0:00Young Players Going in Different Directions and some injuries at the running back position.
0:00That's what we're going to be talking about today on The Long View Podcast.
0:00I'm Ben Gretch. You can find the Stealing Signals newsletter at bengretch.substack.com.
0:00With me, as always, is Jakob Sanderson. You can find his wonderful Thinking About Thinking newsletter at jacobsanderson.substack.com.
0:00Week three, we have a short show sheet that you've put together, Jakob.
0:00We were just talking, you know, the conversation is so good.
0:00We'll be out of here in no time. Conversations, you know, we'll try to keep them, whatever, but they could be, the
0:00short show sheet's going to be so long. There's several players here that we're going to discuss.
0:00Three weeks of data is just enough that there's a little bit of a sample.
0:00It's not just small sample. It's not just this.
0:00It's not just that. You start to believe you really understand some things.
0:00At the same time, we still know, I mean, I think most of the, the key storylines, one of the big things
0:00that I've felt in the, when I, when I've reviewed stuff in the past that I've found, frankly, is after about like
0:00three or four weeks, a lot of the key storylines of the season have shown their face.
0:00Like, the way that I'm saying this, or thinking about this is over at my other podcast, Dealing Bananas.
0:00We haven't been doing a lot, a lot of shows lately, but we, we do a projecting next year's ADP show in the off season.
0:00And then we typically do an in-season check-in. The in-season check-in tends to be very accurate.
0:00And we often do it after just like four weeks.
0:00So like after four weeks, if you can predict the next season's ADP pretty well, like that's pretty, pretty fascinating.
0:00You kind of know like, which it's been way more accurate than even some of the stuff we've done in August, which,
0:00you know, we've done, we've done well as well, but you learn a lot in the first month.
0:00At the same time, there are still a lot of things that are a mirage.
0:00There's a lot of people writing in the space right now about trends through three weeks last year.
0:00That didn't hold up. And there's, there are plenty of those types of examples too.
0:00It's just enough time for us to have real data, multiple data points, real reason to believe what we're seeing.
0:00And also real reason to build theories on why what we've seen so far may not continue, which creates real nuance to all of the discussions, right?
0:00I mean, I think there's a, so anyway, we'll, we'll see how long the show goes, but I, I'm taking a long
0:00time just to describe where we're at in the season.
0:00I haven't even kicked it to you yet. How are you doing?
0:00I'm excited to talk through some of the stuff with, you know, that we have three weeks.
0:00There's some players that when, when we were talking about the show sheet, I sent you some names that I was excited to get your thoughts on.
0:00I've seen some of your comments on maybe they differ a little bit from, from how I'm thinking about it.
0:00I'm really curious. You had some great notes on Hampton and Keaton Mitchell last week or week one, one after one of the weeks.
0:00And that's really played out. And I want to check in on that and check in on some other things as well.
0:00You know, some, some of those great takes. I want to hear some of your other expanded thoughts on some of these other situations.
0:00We'll definitely get to those. We'll have a lot to discuss, but yeah.
0:00How are you doing? How's, how have the first three weeks gone for you?
0:00Yeah. I mean, it's like, it's, they've gone well.
0:00Um, it's been really fun getting back into the grind.
0:00It was, um, I don't know if you find this actually, I know you decently well.
0:00So I'm going to guess that you do find this in fact, um, which is that like when I'm, when I'm watching
0:00the games, it's very easy to like fixate on the takes that look bad and like really obsess on them.
0:00Um, and then I, you know, got to writing, um, hitchhiker sky this week and I wrote dynasty corner this week.
0:00And then it's like, as I get through, I'm like getting back and I'm kind of reminding myself.
0:00I'm like, Oh, like, there's actually a lot of takes that are, that are looking good.
0:00Um, some things are going, you know, how I wanted them to go or how I want to expect them to go
0:00where it's like, it's easy to fall into the trap of being like, you know, this, this one or these couple of
0:00players that things feel substantially worse on like, um, and really wind up kicking yourself over that.
0:00So trying to, trying to keep in a positive frame of mind, like as much as possible.
0:00Um, I wrote about that after, uh, after either week one or week two or something.
0:00And I think the reason that we, we are that way, I, I, you know, apart from us being a certain type of personality.
0:00And I think we're both sort of similar in this regard that we're going to be a little bit harder on ourselves
0:00about things that we don't do right. As opposed to, you know, victory lapping things that we do get, which is, you
0:00know, there's other analysts in the space that will just tell you all the things they get right and never talk about the things that they get wrong.
0:00And, you know, to each their own, I'm not going to, whatever it is, what it is.
0:00I do think there's an element of like, you should tell people what you got right.
0:00And I, I respect the people that do that well from a perspective of it's not anyone else's job to keep track
0:00of all of the takes that you had and all of the perspective.
0:00Like, I don't expect any of my individual readers to know every single thing I said, but I, I, you know, anyway,
0:00one of the ways that like, if you're constantly like, oh, I got this wrong, got this wrong.
0:00I got this wrong. At some point people are going to be like, well, why, why do I listen to you?
0:00Like, you know what I mean? Like, but like the reality is, yeah, there's a lot going right.
0:00But the way that I think about that, in addition to us being inclined that way is just the things that we
0:00got right are things that we have visualized and talked about.
0:00This is how this is going to go. This guy's going to get this type of work.
0:00This thing's going to happen. And then when it happens, you're like, yeah, I already wrote all about this in the off season.
0:00I already thought this was going to happen. It's not surprising to me, but you forget that like, it's surprising to a
0:00lot of other people that weren't as on it as you were.
0:00Like Matthew Golden's one of my best calls this year.
0:00And I've been saying it since I did the, they're the first team I projected the Packers in early June.
0:00And I wrote up, you know, off season stealing signals with the different projections I did.
0:00I think I wrote that one on June 6th.
0:00It was like the first days of June when I was starting my projections process.
0:00I know a lot of people do it a lot earlier, but that's where, you know, that's where my timeline was.
0:00And I wrote about Matthew Golden as being the X receiver and being a real candidate for the intermediate work that was vacated by Romeo Dobbs.
0:00And I had written about him somewhat decently in field tippers earlier in the off season that like, yes, the way that
0:00I wrote it was his yards per hour run from year one was not.
0:00What was the word that I used? Not. I feel like you liked the word on one of the podcasts.
0:00Yeah, I'm trying to. I'm trying to think of it.
0:00I mean, basically what I, I think what you're, I'm going to explain it using 17 words because I can't think of
0:00the one, but like, I don't know, maybe not prohibitive, but like basically it was, it was not so bad that you can't be good.
0:00That's what I'm trying to say, but I'm sure there's a better way of saying it.
0:00That's exactly what it was. I'm going to look it up because I'm so annoyed, but yeah, anyway, I, I, there's a lot of words here.
0:00So it's somewhere in here. Yeah. But yeah, it was, it was exactly that.
0:00Not, not prohibitive from him being good into the future.
0:00Um, but yeah, anyway, I'm still trying to figure it out, obviously.
0:00And I'm, I know there's, there's a good word.
0:00I, I feel like I, yeah, I feel like I even used a similar word anyways.
0:00Yeah. You get the sentiment. Yeah. Um, and I think it was one of these guys that great.
0:00Yeah. Yeah. He was one of these guys that I, yeah, sorry, just to finish the point.
0:00Cause I'm getting myself distracted, but he was one of these guys that I visualized whatever, or I talked about, or I
0:00wrote about, this is the way the offense is going to look.
0:00They've cleared the decks for him. They've done all the stuff, even though you had a bad rookie or he didn't play a lot.
0:00He's clearly going to play more. He may not be perfectly efficient, which he hasn't.
0:00Um, but there's going to be a lot of volume.
0:00There's going to be a lot of opportunity for him there.
0:00All of these types of things. You know, one of the things that, that, that layers in there, there's always context as
0:00Josh Jacobs being out for all of this has probably impacted their pass rate.
0:00And some of those things, which has really been a positive.
0:00And then you get Jane Reed getting hurt. And some of these things were like, yeah, Matthew golden's getting a ton of volume.
0:00The, the, the role is there. The clarity, um, you know, was, was there already.
0:00And then it's like, yeah, I mean, I ended up writing about him last week.
0:00That's why he comes to mind. Cause I did let myself like realize like, yeah, not everybody was this on golden being in this role.
0:00And so, yeah, it's worth, it's worth saying like, yeah, I got this right, whatever.
0:01But it's, it's the, the broad point is it doesn't click immediately.
0:01Like this is a point that not everybody was on because you were on it, whether, whether you're on Matthew golden or somebody else or whatever.
0:01Um, and then the stuff that you're not on or you, or, or, or, or sometimes argue, argued against, and then it
0:01plays out the way that other people saw it.
0:01You're like, man, I feel like an idiot. And like, it's not what I expected.
0:01I didn't see that. I thought about how other people saw that, but I didn't see that.
0:01And now it's happening and man, I look so stupid.
0:01And so you, you, you, you naturally are going to dwell on the thing that is happening.
0:01That doesn't fit what your, you know, analysis perception, et cetera was.
0:01Um, anyway, I thought you said that very well.
0:01It's the way I am two through three, three weeks.
0:01And it doesn't even mean that the three weeks are going to be predicted.
0:01Like Jameson Williams is one. I, the week one role was there.
0:01The drops and everything. And then he only has four targets the next two weeks.
0:01And now I am getting a little bit concerned.
0:01And this is pretty much what people were, who are out on Jameson Williams would have said is like the volume will be inconsistent.
0:01And he also like, we'll have some drops issues or whatever.
0:01Like sometimes his efficiency will be inconsistent. And I mean, the efficiency over the course of both of the last two seasons has stuck pretty strong.
0:01I mean, because he has both some good, really good ball in hand and before the catch point area yards type efficiency.
0:01So I would probably have argued that point. And it's still a small sample there.
0:01I still think that might flip. I still am optimistic about Jameson Williams at the same time.
0:01Like what's happened through three weeks is exactly what people who didn't want to draft Jameson Williams would have said was the issue.
0:01Right. As a person who was like quite open to Jameson Williams, but like probably I'm a little bit less emotionally invested in Jameson Williams.
0:01I would say like I'm not that worried largely because I don't think that at his cost, you know, like I didn't
0:01have him rank quite as highly as you did, but I was still pretty solidly above ADP.
0:01And I don't think that his cost necessitated like the absolute apex leap.
0:01Right. Like I, that I don't think is really happening.
0:01Right. Like there was a, there was a scenario where it was just, they were going to come out immediately and it
0:01was going to be very clearly like JMO is like, if not the one B to Amonra, but is like already seeing
0:01the role he saw at the end of last season.
0:01Laporte is a very distant third behind him and like, we're just off to the races and it's going to be a 1500 yard season.
0:01Like that's, that doesn't seem like kind of the path, but I do think people are probably being a little bit too negative in that one.
0:01I mean, I think that we're just going to see spike weeks from him.
0:01We always do every single season and they, they are, they haven't quite come up yet.
0:01I think week one should have been one of them and it's just frustrating that we didn't get the one in week
0:01one that we probably should have got because he didn't finish a lot of plays.
0:01But I think it's going to happen. He's like under one yard after catch per reception so far this season.
0:01That's not going to hold. Like he's always been a really strong post target efficiency guy.
0:01And I suspect we're going to see that. And then the other big base case and why I think he had a much higher floor.
0:01It's like the big out for him remains. It's a really good offense with a really terrible defense and only four major skill players.
0:01So, I mean, I think you still have the out of if any of Gibbs or Amin Ra or Laporte suffer an
0:01injury at any point, he becomes an absolute turbo smash.
0:01And then, you know, people can say like, oh, well, it only happened because one of those guys got hurt.
0:01I still think he's going to have his weeks with all of them healthy, first of all.
0:01But I also think like you have to think through contingencies when you.
0:01That was the whole point. This is a hyper concentrated.
0:01Yeah. Look at Devante Adams, who I missed on how hyper concentrated that offense is.
0:01I mean, that's that was a huge part of the point was this is hyper concentrated and people are like he can't get the volume.
0:01And the thing I kept saying was you better be confident that he that he has the really low like targets per
0:01route because he's going to run enough routes. And he has been running the routes.
0:01I mean, it's anyway, I'm not worried about him either.
0:01He's running a ton of routes. He's he's going to be out there in a very concentrated offense.
0:01You're talking through it very well. The word on golden was disqualifying.
0:01The year one was disqualified. There we go. That's a great way of putting it.
0:01I mean, to pick up on the golden point.
0:01So I had tweeted about this, I think, after week two.
0:01And it's changed maybe a little bit after week three.
0:01But like if you start looking at the wide receivers, like what I would what I would typically refer to.
0:01It was like the third portion of the wide receiver window.
0:01Or I think I forget exactly where you drop your quarters.
0:01But maybe like maybe it's the third quarter wide receivers, the second quarter wide receivers.
0:01I forget. What are you? Range are you talking around six through ten type guys?
0:01Yeah, that's like receiver back end of quarter to front end of quarter three.
0:01I've always talked about that as being like sort of the borderline.
0:01And that's part of why I call that the cutoff between like quarter two and quarter three is like usually in quarter
0:01three, you start to like be outside the wide receiver window.
0:01Sometimes those guys linger into quarter three, but you're kind of out of that range.
0:01And now you're in zero RB territory. You're in maybe the QB window and maybe tight end window.
0:01Like, you know, like you're right. You can do a lot in quarter three, but all those windows shut in quarter three as well.
0:01And wide receiver may have shut earlier. And then quarter four, you're just in flyers.
0:01You know, like that's kind of the way that I've always thought of that.
0:01Yeah, like that group of wide receivers and honestly, that group of running backs, too.
0:01But that group of wide receivers has mostly been atrocious this year.
0:01Like basically after you get past that group of like like J-Mo, Adams, Evans, whatever.
0:01And like once you get into like Rome and onward, it's been pretty much a death zone.
0:01Like the only guys that I would say you feel markedly better about today than when you drafted them would be Matthew
0:01Golden, Michael Wilson, Josh Downs, maybe Stefan Diggs. And that's like probably it.
0:01And like a lot of those guys are like, not only do you feel worse, but like, like are like cuttable.
0:01Like it's like, like, I mean, some of them, it's been a rough start, like rough start for Rome, rough start for Tate.
0:01Like Marv is like super dead. Brian Thomas, we're going to talk about later.
0:01Obviously a horrible start for him. Some of you guys got hurt.
0:01Little life from Jordan Addison in week three, I felt like.
0:01Yeah, little life from Jordan Addison for sure. But yeah, you're right.
0:01Tough first two weeks for him. Little life for Cardinal Tate.
0:01Little life for Cardinal Tate. Yeah. Little life for Cardinal Tate.
0:01But like, I still think tough start for him.
0:01And like, I think really just a tough start for the Titans.
0:01Like some of these guys just got hurt. And so it's not really their fault, but like dribbling, obviously it's not going
0:01to happen probably this year the way that you wanted Jaden Reed.
0:01Like not their fault, but they're hurt. And then like nothing from Sutton.
0:01Chris Godwin? Nothing from Pittman. Nothing from Godwin. Nothing from QJ.
0:01Nothing from like. Like I'm missing guys. But like a lot of these guys, it's like feels like the book is fully closed.
0:01And some of them, it's like not the start you'd want.
0:01And maybe there's still some hope, but you probably would draft them not as high today as you did three weeks ago.
0:01And it's like three to four guys, I think, that you're legitimately like, man, this is a good pick.
0:01I feel really happy that this is the guy I landed on.
0:01And it's like I kind of bringing this up because I was like really beating myself up over the Marv pick on a couple teams.
0:01Which is a completely dead pick. And we had said that kind of after week one.
0:01But like, you know what? Like there's basically like only a few guys that are good in this range.
0:01And two of them are golden and downs or the two that I like the most.
0:01So I'm like, I actually don't feel that bad about like how I played this range overall, you know?
0:01But it's like kind of the way you said it.
0:01It's like I don't spend that much time thinking about the QJ pick.
0:01Because I'm like, I never picked him this year.
0:01It's going kind of how I thought it would go for him.
0:01And so I'm not like thinking about, oh, like good call by me.
0:01I'm like, well, yeah, of course that was never going to hit.
0:01So it's like you spend, whereas if QJ was hitting every single week, I would be like obsessing over it.
0:01Because it would be, you know, against my expectations.
0:01So anyways. I had a similar, I mean, I talk about this type of stuff in the newsletter all the time.
0:01It's a fun time to think about this stuff.
0:01But I had a subscriber say, you know, you're kind of being too hard on yourself, whatever.
0:01And it's not why I say that. I'm, you know, I'm actively thinking about it.
0:01But he's like, your fades are like 80% right.
0:01And it's funny. I've always said, like, I feel like I do better with fades than.
0:01Everyone does better with fades. Most players don't hit.
0:01That's a good point. But like I do some big, big fades that are like way, way down my ranks.
0:01And Quentin Johnson was one. Cortland Sutton. Jacoby Myers just had a good week last week.
0:01Alec Pierce actually looked decent until he got hurt.
0:01Those are like the ones that were going in that range you were talking about that I had pushed way down as like clear fades.
0:01And they're like none of them are hitting. But you're right.
0:01Most of the guys in that range aren't hitting.
0:01But like I had also had Harrison and Brian Thomas ranked quite a bit below ADP.
0:01And there's several other guys. I mean, some of the early running backs.
0:01I had Barkley as a fade. I had A-chan as a fade.
0:01I mean, it was cool to get that feedback from a subscriber that was like, you know, you're probably being a little
0:01bit hard on yourself because you've been hitting on a lot of Drake May I had as a pretty clear fade early and as an early QB.
0:01And that's not gone well. But anyway, we should do the short view.
0:01We should start the show. Good call. Let's start the show 17 minutes in.
0:01All right. All right. So I would say the big like this was probably the most eventful waiver wire week of the
0:01year so far, especially on like FFPC stuff, which we co-managed some teams on and play.
0:01I know that you'll be hearing this post waivers, but I still think it's relevant to like start sit decisions to maybe some shallow leagues.
0:01Some of these guys are still sitting out there.
0:01They are actually in some of mine. We had injuries running back.
0:01Finally, after running backs were basically protected by force field.
0:01Not obviously not that I'm happy to see any of them, but we got Devon Achan was a super, super disappointing injury with the torn ACL.
0:01And then we got Brees Hall is going to miss.
0:01Sounds like he's going to miss like week to week.
0:01I would say like two to three weeks. It sounds like doesn't sound like IR's consideration there.
0:01And then Travis Etienne, it sounded like IR was part of the conversation.
0:01We'll see if he gets placed on that before Sunday.
0:01I'll say like two to four to six weeks maybe on him.
0:01So curious from your perspective, like assume that you can have your choice of any of these guys.
0:01Different timelines for each, of course, kind of of utility.
0:01Like how excited are you from a rest of season perspective or for this week if you want to touch on that?
0:01The Miami duo of Ollie Gordon, Jalen Wright, even throw in Jarquez Hunter.
0:01The New Orleans guys, Camara, Kendray Miller, and then Braylon Allen.
0:01How do you see these backfields? How do you see these backfields playing out after some pretty significant injuries to the lead backs there?
0:01Yeah, I mean it's a big conversation in terms of all the different backfields.
0:01Maybe we can take them sort of one at a time.
0:01I would say that. For sure. Or just like the easier things, the broad things for me, Camara looks like he's going to get the veteran deference.
0:01He was getting that first game he played. He was getting a bunch of passes.
0:01Etienne catches seven balls in week one. And then suddenly Camara is getting all these first quarter catches.
0:01But he had like 22 yards in that game.
0:01And then last week he had, you know, not necessarily.
0:01Like he looked better in week three than he did in week two.
0:0122 yards on like 15 touches or something in week two.
0:01Like it was not good. And then he had, he ran for 36 yards on nine carries last week.
0:01He had 15 on nine carries the week prior.
0:01He only had the one catch last week. Like they use a little bit of Kendra Miller.
0:01And you mentioned, you know, I, I'm, I'm always naturally more intrigued by the young player.
0:01The player was a little bit upside, all these things.
0:01Miller's had a hard time staying healthy. I do think Camara is going to get that deference.
0:01And then I think it's fairly straightforward that Miller's going to probably look better.
0:01At this point, Camara has been like a three year decline in the peripherals, like a multi-year decline.
0:01He kept, he lost all the rushing peripherals, but kept some of the receiving peripherals through to like last year.
0:01But then the, like the yards per run absolutely cratered.
0:01It had always still been, you know, pretty solid that he could make plays in the past game.
0:01That absolutely cratered. He has six catches for 12 yards on a seven target so far.
0:01Like he can still catch the ball. He can get on the flat.
0:01He looks like the same guy, but there's just not a lot of juice there.
0:01He's not going to turn it up field and get, I mean, even probably a ton of like eight to 10 yard gains.
0:01He may have some of those. He may be able to put together a 60, 80 yard game or something, but I'm,
0:01I'm pretty skeptical that he's going to be able to maintain enough efficiency to have like real fantasy impactful yardage.
0:01It could just be that he's limiting what the backfield is able to do in, in, in some.
0:01But I'm pretty skeptical. He's going to be able to do enough to matter in a meaningful way for fantasy.
0:01And if he's real bad, which is, it seems like is part of the potential range of outcomes here.
0:01Cause so again, he'll have some eight, 10 yard gains.
0:01He may get into some space and have some 15 yard gains.
0:01And then you start to amass some stuff, but you need like to get the real efficiency.
0:01You need to be able to have explosive play upside too, where you can get 20, 25, 30 yards.
0:01And even like plays can break in positive ways.
0:01And I think Kellen Moore is a fantastic coach.
0:01The reason this is such an interesting conversation is the saints are like a top five best fantasy offense.
0:01We know we're going to get play volume. They play hard.
0:01They play fast. They're going to throw the ball.
0:01I wrote about them a ton in my introduction this week for stealing signals that saints Raiders game was in my opinion,
0:01maybe not the most fun, but like one of the most, like most fun games of the week.
0:01It was less fun if you were sitting in first place at DFS contest with no late game players and you were just rooting for nothing to happen.
0:01It was a lot less fun. If that was the situation you were in.
0:01That sounds brutal. The game was like, if you know, you're a Bowers fan, if you're, I mean, I'm not even that
0:01into the saints, but we got a lot of the modern trends.
0:01We got, there was a stat. They showed that at one point they were one away from the record for tight end touchdowns in a game.
0:01They had five and it was for four different players.
0:01And then they did get the sixth or it was three different players.
0:01And then Bowers was the one who didn't have one.
0:01He ends up scoring the six. So they tied the record for tight end touchdowns, both teams, they're, they're passing tight end
0:01scored and they're like block and release tight end scored.
0:01So you had mayor and Bowers and you had both Fanton and Juwan Johnson.
0:01They both caught two. Uh, and, and, you know, that's like the way that we know that the NFL is sort of
0:01trending and they were doing one of the things I loved about what the saints were doing was they were intentionally going
0:01to shotgun with tempo early in the third quarter, not like a two minute drill, but they were running it like a two minute drill.
0:01And they scored a touchdown and then the Raiders fumbled the ensuing kickoff.
0:01And then they just had all this success in like a shotgun tempo situation.
0:01They come out under center and run the ball under center and go for like a 16 yard run on first down.
0:01And it's just like, just this tendency breaker, like the Raiders D's over on the sideline figuring out how do we stop what they were just doing?
0:01They did it so well. And you come out and you're like, we're going to run a completely different offense.
0:01We're going to, we're going to be in the multi tight end stuff.
0:01Now that was the play where ETN, you know, grabbed that as hamstring as he was going out of bounds and he
0:01was hurt and he went off the field, but it was a, you know, a nice run.
0:01Very next play. They go under center again. They have a fullback in there.
0:01They do a play action and then Fant blocks and releases into the flat.
0:01He's wide open. Shuck throws it to him. He catches it.
0:01He runs up the sideline for a touchdown. They had, you know, great starting field position to play drive where their entire
0:01offense looked different than the drive before it. And it was like, you have a completely different.
0:01And I know it's not like something new for teams to go under center for a series of plays or to go
0:01in the shotgun for a series of plays. But like you watch every game every week, like teams tend to do certain types of things.
0:01There's things they see in matchups. They're trying to exploit matchups when they find it.
0:01A lot of times they're just pressing that button over and over and over again.
0:01This is a team, Kellen Moore, that's like, it's not about just spamming play action or spamming motion or spamming what people
0:01say are these easy buttons and these cheat codes.
0:01It's about understanding that all of that stuff is misdirection.
0:01It's breaking your own tendencies. It's getting defenses to see one thing and do something different, which is what defenses do right now so well as well.
0:01They're showing one thing pre-snap. They're rotating post-snap. When the quarterbacks are under center and they're doing the play action, everyone's like,
0:01oh, the quarterback turns his back to the field and he gets a different view when he hits the top of his
0:01drop than he saw pre-snap because there's so much rotation.
0:01The defense is doing that. They want to show you one thing, do something different.
0:02And it's what offenses do. This is not new.
0:02This is what football is. But it's how you play football successfully or how you scheme it or how offenses work at
0:02the base level is a little bit of trickery.
0:02Get a little bit of an edge and then you turn a corner.
0:02I mean, look at that 80-yard touchdown the Niners had where they ran that hook and ladder on a third and long
0:02that we've seen multiple teams do variations of this.
0:02The Seahawks did it, I think, under Ryan Grubb where they threw like a short pass to JSN.
0:02He chucks it across the field, but it was a lateral, to Zach Charbonny on the other sideline who catches it and runs up the other sideline.
0:02It's a full field lateral to convert like a third and 15 or longer.
0:02And we've seen that play a couple times where it's like a long lateral.
0:02This one was a traditional hook and ladder. Mike Evans running a curl route and he held it as long as he could.
0:02He's getting contacted and then he flips it to Debo as Debo's running underneath.
0:02But the whole thing is misdirection. This was a downfield misdirection.
0:02The defense is breaking on Evans. Debo's able to turn the corner.
0:02He's able to beat Buda Baker, I think, was a safety on the corner and go all the way for an 80-yard touchdown.
0:02He ends up with the funniest stat line of the week.
0:02Zero targets, zero receptions, 80 receiving yards and a receiving TD.
0:02He set the all-time record for most receiving yards without a catch.
0:02There you go. Not surprisingly that that was the all-time record, but that's always my favorite when you have no catches but
0:02receiving yards because you got it on a lateral.
0:02But it's the whole point of misdirection. What is the defense thinking?
0:02And even within the play, even after a reception, you get that same element of we're trying to show you one thing and do something different.
0:02That's what all of these easy button markers are for offenses.
0:02That's what – and I hear people – I'm off on a huge tangent.
0:02We're on the short view and I'm making it a long view thing.
0:02But there's so much about football that is about this.
0:02And then I see people simplify it all the time on social and stuff.
0:02They're like, this team just needs to run more play action.
0:02They need to do more of this and this and this and this.
0:02And it's like there's a reason why – for example, I loved Mike Leach as an offense.
0:02But Mike Leach was pressing the bounds of passing.
0:02And it was like throwing 80% of the time.
0:02And there's a reason why good defenses were able to stop Mike Leach offenses.
0:02He was coaching up here at WSU. We were at – I'm a UW guy.
0:02And for a period in there when UW was doing well and had some really strong defenses and Mike Leach's pass games
0:02were good, UW was particularly good against those pass games.
0:02Had some really good secondaries. UW was kind of secondary you for a period there, right?
0:02Sent a lot of these guys to the pros.
0:02Marcus Peters, Trent McDuffie, a bunch of dudes. Buda Baker.
0:02And if you had good secondary players and you were putting nickel and dime out there, you could stop this because you
0:02knew you were throwing every single time. And you knew what they were trying to do.
0:02And if you could man up and guard all these different weapons, like you were – anyway, the point is the misdirection.
0:02You can't just – just because that was in an era when everyone was saying you need to pass more.
0:02Now it's a little bit tricky because defenses are also focused on stopping explosive pass plays.
0:02But at that time, most offenses – and I was strongly of the mind – you needed to be passing more.
0:02They were too run heavy. A lot of the old coaches were doing things suboptimally.
0:02But there was a limit. The point I'm making about the Leach thing is even in that era, he passed so much
0:02that he was predictable enough that teams could scheme in ways that then gave them that little edge.
0:02It's always about like – the point about the Debo play I was going to make is Debo is not like super explosive anymore.
0:02But there was enough of a little bit of an edge there.
0:02Even with Evans holding that lateral, as long as he did, I thought was really a key part of the play.
0:02It helped Debo get not just the corner for the first down but all the way.
0:02You have everyone else crashing on Evans like we got to get this guy to the ground.
0:02One more step, two more steps toward Evans before the lateral comes out.
0:02Then Debo ends up having that one more step to get around the edge and score the long touchdown.
0:02It's often about that last step. Did you overcommit to like a run fit or a hole or whatever and then a
0:02player breaks in and is out the gate on the other side of the play?
0:02Like so many of the football plays come down to that like point about leverage like within a route or within a
0:02block or are you shaded to this side or that side?
0:02Like if – and then these plays and the misdirection and all of the concepts are about getting that leverage back on
0:02your side where you have this like space element going in your favor now.
0:02And you can turn the corner and you can – and I mean I just loved seeing that from Kellen Moore in
0:02this game where it's like, yeah, they're doing certain things successfully.
0:02And he knows that that's what the defense is seeing on the other sideline and they're going to adjust to it.
0:02And now he's going to do something completely different as a tendency breaker to leverage what you're going to try to –
0:02and then you're like, man, we're not even ready for you to come out under center and run the ball.
0:02And now you're running the ball effectively under center.
0:02Well, crap. Now we've got to adjust to that because you're on shotgun.
0:02Now you're going to do – now you're play actioning off of that out of under center, you know, a few plays
0:02after you were just beating us out of shotgun, more spread offense.
0:02It's throwing a lot of things at the defense, which good defense requires 11 people being on the same page.
0:02You've got to coach these guys to all do the same stuff.
0:02They've got to be able to communicate within plays.
0:02How do they all get on the same page when you're throwing so many different – they have to all read and
0:02react to different things that they're seeing. And it takes back that degree of like who is dictating.
0:02And that's what we're seeing with the good offenses right now is they're taking back who's dictating.
0:02The defense has been able to dictate with these pre- and post-nap rotations over the last like five years.
0:02And we're seeing offenses that are being intentionally like tendency breaking and shifting.
0:02And like I talked about this in the offseason that there would be an increase in – the point about the –
0:02we talked about it on the show. The point of the multi-tight end stuff was not that that was going to be
0:02the answer and everyone was just going to run multi-tight end formations every time.
0:02It was that more like sub packages and more looks and creating more scheme answers was going to be the counterpunch and
0:02was going to be the answer because you're throwing all this at all these teams.
0:02Anyway, Kellen Moore is doing it as good as anyone in the entire league.
0:02I think he creates like a lot of great opportunities for Shuck.
0:02I thought through three-quarters Shuck was playing great. I've been really hard on Tyler Shuck, but he's playing great.
0:02But it's also clear that like Moore understands how to create opportunities for him where he can on a first read make a good throw, et cetera.
0:02When they got into the fourth quarter, they stopped to have some of those answers and Shuck started to frankly not play as well.
0:02There was a key fourth down that I wrote about in the newsletter and added some visuals and stuff, but he wanted to go underneath to Olave.
0:02It was a fourth and one. It was on the left side.
0:02The Raiders dropped some defensive linemen, dropped somebody underneath the Olave route.
0:02Shuck couldn't go there. And I thought he made a pretty – it was a pretty bad read because there was only
0:02– they kept two guys in protection. There was only three routes.
0:02There was Bryce Lance above the Olave route running like a flag back to the corner.
0:02And then there was like a vertical on the other side of the field that wasn't even really in the play.
0:02And Shuck didn't have Olave and he worked all the way back to the right play.
0:02And then he basically tried to run. The pocket was kind of collapsing.
0:02But Lance was open down the field. He had a one-on-one on the flag route and was open.
0:02And I showed some visuals where – in my article that support this.
0:02But he – Shuck had time. If he had done the low-high read that he was supposed to do, he could have
0:02got that ball out there for Bryce Lance. And it was a fourth and one.
0:02The ball had to go there. Like they had – the Raiders had brought down players toward the box.
0:02He didn't have room to run because they dropped some linemen.
0:02But they also had some spies. He ends up taking a sack.
0:02He tries to kind of step up and maybe I can scramble for the one yard on fourth and one.
0:02But that was not the answer with the way the Raiders played it.
0:02The answer was they gave him a one-on-one down the field on the flag route.
0:02And Lance won. And the ball had to go vertical.
0:02And he didn't want to or he didn't get from that low to high read on the left side of the field.
0:02He tried to work all the way back to the right side of the field.
0:02And there was nothing there. That was completely locked down.
0:02Part of the reason I bring that up is the next drive they're trying to put together a last gasp drive.
0:02They're down eight. They get into a second and long.
0:02And what does Kellen Moore dial up? He dials up the exact same low to high read on the left side of
0:02the field where Velae was in the flat. And this time Alave was in the high route.
0:02And he gets like a 20-yard gain. And Alave's wide open.
0:02And shoulder shakes underneath the Velae and then goes to Alave.
0:02But I so quickly and had such quick improvement that I'm, you know, you don't know it.
0:02But I'm very confident that Moore talked to him on the sideline between drives and said, this is what the read is.
0:02This is, you know. And also we're going to go back to that.
0:02Because I know that the Raiders are going to be looking at pictures from last drive and say, we missed this exact play.
0:02And as soon as he got into a second and long and needed to get that drive jump started.
0:02Now they ended up fumbling right after that. Jawan Johnson fumbled.
0:02They ended up losing. But even that was such a cool thing to go from the thing that failed.
0:02Your quarterback misread on the fourth down the drive before to go right back to that the next drive for a crucial second long first down.
0:02And Alave's wide. I mean, they're dropping some safeties because we're in the, you know, prevent at this point.
0:02It's an eight-point game. There's not a lot. It's a desperation final drive.
0:02There's only a minute left. No timeouts. But, like, there was a guy kind of shading in towards Vele on the flat.
0:02And Shuck pumped in. And he stays, you know, held down and gives plenty of space for the throw to Alave over the top of that.
0:02And anyway, I think Kellen Moore's awesome. So I think this running back room is really appealing.
0:02I'm not that super into Kamara. But yet, like, he could still score.
0:02Like, it's a really relevant conversation because he very well could still score.
0:02And Kendrick Miller very well could, too. Like, there should be an answer here.
0:02I mean, I think the offense is super appealing.
0:02I don't know if their running game is that appealing, though.
0:02Like, their offense has been really fun through three weeks.
0:02Part of the reason it's been so fun is that they can't run the ball at all.
0:02And so they're kind of forced to just pass constantly.
0:02And they play really aggressively. And they pass very well.
0:02And so it kind of all works out. I mean, part of it has been even at the goal line.
0:02They've run the ball very little at the goal line.
0:02And they've run the ball very poorly at the goal line when they do.
0:02So what's ended up happening primarily is they just throw a lot inside the five or Shuck sneaks it inside the five.
0:02And so that's been part of the fun, like, touchdown rate for Tyler Shuck is he's getting all of the in-tight touchdowns passing or rushing himself.
0:02Because I don't think that they've had no ETN, I think, or Kendra Miller had a touchdown in week one.
0:02But they've really struggled inside the five when they have tried to run it.
0:02I'm expecting the... Actually, I'll go back on this.
0:02So week two, Kamara, which was the first week of Kamara being active, they really, like, featured him a lot in that first half.
0:02Where he ends up, like you said, he got 14 touches for 22 yards, which is a hilarious stat line.
0:02They actually deactivated Kendra Miller in that game. And they played the first half, not like a full 50-50 committee.
0:02Kamara ended up actually getting a lot more touches.
0:02If you looked at, like, the snaps, ETN was still playing more than Kamara was.
0:02But they played a lot of two-back sets. They were trying to emphasize both.
0:02It was clear, like, they had a game plan to really feature the running backs in Kamara specifically.
0:02Didn't work at all. In the second half, they went more, like, traditional one-back.
0:02They leaned on the pass more. They leaned on the receivers and tight ends more.
0:02And then coming into week three, Miller was active again.
0:02He didn't play at all in the first half, but he was active.
0:02And Kamara played far less. They did far less of the pony personnel stuff.
0:02And it was more ETN is the lead and Kamara is the secondary back.
0:02And then ETN got hurt. And then Kamara became the lead and they started working in Kendra Miller alongside him.
0:02I think that they already kind of realized, like, oh, this Kamara thing is not, like, something we want to feature.
0:02After kind of week two, it was not working.
0:02And I thought they had already made a move to scale him back.
0:02Now, they're going to have to scale him back up, obviously, because Travis ETN is now hurt.
0:02But my expectation would probably be that the offense looks a lot like it did in week one when Kamara was out,
0:02where everyone was expecting Travis ETN to be a workhorse.
0:02It was not in that game. He was splitting drives, like, almost evenly with Kendra Miller.
0:02But they were actually throwing the ball to ETN and they weren't with Miller.
0:02And then CJ Donaldson has been bizarrely playing, like, all of the long down and distance stuff all year.
0:02And I don't see a reason why that wouldn't continue.
0:02So I'm basically expecting it to look like the week one committee with Kamara in the role that ETN was in, Miller
0:02in the role that Miller was in, and then CJ Donaldson to keep doing some weird stuff.
0:02I think that there is at least potential for Miller to just take over as the early down runner if ETN misses, like, three, four, five weeks.
0:02If it's, like, a two-week injury, I don't think we have enough time for him to usurp him, see it, play it.
0:02And there's going to be passing game limitations with Miller.
0:02Like, I don't see him getting more than a couple of targets.
0:02So I think Kamara is, like, the guy you would start this week.
0:02But Travis Etchan's been pretty brutal, honestly, for fantasy this year.
0:02And despite being in a really good offense, because they've been doing a lot of splitting and because the running game hasn't
0:02been that efficient, Kamara is an inferior player. And I don't know that his role is going to be that much better
0:02than, like, what Etchan was in week one without Kamara.
0:02So I'm probably avoiding both of them this week.
0:02But I like Miller as an add. Like, if Etchan misses four-plus weeks, for instance, which seems possible, then I do think
0:02there's a decent chance that Miller can take over from Kamara, like, at least as the primary early down runner of that
0:02committee and as the goal linebacker of that committee.
0:02And that would make him, I think, potentially startable in a pretty fun offense.
0:02So, like, unless I need to start really, really badly this week, I would prefer Miller going forward versus Kamara.
0:02And I valued Miller somewhat similarly to the Dolphins' backs, which we can get to next.
0:02Because I think that, you know, the upside of the Dolphins' backs is you might have the lead this week and for the rest of the season.
0:02But I think there's some very serious limitations on the Dolphins' running backs.
0:02Whereas, for all the reasons that you kind of laid out, Saints are a really fun team.
0:02Yeah, that's great context about the ways that they're fun, though, that the running backs are not exactly super fantasy fun.
0:02I was thinking through that. Yeah, I mean, the way that you described the backfield is how I'm thinking about it, too.
0:02And I added Miller in a couple spots. But I think you're probably right.
0:02I guess the only thing that I would add a little color on my actual perspective on the backs is the way
0:02that you said, Miller, that there might not be enough time to sort of for him to win the job, for us
0:02to see it and to play it. I think that could happen this week.
0:02I think Kamara's been bad enough. I think it could happen, like, within the first half.
0:02Yeah. I think that's been, like, carrying into the second half this week where, like, if ET ends out for multiple weeks,
0:02then it may feel like Kendra Miller is a pretty viable play in week five.
0:02But, no, I think everything else you said is right.
0:02And I think Kamara is actually the one. My wife is hilariously playing fantasy football for the first time.
0:02Her family wanted it. Her little nephew wanted to do a league.
0:02And so we have a family league over there for the first time this year.
0:02And she's in it. And my older daughter's playing for the first time.
0:02I've been trying to get them to play. And my wife's, like, very competitive.
0:02So she's very into it. She loved Devon Achan's name.
0:02And so she drafted Devon Achan. She drafted most of the players off name.
0:02But then, you know, was asking me for some of the players.
0:02And I also told her I liked Brees Hall.
0:02She had a late pick. And she got him in, like, the 3-4 turn.
0:02Oh, boy. And so it was a tough week for her.
0:02So we were talking about, like, what she could do on waivers to try to address running back.
0:02And Kamara was available. So she got both Braylon Allen and Kamara ahead of, like, Kendra Miller and stuff.
0:02Because I was like, yeah, you need guys to play.
0:02And it's like a PPR league. And I'm like, that's the way that I wanted to play that from, you know, from
0:02our wife's team, which is probably the most important team that I have any kind of say.
0:02Yeah, of course. I mean, that's super important. But Kendra Miller was available as well.
0:02But like you said, for this week, for a play this week, like, when I had to do that, I was like,
0:02man, I'm going to – I just don't want the player to get zero points on her team because then she's going to be like, what the hell?
0:02So I'm like, all right, let's play Kamara. Let's go ahead with – he's going to get you some production.
0:02But yeah, Braylon Allen should play a ton. As we transition to the Jets, I'll let you kind of – I went
0:02so long on the same, so I'll let you kind of go.
0:03But one note I'll give right away is I think people – I saw Isaiah Davis get picked up a lot.
0:03I think people are expecting Isaiah Davis to be somewhat more involved than maybe I'm expecting.
0:03I think the past split with those two guys behind Hall is like an upside case for Isaiah Davis.
0:03And I think that from the perspective that this is a different coaching staff, Isaiah Davis has been active and playing special
0:03team snaps in every game, including week three. And Breece Hall got hurt, you know, not right at the very end.
0:03There was time. And Isaiah Davis did not play an offensive snap, has not played an offensive snap this season.
0:03He's been active all three games. He played 16 special team snaps with the Lions – against the Lions.
0:03And Hall went out whenever it was. I think it was at least early fourth quarter, if not late third.
0:03It was second half. I recall it being early fourth, but yeah, I could be wrong on that.
0:03It was on back-to-back green zone touches, I know.
0:03And it was on the second – It was definitely deep in the second half.
0:03Yeah. It was on the second of two green zone touches.
0:03I'm trying to find it in the game long.
0:03Anyway. Yeah. I'll confirm that in a second. Yeah, it looks like it was with 11.37 in the fourth.
0:03I just found the two greens on the sequence.
0:03That checks out. Yep. Yeah. So there was plenty of time.
0:03And there was a whole – they ended up having two more series.
0:03And the last series was a two-minute drill series.
0:03They're down 31-24. And again, Isaiah Davis did not play an offensive snap.
0:03He wasn't playing like a long down and distance two-minute roll or anything.
0:03Braylon Allen was the only other running back to play in this game.
0:03He caught some passes on that final drive. He had two catches as they were trying to create an opportunity to tie the game.
0:03They ended up getting up to the Lions' 28-yard line.
0:03And then Geno got sacked and fumbled. And that was the end of the game.
0:03But Braylon was the only guy to play. So, I mean, like I want to hear your thoughts on Braylon as a
0:03player and what you think of him as an ad.
0:03But I did want to say I think as far as usage is concerned that people are overstating or maybe are too
0:03optimistic about what Isaiah Davis might be under this new regime based on what he's been in the past.
0:03He's a fun player. He's been good. And I think he's going to play some.
0:03I absolutely think he's going to play some. But my default would be like 70-30.
0:03Like one of the heavier splits that we see with backups, it wouldn't be like 55-45.
0:03I think people think it's going to be like 55-45.
0:03No, I definitely don't think it's going to be that.
0:03So, yeah, I've been writing about this split each week because it has been meaningfully different.
0:03Last year when all three backs were healthy, the split was Hall was playing the majority of the early downs.
0:03Braylon was playing like some segment of those and was getting a higher share of short yardage carries or maybe not even
0:03a higher share of short yardage carries relative to Brees, but like a much higher share of short yardage carries relative to like first and 10 carries.
0:03And then Isaiah Davis was playing the third downs of the two-minute drill.
0:03That was last year when all three were active.
0:03This year, it's been a total difference. It's been Hall has actually played a higher share really of like the early down work.
0:03And one of the reasons for that is that Braylon has been playing all of the third downs, which has been, frankly,
0:03I think bizarre, but that's been what they've wanted to do.
0:03And then Braylon also gets like about a drive a half and he'll occasionally mix in for some carries here and there.
0:03And we've seen him get, again, like not a clear majority of the short yardage work overall, but he is more likely
0:03to be on the field for a third and one carry than he is on a first and 10 carry.
0:03I think overall, like the touches have been roughly like 75-25 or 70-30 kind of in that general vicinity for Brees Hall.
0:03Theoretically, like Braylon's been used in every type of game situation this season.
0:03So it's at least like possible that he gets like 90% of the work going forward because there hasn't been a clear
0:03game situation that's been a no Braylon Allen zone.
0:03Whereas in the past years, he was never playing in passing situations like he's been playing in this year.
0:03My expectation would be that him playing in passing situations this year is like less about they very specifically think Braylon Allen
0:03is the best like pass downs back on the team and more about we just want to simplify the rotation.
0:03Our best two running backs are Brees Hall and Braylon Allen.
0:03We want to use Brees Hall as much as we can, but we want to find some spots for Braylon to get on the field.
0:03And so this is kind of how the split has worked out.
0:03That's my read. It could be completely wrong. It's pure speculation.
0:03I think now they will kind of have a similar approach, which is like Braylon's our best back.
0:03We want to feature him. We don't want to play a running back 95% of the snaps.
0:03And so, okay, how are we going to find ways to get Isaiah Davis on the field?
0:03He's always been a completely passable like pass downs back.
0:03So I would guess that he gets that role back now with Braylon taking a ton more of the early downs.
0:03My expectation would be that essentially we see the same committee we saw previously, but with Braylon in the Brees role and Davis in the Braylon role.
0:03With the exception of I think Braylon will get all of the short yardage work, whereas Brees was splitting that with Braylon.
0:03So I actually think Braylon's role is going to be even better than Brees' role was.
0:03Before the injury. Now, I don't think Braylon's a better play than Brees because I think Brees is a much better player.
0:03So like I would rather have Hall in a slightly worse role than Allen in a slightly better role.
0:03But purely role wise, it's like almost a little bit like the old Dalvin Cook, Alexander Madison split where, you know, Dalvin
0:03Cook was a much better player than Alexander Madison.
0:03But Madison without Cook actually had a slightly better role than Cook did with Madison at times over in Minnesota.
0:03So there's a ton of those examples over times where the backup winds up just consolidating in a way the starter wouldn't because the backup was there.
0:03I mean, there's a ton of those. Yeah. It's like Kyle Monunga last year was an example of this too, where Swift
0:03missed, I think, a game or two. And Monunga got everything.
0:03So that's kind of how I view it. I view Braylon as like a mid-range RB2 with probably like a high-end RB2 quality role.
0:03I think he's fine. I'm not like the biggest Braylon talent truther.
0:03I think there's a lot of Braylon truthers out there because he looks very aesthetically pleasing.
0:03I don't think he's actually that dynamic or that shifty.
0:03I think he mostly just kind of runs with a full head of steam and plows into people.
0:03But I think he like clearly has workhorse size.
0:03He has three-down pedigree from college. He has legitimate skills as like a power back.
0:03And if you get him on the open field, he can get up a full head of steam.
0:03I think he's clearly preferred by the staff over Isaiah Davis.
0:03He can play in all game situations. He's going to dominate short yardage work.
0:03And most importantly, the Jets offense, which I think we were kind of on this all summer, is not in fact a
0:03like bottom two terrible offense in the league. It's completely fine.
0:03The skill players are, most of them are hurt right now.
0:03But the ones that are playing look really good.
0:03And some of the ones that are hurt are going to come back.
0:03And they look interesting. Gino hasn't been great. But he is like very clearly one of the best 32 quarterbacks in the NFL.
0:03Like, I mean, I would say he's one of the best 20 or 25.
0:03Like, he's fine. He can pile up the ship.
0:03He's going to have some bad throws. But he can lead a competent offense.
0:03And the offensive line is pretty effective. So I'm, of all of these running backs, like if I was in a, now
0:03Braylon was not available on any of the FFPC stuff that we play.
0:03But, you know, if you were in like a Yahoo League or an ESPN League, and I wrote up my waiver post
0:03this week, I thought Braylon was the very clear cut number one, even though you're probably only getting two or three weeks
0:03out of him versus an entire season of the Miami guys.
0:03Like, if you needed, if you were going to start Braylon, like unless you were just so stacked at running back, you would never consider starting Braylon.
0:03If you need to start, give me two to three weeks of Braylon over, frankly, the entire season of the Miami guys.
0:03Because I think he is the most plug and play guy and is like a top 15 to 18 running back play immediately.
0:03Love that. Completely agree. Yeah, my brain was like thinking of all the similar types of the second back consolidate stuff.
0:03I mean, even like you could argue Jalen Warren, like the Rico Dattel, regardless of who you say is the first was the lead back.
0:03But Jalen Warren played 96% of the snaps this week.
0:03He was questionable coming in. They had to like announce before the game that he was even going to be active.
0:03He played like every single snap because Dattel was out.
0:03There's yeah, there's been a million of those types of situations where the backup ends up consolidating.
0:03You mentioned the Mononga one's a great one. There's I had another one on my on my mind that I'm spacing on now that I'm talking.
0:03Charbonnet Walker was a classic one where we're like, you would always rather play Charbonnet without Walker than Walker with Charbonnet.
0:03For sure. Loved all your notes on Braylon and agree.
0:03That was how I did it for my wife.
0:03Just to I mentioned I had added her, but like that was the that was the top claim was Braylon even on
0:03the short term stuff, even over Ollie, even over, you know, Jalen Wright and those guys that have a little bit more
0:03long term and she had lost a chance. And she does have a third running back because she was she really liked Javante Williams name as well.
0:03So we have Javante Williams on that roster as well.
0:03So there you go. She's good shape. But no, I yeah, I love that note.
0:03And I agree. I think one of the things I was going to add about the Jets.
0:03You were talking about Gino. No, I agree with everything you were saying.
0:03He he you know, we've talked about him as a first read guy.
0:03He gets the ball out to where there are, you know, when the first reads open, when the first reads not open,
0:03he kind of just breaks down in the pocket.
0:03It's a little bit tricky. I would say that, you know, in the Seattle years, one of the big things was he was a pretty efficient passer.
0:03One of the points that we made on the Jets for people who are saying this team could be good is this
0:03is can't really be the same old Jets when it has a clearly improved skill position unit and they've lost Omar Cooper right away and lost Adonai Mitchell.
0:03As you mentioned, you know, they have some injured guys.
0:03Garrett Wilson made a catch in the middle of the field in this game.
0:03That was one of the better catches of the week.
0:03It was a really high throw on like a post over the middle that he got up for fully extended and brought in.
0:03And if it doesn't like if he doesn't go snatch that, it's probably picked off by one of the safeties.
0:03A lot of other quarterbacks who overthrow a ball like that over the middle, just get an interception on it.
0:03Instead, Gino gets a 30 yard completion. He ends up throwing a TD to Garrett Wilson in the front at the front
0:03pylon where Garrett Wilson's getting DPI'd and it looks like there's really no way Garrett Wilson had caught it and stayed in
0:03and then they end up challenging it and he did.
0:03And that was pretty awesome. Kenyon Sadiq goes, shows off the like elite vert and broad jump by doing like a, an
0:03elite vert broad dive into the end zone to catch a pass.
0:03It was a really well thrown ball behind the defender, but another sick play on a ball.
0:03That's not an easy one to bring in. There was an early game curl that Sadiq ran and just, you know, having
0:03played him a couple spots and some, like some of the deeper tight end premium, like FFPC stuff.
0:03I was pumped that he got a catch on this play.
0:03It was a little five yard curl and Gino threw it like three yards wide of him and Sadiq fully laid out
0:03and caught like a ball that was like a bullet.
0:03Not that, not that far downfield. He didn't really have a lot of time to react to.
0:03And you're like, dude, that guy's athletic as heck.
0:03It was only a five yard gain. But my point is like Gino did actually miss quite a bit of throws on this play or in this game.
0:03But as you said, like there are some really intriguing skill players on this team that have been playing really good.
0:03Garrett Wilson's ability to, to capitalize at the catch point.
0:03And we talked about how he freestyles a little bit on his routes.
0:03And he did that at one point and got criticized by Drew Brees for showing a line over the middle and Gino had already committed to the throw.
0:03And then he kind of like cut back up field.
0:03Like it was like a slant and go. He, he was trying to do and he had like a 20 yard completion
0:03and he did raise his hand right after the play.
0:03I wrote about it in signals. It was weird.
0:03It was weird that he like was adding to his route when Gino was already committing to the throw and he was open.
0:03It would have been a nice little gain if he would have just kept running where he was already running.
0:03And yet at the catch point, when there was tough plays to make, that's one of the things Garrett Wilson's incredibly good at.
0:03We talked about the one hand of TVs he's had in the past.
0:03I think we talked about it like, you know, in the preseason, we were talking about him, but he had some flashy plays in this game.
0:03Sadiq had some flashy plays. Also had a really nice catch and run in the fourth quarter for 43 yards.
0:03Like, yeah, Gino's going to have some stats when he's got guys doing that, this kind of stuff showing off Sadiq showing
0:03his athleticism like three different ways to translate into actual production.
0:03The diving catch in the end zone, even the diving curl that I mentioned.
0:03And then that catch and run where he's just off to the, like the races.
0:03He looks super fast in the open field on like an over route going up the opposite sideline gets a 43 yard gain.
0:03I mean, that was a super impressive breakout game.
0:03He's banged up for most of the game. He looks hobbled as he comes off the field.
0:03He only played, uh, I think he ran routes on like 50% of dropbacks, but super, super fun.
0:03Oh, I see. I see you, uh, moving something around on the show sheet.
0:03Cause we were going to talk about Sadiq later.
0:03Yeah. Anyway, we can just talk. We can just talk about him where we're talking about the jets.
0:03We don't have to, we don't have to get back to it.
0:03Um, the, the show sheet is a living and breathing document.
0:03Yeah. Um, yeah, I think Sadiq, I mean, I brought him up extremely favorably.
0:03How could you not? Um, I wouldn't be like based on some of the route rate limitations, they're going to get 80 Mitchell back soon.
0:03They're going to get Mason Taylor back soon. Like I wouldn't be surprised if we get an underwhelming week, like in the
0:03coming month where it's not just always going to be a top five tight end rest of season.
0:03But I think it's, it's very clear that he's going to be a major part of the offense moving forward.
0:03And even if there are some bumpy paths along, like I, I do think he's going to have more dynamic weeks like this.
0:03I think he's very clearly going to be a mainstay premier player for a long time.
0:03Like tight end production is bizarre. Like you can have weeks like Dalton Schultz had in week two, where he basically just
0:03racked up a bunch of volume that the defense gave him and he put up 12 for one 40.
0:03And it's going to be one of the highest tight end scores of the year, but it didn't change the way that I view Dalton Schultz one iota.
0:03And it wouldn't have even changed the way that I view Dalton Schultz if he was a rookie, because like he was
0:03just getting handed production for the most part over and over and over made, I think one really nice catch in there.
0:03But, um, You had a sick one handed catch up the seam in the first half.
0:03Yeah. That one was, that one was absolutely sick.
0:03Um, but Sadiq was like legitimately dynamic throughout and was creating a lot of his own production.
0:03You mentioned that six yard catch. That was one, like, I think it was his first catch of the game.
0:03Cause I remember being on the ship cast and I was watching that game because I, I mentioned that I had a pretty good DFS week.
0:03I played Gino and every one of my lineups this week and stacked them up with Garrett and with Sadiq and Hall and all different combos.
0:03And, um, and I was tracking that game pretty close.
0:03I saw that play. I was like, Ooh, like this is sweet.
0:03And that was the first catch. I think it went for six yards and then kind of just throughout the rest of the game.
0:03Like he continued to just stack these really impressive dynamic athletic plays.
0:03It's like, this is a guy that they're going to have to find ways to get involved.
0:03Like, uh, you know, every week is not going to be like this, but his arrow is pointing massively up for the rest of his career.
0:03Um, just incredibly exciting for him. Incredibly excited. That's the way to say what you just said about they have to get him involved.
0:03It's a toothpaste back in the, you can't put it back on the tube moment.
0:03Like you, you have to have, you have to have plans for him now.
0:03Yes. This, this guy's an absolute weapon. I mean, they have a good problem.
0:03The jets have, the jets have good problems right now where they have an absolute superstar and Garrett Wilson, who's going to remain the alpha of the offense.
0:03They have this incredibly dynamic mismatched piece, Kenny and Sadiq.
0:03They have 80 Mitchell, who is a, uh, like a imperfect, but like completely quality, uh, number two boundary wide receiver.
0:03And then at some point they're going to get Omar Cooper back who looked really fun in like the one quarter of
0:03action that we got to see him. Um, I mean, I don't know how they're going to figure out the road distribution for all these guys.
0:03I think it's going to create some headaches, but like we're talking about a team that was projected to score.
0:03I think the 31st or 32nd most points in the NFL this year.
0:03And now it's like, I'm talking about how are they going to find enough routes for all of these really dynamic offensive skill players?
0:03I mean, they're the arrow is pointing massively upward on the jets.
0:03They also probably going to add like three top 15 draft picks next year to this roster.
0:03Really fun stuff. Um, if you're a New York jets fan, so shout out, shout out Ron Stewart.
0:03He's the big winner, um, of this. And, and Braylon, I think is a really fun start next week.
0:03The last of these running backs before we get into some of the long view topics was the Miami running backs.
0:04And I'm guessing we see this somewhat similarly. And we had talked about it a bit because we got hit with some
0:04running back injuries on an FFPC team that we share.
0:04We ended up bidding just slightly too conservatively on the Miami running backs to add them.
0:04What, what are your expectations for Ollie Gordon, Jalen Wright moving forward as they get this season long opportunity now with, with
0:04the Von H channel for the year, unfortunately. Yeah.
0:04I mean, I think it's become almost a very popular take.
0:04Um, but, um, that all Ollie Gordon, even though he was the one that got huge bids is maybe not.
0:04I mean, I'm almost like swinging back on that a little.
0:04So the, the, the take that I've seen multiple times now on social and stuff was that like Ollie Gordon wasn't worth the really big bids.
0:04He's kind of a bigger back. He's more of a power back.
0:04He hasn't been that efficient. Um, they're not going to score a lot of TDs.
0:04So the goal line stuff isn't even that great.
0:04Uh, and, and I think that's a, probably a, uh, uh, like a legitimate concern.
0:04I actually not probably, I think that's a legitimate concern.
0:04I mentioned to you when we were going through our stuff that I might prefer Jalen Wright straight up, but I still
0:04like wanted to defer and bid Gordon slightly more, um, defer to sort of like some of the conventional wisdom and, and
0:04the fact that Gordon is like in the role right now.
0:04Now, I don't know how important this is, but you know, I watched the preseason games and write them up for preseason stealing signals.
0:04And I had written it up in the preseason that Jalen Wright, um, played ahead of Ollie Gordon.
0:04And I think preseason game two, I didn't even really, or maybe it was preseason game one.
0:04I didn't even really write about them in the other preseason games played ahead of him in one and two, and then they both rested in three.
0:04Okay. I didn't write about him in the other games.
0:04And I was looking at it cause I didn't, it must've been that I wrote it in week one.
0:04And then in week two, it was the same, but I didn't even note that.
0:04Cause I wasn't that into a, an unclear backup situation on a bad offense.
0:04Right. So, um, that's what people are concerned about now as well as people are like, the reason that Ollie Gordon and
0:04Jalen Wright were available is nobody cared about this backup situation.
0:04Um, and yet the other side of it is like, how deep is your league?
0:04What are you going to use your fab on the potential to get a guy who's going to be a starting running
0:04back and get starting volume for the rest of the season.
0:04And they're not going to like probably go acquire a running back or anything.
0:04I mean, it's, it's a possibility at some point, but they're not really in a position to do that.
0:04They would probably rather use these guys. And even though they're not great, like just startable running back points in these big
0:04tournaments, um, it's worth spending fab on like, what else are you going to spend fab on?
0:04Right. Like it's, that's sort of like the answer.
0:04And then, and I, I spent fab and got Ollie Gordon in some leagues that I didn't, I'm not into Ollie Gordon
0:04at all, but, um, I, I got him. Um, I got more Jalen, right.
0:04Because some of these teams need running back. Some of them are in really good shape at other positions and need running.
0:04And mostly the, the two that I got, Ollie Gordon had really good receivers, have a good tight end one has Kincaid one has Bowers.
0:04And it's like, they like have a good RB one.
0:04And it's like the RB two is the whole thing.
0:04And it's not that I think Ollie Gordon's going to answer that question, but like to have a playable RB two potentially,
0:04even just for the short term is worth whatever, 30%, 40% of the fab.
0:04I didn't spend a massive amount, but I ended up on one of those getting, I think Ollie Gordon, Jalen Wright and Kendra Miller.
0:04And I spent like 60% of my fab in total.
0:04I was like, Hey, you know, this is where I maybe went a little aggressive, but I had some drops and it was a deep league.
0:04And now I have some answers for the short term, at least in the RB two equation.
0:04But yeah, I, the, the, the general theory is just, you know, very similar for me to what I think the market thinks as far as right.
0:04Like he's a little bit more of an explosive back.
0:04I think there's more, the reason I'm like excited or potentially optimistic is I think there's a little bit more potential that
0:04we're talking about how coaches are thinking going to think about their players when it comes to like guys like Sadiq and stuff.
0:04I think it's certainly possible that they will think about right doing a little bit more of the H and stuff.
0:04And that's maybe part of also why he was already playing ahead of Gordon in the office.
0:04Like, and it's not just that like, that's the way they saw it in August and that's the way it's going to be.
0:04The point is like, they may have already felt that right from a scheme fit was the right backup because he's closer to what H and is.
0:04And Gordon is more of like a between the tackles power downhill runner.
0:04The other thing is that this offense is going to shift.
0:04The offense was built around Devon H and it was a lot of H and runs.
0:04It was a lot of passing day. And they were doing wheel routes in week one and throwing vertically to him was
0:04getting all these like interesting air yards. It's such a bummer for him that he's hurt.
0:04Cause he's missing out on a year where like a team built the whole ship out of him, you know, like he's
0:04the centerpiece of the offense and the focal point.
0:04And so it's kind of a bummer that he doesn't get an opportunity to actually play that season, but like, they're not
0:04probably going to do that with Jalen, right? They're probably not going to do that with Ollie Gordon.
0:04They're probably like the other guy that was vaguely interesting was Malik Washington, who was running into a lot of short areas
0:04of the field and getting a lot of short passes.
0:04Also got some vertical stuff and got two like wide running back carries in this game, like outside carries.
0:04Cause it's not really a Gordon thing, but the key thing with Gordon is like, yeah, I mean a lot of people
0:04bid on him cause he played over 80% of the snaps in this game.
0:04He scored a short touchdown early and yet he played 80% of the snaps.
0:04Cause Jalen Wright wasn't in the game and they were still like using Malik Washington as an outside runner to fit.
0:04Like the plan they had going into a game behind Ollie Gordon without a Chan when they had thought HN was going
0:04to be in the game is not going to be the plan that they have going into every single other game.
0:04Even if Gordon's the lead back behind Gordon next week, they will have a plan.
0:04Even if right, isn't able to be up cause he's banged up a little bit, they'll have a better plan behind Ollie
0:04Gordon in terms of what they will do. So anyway, the 80 plus percent snaps that Gordon got, I called it noise.
0:04I think it's clear noise. I think it's the, probably the biggest snapshot he'll play all year.
0:04I do think he has the short-term edge because he's a guy that was in the 80% snap role last week and Jalen Wright's banged up.
0:04But if Jalen Wright's plays in this game, it would not shock me at all.
0:04If he just plays more than Gordon, like they're just outright ready to play.
0:04Right. And then obviously people are going to be pretty bummed about the Gordon bids if he's not even the guy, which
0:04again gets back to this point of like, was it worth the bid?
0:04Was it worth, was it worth even rostering these guys before this week and why they were so widely available?
0:04And people would say that's why they weren't rostered is there was so much uncertainty.
0:04So anyway, my, my whole thought on it is I don't know what's going to come.
0:04I do think the offense is going to shift.
0:04And when I talked about that, the other thing I would just say is I think they're going to be more wide receiver focused.
0:04Caleb Douglas looked awesome. And then Chris bell looked really good in week three.
0:04Caleb Douglas was out. He Douglas looked awesome. And then week one really didn't do as much in week two, but like
0:04they got two third round picks at wide receiver that are rookies that have been looking good.
0:04Like they were trying to get Malik Washington going Malik.
0:04Willis has been chucking the ball. I think they're ninth in air yards, but they're 25th and pass attempts.
0:04We know that this offense is going to pass attempt limitations, but if they can be top 10 and air yards or
0:04even top half in air yards, that's notable. Douglas and bell have vertical elements to their profile that are intriguing.
0:04And so I do think they're going to be more of a drop back deep and maybe Malik will scramble.
0:04Like Malik Wills is a guy that I was, people have talked about as a late round quarterback.
0:04He has not been scoring. I was pretty skeptical of, and I think that's been right.
0:04That's skepticism. I think now he's an interesting ad in shallower leagues where he's been cut, where I think the scoring going
0:04forward almost has to be higher because the more of the offense has to be Malik Willis centric, where you will get
0:04the chunk gains if he's, if he's throwing that much vertical and you will get more scrambling when you run the routes downfield.
0:04His eight odd so far is third highest in the league.
0:04The only two quarterbacks higher are Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
0:04It's the same kind of thing. You're looking at vertical routes and then they're creating space underneath.
0:04There's not necessarily always a check down. There's a scramble and that's why the eight odd doesn't, it stays high because instead
0:04of there being a check down, it just becomes a run.
0:04And so it's like either we throw it deep or we run.
0:04I mean, it's not that simple, obviously, but that's been ways that Allen and Lamar offenses have operated in the past.
0:04And when you have that type of a quarterback profile, vertical passing plus QB mobility and rushing, it's great.
0:04Willis is nowhere near the skill sets of those two quarterbacks and he's going to be nowhere near the fantasy scoring.
0:04But if they lean into that a little bit more and lean into the wide receivers a little bit more, Willis becomes
0:04more of the focal point of the offense. The running backs become kind of afterthoughts.
0:04They're not catching passes and they're not really running a ton.
0:04And so it's the whole thing is, you know, I don't know who's going to win the running back room.
0:04And I don't necessarily know that it like super matters as you were alluding to, but my lean is sort of Jalen right.
0:04And then my lean is sort of like bump Malik Willis in your mind and bump these rookie receivers.
0:04Chris Bell, kind of a low key sneaky pickup right now.
0:04Yeah. Bell would be the most exciting guy to me because like what, what the, I think his best attribute coming out
0:04of college was the catch and run ability. And we saw kind of like the exact play that he made a name
0:04for himself on in college this week where he caught like a pretty short in breaking route.
0:04And then he just turns on the afterburners and ends up turning it into like a 40 plus yard play down the sideline.
0:04I, I don't know the exact yardage, but it was a huge chunk play on that little in breaker.
0:04Like that is, that's the kind of play that got Chris Bell, AJ Brown comps coming out of college.
0:04Now I think those are pretty lofty when you look at the overall production profile of Chris Bell, but like that specific
0:04trait is a trait that he shares with kind of early career AJ Brown, where you think about him catching those slants and you can't catch him.
0:04He's just gone. Like that's, that's what Chris Bell does best.
0:04And that's what he was able to show in that game.
0:04And if you can kind of find fun ways to try to get him into space on these shorter in breaking routes,
0:04drag slants digs, and see if you can get him peeling up a bunch of yak, maybe get him involved in the screen game.
0:04Some like that's, that's, I think a fun dynamic option for their offense.
0:04You mentioned Caleb Douglas. He's going to probably miss again.
0:04He's dealing with an ankle sprain. So I think Bell's the most fun guy here.
0:04Um, terms of the running backs. Uh, so I, I, I see it's, I think mostly similar to you, maybe with a slight more preference towards Gordon.
0:04Um, I wrote up a lot of the same stuff you did about the sort of sequencing of the preseason.
0:04So yeah, Jalen Wright was the guy who, who appeared to be the RB two in preseason.
0:04I'll also note that while it's a different head coach, Bobby Sloak was on the offensive staff last year.
0:04So there is some carryover from last year. Ollie Gordon started the year playing the second most snaps behind Devon Achan.
0:04And then Jalen Wright actually was playing more of those secondary snaps over the course of the year.
0:04So he kind of won the RB two job last year.
0:04And I had always said somewhat similarly to, um, what you just said is like, even if Ollie Gordon's playing the second
0:04most snaps beside Achan, I always perceived that Wright was more of Achan's direct backup because of the duplicativeness and skill sets
0:04that like, if you're looking for a back to play 20% of the snaps next to Achan, Gordon probably makes more sense.
0:04But that doesn't necessarily mean he would be the lead back without Achan.
0:04Um, it's a bit of like the, the, the Ty Johnson plays the second most snaps on the bills, but I'm not
0:04so sure that Ty Johnson would, would be the back to own if James Cook went down.
0:04You're looking for the skills you're looking for in a complimentary back aren't necessarily the same that you're looking for in a lead back.
0:04Um, all that being said, I, I do prefer Gordon a bit in a vacuum largely because we've talked all off season.
0:04Um, since we kind of started the show about being bearish on Achan this year, despite his, him being like one of our favorite players in the NFL.
0:04And I think us both agreeing, he's one of the most dynamic fun players in the whole league.
0:04Just this situation is really tough and like Achan's ability to be extremely dynamic.
0:04And the level of his talent kind of warranting this absurd opportunity share is kind of the only reason that he's even startable.
0:04And, and we still thought he was a pretty big fade around two.
0:04And we're tracking to probably be correct on that even before the unfortunate injury.
0:04So based on this environment, like for anyone to be particularly startable, I think you need to be more than just the lead back.
0:04I think you need to consolidate a ton of volume.
0:04And when I look at these two running back profiles, like Jalen Wright's a guy that, um, I've watched a lot of.
0:04He played at Tennessee. It's the call team that I root for.
0:04Um, he's super fun. He's super explosive. He never saw more than he never saw 150 rush attempts in a season came out.
0:04Like he came out in the same class as Marshall and Lloyd.
0:04And they were both like kind of somewhat similar backs in terms of being really explosive backs.
0:04Um, but never really earning like a major share of the team's volume with peripherals and stuff were better, but, um, they shared that trait in common.
0:04If right is the lead back, I guess I would be absolutely shocked if it's like 85% opportunity share Jalen, right?
0:04Like that, that's just never was really his profile.
0:04Um, and so if, if you're right about right, like what do you get from that?
0:04Because if you get a 60% backfield opportunity share on the dolphins, that might be below the threshold of like startability.
0:04Whereas Gordon, um, he was a Doak Walker award winner, had a massively productive season at Oklahoma state in year two.
0:04And then really fell off in year three. I thought he was kind of similar to Braylon Allen coming out in terms
0:04of a profile I didn't love, but where I really respected like the ability to display a massive workhorse volume at a
0:04very young age and at a real program. And I do think he is the better pass catching back than right.
0:04I think he's clearly like kind of the more situated goal line back than right.
0:04And I think he is the one who has a volume consolidating profile.
0:04So if Gordon was able to separate, I mean, my guess is it's going to be a committee regardless, but if Gordon
0:04was to be the one who really gets a stranglehold on the job, I do think he has the type of profile
0:04that wouldn't stun me if he was getting that 75, 80% opportunity share.
0:04And I think that's kind of what you need.
0:04So I prefer Gordon just because I think that the world where he's the lead back has a higher like workload ceiling to it.
0:04But if I had to guess, I think it'll be like right probably leading a committee in which both are largely like very bad flex plays.
0:04But so I agree with everything you're saying, but I don't know if I agree with the conclusion because I guess I do think that right specific usage.
0:04And touches could be more interesting even at a 60%, you know, snapshot.
0:04You had said at the 60% snapshot that maybe that wouldn't even really be playable on Miami.
0:04I don't think it would be for Ollie Gordon because most of that's just going to be like carries between the tackles that are like low value touches.
0:04But if Wright's getting the edge rushes that have more potential for explosive runs and then more importantly to me, some passing
0:04game work, which is not really like his whole thing.
0:04But like if they still want to do some of the like wheel routes and stuff they were doing with A-chan that
0:04they obviously have in the playbook, like are they going to have Ollie Gordon run those vertical downfield routes?
0:04Are they going to? Probably not. I don't know if Wright's going to do that either though.
0:04Yeah, maybe he's not either. Maybe a more explosive space player for sure.
0:04Maybe it's more Malik Washington. And Gordon actually had a good receiving profile when he was like the Doak Walker.
0:04You know, you were talking about it may actually be that Gordon ends up like stylistically.
0:04I would have said it was definitely not Ramondre Stevenson last year, but he was second.
0:04Gordon's a lot like Ramondre Stevenson in terms of like a big non-dynamic pass catching back.
0:04Yeah. And he's the one who ended up doing that with the Patriots last year.
0:04He had the second most receiving air yards among running backs last year.
0:04Some of that was because Henderson kind of played himself off the field.
0:04And we've talked about like I thought some of what Ramondre ended up getting as far as vertical targets last year was like probably intended for Henderson.
0:04But I mean, yeah, it's not impossible for a guy like Aldi Gordon to do that.
0:04So it'll be interesting to see. But yeah, that's I agreed with everything you said, but I would just say that like
0:04there's a world in my head where if Wright does lead a committee is 60% or whatever.
0:04The touches are valuable enough, but we would we'd have to see him do some stuff that maybe he hasn't quite done.
0:04So, yeah, I don't know. I think it's a good point.
0:04And I think it's a tricky spot is what we're ultimately getting to.
0:04It is a tricky spot. Like, I mean, I think he would get more of the Achan touches.
0:04I agree with that. I guess like how many points did you think Achan was going to score this year?
0:05Because like I think he was going to score like 13 points per game.
0:05And so if you're giving Wright. That's a huge part of it.
0:05Right? Like so if you're giving Wright. If I was fading a dynamic player like Devon Achan in this situation and he
0:05had all the work and I was still like didn't want to pay for it.
0:05But the difference is we had to pay a really high cost for him.
0:05And this is a way to work up. This is fat.
0:05Oh, yeah. So, I mean, from like a league.
0:05Yeah. From a strategy perspective. And I didn't even touch on this.
0:05I should have. I mean, I. I was really kind of I was on the side of like don't really blow your fab on these guys.
0:05In like home leagues where there are a lot like in a lot in a home leagues.
0:05Braylon Allen was regularly available on waivers and players like Braylon Allen who are very clear.
0:05Number two is would be plug and play options.
0:05Like if you're in a league like that where that guy's on waivers.
0:05To me, it's kind of save your fab for that quality of play because we're probably going to get more running back
0:05injuries at some point over the season. But in the FFPC formats that we're talking about, none of those guys are on waivers.
0:05Right? The guys who are the obvious number twos who you'd be really excited to slot into a lineup.
0:05They're all drafted. They're all on rosters anyways. So you're only getting like I feel really uncomfortable about this running back ads on waivers.
0:05And so I don't know how many better running back ads you're going to get over the course of a season in
0:05an FFPC format than these Dolphins backs. So I was happy being reasonably aggressive on running back needy teams there.
0:05I agree with that. Yeah, I just think like the thing that I've tried to emphasize all year and that you have
0:05as well is that the fate of Achan never had anything to do with Devon Achan.
0:05We think he's one of the best players in the National Football League.
0:05And yet, I think he was probably on track to be like a mid to low end RB2 this year.
0:05And so if Wright gets two-thirds of what Achan was getting opportunity share-wise and is nowhere near the quality of player that
0:05Devon Achan is, it's like, what are we getting out of that?
0:05Like, I think it's going to be like nine to ten points a game as kind of like a ceiling, which is
0:05like, you know, if you're in an FFPC league and, you know, you're staring at like, Rashad White is your RB2, it's
0:05like, yeah, I'd probably rather take the shot on nine to ten points a game from Jalen Wright.
0:05That's fine. So I definitely think it's spot dependent, but I get the upside case for sure.
0:05Totally. So that was the long short view. Long view topic today, we wanted to talk about young players going in different directions.
0:05We started last week talking a little bit about some of the dead zone backs.
0:05I don't know that we talked about Bachel Tootin a ton, and that was one of the names that I floated to you.
0:05Wanted to talk a little bit more about. We have a couple of them on the list here.
0:05Tootin and Travion Henderson, who I think we maybe talked about a little bit.
0:05He had a really big week two, obviously, or he had a long touchdown run, and then it was actually quite bad after that.
0:05And we talked a little bit about this, and we were talking about how we had kind of framed it similarly in terms of what we expected.
0:05Week three to be, and that was basically the way it was with the Patriots.
0:05Stevenson played more snaps. They were one apart in touches.
0:05I think it was 10 to 9. The Patriots offense being so poor, not ideal for the backfield to be fantasy relevant.
0:05It was pretty close between the two until Stevenson started getting going a little bit in the third, and then he got to play a little bit more.
0:05And so I think it maybe even would have tilted Henderson's way had Stevenson not started to kind of earn more.
0:05And we kind of said this is going to be fluid.
0:05Who's playing well? Henderson had another tough game, just like he did for most of week two after the long touchdown run early.
0:05And I know you do a lot of charting with the backfield stuff.
0:05I brought him up, wanted to talk about him again this week.
0:05And like I said to you in the text, I was like, I mean, is he just bad?
0:05Like a lot of people say that he's bad.
0:05A lot of people say he can't read the holes, that he isn't patient enough.
0:05You talked about it last week. I think you called Ramond J.
0:05Stevenson a more mature runner in that regard. I kind of wanted to check back in with you on what you saw on Henderson in week three.
0:05We have Henderson, I think, on two of our three teams, main events together that we're doing.
0:05I keep forgetting he's on the one with Lawrence because we have other good players.
0:05Yeah, we don't have to think about playing him.
0:05The other one, he unfortunately just got promoted because we have Brees Hall on that team.
0:05We got to start him. But there's teams that I don't think on our teams we even really have a discussion because
0:05we have to start him on the one. And we sort of, it's easy to bench him on the other.
0:05He's a fascinating one because it's like, if there's good options, I'm playing the other options over him.
0:05And if there's not, I have to play Trayvon Henderson because he has the ability to, we know, to hit big plays, explosive plays.
0:05Like you're not going to bench him for a really inferior play.
0:05But I kind of expect like five points or some five points.
0:05Like I don't have a lot of optimism right now for a lot of scoring.
0:05I wanted to get your, like, again, you write the great hitchhiker's guide.
0:05And I wanted to get your like running back scouting report on him.
0:05And also Tootin. We, like Tootin was like, I just, I wanted to be more clear on where Tootin's at.
0:05I'm watching him and I love, I'm loving what I'm seeing.
0:05They're also playing a ton of other running backs.
0:05They're playing three other running backs. Like I make my visuals and I usually don't put more than three running backs in the visuals.
0:05But like three other guys are getting meaningful volume.
0:05I have to do four, four backs into the visuals.
0:05I was reading my buddy Sean Siegel's piece over at Rotovis last week.
0:05And he, he joked that, you know, after week two, that the Jaguars cared more about, you know, sticking to some weird
0:05running back split than winning the game. Because he maybe didn't joke.
0:05Maybe it was being dead serious. Like joking is probably the wrong way of putting that.
0:05But he was essentially saying, look, they played him 55% of the snaps or whatever.
0:05And then the other 45% of the snaps, you have an inferior player on the field.
0:05What are you doing? Like Tootin looks awesome. He's, he's creating yards through tackles, through contact.
0:05Both of these guys have gotten criticized for not reading the right hole and not like playing the running back position.
0:05Right. And it's not something that's like a huge film trait in my tool bag.
0:05I don't spend a lot of time looking at the, I famously refuse to look at the end zone angle for any running back highlights.
0:05I only look at the sideline view, especially for Keaton Mitchell.
0:05Tootin, Henderson, what are you seeing in your charting of these guys and sort of what like charting or however we put it, you're watching them closely.
0:05I always think the charting thing's funny. It's like, oh, I charted all the, it's like, I mean, a lot of them are getting like 12 carries.
0:05It's like, what did you see on the 12 carries?
0:05Like what did I didn't chart them? I watched them and I took notes and then I wrote about them.
0:05Exactly. Exactly. Like it's, and it's like, you're like, like on like six of the 12 carries, it's like the play wasn't
0:05there or there wasn't, you know, it's like, there's not a lot to even take from it.
0:05So it's like, what did you see on the key reps for these guys this week?
0:05Yeah. I mean, so first off they played the, the Patriots played the Jaguars run defense, which is one of the best in the NFL.
0:05I think even the best in the NFL, they play a lot of bare fronts.
0:05They have good interior guys. And so most running back efficiency against this front is usually quite poor.
0:05So I think it's like a tough week to be especially harsh, especially in the context of Patriots offense being completely like untenable as a whole.
0:05But like, I would say, I just saw a continuation of what I saw in week two.
0:05And in what I saw, like as kind of the negatives of the profile in year one, which is just like a lack of rhythm, feel, patience.
0:05There was one rep that really stuck out to me where I think it, I think that the play is called dart
0:05where, cause typically when you see a polar, it's usually the guard and that's power.
0:05Um, but it was kind of, I, it was the tackle pulling and I believe they use your foot of that as dart.
0:05Anyways, the point is Henderson basically treated it as a race with his right tackle to see who could get to the
0:05hole first, but that's not a race you want to win because then you get to the linebacker before your tackle is there to block the linebacker.
0:05And Henderson did win the race. He got to the linebacker first, which meant he just got instantly tackled as his right
0:05tackle was trying to be like, Hey, actually I want to get to the hole first so that I can block the guy so that you can run.
0:05And it was like kind of a comical rep where there's this tiny little hole between the left tackle and the tight end.
0:05And it's like Henderson and his right tackle sprinting to get to the hole first and Aluakon just waiting for both of them.
0:05And then Henderson getting like essentially pinned against his own guys.
0:05And it's like, if you just kind of waited a second and let Morgan Moses get into the gap, like, I don't
0:05know if he would have had much room to run because Henry was getting squeezed a little bit too, but it would
0:05have looked more like a real run. Whereas it was just kind of a record scratch moment where you're like, wait, what's going on here?
0:05And it was like, oh, cause he's just, he's like trying to beat his tackle into the darn hole.
0:05It was crazy rap anyways. And it's just like stuff like that.
0:05I'm just like, are you processing the game? Well, you know, or are you just kind of, this is the hole I'm going to run through.
0:05I'm going to get the ball. I'm going to run as fast as humanly possible directly into that hole.
0:05And I mean, I, I get it. Like I, um, you know, I've never, I've never played competitive football.
0:05And like, if I was running back, I would probably make disastrous decisions all the time.
0:05But like that, that was a really weird rep.
0:05Um, and it was kind of indicative of other weird Henderson reps.
0:05And I would say it's just kind of, there's a lot of plays where there was nothing there, but I don't see the creativity.
0:05I don't see the feel. Um, I, I, I'm holding him to like a much higher standard in year two.
0:05And then I guess I did in year one, like in year one, most of my Henderson commentary kind of like, there
0:05are some issues or some imperfections that was a really strong college prospect profile.
0:05There's also some huge positives. He's super explosive. You know, I'm expecting him to fix the imperfections and keep the positives and
0:05like play up to that prospect profile over time.
0:05You start getting into year two, you've had the full off season to get accustomed to the playbook to the national football league.
0:05Like I would like to see more of those negatives mitigated over time.
0:05Um, and I don't really. And it's tough because he's in a spot where Ramondre Stevenson lost a lot of goodwill.
0:05I feel like that he had by playing not that well in week one and then instantly losing a fumble in week two.
0:05You have an offense where Drake may is coming off this great season.
0:05He now looks awful. They lose AJ Brown, the first game of the year.
0:05They're like crying out for someone to be a dynamic playmaker.
0:05There seems like the featured player of their offense right now is Mack Hollins.
0:05Um, and it's a spot where like, I'd really love to see Henderson step up and put on the cape and be
0:05like, no, I'm going to be the key player in this offense.
0:05And outside of that one really nice touchdown run, it just hasn't happened often enough.
0:05So, um, you know, I don't know if he is like bad, but he's, he's deeply flawed and he doesn't seem like he's making enough progress.
0:05It's, um, he, he of course played the Jaguars this week.
0:05So when I'm like watching the film on these guys, I'm watching him and Tootin back to back alternating two guys from the same class.
0:05And like, yeah, I, I think I wrote like, it was extremely apparent which of these second year players is currently a better running back.
0:05Um, and I think it's Tootin by like a pretty wide margin.
0:05Um, Tootin had just like run after run that I thought were really, really impressive.
0:05Um, there was a sequence where he had two straight carries that I think were inside zone carries and like one of
0:05them, he was kind of patient and he like stepped up, stepped up, followed his read through the hole, got, I don't
0:05know, seven or eight yards, like through the lane that was designed.
0:05And the next one kind of immediately sees that the defense is reading it.
0:05They're flowing into the run. There's open backside and he makes a super decisive cut back out to the left, picks another
0:05chunk of like seven or eight yards. And it's like, he made the correct read both times handled the run completely differently.
0:05Um, was patient and one when he needed to be, he was decisive.
0:05And the next one, when he needed to be bounced, when he needed to bounce stayed within the design of the play
0:05when he needed to, it's like, this is like, this is like the processing stuff.
0:05This is the instinctual stuff that you get really excited about seeing in a year or two back on top of the
0:05very obvious physical gifts that he has where he's got the four, three speed.
0:05He's been one of the top tackle breakers this year, like just really, really impressive stuff.
0:05I, I think he's legitimately a budding star in this league and is like fulfilling kind of everything that we were excited about for him.
0:05And then I'll note on the usage stuff that I think it was more encouraging than it looks like.
0:05I know that we kind of made the same point about price last week for saying, oh, it's more encouraging than it looks like.
0:05Then he goes ahead and fumbles away, um, that take, but he played, um, 21 of the first 28 snaps in this game.
0:05So that takes him right up until the two minute drill, the first half at that point, it was 21 snaps for him.
0:05Uh, like Quint Allen played like the third down and longs and then, uh, Rodriguez and Abdullah played, I think two or three snaps each.
0:05So it was like very clearly tuned. It was really weird that it was four running backs, but if it was 21 to seven, no one would care.
0:05Like he played 75% of the first 28 snaps.
0:05Then LaQuint Allen played the two minute drill, um, which I expect is just going to be a thing.
0:05And then the second half Tootin comes out, he gets carry and then he gets a 15 yard catch and he kind
0:05of got brought down hard at the end of the 15 yard catch.
0:05Um, we were tracking it really closely on the ship cast because we had Tootin in like two of our pickums and
0:05Tootin didn't play for the rest of that drive.
0:05And there was a Jaguars reporter saying, oh, he looked like he got shaken up at the end of the catch, but
0:05he looks fine and he has his helmet on, but it looks like they're just going to keep him out for the rest of the drive.
0:05The rest of that drive ended up being 13 plays.
0:05And that's, um, so Chris Rodriguez got most of that drive.
0:05The other backs worked in. And then, uh, the only other drive in the third quarter was a one play drive where
0:05C-Rod got the touchdown after Drake made through interception.
0:05They come back in the fourth quarter, Tootin's back in.
0:05That ends up being the drive that he gets the touchdown on after Trevor Lawrence went down with the one.
0:05And then they have one final drive, which is only three or four plays.
0:05It was all Amir Abdullah running out the clock.
0:05So he ends up with like a 48% snap rate, but I think that he was tracking for a 65-ish percent snap rate.
0:05He just happened to get banged up on a 15 play drive after two plays and they were up by a ton of points.
0:05And so they kind of let C-Rod go. Watching the flow of the game, I'm pretty confident that there was no chance
0:05that the first drive of the second half, that their plan was Tootin's going to play the first two plays and then
0:05he's not going to play for 13 plays after that.
0:05That wasn't how they were operating at all for the rest of the first half.
0:05So I would project that he will see a season high snap rate this week if the game script isn't super weird.
0:05And if he maintains health throughout the game, I think we'll see him in the 65%-ish range where he's going to play
0:05the vast majority of early down snaps. And he's not going to play like third and longs.
0:05He's not going to play the two-minute trail, I don't think quite yet.
0:05But I think he is pretty much iced C-Rod and Abdullah for the most part on early downs.
0:05And I'm really, really excited about how he looks and how I think the coaching staff is starting to respond, even if
0:05it's taking like a little bit longer maybe than we'd want it to.
0:05That's awesome for him. I didn't notice that, but I'm excited to see if that comes to fruition and we get a big week four from him.
0:05And then your note on Travion I was just laughing at about the rep in the holes.
0:05I mean, I guess we just have to hope that there's nobody there because this thing of running as fast as he
0:05can straight downhill sometimes leads to the end zone.
0:05It does. If it does, sometimes it does. I mean, he is.
0:05Like, that's the thing. It's tough for me to talk about Travion because one of my biggest beliefs is that running back
0:05film bros are way too dismissive of explosiveness because it's like they kind of only grade on the decision-making process, I feel like, sometimes.
0:05And so a lot of times people roll their eyes like, oh, well, whatever.
0:05That was unblocked. Who cares if he made a 60-yard touchdown?
0:05I'm like, no, it actually does matter because a lot of running backs would turn a perfectly blocked run into a 12-yard gain.
0:05And the fact that Henderson turns those 12-yard gains into 50-yard touchdowns really matters.
0:05It's just like, I wish that that wasn't the only plus trait that we see consistently is converting perfectly blocked runs into touchdowns.
0:05Like, I wish that we could see more. And I wish that they would use it more in the receiving game.
0:05I'll just, like, I don't know whether that's a Henderson isn't repping well.
0:05I don't know whether that's a Josh McDaniels issue.
0:05But it seems to me that based on his profile and based on, you know, how fast he is in the open
0:05field and how dire their playmaker situation is, like, that would be one way that I think you could use Henderson is,
0:05like, why don't we just throw him four screens a game and, like, get him on some wheel routes and try to feed him?
0:06Like, why don't they use him like RJ Harvey in Denver?
0:06You know? Who I think is also, like, an imperfect back.
0:06But they're throwing to him five, six, seven times every game to take advantage of his, like, open field, like, raw athleticism.
0:06I don't know why we can't do that with Trevion Henderson.
0:06But they don't seem like they're doing that. He has one target this year.
0:06Yeah. That part of it is weird. That part, I mean, it's, I think it's, well, I don't know.
0:06Maybe it's that the pass blocking so bad that as soon as he's in the huddle, every defense is, like, we're going to blitz.
0:06We're going to try to make him pass block.
0:06Yeah, maybe. I don't know. Like, there's no way he's worse at pass blocking than RJ Harvey.
0:06Like, I don't know. Figure it out, I guess, is what I would say.
0:06But seeing how Henderson plays in other aspects, I don't want to, like, just put all the blame on Josh McDaniels.
0:06I think he's, I think Henderson's earned some of his own blame.
0:06But I definitely think that the answer can't be zero targets.
0:06I don't understand how that's happening. But it is, it is what it is.
0:06It is. The other running backs we wanted to talk about, two earlier round running backs, two recent first round picks, going in different directions.
0:06As you noted, we got Jeremiah Love, who looks incredible.
0:06We got Omari and Hampton, who's a concern. You were talking about the Hampton Mitchell thing.
0:06I alluded to it in the intro. So, and I want to hear your thoughts on that more.
0:06I guess, so, I guess I would say that I'm still, I'm not, a lot of people are very pessimistic on Omari and Hampton this week.
0:06And I think it's very warranted to be pessimistic on Omari and Hampton this week for obvious reasons.
0:06He got much, much more limited work in week three.
0:06It was mostly the stuff, as I was watching, I was like, this is what Jacob was talking about.
0:06It was mostly the stuff kind of between the tackles that we're talking about with like, like might be the concern with Ollie Gordon.
0:06And then anything that was like a stretch outside type run, these plays that you were saying that he struggles with, we're
0:06seeing a lot more of Keaton Mitchell on some of those plays.
0:06He ran pretty effectively, eight carries for 52 yards.
0:06Hampton gets 15 carries. He only gets 56 yards in this game.
0:06Mitchell also gets three targets in the game, gets one in the green zone, the, the, like the lower red zone, right?
0:06Gets a jet motion tip pass from the one.
0:06And there's an end that actually gets some, some penetration.
0:06And Mitchell does a really good job to side to step that play in the backfield and, you know, make the play
0:06a success and go and score on a, it's a one yard reception.
0:06Ultimately the other times I tried to get him the ball in the past game, get blown up immediately.
0:06And that's been, that's happened in multiple other games.
0:06He winds up with negative five receiving yards and a touchdown over his three receptions.
0:06He's had some tosses and some other plays that have gone for substantial negative yardage as well.
0:06They did, like I said, get him going to the edge on the eight carries.
0:06You said that Mitchell was, you would be like actively buying him.
0:06And I was really into Keaton Mitchell in the off season.
0:06And when I was doing my projections and all of that stuff, I thought he'd have a real role.
0:06He's had a role. They're trying to get him going.
0:06He has 11 touches in week three, obviously like there's some positive stuff there, but as somebody who was coming at, I
0:06mean, all these things we talk about it from like a Bayesian perspective, you have your priors and you're updating them.
0:06As somebody was coming at this from a perspective that Keith Mitchell was going to be awesome.
0:06And Mike McDaniels offense and that Mike McDaniels offense was going to be good to be frank.
0:06I'm not that thrilled about what I've seen through three weeks with Keith Mitchell.
0:06I'm, I'm actually a little bit concerned. He doesn't have a ton of explosive plays.
0:06He has 85 rushing yards in three games. He's got 10 receiving yards.
0:06It doesn't even have a hundred total yards over three consecutive, you know, games.
0:06They are using him more. It does feel like it's trending upward.
0:06But the reason that I'm saying this is as far as Omarion Hampton's concerned and this read that like Mitchell's on the,
0:06on the arrow up, which is a case that you made beforehand.
0:06And I want to shout out that you were right about the direction this could go because I'm seeing it everywhere.
0:06Now I'm seeing it at like the major places.
0:06I was on CBS where I used to work.
0:06I have a league over there and saw that they're talking about Keith Mitchell's role growing on, you know, on the sidebar and stuff.
0:06And I have him on that roster and I'm like, you know, that's awesome that they're, you know, those guys are promoting
0:06this as well within the context of the fact that this is now a pretty universal take because he was better than Hampton in week three.
0:06I feel like it's being overstated a little bit again, from the perspective that Mitchell's eight for 52 rushing yard line was
0:06like more or less the most efficient thing that we've seen from him.
0:06He is, you know, he had a five for 24, 4.8 yards per carry in week two.
0:06The week one was only four carries for nine yards, but it was only four carries.
0:06So like for the season, he's at 5.0 yards per carry.
0:06Like it is solid and he's getting more work and there is efficiency there, but there has been some plays that have been blown up.
0:06And I guess my point is just like, it's not like the keep Mitchell stuff is working so clearly.
0:06And so obviously that that's again, he doesn't even have a hundred total yards in three games.
0:06Like it's not like it is a, an immediate and an obvious keep Mitchell is a superstar.
0:06And he's taking all of this from Omari and Hampton.
0:06Omari and Hampton is still a first round pick a year ago.
0:06He's in year two. He still has a strong profile overall.
0:06He may not be a good fit for this run scheme, but there's an anti-fragile element to draft capital and those things
0:06that I'm seeing Omari and Hampton talked about. Like he is somebody that if we were redrafting for today, people would take in the double digit rounds.
0:06And I guess for me, it'd be like round five.
0:06Like he's lost some rounds of value, but he'd be a dead zone.
0:06He back. He'd be in the two, like where we were taking tooting on like profile, but uncertainty about role, maybe around four.
0:06Cause maybe I'd be more confident that he's actually going to get work.
0:06Cause they, they, what the other thing they did in week three was they used more Camani Vidal.
0:06Cause they're like, we want to get him going.
0:06And so that's how I'm seeing it with, with Hampton.
0:06But I, I have a lot of Hampton. I don't feel great about that.
0:06We talked about it. Like after week one, I didn't feel great about it.
0:06Cause I wound up with, you know, Hampton with you.
0:06And I wound up with, with Sean, like because of where we were landing in some draft spots, more with Sean than I wanted.
0:06And with you, my two main co-managers. And I'm like, I'm overexposed to Hampton, especially relative to where I would have wanted my exposures.
0:06Like personally, I did obviously have Hampton ranked very highly as well.
0:06And I had him as a target, but I wanted things to be spread.
0:06I also have multiple shares of Walker. I've talked about this because of where I was at.
0:06I have a lot of Walker too. I have a chase Brown share.
0:06I have gente share. Like, you know, they're like, I had a lot of teams back in that range.
0:06I have multiple seating lamb shares and Trey McBride and all the, you know, like I got a lot of late round picks and yada, yada, yada.
0:06But I'm, so maybe I'm seeing it through rose colored glasses.
0:06Cause I need Hampton to be good. But I guess I feel like this idea that has week three snap share is
0:06anything other than like the rock bottom is what's weird to me because people seem to think that this is going to
0:06be like predictive or it may even go down further.
0:06And Keaton Mitchell is just going to be the starter.
0:06And it's like the, the, like, I love Keaton Mitchell, but I, I do think he's limited in some capacities.
0:06One of the big things I wrote about when I wrote about in this off season is he had more of a
0:06workhorse profile than I think people realized in college.
0:06And there's more to the profile than people realize as far as what the overall package actually is.
0:06And yet again, they used more of it all in this game because, and then Mitchell has an ankle thing now, like
0:06he's, he has had some health issues at the NFL level.
0:06He is more of a change of pace, explosive play player where, you know, my big case when I wrote him up
0:06in the off season was there could be standalone value.
0:06There could be 10 touches or could be what we saw in week three, eight carries and three receptions.
0:06That's what I was visualizing with the potential for a touchdown with the potential for some greens out.
0:06I'm a, I'm super annoyed. Cause I, I bet Keaton Mitchell, Keaton Mitchell, anytime TD is like a small amount, both in weeks one and two.
0:06And then I like forgot to do it in week three.
0:06And then he finally scored a touchdown. I'm like, it's like eight to one, like, come on, whatever.
0:06I'm probably not eight to one, four to one, five to one something.
0:06I wish I would have had a Keaton Mitchell anytime.
0:06But of course, like I've been betting like high lemon every week too.
0:06And of course I still bet lemon this week, but of course the one week I feel like I failed to get Mitchell's bed in there.
0:06Anyway, I feel like what I felt about Keaton Mitchell was reasonable and that he's doing really well.
0:06And he's, you know, close to hitting on it.
0:06I, I though see a limitation to how much of this backfield he takes over.
0:06I think it's there in the Vidal usage. And I think it's there.
0:06And again, this anti-fragility aspect to the fact that Hampton is a former first round pick.
0:06And even if he doesn't really fit, they still want to get him work and they got him work.
0:06I mean, they were just calling different run plays, trying to call ones that fit his style or whatever more, but 15
0:06carries for him in this game, even as he's running in effectively.
0:06And arguably is part of the reason they lose this game is they give 15 carries to Amari and Hampton.
0:06Cause they had some of, they really did not capitalize on the five Buffalo bills turnovers in this game.
0:06They wind up losing a game that they want a five to one turnover differential and Buffalo's offense being what it is.
0:06I mean, just to get that many turnovers. I mean, there's only like 10 possessions in a game.
0:06I don't know how many they had. And it looks like both teams had 11 official possessions.
0:06The chargers just basically kneeled out the half. The bills are running out the clock at the end of the game.
0:06Both had basically 10 real possessions and five turnovers on 10 possessions.
0:06And you don't win that game. Like you've got to go win that game.
0:06You're Owen too. Like this is your chance to come back and get to one and two, if you're the chargers.
0:06And they were so inefficient on offense. And a huge part of that is you get 15 carries tomorrow.
0:06And Hampton. So I see the concerns and having said all of that about the concerns and about keep and showing all that stuff.
0:06I still think it's like borderline crazy to assume that Omarion Hampton's just not going to be a part of the offense going forward.
0:06So am I too optimistic on Hampton? Like, am I visualizing this wrong?
0:06Part of the reason I wouldn't draft him in round four is like, I don't know if I would draft any running
0:06back in round four, because to me, it's like most of the running backs that were going in that group, like are
0:06either guys like tootin to me or Irving to be that if like separated where I would want to draft them a
0:06lot higher, or guys that, you know, like David Montgomery or whatever, where it's like, oh, this isn't going to work.
0:06And then I wouldn't be interested in drafting them at all.
0:06And I mean, Hampton, I think is maybe the most polarizing of this kind of player in terms of not really knowing
0:06how it's going to work out for the rest of the season.
0:06I mean, right now, like snapshot and time analysis, their running back room is essentially being deployed the same way that like
0:06Denver's is where Marion Hampton is basically in the JK Dobbins role.
0:06Keaton Mitchell's in the RJ Harvey role and Kamani Vidal's in the Tyler Bidet role.
0:06And like, you know, if that's how it stays all season and a Marion Hampton is like basically a JK Dobbins level play, like that's really bad.
0:06I could see it going in very different directions though.
0:06I mean, I, the biggest issue of Marion Hampton has right now is like beyond the scheme fit, like rushing efficiency stuff.
0:06He ran six routes this week on 38 dropbacks.
0:06So like, that's completely untenable if that holds. Cause I mean, that's basically a zero level involvement in the passing game.
0:06Keaton was the guy getting the early down passing usage.
0:06And then Kamani Vidal, you know, you mentioned his snaps being up.
0:06Most of that was in passing situations. He ran 13 routes on 17 snaps.
0:06He only got two touches. So like that has to change in a massive way for Hampton and really less about the
0:06Vidal, like basically like playing the Quint Allen type snaps.
0:06It's more about Keaton's being the guy out there for early down receiving work.
0:06And then the biggest issue overall, and why it's hard for me to get too excited about Mitchell, even as much as
0:06he's improved relative to Hampton is, you know, that's sort of my, my take after week one, um, which I appreciate.
0:06And a big reason for that take though, in week one was I felt like Mitchell stock was rising relative to Hamptons,
0:06but my expectation for the offense as a whole was that they would bounce back from how bad they looked week one.
0:06And so I felt like, okay, if Mitchell's rising relative to Hampton, but this offense as a whole meets what my expectations
0:06are, then Mitchell could be a smash. My expectations for the offense have recalibrated downward substantially after seeing two more weeks of
0:06them continuing to look like a total mess. And so, you know, my expectation for, if you had told me preseason that
0:06Mitchell's going to carve out this level of role in what I thought would be a top five or at least top
0:0610 offense, and an offense that specifically wanted to emphasize the running backs a lot, I would be ecstatic.
0:06But now we're getting kind of the dream role for Keaton Mitchell, but like the pie of the offense is a lot
0:06smaller and less inspiring than I thought it would be.
0:06And they're not emphasizing the running backs in the way that I thought they would be.
0:06Like, even though Keaton is getting, I think the most interesting past game role, like you mentioned, he got three targets this week.
0:06There were five targets total to running backs on 38 dropbacks.
0:06Um, that's not, you know, what we were envisioning.
0:06I think it was. Yeah. Like they're, they're basically not throwing the back.
0:06Well, actually, if you count Alec Ingold, there were nine.
0:06I mean, he's the one getting targets right now.
0:06That was absurd. Well, that was in response to the lack of tight ends.
0:06They were using Ingold. They went to a lot more 21 personnel instead of 12.
0:06I mean, they were already playing a ton of 21 personnel.
0:06I wrote, I think my quote in the Checkers guide this week is that Alec Ingold's presence is a limiting factor for
0:06the tight ends, the running backs and the chargers.
0:06Um, which like, I don't know what the point of him is.
0:06I mean, I like, I don't know Alec Ingold.
0:06I hope he's a great guy. I'm so tired of watching Alec Ingold.
0:06He lines up. I hope he's a great guy.
0:06This is tangent time. He, he lines up five to six yards behind the line of scrimmage on all these plays.
0:06He runs 17 different motions that don't do anything.
0:06No one's threatened vertically by him because he's a fullback who lines up six yards behind the line of scrimmage.
0:06He misses blocks. He misses blocks routinely. He is like getting targets for some reason.
0:06I don't understand why he is so big of a part of this offense.
0:06He, he is like, they are playing 10 and a half on 11 at best.
0:06Every single time he's in the game. It's infuriating to me.
0:06I don't understand why they're using him. I don't understand how they're using him.
0:06I like, I genuinely can't think of a play that I've watched from the chargers this year where I felt like they
0:06would be better off using Ingold in this priority role they've made for him versus just substituting him for another tight end
0:06or wide receiver or playing two halfbacks. Like I, I, I, his usage has been incomprehensible to me.
0:06Um, it's so bizarre. I don't know what he's adding.
0:06I don't understand why every single play for the chargers, they seem to have three or two players lined up like six yards behind the line of scrimmage.
0:06Like it's bizarre. They, every play there's a running back and then there's either a second back or a receiver or a
0:06tight end or Ingold or three of them that are lined up so far behind the line of scrimmage.
0:06And they're motioning everybody this way in that they're, they're, they're bringing about so many issues because either they're motioning guys, which
0:06is bringing more defenders into the box, which is confusing their offensive line because they don't know who's coming from where.
0:06And so they're missing, um, run fits. They're missing blitz pickups.
0:06It's the whole thing is a mess and it's so overcomplicated.
0:06And I, I genuinely don't understand what some of these motions are doing.
0:06Like they'll have these motions where it's like, okay, Ingold's going to start in this sniffer position.
0:06And then he's going to motion like back into the backfield.
0:06And then he's going to come out in this motion.
0:06It's like, to what point? Like other than to give the defense more time to line up and to get your own players confused.
0:06This offense has been so frustrating to watch. Anyway.
0:06Um, yeah, Ingold's an issue. I just think he's an issue for everybody and including just the effectiveness of the team.
0:06I, I guess like if, if this offense is going to work and it's going to stay like within the Mike McDaniel kind of vision.
0:06Um, I think that the Keaton play will pay off.
0:06Uh, because I, I do think like he is the one who fits this current offense better.
0:06But I also think the current offense is a disaster.
0:06And I would not be surprised if Mike McDaniel is fired in three weeks.
0:06Um, and they just go back to a more traditional Jim Harbaugh offense.
0:06And they give a Marion Campton 24 carries up the middle running power.
0:06Um, like that's a world where I could see this playing out.
0:06Like, do you think Mike McDaniel makes it through the season?
0:06This offense is a mess. It's really bad. I hadn't thought about that, but we just, because he was such a high
0:06profile higher, but it really wouldn't shock me if they decided to go a different direction.
0:06I think like one of the ways, I don't know if I came to this conclusion or you or somebody else I've
0:06talked to, but one of the ways I've heard it mentioned is that it feels like Jim Harbaugh and Mike McDaniel are
0:06both, like negative, like force more multipliers is like, I think the term that you like to use on each other, like
0:07Jim Harbaugh being the head coach for Mike McDaniel is making the Mike McDaniel offense worse.
0:07And Mike McDaniel being the OC for Jim Harbaugh is making anything that Jim Harbaugh does worse.
0:07I, one of the things I don't understand is Jim Harbaugh's offenses are usually very technically sound.
0:07And this, this team keeps making so many egregious mistakes, like within a football game, they got down to like a second and one.
0:07I talked about how they ended up having such a hard time, converting.
0:07I think they got to a second and one from the goal line and committed like some type of a false start.
0:07And then I think they were at like a third and six and committed like another five yard penalty.
0:07And they ended up with like third and goal from the 11.
0:07And it's like, you have second and goal from the one lock it in, like do not commit whatever it is.
0:07It's just a bad penalty. They're making, they've had a ton of those kinds of penalties.
0:07They had a, a defensive one where the, the bills had multiple holding penalties in a row and gotten to like, it
0:07was like, it was still second down, but it was like second and 27.
0:07And I, I, I'm like, I'm watching it. And I wrote about this in signals, but I, I'm like, this is absolutely
0:07going to be one of those situations where they're going to get one of the automatic first down defensive penalties.
0:07Cause it's second and 27. And all you need to do is just, and like the bills are on their own side of the field.
0:07All you need to do is sit back, rally, tackle, give them a 10, 12, 13 yard completion.
0:07Who cares? Do that twice. They'll still have to punt.
0:07I mean, you can't give them to 15 yard completions, but like they need 30 yards and two plays.
0:07Very next snap. They got, it was still second down.
0:07They didn't even get to third down. They got a defensive holding in the secondary automatic first down.
0:07And it's like, what are you doing? How are you that on disciplined?
0:07Like I'm a average Joe watching the games. The first thing I'm thinking of it.
0:07Second and extra, extra long is there are a lot of penalties on the books here that ruin the situation.
0:07And we have to get a punt out of this.
0:07We have to get a stop. I got to be communicating to my players.
0:07Do not grab and hold. We will like call a defensive play.
0:07That's a deeper zone that allows guys to pass guys off.
0:07Don't put them in man coverage where if they get double move, they feel the need to grab and hold, you know,
0:07like again, work, work from back to front, rally, tackle, like figure out the situation, get, get into a punt.
0:07It's not that difficult on second and 27 to force a punt when the team's way back on their own, you know,
0:07side of the field and you can allow some yardage.
0:07It's not like you had to keep them out of field goal range or something.
0:07Anyway, it was, it was atrocious and they've had plays like that.
0:07They, I wrote about that in the ceiling signals after week one.
0:07And then again, after week two, that it's just bad football stuff.
0:07Like there was the, the game against the Raiders.
0:07The sequence was, that was just mind numbing. Cause Clint, Clint Kubiak was completely like, he's done a great job of coaching,
0:07but he was completely overmatched in the game management situation there.
0:07It was something where Justin Herbert's arm got hit and it was ruled a fumble.
0:07And it went to a fourth and seven. And the broadcast is sitting there saying they needed challenges.
0:07I think that Ryan Peyton, any guy who's been doing a lot of the NFL stuff did a big tweet about this.
0:07So people probably saw it on social. I wrote about it in signals earlier in the week, the whole sequence.
0:07So I'm not stealing it from him. I it's published, but the, it was, it was, it was an, it was a
0:07mind numbing obscene sequence where the announcer of the broadcast is literally talking about, they need to challenge that the, the chargers
0:07recovered the fumble and got a six yard gain out of it.
0:07And they're saying challenge that cause it's a pass.
0:07They didn't, uh, Clint Kubiak does not challenge it.
0:07They get to a fourth and one. They let them run a snap.
0:07Um, or they're going to let them run a snap.
0:07The, the Raiders, I think use the timeout. This is exactly right.
0:07They use a timeout and like just challenge. Why not just challenge?
0:07Then they come out of the timeout with 12 guys on the field.
0:07This is the thing that I couldn't, it was the most insane thing I was writing about in stealing signals is fourth
0:07and one out of a timeout and you have 12 defenders on the field, automatic five yard penalty for breaking the huddle
0:07with five players or with 12 players, five, uh, gives them a first down.
0:07And then immediately after the first down, so that was all Raiders mess ups.
0:07Then immediately after the first down, the chargers are down like six.
0:07It's like a key spot. They got to go score a three or something.
0:07It was a one score game. Maybe they're down one.
0:07I can't remember. Omari and Hampton fumbled on first down right after that.
0:07And then the Raiders went and scored and made it a two possession game.
0:07It was obscene. And like, that was the coaching mistake.
0:07You're not coaching mistake. It's a player mistake, but like ball control has got to be emphasized there as well.
0:07And you know, there are teams that fumbles happen, but there are teams that are a little sloppier with the ball and some of those things.
0:07And it's just, was it, it was indicative on the charger side of not being well prepared, which has been an issue
0:07throughout their games on both sides of the ball.
0:07It's never been a hardball thing. So you have the McDaniel issues, but you have the hardball issues too.
0:07It's like, I mean, he's the head coach. Like some of this falls back on him too.
0:07Yeah. I just think the whole thing has been, I agree with you.
0:07I think the way that you put the running back stuff and the Hampton stuff, you answered my question.
0:07Well, which is I was talking about like, what's the deal with when you made the JK Dobbins comparison, I was going
0:07to say, I mean, Hampton has 50 carries. He had a 20 something carry game in week two.
0:07He had only 12 in week one and 13 in week two.
0:07Well, my comparison there is specifically based on how it looked in week three.
0:07That's like, if that week three distribution was to continue for the whole season, because he did, he did have like a
0:0758% snapshot in week one, 63 in week two.
0:07And then it was way back. Yeah. His, his role, like his, his role is decreased in each successive week.
0:07And it doesn't mean that that's a linear thing or that's guaranteed to happen.
0:07I'm saying like the snapshot of his week three role is the JK Dobbins role, but like his week one role and
0:07week two role were, were not, they were not the role I wanted for him.
0:07The route share has been low consistently, like to a concerning degree, but he was at least in like, like in week
0:07one, he was basically in like a Barkley role, which is like, well, week one, he only had the 12 carries, no targets.
0:07Week two, we had 23 carries, two targets had over a hundred total yards.
0:07His snapshot actually went up five percentage points from 58 to 63.
0:07And then week three was just like, Oh, we lost 20 percentage points.
0:07His snapshot drops all the way to 42, but you may be seeing something on when you're saying it's well, the route,
0:07the routes came, the routes came down. Okay. Yeah.
0:07So, I mean, they didn't run the ball that many times in week one, cause they were trailing so hard.
0:07I just meant like the first two weeks, really, there wasn't that much of a difference between week one and week two.
0:07Like in week one and week two, he profiled as a very clear early down back who was losing like some early down receiving stuff to Mitchell.
0:07And well, in week one, Vidal didn't even play.
0:07And then Vidal started to play more in like past pro situations.
0:07He played a little bit more in week two, and then he played a lot more in week three.
0:07But yeah, it's the Dobbins comparison, strictly the week three usage, which may or may not hold.
0:07I mean, I guess my argument would be that like, based on how McDaniel's trying to run this offense, I think that
0:07the week three usage is probably more optimal in terms of their running backs.
0:07But I don't know that this is like a goal.
0:07Like, I don't know that this Mike McDaniel offense is, is working.
0:07So I wouldn't be surprised if, yeah, well, actually, I don't know if it's working.
0:07It's not working. Yeah. So that's what I was going to say.
0:07I pushed back on the Dobbins thing. Like minorly, I was going to say that was the only thing, but then the
0:07other point that you had made there was your expectations for the church's offense after week one was that they would rebound.
0:07And by week three, you're pretty concerned. That's how I've written it up in ceiling signals as well.
0:07And I was like, yeah, it's great. It's a great point.
0:07It's a great, I'm still thinking about like, who's going to win this backfield and, and what's the usage going to be like.
0:07And I haven't thought enough about, yeah, I am terrified about the overall offense.
0:07And I wrote that in signals after week three, like that was, that was a shockingly rough loss for them.
0:07I like the week two game was also very rough.
0:07So week one, horrible, but you're like, okay, maybe it was just week one week two.
0:07It was rough, but they fumbled that I was talking about the Amari and Hampton fumble because it was kind of a
0:07fascinating situation where there was, you know, it wasn't a good game for the chargers.
0:07There was a lot of different things going on.
0:07They were down. I just pulled up. They're down 17, 14.
0:07They were across midfield. They get the first down after that sequence.
0:07I described with the too many men on the field and the, the fumble that was really an incomplete pass.
0:07And the Raiders should have challenged to make sure that the fumble got overturned to an incomplete pass.
0:07Cause it would have saved them six yards and made a fourth and seven instead of a fourth and one.
0:07Right. But after they get that and they get, they get lucky and they're not playing great against the Raiders, but the
0:07Raiders look like a pretty good team. The Raiders win a good game against the saints.
0:07I think the saints look like a pretty good team, to be honest.
0:07There are teams I did not expect to be good.
0:07And those are teams that had, they combined for, I was looking at it earlier today.
0:07They combined for like, I think a nine and 25 record last year or whatever it is.
0:07Not, not, not, I think it's nine. Yeah. Nine and 20, whatever.
0:07Um, they're going to beat that this year. They're going to beat that this year.
0:07Those two teams are going to beat that this year for sure.
0:07They, uh, and a big part of those nine wins was the saints winning late in the year when they were playing
0:07the really soft schedule, but they were the six win team and the, and the Raiders were a three win team.
0:07And they both kind of played like three win teams for the, at least the first half of the year.
0:07And then the saints had a decent little end of the year, but they both look like much, much better teams this year.
0:07And, but in this game, they, they have that big mistake where they don't challenge.
0:07They get the fourth down. The, the chargers get the first down there across midfield.
0:07And then Hampton fumbles. If Hampton does not fumble there, they're down 17, 14.
0:07There's a very decent chance that they're, they, they get into field goal range and tie the game and, or are able
0:07to cap that drive with a touchdown. Instead, the Raiders, there's, there's four minutes left in the game at this point.
0:07Instead, the Raiders come back with a touchdown drive.
0:07It was a three play touchdown drive after the fumble was returned all the way to the 16 yard line from midfield.
0:07So a three play touchdown drive, uh, that started in the red zone.
0:07Raiders go up 24, 14 charges are now in desperation mode.
0:07There's three minutes like immediately flips from, you have the ball across midfield down three to you're in desperation mode.
0:07And they throw like four straight times. And Herbert ends up throwing a pick and then, um, ends up actually throwing a
0:07pick six, uh, with like under two minutes left.
0:07He threw two picks after this point, they, they threw a pick.
0:07They get a, uh, three rushes, but the charger saw timeouts.
0:07We're able to get the ball back again. And then Herbert throws a pick six.
0:07They lose 26, 14, but it was not like a, or no, sorry, not a pick six.
0:07It was a, I see a scoring play here and I'm getting confused.
0:07It was an offensive holding in the end zone for a safety.
0:07That's actually what happened. 26, 14 end of the, um, end of the game there.
0:07But it was, it was closer to the chargers winning.
0:07And I was, I was willing to be like, well, week two was actually an improvement.
0:07They got a hundred yard game out of Omari and Hampton.
0:07They probably could have won this game late and maybe the Raiders are decent.
0:07And I also have some clown show stuff in that game that you didn't even mention, which was like in Joku playing
0:07volleyball directly to a defender on a perfectly thrown 30 yard completion.
0:07They had a Rondae Gadsden doing a scramble drill up the sideline where he deflected a ball away from Brennan Thompson.
0:07Like there was Brennan Thompson stone dropping like a 20, like they had a lot of just like curb your enthusiasm music plays.
0:07Which is not good for your team. Which is not good, which is not good.
0:07But I guess like they had a mix of issues in that game that felt systemic and isolated.
0:07Like there were systemic issues, which was scheme not fitting to talent.
0:07Why do they commit so many false starts and holding penalties and like execution issues?
0:07But they also just had like guys dropping passes in the deflect directly to defenders.
0:07And it's like, well, that's not going to happen every single week.
0:07And so anyways, I didn't mean to cut you off.
0:07That's the point I was trying to make. Great, great point.
0:07I agree with your overall like takeaway that week two had some systemic worrying issues and also just some like comedy of
0:07errors, game from hell type stuff that felt not repeatable.
0:07And whereas week three felt more like everything was going right in week three.
0:07And yeah, and they're somehow still blowing it. And you're like, what you're getting everything.
0:07You get three fumble and their defense is playing great.
0:07I want to give their defense credit. They got an early punt as well, but they get three fumbles.
0:07And one of those fumbles I think was on a third down, but you're setting the point of the turnovers is you're
0:07setting up the offense with great field position as well.
0:07The offense only like coming out of the first half where there was four or they got, they got a punt.
0:07The first four drives for the bills was fumble quick punt where they only had four net yards interception, interception.
0:07The bills had had 11 total yards and you're getting great field position off these.
0:07And the chargers did score on that first drive, but they scored on that first drive and Herbert threw a pick that just got dropped.
0:07Like it was right to the guy's chest. He threw a wheel route to Alec in gold that had a safety over the top.
0:07You never throw the wheel route. Like I'm all about running back air yards.
0:07If there's a safety there, you get the one-on-one and then you're like, yeah, there's my guy and you don't throw a
0:07wheel route to Alec in gold period. Like, what are you doing?
0:07Like you don't run that to the fullback and what?
0:07And he just hits the safety in the chest and safety drops the ball.
0:07And it's like, wow, okay. They ended up scoring a touchdown on that drive.
0:07That's the only touchdown of the game. They're like super fortunate to get that first TD.
0:07They end up punting on the next drive. They get a field goal where they started in plus territory.
0:07They end up missing a field goal on probably their best drive that started from their own 10 of at least the
0:07first half, but they get all the way into field goal range, but they miss the field goal.
0:07Dicker uncharacteristically misses. They take over in good field position again and punt.
0:07And then the bills do wind up scoring 10 points on their last two drives of the half.
0:07It's 10, 10 at half. And I had put in my notes for stealing signals.
0:07The chargers blew an opportunity here. And the second half starts and they get two fumbles.
0:07They get a Dalton Kincaid fumble on a play where he's just beasting everyone and can't be tackled, but they're able to punch the ball out.
0:07Kincaid looks awesome on this play up until the point where he fumbles.
0:07And then they, they, they strip Josh Allen right after that.
0:07And they only get three points off of that.
0:07They end up having to punt and they're only up 13, 10 and you have five takeaways at this point.
0:07And it's just not good enough. I mentioned the Herbert dropped interception.
0:07Another issue was Herbert throws an interception on a post over the middle.
0:07And Tom Brady's calling this game. And he's like, there's a safety in the middle of the field.
0:07The middle of the field is close here. It's one deep safety.
0:07The, his quote, I put it in stealing signals was something I'm going to paraphrase something like the thing you can't do
0:07when you have one deep safety in the middle of the field is throw the post.
0:07It's the only thing you can't do is like, I just don't know what Herbert's doing here.
0:07And it's like, that's not ideal. When Tom Brady's on the call and it's like, I can't even explain it.
0:07The thing he should be identifying at the beginning of the play is where the safeties are.
0:07And then if, if there's a deep middle safety, middle of the field close, you don't throw the post right into the safety.
0:07It's absurd. It was an absurd interception. They were Herbert.
0:07Herbert I defended as not being the problem. The first couple of weeks, I think they could have won.
0:07And we, I thought, you know, there was some, some schematic issues and some other stuff in week one.
0:07You mentioned the week two stuff. He gets screwed over by Njoku, bobbling up the interception.
0:07You mentioned the around a Gadsden curb, your enthusiasm play.
0:07I obviously talked to Tom about the, the Marian Hampton fumble.
0:07These are not things that are solely on Justin Herbert.
0:07Yeah. Week two, Herbert is getting lucky for like that interception early and going, getting the touchdown and the chargers are getting,
0:07um, so many offensive possessions, even when they're failing and punting that you shouldn't be able to ask for against the bills,
0:07but your defense is coming up massive for you.
0:07For the most part, they wind up later. As I noted, giving up the free first down on the second and super long.
0:07That was just an absurd situation, but like you can't make mistakes against the bills.
0:07You can't be, you can't fail to execute against the bills.
0:07They're eventually going to beat you. They win this game going away.
0:07They take the lead by one and then they get the ball back and they score another touchdown.
0:07The bills should have won this game by 40.
0:07They should have won this game by 40. They end up winning by eight.
0:07They absolutely should have won by 40. They take the lead 17, 13.
0:07They score again. They go up 24, 13. There's no world where the bill should have been up 24, 13 with three
0:07minutes left in this game with how poor they were on the execution side of the equation with the five turnovers and everything.
0:08I'm sure bills fans were like, what the hell did I just watch?
0:08Like they're expecting their offense to be a powerhouse and this is the opening of their new stadium.
0:08And they're turning the ball over like crazy. And you're like, this is a bad twilight zone.
0:08And your team still wins like comfortably. It's very bizarre.
0:08That's the worst getting the bills are going to play all year long.
0:08Yeah. And they still win comfortably by eight points.
0:08They stay covered. There were seven and a half point favorites against an O and two team.
0:08And they covered by a half a point. I mean, just an absurd, absurd game that the chargers when I think you
0:08said it perfectly, what I was trying to say about week two, there was a mix of systemic and whatever other word
0:08you use, but not repeatable stuff from week two, week three, everything goes their way.
0:08Everything in a football game. You could ask to go your way goes their way.
0:08And they just shoot themselves in their foot over and over and over again.
0:08I mean, at least the offense, like the defense was doing a great job.
0:08I want to give the defense credit, but like they also shot themselves in the foot on the one play, but regardless,
0:08I've said this over and over again. I just, I think the, I agree with you getting back to the Hampton and
0:08Keaton Mitchell thing about the chargers as a team.
0:08It looks like a massive concern. It could go a million different ways.
0:08Mike McDaniel. I'm, I'm taking very seriously your, your, your call that like he could get fired.
0:08Like, and I guess I hadn't really given that any kind of real consideration, but it wouldn't shock me because they have
0:08to do something a lot different and they're not making adjustments week one, week two, week three.
0:08There were some positives in this week three game.
0:08Like they did have a lot of total yards, but when you get this many takeaways and you get this many opportunities
0:08with the ball, you got to do more. You got to have more answers.
0:08And there, some of the stuff that they're trying isn't even that good.
0:08It's not some of the stuff they're trying. You talked about the Alec Ingold stuff.
0:08And I talked about like the keep Mitchell passes other than the touchdown.
0:08And even the touchdown, he has to make a great athletic play to get a one yard TD.
0:08And he ends up with negative five receiving yards on the three catches total.
0:08It's like every time they're calling that play, the bills are like, know the play call.
0:08Like how, how is, how is it so easy for you guys to like, uh, be like completely in the backfield and stop these plays.
0:08I mean, it might be Daniel looks like he doesn't have answers right now.
0:08And it's, it's obviously quite alarming. So anyway, I, I, I agree with your general point as you were talking, you know,
0:08circle all the way back to the Amarian Hampton thing that, that Hampton's, um, usage isn't the only concern.
0:08The other concern is that the charges are like, he's not a good fit for a bad offense.
0:08Like that's a problem. Right. Like hopefully. I mean, and if you want to make a Hampton bull point, which like are
0:08few and far between these days, I guess what it would be is that there's a train right now that is favoring
0:08Keaton Mitchell, but that train is driving off of a cliff.
0:08So like, it might not matter who's the conductor of the train that is like actively crashing into the ocean.
0:08It's like, I'm Keaton Mitchell. I'm like, I'm, I'm driving the train.
0:08It's like, Oh no, that sounds really not good for Keaton Mitchell.
0:08He's right. So, so it's like, maybe, maybe this train, you know, turns.
0:08And like, I don't think Keaton Mitchell is the problem to be clear at all, actually.
0:08But I, so like maybe this train turns and the path is then Mike McDaniel offense is like here to stay and
0:08they get better at it over time. And in that world, I think this is great for Keaton Mitchell, but like there's
0:08other worlds where Mike McDaniel is either fired or Jim Harbaugh is like, yeah, like you're still the OC, but like you
0:08no longer have free reign over this. Like we're going to make some changes and we're going to simplify things and we're
0:08going to take out some of the stuff that isn't working.
0:08And like, I don't know what that, I don't, basically what I'm just trying to say is that the, the momentum of
0:08the current offense is trending towards Mitchell, but the offense is so untenable that there has to be a consideration for ways
0:08in which this offense looks drastically different, either under Mike McDaniel's OC or not.
0:08And I have no idea what those versions look like.
0:08There's no guarantee that those versions, the solution for that is a Marion Hampton.
0:08Like I, that's, that's definitely not guaranteed. It could be, it could be Keaton, but this gets all the way back to
0:08my very first point, which was like, right. You can't be super low on Hampton.
0:08If the stuff with Keaton isn't working amazing. Like if they don't, if he doesn't even have a hundred total yards, I
0:08was like, right when we started talking about this, it was like, it's your, it's your train point.
0:08It's like, we're not on the tracks. It's not like we're, we're chugging along with the other running back.
0:08Like everything is a disaster. So the answer has got to come from somewhere and it very well could come from Hampton,
0:08but it definitely doesn't have to, to your point, it could come from Keaton.
0:08It could come from, or there could be no answer.
0:08That was the point that you made that I didn't, they may not be able to steer this train back onto the right direction.
0:08It might just be a train wreck. It may just be a problem for this whole season for the chargers, which is
0:08really, like you said, where we're headed. That's where the tracks are headed is off a cliff right now.
0:08It's not great. I want to, it's just, Oh yeah, go for it.
0:08So if you had another thought there, we definitely want to talk about a few wide receivers and tight ends.
0:08We do. I just, the last thing I wanted to say, McDaniel, because I've been really complimentary of him in the past.
0:08And so I just wanted to kind of address that because I, I'm ragging on him a lot here and I don't want it to come off.
0:08Like I'm like some person who's pretending to have always been an anti Mike McDaniel when I've been very much the opposite.
0:08I've just been legitimately stunned at how bad the offense is oriented because I felt like, what I loved about Mike McDaniel
0:08so much was that he came to Miami and he had like personnel with very specific strengths and weaknesses.
0:08And I thought he devised an offense that was incredibly tailored to mitigate their weaknesses and accentuate their strengths.
0:08And I just kind of assumed that that was the Mike McDaniel special sauce.
0:08Like it wasn't the specific plays or the specific formations, the specific packages.
0:08I thought that the goal was really more about like, no, this is a guy who emphasizes his player strengths and mitigates his weaknesses in creative ways.
0:08And that that would be the core of what translates to other personnel.
0:08And I don't know if that was the case then.
0:08And he maybe just kind of fell in love with his playbook too much over time or whether maybe it was just
0:08a coincidence that like he has a specific offensive vision that happened to really line up with his personnel in Miami.
0:08Like, I don't know, but like, it's felt like to me that he's, it's become a good hearts law offense, which is
0:08like where I always talk about where, when measures become targets, they cease to become measures.
0:08And it's like, it's felt like it's now more about how do we get the fullback involved?
0:08How do we come up with this really fancy motion?
0:08How do we run these cool plays? And it's less about start from ground zero.
0:08How do I build the best offense around Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkie, Omerian Hampton, whoever else, like it's become a lot more
0:08about the, the bells and the whistles and the design, because I, I don't know, like, I'm watching a lot of these
0:08plays and I'm just like, what's this for? Why, why is this happening?
0:08Is this the best thing that you can do around the personnel that you have?
0:08And it just feels forced. And like unnecessarily complicated.
0:08And I think that part of the reason there's so many mental errors is that the offense just seems so unnecessarily convoluted
0:08that it feels like players are, are using up a lot of their mental energy to remember all the different motions and
0:08formations and personnel groupings and when to sub on and when to sub off and where to line up.
0:08And it's like, then you are so mentally taxed that you forget to catch the ball or you forget to read the
0:08coverage or you forget to run through the right gap or you forget to hold on.
0:08Like, it's just too much. And I, and it's just disappointing because I feel like McDaniel, I feel like the takeaway is
0:08going to be the McDaniel always socked him was found out.
0:08And I don't think that was the case. I'll defend his Miami record to anyone, but I do think he has been
0:08far short of my expectations in Los Angeles. Yeah.
0:08Well said let's do Jeremiah love real quick. I, the way I want to put it to you is how many running
0:08backs did you take ahead of him? I will say on him, I'll give you a chance.
0:08Yeah. I want to give you a chance to think about that for a sec.
0:08He winds up with 21 carries. He had six carries on the opening drive.
0:08I think one was called back by a whole five official ones.
0:08Tyler Algier finishes this game with just two attempts.
0:08He does run more routes in the game. Algier kind of interesting to see him play a little bit of a passing
0:08down role, catches four balls, love catches five. This is one where I get to be a little bit of a victory
0:08lapper and you didn't venture that I kind of did for you, but you nailed the Mitchell thing.
0:08Um, but it last week after week two, I called it, I mean, not some like huge surprise, but called loves week
0:08two involvement, which had gone kind of the wrong direction, like pretty clearly called it noise because the Cardinals only ran 14
0:08plays in the second half of that game against Seattle.
0:08I think we talked about it. They have like an 11 minute drive to run out that game.
0:08Maybe we talked about this on the show. Even I'm not entirely sure, but I think I mentioned it in the new,
0:08uh, the newsletter as well, an input volatility that I, I really expected a bounce back game from love, a good week.
0:08Three, like very definitively was like, I'm expecting him to do well here.
0:08He ends up with a 22 point PPR game and it exceeded my expectations as part of my point as well.
0:08I was expecting him to play more and to rebound in week three and, and to be the lead back, but he
0:08started the game for the first time, or maybe they both started week two.
0:08I can't remember, but Algier was definitely the week one starter.
0:08I think they maybe did a two running back set in week two, or maybe it was Algier.
0:08Um, but week three love starts love gets five carries, official carry six carries with one callback by hold on that.
0:08Opening drive. He gets the, um, green zone touch for the touchdown at the one yard line.
0:08They did a play action sprint to the flat play where they, you know, they fake to him and then he just
0:08runs right to the flat, fast to the flat, gets the catch for the TD catches five balls on the early downs,
0:08even though his routes were not necessarily amazing. Looks super dynamic, um, runs for 90 yards, 19 more in the past game, 22 points, uh, by PPR.
0:08As I was saying, looked awesome. I'm sure you had them looking awesome.
0:08How many running backs would you take ahead of him?
0:08Well, I did my rest of season redraft rankings after week two and I put them RB 12, which I got some
0:08comments saying, how can you put this guy in the top 12 is in a timeshare.
0:08And so I'll, I'll do my own victory lap of saying like, I wasn't that worried about it.
0:08Um, now I didn't think it was going to happen like quite as dramatically.
0:08And as soon as week three, but I, I felt like this was an inevitable place we were going to get to.
0:08And it was just a matter of whether it was week three or week five or week seven, but now we're already here.
0:08Um, I would put him. Well, let's see. Uh, I'll name them for you.
0:08I'll put them. I'll put them. I'll put them.
0:08Nine is my answer. I would take Gibbs, B.
0:08John Taylor, CMC Walker, James Cook. I assume. Henry, Jenty cook, Henry.
0:08Henry. I'm taking love over. Henry. I'm taking love over.
0:08Cook. I'm taking love over cook. I think I'm taking love.
0:08Why wouldn't you take love over Jenty? I think Jeremiah love should be like RB sex.
0:08Okay. Is that obscene? Like, cause it's only going to go up.
0:08It's like, what are we, what are we worried about?
0:08This team threw 52 passes in week three, all this stuff about the Cardinals.
0:08They're looking at headlines. I mean, I talked about it a lot cause I was trying to make sense of it, but
0:08like I talked about the McBride thing a ton.
0:08The routes are so high. We have to regress the routes.
0:08We can this, that the other thing, you know, I got into Michael Wilson a ton.
0:08I was like, dude, Jacoby percent is QB again.
0:08We get to 17 target game. Why was last year such an outlier?
0:08Why was it not going to be something that could potentially repeat in certain ways?
0:08They threw 52 passes. Jacoby percent, your drop back conversion rate name for that, you know, that stat of like what we,
0:08what we like love to look at his drop back conversion rate is great.
0:08This guy drops back. He throws passes. And importantly, because he doesn't take sacks or scramble when it's an, you know, it's
0:08either a good play for a completion or it's an incompletion.
0:08That's, that's why this drop back conversion rates. That's so important.
0:08It stops the clock. Incompletions are great in modern football.
0:08They run more plays, dude. We want the clock to stop.
0:08The clock is always running. I watch all these games.
0:08Like half the games, I always say this, like, it feels like we only got three quarters of, of the sport.
0:08Like the teams didn't finish. Cause the clock is always running.
0:08It used to stop when the ball went out of bounds.
0:08It still runs when the ball is going on.
0:08Like I'm watching these games. There was a lot of punts early.
0:08And I'm like, how was it already late in the second?
0:08Now it's the third. It's the middle of the third.
0:08Nothing's happened. Stop the clock. Like somebody just stop running the clock, call a timeout or something.
0:08Like I, it's annoying as hell when you have players in a game and they're, they're not involved early.
0:08And the game just whittles away. That's how football feels.
0:08Now it's not the same as it felt 10, 15, 20 years ago.
0:08Some of that's the, there is a change in how they run the clock with some of the out of bounds stuff.
0:08The clock still stops on incompletions, which makes these drop back conversion rate guys.
0:08So crucial. If a team's willing to drop back a lot, they're either going to complete passes, which we'll take, even if the clock's running, we'll take it.
0:08We got points or it's an incompletion. The clock will stop and you can get to 52 passes when you're Jacoby percent,
0:08because you're in a situation where yeah, you, you also get the Niners being super efficient on the other side.
0:08This is a classic shootout game back and forth late.
0:08It was, it wasn't even that like high scoring through, let's see, it was 23 to six late in the third.
0:08And then the Cardinals score touchdown. And then they get the ball back and score another touchdown.
0:08Now it's 23, 20 and it's early fourth and you get Niners touchdown Cardinals touchdown Niners touchdown Cardinals kick a field goal.
0:08Cause they got to try an onside kick, but it ends up being a 36, 30 finish.
0:08And it was 23 to six. Like I said, late in the third, you get 30 total points in the fourth quarter
0:08alone, total shootout total fourth quarter back and forth.
0:08We see that. And that requires some efficiency. I mentioned 52 pass attempts.
0:08The Niners only ran 50 plays in this game and they still had more total yards than the Cardinals who ran 80
0:08something plays because Brock Purdy looks awesome. And the Cardinals offense looks awesome.
0:08And they have the 80 yard touchdown to Samuel early and they get some explosive plays to Kittle and they're getting all
0:08sorts of big plays and, and, and long touchdowns and they only need to run 50 plays to score 36 points.
0:08So you get, you know, that element of it helps it's, he's not going to throw 50 passes in a game, but
0:08the, the ability to get there to 50 pass attempts is like a Joe Flacco trade.
0:08It's a, it's a Jacoby preset trade. It's, it's this drop back conversion trade.
0:08It's the, it's getting past attempts out there and there can be incompletions.
0:08And he goes 38 for 52 in this game.
0:08He only income only, only 14 incompletions, but still, I mean, Brock Purdy, uh, had 12 incompletions.
0:08He had a much lower completion percentage, but he only threw 27 passes.
0:08Just my point is by raw numbers, even when you don't have a very good completion percentage at a low number, it's
0:08only 12 times that it stopped the clock. We're set through 52 passes.
0:08Even though we completed 38, stopped the clock 14 times.
0:08I just, I just want the clock to stop so we can get some NFL, you know, stats.
0:08So we can get some fantasy football stuff. The preset thing is very optimistic for the whole offense.
0:08Not necessarily because they're going to score 30 points in every single game.
0:08The Niners defense doesn't look great, but it is a situation where you get a lot of targets.
0:08You get a lot. I mentioned Algeria at four targets and love had five, that nine running back targets.
0:08Wilson had 17 and you still get 11 McBride.
0:08Ho hum 11, nine 75. It was a down game for him.
0:08I called it. I think I called it noise jokingly, or I was going to call it noise.
0:08And then I was like, this will just confuse people.
0:08But like, he should have had a 16 target game in this game.
0:08It's kind of absurd that he only had 11 targets out of 52 attempts.
0:08Marvin Harrison getting five targets for three catches for 40 yards, a spike week for him.
0:08Deep side from Jacob. So Joe over. But like, isn't, isn't that part of the love case?
0:08I guess this is what I'm getting at. I mean, I think that it's, it's definitely part of the love case.
0:08I would also say that like two weeks ago, they ran 50 plays because they aren't that good.
0:08And so I think that the way that the, the specific way in which they're not that good allows them to have really fun spikes.
0:08Um, like we saw in week three, uh, with the 86 play game and that we will see, well, I don't know
0:08if we'll literally see 86 again, but we will see several other games that mimic week three.
0:08I think that we will also see plenty of games that mimic week two, where, you know, they, the other team does
0:08not play as fast as the 49ers do in building their lead.
0:08And they, instead of the other team going up seven, nothing with a two play drive, the other team goes up seven,
0:08nothing with a grueling 16 play eight and a half minute drive.
0:08And there, the, like a lot of the Cardinals fantasy fun was like in the second half when they started down by 17.
0:09And then they were able to, um, sustain a bunch of drives in garbage time or not even garbage time.
0:09Cause they actually made a competitive, but like in comeback mode time and they can do that.
0:09But there will also be weeks where like they go three and out at the start of that drive down 17 points.
0:09And then they give the ball back and then they get it back down 24.
0:09And like, it's, it's less fun. So I, I just think that that, that specific like confluence of circumstances that we saw
0:09in week three is going to happen more for the Cardinals than it's going to happen for most teams in the NFL,
0:09but it doesn't mean that it's just going to happen every single week.
0:09And so I would say like, it's, it's going to be variant like this week.
0:09They play the giants for instance, who I think would in their perfect world, hand the ball off 47 times.
0:09And like, I wouldn't be surprised if the Cardinals, if the Cardinals have success in this game, they will be able to
0:09dictate the pace of the game and it's going to be maybe more fun.
0:09And we're going to see the Cardinals being fun and the giants being dragged to being fun with James dropping back a lot.
0:09But like, I can also see a world where Cardinals go three and out on their first couple drives.
0:09The giants have like 14 play drives that feature seven Scadaboo carries and five Najee Harris carries each.
0:09And the Cardinals are like forced into kind of a city, a crappy game environment.
0:09I think it'll just be variant. So I prefer the workhorses on the elite offenses like cook and Henry.
0:09I got to take role is not going to be quite as strong, but I mean, I'm very excited about Jeremiah love.
0:09It's like one of the frustrating aspects of podcasting with you is that like anytime there's like a young player that I
0:09want to be really excited about, like, I'm never going to be able to get as excited as you.
0:09And then I ended up saying negative things about Jeremiah love, which I don't want to do.
0:09You're not saying negative. That's really funny because I felt that same way.
0:09And I've expressed a sentiment on ceiling bananas. I felt the same way about Siegel over the years that he would be further than me on this list.
0:09So it's, it's sort of hilarious. But no, Derek Henry last week is the last week.
0:09I won't rank him as a weekly RB one for the rest of his twenties.
0:09Oh, I love that. Derek Henry is averaging 25 PPR points per game with like, you know, five catches for 38 yards.
0:09It doesn't even matter that it's PPR scoring. If it's non PPR, you're feeling obviously much better.
0:09Even it's, I there's listeners that are annoyed that I pretended like I could rank.
0:09Like it's, it's absurd to say that I would rank love ahead of Derek Henry.
0:09That's, that's silly. Derek Henry is belongs ahead of love.
0:09So I think at best RB seven. And I think you can make the case for, for him being ahead of both
0:09gente and cook cook is only at 17.4 points per game right now, four catches on eight targets for 16 yards.
0:09That's not what we were promised. That's not what people were talking about.
0:09Right? Like, and when I say we were promised, I'm kind of saying it facetiously.
0:09I was not in on cook. I'm being a little bit rude, but like a lot of people were like, James cooks
0:09receiving is going to take the league by storm.
0:09It's not happening. Yeah. 16 receiving yards. Obviously though, to your point, he's a workhorse on a good offense and he runs
0:09for a massive number of yards on the ground.
0:09And, and you know, it was probably going to score more touchdowns going forward.
0:09He's a workhorse runner. He's very efficient, very good.
0:09And that may still keep him ahead of love.
0:09Even if love ends up catching more passes or cooks receiving may get better.
0:09I don't, I don't expect this the rest of the year, five receiving yards per game, but, um, and then Gentis rushing
0:09looks a little bit, you know, I don't, I don't know.
0:09It was a little bit concerning in week three, I guess, but yeah, yeah.
0:09Fair enough. And the ankle's a concern, like he's limping on and off the field, but maybe you just better go with the healthier back.
0:09Um, but loves loves in the tier with cook and Genti behind that top six for sure.
0:09Um, I, I have a lot of tier ahead of Genti now in my dynasty rankings, which like, that was a big
0:09conversation point we had on dynasty points earlier this week was who's the new dynasty RB three, um, uh, like love versus Genti.
0:09And that's where I, I may be, but yeah, I would have them in the same tier for who's your RB 10,
0:09but I think like, is there anybody even in that tier?
0:09Yeah. Like I'm saying like, is there any, it would be, you're kind of saying really, it would be really tough.
0:09So I'm, let me pull, let me pull it up because I had, cause I had, so what I had after week
0:09two is I had Holland serving, but both, but like hall just suffered an injury.
0:09And then Irving, um, neither of us has said chase, a worse quarterback.
0:09No, it would be chase Brown. Yeah. Chase Brown, chase Brown.
0:09I had at nine, um, in this post week two, and I would move love ahead of him.
0:09So he would be my 10, but after him, I think I would say like Javante or six one.
0:09Yeah. The way my, the way my rest of, yeah.
0:09So the way my list went post week two was I had Brown at nine.
0:09Then I had hall. Then I had Irving. Then I had love.
0:09Like obviously hall got hurt. Irving lost his quarterback.
0:09Then I had eight Chan. He just got hurt.
0:09So Javante be the next guy. I already had him.
0:09I had a Barkley. Um, so yeah, it would be, I think it'd be Javante.
0:09Like, I don't know. Like then you get into like, yeah, Barkley, Kyron, Chuba Hubbard.
0:09I mean, I think, I think Tudan might be a top 12 running back.
0:09I think he's going to be a top 10.
0:09I think he's going to be a top 10.
0:09He's up in that range too. Yeah. Those are all the names I was thinking too, but I was trying to drive
0:09home is I don't think we're far off. You said RB nine and I was, I was trying to sort of make
0:09the point for you without making the point for you.
0:09But like, I think you would probably say there's sort of a tier break after RB nine or RB 10 ish.
0:09Maybe. I include Brown in that tier. Still, it's been a tough start for him, but I'd still include him in that tier.
0:09But after Brown, I would, I would put a big tier break for sure.
0:09And I already had a big tier break after Brown.
0:09So I would just move love up into that next tier, slot him ahead of Brown.
0:09And then, then the big tier break. Yeah. So, and, and that, and that counts what love has done, but it also
0:09is the hope for both of us. And the part of the reason I was so optimistic originally in saying, you know,
0:09he could go as high as six is he looked awesome.
0:09And the offense is fine. I was talking about the offense being fun.
0:09I expect a lot more out of him the rest of the way than we've even seen to this point.
0:09Like I expect him to continue to be really good and like on a talent basis, potentially look like one of the three or five best running backs.
0:09And like, like look what B. John Robinson's able to do in a really poor office in Atlanta.
0:09Cause he's that good. I mean, like there are running backs that do matter.
0:09And I'm not saying for sure. Jeremiah loves going to like, like for a lot of people, it's too early to say that kind of thing.
0:09I'm not saying for sure it's going to happen.
0:09And I could be too early in saying it.
0:09He looks that way. He looks the part. Like you mentioned, Gentry looks like the ankle still bugging him.
0:09Love's preseason injury does not appear to be bothering him.
0:09No, no, not at all. Um, yeah, they, with love, like he, I mean, I think that they, they managed it way better.
0:09Right. I mean, the ankle stuff. I mean, first of all, his injury happened earlier.
0:09It happened a week and a half earlier. And then they didn't thrust him into immediate workhorse role.
0:09They, they used him in a timeshare for two weeks and now he looks completely healthy and he's owning the backfield.
0:09Whereas Gentry's like going off the sideline to get his ankle taped halfway through the game.
0:09I, I, he looked so amazing in week one, but now I'm like, man, I just wish they just sat him for a couple of weeks, you know?
0:09And then it's like, let the thing fully heal instead of kind of re aggravating it now two weeks in a row.
0:09But anyways, I, I agree. Like love, we haven't seen the huge explosive play yet.
0:09I don't think that that's anything to do with how he's looked.
0:09He looks like he's just waiting for that. And I think one of these weeks we're going to get like the 50
0:09yard house call or, or one of these viral plays and it's going to be like, Oh man, this guy's Adrian Peterson.
0:09You know, they, they put everyone on notice in week three and the degree to which they, they did that.
0:09Algier still ran more routes and people are going to say, you know, that kind of thing.
0:09I mean, it's only a matter of time before love runs more routes than Algier as well.
0:09Like it's like, it's like, I'm sure Algier is going to maintain a role, but the way that week three is usage
0:09when as well, it's not a guarantee to stick.
0:09It was, it was, Hey, we want to use love a lot more.
0:09And, and look, it may backslide a little bit.
0:09They may decide after this week, look, we want to get Algier more than two carries.
0:09We want to get them at least five or seven or whatever.
0:09And to your point, they're going to have some games with not a lot of plays.
0:09And so love has 26 touches in this game.
0:09There's going to be some games where he has, you know, whatever 15 and some of those things that happened.
0:09They happened to good backs. They happen to workhorse backs.
0:09They've been happening to like chase Brown's a guy we've been talking about.
0:09I, um, I think he's had a couple of games where the touches have been a little bit lower.
0:09Yeah. It looks like week three at 15 touches.
0:09And he's like, it's not like a bad thing.
0:0913 carries, two targets. Uh, it's just the way that it worked out for him that week.
0:09Um, love will have some of those games, but I do just think that, you know, week three was sort of like
0:09them just dipping their toe in the water of like, look, yeah, I mean, loves love.
0:09We've done enough of the time share of the split without gear, like loves the guy that we want to feature our offense around.
0:09Uh, that's why we drafted him top five. Like, that's how we feel about the guy.
0:09Like we're, yeah, we're, we liked Alger too, but we're very optimistic about love.
0:09We see the rookie roles expand, you know, throughout rookie seasons.
0:09It's already reached this point in week three. That means that, yeah, I mean, it means the potential for like the B.
0:09John Robinson type like usage or the Jameer Gibbs type usage, like later in the season, five, six, seven, eight weeks from now.
0:09Like he's just getting every single play. Cause they're like, this is how we win.
0:09We give our best player the ball every single play.
0:09Like that's, that's what happens. You just decide that you need to get that.
0:09It's not anything against Algier. It's just like, this is the best player on our offense.
0:09And we want to give him the ball every, which is kind of absurd and hilarious to say, cause Trey McBride's also
0:09on this team and Trey McBride's like, right. Siegel's been taking to calling him the best player in football and a lot
0:09of his work, which I mean, you know, I love that, that, that description as well.
0:09This team is good. Like Marvin Harrison is a good, you know, ancillary piece.
0:09Like, I, what are you going to do with, like, I don't, I don't mind.
0:09I don't mind him being in the position he's in.
0:09I love that though. That's great. Give him 88.
0:09Uh, let's go to the bad. Yeah. Unretired 88.
0:09Reggie Wayne can be his wide receiver coach. Come on.
0:09And then Marvin Harrison jr. And the Marvin Harrison Jersey.
0:09That's hilarious. Yeah. yeah. I mean, sure. We'll fix it.
0:09They already paid Alec Pierce way too much money to justify that.
0:09Uh, wide receiver position. We wanted to talk a little bit about you had that's in the notes.
0:09Yeah. Let's go. Let's go warp speed here. Yeah.
0:09That's going to happen. Well, and I want to talk about the tight end.
0:09So we really should do it quick. You have burden stock up.
0:09You said we can talk about the other bears too.
0:09I mean, let's just rope in the tight ends.
0:09Cause you have Loveland in there. We already talked about Deke anyway.
0:09So let's just talk about the bears here with burden.
0:09And with Loveland. I want to ask you a specific question about the tight end.
0:09So maybe we'll go there and we can talk about the bears.
0:09Sure. But Loveland's tough start. Your guy, Max Toscano does an awesome, uh, sub stack.
0:09Uh, remember the tight ends wrote a piece about how good, love Lynn was.
0:09I think after week one without even catching the ball.
0:09Cause of how many different things he could do.
0:09I think it's a fascinating, I didn't, I didn't get a chance to read.
0:09I just, I saw the headline and everything. So I, I can't give like great details, but I mean, definitely check out Max's work.
0:09I think it's a fascinating, um, thing as I was working through stealing signals in week three, you and I always joke
0:09about the, the tight end route stuff. And so, I mean, I'm going to have jokingly have seriously give you this take
0:09that you're going to have real data behind, but I always, I, and you're going to have a much better read on.
0:09I always push, like, I don't push back on the tight end route stuff as much as I, I wonder how much it matters for fantasy football.
0:09And one of the big things that we've talked about a lot is like some of these guys that are tweeners, you
0:09called Eli Stowers a twink last week. I love people got to kind of kick out of it.
0:09Um, this was a concern with Sadiq. Sadiq has a massive game, even though he only runs 57% of the routes.
0:09This has been the concern with Juwan Johnson. Juwan Johnson has another great game, even though they are involving Noah Fant and stuff.
0:09This has been the concern with a Rondae Gadsden, who winds up playing a lot.
0:09He has an underwhelming game. You have him on the show sheet.
0:09Um, Harold Fannin been a concern. And I know you, I we've talked about him.
0:09You think he can block enough that it doesn't matter, but yet Harold Fannin, you know, how did rough week one role
0:09was part of this was like, yeah, can they keep him on the field?
0:09Winds up having a, it was one of the best tight ends in week three as multi-tight end, uh, touchdown game.
0:09One of the things that's happening with some of these multi Brock Bowers, Brock Bowers supposed to be a limited tight end
0:09in some ways, just played wide receiver. So as far as fantasy is concerned, he just is a wide receiver.
0:09Brock Bowers is like completely separate for this discussion.
0:09Like he's just so good. So I knew you were going to have some nuance to this, but my point, what my
0:09point would be that the way I would frame it in my head, as far as it work matters for fantasy is
0:09that these guys are not limited when they're good enough receivers.
0:09And I know that you've agreed with this too, but also as we've moved to more multi-tight end packages and teams want
0:09to just get tight ends on the field. They don't mind playing these guys like as receivers, which is what we want.
0:09And then the really good ones that can do everything like Loveland are actually getting screwed over.
0:09They're getting held into block a ton. And the scheme is actually working against the fantasy production because they want to use his strengths as a blocker.
0:09And in other ways, it's what happened to George Kittle a ton throughout his prime of his career is we didn't run enough routes.
0:09It's happening less to Kittle now at this point, but Bowers, they find a way to just feature him as a wide receiver.
0:09You can say he's different from this conversation. I would argue he's not, I would argue he's a tight end that last year was limited in some ways.
0:09In these regards, he got under a coach that was like, I'm going to find a way to just utilize his skills as a receiver.
0:09And now we can say, because he's being used as a receiver, he's separate, but that's like a descriptive response.
0:09The P the predictive point was, even though he is listed as a tight end and people have said, he's limited as
0:09a blocker and that can cause problems. I've always argued like they will find answers.
0:09Well, now the answers they found found are going to put them in a different category.
0:09But my point on like Sadiq Fannin, Juwan Johnson, Bowers and Juwan Johnson, you get the Noah Fant thing, right?
0:09And so because they want to just jam all these tight ends in the field, Fant's playing and he's doing some blocking
0:09early stuff and he catches two touchdowns. With Bowers, it's a Michael Mayer point.
0:09They're putting multiple tight ends on the field, but like they're using mayor as the, the blocker now.
0:09With, sorry, I did the Juwan Johnson thing with Sadiq.
0:09They were using Jeremy record a lot and he caught like five balls in this game too.
0:09And he looked legitimately interesting, but Sadiq gets freed up by the multi tight end set element that is like, yeah, we
0:09want to put multiple tight ends on the field and see what personnel packages the defenses do.
0:09But also then the guy who can't block, we'll just move off of tight end stuff into more, you know, fantasy friendly stuff.
0:09I feel like you wouldn't call all these guys twinks, but I was sitting here watching and I was like, a lot
0:09of the guys that seem to be this twink category that, that you use last week are the ones that are scoring
0:09all the fantasy points at tight end in week three.
0:09And Colson Loveland, who I was actually really into this draft season in part, because he does everything so well.
0:09And in part, because of some of these routes conversations that we've had, and it's like, this guy's going to stay on the field.
0:09He's a 22 year old star. They've used him a bunch late last year.
0:09I got to be optimistic about him. There's no way he's going to come off the field.
0:09All this type of stuff that we talk about with tight ends works in his favor.
0:09It's working against his fantasy production. Is it not?
0:09So I definitely think it is with Loveland. I want to address the Bowers thing first.
0:09Cause I, I, I don't think it's descriptive because like I almost read like the data mayor got extended.
0:09This was what I put out a tweet thread that said, I'm seeing a lot of people talk about the rise of
0:0912 personnel or say, that's a lot of money for a backup tight end.
0:09In my opinion, both of those missed the point entirely.
0:09Bowers is literally one of one as a tight end in air quotes, who's a high level primary pass catcher and who can't block inline regularly.
0:09There is no other tight end that fits both of those descriptions.
0:09Mayers isn't a backup tight end and playing mayor and Bowers is not 12 personnel.
0:09For instance, compare Bowers and mayor to Loveland and Komet playing base 12 offense with Loveland and Komet would be an actual choice.
0:10You could be a base 11 team with Loveland in line and three receivers.
0:10If you prefer, that's not an actual option with Bowers.
0:10It's better to think of Bowers as an elite wide receiver provides additional versatility.
0:10If you ask him to block in line as a second tight end, rather than a head end, you could split up
0:10wide 12 personnel is a meaningless categorization without, but anyway, I went on, but my point is that Bowers is like, Bowers is literally Drake London.
0:10Yeah. He's Pukinokua actually in this offense is the way that I wrote it up.
0:10Like, I think he's the LA version. Like people were like, is he going to be, is he going to be Clint Kubiasa JSN?
0:10It's more Pukinokua. It's more of this big physical guy that actually does motion in, can, can block a little bit off
0:10like a wide receiver coming into block. But sorry, I wasn't trying to say you didn't, cause I think you're great at this stuff.
0:10I want to be clear. Like I, it does not shock me at all that you had that.
0:10I think we talked about, I was, it's unfair to, to reference something that Max may have written about when he's not here to defend himself.
0:10Cause he would probably have great context too. I think we've talked about back to Bowers rookie year.
0:10Some of this stuff, you and I have had this conversation over the course of years and, and Max, I think has
0:10some concerns about Bowers sticking from that. And you didn't share those concerns from the rookie.
0:10I remember talking to you and you were like, I don't really share those concerns because I see Bowers being a one-of-one receiver.
0:10Like you just said. Yeah. But my point was that there are people that, about Bowers.
0:10Okay. But there are people that look at, so Bowers maybe as a separate one.
0:10I thought there was people that had shared that about Bowers, but there are people that look at tight ends in this
0:10way that I think sometimes miss the fantasy actionability of it.
0:10It doesn't mean their point about how good the tight end is for the real team isn't wrong, isn't correct, but the
0:10fantasy like, or, or maybe they're not missing that because maybe they're not doing fantasy analysis.
0:10I don't think Max explicitly does. He's trying to teach people about the 10 end position and he's doing a great job.
0:10I think there's ways that people translate that to fantasy inaccurately.
0:10And so that's where, this is the nuance of mine and yours discussion on this that has gone on for multiple years
0:10now before we had the long view, but just to like bring the listeners in, I want to let you respond to
0:10what I said, but I just wanted to add that context.
0:10I was not trying to say that you didn't predict the Bowers thing.
0:10No, that's, that's totally fair. I just, I wanted to emphasize that because I think Bowers, the difference to me between Bowers
0:10and all of the rest of these move tight ends is that like, like, I think Brock Bowers is not just good
0:10enough to be like justifiable to play ahead of a slot receiver, but he is like, he's good enough to be the
0:10best pass catcher on a very effective NFL passing offense.
0:10And I don't think that the only other tight end that I would put in that category is maybe Trey McBride, but McBride brings more as a blocker.
0:10Like there's, there's no one else who is both like unable to block well enough to play consistently in line, but also
0:10just good enough to just be the number one wide receiver on like any NFL team.
0:10And Bowers is so unique in that regard that I, I mean, he was playing, he barely lined up even at tight end.
0:10He was barely even attached to the formation this week.
0:10Now I, I will concede that Chip Kelly showed an incredible lack of imagination last year and used him at times.
0:10Frustratingly where he didn't use him this way. And that was extremely tilting, but I'm, I'm very glad that Clint Kubiak has,
0:10I think correctly assessed that no Bowers is just wide receiver one and mayor is tight end one.
0:10Like that, that's how they're, they're being used. Anyways, I wonder about the other guy.
0:10Which is sick. Week three was awesome. Like watching Brock Bowers, like he had a catch on each of their first six possessions.
0:10He had three catches on the first possession. The entire offense was built.
0:10He caught his TD even after this point, the entire, it wasn't just like the passing game or he's a focal point.
0:10The entire offense was built around Brock Bowers being wide receiver one.
0:10Like you said, the first, first drive, he catches an out, uh, like a short out, quick out on the first play.
0:10And then he catches like an intermediate in breaking route.
0:10And then he ends up catching a curl later in the drive.
0:10He caught multiple of these in breakers that are like off play action.
0:10Sometimes the different things that are very similar to the Puka in break, like intermediate in breaking routes that everyone talks about with Puka.
0:10I remember talking to Robert Mays a few years ago when I was really optimistic about Kyle pits and Zach Robinson going there.
0:10And one of the things he and I were, were excited, like shared enthusiasm on was that maybe Kyle pits would get
0:10to you be used in this, uh, Puka in a cool way after Robinson came from LA on these intermediate in breakers.
0:10We didn't get that from Kyle pits under Zach Robinson to the, to that degree.
0:10We did get that 100% under Clint Kubiak for Brock Bowers this week.
0:10We also got like, there was a third down in the second half where they lined him up one-on-one on the, on
0:10the perimeter and ran just a go route against a cornerback, um, Kool-Aid McKinstry and threw a back shoulder and just let Brock Bowers go winning one-on-one.
0:10Like he's a wide receiver, like a vertical who catches a 20 yard pass, comes back to the ball, goes to the
0:10ground to make the play shows that all the receiving skills that you could possibly need against a corner in one-on-one on the boundary.
0:10Like you're basically like Mike Evans at that point.
0:10Like, yeah, he's not quite as fast as some of the like fastest receivers, but there's no reason he can't do Mike Evans stuff on the perimeter.
0:10Or again, Puka isn't like the, he's obviously incredibly athletic, but isn't like the fastest, you know, wide receiver in the world.
0:10So it's, it's just like, it's, he's playing wide receiver to your point.
0:10He's playing a big wide receiver position. The, the, the varied usage on powers was like one of the biggest storylines of week three.
0:10It was so, so fun. Sorry, I've cut you off again.
0:10I just, you got me excited. I mean, just, just to emphasize the power stuff.
0:10I mean, cause you can't emphasize it enough. It was so cool.
0:10He had, he had a 43% slot rate. He had a 34% inline rate.
0:10So that's, that's 75% of his snaps. He was slot or sorry.
0:10I misspoke 43% slot rate, 34% wide rate, a 20% inline rate.
0:10So 80% of his snaps, he, and then he had the rest were in the backfield.
0:10So like 75% of his snaps, he's playing basically the same role that like Amon raw plays or Puka plays like there,
0:10or London, like sometimes they're in the slot. Sometimes they're out wide, but like, he's a move flanker.
0:10And then like occasionally they attach him to the formation as like a, as a changeup basically.
0:10And Michael Mayer played 61 of 70 snaps. Like that's as many snaps as any starting tight end in the NFL plays.
0:10Basically like they, their roles were like, like, obviously their roles impact one another in the sense of when you add an
0:10elite talent, there's less targets for Michael Mayer, but like Brock Bowers impacts Michael Mayer's target share the way Amon raw impacts
0:10Sam Laporta's target share, but like he doesn't impact it the way that like Michael Mayer is a backup tight end now.
0:10Anyways, the Loveland point. Yeah, I think I wrote about this this week.
0:10I would maybe like put the cause and effect slightly differently in terms of the, like the blocking elements.
0:10But I think a huge thing is just the, the bears clearly have like other guys that they can get involved, right?
0:10Luther Burden is leading them in first three targets by, by a wide margin.
0:10They haven't really been using Rome that much, but they theoretically can.
0:10And for whatever reason, they're really enjoying using Khalif Raymond and it's working.
0:10So I can't even say that it's like that.
0:10Like, it's not like a terrible thing that they're doing.
0:10It's really frustrating thing, but it's working for them.
0:10And so like Loveland snaps have been, yeah, completely fine.
0:10But you're right. That his route rates been down for two straight weeks.
0:10And I thought that it was very explainable in week two, based on the Florida stuff.
0:10If you like really want to squint, maybe you can say like, Oh, you know, backup quarterback, they're trying to increase the protection week three, whatever.
0:10I guess like, even if there are excuses for it and if it rebounds in other weeks, it's, it's, it's clear that
0:10because he has a level of blocking skill and because they have other guys in the offense, they are quite okay with
0:10like, like minimizing his receiving role and just running the, the receiver stuff through other people versus building everything around him.
0:10And I think it's something that I like really missed in trying to assess him and Rome and burden like relative to
0:10each other in a fairly positionally agnostic way. Um, in that, like there is no world in which they are going to
0:10keep Luther burden or Roma duns a into block, but they can choose to do that with Colson Loveland.
0:10And then that hurts his route rate, even in plays that he's on the field for like his past block rate was bizarrely high the last two weeks.
0:10It's not really something that they did with the porta, which is why I wasn't that worried about it.
0:10But then part of it is that I also thought that they would be running base 12 and they haven't been really
0:10like Cole Komet's played, but he's played on some rundowns at Brock, um, at Colson Loveland's expense.
0:10They've played some 12 personnel, but they've played a lot of 11 and Kelly Freeman's been playing a ton.
0:10And that was something I really did not see coming, but I think there's definitely something to your point of like the
0:10tight ends that can be used more versately teams are using them more versately.
0:10And that has like positives and negatives for fantasy.
0:10I mean, the positives are you're more likely to be like the, the play that Loveland should have scored a touchdown on,
0:10um, is like, I would say the, the upside case of being that Y tight end where you're going to get those
0:10chances to do some of the block and release play action stuff near the goal line, because you're going to be on the field in those situations.
0:10And a lot of the past catching only tight ends aren't on the field in those situations.
0:10Um, but the downside is like, there was several plays that I was watching where it's like, Oh, Loveland's is not even going to get a target.
0:10Like he's either held into block or he's running a route, but he's like blocking and releasing.
0:10And that's why maybe that's why like his PFF, his route rate is a lot higher than his fantasy points route rate,
0:10because there were numerous plays where he like did eventually get out into a route, but he wasn't really doing anything.
0:10Uh, I didn't notice that gap, but I was just going to add the context that his route rate has been fought.
0:10Like in week one, at least he had the routes, but like it's, it's cratered.
0:10That's why I'm really concerned about some. Yeah. It's cratered.
0:10And it's, and it's not like his snap rate is really, it's the past block rate is really spiked.
0:10It's, it's spiked. Um, yeah, two straight weeks and the one not being the floor is weak.
0:10Like it's, I don't think it's going to stay that low, but I, I think it will clearly, clearly it's, they're very
0:10willing to make, to not clearly very willing to do this and they don't feel need to build the passing game around him.
0:10Um, and it's, it's, it's super concerning. I like, I would say craft is dealing with some of the same stuff too,
0:10in green Bay where they're having online issues and, um, and they're, they're building the past game more to the wide receivers and, and less around him.
0:10And there was like the quote of the, they lost to O lineman in that New York jets game.
0:10There was a quote where they, they had, they said they had a sideline conversation over whether they should just get Tucker
0:10craft to play a right tackle in that game.
0:10Um, instead of calling up whatever the third string offensive lineman was, it was like, yeah, that's, that's the downside of, I
0:10guess, having too good of blocking ability. I think that the, like the, like the, the move tight ends, like, I mean,
0:10how I've typically described it as like, it, I don't think it's like necessarily like a, I think it's too simplistic to
0:10say that it's good or it's bad. Like, I just think it adds volatility in both directions.
0:10Like you get the upside of it. I mean, I, I would still say like Jawan, for instance, like he's been super productive.
0:10I would say he's kind of a sell high.
0:10Like he's running like 60% of the road. So it's not what his role was last year.
0:10And it's hurting his target shares target share for the year is like 14%.
0:10I mean, he's, he's still been productive. He scored three touchdowns.
0:10He had the two this week, but like, I don't, I'm really grateful for the Jawan Johnson points as a person who
0:10draft a lot of them in best ball. I don't know.
0:10Like, do you think he's going to be a top like five to 10 tight end rest of season on a 14% target share?
0:10Like with, with Jordan Tyson coming back? Like I, I mostly don't.
0:10It's not like we've seen his targets per out run massively spike as his snaps have been reduced.
0:10So I, I think it is a concern. For Fannin, like my argument was that it wasn't really a concern this year
0:10because they have no other option at tight end.
0:10I maintain that it's like a long-term risk factor.
0:10And I guess it's just, it's, to me, it's like kind of just an asterisk.
0:10It's like, you, you never really know exactly how it's going to manifest because I think it just adds volatility to the profile.
0:10So like, sometimes it can be nice that every time they run on a pass play, they're getting out in a route,
0:10but I, it also, you do lose routes. Like, you know, like, like, Dalton Kincaid's had a great season this year.
0:10He's also had previous seasons that have been completely derailed by a lack of route participation.
0:10And I would still argue that this year, you'd prefer him run 85% of the routes instead of 70% of the routes, right?
0:10I mean, 70 is going to be more than good enough.
0:10But, like, if Dalton Kincaid has a really great season this year, and he's the one that goes around three next year,
0:10like that, that's a potential risk factor I think that would be relevant to him.
0:10So, I, I don't know. I think you're, I think it's a give and take.
0:10Like, what you're, what you're gaining in running a route, like a real route more often in pass plays, you are still
0:10giving back, I think, in not being out there for other pass plays.
0:10But, the end result probably means that like, a lot of these guys are winding up in the 70 range.
0:10Um, versus like the 85 to 90 range. And I mean, then there's like a floor where, you know, like Eli Stowers is just not playing.
0:10And that's not, I'm not saying that's going to happen for his whole career.
0:10So, I can't wait till he follows this trend and has a two TD game.
0:10And then you have to respond to that in a few weeks.
0:10Yeah. I mean, I, I, I also just don't know if he's that good as a receiver, but, um, maybe he's not,
0:10uh, but anyways, I mean, I guess like every one of these guys, I just think, it's, it's hard to map trends onto them.
0:10Like, I also think Sadiq, one of the things I really dislike about a lot of the tight end blocking conversation is
0:10that it seems like it divides every tight end into guys who can block and guys who can't.
0:10And I don't think that that's remotely fair. I think that there's like, obviously this blocking ability, like any other ability is there's gradients to it.
0:10And so like someone, there's people who are very bad at it and people who are great at it.
0:10And there's several gradients in the middle. And like, like Sadiq is an example of a guy who I think there are
0:10blocking limitations on because he's not that big, but he's also super physical and he blocks really, really hard.
0:10And like, I felt like they're kind of two paths to him succeeding coming out of college, which is one, like he
0:10is such a dynamic athletic players receiver that he's able to just smash in a flex tight end role, which is what he's doing so far.
0:10I also think it's possible that he becomes a guy who plays 95% of the snaps over time, but he came in
0:10super young and he has the child. That wouldn't surprise me at all.
0:10So anyway, I think it's really nuanced. And I think every one of these plans you have to look at in the
0:10context of their offense and like, who else can your team throw to?
0:10And like, anyway, that's been my whole point though, because when we've talked about it, a lot of the times you've been,
0:10I mean, I don't want to make this like a, an hour long conversation because we want to have a lot more
0:10stuff to go into, but I felt like when we've talked about it and we're already at three hours, it's hilarious.
0:10Like even last week when you were doing the classification thing, that the implication of the classification thing of like these three
0:10classifications is like, there isn't that much nuance. And I'm not saying that you have like shied away from the nuance, but
0:10at times when we've talked about certain guys, like maybe you, or maybe I've heard this from other places from people who use similar, arguments.
0:10But part of the reason I push back on this line of thinking is it's like an end all be all point.
0:10It's like, this guy's just not going to be on the field enough, or he's not going to hit enough route rate.
0:10Like he's not going to hit a threshold of routes.
0:10He's got to hit at least this many routes.
0:10It's got to be at least 80% routes. If it's, if it's not 70% routes, if it's not this, it can't be good enough.
0:10And I, the point that I feel like I've been making to you for three years, when we've had these conversations is
0:10there are nuances to each of the individual cases.
0:10I'm always saying that like, don't misapply the aggregate to the specific on, not on this point specifically, but that's like one of my broad points.
0:10I feel like that's the position I've always been in.
0:10And that's part of when I'm bringing this up to you here.
0:10And in your, when I'm hearing your response, I'm like, that's what I've been saying is that, that there are a lot of ways to get there.
0:10And this is not that relevant of a point because there's a lot of alter the Juwan Johnson thing.
0:10You mentioned market share. Like I would push back on that as a minor point when Tyler Shuck literally is leading the league in pass attempts.
0:10Like it's the only bad stat for Juwan Johnson right now.
0:10Like he still has 19 targets. It's probably one of the top like tight end raw target number.
0:10Chris Alave is leading the NFL in targets. Like, so you're, you're looking at a stat where you have, uh, uh, the
0:10number one passing attempt team and a very dominant number one.
0:10Like, yeah, the ancillary pieces don't have massive target shares.
0:10That's part of it. But Juwan Johnson's looked awesome.
0:10He's been a key part of their passing game.
0:11He's second on the team in receiving yards. The case I kept making was he was third in the NFL in receiving yards last year.
0:11And people are acting like he can't sort of back that up.
0:11And I don't know that you were arguing against this one specifically.
0:11Again, I'm, I'm putting stuff on you. That is not the, the nuance that you put into the conversation.
0:11So I want to be clear, but Juwan Johnson is like, he's tight end two right now.
0:11He's been very productive. He's second on the team in receiving by a yard over Valey.
0:11Valey has been very involved, uh, as well. But Juwan Johnson has been very good because of his receiving skills.
0:11He's also been like, he's forced a lot of missed tackles.
0:11I haven't even looked at his stat, but just by watching the games, he's been really good after the catch.
0:11Cause he's a good player. And that was like a big part of my point was like good players that get yards, they get yards.
0:11And like, that's, that's the thing that we've done with the long view stuff as, as it relates to like college profiles
0:11at, at receiver and tight end, but like guys that produce and running back guys that produce, they produce.
0:11Like we, we like to see production in college and then it tends to translate to the NFL.
0:11We want to bet on players that are productive.
0:11And my whole point with Juwan Johnson, even though he's a 30 year old was that even though he was, he has
0:11a bunch of limitations, he's, he's one of the best examples of this.
0:11Cause he's a literal former wide receiver, you know, converted tight end that early in his career was like still learning the
0:11position developed into it later in his career, had a great year last year.
0:11And then they went and got other tight ends.
0:11And I felt like a lot of the discussion for Juwan Johnson, all off season, people were saying he's not going to
0:11play enough because of this, this is this line of thinking was clear to me.
0:11And the fact that Juwan Johnson was a top 10 tight end last year, who was literally third, literally third in receiving
0:11yardage at the position last year behind only training, Brian and the Kyle pits.
0:11He wasn't that far behind cop pits. He had almost 900 yards.
0:11He had over a hundred targets and people were drafting him tight end 18 or something.
0:11He had only three touchdowns was still tight and eight last year were three touchdowns and was like 10 points behind tight end three.
0:11I'm looking at it right now. And now he's throwing some touchdowns.
0:11And I mean, I'm just, I'm pointing out the, the kind of hilarity and the fact that he only had three TDS all of last year.
0:11And that's why people were like missing a lot of the production.
0:11And now one of your points was like, I'm not saying that you're wrong and pointing out that he scored a lot
0:11of touchdowns and it's going to regress. But one of the funny things is like, now he scored too many touchdowns.
0:11And so that like that production doesn't count. I spent all off season being like, his production was better than even as
0:11finish, but his finish was tight end eight and he's going tight in 18.
0:11And the only explanation for it was they brought in Fant and Delp and they're not going to play him.
0:11They're going to play those guys. And I mean, is that not like the biggest, like, I don't know.
0:11I mean, John Johnson is literally my most drafted player, like quite literally number one.
0:11So I'm, I was in on Jawan this year, but I'm, I'm less in.
0:11Well, then I'm not asking you to defend that, but, but, but the price, the market's price on Jawan Johnson now than
0:11I was at the start of the season, despite all of the production, because he's, he's been third on the team and target share behind Valey.
0:11And by three, by three targets coming back. Okay.
0:11Tyson's coming back. I'll, I'll accept that. Like, I mean, to me, theory of the case was he is going to be
0:11the clear number two player behind Chris Alave until Tyson comes back.
0:11And that hasn't really been the case. Everyone on the saints has been blowing up, but they're not going to average 43 pass attempts per game.
0:11He's been way better than Devon Valey. Like, I don't want to do a watch the games point, but like he's, he's
0:11been really, he's got a lower eight out. He's been really good with the ball in his hands.
0:11Valey's made some really good plays. He made an awesome diving catch in week one, but he's also had some, he's left
0:11some efficiency on the table, but yes, I agree with you that Valey has been like the whole offense is blowing up.
0:11The reason I would say that, like the, how point is I want access to the saints right now.
0:11I feel like they're a rocket ship and a really good fantasy offense.
0:11We were talking about this when we're talking about the running backs.
0:11And I was like, I gave the whole point about Kellen Moore.
0:11It's very similar to the point. You got me on with the chargers a little bit ago where I wasn't really thinking
0:11about how much better or how much worse the chargers offense have gotten.
0:11I would ask you, are you thinking about how much better the saints offense looks after three games than you were thinking coming into the year?
0:11Cause I still think you're doing the thing. You're, you're overstating the role with like what his limitations are like, look at what's in front of you.
0:11Look at all the production. He's the tight end too.
0:11He's a tight end too. How could you not be higher on him after three games?
0:11I don't think that the saints are going to be as great rest of season as they've been through three weeks.
0:11I mean, I agree with that. They're obviously not going to be, but he's like, he's got to regress.
0:11Like, well, this is a question not of whether they're going to regress.
0:11It's of how much is it? Like, like I, it's not as though, but this regression is, is like, it's, it's not
0:11like a tree McBride thing where his targets per route run was lower because he ran a gazillion more routes.
0:11And so you would expect that as the routes compress, the per route goes up.
0:11Like I, this is, he, he's third in the target pecking order.
0:11And the main reason he's third in the target pecking order, he is.
0:11Vele has 22 targets. Juwan has 19. Well, let me, let me finish this.
0:11They both have 15 catches. Juwan has a catch percentage.
0:11That's 10 percentage points higher. He does have a lower a dot.
0:11He has a yards per target at a lower a dot.
0:11That's more than one full yard. Better. He has a 9.1 yards per target.
0:11We know efficiency breeds volume. He's been so good.
0:11I guess part of my point is like, I, I think it would be legitimately shocking if he doesn't continue to get volume going forward.
0:11I agree with you. Like at a snapshot in time, his current target share is something, but like, that's not like he's
0:11been so, such a big part of why this offense has been very good.
0:11And Vele has been good too. And a lot of his been the best, but like the, the, the receiving yards for
0:11the team are 375, 173 for Johnson, 172 for Vele.
0:11And then fans fourth at 66 as that, you know, the, the secondary tight end and then ETN at 51, who, by the way, ETN is on IR.
0:11I just saw that is a breaking news as we're recording.
0:11Kind of a bummer. Bryce Lance is doing nothing.
0:11He's the other guy running all the routes. He has eight targets, 50 yards.
0:11Well, I, I, I, I, he's, he's technically third, just in a market share sense.
0:11He's not third in yards. He's tied for second in catches.
0:11He's way more efficient. They're clearly going to want to feature him more.
0:11And even if the two B doesn't even fit for me, like he's two a, like Vele has got a couple extra targets.
0:11They're very, very close. And there's no four. Like there's like, who's four?
0:11Like, well, two is coming in and like two weeks.
0:11Is he back in two weeks? Is he going to be back in two, two, three, four.
0:11I mean, we don't know for sure. It's gonna be two weeks, but like reasonably imminently, he's eligible.
0:11He was out for like, I thought he was out for like eight weeks.
0:11He's eligible to be back in two. The reporting is, has been positive.
0:11There was like a blurb that I think it was Chris Alave was on K Adams show.
0:11It's like all speculative, but there, there seems to be positive momentum that he's going to be back at the shorter end of his timetable.
0:11It's going to be, he could play as soon as week five.
0:11Maybe it's more week six, week seven, week eight.
0:11At some point in the early to mid season, Tyson probably coming back.
0:11And like, yeah, I think it's a fair point too.
0:11I, and so like to me, it's so Juwan Johnson at a 14% target share, I guess.
0:11Like, so your case would be, I can't imagine that you think he's going to be the tight end to on a 14% target share all year.
0:11I don't know. I don't, but I also don't think he's going to be at a 14% target share all year.
0:11Right. He's been this effective. That's why I was asking.
0:11I think, do you think it's going to go up?
0:11He's tied for fifth in the league in, in targets, small tight ends with Sam Laporta, only behind McBride, Schultz, likely in Warren.
0:11Like the 14% target share point is about targets, but as raw targets are tied for fifth best in the NFL, like I've already made this point.
0:11It's because they've thrown so many passes. I, it's the only stat that is negative Juwan Johnson.
0:11And I, I just, I'm not trying to like put you like super on the defensive.
0:11And part of the reason I'm hammering this point so much.
0:11I fundamentally disagree on this. I'm happy. Put me on the defensive.
0:11Well, I think it's indicative of a larger issue that I think is.
0:11I see in fantasy. And I'm not trying to put all that on you.
0:11I think people talk about stats that are so divorced from what's actually happening.
0:11And it's like, what, what are you watching? There's so much production in three games with Juwan Johnson.
0:11And it's like, you want to, you just, I mentioned the only stat was a target share and you just brought up target share again.
0:11You want to keep saying target share. That's fine.
0:11But like this guy is again, I don't think he's going to be tight in two, but that's not the bar he needs to clear.
0:11The reason he's your most own tight end is because he was going tight on 18.
0:11But like, I don't think he's going to be better than maybe even like tight end 10, but he's like, I was
0:11hopeful for that coming in, but like he was going way, way low.
0:11We were both obviously very into him. We talked about him a lot on the show.
0:11We both haven't ranked very effectively, but even if I like tight and 10, maybe concedes too much, frankly, of the point,
0:11part of what you're arguing is like against a tight end to current standing, which is I'm emphasizing for effect.
0:11Cause he's, he's very narrowly ahead of Kelsey and kill and some of, and Kincaid's fifth right now.
0:11They're all within five points or four points there in PPR.
0:11Um, and yeah, he has the three touchdowns and we don't expect him to get three all of last year.
0:11We don't expect him to be that big of a player.
0:11But what I'm talking about more is like, he's been so integral to them looking so good in their, in their offense.
0:11He's made some key place. Like after week one, I wrote negatively about him and week two and week three, it was
0:11like, dude, he's making big plays for them in big spots.
0:11He's making guys miss. He's like converting key first downs.
0:11And I do feel like he's still kind of a bias against him about the usage, like, or like the style of
0:11player he is and what the routes mean and all that stuff.
0:11And, and then like, just like, like seeing what he's actually doing through, through glasses of like, it can't sustain.
0:11I see that a lot in fantasy where people are just like this thing.
0:11That's clearly happening. Isn't happy. And I, I don't know.
0:11I, I never understood why I was going tight in 18 and now he's, he's scoring as the number two tight end.
0:11And I'm not saying he's going to continue, but like to hear you be like, yeah, I actually think worse of him now.
0:11I'm just like, what, what is like, what is actually happening?
0:11Fantasy points matter that more than target share. Like, do you see what I'm saying?
0:11Like efficiency tends to breed volume for a reason.
0:11He's been awesome. He's been awesome. I mean, I don't know why I'd be biased against the player.
0:11Who's my most drafted player. Like if anything, I should be seeing it through rose colored glass.
0:11I, it's not like I'm, I'm biased against, I love Juwan Johnson and I have him everywhere.
0:11So I'm, I'm enjoying the points. I like, okay.
0:11I won't hold you to the standard of tight end too.
0:11So let's, let's maybe like, where, where would you have him roughly?
0:11Like we did this with love. Like how many tight ends did you prefer over him right now?
0:11Like, I don't know. Like, so like, then maybe we're not even that far apart, but I, the, yeah, I don't think we are.
0:11I don't think we are. And I, that's why I keep saying, I don't think I'm really even like arguing with you
0:11because important context to even you saying you'd have him lower than where you had him.
0:11Preseason is you had him like, I had him like tight end 10 preseason.
0:11Yeah. Yeah. We both had him. We both had him as a low and tight end one.
0:11We talked about this. We both had him really, really high.
0:11Um, and that's, that's awesome. Like, like great call, but I still like, it's just the, the very specific point of like,
0:11when a guy starts this hot, I don't care about target share.
0:11I don't care about the peripherals. I don't care about like all of the stuff that we talk about in fantasy.
0:11People overstate these like little, this is the nuanced point that like, I don't even want to put on you.
0:11Cause you're like one of the sharpest analysts in the entire space, but people miss the force for the trees to do
0:11the, like, this is the way that I, when everything's a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
0:11This is the way I analyze players. I analyze players through usage and analyze players through market share and analyze through players through all these different things.
0:11And I'm not saying this is you at all.
0:11I 100% I'm not. Cause you were in on Johnson and it's very relevant that you were so high preseason that you made that statement.
0:11I just, it just shocks me a little bit to say that you would be less in on a guy who's, who's hitting like this.
0:11Like at a certain point, we should just pick up and start the players that are scoring points.
0:11We were talking about this a little bit with a quarterback position on one of our co-man teams.
0:11And I'm not saying you disagreed with that either.
0:11I am not. I'm not, I'm making this as a broad point to the fantasy industry.
0:11I'm not making this as an anti Jacob point, but there are so many things in the modern like fantasy landscape.
0:11And it is like a thing that I see as an issue.
0:11And I'm like sensitive to, as somebody who's been doing this for a really, really long time where it's like, I'm going
0:11to tell you that things are like different than what's actually happening.
0:11Like what actually production is happening. I'm going to use all these advanced stats, which I use to their important context.
0:11That's how we get to layers of stuff, but people, again, it's a miss of forest for the trees point.
0:11It's not that they're not valuable. People substitute what's actually happening for like a bunch of advanced stats and say, like I
0:11was right anyway, or something to that effect. And it's like, that's not how this works.
0:11Like, it's not actually, it's not better to, to be good at the advanced.
0:11Like people, like I've seen a lot of people mock this as well.
0:11And they say like, whatever, right? Like I made a joke about Loveland is doing great.
0:11My points per pass blocking snaps league. Cause he's, it's driving me a little nuts, but the point is the miss the
0:11forest for the trees point is really what, I mean, I think I've sort of made the point and we don't have
0:11to agree at the end of the day. And, and you believing that John Johnson's production is unsustainable and thus you're a
0:11little bit lower on him than a really lofty preseason expectation.
0:11Doesn't, you know, doesn't, it is not incongruent with what I'm saying anyway.
0:11Uh, yeah. I mean, I'm sure we would like both agree that it's, it's obviously like quite literally unsustainable in the sense
0:11of like, I don't think that, I don't think that either of us would expect that if he continues like at this
0:11market share, that he is going to be the tight end too.
0:11So the question is like, how, how much is he going to regress?
0:11Um, because I think we would both agree it's, it's some.
0:11And then the other option is like, does the market share just change?
0:11I mean, if, if Tyson wasn't a looming factor, and maybe he won't be a factor, like maybe Tyson, um, ends up
0:11not returning or returning later than anticipated, or he returns that he immediately re aggravates his hamstring, or he isn't as good
0:11as I think he's going to be. Um, like then I would be inclined to agree.
0:11I, I, so to the specific Tyson and target share point, cause I haven't even addressed that.
0:11I haven't even engaged with it. I'm thinking about it now on the terms that you're thinking about it.
0:11Johnson's 14%, the way that I would describe it.
0:11I don't see a lot of ways that it can go a lot lower.
0:11He's like the tight end. Obviously it's fantasy too.
0:11They kind of play different roles. It's, it's not the same, but it's, it's vaguely similar to what you were talking about with Bowers and, um, mayor.
0:11Like they're, they're both guys are playing. Jawan Johnson's out there a lot.
0:11His, his routes have like week one, I was concerned about the routes.
0:11The routes went up in weeks two and three, if I'm not mistaken.
0:11Um, I mean, that's what I remember. I think signals, I'm pretty sure they were like 59%.
0:11Then they were like low seventies, like 72, 73 or something like that.
0:11That's what I remember from signals, but I don't have it in front of me.
0:11So you're, you're pulling it up now. It seems like, but the, the, the point about the, the target, target sharing Tyson
0:11response, like returning while you looked that up, that the point that I would make would be, um, that I think most
0:11of Tyson stuff will come directly at the expense of Valet, who has not actually looked as like, he had a really good game in week one.
0:11And I felt like he has not looked as good.
0:11And I feel like Tyson's going to just, you know, ultimately get ready enough that he's going to take over that role.
0:11Um, I guess they had a decent second game too.
0:11I didn't like what he did in that Raiders game.
0:11I thought he had a really rough game. Um, the, uh, that's that second receiving role.
0:11I mean, Valet is still going to play. Um, but I don't, I guess I just don't think it like, it's not like, Oh, John Johnson's at 14%.
0:11Tyson's not even here. And now Tyson's here. And we have to move that down.
0:11I actually think it's probably going to come from Chris Alave to a degree as well.
0:11Cause Chris Alave is like target shares just been massive, right?
0:11It's like almost 30%, even though they're at the, the thing, the point about them being at the, at the very high,
0:11uh, attempt number is there's actually statistical proof of this.
0:12My guy, um, Brian Malone back in the day showed that, uh, at road of his that, and I used to talk
0:12about this and I remember him doing the research on it.
0:12And I, I, uh, past offices that throw for more volume, it's harder to consolidate the target share at lower volume offenses.
0:12It's like, Jackson Smith and Jigba and the Seahawks don't throw that much.
0:12And you know, like Drake London had 70 something percent of the receiving yards for the Falcons this week.
0:12They also had the lowest pass rate in a game by any team this year.
0:12And I think since the beginning of last year, they had like a 37% pass rate.
0:12Penix barely threw the ball, but when he threw the ball, it went to London every time.
0:12And like, that's, that's, that's why like they're a run based offense.
0:12They're only looking to London when they throw, when you throw a ton, you got to spread it around some, you can't
0:12just throw to one guy every time. It's just like, there's a functional logical response for this as well.
0:12So Chris Alava having like nearly a 28% target share in an offense, leading the league in pass attempts is massive.
0:12And I do think that's going to regress. If you have a Jordan Tyson level receiver alongside, I do think that's like bad for Juwan too.
0:12But I guess my point is like, the default for me right now is 14% is, is clearly low for a guy that's been really efficient, really productive.
0:12And the game, like Kellen Moore is going to go and game plan for ways to get the ball in Juwan Johnson's hands more.
0:12They just lost their starting running back. Like this is a guy that's doing things that is working in the offense.
0:12It's why efficiency leads to volume. My default for him, maybe it wouldn't be 20% plus, but at least be like 17 or 18%.
0:12And then maybe from there, like going forward based on where he's been, like Ben or whatever.
0:12And the volume may come down. And so maybe then like that, that boosts it anyway, because things get a little bit more consolidated.
0:12But from there, like maybe Tyson pulls from it.
0:12Maybe I don't know, but I, my point is like, I'm not trying to make a, I'm not trying to be too
0:12precise about predicting the target share, but to answer your question about the target sharing, where I think it would wind up,
0:12my expectation would be going forward immediately in a very short term before Tyson's back, that this target share will rise.
0:12That would be my like clear expectation. And then maybe Tyson brings that back a little, but Tyson would mostly pull from Valey.
0:12He'd mostly take all of Valey's routes, or if Valey doesn't lose the routes, then Bryce Lance does.
0:12But then Valey loses like targets. Like it's like, I don't think it would just go to all the receivers.
0:12Cause again, John Johnson's been a really efficient player and he was really good last year.
0:12Like this is, he's a, I, my concern for Johnson.
0:12And part of the reason I wasn't on him on every single draft was that people were right.
0:12And he wouldn't actually be a big part of the passing game, even though he was third in the NFL and tight
0:12end yards last year, that they'd have other plans and they'd go to other guys.
0:12And it looked that way a little bit in week one.
0:12He didn't get a lot of his production until the second half of week one.
0:12I think actually it was all in the fourth quarter and overtime.
0:12And so I wrote it up as noise in week one of stealing signals.
0:12I was like, I'm concerned. John Johnson didn't do anything through three quarters, but then they were like, Oh wait, fourth quarter and overtime.
0:12John Johnson was great. We got to find ways to use this guy.
0:12And they mostly have done that since. And it's been like, yeah, he's one of our best players in the passing game.
0:12And we're going to focus on our best players and we're going to find ways to use them and highlight their strengths and all these things.
0:12And that's why I'm just not like that focused.
0:12One of the things with target shares, like if he doesn't have a catch for three quarters in week one, like that's part of it.
0:12Right. Like is like last week's target. Like, I don't know.
0:12I guess week two was his lowest target. His target shares, I think pretty consistent.
0:12I think he, he, I think he said a season high this week, but it was still, I think under 20.
0:12His road, his road. But you get the point I was making.
0:12Yeah. But his road share was still higher in week one than any other week because he, because they put so much time in catch up mode.
0:12And I remember you had this note in signals and I thought it was a really good note where you'd said like
0:12you, you, I think you had said something to the effect of, I think his route share is a little bit higher
0:12than like it would have been because he was the clear tight end.
0:12And in that like total circus mode at the end where they were just passing every single play.
0:12And it felt like he got more involved as the game went on.
0:12He was up at 78 that week, crashed to 57 a week too.
0:12And then he leveled out at 68 last week.
0:12I mean, I think that the plan coming into the season was probably to deemphasize him a little bit based on what
0:12we saw in week one, based on the fact that like last year they lost Foster Moreau.
0:12They didn't have fan. They didn't have dealt. And they used Johnson for the first time in his career as a true, every single down tight end.
0:12And he had a breakout season this year. They added fan.
0:12They added dealt. I thought coming into this season, my expectation for Johnson was, like that.
0:12Okay. Yeah. He has blocking limitations, but without Jordan Tyson, they have pass catching limitations and that those limitations are going to trump the blocking limitations.
0:12And Johnson is going to be in largely the same role he was in last year, more or less.
0:12And that wasn't really the case in week one.
0:12And it became like kind of more apparent that that wasn't the case in week two when they were in less of
0:12like a circus mode, the whole game. But what Johnson has done, especially week two.
0:12And then that really carried over to week three is he's been like a yak God, which wasn't even really his role last year.
0:12Like I thought, like one of the reasons he was third in NFL receiving yards last year is he had abnormally high a dot for tight end.
0:12He was getting a lot of those like seam plays and stuff.
0:12That's been a little bit less. The role he has a 12% area yard share this year, but he's been super impressive as a yak player.
0:12He's over six yards after the catch perception. Which that's like, to me is like a huge point in his favor.
0:12He's doing more stuff. I'm like, dude, this guy's evolving.
0:12It's a huge point in his favor. It's a huge point in his favor.
0:12And I think that that's actually a really great role point for him because it's something that a lot of it does not do.
0:12It's something Tyson does not do. So he has a clear role, I think going forward in the offense as the preeminent
0:12yards after catch threat, because that's, that's like the weakest point of both of their best two wide receivers.
0:12And it's maybe something that they thought they were going to get out of Camara because they kind of tried that in week two.
0:12That was a disaster. And so I think that's a clear like niche for him that is going to stick.
0:12They like, they have still used a lot more of the other tight ends.
0:12And I do think that if they become more 11 personnel focus, it's going to have like some issues.
0:12I guess it's just like, they're going to find ways to keep Jawan Johnson a major part of the offense.
0:12And he's, he's done enough that I'm not worried about it.
0:12Like crashing to zero. I'm very happy about the shares that I have.
0:12Like, I think he's going to be a fringe tight end one from like this point forward.
0:12I guess that doesn't mean that I wouldn't rather him run 90% of the routes, like instead of running, you know, 70% of the routes.
0:12Like I, like if he was, if he was running 90% of the routes, like I do think he would actually potentially
0:12be like a top five tight end. So I, I, I don't know.
0:12I, I don't like it's, I think that the lack of blocking can both be a very like real limiting factor, but
0:12it doesn't have to be a disqualifying factor. And I mean, usually like what I've tried to write about tight ends pretty
0:12consistently is like, like I've, I've maintained that it's, I think it's important to understand the blocking abilities of tight ends so
0:12that you can have some idea of what their role will be like in a vacuum.
0:12But then what's extremely important. And I've always emphasized this is to try and get a feel for the offense.
0:12Um, because like, there are certain offenses where like ultimately this is all about comparative advantages.
0:12Right. And I mean, the toughest part is that like, I have to make a guess of what I think an offense is going to value.
0:12And then the coach is going to have their own idea and the coach's idea in week one might not be their idea in week seven.
0:12And so all of this can, can change, but like in some often, you know, in some offenses, a coach might say,
0:12I don't give a shit about if you can block, I don't have any wide receivers on this team.
0:12So I need a tight end. It's going to go and make plays.
0:12And in some offenses, the coach might say, I have so many good wide receivers that I don't need to play my,
0:12uh, non-blocking tight end because I don't want receiving.
0:12I don't prioritize receiving as much out of the tight end position, but then other coaches, like what I think is happening
0:12with the bears will say, I feel good enough about my wide receivers that I am going to play my, you know,
0:12my, my all around tight end, but I'm going to keep them into pass block.
0:12Like I, it's, I mean, I think it's just a really, really hard position to predict.
0:12Um, because it's so volatile. That's why we spend so much time talking about it.
0:12Is it, it is, there is nuance and it is super hard to, and like you, you've been right on so many
0:12of these tight end debates or conversations that we've had over the past where it's like, yeah.
0:12And one of the things you've said to me before is like, 10 is just weird.
0:12It's like, yeah, it is. I totally, I totally agree with that.
0:12Anyway, I'll let go ahead and finish. But no, I mean, that was, that's pretty much all I was trying to say
0:12is I just think that like you, you go through all 32 teams and you can find examples of like, well, this
0:12tight end is this, this tight end is blocking ability is backfiring.
0:12And then you find another one. And it's like this tight ends, um, lack of blocking ability is keeping them off the field.
0:12But then it's like, well, this tight end is, is they're finding creative ways.
0:12And it's like, I, unless you have access to the coaches meeting, it's, it's almost like an impossible task because once you
0:12kind of see how things work, it feels like the solutions were always staring us in the face the entire time.
0:12Like for instance, the bills decided this year that Dalton Kincaid was going to be a massive part of their passing game.
0:12And they have found really creative ways to accentuate his skillset and mitigate some of the blocking issues.
0:12Like they're, they're running in some of these, um, uh, 11 personnel snaps with him, where he's just motion out, detached from the formation.
0:12And they're either keeping running backs into block or they're like blocking with key on Coleman, because they've decided like Coleman can
0:12block more than your, more than most wide receivers.
0:12And Kincaid's a better receiver than most tight ends.
0:12And so we're going to basically invert it. Like all of these are solutions.
0:12They also could have used those solutions in previous years and they didn't.
0:12So it's like within the same player, we can see examples of where Dalton Kincaid's strengths are helping him, but this is others where it's hurting him.
0:12And it's like, how do you decide at a given year, which it's going to be?
0:12I mean, maybe the answer is just this position is so weird that we should just only ever draft either the very,
0:12very elite tight ends who have proven it so unbelievably unambiguously like Trey McBride and Brock Bowers, or we should just draft
0:12the cheaper ones because it's so hard to predict.
0:12It can happen. Yeah. That's that's right. And that's a greater late conclusion.
0:12I've talked about this, a greater late strategy. Uh, Adam Mazur came up with that name when I was still at CBS.
0:12Cause I would, I was always talking about that or like, that's the way he coined it.
0:12But I, he was like, you, you like a greater late strategy.
0:12And I was like, yeah, I mean, I think, I don't know.
0:12They may have used that a long, a long time prior to me being there, but, um, that I'm not taking credit
0:12for it is all I'm trying to say, but that's the way that I've viewed tight end for, for years since I've,
0:12since I've been at CBS, I've written about it, the newsletter, a bunch of greater late strategies, a huge one.
0:12The, um, the point you were making about, unless we're in the coaches meeting was a, like, this is one.
0:12So I keep saying like, I'm not, I'm not disagreeing with you, but this is one where I am going to say
0:12that, like, I felt like you have simplified our tight end conversation sometimes to like, this can't happen.
0:12Something can't happen because of a player's limitations. The way that you said that would literally like, even if they were circumnavigating
0:12the IR rules to get EI Stowers on IR would literally be a case that in week five, they could have a
0:12game plan for Eli Stowers that surprised us. And in hindsight, we'd look back and go, yeah, that's why they took him in the second round.
0:12And they thought he was worth, he's an athletic freak that they took in the second round.
0:12And they, they actually did have a plan and they circumnavigated some stuff.
0:12But when God got hurt, they got him ramped up behind the scenes and week five, he had this role.
0:12And that's been my point with you. It's ours is like, he's a last round pick on some of the teams that
0:12we took was like, is it possible that this like best jumps in, in combine history, great athleticism and actually a decent receiving production profile.
0:12But I know you have concerns about how that actually came about at the college level, but this position change guy, et
0:12cetera, who a lot of people say can't even block and has all sorts of issues.
0:12And they have limitations in, in camp, but is it possible that they would as an answer for their issues that they
0:12don't have, like they're throwing a Don Tavian wicks as much as they can.
0:12Cause they got nothing that they may want to use that guy that you'd be willing to like stash him in a
0:12tight end premium setting and just see, which we we've cut him because he's on IR and everything.
0:12And I don't think it's probably going to happen for Eli Stowers, but the point is you can still add him for
0:12$1 right now and see if this would happen.
0:12If he, if he does get activated after week four or whatever, is that possible?
0:12And I felt like your response has been definitively.
0:12It is not possible. And I feel like what you're saying on this episode is it's totally possible.
0:12Well, of course it's possible. I mean, of course it's possible.
0:12I just, I felt like I've lived in like bizarro world about Eli Stowers all year.
0:12And this is getting into a dynasty discussion that like is not, you know, usually the focus of our show, but like
0:12Harold Fannin came out, the previous year was younger, was in my opinion, a way better receiving prospect.
0:12And had clear like blocking limitations, but like, I thought was still a way better blocker than Stowers was on the scale of tight ends with blocking limitations.
0:12And everyone like, like from a market perspective, essentially said, it is impossible that this will work out.
0:12He is a third round rookie pick in dynasty drafts, undrafted in other leagues.
0:12And like, I, in my writeup on Fannin, like I identified all of those issues.
0:12And like, I obviously did not predict that the modal outcome was the rookie season that he would have.
0:12I mean, I don't think anyone predicted that as being the modal outcome, but like, he was my highest exposure recommendation player that year.
0:12Cause I was like, like, if I'm wrong, the ceiling here is tremendous and it's being priced.
0:12Like it's impossible. But then Stowers comes out. And I felt like he was a, like my subjective opinion was he was a worst receiving prospect.
0:12I like, depending on how much you weight athleticism versus production, I could totally understand why people thought he was a superior receiving prospect.
0:12I thought he was way further away as a blocker.
0:12And then most importantly, at least with Cleveland, I can look at that team and say like, these receivers totally stink.
0:12I could see them playing a bunch of two tight end sets with him and Njoku.
0:12I could see them like basically just deciding like, who cares if Fannin has blocking issues?
0:12Cause we need to get his receiving juice on the field.
0:12You know, coming into this year, I was a little lower on Fannin cause of Boston and Concepcion, but I still felt
0:12like his routes weren't that much of an issue because they don't have any other tight ends to play.
0:12Whereas the Stowers, it's like the math gets really tough, like because of his very specific situation, not like his justice classification,
0:12but the Eagle spot is especially difficult because you, there are some specific limitations and how they can get him on the field because they have Smith.
0:12It's never going to come off the field. Lemon, who's a really good player, or at least I think he is.
0:12It hasn't really proven that yet, but I still think he is.
0:12And who is ideally best situated in the slot.
0:12And then Wicks, who I think is quite good.
0:12And so I felt like the situational factors against Stowers were like many.
0:12And yet, like he was going in round one of rookie drafts.
0:12I guess it's a way weaker class, but the valuation on Stowers, like I felt like was just really optimistic and blowing past warning signs.
0:12I'm, I don't think I've like, it's definitely not impossible that he will hit at some point in his career.
0:12I don't even think it's completely impossible that he can hit this year, but like my lean was, it's unlikely.
0:12I mean, you get into it like a redraft conversation when a guy is a literal last round pick.
0:12I mean, I don't think you can make an argument that is like particularly certain against anyone being a last round pick.
0:12I mean, because I think that's a way more, but it's a way more nuanced discussion than we've, than I, than I've
0:12understood from you on Stowers and particularly the dynasty stuff, because I mean, I, I, you're right.
0:12I don't look at dynasty a lot to me.
0:12Fannin was, you know, a 14th round pick 12th round pick, even by the end of, of August for some, you know,
0:12some of these leagues in FFPC, I still took them in every league.
0:12Like I had a ton of fan in last year and the FFPC stuff, maybe it wasn't going to the 12th, but
0:12at least like 14th, like you had to pay up for him, but we'd still like pay up for him a ton.
0:12Um, make sure to get him. Stowers is undrafted in most of them.
0:12And so it's fascinating that when you're talking about it from the dynasty lens, I, I get, I get your perspective more
0:12because Fannin was, I mean, I'm just taking your word for it.
0:13I don't really remember this, but Fannin was going third round in dynasty and, and Stowers was going late first or whatever.
0:13Then yeah, obviously that's like, that doesn't make sense.
0:13I thought Fannin was a way better prospect. And Stowers.
0:13So anyway, I'm not, but I always, I always took your perspective on Stowers to be like a lot more definitive than, than what you just laid out.
0:13So anyway, that's, that's fair. I mean, he's definitely a prospect.
0:13I don't like, like, I'm happy to say that, but like, he's not, he's probably not going to hit.
0:13I would never, I would never say about any rookie prospect that it is literally impossible that they can't produce.
0:13I think that that's like a crazy thing to say, but like from a take perspective, like, yeah, he's definitely not, he
0:13was not one of my guys for sure. I'll, I'll like, and if he, if he hits, like, I'll definitely say like, I was wrong.
0:13Like that's an L, but I wouldn't, I wouldn't ever say that it is completely impossible.
0:13And I understand that you let me draft him at, in points.
0:13And I've already told you that was a mistake and we've cut him.
0:13Like, like we're like, there's more nuance to this conversation than the listeners are really being, you know, fully led into on,
0:13or may not remember like within our, our own decisions as our team and stuff.
0:13But, but, um, and I don't want Stowers to be like, my whole thing is like, I don't want Stowers to be
0:13the poster boy of this whole conversation because he, he is a very unique place, a quarterback translated.
0:13And like, he's like, like to your point, very extreme.
0:13Like some of the reasons that you're pretty out on him is he is very extreme on this access.
0:13Like he like almost literally might not be a tight end.
0:13He's like a project, but he's like super athletic.
0:13And Eagles even seem to seem as a project.
0:13And they basically said in August, we got him out in the practice field and realized he's more of a project than we thought.
0:13He's like not ready to be an NFL football player.
0:13And so like, I think you're probably right that they were stashing him on IR.
0:13Well, and that's part of, that's part of the fan and Stowers price discrepancy and redraft, which is like, obviously dynasty drafts happen in May.
0:13I mean, fan and like his summer was like just arrow up, right?
0:13Even before week one, like he was resting with the starters by the end of the preseason, whereas Stowers was like being placed on IR.
0:13So it's like, obviously these are two trains that were moving, like they had very different Augusts.
0:13And so like the fan, the fan and thing is like way larger than that as well.
0:13From the perspective, like you go back to pre-draft, like fan and had, he led FBS in receptions.
0:13He, he carried bowling green to six point road losses at Penn state and at A&M, a big 10.
0:13And, and people are like, yeah, I played at bowling green week competition.
0:13And I was always like, dude, they played on the road at happy Valley and at whatever Kyle field down there.
0:13And they lost by six in both games. And Fannin was like 40% of the offense in both games.
0:13It wasn't even the thing where like his presence wasn't needed or something like he was the whole reason that the bowling
0:13green almost, it's a different conversation about a level of talent.
0:13When, when you're at bowling green, if you play against big 10 and sec teams with bowling green teammates and almost single-handedly
0:13beat them, like that's a different guy. Like Harold Fannin's prospect profile and production profile was obscene.
0:13It was like, to me as can't misses as it gets.
0:13And people were like, well, he runs duck footed.
0:13And it's like, you guys are looking at the wrong stuff, man.
0:13Like you got to look at the stuff that actually matters.
0:13Stowers situation is very different. It's like, he's got interesting.
0:13Like, I think at one point you're like, depending on how you look at the production athleticism, you might think he's a better receiver.
0:13That raised my eyebrows. I was like, there's anyone who thought Stowers was a more productive receiver than Harold Fannin.
0:13That's why this is right. I mean, this is the thing with tight end, right?
0:13There's, there's the blocking receiving thing, but then there's like a whole other like dynasty based mostly argument of like how to
0:13wait production for tight ends versus athleticism. I mean, there's a school of thought that is like production doesn't matter at tight end.
0:13Only athleticism matters tight end. And like, you know, any reasonable person is more nuanced about this, but like, anyway, I, I
0:13would encourage people to like read anything I've written about tight ends.
0:13You'll see a lot of like good takes. You'll see a lot of bad takes in terms of how things took out.
0:13I, one thing I think that people would find is that I, I, I definitely feel like I, I kind of try
0:13to take in as much of the nuance as possible, but I would say the strongest stand that I have on tight
0:13end is that we have gone too far in, uh, prioritizing athletic testing relative to production in some of the dynasty context
0:13stuff, which is, it's getting way off of topic, but like, no, but that's great.
0:13Yeah. I didn't realize that's that. It makes sense.
0:13I've seen that stuff with the athletic stuff with Stowers.
0:13You were helping me understand that the whole reason I wanted to have this conversation is I think you do really great and nuanced work with tight ends.
0:13And I wanted to get your opinion on, and I told you that pre show.
0:13So just for anyone listening, I'm like, it sounds like I'm like coming at you.
0:13I am rubber stamping that you should read all of Jacob's stuff on tight ends.
0:13I think it's super important. It's super nuanced. I mean, the next time that we get in one of these conversations and
0:13I feel like you're being too limiting, I'm just going to be like, remember how nuanced it is, Jacob?
0:13Cause like, that's it. That's like my point on tight ends is mostly like you do so much in depth work on
0:13it that sometimes you're like, I like, I don't like this particular profile or whatever.
0:13It's not going to work for this reason. And I'm like, and, or like sometimes you'll want me to make a case for a player.
0:13And I'm like, I don't want to make the case.
0:13I just think it's like possible that this could work out this way.
0:13Or like, like there's, it's uncertain and I want to play the uncertainty.
0:13And so that's, that's, there's a lot of interrelated stuff where, like you said, I think we're a lot closer on a
0:13lot of this stuff than, than far apart. But like, yeah, when the, the Stowers fan and thing, when, when you talked
0:13through that and then like, when I came back in, I was like, okay, I guess I see what you're saying about
0:13the dynasty stuff because of where they're, cause you referenced this, where their ADPs were in dynasty and the fan was going later.
0:13Cause when you started that, I was like, Oh great.
0:13Here he goes. He's comparing them to like one of the best tight end prospects of the last like 10 years, like
0:13real fair bar to put on Eli Stowers that he has to be like Harold fan and fan was drafted significantly after Mason Taylor and dynasty rookie drafts.
0:13You made a great case as far as dynasty goes.
0:13Um, I think by the time the, the August stuff came rolled around and I'm a lot more involved in drafting and stuff.
0:13And like everyone I knew was super into fan and I was still on ship chasing.
0:13We did fan or no, I left ship chasing last year, but we did a, we, they did a fan and, um, he was the clip guy.
0:13And I, I went on one of the early shows when we talked about fan and I was like on that clip or whatever.
0:13But I remember being like, yeah, like Pat was super into him.
0:13And Sean was super into him. Like everyone I talked to was like super into fan and you were into him.
0:13Like everybody was into him. Cause it's like, dude, this guy's like unique.
0:13He's a unicorn. He's a one of one, like in a different way than Bowers, but like legitimately a one of one,
0:13as far as like a undersized day to tight end goes.
0:13The, I remember talking to Sean about it and like, he went later than Taylor and a lot of those, uh, round two tight ends.
0:13But the fact that he went high round three was really optimistic draft capital for fan.
0:13And we were all like, this is great for fan and in a vacuum.
0:13It doesn't matter that he was the fifth tight end or whatever.
0:13There's a team that believes he's worth an early third round pick.
0:13That's bullish as heck. Cause he, we know he's super good.
0:13The concern was that nobody would see the vision and they would think that he's too undersized and he's duck footed and
0:13he can't actually play at the NFL level. The fact that he went early day or early, um, round three in day
0:13two was super bullish for fan and relative. And so, yeah, like Taylor would go higher because Taylor went higher in the draft.
0:13And it was like, you guys are way too caught up on draft capital, or at least that was my opinion.
0:13There was other guys that would go higher as well.
0:13And that I can't remember. Like Terrence Ferguson was going around fan and as well.
0:13And obviously it looks in year two, like he might actually be a, you know, a positive play, but Oh, Elijah Arroyo
0:13would go ahead of fan and in some of those rookie drafts.
0:13I remember saying round three and I'd be like, yeah, I'd be trying to trade into like early round three and I
0:13only do a few, but I tried to get them on, on every rookie.
0:13I don't have a lot of dynasty. And then a lot of my dynasty is with other analysts.
0:13So I'm like in leagues with Sean and Pat crane.
0:13And like, those guys are going to draft fan in ahead of work.
0:13Like, you know, the ADP is anyway. And like, I'm not going to get a chance to get them in some leagues.
0:13Um, but yeah, he's very, he was very, uh, highly thought of in certain crowds.
0:13So anyway, you've laid out well, but it's different hours thing.
0:13It's like, maybe it's, it's explaining to some of my, cause like, I felt like I had a lot of like, I,
0:13I had like been making a lot of anti-stowers takes within the context of a dynasty market where you had a very high opportunity cost.
0:13And then like, we get into a redraft context where the opportunity cost is basically zero.
0:13And like, my take was still negative. Like, I'm like, yeah, I don't think it's going to hit this year, but like,
0:13I, it's not like I can argue against an opportunity cost of zero, right?
0:13Like, even if you had said like, let's draft, I don't know, literally name a player in the last round.
0:13Like, like, it's not like I can be like, that's a terrible decision.
0:13Like, it's like whoever it's the last round. So it's like, yeah, sure.
0:13Um, but no, yeah, that's important context on Stowers, but like the broader point about tight ends.
0:13I mean, I'm glad that we, we sort of see it the same.
0:13It's like, there's a lot of nuance and these like classifications of like the move tight ends because they're moved tight ends.
0:13They're not going to be good enough at fantasy.
0:13Now, when I started talking about Juwan's routes trend, I, I was trying to figure out who I was thinking of.
0:13Cause I obviously I look at a lot of routes every week for selling signals and stuff.
0:13I knew there was something there. I think I was conflating two players and they're both like move tight ends.
0:13One is Fannin, but Fannin's numbers are all higher than what I gave.
0:13Cause I said it was like the high fifties, like 59.
0:13It was a little low week one. He went up, but it was the same shape, low in week one.
0:13And then higher in weeks two and three. It's what I described with Juwan, the specific numbers I gave for Juwan and
0:13how I was like getting confused was actually the inverse shape for Pat Fryermuth, who I want to bring up as a
0:13move tight end that fits better up to what you were saying.
0:13So Fryermuth was at 72 in week one, then down at about 59 in weeks two and three.
0:13And I, those are basically the numbers I gave for Juwan.
0:13I think I said, I thought Juwan was like 59 in week one, 72 in weeks two and three for anyone.
0:13Like I was like, who am I getting confused with?
0:13It's not Fryermuth. Cause he went down in two and three, but I think the numbers I gave was me just inverting.
0:13Anyway, Fryermuth is a great example of a player that I was high on.
0:13That's an F tight end that the routes have now fallen down below 60% two weeks in a row.
0:13And the reason I'm bringing him up is your point about like a cap potential and Juwan, because you'd love it if
0:13he was even higher in routes and he hasn't been at the 90% or 80% routes is fair.
0:13Like there is a point at which that matters to me.
0:13Fryermuth is a great example. I still think Fryermuth from a per route basis is a really good player.
0:13I talked about him very favorably. I said he was a really good late round tight end pick because two years ago,
0:13he was a backend tight end one. He was like tight end eight or nine in full season points because he ran enough routes last year.
0:13He didn't run enough routes under Arthur Smith. I thought, I thought with Juwan Johnson gone, he might run more.
0:13He started at 72% in week one. I was like, that's enough for Fryermuth.
0:13I was pumped. And then he's been at 59 or 58% the last two weeks.
0:13These are PFS numbers. I think you gave fancy points numbers earlier, slight difference.
0:13A lot of people love fancy points numbers better.
0:13They classify routes better. I agree with that. The reason I tend to use PFS numbers more is that it is more
0:13inclusive and it's, it ends up being unfair to the player because they're, they're not actually like out running routes, but I
0:13like the inclusiveness in the sense of like, I use routes more as a player participation element.
0:13Like they're out there on the past play. And like, if they got out in a route later, but didn't really have
0:13a chance to earn a target, it's there's still, it's still saying something.
0:13And the fact that a lot of the route, a lot of the targets are first read targets.
0:13Anyway, if they're out there and the plate was designed to go somewhere else, and they were like a block and release,
0:13it's almost like, you know, the, the, the, the negative element on their targets per route and their, their yards per route.
0:13If you count that as a route, it's almost like fair because like, it's part of the play design and play calling
0:13that they weren't dialing something up for this player.
0:13So I, I think there's valid arguments to, to, to use either source.
0:13Anyway, I tend to use PFF. I like the more inclusive number just from an analytical perspective and how I use the routes.
0:13It's not to criticize anyone. And I think fancy points does an incredible job with their data.
0:13Um, but the point of, uh, of saying all that is the numbers I'm giving aren't great.
0:13Even at the more inclusive number, uh, frying with has been sub 60% both of the last two weeks.
0:13That's, that's where it gets concerning. I wanted to circle back to Fryermuth to relate back to some of the great points
0:13you did make when you were talking about Juwan, when we were disagreeing a little bit and just say, yeah, I mean,
0:13I can see that stuff at the, not the, not even at the extremes at certain points.
0:13Like it does become a concern for me. So I was following your point.
0:13I'm less concerned about it with Juwan at a point where it's like the specific usage he's at right now feels like
0:13it's gotta be the floor because he's being so productive and such a big part of the offense for Fryermuth.
0:13It's like, they're not getting the ball. Like, but so that, that also to some degree, it comes back to this broader
0:13point I was making about fantasy in general, where sometimes we just need to look at the guys that are scoring points.
0:13I really do think in 2026, like a lot of the fantasy analysis is just designed to be like, I'm trying to predict using advanced stuff.
0:13What's going to change? Cause you want to be the guy who was right about nailing something.
0:13This is not you, but this is like a, an issue of, of other people that they're trying to like, it's the
0:13same concept of like why people are always picking sleepers and draft season.
0:13It's like, Ooh, this is, this is going to regress and this is going to change.
0:13And this is going to change. And then if you're the guy who's like, well, no, this thing that's happening is going to keep happening.
0:13If it keeps happening, no one's like, Oh, this guy was right.
0:13Cause he said the thing that was going to happen, kept happening.
0:13There's, there's no value in terms of like your brand to that.
0:13So my point is for listeners trying to figure out how to win at fantasy air more towards just following fantasy points,
0:13like the literal points that they score, not the site, the literal, the literal fantasy points that the player has scored.
0:13If you're like, I don't know whether to pick up this guy or that guy there, they're, they're back to back in
0:13my waiver column, but one guy has been scoring more points in fantasy football than the other guy by a lot.
0:13Pick up the guy that's been scoring the points and put them in your lineup nine times out of 10.
0:13It literally does for me, like the whole point, the nuance about Juwan's routes and Fryer Moose routes.
0:13The point for me isn't about their routes. It's about the fact that Juwan is getting targets.
0:13He's catching the ball. He's getting yards and he's scoring touchdowns and Pat Fryer Moose not.
0:13And that's actually really relevant to like, whether they'll get enough routes in the future and whether they're actually like worth stuff in the future.
0:13And there are limitations to how high Juwan ceiling can get, which is part of what you boiled it down to.
0:13And I agree with, but the big pushback I have and why I'm optimistic about Juwan.
0:13And I think people should be optimistic about him as he's been productive and teams, especially well-coached teams feature productive players.
0:13And that's where I would expect things to go for Juwan.
0:13Not like he's going to be a 90% routes player, but I do think it's a really good heuristic that gets overlooked
0:13that I just wanted to circle back on that.
0:13Like people get so caught up in the advanced stats and this and that, and so much of fantasy analysis about trying
0:13to figure out something being different than what it is and how it's going to change.
0:13And I'm going to tell you something that's going to be some great thing instead of just being like, yeah, like what's happening is what it is.
0:13And like, that's the thing. And the reality is what's happening usually is what predicts what's happening.
0:13Like a lot of the time it should be default to what's happening.
0:13A lot of times it should be just like, use your fab on the obvious players.
0:13You know, like that's part of the reason we did the Gordon thing is like Gordon had 80% snaps last week.
0:13I gave a bunch of reasons. I was, I was concerned about that, but I also bid large on him in some places.
0:13Cause it's like, there's a reason people are bidding on him.
0:13He did play 80% of the snaps last week.
0:13He did score a touchdown last week. Like there's a very decent possibility.
0:13He scores a touchdown this week. If they get down there inside the five yard lines, like, so anyway, I think that's, that's really interesting.
0:13We, we probably should wrap up. We should. I wanted to make one final point.
0:14It's my last point for me, at least for the episode.
0:14And it wraps back around to Kenny and Sadiq, who we talked about at the very beginning and was a guy who
0:14like, I mean, everything's relative to price and like in dynasty, I think I ranked him like exactly at ADP, but I
0:14was like a little bit cooler on his prospect profile.
0:14And then in like redraft and in best ball, I had him ranked way ahead of ADP.
0:14Cause I thought that the market was being pretty ridiculously bearish on like a first round hyper athlete, all that stuff.
0:14And like, I guess where you can kind of get there.
0:14It's, it's like this tight end stuff. I think it's like almost the, almost the perfect like bell curve meme.
0:14You know, the one where it's like, there's the one side, the other side, they're both right.
0:14And the middle person is the one like, it's like, I think you can, you almost end up in the same place,
0:14whether you approach it like with literally no nuance or whether you approach it with like as much as possible, which is the guy good.
0:14Because I think that's right. I, and like, you know, now we, I think we know the answer to can you speak is yes.
0:14And obviously like before this game, I think the answer and people could have had varying degrees of, of opinions would have
0:14been, I don't know and waited to the yes or the no side, depending on kind of how you view things.
0:14But like all of the concerns about like role and stuff for tight ends are like concerns really only to the point
0:14that a player isn't so good that the coach prioritizes things around them.
0:14Right. Because if a coach, if a player is good enough, then other players roles will be curtailed to emphasize the player who's good enough.
0:14Now the frustrating thing. Or there's some nuance. There's some nuance.
0:14Whereas teammates may not, they may be in a situation where they don't have good enough teammates, which is sort of the issue.
0:14Right. Juan for me is like, I've been kind of a little critical of Valey, but also saying that like no one else is producing.
0:14I don't think they really have a lot of receiving alternatives versus like Fryermuth.
0:14They're starting to get some stuff going with like Roman Wilson and darn out Washington is awesome.
0:14Like he's like, you want to throw him the ball.
0:14So that's why a lot of this stuff too, is like, it's, it's like, are they good?
0:14And yeah, you're making a good point. It's a guard a good relative to their teammates, all of their situation.
0:14And that's why like on some of these guys, like the flex tight ends or whatever, there are guys that I've been
0:14very in on in one year and very out on in the next year and sometimes correct and sometimes incorrect.
0:14But like, I do, I don't really have like my guys and not my guys.
0:14Like I'm very much like year to year with a lot of these guys.
0:14But like with Sadiq, it's like, yeah, he's a little undersized.
0:14Okay. Well, if he's not that great of a receiver, that would be a really big problem because like, if you're not
0:14that great of a receiver and you're not that great of a blocker, you're not good.
0:14But if you are as good as he was like this week, like, and I expect he'll continue to show and like
0:14that dynamic, then like the other problems like batter a little at the margins, but like, it's really going to be hard
0:14to stop getting this guy on the field. Why would you want to not get this guy on the field as much as possible?
0:14And so maybe those, you know, maybe the route share matters and stuff from like week four, week five, but from a
0:14big picture perspective, if you're that dynamic, if you're that impressive, it's going to be fine.
0:14And like at the very, very, very extreme apex of that scenario is obviously Brock Bowers, who is just like, obviously going
0:14to be fine because he's basically like Puka to Kua.
0:14Like you had said at the very beginning. Yep.
0:14I think that's a really, really good code. We, we, we talked about, we were going to potentially talk about some receivers.
0:14We didn't have a ton to talk about. We never got around to Gadsden.
0:14He was bummer in, he had some routes and then wasn't good receiver.
0:14It was kind of a weird one. Cause it's like, it's kind of a player.
0:14The receivers you had on the show sheet were burden, stock up, BTJ stock down.
0:14That would have probably been a long conversation. You mentioned downs and flowers as other guys we could talk about.
0:14Maybe we'll talk about them in future shows, reasonable names.
0:14I loved your, or I mean like, sorry, the reason I said all those names is I think people could probably figure
0:14out for the most part, like sort of some of the stuff we may have talked about.
0:14So not that we didn't need to have the conversation, but I don't want people to be like, Oh, I wanted to hear all that too.
0:14Like there wasn't that much that we left off.
0:14We did a good job of getting to everything.
0:14The tight end thing was something that I wanted to talk to you about today.
0:14And I think it was a really good conversation.
0:14I loved your bell curve point. It was a really good coda.
0:14Cause I'm kind of on that like lower IQ side of it when it comes to the tight ends where I'm just
0:14like, just like draft the good players and you're like super nuanced about it.
0:14And you're like, yeah, just draft the good players.
0:14And it gets back to this point of like, we both are really in on Juwan Johnson, who is like a good
0:14receiving player, at least relative to cost. You were like, you know, like we're both very into him.
0:14He's, he was third in the league in, in receiving yardage last year.
0:14Most of the time when a guy is like that good at yardage and only has three touchdowns and finishes his tight
0:14end eight, people are going, well, he's going to score more TDs next year.
0:14So he's, he should be going higher than tight end eight.
0:14And instead of him, instead of that, the reason I always say the yardage point is like tight end eight sounds worse,
0:14but he was, like I said, within 10 PPR points of tight end three.
0:14So he was right in this cluster of like, he's a clear top 10 tight end, arguably a top five.
0:14And if you look at like yards, he was a top five tight end.
0:14And, um, he was going like tight end 18 genuinely for like most of draft season.
0:14And it never made any sense. Both you and I are getting there.
0:14The point that I wanted to add to your Coda was, I think this is a, a, a, um, what's the money
0:14ball line about like, uh, gets on base, gets on base.
0:14About the, on, about the on base thing. What an inefficiency in the market.
0:14We've been going for three hours. Inefficiency was the word I was inefficient about finding.
0:14Pretty much. Yeah. She's an inefficiency in the market.
0:14And I would liken it to, and it is, it is using advanced data as a like strict cutoff for such a
0:14weird position, like tight end, which is a onesie position.
0:14Anyway, there's not even that many data points in a given year.
0:14Like one of the things about like tight end research is like so much of it is influenced by the careers of
0:14like Travis Kelsey and George Kittle and like a few of the really good players.
0:14And then like, there's just like, there's so much unique stuff about it that like, it's all just like outliers other than that.
0:14Like you're like aggregate tight end research to me is kind of crazy.
0:14And that's why, yeah, we were talking about the nuance.
0:14The quarterback position had some clear inefficiencies with mobility for years.
0:14And people would just be like, yeah, I can just pick off mobile players at QB every year.
0:14And it's, it's corrected. And I've made the case in recent years at quarterbacks, one of the hardest positions to have like
0:14huge deviations in your ranks from ADP, because for the most part, ADP does a good job of capturing how quarterbacks score in fantasy.
0:14And I think it's fairly predictable at this point, other than the fact that there are a few quarterbacks every year who
0:14spike certain stats that that's kind of unpredictable. It's like past TD rate is a big one.
0:14And it's usually there, they're tied to the, to the teams that massively overperform and the quarterback kind of drives that.
0:14But you're talking about, you know, Matthew Stafford last year and the Rams go really well.
0:14And Drake may last year. And like the Patriots have a really good season.
0:14And like one of the cases I'd make is it like, if people could predict that as well as they think they
0:14can, because when they have a hit, they think they can like, then you should be betting the wind total over on
0:14the quarterback that you're super excited about the late round quarterback.
0:14And those are liquid markets. You can make a lot of money off that bet hundreds and hundreds of dollars on the wind total over for different teams.
0:14Like the Patriots last year, since you were so sure Drake may was going to finish top five, which I took a
0:14lot of Drake may, but I'm just saying like, those are, those are players that spike.
0:14It's not that predictable. The preseason rankings are efficient, not even though the end of season results don't reflect that.
0:14I still believe the preseason rankings at QB are very efficient.
0:14And most of that has been found out. That's the position where I think most has been found out.
0:14Or tight end is the position where I think there is still the most inefficiency in preseason rankings by a lot.
0:14And Juwan Johnson really is the example of that, where it's like, there's no world where this dude should have been going
0:14as late as he was going when he was that good last year.
0:14And the same coach, same quarterback that like really unlocked him down the stretch late in the year, like him and Shuck were, were doing well together.
0:14There's an element of like quarterback and receiver efficiency.
0:14And like he has this, this thing. And anyway, that bell curve meme that you, that you made just made me think
0:14of that as well, where it's like that. The big fat part of the curve is a lot of people making really nuanced arguments.
0:14That's the point of that meme for people who aren't aware of it.
0:14It's like the guy in the middle is making this really long argument.
0:14It's always like a really long thing and it's overly complex and they're wrong because of it.
0:14But that's what I see at tight end. And that's, that was where I was going earlier in the show was like,
0:14the meme was great was the, the masses are constantly making these overly nuanced, like, like, well, not, I think they're missing the correct nuance, but overly detailed.
0:14Like, this is what all the advanced data says and all this stuff.
0:14I do think routes matter. I, they've always been one of the most important points about tight end is who's actually getting out in routes.
0:14I do think like there's other stuff that's really relevant to the roles that you have talked about, but people make that
0:14a, um, disqualifying factor to go back to the word of the day and they miss the forest for the trees.
0:14And then they wind up with these like crazy, like responses that make no sense at this position.
0:14Sadiq being another one, you have a ultra athletic mid first round pick that people refuse to draft a year after fan.
0:14It's like, what are we doing? You know? I mean, like people got really stoked about Ferguson finally, but he was also
0:14one that was kind of weirdly, really low. Then he shot way up.
0:14And then that was the guy I ended up writing about was like, well, then if you can't get Ferguson cheap, then get, you know, you'll get Sadiq.
0:14Like just get Sadiq on every team. It's just like fan in the year prior, like in tight end premium on FFPC.
0:14I have a massive exposure to him, which again, shout out Sean Siegel.
0:14He's the one who was like super into Sadiq, but like we're taking Sadiq on every single team in the 14th round.
0:14Me and you took them on some of our teams.
0:14Like, why wouldn't you just take him in the 14th round and tight end premium?
0:14Even Juwan Johnson was going higher than that. Like Juwan Johnson is like a 10th round pick, eighth round pick in some of those.
0:14So anyway, I think that was that bell curve meme was such a good conclusion to the discussion.
0:14And I just wanted to throw in there that I do think there's this pretty meaningful inefficiency that's captured by that middle
0:14part of that meme where people get so overly precise about some of the advanced stuff with, with tight ends and miss the forest for the trees.
0:14And that's, that's the other side of that meme.
0:14All right. We got to stop the show before it starts with a four.
0:14Okay. We're at three 57 right now. We love you guys.
0:14We're going to talk soon about, um, love it.
0:14Potentially doing one of the patron shows. We're going to do an in season show at some point.
0:14Me and Jacob already talked about a little. He's, he made a great point that we're going to be figuring that out.
0:14Uh, we're going to wait until like the buys hit and then try to figure that out.
0:14Or that's the current plan. So should be coming in the next couple of weeks.
0:14Love you guys. We'll be back next week. See ya.