The Long View Podcast

Strange is difficult to draft in redraft formats because he is squeezed by a crowded Jacksonville receiver room and is likely to be used primarily as a between-the-twenties blocker with a small target share.

Ferguson is viewed as a preferred late-round tight end option over Gadsden because he faces fewer obstacles to playing time, despite also projecting to be somewhat rotational; he possesses strong draft capital and a solid college profile.

Njoku is currently ahead of Gadsden on the depth chart, which is a concern for Gadsden's immediate playing time; additionally, Njoku's own role is questioned after he lost receiving production to Harold Fannin last year and signed a cheap, late-offseason deal.

Kolar is expected to serve as the primary Y tight end in early-down 11 personnel sets, though his receiving upside remains speculative given his career high of only 10 receptions; he is considered a viable 18th-round best ball pick due to his strong college profile at Iowa State.

Dalton Schultz is viewed as a more reliable floor option for best-ball rosters compared to Rondale Gadsden, given the current uncertainty surrounding Gadsden's role.

Charlie Kolar is currently the clear tight end one in camp, receiving consistent praise from the coaching staff, which has negatively impacted the outlook for other tight ends on the roster.

Kenyon Sadiq is being moved down rankings due to a camp injury that may lead to a slower ramp-up for routes in the regular season. Despite his elite combine profile, there are concerns about his reliability and target competition from Mason Taylor.

Kene Nwangwu is in a timeshare with Chris Rodriguez. While he was previously ranked aggressively, his stock has been adjusted downward following reports of a 50/50 split in camp.

Chris Rodriguez is splitting work 50/50 in camp and looks healthy, leading to a bump in his rankings. He is currently in a timeshare with Kene Nwangwu, making him a situation to monitor closely.

Tank Bigsby is a rising late-round target who is receiving consistent training camp hype. Despite a disappointing rookie season, he is viewed as a 'preseason legend' and is currently being moved up rankings.

Josh Jacobs is a fade candidate for 2026 due to a history of heavy workloads, lingering groin issues from last year, and potential suspension concerns. The source is taking the under on his 260-touch projection.

Marshawn Lloyd is a priority late-round target with an elite prospect profile featuring high breakaway run and evasion rates. Despite reliability concerns regarding health and college volume, he is a superior pick to Woody Marks and Tyrone Tracy. He is currently flashing in camp and is a strong value in managed leagues.

Lloyd is drawing rave reviews in camp and is considered one of the best late-round running back options available. Given Jacobs' injury history, Lloyd is a high-upside target who should be rising on draft boards.

Jacobs is dealing with a groin injury, which is a re-aggravation of the same issue that hampered him throughout the second half of the 2025 season.

McMillan is dealing with a knee injury. While initial reports lacked a timetable, it was later clarified to be a minor bump that should only keep him out for a few days.

Rodriguez is fully integrated into practice and is being utilized in situational goal-line work, with reports suggesting he could serve as the team's primary goal-line back.

Sadiq suffered a setback in his recovery from off-season hernia surgery and is expected to miss at least a couple of weeks, though he is still expected back for Week 1.

Evans is dealing with a mild hamstring strain, but the source does not expect it to impact his availability for Week 1.

The source believes Samuel is physically limited and likely to be used in a situational, route-limited role, potentially including special teams duties. He is viewed as a player who may provide early-season spike weeks but lacks long-term upside.

The source is bullish on Jayden Daniels, noting that the addition of Stefon Diggs provides a higher floor for the offense and gives Daniels a reliable weapon, making the quarterback's outlook safer.

The source views the addition of Stefon Diggs as a meaningful downgrade for Okonkwo. While previously a target for his potential as a primary receiving tight end, his path to high volume is now blocked by two veteran receivers, and the team's depth at tight end (Bates, Sinatra) may limit his route participation.

McLaurin is viewed as the clear WR1 for the Commanders, expected to take on the 'X-receiver' role and benefit from his established connection with Jayden Daniels. The source considers him a more stable asset than Diggs due to the two-year age gap and his consistent efficiency.

The source projects an 18.5% target share for Diggs, citing his age (33) and the challenge of learning a new playbook. While acknowledging his track record, the source argues that his per-route efficiency will likely decline if he runs a full route load, as his previous high efficiency was tied to limited, specialized usage. The source also notes that his production in the playoffs (16.4% target share) and his age suggest he should not be used as a 90% route-share player.

Ben Gretch notes that Chigoziem Okonkwo is one of the players most negatively impacted by the Commanders signing Stefon Diggs, as Diggs will likely absorb targets previously allocated to the tight end and short-area passing game.

Ben Gretch defends Jayden Daniels' performance, highlighting his 68.4% completion rate as a rookie despite playing with an objectively poor receiving corps and his ability to carry the team to the NFC Conference Championship through high-level deep-ball accuracy.

Antonio Williams has seen his path to a role become cloudy after the Commanders signed Stefon Diggs. Williams had been working with the third team throughout training camp, and the team's decision to add a veteran receiver suggests they were not satisfied with his development.

Ben Gretch adjusted Terry McLaurin's target share down to 23% following the Diggs signing but remains optimistic about his ceiling, noting that McLaurin is coming off his most efficient years and may reach 1,200 yards for the first time in a favorable offensive environment.

Ben Gretch projects Stefon Diggs for an 18.5% target share in Washington, noting that while some market expectations are above 20%, Diggs is entering his age-33 season and his efficiency metrics in the previous postseason against tough defenses were significantly lower than his regular-season output.

Brady's 2022 Buccaneers had a very low average depth of target (ADOT), throwing short passes repeatedly to running backs and receivers like Chris Godwin as a strategic response to defensive coverage adjustments; the Buccaneers were among the most pass-heavy offenses in 20-30 years despite the short-passing approach.

Benjamin exemplifies how rule changes and defensive evolution from 2014 onward reduced the fantasy relevance of big-bodied receivers; despite a strong rookie season with 9 touchdowns in 2014, his career declined as the NFL shifted toward prioritizing athleticism over physicality, eventually forcing him to move to tight end where he faded out.

In 2022, Herbert's Chargers were among the most pass-heavy offenses in the last 20-30 years, with Herbert throwing short passes repeatedly to running back Austin Ekeler as a counter to defensive adjustments; his offense exemplified the extreme passing approach taken by teams facing the new defensive shell coverage.

Godwin was a frequent target in Brady's 2022 short-passing Buccaneers offense, receiving short passes as part of the team's strategy to counter defensive coverage shells; he was part of an offense that ranked among the most pass-heavy in 20-30 years despite the short-yardage approach.

Wilson is available more cheaply in 2026 (fourth round) than he has been since his rookie year, and cheaper than 2025, making him a value play despite the Jets situation. Davis Matic is more optimistic about the Jets with Geno Smith and their weapons than he was last year with Justin Fields. Wilson exemplifies the long view concept: he was a first-round prospect disliked for his Jets landing spot in his rookie year, making him cheaper than warranted. He had a strong rookie season with career-high yards per route run, but production has declined each year since despite strong underlying play and route running. The decline does not make sense given his underlying talent and the games watched. Context: Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles immediately upon joining the Jets in year two of Wilson's career, preventing what was supposed to be an upgrade at QB; in year three he did play but had a tough year, and the team traded for DeVonta Adams midseason.

Loveland is a second-year player that Davis Matic is optimistic about heading into 2026; Matic recently wrote a big piece on the Bears and Loveland explaining his optimism, positioning him as a long view player with breakout potential.

Chase exemplifies the pinnacle of long view players—an elite talent whose underlying ability is so strong that he can overcome defensive game plans keying on him; despite lower ADOT than expected, he gets open consistently and produces at an elite level because defenses cannot stop him.

Bowers faced a historically poor offensive situation with the Raiders in 2025; the team had 5-7 games with 100 or fewer total air yards passing vertically—a rate dramatically higher than the rest of the league combined—due to offensive line issues, poor scheme design, and Geno Smith's inability to get the ball downfield.

Brown is finally entering a top-half pass volume offense for the first time in his career with the Patriots; his ADP has rebounded even after a poor 2025 season, exemplifying the long view concept of betting on elite underlying talent despite situational challenges.

Washington is characterized as a short view player in Jacksonville's pass-catching core; he had a great 2025 season but is more dependent on recent production than on long-term prospect pedigree or draft capital.

Wilson is characterized as a short view player in Arizona's pass-catching core; he had a great 2025 season but is more dependent on recent production than on long-term prospect pedigree or draft capital.

Harrison is positioned as a long view player in Arizona's pass-catching core; despite a tough 2025 season, he had significant draft capital and an interesting prospect profile coming out of college that supports optimism for a breakout year ahead.