NFL Week 4 BEST Kept Secrets For Winning at DFS | Outside The Box

Ryan Heath expresses significant concern about Aaron Jones at 23% ownership despite strong role metrics. Jones was at 91% backfield expected fantasy points share last week with seventh-most total expected fantasy points among all running backs. However, Heath worries about Jones' injury history (gets banged up every game), and with Jordan Mason on IR, there's risk that if the Vikings lead by multiple scores against the Dolphins, Jones could be pulled from the game. Additionally, Kevin O'Connell and the offensive coordinator have been talking about getting Damon Claiborne more involved, which could happen in a blowout scenario.

Ryan Heath is interested in Braelon Allen at $5,200 with 10% ownership as a contrarian running back play. Allen is expecting at least a 70% opportunity share and has played a good bit at the goal line, getting every single backfield touch that hasn't gone to Breece Hall this year. The matchup against the Bears defense is not imposing. The current coaching staff really likes Allen, especially in high-value situations, and he's been playing on third downs. Isaiah Davis is the RB2 and there was one game in 2023 when Breece was out where Allen and Davis split 50-50, but that was under different coaching staff.

Ryan Heath notes that Breece Hall is the primary beneficiary if Braelon Allen were not vulturing goal-line carries. Allen has gotten every single backfield touch that hasn't gone to Hall this year, making Hall's red zone role less secure than it might otherwise appear.

Over the last two seasons, Stroud has exceeded 25 DraftKings points just twice: once against the Ravens when they were down nine of 11 defensive starters, and once against the 49ers when they were similarly decimated by injuries with second and third stringers at every level. The Cowboys secondary has been somewhat beat up, but Ryan Heath concludes this doesn't reach the level of defensive injury needed for Stroud to put up a ceiling game. He is not playing Stroud in this matchup.

Case Keenum just put up 24.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. Ryan Heath identifies him as one of his two clear favorites in the sub-$5,300 quarterback range for Week 4, noting that either Keenum or Tyson Bagent would be amazing value in this spot.

CeeDee Lamb benefits from the Dak Prescott-Lamb stack against the Texans, who have been a top-five or top-ten pass funnel by P.Row allowed and have played single-high looks on 50%+ of dropbacks in eight of their last ten games; this schematic matchup is positive for the Cowboys' passing game.

Chase Brown at $6,100 with 24% ownership is described as fine by Ryan Heath. The key concern is the Bengals' unusual offensive pattern: they rank top-10 in EPA per play and have scored on 50% of drives (tied for second), but all scoring has come from long touchdowns outside the 10-yard line or field goals, with very few drives reaching the red zone. This is where Brown's fantasy value typically comes from, and Heath expects this to regress. Brown is averaging 15 fantasy points per game, which Heath finds surprisingly high-owned.

At $7,700 with 31% projected ownership, Christian McCaffrey is described as mega chalk and a strong point-per-dollar play, though slightly underpriced. However, Ryan Heath notes concern about McCaffrey's expected fantasy point percentage of his team dropping significantly this year (from 33.9% last year to 23.3% this year, up to 26.3% last week), which is a reason to potentially get away from him despite elite usage and route share.

Despite ownership concerns, McCaffrey maintains elite usage with 82% snap share and 80% of backfield opportunities last week. His route share is described as awesome and elite usage. However, game script risk exists if the 49ers blow out the Broncos, as McCaffrey may sit in the fourth quarter. The 49ers-Broncos game is projected as fairly close (3-3.5 point spread), which mitigates this concern.

Ryan Heath prefers Christian Watson at 6,700 over Matthew Golden despite Golden's better point-per-dollar value. Watson is a more explosive downfield receiver and has a superior schematic matchup against the Buccaneers. Watson leads the Packers in targets per route run over the last two years against Tampa Bay's cover-three shell (Golden sees a 33% target per route run reduction against cover-three). Against the blitz, Watson and Golden's target shares flip from 19% to 25% depending on blitz presence; Watson benefits from the Buccaneers' blitz-heavy approach. Heath also notes the Packers' passing game is underrated this week due to their inability to run the ball with Jalen Daniels out, forcing dropbacks on dropbacks against a major pass funnel.

Ryan Heath plays DJ Moore at 5,700 as a Josh Allen stacking partner. Moore has a 31% target per route run rate in his two full games this season (unexpected for Heath). He's being used heavily downfield and ranks top-three in air yards when including penalty-negated plays and DPI yards, indicating one of the best downfield roles in the NFL right now.

Dak Prescott projects for only 4% ownership in DFS, making the Dak-CD Pickens double significantly less owned than the Burrow-Higgins double; Ryan Heath calls this 'a no brainer' from an ownership perspective and notes Prescott averages 26.6 DraftKings points per game in single-high heavy matchups over the past couple of seasons, which aligns with the Texans' recent defensive scheme of 50%+ single-high looks in eight of their last ten games.

Ryan Heath identifies this as the most interested he's been in Dak doubles so far this year. Dak is contrarian in a game with a relatively high total; the Cowboys defense is not great, making game stacks with Dak and bringbacks attractive. The Texans defense hasn't clicked this year, creating an amazing spot for Dak doubles.

Ryan Heath is extremely bullish on Derrick Henry at $8,400 with only 10% projected ownership, calling him a total smash and the best play on the slate. This is Henry's first game back playing against his former team (Titans), who are 13.5-point favorites. Henry averages over 25 DraftKings fantasy points per game in games the Ravens have won by multiple scores since joining in 2024. Heath believes the 10% ownership projection is unrealistic and that Henry will be heavily steamed up, but even at 20-25% ownership he remains an awesome play with really strong ceiling. Heath notes Henry interviewed about not being re-signed by Tennessee and emphasizes unlimited value on DFS sites makes him easy to fit into lineups.

Drake May is dealing with a shoulder injury heading into Week 4; the extent to which this injury affects his performance is uncertain, but it is a concern for Patriots' offensive production and could impact Josh Allen's ceiling in DFS if the Patriots cannot keep up with the Bills.

Ryan Heath expresses minimal interest in Drake Maye as a DFS target despite potential contrarian appeal; concerns include shoulder injury, declining performance this season, and unfavorable matchup against Bills defense. Heath notes Maye could be considered in MMB sets if nobody plays him due to injury concerns, but frames it as a difficult stack rather than a genuine target.

With Jadarian Price out, Wilson steps into a bigger role at $4,700 as a starting running back; he showed a 76% snap share and 12 of the team's 16 running back carries in Week 2 when Price didn't play the entire fourth quarter in a positive game script, though the Seahawks have shown a pattern of subbing their main back out at the goal line (George Helani got two-to-one red zone carries over Wilson in that same game); Wilson is decent value in a Seahawks-DST stack in positive game script, though not a smash given the goal-line concerns.

Wilson broke the slate last week and is a strong play again this week; the Bears are the third-biggest deep funnel in the NFL dating back to the start of last season, allowing the third-most receiving yards per game on throws of 20-plus yards downfield while being bottom-seven on underneath throws, which encourages downfield passing; Wilson had two deep targets last week and with AD Mitchell out again this week, Kenyon Sadiq tied him for the team high in deep targets, making a double-stack with Geno Smith and Sadiq very affordable and reasonable.

George Pickens benefits the most from the Texans' single-high heavy defensive scheme; he can be played in the Dak Prescott-Pickens double stack against a Texans defense that has been a top-five or top-ten pass funnel by P.Row allowed.

Pickens is the favorite play among the Bengals receivers as a one-off; the Texans are very single-high heavy over the past 10 weeks, which is massive for Pickens—his target share goes up to 28% versus single-high coverage, his yards per hour run against single-high ranks third-best at the position behind only Puka Nakua and Jackson Smith-Njigba, and his target per hour run nearly doubles compared to against two-high; Pickens has the same number of targets and red zone targets as CD Lamb this year but is separated by 16 points per game in production, suggesting regression is coming; at $6,300 he's a great play in this matchup.

Ryan Heath prefers Isaiah Likely over Malik Neighbors as the primary Jameis Winston stack target. Likely's role has been more consistent, he's cheaper, and he's healthier than Neighbors. Heath notes Likely as the primary stack option with Neighbors as a deeper GPP consideration.

Chase ranks fourth among the Bengals receivers as a one-off play behind Pickens, Higgins, and CD Lamb; while he's amazing in the red zone and downfield, he's much more of a volume/PPR hog than Higgins, making him less attractive in high-total shootout games where touchdowns are more valuable; at 16% ownership he's chalky but still a viable play.

Hurts is averaging over 38 DraftKings points per game this week and has an awesome covered shell matchup; the Chargers play a bunch of cover-four, which is a favorable shell for his passing game.

Ryan Heath identifies James Cook at $7,400 with 10% projected ownership as a mini Derrick Henry and a pretty good contrarian play if Henry gets steamed up. Cook averages 24.7 DraftKings points per game when the Bills have won by at least a touchdown dating back to last year. He's third-best among all running backs in fantasy points per snap (behind only Jameer Gibbs and Derrick Henry). The Bills are 6.5-point favorites against the Patriots. Cook's passing game role did get worse as Ty Johnson came back last week, but in a positive game script he remains efficient and has upside from goal-line carries.

Ryan Heath dismisses Jawan Jennings as a DFS play despite his potential role as the Vikings' WR2 with Justin Jefferson out. Heath notes that Kyle Shanahan-created wide receivers don't perform well outside of Shanahan's system. Using the Data Suite 2.0 player comparison tool, Heath found that Coley Framon's late-career breakout (10th season, part-time to productive) is more comparable to Jennings' trajectory than any other receiver, suggesting Shanahan's scheme-dependent nature. Heath would prefer Coley Framon over Jennings and notes Jennings has been "absolutely nothing so far this season," making it hard to get excited despite the cheap price and favorable Miami matchup.

Ryan Heath plans to use Jalen Waddle at 6K as a bring-back for any Brock Purdy stacks. He references Jake Tribby's case for Waddle on Catching Points and notes a "really fun, like schematic angle for Waddle." Heath also suggests Waddle can be mini-stacked with George Kittle.

Ryan Heath is very enthusiastic about Jeremiah Love as a smash play. Love was the number three overall pick and Heath had him as one of the best running back prospects since 2018, ahead of Jameer Gibbs and behind only Ashton Jenty, Saquon Barkley, and maybe one other top-10 running back. Last week Love got basically everything except the two-minute drill and obvious passing downs (third and long), showing a three-down skill set. He's already being used in the passing game at a strong amount and is top-five in targets per outing alongside Christian McCaffrey and Jameer Gibbs.

Ryan Heath projects Jeremiah Love as having the highest ceiling among comparable running backs (Chase Brown, Aaron Jones, Cam Scadaboo) at similar price tags. Love is more talented than all of them in a raw sense and is positioned to score multiple touchdowns and massively outperform expected fantasy points. Backfields playing against Jamis Winston over the last three seasons average 27 fantasy points per game on DraftKings (top-10 by expected fantasy points per game). Love is game-script proof with strong passing game usage.

Burrow faces Jacksonville's defense in Week 4; the Jaguars' defense was expected to be a pass funnel but has not played that way so far this year, which impacts the level of interest in Burrow as a DFS play and raises questions about whether he will be played.

Burrow averages 24.6 DraftKings fantasy points per game in games with a total above 50 over the past four seasons, giving him the ceiling needed for DFS success; however, his wide receivers Chase and T Higgins both project for top-five ownership at their positions, making it challenging to differentiate in lineups.

Allen is one of the top two quarterbacks by projection this week, but Ryan Heath notes potential pushback: there are so many amazing pay-up options at running back and wide receiver that it may be hard to fit Allen into lineups despite his strong matchup against the Patriots.

Allen is averaging 3.7 more fantasy points per game on QB sneaks than any other quarterback in fantasy points data era history; the Bills have gone for a QB sneak on 80% of their design carries from the one-yard line this year, which ranks ahead of every other team including the Eagles' tush push plays. This gives Allen ceiling upside and the ability to blow up a slate at any time.

At 5900 salary, there are concerns about jamming Allen into DFS lineups given the abundance of amazing pay-up options at running back and wide receiver on the slate; however, his ceiling tier and stackability make him still worth considering despite the price tag and competition from other quarterbacks.

The Bills' pass rate over expectation has been way up this year relative to previous seasons under Sean McDermott; with Joe Brady as head coach, the offense is not run-heavy like it was before. This eliminates the previous consideration that Allen needed the opposing offense to be good to elevate his performance, making him a more reliable ceiling play in DFS.

Ryan Heath identifies Raymond as a strong DFS value at sub-4K pricing. Raymond has 27% of Bears targets within 10 yards this season (fifth-highest among all WRs); he's also fifth in yards per route run for Ben Johnson receivers at 2.2 on more routes than Luther Burden. Previously efficient in a part-time role with the Lions, Raymond is now in a full-time role with route volume approaching Colston Loveland's. Heath calls him "definitely my favorite sub 4K wide receiver punt" and more efficient than Sam Laporta, Jameson Williams, and Roma Dunze under Ben Johnson.

Raymond is a really strong play and the cheapest option in a Bears-Jets stack; the Jets have been an underneath funnel allowing mostly throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and Raymond has 27% of the Bears' targets within 10 yards this season, which is fifth-highest among all wide receivers; he's dominated the short-area work for the Bears and is a great punt at his price point.

Ryan Heath describes Kenneth Walker as what would happen if one of the most explosive players in the NFL was given a top-three workload at running back. The Chiefs have run this experiment every single week this year and it has produced amazing fantasy results. Walker is preferred over Cam Scadaboo and Aaron Jones among higher-owned running backs, though he is the most expensive option.

Kyler Murray is identified as one of the best point-per-dollar options at quarterback in the sub-$5,300 range for Week 4. Ryan Heath groups him with Jacoby Brissett, Jalen Daniels, and the Bears quarterback as viable cheap quarterback options, with Murray looking particularly great to him.

Ryan Heath expresses conditional interest in Kyron Williams in the Rams-Eagles game. The Rams rushing game has been really strong this year, with Kyron and Blake Quorum as the top two running backs in percent of carries going five or more yards in the NFL. Kyron suddenly has amazing advanced rushing stats (rush yards over expectation) despite historically poor advanced metrics. However, Heath is more interested in playing the Rams through the passing game if the Eagles get ahead, as the Rams have been the fourth-fastest offense in the NFL while trailing (26 seconds per play). Heath does not rank Kyron near the top of his list for this slate.

Ryan Heath identifies Burden as a strong DFS play alongside Raymond. Burden has 24% of Bears targets within 10 yards this season and ranks second among Ben Johnson receivers in yards per route run at 2.36. The Jets funnel throws underneath (within 10 yards), creating a favorable matchup. Heath suggests Burden plus Raymond as "a fun double" and notes Burden's efficiency metrics support his DFS appeal.

Burden is really strong and pairs well with Kalief Raymond in a Bears-Jets stack; he's right behind Raymond at 24% of the Bears' targets within 10 yards this season, making him another strong option in the short-area game against the Jets' underneath funnel; the Burden-plus-Raymond double is a fun pairing.

Ryan Heath identifies Malik Washington at 4,400 as a contrarian DFS punt with schematic appeal against the Vikings' 70% blitz rate. With Devon Achain out and Caleb Douglas out, Washington has been getting targets out of the backfield (two targets in final three quarters of Week 3). His targets per route run and yards per route run improve significantly against the blitz and two-high looks, making him a potential PPR cheat code as the low route-depth option. However, Heath acknowledges the Dolphins' offensive struggles limit ceiling; he'd prefer Washington in Kyler Murray stacks as a bring-back option rather than standalone.

Ryan Heath notes Matthew Golden projects as a better point-per-dollar value than Christian Watson at 6,700. However, Heath prefers Watson due to superior schematic matchup. Golden sees a 33% target per route run reduction against cover-three and is on the wrong side of the blitz dynamic (target share drops from 25% to 19% when facing blitz), making him less appealing than Watson against the Buccaneers despite better value.

Wilson easily leads the Cardinals in first-free target share at 35%, which is seventh-highest among all players; by expected fantasy points per dollar, Wilson would be a top-12 value on the slate; he's averaging 19.9 DraftKings fantasy points per game over his last 11 games at only $5,500; he opened the year against two tough matchups (Chargers and Seahawks) but popped off last week against the 49ers; he gets the Giants defense this week which is top-four in points per game allowed to outside wide receivers, making him a total smash worth getting way above his 14% ownership.

Mike Gesicki at $3,300 salary offers a way to differentiate in Burrow stacks; he's been running half the routes for the Bengals so far this year and has exceeded 11 expected fantasy points in two of three games, providing salary relief while maintaining upside in a game where the Bengals lack ancillary wide receivers and will play more 12 personnel.

Collins is playing in the first game over a 45-point over/under that he's appeared in since 2024; Vegas is adjusting upward for Texans games, which is rare. In games over 45-point over/unders dating back to 2024, Collins averages about 18 DraftKings points per game, which is solid value for his salary. Ryan Heath views him as a decent bringback in Dak stacks, though not required given other slate value.

Nico Collins is playing in his first game over a 45-point over-under since 2024, indicating Vegas is adjusting upward for this Texans game, which suggests increased offensive opportunity.

Collins is back this week after injury and should be healthy enough to play in DFS; he's only getting played in game stacks given the abundance of amazing pay-up options at wide receiver, but there's no real health concern—the Texans have to put him back out there in a full-time route share because the offense is completely non-viable without him and they're 0-3; he was limited Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle but had a full practice Friday, suggesting he should be full go.

Washington is an amazing play and the primary leverage off Trevor Lawrence; he can be played in lineups with over 20% ownership without doing a full game stack; the Bengals' DJ Turner (ankle) popped up with a limited practice Friday and was initially projected to shadow Jacoby Myers, but Washington gets moved around the formation making him harder to shadow, so even if Turner is out, Washington remains an excellent play; everything about the matchup and his role supports continued strong production.

Ryan Heath expresses mild interest in Patrick Mahomes as a DFS quarterback option, noting Travis Kelce as a strong stacking partner and Rashee Rice as potentially ascending. However, Heath does not express strong enthusiasm and indicates Mahomes will make his player pool but without particular conviction.

Ryan Heath notes Rashee Rice as maybe ascending a little bit in the context of Chiefs stacking options, suggesting potential upside in Rice's role or production trajectory.

Ryan Heath mentions Saquon Barkley as a potential contrarian play if the Eagles get ahead in the Rams-Eagles game. The Rams have been the fourth-fastest offense in the NFL while trailing (26 seconds per play), suggesting if the Eagles build a lead, the Rams will be forced to pass. This creates a scenario where Barkley could have success against the Rams defense, which is missing Aaron Donald and Miles Garrett (playing a bunch of backups). Heath frames this as fun contrarian galbrains stuff but is uncertain about acting on it.

Neil advocates for TJ Hockenson at 3,300 against the Dolphins as a punt tight end option with Justin Jefferson out. In 2023, Hockenson averaged 9.9 targets per game and 17.31 fantasy points per game in games without Jefferson. While Hockenson is three years older, Neil notes he's not elderly and the role could absolutely be there this week. Ryan Heath acknowledges the play isn't terrible at 3,300 as a tight end punt, though he notes some concern about Hockenson's ownership.

Tee Higgins projects for top-five ownership at wide receiver in DFS, making her part of the highly-owned Burrow stack; Ryan Heath identifies this as a constraint on differentiation.

Ryan Heath identifies Travis Kelce as a strong stacking partner with Patrick Mahomes in DFS, indicating confidence in Kelce's role and production potential as a primary target in the Chiefs offense.

Lawrence is QB1 by expected and actual fantasy points per game over his last 10 games; faces an amazing shootout matchup against the Bengals; Jaguars' play volume has been down due to blowout wins, but this could finally be a full-game shootout where Jacksonville has to try in the second half; priced at only $5,900.

Tyson Bagent is expected to start for the Bears at quarterback (though Ben Johnson said the team will confirm on Sunday). Ryan Heath identifies him as one of his two clear favorites in the sub-$5,300 quarterback range. Bagent impressed in the preseason—Ben Johnson noted he was the team's QB2 entering the year and played amazingly in preseason. Either Bagent or Case Keenum would be amazing value in this spot.

Flowers is an interesting pivot if Derek Henry gets steamed; he's been 34% more efficient by fantasy points per hour run than Jalen Hurts has this year despite running only 25 routes; the obvious concern is game script against the Titans, but Flowers hasn't run more than 14 routes in any game this year and put up over 25 DK on just 11 routes in Week 1, showing JSN-esque usage at a much cheaper price point.