From the episode
we know that to be the most highly volatile form of wide receiver production... 40 or 50 balls... 40% or sometimes it's the 30% for some guys or it's 25%... in the first two seasons of his career, he was not that good. His yards per target was very low.
STACKED’s take
Pierce's elite yards per target is driven by volatile deep-ball catch rates on a small sample.
Pierce's production is highly volatile and dependent on deep-ball catch rate variance; his yards per target leadership is driven by a small sample of 30+ air yard targets (estimated 40-50 balls from his 84 total targets), and his catch rate on those deep balls fluctuates significantly (ranging from 25% to 50%), which creates year-to-year inconsistency. In his first two seasons, his yards per target was very low despite running the same role, partly due to Anthony Richardson's quarterback play, raising questions about whether his recent elite efficiency is sustainable or scheme-dependent. The source notes this is 'the most highly volatile form of wide receiver production' and questions whether Pierce can expand beyond his deep-threat archetype to do what more well-rounded receivers like Tee Higgins accomplish in intermediate and shallow ranges.
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