The Long View Podcast

Brady's 2022 Buccaneers had a very low average depth of target (ADOT), throwing short passes repeatedly to running backs and receivers like Chris Godwin as a strategic response to defensive coverage adjustments; the Buccaneers were among the most pass-heavy offenses in 20-30 years despite the short-passing approach.

Benjamin exemplifies how rule changes and defensive evolution from 2014 onward reduced the fantasy relevance of big-bodied receivers; despite a strong rookie season with 9 touchdowns in 2014, his career declined as the NFL shifted toward prioritizing athleticism over physicality, eventually forcing him to move to tight end where he faded out.

In 2022, Herbert's Chargers were among the most pass-heavy offenses in the last 20-30 years, with Herbert throwing short passes repeatedly to running back Austin Ekeler as a counter to defensive adjustments; his offense exemplified the extreme passing approach taken by teams facing the new defensive shell coverage.

Godwin was a frequent target in Brady's 2022 short-passing Buccaneers offense, receiving short passes as part of the team's strategy to counter defensive coverage shells; he was part of an offense that ranked among the most pass-heavy in 20-30 years despite the short-yardage approach.

Wilson is available more cheaply in 2026 (fourth round) than he has been since his rookie year, and cheaper than 2025, making him a value play despite the Jets situation. Davis Matic is more optimistic about the Jets with Geno Smith and their weapons than he was last year with Justin Fields. Wilson exemplifies the long view concept: he was a first-round prospect disliked for his Jets landing spot in his rookie year, making him cheaper than warranted. He had a strong rookie season with career-high yards per route run, but production has declined each year since despite strong underlying play and route running. The decline does not make sense given his underlying talent and the games watched. Context: Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles immediately upon joining the Jets in year two of Wilson's career, preventing what was supposed to be an upgrade at QB; in year three he did play but had a tough year, and the team traded for DeVonta Adams midseason.

Loveland is a second-year player that Davis Matic is optimistic about heading into 2026; Matic recently wrote a big piece on the Bears and Loveland explaining his optimism, positioning him as a long view player with breakout potential.

Chase exemplifies the pinnacle of long view players—an elite talent whose underlying ability is so strong that he can overcome defensive game plans keying on him; despite lower ADOT than expected, he gets open consistently and produces at an elite level because defenses cannot stop him.

Bowers faced a historically poor offensive situation with the Raiders in 2025; the team had 5-7 games with 100 or fewer total air yards passing vertically—a rate dramatically higher than the rest of the league combined—due to offensive line issues, poor scheme design, and Geno Smith's inability to get the ball downfield.

Brown is finally entering a top-half pass volume offense for the first time in his career with the Patriots; his ADP has rebounded even after a poor 2025 season, exemplifying the long view concept of betting on elite underlying talent despite situational challenges.

Washington is characterized as a short view player in Jacksonville's pass-catching core; he had a great 2025 season but is more dependent on recent production than on long-term prospect pedigree or draft capital.

Wilson is characterized as a short view player in Arizona's pass-catching core; he had a great 2025 season but is more dependent on recent production than on long-term prospect pedigree or draft capital.

Harrison is positioned as a long view player in Arizona's pass-catching core; despite a tough 2025 season, he had significant draft capital and an interesting prospect profile coming out of college that supports optimism for a breakout year ahead.

Thomas Jr. is framed as a long view player in Jacksonville's pass-catching core; despite a difficult 2025 season, he carried significant draft capital and strong prospect profile credentials that justify optimism for future production.

Talented player in poor situation; Raiders offense was a disaster in 2025 with offensive line issues and inability to get the ball downfield. Team had five to seven games with 100 or fewer total air yards passing vertically—dramatically higher rate than rest of league. Geno Smith couldn't get the ball out, had happy feet, and offense was poorly conceived. Everything that could be bad about a situation was bad for Bowers last year, in addition to his injury.

Long-view player who has clearly ascended; now in improved situation with Patriots after poor 2025 season. ADP has rebounded despite the down year. For the first time in his career, he's in a top-half pass volume offense, which should unlock his elite underlying ability. Host is optimistic on him in new digs despite some debate about age.

Long-view player who had one of the most impressive seasons of his career; demonstrates the value of sticking with elite talent through rocky periods. Taylor's underlying ability—being a workhorse back with elite athletic profile tested at Wisconsin—translates to sustained production even through career downslopes. With Shane Steichen's arrival, he showed how good that talent is when situation improves.

High draft capital receiver with elite prospect profile; framework for evaluating him past short-term production struggles. The concept is to look past tough 2025 season and bet on underlying talent and college pedigree when a player has first-round draft capital and elite prospect metrics.

High draft capital receiver with elite prospect profile; framework for evaluating him past short-term production struggles. The concept is to look past tough 2025 season and bet on underlying talent and college pedigree when a player has first-round draft capital and elite prospect metrics.