From the episode
Christian Watson this week at 8%. He's a little expensive at 6,700... I just think Christian Watson's better... the Buccaneers play a ton of cover three and Watson easily leads the team in targets per outrun over the last two years against that shell... Golden over his career sees a 33% target per outrun reduction against cover three.
STACKED’s take
Watson's cover-three dominance and blitz advantage over Golden make him the superior Buccaneers matchup.
Ryan Heath prefers Christian Watson at 6,700 over Matthew Golden despite Golden's better point-per-dollar value. Watson is a more explosive downfield receiver and has a superior schematic matchup against the Buccaneers. Watson leads the Packers in targets per route run over the last two years against Tampa Bay's cover-three shell (Golden sees a 33% target per route run reduction against cover-three). Against the blitz, Watson and Golden's target shares flip from 19% to 25% depending on blitz presence; Watson benefits from the Buccaneers' blitz-heavy approach. Heath also notes the Packers' passing game is underrated this week due to their inability to run the ball with Jalen Daniels out, forcing dropbacks on dropbacks against a major pass funnel.
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