The Long View Podcast artwork

Drafting Players Who Will Define the 2026 Season

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 7, 2026
Published
Fri, August 7, 2026
28
Player insights
19
Players mentioned
Topics
Charlie KolarChigoziem OkonkwoChris RodriguezJayden DanielsJosh JacobsKenyon SadiqMarShawn LloydStefon DiggsTerry McLaurinAntonio WilliamsBrenton StrangeDalton SchultzDavid NjokuDeebo Samuel
Player analysis

Player insights

28

Antonio Williams

NegativeUsage0:30

Antonio Williams has seen his path to a role become cloudy after the Commanders signed Stefon Diggs. Williams had been working with the third team throughout training camp, and the team's decision to add a veteran receiver suggests they were not satisfied with his development.

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Brenton Strange

PositiveBust4:20

Strange is difficult to draft in redraft formats because he is squeezed by a crowded Jacksonville receiver room and is likely to be used primarily as a between-the-twenties blocker with a small target share.

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Charlie Kolar

NegativeRole3:00

Kolar is expected to serve as the primary Y tight end in early-down 11 personnel sets, though his receiving upside remains speculative given his career high of only 10 receptions; he is considered a viable 18th-round best ball pick due to his strong college profile at Iowa State.

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PositiveDepth Chart8:00

Charlie Kolar is currently the clear tight end one in camp, receiving consistent praise from the coaching staff, which has negatively impacted the outlook for other tight ends on the roster.

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Chigoziem Okonkwo

NegativeUsage0:30

Ben Gretch notes that Chigoziem Okonkwo is one of the players most negatively impacted by the Commanders signing Stefon Diggs, as Diggs will likely absorb targets previously allocated to the tight end and short-area passing game.

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PositiveRole3:00

The source views the addition of Stefon Diggs as a meaningful downgrade for Okonkwo. While previously a target for his potential as a primary receiving tight end, his path to high volume is now blocked by two veteran receivers, and the team's depth at tight end (Bates, Sinatra) may limit his route participation.

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Chris Rodriguez

PositiveRole4:00

Chris Rodriguez is splitting work 50/50 in camp and looks healthy, leading to a bump in his rankings. He is currently in a timeshare with Kene Nwangwu, making him a situation to monitor closely.

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PositiveRole7:00

Rodriguez is fully integrated into practice and is being utilized in situational goal-line work, with reports suggesting he could serve as the team's primary goal-line back.

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Dalton Schultz

PositiveValue10:00

Dalton Schultz is viewed as a more reliable floor option for best-ball rosters compared to Rondale Gadsden, given the current uncertainty surrounding Gadsden's role.

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David Njoku

NegativeRole4:00

Njoku is currently ahead of Gadsden on the depth chart, which is a concern for Gadsden's immediate playing time; additionally, Njoku's own role is questioned after he lost receiving production to Harold Fannin last year and signed a cheap, late-offseason deal.

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Deebo Samuel

NegativeRole6:00

The source believes Samuel is physically limited and likely to be used in a situational, route-limited role, potentially including special teams duties. He is viewed as a player who may provide early-season spike weeks but lacks long-term upside.

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Jalen McMillan

NegativeInjury8:00

McMillan is dealing with a knee injury. While initial reports lacked a timetable, it was later clarified to be a minor bump that should only keep him out for a few days.

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Jayden Daniels

PositiveProjection1:25

Ben Gretch defends Jayden Daniels' performance, highlighting his 68.4% completion rate as a rookie despite playing with an objectively poor receiving corps and his ability to carry the team to the NFC Conference Championship through high-level deep-ball accuracy.

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PositiveProjection4:00

The source is bullish on Jayden Daniels, noting that the addition of Stefon Diggs provides a higher floor for the offense and gives Daniels a reliable weapon, making the quarterback's outlook safer.

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Josh Jacobs

NegativeUsage0:02

Josh Jacobs is a fade candidate for 2026 due to a history of heavy workloads, lingering groin issues from last year, and potential suspension concerns. The source is taking the under on his 260-touch projection.

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NegativeInjury9:00

Jacobs is dealing with a groin injury, which is a re-aggravation of the same issue that hampered him throughout the second half of the 2025 season.

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Kene Nwangwu

NegativeRole4:00

Kene Nwangwu is in a timeshare with Chris Rodriguez. While he was previously ranked aggressively, his stock has been adjusted downward following reports of a 50/50 split in camp.

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Kenyon Sadiq

PositiveInjury6:00

Kenyon Sadiq is being moved down rankings due to a camp injury that may lead to a slower ramp-up for routes in the regular season. Despite his elite combine profile, there are concerns about his reliability and target competition from Mason Taylor.

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NegativeInjury7:00

Sadiq suffered a setback in his recovery from off-season hernia surgery and is expected to miss at least a couple of weeks, though he is still expected back for Week 1.

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MarShawn Lloyd

PositiveSleeper0:02

Marshawn Lloyd is a priority late-round target with an elite prospect profile featuring high breakaway run and evasion rates. Despite reliability concerns regarding health and college volume, he is a superior pick to Woody Marks and Tyrone Tracy. He is currently flashing in camp and is a strong value in managed leagues.

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PositiveSleeper9:00

Lloyd is drawing rave reviews in camp and is considered one of the best late-round running back options available. Given Jacobs' injury history, Lloyd is a high-upside target who should be rising on draft boards.

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Mike Evans

NegativeInjury7:00

Evans is dealing with a mild hamstring strain, but the source does not expect it to impact his availability for Week 1.

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Stefon Diggs

PositiveProjection1:00

The source projects an 18.5% target share for Diggs, citing his age (33) and the challenge of learning a new playbook. While acknowledging his track record, the source argues that his per-route efficiency will likely decline if he runs a full route load, as his previous high efficiency was tied to limited, specialized usage. The source also notes that his production in the playoffs (16.4% target share) and his age suggest he should not be used as a 90% route-share player.

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NegativeProjection1:00

Ben Gretch projects Stefon Diggs for an 18.5% target share in Washington, noting that while some market expectations are above 20%, Diggs is entering his age-33 season and his efficiency metrics in the previous postseason against tough defenses were significantly lower than his regular-season output.

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Tank Bigsby

PositiveBreakout3:00

Tank Bigsby is a rising late-round target who is receiving consistent training camp hype. Despite a disappointing rookie season, he is viewed as a 'preseason legend' and is currently being moved up rankings.

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Terrance Ferguson

PositiveValue4:00

Ferguson is viewed as a preferred late-round tight end option over Gadsden because he faces fewer obstacles to playing time, despite also projecting to be somewhat rotational; he possesses strong draft capital and a solid college profile.

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Terry McLaurin

PositiveProjection1:00

Ben Gretch adjusted Terry McLaurin's target share down to 23% following the Diggs signing but remains optimistic about his ceiling, noting that McLaurin is coming off his most efficient years and may reach 1,200 yards for the first time in a favorable offensive environment.

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PositiveRole1:00

McLaurin is viewed as the clear WR1 for the Commanders, expected to take on the 'X-receiver' role and benefit from his established connection with Jayden Daniels. The source considers him a more stable asset than Diggs due to the two-year age gap and his consistent efficiency.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

2,589
0:00If we could time travel to the end of the season, who are the players we'd most want to know the results for?
0:00That's what we're going to talk about today on The Long View.
0:00I'm Ben Gretch. You can find The Stealing Signals newsletter at bengretch.substack.com.
0:00With me as always is Jacob Sanderson. You can find his Thinking About Thinking newsletter also at jacobsanderson.substack.com.
0:00I gotta get used to the intro. It's too similar.
0:00But we are going today, we have a long, so first of all, it's funny because we just started this pod.
0:00We had this idea for the short view we've joked about it the first couple episodes.
0:00The idea was for us to get through more topics.
0:00I think it's gone well. You've been trying to cut corners.
0:00You're like, hi, we've been on the short view so long.
0:00Yeah, I've been keeping this show on such a tight leash as we've just been going two hours and 15 minutes on average.
0:00But we are starting at a time of year where we told you guys in the first couple episodes the short view is going to get long.
0:00It's going to be very long today. We're going to talk about a lot of different stuff.
0:00You sent over a little bit of some notes of some things that we're going to go over.
0:00I haven't really even looked through them, but it's a long list.
0:00And so I'll kick it to you in a second for the short view stuff.
0:00We'll talk about that for, you know, it'll be like an hour of the show probably.
0:00This may be a long show is what I'm getting at here at the top.
0:00Then we'll go into our long view topic. Our long view topic of the day is going to be a draft between me and Jacob.
0:00We are going to draft players that if we could know at the end of the year, the final results really just
0:00usage like carries or targets, receptions and yards and touchdowns.
0:00If we could know those specific results and we set these parameters, we talked about it, you know, you don't, we don't
0:00get to know everything like target share where you start to learn stuff about the team situation.
0:00We don't get to know things like where they finished, whether they finished RB five, because then you learn a lot of
0:00things about the position and all that. It's just specifically an individual's results.
0:00Who would you want most want to know who and ultimately, obviously the point is who's going to define the season whose
0:00results at this point, if we knew them would help us articulate our strategy better would help us understand how we want
0:00to play the 2026 fantasy football season. This is an idea you pitched to me when we were going over all of
0:00the early stuff for this show that this would be something we could do every August people who listen to my studio.
0:00The dealing bananas podcast with Sean Siegel. No, every, every August we do a show where we predict next year's first and second round ADP.
0:00People tend to love that one. They tend to ask for that one every year.
0:00When's that show going to come? This is a show that we're doing today that we hope to make an annual show here at the long view.
0:00It's a great idea. It's a fun one. It's a great concept.
0:00And so we're going to spend a lot of time on it.
0:00It's probably going to be a long show. We both have our list of guys and we're going to go back and
0:00forth and draft those guys who we think are the most important players back to back and probably snipe each other a little bit.
0:00But before we get into that whole concept, there's a ton of news and notes.
0:00So we got a long show. We got a long show.
0:00We're doing one show a week right now. It's too much to cover to have short shows at this point.
0:00So how are you doing? And what are we looking at for the short view?
0:00I'm doing good. I didn't schedule a date for tonight, so we can go as long as we want.
0:00I won't be cutting you off at this short window of time of 137 minutes.
0:00And I typed up almost a full page of short view topics.
0:00And that was like while I was making the list, I had several other items that I thought about typing in and
0:00like self-cut before it even got there. So we have a ton.
0:00This is obviously not an exhaustive list of every interesting thing that happened at training camp because there's like 100 of those.
0:00But these were, I thought, some of the most interesting ones.
0:00I'm going to run these through in rapid fire just like we did last week.
0:00And then, Ben, you pick whichever. You're going to do all of them rapid fire?
0:00Maybe we should cut this up a little bit.
0:00We'll see. All right. Let's cut it up. Let's cut it up a bit.
0:00All right. That sounds like a good plan. So why don't I start with transaction news?
0:00All right. Okay. Biggest one. The Washington Commanders signed Stefan Diggs yesterday.
0:00That's a huge one. The next one up is what happened right between us recording and our show getting released last week,
0:00which was the 49ers signing Debo Samuel. We haven't gotten a chance to talk about that one.
0:00And then we got some contract extensions. Jonathan Taylor, two-year extension.
0:00Bijan Robinson, three-year extension. Jameer Gibbs is widely expected to get a three-year extension.
0:00So that's the transaction news we'll start with. And then we have a bunch more news to get into after that.
0:00Yeah. The extensions to me, I never really, I guess, care that much about at this time of year.
0:00Good players getting paid. The Diggs thing is fascinating.
0:00I just wrote up a piece today where I reprojected the commanders.
0:00People who subscribe to the newsletter know that I released my full projections at the end of July.
0:00And then I don't update them. Explained a lot about why in the post today.
0:00It would just be too difficult. There's a ton of stuff that changes.
0:00The guys at ETR have a whole team doing it.
0:00You know, and they have a change log. And they're updating their projections every day.
0:00It takes a lot of time. It took me hours this morning to reproject the commanders with Diggs and reconsider all the target shares.
0:00And how the different target depths overlap. One of the interesting things that I came to in going through that process was
0:00Diggs the last couple years has been a little bit of a lower ADOT guy.
0:00About an 8.5 ADOT below the wide receiver average.
0:00He's going to replace routes. The commanders had a lot of deep threats.
0:00Like Traylon Burks, higher ADOT guy. Jalen Lane played to a higher ADOT.
0:00Deami Brown was a little lower a couple years ago when he was on this team.
0:00He's back. But he's typically been a higher ADOT guy.
0:00Diggs is taking targets away from higher ADOT guys.
0:00Bring him to more of a lower ADOT area of the field.
0:00And I think that makes a lot of sense in the sense that Terry McLaurin, your number one, is a high ADOT number one.
0:00He's like a downfield guy. Diggs is a lot more complimentary.
0:00And it actually sort of fits better than how the different wide receivers fit together.
0:00And so one of the other things that happened for me when I was projecting it out again with Diggs was I
0:00took some targets from the running backs. I took some targets from the tight ends.
0:00Some of the other lower ADOT short area stuff.
0:00Certainly Okonkwa was one of the guys I think that gets hit the hardest.
0:00And Williams takes a big hit as well. He's now massive hit.
0:00Massive hit for him. He was looking like a potential interesting number two ball-in-hand guy but maybe gets enough volume.
0:00Now he's a number three and he's a low ADOT ball-in-hand guy.
0:00I don't even think he's that. Yeah. He didn't get a ton of production in college.
0:00I do like that they used him as a rusher, used him as a returner.
0:00What do you mean you don't think he's that?
0:00Well, I liked Williams a decent amount coming out of college.
0:00I just mean the training camp stuff on him had been pretty bearish.
0:00He had not made any impact. He was mostly playing with the third team.
0:00And by all accounts, prior to the digs, their starting three-receiver set was planned to be McLaurin, Burks, Luke McCaffrey in the slot.
0:00But it seemed like Williams still needed to even pass guys like Deami Brown, Van Jefferson, Jalen Lane.
0:00He seemed pretty buried. So I would also say Williams really profiled as more of a slot guy.
0:00If I had to guess, I think that their three-receiver set now would be Diggs in the slot, McLaurin on the outside,
0:00and Burks, I think, probably as their other outside guy is what I would guess.
0:00Are you not hearing a lot about Deami Brown?
0:00No, not that much. The guys that have gotten the bulk of the positive reports, there was a lot of Van Jefferson hype early.
0:00That's cooled a little bit. Burks has gotten constant positive talk, and he's been the starting outside receiver so far.
0:00And then Luke McCaffrey was winning the slot job.
0:00I'm guessing that job probably goes to Diggs, and there'll be some rotation elements.
0:00And I mean, there'll probably be a lot of rotation elements, because they have a lot of guys.
0:00But I suspect now, Williams' path gets pretty cloudy, because first of all, there's really only one spot left in three-receiver sets.
0:00It's clearly going to be McLaurin and Diggs. But I would rather use Diggs in the slot, right?
0:00So I think probably, I'm guessing their third guy is an outside guy.
0:00Otherwise, it would be Williams playing in the slot with Diggs outside.
0:00They just don't have enough playmakers, and they took him on day two.
0:00You don't think they're going to find ways to...
0:00I mean, they didn't really find ways to use...
0:00I think that they would if they liked him.
0:00I just think the signals have been bearish. He can't get any reps with the ones at all.
0:00They're so bad. And then they went out and signed Stephon Diggs, right?
0:00My guess is if they liked more of what they saw with Williams, they might have to sign Stephon Diggs.
0:00They took Luke McCaffrey in the second round. They took Jalen Lane in...
0:01What is it? The third round? I would have to pull up all their...
0:01I think it was McCaffrey in the third and Lane in the fourth or the fifth.
0:01I think the fourth. I'm way too... I'm elevating all the status of all these guys.
0:01Yeah, Lane was a fourth round pick. I'm pulling it up now.
0:01McCaffrey was a third. Ben Sinat was the second.
0:01Yeah. But their recent draft capital into skilled position players, they've not developed any of them or used any of them.
0:01It's weird. I mean, obviously, Ja'Cory Kroski-Meritt being a glaring example as a seventh rounder who had 800 yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie.
0:01But kind of weird. Now they go out and they use another third round pick on Antonio Williams.
0:01I mean, when you say he's running with a third team and stuff...
0:01I mean, we're two weeks into camp. Yeah, we're two weeks into camp.
0:01It's just like... For a guy who's... Yeah, like...
0:01I don't know. For a guy who goes in round three, I mean, the base rate for a round three pick is not great.
0:01So I just prefer to hear something positive. You know?
0:01Yeah. It's tough. Yeah. We're basically talking about whether Antonio Williams would have had a role if Diggs hadn't signed.
0:01We're off to a great start on the short view.
0:01I guess that's what I'm saying is, like, it wasn't going...
0:01It wasn't pointing very positively for him to have an immediate role without Diggs.
0:01Anyway. And then they just added Diggs, which probably continues to speak to them not being wowed, right?
0:01Like, for instance, you know, we're going to talk...
0:01I have both of these guys on the list to talk about later.
0:01But, like, there's been reports that the Ravens have been impressed enough with Jacoby Lane and, to some extent, Surratt, that they're
0:01not looking to add a receiver anymore. There's been reports that the Patriots were looking to replace Julian Hill with a veteran tight end.
0:01They've been so impressed with Eli Raritan, that's no longer a priority for them, right?
0:01The commanders reached the opposite conclusion. They got to watch Antonio Williams for a couple months and decided we should sign Stephon Diggs.
0:01It's not going to define his career, but, like, that's...
0:01It's not what you would want a year to me.
0:01Yeah. I mean, I'm going to fade... I'm going to fade that entire line of logic, personally.
0:01I think every team does that stuff differently, and we do way too much comparing.
0:01Like, I mean, I do think it's interesting that the Ravens came to that conclusion, and the Lane hype is interesting, and
0:01I do think the Raritan hype is interesting with the Patriots.
0:01But I just... I mean, I'm not going to make strong conclusions about Antonio Williams' career based on the fact that they brought in Diggs.
0:01I'm not, you know, I got a career, but I think he's a tough guy to draft in 2026.
0:01Sure. Yeah, he's a tough guy to draft. But as far as Diggs and the rest of the guys and how that all fits, it is really interesting.
0:01Yeah, we're getting into just a nuance. It's a really interesting time right now.
0:01One of the things I was thinking might come up or I was going to ask you about is how if you're
0:01getting these comments from people, from subscribers, from readers, from whoever, you do a lot more on social media, from social media people where...
0:01I mean, I feel like we are in you-can-just-say-shit season.
0:01Like, people are just saying whatever they want. I wrote that piece, and I got...
0:01The reason I'm saying that is one of the replies...
0:01It's like Mad Libs. So one of the replies I got was...
0:01Talked a little bit about what I said about some of the receivers, and then it was like, but none of the
0:01receivers are going to be able to be good if Jane Daniels doesn't get better at throwing accurate passes or something.
0:01Yeah, no. If you like... Sometimes I read the replies to things, and it's just like...
0:01It's like utter nonsense. Yeah. And it's... Yeah, like...
0:01Now, typically, I don't mean this from thinking about thinking subscribers.
0:01The vast majority of comments that I get from subscribers are, like, pretty reasonable.
0:01But, yeah, if you want to go on social media, I mean, you'll just get, like...
0:01That's where it's the worst. But, like... Yeah. Just to defend the Jane Daniels point, like, this is the Longview pod.
0:01I mean, he struggled last year. He was hurt for most of the year.
0:01He only had 244 dropbacks. The year prior, he made it to the NFC Conference Championship.
0:01It basically carried the team there through just throwing dimes on fourth downs all throughout the year.
0:01People thought Dan Quinn was, like, this fourth down genius because Jane Daniels kept making him right with dime after dime.
0:01He went into Detroit and upset the Lions with, like...
0:01He hit Deami Brown on a huge play on a great throw down the field.
0:01Like, the whole thing was predicated on the fact that Jane Daniels was throwing such great deep balls that he was allowing...
0:01Like, creating so much space around the line of scrimmage and allowing for their, you know, run-pass option stuff around the line of scrimmage to work.
0:01He was... He completed 68.4% of his passes as a rookie in the NFL with bad receivers.
0:01Like, with objectively bad receivers. Yeah, he completely carried that team.
0:01It was Terry McLaurin and, like, a bunch of absolute goofs.
0:01Who else was even on that team? It was...
0:01Deami Brown was, like, their number two. Zach Ertz.
0:01Deami Brown was, like, legitimately their number two. Zach Ertz.
0:01The running backs were B-Rob and Eckler. And Austin Eckler.
0:01Yeah. And who... I don't even remember who was their wide receiver.
0:01It was, like, some rotation of, like, random guys.
0:01It was, like... McCaffrey was the rookie that year.
0:01McCaffrey was the rookie that didn't do anything. I had some other dust ball veteran on the team.
0:01Was Curtis Samuel still a part of that team?
0:01I have no idea. Oh, my God. That seems impossible.
0:01Who was it? I'm going to look it up.
0:01I'm going to look it up. Commander's pro football reference.
0:01Olamide Zakiya. 64 targets that year. Olamide Zakiya. Noah Brown.
0:01Everyone was... Everyone thought Noah Brown was super good.
0:01Oh, God. How is it that... Jameson Crowder was on that team.
0:01Jesus. How is it that the Commanders seem to just consistently have, like, eight different, like, guys who are, like, Noah Brown or, like, Noah Brown adjacent individuals?
0:01Like, it's just a constant rotation of that. Yeah.
0:01That's why I'm not worried about Antonio Williams because they have 97 dudes on the team.
0:01Like, they have so many guys to get reps for.
0:01Hey, he's working with a third team. He's already passed, like, seven guys.
0:01Like, he's doing great. Oh, my God. No. But, no, Diggs, as far as actually, like, how I projected it and how
0:01I see this going and Commanders signing Diggs, I don't...
0:01I moved Terry McLaurin's target share down, I think, 1.5 percentage points.
0:01I think I had 24.5% and went down to 23.0.
0:01That's, like, a meaningful drop. But I also... So, some of that was because I had his ADOT coming down a little.
0:01I had him doing a little bit more in the short and intermediate range because, as I talked about, some of the other receivers, more higher ADOT guys.
0:01Like, Luke McCaffrey, not a huge target earner if he's going to be in the slot, etc.
0:01I now moved McLaurin's ADOT a bit higher. That was going to correlate a little bit with more per-target efficiency.
0:01It's a little bit less overall volume, and he comes down from what I had as a pretty lofty projection for him.
0:01It's still strong. Like, he still looks like a solid pick in the range he was going in.
0:01I had him as a value before from kind of a projection standpoint.
0:01Now, there are more upside plays, wide receiver plays in that range.
0:01But I do think McLaurin is a pretty safe receiver in that range.
0:01So, I've always been pretty out on McLaurin. I've talked about him as, like, very good but not elite.
0:01And one of the reasons I've kind of come back around to him is the ceiling for wide receiver has come down in a way that now McLaurin's...
0:01Like, his inability... He's never had a 1,200-yard season.
0:01Well, I do think he may have his first 1,200-yard season if he stays healthy.
0:01He's coming off two of his better years with Jane Daniels.
0:01Last year was a partial year, but had the best yards per out run of his career, if I'm not mistaken.
0:01Had some career highs. Maybe it was targets per out.
0:01And he's been efficient on a yards per target basis both the last couple years still, too.
0:01He turns 31 in September. He is getting a little older, but he's a good player.
0:01He's an efficient player. And now that he's played in a little bit of a better offense for him and better QBs,
0:01we're seeing, like, a little bit more meat on the bone.
0:01Now, I don't think he's going to magically get 150 targets.
0:01That's never been his game. But I do think there's room for him to have that 1,200-yard season get a little bit better.
0:01And in today's NFL, in 2026, if he has that 1,200-yard season, that's meaningfully better than it was four or five years
0:01ago when I was first, like, anti-Terry McLaurin for people that have been, like, subscribers of my newsletter and stuff.
0:01So it's working two ways. I think he's got a little bit higher ceiling than he's ever really had because the situation is pretty nice for him.
0:01And the ceiling at wide receivers coming back toward Terry McLaurin a little bit.
0:01I think he's draftable in that range. I don't think he's, like, a huge target.
0:01Diggs, to me, winds up – he wound up, like, just above the other veteran receivers right where there's that break in
0:01the wide receiver window where the last rookies are going.
0:01And so I had him, like, just above Jalen Koch or just above Jacoby Myers and Romeo Dobbs and those types.
0:01I did have Diggs above those guys. But I see him as sort of a capped ceiling type.
0:01Some people I'm seeing – You'd have him a tier below, like Chris Godwin.
0:01Yes. And I'm seeing some people that are putting him closer to McLaurin and target earning.
0:01I think my perception of it would be McLaurin's been on the offense for two years.
0:01Diggs signed in August. And Diggs turns 33 in November.
0:01He's two years older, and it's a meaningful two years.
0:01He had a really good year in New England last year.
0:01One of the things about the per-route stats that everyone's saying on Diggs and how strong they were, he was horrible in
0:01the postseason in terms of, like, yards per-route run relative to that.
0:01He was at, like, a 2.5 yards per-route run in the regular season.
0:01You add his postseason, he comes down to, like, 2.0-ish.
0:01It brought him down a ton, and that's when they played the four tough defenses.
0:01I think that's really relevant. You had a big postseason sample of four games playing tough defenses.
0:01The only time they played tough defenses, New England famously had a really easy defensive schedule last year.
0:01Drake May, for example, led the league in EPA per play throughout the regular season and then really struggled in the postseason.
0:01I mean, he was, like, 11th out of the 14 starting QBs in EPA per play, and he won three games in the postseason.
0:01So, anyway, the Patriots struggles as a passing offense in the postseason, and Diggs struggles as a number one to go win
0:01against tougher secondaries and legit number one cornerbacks. I don't think it's being discussed enough when people just focus on the regular season data.
0:01I don't think they'll have to face number one cornerbacks, though, in this spot, which will be more beneficial.
0:01For sure. But in terms of, yes, absolutely. In terms of what Diggs still is, I'm hearing a lot of taking last
0:01year and saying, and he's going into a great spot.
0:01So, I'm just going to, like, start last year and then arrow up from there.
0:01And what I'm trying to say is, first of all, I don't think you're looking, like, for people that are just looking
0:01at the really good per route numbers in season, a regular season, I don't think they're getting the full picture of last year.
0:01Second of all, when I talk about him turning 33 this year, and when I talk about having McLaurin meaningfully higher in
0:01target share, like, I ended up projecting Diggs for an 18.5% target share.
0:01I've seen some numbers above 20%. Maybe that's more fair.
0:01He's got a better target earning track record. But again, he's turning 33.
0:01McLaurin's turning 31. And that's a big two-year gap in terms of those age cliffs at wide receiver.
0:01And then the point I'm trying to drive home about where we're starting on Diggs.
0:01The numbers last year were fantastic. I was in on Diggs.
0:01I had him on a few teams, and I was excited about the way that he played last year.
0:01I still think we should have been regressing his last year regardless.
0:01If he was in New England, we should have been regressing.
0:01They played only good offenses or defenses, and then when they played tough ones, it was a real struggle.
0:01And now you're going to a new team. You're joining a new system.
0:01You're learning a whole new playbook in August, a month before the season.
0:01I think it's a little bit of an uphill climb for him.
0:01I think giving him an 18.5% target share for the year acknowledges that Stephon Diggs has always been a stud, but he's 33 now.
0:01And he's stepping into a new spot. And yeah, I mean, he's going to beat out Okonkwo and Williams and all these other guys.
0:01Traylon Burks for targets for the most part. I don't think he's coming for Terry McLaurin in a major way.
0:01And McLaurin has that two-year connection with Jane Dinos, has been really efficient the last couple years.
0:01I don't think it's good for McLaurin, but in some ways, it's nice to have another show in town as well.
0:01So anyway, there's layers to this. Yeah, I'm probably more optimistic a little bit on Diggs than you might be on the target chair stuff.
0:01You flagged the defensive schedule and the playoff regression, which I think are important points.
0:01The other point I would put that I think I've seen some people say is, you know, he had all these great per-route numbers.
0:01And now what if this year off the ACL, he runs all the routes?
0:01And my contention would be that he probably will have worse per-route numbers.
0:01I mean, that's the case for literally everyone in the NFL, I think, is that per-route efficiency on partial route rolls is
0:01always inversely, or at least I should say on the aggregate, is inversely correlated.
0:01It's one of the biggest mistakes that people make.
0:01And especially for a guy like Diggs, who when you're limiting him, they were using him in spots where they wanted him to go win in specific spots.
0:01And he was like the first read. You're getting a really high rate of first reads and stuff.
0:01It's without question in my mind that if he ran full routes last year, his targets per-route and his yards per-route run would have been lower.
0:01He would have been running more complex concepts where he was just out there running empty routes.
0:01They took those off his plate. Anyway, continue. Yeah, I mean, that's pretty much what I was going to say.
0:01So to put some numbers to it, he ran the 419 routes in the regular season, 23.9% targets per route.
0:01In the four playoff games, 16.4%. I mean, that's way down.
0:01Well, and he played playoffs, right? So, I mean, you're getting him because they wanted to rely on him a bit more.
0:01And I think you're seeing that inverse correlation show up already.
0:01And I don't know what Washington's plan is. Like, they had Debo, who was kind of a similarly aging player that they
0:01didn't consistently use as a full-time player when Terry McCorn was healthy.
0:01I mean, I think it would be wise of the commanders probably to not use digs on, like, a 90% routes basis.
0:01We saw a similar thing with Keenan last year with the Chargers.
0:01Had a really high targets per-route run. But he had a pretty low route rate compared to that targets per-route run.
0:01And it got lower throughout the course of the year.
0:01When we're dealing with older players, I just think that it's logical coaching to say, like, no, you're not playing 900 snaps at age 33.
0:01That's nonsense, especially if they're a team that has ambitions of trying to make the playoffs and trying to keep a guy
0:01like digs healthy to be helpful in that playoff push.
0:01So, I do think someone else can get routes.
0:01Yeah, to piggyback on what you're saying and kind of pull it back into the long view thing, when I was trying
0:01to get people on digs last year, a lot of people were really out on him from the Texans situation the year prior.
0:01Which, again, that's two years back now. And an ACL ago.
0:01And an ACL ago. And he was fairly old at that point anyway.
0:01But that was a situation where he had more target competition.
0:01He was not the number one. And he was kind of running all of the routes.
0:01Now, he is good. The important point on digs and the point I was making at the time as well is, like, his target spread have been great.
0:01Every year. And they were good. And that short stint with the Texans, 23.0% solid 270 routes that he ran there.
0:01He had a 1.84 yards per out run. That's good.
0:01Behind Nico Collins. And he really kind of beat out Tank Dell that year.
0:01That's right before Tank Dell had his serious injury as well.
0:01I think if you're looking for a bull case for digs.
0:01And, I mean, it's a lot to ask because it's two years later.
0:01But I think if you're looking for a bull case for digs this year, it's that he can repeat that 2024 Texans season.
0:01And it's a better spot. You have McLaurin kind of playing the role of the Nico Collins, taking on that ex-receiver role, the number one receiver responsibilities.
0:01Digs gets to work off that in the slot.
0:01I mean, part of the fun with digs is, like, he always had a game that doesn't surprise me that he's aged pretty gracefully.
0:01Because he's so technically refined. He has great hands.
0:01He has a good feel for space. So, like, those are the things that I do think keep with you as you grow.
0:01That's why I think we've seen, you know, Devontae Adams has regressed but is still very good.
0:01But Keenan Allen has remained a productive player. And it's an archetype of player that can age better.
0:01But, like, digs hasn't really been a downfield guy since, like, 2021, 2022.
0:01I guess 2022 would be the last season he was a really effective downfield receiver.
0:01We saw that taper off in 2023 in Buffalo.
0:01And then it's just not really been a big part of his road diet the last couple of years.
0:01I think he'll be helpful. The guy that helps the most is Jaden Daniels.
0:01Because he was one 31-year-old receiver having another injury away from his number one receiver being, like, Traylon Burks.
0:01Yeah. And so, like, getting him another real weapon is a huge help.
0:01I think he's a huge target for me. And then I agree it's a downgrade for Chig.
0:01But it's not over. I still have some Chigakonkwo interest.
0:01It's two fragile over 30 receivers above him. He's been drawing rave reviews.
0:01I view him, like, a little bit worse. But similarly to Jaden Johnson.
0:01You don't like tight ends like him. I like tight ends like him if there's no one else who's credible who's going to block on the roster.
0:01Oh, is Ben Sinatra not a good blocker? And John Bates?
0:01I just don't know that, like, these guys are, like, guys.
0:01Oh, I think they like those guys. They gave Bates, like, a real contract.
0:01And Sinatra actually very limited, like, routes and stuff.
0:01But was, like, an efficient receiver at times last year.
0:01I think they think they're deep at tight end.
0:01You don't think? I mean, maybe. We'll see. I've been pretty up.
0:01I mean, I'm less optimistic now. Before, I felt like I didn't even care.
0:01Like, because I felt like Chig. I mean, all the reports on Chig where he's going to be their number two if they don't sign someone.
0:01And I felt like they were so thin at receiver that they were probably going to play a lot of 12.
0:02That was my take on Chig, too. So, I think it varies.
0:02Yeah, I think it is a meaningful downgrade. But I still don't think that they have another tight end on the roster
0:02who gives them, like, an all-around Y profile. Like, Bates is purely a blocker.
0:02And I don't know. Is with Diggs and McLaurin, is that good enough to say we're just good playing a pure blocking tight end?
0:02I don't know what to make of Sinatra. He's barely played.
0:02Like, maybe. No, I don't think those guys are going to play over Okonkwo.
0:02I just think that Okonkwo's routes were probably going to be somewhat limited by those guys being on the roster.
0:02And then just doing some different sub-packages at times.
0:02And the case for him was going to be a really high targets per route.
0:02Like, the Dalton Kincaid case from last year. Like, really high targets per route.
0:02And you hit on a lot of efficiency. And you're the clear number two.
0:02And, like, it's pretty spread. But you separate from different.
0:02The case I was making for Okonkwo, I don't know why.
0:02I guess it's kind of a pointless argument now because the case has changed dramatically, I think, with Diggs.
0:02But the case I was making for Okonkwo previously was you look at Jawan Johnson last year as a guy who previously
0:02used to be a partial route to tight end.
0:02And I felt like they had such a dire need for playmaking that they were basically like, we're willing to live with
0:02slightly inferior blocking because we really need to play someone at the tight end position that can get us receiving value.
0:02Because we don't have it anywhere else outside of Chris Alave on this roster.
0:02Right? Their wide receiver two is like Devon Vele.
0:02So I thought we would get a situation with Okonkwo where they're going to play a lot of 12 to get him on the field in the slot.
0:02And I thought he was going to play a career high amount of snaps at 11 because I just felt like they
0:02needed playmakers so badly that they were going to have to find it with him.
0:02That, I think, has scaled down a little bit.
0:02But I don't know. Where would you rank him?
0:02I still prefer him. That's not in the strange Jawan range for me.
0:02That's not crazy far off of what I'm thinking either, just to be clear.
0:02But, yeah, I have him right behind Jawan. You kind of said behind Jawan.
0:02I have him right behind Jawan as well. I think Jawan's an easier bet because we saw it last year.
0:02We saw all the routes. We saw him. He was third in the league at tight end in receiving yardage.
0:02Chig, I moved down a little bit, but only to tight end 18.
0:02So, I mean, he's still whatever. I mean, I just don't think I would.
0:02I kind of had him as a target, and I don't think I would care.
0:02I did have him as a pretty big target with the caveat that I'm not that surprised that they signed someone.
0:02But, yeah, I had him as a target and was prepared to make him a bit of a turbo target if they
0:02actually didn't end up signing Stefan Diggs. Two last things I want to circle back on that you said.
0:02The Daniels point, completely agree with. I mentioned this in my projection write-up.
0:02I'm bullish on Daniels. It made me a lot more optimistic about...
0:02I'm about to sneeze, but I think it's going away.
0:02It made me a lot more optimistic. I thought it was about to come.
0:02It made me a lot more optimistic that my bullish projection on him had a higher floor, basically.
0:02Right? And that's the way that you described it.
0:02I didn't necessarily get a lot higher of a projection for anyone who was curious because I reprojected the whole offense.
0:02But that was in part because I was already fairly bullish on Daniels.
0:02Yeah. It felt a little bit fragile. It feels a lot safer at this point.
0:02Diggs was still a very efficient receiver last year.
0:02And both of the last two years with the Texans and the Patriots had a really high catch rate.
0:02Both years has been a quarterback's friend the last couple years.
0:02The other note I wanted to make, because you said that the Bull case was sort of what happened with the Texans two years ago.
0:02There were a lot of people that didn't like the stuff with the Texans.
0:02That is, ADOT came way down, etc. And there's so many people looking at the Patriots thing as so favorable with the
0:02really high per route stuff, even at a limited number of routes, that I do want to emphasize part of the point
0:02that I think we're both making, I'm certainly making, about the Patriots' role last year with the limited route stuff and that
0:02there would have been empty routes if he would have been out there more.
0:02Is that in some ways you're just talking about the raw numbers.
0:02I mean, in every way that actually matters for fantasy football.
0:02We're talking about catches and yards. While he was with Houston in eight games, including the game that he left early with
0:02an injury, he averaged 5.9 receptions per game and 62 yards per game.
0:02While he was with the Patriots last year, just in the regular season when he was actually doing very well, he averaged 5.0 receptions per game.
0:02That's about a full reception per game less. 59.6.
0:02He was more efficient per target, closer in yards per game.
0:02Just 2.4 yards per game less. A lot more yards per reception, which was nice to see that he had a little
0:02bit more bursts coming back and all those things.
0:02But in terms of per game averages, I bet a lot of our listeners would not guess that he was better with
0:02Houston than he was with the Patriots. Yeah, I mean, I think it's a combination of the per route stuff.
0:02I think it's also just people remember that that was the year there was a lot of discussion about which Houston receiver would be the one.
0:02And it was like an open three-way conversation. And then it resolved so immediately and so decisively to be Nico Collins.
0:02And people are obsessed with who is the one and who is not.
0:02And so I think people remember Diggs being not the one.
0:02And then last year he was the one. And so surely it's better to be the one.
0:02It's a good point. It's a good point. And then driving home that that's more sort of narrative-driven.
0:02The one role he was in last year, very meaningful.
0:02And it was good that he played really well.
0:02I still think Stephon Diggs is very, very good.
0:02And I still think you can draft him. But in terms of what his actual upside is for this year, you do have to understand.
0:02The last couple years, the stats have fallen off.
0:02There are some limitations. He is 33. 33. Anyway, what is our next short feed?
0:02For 32 minutes in. Yeah, but we were going to talk about Diggs for a long time for sure.
0:02That's the biggest one. Did you have anything on Debo?
0:02Yeah, you also mentioned Debo. I don't have a lot on him.
0:02I think he's bad for Stribbling because Stribbling was a ball-in-hand guy.
0:02Debo's a ball-in-hand guy. I think there's more overlap there than there was with Stribbling and Pearsall.
0:02That's my main take. It hurts the Stribbling case.
0:02We talked about Stribbling. Who would you rather draft?
0:02Debo or Stribbling? Oh. I sort of don't want to draft either.
0:02But probably Stribbling. Yeah, I think I had it.
0:02I hope my rankings reflect this because I gave this take.
0:02But I'll double-check my rankings now to make sure.
0:02I think in a redraft format, I'd rather do Stribbling.
0:02In a best ball format, I'd probably rather do Debo.
0:02Oh, I think I would flip that. Because I think Debo's going to get a lot of early volume, but probably break down.
0:02And Stribbling's sort of a late-season hammer. And I think in best ball, those late-season hammers...
0:02I think if I draft Stribbling and redraft, I'll probably end up cutting him.
0:02I just care so much more about... Interesting. I guess my attitude on it is I don't think Debo...
0:02I think he's really limited at this point physically.
0:02And I think he's probably going to be somewhat route-limited to cater to those physical limitations.
0:02Like they've been talking about using him on special teams.
0:02So I don't think it's that possible for him to be a massive hit to the degree that I need.
0:02Talking about using him on special teams doesn't sound like limiting him.
0:02It sounds like they think he's... Well, like... 25!
0:02Oh, I interpreted that the other way. I think if a big part of their plan for him is to use him
0:02as a punt returner, kick returner, that doesn't sound like they're also going to use him on 100% of the routes.
0:02I feel like they're going to use him a little bit more situationally.
0:02But we'll see. Maybe. I mean, maybe they will.
0:02I mean, that's an interesting interpretation too. Maybe they will.
0:02But for me with Debo, it's like... In a managed league, if I did end up drafting him late or something, I'd
0:02get a free peek at what the role is.
0:02And maybe he actually has... Because we're going to get more information early in the season on him than Stribling probably now.
0:02I mean, I still think Stribling is going to start for them.
0:02Right? I think that's probably the three wide receiver set is Evan, Stribling, Debo.
0:02Okay. So, and I think it's... So, I don't think it'll be a huge shift.
0:02Like, I think Stribling... I think it's still arrow up big time on Stribling versus what it was with Pearsall.
0:02Because I think now... I think Stribling... I don't think Stribling was going to play in two wide receiver sets over Pearsall.
0:02I do think he plays in two wide receiver sets over Debo.
0:02Okay. And for me, if I'm doing a redraft...
0:02I agree. Neither of them are massive redraft targets.
0:02But I just think if one of these guys is going to be the big hit, I probably would just draft the younger player.
0:02I don't think Debo really has big hit in this range of outcomes.
0:02But like Best Ball, where I'm really floor focused...
0:02I mean, Stribling could be like Jalen Polk. Right?
0:02He could just be a literal nothing. Whereas Debo...
0:02I think we're leaving here with something. So, late round wide receiver.
0:02Like, if Debo gets me a few spike weeks early in the season, helps me advance.
0:02Like, he's done his job. Yeah. I just... I feel like I would rather have that exact thing you just said in manage.
0:02Because I may actually start him while he's running good.
0:02And then if he gets hurt or whatever or fades, then I just cut him and move on.
0:02You know? In Best Ball, you don't want those zeros in the money weeks.
0:02You know? If he does... If he only gets you a few spike weeks early, like...
0:02Yeah, maybe that's an okay advance rate player. But it's not that great for Best Ball.
0:02You want guys that are scoring in 15, 16, 17, right?
0:02I mean, you do. But you got... To me, it's just more of a floor-based game.
0:02Like, you just don't want guys who are not contributing at any point in the season.
0:02And, like, Stribling, I think, has... Like, has a risk of being, like, effectively a non-factor.
0:02Yeah. This is actually a really interesting discussion. Because I hear that point, too.
0:02All right. Let's move to the rest of the short view.
0:02All right. So, we got a bunch more. I'm now going to move to part two, which is injury news.
0:02All right. So, this will cover both new injuries and returns from injuries.
0:02So, we've got... The San Francisco substation is just continuing to deal out blows.
0:02Mike Evans has missed time with a mild hamstring strain.
0:02Doesn't sound like it's anything to be worried about for week one.
0:02De'Jon Stribling missed about a week with hamstring tightness.
0:02But I just saw he was back today. Kalen Black has been missing time.
0:02Jordan James is still out. Christian Kirk is still out.
0:02It's crazy what's going on in San Francisco. Kenyon Sadiq.
0:02This one, I think, is probably the most worrying one on my list, in my opinion, at least.
0:02He suffered a setback from recovery from an off-season hernia surgery.
0:02It's expected to cost him at least a couple weeks.
0:02They do expect him to be back for week one.
0:02Chris Rodriguez. Positive injury news. He is now back fully integrated at practice.
0:02He's operating in team drills as well. And they had mentioned that they were using him on situational stuff where they were backed up with their own one.
0:02Your boy, John Shipley, is predicting him to be the goal line running back after he's drawn positive reviews in his return.
0:02We're back to bad injury news. Devonta Smith, Makai Lemon are each dealing with mild hamstring strains at Eagles camp.
0:02Jalen McMillan has a knee injury. And in classic Todd Bowles fashion, he said there's no timetable for return.
0:02And that was later clarified to be like, he'll probably be back in a couple days.
0:02He's fine. It's not a ligament injury. He got a bump on his knee, for the record.
0:02Yeah, it was just like Todd Bowles. I mean, this is the same guy who said Bucky Irving would be back sometime in the summer or fall.
0:02But he goes out and says knee injury, no timetable to return.
0:02Which makes me think he tore his ACL. Tore his ACL, yeah.
0:02Yeah, and then later it's like, oh, he probably has a bruised knee.
0:02Maybe say the timetable. Maybe say in the next couple weeks.
0:02Right. There's clearly a timetable. He just bumped his knee.
0:02It's a short timetable. It's insane. I mean, imagine Todd Bowles being the producer of this podcast.
0:02And he'd be like, how long is the short view going to take this week?
0:02There's no timetable. There's no timetable for that. Oh, man.
0:02Jalen Waddell originally was reported as muscle tightness. Now it's being reported as a mild strain.
0:02And Sean Payton said he would miss four to five days.
0:02So I guess not a huge concern, but he was spotted limping at practice today.
0:02And then Josh Jacobs was not in pads. He's working with the rehab trainer today.
0:02That's later been called a groin injury. If you recall, that's what Jacobs dealt with through the whole second half of last season was a groin injury.
0:02So a bit of a re-injury perhaps there. And Marshawn Lloyd just continues to draw absolute rave reviews.
0:02Seems like every single practice there's a news hit about a really impressive play that Marshawn Lloyd made.
0:02So that's the injury stuff. What sticks out top of the list for you?
0:02Well, Lloyd's profile is incredibly strong coming out of college.
0:02He's been hurt a bunch. People are going to be sick of it.
0:02I think he's one of the best late-round running back options you can find.
0:02He should be screaming up your board. Because, I mean, the Jacobs stuff all last year, Emmanuel Wilson got multiple starts as a result.
0:02Yeah. As a result of this injury. This injury.
0:02Sean Siegel just did a really good injury deep dive over at Rotovis that I really enjoyed.
0:02He was an AI to do some deep injury research.
0:02One of the things that he found was, like, last year, injuries are the thing that's not priced in the most are, like, nagging injuries the year prior.
0:02Like, season-ending injuries get priced in. Like, neighbors was getting pushed down far enough, right?
0:02And he did this before the Pearsall thing. But I was like, man, the Pearsall thing is a great example of one of the things that can happen.
0:02You don't get surgery. It's supposed to heal naturally.
0:02It doesn't. Well, crap. The Jacobs thing, man. He had this groin injury last year.
0:02This guy's had a lot of work over the years.
0:02Obviously not fully healthy over the course of an offseason.
0:02And you start to think about how this could play into.
0:02This guy's had 260 touches, I think it is, all seven years of his career.
0:02Does he get 260 touches this year? I mean, I'm taking the under on that right now.
0:02I mean, he might be suspended. That's still ongoing.
0:02That's the other thing going on. Lloyd's the only show in town behind him.
0:02We talked about Chris Brooks and we talked about the running backs.
0:02But, I mean, when I did the projections for these guys, I was like, one of these backup running backs should be getting drafted.
0:02Looked into the Brooks thing a little more and was like, well, Brooks isn't the profile.
0:02So I said, like, yeah, Lloyd's a thing. I mean, for anyone who listened to the ETE pod or read the offseason
0:02stealing signal series I was writing up. I was like, look, Lloyd is a thing.
0:02You've got the injury concerns with him. Well, now it's neon lights that he's a thing.
0:02It's very, very clear. People are still going to be a little concerned from an injury perspective.
0:02But I've seen some of the social media posts that people are like, oh, man, like everyone's overstating how great Marshawn Lloyd looks.
0:02Like there's a reason that you've heard that name Marshawn Lloyd is a sleeper the last couple of years.
0:02Like his prospect profile. Yeah, he's a real prospect.
0:02Yeah. He was legitimately interesting. He was a bit of a boom bust prospect.
0:02But like, hey, man, if you're going in the 180s, I don't give a crap about the bust.
0:02Huge breakaway run rate. Yeah. Huge breakaway run rate.
0:02Huge evasion rate. This is a guy who makes, like, it's like Ken Walker.
0:02Like it's, it's, I was, I was comparing him to some other dudes.
0:02Like he has a better miss tackles force per touch rate and better breakaway run rate than Jeremiah Love.
0:02Like Jeremiah Love has more overall work. He has more yards after contact.
0:02He has a better receiving profile. He's a better overall back.
0:02But like, that's the kind of thing that Marshawn Lloyd's profile is, is like, it's an elite tackle breaking and explosive run profile.
0:02There should be no shock that he's flashing in camp, that everyone's saying he looks fast.
0:02There should be no shock. Yeah. I mean, the reason why I say it's boom bust is if people are like listening
0:02and, and haven't paid attention to the 2024 running back class in a while is, is just, he didn't get a ton of work in college.
0:02Wasn't a ton of receiving volume in college, had fumbling issues in college.
0:02So generally it was like, this guy is super talented.
0:02Ben mentioned all the great, um, sort of like per touch stats that he had, which were really positive.
0:02And then it's just, you know, is this a guy that can be relied upon?
0:02Can he, can he be relied upon to pull onto the ball?
0:02Can you relied upon to stay healthy? Can he be relied upon to keep those per touch rates up if he gets
0:02more volume and all that stuff are very legitimate concerns?
0:02Like Trey Benson had kind of a similar profile and it hasn't, I was thinking of him.
0:02Yeah. It obviously hasn't panned out for Lloyd yet for two years, but like, this is a chance to get in on a existing, really strong talent.
0:02And it's encouraging to hear how good he looks at camp because part of the concern with a guy like Lloyd is
0:02like, you know, when you haven't really played football for two years, like, is that impressive stuff still there or has it
0:02just gone pretty, pretty great to hear that it's still there.
0:02It's healthy now and that he's looking great. Um, so yeah, I think he's a massive priority.
0:02Great call. The, uh, on. Yeah. Yeah. Well said.
0:02I would, I would just, um, echo that point that you made that, you know, for all the positive, I was saying
0:02he's, he's a really good late round target while he's cheap.
0:02He's not necessarily someone because of some of those reliability concerns that were even there in the prospect profile, someone to chase way, way, way up.
0:02But like, if you're in home leagues and stuff, this is the kind of guy you take at the back of your,
0:02um, the back of your running back room in, in a home league draft in around 14 or whatever.
0:02Cause they're not going to totally, he's not going to go that high.
0:02Um, I mean, he, I, I think he is a straight up better pick to me than like Woody Marks and Tyrone Tracy.
0:02You go like 40 picks ahead of them. It's a way better pick in, in managed.
0:02Yeah. I mean, I think definitely than Woody Marks.
0:02Woody Marks has no efficiency upside. Even if he gets to work, like, what are you going to get out of Woody Marks?
0:03Anyway, nothing. See, Rod, see Rod back at practice.
0:03You talked about the John Shipley thing. I want to talk about that because, um, I, I mentioned the Shipley thing and
0:03I was like, he was, the whole reason I brought it up was like, I was like, God, the tank Bixby thing.
0:03Was, was so tilting last year, all the hype, et cetera, et cetera.
0:03But I want to believe it this time about facial too.
0:03He is just like the greatest preseason player of all time.
0:03I'm pretty sure. I think just certain guys live for training camp.
0:03Cause take things. He's also getting constant, uh, training camp hype this year.
0:03He got concentrating camp hype this rookie year, even when he was terrible, like tank B, tank Bixby in August is Jim Brown.
0:03This is, this is the tank Bixby year to be in.
0:03Yeah. I'm in, I'm in on Bixby. Um, just like, I'm moving Marshawn Lloyd up my rankings right now.
0:03I need a, I need a second. Um, the, uh, the, um, cause because I, I, I have Bixby up my ranks and I realized, you know what?
0:03Lloyd needs to be up, up there ahead of Bixby even, but both these guys are, those are my two favorite sort of late round running backs.
0:03Still, they're both rising. I don't think they're going to be late round running backs for long and competitive stuff.
0:03But, um, C rod, the, the, the whole shipping thing was that I was saying all that stuff about Bixby.
0:03And then I was like, but I want to believe it this time on basial tootin.
0:03Um, there was this idea that C rod might not be fully healthy for week one.
0:03They're like that, that came out. So I released my, my running back tears the other day and I had tootin pretty aggressively.
0:03Priced. I talked about how this whole running back dead zones are really hard range to like rank.
0:03It's just a big tier and you're kind of more profiles, uh, chasing in the, in the running back dead zone.
0:03There's guys that are clear dead zone profiles that you want to be out on, uh, in my opinion, at least.
0:03And then, you know, younger players like tootin could be guys that you'd be in on.
0:03And so it's like, how do you really rank them?
0:03I'm not trying to say that I'm super into tootin, but I'm going to put them ahead of the guys that I think are like clear fades.
0:03Um, and so I had tootin, you know, at the top of that tier, actually, uh, we had talked recently about that
0:03group and I had picked generic price at cost as the best, but I was starting to think tootin was going to
0:03be the one that was going to be the best at cost.
0:03Release that article. Like the next day it's like Chris Rodriguez is back in practice and they're splitting work 50 50 and looks great.
0:03And it's like, he's at facial tunes in a complete timeshare.
0:03And I'm like, reverse facial tootin. Like this is, this is the type of situation we should be paying attention to, uh,
0:03in camp and quick to adjust our, our rankings on in my opinion.
0:03And so I moved tootin back quite a bit.
0:03I moved Rodriguez up a little bit as a result of this.
0:03I still like tootin quite a bit more. I have them quite a bit higher in my, my running back ranks, but,
0:03um, yeah, that's kind of how I'm looking at it.
0:03What are you thinking? I, uh, just foiled by Shipley again, foiled by Shipley and optimism again.
0:03Well, I put out a tweet yesterday, which I think is like, so going to be what happens, which is so annoying as a person.
0:03It's pretty interested in playing Jacksonville backfield, which is that tootin has gotten only positive reporting.
0:03And now Rodriguez has gotten really positive reporting, but like, I just think that the people, a lot of the people who
0:03are drafting tootin and a lot of the people who are drafting Rodriguez are living in their own worlds.
0:03And like, and they're not interacting with each other.
0:03So I think that the end result of this is tootin goes up around and Rodriguez goes up.
0:03Are so excited. And the tootin people are so excited.
0:03And then you get back and it's like, wait, why did this backfield get three rounds more expensive?
0:03Because John Shipley is all about optimism. It's the Shipley effect.
0:03That's, that's exactly what it is. Jacob. Two Shipleys are, they're not passing in the night.
0:03Two Shipleys are just going full speed ahead. He's optimistic.
0:03He's going to tell you really good things and you're going to talk about it on your podcast and you're going to aggregate the heck out of it.
0:03And we're going to give John Shipley all of the name value.
0:03I mean, I love the guy. He's the most, he's a great guy.
0:03He's like, even DM me a few times. I like John Shipley a lot.
0:03He knows the game. He's like, oh yeah. Smart dude.
0:03Like, and he, he knows, he knows like knows fantasy stuff.
0:03Like, but is he the most, like, he's got to be the most discussed beat writer podcast.
0:03That's my point. And he, that's been my whole point with him is he knows how to, he knows how his bread is buttered.
0:03He knows how to get in front of us.
0:03He knows how to get on this podcast. We're not talking about any other beat reporter by name.
0:03John Shipley is the goat. Just wait a second.
0:03Wait a second. I got another beat reporter. Okay.
0:03Before with the other names you mentioned, I'm not going to talk about Waddle.
0:03That's just typical for him. Uh, Kenyon Sadiq. Yeah.
0:03If anything, it's a positive get injured. Now it'll save you from getting injured later.
0:03You know, you're very into Waddle. I'm a little concerned about Waddle's reliability.
0:03I'm moving him into like a range where I probably won draft him a ton.
0:03Not necessarily like down. I am moving Sadiq down, especially as you say, this is the one that you're most concerned about.
0:03So let's talk about that a little bit more.
0:03Cause he's yeah. Yeah. I mean, he's been a really good price as a mid first round pick.
0:03I legit profile going way late for reasons that are hard to understand.
0:03And when you have, he broke the combine record for 40 time for a tight end and he's a first round pick.
0:03I mean, they're going to want to use him when healthy.
0:03I am a little concerned that Mason Taylor led this team in targets and receptions last year was like a legitimate, decent day to rookie.
0:03Um, and yeah, I mean, there could be some routes, uh, issues there.
0:03Obviously I think when you go and you get Sadiq, um, as the, as the new guy in the first round, you're
0:03going to use him quite a lot. But if he's hurt right now in camp, you're talking about maybe a slower ramp up for the routes in season.
0:03You do have a capable other young tight end that you can use early in the year.
0:03So what are like three capable receivers? So there's not like a need to be in 12 all the time where I moved him.
0:03Well, how far down are you moving Gadsden to?
0:03We're probably going to get to Gadsden, but we're going to get to Gadsden.
0:03We are going to get to Gadsden. He's on the list.
0:03Um, and that's, that's the other beat reporters. Cause we're going to talk about Sadiq when we, Daniel Popper.
0:03Let's just talk about him. Let's talk about him both because we're on the tight end.
0:03So yeah. Um, yeah, Sadiq and Gadsden. I moved down.
0:03I moved Gadsden down further. Um, I guess maybe I should say why we're moving Gadsden down.
0:03So, um, that is a Daniel Popper report that had, let me find it here.
0:03There we go. A Rondae Gadsden has been running as the tight end three in camp thus far per Daniel Popper, Charlie
0:03Kalar is, there's a quote, very clearly tight end one while Njoku and Gadsden will be rotating in as the tight end two, depending on situation.
0:03Um, much of that's owing to, uh, to Gadsden's run blocking is what, um, Popper was saying.
0:03Um, but you know, run blocking doesn't matter for tight ends.
0:03You love, you loved saying that that was your favorite moment.
0:03You know, the annoying thing is I've actually drafted Gadsden.
0:03So I take no pleasure from it, but I, I do, I do love to bring up tight end run blocking on this program.
0:03I mean, um, certainly the, the camp news for the first two weeks of camp and, and the fact that the run
0:03blocking tight end has been out on the field more so that their offense can function as they, you know, establish other
0:03things is the only thing that matters. We should just victory lap everything about fantasy.
0:03All right. Well, I'm not going to go that far, but I, I mean, so I don't actually care that much about
0:03the, um, who do we want to talk about first?
0:03Gadsden or Sadiq. They're both moving. They're two young tight ends moving down.
0:03Well, I was going to ask you a Sadiq versus a Conquo and Gadsden and Juwan Johnson.
0:03I have all those guys sort of in the same range.
0:03So I moved. I had Sadiq. I had Sadiq in this.
0:03I mean, actually what's, what's interesting is that this used to be a range of tight end that I loved.
0:03Um, and it's getting like clobbered on a day-to-day basis.
0:03Like that whole range of Jawan, strange, um, a Conquo Gadsden, Sadiq, Schultz, Hunter Henry.
0:03I liked a lot of those guys that I liked drafting multiple tight ends in that range, like on FFPC, especially.
0:03Um, so it hurts to see a lot of those profiles take a hit with the dig signing, the Sadiq injury, and
0:03then some of this Gadsden news, but, um, yeah, I've moved both Gads.
0:03I've moved Gadsden down. Like I would just rather have Terrence Ferguson.
0:03Straight up. I mean, I really liked the Ferguson play, but I, that's, I mean, that's maybe fair.
0:03Part of the reason I would still be in on Gadsden would be to say, I think he's going to pop up.
0:03He's going to have some spike weeks. I think he's a better best ball play now.
0:03Cause I, I think it's kind of absurd to think that, uh, a year two tight end with his prospect profile, which
0:03was very strong in his first season is just going to not play.
0:03I mean, I think that's people remember the Albert O the Greg, there is weird stuff.
0:03Well, it's not Albert O there is weird stuff that happens at tight end, but Albert O situation quite different.
0:03He didn't have he Albert O didn't have games.
0:03Like he never popped. He never popped to the degree Gadsden did.
0:03I agree, but it's like tight. My main point is the tight end is weird.
0:03Like just generally as a position tight end is weird and different coaches seem to have very different preferences for what they want out of their tight end.
0:03And it's a position where, and, and Gadsden is, is kind of weird.
0:03Like he's a very unique player. He's a converted wide receiver.
0:03He becomes a tight end really, really thrived last year has like very clear strengths.
0:03Um, but they go in, they add Kalar, they add Njoku.
0:03And then you get a new coaching staff coming in with different priorities.
0:03Like it is, it's concerning. And I, I was, I was optimistic on Gadsden this year.
0:03I've moved him down. I hope that the market is going to move him down a lot so that I can get them really cheap.
0:03Cause I'm not like giving up all hope for this profile by any stretch.
0:03But I do think like, you know, if you're, if you're drafting a, if you're, if you're drafting a best ball draft
0:03and you want, like you've taken Brock Bowers and you just want a tight end too, like you, you, that tight end
0:03to better fulfill the role of like giving me a playable floor in case Brock Bowers turns an ankle for two weeks.
0:03And like Dalton Schultz is going to fulfill that role to me better now than an Arande Gadsden that I have no clue what he's going to do.
0:03If I'm drafting a main event team and I just need to start one tight end and I'm taking shots on four
0:03different profiles and I need one to pop. I'm still have interest in Arande Gadsden in that range where I'm, I just
0:03need to take shots on multiple guys and then pick one.
0:03So for people who don't know what he's talking about in FFPC, it's tight end premium.
0:03And there are two flexes. You can play up to three tight ends.
0:03And so like we had Harold Fannin on all the teams last year.
0:03I mean, I, I did on all mine with, with Siegel and I think you and I had them together.
0:03And, and so you, in that format, because when the late round tight ends profiles do hit, it's easy to jam them into one of the flex spots.
0:03Cause you have two flexes. You can start to three tight ends and with a tight end premium, it makes them very viable.
0:03Um, so yeah, I completely agree. Gadsden. And there's this idea of cranking purple, which is like what, you know, we used
0:03to talk about with crack rock on ship chase.
0:03Yeah. If you miss out on the early tight ends, people who don't know what crack rock means are curious what you're
0:03talking about at this point, but that's a screen name.
0:03Yeah. Anyway, we have a new podcast, Jacob. The, the, the, the, the ship chasing lore might not be, uh, lined up for everybody.
0:03Crack rock is a, crack rock is a, is a, a former and current guest, uh, of ship chasing once per year,
0:03uh, comes on and, uh, he coined the term cranking purple, which is the color of the tight ends are on FFPC.
0:03Anyway, the idea is because it's tight end premium, tight ends have a value.
0:03But if you miss out on the early guys, you know, the, that mid range of tight ends tends to get really priced up.
0:03So if you're playing an FFPC, a pretty viable strategy is to just wait on tight end and then draft like a
0:03ton of different profiles at the end of your draft and kind of see which one sticks.
0:03So, you know, you might draft like one stable guy is like a Schultz, but then you take a Terrence Ferguson and
0:03an Arande Gadsden and a Kenyan Sadiq and, uh, Eli Stowers.
0:03And then, you know, hopefully you find one sustainable starter.
0:03My point is in that format where you're kind of really looking at, okay, what if I need one of these guys
0:03to pop Gadsden and Sadiq pop a lot for me in that mindset, the floor just got really scary, like legitimately scary.
0:03Um, and the best ball format where I need that floor, I'm, I'm probably, I'm going to look other directions until he falls way down the board.
0:03Um, but I hope he does because I want to be on Gadsden Sadiq.
0:03Um, I'm not moving down as much. So like, I think, can I come in on Gadsden before we move?
0:03Yeah, come on in, come on in. I, I, I think so early in the off season coming off a rookie year
0:03where he had a bunch of strong games. He was like the tight end eight in, in early, like pre-draft.
0:03Yeah. Best ball. He's already going like tight end 18, 19.
0:03And so when you're talking about falling way down the board, you're talking about going meaningfully further than that.
0:03Ferguson's going like tight end 27, just for some reference points for people that aren't drafting a massive amount.
0:03My take on him at tight end 18, 19 is a lot of this FUD about his role was already baked in.
0:03And as far as, uh, best ball is concerned, I actually think, I mean, you don't get hurt by zeros.
0:03You just talked a minute ago about with Debo, just getting a few usable weeks, like Gadsden being out there and catching a few touchdowns.
0:03I still think he has the clear best receiving profile here.
0:03And Joku stuff has dropped off. His targets per hour run were terrible last year.
0:03Kohler has like 40 career targets or something like his career highs, like less than 20 catches.
0:03I agree with you, but they might not give a shit.
0:03They might not. They might not. They might just be disinterested in receiving at tight end.
0:03The point is that may not be the only option.
0:03That might not be the only outcome. That's what everyone thinks right now.
0:03That's what everyone is saying. Coach Bigindex has got all these quotes on Kohler and is hammering it.
0:03It's all over the news and Coach Bigindex does incredible work.
0:03I'm not coming at him, but there's, it's all over everywhere.
0:03The Charlie Kohler stuff. What about the fact that when Darren Waller got healthy last year, Mike McDaniel had a role for
0:03him from day one for an athletic tight end down the field with some actual ADOT different than the stuff he did
0:03with John who Smith the year prior that was all quick hit stuff.
0:03I didn't think there'd be a role for Darren Waller.
0:03Mike McDaniel had something schemed up for him. And that's exactly what Arande Gadsden's profile looks like.
0:03You mentioned the, the, uh, Oh, Quagbanam thing. And I know, I know that you weren't making a huge point, but I
0:03pulled this up and I wanted to circle back to it.
0:03A Quagbanam had fewer receiving yards in his entire career than Gadsden had last year.
0:03He had two career games over 60 receiving yards.
0:03Gadsden had five last year alone. He had 164 yards against your Colts.
0:03He had some really legit games. He had a four game stretch where he hit 68 yards plus four straight games, five plus catches, four straight games.
0:03It did fall off a little late. There are concerns here, but this idea that a year too tight end that did
0:03what he did 664 yards as a rookie had some real meaningful production, uh, would be like a tight end 18 or
0:0319, which he is right now is already, I think a value proposition on some of these concerns.
0:03I agree with you. The floor just got a lot lower and I agree with you.
0:03The weird stuff happens in tight end. I think the whole market right now thinks that's the only thing that can happen though.
0:03And I'm just trying to emphasize that like a scenario where he's in and out of the lineup a little bit.
0:03He has some good games injuries, open some things up for him.
0:03He emerges again later in the season, which we've seen with late round players that it takes a, like we talked about this with Jacoby Myers.
0:03I think we're at late round players had to have to break out twice.
0:03It happened with Jalen Coker a little bit. Gadsden's good at the game.
0:03I genuinely believe that. I think you believe that too.
0:03Maybe they won't have a role for him. Maybe that's not the plan week one and they end up having a role for him.
0:03Uh, maybe they have a role for him in week one.
0:03There's a lot of different things here that I think are not.
0:03Still, even the Popper report is like, it's, uh, I mean, it's bearish, but I do think that it's not as it's
0:03not like Popper saying, um, Gadsden's going to be a healthy scratch or something like that.
0:03It's the, what they're saying is, is that Kolar is going to be tight end one.
0:03And what I really think that he means by tight end one is he's going to be the Y tight end on early down 11 personnel sets.
0:03Meaning when they're in run situations, Kolar is going to be the Y tight end.
0:03And obviously they'll sometimes pass out of those situations.
0:03And then he's saying, you know, the, the, the, the tight end to think in 12 personnel, it's going to be sometimes
0:03in Joku, if they want to do some stuff close to the line of scrimmage, and there'll be Gadsden if they want
0:03to try and use a more of a vertical element.
0:03So, I mean, that's bad. I think the one thing he didn't address, but even when you said early down 11 personnel, let me just dive into that.
0:03Cause that's not a huge thing. What about like two minutes?
0:03Get at. Okay. Well, that's, that was the next thing I was going to say is what he did not say in
0:03his piece at what my follow-up question would be is who is the Y tight end in passing situations?
0:04Um, because I mean, maybe it's Kolar or even like, cause there's a lot of those early downs in two minute drill
0:04early downs when you're trailing in the second half.
0:04Right? Yeah. So it's, I mean, it's, it's what, so when we're talking about like the Y tight end, it really is two different roles.
0:04It's there's a lot. So like, uh, this is like a Jared cook is a guy that comes to mind.
0:04There's a lot of different tight ends come to mind is he was a guy who played in 12.
0:04Um, and he would play as the Y tight end in 11.
0:04If it was third down, if it was the two minute drill, or if the team was trailing in the second half
0:04and they were, they were passing, which that's a lot of plays.
0:04Um, and Eric Ebron too, right? Right. And because, yeah, there's a ton of guys.
0:04Kobe Fleaner was like this. Um, the, the Goodyear, Greg Bolsa, Chad, he was like this.
0:04Um, there's, there's a bunch of guys that are like this and it's, it's usually Evan Ingram like that.
0:04They just played Evan Ingram and Jack. They just played them all the time.
0:04They just played them and dealt with it. Yeah.
0:04But like they had, um, Jawan Johnson's been like this in the past, like not last year, they played him every snap,
0:04but in previous years he was like this. Um, and you can get like a 60 to 70, you get a 60
0:04to 80% route rate kind of depending on the flow of the game.
0:04Like there's going to be certain games where you're throwing a lot and there's going to be certain games where you're not.
0:04And so there's, there's variation to it, but you can have big route spikes.
0:04I mean the issue. So to me, the Kolar thing isn't actually the issue.
0:04There's a lot of focus on Kolar in the fantasy community.
0:04I do think he's like completely viable 18th round basketball tight end.
0:04But if we're talking about like actual value, um, that's crazy to me.
0:04You think Kolar is a legit 18th round pick and you want Gadsden to fall even further than like his 14th round ADP for the listeners.
0:04Charlie Kolar's career high is 10 receptions in a season.
0:04Yeah, but he has a real college profile. Okay.
0:04But he's been playing for the Ravens. Like he's actually like gotten on the field in three tight end.
0:04Sure. But he's been on the field with like a specific blocking role.
0:04Like he, and, and the chargers talking about how they, they want to use him more as a receiver and he's their type.
0:04Like my point on Kolar. He was really efficient as a, he was really efficient as a receiver there.
0:04When I say it's crazy, I don't think you're like certainly wrong.
0:04I, it's shocking to me that we're extrapolating to this degree.
0:04Cause like he has been really, really efficient to my, to, to, to, to just emphasize that point.
0:04His career at 10 yards per target, which is really good for tight end.
0:04Let's talk about his college profile, right? So he has three seasons of more than 40 receptions and more than 590 receiving yards at Iowa state.
0:04That's a real college receiving profile. Okay. So it's not four years in the big, in the NFL where he didn't do any of that.
0:04Right. But in a specific blocking role next to Isaiah likely a Mark Andrews.
0:04Isn't he next to, I mean, a declining Mark Andrews and a often.
0:04Sure. Isaiah likely. I just, I mean, my, my point is not that I'm not drafting Kolar ahead of Gadsden, but tight
0:04end is like my fundamental assumption about tight end is that it is both weird.
0:04And it's like heavily influenced by coaching preferences. And so it is a position where if a coach wants to tell me
0:04over and over again, the beat writers want to tell me over and over again, this guy's a tight end one.
0:04We think he has way better receiving upside than he ever got a chance to show in Baltimore.
0:04We want to use them a lot as a receiver.
0:04Like I don't really believe it, but I believe it enough to click him once every, every once in a while in round 18.
0:04Like that's like, like who else am I going to take in round 18?
0:04Darnell Washington. Like that's like the type of names we're going against.
0:04Right. It's like, sure. I actually like I'm sold.
0:04I'm sold. I didn't realize how good his college profile was.
0:04I was, I was genuinely pushing back on that out of.
0:04Ignorance I'll say. And, and I think you, you've explained that well.
0:04Um, but anyway, I, it just seems crazy. Cause like, again, the 10, the 10 receptions over four seasons as a career
0:04high, this has been like, maybe it's a frog in boiling water, but like, I was where you're at now, like a month ago.
0:04And like, I feel like I've steadily gotten my head around it a little bit more, but like, it is still alarming.
0:04I agree. And I, and I think the immediate outcome is that Kilar is going to have like 20 catches this year.
0:04Yeah. Cause that, that's a, that's a clear out possible outcome.
0:04And Gadsden meanwhile had like legit games, like multiple times as a rookie, a late round rookie, like on a crowded team.
0:04Everyone makes excuses for lad that like Keenan Allen was stealing targets for him.
0:04And everyone makes excuses for Q QJ. This was a crowded room.
0:04What about the fact that a Rondae Gadsden is a day three tight end stepped into that room and had the stretch that he had.
0:04Like he was really, really productive for a while.
0:04Yes. He lost work after that and wasn't productive down the stretch.
0:04I there's concerns with Gadsden too, but it just, that's why I say it's crazy to me.
0:04The Gadsden's already going like tight at 19 and you're like, I need him to fall further, but also I'll draft Kolar.
0:04And maybe that's right. I, I think all three of them are draftable late round tight ends in basketball.
0:04I think Gadsden is the only profile that I'd have interest in as a redraft option.
0:04But, but I do think like, so comparing to Ferguson, Ferguson's another guy who projects to be somewhat rotational.
0:04Um, but like, and obviously does not have the profile from last year, but he does have way higher draft capital.
0:04He had a pretty strong college profile. And like, to me, it's like, I don't know.
0:04Do I want to bet on the tight end who is going to have rotational issues, but the team can't stop talking
0:04about how much they love him and they want to dream up plays for him.
0:04Or the guy who's running and all of his routes with DJ Uyagolole at camp.
0:04Like, I just want to take Terrence Ferguson. Like, I just feel like there's fewer obstacles.
0:04Is that the Clemson guy that transferred to UCLA or whatever?
0:04Yeah, that's, that's the third team quarterback that Gadsden's.
0:04And I got his pronunciation right on the first try.
0:04So that was pretty good. Oh my God. I have no idea how to say that.
0:04That is impressive. Uyagolole. Okay. Uh, I, I, I, I sewered it on ship chasing the other day and then I, I practiced in a mirror.
0:04I'm kidding. I didn't, but I, uh, that's who Gadsden's playing with.
0:04I don't even know how to say his name.
0:04Great. Perfect. Awesome. So anyway, I think that it's, I think that there's, I think that there's still outs for Rondé Gadsden
0:04that what I was trying to say is that the collar thing, um, is less annoying to me for Gadsden because I
0:04already viewed Gadsden's likely ceiling role as not being like the, the, the quote unquote inline tight end on early downs.
0:04And I didn't really care, especially at his price.
0:04I was like, if he can be in 12 and in 13 and he can be the primary pass catching tight end
0:04on third downs and two minute and comeback mode, I can get like a 70% route rate out of that.
0:04Potentially that's more than good enough for me, especially at his price.
0:04I think he could be a smash. The concern for me with Gadsden is less collar.
0:04It's, um, it's in Joku being ahead of him is concerning and something I did not expect.
0:04It doesn't have to stick forever, but it's concerning.
0:04And then the other part that's concerning is that the, the receivers like just keep drawing really, really strong reviews.
0:04They're, they're loving Trey Harris. They're talking about all the ways that they want to use QJ.
0:04They're talking about lateral, if everyone, Brennan Thompson, my guy, Brennan Thompson has been like the talk of camp.
0:04So, you know, this is why I can't take Brenton strange.
0:04I think Brenton strange is like basically in, in manage.
0:04It's so hard to draft him because you got three really good receivers for Jacksonville.
0:04And then if any of them get hurt, they're just going to use Hunter more.
0:04And they're already talking about like using Hunter more than people realize.
0:04But at least he's going to be on the field.
0:04Right. Fair. I mean, like, like part of the path to Gadsden being on the field a lot was, I was like,
0:04I'm not that sold on this receiver room. Maybe they play a lot of 12, but if they love their receivers and
0:04they want to run their passing game through the receivers, like this may not be how we would do it, but there
0:04is a logic to saying if you're Mike McDaniel and you love their receivers, maybe he just looks at it and says,
0:04well, I want to run this passing game through the running backs and through Ladd and QJ and Harris.
0:04And so all I want for my tight end is run blocking.
0:04I'm not going to throw them anyway. I think that's a possibility.
0:04But my point is that's what everyone thinks right now.
0:04Everyone thinks that's all that can happen. That's not what everyone thinks right now.
0:04He's going ahead of Dalton Schultz. He's going to get 90 targets.
0:04Dude, he was going tight end eight and he's going tight end 20.
0:04Now, my key was all the way. It was a bad price.
0:04I mean, and that's before they even signed David Njoku.
0:04So like things change meaningfully. Okay. I mean, that part of it I'll accept, but I don't know why the tight end
0:04eight would be a bad price in a year where to me, there's like no good profiles after about tight end six.
0:04And like, he's a year two player who had a legit rookie year that we should be building off of.
0:04Like, I mean, the Brent and strange things like this is a guy we've seen limitations to over multiple years.
0:04But I mean, again, I think the massive disconnect between a redraft format and a best ball format where I get that.
0:04Like if you're playing in a home league, especially Brent and strange is meaningless to you because he's going to have probably
0:04the same value as whatever you can stream off the waiver wire.
0:04If you're playing in a best ball format, my opinion, the opportunity cost of foregoing a strange or Schultz who has a locked in role or Hawkinson.
0:04Yes. Probably. Gabson is very real. Like if you, I just, I just want you to tell me it has 11 targets this year.
0:04That just doesn't seem likely. How likely is that?
0:04That everyone else stays healthy. Not that likely. And Joku is going to stay healthy.
0:04And like what's, what's the situation there for Kolar?
0:04He gets like 50. Oh, they just don't use a tight ends in your mind in that situation.
0:04Well, I, yeah, I think that there's there. I mean, it's this offense is like a million moving plates, but like the
0:04situation in which they're actually committed to playing Charlie Kolar 75% of the snaps.
0:04Again, that's just one slice of the range of outcomes.
0:04I'm not saying that's what's going to happen, but I'm saying if like, we're going to play this game later today, I
0:04imagine, you know, and like, this isn't even something we can look up in the parameters of our game, but imagine we
0:04change the rules and I'm like, I want to see Charlie Kolar snap rate.
0:04And if someone came to me and they were like, Charlie Kolar is playing 77% of LA snaps.
0:04I'm like, well then throttle down the tight end target chair.
0:04And I want to draft more of Vlad McConkey and the running backs and Quinn Johnson and, and Trey Harris.
0:04That would be my conclusion. That does seem possible.
0:04I just want to keep emphasizing that I, I'm not, when I'm pushing back, I'm not saying it's impossible that the, the,
0:04the part for me that I keep going back to, again, this is a long view pod.
0:04This is a guy that was a really productive player, had multiple, they were actually split by an injury season, but multiple
0:04really good years at Syracuse, a sophomore and senior years, had a really good year as a rookie last year.
0:04I think he's legitimately good as a receiving tight end.
0:04I agree. I agree. I'm playing a lot of devil's advocate.
0:04I want to emphasize like, I agree with you on, I'm going to get, just let me, I want to be in on this guy.
0:04Let me finish the, cause I don't know that I've really articulated the point.
0:04I think a big part of my point with him is about the uncertainty of seasons.
0:04And so that's part of also why I think the best ball part of it is intriguing.
0:04It's funny. I agree. I I'm there with you.
0:04I, I, I don't, I, I don't do as much best ball, uh, you know, readers of the, of the sub stack
0:04know that I, I think in the late rounds, you probably want the guys that are just going to be out there on the field.
0:04Like Juwan Johnson is, is the easy answer there to me.
0:04Some of the other names you mentioned, I mean, Hunter Henry's fine.
0:04Um, some of the other names that you mentioned to me are a little bit tricky, like strange.
0:04I mean, may never actually have like big, big games.
0:04I think he's going to get squeezed from multiple directions.
0:04Like I actually think Coziel is going to have a real red zone role potentially this year.
0:04Like if strange is a between the twenties tight end with a small target share, like catching a run tight end, like
0:04he's, he's a worse version of Gadsden at that point.
0:04Like even if he's on the field a lot, but anyway, um, I, I, the, the, the best ball thing I I'm trying to say that I agree.
0:04It's just a, it's a very complicated, uh, range and we're going to be drafting some FFPC teams together and we're going
0:04to have to be making decisions on late round tight ends together.
0:04So this is a good thing for us to hash out.
0:04I'm taking Gadsden on multiple of my FFPC teams, which like, I don't feel awesome about because I could probably get him
0:04three rounds cheaper, but I don't feel like those teams are dead by any stretch.
0:04Like he's still a guy I want to be in the mix that I still think is interesting.
0:04I just think it's interesting that like you would need to get him three rounds cheaper.
0:04There's not a lot of year two tight ends that did what he did last year.
0:04I mean, period. Well, I like the Ferguson comparison deeper.
0:04So I wish I didn't take him three rounds.
0:04Do you think he's going to fall three rounds over this?
0:04Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I just think that's a fascinating thing because my point gets back to the uncertainty of thing.
0:04I'm a hundred percent confident of in this whole discussion is, is not whether he should fall or what will happen, but
0:04I am a hundred percent confident that he will fall that a hundred percent confident.
0:04I just think that's really shocking from the perspective of the actual profile.
0:04And I want to, what I'm trying to emphasize about the, the positive outcomes for Gadsden that I see are, um, are,
0:04are that like, there's going to be people that are going to be tweeting at me or messaging me after week one
0:04and saying, you're so stupid for that argument you had with Jacob, uh, in August.
0:04Look at a Rhonda Gadsden played 15% of the snaps in week one.
0:04I honestly think that's a, it's not even just a part of the range of the outcomes.
0:04I get the FUD where that may be like the most likely outcome.
0:04That's what a lot of people are saying. What I'm trying to emphasize with our whole conversation here is we don't know shit beyond that.
0:04We don't know David and Joku staying healthy at this stage of his career.
0:04David and Joku lost a lot of the receiving production last year.
0:04Like, uh, Adam Levitan had a great tweet about it a few months ago, right after in Joku signed, he was like,
0:04this guy lost a bunch of receiving to Harold Fannin last year.
0:04He stayed as a free agent, like all off season.
0:04He finally signed late. Nobody seemed to want him.
0:04Uh, and he signed cheap and like inexpensively. Kolar actually got a big deal.
0:04I'm concerned about Kolar, but the fact that Kolar has never really had a meaningful receiving role at the NFL level to
0:04your point, I think what you said about if, if Kolar plays 77% of the snaps, then you just throttle down the
0:04tight end target share for this team. Kolar would still get targets in that scenario, but he wouldn't be like, a massive K dot.
0:04Yeah, he would, he'd be fine. He would be like, whatever, uh, which is a viable reason to take him the 18th round.
0:04Cause to your point, there's no one else to take in the 18th round, a tight end or whatever.
0:04But, um, back to the Gadsden thing. It's a, it's an argument that like, look, Kolar could get hurt.
0:04Look, and Joku could get hurt. This is a deep team right now in August.
0:04We do this every year. You still want to care about profiles.
0:04This is a season where there's not a lot of intriguing tight ends and we're doing sort of a dead zone running
0:04back thing where we're like the, and I've made this case in my tight end work this off season that like with
0:04the advent of these multi tight end, uh, not the advent, but the increased usage of these multi tight end sets.
0:04There's going to be a lot of, uh, offenses that are going to split tight end routes.
0:04And then there's going to be some that are highly concentrated and we probably want the ones that are actually highly concentrated.
0:04And so I'm not trying to say it's like ridiculous, but we are doing a little bit of a thing with some
0:04of the profiles where it's like, just cause this guy's going to be in best ball.
0:04It makes more sense, but just cause this guy's going to be on the field running a ton of routes.
0:04Does it necessarily mean we forego profiles that we can't tell ourselves a story about, which this gets to Kenyan Sadiq as well.
0:04And why I've been in on him. We can't tell ourselves a story about it now.
0:04We don't know exactly how it works. People didn't ever move Harold Fannin up last year, despite how great of a profile
0:04he was because of the same thing. He can't play enough behind David and Joku.
0:04They couldn't wrap their heads around how a tight end two was worth drafting any higher than, and, and the reality was
0:04he just was good enough that they had to get him on the field.
0:04Now I agree with you that they, the, the, the tight ends, a weird position and the chargers, all the stuff that
0:04we're hearing out of camp is like, even if Gadsden's good enough, they don't need him.
0:04They want to build the offense out of the running backs.
0:04They're throwing a key to Mitchell a ton. They want to build their offense out of the, out of the wider series and stuff.
0:04But the whole case, I don't hear anyone making about Gadsden is if he's good enough, even if he's running with the
0:04twos and threes right now, that shit doesn't matter, man.
0:04I, I, people, they come into training camp with an idea that ADP is perfectly efficient right now.
0:04And then we have to move guys up or down just based on where they were running in camp.
0:04Gadsden was already too cheap for what his profile was.
0:04He had moved too far. And just because he's running with the twos and threes for the first two weeks of camp,
0:05doesn't mean you have to push him down multiple rounds from there.
0:05To me, that is a weird response for the market.
0:05And I, you may be right. You're way more plugged in than I am.
0:05But to me, that is a weird response for the market.
0:05And it's a, it's, it's the wrong way to play fantasy football.
0:05I see it way, like I've seen it more and more and more over the years as we get more and more news.
0:05It's part of why we're doing the short view right now is this stuff, but people come in and they just go,
0:05I'm going to make adjustments to ADP with every bit of news.
0:05Like ADP is efficient. My take is ADP is massively inefficient right now.
0:05It's been inefficient all off season. There's a ton of opportunities across a lot of different positions.
0:05Go look at the mid rounds at wide receiver.
0:05You and I were talking about it before the show, but there are, it's a, it's a joke between round four and round 11 at wide receiver.
0:05There are so many players mispriced right now. There's a bunch of players mispriced that I've written about that have immediately risen a ton.
0:05I'm not saying I necessarily moved the market on them, but like Keaton Mitchell's one, we've been talking a lot about thing.
0:05Bigsby, he's been skyrocketing. Marshawn Lloyd, we talked about earlier.
0:05He's been skyrocketing. Like those guys were mispriced already.
0:05They've also been getting positive buzz, but so it's kind of banking.
0:05Both points at the same time, but ADP is inefficient.
0:05That's part of why people want to move stuff based on news.
0:05But in some cases it's inefficient already. And then people want to make adjustments based on news where that stuff's already baked in.
0:05There was already stuff baked into Rhonda Gadsden coming into camp after, after he had fallen for months, baked in about concerns
0:05that this kind of thing could happen early in camp.
0:05If this is still going on like closer to week one, I'll probably move him further and further down my ranks.
0:05But I just, I don't know. I think it's a misunderstanding.
0:05It's a lack of creativity of how the season could go for the Chargers to think that what Arande Gadsden did last
0:05year can't pop up in different ways throughout an NFL season.
0:05Like it's very likely that he's going to need to be used at some time this season and that he's good and
0:05that he'll be in a good offense and that they'll be able to use him the same way that Mike McDaniel used Darren Waller last year.
0:05Even if he doesn't have a big week one role, the story of Arande Gadsden's season is not going to be written.
0:05So anyway, I just, I have a really hard time with this idea that we're like, we have to move him way
0:05down because there's been reports that, that he's running as a tight end three.
0:05I think it's a misunderstanding of the different profiles.
0:05It's a misunderstanding of where David Njoku's at in his career and what impact he can have and who Charlie Kolar is
0:05and what the ceiling looks like for that player.
0:05Even if he's playing a ton, there are ways you've described good ways, reasonable ways, ways I agree with that this could
0:05play out very poorly for Arande Gadsden. I'm not saying that's not a part of the range of outcomes.
0:05And we agree that the floor has gotten way worse, but I mean, people are just like super confident that what's happened
0:05in the first two weeks of camp means that the floor is the only thing now.
0:05And there are no ceiling and ceiling outcomes. And I just think that's, that's why I'm pushing back so much, not on
0:05you, but on like the stuff about the market and on anyway, we can move on.
0:05But I mean, I'm going to move them down because I had them, like I had them ranked well ahead of the market.
0:05I'm going to move them down too. Probably not even as far ahead of the market as I had them in my heart.
0:05Cause like I, I ADP bake my rankings. Um, but I'm moving them down.
0:05Like my point is not my, my, my, my very slight pushback, I guess, like for me is I didn't think his previous ADP was efficient.
0:05So I'm not moving. So, but I'm questioning my assumption that his previous ADP wasn't efficient.
0:05If that makes sense. Like I, I was a lot more optimistic than ADP and I'm, I'm starting to suspect that ADP
0:05may have been more correct than I was. However, his new ADP will still almost certainly be lower than my rank.
0:05Than where you rank him. That's, you just described exactly my whole impassioned two minute, five minute rant, whatever that was.
0:05You just described exactly where I'm at. I have to move him down.
0:05Cause I, I was ahead of even where he was, but like, if he's going to fall that much further, I'm still
0:05going to be drafting a bunch of Gadsden. And if people are wondering like, so in my like rankings, if people have
0:05my rankings, like part of this is like a mechanical issue of, of best ball rankings where I just know he's going to fall.
0:05Like, unless the news drastically changes in the next week, but if the news stays stable for a week, he's going to
0:05fall, but it always takes a while for ADP to catch up to what's happening in drafts.
0:05So like, I just punish guys because I don't want you to catch a falling knife and then you can just wait a week.
0:05And if you want to go back to draft him, you can just draft him to get them at a lower price.
0:05Um, but anyways, so that's like a specific mechanical note, but from the, from like a redraft perspective from, if you only
0:05had one team perspective, I still want to play Gadsden.
0:05I I'm less, I'm less enthusiastic about it, but I'm pretty sure we're going to get a more favorable price for it that I'm still going to like.
0:05So, um, I'm going to be in on, on wanting to play Gadsden.
0:05Sadiq. Um, he's an interesting player. He's a fascinating player because I was, um, I think, I think it's safe to say
0:05I was probably lower than you were on Sadiq as a prospect.
0:05And yet I was still drafting him a lot because his price made like no sense to me at all.
0:05Um, for a guy that was going mid round one.
0:05Um, I mean, most of the jets skill player prices, honestly, has not made a lot of sense to me.
0:05Um, I guess it makes sense to me. Like it's easy to make sense of people not wanting to draft jets players,
0:05but, um, I think that they've just been, I guess, like poorly calibrated and like overly focusing on the negatives considering the
0:05profiles that they have, especially the two young guys and Cooper and Sadiq, who I thought we were getting pretty close to free rolls on round one players.
0:05Um, and it was especially odd that like Cooper was the more expensive of the two, you know, given Sadiq was pick 16 picks higher.
0:05And I think a more interesting prospect. So, um, yeah, I, I've been clicking a lot of Sadiq.
0:05The hernia stuff is tough. Um, he's by no means off my board.
0:05It's another spot where I think the market will punish him more than I do in my rankings.
0:05But yeah, it's a, it's a raw prospect who I think needed a lot of development in as both a route runner and as a blocker.
0:05It's a tough position to learn. You know, it wasn't that long ago that we used to say rookie tight ends can't do anything.
0:05And that got immediately disproven. Um, but like you look at Colston Loveland last year, I thought was a much better prospect
0:05who proved to be a very good player. Um, but he missed most of camp with, uh, recovering from shoulder surgery.
0:05He got really slow played early in the season and he was pretty much unstartable for half of his rookie season.
0:05Um, and so if Sadiq's going to miss the majority of training camp, like it's, it's hard for me to then project,
0:05Oh, this is a guy you can just slide your lineup week one.
0:05That doesn't mean I don't think that he's going to pay off, uh, down the line, but I do think the outlook has changed.
0:05I think, I think we should probably expect as a median outcome that this is not going to be quite as much
0:05of a week one impact if he doesn't have that ramp up period time with the team.
0:05But, um, yeah, I agree with all of that.
0:05Uh, I think for home leagues and you just detailed that he's like basically undraftable.
0:05He's going to get cut by whoever drafts him and you can pick them up.
0:05Um, I mean, it just feels like that's the way that plays out.
0:05My question to you is with all the Gadsden stuff, Terrence Ferguson is fun, but you have, uh, and even later ADP
0:05and, and like for home leagues, shallower leagues, whatever, not playing on FFPC deep tight end premium formats.
0:05He's not even draftable probably. Um, I mean, he is, if you want to just take a wild last round swing, but
0:05me, yeah, he's not going to, I'm talking about like most home leagues that are like 16 round leagues and like 15 tight ends get drafted.
0:05He's going to be my last tight end pick in every single home league because he's, I, well, you don't even have to start him.
0:05He's going to play the free look game and you just get like, sometimes the Rams do things.
0:05They keep everything very close to the vest. And I just think there's like five percent.
0:05I think there's a 5% chance that we watch that game and we go, Oh shit.
0:05Oh shit. Terrence Ferguson. They decided they're going to build the thing out of Terrence Ferguson.
0:05Yeah. And he, and everybody wants to make a number one waiver.
0:05So why not just already have him on your team?
0:05And if he doesn't work, you can just cut him before Sunday even happens.
0:05Anyway, that's a, well, in some formats and other formats, he's locked through week one.
0:05And that would be my counter is that there's other things you can do with that last pick.
0:05But I, I've been writing it up the same way.
0:05And I completely agree with you about Ferguson. Um, as far as like, uh, uh, one of the, the most interesting late
0:05round tight end, like take a peak place. But what you're acknowledging is a 5% chance is that there's a really low floor there.
0:05The question that I'm, I'm winding my way to is we both like Juwan.
0:05Um, I have concerns like even into the, like Isaiah likely Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid range.
0:05I like Kincaid is an example concerns. Yeah, me too.
0:05I mean, if I'm in a home league, I'm drafting one of Bowers, McBride, Loveland, or Warren.
0:05That's what I'm, that's where I'm going. Does this just mean that we have to take one of the top four tight ends?
0:05Yeah, it does. I mean, because like the range of tight ends that I liked, and I spelled it out earlier that
0:05it was net like I was, I've never been into the range of Goddard, Andrews, Kincaid.
0:05That's like a likely that's been a stay away for me.
0:05Jake Ferguson, that's been a tough range at ADP the whole year.
0:05The range I have like in the deeper formats where you're either picking three tight ends or you're, you're, um, or it's FFPC is that next group.
0:05That group's gotten worse. And so, yeah, if you're saying, if I'm in a home league and I only need to draft
0:05one tight end, like I'm probably just drafting Bowers.
0:05If I can't draft Bowers, there's, I'm probably drafting McBride, Loveland, or Warren.
0:05Fannin is in play. Fannin is a good pick.
0:05And then you have, I mean, you have the potential for like Laporta and some of these other guys, but it is.
0:05I don't mind playing Laporta, but I'm probably already have my tight end by the time he comes off the board.
0:05Right. I'm not that into pits or craft. I, and I, so my point there is that the mid round tight ends
0:05are often, they often wind up being overpriced. What those profiles are to me is probably not, um, as good of a
0:05pick from an opportunity cost standpoint as well, I mean, it depends on the league you're in.
0:05If you're in a home league, some of those guys might go really late.
0:05You know, you might get pits in like round 13 or something.
0:05I don't know. I mean, it just kind of depends if enough people like push tight end, but relative to the early
0:05tight ends and the opportunity costs there, I'd rather probably just take one of the elite because I think the top four
0:05tight ends and I have fan in five, the top five tight ends are all really, really, really interesting.
0:05That's where I was going. Like the whole pushback on Gadsden and the whole reason this conversation has evolved.
0:05And one of the ideas for the show today was to finish up our wide receiver discussion last week and do a tight end discussion.
0:05We basically just turned the short view into a long view section of how to play the tight end position.
0:05You're nearing an hour and a half and we're halfway through the first segment of the show.
0:05So listen, you were right about it. This is the way that they're, this is the way that our listeners are going to have to live.
0:05They're going to have to get used to this, but we just had our whole tight end discussion in the middle of the short view.
0:05And so we'll, you know, we'll just throw that into the show notes or something.
0:05Um, the whole thing about Gadsden and Sadiq and those profiles and Ferguson is those are the upside profiles this year.
0:05If you're looking for this year's fan and it's probably one of those three dudes.
0:05If not, you're talking about Jawan Johnson. You said strange.
0:05Like I thought TJ Hawkinson in here. You mentioned Henry Goddard.
0:05You're talking about a lot of routes, right? Routes, but low ceiling.
0:05They're not going to contend with somebody in the Bowers McBride Loveland.
0:05Warrantier is going to put up enough of a ceiling that those dudes, they can be tight end five, but there's going
0:05to be a gap between tight end five and the higher levels.
0:05You can still play those dudes, but I'm not like from a strategic perspective.
0:05I'm not like, oh, I'm going to get a huge benefit.
0:05I'm like, I'm not losing as much as I should be at tight end.
0:05Yeah. Anyway, I was going to ask you about that.
0:05I agree. Yeah, I totally agree. And it's tight end stuff to talk about because I think the way you play it
0:05in a home league versus in an FFPC versus in a best ball draft are just the tight end position and what
0:05you need from the tight end position is very different.
0:05Um, and the margins are very different in that late group.
0:05Yeah. If I'm in a home league, like, yeah, a lot of those tight ends you mentioned Schultz, Henry, Andrews, Goddard, like
0:05a lot of these guys, it's like, they're all the same guy and they're not meaningfully different from whatever one of them
0:05you can get off waivers on a week to week basis and just stream the position.
0:05So I agree. Like if you somehow find yourself not having a, uh, one of the top five tight ends, like I
0:05do think it's worth taking a late round shot on a Gadsden or on a Ferguson, or maybe if Sadiq is able
0:05to get enough practice in before week one Sadiq, because you're right.
0:05Those are the upside profiles. Take a shot on.
0:05I don't think that you're getting anything from like, I better get Hunter Henry on my roster week one.
0:05It's like, I, yeah, I mean, you could stream them week one, but like, I think he's going to be immaterial to other guys you could stream later.
0:05Um, but yeah, for me, if I'm in a home league, like I can't imagine a home league draft that I do
0:05like a Yahoo or ESPN league, or my tight end is not Bowers McBride, Loveland, uh, Warren fan, and maybe Laporta, but probably one of the top five.
0:05Yeah. Makes sense. Let's keep, uh, plugging forward on the short view real short view.
0:05Um, okay. That's, that's all my injury news. I'm going to rapid fire through all of the rest.
0:05Okay. Um, and then maybe, maybe pick one or two that you find interesting.
0:05So, uh, conflicting green Bay news. We had a tweet that had read starting practice at a two wide receiver set.
0:05That got people really excited. Then we had Jordan loves say Matthew golden is going to be playing X receiver.
0:05Um, obviously didn't clarify, like it is theoretically possible.
0:05He could play X in three receiver sets, but not play in two receiver sets.
0:05Anyways. Um, I thought that was interesting. Cause we talked about green Bay on the show last week.
0:05Really quick. I'm going to go really quick on that.
0:05Read read being in a two receiver set was the less likely outcome.
0:05It was the thing that caught my eye more because that's not the thing we expected.
0:05We expected golden to be two receiver sets. Totally.
0:05I mean, it also could have been like literally just one random snap, but I, I thought it was meaningful that that
0:05even that that was the first half of a practice that they did that.
0:05There's some degree of intentionality. Um, it was meaningful to me.
0:05Uh, Kayshawn booty still likely to be traded. Uh, Eli Raritan, my, my goat, uh, earning the tight end to roll rotating
0:05in with the ones and it's reporting their life.
0:05They're likely to hold off a veteran ad. I'd mentioned that earlier.
0:05I'd also mentioned Jacoby lane is the quote talk of camp.
0:05Um, there was a report today that he's potentially pushing for shop baby to be the wide receiver to, uh, Denzel Boston.
0:05Your UW guy is just like getting a massively loud, uh, drum beat from every reporter in Cleveland.
0:05Casey Concepcion also getting positive reports. Um, this isn't really a report, but just like the vibes seem like both those guys
0:05are going to play a ton immediately from week one.
0:05Cedric Tillman's playing with like the third team. I haven't heard a report on Jerry Judy in weeks.
0:05Like I don't seem to be popping up on my timeline.
0:05Um, so positive for the rookies there. Uh, Josh Downs, my, my favorite player, maybe in the NFL.
0:05Uh, working inside and outside. Um, and there was a quote from Shane Steichen that said, he's a guy that can play inside and outside now for us.
0:05And his role is going to improve this season.
0:05Um, they may still sign Keenan Allen. Um, the, the Colt squad show, which, uh, it was so funny.
0:05Cause like Zane Danani, who tweets out a lot of the stuff, he was, he was sending me a link to the
0:05Colt squad show where they'd said something. I was like, I promise you, I already listened to the Colt squad show, but
0:05it's crazy that you do this for 32 teams.
0:05Um, but anyway, um, there was a, they were saying if they do it, do sign Keenan Allen.
0:05They think it would be a third down specialist role on limited snaps.
0:05Wouldn't affect downs and snaps. Obviously might affect his targets.
0:05Uh, Parker Washington projected the lead, the Jaguars and snaps and production per you say it.
0:05John Shipley. I, I, I, I'm, I'm, I'm buying this one and Oh God, I'm going to wind up telling you in
0:05a couple of weeks that I was crazy. And, uh, also per John Shipley, uh, he had projected Travis Hunter to play
0:0550% snaps or on a recent podcast. He said he expected to play 80% of the snaps on defense and 50% of the snaps on offense.
0:05And he said that would not come at the expense of Parker Washington.
0:05Um, I've been reading into that. That, that is a reason to stop drafting.
0:05Jacoby Myers, um, has been a note that I've kind of taken from that.
0:05Cause that seems to be, I've been seeing that too, but Jacoby Myers, they just signed him to a $30 million fully
0:05get it was 30 million of fully guaranteed money.
0:05A lot of the Jaguars reporting could be explained.
0:05If the Jaguars decide they're in the CFL this year, they get to play 12 guys on the field.
0:05Yeah. Maybe that would be helpful. All right. Continue.
0:05Because it's weird, right? Like, but it's, you do get, you do get to a math problem.
0:06Like on one hand, we're hearing Parker Washington is not coming off the field.
0:06He's going to put the most snaps. He's getting the most production.
0:06Then we hear about how, uh, BTJ is having a great camp.
0:06Maybe it won't lead to as much production, but he's irreplaceable on offense.
0:06He draws number one corners. Um, and he opens the entire offense up for us.
0:06And then you're also hearing Hunter is going to play, you know, up to 50% of the snaps.
0:06It's like, if all those three things are true, it kind of has to be Myers coming off the field.
0:06But I also agree with you that in a vacuum, it doesn't make that much sense for Myers to play half the snaps.
0:06See, this is the problem. And then also they want to play more tight ends.
0:06This is the problem. This is, this is what people want to hear.
0:06And I'm just telling you the reports out of Jacksonville are always what you want to hear.
0:06It's the bait. It's the chum on the top of the water and all you little fish are biting it up, man.
0:06Jacoby Myers got 30 million guaranteed after they traded for mid season last year.
0:06He got a $60 million contract and they're just going to bench him.
0:06He's not going to play this year. All right.
0:06Okay. Here's my question. I'm not in on Myers.
0:06I am not in on Myers, but I'm not.
0:06Here's my, here's my question. Here's my question to you.
0:06Um, I'll, I'll way too convenient. We're going to name him the inconvenient truth.
0:06Jacoby Myers is the inconvenient truth. Oh man. But, uh, I mean, I've been, I agree with everything you're saying about that, about the way too convenient angle.
0:06I all, I also have moved buyers down because there is a certain point where I'm like, okay, I'm one of the fish eating the chum.
0:06I'm 100%. I moved him down. I moved Parker Washington up.
0:06I'm ready to go. This is what I want to hear.
0:06I know. Okay. So, so last year, this is the stat I had last week.
0:06Last year was an average of 2.58 receivers per route run on Jacksonville dropbacks.
0:06So let's all even, I'll even increase that even though they added a bunch of tight ends.
0:06I'll be generous. So we have 260% of rope participation to work with.
0:06I want you to, to guess the week one rope participation for the Jacksonville Jaguars wide receivers.
0:06It's got 167. Okay. No, 260. It's got to add to 260.
0:06Oh shit. 260. All right. I'm going to give you, so Parker Washington's your, your starting slot, right?
0:06But he's presumably going to come off in two receiver sets.
0:06Well, they've been saying he's going to play slot while Shipley's been saying he's going to play Z slash flanker and he's
0:06going to lead the team in snaps. So if you add that up, basically he's saying he's going to play slot and
0:06three receiver sets and Z and two receiver sets.
0:06So I don't think Brian Thomas really comes off either because you have the vertical element.
0:06You need that. It threatens downfield. I don't think any of them is going to be super high.
0:06I get 260. That's what you get. I mean, so it becomes like 80, 80 for Parker Washington, 80 for Brian Thomas.
0:06And then, yeah, I have to go down on Jacoby Myers to like 65.
0:06And then I'm only leaving what? Like 35, I think, or, or 45, 80, 80, 65, 35 would add up.
0:06And I'm giving Travis Hunter 35. I do think Hunter is going to come in under 50%.
0:06I think the idea is going to play 50% of the snaps for the year is actually a good prediction.
0:06I shout out John Shipley. Great prediction there, but I don't think he's going to.
0:06Yes. I don't think he's going to in week one, but somebody will miss a little time, get banged up and, and,
0:06and Hunter's role will expand those weeks. He's going to be like 35% of the routes week one.
0:06That would probably, or 30%. Maybe it's 80, 80, 70, 30, you know, something like that.
0:06Yeah. 80, 80, 70, 30 is like exactly what I was going to say.
0:06So I'll, I'll, I'll be a P wash bowl.
0:06I'll say 81, 79, 70, all right. All right.
0:06You, uh, that's we're right in the same range.
0:06I do agree though with Hunter. It's more like I, the odds that those top three guys stay healthy for 17 games really long.
0:06That's not how NFL usually works. Um, injuries might be the inconvenient truth.
0:06And then that's the higher rates. I'm making a rule.
0:06Injuries are the convenient truth. I'm making a rule to get our short view a little faster.
0:06No more talking about John Shipley reports, at least on this episode.
0:06What do you have anything else before I can circle back to your other reports?
0:06Um, oh, I have a couple of the things.
0:06I don't know if you care or not, but, uh, the bucks, they were, they're using a heavy dose of pony in camp.
0:06Um, that was in the Jeremy Fowler article. They were talking about how much they're using pony.
0:06And then today roster watch was like tweeting out snaps and they had like 30% of their snaps with Irving and Gainwell
0:06both on the field together, which was pretty darn interesting.
0:06Um, obviously Jim McMillan wasn't practicing today. So maybe that's part of why, but that's probably a big part of why this
0:06is the kind of thing that like, if your third receiver is out, then you work on the non three receiver set.
0:06Like it's the kind of thing that I think we overreact.
0:06And even prior to the McMillan thing, there has been, they were doing some of it about how excited they are to use pony.
0:06Yeah. But sure. Like what would you do in camp on a day where your third receiver is at?
0:06Well, yeah, you'd probably work on this package that you want to do a little more of.
0:06Now the idea that they want to do a little bit more of does seem a little bit interesting and Gainwell's, I think interesting.
0:06Um, yeah, I want to go back to downs working inside and outside.
0:06He's the most mispriced wide receiver in fantasy right now.
0:06He's the most mispriced player in fantasy right now.
0:06Yes. I am doing like, yes. Yep. I don't know.
0:06He, he should be like around. He should be around five pick to me.
0:06Like if his ADP was where Christian Watson's was, I would be like, it's a really tough for me to decide between Josh Downs and Devante.
0:06This isn't fair. Cause I told you this before the show.
0:06I've been saying this for weeks. Okay. You're giving the hot take that my projections have been out for two weeks and
0:06he's right there for me with Christian Watson and Mecca Buka and Lad McConkie in my projections.
0:06People are really high on a Buka and maybe I'm a little low on him.
0:06I can understand how I could be. And he could hit in a meaningful way.
0:06I have all these guys for between 110 and 130 targets.
0:06Um, but downs to me is like, he's going to get a lot of volume in this passing game.
0:06It's, you know, it's, uh, adjacent to the Alec Pierce stuff where I'm a little bit lower on Pierce.
0:06I think Pierce got the huge contract and he's going to play a significant role for this team, but it's going to
0:06be a lower target role than downs because it's by necessity.
0:06He had 49 catches last year. So how we go through last year, did I go through like all the stuff that
0:06I wrote up in my, or sorry, did we go through last week?
0:06All the like splits that I wrote up in my article about all the different, like in this formation and how like
0:06downs and Pittman's were like always overlapping and Warren's and Pierce's were always overlapping because it's, it's interesting stuff.
0:06So I'll, I'll pull it up. Um, cause you, you get downs.
0:06I'll give you down. You're the Colts fan. You, you get downs.
0:06All right. Sweet. But I want to hear, I want to hear the take.
0:06I want to hear the take. Yeah. So, I mean, a lot of it was like, I sort of had like a,
0:06even before I got really into the data, we talked about this way back on Jacob's gives the show.
0:06I was like just watching the team every week.
0:06I felt like downs had the most overlap with Pittman in terms of being like a, a true drop back player.
0:06That is a guy that you want to have.
0:06Um, now I'm trying to pull up the darn.
0:06You, you, you told me this. We talked about it on Kim show.
0:06I do remember this now, but that was a, but I had, I had all of the, I had all the snaps.
0:06Anyway, here, here we go. The cliff notes for Michael Pittman's.
0:06Yeah. I have it up here now. I think here we go.
0:06Yeah. So all 11 personnel pass phase last year, Josh downs led the team with a 23% targets for outrun Pittman 22 Warren Pierce for 20 and 17.
0:06Then if you isolate, um, non-play action, 11 personnel downs, 23 Pittman, 20 pierce, 17 Warren 16.
0:06If you go to third and fourth down passes downs, 29 Pittman, 19.
0:06Warren and Pierce 15. If you go first and second down play action.
0:06So the opposite. Now we're looking at like more built off the run type Warren 36, Pierce 24, then Pittman at 23,
0:06then downs, 21, 12 personnel Warren 28, Pierce 25, Pittman 20, 12 personnel play action.
0:06Warren 31, Pierce 28, Pittman 19. My point being is that there's actually, yeah, please break that down.
0:06Cause you just yelled a bunch of numbers. I fell asleep.
0:06The listeners have been hitting fast forward for like 10 minutes.
0:06All right. So to summarize all that, basically I split up into these two components of what I think are more like your pure drop back passing.
0:06So 11 personnel. And then beyond that, I went even further to don't play action into third downs.
0:06And on the other side, I looked at 12 personnel and further into early downs and play action.
0:06And with the idea that one of these groups of past plays is more about pure drop back passing.
0:06The other group is a little bit more about taking advantage of the, I don't know, intermingling or the, uh, the interaction
0:06of the run game with the past game. And in that latter group, what you saw is that Pierce and Warren had
0:06easily the highest targets for a run much higher than Pittman and downs in the pure drop back situations.
0:06It was downs and Pittman. And then a big gap to Warren and Pierce.
0:06And I'm bringing all that up to say that, that where Pittman is leaving is where Pittman is leaving is the stuff
0:06that they already want to use downs for. And what Pittman, what Warren and Pierce were doing a lot in the offense
0:06last year is the stuff that they weren't really using Pittman for anyway.
0:06So my point is, is that with Pittman gone downs is the one who I think is going to get called upon a lot to do more.
0:06The potential fly in the ointment is what if Warren takes a big step and they want to use him a lot
0:06more because he's a year two player. I think that's a totally reasonable way to play the offense, but Pierce is going into year five.
0:06I think we know who he is. He's hurt right now.
0:06I don't think he's the guy who's going to have this big role change.
0:06I think it's going to be downs or Warren and probably both.
0:06Especially if they don't sign Keenan Allen. Anyway, that's, that's kind of my, my big rant on the Colt stuff.
0:06I think we see it very similarly, but yeah, I'm extremely optimistic about downs.
0:06The reporting on him about the two wide receiver set stuff goes like even deeper.
0:06Like Ben Solak was at Colts camp. He wrote stuff up about how they're going to use more two wide receiver sets
0:06with the wide receivers to the same side so they can play downs in 12, put them in the slot.
0:06They were talking about how they're going to use pre-snap motion to put downs in behind in a stack behind the other
0:06receiver to get them off breast coverage. Like that's the level of intentionality that is coming up in these reports.
0:06I just don't buy that those that like change cycle has been working on all these specific game planning things about how
0:06can I maximize Josh downs and play him more?
0:06And then they're going to be like, well, we decided to sign Keenan Allen at the 11th hour.
0:06So we're going to scrap all that. Like that doesn't make sense to me.
0:06There's such a level of intentionality about how they want to use downs.
0:06The team can't stop talking about how much more they want to use downs and fantasy managers I feel like have PTSD
0:06from believing in downs when he was in different situations with different players on the team and it not fully coming together.
0:06But I think he's an epic smash this year.
0:06Yeah, he's going to rise a ton after you just broke that down.
0:06Good job. He's wildly mispriced. I'm trying to figure out how high to rank him.
0:06That's not absurd because some people use the ranks and is similar to what you said.
0:06The mechanisms that we have to go through as content producers when we create ranks like you don't want to leave stale rankings on guys that are falling.
0:06I do that kind of stuff too. When I push guys up that I think are massively undervalued, I use a target.
0:06And fade mechanism. But I still often push guys at least a full tier above.
0:06But it's like, man, people use these ranks and then just draft strictly off them.
0:06I don't want them drafting him five rounds too early.
0:06But he literally might be five rounds mispriced. Watch downs as a reason to draft Brock Bowers because you could just get
0:06a top 24 wide receiver in the 10th. Yes.
0:06Agreed. The last thing I want to circle all the way back to was I mentioned the read thing as well.
0:06But if we get this is this is an extension of the read thing.
0:06I said the read two wide receiver set tweet was interesting.
0:06The fact that the reality with Josh Downs is it's like it's the betting favorite right now that Josh Downs is playing in almost two wide receiver sets.
0:06It seems very clear. They don't really have another receiver.
0:06We've been talking about this. I think we I don't know when I did the ETR pod.
0:06I don't know how much I talked about it with you on the different shows so far.
0:06Maybe we talked about on the wide receiver show.
0:06So when I did the ETR pod with India, it was like, yeah, I mean, this is when you go through the
0:06projection process like, yeah, this is what they have to do is what they're going to do.
0:06It's Shane Steichen's a smart coach. There's no there should be no shock whatsoever.
0:06Everything you just said that was new information to me, but that he's devising ways to use downs and two wide receiver sets.
0:06That is also very intentional about what his limitations are using stack the receivers on the same side stack them.
0:06I was saying yes, not because I hadn't heard that because I'd already thought that when I was going through the projection
0:06like there are answers for this and Steichen will find them.
0:06It's part of the things where I feel like fantasy analysts are very much like they get stuck on like very specific limitations.
0:06And then like shockingly, Shane Steichen is is smarter than, you know, those of us who are doing fantasy analysis.
0:06And it's like if you believe that Shane Steichen is a smart coach and I really do, then like he's going to
0:06figure out a way to get Josh Downs on the field and not Ashton Doolin.
0:06This is the exact kind of thing that, by the way, not to circle all the way back to the Gadsden thing,
0:06but like what you just said about fantasy analysis, this is the exact kind of thing I was trying to emphasize in the Gadsden thing.
0:06I could be wrong on the Gadsden thing, but I've been right on the Downs thing and it's a similar situation.
0:06And you have been too, obviously. But I've been saying this about the Downs thing for months now, and it is very clear.
0:06I think that within uncertainty, there was more upside than people were willing.
0:06And it's like a lack of imagination. I think I said with the Gadsden thing, it's what you just said as well.
0:06Fantasy analysts do this and they miss. And then what happens, dude, is every season we get into week one and we
0:06get hit with so much information about all 32 teams that no one actually debriefs this part of it.
0:06And the next year we do it all over again.
0:06And I've been saying this shit for eight, 10 years now.
0:06Like it's drives me a little bit nuts how many times we've had to relearn the same lesson that this is the way that this stuff works.
0:06But anyway, Jacoby Lane and Denzel Boston. I want to talk about those two.
0:06Lane, you mentioned Taka Camp. To me, that's a little bit more of it's the first two weeks.
0:06Rookies looking great are going to look great. I don't even necessarily think that it's a huge negative on Elijah Surratt.
0:06It certainly for me means that you should move Lane ahead of Surratt.
0:06He was drafted earlier. But Surratt's to me the little bit more interesting profile.
0:06And yet, yes, this is a positive for Lane.
0:06But people take this and run with it. Oh, he's the camp star.
0:06It's the first two weeks of camp. He's having a good early camp.
0:06There's still time to come. There still are things that can happen.
0:06He might pass Rashad Bateman. He might not. Next week might be a different story.
0:06And then people won't rehash or remember that last week they were getting way too excited about Jacoby Lane.
0:06The flip side of that one was the Denzel Boston one.
0:06I actually am really responding to this one probably because I'm a little bit biased.
0:06Every time I talk about it, I'm a Sammy UW fan, et cetera.
0:06I think Denzel Boston is really good at football.
0:06I've had a hard time being clear about that.
0:06I was pretty optimistic about a Dunze last year, particularly not so much or two years ago, not so much Polk and McMillan.
0:06But when you're a fan of a team and you watch every single snap and you watch all their stuff, it's a
0:06little tough because the projecting from college to pro stuff is tough regardless.
0:06There's guys that show a ton at the college level and they cannot translate that to the next level.
0:06And you never see that same sort of dominance of skill at the next level.
0:06And there's not really a clear reason why. And this is why the NFL struggles at this type of evaluation, et cetera.
0:06So I do sometimes have a tough time with the guys that I watch every snap of them and rooted for them and really like them.
0:06But Denzel Boston was a baller in college. And the fact that everyone's like, he looks like an absolute baller in Browns
0:06camp is not surprising to me as somebody who watched a ton of Denzel Boston.
0:06Guys, a stud, played with a mobile quarterback and still like, so some of the numbers that he didn't put up, I
0:06would, I would, I would be like, man, he was our most reliable player and a unique offense for a quarterback that
0:06held the ball a little bit, et cetera. Demond Williams.
0:06Anyway, Denzel Boston. He's also a guy that had the best excuse of maybe anyone ever for having a late breakout.
0:06Like he played behind literally three top three round picks for two years and like was never going to get on the field in a million years.
0:06And then when he did it, got to the field, he was immediately productive.
0:06So, and then the, the other part about it relative to lane, the, the, the rest of the contrast I wanted to
0:06draw was lane does have Surratt there. It's a, it's an offense where there's probably only room for like two really good receivers.
0:06We haven't seen Lamar Jackson offenses support several receivers because of the mobile QB thing.
0:06I was just sort of alluding to with Denzel Boston when he was in college.
0:06We're not going to have that quite. I mean, all reports on the Cleveland QBs are that this is like the worst
0:07QB battle that's ever existed, that they're horrible. You're in on shitter Sanders.
0:07You tweet about him. You love him, but he's, he's probably going to start week one, which is fine.
0:07But if Boston's hitting to this degree, you could do something worse than round 18.
0:07We just talked about Charlie Kilar for sure. If Boston is not, not for sure, but whatever.
0:07If Boston is hitting to this degree, there's a couple of things.
0:07There's, there's the draft capital element. He's around to pick there's he does have another rookie with him in Concepcion.
0:07Jacoby lane and Surratt were both later round picks, but Boston and Concepcion kind of played different roles.
0:07Lane and Surratt are both sort of outside receivers, a little overlap.
0:07Concepcion and, and Boston are going to play together long-term in, in like complimentary roles.
0:07They clearly view this as their long-term wide receiver one and wide receiver two.
0:07And they, I mean, I like Concepcion's profile more, but they don't probably care which one is the one and the, which one is the two.
0:07They probably want the both to be really good.
0:07And yeah, I'm not moving them ahead of Concepcion, but I am reading these really positive camp reviews.
0:07Like you said, that are coming from everywhere as what you described that we're going to get more Boston earlier.
0:07I don't, I'm probably not like throwing Judy completely out as you kind of were, but I'm, I mean, I'm certainly taking
0:07Boston ahead of Judy because I think you want the rookie upside.
0:07But Judy's going to run a lot of routes.
0:07I think too, I think it's going to be those three.
0:07And I think they're going to be super heavy 11 because they don't really have any other tight ends on this roster.
0:07Like the behind, um, behind fan. And I mean, one of the reasons why we haven't gotten into the run blocking wars
0:07with fan in this off season, it's like, there's literally no alternative.
0:07So they're like, no matter whether the team cares about his run blocking limitations or not, he's going to play every snap
0:07because I think that their tight end depth chart, like they drafted a guy to Cincinnati, Joe Royer in like the fifth.
0:07Um, I think they probably have like some veteran on the, I don't even, I couldn't even name another Titan on their depth chart.
0:07Did you remember it from your projections? No, I honestly don't.
0:07So, so like, I think they're going to be one of the highest, uh, Jack stole.
0:07They have our guy, Jack stole who used to be like a third tight end for the Eagles.
0:07So yeah, they're going to play, I think like white heart, like white heart.
0:07That sounds like a game of Thrones character. Um, him and Ronnie rivers would get up to some stuff for sure.
0:07But, uh, yeah, they, they got, they got nothing going on at tight end.
0:07So I think, and, uh, Cedric Tillman's been playing with like the second and third team.
0:07I think it's Zaya bond has been rotating in with the ones.
0:07I should mention him. He's probably going to get some, some snaps, but I think pretty quickly into the season, it's going to be pretty consolidated.
0:07I think on, uh, conception Boston, Judy and fan.
0:07Yeah. Yeah. Agreed. I think Boston's going to struggle to earn a ton of targets because, um, I do think conception is
0:07a better target earner and fan is a really strong target earner.
0:07And I don't think Judy is going to go away.
0:07I think all of this is very optimistic for me on Boston getting early playing time.
0:07I would just emphasize. And then I think he's going to be efficient.
0:07I think he's going to be a player, but I do think because he's going to be, you know, your X receiver
0:07lining him outside, having to take on some tough roles.
0:07It's going to be tough for him to be like, and he's not a guy like if you're, if you're the Browns,
0:07like I could see some weeks where they can't generate anything because their quarterback play is abominable, uh, and their offensive line can't really block.
0:07And I could see like game plans or Monkens like, okay, how do we just get like something like literally anything?
0:07And it's, it's, if you're going to do some like schemed up BS, the screens and gadgety stuff, that's, that's fan and in conception, he owns music.
0:07Um, that's not really a Denzel Boston calling card.
0:07So I think he'll be, he's, I think he's a player that will hopefully show some stuff this year and that we
0:07can be really in on in 2027 and maybe a more functional environment.
0:07I love that. So that is a short view.
0:07It took us two hours, Jacob. Now listen, listen, I'm going to make this point.
0:07We've named it the short view. We never said it was going to be short.
0:07The point of the short view was to get us, even though we like to get very deep into things, multiple layers deep.
0:07We went long on many of these topics was to get us to talk about a lot of different topics.
0:07There's a lot to talk about right now. We went through two hours of discussion there.
0:07We figured out how to play tight end in all sorts of leagues.
0:07We figured out a ton of interesting stuff. The most misvalued player in all of fantasy football, a ton of interesting stuff
0:07about a ton of happenings and talked about a ton of teams.
0:07That was the point of the short view. I loved those conversations.
0:07It was two hours, but that was a great two hours.
0:07That said, we still have to do a long view topic or it's not the long view.
0:07We're going to do a draft. We're going to do a draft.
0:07I don't think anyone's fast forwarding through the short view to get to the long view.
0:07We were talking about some good stuff there. I am not going to apologize to anyone.
0:07You can apologize if you want. No, I won't.
0:07This is part of why we did this show.
0:07It's part of why it's named the long view.
0:07It's like a bit of a joke at ourselves.
0:07Part of why we're doing the show this way is we're not doing search engine optimization.
0:07If we are doing a three-hour podcast, a three-and-a-half-hour podcast today, then you're getting a three-and-a-half-hour podcast today.
0:07I hope you enjoy it. Yeah. We're loving it.
0:07We're not going to feel insecure about it. The long view is up.
0:07We are going to draft things that we want to know today.
0:07If we could flip over the card week 17 and know one thing about one player's full season result, his targets, his
0:07rush attempts, his yards, receiving, passing, or rushing, did I say?
0:07Receiving, passing. Yeah, I wasn't even going to give you targets.
0:07I was going to say anything. Yeah, targets. We didn't say targets.
0:07You're right. No, it's anything that you get fantasy points for.
0:07If you're drafting a quarterback, you get their passing yards and their passing touchdowns, plus their rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.
0:07If you draft a running back, you get their rushing yards and their touchdowns and all their receiving stats.
0:07If you're drafting a receiver, you get their receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns.
0:07But you don't get their targets. You don't get their route shares.
0:07You don't get their pass attempts. You don't get any team level stuff like PROE or team points per game, any of that.
0:07But the idea here is it's the players who you think would have the biggest impact on how you draft this year.
0:07And you can interpret that however you want. So it can be really wanting to know something about a specific player.
0:07It could be maybe that specific player tells you a lot about the offense, or it would really inform how you play a particular positional group.
0:07It could be anything, however you want to interpret it.
0:07But it's whoever would be the, you think, the biggest, most valuable piece of information to know to help you draft fantasy football teams better in 2026.
0:07All right. You get first pick. Who's it going to be?
0:07Easy. Travis Hunter. Travis Hunter with the 101. He calls it easy.
0:07I think that's a reach. I don't even really have him on my list, to be honest with you.
0:07I'm going to pull this up in a way that we can show for the YouTube.
0:07We got to get Davis to make some Claude slop.
0:07I don't know the reference. Every time that we've come up with a gimmicky idea on Shipley chasing, this year, Davis will build some somewhat functional tool.
0:07You don't have Gretsch.com over there anymore, so you have the Davis Claude tool.
0:07I'm just going to do this in Excel. You can read that, right?
0:07All right. Jacob takes Travis Hunter with the 101.
0:07Explain it. Yeah. I mean, we were just talking about how impossible it is to figure out what's going on with Jacksonville.
0:07And so I think Hunter is the most important piece of the puzzle because if his stats are extremely muted...
0:07Then what do you know? I know that the other three guys are consolidating the passing game.
0:07And then I'm probably drafting a ton of Parker Washington.
0:07I'm pretty interested in Brian Thomas Jr. I think it's going to be one of the most interesting offenses in football.
0:07So I want to know the route distribution. If Hunter's stats are massive, that changes...
0:07I get four players of what I know what to do with knowing Travis Hunter's stuff.
0:07Because if he has big stats, then I want to draft Travis Hunter, especially in best ball.
0:07But then I also... I know that those routes are coming from somewhere else.
0:07And so Jacoby Myers could come off my board.
0:07Thomas probably comes off my board. Parker Washington, I'm moving down considerably.
0:07So I feel like I'm getting four players for one stone if I know the Hunter stats.
0:07I think if you get good Hunter stats, you're getting some information.
0:07I think if you get some pretty average Hunter stats, you kind of don't know when they came.
0:07You don't really know how much the other guys consolidated.
0:07You're saying you draft a lot of Parker Washington, but that could still be pretty wrong.
0:07I don't know if you're getting a ton of really actionable information.
0:07But, you know, that's your opinion, man. I'm going to go...
0:07Well, man, I have a long list. You get two.
0:07We can make this a snake draft. No, I don't want to do a snake draft.
0:07You want to do a snake? All right. Well, I mean, we could.
0:07I don't care. It seems... I'm going to go...
0:07Well, I mean... Let's just go back and forth.
0:07I don't want to give too much away. But I will say that I think...
0:07I'm not going to do it because it's boring.
0:07But I think there's the really obvious of like, oh, you know, CMC is like, you know, like, okay.
0:07Like, finding out whether CMC stayed healthy or not probably dictates a lot.
0:07But that's also true of like Puka. I actually don't think it dictates that much.
0:07Like, because yeah, like if I found out that one of those elite players like has terrible stats, well, then I know not to draft them.
0:07So that helps. But if I just find out that they have great stats, it's like, well, what does that do for me?
0:07I expect them to have great stats. CMC and Puka to me are guys that if they stay healthy, can project for like meaningfully more than anyone else.
0:07Like Puka has that targets per run profile. You think they have projected meaningfully more than Gibbs?
0:07Well, maybe not Gibbs, but you get CMC at such a discount.
0:07And I mean, yeah, that's been the deal with CMC for like several years.
0:07It's like you get, you take them at 107 and like you can easily project a healthy CMC season to be the overall player, like number one player.
0:07And you're getting able to pick seven. And Puka's like targets per run, like two of the last three years are like,
0:07excuse me, both of the last two years are two of the top three at a, you know, whatever the route minimum is in like the PFF era.
0:07Like his, so he could just consolidate so much volume in a, in a, in a fully healthy, like huge season.
0:07And so anyway, guys like that are, are really interesting.
0:07I'm going to go, I'm going to go to a top of another position, but I'm going to do Colston Loveland.
0:07All right. I think, I think you get a lot of information about the tight end position from Colston Loveland.
0:07I think he has some massive ceiling scenarios on my list.
0:07I think you get a lot of information about Luther burden immediately.
0:07I mean, not necessarily all the information, because if you get a really great Gloveland projection, I don't think it necessarily means
0:07burden can't have a good, a good season as well.
0:07But I think you get a lot of, um, I mean, Caleb Williams is, is a really interesting, uh, impact there.
0:07But if Loveland just has an average season, part of the reason I would do this is it would, it would dramatically
0:07change my, my, uh, interest in hammering Bowers and McBride before trying, because there's this whole discussion right now of like in,
0:07in, in leagues that are not tight on premium, you can make a decision to like pass on Bowers and McBride and
0:07get Loveland in like the third or the fourth.
0:07And it's like, how that's a pretty viable thing.
0:07If I can just go hit elites at running back and wide receiver, if I know that Loveland is going to do
0:07what I think he's capable of doing, then the, I think the optimal build is go non-tight end in the first two
0:07rounds and then come back with Loveland, right? Like that, that can be massive.
0:07If he's not putting up that season, then I, I probably want to be more aggressive on Bowers and McBride.
0:07So it gives you a lot of information. I think about the early rounds.
0:07Anyway, Colson Loveland's my pick. I like that pick.
0:07Uh, that was very high on my list. I had both Loveland and Burden high on my list and maybe I'll pick
0:07Burden later, but, um, I think that's a fascinating one.
0:07Um, this one, uh, maybe you'll say this is fancy play syndrome, but, um, I'm going to take Fernando Mendoza.
0:07We have very, very different, uh, approaches to this.
0:07I like that. So the reason for this does a reason for this pick is now there's a little bit of a risk.
0:07The risk is that like, if, if the stat line is like super low, then I guess what I find out is
0:07that they played Kirk cousins for a lot of the season.
0:07But I think that also tells me something. You don't even get pass attempts though.
0:07You don't even, you just get yards. Yeah. But anyway, so that's a little scary because if I get the Kirk, cause
0:07then if it's the Kirk cousins, I don't get that much information.
0:07Although I think that if it gives me the information that Kirk cousins played a lot, unless Mendoza comes in, it gets
0:07hurt and Kirk cousin goes back to cousins. I think that tells me they actually started pretty well because I think the
0:07better they start, uh, with Kirk cousins, the longer he plays.
0:07Of course, the reason why I picked Mendoza is that, um, Gentty and Bowers are probably going to be two of my most drafted players.
0:07And I thought about just picking Gentty or Bowers, um, which would have made a lot more sense, but I think it's more fun.
0:07I get, I get information on the offense. I'm going to, I'm going to sound like such an ass to a lot
0:07of the listeners, but I love, I want to be clear.
0:07This was Jacob's idea. So you can't tell me that he doesn't understand the rules.
0:07Like this was your idea. I definitely, if you get Mendoza's yards and touchdowns, you don't know how many games he played.
0:07This is like, I'm sure that this is a bad pick.
0:07This has to be a bad pick. What do you learn?
0:07If you just love me, it's completely unfalsifiable because we will never learn.
0:07We'll never know. You're hoping to get a really positive result that you're like, Oh, now I can be really in on
0:07Gentty and Bowers, but what if you get something in between?
0:07You're like, well, maybe he only played eight games and it's really good for eight games.
0:07I mean, that's possible that when I made this list, I didn't really think through the fact that we wouldn't get the, uh, the past attempts.
0:07Um, but I, uh, so fair enough. Fair enough.
0:07I'll stand by it regardless. Yeah. If you thought, I mean, I'll, I'll give you a, I'll give you a mulligan if you want.
0:07No, I'm sticking with it. I'm sticking with it.
0:07I mean, it costs me $0 draft with completely unavailable results.
0:07And I guess I may be using this to like prove a wider point than I am to be like hyper specific on the format of the rules.
0:07But I think I'm, my point is, is that I want, I really, really wish that I knew whether the Raiders would be competent this year.
0:07That's great. Yeah. If they are a league average offense this year, um, which I get that there's some limitations to exactly
0:07how much we could derive that from Fernando Mendoza's line.
0:07But if we knew that they were a league average offense this year, then I think Gentie becomes a massive smash.
0:07I think Bowers becomes an absolute must draft. Um, and I think it's also the case that like, I don't even think
0:07they can be a league average offense if those guys aren't.
0:07So it's like, I need to know that there's the environment for them to be that.
0:07But then also like, if you were to tell me, oh, the Raiders are going to be actually better than a lot of people think this year.
0:07I'm pretty confident that Gentie Bowers don't even get hurt because I don't know how they get to be a particularly good
0:07offense this year if those guys aren't a big part of it.
0:07So, um, I think that that's one of the most, one of the most interesting teams where you have a team that
0:07a lot of people think is going to be terrible, but still has two top two round picks that I really want to invest in.
0:07I like the logic there. What I will give you props on is I think quarterback is definitely a way to play this in, in a meaningful way.
0:07Cause you get a good feel for the whole offense.
0:07Obviously. Um, I think the quarterback, so two things I'll say, I didn't love the hunter pick because I think one of
0:07the things, like what I did with Loveland is I think the bears are going to be a really consolidated offense.
0:07If I, I would really love to know one of the key pieces in a consolidated offense because of what it tells
0:07me about the other pieces, um, in that consolidated offense with hunter.
0:07You don't really know if it means Brian Thomas or Parker Washington or whatever.
0:07I kind of gave that, that take. Yeah. Patrick Mahomes to me is really interesting.
0:07This is a team that has been first or second and pass straight over expected every year of his career.
0:07Um, he's coming off an ACL. There's a concern that he runs more.
0:07If his numbers are pretty low, it could, I don't know that it tells you a whole lot about Kenneth, uh, uh,
0:07Walker, because I think you have the concern that they're just bad or, um, the possibility that they're very run heavy and Walker had a great season.
0:07I think both those things could mean that, you know, if my homes had a little bit worse, worse numbers, but if
0:07you give me a little bit of worse numbers on my homes, I know that I can stay away from her.
0:07She writes a little bit better. I can stay away from Xavier worthy a little bit better.
0:07Oh, before we left the short view, I was actually going to ask you about Cyrus Allen.
0:07And one of the reasons I was going to ask you about that is that's another place where some buzz has cropped
0:07up that I think is really pretty relevant. And I think it's pretty relevant because the chiefs often podcast ago, I said,
0:07I thought he was a little interesting. And I, I probably said, I didn't think he was, but I, when I went
0:07through the projection process, this is one of those teams where I was like, this has to be a consolidated team.
0:08I've mentioned the take that Taequann Thornton only had 19 receptions last year.
0:08I gave a little bit of an optimistic Jalen Royals take.
0:08I think when I did the projection pods with the ETE crew, because you're like, there's got to be something else here.
0:08Rashid Rice and Xavier worthy are not dependable. People don't want to take them as high as their profiles probably argue.
0:08They should go because of mostly dependability issues, or they think they suck.
0:08Well, if they suck, then where are the passing numbers going here?
0:08The Travis, uh, Travis Kelsey is also going meaningfully lower.
0:08So part of the homes thing, I think it works both ways.
0:08If he has really high numbers, I think you want to be in on the Casey offense.
0:08I think you have to realize that somebody between rice worthy Kelsey or like Cyrus Allen is going to be a smash.
0:08If my homes actually throws well, I think they're, they're collective, um, ADPs are too low for what my homes probably will be even coming off an ACL.
0:08Even if that pro is not first or second in the league.
0:08My point there is like, it's probably still going to finish top half.
0:08Like, even if they come down and they're run heavier, they're not going to be the Eagles.
0:08They're not going to run like more than anyone in the league, right?
0:08Like that's not where this offense were. It's not what Andy Reed's done since he had Donovan McNabb in Philly.
0:08He was throwing a bunch, you know, to Brian Westbrook out of the backfield.
0:08He's using his backs as receivers. Like he's been using a pass forward offense for 30 years, like 20 years, whatever, however long he's been coaching.
0:08It's been forever. I, and you have Patrick Mahomes.
0:08I know he's coming off an ACL, but I don't think that we're going to get no pass rate out of him.
0:08So I, I think getting the Casey past stuff right is really important, but it's also a consolidated one where if I
0:08get a really positive my homes thing, I have different price points.
0:08I can, I can, I can know to attack rice here.
0:08I can know to attack, uh, Xavier worthy later.
0:08I can know to attack, uh, Cyrus Allen in the late rounds.
0:08Uh, if I get a really poor projection for my homes, I do think it works that way too, because I think
0:08there's a lot of value with Casey, but like, if I got that information, it would help me get off of it
0:08a little bit because both rice and worthy are risky.
0:08And I do see the risk and I don't want to be all in on them necessarily.
0:08So like, if I, if I could find out that my homes had a really bad season, it would get me off
0:08of what I think are probably two pretty good pure values that the market is scared of.
0:08I could, I could be like, all right, I'm scared of him too.
0:08You know? So anyway, that's my pick. All right.
0:08I liked that pick. Uh, he was on my list as well.
0:08Um, I'm like, I've been doing good ones off your list.
0:08I got, I got, I got good stuff on my sheet right there.
0:08Uh, like I've been doing some off the wall picks.
0:08I think this is going to be a less, uh, controversial pick.
0:08Um, I'm pretty sure anyway, I'll take Malik neighbors, um, which is on my list.
0:08You know, like, uh, I mean, I feel like our job as fantasy analysts is to try and be right more often
0:08than not about a lot of things. One of the things I feel the most helpless about is predicting injuries.
0:08Like I have no special area of expertise on this.
0:08So it's really hard for me to have like a very firm take about Malik neighbors because I, I can like give
0:08you all the takes the world about why I think he's one of the best receivers on earth.
0:08Um, and then it's like, well, how healthy is he going to be?
0:08And I don't really know. And it's a matter of like pricing that uncertainty in which, which is obviously part of our job.
0:08But in terms of taking one of these completely like known unknowns off the table, um, knowing if Malik neighbors is going
0:08to be a massive impact this season, uh, would, would do a lot for me.
0:08Cause if I get a huge return, then I just don't have to worry about the second round this year.
0:08He just, I pick every single time. I think that's a fantastic one.
0:08It was going to be one of my early ones.
0:08I'm going to go Kyler Murray. That was my next pick.
0:08Similar to similar to the Mahomes take. You get a lot of information about the offense and Kyler himself obviously is, is really discounted.
0:08If he has big numbers, you know, to take him, but it tells you a lot about Justin Jefferson.
0:08It tells you a lot about Jordan Addison. And they can even tells you about TJ Hawkinson late.
0:08Um, I'm not quite so certain that Juwan Jennings is like super fantasy viable.
0:08Cause last year looked more like his pre 2024 numbers, which was not very fantasy viable from a per route basis.
0:082024 was that big spike season for him, but now he's in an offense where he's like buried as the wide receiver
0:08three behind two really good wide receivers. And part of the reason you bring him in and they brought him in late
0:08and they paid him a limited amount of money.
0:08Part of the reason you bring him in is he's a really good blocker.
0:08He makes a lot of sense as the third receiver in that three receiver set.
0:08He'll do the dirty work. I don't think he's going to have a massive receiving role.
0:08And so that also just means that I think this is going to be a concentrated passing game with Jefferson Addison.
0:08And then I think there's some maybe potential for Hawkinson to still rebound at this point, a couple of years removed from the ACL.
0:08But if I got really good news on Murray, those are the bets that I would be making.
0:08And I think you can make on, on Minnesota.
0:08If I got bad news on Murray, then that means either like he's, he's terrible.
0:08Or like, if the numbers are really low, he got hurt or he got benched.
0:08If he gets benched for JJ McCarthy, I want to be out how McCarthy stats are because you know, they're not going to be good.
0:08That's exactly right. I want to be out on Justin Jefferson.
0:08I want to be out on Jordan Addison. I want to be out on this whole offense.
0:08And yeah, Kyler Murray. Yeah. That one was one where I was, I was torn between Kyler and neighbors.
0:08Now I really wish I picked them with one of my first two picks.
0:08Then I could have got both. But, but with, with Kyler, I, I went through the process of being like, oh, I'm going to pick Kyler.
0:08And then I was like, wait, but what if I don't know whether his low stats mean he was bad or he got benched?
0:08And then I thought about it for one more second.
0:08I was like, well, if he gets benched, it doesn't fucking matter because his whole offense is toast.
0:08If he's bad, he, Kyler. Kyler arguably should have been, I didn't rank mine.
0:08I just put a bunch in a list. Now that we're talking about it, Kyler is arguably the one-on-one in this.
0:08Like this would be a, he would be a, give us, because Kevin O'Connell is still a really good play designer.
0:08He got a great offense out of Sam Donald a couple of years ago.
0:08I still think like there's been a lot of fun on, on the Vikings.
0:08They are cheap. There is the opportunity for this to still be, I think a good offense.
0:08Even if Kyler does have limitations, we all kind of know he does.
0:08It still could be a good offense. They were nine and eight with JJ McCarthy last year.
0:08And like Max Brosmer. Like this is still a team that over the last, over the Kevin O'Connell era has overperformed.
0:08That is the story of the Vikings. They were 14 and three, the one year, and they were clear aggression candidates.
0:08They were nine and eight last year with like just no offensive line and horrendous QB play.
0:08Like how do you go? And like Justin Jefferson wants to quit football.
0:08It's so bad. And you go nine and eight with that.
0:08Like I know the defense was incredible, but I'm just saying like this team has tended to overperform.
0:08The offense wasn't really the overperforming side last year, but the story of these last few years for the Vikings has been
0:08like half decent play out of McCarthy in the end of the year where like, well, I shouldn't say half decent play out of McCarthy.
0:08They got like half decent results at times, despite their quarterback, like over the latter half of the season where like, they
0:08were like finding ways to be like, Oh, like there goes Josh Oliver sprinting open down the sideline, like somehow, or like
0:08they, they couldn't get the ball at all to the good players.
0:08But like Kevin O'Connell was, he was emptying the bag on that.
0:08Um, all right. I'm sensing a run on quarterback here.
0:08I didn't want to be boring. That's why I went neighbors, but, uh, I'm going to, I'm going to take, uh, I'm going to take Daniel Jones.
0:08Um, so he is, uh, yeah, I mean, was fantastic last year.
0:08Coming off of the Achilles. Um, and I think like it's a team with four very fantasy viable players.
0:08I think it's going to be very consolidated on those players.
0:08And if Daniel Jones, um, is playing at the level he was playing last year, like part of the reason I'm, I
0:08really want, um, Jones here is that I have a high degree of confidence in how I'm reading this passing game.
0:08So I would love to know if that matters, right?
0:08Like if, if Daniel Jones just looks terrible off the Achilles, um, or there's not able to recapture the magic, then I
0:08probably don't need to worry that much as about like figuring out the Josh downs, the Tyler Warren and the Alec Pierce.
0:08I certainly have no need to take Jonathan Taylor in the first round.
0:08Um, so I think it's a spot where I would love to know if this offense is going to cook like it cooked last year.
0:08I think you're going to get a pretty decent chunk of information on whether that's the case based on Daniel Jones's numbers.
0:08And then if that's, if I get positive feedback, um, I'm, I'm at least open to Taylor.
0:08I'm taking Josh downs and literally every single draft.
0:08I'm probably taking Tyler Warren a lot too. That's the first one that's not on my list that I think was a really great pick.
0:08So I'll just, I got to give you your props.
0:08That's, that's a really good use of the QB.
0:08He was great in the first, uh, well, neighbors was on my list, but I, and I already gave you crap for Hunter Mendoza.
0:08You've only made three other picks, so it's not like, but, um, Jones was a good one.
0:08I think because he was, I don't think people realize that the Colts going into their by, uh, after the first 10
0:08games, best offense in the league, best offense in the NFL for every team's first 10 games of the year, the Colts had the most totally hearts.
0:08And then they had two more games. And then Daniel Jones tours Achilles.
0:08They were bad games and people were like, yeah, they're regressing.
0:08Their schedule is getting harder, but like it was two games.
0:08You know, they had a couple of down games against tougher D's.
0:08Yes. They played Houston with one of those fibula Jones was yeah.
0:08His last four games, he played with a fractured fibula before he tore his Achilles prior to the Achilles.
0:08I don't remember that. That's yeah. And he was, yeah, like he was like limping around.
0:08Like, I don't remember the chiefs game, but like he could barely move.
0:08He had, it was the, during the Steelers game, he picked up a fracture in his fibula and then he played three
0:08more games, like virtually unable to move. And then he tore his Achilles.
0:08Yeah. Which like, I think partially the Achilles was in part, I think a compensation injury for playing on a broken leg.
0:08But anyways, one of the reasons why I think their efficiency went down is that he was playing on a broken leg for a month.
0:08Totally. That makes perfect sense. I love it. I love it because I like the consolidation of the volume in that past game.
0:08And I like, I feel confident about the way I want to play it, which is downs and Warren more so than peers and Taylor.
0:08You'd get a lot of information about Taylor. If you knew that Daniel Jones played a full healthy season, he would be a great first round pick.
0:08I don't think people realize that Taylor ran the third, third most routes at running back last year, first season over 300 routes.
0:08He went over 400 routes. It was a whole new element to his game last year and his receiving.
0:08It wasn't just like his receiving got bolstered by the Phillip Rivers stuff late because we know Phillip Rivers is a check down guy.
0:08His receiving per game better with Daniel Jones, not including the Jones injury game.
0:08He got hurt in the first quarter better per game with Daniel Jones through the healthy games than it was in the,
0:08you know, starting from the injury game and on in the Phillip Rivers games.
0:08Cause that injury game was mostly played by Riley Leonard.
0:08And I think, I think Taylor had the reason I'm emphasizing that is Taylor had zero catches in that game.
0:08They, right. Like Daniel Jones got hurt in the first quarter and then they like, they went run heavy and they didn't really throw.
0:08And anyway, um, Taylor's receiving, he's more of a dual threat than I think people realize.
0:08Like I saw somebody tweet the other day about some of that optimism about Pete Carmichael and James Cook and the receiving upside for the bills.
0:08I'm not super into that, but they were like, I I've got James Cook's receiving so much higher than I'm putting him over Jonathan Taylor.
0:08And I was like, well, like, what about Jonathan Taylor's receiving?
0:08Cause it's already there. It was there last year and they had Amir Abdullah as the second receiver, uh, or like running
0:08back, like a legit veteran receiving down back. They don't have him anymore.
0:08They're just, they don't have young guys. I mean, they frankly have almost nobody.
0:08I mean, it's like nobody. Jonathan Taylor, for as long as he stays healthy, he's going to lead the, uh, running back
0:08position in snap rate, like him or McCaffrey, but he's going to play a ton.
0:08Taylor's going to play like 93% of snaps in neutral.
0:08The one thing he doesn't have is a great per route receiving role.
0:08He's not going to get a ton of targets.
0:08He's not going to do it. Like, like, they don't, they don't run like angle routes and stuff with him for HM,
0:08but like they will throw screens to him and he will get enough check downs just by virtue of running 25 routes a game.
0:08And again, he never had over 300 routes in a season per PFFs routes data and was over 400 last year.
0:08It was a massive increase that Jacob's telling you with the snaps number, it's going to be there again this year.
0:08He's a really intriguing first round running back that to me is more with the guys at the very top of the position.
0:08I have him in the same tier as Bijon.
0:08I have him in the same tier as Christian McCaffrey.
0:08And then it's those three. And then it's a gap behind them.
0:08So anyway, you'd get a lot of information from this Daniel Jones pick.
0:08I really like it. I'm going to go, cause I'm not just going to take quarterbacks all day.
0:08I'm going to go Omari and Hampton. It's a little bit off the wall.
0:08You do have him on your list. Okay. I really liked the Hampton ceiling scenarios and they're tough that he didn't come out great in my pro projections.
0:08Cause I'm also really high on Keaton Mitchell, but a lot of the stuff we talked about Gadsden and a lot of
0:08the pushback there was, I have been trying to figure out how this offense is going to look.
0:08I do completely agree with you. And part of the way you detailed that the tight ends might just not do much
0:08that it would be very running back heavy and wide receiver heavy.
0:08I think the running backs are going to be very, very involved.
0:08Um, the, the, the, the big stat for Mike McDaniel is that like the last four years all in, in Miami, even
0:08before a Chan was really the main guy dating back to like the re Mostert stuff.
0:08He had X number of, I don't have the number of targets in front of me, but X number of targets, uh, to the running back position.
0:08I don't really do a lot with coaching trends like that, but so much of what McDaniel does is scheme to the
0:08players that he wants the ball to get to.
0:08And he really wanted to get Keaton Mitchell. And obviously you have Omarion Hampton.
0:08That's a superstar. So a big part of the Omarion Hampton play is also Keaton Mitchell.
0:08I'm getting a two for one here. If Hampton doesn't have a great year, I'm all in on, on Keaton Mitchell at that point.
0:08I'm already kind of all in on Keaton Mitchell.
0:08People have, you know, obviously heard that I keep getting tagged every time he does anything in camp, which is quite fun.
0:08Um, but the, the argument would be. Cause you know, McDaniel put up wanted posters for Keaton and all that.
0:08The argument would be, did you know the player he put up a wanted poster for?
0:08Yeah. Alec Ingold. He's going to use that guy too.
0:08It's guys that he has a clear plan for how to use.
0:08He was gonna, he was gonna need a fullback and he, he wanted Alec Ingold, uh, as well.
0:08But, um, I, uh, oh man. Where's the stat?
0:08I got it here somewhere. I'm trying to find the, the running back targets snap, but I'm, I'm struggling to.
0:08Well, I don't, I don't have the running back target stat, but I can give you what is a bit of a
0:08proxy for that, which is they were first, second and fifth in backfield expected fantasy points the last three seasons.
0:08That's great. Yeah. That's a, that's a great proxy for sure.
0:08Um, I did find it at least 114 targets, three straight years there.
0:08Uh, again, some of that's a chance skill set.
0:08I wrote a whole piece about how Keaton Mitchell is similar to that.
0:08I think the other, the, the, the downside for Keaton Mitchell, the concern I have, and the reason I'm not taking Keaton
0:08Mitchell on every single draft is, you know, he has a smaller back and all that.
0:08And Omari and Hampton's a legit, really good profile.
0:08People are concerned about come on. If a doll cutting in Hampton was much better, uh, as far as the peripherals in the same offense last year.
0:08And a lot of the per touch stuff, my, um, pretty strong belief is one of Hampton or Keaton Mitchell is going
0:08to be a really big hit this year. Hampton obviously like goes really high, but he's relatively cheap.
0:08I think he's either going to be a smash at that cost, which is why I'm picking him here to find out
0:08if he is, or if he's not, then I think Keaton Mitchell is going to be a smash.
0:08I think their collective costs is low for what I think the overall running back, uh, production for this backfield would be.
0:08So I get, I get to find that out.
0:08There's a really key one for me. Yeah. I think that is, that's fair.
0:08He was the second highest player on my, my running list here.
0:08Um, I just, I literally just wrote up on Mary Hampton this morning.
0:08I'm doing like this home league redraft guide. It's going to be like, it's going to be even longer than this fricking
0:08podcast, but, um, but, uh, but I just wrote up Hampton.
0:08I said, I thought he was one of the most important players to get right.
0:08I thought he was a, a pretty big boom bust profile.
0:08Um, but a guy that I, I have ranked higher in my home league redraft rankings that I do in like best
0:08ball where I'm a little bit more floor focused.
0:09I think he has massive, massive upside. I'd totally be a league winner, um, coming in that range.
0:09And, um, I'm going to stick with second year running backs.
0:09You stole Hampton from me. I will take Trevion Henderson.
0:09Yeah. He was the very first person I wrote down when I thought of this concept.
0:09I didn't think he was like a first round pick, but he's a good one.
0:09Go ahead. Yeah. I mean, part of this is just that, uh, I mean, there you could, you could use this for
0:09honestly a few guys in this range, but I think get it.
0:09We talked about the running back dead zone on our second show.
0:09I think I would love to know if there's going to be a huge hit from the running back dead zone this year and who it is.
0:09I don't feel like I need to know that much information on like the Andre Swift and David Montgomery.
0:09Like, I feel like I know what they're going to be, but like, um, it's Henderson and maybe another couple of guys
0:09that maybe I'll get to, um, if, if I knew that one of these guys was going to be a massive hit,
0:09um, that would, would definitely impact how I build my draft plan.
0:09It would make me more interested in drafting a Brock Bowers in round two, a Malik neighbors in round two at the
0:09expense of, um, you know, trying to start running back, running back, be more open to wide receiver in round one.
0:09Um, it would just, it would open up a lot of things structurally for me.
0:09If I knew there was like a massive hit Trevion Henderson season waiting for me in round five.
0:09Um, and then also if, if Henderson's numbers were like terrible, um, then Ramond Ray Stevenson becomes, you know, a pretty interesting
0:09play because it's probably going to be one of those two.
0:09Um, and you know, if they're middling, then, then I guess, whatever, obviously for all these picks, you want something to be
0:09at the extremes to give you the most information possible.
0:09But, um, so you do get a bit of the two for one element.
0:09I think you get a structural element and it's a situation that I think is, is challenging for me to evaluate.
0:09So I would really value the, the information because I think Henderson's pretty darn good.
0:09I don't know for sure how the coaching staff is going to play it.
0:09And that I would love to get that info.
0:09Oh, you're on mute, Ben. Whoops. Love that. Love the Ramond Ray info as well.
0:09Um, agree with you about the, the dead zone impact.
0:09The, he was the first name I met. I wrote, as I mentioned, the second name was another, another guy that I'm
0:09not going to take, but similar, uh, concept. Uh, I'm right now I'm going to take Jamison Williams.
0:09I think Jamison Williams is potentially one of the most interesting players, uh, in fantasy this year.
0:09We talked about him, I think on the last pod, you are not quite as high.
0:09I, I was just looking at some stuff, uh, from my stealing signals spreadsheet that I have.
0:09It's a weekly basis and it's got, you know, all the weekly numbers and for, in terms of average route share at
0:09wide receiver, for whatever reason, I was on that, um, as I was kind of preparing some stuff for the season, Jamison
0:09Williams had the second highest average route share. It was like 97% or whatever.
0:09I think behind only Jamar chase last year, all the other guys that high, like the upper nineties are the superstars.
0:09I don't think again, people are weighing enough that he went from like 475 routes in his third year, which was really
0:09his first year as a full-time player, uh, which was 2024 all the way up to 600 plus routes last year.
0:09And that they basically don't have anything really behind him.
0:09I don't think Isaac Tesla is like that meaningful.
0:09Um, and then you have, you know, the Laporta impact and some other things.
0:09If he had a really bad year, I would be in on Laporta.
0:09I'd be that much more in on Gibbs. Gibbs is one that I would consider for this exercise.
0:09The problem with Gibbs relative to me mentioning CMC earlier, well, the problem with Gibbs is that the information is actionable.
0:09Uh, one out of 12 times. One out of 12 times.
0:09Exactly. And if he has a massive year, you're maybe a little bit off the other lions.
0:09The lines are another very concentrated offense. If Jamison Williams has a really bad year, I'm that much more in on Gibbs as the clear one-on-one.
0:09I'm that much more in on Almond Ross St.
0:09Brown. I'm that much more in on Laporta. Cause I really do think it's going to be those four guys for a lot of it.
0:09But I think Jamison's the big, big winner here.
0:09I would, he, to be honest with you, he would be probably higher on my list if it wasn't for like the
0:09little quirks of like the QB stuff with like Kyler Murray and my homes and stuff.
0:09What Williams to me is like for the, for the, for the, the spirit of this idea, which is like what you
0:09were doing when you took Hunter and stuff. It's like, who are the players that we just want to know and it
0:09would just like help us for our like presence of mind a little bit.
0:09Jamison Williams is that guy. I really see it for him as this could be the career season that he had.
0:09I don't, I think people are misunderstanding how volatile his first few years were.
0:09The fact that we've had a quiet off season, we've had a couple quiet years where there hasn't been bad vibes.
0:09Like there was with the suspension stuff and the, the like internal stuff and, um, like moping on the sidelines really in his career a little bit.
0:09And there was stuff where like Dan Campbell was getting asked about his body language all the time.
0:09And we would talk about a couple of years ago, talk about Jamison Williams vibes being the worst that anyone could ever remember.
0:09This guy has completely turned his career around. He had the second highest route share of any receiver in the NFL last year.
0:09He is now a reliable part of a really good offense.
0:09He's a good blocker. They compliment him on all that stuff.
0:09The big issue with last year was the first half of the year.
0:09He was kind of forgotten about Laporta had a really big first half second half of the year.
0:09Great post by. And when Laporta was out, he paced for over 1400 yards, including one of his goose egg games where
0:09he had zero catches throw that in there. He still was pacing for 1400 yards.
0:09And there's only a few receivers that have 1400 yard seasons anymore.
0:09I mean, that's an elite, elite season. This is my like George Pickens of this year.
0:09I was really in on Pickens last year. I was like, people don't realize how the profile in Pittsburgh is going to
0:09translate to the situation in Dallas and all these things are going to come together.
0:09And this is the career season like as a fifth round pick wide receiver.
0:09I've been saying that about Jamison. I saw that with Pickens in the projections.
0:09And I was like, this is clear to me.
0:09I was massively with you on Pickens. I'm not on the Jamison one, but I massively.
0:09Yeah, I could be wrong. When I say that, it's not like, oh, I'm always wrong on these things, but I'm getting
0:09that same feeling that I got with Pickens where it's like, when I went through the projections, what I'm seeing over the
0:09years and how this has progressed, this is the year where if you're fading Williams, what I would say to somebody like,
0:09I don't think you're completely fading him, but to somebody who's really out on him, if he runs 600 routes again, you
0:09better be really confident that that targets per route is going to stay really low because he's so efficient per target.
0:09He's great ball in hand. He's not just a deep threat like some of these other guys that I've been out on,
0:09like Christian Watson, Alec Pierce and stuff. Williams does so much more ball in hand, yak per reception and all that.
0:09And his ADOT's lower. And it has been the last two years.
0:09They've been using him more creatively if, if they, uh, if he runs that many routes, which I expect he will, I, there's no like clear third receiver.
0:09Um, in fact, you Isaac Tesla is being passed by Greg Dorch.
0:09Apparently that's hilarious. The, the targets per route was a career low last year.
0:09The routes went way up to 600. The targets per route was a career low.
0:09You, you better, and it was better in the second half when LaPorta was out.
0:09You better be really confident. It's going to stay down at like 16%.
0:09Cause if that targets per route is even like 18, 19%.
0:09Jamison Williams is going to be smashed, dude. If it's at 20, 21%, he's, he's a top five wide.
0:09Like he, I think he could threaten Almond Ross production is like part of like what I can see from the season.
0:09Cause he's so much more efficient. Almond Ross is going to get way more volume, but like he's like yardage wise.
0:09They could, I think he'd be being like Pickens lamb last year.
0:09Yes. Yeah. And I think they could be similar in yardage, even with Jamison being a lot lower receptions and, and, and
0:09the Almond Ross would still have a good season in this scenario, but yes, it would be a lot like Pickens land.
0:09That's a great, uh, a great, obviously to continue the Pickens, uh, corollary, but yeah, I, and then, and then to the,
0:09to the point of this game, if we find out that Jamison Williams had 700 yards, I'm like, dude, I'm smashing the other lines.
0:09Cause it's a concentrated offense. Yep. I think that's a great pick.
0:09And I, you've been selling me a bit on Jamison.
0:09He's also goes, um, it's so interesting because I actually think a lot of these price differences are like actually like very wrong.
0:09Um, but he, um, anyway, he goes a lot cheaper in a redraft than he does in best ball.
0:09So as I turn my focus from best ball to redraft, uh, I'm getting a lot more interested in Jamison Williams.
0:09Like I haven't, I haven't ranked solidly above, um, market in my FFPC rankings.
0:09I expect he'll be the same in my home league rankings.
0:09And, and, uh, you've gotten me much, much more excited about the upside scenario with him for sure.
0:09Um, I think that's a great pick. Um, I will pick, I mean, I'm just going to, I'm going to do the
0:09exact same thing that I just did with Trevion.
0:09So it's kind of lame, but I don't care.
0:09Um, I'll take my dude. Yeah, he's the other one.
0:09I already started typing it before I even said it.
0:09So you knew exactly where I was going with that.
0:09He's, he was the other one that I wrote as the, the second guy, but yes.
0:09He's a great one. Yeah. I mean, you get the Chris Rodriguez.
0:09I thought you were going to chat about it, but you get the Chris Rodriguez info.
0:09You get the Jacksonville offense info. If he has a big year, you know, the offense was good.
0:09I think you can ascertain some interesting stuff about their wide receivers from that.
0:09If he has a bad year, I mean, Chris Rodriguez is a smash.
0:09If, if he has a good year, you're doing so much about the dead zone.
0:09And I mean, Liam Cohen, Liam Cohen backfield is so valuable.
0:09Like I just love the way this guy uses running backs.
0:09I think you're, I agree. This is like, I think there's going to be probably a winner here.
0:09Um, especially because the price discrepancy is so, the price discrepancy is so vast that if Tootin was like terrible, um, even
0:09if C-Rod's like true ceiling is not nearly as high as Tootin's, I think he could still be a massive hit at cost where he's currently going.
0:09Um, and yeah, Tootin, I think has the upside of being one of the defining players this year.
0:09So I'll, I'll take him. You're back up. I'm going to Jordan Tyson.
0:09Good one. We got the hamstring issue. We got a fun offense in, uh, new Orleans.
0:09Um, we know that they're going to be a little bit uptempo that Tyler shocks good enough to support some weapons.
0:09Uh, we just talked about the dearth of late round tight end options.
0:09I think you, if you find out that Jordan Tyson has a really bad rookie year, I think you have to be pretty in on Juwan Johnson.
0:09Totally. Um, the Chris Alave information, obviously I've been pretty out on Alave because of Tyson.
0:09And I think Tyson could potentially even be close to overtaking him towards the back end of the year, which is a problem for how high Alave goes.
0:09Um, I like Tyson at his cost. And if I find out that he had even like 800 yards, if that's back
0:09weighted, then I'll be, I'll be happy. Uh, if I find out that he had like 400 yards, then I'm, I'm probably
0:09willing to take Alave and I'm smashing Juwan, I think.
0:09Um, but yeah, I mean, there's a possibility that it's like 1200 yards.
0:09I mean, that's, he's a top 10 overall pick.
0:09Like there's, you could have a monster rookie year.
0:09There's a possibility. He's like the key to the season, right?
0:09That's why we draft rookie receivers. All right. I got a couple of games on my list that are like higher than
0:09the guy I'm about to take, but, um, a couple of them are similar to guys I've already taken.
0:09A couple of them are similar to guys you've already taken.
0:09So I gotta go somewhere a little bit different and have some fun.
0:09I can guarantee you this guy's not on your list.
0:09I'll take Malik Willis. Okay. Um, and I think he's, I like it for, I think he's interesting for a couple of reasons.
0:09Um, I'm bearish on the Malik Willis experience. Um, but like I'm open-minded.
0:09I mean, the whole point about Malik Willis is we barely see them do anything.
0:09So I think, I think it would be tough to have.
0:09Bearish, bearish, but open-minded confidence. Yeah. I'm bearish, but open-minded.
0:09I don't know if you want that on a dating profile.
0:09Well, I'm not looking to date Malik Willis, so it's probably going to be okay.
0:09Um, I think the biggest impact for me, it would be twofold.
0:09I mean, one, if the stats are great, then I don't need to worry about early quarterback this year because the ceiling
0:09on him would be so high if you get the rushing volume that you get that, and he's available in every single draft.
0:09So if you just get like an awesome result on Malik Willis, my quarterback plan is solved for 2026.
0:09Um, and if you get a pretty, like way more optimistic than I'm projecting passing result, then Devon Achan goes from a
0:09guy who I'm currently fading to a guy that I'm looking to jam.
0:09Um, because I do think he's one of the most talented players in the NFL.
0:09And I think he is, is like, would be an absolute smash given the lack of targets around him.
0:09But for my complete lack of confidence in Malik Willis to lead a reasonable volume passing offense and reasonable play volume offense.
0:09So I think I get a lot of information about how to play quarterback this year.
0:09If in the unlikely event, it's super positive. And I either get information that kind of confirms my desire to fade probably
0:09one of my four or five favorite players in like the history of the NFL, um, or to, uh, actually go ahead and target Devon Achan.
0:09And also if the stats are really good, then I feel like I want to take like a lot of late darts on.
0:09I mean, I wouldn't know who it's going to be, but like, what, what if I get the result of like, Oh,
0:09he threw for 3,700 yards this year. Like I'm taking Greg Dulcich in every draft and I'm probably at least taking some random darts on like their ridiculous.
0:09Yeah. Probably the rookie receivers. I think that's a great one.
0:09Cause if you did find out some stuff about the past volume, I'm, I'm also open.
0:09I'm also bearish and open-minded on Malik Willis. Um, if you got really great rushing numbers, you'd know you could take him.
0:09I think that's a great one. I think it's a great one.
0:09Cause you learn a lot about the offense and an offense that's really underpriced.
0:09I'm not taking a chance. I'm not playing this offense really at all, but you could talk me into playing it.
0:09If I knew Malik Willis had some good stats.
0:09So I do, uh, really like that one as well.
0:09I'm looking at. You're getting back on my wavelength after those first two picks.
0:09Those, those threw you off, but we're, Oh no.
0:09Every pick you've made since then has been a great pick.
0:09They've either been on my list or the two quarterbacks were not, but they were good QBs.
0:09The, I mean, the first two were just objectively bad picks.
0:09That's, that's your bad. You, you galbrained this game way too early in the first and second round.
0:09No, um, I'm going to go, I'm going to go Makai Lemon for the same, like a very similar reason to Jordan Tyson.
0:09Yeah. Uh, I think lemon's an incredibly good prospect.
0:09I think we would learn, uh, a lot about Devonta Smith who I'm currently fading and I'm, I'm really jamming lemon.
0:09We'd learn a lot about Dallas Goddard. Um, if lemon had a really, really bad year, then maybe I would be willing to take some Dallas Goddard.
0:09I'm currently fading. Um, if you had a really bad year, maybe I'd be willing to take some Saquon Barkley.
0:09I'm currently fading. I'm not really into this offense very much, but, um, well, I guess if, if Makai Lemon had a,
0:09yeah, if Makai Lemon had a bad year, I'd be willing to consider more pieces of it.
0:09Um, it would just be really helpful to me because I'm kind of expecting him to really have a strong year in
0:09an offense that doesn't do a lot. Um, and if he had any, even I'm not ranking him massively high because it's
0:09like, again, this offense doesn't leave a lot out there for its skill players sometimes because of the Jalen Hertz effect.
0:09Um, if he had like 800 yards again, I, I think that's really challenging for everyone else, uh, at their costs.
0:09Cause Barkley goes really high. Devonta Smith goes really high.
0:09He's going, Devonta Smith's going right after that, like sort of big tier break in, in my rankings.
0:09So right after the, the elite receivers drop off, there's Devonta Smith, whatever it is, wide receiver 13.
0:09It's like, man, that he's not the 13th best receiver this season for fantasy football.
0:09In my mind, when he has that good of a rookie receiver behind him, you could boost him up because AJ Brown's gone and all that.
0:09But, um, anyway, I would learn a lot about that though.
0:09I might be into it if I knew that Makai Lemon had a really bad rookie year.
0:09Yeah, I didn't have, I didn't have Lemon on my list.
0:09I had Smith on my list. Um, but for very similar reasons.
0:09And, uh, I think Lemon is a great pick there.
0:09Um, I will, we can only do it. We can do a few more rounds of this.
0:09I don't want to get like too repetitive where we're just like taking like a million, but I, uh, I'll take Devonta Adams.
0:09Um, and, uh, I think he's one that is, it's part, part of the reason I'm taking Adams is for Adams sake,
0:09who I'm not really taking, but like, Hey, if the, if the, if the, if the Oracle comes back and tells me
0:09he's catching 14 touchdowns again, I'll change that. Um, but one of the reasons is that, uh, I think if the stats
0:09were like crazy big, then I know that Puka got hurt probably.
0:09Uh, and that would drastically change how I play the first round.
0:09And then also if they were really bad, then my guy who I've taken on almost every team, um, this year that
0:09I have done a redraft on Terrence Ferguson is just like even more of a priority.
0:09Um, cause I, I mean, part of the reason why I'm so bullish on T for is I tend to, I'm guessing
0:09Adams is a little closer to wash than not.
0:09And it wouldn't surprise me if the Rams had to find a secondary option and T for gets, uh, installed as a
0:10far larger piece of the passing game than imaginable.
0:10And like, we were just talking about how dire the tight end position is late.
0:10I think he could be a real like joker in the deck that completely changes how the tight end position pans out this year.
0:10So I feel like I'm getting information on three players with, with Devante Adams.
0:10Um, and I, I guess the, the one way that this goes really, really badly is if I get really poor information
0:10on Adams, I start clicking a bunch of Puka and a T Ferg.
0:10And then I realized the reason why Adams is a city season is Matthew Stafford's like back fucked up or whatever.
0:10And they all have to catch past from Ty Simpson this year.
0:10But anyways, I'm going to, I'm going to hope that's not the case.
0:10Oh, that's that. That's kind of funny. Um, I hadn't thought of that.
0:10I thought it was a great pick until you said that now, no, no, no, no, I'm just kidding.
0:10No, I thought, I think that's a great pick.
0:10Very concentrated offense. And the direct Terrence Ferguson tie-in, even after you took the pick, I was like, yeah, you'd learn a lot about Puka.
0:10Um, and you learn a lot about Adams himself.
0:10I mean, he could be a reasonable pick if he scores a bunch of touchdowns again, but the Ferguson tie-in as well.
0:10I think that's a really strong pick. Great eighth round pick.
0:10Better than your first or second round pick. Should have been your first.
0:10I'm going to take Jane Daniels. Not because I care all that much about all of the players in his offense that
0:10he would impact, but because I want to take a lot of late round quarterbacks this year.
0:10There's a lot of upside QBs. But if Jane Daniels scored like 26, 27, 28 points per game, I mean, it could be Daniels or Lamar here.
0:10I, I, I would just take them both and maybe I'll just take more on my list.
0:10Yeah. Yeah. I mean, either of them, these are the two guys to me.
0:10Josh Allen was a QB one last year. People get mad at me that I don't give him the props.
0:10He scored almost four points per game. Less in FFPC scoring than Lamar Jackson as the QB one in 2024.
0:10There were four QBs that scored more than, than Josh Allen.
0:10He continues to score as the QB one or the QB two almost every year.
0:10That consistency is great. He deserves to go high, but I'm not from an opportunity cost standpoint.
0:10I'm not taking a quarterback early unless they can gap the field because what happened last year when he finishes the QB
0:10one is Drake may and Matthew Stafford were very close to him.
0:10And so structurally you would have preferred to take him Drake may or Matthew Stafford from the later rounds or the late
0:10season Brock Purdy stuff or Trevor Lawrence stuff. If you pick that up off the waiver wire or you had him in
0:10best ball or whatever, those were the things that won late round QB one because Josh Allen didn't massively gap everyone.
0:10It doesn't mean he was a bust. He was an overall QB one, but what I want to know about early QB
0:10ADPs and particularly Daniels, who's got the cheaper ADP.
0:10That's why I took him before Lamar. It's just that he's a, he's cheaper.
0:10He's a discounted version of the play is do they hit a real ceiling?
0:10Because last year, if either Daniels or Lamar stayed healthy and hit a ceiling, if Lamar hit his 2024 year, if Daniels
0:10hit what I think his 2024 year sort of could have been, if you factor in what he did in the post-season,
0:10he played a couple of three post-season games and you take out the game that he left early with injury.
0:10So like in his rookie year, he left that one game really early with a chest injury after a long run.
0:10I think it was against the Panthers. It was right away.
0:10He played like five, seven, eight snaps, whatever. And then he played hurt the next couple of weeks.
0:10If you do some factoring in what Daniel ceiling really looked like his rookie year and in the healthy games and into
0:10those post-season games, his points per game were very similar to Lamar's and they were scaling up late in that year where
0:10they were really letting him throw a lot more.
0:10And he was doing a lot more as a passer late in 2024, 2025, obviously injured, misses time, comes back, not as effective.
0:10They had some weird game flows where they're like protecting him and they pulled them out of games, even though he didn't
0:10get like the Minnesota game, their team just kind of got destroyed.
0:10And then they kind of took him out of the game just to kind of protect him.
0:10It was a lost season. And I think his ceiling is up there.
0:10If you look at the like rushing rates, I actually projected him for the most carries per game.
0:10Both Allen's and Jalen Hurts have come down a little bit and Lamar's have come down a little bit.
0:10I think there's some potential for regression positively for those guys as well.
0:10But Jane Daniels is the one that is still young enough.
0:10And the first two years had rush attempts per game numbers that are like, he has the potential to run a lot
0:10more than those guys, a lot more than most every other QB, other than maybe like Malik Willis matches him or something.
0:10But Daniels also could have the QB, like the passing numbers with it that Willis does not project for.
0:10And so in terms of the real ceiling scoring potential, I think he's playable early.
0:10I don't want to structurally, but if I found out that he scored a ton of points, it would also give me
0:10good information on Terry McLaurin, potentially Stefan Diggs, some other guys in this, in this offense.
0:10But the main thing would be, it would teach me a lot about what I would want to do at quarterback.
0:10Yeah. I totally agree. I, uh, I had Jaden high on my list and I also had Lamar high on my list and yeah, I'll just take Lamar.
0:10Um, he was my top player remaining. He was already gonna be my next pick.
0:10Um, part of the reason why I maybe lean the case that you made for Daniels being more important than Lamar.
0:10Um, I thought it was really compelling because I actually had Lamar higher and then you probably changed my mind on that.
0:10But the reason why I originally was more excited to take Lamar is that Jaden Daniels.
0:10I, I do feel like it's more about Jaden Daniels.
0:10Um, I, I have a lot of conviction on Zay this year.
0:10And the nice thing about Lamar that I like is that like, if he has a massive year, there's not a lot
0:10of other ways that that can go other than that Zay has a massive year.
0:10And I also feel like it works the other way around.
0:10Like if you're telling me Lamar has a massive year, like Zay's not getting injured this year.
0:10Cause I don't think Lamar is having an awesome year.
0:10If his top options are Mark Andrews and a couple of rookies.
0:10So I, I feel like those two are like two of the most correlated players to one another in, in all of fantasy football.
0:10Um, and I get to know how to play the, I get to know how to play the quarterback position this year
0:10to, for the same reasons you mentioned with Jaden Daniels.
0:10Um, and then I also feel like I get to know whether I get to confirm or deny whether to be really
0:10in on kind of one of my favorite receiver picks this year.
0:10I love that as well. And yeah, just to be clear, you were saying that I convinced you to take like Daniels first in this.
0:10I, I correct. Yeah. No, no, not, not above Lamar.
0:10I was like, I had both those guys like at the top of my list.
0:10I had Lamar than Jay. Yeah. And, uh, and you were like, yeah, I should have actually had Jaden higher, but I'm
0:10still ranking Jaden Daniels are higher than Jaden in fantasy, but I also really like Jaden in fantasy.
0:10Yeah. He's just a little cheaper too. So you get that as well.
0:10Yeah. Yeah. I still have Jaden Daniels as my, my QB three.
0:10I do. I did put Lamar one. Um, Alan does, I think deserves to be up there.
0:10I just have a tier of three, those top three guys, but like Jaden is the only quarterback in of the top.
0:10Like I haven't done my, I haven't gotten there yet in my draft guide and I haven't read yours yet.
0:10So I don't know if I'm stealing or not, but, um, um, but I, Jaden will be the only early quarterback that
0:10I will list with the target destinations here. Yeah.
0:10I did not put them as a target just specifically because I think you want to play late round QB, but obviously
0:10ranking him in a tier with Lamar and Alan a tier above guys that are going ahead of him in ADP, like
0:10Joe Burrow and Drake may sort of implies that he's a target.
0:10Yeah. Um, yeah, she's not, not a target. Right.
0:10Right. So I'm going to go, I got two picks that I really like here that are kind of correlated to, we'll go, we'll go to 12.
0:10So you get four left. We'll make this natural number and fancy football.
0:10I can't stop. I can't finish this draft without taking Xavier worthy for, for 0.1 seconds.
0:10I was like, is he taking Xavier? Like get, I would learn so much.
0:10No, Xavier worthy is the pick. I was like, price.
0:10You want to talk about Fernando Mendoza's waste of it.
0:10You think Xavier, like that dude. I love that.
0:10Xavier worthy is, uh, insanely cheap. Um, for what his profile theoretically could be.
0:10I understand it's theoretical, but this is exercise where I get to learn actual information.
0:10If he has a really bad year, I would be pretty in on Rasheed Rice early.
0:10Cause I think you'd have to be, I'd be pretty in on Cyrus Allen.
0:10It's similar to some of the Mahomes talk earlier.
0:10I don't think they have a lot of other shows in town.
0:10And I do think they're still going to throw to some degree.
0:10Like they're, they're not going to just be happy to not make the playoffs again this year.
0:10They were one of the most dominant dynasties in all football for several years in a row.
0:10They had a horrible year last year, even before the ACL for Mahomes.
0:10They're going to come out gunning a little bit this year.
0:10They're going to try to win games. And if worthy's bad, like I still think they're going to be throwing.
0:10I still think they're going to be trying to put up numbers.
0:10I still think so. I'd be taking Kelsey. I'd be taking rice.
0:10I'd be taking guys. I don't want to take Travis Kelsey, but this team is so thin that I think there's a
0:10possibility that Travis Kelsey is a reasonable pick at like tight end 10 or whatever.
0:10So Xavier, but Xavier worthy is mostly about, I want to know what Xavier worthy's do.
0:10It's kind of like the Jameson Williams thing where it's like, I just want to know what his season was.
0:10It would help me think through a lot of different things, whether I can push wide receiver a little bit and all these things.
0:10Cause I still think there is a ceiling enough of a, I mean, I'm, I'm more down on Xavier worthy than I was last year to be clear.
0:10It's, it's not even close. I'm not as interested in having him on my teams at all, but it's a little bit
0:10like what I did with Kyle pits for multiple years early in his career where it's like, I don't think the thesis is gone.
0:10And he, the whole market is way out on the player.
0:10Now they're like completely out on a guy who is in a big routes role in an offense.
0:10That's going to pass a lot that has a good quarterback that historically has a good coordinator.
0:10We talked about in the last show. I was, when we were talking about worthy and rice, I was like, well, then
0:10what are you doing with the chiefs? And you, you think you made a compelling case that maybe any reads just done.
0:10And, and those are interesting, you know, angles as well, but the Xavier worthy at like wide receiver 45 or something like
0:10you guys are going to make me be back in on him.
0:10I want to know what he did. I just to save myself.
0:10I think that's fair. Non-derogatory. That's fair. Uh, I'm going to take a guy that I, I bet someone is listening to
0:10this screaming and asking why we haven't taken this guy yet.
0:10Um, but I'll take Jonathan Brooks. Oh, that's a really good one that I honestly hadn't even thought, but somebody should be
0:10screaming at us for not taking him yet. That's a good one.
0:10I told you. Yeah. Cause as we got, I didn't have mom.
0:10I didn't have him on my list. I completely blank.
0:10And then like about a minute ago, I was like, wait, why haven't we taken this guy yet?
0:10Because yeah, he's a running back to literally nobody knows what he is.
0:10He's the biggest black box of fantasy. He's steaming up boards.
0:10Um, I think he fits what you want in this game, which is like, if not him, then who, which is yeah.
0:10Like either Jonathan, either Jonathan Brooks is like Brooks is one of the picks that is most likely to either be like
0:10a smash or like one of the funniest things we ever did as a community.
0:10Um, like when we look back on this in multiple years, like I think the rate of outcomes is so wide.
0:10Um, I don't love Chuba, but like if, if the report back on Brooks is like, no, he had 40 carries this
0:10year, or I guess I don't know that, but I would know he had 200 yards.
0:10Um, then, then like, yeah, I do unfortunately have to take Chuba Hubbard a lot.
0:10And, um, I think that with Brooks, like he's a guy that has, has, I think the potential to be a legitimate
0:10league winner or the potential to be like one of the worst picks in years.
0:10So I would like to have that information. I don't, I guess I disagree with the, the thing that it would be
0:10like funny in hindsight, or he'd be one of the worst picks in years or whatever.
0:10Like he's, his price is what it is. It's, it's discounted to your point about him being a league winner.
0:10It's discounted to what his profile is. His profile is similar to Jeremiah loves, but he's missed two years.
0:10And so, yeah, we're concerned as far as like, um, and I, I know I said that earlier in the show about
0:10Marshawn Lloyd, but, uh, Brooks is the one that's actually really similar where evasion rate yards after contact per attempt.
0:10Breakaway run rate yards per route run as a receiver.
0:10All these peripherals are like, they're a touch below love.
0:10I think he's a little higher in the evasion rate and a little bit lower than the other three.
0:10Now he had a lot fewer touches. And so when love is able to maintain that over a longer sample, it's much
0:10more meaningful, but like Jonathan Brooks was the top running back taken in his class.
0:10He was a second round pick for a reason off an ACL.
0:10The Panthers wanted to wait, but might've been a late first if he was coming in.
0:10Right. Yeah. He might've been a first rounder. They wanted to wait on him anywhere.
0:10They were willing to wait on him anyway. Um, use the second round pick knowing they were going to have to wait probably a year.
0:10And then they ended up having to wait two years, but this is a team that has had intent with this player and his interest in this player.
0:10I, I, I, I guess I don't, I hear that, that, that theory on him that like, we should just know that he's bad because of the injury.
0:10It's like, dude, what? Look at his profile. We're looking for outliers.
0:10Like, this is a guy that's going way discounted to he's better profile wise, capital wise and everything than Basial Tootin, then
0:10all those dudes in the, in the dead zone.
0:10He's going behind them because of the injury stuff.
0:10We're getting the discount. We make risk adjusted bets.
0:10We're getting that discount. We might be wrong. He might be a zero, but it's not a dumb play.
0:10I mean, you make your bets, you know, I mean, I'm willing to make that bet a little bit personally.
0:10And so anyway, I think it's a great, a great one.
0:10I said to you, right. We jumped on air that I hadn't really looked through the one position I hadn't really looked through was the running back position.
0:10I thought that was like this, the dumbest thing.
0:10Probably a lot of people are screaming at their, their, their, uh, podcast saying, why aren't you guys naming more running backs?
0:10Cause it's a very important position to know whether guys stayed healthy.
0:10We probably should have just named a bunch of early running backs like Jeremiah love and like breeze hall and all these things.
0:10I mean, that's probably the way to play this.
0:10I am going to go with one right now.
0:10I'm going to go with the late running back.
0:10I'm going to go with Marshawn Lloyd. That's fun.
0:10Yeah. I just think, I mean, whatever, who cares?
0:10We're playing a silly game. I just thought of him when you said Brooks, because it's a, another really fun prospect profile.
0:10That's very injury related. It would give us a lot of information on Josh Jacobs.
0:10Um, it wouldn't really, if he had a really bad year, it wouldn't give us a ton of information on Josh Jacobs,
0:10frankly, cause they could both get hurt. It could be a James Conner, Trey Benson situation fairly easily.
0:10Um, but if he has a really good year, we like Josh Jacobs limps along the 3.7 yards per carry all season
0:10and you could have survived them, but you didn't need them.
0:10Yeah. It's probably better to take Josh Jacobs in this draft, but I don't draft Josh Jacobs in any kind of a draft.
0:10So I can't take him in this one either, but he would, it would make more sense to take him cause you
0:10would know whether or not he had a good year.
0:10And then if he had a bad year, you'd know to take Lloyd, but I'm just going to draft Lloyd.
0:10I want, I want Lloyd cause you're not taking Jacobs anyway.
0:10So who cares if you get information on Jacobs, right?
0:10You can tell me at 2000 yards, I still wouldn't draft.
0:10All right. I I've going to do the exact opposite of what I did an hour ago when I was like, look,
0:10I'm not taking this exercise too literally. I'm doing it figuratively.
0:10Now I'm going to take it really literally because I think what you, what you actually, the most advantageous player to know something about would be a player.
0:10I think going in the late second round, because they're available to you if you have an early draft slot, but if
0:10you've got a really positive information on them, you can just take them at the opposite turn.
0:10So no matter what draft slot you get, you're getting access to this player at a really high leverage opportunity cost.
0:10And this is a player that fits that and a player that I think has a very wide range of outcomes.
0:10So I'll take the big dog, Derek Henry. Derek Henry.
0:10Very interesting one. Cause it also, if you find out that he got hurt, I think you're, you're more in on Lamar.
0:10You're more in on. You're more in on making shots at Adam Randall.
0:10You're taking Adam Randall late. Yeah, dude. I like the big dog.
0:10They're also probably just going to sign a veteran running back when that happens.
0:10But I think it opens up a lot. It totally changes what you think of their offense.
0:10And then like, if it's an absolute smash, I think his ADP is like 22 or something right now.
0:10So if it's an absolute smash, then that's just your second round pick.
0:10You don't know. No matter what draft slot you get, that's your second round pick.
0:10If he has 1800 rushing yards and you know, 17 TDs, which we know he can do, then I'm just drafting him in the second round.
0:10And I'm happy about that. I mean, that's a great call.
0:11Yeah. The veteran I realized that it's going to be on the Ravens.
0:11If Derek Henry gets hurt is Austin Eckler. That's, that's where Austin Eckler winds up in the second half of the year.
0:11It'll be a nice, it'll be a nice committee between Austin Eckler and Najee Harris and Najee Harris.
0:11There's another good one. Yeah. I mean, after all the Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman and all the other.
0:11Lev Bell. God, I forgot he was them. He was wearing number 17 on that team.
0:11Good Lord. Yeah. Kenny and Drake is on that team.
0:11I'm going to do, God, I love the running backs.
0:11I want to just keep drafting running backs forever.
0:11I'm just going to add an extra couple of rounds.
0:11Why not? Yeah. We may, we may need to add a couple extra.
0:11I want to do Jadarian Price next. We talked about him on the running back show.
0:11So he's a, he's a strong, um, like again, talent-based bet where I, I, there's a lot of uncertainty.
0:11If we find out that it's a bad year, it unlocks some other plays.
0:11Like we, you might want to take Charbonnet later.
0:11You might want to even consider some George Helani late or whatever.
0:11Um, but the other like major thing is like, if, if he has a strong year, I think you can just take
0:11over the whole backfield and be a really big hit in this range.
0:11So you, you'd have a really big, uh, piece of information about the dead zone, similar to your Henderson and Tootin conversation.
0:11I love that pick. Um, this guy's been top of my board for like eight rounds.
0:11I've just avoided doing it because it's so similar to your literal first pick, but I'll take Luther burden.
0:11Um, which I think is like for very similar reasons to why you took Colson Loveland.
0:11Um, but I, I think that, uh, what I like about your Loveland pick slightly more is, is you get the, the
0:11positional knowledge certainly, but I also have so much confidence in in Colson Loveland that like if Luther burdens, if, if, if
0:11I get back bad information on Luther burden, I'm, I'm prepared to just take that as positive information about Colson level.
0:11Obviously you could get hurt or something. Maybe they both get hurt, but I think one of the reasons that would explain
0:11why Luther burden had, um, like of the three bears, I'll put it this way of the three bears.
0:11He's the one I'm most uncertain about. Like I have a lot of conviction that Loveland is really good.
0:11I have somewhat conviction that Rome is not bad, but not a difference maker.
0:11Um, burden is the one I have the least conviction about in either direction.
0:11So it's the one where I think the information is the most meaningful to me, except for the point that you made,
0:11which is like when you get actual information, like also level that you just know exactly how to play tight end this year.
0:11So, um, level is a better pick, but I think burden is a pretty similar pick.
0:11That's a good one. Um, I'm going to do Jaden Reed.
0:11This is the next, my next pick was going to be Matthew golden.
0:11So that's a funny idea. Same idea. Jaden Reed is the two receiver set theory, right?
0:11Like we'll, we'll learn information about whether golden had a good year.
0:11Um, maybe whether Christian Watson is actually worth playing what the pass rate was.
0:11Uh, I, when I said, I want to just keep taking running backs reads the one that's been near the top of my list for a while.
0:11I also had burden on my list, but obviously since I already took love when I didn't, I didn't want to put
0:11burden, but read reads, uh, the two receiver set stuff would just be, um, well, obviously we wouldn't learn that, but we would learn in front.
0:11I think there's a possibility. Yeah. Right. By proxy.
0:11If you find out he has like 1100 yards that he's, well, he's either playing a two receiver sets or you don't care, I guess.
0:11Yeah. Yeah. You're in on him. If he has like seven 50, you're like, oh, well, Matthew golden was probably a pretty good pick late.
0:11And similar to that worthy price tag where you're like, some of these receivers going really, really late are, are nice plays have some upside options.
0:11Um, and I'd learn a lot about both read and golden in a key part of the receiver like draft range.
0:11Obviously read goes a little higher. Uh, yeah, I'm going to say right in the same receiver range.
0:11If you hadn't taken read, I would have taken golden, but now I'm just going to not cause that's boring.
0:11Cause it's the same pick, but I will say in the same receiver range.
0:11I'll take Casey Concepcio. Yeah, that's a good one.
0:11So you've already taken two rookie read receivers. I'll take one.
0:11And I also get, uh, I get a bit of a twofer because I do think he gives me information on how
0:11to play tight end this year because, um, I, I do, I'm the only one of the only reasons I'm not like,
0:11I mean, I am way overweight fan, but one of the reasons I'm not even more overweight fan is that I like Casey so much.
0:11And I do wonder like how many Cleveland Browns are going to be massive success stories in 2026.
0:11Um, but a, a, a bullish Casey Concepcion, uh, confirmation.
0:11I mean, he's cheap enough. You can just get them on literally every team and a bearish one would make me even
0:11more interested in fan and for sure. I'm going to take Brees hall.
0:11He's the guy at the two, three turn. I was thinking about similar to your Derek Henry play.
0:11Uh, I think he has some real ceiling. He's got a lot of talent-based ceiling.
0:11I think the jets could actually wind up being a little better.
0:11They've added a lot of skill position talent. I mean, we, we hear this about the jets every single year, but like
0:11Geno Smith's at least a vaguely competent quarterback and they do actually have some depth there.
0:11I would really like to know if Brees hall has a really good year.
0:11Um, I mean, I think Garrett Wilson's a really good pick this year too, but this would be huge for the reasons you said about Henry.
0:11The other one is Jeremiah love in this range to me.
0:11The issue with picking love is all I'm really learning about his love.
0:11If he has a bad year, I don't really know if like the Cardinals were bad, if a different running back took the work, et cetera.
0:11I mean, that could be the case with hall too, where I don't really know a lot, but I think if I
0:11knew hall had a bad year, I'd feel more comfortable playing his backups a little bit and maybe playing, um, maybe playing
0:11Garrett Wilson, maybe playing the pass rate. I feel, I feel the opposite.
0:11Actually, if I knew hall had a, if I knew all had a good year, I would smash all the jets pass catchers.
0:11Yeah, that's, that's a good point. That's actually, because I think, I think that every single jet is underpriced relative to their talent.
0:11I actually thought about picking Geno Smith. I won't now, but I like, I think every jet is underpriced relative to their talent pretty significantly.
0:11And if, if Brees had like a, a legitimately good year, that's telling me they have a functional offense.
0:11And then I probably want to be really invested in the jets pass catcher.
0:11I like that point. Um, and it probably would apply to Jeremiah.
0:11I love to, if he had a really good year, you'd feel better about the Cardinals offense, but I just do think the Cardinal situation figures to be.
0:11Yeah. I mean, they, they project for the fewest points in the league.
0:11The jets are not massively higher, but they like the, the Cardinals have a really hard schedule, the hardest schedule in the league.
0:11And so anyway, I think Jeremiah loves a really good answer to this question.
0:11There's probably people listening to it. Like, how have you not named Jeremiah love yet?
0:11Cause he could be a breakout superstar. I thought about him.
0:11I do think you learn a little bit more with hall.
0:11And I guess I think calls the better pick in that range.
0:11I think he's the better actual fantasy pick. And so he's the one I want to know more about.
0:11Um, all right. We've got a couple of picks left here.
0:11I will do, um, I'll, I'll take you Corey cross.
0:11You merit. Yeah. Um, so, I mean, I, I've been, I've been pretty vocal that I think this Washington backfield is, is undervalued, uh, across the board.
0:11I'd be, I'd be legitimately surprised if there wasn't a winner from this Washington backfield that was impactful.
0:11I, I think that, um, the reason why I'm taking JCM is like, if, um, if I picked white and I get
0:11really positive information on white, that's great. If I get negative information on white, I feel like I still have no idea
0:11who the winner is between JCM and Katron Allen.
0:11Like I would end up taking a lot of both of them, but I feel like that could flip.
0:11I think JCM is the one who cuts most both ways.
0:11I think if you, if you receive, um, really positive information on him, then, then he's the guy.
0:11I think if you don't like, I think then, then, you know, Allen is more interesting, but I think white has to
0:11be the guy because I don't think Callen has any path of being like an every down guy.
0:11So I think JCM, but you can pick it under Washington running back.
0:11I just think there's going to be a winner here.
0:11They're really cheap. Um, and, and I'll, I'll take him.
0:11It's a good one. Um, I'm looking at the rest of my list.
0:11It's CMC and Puka. I already said why I didn't take them is basically just cause it's kind of boring.
0:11Uh, and, and as far as Puka is concerned, you already took Adams and you learn a lot of the similar stuff
0:11from the Adams pick and has some of the same pitfalls where like, if he has a bad year, it might be because of Stafford.
0:11It doesn't necessarily guarantee that it's other guys, but Puka to me is the one that can really run away with the position.
0:11I said this and I mean, he's going for, so it's like, yeah, a third of the first round you get, you get information.
0:11Um, but like he could have such a line, such a good line that you'd be, you'd be into taking him, you
0:11know, one-on-one and then McCaffrey is sort of the same thing, but I'm not going to take those.
0:11The other one is, is Caleb Williams. So I think is a really good quarterback pick, but we've already taken both Loveland
0:11and burden, but I mean, I would love to know if he had a really great year because I do think it's
0:11going to be concentrated, uh, on these guys. It's the same reason we took Loveland and burden.
0:11So I said, um, a bit ago when I took worthy, I had two, two earlier, like tied to two earlier picks.
0:11Worthy was tied to the Mahomes pick. Williams was, was too similar to the Loveland pick.
0:11And then now that you've taken burden, I, I'm definitely not going to do it.
0:11Uh, which is just all just preamble for me to say that I'm going to take another random running back or I'm
0:11actually going to take a late round QB here.
0:11This is kind of a weird one. I'm going to take Bo Nix.
0:11Fun. Bo Nix is a, yeah, I think he's a fun one, right?
0:11You, you've kind of got me a little bit Jaden Waddle curious, Jalen Waddle curious.
0:11I'm not super into him. If Bo Nix has a great year, I want to be in on Waddle.
0:11Um, I want to be in on Pat Bryant.
0:11Uh, and then the other thing is like, I think RJ Harvey was like another way I could have tried to play into this.
0:11I had him on my list. Yeah. Yeah. Harvey Dobbins.
0:11You'd learn some information about them. You'd want to, they're, they're all cheap enough that like, if you knew that Bo Nix
0:11had a really good year, you could get access to Harvey.
0:11You get access to Dobbins. You get access to Jonah Coleman too.
0:11It doesn't give you a ton of information about who it is, but I'm here for the future.
0:11I'll tell you right now. Bo Nix is going to have a good year.
0:11That's why I didn't pick him. I just already know he's going to have a good year.
0:11I know he's a great target. I, I just want to know how good the year is.
0:11I want to, I mean, he throws a ton of passes, all that stuff.
0:11I want to, if he has a, uh, I think, I think the Broncos are an undervalued offense.
0:11I've said this multiple places. I have future bets on their win total over.
0:11Like, I think they're just misunderstood. And I think they've been misunderstood for the better part of the last 12 months.
0:11Yeah, I totally agree. Um, maybe, maybe I'll even get you in on Jalen Waddle, uh, more at some point.
0:11We'll see. Uh, but I totally agree on Nix.
0:11I thought about him. Okay. I have one pick left here.
0:11Um, I'm trying to try to do something fun.
0:11I feel like all the names I have on my list are like, not, not that fun.
0:11Um, so yeah, we kind of already did all the fun ones.
0:11Whatever. I'll, I'll just, I'll just pick the top name on my list.
0:11Um, I get, I get the two, three turn, uh, factor again that I like.
0:11And I do think this is one of the more high variance profiles, um, that we got going early in drafts.
0:11I'll take AJ Brown. Oh, the reason, the reason I didn't have him that high on my list is like, if his
0:11stats are bad, I still don't really want to take that much Romeo tops.
0:11Um, but like, I guess I would, um, you know that, I mean, I'm, I have Drake.
0:11I know that I'm not taking May. Yeah. That's suck.
0:11Yeah. I have Drake may as a fade is the QB three.
0:11I think it, it clarifies the Drake may thing quite a bit.
0:11Um, but I'm going to finish part of my issue though.
0:11It's like, if part of my issue is I feel like I'm only getting news on Brown.
0:11If Brown has a great year or a bad year, that doesn't really impact how I play the running backs.
0:11Um, if Brown has a great year, that's good news for me.
0:11I think he's really overvalued where he's going. So I don't know if I'd actually still take him.
0:11If he has a bad year, I would affirm a fate I'm already going to do.
0:11And I don't really like anybody else on the team.
0:11That's why he was low on my list. But I do think that AJ Brown himself, uh, matters a lot this year
0:11in fantasy and would, would inform how I draft to a large degree.
0:11And I think he has like legitimately has upside of being one of the top five wide receivers in fantasy.
0:11If he gets back to being 2024, AJ Brown with by far the best quarterback he's ever played with.
0:11Um, and there's like a possibility his knee is just cooked and he's a massive landmine.
0:11So I do think he's a pretty high variance player.
0:11Love that. Um, great one, great talent-based bet that we have some uncertainty on and, and, you know, very similar to your neighbor's pick earlier as well.
0:11And yeah. Um, the guy that when you brought this up was, I think the first guy I said to you, uh,
0:11I think if we did this last year, he would have been our one-on-one.
0:11We were both very into him. I think we're both just a little bit snake bitten, but I'm going to close it out.
0:11I just sullied the waters by doing Mendoza is what happened.
0:11That, that may have been, I already dove in on the Raiders to that.
0:11And then, then we already knew what was going on with Brock Bowers.
0:11It was my genius Mendoza pick. So you've been to host a pick.
0:11It was such, such great information. I'm going to take Brock Bowers with the final pick.
0:11Uh, it would, it would be, uh, extremely helpful to the tight end picture to know what Brock Bowers did very similar to the Colston Loveland pick.
0:11Yeah. I opened, uh, my draft with. And so, uh, yeah, obviously Brock Bowers, if he has a massive year is, and
0:11then you get the element of the, like the second round pick thing that you've been saying where depending on where you're
0:11drafting at, you know, whether or not you need to reach on him, you get some value to, to him.
0:11People don't want to take him super high and single tight end, like home leagues.
0:11He's going like later in the second. And so, yeah, I mean, if you're, I totally had a late to ADP because
0:11I, I don't have him right there, but yeah, he does.
0:11He does in fact have a late to ADP.
0:11So you could just take a middle of the second round, early second round, whatever.
0:11I mean, if you're late first, you could take him late first and then just take someone else in the early second to make sure to get him.
0:11But if he has the year that we all know is kind of in there for Brock Bowers, you'd make sure to get him in the earlier rounds.
0:11He would be a really huge piece to have.
0:11Doesn't tell you a lot about other people, but if he has a really bad year, it like the thing about him
0:11for last year, the reason I brought him up when you brought up this idea to me like months ago was if
0:11we would have known Brock Bowers last year, I would have been all in on Trey McBride.
0:11I was writing that and talking about that concept.
0:11I was super in on Bowers, but if Bowers gets hurt, I'll be like, I also really like McBride the way that
0:11I, I had, I do these big tear breaks.
0:11I had a big tear break after McBride before Kittle.
0:11A lot of people had Kittle there and I was like, no, it's these two profiles, but I had a tear separating them.
0:11I had two single player tears. It was weird, but I felt strongly that you should prioritize Bowers when I did my, I also do partial tear breaks.
0:11It's a, it's a whole convoluted process, but when I did my Titan tears article, I had tier one a and tier
0:11one B is the way that I broke it up.
0:11So like similar tier, but, but I thought you should prioritize Bowers, but my whole logic was like, if I knew Bowers
0:11was bad, the only other guy that I thought had that kind of profile was McBride.
0:11The only reason it's slightly different this year is you have Loveland.
0:11I think you still have Warren also that are that high fan into me is a little bit really interesting, but a
0:11little bit further back because of offensive stuff and all that.
0:11But you have two young dudes in Loveland and Warren, maybe fan and even that can run down Bowers and McBride.
0:11I think this year that I don't think was as clear last year behind the two of them.
0:11At any rate, I still think you get a lot of information if you don't, if you find out bad things about
0:11Bowers, about how to play McBride, Loveland, Warren, the top of the tight end position.
0:11It would be really helpful info. Are there other, like, so like one of the other things I had is like a classification.
0:11I never took any of these guys was like the injury rehab tight ends, Tucker craft, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta.
0:11I think that would help that position. I had Sadiq Gadsden and Juwan on another line.
0:11I never took any of them. I had Sadiq Gadsden, T-Ferg on one of my, uh, T-Ferg.
0:11Yeah. Yeah. Are there other guys or like other, so like learning more about tight ends.
0:11All the rookies would be interesting. Like basically, um, pick, pick and choose whichever one.
0:11I think that the similar reasoning for Tootin and Henderson, I could have thrown Buck Yervin as another guy that I think
0:11is, would be interesting to know a lot about.
0:11Um, I think the year two, the year two quarterbacks would be interesting for the state of those offenses.
0:11Shock was a guy that I had on my list.
0:12Um, and I think just the weapons are less exciting for Cam Ward and for Jackson Dart, but you can make similar case for them.
0:12Dart, and especially as a guy that if his stats are really good, that's just your late round quarterback for the year.
0:12Um, so yeah, those, those were guys that were on my list.
0:12Who else was out there for you? No, I think those are, those are great ones.
0:12Great honorable mentions. I would throw out when you were doing some of the running back like Bucky and, and then the backup.
0:12I mean, I would throw out Saquon Barkley, similar to your Derrick Henry play.
0:12And then there's a clean backup and tank Bigsby.
0:12I really like, if I knew that Barkley had a bad year, I think I would, I'll, it's almost like you could take Bigsby.
0:12Like, like I took Lloyd instead of Jacobs. You could almost just say, I'm taking Bigsby.
0:12I want to know if he has 500 yards or more than I know a lot about Barkley too.
0:12But, um, we mentioned the RJ Harvey and like Dobbin stuff.
0:12There's a lot of running back stuff, obviously. I mean, Jalen Warren and Dowdle, if you got information about that would be really helpful.
0:12Deandre Swift, I think would be kind of interesting.
0:12I mean, he's a weird one, but the bears offense is so interesting and you could play that through.
0:12You could say Monongah instead, but all of those, you know, uncertain running back room scataboo and Tyrone Tracy.
0:12I mean, yeah, you can, you can learn a lot of, a lot out of playing any of those in this type of a setting.
0:12And, uh, but yeah, I think there's a, there's a ton of fun ones.
0:12I didn't have a ton of other year, year three receivers.
0:12I had, I didn't pick any of them because a lot of them are in like weirdly unconcentrated offenses where I felt
0:12like I don't actually learn that much about the other guys on their teams.
0:12But I think lad BTJ, uh, Harrison and Rome are like all like very wide range of outcomes players in their own right.
0:12That would be interesting to know enough about. Um, yes.
0:12Harrison, a lot of them are guys I'm not taking.
0:12So Harrison and Harrison and Wilson were two that I was thinking about just cause I, that's a concentrated one.
0:12I was giving you crap about Hunter cause it's a less concentrated offense.
0:12I, I've had a hard time with the Cardinals one because it really has to be Harrison or Wilson.
0:12It feels like along with McBride, obviously, and love and love.
0:12Yeah. So, I mean, you get a lot of a running back and a tight end presence, but it would be interesting
0:12to know a little bit about like Wilson, about Harrison.
0:12Yeah. Um, a booka would be an interesting one.
0:12And then you get some information. Very interesting one.
0:12Yeah. You get some Godwin information. You did burden those kinds of upside plays.
0:12I did Jamison Williams. Those kinds of receivers in that range, Garrett Wilson, Tedderall McMillan would be really good ones.
0:12You basically did flowers by doing Lamar. Um, yeah.
0:12I mean, obviously there's a lot of, there's a lot of good, actually a lot of a bright young, um, for, for McMillan and Coker based reasons.
0:12Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we're, we're sort of just naming a lot of players that we think have upside that we think
0:12have concerns and red flags, but could be upside plays.
0:12And that's sort of the name of the game in fantasy to have good long views, uh, profiles.
0:12We spent a lot of time talking about guys that have good long view profiles, even if they've been hurt and stuff like Marshawn Lloyd and Jonathan Brooks.
0:12And like, look, these guys could be stars still, like it can still happen if they can stay healthy.
0:12If you look at our lists here, our final lists, it's a lot of guys that we really liked as prospects.
0:12It's a lot of long view type players that we think could emerge, could be breakout players, could have real ceilings.
0:12It's like a dynasty draft in some ways, but that's the way you should think about redraft broadly.
0:12That's the point of our long view podcast. I mean, that's, that's the reason why I came up with this exercise is
0:12like one, it's kind of a fun gimmick, but I think it, it, it forces you to think through important elements to
0:12fantasy, which is like, who are these, these uncertainty based profiles that have a lot of upside?
0:12What are these contingent levers where if you pull one thing, three or four different assumptions can be made about what would
0:12happen that really impacts the story of the season?
0:12What are the positional groups that you most want to know about how to play it one particular way?
0:12These are all the types of questions we should be asking anyway, when we're making projections or, uh, when we're, you know,
0:12deciding our, our structural strategy of how we want to orient our teams.
0:12Um, thinking through which teams might have hidden upside that we're not necessarily accounting for.
0:12I mean, all that's the stuff that you, you want to get through.
0:12So I think it thinking through, it's kind of a, a fun way to do it, but it gets you onto a
0:12lot of different concepts I think that are, are integral for, for playing redraft fantasy football effectively.
0:12As we now sit here three hours and 16 minutes.
0:12Do our, do our plugs so we can go home.
0:12Yeah. Uh, I mean, look, we're, we're not, we're not going to be leaping to the top of the search engine charts
0:12with a three hour, 16 minute shows. So if you want to support us, get did we to do this?
0:12We would appreciate, um, patron. We were talking pre-show that, uh, we're going to do draft soon.
0:12So we haven't scheduled exactly when those are going to be, but stay tuned.
0:12That's going to happen shortly. Uh, then we'll do some draft episodes.
0:12Those are going to be for the patron subscribers only.
0:12And otherwise, uh, thanks so much for the feedback, you know, uh, download the show, subscribe to the podcast, um, become a
0:12member review, all that good stuff, like buttons, et cetera.
0:12Yeah. For the, just to follow up your point about the patron thing, uh, for anyone who doesn't know the details and
0:12the things that we've talked about, we are going to do a weekly show sort of hell or high water.
0:12You're going to get it from us. They're often going to be long like this.
0:12It is the long view. Um, those will be free.
0:12You'll continue to get those. You don't have to worry about it.
0:12We're going to do the draft shows in addition, occasionally, especially here in August.
0:12We'll probably do a few. We'll probably, I mean, we may do several.
0:12We don't really know yet, but I mean, we want to draft together some, we want to test out some of these things.
0:12We are going to throw those ones behind the paywall.
0:12Ideally it's not blocking off too much information for those of you that feel like we're paywalling stuff.
0:12Um, most of our conversations again, will be on the free side, but come join us over there if you want to get everything that we talk about.
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0:12So support the show and thanks for hanging out.
0:12Awesome, man. Good show. Yeah.

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