with you about the, the dead zone impact.
0:09The, he was the first name I met. I wrote, as I mentioned, the second name was another, another guy that I'm
0:09not going to take, but similar, uh, concept. Uh, I'm right now I'm going to take Jamison Williams.
0:09I think Jamison Williams is potentially one of the most interesting players, uh, in fantasy this year.
0:09We talked about him, I think on the last pod, you are not quite as high.
0:09I, I was just looking at some stuff, uh, from my stealing signals spreadsheet that I have.
0:09It's a weekly basis and it's got, you know, all the weekly numbers and for, in terms of average route share at
0:09wide receiver, for whatever reason, I was on that, um, as I was kind of preparing some stuff for the season, Jamison
0:09Williams had the second highest average route share. It was like 97% or whatever.
0:09I think behind only Jamar chase last year, all the other guys that high, like the upper nineties are the superstars.
0:09I don't think again, people are weighing enough that he went from like 475 routes in his third year, which was really
0:09his first year as a full-time player, uh, which was 2024 all the way up to 600 plus routes last year.
0:09And that they basically don't have anything really behind him.
0:09I don't think Isaac Tesla is like that meaningful.
0:09Um, and then you have, you know, the Laporta impact and some other things.
0:09If he had a really bad year, I would be in on Laporta.
0:09I'd be that much more in on Gibbs. Gibbs is one that I would consider for this exercise.
0:09The problem with Gibbs relative to me mentioning CMC earlier, well, the problem with Gibbs is that the information is actionable.
0:09Uh, one out of 12 times. One out of 12 times.
0:09Exactly. And if he has a massive year, you're maybe a little bit off the other lions.
0:09The lines are another very concentrated offense. If Jamison Williams has a really bad year, I'm that much more in on Gibbs as the clear one-on-one.
0:09I'm that much more in on Almond Ross St.
0:09Brown. I'm that much more in on Laporta. Cause I really do think it's going to be those four guys for a lot of it.
0:09But I think Jamison's the big, big winner here.
0:09I would, he, to be honest with you, he would be probably higher on my list if it wasn't for like the
0:09little quirks of like the QB stuff with like Kyler Murray and my homes and stuff.
0:09What Williams to me is like for the, for the, for the, the spirit of this idea, which is like what you
0:09were doing when you took Hunter and stuff. It's like, who are the players that we just want to know and it
0:09would just like help us for our like presence of mind a little bit.
0:09Jamison Williams is that guy. I really see it for him as this could be the career season that he had.
0:09I don't, I think people are misunderstanding how volatile his first few years were.
0:09The fact that we've had a quiet off season, we've had a couple quiet years where there hasn't been bad vibes.
0:09Like there was with the suspension stuff and the, the like internal stuff and, um, like moping on the sidelines really in his career a little bit.
0:09And there was stuff where like Dan Campbell was getting asked about his body language all the time.
0:09And we would talk about a couple of years ago, talk about Jamison Williams vibes being the worst that anyone could ever remember.
0:09This guy has completely turned his career around. He had the second highest route share of any receiver in the NFL last year.
0:09He is now a reliable part of a really good offense.
0:09He's a good blocker. They compliment him on all that stuff.
0:09The big issue with last year was the first half of the year.
0:09He was kind of forgotten about Laporta had a really big first half second half of the year.
0:09Great post by. And when Laporta was out, he paced for over 1400 yards, including one of his goose egg games where
0:09he had zero catches throw that in there. He still was pacing for 1400 yards.
0:09And there's only a few receivers that have 1400 yard seasons anymore.
0:09I mean, that's an elite, elite season. This is my like George Pickens of this year.
0:09I was really in on Pickens last year. I was like, people don't realize how the profile in Pittsburgh is going to
0:09translate to the situation in Dallas and all these things are going to come together.
0:09And this is the career season like as a fifth round pick wide receiver.
0:09I've been saying that about Jamison. I saw that with Pickens in the projections.
0:09And I was like, this is clear to me.
0:09I was massively with you on Pickens. I'm not on the Jamison one, but I massively.
0:09Yeah, I could be wrong. When I say that, it's not like, oh, I'm always wrong on these things, but I'm getting
0:09that same feeling that I got with Pickens where it's like, when I went through the projections, what I'm seeing over the
0:09years and how this has progressed, this is the year where if you're fading Williams, what I would say to somebody like,
0:09I don't think you're completely fading him, but to somebody who's really out on him, if he runs 600 routes again, you
0:09better be really confident that that targets per route is going to stay really low because he's so efficient per target.
0:09He's great ball in hand. He's not just a deep threat like some of these other guys that I've been out on,
0:09like Christian Watson, Alec Pierce and stuff. Williams does so much more ball in hand, yak per reception and all that.
0:09And his ADOT's lower. And it has been the last two years.
0:09They've been using him more creatively if, if they, uh, if he runs that many routes, which I expect he will, I, there's no like clear third receiver.
0:09Um, in fact, you Isaac Tesla is being passed by Greg Dorch.
0:09Apparently that's hilarious. The, the targets per route was a career low last year.
0:09The routes went way up to 600. The targets per route was a career low.
0:09You, you better, and it was better in the second half when LaPorta was out.
0:09You better be really confident. It's going to stay down at like 16%.
0:09Cause if that targets per route is even like 18, 19%.
0:09Jamison Williams is going to be smashed, dude. If it's at 20, 21%, he's, he's a top five wide.
0:09Like he, I think he could threaten Almond Ross production is like part of like what I can see from the season.
0:09Cause he's so much more efficient. Almond Ross is going to get way more volume, but like he's like yardage wise.
0:09They could, I think he'd be being like Pickens lamb last year.
0:09Yes. Yeah. And I think they could be similar in yardage, even with Jamison being a lot lower receptions and, and, and
0:09the Almond Ross would still have a good season in this scenario, but yes, it would be a lot like Pickens land.
0:09That's a great, uh, a great, obviously to continue the Pickens, uh, corollary, but yeah, I, and then, and then to the,
0:09to the point of this game, if we find out that Jamison Williams had 700 yards, I'm like, dude, I'm smashing the other lines.
0:09Cause it's a concentrated offense. Yep. I think that's a great pick.
0:09And I, you've been selling me a bit on Jamison.
0:09He's also goes, um, it's so interesting because I actually think a lot of these price differences are like actually like very wrong.
0:09Um, but he, um, anyway, he goes a lot cheaper in a redraft than he does in best ball.
0:09So as I turn my focus from best ball to redraft, uh, I'm getting a lot more interested in Jamison Williams.
0:09Like I haven't, I haven't ranked solidly above, um, market in my FFPC rankings.
0:09I expect he'll be the same in my home league rankings.
0:09And, and, uh, you've gotten me much, much more excited about the upside scenario with him for sure.
0:09Um, I think that's a great pick. Um, I will pick, I mean, I'm just going to, I'm going to do the
0:09exact same thing that I just did with Trevion.
0:09So it's kind of lame, but I don't care.
0:09Um, I'll take my dude. Yeah, he's the other one.
0:09I already started typing it before I even said it.
0:09So you knew exactly where I was going with that.
0:09He's, he was the other one that I wrote as the, the second guy, but yes.
0:09He's a great one. Yeah. I mean, you get the Chris Rodriguez.
0:09I thought you were going to chat about it, but you get the Chris Rodriguez info.
0:09You get the Jacksonville offense info. If he has a big year, you know, the offense was good.
0:09I think you can ascertain some interesting stuff about their wide receivers from that.
0:09If he has a bad year, I mean, Chris Rodriguez is a smash.
0:09If, if he has a good year, you're doing so much about the dead zone.
0:09And I mean, Liam Cohen, Liam Cohen backfield is so valuable.
0:09Like I just love the way this guy uses running backs.
0:09I think you're, I agree. This is like, I think there's going to be probably a winner here.
0:09Um, especially because the price discrepancy is so, the price discrepancy is so vast that if Tootin was like terrible, um, even
0:09if C-Rod's like true ceiling is not nearly as high as Tootin's, I think he could still be a massive hit at cost where he's currently going.
0:09Um, and yeah, Tootin, I think has the upside of being one of the defining players this year.
0:09So I'll, I'll take him. You're back up. I'm going to Jordan Tyson.
0:09Good one. We got the hamstring issue. We got a fun offense in, uh, new Orleans.
0:09Um, we know that they're going to be a little bit uptempo that Tyler shocks good enough to support some weapons.
0:09Uh, we just talked about the dearth of late round tight end options.
0:09I think you, if you find out that Jordan Tyson has a really bad rookie year, I think you have to be pretty in on Juwan Johnson.
0:09Totally. Um, the Chris Alave information, obviously I've been pretty out on Alave because of Tyson.
0:09And I think Tyson could potentially even be close to overtaking him towards the back end of the year, which is a problem for how high Alave goes.
0:09Um, I like Tyson at his cost. And if I find out that he had even like 800 yards, if that's back
0:09weighted, then I'll be, I'll be happy. Uh, if I find out that he had like 400 yards, then I'm, I'm probably
0:09willing to take Alave and I'm smashing Juwan, I think.
0:09Um, but yeah, I mean, there's a possibility that it's like 1200 yards.
0:09I mean, that's, he's a top 10 overall pick.
0:09Like there's, you could have a monster rookie year.
0:09There's a possibility. He's like the key to the season, right?
0:09That's why we draft rookie receivers. All right. I got a couple of games on my list that are like higher than
0:09the guy I'm about to take, but, um, a couple of them are similar to guys I've already taken.
0:09A couple of them are similar to guys you've already taken.
0:09So I gotta go somewhere a little bit different and have some fun.
0:09I can guarantee you this guy's not on your list.
0:09I'll take Malik Willis. Okay. Um, and I think he's, I like it for, I think he's interesting for a couple of reasons.
0:09Um, I'm bearish on the Malik Willis experience. Um, but like I'm open-minded.
0:09I mean, the whole point about Malik Willis is we barely see them do anything.
0:09So I think, I think it would be tough to have.
0:09Bearish, bearish, but open-minded confidence. Yeah. I'm bearish, but open-minded.
0:09I don't know if you want that on a dating profile.
0:09Well, I'm not looking to date Malik Willis, so it's probably going to be okay.
0:09Um, I think the biggest impact for me, it would be twofold.
0:09I mean, one, if the stats are great, then I don't need to worry about early quarterback this year because the ceiling
0:09on him would be so high if you get the rushing volume that you get that, and he's available in every single draft.
0:09So if you just get like an awesome result on Malik Willis, my quarterback plan is solved for 2026.
0:09Um, and if you get a pretty, like way more optimistic than I'm projecting passing result, then Devon Achan goes from a
0:09guy who I'm currently fading to a guy that I'm looking to jam.
0:09Um, because I do think he's one of the most talented players in the NFL.
0:09And I think he is, is like, would be an absolute smash given the lack of targets around him.
0:09But for my complete lack of confidence in Malik Willis to lead a reasonable volume passing offense and reasonable play volume offense.
0:09So I think I get a lot of information about how to play quarterback this year.
0:09If in the unlikely event, it's super positive. And I either get information that kind of confirms my desire to fade probably
0:09one of my four or five favorite players in like the history of the NFL, um, or to, uh, actually go ahead and target Devon Achan.
0:09And also if the stats are really good, then I feel like I want to take like a lot of late darts on.
0:09I mean, I wouldn't know who it's going to be, but like, what, what if I get the result of like, Oh,
0:09he threw for 3,700 yards this year. Like I'm taking Greg Dulcich in every draft and I'm probably at least taking some random darts on like their ridiculous.
0:09Yeah. Probably the rookie receivers. I think that's a great one.
0:09Cause if you did find out some stuff about the past volume, I'm, I'm also open.
0:09I'm also bearish and open-minded on Malik Willis. Um, if you got really great rushing numbers, you'd know you could take him.
0:09I think that's a great one. I think it's a great one.
0:09Cause you learn a lot about the offense and an offense that's really underpriced.
0:09I'm not taking a chance. I'm not playing this offense really at all, but you could talk me into playing it.
0:09If I knew Malik Willis had some good stats.
0:09So I do, uh, really like that one as well.
0:09I'm looking at. You're getting back on my wavelength after those first two picks.
0:09Those, those threw you off, but we're, Oh no.
0:09Every pick you've made since then has been a great pick.
0:09They've either been on my list or the two quarterbacks were not, but they were good QBs.
0:09The, I mean, the first two were just objectively bad picks.
0:09That's, that's your bad. You, you galbrained this game way too early in the first and second round.
0:09No, um, I'm going to go, I'm going to go Makai Lemon for the same, like a very similar reason to Jordan Tyson.
0:09Yeah. Uh, I think lemon's an incredibly good prospect.
0:09I think we would learn, uh, a lot about Devonta Smith who I'm currently fading and I'm, I'm really jamming lemon.
0:09We'd learn a lot about Dallas Goddard. Um, if lemon had a really, really bad year, then maybe I would be willing to take some Dallas Goddard.
0:09I'm currently fading. Um, if you had a really bad year, maybe I'd be willing to take some Saquon Barkley.
0:09I'm currently fading. I'm not really into this offense very much, but, um, well, I guess if, if Makai Lemon had a,
0:09yeah, if Makai Lemon had a bad year, I'd be willing to consider more pieces of it.
0:09Um, it would just be really helpful to me because I'm kind of expecting him to really have a strong year in
0:09an offense that doesn't do a lot. Um, and if he had any, even I'm not ranking him massively high because it's
0:09like, again, this offense doesn't leave a lot out there for its skill players sometimes because of the Jalen Hertz effect.
0:09Um, if he had like 800 yards again, I, I think that's really challenging for everyone else, uh, at their costs.
0:09Cause Barkley goes really high. Devonta Smith goes really high.
0:09He's going, Devonta Smith's going right after that, like sort of big tier break in, in my rankings.
0:09So right after the, the elite receivers drop off, there's Devonta Smith, whatever it is, wide receiver 13.
0:09It's like, man, that he's not the 13th best receiver this season for fantasy football.
0:09In my mind, when he has that good of a rookie receiver behind him, you could boost him up because AJ Brown's gone and all that.
0:09But, um, anyway, I would learn a lot about that though.
0:09I might be into it if I knew that Makai Lemon had a really bad rookie year.
0:09Yeah, I didn't have, I didn't have Lemon on my list.
0:09I had Smith on my list. Um, but for very similar reasons.
0:09And, uh, I think Lemon is a great pick there.
0:09Um, I will, we can only do it. We can do a few more rounds of this.
0:09I don't want to get like too repetitive where we're just like taking like a million, but I, uh, I'll take Devonta Adams.
0:09Um, and, uh, I think he's one that is, it's part, part of the reason I'm taking Adams is for Adams sake,
0:09who I'm not really taking, but like, Hey, if the, if the, if the, if the Oracle comes back and tells me
0:09he's catching 14 touchdowns again, I'll change that. Um, but one of the reasons is that, uh, I think if the stats
0:09were like crazy big, then I know that Puka got hurt probably.
0:09Uh, and that would drastically change how I play the first round.
0:09And then also if they were really bad, then my guy who I've taken on almost every team, um, this year that
0:09I have done a redraft on Terrence Ferguson is just like even more of a priority.
0:09Um, cause I, I mean, part of the reason why I'm so bullish on T for is I tend to, I'm guessing
0:09Adams is a little closer to wash than not.
0:09And it wouldn't surprise me if the Rams had to find a secondary option and T for gets, uh, installed as a
0:10far larger piece of the passing game than imaginable.
0:10And like, we were just talking about how dire the tight end position is late.
0:10I think he could be a real like joker in the deck that completely changes how the tight end position pans out this year.
0:10So I feel like I'm getting information on three players with, with Devante Adams.
0:10Um, and I, I guess the, the one way that this goes really, really badly is if I get really poor information
0:10on Adams, I start clicking a bunch of Puka and a T Ferg.
0:10And then I realized the reason why Adams is a city season is Matthew Stafford's like back fucked up or whatever.
0:10And they all have to catch past from Ty Simpson this year.
0:10But anyways, I'm going to, I'm going to hope that's not the case.
0:10Oh, that's that. That's kind of funny. Um, I hadn't thought of that.
0:10I thought it was a great pick until you said that now, no, no, no, no, I'm just kidding.
0:10No, I thought, I think that's a great pick.
0:10Very concentrated offense. And the direct Terrence Ferguson tie-in, even after you took the pick, I was like, yeah, you'd learn a lot about Puka.
0:10Um, and you learn a lot about Adams himself.
0:10I mean, he could be a reasonable pick if he scores a bunch of touchdowns again, but the Ferguson tie-in as well.
0:10I think that's a really strong pick. Great eighth round pick.
0:10Better than your first or second round pick. Should have been your first.
0:10I'm going to take Jane Daniels. Not because I care all that much about all of the players in his offense that
0:10he would impact, but because I want to take a lot of late round quarterbacks this year.
0:10There's a lot of upside QBs. But if Jane Daniels scored like 26, 27, 28 points per game, I mean, it could be Daniels or Lamar here.
0:10I, I, I would just take them both and maybe I'll just take more on my list.
0:10Yeah. Yeah. I mean, either of them, these are the two guys to me.
0:10Josh Allen was a QB one last year. People get mad at me that I don't give him the props.
0:10He scored almost four points per game. Less in FFPC scoring than Lamar Jackson as the QB one in 2024.
0:10There were four QBs that scored more than, than Josh Allen.
0:10He continues to score as the QB one or the QB two almost every year.
0:10That consistency is great. He deserves to go high, but I'm not from an opportunity cost standpoint.
0:10I'm not taking a quarterback early unless they can gap the field because what happened last year when he finishes the QB
0:10one is Drake may and Matthew Stafford were very close to him.
0:10And so structurally you would have preferred to take him Drake may or Matthew Stafford from the later rounds or the late
0:10season Brock Purdy stuff or Trevor Lawrence stuff. If you pick that up off the waiver wire or you had him in
0:10best ball or whatever, those were the things that won late round QB one because Josh Allen didn't massively gap everyone.
0:10It doesn't mean he was a bust. He was an overall QB one, but what I want to know about early QB
0:10ADPs and particularly Daniels, who's got the cheaper ADP.
0:10That's why I took him before Lamar. It's just that he's a, he's cheaper.
0:10He's a discounted version of the play is do they hit a real ceiling?
0:10Because last year, if either Daniels or Lamar stayed healthy and hit a ceiling, if Lamar hit his 2024 year, if Daniels
0:10hit what I think his 2024 year sort of could have been, if you factor in what he did in the post-season,
0:10he played a couple of three post-season games and you take out the game that he left early with injury.
0:10So like in his rookie year, he left that one game really early with a chest injury after a long run.
0:10I think it was against the Panthers. It was right away.
0:10He played like five, seven, eight snaps, whatever. And then he played hurt the next couple of weeks.
0:10If you do some factoring in what Daniel ceiling really looked like his rookie year and in the healthy games and into
0:10those post-season games, his points per game were very similar to Lamar's and they were scaling up late in that year where
0:10they were really letting him throw a lot more.
0:10And he was doing a lot more as a passer late in 2024, 2025, obviously injured, misses time, comes back, not as effective.
0:10They had some weird game flows where they're like protecting him and they pulled them out of games, even though he didn't
0:10get like the Minnesota game, their team just kind of got destroyed.
0:10And then they kind of took him out of the game just to kind of protect him.
0:10It was a lost season. And I think his ceiling is up there.
0:10If you look at the like rushing rates, I actually projected him for the most carries per game.
0:10Both Allen's and Jalen Hurts have come down a little bit and Lamar's have come down a little bit.
0:10I think there's some potential for regression positively for those guys as well.
0:10But Jane Daniels is the one that is still young enough.
0:10And the first two years had rush attempts per game numbers that are like, he has the potential to run a lot
0:10more than those guys, a lot more than most every other QB, other than maybe like Malik Willis matches him or something.
0:10But Daniels also could have the QB, like the passing numbers with it that Willis does not project for.
0:10And so in terms of the real ceiling scoring potential, I think he's playable early.
0:10I don't want to structurally, but if I found out that he scored a ton of points, it would also give me
0:10good information on Terry McLaurin, potentially Stefan Diggs, some other guys in this, in this offense.
0:10But the main thing would be, it would teach me a lot about what I would want to do at quarterback.
0:10Yeah. I totally agree. I, uh, I had Jaden high on my list and I also had Lamar high on my list and yeah, I'll just take Lamar.
0:10Um, he was my top player remaining. He was already gonna be my next pick.
0:10Um, part of the reason why I maybe lean the case that you made for Daniels being more important than Lamar.
0:10Um, I thought it was really compelling because I actually had Lamar higher and then you probably changed my mind on that.
0:10But the reason why I originally was more excited to take Lamar is that Jaden Daniels.
0:10I, I do feel like it's more about Jaden Daniels.
0:10Um, I, I have a lot of conviction on Zay this year.
0:10And the nice thing about Lamar that I like is that like, if he has a massive year, there's not a lot
0:10of other ways that that can go other than that Zay has a massive year.
0:10And I also feel like it works the other way around.
0:10Like if you're telling me Lamar has a massive year, like Zay's not getting injured this year.
0:10Cause I don't think Lamar is having an awesome year.
0:10If his top options are Mark Andrews and a couple of rookies.
0:10So I, I feel like those two are like two of the most correlated players to one another in, in all of fantasy football.
0:10Um, and I get to know how to play the, I get to know how to play the quarterback position this year
0:10to, for the same reasons you mentioned with Jaden Daniels.
0:10Um, and then I also feel like I get to know whether I get to confirm or deny whether to be really
0:10in on kind of one of my favorite receiver picks this year.
0:10I love that as well. And yeah, just to be clear, you were saying that I convinced you to take like Daniels first in this.
0:10I, I correct. Yeah. No, no, not, not above Lamar.
0:10I was like, I had both those guys like at the top of my list.
0:10I had Lamar than Jay. Yeah. And, uh, and you were like, yeah, I should have actually had Jaden higher, but I'm
0:10still ranking Jaden Daniels are higher than Jaden in fantasy, but I also really like Jaden in fantasy.
0:10Yeah. He's just a little cheaper too. So you get that as well.
0:10Yeah. Yeah. I still have Jaden Daniels as my, my QB three.
0:10I do. I did put Lamar one. Um, Alan does, I think deserves to be up there.
0:10I just have a tier of three, those top three guys, but like Jaden is the only quarterback in of the top.
0:10Like I haven't done my, I haven't gotten there yet in my draft guide and I haven't read yours yet.
0:10So I don't know if I'm stealing or not, but, um, um, but I, Jaden will be the only early quarterback that
0:10I will list with the target destinations here. Yeah.
0:10I did not put them as a target just specifically because I think you want to play late round QB, but obviously
0:10ranking him in a tier with Lamar and Alan a tier above guys that are going ahead of him in ADP, like
0:10Joe Burrow and Drake may sort of implies that he's a target.
0:10Yeah. Um, yeah, she's not, not a target. Right.
0:10Right. So I'm going to go, I got two picks that I really like here that are kind of correlated to, we'll go, we'll go to 12.
0:10So you get four left. We'll make this natural number and fancy football.
0:10I can't stop. I can't finish this draft without taking Xavier worthy for, for 0.1 seconds.
0:10I was like, is he taking Xavier? Like get, I would learn so much.
0:10No, Xavier worthy is the pick. I was like, price.
0:10You want to talk about Fernando Mendoza's waste of it.
0:10You think Xavier, like that dude. I love that.
0:10Xavier worthy is, uh, insanely cheap. Um, for what his profile theoretically could be.
0:10I understand it's theoretical, but this is exercise where I get to learn actual information.
0:10If he has a really bad year, I would be pretty in on Rasheed Rice early.
0:10Cause I think you'd have to be, I'd be pretty in on Cyrus Allen.
0:10It's similar to some of the Mahomes talk earlier.
0:10I don't think they have a lot of other shows in town.
0:10And I do think they're still going to throw to some degree.
0:10Like they're, they're not going to just be happy to not make the playoffs again this year.
0:10They were one of the most dominant dynasties in all football for several years in a row.
0:10They had a horrible year last year, even before the ACL for Mahomes.
0:10They're going to come out gunning a little bit this year.
0:10They're going to try to win games. And if worthy's bad, like I still think they're going to be throwing.
0:10I still think they're going to be trying to put up numbers.
0:10I still think so. I'd be taking Kelsey. I'd be taking rice.
0:10I'd be taking guys. I don't want to take Travis Kelsey, but this team is so thin that I think there's a
0:10possibility that Travis Kelsey is a reasonable pick at like tight end 10 or whatever.
0:10So Xavier, but Xavier worthy is mostly about, I want to know what Xavier worthy's do.
0:10It's kind of like the Jameson Williams thing where it's like, I just want to know what his season was.
0:10It would help me think through a lot of different things, whether I can push wide receiver a little bit and all these things.
0:10Cause I still think there is a ceiling enough of a, I mean, I'm, I'm more down on Xavier worthy than I was last year to be clear.
0:10It's, it's not even close. I'm not as interested in having him on my teams at all, but it's a little bit
0:10like what I did with Kyle pits for multiple years early in his career where it's like, I don't think the thesis is gone.
0:10And he, the whole market is way out on the player.
0:10Now they're like completely out on a guy who is in a big routes role in an offense.
0:10That's going to pass a lot that has a good quarterback that historically has a good coordinator.
0:10We talked about in the last show. I was, when we were talking about worthy and rice, I was like, well, then
0:10what are you doing with the chiefs? And you, you think you made a compelling case that maybe any reads just done.
0:10And, and those are interesting, you know, angles as well, but the Xavier worthy at like wide receiver 45 or something like
0:10you guys are going to make me be back in on him.
0:10I want to know what he did. I just to save myself.
0:10I think that's fair. Non-derogatory. That's fair. Uh, I'm going to take a guy that I, I bet someone is listening to
0:10this screaming and asking why we haven't taken this guy yet.
0:10Um, but I'll take Jonathan Brooks. Oh, that's a really good one that I honestly hadn't even thought, but somebody should be
0:10screaming at us for not taking him yet. That's a good one.
0:10I told you. Yeah. Cause as we got, I didn't have mom.
0:10I didn't have him on my list. I completely blank.
0:10And then like about a minute ago, I was like, wait, why haven't we taken this guy yet?
0:10Because yeah, he's a running back to literally nobody knows what he is.
0:10He's the biggest black box of fantasy. He's steaming up boards.
0:10Um, I think he fits what you want in this game, which is like, if not him, then who, which is yeah.
0:10Like either Jonathan, either Jonathan Brooks is like Brooks is one of the picks that is most likely to either be like
0:10a smash or like one of the funniest things we ever did as a community.
0:10Um, like when we look back on this in multiple years, like I think the rate of outcomes is so wide.
0:10Um, I don't love Chuba, but like if, if the report back on Brooks is like, no, he had 40 carries this
0:10year, or I guess I don't know that, but I would know he had 200 yards.
0:10Um, then, then like, yeah, I do unfortunately have to take Chuba Hubbard a lot.
0:10And, um, I think that with Brooks, like he's a guy that has, has, I think the potential to be a legitimate
0:10league winner or the potential to be like one of the worst picks in years.
0:10So I would like to have that information. I don't, I guess I disagree with the, the thing that it would be
0:10like funny in hindsight, or he'd be one of the worst picks in years or whatever.
0:10Like he's, his price is what it is. It's, it's discounted to your point about him being a league winner.
0:10It's discounted to what his profile is. His profile is similar to Jeremiah loves, but he's missed two years.
0:10And so, yeah, we're concerned as far as like, um, and I, I know I said that earlier in the show about
0:10Marshawn Lloyd, but, uh, Brooks is the one that's actually really similar where evasion rate yards after contact per attempt.
0:10Breakaway run rate yards per route run as a receiver.
0:10All these peripherals are like, they're a touch below love.
0:10I think he's a little higher in the evasion rate and a little bit lower than the other three.
0:10Now he had a lot fewer touches. And so when love is able to maintain that over a longer sample, it's much
0:10more meaningful, but like Jonathan Brooks was the top running back taken in his class.
0:10He was a second round pick for a reason off an ACL.
0:10The Panthers wanted to wait, but might've been a late first if he was coming in.
0:10Right. Yeah. He might've been a first rounder. They wanted to wait on him anywhere.
0:10They were willing to wait on him anyway. Um, use the second round pick knowing they were going to have to wait probably a year.
0:10And then they ended up having to wait two years, but this is a team that has had intent with this player and his interest in this player.
0:10I, I, I, I guess I don't, I hear that, that, that theory on him that like, we should just know that he's bad because of the injury.
0:10It's like, dude, what? Look at his profile. We're looking for outliers.
0:10Like, this is a guy that's going way discounted to he's better profile wise, capital wise and everything than Basial Tootin, then
0:10all those dudes in the, in the dead zone.
0:10He's going behind them because of the injury stuff.
0:10We're getting the discount. We make risk adjusted bets.
0:10We're getting that discount. We might be wrong. He might be a zero, but it's not a dumb play.
0:10I mean, you make your bets, you know, I mean, I'm willing to make that bet a little bit personally.
0:10And so anyway, I think it's a great, a great one.
0:10I said to you, right. We jumped on air that I hadn't really looked through the one position I hadn't really looked through was the running back position.
0:10I thought that was like this, the dumbest thing.
0:10Probably a lot of people are screaming at their, their, their, uh, podcast saying, why aren't you guys naming more running backs?
0:10Cause it's a very important position to know whether guys stayed healthy.
0:10We probably should have just named a bunch of early running backs like Jeremiah love and like breeze hall and all these things.
0:10I mean, that's probably the way to play this.
0:10I am going to go with one right now.
0:10I'm going to go with the late running back.
0:10I'm going to go with Marshawn Lloyd. That's fun.
0:10Yeah. I just think, I mean, whatever, who cares?
0:10We're playing a silly game. I just thought of him when you said Brooks, because it's a, another really fun prospect profile.
0:10That's very injury related. It would give us a lot of information on Josh Jacobs.
0:10Um, it wouldn't really, if he had a really bad year, it wouldn't give us a ton of information on Josh Jacobs,
0:10frankly, cause they could both get hurt. It could be a James Conner, Trey Benson situation fairly easily.
0:10Um, but if he has a really good year, we like Josh Jacobs limps along the 3.7 yards per carry all season
0:10and you could have survived them, but you didn't need them.
0:10Yeah. It's probably better to take Josh Jacobs in this draft, but I don't draft Josh Jacobs in any kind of a draft.
0:10So I can't take him in this one either, but he would, it would make more sense to take him cause you
0:10would know whether or not he had a good year.
0:10And then if he had a bad year, you'd know to take Lloyd, but I'm just going to draft Lloyd.
0:10I want, I want Lloyd cause you're not taking Jacobs anyway.
0:10So who cares if you get information on Jacobs, right?
0:10You can tell me at 2000 yards, I still wouldn't draft.
0:10All right. I I've going to do the exact opposite of what I did an hour ago when I was like, look,
0:10I'm not taking this exercise too literally. I'm doing it figuratively.
0:10Now I'm going to take it really literally because I think what you, what you actually, the most advantageous player to know something about would be a player.
0:10I think going in the late second round, because they're available to you if you have an early draft slot, but if
0:10you've got a really positive information on them, you can just take them at the opposite turn.
0:10So no matter what draft slot you get, you're getting access to this player at a really high leverage opportunity cost.
0:10And this is a player that fits that and a player that I think has a very wide range of outcomes.
0:10So I'll take the big dog, Derek Henry. Derek Henry.
0:10Very interesting one. Cause it also, if you find out that he got hurt, I think you're, you're more in on Lamar.
0:10You're more in on. You're more in on making shots at Adam Randall.
0:10You're taking Adam Randall late. Yeah, dude. I like the big dog.
0:10They're also probably just going to sign a veteran running back when that happens.
0:10But I think it opens up a lot. It totally changes what you think of their offense.
0:10And then like, if it's an absolute smash, I think his ADP is like 22 or something right now.
0:10So if it's an absolute smash, then that's just your second round pick.
0:10You don't know. No matter what draft slot you get, that's your second round pick.
0:10If he has 1800 rushing yards and you know, 17 TDs, which we know he can do, then I'm just drafting him in the second round.
0:10And I'm happy about that. I mean, that's a great call.
0:11Yeah. The veteran I realized that it's going to be on the Ravens.
0:11If Derek Henry gets hurt is Austin Eckler. That's, that's where Austin Eckler winds up in the second half of the year.
0:11It'll be a nice, it'll be a nice committee between Austin Eckler and Najee Harris and Najee Harris.
0:11There's another good one. Yeah. I mean, after all the Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman and all the other.
0:11Lev Bell. God, I forgot he was them. He was wearing number 17 on that team.
0:11Good Lord. Yeah. Kenny and Drake is on that team.
0:11I'm going to do, God, I love the running backs.
0:11I want to just keep drafting running backs forever.
0:11I'm just going to add an extra couple of rounds.
0:11Why not? Yeah. We may, we may need to add a couple extra.
0:11I want to do Jadarian Price next. We talked about him on the running back show.
0:11So he's a, he's a strong, um, like again, talent-based bet where I, I, there's a lot of uncertainty.
0:11If we find out that it's a bad year, it unlocks some other plays.
0:11Like we, you might want to take Charbonnet later.
0:11You might want to even consider some George Helani late or whatever.
0:11Um, but the other like major thing is like, if, if he has a strong year, I think you can just take
0:11over the whole backfield and be a really big hit in this range.
0:11So you, you'd have a really big, uh, piece of information about the dead zone, similar to your Henderson and Tootin conversation.
0:11I love that pick. Um, this guy's been top of my board for like eight rounds.
0:11I've just avoided doing it because it's so similar to your literal first pick, but I'll take Luther burden.
0:11Um, which I think is like for very similar reasons to why you took Colson Loveland.
0:11Um, but I, I think that, uh, what I like about your Loveland pick slightly more is, is you get the, the
0:11positional knowledge certainly, but I also have so much confidence in in Colson Loveland that like if Luther burdens, if, if, if
0:11I get back bad information on Luther burden, I'm, I'm prepared to just take that as positive information about Colson level.
0:11Obviously you could get hurt or something. Maybe they both get hurt, but I think one of the reasons that would explain
0:11why Luther burden had, um, like of the three bears, I'll put it this way of the three bears.
0:11He's the one I'm most uncertain about. Like I have a lot of conviction that Loveland is really good.
0:11I have somewhat conviction that Rome is not bad, but not a difference maker.
0:11Um, burden is the one I have the least conviction about in either direction.
0:11So it's the one where I think the information is the most meaningful to me, except for the point that you made,
0:11which is like when you get actual information, like also level that you just know exactly how to play tight end this year.
0:11So, um, level is a better pick, but I think burden is a pretty similar pick.
0:11That's a good one. Um, I'm going to do Jaden Reed.
0:11This is the next, my next pick was going to be Matthew golden.
0:11So that's a funny idea. Same idea. Jaden Reed is the two receiver set theory, right?
0:11Like we'll, we'll learn information about whether golden had a good year.
0:11Um, maybe whether Christian Watson is actually worth playing what the pass rate was.
0:11Uh, I, when I said, I want to just keep taking running backs reads the one that's been near the top of my list for a while.
0:11I also had burden on my list, but obviously since I already took love when I didn't, I didn't want to put
0:11burden, but read reads, uh, the two receiver set stuff would just be, um, well, obviously we wouldn't learn that, but we would learn in front.
0:11I think there's a possibility. Yeah. Right. By proxy.
0:11If you find out he has like 1100 yards that he's, well, he's either playing a two receiver sets or you don't care, I guess.
0:11Yeah. Yeah. You're in on him. If he has like seven 50, you're like, oh, well, Matthew golden was probably a pretty good pick late.
0:11And similar to that worthy price tag where you're like, some of these receivers going really, really late are, are nice plays have some upside options.
0:11Um, and I'd learn a lot about both read and golden in a key part of the receiver like draft range.
0:11Obviously read goes a little higher. Uh, yeah, I'm going to say right in the same receiver range.
0:11If you hadn't taken read, I would have taken golden, but now I'm just going to not cause that's boring.
0:11Cause it's the same pick, but I will say in the same receiver range.
0:11I'll take Casey Concepcio. Yeah, that's a good one.
0:11So you've already taken two rookie read receivers. I'll take one.
0:11And I also get, uh, I get a bit of a twofer because I do think he gives me information on how
0:11to play tight end this year because, um, I, I do, I'm the only one of the only reasons I'm not like,
0:11I mean, I am way overweight fan, but one of the reasons I'm not even more overweight fan is that I like Casey so much.
0:11And I do wonder like how many Cleveland Browns are going to be massive success stories in 2026.
0:11Um, but a, a, a bullish Casey Concepcion, uh, confirmation.
0:11I mean, he's cheap enough. You can just get them on literally every team and a bearish one would make me even
0:11more interested in fan and for sure. I'm going to take Brees hall.
0:11He's the guy at the two, three turn. I was thinking about similar to your Derek Henry play.
0:11Uh, I think he has some real ceiling. He's got a lot of talent-based ceiling.
0:11I think the jets could actually wind up being a little better.
0:11They've added a lot of skill position talent. I mean, we, we hear this about the jets every single year, but like
0:11Geno Smith's at least a vaguely competent quarterback and they do actually have some depth there.
0:11I would really like to know if Brees hall has a really good year.
0:11Um, I mean, I think Garrett Wilson's a really good pick this year too, but this would be huge for the reasons you said about Henry.
0:11The other one is Jeremiah love in this range to me.
0:11The issue with picking love is all I'm really learning about his love.
0:11If he has a bad year, I don't really know if like the Cardinals were bad, if a different running back took the work, et cetera.
0:11I mean, that could be the case with hall too, where I don't really know a lot, but I think if I
0:11knew hall had a bad year, I'd feel more comfortable playing his backups a little bit and maybe playing, um, maybe playing
0:11Garrett Wilson, maybe playing the pass rate. I feel, I feel the opposite.
0:11Actually, if I knew hall had a, if I knew all had a good year, I would smash all the jets pass catchers.
0:11Yeah, that's, that's a good point. That's actually, because I think, I think that every single jet is underpriced relative to their talent.
0:11I actually thought about picking Geno Smith. I won't now, but I like, I think every jet is underpriced relative to their talent pretty significantly.
0:11And if, if Brees had like a, a legitimately good year, that's telling me they have a functional offense.
0:11And then I probably want to be really invested in the jets pass catcher.
0:11I like that point. Um, and it probably would apply to Jeremiah.
0:11I love to, if he had a really good year, you'd feel better about the Cardinals offense, but I just do think the Cardinal situation figures to be.
0:11Yeah. I mean, they, they project for the fewest points in the league.
0:11The jets are not massively higher, but they like the, the Cardinals have a really hard schedule, the hardest schedule in the league.
0:11And so anyway, I think Jeremiah loves a really good answer to this question.
0:11There's probably people listening to it. Like, how have you not named Jeremiah love yet?
0:11Cause he could be a breakout superstar. I thought about him.
0:11I do think you learn a little bit more with hall.
0:11And I guess I think calls the better pick in that range.
0:11I think he's the better actual fantasy pick. And so he's the one I want to know more about.
0:11Um, all right. We've got a couple of picks left here.
0:11I will do, um, I'll, I'll take you Corey cross.
0:11You merit. Yeah. Um, so, I mean, I, I've been, I've been pretty vocal that I think this Washington backfield is, is undervalued, uh, across the board.
0:11I'd be, I'd be legitimately surprised if there wasn't a winner from this Washington backfield that was impactful.
0:11I, I think that, um, the reason why I'm taking JCM is like, if, um, if I picked white and I get
0:11really positive information on white, that's great. If I get negative information on white, I feel like I still have no idea
0:11who the winner is between JCM and Katron Allen.
0:11Like I would end up taking a lot of both of them, but I feel like that could flip.
0:11I think JCM is the one who cuts most both ways.
0:11I think if you, if you receive, um, really positive information on him, then, then he's the guy.
0:11I think if you don't like, I think then, then, you know, Allen is more interesting, but I think white has to
0:11be the guy because I don't think Callen has any path of being like an every down guy.
0:11So I think JCM, but you can pick it under Washington running back.
0:11I just think there's going to be a winner here.
0:11They're really cheap. Um, and, and I'll, I'll take him.
0:11It's a good one. Um, I'm looking at the rest of my list.
0:11It's CMC and Puka. I already said why I didn't take them is basically just cause it's kind of boring.
0:11Uh, and, and as far as Puka is concerned, you already took Adams and you learn a lot of the similar stuff
0:11from the Adams pick and has some of the same pitfalls where like, if he has a bad year, it might be because of Stafford.
0:11It doesn't necessarily guarantee that it's other guys, but Puka to me is the one that can really run away with the position.
0:11I said this and I mean, he's going for, so it's like, yeah, a third of the first round you get, you get information.
0:11Um, but like he could have such a line, such a good line that you'd be, you'd be into taking him, you
0:11know, one-on-one and then McCaffrey is sort of the same thing, but I'm not going to take those.
0:11The other one is, is Caleb Williams. So I think is a really good quarterback pick, but we've already taken both Loveland
0:11and burden, but I mean, I would love to know if he had a really great year because I do think it's
0:11going to be concentrated, uh, on these guys. It's the same reason we took Loveland and burden.
0:11So I said, um, a bit ago when I took worthy, I had two, two earlier, like tied to two earlier picks.
0:11Worthy was tied to the Mahomes pick. Williams was, was too similar to the Loveland pick.
0:11And then now that you've taken burden, I, I'm definitely not going to do it.
0:11Uh, which is just all just preamble for me to say that I'm going to take another random running back or I'm
0:11actually going to take a late round QB here.
0:11This is kind of a weird one. I'm going to take Bo Nix.
0:11Fun. Bo Nix is a, yeah, I think he's a fun one, right?
0:11You, you've kind of got me a little bit Jaden Waddle curious, Jalen Waddle curious.
0:11I'm not super into him. If Bo Nix has a great year, I want to be in on Waddle.
0:11Um, I want to be in on Pat Bryant.
0:11Uh, and then the other thing is like, I think RJ Harvey was like another way I could have tried to play into this.
0:11I had him on my list. Yeah. Yeah. Harvey Dobbins.
0:11You'd learn some information about them. You'd want to, they're, they're all cheap enough that like, if you knew that Bo Nix
0:11had a really good year, you could get access to Harvey.
0:11You get access to Dobbins. You get access to Jonah Coleman too.
0:11It doesn't give you a ton of information about who it is, but I'm here for the future.
0:11I'll tell you right now. Bo Nix is going to have a good year.
0:11That's why I didn't pick him. I just already know he's going to have a good year.
0:11I know he's a great target. I, I just want to know how good the year is.
0:11I want to, I mean, he throws a ton of passes, all that stuff.
0:11I want to, if he has a, uh, I think, I think the Broncos are an undervalued offense.
0:11I've said this multiple places. I have future bets on their win total over.
0:11Like, I think they're just misunderstood. And I think they've been misunderstood for the better part of the last 12 months.
0:11Yeah, I totally agree. Um, maybe, maybe I'll even get you in on Jalen Waddle, uh, more at some point.
0:11We'll see. Uh, but I totally agree on Nix.
0:11I thought about him. Okay. I have one pick left here.
0:11Um, I'm trying to try to do something fun.
0:11I feel like all the names I have on my list are like, not, not that fun.
0:11Um, so yeah, we kind of already did all the fun ones.
0:11Whatever. I'll, I'll just, I'll just pick the top name on my list.
0:11Um, I get, I get the two, three turn, uh, factor again that I like.
0:11And I do think this is one of the more high variance profiles, um, that we got going early in drafts.
0:11I'll take AJ Brown. Oh, the reason, the reason I didn't have him that high on my list is like, if his
0:11stats are bad, I still don't really want to take that much Romeo tops.
0:11Um, but like, I guess I would, um, you know that, I mean, I'm, I have Drake.
0:11I know that I'm not taking May. Yeah. That's suck.
0:11Yeah. I have Drake may as a fade is the QB three.
0:11I think it, it clarifies the Drake may thing quite a bit.
0:11Um, but I'm going to finish part of my issue though.
0:11It's like, if part of my issue is I feel like I'm only getting news on Brown.
0:11If Brown has a great year or a bad year, that doesn't really impact how I play the running backs.
0:11Um, if Brown has a great year, that's good news for me.
0:11I think he's really overvalued where he's going. So I don't know if I'd actually still take him.
0:11If he has a bad year, I would affirm a fate I'm already going to do.
0:11And I don't really like anybody else on the team.
0:11That's why he was low on my list. But I do think that AJ Brown himself, uh, matters a lot this year
0:11in fantasy and would, would inform how I draft to a large degree.
0:11And I think he has like legitimately has upside of being one of the top five wide receivers in fantasy.
0:11If he gets back to being 2024, AJ Brown with by far the best quarterback he's ever played with.
0:11Um, and there's like a possibility his knee is just cooked and he's a massive landmine.
0:11So I do think he's a pretty high variance player.
0:11Love that. Um, great one, great talent-based bet that we have some uncertainty on and, and, you know, very similar to your neighbor's pick earlier as well.
0:11And yeah. Um, the guy that when you brought this up was, I think the first guy I said to you, uh,
0:11I think if we did this last year, he would have been our one-on-one.
0:11We were both very into him. I think we're both just a little bit snake bitten, but I'm going to close it out.
0:11I just sullied the waters by doing Mendoza is what happened.
0:11That, that may have been, I already dove in on the Raiders to that.
0:11And then, then we already knew what was going on with Brock Bowers.
0:11It was my genius Mendoza pick. So you've been to host a pick.
0:11It was such, such great information. I'm going to take Brock Bowers with the final pick.
0:11Uh, it would, it would be, uh, extremely helpful to the tight end picture to know what Brock Bowers did very similar to the Colston Loveland pick.
0:11Yeah. I opened, uh, my draft with. And so, uh, yeah, obviously Brock Bowers, if he has a massive year is, and
0:11then you get the element of the, like the second round pick thing that you've been saying where depending on where you're
0:11drafting at, you know, whether or not you need to reach on him, you get some value to, to him.
0:11People don't want to take him super high and single tight end, like home leagues.
0:11He's going like later in the second. And so, yeah, I mean, if you're, I totally had a late to ADP because
0:11I, I don't have him right there, but yeah, he does.
0:11He does in fact have a late to ADP.
0:11So you could just take a middle of the second round, early second round, whatever.
0:11I mean, if you're late first, you could take him late first and then just take someone else in the early second to make sure to get him.
0:11But if he has the year that we all know is kind of in there for Brock Bowers, you'd make sure to get him in the earlier rounds.
0:11He would be a really huge piece to have.
0:11Doesn't tell you a lot about other people, but if he has a really bad year, it like the thing about him
0:11for last year, the reason I brought him up when you brought up this idea to me like months ago was if
0:11we would have known Brock Bowers last year, I would have been all in on Trey McBride.
0:11I was writing that and talking about that concept.
0:11I was super in on Bowers, but if Bowers gets hurt, I'll be like, I also really like McBride the way that
0:11I, I had, I do these big tear breaks.
0:11I had a big tear break after McBride before Kittle.
0:11A lot of people had Kittle there and I was like, no, it's these two profiles, but I had a tear separating them.
0:11I had two single player tears. It was weird, but I felt strongly that you should prioritize Bowers when I did my, I also do partial tear breaks.
0:11It's a, it's a whole convoluted process, but when I did my Titan tears article, I had tier one a and tier
0:11one B is the way that I broke it up.
0:11So like similar tier, but, but I thought you should prioritize Bowers, but my whole logic was like, if I knew Bowers
0:11was bad, the only other guy that I thought had that kind of profile was McBride.
0:11The only reason it's slightly different this year is you have Loveland.
0:11I think you still have Warren also that are that high fan into me is a little bit really interesting, but a
0:11little bit further back because of offensive stuff and all that.
0:11But you have two young dudes in Loveland and Warren, maybe fan and even that can run down Bowers and McBride.
0:11I think this year that I don't think was as clear last year behind the two of them.
0:11At any rate, I still think you get a lot of information if you don't, if you find out bad things about
0:11Bowers, about how to play McBride, Loveland, Warren, the top of the tight end position.
0:11It would be really helpful info. Are there other, like, so like one of the other things I had is like a classification.
0:11I never took any of these guys was like the injury rehab tight ends, Tucker craft, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta.
0:11I think that would help that position. I had Sadiq Gadsden and Juwan on another line.
0:11I never took any of them. I had Sadiq Gadsden, T-Ferg on one of my, uh, T-Ferg.
0:11Yeah. Yeah. Are there other guys or like other, so like learning more about tight ends.
0:11All the rookies would be interesting. Like basically, um, pick, pick and choose whichever one.
0:11I think that the similar reasoning for Tootin and Henderson, I could have thrown Buck Yervin as another guy that I think
0:11is, would be interesting to know a lot about.
0:11Um, I think the year two, the year two quarterbacks would be interesting for the state of those offenses.
0:11Shock was a guy that I had on my list.
0:12Um, and I think just the weapons are less exciting for Cam Ward and for Jackson Dart, but you can make similar case for them.
0:12Dart, and especially as a guy that if his stats are really good, that's just your late round quarterback for the year.
0:12Um, so yeah, those, those were guys that were on my list.
0:12Who else was out there for you? No, I think those are, those are great ones.
0:12Great honorable mentions. I would throw out when you were doing some of the running back like Bucky and, and then the backup.
0:12I mean, I would throw out Saquon Barkley, similar to your Derrick Henry play.
0:12And then there's a clean backup and tank Bigsby.
0:12I really like, if I knew that Barkley had a bad year, I think I would, I'll, it's almost like you could take Bigsby.
0:12Like, like I took Lloyd instead of Jacobs. You could almost just say, I'm taking Bigsby.
0:12I want to know if he has 500 yards or more than I know a lot about Barkley too.
0:12But, um, we mentioned the RJ Harvey and like Dobbin stuff.
0:12There's a lot of running back stuff, obviously. I mean, Jalen Warren and Dowdle, if you got information about that would be really helpful.
0:12Deandre Swift, I think would be kind of interesting.
0:12I mean, he's a weird one, but the bears offense is so interesting and you could play that through.
0:12You could say Monongah instead, but all of those, you know, uncertain running back room scataboo and Tyrone Tracy.
0:12I mean, yeah, you can, you can learn a lot of, a lot out of playing any of those in this type of a setting.
0:12And, uh, but yeah, I think there's a, there's a ton of fun ones.
0:12I didn't have a ton of other year, year three receivers.
0:12I had, I didn't pick any of them because a lot of them are in like weirdly unconcentrated offenses where I felt
0:12like I don't actually learn that much about the other guys on their teams.
0:12But I think lad BTJ, uh, Harrison and Rome are like all like very wide range of outcomes players in their own right.
0:12That would be interesting to know enough about. Um, yes.
0:12Harrison, a lot of them are guys I'm not taking.
0:12So Harrison and Harrison and Wilson were two that I was thinking about just cause I, that's a concentrated one.
0:12I was giving you crap about Hunter cause it's a less concentrated offense.
0:12I, I've had a hard time with the Cardinals one because it really has to be Harrison or Wilson.
0:12It feels like along with McBride, obviously, and love and love.
0:12Yeah. So, I mean, you get a lot of a running back and a tight end presence, but it would be interesting
0:12to know a little bit about like Wilson, about Harrison.
0:12Yeah. Um, a booka would be an interesting one.
0:12And then you get some information. Very interesting one.
0:12Yeah. You get some Godwin information. You did burden those kinds of upside plays.
0:12I did Jamison Williams. Those kinds of receivers in that range, Garrett Wilson, Tedderall McMillan would be really good ones.
0:12You basically did flowers by doing Lamar. Um, yeah.
0:12I mean, obviously there's a lot of, there's a lot of good, actually a lot of a bright young, um, for, for McMillan and Coker based reasons.
0:12Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we're, we're sort of just naming a lot of players that we think have upside that we think
0:12have concerns and red flags, but could be upside plays.
0:12And that's sort of the name of the game in fantasy to have good long views, uh, profiles.
0:12We spent a lot of time talking about guys that have good long view profiles, even if they've been hurt and stuff like Marshawn Lloyd and Jonathan Brooks.
0:12And like, look, these guys could be stars still, like it can still happen if they can stay healthy.
0:12If you look at our lists here, our final lists, it's a lot of guys that we really liked as prospects.
0:12It's a lot of long view type players that we think could emerge, could be breakout players, could have real ceilings.
0:12It's like a dynasty draft in some ways, but that's the way you should think about redraft broadly.
0:12That's the point of our long view podcast. I mean, that's, that's the reason why I came up with this exercise is
0:12like one, it's kind of a fun gimmick, but I think it, it, it forces you to think through important elements to
0:12fantasy, which is like, who are these, these uncertainty based profiles that have a lot of upside?
0:12What are these contingent levers where if you pull one thing, three or four different assumptions can be made about what would
0:12happen that really impacts the story of the season?
0:12What are the positional groups that you most want to know about how to play it one particular way?
0:12These are all the types of questions we should be asking anyway, when we're making projections or, uh, when we're, you know,
0:12deciding our, our structural strategy of how we want to orient our teams.
0:12Um, thinking through which teams might have hidden upside that we're not necessarily accounting for.
0:12I mean, all that's the stuff that you, you want to get through.
0:12So I think it thinking through, it's kind of a, a fun way to do it, but it gets you onto a
0:12lot of different concepts I think that are, are integral for, for playing redraft fantasy football effectively.
0:12As we now sit here three hours and 16 minutes.
0:12Do our, do our plugs so we can go home.
0:12Yeah. Uh, I mean, look, we're, we're not, we're not going to be leaping to the top of the search engine charts
0:12with a three hour, 16 minute shows. So if you want to support us, get did we to do this?
0:12We would appreciate, um, patron. We were talking pre-show that, uh, we're going to do draft soon.
0:12So we haven't scheduled exactly when those are going to be, but stay tuned.
0:12That's going to happen shortly. Uh, then we'll do some draft episodes.
0:12Those are going to be for the patron subscribers only.
0:12And otherwise, uh, thanks so much for the feedback, you know, uh, download the show, subscribe to the podcast, um, become a
0:12member review, all that good stuff, like buttons, et cetera.
0:12Yeah. For the, just to follow up your point about the patron thing, uh, for anyone who doesn't know the details and
0:12the things that we've talked about, we are going to do a weekly show sort of hell or high water.
0:12You're going to get it from us. They're often going to be long like this.
0:12It is the long view. Um, those will be free.
0:12You'll continue to get those. You don't have to worry about it.
0:12We're going to do the draft shows in addition, occasionally, especially here in August.
0:12We'll probably do a few. We'll probably, I mean, we may do several.
0:12We don't really know yet, but I mean, we want to draft together some, we want to test out some of these things.
0:12We are going to throw those ones behind the paywall.
0:12Ideally it's not blocking off too much information for those of you that feel like we're paywalling stuff.
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0:12Awesome, man. Good show. Yeah.