The Long View Podcast artwork

Key Young Players Moving in Opposite Directions

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 1, 2026
Published
Thu, October 1, 2026
29
Player insights
20
Players mentioned
Topics
Alvin KamaraTravis EtienneBraelon AllenBreece HallDe'Von AchaneGarrett WilsonKendre MillerCaleb DouglasChris BellChris OlaveCJ DonaldsonDeebo SamuelIsaiah DavisJameson Williams
Player analysis

Player insights

29

Alvin Kamara

NegativeProjection0:01

The source is skeptical of Kamara's fantasy impact due to a multi-year decline in peripherals; while he retains some receiving ability, his rushing efficiency has cratered, and he lacks the explosive play upside needed for meaningful fantasy production.

Insight page
NegativeUsage2:00

The source views Kamara as an inferior player whose role is unlikely to be significantly better than Travis Etienne's was in Week 1. Despite being a starter for this week, the source is avoiding him due to the team's committee approach and inefficient running game.

Insight page
PositiveRole5:00

Alvin Kamara is receiving veteran deference in the New Orleans offense, evidenced by his heavy involvement in the passing game and first-quarter target share.

Insight page

Braelon Allen

PositiveBreakout0:03

Braylon Allen is an absolute weapon and a dynamic mismatch piece for the Jets. His arrow is pointing massively up for his career, and the team must find ways to get him involved. He is a fun start for next week.

Insight page
PositiveValue3:00

Braylon Allen is the clear-cut number one waiver add. He is a mid-range RB2 with a high-end RB2 role, capable of playing in all game situations and dominating short-yardage work. He is a top 15-18 play immediately.

Insight page

Breece Hall

PositiveRole3:00

Breece Hall remains the preferred back over Braylon Allen because he is a much better player, even if Allen's role might technically be slightly better in terms of short-yardage consolidation.

Insight page
NegativeInjury4:00

Breece Hall is expected to miss two to three weeks due to injury, though it does not appear to be an IR situation.

Insight page

Caleb Douglas

NegativeInjury4:00

Caleb Douglas is dealing with an ankle sprain and is expected to miss time, which opens up more opportunities for other receivers like Chris Bell.

Insight page

Chris Bell

PositiveSleeper4:00

Chris Bell is a sneaky pickup with high upside due to his elite catch-and-run ability. He demonstrated his potential with a 40-plus yard play, and his skill set draws comparisons to early-career AJ Brown. He is considered the most exciting receiver option on the team while Caleb Douglas is injured.

Insight page

Chris Olave

PositiveUsage0:01

Olave is a primary target in the Saints' passing attack, specifically highlighted as the key read on high-leverage plays like fourth-and-one and second-and-long situations where he has shown the ability to get open.

Insight page

CJ Donaldson

NegativeUsage0:02

Donaldson has consistently handled the long down-and-distance snaps for the Saints throughout the season, a role the source expects to continue despite the backfield changes.

Insight page

De'Von Achane

NegativeInjury4:00

Devon Achane is out for the year with an injury, which is a significant blow as he was the centerpiece and focal point of the Dolphins' offense. The team's reliance on his unique talent made him startable, but his absence leaves a void that neither Gordon nor Wright is likely to fill with the same efficiency.

Insight page
NegativeInjury4:00

Devon Achane has suffered a torn ACL, which is described as a super disappointing injury.

Insight page

Deebo Samuel

PositiveUsage0:02

Samuel recorded a unique stat line of zero targets and zero receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown, benefiting from a hook-and-ladder play that showcased his ability to turn the corner on misdirection.

Insight page

Garrett Wilson

PositiveRole0:03

Garrett Wilson is an absolute superstar and will remain the alpha of the Jets' offense despite the emergence of other dynamic playmakers.

Insight page
PositiveUsage3:00

Garrett Wilson is incredibly good at the catch point, showing elite ability to snatch high throws and make difficult plays, even when his route running occasionally freestyles in ways that frustrate his quarterback.

Insight page

Isaiah Davis

NegativeUsage3:00

The source believes expectations for Isaiah Davis are too high. Despite being active, he has not played an offensive snap this season, and the source expects a heavy 70-30 split favoring the lead back, rather than a 55-45 committee.

Insight page

Jameson Williams

NegativeProjection2:00

Ben Gretch remains optimistic about Jameson Williams despite a recent dip in targets, noting that his efficiency metrics (post-catch and before-catch) are likely to regress positively. Gretch emphasizes that Williams plays in a hyper-concentrated offense with a poor defense, providing a high-floor contingency if other key skill players suffer injuries.

Insight page

Jaylen Wright

PositiveRole4:00

Jalen Wright is viewed as a more explosive, scheme-fit backup for the Dolphins compared to Ollie Gordon. He played ahead of Gordon during the preseason, and there is potential for him to lead the committee if he can overcome his current injury, though his overall fantasy value remains capped by the offense's limitations.

Insight page

Kendre Miller

PositiveBreakout0:01

The source is intrigued by Miller's upside and believes he will likely look better than Kamara on the field, noting potential for him to take over as the early-down runner if Travis Etienne's injury keeps him out for an extended period.

Insight page
PositiveBreakout2:00

The source likes Kendre Miller as a waiver add. If Travis Etienne misses four-plus weeks, Miller has a decent chance to usurp Alvin Kamara as the primary early-down and goal-line runner in a fun offense, making him potentially startable.

Insight page

Kenyon Sadiq

PositiveBreakout3:00

Kenyon Sadiq is an absolute weapon whose arrow is pointing massively up. Despite potential for inconsistent route rates as other players return, he is clearly a mainstay premier player who creates his own production through elite athleticism.

Insight page

Malik Willis

PositiveProjection4:00

Malik Willis is an interesting add in shallower leagues where he was previously cut. The offense is shifting to be more Willis-centric, which should lead to more vertical passing and scrambling opportunities, potentially increasing his fantasy scoring floor.

Insight page

Marvin Harrison Jr.

NegativeBust3:00

Ben Gretch considers his draft investment in Marvin Harrison Jr. a "completely dead pick" following a poor start to the season, noting that he had ranked the player below ADP even before the season began.

Insight page

Matthew Golden

PositiveRole1:00

Ben Gretch identified Matthew Golden as a primary target since June, projecting him as the Packers' X receiver and a key candidate for intermediate work vacated by Romeo Doubs. Despite early efficiency struggles, Golden is seeing significant volume and opportunity, aided by Josh Jacobs' absence and Jayden Reed's injury.

Insight page

Ollie Gordon

NegativeUsage4:00

Ollie Gordon played over 80% of snaps in the recent game, but the source views this as noise and likely his highest snap share of the year. While he has a short-term edge due to Jalen Wright's injury, his profile as a power back makes him less efficient and less likely to replicate the high-value touches previously held by Devon Achane.

Insight page

Travis Etienne

NegativeInjury0:01

Etienne suffered a hamstring injury while going out of bounds, which will force the Saints to adjust their backfield usage, likely shifting Kamara into the lead role while Miller and CJ Donaldson maintain their respective roles.

Insight page
NegativeProjection2:00

Travis Etienne has been brutal for fantasy this year due to a split backfield and an inefficient running game, leading the source to avoid him.

Insight page
NegativeInjury4:00

Travis Etienne is dealing with an injury that may result in an IR placement, with a potential recovery timeline estimated between two to six weeks.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

3,012
0:00Young Players Going in Different Directions and some injuries at the running back position.
0:00That's what we're going to be talking about today on The Long View Podcast.
0:00I'm Ben Gretch. You can find the Stealing Signals newsletter at bengretch.substack.com.
0:00With me, as always, is Jakob Sanderson. You can find his wonderful Thinking About Thinking newsletter at jacobsanderson.substack.com.
0:00Week three, we have a short show sheet that you've put together, Jakob.
0:00We were just talking, you know, the conversation is so good.
0:00We'll be out of here in no time. Conversations, you know, we'll try to keep them, whatever, but they could be, the
0:00short show sheet's going to be so long. There's several players here that we're going to discuss.
0:00Three weeks of data is just enough that there's a little bit of a sample.
0:00It's not just small sample. It's not just this.
0:00It's not just that. You start to believe you really understand some things.
0:00At the same time, we still know, I mean, I think most of the, the key storylines, one of the big things
0:00that I've felt in the, when I, when I've reviewed stuff in the past that I've found, frankly, is after about like
0:00three or four weeks, a lot of the key storylines of the season have shown their face.
0:00Like, the way that I'm saying this, or thinking about this is over at my other podcast, Dealing Bananas.
0:00We haven't been doing a lot, a lot of shows lately, but we, we do a projecting next year's ADP show in the off season.
0:00And then we typically do an in-season check-in. The in-season check-in tends to be very accurate.
0:00And we often do it after just like four weeks.
0:00So like after four weeks, if you can predict the next season's ADP pretty well, like that's pretty, pretty fascinating.
0:00You kind of know like, which it's been way more accurate than even some of the stuff we've done in August, which,
0:00you know, we've done, we've done well as well, but you learn a lot in the first month.
0:00At the same time, there are still a lot of things that are a mirage.
0:00There's a lot of people writing in the space right now about trends through three weeks last year.
0:00That didn't hold up. And there's, there are plenty of those types of examples too.
0:00It's just enough time for us to have real data, multiple data points, real reason to believe what we're seeing.
0:00And also real reason to build theories on why what we've seen so far may not continue, which creates real nuance to all of the discussions, right?
0:00I mean, I think there's a, so anyway, we'll, we'll see how long the show goes, but I, I'm taking a long
0:00time just to describe where we're at in the season.
0:00I haven't even kicked it to you yet. How are you doing?
0:00I'm excited to talk through some of the stuff with, you know, that we have three weeks.
0:00There's some players that when, when we were talking about the show sheet, I sent you some names that I was excited to get your thoughts on.
0:00I've seen some of your comments on maybe they differ a little bit from, from how I'm thinking about it.
0:00I'm really curious. You had some great notes on Hampton and Keaton Mitchell last week or week one, one after one of the weeks.
0:00And that's really played out. And I want to check in on that and check in on some other things as well.
0:00You know, some, some of those great takes. I want to hear some of your other expanded thoughts on some of these other situations.
0:00We'll definitely get to those. We'll have a lot to discuss, but yeah.
0:00How are you doing? How's, how have the first three weeks gone for you?
0:00Yeah. I mean, it's like, it's, they've gone well.
0:00Um, it's been really fun getting back into the grind.
0:00It was, um, I don't know if you find this actually, I know you decently well.
0:00So I'm going to guess that you do find this in fact, um, which is that like when I'm, when I'm watching
0:00the games, it's very easy to like fixate on the takes that look bad and like really obsess on them.
0:00Um, and then I, you know, got to writing, um, hitchhiker sky this week and I wrote dynasty corner this week.
0:00And then it's like, as I get through, I'm like getting back and I'm kind of reminding myself.
0:00I'm like, Oh, like, there's actually a lot of takes that are, that are looking good.
0:00Um, some things are going, you know, how I wanted them to go or how I want to expect them to go
0:00where it's like, it's easy to fall into the trap of being like, you know, this, this one or these couple of
0:00players that things feel substantially worse on like, um, and really wind up kicking yourself over that.
0:00So trying to, trying to keep in a positive frame of mind, like as much as possible.
0:00Um, I wrote about that after, uh, after either week one or week two or something.
0:00And I think the reason that we, we are that way, I, I, you know, apart from us being a certain type of personality.
0:00And I think we're both sort of similar in this regard that we're going to be a little bit harder on ourselves
0:00about things that we don't do right. As opposed to, you know, victory lapping things that we do get, which is, you
0:00know, there's other analysts in the space that will just tell you all the things they get right and never talk about the things that they get wrong.
0:00And, you know, to each their own, I'm not going to, whatever it is, what it is.
0:00I do think there's an element of like, you should tell people what you got right.
0:00And I, I respect the people that do that well from a perspective of it's not anyone else's job to keep track
0:00of all of the takes that you had and all of the perspective.
0:00Like, I don't expect any of my individual readers to know every single thing I said, but I, I, you know, anyway,
0:00one of the ways that like, if you're constantly like, oh, I got this wrong, got this wrong.
0:00I got this wrong. At some point people are going to be like, well, why, why do I listen to you?
0:00Like, you know what I mean? Like, but like the reality is, yeah, there's a lot going right.
0:00But the way that I think about that, in addition to us being inclined that way is just the things that we
0:00got right are things that we have visualized and talked about.
0:00This is how this is going to go. This guy's going to get this type of work.
0:00This thing's going to happen. And then when it happens, you're like, yeah, I already wrote all about this in the off season.
0:00I already thought this was going to happen. It's not surprising to me, but you forget that like, it's surprising to a
0:00lot of other people that weren't as on it as you were.
0:00Like Matthew Golden's one of my best calls this year.
0:00And I've been saying it since I did the, they're the first team I projected the Packers in early June.
0:00And I wrote up, you know, off season stealing signals with the different projections I did.
0:00I think I wrote that one on June 6th.
0:00It was like the first days of June when I was starting my projections process.
0:00I know a lot of people do it a lot earlier, but that's where, you know, that's where my timeline was.
0:00And I wrote about Matthew Golden as being the X receiver and being a real candidate for the intermediate work that was vacated by Romeo Dobbs.
0:00And I had written about him somewhat decently in field tippers earlier in the off season that like, yes, the way that
0:00I wrote it was his yards per hour run from year one was not.
0:00What was the word that I used? Not. I feel like you liked the word on one of the podcasts.
0:00Yeah, I'm trying to. I'm trying to think of it.
0:00I mean, basically what I, I think what you're, I'm going to explain it using 17 words because I can't think of
0:00the one, but like, I don't know, maybe not prohibitive, but like basically it was, it was not so bad that you can't be good.
0:00That's what I'm trying to say, but I'm sure there's a better way of saying it.
0:00That's exactly what it was. I'm going to look it up because I'm so annoyed, but yeah, anyway, I, I, there's a lot of words here.
0:00So it's somewhere in here. Yeah. But yeah, it was, it was exactly that.
0:00Not, not prohibitive from him being good into the future.
0:00Um, but yeah, anyway, I'm still trying to figure it out, obviously.
0:00And I'm, I know there's, there's a good word.
0:00I, I feel like I, yeah, I feel like I even used a similar word anyways.
0:00Yeah. You get the sentiment. Yeah. Um, and I think it was one of these guys that great.
0:00Yeah. Yeah. He was one of these guys that I, yeah, sorry, just to finish the point.
0:00Cause I'm getting myself distracted, but he was one of these guys that I visualized whatever, or I talked about, or I
0:00wrote about, this is the way the offense is going to look.
0:00They've cleared the decks for him. They've done all the stuff, even though you had a bad rookie or he didn't play a lot.
0:00He's clearly going to play more. He may not be perfectly efficient, which he hasn't.
0:00Um, but there's going to be a lot of volume.
0:00There's going to be a lot of opportunity for him there.
0:00All of these types of things. You know, one of the things that, that, that layers in there, there's always context as
0:00Josh Jacobs being out for all of this has probably impacted their pass rate.
0:00And some of those things, which has really been a positive.
0:00And then you get Jane Reed getting hurt. And some of these things were like, yeah, Matthew golden's getting a ton of volume.
0:00The, the, the role is there. The clarity, um, you know, was, was there already.
0:00And then it's like, yeah, I mean, I ended up writing about him last week.
0:00That's why he comes to mind. Cause I did let myself like realize like, yeah, not everybody was this on golden being in this role.
0:00And so, yeah, it's worth, it's worth saying like, yeah, I got this right, whatever.
0:01But it's, it's the, the broad point is it doesn't click immediately.
0:01Like this is a point that not everybody was on because you were on it, whether, whether you're on Matthew golden or somebody else or whatever.
0:01Um, and then the stuff that you're not on or you, or, or, or, or sometimes argue, argued against, and then it
0:01plays out the way that other people saw it.
0:01You're like, man, I feel like an idiot. And like, it's not what I expected.
0:01I didn't see that. I thought about how other people saw that, but I didn't see that.
0:01And now it's happening and man, I look so stupid.
0:01And so you, you, you, you naturally are going to dwell on the thing that is happening.
0:01That doesn't fit what your, you know, analysis perception, et cetera was.
0:01Um, anyway, I thought you said that very well.
0:01It's the way I am two through three, three weeks.
0:01And it doesn't even mean that the three weeks are going to be predicted.
0:01Like Jameson Williams is one. I, the week one role was there.
0:01The drops and everything. And then he only has four targets the next two weeks.
0:01And now I am getting a little bit concerned.
0:01And this is pretty much what people were, who are out on Jameson Williams would have said is like the volume will be inconsistent.
0:01And he also like, we'll have some drops issues or whatever.
0:01Like sometimes his efficiency will be inconsistent. And I mean, the efficiency over the course of both of the last two seasons has stuck pretty strong.
0:01I mean, because he has both some good, really good ball in hand and before the catch point area yards type efficiency.
0:01So I would probably have argued that point. And it's still a small sample there.
0:01I still think that might flip. I still am optimistic about Jameson Williams at the same time.
0:01Like what's happened through three weeks is exactly what people who didn't want to draft Jameson Williams would have said was the issue.
0:01Right. As a person who was like quite open to Jameson Williams, but like probably I'm a little bit less emotionally invested in Jameson Williams.
0:01I would say like I'm not that worried largely because I don't think that at his cost, you know, like I didn't
0:01have him rank quite as highly as you did, but I was still pretty solidly above ADP.
0:01And I don't think that his cost necessitated like the absolute apex leap.
0:01Right. Like I, that I don't think is really happening.
0:01Right. Like there was a, there was a scenario where it was just, they were going to come out immediately and it
0:01was going to be very clearly like JMO is like, if not the one B to Amonra, but is like already seeing
0:01the role he saw at the end of last season.
0:01Laporte is a very distant third behind him and like, we're just off to the races and it's going to be a 1500 yard season.
0:01Like that's, that doesn't seem like kind of the path, but I do think people are probably being a little bit too negative in that one.
0:01I mean, I think that we're just going to see spike weeks from him.
0:01We always do every single season and they, they are, they haven't quite come up yet.
0:01I think week one should have been one of them and it's just frustrating that we didn't get the one in week
0:01one that we probably should have got because he didn't finish a lot of plays.
0:01But I think it's going to happen. He's like under one yard after catch per reception so far this season.
0:01That's not going to hold. Like he's always been a really strong post target efficiency guy.
0:01And I suspect we're going to see that. And then the other big base case and why I think he had a much higher floor.
0:01It's like the big out for him remains. It's a really good offense with a really terrible defense and only four major skill players.
0:01So, I mean, I think you still have the out of if any of Gibbs or Amin Ra or Laporte suffer an
0:01injury at any point, he becomes an absolute turbo smash.
0:01And then, you know, people can say like, oh, well, it only happened because one of those guys got hurt.
0:01I still think he's going to have his weeks with all of them healthy, first of all.
0:01But I also think like you have to think through contingencies when you.
0:01That was the whole point. This is a hyper concentrated.
0:01Yeah. Look at Devante Adams, who I missed on how hyper concentrated that offense is.
0:01I mean, that's that was a huge part of the point was this is hyper concentrated and people are like he can't get the volume.
0:01And the thing I kept saying was you better be confident that he that he has the really low like targets per
0:01route because he's going to run enough routes. And he has been running the routes.
0:01I mean, it's anyway, I'm not worried about him either.
0:01He's running a ton of routes. He's he's going to be out there in a very concentrated offense.
0:01You're talking through it very well. The word on golden was disqualifying.
0:01The year one was disqualified. There we go. That's a great way of putting it.
0:01I mean, to pick up on the golden point.
0:01So I had tweeted about this, I think, after week two.
0:01And it's changed maybe a little bit after week three.
0:01But like if you start looking at the wide receivers, like what I would what I would typically refer to.
0:01It was like the third portion of the wide receiver window.
0:01Or I think I forget exactly where you drop your quarters.
0:01But maybe like maybe it's the third quarter wide receivers, the second quarter wide receivers.
0:01I forget. What are you? Range are you talking around six through ten type guys?
0:01Yeah, that's like receiver back end of quarter to front end of quarter three.
0:01I've always talked about that as being like sort of the borderline.
0:01And that's part of why I call that the cutoff between like quarter two and quarter three is like usually in quarter
0:01three, you start to like be outside the wide receiver window.
0:01Sometimes those guys linger into quarter three, but you're kind of out of that range.
0:01And now you're in zero RB territory. You're in maybe the QB window and maybe tight end window.
0:01Like, you know, like you're right. You can do a lot in quarter three, but all those windows shut in quarter three as well.
0:01And wide receiver may have shut earlier. And then quarter four, you're just in flyers.
0:01You know, like that's kind of the way that I've always thought of that.
0:01Yeah, like that group of wide receivers and honestly, that group of running backs, too.
0:01But that group of wide receivers has mostly been atrocious this year.
0:01Like basically after you get past that group of like like J-Mo, Adams, Evans, whatever.
0:01And like once you get into like Rome and onward, it's been pretty much a death zone.
0:01Like the only guys that I would say you feel markedly better about today than when you drafted them would be Matthew
0:01Golden, Michael Wilson, Josh Downs, maybe Stefan Diggs. And that's like probably it.
0:01And like a lot of those guys are like, not only do you feel worse, but like, like are like cuttable.
0:01Like it's like, like, I mean, some of them, it's been a rough start, like rough start for Rome, rough start for Tate.
0:01Like Marv is like super dead. Brian Thomas, we're going to talk about later.
0:01Obviously a horrible start for him. Some of you guys got hurt.
0:01Little life from Jordan Addison in week three, I felt like.
0:01Yeah, little life from Jordan Addison for sure. But yeah, you're right.
0:01Tough first two weeks for him. Little life for Cardinal Tate.
0:01Little life for Cardinal Tate. Yeah. Little life for Cardinal Tate.
0:01But like, I still think tough start for him.
0:01And like, I think really just a tough start for the Titans.
0:01Like some of these guys just got hurt. And so it's not really their fault, but like dribbling, obviously it's not going
0:01to happen probably this year the way that you wanted Jaden Reed.
0:01Like not their fault, but they're hurt. And then like nothing from Sutton.
0:01Chris Godwin? Nothing from Pittman. Nothing from Godwin. Nothing from QJ.
0:01Nothing from like. Like I'm missing guys. But like a lot of these guys, it's like feels like the book is fully closed.
0:01And some of them, it's like not the start you'd want.
0:01And maybe there's still some hope, but you probably would draft them not as high today as you did three weeks ago.
0:01And it's like three to four guys, I think, that you're legitimately like, man, this is a good pick.
0:01I feel really happy that this is the guy I landed on.
0:01And it's like I kind of bringing this up because I was like really beating myself up over the Marv pick on a couple teams.
0:01Which is a completely dead pick. And we had said that kind of after week one.
0:01But like, you know what? Like there's basically like only a few guys that are good in this range.
0:01And two of them are golden and downs or the two that I like the most.
0:01So I'm like, I actually don't feel that bad about like how I played this range overall, you know?
0:01But it's like kind of the way you said it.
0:01It's like I don't spend that much time thinking about the QJ pick.
0:01Because I'm like, I never picked him this year.
0:01It's going kind of how I thought it would go for him.
0:01And so I'm not like thinking about, oh, like good call by me.
0:01I'm like, well, yeah, of course that was never going to hit.
0:01So it's like you spend, whereas if QJ was hitting every single week, I would be like obsessing over it.
0:01Because it would be, you know, against my expectations.
0:01So anyways. I had a similar, I mean, I talk about this type of stuff in the newsletter all the time.
0:01It's a fun time to think about this stuff.
0:01But I had a subscriber say, you know, you're kind of being too hard on yourself, whatever.
0:01And it's not why I say that. I'm, you know, I'm actively thinking about it.
0:01But he's like, your fades are like 80% right.
0:01And it's funny. I've always said, like, I feel like I do better with fades than.
0:01Everyone does better with fades. Most players don't hit.
0:01That's a good point. But like I do some big, big fades that are like way, way down my ranks.
0:01And Quentin Johnson was one. Cortland Sutton. Jacoby Myers just had a good week last week.
0:01Alec Pierce actually looked decent until he got hurt.
0:01Those are like the ones that were going in that range you were talking about that I had pushed way down as like clear fades.
0:01And they're like none of them are hitting. But you're right.
0:01Most of the guys in that range aren't hitting.
0:01But like I had also had Harrison and Brian Thomas ranked quite a bit below ADP.
0:01And there's several other guys. I mean, some of the early running backs.
0:01I had Barkley as a fade. I had A-chan as a fade.
0:01I mean, it was cool to get that feedback from a subscriber that was like, you know, you're probably being a little
0:01bit hard on yourself because you've been hitting on a lot of Drake May I had as a pretty clear fade early and as an early QB.
0:01And that's not gone well. But anyway, we should do the short view.
0:01We should start the show. Good call. Let's start the show 17 minutes in.
0:01All right. All right. So I would say the big like this was probably the most eventful waiver wire week of the
0:01year so far, especially on like FFPC stuff, which we co-managed some teams on and play.
0:01I know that you'll be hearing this post waivers, but I still think it's relevant to like start sit decisions to maybe some shallow leagues.
0:01Some of these guys are still sitting out there.
0:01They are actually in some of mine. We had injuries running back.
0:01Finally, after running backs were basically protected by force field.
0:01Not obviously not that I'm happy to see any of them, but we got Devon Achan was a super, super disappointing injury with the torn ACL.
0:01And then we got Brees Hall is going to miss.
0:01Sounds like he's going to miss like week to week.
0:01I would say like two to three weeks. It sounds like doesn't sound like IR's consideration there.
0:01And then Travis Etienne, it sounded like IR was part of the conversation.
0:01We'll see if he gets placed on that before Sunday.
0:01I'll say like two to four to six weeks maybe on him.
0:01So curious from your perspective, like assume that you can have your choice of any of these guys.
0:01Different timelines for each, of course, kind of of utility.
0:01Like how excited are you from a rest of season perspective or for this week if you want to touch on that?
0:01The Miami duo of Ollie Gordon, Jalen Wright, even throw in Jarquez Hunter.
0:01The New Orleans guys, Camara, Kendray Miller, and then Braylon Allen.
0:01How do you see these backfields? How do you see these backfields playing out after some pretty significant injuries to the lead backs there?
0:01Yeah, I mean it's a big conversation in terms of all the different backfields.
0:01Maybe we can take them sort of one at a time.
0:01I would say that. For sure. Or just like the easier things, the broad things for me, Camara looks like he's going to get the veteran deference.
0:01He was getting that first game he played. He was getting a bunch of passes.
0:01Etienne catches seven balls in week one. And then suddenly Camara is getting all these first quarter catches.
0:01But he had like 22 yards in that game.
0:01And then last week he had, you know, not necessarily.
0:01Like he looked better in week three than he did in week two.
0:0122 yards on like 15 touches or something in week two.
0:01Like it was not good. And then he had, he ran for 36 yards on nine carries last week.
0:01He had 15 on nine carries the week prior.
0:01He only had the one catch last week. Like they use a little bit of Kendra Miller.
0:01And you mentioned, you know, I, I'm, I'm always naturally more intrigued by the young player.
0:01The player was a little bit upside, all these things.
0:01Miller's had a hard time staying healthy. I do think Camara is going to get that deference.
0:01And then I think it's fairly straightforward that Miller's going to probably look better.
0:01At this point, Camara has been like a three year decline in the peripherals, like a multi-year decline.
0:01He kept, he lost all the rushing peripherals, but kept some of the receiving peripherals through to like last year.
0:01But then the, like the yards per run absolutely cratered.
0:01It had always still been, you know, pretty solid that he could make plays in the past game.
0:01That absolutely cratered. He has six catches for 12 yards on a seven target so far.
0:01Like he can still catch the ball. He can get on the flat.
0:01He looks like the same guy, but there's just not a lot of juice there.
0:01He's not going to turn it up field and get, I mean, even probably a ton of like eight to 10 yard gains.
0:01He may have some of those. He may be able to put together a 60, 80 yard game or something, but I'm,
0:01I'm pretty skeptical that he's going to be able to maintain enough efficiency to have like real fantasy impactful yardage.
0:01It could just be that he's limiting what the backfield is able to do in, in, in some.
0:01But I'm pretty skeptical. He's going to be able to do enough to matter in a meaningful way for fantasy.
0:01And if he's real bad, which is, it seems like is part of the potential range of outcomes here.
0:01Cause so again, he'll have some eight, 10 yard gains.
0:01He may get into some space and have some 15 yard gains.
0:01And then you start to amass some stuff, but you need like to get the real efficiency.
0:01You need to be able to have explosive play upside too, where you can get 20, 25, 30 yards.
0:01And even like plays can break in positive ways.
0:01And I think Kellen Moore is a fantastic coach.
0:01The reason this is such an interesting conversation is the saints are like a top five best fantasy offense.
0:01We know we're going to get play volume. They play hard.
0:01They play fast. They're going to throw the ball.
0:01I wrote about them a ton in my introduction this week for stealing signals that saints Raiders game was in my opinion,
0:01maybe not the most fun, but like one of the most, like most fun games of the week.
0:01It was less fun if you were sitting in first place at DFS contest with no late game players and you were just rooting for nothing to happen.
0:01It was a lot less fun. If that was the situation you were in.
0:01That sounds brutal. The game was like, if you know, you're a Bowers fan, if you're, I mean, I'm not even that
0:01into the saints, but we got a lot of the modern trends.
0:01We got, there was a stat. They showed that at one point they were one away from the record for tight end touchdowns in a game.
0:01They had five and it was for four different players.
0:01And then they did get the sixth or it was three different players.
0:01And then Bowers was the one who didn't have one.
0:01He ends up scoring the six. So they tied the record for tight end touchdowns, both teams, they're, they're passing tight end
0:01scored and they're like block and release tight end scored.
0:01So you had mayor and Bowers and you had both Fanton and Juwan Johnson.
0:01They both caught two. Uh, and, and, you know, that's like the way that we know that the NFL is sort of
0:01trending and they were doing one of the things I loved about what the saints were doing was they were intentionally going
0:01to shotgun with tempo early in the third quarter, not like a two minute drill, but they were running it like a two minute drill.
0:01And they scored a touchdown and then the Raiders fumbled the ensuing kickoff.
0:01And then they just had all this success in like a shotgun tempo situation.
0:01They come out under center and run the ball under center and go for like a 16 yard run on first down.
0:01And it's just like, just this tendency breaker, like the Raiders D's over on the sideline figuring out how do we stop what they were just doing?
0:01They did it so well. And you come out and you're like, we're going to run a completely different offense.
0:01We're going to, we're going to be in the multi tight end stuff.
0:01Now that was the play where ETN, you know, grabbed that as hamstring as he was going out of bounds and he
0:01was hurt and he went off the field, but it was a, you know, a nice run.
0:01Very next play. They go under center again. They have a fullback in there.
0:01They do a play action and then Fant blocks and releases into the flat.
0:01He's wide open. Shuck throws it to him. He catches it.
0:01He runs up the sideline for a touchdown. They had, you know, great starting field position to play drive where their entire
0:01offense looked different than the drive before it. And it was like, you have a completely different.
0:01And I know it's not like something new for teams to go under center for a series of plays or to go
0:01in the shotgun for a series of plays. But like you watch every game every week, like teams tend to do certain types of things.
0:01There's things they see in matchups. They're trying to exploit matchups when they find it.
0:01A lot of times they're just pressing that button over and over and over again.
0:01This is a team, Kellen Moore, that's like, it's not about just spamming play action or spamming motion or spamming what people
0:01say are these easy buttons and these cheat codes.
0:01It's about understanding that all of that stuff is misdirection.
0:01It's breaking your own tendencies. It's getting defenses to see one thing and do something different, which is what defenses do right now so well as well.
0:01They're showing one thing pre-snap. They're rotating post-snap. When the quarterbacks are under center and they're doing the play action, everyone's like,
0:01oh, the quarterback turns his back to the field and he gets a different view when he hits the top of his
0:01drop than he saw pre-snap because there's so much rotation.
0:01The defense is doing that. They want to show you one thing, do something different.
0:02And it's what offenses do. This is not new.
0:02This is what football is. But it's how you play football successfully or how you scheme it or how offenses work at
0:02the base level is a little bit of trickery.
0:02Get a little bit of an edge and then you turn a corner.
0:02I mean, look at that 80-yard touchdown the Niners had where they ran that hook and ladder on a third and long
0:02that we've seen multiple teams do variations of this.
0:02The Seahawks did it, I think, under Ryan Grubb where they threw like a short pass to JSN.
0:02He chucks it across the field, but it was a lateral, to Zach Charbonny on the other sideline who catches it and runs up the other sideline.
0:02It's a full field lateral to convert like a third and 15 or longer.
0:02And we've seen that play a couple times where it's like a long lateral.
0:02This one was a traditional hook and ladder. Mike Evans running a curl route and he held it as long as he could.
0:02He's getting contacted and then he flips it to Debo as Debo's running underneath.
0:02But the whole thing is misdirection. This was a downfield misdirection.
0:02The defense is breaking on Evans. Debo's able to turn the corner.
0:02He's able to beat Buda Baker, I think, was a safety on the corner and go all the way for an 80-yard touchdown.
0:02He ends up with the funniest stat line of the week.
0:02Zero targets, zero receptions, 80 receiving yards and a receiving TD.
0:02He set the all-time record for most receiving yards without a catch.
0:02There you go. Not surprisingly that that was the all-time record, but that's always my favorite when you have no catches but
0:02receiving yards because you got it on a lateral.
0:02But it's the whole point of misdirection. What is the defense thinking?
0:02And even within the play, even after a reception, you get that same element of we're trying to show you one thing and do something different.
0:02That's what all of these easy button markers are for offenses.
0:02That's what – and I hear people – I'm off on a huge tangent.
0:02We're on the short view and I'm making it a long view thing.
0:02But there's so much about football that is about this.
0:02And then I see people simplify it all the time on social and stuff.
0:02They're like, this team just needs to run more play action.
0:02They need to do more of this and this and this and this.
0:02And it's like there's a reason why – for example, I loved Mike Leach as an offense.
0:02But Mike Leach was pressing the bounds of passing.
0:02And it was like throwing 80% of the time.
0:02And there's a reason why good defenses were able to stop Mike Leach offenses.
0:02He was coaching up here at WSU. We were at – I'm a UW guy.
0:02And for a period in there when UW was doing well and had some really strong defenses and Mike Leach's pass games
0:02were good, UW was particularly good against those pass games.
0:02Had some really good secondaries. UW was kind of secondary you for a period there, right?
0:02Sent a lot of these guys to the pros.
0:02Marcus Peters, Trent McDuffie, a bunch of dudes. Buda Baker.
0:02And if you had good secondary players and you were putting nickel and dime out there, you could stop this because you
0:02knew you were throwing every single time. And you knew what they were trying to do.
0:02And if you could man up and guard all these different weapons, like you were – anyway, the point is the misdirection.
0:02You can't just – just because that was in an era when everyone was saying you need to pass more.
0:02Now it's a little bit tricky because defenses are also focused on stopping explosive pass plays.
0:02But at that time, most offenses – and I was strongly of the mind – you needed to be passing more.
0:02They were too run heavy. A lot of the old coaches were doing things suboptimally.
0:02But there was a limit. The point I'm making about the Leach thing is even in that era, he passed so much
0:02that he was predictable enough that teams could scheme in ways that then gave them that little edge.
0:02It's always about like – the point about the Debo play I was going to make is Debo is not like super explosive anymore.
0:02But there was enough of a little bit of an edge there.
0:02Even with Evans holding that lateral, as long as he did, I thought was really a key part of the play.
0:02It helped Debo get not just the corner for the first down but all the way.
0:02You have everyone else crashing on Evans like we got to get this guy to the ground.
0:02One more step, two more steps toward Evans before the lateral comes out.
0:02Then Debo ends up having that one more step to get around the edge and score the long touchdown.
0:02It's often about that last step. Did you overcommit to like a run fit or a hole or whatever and then a
0:02player breaks in and is out the gate on the other side of the play?
0:02Like so many of the football plays come down to that like point about leverage like within a route or within a
0:02block or are you shaded to this side or that side?
0:02Like if – and then these plays and the misdirection and all of the concepts are about getting that leverage back on
0:02your side where you have this like space element going in your favor now.
0:02And you can turn the corner and you can – and I mean I just loved seeing that from Kellen Moore in
0:02this game where it's like, yeah, they're doing certain things successfully.
0:02And he knows that that's what the defense is seeing on the other sideline and they're going to adjust to it.
0:02And now he's going to do something completely different as a tendency breaker to leverage what you're going to try to –
0:02and then you're like, man, we're not even ready for you to come out under center and run the ball.
0:02And now you're running the ball effectively under center.
0:02Well, crap. Now we've got to adjust to that because you're on shotgun.
0:02Now you're going to do – now you're play actioning off of that out of under center, you know, a few plays
0:02after you were just beating us out of shotgun, more spread offense.
0:02It's throwing a lot of things at the defense, which good defense requires 11 people being on the same page.
0:02You've got to coach these guys to all do the same stuff.
0:02They've got to be able to communicate within plays.
0:02How do they all get on the same page when you're throwing so many different – they have to all read and
0:02react to different things that they're seeing. And it takes back that degree of like who is dictating.
0:02And that's what we're seeing with the good offenses right now is they're taking back who's dictating.
0:02The defense has been able to dictate with these pre- and post-nap rotations over the last like five years.
0:02And we're seeing offenses that are being intentionally like tendency breaking and shifting.
0:02And like I talked about this in the offseason that there would be an increase in – the point about the –
0:02we talked about it on the show. The point of the multi-tight end stuff was not that that was going to be
0:02the answer and everyone was just going to run multi-tight end formations every time.
0:02It was that more like sub packages and more looks and creating more scheme answers was going to be the counterpunch and
0:02was going to be the answer because you're throwing all this at all these teams.
0:02Anyway, Kellen Moore is doing it as good as anyone in the entire league.
0:02I think he creates like a lot of great opportunities for Shuck.
0:02I thought through three-quarters Shuck was playing great. I've been really hard on Tyler Shuck, but he's playing great.
0:02But it's also clear that like Moore understands how to create opportunities for him where he can on a first read make a good throw, et cetera.
0:02When they got into the fourth quarter, they stopped to have some of those answers and Shuck started to frankly not play as well.
0:02There was a key fourth down that I wrote about in the newsletter and added some visuals and stuff, but he wanted to go underneath to Olave.
0:02It was a fourth and one. It was on the left side.
0:02The Raiders dropped some defensive linemen, dropped somebody underneath the Olave route.
0:02Shuck couldn't go there. And I thought he made a pretty – it was a pretty bad read because there was only
0:02– they kept two guys in protection. There was only three routes.
0:02There was Bryce Lance above the Olave route running like a flag back to the corner.
0:02And then there was like a vertical on the other side of the field that wasn't even really in the play.
0:02And Shuck didn't have Olave and he worked all the way back to the right play.
0:02And then he basically tried to run. The pocket was kind of collapsing.
0:02But Lance was open down the field. He had a one-on-one on the flag route and was open.
0:02And I showed some visuals where – in my article that support this.
0:02But he – Shuck had time. If he had done the low-high read that he was supposed to do, he could have
0:02got that ball out there for Bryce Lance. And it was a fourth and one.
0:02The ball had to go there. Like they had – the Raiders had brought down players toward the box.
0:02He didn't have room to run because they dropped some linemen.
0:02But they also had some spies. He ends up taking a sack.
0:02He tries to kind of step up and maybe I can scramble for the one yard on fourth and one.
0:02But that was not the answer with the way the Raiders played it.
0:02The answer was they gave him a one-on-one down the field on the flag route.
0:02And Lance won. And the ball had to go vertical.
0:02And he didn't want to or he didn't get from that low to high read on the left side of the field.
0:02He tried to work all the way back to the right side of the field.
0:02And there was nothing there. That was completely locked down.
0:02Part of the reason I bring that up is the next drive they're trying to put together a last gasp drive.
0:02They're down eight. They get into a second and long.
0:02And what does Kellen Moore dial up? He dials up the exact same low to high read on the left side of
0:02the field where Velae was in the flat. And this time Alave was in the high route.
0:02And he gets like a 20-yard gain. And Alave's wide open.
0:02And shoulder shakes underneath the Velae and then goes to Alave.
0:02But I so quickly and had such quick improvement that I'm, you know, you don't know it.
0:02But I'm very confident that Moore talked to him on the sideline between drives and said, this is what the read is.
0:02This is, you know. And also we're going to go back to that.
0:02Because I know that the Raiders are going to be looking at pictures from last drive and say, we missed this exact play.
0:02And as soon as he got into a second and long and needed to get that drive jump started.
0:02Now they ended up fumbling right after that. Jawan Johnson fumbled.
0:02They ended up losing. But even that was such a cool thing to go from the thing that failed.
0:02Your quarterback misread on the fourth down the drive before to go right back to that the next drive for a crucial second long first down.
0:02And Alave's wide. I mean, they're dropping some safeties because we're in the, you know, prevent at this point.
0:02It's an eight-point game. There's not a lot. It's a desperation final drive.
0:02There's only a minute left. No timeouts. But, like, there was a guy kind of shading in towards Vele on the flat.
0:02And Shuck pumped in. And he stays, you know, held down and gives plenty of space for the throw to Alave over the top of that.
0:02And anyway, I think Kellen Moore's awesome. So I think this running back room is really appealing.
0:02I'm not that super into Kamara. But yet, like, he could still score.
0:02Like, it's a really relevant conversation because he very well could still score.
0:02And Kendrick Miller very well could, too. Like, there should be an answer here.
0:02I mean, I think the offense is super appealing.
0:02I don't know if their running game is that appealing, though.
0:02Like, their offense has been really fun through three weeks.
0:02Part of the reason it's been so fun is that they can't run the ball at all.
0:02And so they're kind of forced to just pass constantly.
0:02And they play really aggressively. And they pass very well.
0:02And so it kind of all works out. I mean, part of it has been even at the goal line.
0:02They've run the ball very little at the goal line.
0:02And they've run the ball very poorly at the goal line when they do.
0:02So what's ended up happening primarily is they just throw a lot inside the five or Shuck sneaks it inside the five.
0:02And so that's been part of the fun, like, touchdown rate for Tyler Shuck is he's getting all of the in-tight touchdowns passing or rushing himself.
0:02Because I don't think that they've had no ETN, I think, or Kendra Miller had a touchdown in week one.
0:02But they've really struggled inside the five when they have tried to run it.
0:02I'm expecting the... Actually, I'll go back on this.
0:02So week two, Kamara, which was the first week of Kamara being active, they really, like, featured him a lot in that first half.
0:02Where he ends up, like you said, he got 14 touches for 22 yards, which is a hilarious stat line.
0:02They actually deactivated Kendra Miller in that game. And they played the first half, not like a full 50-50 committee.
0:02Kamara ended up actually getting a lot more touches.
0:02If you looked at, like, the snaps, ETN was still playing more than Kamara was.
0:02But they played a lot of two-back sets. They were trying to emphasize both.
0:02It was clear, like, they had a game plan to really feature the running backs in Kamara specifically.
0:02Didn't work at all. In the second half, they went more, like, traditional one-back.
0:02They leaned on the pass more. They leaned on the receivers and tight ends more.
0:02And then coming into week three, Miller was active again.
0:02He didn't play at all in the first half, but he was active.
0:02And Kamara played far less. They did far less of the pony personnel stuff.
0:02And it was more ETN is the lead and Kamara is the secondary back.
0:02And then ETN got hurt. And then Kamara became the lead and they started working in Kendra Miller alongside him.
0:02I think that they already kind of realized, like, oh, this Kamara thing is not, like, something we want to feature.
0:02After kind of week two, it was not working.
0:02And I thought they had already made a move to scale him back.
0:02Now, they're going to have to scale him back up, obviously, because Travis ETN is now hurt.
0:02But my expectation would probably be that the offense looks a lot like it did in week one when Kamara was out,
0:02where everyone was expecting Travis ETN to be a workhorse.
0:02It was not in that game. He was splitting drives, like, almost evenly with Kendra Miller.
0:02But they were actually throwing the ball to ETN and they weren't with Miller.
0:02And then CJ Donaldson has been bizarrely playing, like, all of the long down and distance stuff all year.
0:02And I don't see a reason why that wouldn't continue.
0:02So I'm basically expecting it to look like the week one committee with Kamara in the role that ETN was in, Miller
0:02in the role that Miller was in, and then CJ Donaldson to keep doing some weird stuff.
0:02I think that there is at least potential for Miller to just take over as the early down runner if ETN misses, like, three, four, five weeks.
0:02If it's, like, a two-week injury, I don't think we have enough time for him to usurp him, see it, play it.
0:02And there's going to be passing game limitations with Miller.
0:02Like, I don't see him getting more than a couple of targets.
0:02So I think Kamara is, like, the guy you would start this week.
0:02But Travis Etchan's been pretty brutal, honestly, for fantasy this year.
0:02And despite being in a really good offense, because they've been doing a lot of splitting and because the running game hasn't
0:02been that efficient, Kamara is an inferior player. And I don't know that his role is going to be that much better
0:02than, like, what Etchan was in week one without Kamara.
0:02So I'm probably avoiding both of them this week.
0:02But I like Miller as an add. Like, if Etchan misses four-plus weeks, for instance, which seems possible, then I do think
0:02there's a decent chance that Miller can take over from Kamara, like, at least as the primary early down runner of that
0:02committee and as the goal linebacker of that committee.
0:02And that would make him, I think, potentially startable in a pretty fun offense.
0:02So, like, unless I need to start really, really badly this week, I would prefer Miller going forward versus Kamara.
0:02And I valued Miller somewhat similarly to the Dolphins' backs, which we can get to next.
0:02Because I think that, you know, the upside of the Dolphins' backs is you might have the lead this week and for the rest of the season.
0:02But I think there's some very serious limitations on the Dolphins' running backs.
0:02Whereas, for all the reasons that you kind of laid out, Saints are a really fun team.
0:02Yeah, that's great context about the ways that they're fun, though, that the running backs are not exactly super fantasy fun.
0:02I was thinking through that. Yeah, I mean, the way that you described the backfield is how I'm thinking about it, too.
0:02And I added Miller in a couple spots. But I think you're probably right.
0:02I guess the only thing that I would add a little color on my actual perspective on the backs is the way
0:02that you said, Miller, that there might not be enough time to sort of for him to win the job, for us
0:02to see it and to play it. I think that could happen this week.
0:02I think Kamara's been bad enough. I think it could happen, like, within the first half.
0:02Yeah. I think that's been, like, carrying into the second half this week where, like, if ET ends out for multiple weeks,
0:02then it may feel like Kendra Miller is a pretty viable play in week five.
0:02But, no, I think everything else you said is right.
0:02And I think Kamara is actually the one. My wife is hilariously playing fantasy football for the first time.
0:02Her family wanted it. Her little nephew wanted to do a league.
0:02And so we have a family league over there for the first time this year.
0:02And she's in it. And my older daughter's playing for the first time.
0:02I've been trying to get them to play. And my wife's, like, very competitive.
0:02So she's very into it. She loved Devon Achan's name.
0:02And so she drafted Devon Achan. She drafted most of the players off name.
0:02But then, you know, was asking me for some of the players.
0:02And I also told her I liked Brees Hall.
0:02She had a late pick. And she got him in, like, the 3-4 turn.
0:02Oh, boy. And so it was a tough week for her.
0:02So we were talking about, like, what she could do on waivers to try to address running back.
0:02And Kamara was available. So she got both Braylon Allen and Kamara ahead of, like, Kendra Miller and stuff.
0:02Because I was like, yeah, you need guys to play.
0:02And it's like a PPR league. And I'm like, that's the way that I wanted to play that from, you know, from
0:02our wife's team, which is probably the most important team that I have any kind of say.
0:02Yeah, of course. I mean, that's super important. But Kendra Miller was available as well.
0:02But like you said, for this week, for a play this week, like, when I had to do that, I was like,
0:02man, I'm going to – I just don't want the player to get zero points on her team because then she's going to be like, what the hell?
0:02So I'm like, all right, let's play Kamara. Let's go ahead with – he's going to get you some production.
0:02But yeah, Braylon Allen should play a ton. As we transition to the Jets, I'll let you kind of – I went
0:02so long on the same, so I'll let you kind of go.
0:03But one note I'll give right away is I think people – I saw Isaiah Davis get picked up a lot.
0:03I think people are expecting Isaiah Davis to be somewhat more involved than maybe I'm expecting.
0:03I think the past split with those two guys behind Hall is like an upside case for Isaiah Davis.
0:03And I think that from the perspective that this is a different coaching staff, Isaiah Davis has been active and playing special
0:03team snaps in every game, including week three. And Breece Hall got hurt, you know, not right at the very end.
0:03There was time. And Isaiah Davis did not play an offensive snap, has not played an offensive snap this season.
0:03He's been active all three games. He played 16 special team snaps with the Lions – against the Lions.
0:03And Hall went out whenever it was. I think it was at least early fourth quarter, if not late third.
0:03It was second half. I recall it being early fourth, but yeah, I could be wrong on that.
0:03It was on back-to-back green zone touches, I know.
0:03And it was on the second – It was definitely deep in the second half.
0:03Yeah. It was on the second of two green zone touches.
0:03I'm trying to find it in the game long.
0:03Anyway. Yeah. I'll confirm that in a second. Yeah, it looks like it was with 11.37 in the fourth.
0:03I just found the two greens on the sequence.
0:03That checks out. Yep. Yeah. So there was plenty of time.
0:03And there was a whole – they ended up having two more series.
0:03And the last series was a two-minute drill series.
0:03They're down 31-24. And again, Isaiah Davis did not play an offensive snap.
0:03He wasn't playing like a long down and distance two-minute roll or anything.
0:03Braylon Allen was the only other running back to play in this game.
0:03He caught some passes on that final drive. He had two catches as they were trying to create an opportunity to tie the game.
0:03They ended up getting up to the Lions' 28-yard line.
0:03And then Geno got sacked and fumbled. And that was the end of the game.
0:03But Braylon was the only guy to play. So, I mean, like I want to hear your thoughts on Braylon as a
0:03player and what you think of him as an ad.
0:03But I did want to say I think as far as usage is concerned that people are overstating or maybe are too
0:03optimistic about what Isaiah Davis might be under this new regime based on what he's been in the past.
0:03He's a fun player. He's been good. And I think he's going to play some.
0:03I absolutely think he's going to play some. But my default would be like 70-30.
0:03Like one of the heavier splits that we see with backups, it wouldn't be like 55-45.
0:03I think people think it's going to be like 55-45.
0:03No, I definitely don't think it's going to be that.
0:03So, yeah, I've been writing about this split each week because it has been meaningfully different.
0:03Last year when all three backs were healthy, the split was Hall was playing the majority of the early downs.
0:03Braylon was playing like some segment of those and was getting a higher share of short yardage carries or maybe not even
0:03a higher share of short yardage carries relative to Brees, but like a much higher share of short yardage carries relative to like first and 10 carries.
0:03And then Isaiah Davis was playing the third downs of the two-minute drill.
0:03That was last year when all three were active.
0:03This year, it's been a total difference. It's been Hall has actually played a higher share really of like the early down work.
0:03And one of the reasons for that is that Braylon has been playing all of the third downs, which has been, frankly,
0:03I think bizarre, but that's been what they've wanted to do.
0:03And then Braylon also gets like about a drive a half and he'll occasionally mix in for some carries here and there.
0:03And we've seen him get, again, like not a clear majority of the short yardage work overall, but he is more likely
0:03to be on the field for a third and one carry than he is on a first and 10 carry.
0:03I think overall, like the touches have been roughly like 75-25 or 70-30 kind of in that general vicinity for Brees Hall.
0:03Theoretically, like Braylon's been used in every type of game situation this season.
0:03So it's at least like possible that he gets like 90% of the work going forward because there hasn't been a clear
0:03game situation that's been a no Braylon Allen zone.
0:03Whereas in the past years, he was never playing in passing situations like he's been playing in this year.
0:03My expectation would be that him playing in passing situations this year is like less about they very specifically think Braylon Allen
0:03is the best like pass downs back on the team and more about we just want to simplify the rotation.
0:03Our best two running backs are Brees Hall and Braylon Allen.
0:03We want to use Brees Hall as much as we can, but we want to find some spots for Braylon to get on the field.
0:03And so this is kind of how the split has worked out.
0:03That's my read. It could be completely wrong. It's pure speculation.
0:03I think now they will kind of have a similar approach, which is like Braylon's our best back.
0:03We want to feature him. We don't want to play a running back 95% of the snaps.
0:03And so, okay, how are we going to find ways to get Isaiah Davis on the field?
0:03He's always been a completely passable like pass downs back.
0:03So I would guess that he gets that role back now with Braylon taking a ton more of the early downs.
0:03My expectation would be that essentially we see the same committee we saw previously, but with Braylon in the Brees role and Davis in the Braylon role.
0:03With the exception of I think Braylon will get all of the short yardage work, whereas Brees was splitting that with Braylon.
0:03So I actually think Braylon's role is going to be even better than Brees' role was.
0:03Before the injury. Now, I don't think Braylon's a better play than Brees because I think Brees is a much better player.
0:03So like I would rather have Hall in a slightly worse role than Allen in a slightly better role.
0:03But purely role wise, it's like almost a little bit like the old Dalvin Cook, Alexander Madison split where, you know, Dalvin
0:03Cook was a much better player than Alexander Madison.
0:03But Madison without Cook actually had a slightly better role than Cook did with Madison at times over in Minnesota.
0:03So there's a ton of those examples over times where the backup winds up just consolidating in a way the starter wouldn't because the backup was there.
0:03I mean, there's a ton of those. Yeah. It's like Kyle Monunga last year was an example of this too, where Swift
0:03missed, I think, a game or two. And Monunga got everything.
0:03So that's kind of how I view it. I view Braylon as like a mid-range RB2 with probably like a high-end RB2 quality role.
0:03I think he's fine. I'm not like the biggest Braylon talent truther.
0:03I think there's a lot of Braylon truthers out there because he looks very aesthetically pleasing.
0:03I don't think he's actually that dynamic or that shifty.
0:03I think he mostly just kind of runs with a full head of steam and plows into people.
0:03But I think he like clearly has workhorse size.
0:03He has three-down pedigree from college. He has legitimate skills as like a power back.
0:03And if you get him on the open field, he can get up a full head of steam.
0:03I think he's clearly preferred by the staff over Isaiah Davis.
0:03He can play in all game situations. He's going to dominate short yardage work.
0:03And most importantly, the Jets offense, which I think we were kind of on this all summer, is not in fact a
0:03like bottom two terrible offense in the league. It's completely fine.
0:03The skill players are, most of them are hurt right now.
0:03But the ones that are playing look really good.
0:03And some of the ones that are hurt are going to come back.
0:03And they look interesting. Gino hasn't been great. But he is like very clearly one of the best 32 quarterbacks in the NFL.
0:03Like, I mean, I would say he's one of the best 20 or 25.
0:03Like, he's fine. He can pile up the ship.
0:03He's going to have some bad throws. But he can lead a competent offense.
0:03And the offensive line is pretty effective. So I'm, of all of these running backs, like if I was in a, now
0:03Braylon was not available on any of the FFPC stuff that we play.
0:03But, you know, if you were in like a Yahoo League or an ESPN League, and I wrote up my waiver post
0:03this week, I thought Braylon was the very clear cut number one, even though you're probably only getting two or three weeks
0:03out of him versus an entire season of the Miami guys.
0:03Like, if you needed, if you were going to start Braylon, like unless you were just so stacked at running back, you would never consider starting Braylon.
0:03If you need to start, give me two to three weeks of Braylon over, frankly, the entire season of the Miami guys.
0:03Because I think he is the most plug and play guy and is like a top 15 to 18 running back play immediately.
0:03Love that. Completely agree. Yeah, my brain was like thinking of all the similar types of the second back consolidate stuff.
0:03I mean, even like you could argue Jalen Warren, like the Rico Dattel, regardless of who you say is the first was the lead back.
0:03But Jalen Warren played 96% of the snaps this week.
0:03He was questionable coming in. They had to like announce before the game that he was even going to be active.
0:03He played like every single snap because Dattel was out.
0:03There's yeah, there's been a million of those types of situations where the backup ends up consolidating.
0:03You mentioned the Mononga one's a great one. There's I had another one on my on my mind that I'm spacing on now that I'm talking.
0:03Charbonnet Walker was a classic one where we're like, you would always rather play Charbonnet without Walker than Walker with Charbonnet.
0:03For sure. Loved all your notes on Braylon and agree.
0:03That was how I did it for my wife.
0:03Just to I mentioned I had added her, but like that was the that was the top claim was Braylon even on
0:03the short term stuff, even over Ollie, even over, you know, Jalen Wright and those guys that have a little bit more
0:03long term and she had lost a chance. And she does have a third running back because she was she really liked Javante Williams name as well.
0:03So we have Javante Williams on that roster as well.
0:03So there you go. She's good shape. But no, I yeah, I love that note.
0:03And I agree. I think one of the things I was going to add about the Jets.
0:03You were talking about Gino. No, I agree with everything you were saying.
0:03He he you know, we've talked about him as a first read guy.
0:03He gets the ball out to where there are, you know, when the first reads open, when the first reads not open,
0:03he kind of just breaks down in the pocket.
0:03It's a little bit tricky. I would say that, you know, in the Seattle years, one of the big things was he was a pretty efficient passer.
0:03One of the points that we made on the Jets for people who are saying this team could be good is this
0:03is can't really be the same old Jets when it has a clearly improved skill position unit and they've lost Omar Cooper right away and lost Adonai Mitchell.
0:03As you mentioned, you know, they have some injured guys.
0:03Garrett Wilson made a catch in the middle of the field in this game.
0:03That was one of the better catches of the week.
0:03It was a really high throw on like a post over the middle that he got up for fully extended and brought in.
0:03And if it doesn't like if he doesn't go snatch that, it's probably picked off by one of the safeties.
0:03A lot of other quarterbacks who overthrow a ball like that over the middle, just get an interception on it.
0:03Instead, Gino gets a 30 yard completion. He ends up throwing a TD to Garrett Wilson in the front at the front
0:03pylon where Garrett Wilson's getting DPI'd and it looks like there's really no way Garrett Wilson had caught it and stayed in
0:03and then they end up challenging it and he did.
0:03And that was pretty awesome. Kenyon Sadiq goes, shows off the like elite vert and broad jump by doing like a, an
0:03elite vert broad dive into the end zone to catch a pass.
0:03It was a really well thrown ball behind the defender, but another sick play on a ball.
0:03That's not an easy one to bring in. There was an early game curl that Sadiq ran and just, you know, having
0:03played him a couple spots and some, like some of the deeper tight end premium, like FFPC stuff.
0:03I was pumped that he got a catch on this play.
0:03It was a little five yard curl and Gino threw it like three yards wide of him and Sadiq fully laid out
0:03and caught like a ball that was like a bullet.
0:03Not that, not that far downfield. He didn't really have a lot of time to react to.
0:03And you're like, dude, that guy's athletic as heck.
0:03It was only a five yard gain. But my point is like Gino did actually miss quite a bit of throws on this play or in this game.
0:03But as you said, like there are some really intriguing skill players on this team that have been playing really good.
0:03Garrett Wilson's ability to, to capitalize at the catch point.
0:03And we talked about how he freestyles a little bit on his routes.
0:03And he did that at one point and got criticized by Drew Brees for showing a line over the middle and Gino had already committed to the throw.
0:03And then he kind of like cut back up field.
0:03Like it was like a slant and go. He, he was trying to do and he had like a 20 yard completion
0:03and he did raise his hand right after the play.
0:03I wrote about it in signals. It was weird.
0:03It was weird that he like was adding to his route when Gino was already committing to the throw and he was open.
0:03It would have been a nice little gain if he would have just kept running where he was already running.
0:03And yet at the catch point, when there was tough plays to make, that's one of the things Garrett Wilson's incredibly good at.
0:03We talked about the one hand of TVs he's had in the past.
0:03I think we talked about it like, you know, in the preseason, we were talking about him, but he had some flashy plays in this game.
0:03Sadiq had some flashy plays. Also had a really nice catch and run in the fourth quarter for 43 yards.
0:03Like, yeah, Gino's going to have some stats when he's got guys doing that, this kind of stuff showing off Sadiq showing
0:03his athleticism like three different ways to translate into actual production.
0:03The diving catch in the end zone, even the diving curl that I mentioned.
0:03And then that catch and run where he's just off to the, like the races.
0:03He looks super fast in the open field on like an over route going up the opposite sideline gets a 43 yard gain.
0:03I mean, that was a super impressive breakout game.
0:03He's banged up for most of the game. He looks hobbled as he comes off the field.
0:03He only played, uh, I think he ran routes on like 50% of dropbacks, but super, super fun.
0:03Oh, I see. I see you, uh, moving something around on the show sheet.
0:03Cause we were going to talk about Sadiq later.
0:03Yeah. Anyway, we can just talk. We can just talk about him where we're talking about the jets.
0:03We don't have to, we don't have to get back to it.
0:03Um, the, the show sheet is a living and breathing document.
0:03Yeah. Um, yeah, I think Sadiq, I mean, I brought him up extremely favorably.
0:03How could you not? Um, I wouldn't be like based on some of the route rate limitations, they're going to get 80 Mitchell back soon.
0:03They're going to get Mason Taylor back soon. Like I wouldn't be surprised if we get an underwhelming week, like in the
0:03coming month where it's not just always going to be a top five tight end rest of season.
0:03But I think it's, it's very clear that he's going to be a major part of the offense moving forward.
0:03And even if there are some bumpy paths along, like I, I do think he's going to have more dynamic weeks like this.
0:03I think he's very clearly going to be a mainstay premier player for a long time.
0:03Like tight end production is bizarre. Like you can have weeks like Dalton Schultz had in week two, where he basically just
0:03racked up a bunch of volume that the defense gave him and he put up 12 for one 40.
0:03And it's going to be one of the highest tight end scores of the year, but it didn't change the way that I view Dalton Schultz one iota.
0:03And it wouldn't have even changed the way that I view Dalton Schultz if he was a rookie, because like he was
0:03just getting handed production for the most part over and over and over made, I think one really nice catch in there.
0:03But, um, You had a sick one handed catch up the seam in the first half.
0:03Yeah. That one was, that one was absolutely sick.
0:03Um, but Sadiq was like legitimately dynamic throughout and was creating a lot of his own production.
0:03You mentioned that six yard catch. That was one, like, I think it was his first catch of the game.
0:03Cause I remember being on the ship cast and I was watching that game because I, I mentioned that I had a pretty good DFS week.
0:03I played Gino and every one of my lineups this week and stacked them up with Garrett and with Sadiq and Hall and all different combos.
0:03And, um, and I was tracking that game pretty close.
0:03I saw that play. I was like, Ooh, like this is sweet.
0:03And that was the first catch. I think it went for six yards and then kind of just throughout the rest of the game.
0:03Like he continued to just stack these really impressive dynamic athletic plays.
0:03It's like, this is a guy that they're going to have to find ways to get involved.
0:03Like, uh, you know, every week is not going to be like this, but his arrow is pointing massively up for the rest of his career.
0:03Um, just incredibly exciting for him. Incredibly excited. That's the way to say what you just said about they have to get him involved.
0:03It's a toothpaste back in the, you can't put it back on the tube moment.
0:03Like you, you have to have, you have to have plans for him now.
0:03Yes. This, this guy's an absolute weapon. I mean, they have a good problem.
0:03The jets have, the jets have good problems right now where they have an absolute superstar and Garrett Wilson, who's going to remain the alpha of the offense.
0:03They have this incredibly dynamic mismatched piece, Kenny and Sadiq.
0:03They have 80 Mitchell, who is a, uh, like a imperfect, but like completely quality, uh, number two boundary wide receiver.
0:03And then at some point they're going to get Omar Cooper back who looked really fun in like the one quarter of
0:03action that we got to see him. Um, I mean, I don't know how they're going to figure out the road distribution for all these guys.
0:03I think it's going to create some headaches, but like we're talking about a team that was projected to score.
0:03I think the 31st or 32nd most points in the NFL this year.
0:03And now it's like, I'm talking about how are they going to find enough routes for all of these really dynamic offensive skill players?
0:03I mean, they're the arrow is pointing massively upward on the jets.
0:03They also probably going to add like three top 15 draft picks next year to this roster.
0:03Really fun stuff. Um, if you're a New York jets fan, so shout out, shout out Ron Stewart.
0:03He's the big winner, um, of this. And, and Braylon, I think is a really fun start next week.
0:03The last of these running backs before we get into some of the long view topics was the Miami running backs.
0:04And I'm guessing we see this somewhat similarly. And we had talked about it a bit because we got hit with some
0:04running back injuries on an FFPC team that we share.
0:04We ended up bidding just slightly too conservatively on the Miami running backs to add them.
0:04What, what are your expectations for Ollie Gordon, Jalen Wright moving forward as they get this season long opportunity now with, with
0:04the Von H channel for the year, unfortunately. Yeah.
0:04I mean, I think it's become almost a very popular take.
0:04Um, but, um, that all Ollie Gordon, even though he was the one that got huge bids is maybe not.
0:04I mean, I'm almost like swinging back on that a little.
0:04So the, the, the take that I've seen multiple times now on social and stuff was that like Ollie Gordon wasn't worth the really big bids.
0:04He's kind of a bigger back. He's more of a power back.
0:04He hasn't been that efficient. Um, they're not going to score a lot of TDs.
0:04So the goal line stuff isn't even that great.
0:04Uh, and, and I think that's a, probably a, uh, uh, like a legitimate concern.
0:04I actually not probably, I think that's a legitimate concern.
0:04I mentioned to you when we were going through our stuff that I might prefer Jalen Wright straight up, but I still
0:04like wanted to defer and bid Gordon slightly more, um, defer to sort of like some of the conventional wisdom and, and
0:04the fact that Gordon is like in the role right now.
0:04Now, I don't know how important this is, but you know, I watched the preseason games and write them up for preseason stealing signals.
0:04And I had written it up in the preseason that Jalen Wright, um, played ahead of Ollie Gordon.
0:04And I think preseason game two, I didn't even really, or maybe it was preseason game one.
0:04I didn't even really write about them in the other preseason games played ahead of him in one and two, and then they both rested in three.
0:04Okay. I didn't write about him in the other games.
0:04And I was looking at it cause I didn't, it must've been that I wrote it in week one.
0:04And then in week two, it was the same, but I didn't even note that.
0:04Cause I wasn't that into a, an unclear backup situation on a bad offense.
0:04Right. So, um, that's what people are concerned about now as well as people are like, the reason that Ollie Gordon and
0:04Jalen Wright were available is nobody cared about this backup situation.
0:04Um, and yet the other side of it is like, how deep is your league?
0:04What are you going to use your fab on the potential to get a guy who's going to be a starting running
0:04back and get starting volume for the rest of the season.
0:04And they're not going to like probably go acquire a running back or anything.
0:04I mean, it's, it's a possibility at some point, but they're not really in a position to do that.
0:04They would probably rather use these guys. And even though they're not great, like just startable running back points in these big
0:04tournaments, um, it's worth spending fab on like, what else are you going to spend fab on?
0:04Right. Like it's, that's sort of like the answer.
0:04And then, and I, I spent fab and got Ollie Gordon in some leagues that I didn't, I'm not into Ollie Gordon
0:04at all, but, um, I, I got him. Um, I got more Jalen, right.
0:04Because some of these teams need running back. Some of them are in really good shape at other positions and need running.
0:04And mostly the, the two that I got, Ollie Gordon had really good receivers, have a good tight end one has Kincaid one has Bowers.
0:04And it's like, they like have a good RB one.
0:04And it's like the RB two is the whole thing.
0:04And it's not that I think Ollie Gordon's going to answer that question, but like to have a playable RB two potentially,
0:04even just for the short term is worth whatever, 30%, 40% of the fab.
0:04I didn't spend a massive amount, but I ended up on one of those getting, I think Ollie Gordon, Jalen Wright and Kendra Miller.
0:04And I spent like 60% of my fab in total.
0:04I was like, Hey, you know, this is where I maybe went a little aggressive, but I had some drops and it was a deep league.
0:04And now I have some answers for the short term, at least in the RB two equation.
0:04But yeah, I, the, the, the general theory is just, you know, very similar for me to what I think the market thinks as far as right.
0:04Like he's a little bit more of an explosive back.
0:04I think there's more, the reason I'm like excited or potentially optimistic is I think there's a little bit more potential that
0:04we're talking about how coaches are thinking going to think about their players when it comes to like guys like Sadiq and stuff.
0:04I think it's certainly possible that they will think about right doing a little bit more of the H and stuff.
0:04And that's maybe part of also why he was already playing ahead of Gordon in the office.
0:04Like, and it's not just that like, that's the way they saw it in August and that's the way it's going to be.
0:04The point is like, they may have already felt that right from a scheme fit was the right backup because he's closer to what H and is.
0:04And Gordon is more of like a between the tackles power downhill runner.
0:04The other thing is that this offense is going to shift.
0:04The offense was built around Devon H and it was a lot of H and runs.
0:04It was a lot of passing day. And they were doing wheel routes in week one and throwing vertically to him was
0:04getting all these like interesting air yards. It's such a bummer for him that he's hurt.
0:04Cause he's missing out on a year where like a team built the whole ship out of him, you know, like he's
0:04the centerpiece of the offense and the focal point.
0:04And so it's kind of a bummer that he doesn't get an opportunity to actually play that season, but like, they're not
0:04probably going to do that with Jalen, right? They're probably not going to do that with Ollie Gordon.
0:04They're probably like the other guy that was vaguely interesting was Malik Washington, who was running into a lot of short areas
0:04of the field and getting a lot of short passes.
0:04Also got some vertical stuff and got two like wide running back carries in this game, like outside carries.
0:04Cause it's not really a Gordon thing, but the key thing with Gordon is like, yeah, I mean a lot of people
0:04bid on him cause he played over 80% of the snaps in this game.
0:04He scored a short touchdown early and yet he played 80% of the snaps.
0:04Cause Jalen Wright wasn't in the game and they were still like using Malik Washington as an outside runner to fit.
0:04Like the plan they had going into a game behind Ollie Gordon without a Chan when they had thought HN was going
0:04to be in the game is not going to be the plan that they have going into every single other game.
0:04Even if Gordon's the lead back behind Gordon next week, they will have a plan.
0:04Even if right, isn't able to be up cause he's banged up a little bit, they'll have a better plan behind Ollie
0:04Gordon in terms of what they will do. So anyway, the 80 plus percent snaps that Gordon got, I called it noise.
0:04I think it's clear noise. I think it's the, probably the biggest snapshot he'll play all year.
0:04I do think he has the short-term edge because he's a guy that was in the 80% snap role last week and Jalen Wright's banged up.
0:04But if Jalen Wright's plays in this game, it would not shock me at all.
0:04If he just plays more than Gordon, like they're just outright ready to play.
0:04Right. And then obviously people are going to be pretty bummed about the Gordon bids if he's not even the guy, which
0:04again gets back to this point of like, was it worth the bid?
0:04Was it worth, was it worth even rostering these guys before this week and why they were so widely available?
0:04And people would say that's why they weren't rostered is there was so much uncertainty.
0:04So anyway, my, my whole thought on it is I don't know what's going to come.
0:04I do think the offense is going to shift.
0:04And when I talked about that, the other thing I would just say is I think they're going to be more wide receiver focused.
0:04Caleb Douglas looked awesome. And then Chris bell looked really good in week three.
0:04Caleb Douglas was out. He Douglas looked awesome. And then week one really didn't do as much in week two, but like
0:04they got two third round picks at wide receiver that are rookies that have been looking good.
0:04Like they were trying to get Malik Washington going Malik.
0:04Willis has been chucking the ball. I think they're ninth in air yards, but they're 25th and pass attempts.
0:04We know that this offense is going to pass attempt limitations, but if they can be top 10 and air yards or
0:04even top half in air yards, that's notable. Douglas and bell have vertical elements to their profile that are intriguing.
0:04And so I do think they're going to be more of a drop back deep and maybe Malik will scramble.
0:04Like Malik Wills is a guy that I was, people have talked about as a late round quarterback.
0:04He has not been scoring. I was pretty skeptical of, and I think that's been right.
0:04That's skepticism. I think now he's an interesting ad in shallower leagues where he's been cut, where I think the scoring going
0:04forward almost has to be higher because the more of the offense has to be Malik Willis centric, where you will get
0:04the chunk gains if he's, if he's throwing that much vertical and you will get more scrambling when you run the routes downfield.
0:04His eight odd so far is third highest in the league.
0:04The only two quarterbacks higher are Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
0:04It's the same kind of thing. You're looking at vertical routes and then they're creating space underneath.
0:04There's not necessarily always a check down. There's a scramble and that's why the eight odd doesn't, it stays high because instead
0:04of there being a check down, it just becomes a run.
0:04And so it's like either we throw it deep or we run.
0:04I mean, it's not that simple, obviously, but that's been ways that Allen and Lamar offenses have operated in the past.
0:04And when you have that type of a quarterback profile, vertical passing plus QB mobility and rushing, it's great.
0:04Willis is nowhere near the skill sets of those two quarterbacks and he's going to be nowhere near the fantasy scoring.
0:04But if they lean into that a little bit more and lean into the wide receivers a little bit more, Willis becomes
0:04more of the focal point of the offense. The running backs become kind of afterthoughts.
0:04They're not catching passes and they're not really running a ton.
0:04And so it's the whole thing is, you know, I don't know who's going to win the running back room.
0:04And I don't necessarily know that it like super matters as you were alluding to, but my lean is sort of Jalen right.
0:04And then my lean is sort of like bump Malik Willis in your mind and bump these rookie receivers.
0:04Chris Bell, kind of a low key sneaky pickup right now.
0:04Yeah. Bell would be the most exciting guy to me because like what, what the, I think his best attribute coming out
0:04of college was the catch and run ability. And we saw kind of like the exact play that he made a name
0:04for himself on in college this week where he caught like a pretty short in breaking route.
0:04And then he just turns on the afterburners and ends up turning it into like a 40 plus yard play down the sideline.
0:04I, I don't know the exact yardage, but it was a huge chunk play on that little in breaker.
0:04Like that is, that's the kind of play that got Chris Bell, AJ Brown comps coming out of college.
0:04Now I think those are pretty lofty when you look at the overall production profile of Chris Bell, but like that specific
0:04trait is a trait that he shares with kind of early career AJ Brown, where you think about him catching those slants and you can't catch him.
0:04He's just gone. Like that's, that's what Chris Bell does best.
0:04And that's what he was able to show in that game.
0:04And if you can kind of find fun ways to try to get him into space on these shorter in breaking routes,
0:04drag slants digs, and see if you can get him peeling up a bunch of yak, maybe get him involved in the screen game.
0:04Some like that's, that's, I think a fun dynamic option for their offense.
0:04You mentioned Caleb Douglas. He's going to probably miss again.
0:04He's dealing with an ankle sprain. So I think Bell's the most fun guy here.
0:04Um, terms of the running backs. Uh, so I, I, I see it's, I think mostly similar to you, maybe with a slight more preference towards Gordon.
0:04Um, I wrote up a lot of the same stuff you did about the sort of sequencing of the preseason.
0:04So yeah, Jalen Wright was the guy who, who appeared to be the RB two in preseason.
0:04I'll also note that while it's a different head coach, Bobby Sloak was on the offensive staff last year.
0:04So there is some carryover from last year. Ollie Gordon started the year playing the second most snaps behind Devon Achan.
0:04And then Jalen Wright actually was playing more of those secondary snaps over the course of the year.
0:04So he kind of won the RB two job last year.
0:04And I had always said somewhat similarly to, um, what you just said is like, even if Ollie Gordon's playing the second
0:04most snaps beside Achan, I always perceived that Wright was more of Achan's direct backup because of the duplicativeness and skill sets
0:04that like, if you're looking for a back to play 20% of the snaps next to Achan, Gordon probably makes more sense.
0:04But that doesn't necessarily mean he would be the lead back without Achan.
0:04Um, it's a bit of like the, the, the Ty Johnson plays the second most snaps on the bills, but I'm not
0:04so sure that Ty Johnson would, would be the back to own if James Cook went down.
0:04You're looking for the skills you're looking for in a complimentary back aren't necessarily the same that you're looking for in a lead back.
0:04Um, all that being said, I, I do prefer Gordon a bit in a vacuum largely because we've talked all off season.
0:04Um, since we kind of started the show about being bearish on Achan this year, despite his, him being like one of our favorite players in the NFL.
0:04And I think us both agreeing, he's one of the most dynamic fun players in the whole league.
0:04Just this situation is really tough and like Achan's ability to be extremely dynamic.
0:04And the level of his talent kind of warranting this absurd opportunity share is kind of the only reason that he's even startable.
0:04And, and we still thought he was a pretty big fade around two.
0:04And we're tracking to probably be correct on that even before the unfortunate injury.
0:04So based on this environment, like for anyone to be particularly startable, I think you need to be more than just the lead back.
0:04I think you need to consolidate a ton of volume.
0:04And when I look at these two running back profiles, like Jalen Wright's a guy that, um, I've watched a lot of.
0:04He played at Tennessee. It's the call team that I root for.
0:04Um, he's super fun. He's super explosive. He never saw more than he never saw 150 rush attempts in a season came out.
0:04Like he came out in the same class as Marshall and Lloyd.
0:04And they were both like kind of somewhat similar backs in terms of being really explosive backs.
0:04Um, but never really earning like a major share of the team's volume with peripherals and stuff were better, but, um, they shared that trait in common.
0:04If right is the lead back, I guess I would be absolutely shocked if it's like 85% opportunity share Jalen, right?
0:04Like that, that's just never was really his profile.
0:04Um, and so if, if you're right about right, like what do you get from that?
0:04Because if you get a 60% backfield opportunity share on the dolphins, that might be below the threshold of like startability.
0:04Whereas Gordon, um, he was a Doak Walker award winner, had a massively productive season at Oklahoma state in year two.
0:04And then really fell off in year three. I thought he was kind of similar to Braylon Allen coming out in terms
0:04of a profile I didn't love, but where I really respected like the ability to display a massive workhorse volume at a
0:04very young age and at a real program. And I do think he is the better pass catching back than right.
0:04I think he's clearly like kind of the more situated goal line back than right.
0:04And I think he is the one who has a volume consolidating profile.
0:04So if Gordon was able to separate, I mean, my guess is it's going to be a committee regardless, but if Gordon
0:04was to be the one who really gets a stranglehold on the job, I do think he has the type of profile
0:04that wouldn't stun me if he was getting that 75, 80% opportunity share.
0:04And I think that's kind of what you need.
0:04So I prefer Gordon just because I think that the world where he's the lead back has a higher like workload ceiling to it.
0:04But if I had to guess, I think it'll be like right probably leading a committee in which both are largely like very bad flex plays.
0:04But so I agree with everything you're saying, but I don't know if I agree with the conclusion because I guess I do think that right specific usage.
0:04And touches could be more interesting even at a 60%, you know, snapshot.
0:04You had said at the 60% snapshot that maybe that wouldn't even really be playable on Miami.
0:04I don't think it would be for Ollie Gordon because most of that's just going to be like carries between the tackles that are like low value touches.
0:04But if Wright's getting the edge rushes that have more potential for explosive runs and then more importantly to me, some passing
0:04game work, which is not really like his whole thing.
0:04But like if they still want to do some of the like wheel routes and stuff they were doing with A-chan that
0:04they obviously have in the playbook, like are they going to have Ollie Gordon run those vertical downfield routes?
0:04Are they going to? Probably not. I don't know if Wright's going to do that either though.
0:04Yeah, maybe he's not either. Maybe a more explosive space player for sure.
0:04Maybe it's more Malik Washington. And Gordon actually had a good receiving profile when he was like the Doak Walker.
0:04You know, you were talking about it may actually be that Gordon ends up like stylistically.
0:04I would have said it was definitely not Ramondre Stevenson last year, but he was second.
0:04Gordon's a lot like Ramondre Stevenson in terms of like a big non-dynamic pass catching back.
0:04Yeah. And he's the one who ended up doing that with the Patriots last year.
0:04He had the second most receiving air yards among running backs last year.
0:04Some of that was because Henderson kind of played himself off the field.
0:04And we've talked about like I thought some of what Ramondre ended up getting as far as vertical targets last year was like probably intended for Henderson.
0:04But I mean, yeah, it's not impossible for a guy like Aldi Gordon to do that.
0:04So it'll be interesting to see. But yeah, that's I agreed with everything you said, but I would just say that like
0:04there's a world in my head where if Wright does lead a committee is 60% or whatever.
0:04The touches are valuable enough, but we would we'd have to see him do some stuff that maybe he hasn't quite done.
0:04So, yeah, I don't know. I think it's a good point.
0:04And I think it's a tricky spot is what we're ultimately getting to.
0:04It is a tricky spot. Like, I mean, I think he would get more of the Achan touches.
0:04I agree with that. I guess like how many points did you think Achan was going to score this year?
0:05Because like I think he was going to score like 13 points per game.
0:05And so if you're giving Wright. That's a huge part of it.
0:05Right? Like so if you're giving Wright. If I was fading a dynamic player like Devon Achan in this situation and he
0:05had all the work and I was still like didn't want to pay for it.
0:05But the difference is we had to pay a really high cost for him.
0:05And this is a way to work up. This is fat.
0:05Oh, yeah. So, I mean, from like a league.
0:05Yeah. From a strategy perspective. And I didn't even touch on this.
0:05I should have. I mean, I. I was really kind of I was on the side of like don't really blow your fab on these guys.
0:05In like home leagues where there are a lot like in a lot in a home leagues.
0:05Braylon Allen was regularly available on waivers and players like Braylon Allen who are very clear.
0:05Number two is would be plug and play options.
0:05Like if you're in a league like that where that guy's on waivers.
0:05To me, it's kind of save your fab for that quality of play because we're probably going to get more running back
0:05injuries at some point over the season. But in the FFPC formats that we're talking about, none of those guys are on waivers.
0:05Right? The guys who are the obvious number twos who you'd be really excited to slot into a lineup.
0:05They're all drafted. They're all on rosters anyways. So you're only getting like I feel really uncomfortable about this running back ads on waivers.
0:05And so I don't know how many better running back ads you're going to get over the course of a season in
0:05an FFPC format than these Dolphins backs. So I was happy being reasonably aggressive on running back needy teams there.
0:05I agree with that. Yeah, I just think like the thing that I've tried to emphasize all year and that you have
0:05as well is that the fate of Achan never had anything to do with Devon Achan.
0:05We think he's one of the best players in the National Football League.
0:05And yet, I think he was probably on track to be like a mid to low end RB2 this year.
0:05And so if Wright gets two-thirds of what Achan was getting opportunity share-wise and is nowhere near the quality of player that
0:05Devon Achan is, it's like, what are we getting out of that?
0:05Like, I think it's going to be like nine to ten points a game as kind of like a ceiling, which is
0:05like, you know, if you're in an FFPC league and, you know, you're staring at like, Rashad White is your RB2, it's
0:05like, yeah, I'd probably rather take the shot on nine to ten points a game from Jalen Wright.
0:05That's fine. So I definitely think it's spot dependent, but I get the upside case for sure.
0:05Totally. So that was the long short view. Long view topic today, we wanted to talk about young players going in different directions.
0:05We started last week talking a little bit about some of the dead zone backs.
0:05I don't know that we talked about Bachel Tootin a ton, and that was one of the names that I floated to you.
0:05Wanted to talk a little bit more about. We have a couple of them on the list here.
0:05Tootin and Travion Henderson, who I think we maybe talked about a little bit.
0:05He had a really big week two, obviously, or he had a long touchdown run, and then it was actually quite bad after that.
0:05And we talked a little bit about this, and we were talking about how we had kind of framed it similarly in terms of what we expected.
0:05Week three to be, and that was basically the way it was with the Patriots.
0:05Stevenson played more snaps. They were one apart in touches.
0:05I think it was 10 to 9. The Patriots offense being so poor, not ideal for the backfield to be fantasy relevant.
0:05It was pretty close between the two until Stevenson started getting going a little bit in the third, and then he got to play a little bit more.
0:05And so I think it maybe even would have tilted Henderson's way had Stevenson not started to kind of earn more.
0:05And we kind of said this is going to be fluid.
0:05Who's playing well? Henderson had another tough game, just like he did for most of week two after the long touchdown run early.
0:05And I know you do a lot of charting with the backfield stuff.
0:05I brought him up, wanted to talk about him again this week.
0:05And like I said to you in the text, I was like, I mean, is he just bad?
0:05Like a lot of people say that he's bad.
0:05A lot of people say he can't read the holes, that he isn't patient enough.
0:05You talked about it last week. I think you called Ramond J.
0:05Stevenson a more mature runner in that regard. I kind of wanted to check back in with you on what you saw on Henderson in week three.
0:05We have Henderson, I think, on two of our three teams, main events together that we're doing.
0:05I keep forgetting he's on the one with Lawrence because we have other good players.
0:05Yeah, we don't have to think about playing him.
0:05The other one, he unfortunately just got promoted because we have Brees Hall on that team.
0:05We got to start him. But there's teams that I don't think on our teams we even really have a discussion because
0:05we have to start him on the one. And we sort of, it's easy to bench him on the other.
0:05He's a fascinating one because it's like, if there's good options, I'm playing the other options over him.
0:05And if there's not, I have to play Trayvon Henderson because he has the ability to, we know, to hit big plays, explosive plays.
0:05Like you're not going to bench him for a really inferior play.
0:05But I kind of expect like five points or some five points.
0:05Like I don't have a lot of optimism right now for a lot of scoring.
0:05I wanted to get your, like, again, you write the great hitchhiker's guide.
0:05And I wanted to get your like running back scouting report on him.
0:05And also Tootin. We, like Tootin was like, I just, I wanted to be more clear on where Tootin's at.
0:05I'm watching him and I love, I'm loving what I'm seeing.
0:05They're also playing a ton of other running backs.
0:05They're playing three other running backs. Like I make my visuals and I usually don't put more than three running backs in the visuals.
0:05But like three other guys are getting meaningful volume.
0:05I have to do four, four backs into the visuals.
0:05I was reading my buddy Sean Siegel's piece over at Rotovis last week.
0:05And he, he joked that, you know, after week two, that the Jaguars cared more about, you know, sticking to some weird
0:05running back split than winning the game. Because he maybe didn't joke.
0:05Maybe it was being dead serious. Like joking is probably the wrong way of putting that.
0:05But he was essentially saying, look, they played him 55% of the snaps or whatever.
0:05And then the other 45% of the snaps, you have an inferior player on the field.
0:05What are you doing? Like Tootin looks awesome. He's, he's creating yards through tackles, through contact.
0:05Both of these guys have gotten criticized for not reading the right hole and not like playing the running back position.
0:05Right. And it's not something that's like a huge film trait in my tool bag.
0:05I don't spend a lot of time looking at the, I famously refuse to look at the end zone angle for any running back highlights.
0:05I only look at the sideline view, especially for Keaton Mitchell.
0:05Tootin, Henderson, what are you seeing in your charting of these guys and sort of what like charting or however we put it, you're watching them closely.
0:05I always think the charting thing's funny. It's like, oh, I charted all the, it's like, I mean, a lot of them are getting like 12 carries.
0:05It's like, what did you see on the 12 carries?
0:05Like what did I didn't chart them? I watched them and I took notes and then I wrote about them.
0:05Exactly. Exactly. Like it's, and it's like, you're like, like on like six of the 12 carries, it's like the play wasn't
0:05there or there wasn't, you know, it's like, there's not a lot to even take from it.
0:05So it's like, what did you see on the key reps for these guys this week?
0:05Yeah. I mean, so first off they played the, the Patriots played the Jaguars run defense, which is one of the best in the NFL.
0:05I think even the best in the NFL, they play a lot of bare fronts.
0:05They have good interior guys. And so most running back efficiency against this front is usually quite poor.
0:05So I think it's like a tough week to be especially harsh, especially in the context of Patriots offense being completely like untenable as a whole.
0:05But like, I would say, I just saw a continuation of what I saw in week two.
0:05And in what I saw, like as kind of the negatives of the profile in year one, which is just like a lack of rhythm, feel, patience.
0:05There was one rep that really stuck out to me where I think it, I think that the play is called dart
0:05where, cause typically when you see a polar, it's usually the guard and that's power.
0:05Um, but it was kind of, I, it was the tackle pulling and I believe they use your foot of that as dart.
0:05Anyways, the point is Henderson basically treated it as a race with his right tackle to see who could get to the
0:05hole first, but that's not a race you want to win because then you get to the linebacker before your tackle is there to block the linebacker.
0:05And Henderson did win the race. He got to the linebacker first, which meant he just got instantly tackled as his right
0:05tackle was trying to be like, Hey, actually I want to get to the hole first so that I can block the guy so that you can run.
0:05And it was like kind of a comical rep where there's this tiny little hole between the left tackle and the tight end.
0:05And it's like Henderson and his right tackle sprinting to get to the hole first and Aluakon just waiting for both of them.
0:05And then Henderson getting like essentially pinned against his own guys.
0:05And it's like, if you just kind of waited a second and let Morgan Moses get into the gap, like, I don't
0:05know if he would have had much room to run because Henry was getting squeezed a little bit too, but it would
0:05have looked more like a real run. Whereas it was just kind of a record scratch moment where you're like, wait, what's going on here?
0:05And it was like, oh, cause he's just, he's like trying to beat his tackle into the darn hole.
0:05It was crazy rap anyways. And it's just like stuff like that.
0:05I'm just like, are you processing the game? Well, you know, or are you just kind of, this is the hole I'm going to run through.
0:05I'm going to get the ball. I'm going to run as fast as humanly possible directly into that hole.
0:05And I mean, I, I get it. Like I, um, you know, I've never, I've never played competitive football.
0:05And like, if I was running back, I would probably make disastrous decisions all the time.
0:05But like that, that was a really weird rep.
0:05Um, and it was kind of indicative of other weird Henderson reps.
0:05And I would say it's just kind of, there's a lot of plays where there was nothing there, but I don't see the creativity.
0:05I don't see the feel. Um, I, I, I'm holding him to like a much higher standard in year two.
0:05And then I guess I did in year one, like in year one, most of my Henderson commentary kind of like, there
0:05are some issues or some imperfections that was a really strong college prospect profile.
0:05There's also some huge positives. He's super explosive. You know, I'm expecting him to fix the imperfections and keep the positives and
0:05like play up to that prospect profile over time.
0:05You start getting into year two, you've had the full off season to get accustomed to the playbook to the national football league.
0:05Like I would like to see more of those negatives mitigated over time.
0:05Um, and I don't really. And it's tough because he's in a spot where Ramondre Stevenson lost a lot of goodwill.
0:05I feel like that he had by playing not that well in week one and then instantly losing a fumble in week two.
0:05You have an offense where Drake may is coming off this great season.
0:05He now looks awful. They lose AJ Brown, the first game of the year.
0:05They're like crying out for someone to be a dynamic playmaker.
0:05There seems like the featured player of their offense right now is Mack Hollins.
0:05Um, and it's a spot where like, I'd really love to see Henderson step up and put on the cape and be
0:05like, no, I'm going to be the key player in this offense.
0:05And outside of that one really nice touchdown run, it just hasn't happened often enough.
0:05So, um, you know, I don't know if he is like bad, but he's, he's deeply flawed and he doesn't seem like he's making enough progress.
0:05It's, um, he, he of course played the Jaguars this week.
0:05So when I'm like watching the film on these guys, I'm watching him and Tootin back to back alternating two guys from the same class.
0:05And like, yeah, I, I think I wrote like, it was extremely apparent which of these second year players is currently a better running back.
0:05Um, and I think it's Tootin by like a pretty wide margin.
0:05Um, Tootin had just like run after run that I thought were really, really impressive.
0:05Um, there was a sequence where he had two straight carries that I think were inside zone carries and like one of
0:05them, he was kind of patient and he like stepped up, stepped up, followed his read through the hole, got, I don't
0:05know, seven or eight yards, like through the lane that was designed.
0:05And the next one kind of immediately sees that the defense is reading it.
0:05They're flowing into the run. There's open backside and he makes a super decisive cut back out to the left, picks another
0:05chunk of like seven or eight yards. And it's like, he made the correct read both times handled the run completely differently.
0:05Um, was patient and one when he needed to be, he was decisive.
0:05And the next one, when he needed to be bounced, when he needed to bounce stayed within the design of the play
0:05when he needed to, it's like, this is like, this is like the processing stuff.
0:05This is the instinctual stuff that you get really excited about seeing in a year or two back on top of the
0:05very obvious physical gifts that he has where he's got the four, three speed.
0:05He's been one of the top tackle breakers this year, like just really, really impressive stuff.
0:05I, I think he's legitimately a budding star in this league and is like fulfilling kind of everything that we were excited about for him.
0:05And then I'll note on the usage stuff that I think it was more encouraging than it looks like.
0:05I know that we kind of made the same point about price last week for saying, oh, it's more encouraging than it looks like.
0:05Then he goes ahead and fumbles away, um, that take, but he played, um, 21 of the first 28 snaps in this game.
0:05So that takes him right up until the two minute drill, the first half at that point, it was 21 snaps for him.
0:05Uh, like Quint Allen played like the third down and longs and then, uh, Rodriguez and Abdullah played, I think two or three snaps each.
0:05So it was like very clearly tuned. It was really weird that it was four running backs, but if it was 21 to seven, no one would care.
0:05Like he played 75% of the first 28 snaps.
0:05Then LaQuint Allen played the two minute drill, um, which I expect is just going to be a thing.
0:05And then the second half Tootin comes out, he gets carry and then he gets a 15 yard catch and he kind
0:05of got brought down hard at the end of the 15 yard catch.
0:05Um, we were tracking it really closely on the ship cast because we had Tootin in like two of our pickums and
0:05Tootin didn't play for the rest of that drive.
0:05And there was a Jaguars reporter saying, oh, he looked like he got shaken up at the end of the catch, but
0:05he looks fine and he has his helmet on, but it looks like they're just going to keep him out for the rest of the drive.
0:05The rest of that drive ended up being 13 plays.
0:05And that's, um, so Chris Rodriguez got most of that drive.
0:05The other backs worked in. And then, uh, the only other drive in the third quarter was a one play drive where
0:05C-Rod got the touchdown after Drake made through interception.
0:05They come back in the fourth quarter, Tootin's back in.
0:05That ends up being the drive that he gets the touchdown on after Trevor Lawrence went down with the one.
0:05And then they have one final drive, which is only three or four plays.
0:05It was all Amir Abdullah running out the clock.
0:05So he ends up with like a 48% snap rate, but I think that he was tracking for a 65-ish percent snap rate.
0:05He just happened to get banged up on a 15 play drive after two plays and they were up by a ton of points.
0:05And so they kind of let C-Rod go. Watching the flow of the game, I'm pretty confident that there was no chance
0:05that the first drive of the second half, that their plan was Tootin's going to play the first two plays and then
0:05he's not going to play for 13 plays after that.
0:05That wasn't how they were operating at all for the rest of the first half.
0:05So I would project that he will see a season high snap rate this week if the game script isn't super weird.
0:05And if he maintains health throughout the game, I think we'll see him in the 65%-ish range where he's going to play
0:05the vast majority of early down snaps. And he's not going to play like third and longs.
0:05He's not going to play the two-minute trail, I don't think quite yet.
0:05But I think he is pretty much iced C-Rod and Abdullah for the most part on early downs.
0:05And I'm really, really excited about how he looks and how I think the coaching staff is starting to respond, even if
0:05it's taking like a little bit longer maybe than we'd want it to.
0:05That's awesome for him. I didn't notice that, but I'm excited to see if that comes to fruition and we get a big week four from him.
0:05And then your note on Travion I was just laughing at about the rep in the holes.
0:05I mean, I guess we just have to hope that there's nobody there because this thing of running as fast as he
0:05can straight downhill sometimes leads to the end zone.
0:05It does. If it does, sometimes it does. I mean, he is.
0:05Like, that's the thing. It's tough for me to talk about Travion because one of my biggest beliefs is that running back
0:05film bros are way too dismissive of explosiveness because it's like they kind of only grade on the decision-making process, I feel like, sometimes.
0:05And so a lot of times people roll their eyes like, oh, well, whatever.
0:05That was unblocked. Who cares if he made a 60-yard touchdown?
0:05I'm like, no, it actually does matter because a lot of running backs would turn a perfectly blocked run into a 12-yard gain.
0:05And the fact that Henderson turns those 12-yard gains into 50-yard touchdowns really matters.
0:05It's just like, I wish that that wasn't the only plus trait that we see consistently is converting perfectly blocked runs into touchdowns.
0:05Like, I wish that we could see more. And I wish that they would use it more in the receiving game.
0:05I'll just, like, I don't know whether that's a Henderson isn't repping well.
0:05I don't know whether that's a Josh McDaniels issue.
0:05But it seems to me that based on his profile and based on, you know, how fast he is in the open
0:05field and how dire their playmaker situation is, like, that would be one way that I think you could use Henderson is,
0:05like, why don't we just throw him four screens a game and, like, get him on some wheel routes and try to feed him?
0:06Like, why don't they use him like RJ Harvey in Denver?
0:06You know? Who I think is also, like, an imperfect back.
0:06But they're throwing to him five, six, seven times every game to take advantage of his, like, open field, like, raw athleticism.
0:06I don't know why we can't do that with Trevion Henderson.
0:06But they don't seem like they're doing that. He has one target this year.
0:06Yeah. That part of it is weird. That part, I mean, it's, I think it's, well, I don't know.
0:06Maybe it's that the pass blocking so bad that as soon as he's in the huddle, every defense is, like, we're going to blitz.
0:06We're going to try to make him pass block.
0:06Yeah, maybe. I don't know. Like, there's no way he's worse at pass blocking than RJ Harvey.
0:06Like, I don't know. Figure it out, I guess, is what I would say.
0:06But seeing how Henderson plays in other aspects, I don't want to, like, just put all the blame on Josh McDaniels.
0:06I think he's, I think Henderson's earned some of his own blame.
0:06But I definitely think that the answer can't be zero targets.
0:06I don't understand how that's happening. But it is, it is what it is.
0:06It is. The other running backs we wanted to talk about, two earlier round running backs, two recent first round picks, going in different directions.
0:06As you noted, we got Jeremiah Love, who looks incredible.
0:06We got Omari and Hampton, who's a concern. You were talking about the Hampton Mitchell thing.
0:06I alluded to it in the intro. So, and I want to hear your thoughts on that more.
0:06I guess, so, I guess I would say that I'm still, I'm not, a lot of people are very pessimistic on Omari and Hampton this week.
0:06And I think it's very warranted to be pessimistic on Omari and Hampton this week for obvious reasons.
0:06He got much, much more limited work in week three.
0:06It was mostly the stuff, as I was watching, I was like, this is what Jacob was talking about.
0:06It was mostly the stuff kind of between the tackles that we're talking about with like, like might be the concern with Ollie Gordon.
0:06And then anything that was like a stretch outside type run, these plays that you were saying that he struggles with, we're
0:06seeing a lot more of Keaton Mitchell on some of those plays.
0:06He ran pretty effectively, eight carries for 52 yards.
0:06Hampton gets 15 carries. He only gets 56 yards in this game.
0:06Mitchell also gets three targets in the game, gets one in the green zone, the, the, like the lower red zone, right?
0:06Gets a jet motion tip pass from the one.
0:06And there's an end that actually gets some, some penetration.
0:06And Mitchell does a really good job to side to step that play in the backfield and, you know, make the play
0:06a success and go and score on a, it's a one yard reception.
0:06Ultimately the other times I tried to get him the ball in the past game, get blown up immediately.
0:06And that's been, that's happened in multiple other games.
0:06He winds up with negative five receiving yards and a touchdown over his three receptions.
0:06He's had some tosses and some other plays that have gone for substantial negative yardage as well.
0:06They did, like I said, get him going to the edge on the eight carries.
0:06You said that Mitchell was, you would be like actively buying him.
0:06And I was really into Keaton Mitchell in the off season.
0:06And when I was doing my projections and all of that stuff, I thought he'd have a real role.
0:06He's had a role. They're trying to get him going.
0:06He has 11 touches in week three, obviously like there's some positive stuff there, but as somebody who was coming at, I
0:06mean, all these things we talk about it from like a Bayesian perspective, you have your priors and you're updating them.
0:06As somebody was coming at this from a perspective that Keith Mitchell was going to be awesome.
0:06And Mike McDaniels offense and that Mike McDaniels offense was going to be good to be frank.
0:06I'm not that thrilled about what I've seen through three weeks with Keith Mitchell.
0:06I'm, I'm actually a little bit concerned. He doesn't have a ton of explosive plays.
0:06He has 85 rushing yards in three games. He's got 10 receiving yards.
0:06It doesn't even have a hundred total yards over three consecutive, you know, games.
0:06They are using him more. It does feel like it's trending upward.
0:06But the reason that I'm saying this is as far as Omarion Hampton's concerned and this read that like Mitchell's on the,
0:06on the arrow up, which is a case that you made beforehand.
0:06And I want to shout out that you were right about the direction this could go because I'm seeing it everywhere.
0:06Now I'm seeing it at like the major places.
0:06I was on CBS where I used to work.
0:06I have a league over there and saw that they're talking about Keith Mitchell's role growing on, you know, on the sidebar and stuff.
0:06And I have him on that roster and I'm like, you know, that's awesome that they're, you know, those guys are promoting
0:06this as well within the context of the fact that this is now a pretty universal take because he was better than Hampton in week three.
0:06I feel like it's being overstated a little bit again, from the perspective that Mitchell's eight for 52 rushing yard line was
0:06like more or less the most efficient thing that we've seen from him.
0:06He is, you know, he had a five for 24, 4.8 yards per carry in week two.
0:06The week one was only four carries for nine yards, but it was only four carries.
0:06So like for the season, he's at 5.0 yards per carry.
0:06Like it is solid and he's getting more work and there is efficiency there, but there has been some plays that have been blown up.
0:06And I guess my point is just like, it's not like the keep Mitchell stuff is working so clearly.
0:06And so obviously that that's again, he doesn't even have a hundred total yards in three games.
0:06Like it's not like it is a, an immediate and an obvious keep Mitchell is a superstar.
0:06And he's taking all of this from Omari and Hampton.
0:06Omari and Hampton is still a first round pick a year ago.
0:06He's in year two. He still has a strong profile overall.
0:06He may not be a good fit for this run scheme, but there's an anti-fragile element to draft capital and those things
0:06that I'm seeing Omari and Hampton talked about. Like he is somebody that if we were redrafting for today, people would take in the double digit rounds.
0:06And I guess for me, it'd be like round five.
0:06Like he's lost some rounds of value, but he'd be a dead zone.
0:06He back. He'd be in the two, like where we were taking tooting on like profile, but uncertainty about role, maybe around four.
0:06Cause maybe I'd be more confident that he's actually going to get work.
0:06Cause they, they, what the other thing they did in week three was they used more Camani Vidal.
0:06Cause they're like, we want to get him going.
0:06And so that's how I'm seeing it with, with Hampton.
0:06But I, I have a lot of Hampton. I don't feel great about that.
0:06We talked about it. Like after week one, I didn't feel great about it.
0:06Cause I wound up with, you know, Hampton with you.
0:06And I wound up with, with Sean, like because of where we were landing in some draft spots, more with Sean than I wanted.
0:06And with you, my two main co-managers. And I'm like, I'm overexposed to Hampton, especially relative to where I would have wanted my exposures.
0:06Like personally, I did obviously have Hampton ranked very highly as well.
0:06And I had him as a target, but I wanted things to be spread.
0:06I also have multiple shares of Walker. I've talked about this because of where I was at.
0:06I have a lot of Walker too. I have a chase Brown share.
0:06I have gente share. Like, you know, they're like, I had a lot of teams back in that range.
0:06I have multiple seating lamb shares and Trey McBride and all the, you know, like I got a lot of late round picks and yada, yada, yada.
0:06But I'm, so maybe I'm seeing it through rose colored glasses.
0:06Cause I need Hampton to be good. But I guess I feel like this idea that has week three snap share is
0:06anything other than like the rock bottom is what's weird to me because people seem to think that this is going to
0:06be like predictive or it may even go down further.
0:06And Keaton Mitchell is just going to be the starter.
0:06And it's like the, the, like, I love Keaton Mitchell, but I, I do think he's limited in some capacities.
0:06One of the big things I wrote about when I wrote about in this off season is he had more of a
0:06workhorse profile than I think people realized in college.
0:06And there's more to the profile than people realize as far as what the overall package actually is.
0:06And yet again, they used more of it all in this game because, and then Mitchell has an ankle thing now, like
0:06he's, he has had some health issues at the NFL level.
0:06He is more of a change of pace, explosive play player where, you know, my big case when I wrote him up
0:06in the off season was there could be standalone value.
0:06There could be 10 touches or could be what we saw in week three, eight carries and three receptions.
0:06That's what I was visualizing with the potential for a touchdown with the potential for some greens out.
0:06I'm a, I'm super annoyed. Cause I, I bet Keaton Mitchell, Keaton Mitchell, anytime TD is like a small amount, both in weeks one and two.
0:06And then I like forgot to do it in week three.
0:06And then he finally scored a touchdown. I'm like, it's like eight to one, like, come on, whatever.
0:06I'm probably not eight to one, four to one, five to one something.
0:06I wish I would have had a Keaton Mitchell anytime.
0:06But of course, like I've been betting like high lemon every week too.
0:06And of course I still bet lemon this week, but of course the one week I feel like I failed to get Mitchell's bed in there.
0:06Anyway, I feel like what I felt about Keaton Mitchell was reasonable and that he's doing really well.
0:06And he's, you know, close to hitting on it.
0:06I, I though see a limitation to how much of this backfield he takes over.
0:06I think it's there in the Vidal usage. And I think it's there.
0:06And again, this anti-fragility aspect to the fact that Hampton is a former first round pick.
0:06And even if he doesn't really fit, they still want to get him work and they got him work.
0:06I mean, they were just calling different run plays, trying to call ones that fit his style or whatever more, but 15
0:06carries for him in this game, even as he's running in effectively.
0:06And arguably is part of the reason they lose this game is they give 15 carries to Amari and Hampton.
0:06Cause they had some of, they really did not capitalize on the five Buffalo bills turnovers in this game.
0:06They wind up losing a game that they want a five to one turnover differential and Buffalo's offense being what it is.
0:06I mean, just to get that many turnovers. I mean, there's only like 10 possessions in a game.
0:06I don't know how many they had. And it looks like both teams had 11 official possessions.
0:06The chargers just basically kneeled out the half. The bills are running out the clock at the end of the game.
0:06Both had basically 10 real possessions and five turnovers on 10 possessions.
0:06And you don't win that game. Like you've got to go win that game.
0:06You're Owen too. Like this is your chance to come back and get to one and two, if you're the chargers.
0:06And they were so inefficient on offense. And a huge part of that is you get 15 carries tomorrow.
0:06And Hampton. So I see the concerns and having said all of that about the concerns and about keep and showing all that stuff.
0:06I still think it's like borderline crazy to assume that Omarion Hampton's just not going to be a part of the offense going forward.
0:06So am I too optimistic on Hampton? Like, am I visualizing this wrong?
0:06Part of the reason I wouldn't draft him in round four is like, I don't know if I would draft any running
0:06back in round four, because to me, it's like most of the running backs that were going in that group, like are
0:06either guys like tootin to me or Irving to be that if like separated where I would want to draft them a
0:06lot higher, or guys that, you know, like David Montgomery or whatever, where it's like, oh, this isn't going to work.
0:06And then I wouldn't be interested in drafting them at all.
0:06And I mean, Hampton, I think is maybe the most polarizing of this kind of player in terms of not really knowing
0:06how it's going to work out for the rest of the season.
0:06I mean, right now, like snapshot and time analysis, their running back room is essentially being deployed the same way that like
0:06Denver's is where Marion Hampton is basically in the JK Dobbins role.
0:06Keaton Mitchell's in the RJ Harvey role and Kamani Vidal's in the Tyler Bidet role.
0:06And like, you know, if that's how it stays all season and a Marion Hampton is like basically a JK Dobbins level play, like that's really bad.
0:06I could see it going in very different directions though.
0:06I mean, I, the biggest issue of Marion Hampton has right now is like beyond the scheme fit, like rushing efficiency stuff.
0:06He ran six routes this week on 38 dropbacks.
0:06So like, that's completely untenable if that holds. Cause I mean, that's basically a zero level involvement in the passing game.
0:06Keaton was the guy getting the early down passing usage.
0:06And then Kamani Vidal, you know, you mentioned his snaps being up.
0:06Most of that was in passing situations. He ran 13 routes on 17 snaps.
0:06He only got two touches. So like that has to change in a massive way for Hampton and really less about the
0:06Vidal, like basically like playing the Quint Allen type snaps.
0:06It's more about Keaton's being the guy out there for early down receiving work.
0:06And then the biggest issue overall, and why it's hard for me to get too excited about Mitchell, even as much as
0:06he's improved relative to Hampton is, you know, that's sort of my, my take after week one, um, which I appreciate.
0:06And a big reason for that take though, in week one was I felt like Mitchell stock was rising relative to Hamptons,
0:06but my expectation for the offense as a whole was that they would bounce back from how bad they looked week one.
0:06And so I felt like, okay, if Mitchell's rising relative to Hampton, but this offense as a whole meets what my expectations
0:06are, then Mitchell could be a smash. My expectations for the offense have recalibrated downward substantially after seeing two more weeks of
0:06them continuing to look like a total mess. And so, you know, my expectation for, if you had told me preseason that
0:06Mitchell's going to carve out this level of role in what I thought would be a top five or at least top
0:0610 offense, and an offense that specifically wanted to emphasize the running backs a lot, I would be ecstatic.
0:06But now we're getting kind of the dream role for Keaton Mitchell, but like the pie of the offense is a lot
0:06smaller and less inspiring than I thought it would be.
0:06And they're not emphasizing the running backs in the way that I thought they would be.
0:06Like, even though Keaton is getting, I think the most interesting past game role, like you mentioned, he got three targets this week.
0:06There were five targets total to running backs on 38 dropbacks.
0:06Um, that's not, you know, what we were envisioning.
0:06I think it was. Yeah. Like they're, they're basically not throwing the back.
0:06Well, actually, if you count Alec Ingold, there were nine.
0:06I mean, he's the one getting targets right now.
0:06That was absurd. Well, that was in response to the lack of tight ends.
0:06They were using Ingold. They went to a lot more 21 personnel instead of 12.
0:06I mean, they were already playing a ton of 21 personnel.
0:06I wrote, I think my quote in the Checkers guide this week is that Alec Ingold's presence is a limiting factor for
0:06the tight ends, the running backs and the chargers.
0:06Um, which like, I don't know what the point of him is.
0:06I mean, I like, I don't know Alec Ingold.
0:06I hope he's a great guy. I'm so tired of watching Alec Ingold.
0:06He lines up. I hope he's a great guy.
0:06This is tangent time. He, he lines up five to six yards behind the line of scrimmage on all these plays.
0:06He runs 17 different motions that don't do anything.
0:06No one's threatened vertically by him because he's a fullback who lines up six yards behind the line of scrimmage.
0:06He misses blocks. He misses blocks routinely. He is like getting targets for some reason.
0:06I don't understand why he is so big of a part of this offense.
0:06He, he is like, they are playing 10 and a half on 11 at best.
0:06Every single time he's in the game. It's infuriating to me.
0:06I don't understand why they're using him. I don't understand how they're using him.
0:06I like, I genuinely can't think of a play that I've watched from the chargers this year where I felt like they
0:06would be better off using Ingold in this priority role they've made for him versus just substituting him for another tight end
0:06or wide receiver or playing two halfbacks. Like I, I, I, his usage has been incomprehensible to me.
0:06Um, it's so bizarre. I don't know what he's adding.
0:06I don't understand why every single play for the chargers, they seem to have three or two players lined up like six yards behind the line of scrimmage.
0:06Like it's bizarre. They, every play there's a running back and then there's either a second back or a receiver or a
0:06tight end or Ingold or three of them that are lined up so far behind the line of scrimmage.
0:06And they're motioning everybody this way in that they're, they're, they're bringing about so many issues because either they're motioning guys, which
0:06is bringing more defenders into the box, which is confusing their offensive line because they don't know who's coming from where.
0:06And so they're missing, um, run fits. They're missing blitz pickups.
0:06It's the whole thing is a mess and it's so overcomplicated.
0:06And I, I genuinely don't understand what some of these motions are doing.
0:06Like they'll have these motions where it's like, okay, Ingold's going to start in this sniffer position.
0:06And then he's going to motion like back into the backfield.
0:06And then he's going to come out in this motion.
0:06It's like, to what point? Like other than to give the defense more time to line up and to get your own players confused.
0:06This offense has been so frustrating to watch. Anyway.
0:06Um, yeah, Ingold's an issue. I just think he's an issue for everybody and including just the effectiveness of the team.
0:06I, I guess like if, if this offense is going to work and it's going to stay like within the Mike McDaniel kind of vision.
0:06Um, I think that the Keaton play will pay off.
0:06Uh, because I, I do think like he is the one who fits this current offense better.
0:06But I also think the current offense is a disaster.
0:06And I would not be surprised if Mike McDaniel is fired in three weeks.
0:06Um, and they just go back to a more traditional Jim Harbaugh offense.
0:06And they give a Marion Campton 24 carries up the middle running power.
0:06Um, like that's a world where I could see this playing out.
0:06Like, do you think Mike McDaniel makes it through the season?
0:06This offense is a mess. It's really bad. I hadn't thought about that, but we just, because he was such a high
0:06profile higher, but it really wouldn't shock me if they decided to go a different direction.
0:06I think like one of the ways, I don't know if I came to this conclusion or you or somebody else I've
0:06talked to, but one of the ways I've heard it mentioned is that it feels like Jim Harbaugh and Mike McDaniel are
0:06both, like negative, like force more multipliers is like, I think the term that you like to use on each other, like
0:07Jim Harbaugh being the head coach for Mike McDaniel is making the Mike McDaniel offense worse.
0:07And Mike McDaniel being the OC for Jim Harbaugh is making anything that Jim Harbaugh does worse.
0:07I, one of the things I don't understand is Jim Harbaugh's offenses are usually very technically sound.
0:07And this, this team keeps making so many egregious mistakes, like within a football game, they got down to like a second and one.
0:07I talked about how they ended up having such a hard time, converting.
0:07I think they got to a second and one from the goal line and committed like some type of a false start.
0:07And then I think they were at like a third and six and committed like another five yard penalty.
0:07And they ended up with like third and goal from the 11.
0:07And it's like, you have second and goal from the one lock it in, like do not commit whatever it is.
0:07It's just a bad penalty. They're making, they've had a ton of those kinds of penalties.
0:07They had a, a defensive one where the, the bills had multiple holding penalties in a row and gotten to like, it
0:07was like, it was still second down, but it was like second and 27.
0:07And I, I, I'm like, I'm watching it. And I wrote about this in signals, but I, I'm like, this is absolutely
0:07going to be one of those situations where they're going to get one of the automatic first down defensive penalties.
0:07Cause it's second and 27. And all you need to do is just, and like the bills are on their own side of the field.
0:07All you need to do is sit back, rally, tackle, give them a 10, 12, 13 yard completion.
0:07Who cares? Do that twice. They'll still have to punt.
0:07I mean, you can't give them to 15 yard completions, but like they need 30 yards and two plays.
0:07Very next snap. They got, it was still second down.
0:07They didn't even get to third down. They got a defensive holding in the secondary automatic first down.
0:07And it's like, what are you doing? How are you that on disciplined?
0:07Like I'm a average Joe watching the games. The first thing I'm thinking of it.
0:07Second and extra, extra long is there are a lot of penalties on the books here that ruin the situation.
0:07And we have to get a punt out of this.
0:07We have to get a stop. I got to be communicating to my players.
0:07Do not grab and hold. We will like call a defensive play.
0:07That's a deeper zone that allows guys to pass guys off.
0:07Don't put them in man coverage where if they get double move, they feel the need to grab and hold, you know,
0:07like again, work, work from back to front, rally, tackle, like figure out the situation, get, get into a punt.
0:07It's not that difficult on second and 27 to force a punt when the team's way back on their own, you know,
0:07side of the field and you can allow some yardage.
0:07It's not like you had to keep them out of field goal range or something.
0:07Anyway, it was, it was atrocious and they've had plays like that.
0:07They, I wrote about that in the ceiling signals after week one.
0:07And then again, after week two, that it's just bad football stuff.
0:07Like there was the, the game against the Raiders.
0:07The sequence was, that was just mind numbing. Cause Clint, Clint Kubiak was completely like, he's done a great job of coaching,
0:07but he was completely overmatched in the game management situation there.
0:07It was something where Justin Herbert's arm got hit and it was ruled a fumble.
0:07And it went to a fourth and seven. And the broadcast is sitting there saying they needed challenges.
0:07I think that Ryan Peyton, any guy who's been doing a lot of the NFL stuff did a big tweet about this.
0:07So people probably saw it on social. I wrote about it in signals earlier in the week, the whole sequence.
0:07So I'm not stealing it from him. I it's published, but the, it was, it was, it was an, it was a
0:07mind numbing obscene sequence where the announcer of the broadcast is literally talking about, they need to challenge that the, the chargers
0:07recovered the fumble and got a six yard gain out of it.
0:07And they're saying challenge that cause it's a pass.
0:07They didn't, uh, Clint Kubiak does not challenge it.
0:07They get to a fourth and one. They let them run a snap.
0:07Um, or they're going to let them run a snap.
0:07The, the Raiders, I think use the timeout. This is exactly right.
0:07They use a timeout and like just challenge. Why not just challenge?
0:07Then they come out of the timeout with 12 guys on the field.
0:07This is the thing that I couldn't, it was the most insane thing I was writing about in stealing signals is fourth
0:07and one out of a timeout and you have 12 defenders on the field, automatic five yard penalty for breaking the huddle
0:07with five players or with 12 players, five, uh, gives them a first down.
0:07And then immediately after the first down, so that was all Raiders mess ups.
0:07Then immediately after the first down, the chargers are down like six.
0:07It's like a key spot. They got to go score a three or something.
0:07It was a one score game. Maybe they're down one.
0:07I can't remember. Omari and Hampton fumbled on first down right after that.
0:07And then the Raiders went and scored and made it a two possession game.
0:07It was obscene. And like, that was the coaching mistake.
0:07You're not coaching mistake. It's a player mistake, but like ball control has got to be emphasized there as well.
0:07And you know, there are teams that fumbles happen, but there are teams that are a little sloppier with the ball and some of those things.
0:07And it's just, was it, it was indicative on the charger side of not being well prepared, which has been an issue
0:07throughout their games on both sides of the ball.
0:07It's never been a hardball thing. So you have the McDaniel issues, but you have the hardball issues too.
0:07It's like, I mean, he's the head coach. Like some of this falls back on him too.
0:07Yeah. I just think the whole thing has been, I agree with you.
0:07I think the way that you put the running back stuff and the Hampton stuff, you answered my question.
0:07Well, which is I was talking about like, what's the deal with when you made the JK Dobbins comparison, I was going
0:07to say, I mean, Hampton has 50 carries. He had a 20 something carry game in week two.
0:07He had only 12 in week one and 13 in week two.
0:07Well, my comparison there is specifically based on how it looked in week three.
0:07That's like, if that week three distribution was to continue for the whole season, because he did, he did have like a
0:0758% snapshot in week one, 63 in week two.
0:07And then it was way back. Yeah. His, his role, like his, his role is decreased in each successive week.
0:07And it doesn't mean that that's a linear thing or that's guaranteed to happen.
0:07I'm saying like the snapshot of his week three role is the JK Dobbins role, but like his week one role and
0:07week two role were, were not, they were not the role I wanted for him.
0:07The route share has been low consistently, like to a concerning degree, but he was at least in like, like in week
0:07one, he was basically in like a Barkley role, which is like, well, week one, he only had the 12 carries, no targets.
0:07Week two, we had 23 carries, two targets had over a hundred total yards.
0:07His snapshot actually went up five percentage points from 58 to 63.
0:07And then week three was just like, Oh, we lost 20 percentage points.
0:07His snapshot drops all the way to 42, but you may be seeing something on when you're saying it's well, the route,
0:07the routes came, the routes came down. Okay. Yeah.
0:07So, I mean, they didn't run the ball that many times in week one, cause they were trailing so hard.
0:07I just meant like the first two weeks, really, there wasn't that much of a difference between week one and week two.
0:07Like in week one and week two, he profiled as a very clear early down back who was losing like some early down receiving stuff to Mitchell.
0:07And well, in week one, Vidal didn't even play.
0:07And then Vidal started to play more in like past pro situations.
0:07He played a little bit more in week two, and then he played a lot more in week three.
0:07But yeah, it's the Dobbins comparison, strictly the week three usage, which may or may not hold.
0:07I mean, I guess my argument would be that like, based on how McDaniel's trying to run this offense, I think that
0:07the week three usage is probably more optimal in terms of their running backs.
0:07But I don't know that this is like a goal.
0:07Like, I don't know that this Mike McDaniel offense is, is working.
0:07So I wouldn't be surprised if, yeah, well, actually, I don't know if it's working.
0:07It's not working. Yeah. So that's what I was going to say.
0:07I pushed back on the Dobbins thing. Like minorly, I was going to say that was the only thing, but then the
0:07other point that you had made there was your expectations for the church's offense after week one was that they would rebound.
0:07And by week three, you're pretty concerned. That's how I've written it up in ceiling signals as well.
0:07And I was like, yeah, it's great. It's a great point.
0:07It's a great, I'm still thinking about like, who's going to win this backfield and, and what's the usage going to be like.
0:07And I haven't thought enough about, yeah, I am terrified about the overall offense.
0:07And I wrote that in signals after week three, like that was, that was a shockingly rough loss for them.
0:07I like the week two game was also very rough.
0:07So week one, horrible, but you're like, okay, maybe it was just week one week two.
0:07It was rough, but they fumbled that I was talking about the Amari and Hampton fumble because it was kind of a
0:07fascinating situation where there was, you know, it wasn't a good game for the chargers.
0:07There was a lot of different things going on.
0:07They were down. I just pulled up. They're down 17, 14.
0:07They were across midfield. They get the first down after that sequence.
0:07I described with the too many men on the field and the, the fumble that was really an incomplete pass.
0:07And the Raiders should have challenged to make sure that the fumble got overturned to an incomplete pass.
0:07Cause it would have saved them six yards and made a fourth and seven instead of a fourth and one.
0:07Right. But after they get that and they get, they get lucky and they're not playing great against the Raiders, but the
0:07Raiders look like a pretty good team. The Raiders win a good game against the saints.
0:07I think the saints look like a pretty good team, to be honest.
0:07There are teams I did not expect to be good.
0:07And those are teams that had, they combined for, I was looking at it earlier today.
0:07They combined for like, I think a nine and 25 record last year or whatever it is.
0:07Not, not, not, I think it's nine. Yeah. Nine and 20, whatever.
0:07Um, they're going to beat that this year. They're going to beat that this year.
0:07Those two teams are going to beat that this year for sure.
0:07They, uh, and a big part of those nine wins was the saints winning late in the year when they were playing
0:07the really soft schedule, but they were the six win team and the, and the Raiders were a three win team.
0:07And they both kind of played like three win teams for the, at least the first half of the year.
0:07And then the saints had a decent little end of the year, but they both look like much, much better teams this year.
0:07And, but in this game, they, they have that big mistake where they don't challenge.
0:07They get the fourth down. The, the chargers get the first down there across midfield.
0:07And then Hampton fumbles. If Hampton does not fumble there, they're down 17, 14.
0:07There's a very decent chance that they're, they, they get into field goal range and tie the game and, or are able
0:07to cap that drive with a touchdown. Instead, the Raiders, there's, there's four minutes left in the game at this point.
0:07Instead, the Raiders come back with a touchdown drive.
0:07It was a three play touchdown drive after the fumble was returned all the way to the 16 yard line from midfield.
0:07So a three play touchdown drive, uh, that started in the red zone.
0:07Raiders go up 24, 14 charges are now in desperation mode.
0:07There's three minutes like immediately flips from, you have the ball across midfield down three to you're in desperation mode.
0:07And they throw like four straight times. And Herbert ends up throwing a pick and then, um, ends up actually throwing a
0:07pick six, uh, with like under two minutes left.
0:07He threw two picks after this point, they, they threw a pick.
0:07They get a, uh, three rushes, but the charger saw timeouts.
0:07We're able to get the ball back again. And then Herbert throws a pick six.
0:07They lose 26, 14, but it was not like a, or no, sorry, not a pick six.
0:07It was a, I see a scoring play here and I'm getting confused.
0:07It was an offensive holding in the end zone for a safety.
0:07That's actually what happened. 26, 14 end of the, um, end of the game there.
0:07But it was, it was closer to the chargers winning.
0:07And I was, I was willing to be like, well, week two was actually an improvement.
0:07They got a hundred yard game out of Omari and Hampton.
0:07They probably could have won this game late and maybe the Raiders are decent.
0:07And I also have some clown show stuff in that game that you didn't even mention, which was like in Joku playing
0:07volleyball directly to a defender on a perfectly thrown 30 yard completion.
0:07They had a Rondae Gadsden doing a scramble drill up the sideline where he deflected a ball away from Brennan Thompson.
0:07Like there was Brennan Thompson stone dropping like a 20, like they had a lot of just like curb your enthusiasm music plays.
0:07Which is not good for your team. Which is not good, which is not good.
0:07But I guess like they had a mix of issues in that game that felt systemic and isolated.
0:07Like there were systemic issues, which was scheme not fitting to talent.
0:07Why do they commit so many false starts and holding penalties and like execution issues?
0:07But they also just had like guys dropping passes in the deflect directly to defenders.
0:07And it's like, well, that's not going to happen every single week.
0:07And so anyways, I didn't mean to cut you off.
0:07That's the point I was trying to make. Great, great point.
0:07I agree with your overall like takeaway that week two had some systemic worrying issues and also just some like comedy of
0:07errors, game from hell type stuff that felt not repeatable.
0:07And whereas week three felt more like everything was going right in week three.
0:07And yeah, and they're somehow still blowing it. And you're like, what you're getting everything.
0:07You get three fumble and their defense is playing great.
0:07I want to give their defense credit. They got an early punt as well, but they get three fumbles.
0:07And one of those fumbles I think was on a third down, but you're setting the point of the turnovers is you're
0:07setting up the offense with great field position as well.
0:07The offense only like coming out of the first half where there was four or they got, they got a punt.
0:07The first four drives for the bills was fumble quick punt where they only had four net yards interception, interception.
0:07The bills had had 11 total yards and you're getting great field position off these.
0:07And the chargers did score on that first drive, but they scored on that first drive and Herbert threw a pick that just got dropped.
0:07Like it was right to the guy's chest. He threw a wheel route to Alec in gold that had a safety over the top.
0:07You never throw the wheel route. Like I'm all about running back air yards.
0:07If there's a safety there, you get the one-on-one and then you're like, yeah, there's my guy and you don't throw a
0:07wheel route to Alec in gold period. Like, what are you doing?
0:07Like you don't run that to the fullback and what?
0:07And he just hits the safety in the chest and safety drops the ball.
0:07And it's like, wow, okay. They ended up scoring a touchdown on that drive.
0:07That's the only touchdown of the game. They're like super fortunate to get that first TD.
0:07They end up punting on the next drive. They get a field goal where they started in plus territory.
0:07They end up missing a field goal on probably their best drive that started from their own 10 of at least the
0:07first half, but they get all the way into field goal range, but they miss the field goal.
0:07Dicker uncharacteristically misses. They take over in good field position again and punt.
0:07And then the bills do wind up scoring 10 points on their last two drives of the half.
0:07It's 10, 10 at half. And I had put in my notes for stealing signals.
0:07The chargers blew an opportunity here. And the second half starts and they get two fumbles.
0:07They get a Dalton Kincaid fumble on a play where he's just beasting everyone and can't be tackled, but they're able to punch the ball out.
0:07Kincaid looks awesome on this play up until the point where he fumbles.
0:07And then they, they, they strip Josh Allen right after that.
0:07And they only get three points off of that.
0:07They end up having to punt and they're only up 13, 10 and you have five takeaways at this point.
0:07And it's just not good enough. I mentioned the Herbert dropped interception.
0:07Another issue was Herbert throws an interception on a post over the middle.
0:07And Tom Brady's calling this game. And he's like, there's a safety in the middle of the field.
0:07The middle of the field is close here. It's one deep safety.
0:07The, his quote, I put it in stealing signals was something I'm going to paraphrase something like the thing you can't do
0:07when you have one deep safety in the middle of the field is throw the post.
0:07It's the only thing you can't do is like, I just don't know what Herbert's doing here.
0:07And it's like, that's not ideal. When Tom Brady's on the call and it's like, I can't even explain it.
0:07The thing he should be identifying at the beginning of the play is where the safeties are.
0:07And then if, if there's a deep middle safety, middle of the field close, you don't throw the post right into the safety.
0:07It's absurd. It was an absurd interception. They were Herbert.
0:07Herbert I defended as not being the problem. The first couple of weeks, I think they could have won.
0:07And we, I thought, you know, there was some, some schematic issues and some other stuff in week one.
0:07You mentioned the week two stuff. He gets screwed over by Njoku, bobbling up the interception.
0:07You mentioned the around a Gadsden curb, your enthusiasm play.
0:07I obviously talked to Tom about the, the Marian Hampton fumble.
0:07These are not things that are solely on Justin Herbert.
0:07Yeah. Week two, Herbert is getting lucky for like that interception early and going, getting the touchdown and the chargers are getting,
0:07um, so many offensive possessions, even when they're failing and punting that you shouldn't be able to ask for against the bills,
0:07but your defense is coming up massive for you.
0:07For the most part, they wind up later. As I noted, giving up the free first down on the second and super long.
0:07That was just an absurd situation, but like you can't make mistakes against the bills.
0:07You can't be, you can't fail to execute against the bills.
0:07They're eventually going to beat you. They win this game going away.
0:07They take the lead by one and then they get the ball back and they score another touchdown.
0:07The bills should have won this game by 40.
0:07They should have won this game by 40. They end up winning by eight.
0:07They absolutely should have won by 40. They take the lead 17, 13.
0:07They score again. They go up 24, 13. There's no world where the bill should have been up 24, 13 with three
0:07minutes left in this game with how poor they were on the execution side of the equation with the five turnovers and everything.
0:08I'm sure bills fans were like, what the hell did I just watch?
0:08Like they're expecting their offense to be a powerhouse and this is the opening of their new stadium.
0:08And they're turning the ball over like crazy. And you're like, this is a bad twilight zone.
0:08And your team still wins like comfortably. It's very bizarre.
0:08That's the worst getting the bills are going to play all year long.
0:08Yeah. And they still win comfortably by eight points.
0:08They stay covered. There were seven and a half point favorites against an O and two team.
0:08And they covered by a half a point. I mean, just an absurd, absurd game that the chargers when I think you
0:08said it perfectly, what I was trying to say about week two, there was a mix of systemic and whatever other word
0:08you use, but not repeatable stuff from week two, week three, everything goes their way.
0:08Everything in a football game. You could ask to go your way goes their way.
0:08And they just shoot themselves in their foot over and over and over again.
0:08I mean, at least the offense, like the defense was doing a great job.
0:08I want to give the defense credit, but like they also shot themselves in the foot on the one play, but regardless,
0:08I've said this over and over again. I just, I think the, I agree with you getting back to the Hampton and
0:08Keaton Mitchell thing about the chargers as a team.
0:08It looks like a massive concern. It could go a million different ways.
0:08Mike McDaniel. I'm, I'm taking very seriously your, your, your call that like he could get fired.
0:08Like, and I guess I hadn't really given that any kind of real consideration, but it wouldn't shock me because they have
0:08to do something a lot different and they're not making adjustments week one, week two, week three.
0:08There were some positives in this week three game.
0:08Like they did have a lot of total yards, but when you get this many takeaways and you get this many opportunities
0:08with the ball, you got to do more. You got to have more answers.
0:08And there, some of the stuff that they're trying isn't even that good.
0:08It's not some of the stuff they're trying. You talked about the Alec Ingold stuff.
0:08And I talked about like the keep Mitchell passes other than the touchdown.
0:08And even the touchdown, he has to make a great athletic play to get a one yard TD.
0:08And he ends up with negative five receiving yards on the three catches total.
0:08It's like every time they're calling that play, the bills are like, know the play call.
0:08Like how, how is, how is it so easy for you guys to like, uh, be like completely in the backfield and stop these plays.
0:08I mean, it might be Daniel looks like he doesn't have answers right now.
0:08And it's, it's obviously quite alarming. So anyway, I, I, I agree with your general point as you were talking, you know,
0:08circle all the way back to the Amarian Hampton thing that, that Hampton's, um, usage isn't the only concern.
0:08The other concern is that the charges are like, he's not a good fit for a bad offense.
0:08Like that's a problem. Right. Like hopefully. I mean, and if you want to make a Hampton bull point, which like are
0:08few and far between these days, I guess what it would be is that there's a train right now that is favoring
0:08Keaton Mitchell, but that train is driving off of a cliff.
0:08So like, it might not matter who's the conductor of the train that is like actively crashing into the ocean.
0:08It's like, I'm Keaton Mitchell. I'm like, I'm, I'm driving the train.
0:08It's like, Oh no, that sounds really not good for Keaton Mitchell.
0:08He's right. So, so it's like, maybe, maybe this train, you know, turns.
0:08And like, I don't think Keaton Mitchell is the problem to be clear at all, actually.
0:08But I, so like maybe this train turns and the path is then Mike McDaniel offense is like here to stay and
0:08they get better at it over time. And in that world, I think this is great for Keaton Mitchell, but like there's
0:08other worlds where Mike McDaniel is either fired or Jim Harbaugh is like, yeah, like you're still the OC, but like you
0:08no longer have free reign over this. Like we're going to make some changes and we're going to simplify things and we're
0:08going to take out some of the stuff that isn't working.
0:08And like, I don't know what that, I don't, basically what I'm just trying to say is that the, the momentum of
0:08the current offense is trending towards Mitchell, but the offense is so untenable that there has to be a consideration for ways
0:08in which this offense looks drastically different, either under Mike McDaniel's OC or not.
0:08And I have no idea what those versions look like.
0:08There's no guarantee that those versions, the solution for that is a Marion Hampton.
0:08Like I, that's, that's definitely not guaranteed. It could be, it could be Keaton, but this gets all the way back to
0:08my very first point, which was like, right. You can't be super low on Hampton.
0:08If the stuff with Keaton isn't working amazing. Like if they don't, if he doesn't even have a hundred total yards, I
0:08was like, right when we started talking about this, it was like, it's your, it's your train point.
0:08It's like, we're not on the tracks. It's not like we're, we're chugging along with the other running back.
0:08Like everything is a disaster. So the answer has got to come from somewhere and it very well could come from Hampton,
0:08but it definitely doesn't have to, to your point, it could come from Keaton.
0:08It could come from, or there could be no answer.
0:08That was the point that you made that I didn't, they may not be able to steer this train back onto the right direction.
0:08It might just be a train wreck. It may just be a problem for this whole season for the chargers, which is
0:08really, like you said, where we're headed. That's where the tracks are headed is off a cliff right now.
0:08It's not great. I want to, it's just, Oh yeah, go for it.
0:08So if you had another thought there, we definitely want to talk about a few wide receivers and tight ends.
0:08We do. I just, the last thing I wanted to say, McDaniel, because I've been really complimentary of him in the past.
0:08And so I just wanted to kind of address that because I, I'm ragging on him a lot here and I don't want it to come off.
0:08Like I'm like some person who's pretending to have always been an anti Mike McDaniel when I've been very much the opposite.
0:08I've just been legitimately stunned at how bad the offense is oriented because I felt like, what I loved about Mike McDaniel
0:08so much was that he came to Miami and he had like personnel with very specific strengths and weaknesses.
0:08And I thought he devised an offense that was incredibly tailored to mitigate their weaknesses and accentuate their strengths.
0:08And I just kind of assumed that that was the Mike McDaniel special sauce.
0:08Like it wasn't the specific plays or the specific formations, the specific packages.
0:08I thought that the goal was really more about like, no, this is a guy who emphasizes his player strengths and mitigates his weaknesses in creative ways.
0:08And that that would be the core of what translates to other personnel.
0:08And I don't know if that was the case then.
0:08And he maybe just kind of fell in love with his playbook too much over time or whether maybe it was just
0:08a coincidence that like he has a specific offensive vision that happened to really line up with his personnel in Miami.
0:08Like, I don't know, but like, it's felt like to me that he's, it's become a good hearts law offense, which is
0:08like where I always talk about where, when measures become targets, they cease to become measures.
0:08And it's like, it's felt like it's now more about how do we get the fullback involved?
0:08How do we come up with this really fancy motion?
0:08How do we run these cool plays? And it's less about start from ground zero.
0:08How do I build the best offense around Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkie, Omerian Hampton, whoever else, like it's become a lot more
0:08about the, the bells and the whistles and the design, because I, I don't know, like, I'm watching a lot of these
0:08plays and I'm just like, what's this for? Why, why is this happening?
0:08Is this the best thing that you can do around the personnel that you have?
0:08And it just feels forced. And like unnecessarily complicated.
0:08And I think that part of the reason there's so many mental errors is that the offense just seems so unnecessarily convoluted
0:08that it feels like players are, are using up a lot of their mental energy to remember all the different motions and
0:08formations and personnel groupings and when to sub on and when to sub off and where to line up.
0:08And it's like, then you are so mentally taxed that you forget to catch the ball or you forget to read the
0:08coverage or you forget to run through the right gap or you forget to hold on.
0:08Like, it's just too much. And I, and it's just disappointing because I feel like McDaniel, I feel like the takeaway is
0:08going to be the McDaniel always socked him was found out.
0:08And I don't think that was the case. I'll defend his Miami record to anyone, but I do think he has been
0:08far short of my expectations in Los Angeles. Yeah.
0:08Well said let's do Jeremiah love real quick. I, the way I want to put it to you is how many running
0:08backs did you take ahead of him? I will say on him, I'll give you a chance.
0:08Yeah. I want to give you a chance to think about that for a sec.
0:08He winds up with 21 carries. He had six carries on the opening drive.
0:08I think one was called back by a whole five official ones.
0:08Tyler Algier finishes this game with just two attempts.
0:08He does run more routes in the game. Algier kind of interesting to see him play a little bit of a passing
0:08down role, catches four balls, love catches five. This is one where I get to be a little bit of a victory
0:08lapper and you didn't venture that I kind of did for you, but you nailed the Mitchell thing.
0:08Um, but it last week after week two, I called it, I mean, not some like huge surprise, but called loves week
0:08two involvement, which had gone kind of the wrong direction, like pretty clearly called it noise because the Cardinals only ran 14
0:08plays in the second half of that game against Seattle.
0:08I think we talked about it. They have like an 11 minute drive to run out that game.
0:08Maybe we talked about this on the show. Even I'm not entirely sure, but I think I mentioned it in the new,
0:08uh, the newsletter as well, an input volatility that I, I really expected a bounce back game from love, a good week.
0:08Three, like very definitively was like, I'm expecting him to do well here.
0:08He ends up with a 22 point PPR game and it exceeded my expectations as part of my point as well.
0:08I was expecting him to play more and to rebound in week three and, and to be the lead back, but he
0:08started the game for the first time, or maybe they both started week two.
0:08I can't remember, but Algier was definitely the week one starter.
0:08I think they maybe did a two running back set in week two, or maybe it was Algier.
0:08Um, but week three love starts love gets five carries, official carry six carries with one callback by hold on that.
0:08Opening drive. He gets the, um, green zone touch for the touchdown at the one yard line.
0:08They did a play action sprint to the flat play where they, you know, they fake to him and then he just
0:08runs right to the flat, fast to the flat, gets the catch for the TD catches five balls on the early downs,
0:08even though his routes were not necessarily amazing. Looks super dynamic, um, runs for 90 yards, 19 more in the past game, 22 points, uh, by PPR.
0:08As I was saying, looked awesome. I'm sure you had them looking awesome.
0:08How many running backs would you take ahead of him?
0:08Well, I did my rest of season redraft rankings after week two and I put them RB 12, which I got some
0:08comments saying, how can you put this guy in the top 12 is in a timeshare.
0:08And so I'll, I'll do my own victory lap of saying like, I wasn't that worried about it.
0:08Um, now I didn't think it was going to happen like quite as dramatically.
0:08And as soon as week three, but I, I felt like this was an inevitable place we were going to get to.
0:08And it was just a matter of whether it was week three or week five or week seven, but now we're already here.
0:08Um, I would put him. Well, let's see. Uh, I'll name them for you.
0:08I'll put them. I'll put them. I'll put them.
0:08Nine is my answer. I would take Gibbs, B.
0:08John Taylor, CMC Walker, James Cook. I assume. Henry, Jenty cook, Henry.
0:08Henry. I'm taking love over. Henry. I'm taking love over.
0:08Cook. I'm taking love over cook. I think I'm taking love.
0:08Why wouldn't you take love over Jenty? I think Jeremiah love should be like RB sex.
0:08Okay. Is that obscene? Like, cause it's only going to go up.
0:08It's like, what are we, what are we worried about?
0:08This team threw 52 passes in week three, all this stuff about the Cardinals.
0:08They're looking at headlines. I mean, I talked about it a lot cause I was trying to make sense of it, but
0:08like I talked about the McBride thing a ton.
0:08The routes are so high. We have to regress the routes.
0:08We can this, that the other thing, you know, I got into Michael Wilson a ton.
0:08I was like, dude, Jacoby percent is QB again.
0:08We get to 17 target game. Why was last year such an outlier?
0:08Why was it not going to be something that could potentially repeat in certain ways?
0:08They threw 52 passes. Jacoby percent, your drop back conversion rate name for that, you know, that stat of like what we,
0:08what we like love to look at his drop back conversion rate is great.
0:08This guy drops back. He throws passes. And importantly, because he doesn't take sacks or scramble when it's an, you know, it's
0:08either a good play for a completion or it's an incompletion.
0:08That's, that's why this drop back conversion rates. That's so important.
0:08It stops the clock. Incompletions are great in modern football.
0:08They run more plays, dude. We want the clock to stop.
0:08The clock is always running. I watch all these games.
0:08Like half the games, I always say this, like, it feels like we only got three quarters of, of the sport.
0:08Like the teams didn't finish. Cause the clock is always running.
0:08It used to stop when the ball went out of bounds.
0:08It still runs when the ball is going on.
0:08Like I'm watching these games. There was a lot of punts early.
0:08And I'm like, how was it already late in the second?
0:08Now it's the third. It's the middle of the third.
0:08Nothing's happened. Stop the clock. Like somebody just stop running the clock, call a timeout or something.
0:08Like I, it's annoying as hell when you have players in a game and they're, they're not involved early.
0:08And the game just whittles away. That's how football feels.
0:08Now it's not the same as it felt 10, 15, 20 years ago.
0:08Some of that's the, there is a change in how they run the clock with some of the out of bounds stuff.
0:08The clock still stops on incompletions, which makes these drop back conversion rate guys.
0:08So crucial. If a team's willing to drop back a lot, they're either going to complete passes, which we'll take, even if the clock's running, we'll take it.
0:08We got points or it's an incompletion. The clock will stop and you can get to 52 passes when you're Jacoby percent,
0:08because you're in a situation where yeah, you, you also get the Niners being super efficient on the other side.
0:08This is a classic shootout game back and forth late.
0:08It was, it wasn't even that like high scoring through, let's see, it was 23 to six late in the third.
0:08And then the Cardinals score touchdown. And then they get the ball back and score another touchdown.
0:08Now it's 23, 20 and it's early fourth and you get Niners touchdown Cardinals touchdown Niners touchdown Cardinals kick a field goal.
0:08Cause they got to try an onside kick, but it ends up being a 36, 30 finish.
0:08And it was 23 to six. Like I said, late in the third, you get 30 total points in the fourth quarter
0:08alone, total shootout total fourth quarter back and forth.
0:08We see that. And that requires some efficiency. I mentioned 52 pass attempts.
0:08The Niners only ran 50 plays in this game and they still had more total yards than the Cardinals who ran 80
0:08something plays because Brock Purdy looks awesome. And the Cardinals offense looks awesome.
0:08And they have the 80 yard touchdown to Samuel early and they get some explosive plays to Kittle and they're getting all
0:08sorts of big plays and, and, and long touchdowns and they only need to run 50 plays to score 36 points.
0:08So you get, you know, that element of it helps it's, he's not going to throw 50 passes in a game, but
0:08the, the ability to get there to 50 pass attempts is like a Joe Flacco trade.
0:08It's a, it's a Jacoby preset trade. It's, it's this drop back conversion trade.
0:08It's the, it's getting past attempts out there and there can be incompletions.
0:08And he goes 38 for 52 in this game.
0:08He only income only, only 14 incompletions, but still, I mean, Brock Purdy, uh, had 12 incompletions.
0:08He had a much lower completion percentage, but he only threw 27 passes.
0:08Just my point is by raw numbers, even when you don't have a very good completion percentage at a low number, it's
0:08only 12 times that it stopped the clock. We're set through 52 passes.
0:08Even though we completed 38, stopped the clock 14 times.
0:08I just, I just want the clock to stop so we can get some NFL, you know, stats.
0:08So we can get some fantasy football stuff. The preset thing is very optimistic for the whole offense.
0:08Not necessarily because they're going to score 30 points in every single game.
0:08The Niners defense doesn't look great, but it is a situation where you get a lot of targets.
0:08You get a lot. I mentioned Algeria at four targets and love had five, that nine running back targets.
0:08Wilson had 17 and you still get 11 McBride.
0:08Ho hum 11, nine 75. It was a down game for him.
0:08I called it. I think I called it noise jokingly, or I was going to call it noise.
0:08And then I was like, this will just confuse people.
0:08But like, he should have had a 16 target game in this game.
0:08It's kind of absurd that he only had 11 targets out of 52 attempts.
0:08Marvin Harrison getting five targets for three catches for 40 yards, a spike week for him.
0:08Deep side from Jacob. So Joe over. But like, isn't, isn't that part of the love case?
0:08I guess this is what I'm getting at. I mean, I think that it's, it's definitely part of the love case.
0:08I would also say that like two weeks ago, they ran 50 plays because they aren't that good.
0:08And so I think that the way that the, the specific way in which they're not that good allows them to have really fun spikes.
0:08Um, like we saw in week three, uh, with the 86 play game and that we will see, well, I don't know
0:08if we'll literally see 86 again, but we will see several other games that mimic week three.
0:08I think that we will also see plenty of games that mimic week two, where, you know, they, the other team does
0:08not play as fast as the 49ers do in building their lead.
0:08And they, instead of the other team going up seven, nothing with a two play drive, the other team goes up seven,
0:08nothing with a grueling 16 play eight and a half minute drive.
0:08And there, the, like a lot of the Cardinals fantasy fun was like in the second half when they started down by 17.
0:09And then they were able to, um, sustain a bunch of drives in garbage time or not even garbage time.
0:09Cause they actually made a competitive, but like in comeback mode time and they can do that.
0:09But there will also be weeks where like they go three and out at the start of that drive down 17 points.
0:09And then they give the ball back and then they get it back down 24.
0:09And like, it's, it's less fun. So I, I just think that that, that specific like confluence of circumstances that we saw
0:09in week three is going to happen more for the Cardinals than it's going to happen for most teams in the NFL,
0:09but it doesn't mean that it's just going to happen every single week.
0:09And so I would say like, it's, it's going to be variant like this week.
0:09They play the giants for instance, who I think would in their perfect world, hand the ball off 47 times.
0:09And like, I wouldn't be surprised if the Cardinals, if the Cardinals have success in this game, they will be able to
0:09dictate the pace of the game and it's going to be maybe more fun.
0:09And we're going to see the Cardinals being fun and the giants being dragged to being fun with James dropping back a lot.
0:09But like, I can also see a world where Cardinals go three and out on their first couple drives.
0:09The giants have like 14 play drives that feature seven Scadaboo carries and five Najee Harris carries each.
0:09And the Cardinals are like forced into kind of a city, a crappy game environment.
0:09I think it'll just be variant. So I prefer the workhorses on the elite offenses like cook and Henry.
0:09I got to take role is not going to be quite as strong, but I mean, I'm very excited about Jeremiah love.
0:09It's like one of the frustrating aspects of podcasting with you is that like anytime there's like a young player that I
0:09want to be really excited about, like, I'm never going to be able to get as excited as you.
0:09And then I ended up saying negative things about Jeremiah love, which I don't want to do.
0:09You're not saying negative. That's really funny because I felt that same way.
0:09And I've expressed a sentiment on ceiling bananas. I felt the same way about Siegel over the years that he would be further than me on this list.
0:09So it's, it's sort of hilarious. But no, Derek Henry last week is the last week.
0:09I won't rank him as a weekly RB one for the rest of his twenties.
0:09Oh, I love that. Derek Henry is averaging 25 PPR points per game with like, you know, five catches for 38 yards.
0:09It doesn't even matter that it's PPR scoring. If it's non PPR, you're feeling obviously much better.
0:09Even it's, I there's listeners that are annoyed that I pretended like I could rank.
0:09Like it's, it's absurd to say that I would rank love ahead of Derek Henry.
0:09That's, that's silly. Derek Henry is belongs ahead of love.
0:09So I think at best RB seven. And I think you can make the case for, for him being ahead of both
0:09gente and cook cook is only at 17.4 points per game right now, four catches on eight targets for 16 yards.
0:09That's not what we were promised. That's not what people were talking about.
0:09Right? Like, and when I say we were promised, I'm kind of saying it facetiously.
0:09I was not in on cook. I'm being a little bit rude, but like a lot of people were like, James cooks
0:09receiving is going to take the league by storm.
0:09It's not happening. Yeah. 16 receiving yards. Obviously though, to your point, he's a workhorse on a good offense and he runs
0:09for a massive number of yards on the ground.
0:09And, and you know, it was probably going to score more touchdowns going forward.
0:09He's a workhorse runner. He's very efficient, very good.
0:09And that may still keep him ahead of love.
0:09Even if love ends up catching more passes or cooks receiving may get better.
0:09I don't, I don't expect this the rest of the year, five receiving yards per game, but, um, and then Gentis rushing
0:09looks a little bit, you know, I don't, I don't know.
0:09It was a little bit concerning in week three, I guess, but yeah, yeah.
0:09Fair enough. And the ankle's a concern, like he's limping on and off the field, but maybe you just better go with the healthier back.
0:09Um, but loves loves in the tier with cook and Genti behind that top six for sure.
0:09Um, I, I have a lot of tier ahead of Genti now in my dynasty rankings, which like, that was a big
0:09conversation point we had on dynasty points earlier this week was who's the new dynasty RB three, um, uh, like love versus Genti.
0:09And that's where I, I may be, but yeah, I would have them in the same tier for who's your RB 10,
0:09but I think like, is there anybody even in that tier?
0:09Yeah. Like I'm saying like, is there any, it would be, you're kind of saying really, it would be really tough.
0:09So I'm, let me pull, let me pull it up because I had, cause I had, so what I had after week
0:09two is I had Holland serving, but both, but like hall just suffered an injury.
0:09And then Irving, um, neither of us has said chase, a worse quarterback.
0:09No, it would be chase Brown. Yeah. Chase Brown, chase Brown.
0:09I had at nine, um, in this post week two, and I would move love ahead of him.
0:09So he would be my 10, but after him, I think I would say like Javante or six one.
0:09Yeah. The way my, the way my rest of, yeah.
0:09So the way my list went post week two was I had Brown at nine.
0:09Then I had hall. Then I had Irving. Then I had love.
0:09Like obviously hall got hurt. Irving lost his quarterback.
0:09Then I had eight Chan. He just got hurt.
0:09So Javante be the next guy. I already had him.
0:09I had a Barkley. Um, so yeah, it would be, I think it'd be Javante.
0:09Like, I don't know. Like then you get into like, yeah, Barkley, Kyron, Chuba Hubbard.
0:09I mean, I think, I think Tudan might be a top 12 running back.
0:09I think he's going to be a top 10.
0:09I think he's going to be a top 10.
0:09He's up in that range too. Yeah. Those are all the names I was thinking too, but I was trying to drive
0:09home is I don't think we're far off. You said RB nine and I was, I was trying to sort of make
0:09the point for you without making the point for you.
0:09But like, I think you would probably say there's sort of a tier break after RB nine or RB 10 ish.
0:09Maybe. I include Brown in that tier. Still, it's been a tough start for him, but I'd still include him in that tier.
0:09But after Brown, I would, I would put a big tier break for sure.
0:09And I already had a big tier break after Brown.
0:09So I would just move love up into that next tier, slot him ahead of Brown.
0:09And then, then the big tier break. Yeah. So, and, and that, and that counts what love has done, but it also
0:09is the hope for both of us. And the part of the reason I was so optimistic originally in saying, you know,
0:09he could go as high as six is he looked awesome.
0:09And the offense is fine. I was talking about the offense being fun.
0:09I expect a lot more out of him the rest of the way than we've even seen to this point.
0:09Like I expect him to continue to be really good and like on a talent basis, potentially look like one of the three or five best running backs.
0:09And like, like look what B. John Robinson's able to do in a really poor office in Atlanta.
0:09Cause he's that good. I mean, like there are running backs that do matter.
0:09And I'm not saying for sure. Jeremiah loves going to like, like for a lot of people, it's too early to say that kind of thing.
0:09I'm not saying for sure it's going to happen.
0:09And I could be too early in saying it.
0:09He looks that way. He looks the part. Like you mentioned, Gentry looks like the ankle still bugging him.
0:09Love's preseason injury does not appear to be bothering him.
0:09No, no, not at all. Um, yeah, they, with love, like he, I mean, I think that they, they managed it way better.
0:09Right. I mean, the ankle stuff. I mean, first of all, his injury happened earlier.
0:09It happened a week and a half earlier. And then they didn't thrust him into immediate workhorse role.
0:09They, they used him in a timeshare for two weeks and now he looks completely healthy and he's owning the backfield.
0:09Whereas Gentry's like going off the sideline to get his ankle taped halfway through the game.
0:09I, I, he looked so amazing in week one, but now I'm like, man, I just wish they just sat him for a couple of weeks, you know?
0:09And then it's like, let the thing fully heal instead of kind of re aggravating it now two weeks in a row.
0:09But anyways, I, I agree. Like love, we haven't seen the huge explosive play yet.
0:09I don't think that that's anything to do with how he's looked.
0:09He looks like he's just waiting for that. And I think one of these weeks we're going to get like the 50
0:09yard house call or, or one of these viral plays and it's going to be like, Oh man, this guy's Adrian Peterson.
0:09You know, they, they put everyone on notice in week three and the degree to which they, they did that.
0:09Algier still ran more routes and people are going to say, you know, that kind of thing.
0:09I mean, it's only a matter of time before love runs more routes than Algier as well.
0:09Like it's like, it's like, I'm sure Algier is going to maintain a role, but the way that week three is usage
0:09when as well, it's not a guarantee to stick.
0:09It was, it was, Hey, we want to use love a lot more.
0:09And, and look, it may backslide a little bit.
0:09They may decide after this week, look, we want to get Algier more than two carries.
0:09We want to get them at least five or seven or whatever.
0:09And to your point, they're going to have some games with not a lot of plays.
0:09And so love has 26 touches in this game.
0:09There's going to be some games where he has, you know, whatever 15 and some of those things that happened.
0:09They happened to good backs. They happen to workhorse backs.
0:09They've been happening to like chase Brown's a guy we've been talking about.
0:09I, um, I think he's had a couple of games where the touches have been a little bit lower.
0:09Yeah. It looks like week three at 15 touches.
0:09And he's like, it's not like a bad thing.
0:0913 carries, two targets. Uh, it's just the way that it worked out for him that week.
0:09Um, love will have some of those games, but I do just think that, you know, week three was sort of like
0:09them just dipping their toe in the water of like, look, yeah, I mean, loves love.
0:09We've done enough of the time share of the split without gear, like loves the guy that we want to feature our offense around.
0:09Uh, that's why we drafted him top five. Like, that's how we feel about the guy.
0:09Like we're, yeah, we're, we liked Alger too, but we're very optimistic about love.
0:09We see the rookie roles expand, you know, throughout rookie seasons.
0:09It's already reached this point in week three. That means that, yeah, I mean, it means the potential for like the B.
0:09John Robinson type like usage or the Jameer Gibbs type usage, like later in the season, five, six, seven, eight weeks from now.
0:09Like he's just getting every single play. Cause they're like, this is how we win.
0:09We give our best player the ball every single play.
0:09Like that's, that's what happens. You just decide that you need to get that.
0:09It's not anything against Algier. It's just like, this is the best player on our offense.
0:09And we want to give him the ball every, which is kind of absurd and hilarious to say, cause Trey McBride's also
0:09on this team and Trey McBride's like, right. Siegel's been taking to calling him the best player in football and a lot
0:09of his work, which I mean, you know, I love that, that, that description as well.
0:09This team is good. Like Marvin Harrison is a good, you know, ancillary piece.
0:09Like, I, what are you going to do with, like, I don't, I don't mind.
0:09I don't mind him being in the position he's in.
0:09I love that though. That's great. Give him 88.
0:09Uh, let's go to the bad. Yeah. Unretired 88.
0:09Reggie Wayne can be his wide receiver coach. Come on.
0:09And then Marvin Harrison jr. And the Marvin Harrison Jersey.
0:09That's hilarious. Yeah. yeah. I mean, sure. We'll fix it.
0:09They already paid Alec Pierce way too much money to justify that.
0:09Uh, wide receiver position. We wanted to talk a little bit about you had that's in the notes.
0:09Yeah. Let's go. Let's go warp speed here. Yeah.
0:09That's going to happen. Well, and I want to talk about the tight end.
0:09So we really should do it quick. You have burden stock up.
0:09You said we can talk about the other bears too.
0:09I mean, let's just rope in the tight ends.
0:09Cause you have Loveland in there. We already talked about Deke anyway.
0:09So let's just talk about the bears here with burden.
0:09And with Loveland. I want to ask you a specific question about the tight end.
0:09So maybe we'll go there and we can talk about the bears.
0:09Sure. But Loveland's tough start. Your guy, Max Toscano does an awesome, uh, sub stack.
0:09Uh, remember the tight ends wrote a piece about how good, love Lynn was.
0:09I think after week one without even catching the ball.
0:09Cause of how many different things he could do.
0:09I think it's a fascinating, I didn't, I didn't get a chance to read.
0:09I just, I saw the headline and everything. So I, I can't give like great details, but I mean, definitely check out Max's work.
0:09I think it's a fascinating, um, thing as I was working through stealing signals in week three, you and I always joke
0:09about the, the tight end route stuff. And so, I mean, I'm going to have jokingly have seriously give you this take
0:09that you're going to have real data behind, but I always, I, and you're going to have a much better read on.
0:09I always push, like, I don't push back on the tight end route stuff as much as I, I wonder how much it matters for fantasy football.
0:09And one of the big things that we've talked about a lot is like some of these guys that are tweeners, you
0:09called Eli Stowers a twink last week. I love people got to kind of kick out of it.
0:09Um, this was a concern with Sadiq. Sadiq has a massive game, even though he only runs 57% of the routes.
0:09This has been the concern with Juwan Johnson. Juwan Johnson has another great game, even though they are involving Noah Fant and stuff.
0:09This has been the concern with a Rondae Gadsden, who winds up playing a lot.
0:09He has an underwhelming game. You have him on the show sheet.
0:09Um, Harold Fannin been a concern. And I know you, I we've talked about him.
0:09You think he can block enough that it doesn't matter, but yet Harold Fannin, you know, how did rough week one role
0:09was part of this was like, yeah, can they keep him on the field?
0:09Winds up having a, it was one of the best tight ends in week three as multi-tight end, uh, touchdown game.
0:09One of the things that's happening with some of these multi Brock Bowers, Brock Bowers supposed to be a limited tight end
0:09in some ways, just played wide receiver. So as far as fantasy is concerned, he just is a wide receiver.
0:09Brock Bowers is like completely separate for this discussion.
0:09Like he's just so good. So I knew you were going to have some nuance to this, but my point, what my
0:09point would be that the way I would frame it in my head, as far as it work matters for fantasy is
0:09that these guys are not limited when they're good enough receivers.
0:09And I know that you've agreed with this too, but also as we've moved to more multi-tight end packages and teams want
0:09to just get tight ends on the field. They don't mind playing these guys like as receivers, which is what we want.
0:09And then the really good ones that can do everything like Loveland are actually getting screwed over.
0:09They're getting held into block a ton. And the scheme is actually working against the fantasy production because they want to use his strengths as a blocker.
0:09And in other ways, it's what happened to George Kittle a ton throughout his prime of his career is we didn't run enough routes.
0:09It's happening less to Kittle now at this point, but Bowers, they find a way to just feature him as a wide receiver.
0:09You can say he's different from this conversation. I would argue he's not, I would argue he's a tight end that last year was limited in some ways.
0:09In these regards, he got under a coach that was like, I'm going to find a way to just utilize his skills as a receiver.
0:09And now we can say, because he's being used as a receiver, he's separate, but that's like a descriptive response.
0:09The P the predictive point was, even though he is listed as a tight end and people have said, he's limited as
0:09a blocker and that can cause problems. I've always argued like they will find answers.
0:09Well, now the answers they found found are going to put them in a different category.
0:09But my point on like Sadiq Fannin, Juwan Johnson, Bowers and Juwan Johnson, you get the Noah Fant thing, right?
0:09And so because they want to just jam all these tight ends in the field, Fant's playing and he's doing some blocking
0:09early stuff and he catches two touchdowns. With Bowers, it's a Michael Mayer point.
0:09They're putting multiple tight ends on the field, but like they're using mayor as the, the blocker now.
0:09With, sorry, I did the Juwan Johnson thing with Sadiq.
0:09They were using Jeremy record a lot and he caught like five balls in this game too.
0:09And he looked legitimately interesting, but Sadiq gets freed up by the multi tight end set element that is like, yeah, we
0:09want to put multiple tight ends on the field and see what personnel packages the defenses do.
0:09But also then the guy who can't block, we'll just move off of tight end stuff into more, you know, fantasy friendly stuff.
0:09I feel like you wouldn't call all these guys twinks, but I was sitting here watching and I was like, a lot
0:09of the guys that seem to be this twink category that, that you use last week are the ones that are scoring
0:09all the fantasy points at tight end in week three.
0:09And Colson Loveland, who I was actually really into this draft season in part, because he does everything so well.
0:09And in part, because of some of these routes conversations that we've had, and it's like, this guy's going to stay on the field.
0:09He's a 22 year old star. They've used him a bunch late last year.
0:09I got to be optimistic about him. There's no way he's going to come off the field.
0:09All this type of stuff that we talk about with tight ends works in his favor.
0:09It's working against his fantasy production. Is it not?
0:09So I definitely think it is with Loveland. I want to address the Bowers thing first.
0:09Cause I, I, I don't think it's descriptive because like I almost read like the data mayor got extended.
0:09This was what I put out a tweet thread that said, I'm seeing a lot of people talk about the rise of
0:0912 personnel or say, that's a lot of money for a backup tight end.
0:09In my opinion, both of those missed the point entirely.
0:09Bowers is literally one of one as a tight end in air quotes, who's a high level primary pass catcher and who can't block inline regularly.
0:09There is no other tight end that fits both of those descriptions.
0:09Mayers isn't a backup tight end and playing mayor and Bowers is not 12 personnel.
0:09For instance, compare Bowers and mayor to Loveland and Komet playing base 12 offense with Loveland and Komet would be an actual choice.
0:10You could be a base 11 team with Loveland in line and three receivers.
0:10If you prefer, that's not an actual option with Bowers.
0:10It's better to think of Bowers as an elite wide receiver provides additional versatility.
0:10If you ask him to block in line as a second tight end, rather than a head end, you could split up
0:10wide 12 personnel is a meaningless categorization without, but anyway, I went on, but my point is that Bowers is like, Bowers is literally Drake London.
0:10Yeah. He's Pukinokua actually in this offense is the way that I wrote it up.
0:10Like, I think he's the LA version. Like people were like, is he going to be, is he going to be Clint Kubiasa JSN?
0:10It's more Pukinokua. It's more of this big physical guy that actually does motion in, can, can block a little bit off
0:10like a wide receiver coming into block. But sorry, I wasn't trying to say you didn't, cause I think you're great at this stuff.
0:10I want to be clear. Like I, it does not shock me at all that you had that.
0:10I think we talked about, I was, it's unfair to, to reference something that Max may have written about when he's not here to defend himself.
0:10Cause he would probably have great context too. I think we've talked about back to Bowers rookie year.
0:10Some of this stuff, you and I have had this conversation over the course of years and, and Max, I think has
0:10some concerns about Bowers sticking from that. And you didn't share those concerns from the rookie.
0:10I remember talking to you and you were like, I don't really share those concerns because I see Bowers being a one-of-one receiver.
0:10Like you just said. Yeah. But my point was that there are people that, about Bowers.
0:10Okay. But there are people that look at, so Bowers maybe as a separate one.
0:10I thought there was people that had shared that about Bowers, but there are people that look at tight ends in this
0:10way that I think sometimes miss the fantasy actionability of it.
0:10It doesn't mean their point about how good the tight end is for the real team isn't wrong, isn't correct, but the
0:10fantasy like, or, or maybe they're not missing that because maybe they're not doing fantasy analysis.
0:10I don't think Max explicitly does. He's trying to teach people about the 10 end position and he's doing a great job.
0:10I think there's ways that people translate that to fantasy inaccurately.
0:10And so that's where, this is the nuance of mine and yours discussion on this that has gone on for multiple years
0:10now before we had the long view, but just to like bring the listeners in, I want to let you respond to
0:10what I said, but I just wanted to add that context.
0:10I was not trying to say that you didn't predict the Bowers thing.
0:10No, that's, that's totally fair. I just, I wanted to emphasize that because I think Bowers, the difference to me between Bowers
0:10and all of the rest of these move tight ends is that like, like, I think Brock Bowers is not just good
0:10enough to be like justifiable to play ahead of a slot receiver, but he is like, he's good enough to be the
0:10best pass catcher on a very effective NFL passing offense.
0:10And I don't think that the only other tight end that I would put in that category is maybe Trey McBride, but McBride brings more as a blocker.
0:10Like there's, there's no one else who is both like unable to block well enough to play consistently in line, but also
0:10just good enough to just be the number one wide receiver on like any NFL team.
0:10And Bowers is so unique in that regard that I, I mean, he was playing, he barely lined up even at tight end.
0:10He was barely even attached to the formation this week.
0:10Now I, I will concede that Chip Kelly showed an incredible lack of imagination last year and used him at times.
0:10Frustratingly where he didn't use him this way. And that was extremely tilting, but I'm, I'm very glad that Clint Kubiak has,
0:10I think correctly assessed that no Bowers is just wide receiver one and mayor is tight end one.
0:10Like that, that's how they're, they're being used. Anyways, I wonder about the other guy.
0:10Which is sick. Week three was awesome. Like watching Brock Bowers, like he had a catch on each of their first six possessions.
0:10He had three catches on the first possession. The entire offense was built.
0:10He caught his TD even after this point, the entire, it wasn't just like the passing game or he's a focal point.
0:10The entire offense was built around Brock Bowers being wide receiver one.
0:10Like you said, the first, first drive, he catches an out, uh, like a short out, quick out on the first play.
0:10And then he catches like an intermediate in breaking route.
0:10And then he ends up catching a curl later in the drive.
0:10He caught multiple of these in breakers that are like off play action.
0:10Sometimes the different things that are very similar to the Puka in break, like intermediate in breaking routes that everyone talks about with Puka.
0:10I remember talking to Robert Mays a few years ago when I was really optimistic about Kyle pits and Zach Robinson going there.
0:10And one of the things he and I were, were excited, like shared enthusiasm on was that maybe Kyle pits would get
0:10to you be used in this, uh, Puka in a cool way after Robinson came from LA on these intermediate in breakers.
0:10We didn't get that from Kyle pits under Zach Robinson to the, to that degree.
0:10We did get that 100% under Clint Kubiak for Brock Bowers this week.
0:10We also got like, there was a third down in the second half where they lined him up one-on-one on the, on
0:10the perimeter and ran just a go route against a cornerback, um, Kool-Aid McKinstry and threw a back shoulder and just let Brock Bowers go winning one-on-one.
0:10Like he's a wide receiver, like a vertical who catches a 20 yard pass, comes back to the ball, goes to the
0:10ground to make the play shows that all the receiving skills that you could possibly need against a corner in one-on-one on the boundary.
0:10Like you're basically like Mike Evans at that point.
0:10Like, yeah, he's not quite as fast as some of the like fastest receivers, but there's no reason he can't do Mike Evans stuff on the perimeter.
0:10Or again, Puka isn't like the, he's obviously incredibly athletic, but isn't like the fastest, you know, wide receiver in the world.
0:10So it's, it's just like, it's, he's playing wide receiver to your point.
0:10He's playing a big wide receiver position. The, the, the varied usage on powers was like one of the biggest storylines of week three.
0:10It was so, so fun. Sorry, I've cut you off again.
0:10I just, you got me excited. I mean, just, just to emphasize the power stuff.
0:10I mean, cause you can't emphasize it enough. It was so cool.
0:10He had, he had a 43% slot rate. He had a 34% inline rate.
0:10So that's, that's 75% of his snaps. He was slot or sorry.
0:10I misspoke 43% slot rate, 34% wide rate, a 20% inline rate.
0:10So 80% of his snaps, he, and then he had the rest were in the backfield.
0:10So like 75% of his snaps, he's playing basically the same role that like Amon raw plays or Puka plays like there,
0:10or London, like sometimes they're in the slot. Sometimes they're out wide, but like, he's a move flanker.
0:10And then like occasionally they attach him to the formation as like a, as a changeup basically.
0:10And Michael Mayer played 61 of 70 snaps. Like that's as many snaps as any starting tight end in the NFL plays.
0:10Basically like they, their roles were like, like, obviously their roles impact one another in the sense of when you add an
0:10elite talent, there's less targets for Michael Mayer, but like Brock Bowers impacts Michael Mayer's target share the way Amon raw impacts
0:10Sam Laporta's target share, but like he doesn't impact it the way that like Michael Mayer is a backup tight end now.
0:10Anyways, the Loveland point. Yeah, I think I wrote about this this week.
0:10I would maybe like put the cause and effect slightly differently in terms of the, like the blocking elements.
0:10But I think a huge thing is just the, the bears clearly have like other guys that they can get involved, right?
0:10Luther Burden is leading them in first three targets by, by a wide margin.
0:10They haven't really been using Rome that much, but they theoretically can.
0:10And for whatever reason, they're really enjoying using Khalif Raymond and it's working.
0:10So I can't even say that it's like that.
0:10Like, it's not like a terrible thing that they're doing.
0:10It's really frustrating thing, but it's working for them.
0:10And so like Loveland snaps have been, yeah, completely fine.
0:10But you're right. That his route rates been down for two straight weeks.
0:10And I thought that it was very explainable in week two, based on the Florida stuff.
0:10If you like really want to squint, maybe you can say like, Oh, you know, backup quarterback, they're trying to increase the protection week three, whatever.
0:10I guess like, even if there are excuses for it and if it rebounds in other weeks, it's, it's, it's clear that
0:10because he has a level of blocking skill and because they have other guys in the offense, they are quite okay with
0:10like, like minimizing his receiving role and just running the, the receiver stuff through other people versus building everything around him.
0:10And I think it's something that I like really missed in trying to assess him and Rome and burden like relative to
0:10each other in a fairly positionally agnostic way. Um, in that, like there is no world in which they are going to
0:10keep Luther burden or Roma duns a into block, but they can choose to do that with Colson Loveland.
0:10And then that hurts his route rate, even in plays that he's on the field for like his past block rate was bizarrely high the last two weeks.
0:10It's not really something that they did with the porta, which is why I wasn't that worried about it.
0:10But then part of it is that I also thought that they would be running base 12 and they haven't been really
0:10like Cole Komet's played, but he's played on some rundowns at Brock, um, at Colson Loveland's expense.
0:10They've played some 12 personnel, but they've played a lot of 11 and Kelly Freeman's been playing a ton.
0:10And that was something I really did not see coming, but I think there's definitely something to your point of like the
0:10tight ends that can be used more versately teams are using them more versately.
0:10And that has like positives and negatives for fantasy.
0:10I mean, the positives are you're more likely to be like the, the play that Loveland should have scored a touchdown on,
0:10um, is like, I would say the, the upside case of being that Y tight end where you're going to get those
0:10chances to do some of the block and release play action stuff near the goal line, because you're going to be on the field in those situations.
0:10And a lot of the past catching only tight ends aren't on the field in those situations.
0:10Um, but the downside is like, there was several plays that I was watching where it's like, Oh, Loveland's is not even going to get a target.
0:10Like he's either held into block or he's running a route, but he's like blocking and releasing.
0:10And that's why maybe that's why like his PFF, his route rate is a lot higher than his fantasy points route rate,
0:10because there were numerous plays where he like did eventually get out into a route, but he wasn't really doing anything.
0:10Uh, I didn't notice that gap, but I was just going to add the context that his route rate has been fought.
0:10Like in week one, at least he had the routes, but like it's, it's cratered.
0:10That's why I'm really concerned about some. Yeah. It's cratered.
0:10And it's, and it's not like his snap rate is really, it's the past block rate is really spiked.
0:10It's, it's spiked. Um, yeah, two straight weeks and the one not being the floor is weak.
0:10Like it's, I don't think it's going to stay that low, but I, I think it will clearly, clearly it's, they're very
0:10willing to make, to not clearly very willing to do this and they don't feel need to build the passing game around him.
0:10Um, and it's, it's, it's super concerning. I like, I would say craft is dealing with some of the same stuff too,
0:10in green Bay where they're having online issues and, um, and they're, they're building the past game more to the wide receivers and, and less around him.
0:10And there was like the quote of the, they lost to O lineman in that New York jets game.
0:10There was a quote where they, they had, they said they had a sideline conversation over whether they should just get Tucker
0:10craft to play a right tackle in that game.
0:10Um, instead of calling up whatever the third string offensive lineman was, it was like, yeah, that's, that's the downside of, I
0:10guess, having too good of blocking ability. I think that the, like the, like the, the move tight ends, like, I mean,
0:10how I've typically described it as like, it, I don't think it's like necessarily like a, I think it's too simplistic to
0:10say that it's good or it's bad. Like, I just think it adds volatility in both directions.
0:10Like you get the upside of it. I mean, I, I would still say like Jawan, for instance, like he's been super productive.
0:10I would say he's kind of a sell high.
0:10Like he's running like 60% of the road. So it's not what his role was last year.
0:10And it's hurting his target shares target share for the year is like 14%.
0:10I mean, he's, he's still been productive. He scored three touchdowns.
0:10He had the two this week, but like, I don't, I'm really grateful for the Jawan Johnson points as a person who
0:10draft a lot of them in best ball. I don't know.
0:10Like, do you think he's going to be a top like five to 10 tight end rest of season on a 14% target share?
0:10Like with, with Jordan Tyson coming back? Like I, I mostly don't.
0:10It's not like we've seen his targets per out run massively spike as his snaps have been reduced.
0:10So I, I think it is a concern. For Fannin, like my argument was that it wasn't really a concern this year
0:10because they have no other option at tight end.
0:10I maintain that it's like a long-term risk factor.
0:10And I guess it's just, it's, to me, it's like kind of just an asterisk.
0:10It's like, you, you never really know exactly how it's going to manifest because I think it just adds volatility to the profile.
0:10So like, sometimes it can be nice that every time they run on a pass play, they're getting out in a route,
0:10but I, it also, you do lose routes. Like, you know, like, like, Dalton Kincaid's had a great season this year.
0:10He's also had previous seasons that have been completely derailed by a lack of route participation.
0:10And I would still argue that this year, you'd prefer him run 85% of the routes instead of 70% of the routes, right?
0:10I mean, 70 is going to be more than good enough.
0:10But, like, if Dalton Kincaid has a really great season this year, and he's the one that goes around three next year,
0:10like that, that's a potential risk factor I think that would be relevant to him.
0:10So, I, I don't know. I think you're, I think it's a give and take.
0:10Like, what you're, what you're gaining in running a route, like a real route more often in pass plays, you are still
0:10giving back, I think, in not being out there for other pass plays.
0:10But, the end result probably means that like, a lot of these guys are winding up in the 70 range.
0:10Um, versus like the 85 to 90 range. And I mean, then there's like a floor where, you know, like Eli Stowers is just not playing.
0:10And that's not, I'm not saying that's going to happen for his whole career.
0:10So, I can't wait till he follows this trend and has a two TD game.
0:10And then you have to respond to that in a few weeks.
0:10Yeah. I mean, I, I, I also just don't know if he's that good as a receiver, but, um, maybe he's not,
0:10uh, but anyways, I mean, I guess like every one of these guys, I just think, it's, it's hard to map trends onto them.
0:10Like, I also think Sadiq, one of the things I really dislike about a lot of the tight end blocking conversation is
0:10that it seems like it divides every tight end into guys who can block and guys who can't.
0:10And I don't think that that's remotely fair. I think that there's like, obviously this blocking ability, like any other ability is there's gradients to it.
0:10And so like someone, there's people who are very bad at it and people who are great at it.
0:10And there's several gradients in the middle. And like, like Sadiq is an example of a guy who I think there are
0:10blocking limitations on because he's not that big, but he's also super physical and he blocks really, really hard.
0:10And like, I felt like they're kind of two paths to him succeeding coming out of college, which is one, like he
0:10is such a dynamic athletic players receiver that he's able to just smash in a flex tight end role, which is what he's doing so far.
0:10I also think it's possible that he becomes a guy who plays 95% of the snaps over time, but he came in
0:10super young and he has the child. That wouldn't surprise me at all.
0:10So anyway, I think it's really nuanced. And I think every one of these plans you have to look at in the
0:10context of their offense and like, who else can your team throw to?
0:10And like, anyway, that's been my whole point though, because when we've talked about it, a lot of the times you've been,
0:10I mean, I don't want to make this like a, an hour long conversation because we want to have a lot more
0:10stuff to go into, but I felt like when we've talked about it and we're already at three hours, it's hilarious.
0:10Like even last week when you were doing the classification thing, that the implication of the classification thing of like these three
0:10classifications is like, there isn't that much nuance. And I'm not saying that you have like shied away from the nuance, but
0:10at times when we've talked about certain guys, like maybe you, or maybe I've heard this from other places from people who use similar, arguments.
0:10But part of the reason I push back on this line of thinking is it's like an end all be all point.
0:10It's like, this guy's just not going to be on the field enough, or he's not going to hit enough route rate.
0:10Like he's not going to hit a threshold of routes.
0:10He's got to hit at least this many routes.
0:10It's got to be at least 80% routes. If it's, if it's not 70% routes, if it's not this, it can't be good enough.
0:10And I, the point that I feel like I've been making to you for three years, when we've had these conversations is
0:10there are nuances to each of the individual cases.
0:10I'm always saying that like, don't misapply the aggregate to the specific on, not on this point specifically, but that's like one of my broad points.
0:10I feel like that's the position I've always been in.
0:10And that's part of when I'm bringing this up to you here.
0:10And in your, when I'm hearing your response, I'm like, that's what I've been saying is that, that there are a lot of ways to get there.
0:10And this is not that relevant of a point because there's a lot of alter the Juwan Johnson thing.
0:10You mentioned market share. Like I would push back on that as a minor point when Tyler Shuck literally is leading the league in pass attempts.
0:10Like it's the only bad stat for Juwan Johnson right now.
0:10Like he still has 19 targets. It's probably one of the top like tight end raw target number.
0:10Chris Alave is leading the NFL in targets. Like, so you're, you're looking at a stat where you have, uh, uh, the
0:10number one passing attempt team and a very dominant number one.
0:10Like, yeah, the ancillary pieces don't have massive target shares.
0:10That's part of it. But Juwan Johnson's looked awesome.
0:10He's been a key part of their passing game.
0:11He's second on the team in receiving yards. The case I kept making was he was third in the NFL in receiving yards last year.
0:11And people are acting like he can't sort of back that up.
0:11And I don't know that you were arguing against this one specifically.
0:11Again, I'm, I'm putting stuff on you. That is not the, the nuance that you put into the conversation.
0:11So I want to be clear, but Juwan Johnson is like, he's tight end two right now.
0:11He's been very productive. He's second on the team in receiving by a yard over Valey.
0:11Valey has been very involved, uh, as well. But Juwan Johnson has been very good because of his receiving skills.
0:11He's also been like, he's forced a lot of missed tackles.
0:11I haven't even looked at his stat, but just by watching the games, he's been really good after the catch.
0:11Cause he's a good player. And that was like a big part of my point was like good players that get yards, they get yards.
0:11And like, that's, that's the thing that we've done with the long view stuff as, as it relates to like college profiles
0:11at, at receiver and tight end, but like guys that produce and running back guys that produce, they produce.
0:11Like we, we like to see production in college and then it tends to translate to the NFL.
0:11We want to bet on players that are productive.
0:11And my whole point with Juwan Johnson, even though he's a 30 year old was that even though he was, he has
0:11a bunch of limitations, he's, he's one of the best examples of this.
0:11Cause he's a literal former wide receiver, you know, converted tight end that early in his career was like still learning the
0:11position developed into it later in his career, had a great year last year.
0:11And then they went and got other tight ends.
0:11And I felt like a lot of the discussion for Juwan Johnson, all off season, people were saying he's not going to
0:11play enough because of this, this is this line of thinking was clear to me.
0:11And the fact that Juwan Johnson was a top 10 tight end last year, who was literally third, literally third in receiving
0:11yardage at the position last year behind only training, Brian and the Kyle pits.
0:11He wasn't that far behind cop pits. He had almost 900 yards.
0:11He had over a hundred targets and people were drafting him tight end 18 or something.
0:11He had only three touchdowns was still tight and eight last year were three touchdowns and was like 10 points behind tight end three.
0:11I'm looking at it right now. And now he's throwing some touchdowns.
0:11And I mean, I'm just, I'm pointing out the, the kind of hilarity and the fact that he only had three TDS all of last year.
0:11And that's why people were like missing a lot of the production.
0:11And now one of your points was like, I'm not saying that you're wrong and pointing out that he scored a lot
0:11of touchdowns and it's going to regress. But one of the funny things is like, now he scored too many touchdowns.
0:11And so that like that production doesn't count. I spent all off season being like, his production was better than even as
0:11finish, but his finish was tight end eight and he's going tight in 18.
0:11And the only explanation for it was they brought in Fant and Delp and they're not going to play him.
0:11They're going to play those guys. And I mean, is that not like the biggest, like, I don't know.
0:11I mean, John Johnson is literally my most drafted player, like quite literally number one.
0:11So I'm, I was in on Jawan this year, but I'm, I'm less in.
0:11Well, then I'm not asking you to defend that, but, but, but the price, the market's price on Jawan Johnson now than
0:11I was at the start of the season, despite all of the production, because he's, he's been third on the team and target share behind Valey.
0:11And by three, by three targets coming back. Okay.
0:11Tyson's coming back. I'll, I'll accept that. Like, I mean, to me, theory of the case was he is going to be
0:11the clear number two player behind Chris Alave until Tyson comes back.
0:11And that hasn't really been the case. Everyone on the saints has been blowing up, but they're not going to average 43 pass attempts per game.
0:11He's been way better than Devon Valey. Like, I don't want to do a watch the games point, but like he's, he's
0:11been really, he's got a lower eight out. He's been really good with the ball in his hands.
0:11Valey's made some really good plays. He made an awesome diving catch in week one, but he's also had some, he's left
0:11some efficiency on the table, but yes, I agree with you that Valey has been like the whole offense is blowing up.
0:11The reason I would say that, like the, how point is I want access to the saints right now.
0:11I feel like they're a rocket ship and a really good fantasy offense.
0:11We were talking about this when we're talking about the running backs.
0:11And I was like, I gave the whole point about Kellen Moore.
0:11It's very similar to the point. You got me on with the chargers a little bit ago where I wasn't really thinking
0:11about how much better or how much worse the chargers offense have gotten.
0:11I would ask you, are you thinking about how much better the saints offense looks after three games than you were thinking coming into the year?
0:11Cause I still think you're doing the thing. You're, you're overstating the role with like what his limitations are like, look at what's in front of you.
0:11Look at all the production. He's the tight end too.
0:11He's a tight end too. How could you not be higher on him after three games?
0:11I don't think that the saints are going to be as great rest of season as they've been through three weeks.
0:11I mean, I agree with that. They're obviously not going to be, but he's like, he's got to regress.
0:11Like, well, this is a question not of whether they're going to regress.
0:11It's of how much is it? Like, like I, it's not as though, but this regression is, is like, it's, it's not
0:11like a tree McBride thing where his targets per route run was lower because he ran a gazillion more routes.
0:11And so you would expect that as the routes compress, the per route goes up.
0:11Like I, this is, he, he's third in the target pecking order.
0:11And the main reason he's third in the target pecking order, he is.
0:11Vele has 22 targets. Juwan has 19. Well, let me, let me finish this.
0:11They both have 15 catches. Juwan has a catch percentage.
0:11That's 10 percentage points higher. He does have a lower a dot.
0:11He has a yards per target at a lower a dot.
0:11That's more than one full yard. Better. He has a 9.1 yards per target.
0:11We know efficiency breeds volume. He's been so good.
0:11I guess part of my point is like, I, I think it would be legitimately shocking if he doesn't continue to get volume going forward.
0:11I agree with you. Like at a snapshot in time, his current target share is something, but like, that's not like he's
0:11been so, such a big part of why this offense has been very good.
0:11And Vele has been good too. And a lot of his been the best, but like the, the, the receiving yards for
0:11the team are 375, 173 for Johnson, 172 for Vele.
0:11And then fans fourth at 66 as that, you know, the, the secondary tight end and then ETN at 51, who, by the way, ETN is on IR.
0:11I just saw that is a breaking news as we're recording.
0:11Kind of a bummer. Bryce Lance is doing nothing.
0:11He's the other guy running all the routes. He has eight targets, 50 yards.
0:11Well, I, I, I, I, he's, he's technically third, just in a market share sense.
0:11He's not third in yards. He's tied for second in catches.
0:11He's way more efficient. They're clearly going to want to feature him more.
0:11And even if the two B doesn't even fit for me, like he's two a, like Vele has got a couple extra targets.
0:11They're very, very close. And there's no four. Like there's like, who's four?
0:11Like, well, two is coming in and like two weeks.
0:11Is he back in two weeks? Is he going to be back in two, two, three, four.
0:11I mean, we don't know for sure. It's gonna be two weeks, but like reasonably imminently, he's eligible.
0:11He was out for like, I thought he was out for like eight weeks.
0:11He's eligible to be back in two. The reporting is, has been positive.
0:11There was like a blurb that I think it was Chris Alave was on K Adams show.
0:11It's like all speculative, but there, there seems to be positive momentum that he's going to be back at the shorter end of his timetable.
0:11It's going to be, he could play as soon as week five.
0:11Maybe it's more week six, week seven, week eight.
0:11At some point in the early to mid season, Tyson probably coming back.
0:11And like, yeah, I think it's a fair point too.
0:11I, and so like to me, it's so Juwan Johnson at a 14% target share, I guess.
0:11Like, so your case would be, I can't imagine that you think he's going to be the tight end to on a 14% target share all year.
0:11I don't know. I don't, but I also don't think he's going to be at a 14% target share all year.
0:11Right. He's been this effective. That's why I was asking.
0:11I think, do you think it's going to go up?
0:11He's tied for fifth in the league in, in targets, small tight ends with Sam Laporta, only behind McBride, Schultz, likely in Warren.
0:11Like the 14% target share point is about targets, but as raw targets are tied for fifth best in the NFL, like I've already made this point.
0:11It's because they've thrown so many passes. I, it's the only stat that is negative Juwan Johnson.
0:11And I, I just, I'm not trying to like put you like super on the defensive.
0:11And part of the reason I'm hammering this point so much.
0:11I fundamentally disagree on this. I'm happy. Put me on the defensive.
0:11Well, I think it's indicative of a larger issue that I think is.
0:11I see in fantasy. And I'm not trying to put all that on you.
0:11I think people talk about stats that are so divorced from what's actually happening.
0:11And it's like, what, what are you watching? There's so much production in three games with Juwan Johnson.
0:11And it's like, you want to, you just, I mentioned the only stat was a target share and you just brought up target share again.
0:11You want to keep saying target share. That's fine.
0:11But like this guy is again, I don't think he's going to be tight in two, but that's not the bar he needs to clear.
0:11The reason he's your most own tight end is because he was going tight on 18.
0:11But like, I don't think he's going to be better than maybe even like tight end 10, but he's like, I was
0:11hopeful for that coming in, but like he was going way, way low.
0:11We were both obviously very into him. We talked about him a lot on the show.
0:11We both haven't ranked very effectively, but even if I like tight and 10, maybe concedes too much, frankly, of the point,
0:11part of what you're arguing is like against a tight end to current standing, which is I'm emphasizing for effect.
0:11Cause he's, he's very narrowly ahead of Kelsey and kill and some of, and Kincaid's fifth right now.
0:11They're all within five points or four points there in PPR.
0:11Um, and yeah, he has the three touchdowns and we don't expect him to get three all of last year.
0:11We don't expect him to be that big of a player.
0:11But what I'm talking about more is like, he's been so integral to them looking so good in their, in their offense.
0:11He's made some key place. Like after week one, I wrote negatively about him and week two and week three, it was
0:11like, dude, he's making big plays for them in big spots.
0:11He's making guys miss. He's like converting key first downs.
0:11And I do feel like he's still kind of a bias against him about the usage, like, or like the style of
0:11player he is and what the routes mean and all that stuff.
0:11And, and then like, just like, like seeing what he's actually doing through, through glasses of like, it can't sustain.
0:11I see that a lot in fantasy where people are just like this thing.
0:11That's clearly happening. Isn't happy. And I, I don't know.
0:11I, I never understood why I was going tight in 18 and now he's, he's scoring as the number two tight end.
0:11And I'm not saying he's going to continue, but like to hear you be like, yeah, I actually think worse of him now.
0:11I'm just like, what, what is like, what is actually happening?
0:11Fantasy points matter that more than target share. Like, do you see what I'm saying?
0:11Like efficiency tends to breed volume for a reason.
0:11He's been awesome. He's been awesome. I mean, I don't know why I'd be biased against the player.
0:11Who's my most drafted player. Like if anything, I should be seeing it through rose colored glass.
0:11I, it's not like I'm, I'm biased against, I love Juwan Johnson and I have him everywhere.
0:11So I'm, I'm enjoying the points. I like, okay.
0:11I won't hold you to the standard of tight end too.
0:11So let's, let's maybe like, where, where would you have him roughly?
0:11Like we did this with love. Like how many tight ends did you prefer over him right now?
0:11Like, I don't know. Like, so like, then maybe we're not even that far apart, but I, the, yeah, I don't think we are.
0:11I don't think we are. And I, that's why I keep saying, I don't think I'm really even like arguing with you
0:11because important context to even you saying you'd have him lower than where you had him.
0:11Preseason is you had him like, I had him like tight end 10 preseason.
0:11Yeah. Yeah. We both had him. We both had him as a low and tight end one.
0:11We talked about this. We both had him really, really high.
0:11Um, and that's, that's awesome. Like, like great call, but I still like, it's just the, the very specific point of like,
0:11when a guy starts this hot, I don't care about target share.
0:11I don't care about the peripherals. I don't care about like all of the stuff that we talk about in fantasy.
0:11People overstate these like little, this is the nuanced point that like, I don't even want to put on you.
0:11Cause you're like one of the sharpest analysts in the entire space, but people miss the force for the trees to do
0:11the, like, this is the way that I, when everything's a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
0:11This is the way I analyze players. I analyze players through usage and analyze players through market share and analyze through players through all these different things.
0:11And I'm not saying this is you at all.
0:11I 100% I'm not. Cause you were in on Johnson and it's very relevant that you were so high preseason that you made that statement.
0:11I just, it just shocks me a little bit to say that you would be less in on a guy who's, who's hitting like this.
0:11Like at a certain point, we should just pick up and start the players that are scoring points.
0:11We were talking about this a little bit with a quarterback position on one of our co-man teams.
0:11And I'm not saying you disagreed with that either.
0:11I am not. I'm not, I'm making this as a broad point to the fantasy industry.
0:11I'm not making this as an anti Jacob point, but there are so many things in the modern like fantasy landscape.
0:11And it is like a thing that I see as an issue.
0:11And I'm like sensitive to, as somebody who's been doing this for a really, really long time where it's like, I'm going
0:11to tell you that things are like different than what's actually happening.
0:11Like what actually production is happening. I'm going to use all these advanced stats, which I use to their important context.
0:11That's how we get to layers of stuff, but people, again, it's a miss of forest for the trees point.
0:11It's not that they're not valuable. People substitute what's actually happening for like a bunch of advanced stats and say, like I
0:11was right anyway, or something to that effect. And it's like, that's not how this works.
0:11Like, it's not actually, it's not better to, to be good at the advanced.
0:11Like people, like I've seen a lot of people mock this as well.
0:11And they say like, whatever, right? Like I made a joke about Loveland is doing great.
0:11My points per pass blocking snaps league. Cause he's, it's driving me a little nuts, but the point is the miss the
0:11forest for the trees point is really what, I mean, I think I've sort of made the point and we don't have
0:11to agree at the end of the day. And, and you believing that John Johnson's production is unsustainable and thus you're a
0:11little bit lower on him than a really lofty preseason expectation.
0:11Doesn't, you know, doesn't, it is not incongruent with what I'm saying anyway.
0:11Uh, yeah. I mean, I'm sure we would like both agree that it's, it's obviously like quite literally unsustainable in the sense
0:11of like, I don't think that, I don't think that either of us would expect that if he continues like at this
0:11market share, that he is going to be the tight end too.
0:11So the question is like, how, how much is he going to regress?
0:11Um, because I think we would both agree it's, it's some.
0:11And then the other option is like, does the market share just change?
0:11I mean, if, if Tyson wasn't a looming factor, and maybe he won't be a factor, like maybe Tyson, um, ends up
0:11not returning or returning later than anticipated, or he returns that he immediately re aggravates his hamstring, or he isn't as good
0:11as I think he's going to be. Um, like then I would be inclined to agree.
0:11I, I, so to the specific Tyson and target share point, cause I haven't even addressed that.
0:11I haven't even engaged with it. I'm thinking about it now on the terms that you're thinking about it.
0:11Johnson's 14%, the way that I would describe it.
0:11I don't see a lot of ways that it can go a lot lower.
0:11He's like the tight end. Obviously it's fantasy too.
0:11They kind of play different roles. It's, it's not the same, but it's, it's vaguely similar to what you were talking about with Bowers and, um, mayor.
0:11Like they're, they're both guys are playing. Jawan Johnson's out there a lot.
0:11His, his routes have like week one, I was concerned about the routes.
0:11The routes went up in weeks two and three, if I'm not mistaken.
0:11Um, I mean, that's what I remember. I think signals, I'm pretty sure they were like 59%.
0:11Then they were like low seventies, like 72, 73 or something like that.
0:11That's what I remember from signals, but I don't have it in front of me.
0:11So you're, you're pulling it up now. It seems like, but the, the, the point about the, the target, target sharing Tyson
0:11response, like returning while you looked that up, that the point that I would make would be, um, that I think most
0:11of Tyson stuff will come directly at the expense of Valet, who has not actually looked as like, he had a really good game in week one.
0:11And I felt like he has not looked as good.
0:11And I feel like Tyson's going to just, you know, ultimately get ready enough that he's going to take over that role.
0:11Um, I guess they had a decent second game too.
0:11I didn't like what he did in that Raiders game.
0:11I thought he had a really rough game. Um, the, uh, that's that second receiving role.
0:11I mean, Valet is still going to play. Um, but I don't, I guess I just don't think it like, it's not like, Oh, John Johnson's at 14%.
0:11Tyson's not even here. And now Tyson's here. And we have to move that down.
0:11I actually think it's probably going to come from Chris Alave to a degree as well.
0:11Cause Chris Alave is like target shares just been massive, right?
0:11It's like almost 30%, even though they're at the, the thing, the point about them being at the, at the very high,
0:11uh, attempt number is there's actually statistical proof of this.
0:12My guy, um, Brian Malone back in the day showed that, uh, at road of his that, and I used to talk
0:12about this and I remember him doing the research on it.
0:12And I, I, uh, past offices that throw for more volume, it's harder to consolidate the target share at lower volume offenses.
0:12It's like, Jackson Smith and Jigba and the Seahawks don't throw that much.
0:12And you know, like Drake London had 70 something percent of the receiving yards for the Falcons this week.
0:12They also had the lowest pass rate in a game by any team this year.
0:12And I think since the beginning of last year, they had like a 37% pass rate.
0:12Penix barely threw the ball, but when he threw the ball, it went to London every time.
0:12And like, that's, that's, that's why like they're a run based offense.
0:12They're only looking to London when they throw, when you throw a ton, you got to spread it around some, you can't
0:12just throw to one guy every time. It's just like, there's a functional logical response for this as well.
0:12So Chris Alava having like nearly a 28% target share in an offense, leading the league in pass attempts is massive.
0:12And I do think that's going to regress. If you have a Jordan Tyson level receiver alongside, I do think that's like bad for Juwan too.
0:12But I guess my point is like, the default for me right now is 14% is, is clearly low for a guy that's been really efficient, really productive.
0:12And the game, like Kellen Moore is going to go and game plan for ways to get the ball in Juwan Johnson's hands more.
0:12They just lost their starting running back. Like this is a guy that's doing things that is working in the offense.
0:12It's why efficiency leads to volume. My default for him, maybe it wouldn't be 20% plus, but at least be like 17 or 18%.
0:12And then maybe from there, like going forward based on where he's been, like Ben or whatever.
0:12And the volume may come down. And so maybe then like that, that boosts it anyway, because things get a little bit more consolidated.
0:12But from there, like maybe Tyson pulls from it.
0:12Maybe I don't know, but I, my point is like, I'm not trying to make a, I'm not trying to be too
0:12precise about predicting the target share, but to answer your question about the target sharing, where I think it would wind up,
0:12my expectation would be going forward immediately in a very short term before Tyson's back, that this target share will rise.
0:12That would be my like clear expectation. And then maybe Tyson brings that back a little, but Tyson would mostly pull from Valey.
0:12He'd mostly take all of Valey's routes, or if Valey doesn't lose the routes, then Bryce Lance does.
0:12But then Valey loses like targets. Like it's like, I don't think it would just go to all the receivers.
0:12Cause again, John Johnson's been a really efficient player and he was really good last year.
0:12Like this is, he's a, I, my concern for Johnson.
0:12And part of the reason I wasn't on him on every single draft was that people were right.
0:12And he wouldn't actually be a big part of the passing game, even though he was third in the NFL and tight
0:12end yards last year, that they'd have other plans and they'd go to other guys.
0:12And it looked that way a little bit in week one.
0:12He didn't get a lot of his production until the second half of week one.
0:12I think actually it was all in the fourth quarter and overtime.
0:12And so I wrote it up as noise in week one of stealing signals.
0:12I was like, I'm concerned. John Johnson didn't do anything through three quarters, but then they were like, Oh wait, fourth quarter and overtime.
0:12John Johnson was great. We got to find ways to use this guy.
0:12And they mostly have done that since. And it's been like, yeah, he's one of our best players in the passing game.
0:12And we're going to focus on our best players and we're going to find ways to use them and highlight their strengths and all these things.
0:12And that's why I'm just not like that focused.
0:12One of the things with target shares, like if he doesn't have a catch for three quarters in week one, like that's part of it.
0:12Right. Like is like last week's target. Like, I don't know.
0:12I guess week two was his lowest target. His target shares, I think pretty consistent.
0:12I think he, he, I think he said a season high this week, but it was still, I think under 20.
0:12His road, his road. But you get the point I was making.
0:12Yeah. But his road share was still higher in week one than any other week because he, because they put so much time in catch up mode.
0:12And I remember you had this note in signals and I thought it was a really good note where you'd said like
0:12you, you, I think you had said something to the effect of, I think his route share is a little bit higher
0:12than like it would have been because he was the clear tight end.
0:12And in that like total circus mode at the end where they were just passing every single play.
0:12And it felt like he got more involved as the game went on.
0:12He was up at 78 that week, crashed to 57 a week too.
0:12And then he leveled out at 68 last week.
0:12I mean, I think that the plan coming into the season was probably to deemphasize him a little bit based on what
0:12we saw in week one, based on the fact that like last year they lost Foster Moreau.
0:12They didn't have fan. They didn't have dealt. And they used Johnson for the first time in his career as a true, every single down tight end.
0:12And he had a breakout season this year. They added fan.
0:12They added dealt. I thought coming into this season, my expectation for Johnson was, like that.
0:12Okay. Yeah. He has blocking limitations, but without Jordan Tyson, they have pass catching limitations and that those limitations are going to trump the blocking limitations.
0:12And Johnson is going to be in largely the same role he was in last year, more or less.
0:12And that wasn't really the case in week one.
0:12And it became like kind of more apparent that that wasn't the case in week two when they were in less of
0:12like a circus mode, the whole game. But what Johnson has done, especially week two.
0:12And then that really carried over to week three is he's been like a yak God, which wasn't even really his role last year.
0:12Like I thought, like one of the reasons he was third in NFL receiving yards last year is he had abnormally high a dot for tight end.
0:12He was getting a lot of those like seam plays and stuff.
0:12That's been a little bit less. The role he has a 12% area yard share this year, but he's been super impressive as a yak player.
0:12He's over six yards after the catch perception. Which that's like, to me is like a huge point in his favor.
0:12He's doing more stuff. I'm like, dude, this guy's evolving.
0:12It's a huge point in his favor. It's a huge point in his favor.
0:12And I think that that's actually a really great role point for him because it's something that a lot of it does not do.
0:12It's something Tyson does not do. So he has a clear role, I think going forward in the offense as the preeminent
0:12yards after catch threat, because that's, that's like the weakest point of both of their best two wide receivers.
0:12And it's maybe something that they thought they were going to get out of Camara because they kind of tried that in week two.
0:12That was a disaster. And so I think that's a clear like niche for him that is going to stick.
0:12They like, they have still used a lot more of the other tight ends.
0:12And I do think that if they become more 11 personnel focus, it's going to have like some issues.
0:12I guess it's just like, they're going to find ways to keep Jawan Johnson a major part of the offense.
0:12And he's, he's done enough that I'm not worried about it.
0:12Like crashing to zero. I'm very happy about the shares that I have.
0:12Like, I think he's going to be a fringe tight end one from like this point forward.
0:12I guess that doesn't mean that I wouldn't rather him run 90% of the routes, like instead of running, you know, 70% of the routes.
0:12Like I, like if he was, if he was running 90% of the routes, like I do think he would actually potentially
0:12be like a top five tight end. So I, I, I don't know.
0:12I, I don't like it's, I think that the lack of blocking can both be a very like real limiting factor, but
0:12it doesn't have to be a disqualifying factor. And I mean, usually like what I've tried to write about tight ends pretty
0:12consistently is like, like I've, I've maintained that it's, I think it's important to understand the blocking abilities of tight ends so
0:12that you can have some idea of what their role will be like in a vacuum.
0:12But then what's extremely important. And I've always emphasized this is to try and get a feel for the offense.
0:12Um, because like, there are certain offenses where like ultimately this is all about comparative advantages.
0:12Right. And I mean, the toughest part is that like, I have to make a guess of what I think an offense is going to value.
0:12And then the coach is going to have their own idea and the coach's idea in week one might not be their idea in week seven.
0:12And so all of this can, can change, but like in some often, you know, in some offenses, a coach might say,
0:12I don't give a shit about if you can block, I don't have any wide receivers on this team.
0:12So I need a tight end. It's going to go and make plays.
0:12And in some offenses, the coach might say, I have so many good wide receivers that I don't need to play my,
0:12uh, non-blocking tight end because I don't want receiving.
0:12I don't prioritize receiving as much out of the tight end position, but then other coaches, like what I think is happening
0:12with the bears will say, I feel good enough about my wide receivers that I am going to play my, you know,
0:12my, my all around tight end, but I'm going to keep them into pass block.
0:12Like I, it's, I mean, I think it's just a really, really hard position to predict.
0:12Um, because it's so volatile. That's why we spend so much time talking about it.
0:12Is it, it is, there is nuance and it is super hard to, and like you, you've been right on so many
0:12of these tight end debates or conversations that we've had over the past where it's like, yeah.
0:12And one of the things you've said to me before is like, 10 is just weird.
0:12It's like, yeah, it is. I totally, I totally agree with that.
0:12Anyway, I'll let go ahead and finish. But no, I mean, that was, that's pretty much all I was trying to say
0:12is I just think that like you, you go through all 32 teams and you can find examples of like, well, this
0:12tight end is this, this tight end is blocking ability is backfiring.
0:12And then you find another one. And it's like this tight ends, um, lack of blocking ability is keeping them off the field.
0:12But then it's like, well, this tight end is, is they're finding creative ways.
0:12And it's like, I, unless you have access to the coaches meeting, it's, it's almost like an impossible task because once you
0:12kind of see how things work, it feels like the solutions were always staring us in the face the entire time.
0:12Like for instance, the bills decided this year that Dalton Kincaid was going to be a massive part of their passing game.
0:12And they have found really creative ways to accentuate his skillset and mitigate some of the blocking issues.
0:12Like they're, they're running in some of these, um, uh, 11 personnel snaps with him, where he's just motion out, detached from the formation.
0:12And they're either keeping running backs into block or they're like blocking with key on Coleman, because they've decided like Coleman can
0:12block more than your, more than most wide receivers.
0:12And Kincaid's a better receiver than most tight ends.
0:12And so we're going to basically invert it. Like all of these are solutions.
0:12They also could have used those solutions in previous years and they didn't.
0:12So it's like within the same player, we can see examples of where Dalton Kincaid's strengths are helping him, but this is others where it's hurting him.
0:12And it's like, how do you decide at a given year, which it's going to be?
0:12I mean, maybe the answer is just this position is so weird that we should just only ever draft either the very,
0:12very elite tight ends who have proven it so unbelievably unambiguously like Trey McBride and Brock Bowers, or we should just draft
0:12the cheaper ones because it's so hard to predict.
0:12It can happen. Yeah. That's that's right. And that's a greater late conclusion.
0:12I've talked about this, a greater late strategy. Uh, Adam Mazur came up with that name when I was still at CBS.
0:12Cause I would, I was always talking about that or like, that's the way he coined it.
0:12But I, he was like, you, you like a greater late strategy.
0:12And I was like, yeah, I mean, I think, I don't know.
0:12They may have used that a long, a long time prior to me being there, but, um, that I'm not taking credit
0:12for it is all I'm trying to say, but that's the way that I've viewed tight end for, for years since I've,
0:12since I've been at CBS, I've written about it, the newsletter, a bunch of greater late strategies, a huge one.
0:12The, um, the point you were making about, unless we're in the coaches meeting was a, like, this is one.
0:12So I keep saying like, I'm not, I'm not disagreeing with you, but this is one where I am going to say
0:12that, like, I felt like you have simplified our tight end conversation sometimes to like, this can't happen.
0:12Something can't happen because of a player's limitations. The way that you said that would literally like, even if they were circumnavigating
0:12the IR rules to get EI Stowers on IR would literally be a case that in week five, they could have a
0:12game plan for Eli Stowers that surprised us. And in hindsight, we'd look back and go, yeah, that's why they took him in the second round.
0:12And they thought he was worth, he's an athletic freak that they took in the second round.
0:12And they, they actually did have a plan and they circumnavigated some stuff.
0:12But when God got hurt, they got him ramped up behind the scenes and week five, he had this role.
0:12And that's been my point with you. It's ours is like, he's a last round pick on some of the teams that
0:12we took was like, is it possible that this like best jumps in, in combine history, great athleticism and actually a decent receiving production profile.
0:12But I know you have concerns about how that actually came about at the college level, but this position change guy, et
0:12cetera, who a lot of people say can't even block and has all sorts of issues.
0:12And they have limitations in, in camp, but is it possible that they would as an answer for their issues that they
0:12don't have, like they're throwing a Don Tavian wicks as much as they can.
0:12Cause they got nothing that they may want to use that guy that you'd be willing to like stash him in a
0:12tight end premium setting and just see, which we we've cut him because he's on IR and everything.
0:12And I don't think it's probably going to happen for Eli Stowers, but the point is you can still add him for
0:12$1 right now and see if this would happen.
0:12If he, if he does get activated after week four or whatever, is that possible?
0:12And I felt like your response has been definitively.
0:12It is not possible. And I feel like what you're saying on this episode is it's totally possible.
0:12Well, of course it's possible. I mean, of course it's possible.
0:12I just, I felt like I've lived in like bizarro world about Eli Stowers all year.
0:12And this is getting into a dynasty discussion that like is not, you know, usually the focus of our show, but like
0:12Harold Fannin came out, the previous year was younger, was in my opinion, a way better receiving prospect.
0:12And had clear like blocking limitations, but like, I thought was still a way better blocker than Stowers was on the scale of tight ends with blocking limitations.
0:12And everyone like, like from a market perspective, essentially said, it is impossible that this will work out.
0:12He is a third round rookie pick in dynasty drafts, undrafted in other leagues.
0:12And like, I, in my writeup on Fannin, like I identified all of those issues.
0:12And like, I obviously did not predict that the modal outcome was the rookie season that he would have.
0:12I mean, I don't think anyone predicted that as being the modal outcome, but like, he was my highest exposure recommendation player that year.
0:12Cause I was like, like, if I'm wrong, the ceiling here is tremendous and it's being priced.
0:12Like it's impossible. But then Stowers comes out. And I felt like he was a, like my subjective opinion was he was a worst receiving prospect.
0:12I like, depending on how much you weight athleticism versus production, I could totally understand why people thought he was a superior receiving prospect.
0:12I thought he was way further away as a blocker.
0:12And then most importantly, at least with Cleveland, I can look at that team and say like, these receivers totally stink.
0:12I could see them playing a bunch of two tight end sets with him and Njoku.
0:12I could see them like basically just deciding like, who cares if Fannin has blocking issues?
0:12Cause we need to get his receiving juice on the field.
0:12You know, coming into this year, I was a little lower on Fannin cause of Boston and Concepcion, but I still felt
0:12like his routes weren't that much of an issue because they don't have any other tight ends to play.
0:12Whereas the Stowers, it's like the math gets really tough, like because of his very specific situation, not like his justice classification,
0:12but the Eagle spot is especially difficult because you, there are some specific limitations and how they can get him on the field because they have Smith.
0:12It's never going to come off the field. Lemon, who's a really good player, or at least I think he is.
0:12It hasn't really proven that yet, but I still think he is.
0:12And who is ideally best situated in the slot.
0:12And then Wicks, who I think is quite good.
0:12And so I felt like the situational factors against Stowers were like many.
0:12And yet, like he was going in round one of rookie drafts.
0:12I guess it's a way weaker class, but the valuation on Stowers, like I felt like was just really optimistic and blowing past warning signs.
0:12I'm, I don't think I've like, it's definitely not impossible that he will hit at some point in his career.
0:12I don't even think it's completely impossible that he can hit this year, but like my lean was, it's unlikely.
0:12I mean, you get into it like a redraft conversation when a guy is a literal last round pick.
0:12I mean, I don't think you can make an argument that is like particularly certain against anyone being a last round pick.
0:12I mean, because I think that's a way more, but it's a way more nuanced discussion than we've, than I, than I've
0:12understood from you on Stowers and particularly the dynasty stuff, because I mean, I, I, you're right.
0:12I don't look at dynasty a lot to me.
0:12Fannin was, you know, a 14th round pick 12th round pick, even by the end of, of August for some, you know,
0:12some of these leagues in FFPC, I still took them in every league.
0:12Like I had a ton of fan in last year and the FFPC stuff, maybe it wasn't going to the 12th, but
0:12at least like 14th, like you had to pay up for him, but we'd still like pay up for him a ton.
0:12Um, make sure to get him. Stowers is undrafted in most of them.
0:12And so it's fascinating that when you're talking about it from the dynasty lens, I, I get, I get your perspective more
0:12because Fannin was, I mean, I'm just taking your word for it.
0:13I don't really remember this, but Fannin was going third round in dynasty and, and Stowers was going late first or whatever.
0:13Then yeah, obviously that's like, that doesn't make sense.
0:13I thought Fannin was a way better prospect. And Stowers.
0:13So anyway, I'm not, but I always, I always took your perspective on Stowers to be like a lot more definitive than, than what you just laid out.
0:13So anyway, that's, that's fair. I mean, he's definitely a prospect.
0:13I don't like, like, I'm happy to say that, but like, he's not, he's probably not going to hit.
0:13I would never, I would never say about any rookie prospect that it is literally impossible that they can't produce.
0:13I think that that's like a crazy thing to say, but like from a take perspective, like, yeah, he's definitely not, he
0:13was not one of my guys for sure. I'll, I'll like, and if he, if he hits, like, I'll definitely say like, I was wrong.
0:13Like that's an L, but I wouldn't, I wouldn't ever say that it is completely impossible.
0:13And I understand that you let me draft him at, in points.
0:13And I've already told you that was a mistake and we've cut him.
0:13Like, like we're like, there's more nuance to this conversation than the listeners are really being, you know, fully led into on,
0:13or may not remember like within our, our own decisions as our team and stuff.
0:13But, but, um, and I don't want Stowers to be like, my whole thing is like, I don't want Stowers to be
0:13the poster boy of this whole conversation because he, he is a very unique place, a quarterback translated.
0:13And like, he's like, like to your point, very extreme.
0:13Like some of the reasons that you're pretty out on him is he is very extreme on this access.
0:13Like he like almost literally might not be a tight end.
0:13He's like a project, but he's like super athletic.
0:13And Eagles even seem to seem as a project.
0:13And they basically said in August, we got him out in the practice field and realized he's more of a project than we thought.
0:13He's like not ready to be an NFL football player.
0:13And so like, I think you're probably right that they were stashing him on IR.
0:13Well, and that's part of, that's part of the fan and Stowers price discrepancy and redraft, which is like, obviously dynasty drafts happen in May.
0:13I mean, fan and like his summer was like just arrow up, right?
0:13Even before week one, like he was resting with the starters by the end of the preseason, whereas Stowers was like being placed on IR.
0:13So it's like, obviously these are two trains that were moving, like they had very different Augusts.
0:13And so like the fan, the fan and thing is like way larger than that as well.
0:13From the perspective, like you go back to pre-draft, like fan and had, he led FBS in receptions.
0:13He, he carried bowling green to six point road losses at Penn state and at A&M, a big 10.
0:13And, and people are like, yeah, I played at bowling green week competition.
0:13And I was always like, dude, they played on the road at happy Valley and at whatever Kyle field down there.
0:13And they lost by six in both games. And Fannin was like 40% of the offense in both games.
0:13It wasn't even the thing where like his presence wasn't needed or something like he was the whole reason that the bowling
0:13green almost, it's a different conversation about a level of talent.
0:13When, when you're at bowling green, if you play against big 10 and sec teams with bowling green teammates and almost single-handedly
0:13beat them, like that's a different guy. Like Harold Fannin's prospect profile and production profile was obscene.
0:13It was like, to me as can't misses as it gets.
0:13And people were like, well, he runs duck footed.
0:13And it's like, you guys are looking at the wrong stuff, man.
0:13Like you got to look at the stuff that actually matters.
0:13Stowers situation is very different. It's like, he's got interesting.
0:13Like, I think at one point you're like, depending on how you look at the production athleticism, you might think he's a better receiver.
0:13That raised my eyebrows. I was like, there's anyone who thought Stowers was a more productive receiver than Harold Fannin.
0:13That's why this is right. I mean, this is the thing with tight end, right?
0:13There's, there's the blocking receiving thing, but then there's like a whole other like dynasty based mostly argument of like how to
0:13wait production for tight ends versus athleticism. I mean, there's a school of thought that is like production doesn't matter at tight end.
0:13Only athleticism matters tight end. And like, you know, any reasonable person is more nuanced about this, but like, anyway, I, I
0:13would encourage people to like read anything I've written about tight ends.
0:13You'll see a lot of like good takes. You'll see a lot of bad takes in terms of how things took out.
0:13I, one thing I think that people would find is that I, I, I definitely feel like I, I kind of try
0:13to take in as much of the nuance as possible, but I would say the strongest stand that I have on tight
0:13end is that we have gone too far in, uh, prioritizing athletic testing relative to production in some of the dynasty context
0:13stuff, which is, it's getting way off of topic, but like, no, but that's great.
0:13Yeah. I didn't realize that's that. It makes sense.
0:13I've seen that stuff with the athletic stuff with Stowers.
0:13You were helping me understand that the whole reason I wanted to have this conversation is I think you do really great and nuanced work with tight ends.
0:13And I wanted to get your opinion on, and I told you that pre show.
0:13So just for anyone listening, I'm like, it sounds like I'm like coming at you.
0:13I am rubber stamping that you should read all of Jacob's stuff on tight ends.
0:13I think it's super important. It's super nuanced. I mean, the next time that we get in one of these conversations and
0:13I feel like you're being too limiting, I'm just going to be like, remember how nuanced it is, Jacob?
0:13Cause like, that's it. That's like my point on tight ends is mostly like you do so much in depth work on
0:13it that sometimes you're like, I like, I don't like this particular profile or whatever.
0:13It's not going to work for this reason. And I'm like, and, or like sometimes you'll want me to make a case for a player.
0:13And I'm like, I don't want to make the case.
0:13I just think it's like possible that this could work out this way.
0:13Or like, like there's, it's uncertain and I want to play the uncertainty.
0:13And so that's, that's, there's a lot of interrelated stuff where, like you said, I think we're a lot closer on a
0:13lot of this stuff than, than far apart. But like, yeah, when the, the Stowers fan and thing, when, when you talked
0:13through that and then like, when I came back in, I was like, okay, I guess I see what you're saying about
0:13the dynasty stuff because of where they're, cause you referenced this, where their ADPs were in dynasty and the fan was going later.
0:13Cause when you started that, I was like, Oh great.
0:13Here he goes. He's comparing them to like one of the best tight end prospects of the last like 10 years, like
0:13real fair bar to put on Eli Stowers that he has to be like Harold fan and fan was drafted significantly after Mason Taylor and dynasty rookie drafts.
0:13You made a great case as far as dynasty goes.
0:13Um, I think by the time the, the August stuff came rolled around and I'm a lot more involved in drafting and stuff.
0:13And like everyone I knew was super into fan and I was still on ship chasing.
0:13We did fan or no, I left ship chasing last year, but we did a, we, they did a fan and, um, he was the clip guy.
0:13And I, I went on one of the early shows when we talked about fan and I was like on that clip or whatever.
0:13But I remember being like, yeah, like Pat was super into him.
0:13And Sean was super into him. Like everyone I talked to was like super into fan and you were into him.
0:13Like everybody was into him. Cause it's like, dude, this guy's like unique.
0:13He's a unicorn. He's a one of one, like in a different way than Bowers, but like legitimately a one of one,
0:13as far as like a undersized day to tight end goes.
0:13The, I remember talking to Sean about it and like, he went later than Taylor and a lot of those, uh, round two tight ends.
0:13But the fact that he went high round three was really optimistic draft capital for fan.
0:13And we were all like, this is great for fan and in a vacuum.
0:13It doesn't matter that he was the fifth tight end or whatever.
0:13There's a team that believes he's worth an early third round pick.
0:13That's bullish as heck. Cause he, we know he's super good.
0:13The concern was that nobody would see the vision and they would think that he's too undersized and he's duck footed and
0:13he can't actually play at the NFL level. The fact that he went early day or early, um, round three in day
0:13two was super bullish for fan and relative. And so, yeah, like Taylor would go higher because Taylor went higher in the draft.
0:13And it was like, you guys are way too caught up on draft capital, or at least that was my opinion.
0:13There was other guys that would go higher as well.
0:13And that I can't remember. Like Terrence Ferguson was going around fan and as well.
0:13And obviously it looks in year two, like he might actually be a, you know, a positive play, but Oh, Elijah Arroyo
0:13would go ahead of fan and in some of those rookie drafts.
0:13I remember saying round three and I'd be like, yeah, I'd be trying to trade into like early round three and I
0:13only do a few, but I tried to get them on, on every rookie.
0:13I don't have a lot of dynasty. And then a lot of my dynasty is with other analysts.
0:13So I'm like in leagues with Sean and Pat crane.
0:13And like, those guys are going to draft fan in ahead of work.
0:13Like, you know, the ADP is anyway. And like, I'm not going to get a chance to get them in some leagues.
0:13Um, but yeah, he's very, he was very, uh, highly thought of in certain crowds.
0:13So anyway, you've laid out well, but it's different hours thing.
0:13It's like, maybe it's, it's explaining to some of my, cause like, I felt like I had a lot of like, I,
0:13I had like been making a lot of anti-stowers takes within the context of a dynasty market where you had a very high opportunity cost.
0:13And then like, we get into a redraft context where the opportunity cost is basically zero.
0:13And like, my take was still negative. Like, I'm like, yeah, I don't think it's going to hit this year, but like,
0:13I, it's not like I can argue against an opportunity cost of zero, right?
0:13Like, even if you had said like, let's draft, I don't know, literally name a player in the last round.
0:13Like, like, it's not like I can be like, that's a terrible decision.
0:13Like, it's like whoever it's the last round. So it's like, yeah, sure.
0:13Um, but no, yeah, that's important context on Stowers, but like the broader point about tight ends.
0:13I mean, I'm glad that we, we sort of see it the same.
0:13It's like, there's a lot of nuance and these like classifications of like the move tight ends because they're moved tight ends.
0:13They're not going to be good enough at fantasy.
0:13Now, when I started talking about Juwan's routes trend, I, I was trying to figure out who I was thinking of.
0:13Cause I obviously I look at a lot of routes every week for selling signals and stuff.
0:13I knew there was something there. I think I was conflating two players and they're both like move tight ends.
0:13One is Fannin, but Fannin's numbers are all higher than what I gave.
0:13Cause I said it was like the high fifties, like 59.
0:13It was a little low week one. He went up, but it was the same shape, low in week one.
0:13And then higher in weeks two and three. It's what I described with Juwan, the specific numbers I gave for Juwan and
0:13how I was like getting confused was actually the inverse shape for Pat Fryermuth, who I want to bring up as a
0:13move tight end that fits better up to what you were saying.
0:13So Fryermuth was at 72 in week one, then down at about 59 in weeks two and three.
0:13And I, those are basically the numbers I gave for Juwan.
0:13I think I said, I thought Juwan was like 59 in week one, 72 in weeks two and three for anyone.
0:13Like I was like, who am I getting confused with?
0:13It's not Fryermuth. Cause he went down in two and three, but I think the numbers I gave was me just inverting.
0:13Anyway, Fryermuth is a great example of a player that I was high on.
0:13That's an F tight end that the routes have now fallen down below 60% two weeks in a row.
0:13And the reason I'm bringing him up is your point about like a cap potential and Juwan, because you'd love it if
0:13he was even higher in routes and he hasn't been at the 90% or 80% routes is fair.
0:13Like there is a point at which that matters to me.
0:13Fryermuth is a great example. I still think Fryermuth from a per route basis is a really good player.
0:13I talked about him very favorably. I said he was a really good late round tight end pick because two years ago,
0:13he was a backend tight end one. He was like tight end eight or nine in full season points because he ran enough routes last year.
0:13He didn't run enough routes under Arthur Smith. I thought, I thought with Juwan Johnson gone, he might run more.
0:13He started at 72% in week one. I was like, that's enough for Fryermuth.
0:13I was pumped. And then he's been at 59 or 58% the last two weeks.
0:13These are PFS numbers. I think you gave fancy points numbers earlier, slight difference.
0:13A lot of people love fancy points numbers better.
0:13They classify routes better. I agree with that. The reason I tend to use PFS numbers more is that it is more
0:13inclusive and it's, it ends up being unfair to the player because they're, they're not actually like out running routes, but I
0:13like the inclusiveness in the sense of like, I use routes more as a player participation element.
0:13Like they're out there on the past play. And like, if they got out in a route later, but didn't really have
0:13a chance to earn a target, it's there's still, it's still saying something.
0:13And the fact that a lot of the route, a lot of the targets are first read targets.
0:13Anyway, if they're out there and the plate was designed to go somewhere else, and they were like a block and release,
0:13it's almost like, you know, the, the, the, the negative element on their targets per route and their, their yards per route.
0:13If you count that as a route, it's almost like fair because like, it's part of the play design and play calling
0:13that they weren't dialing something up for this player.
0:13So I, I think there's valid arguments to, to, to use either source.
0:13Anyway, I tend to use PFF. I like the more inclusive number just from an analytical perspective and how I use the routes.
0:13It's not to criticize anyone. And I think fancy points does an incredible job with their data.
0:13Um, but the point of, uh, of saying all that is the numbers I'm giving aren't great.
0:13Even at the more inclusive number, uh, frying with has been sub 60% both of the last two weeks.
0:13That's, that's where it gets concerning. I wanted to circle back to Fryermuth to relate back to some of the great points
0:13you did make when you were talking about Juwan, when we were disagreeing a little bit and just say, yeah, I mean,
0:13I can see that stuff at the, not the, not even at the extremes at certain points.
0:13Like it does become a concern for me. So I was following your point.
0:13I'm less concerned about it with Juwan at a point where it's like the specific usage he's at right now feels like
0:13it's gotta be the floor because he's being so productive and such a big part of the offense for Fryermuth.
0:13It's like, they're not getting the ball. Like, but so that, that also to some degree, it comes back to this broader
0:13point I was making about fantasy in general, where sometimes we just need to look at the guys that are scoring points.
0:13I really do think in 2026, like a lot of the fantasy analysis is just designed to be like, I'm trying to predict using advanced stuff.
0:13What's going to change? Cause you want to be the guy who was right about nailing something.
0:13This is not you, but this is like a, an issue of, of other people that they're trying to like, it's the
0:13same concept of like why people are always picking sleepers and draft season.
0:13It's like, Ooh, this is, this is going to regress and this is going to change.
0:13And this is going to change. And then if you're the guy who's like, well, no, this thing that's happening is going to keep happening.
0:13If it keeps happening, no one's like, Oh, this guy was right.
0:13Cause he said the thing that was going to happen, kept happening.
0:13There's, there's no value in terms of like your brand to that.
0:13So my point is for listeners trying to figure out how to win at fantasy air more towards just following fantasy points,
0:13like the literal points that they score, not the site, the literal, the literal fantasy points that the player has scored.
0:13If you're like, I don't know whether to pick up this guy or that guy there, they're, they're back to back in
0:13my waiver column, but one guy has been scoring more points in fantasy football than the other guy by a lot.
0:13Pick up the guy that's been scoring the points and put them in your lineup nine times out of 10.
0:13It literally does for me, like the whole point, the nuance about Juwan's routes and Fryer Moose routes.
0:13The point for me isn't about their routes. It's about the fact that Juwan is getting targets.
0:13He's catching the ball. He's getting yards and he's scoring touchdowns and Pat Fryer Moose not.
0:13And that's actually really relevant to like, whether they'll get enough routes in the future and whether they're actually like worth stuff in the future.
0:13And there are limitations to how high Juwan ceiling can get, which is part of what you boiled it down to.
0:13And I agree with, but the big pushback I have and why I'm optimistic about Juwan.
0:13And I think people should be optimistic about him as he's been productive and teams, especially well-coached teams feature productive players.
0:13And that's where I would expect things to go for Juwan.
0:13Not like he's going to be a 90% routes player, but I do think it's a really good heuristic that gets overlooked
0:13that I just wanted to circle back on that.
0:13Like people get so caught up in the advanced stats and this and that, and so much of fantasy analysis about trying
0:13to figure out something being different than what it is and how it's going to change.
0:13And I'm going to tell you something that's going to be some great thing instead of just being like, yeah, like what's happening is what it is.
0:13And like, that's the thing. And the reality is what's happening usually is what predicts what's happening.
0:13Like a lot of the time it should be default to what's happening.
0:13A lot of times it should be just like, use your fab on the obvious players.
0:13You know, like that's part of the reason we did the Gordon thing is like Gordon had 80% snaps last week.
0:13I gave a bunch of reasons. I was, I was concerned about that, but I also bid large on him in some places.
0:13Cause it's like, there's a reason people are bidding on him.
0:13He did play 80% of the snaps last week.
0:13He did score a touchdown last week. Like there's a very decent possibility.
0:13He scores a touchdown this week. If they get down there inside the five yard lines, like, so anyway, I think that's, that's really interesting.
0:13We, we probably should wrap up. We should. I wanted to make one final point.
0:14It's my last point for me, at least for the episode.
0:14And it wraps back around to Kenny and Sadiq, who we talked about at the very beginning and was a guy who
0:14like, I mean, everything's relative to price and like in dynasty, I think I ranked him like exactly at ADP, but I
0:14was like a little bit cooler on his prospect profile.
0:14And then in like redraft and in best ball, I had him ranked way ahead of ADP.
0:14Cause I thought that the market was being pretty ridiculously bearish on like a first round hyper athlete, all that stuff.
0:14And like, I guess where you can kind of get there.
0:14It's, it's like this tight end stuff. I think it's like almost the, almost the perfect like bell curve meme.
0:14You know, the one where it's like, there's the one side, the other side, they're both right.
0:14And the middle person is the one like, it's like, I think you can, you almost end up in the same place,
0:14whether you approach it like with literally no nuance or whether you approach it with like as much as possible, which is the guy good.
0:14Because I think that's right. I, and like, you know, now we, I think we know the answer to can you speak is yes.
0:14And obviously like before this game, I think the answer and people could have had varying degrees of, of opinions would have
0:14been, I don't know and waited to the yes or the no side, depending on kind of how you view things.
0:14But like all of the concerns about like role and stuff for tight ends are like concerns really only to the point
0:14that a player isn't so good that the coach prioritizes things around them.
0:14Right. Because if a coach, if a player is good enough, then other players roles will be curtailed to emphasize the player who's good enough.
0:14Now the frustrating thing. Or there's some nuance. There's some nuance.
0:14Whereas teammates may not, they may be in a situation where they don't have good enough teammates, which is sort of the issue.
0:14Right. Juan for me is like, I've been kind of a little critical of Valey, but also saying that like no one else is producing.
0:14I don't think they really have a lot of receiving alternatives versus like Fryermuth.
0:14They're starting to get some stuff going with like Roman Wilson and darn out Washington is awesome.
0:14Like he's like, you want to throw him the ball.
0:14So that's why a lot of this stuff too, is like, it's, it's like, are they good?
0:14And yeah, you're making a good point. It's a guard a good relative to their teammates, all of their situation.
0:14And that's why like on some of these guys, like the flex tight ends or whatever, there are guys that I've been
0:14very in on in one year and very out on in the next year and sometimes correct and sometimes incorrect.
0:14But like, I do, I don't really have like my guys and not my guys.
0:14Like I'm very much like year to year with a lot of these guys.
0:14But like with Sadiq, it's like, yeah, he's a little undersized.
0:14Okay. Well, if he's not that great of a receiver, that would be a really big problem because like, if you're not
0:14that great of a receiver and you're not that great of a blocker, you're not good.
0:14But if you are as good as he was like this week, like, and I expect he'll continue to show and like
0:14that dynamic, then like the other problems like batter a little at the margins, but like, it's really going to be hard
0:14to stop getting this guy on the field. Why would you want to not get this guy on the field as much as possible?
0:14And so maybe those, you know, maybe the route share matters and stuff from like week four, week five, but from a
0:14big picture perspective, if you're that dynamic, if you're that impressive, it's going to be fine.
0:14And like at the very, very, very extreme apex of that scenario is obviously Brock Bowers, who is just like, obviously going
0:14to be fine because he's basically like Puka to Kua.
0:14Like you had said at the very beginning. Yep.
0:14I think that's a really, really good code. We, we, we talked about, we were going to potentially talk about some receivers.
0:14We didn't have a ton to talk about. We never got around to Gadsden.
0:14He was bummer in, he had some routes and then wasn't good receiver.
0:14It was kind of a weird one. Cause it's like, it's kind of a player.
0:14The receivers you had on the show sheet were burden, stock up, BTJ stock down.
0:14That would have probably been a long conversation. You mentioned downs and flowers as other guys we could talk about.
0:14Maybe we'll talk about them in future shows, reasonable names.
0:14I loved your, or I mean like, sorry, the reason I said all those names is I think people could probably figure
0:14out for the most part, like sort of some of the stuff we may have talked about.
0:14So not that we didn't need to have the conversation, but I don't want people to be like, Oh, I wanted to hear all that too.
0:14Like there wasn't that much that we left off.
0:14We did a good job of getting to everything.
0:14The tight end thing was something that I wanted to talk to you about today.
0:14And I think it was a really good conversation.
0:14I loved your bell curve point. It was a really good coda.
0:14Cause I'm kind of on that like lower IQ side of it when it comes to the tight ends where I'm just
0:14like, just like draft the good players and you're like super nuanced about it.
0:14And you're like, yeah, just draft the good players.
0:14And it gets back to this point of like, we both are really in on Juwan Johnson, who is like a good
0:14receiving player, at least relative to cost. You were like, you know, like we're both very into him.
0:14He's, he was third in the league in, in receiving yardage last year.
0:14Most of the time when a guy is like that good at yardage and only has three touchdowns and finishes his tight
0:14end eight, people are going, well, he's going to score more TDs next year.
0:14So he's, he should be going higher than tight end eight.
0:14And instead of him, instead of that, the reason I always say the yardage point is like tight end eight sounds worse,
0:14but he was, like I said, within 10 PPR points of tight end three.
0:14So he was right in this cluster of like, he's a clear top 10 tight end, arguably a top five.
0:14And if you look at like yards, he was a top five tight end.
0:14And, um, he was going like tight end 18 genuinely for like most of draft season.
0:14And it never made any sense. Both you and I are getting there.
0:14The point that I wanted to add to your Coda was, I think this is a, a, a, um, what's the money
0:14ball line about like, uh, gets on base, gets on base.
0:14About the, on, about the on base thing. What an inefficiency in the market.
0:14We've been going for three hours. Inefficiency was the word I was inefficient about finding.
0:14Pretty much. Yeah. She's an inefficiency in the market.
0:14And I would liken it to, and it is, it is using advanced data as a like strict cutoff for such a
0:14weird position, like tight end, which is a onesie position.
0:14Anyway, there's not even that many data points in a given year.
0:14Like one of the things about like tight end research is like so much of it is influenced by the careers of
0:14like Travis Kelsey and George Kittle and like a few of the really good players.
0:14And then like, there's just like, there's so much unique stuff about it that like, it's all just like outliers other than that.
0:14Like you're like aggregate tight end research to me is kind of crazy.
0:14And that's why, yeah, we were talking about the nuance.
0:14The quarterback position had some clear inefficiencies with mobility for years.
0:14And people would just be like, yeah, I can just pick off mobile players at QB every year.
0:14And it's, it's corrected. And I've made the case in recent years at quarterbacks, one of the hardest positions to have like
0:14huge deviations in your ranks from ADP, because for the most part, ADP does a good job of capturing how quarterbacks score in fantasy.
0:14And I think it's fairly predictable at this point, other than the fact that there are a few quarterbacks every year who
0:14spike certain stats that that's kind of unpredictable. It's like past TD rate is a big one.
0:14And it's usually there, they're tied to the, to the teams that massively overperform and the quarterback kind of drives that.
0:14But you're talking about, you know, Matthew Stafford last year and the Rams go really well.
0:14And Drake may last year. And like the Patriots have a really good season.
0:14And like one of the cases I'd make is it like, if people could predict that as well as they think they
0:14can, because when they have a hit, they think they can like, then you should be betting the wind total over on
0:14the quarterback that you're super excited about the late round quarterback.
0:14And those are liquid markets. You can make a lot of money off that bet hundreds and hundreds of dollars on the wind total over for different teams.
0:14Like the Patriots last year, since you were so sure Drake may was going to finish top five, which I took a
0:14lot of Drake may, but I'm just saying like, those are, those are players that spike.
0:14It's not that predictable. The preseason rankings are efficient, not even though the end of season results don't reflect that.
0:14I still believe the preseason rankings at QB are very efficient.
0:14And most of that has been found out. That's the position where I think most has been found out.
0:14Or tight end is the position where I think there is still the most inefficiency in preseason rankings by a lot.
0:14And Juwan Johnson really is the example of that, where it's like, there's no world where this dude should have been going
0:14as late as he was going when he was that good last year.
0:14And the same coach, same quarterback that like really unlocked him down the stretch late in the year, like him and Shuck were, were doing well together.
0:14There's an element of like quarterback and receiver efficiency.
0:14And like he has this, this thing. And anyway, that bell curve meme that you, that you made just made me think
0:14of that as well, where it's like that. The big fat part of the curve is a lot of people making really nuanced arguments.
0:14That's the point of that meme for people who aren't aware of it.
0:14It's like the guy in the middle is making this really long argument.
0:14It's always like a really long thing and it's overly complex and they're wrong because of it.
0:14But that's what I see at tight end. And that's, that was where I was going earlier in the show was like,
0:14the meme was great was the, the masses are constantly making these overly nuanced, like, like, well, not, I think they're missing the correct nuance, but overly detailed.
0:14Like, this is what all the advanced data says and all this stuff.
0:14I do think routes matter. I, they've always been one of the most important points about tight end is who's actually getting out in routes.
0:14I do think like there's other stuff that's really relevant to the roles that you have talked about, but people make that
0:14a, um, disqualifying factor to go back to the word of the day and they miss the forest for the trees.
0:14And then they wind up with these like crazy, like responses that make no sense at this position.
0:14Sadiq being another one, you have a ultra athletic mid first round pick that people refuse to draft a year after fan.
0:14It's like, what are we doing? You know? I mean, like people got really stoked about Ferguson finally, but he was also
0:14one that was kind of weirdly, really low. Then he shot way up.
0:14And then that was the guy I ended up writing about was like, well, then if you can't get Ferguson cheap, then get, you know, you'll get Sadiq.
0:14Like just get Sadiq on every team. It's just like fan in the year prior, like in tight end premium on FFPC.
0:14I have a massive exposure to him, which again, shout out Sean Siegel.
0:14He's the one who was like super into Sadiq, but like we're taking Sadiq on every single team in the 14th round.
0:14Me and you took them on some of our teams.
0:14Like, why wouldn't you just take him in the 14th round and tight end premium?
0:14Even Juwan Johnson was going higher than that. Like Juwan Johnson is like a 10th round pick, eighth round pick in some of those.
0:14So anyway, I think that was that bell curve meme was such a good conclusion to the discussion.
0:14And I just wanted to throw in there that I do think there's this pretty meaningful inefficiency that's captured by that middle
0:14part of that meme where people get so overly precise about some of the advanced stuff with, with tight ends and miss the forest for the trees.
0:14And that's, that's the other side of that meme.
0:14All right. We got to stop the show before it starts with a four.
0:14Okay. We're at three 57 right now. We love you guys.
0:14We're going to talk soon about, um, love it.
0:14Potentially doing one of the patron shows. We're going to do an in season show at some point.
0:14Me and Jacob already talked about a little. He's, he made a great point that we're going to be figuring that out.
0:14Uh, we're going to wait until like the buys hit and then try to figure that out.
0:14Or that's the current plan. So should be coming in the next couple of weeks.
0:14Love you guys. We'll be back next week. See ya.

More episodes from The Long View Podcast

6