NFL Week 5 BEST Kept Secrets For Winning at DFS | Outside The Box

While workload has been good without Jordan Mason and he projects strong value because of that, he's been underperforming it, which is expected from old Aaron Jones. He's 18th of 30 running backs in rush yards over expectation per attempt. Dank Stats Grinder doesn't think he's going to gash the Saints on the ground. Relative to DeAndre Swift being $300 cheaper and Chase Brown being $400 more, Aaron Jones is an easy fade.

St. Brown benefits from Cardinals' too-high heavy defense; no wide receiver averages a higher target per out-run against too-high looks than St. Brown over the past three seasons. He is the optimal stack piece with Goff against Arizona's defensive scheme.

One of the two highest ownership wide receivers at 7,900 with 25% ownership in the chalky Lions-Cardinals game. Has a strong schematic matchup. Dank Stats Grinder is playing him if playing this game.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is recommended as a stack partner with Kendrick Bourne in Detroit lineups; the strategy involves playing Bourne as a leverage piece on Arizona while paying up for expensive Detroit players like St. Brown.

Dank Stats Grinder identifies Antonio Williams at 3,800 salary as a strong value play, noting he was up at 73% route share last week and was only one target behind Stefan Diggs despite being significantly cheaper. Williams had an 87-yard touchdown called back and has been very efficient in limited work this year, tracking for a full-time route share. Combined with Jaden Daniels at 6K, the two can be stacked for under 10K salary combined, opening up significant salary flexibility on the slate.

Antonio Williams is positioned as the top or near-top target for the Commanders if Terry McLaurin is out; the matchup against the Giants is characterized as nice, making Williams an easier stack piece with Jane Daniels.

Dank Stats Grinder identifies Antonio Williams as one of the better punts at 4% projected ownership and a few hundred dollars cheaper than Trey Harris; explicitly states Williams is clearly a better play than Harris in the same salary range.

Among sub-$5,500 running backs, Braylon is the favorite. Workload feels assured regardless of game script because he's played in all situations this year with 94% snap share last week. Without Reese Hall, he has 100% backfield XFP share; seen every single non-Breeze running back touch for the Jets this year, mixed in at goal line, playing on third downs. Route share was 67% last week. Browns are seventh softest by EPA per rush allowed, top five by rushing success rate allowed, second highest explosive run rate allowed. Dank Stats Grinder is assured of the workload and notes Jets need to run more than 32 plays (last week's total) to maximize his value; against a much worse Browns defense, this is almost assured.

Bowers is the slate's wide receiver three by DraftKings points per game and expected fantasy points per game, priced $700 cheaper than the salary-based WR3. The Patriots are missing Christian Gonzalez (best corner in league by fantasy points per target allowed) and likely another outside corner. Bowers benefits from the Patriots' struggles defending play action and middle of the field. He pairs well with Kirk Cousins as a contrarian stack.

Brock Purdy has been demolished by the Seahawks in his last two matchups against Mike McDonald; while Purdy averages 30 DFS points per game in his last 14 games not against Seattle, he scores single digits against the Seahawks, making this Week 5 matchup unfavorable despite his general consistency; Dank Stats Grinder does not plan to play Purdy this week.

Stroud is top-two in catchable air yards per game this year and has been playing much better. However, the Texans' worse defense has forced him to drop back 35+ times in three of four games. Nico Collins averages 18 DraftKings points per game in games where Stroud drops back 35+ times since 2024, a decent but not elite angle.

Caleb Douglas is mentioned in comparison to Kevin Coleman Jr., with Coleman noted as more productive than Douglas on an age-adjusted basis from college; this is part of the context for why Coleman was considered a sleeper in the rookie wide receiver class.

Williams is listed as questionable, which may affect Bears-Packers stack construction. If he is unavailable, Tyson Bagent becomes the primary QB option for that game stack.

Carnell Tate is priced at $5,300 with only 7% ownership and tracking for single-digit ownership; Dank Stats Grinder makes a strong contrarian case: Tate ranks third among rookie wide receivers in first-read target share through four games (behind only Drake London and Puka Nakua), leads all wide receivers in air yard share, and faces the Texans defense allowing the second-most receiving yards per game on deep balls and second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. Tate is averaging 18.7 DK points over his last two games, has top-five fast funnel potential, and was one of the most efficient per-target receivers in his draft class despite competing with Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State. The speaker is willing to play Tate at this price and ownership until the market catches up, viewing him as a potential ascending superstar talent.

Over 20% target share last week after Jamar Chase left the game; averages 22 DraftKings points per game in four games T Higgins has missed since taking over the backfield; averages over 23 DraftKings points per game in games Bengals have won by a touchdown or more. Dank Stats Grinder identifies him as the way to go on the Bengals.

Chris Bell is Dank Stats Grinder's preferred play over both Malik Willis and Kevin Coleman Jr. in the Dolphins game; the speaker is committed to the Chris Bell train and views him as the better value target.

Dank Stats Grinder expresses strong preference for Chris Bell over Kevin Coleman in DFS, positioning Bell as the preferred play in this game matchup.

Chris Olave at $7,700 is a top-three value by expected fantasy points per dollar among all flex-eligible players on the slate; ranks as wide receiver three with Tyler Shough at QB over his last 12 games by DraftKings fantasy points by usage, making him an efficient DFS play despite recent salary increase.

Saints showed willingness to keep Chris Olave on the field late in blowout losses (played after two-minute warning in a game down multiple scores), indicating high-volume fantasy upside even in negative game scripts; this aggressive approach to maintaining offensive plays supports fantasy value.

Had his highest share of expected fantasy points for the 49ers last week at close to 30%, still lower than last year but rising. This was in a tighter game, so it's expected to continue rising in another tight game against the Seahawks. However, Dank Stats Grinder would rather pay up for Jackson Smith-Njigba instead, finding him $600 cheaper and preferring that route. McCaffrey doesn't play nearly as much if the game isn't competitive or if the 49ers aren't trailing.

Watson is priced appropriately for his efficiency level among the three Packers pass catchers (Love, Kraft, Watson). He is a middle option between Kraft (best matchup) and Golden Tate (better value).

Will have his weeks in the Bears offense according to Ben Johnson; usage is unpredictable and will alternate with other receivers like Kalief Raymond week-to-week.

Assuming Kyle Monunga is out, Dank Stats Grinder identifies Swift as the best running back play on the slate. Bears have the most valuable backfield in the NFL by backfield expected fantasy points per game, averaging over 30 per game. Packers are one of the top run funnels by pass rate over expectation allowed. If Swift sees 70-80% of this most valuable backfield rather than the 55% he's averaged over the last year-plus, it's the best play on the slate. Ben Johnson offense has consistently been top three in yards per carry and EPA per run.

Dank Stats Grinder prefers Swift over Bears receivers in Week 5; the Packers are one of the biggest run funnels, and Swift is positioned to benefit from game script favoring the ground game.

Speaker is much more into playing Swift against the Packers, who are one of the biggest run funnels; this is likely how the game goes most of the time.

Had a 75% backfield XFP share last week (would have been eighth most on the week) and is priced well below that at $5,300. 49ers are top six schedule adjusted matchup for opposing running backs and the biggest run funnel in the NFL by pass rate over expectation. If Seahawks control the game, Wilson could be a very strong play. However, in negative game scripts (like against Commanders in week three), George Helani played on passing downs and ran more routes. Dank Stats Grinder likes the Wilson DST stack but notes he's clearly worse than Braylon Allen.

Jamar Chase practiced in full on Friday, eliminating the scenario where his absence would create value plays at other Bengals receivers like Dante Myers or Mike Gesicki; his health status makes paying up for Joe Burrow harder to justify in DFS.

Jameis Winston presents a strong schematic matchup against the Commanders in Week 5; the Commanders run a ton of cover-4 defense, and Winston has thrown deep against cover-4 the second-most in the NFL, creating a favorable passing setup; Dank Stats Grinder regrets not sticking with Winston last week and views this as another strong opportunity.

Williams' target per out-run falls to just 14 percent against too-high looks, making him a poor fit in the Goff stack despite being cheaper and less owned than St. Brown. Dank Stats Grinder prefers St. Brown as the optimal stack piece.

Jameson Williams is mentioned in the context of Detroit stack construction with Kendrick Bourne as a leverage play, though the speaker's exact phrasing is unclear in the transcript ('golf with Amin Ra gives').

Goff has shined in high total games; in five away games with totals above 52 points over the past three seasons, he averages 25 DraftKings fantasy points per game. This week's Arizona-Detroit game qualifies as an elite environment with both teams top-seven in plays per game and massive pass funnels by pass rate over expectation allowed.

Dank Stats Grinder highlights Jaden Daniels at 6K salary with only 3% projected ownership on a slate without Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or other hypermobile QBs. In games where Daniels hasn't left early over his career (75%+ snap share), he averages 22.7 DraftKings fantasy points per game—ranking behind only Josh Allen since entering the league—plus 51 rushing yards per game, leading all QBs this year. Injury expert Jeff Muller notes re-injury risk exists only if Daniels braces his arm against the ground in the same way again; throwing, running, and getting hit carry no significant re-injury risk, and Daniels is not expected to be physically limited. At 6K with cheap pass catchers (Antonio Williams 3,800, Terry McLaurin 5,300), Daniels opens up significant salary flexibility and is a big point of emphasis for DFS.

Jaden Daniels is identified as the preferred side of the Commanders-Saints matchup in Week 5; while the game could turn into a 'slop fest,' Daniels' side of the game is viewed as the better DFS play compared to Jameis Winston's side.

Assuming Rico Dattles is out again this week, Jalen Warren has had a bell cow role for the Steelers and that's expected to continue in a nice matchup with the Colts. He's seen 90%+ snap shares without Rico Dattles and has played awesome. Dank Stats Grinder loves Jalen Warren, calling him one of his favorite running backs in the league; he's top five in missed tackles forced per touch and yards after contact per attempt every single season. The Colts tend to funnel everything underneath within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (allowing second most receiving yards per game in that area). Warren has a 21% target share within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, the highest on the Steelers, so PPR value is in play.

Scott Barrett made an impassioned argument for him as awesome leverage on every other piece in that game, and the source was very excited to play him thinking he'd be in an every-down bell cow workload last week. However, he got hurt during the game, which he brushed off and the team lied about it. LaFleur said he actually injured his other ankle (not the one injured in preseason). The source played a ton of Jeremiah Love last week and didn't win money because of this. Jeff Mueller (injury Dank Stats Grinder) isn't bullish on Love in the near term due to the need to rehab that ankle. However, if Lions-Cardinals doesn't go off and Love gets positive game script, he could break off long touchdowns on 14-15 touches for a massive tournament-winning score.

Joe Burrow presented as an interesting DFS option against the Dolphins, particularly if T. Higgins or Jamar Chase misses, which would create value plays at receiver and tight end; however, with both receivers practicing in full on Friday, Burrow becomes harder to justify at full salary; matchup is theoretically nice but Dolphins defense shouldn't provide much pushback.

Love's thesis remains consistent: the Packers cannot run the ball and will be forced to drop back frequently. However, with Tucker Kraft now fully up to speed and leading the team in first-read target share last week while running more routes than Christian Watson, there are now three pass catchers to choose from, making stack construction difficult. Love could have a high-volume game, but deciding which two receivers to pair with him is challenging.

Jawan Johnson at $4,500 is shockingly the top expected fantasy points per dollar value on the entire slate; averaging nearly 16 expected fantasy points per game with virtually no ownership, making him a strong contrarian DFS stack piece with Shough and Olave.

Was in play last week but the Bears offense is unpredictable week-to-week; Ben Johnson indicated that Colston Loveland will have his weeks and Kalief Raymond is doing a great job, but it will continue to be unpredictable which receiver gets the volume.

Lions have allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to slot receivers of any team. Kendrick Bourne runs 68% of his routes from the slot and has run at least two-thirds of routes in every game this year. Since the start of last season when he's played at least that much, he averages just over 9 DraftKings points per game and has gone over 15 in three of those 11 games, including one this year. Even if he scores 15 DraftKings points, he's taking it away from other receivers in this game. He has the best possible matchup in the slot by XFP per game and actually has a better role than Marvin Harrison Jr. right now. Dank Stats Grinder likes him as a bring-back, in a Brissette stack, or as a one-off leverage play. At $3,400, he's a way to play the game in a smart way different from how others are playing it and allows you to get up to the expensive guys.

Dank Stats Grinder targets Kendrick Bourne as a contrarian leverage play on Arizona; prefers him over Tesla as the cheap under-owned receiver with three-to-four-times upside potential. Bourne is positioned as Arizona's wide receiver two with predictable playing time—running fewer routes than Michael Wilson but involved as the primary slot option every game. Suggests playing him in a Detroit stack with Amon-Ra St. Brown to pay up for expensive pieces while gaining leverage on other Arizona receivers like Trey McBride and Michael Wilson.

Kevin Coleman Jr. ran a lot of routes and was considered briefly as a potential play, but Dank Stats Grinder decided against pursuing him; he prefers Chris Bell instead. Coleman is noted as a part-time player on the Dolphins with limited upside despite being a college sleeper with productive age-adjusted stats; he's only viable at 0% ownership in large-field contests.

Dank Stats Grinder gives blessing to play Kevin Coleman in DFS, though expresses preference for Chris Bell in the same game context; Coleman presented as a viable contrarian option.

Cousins is a contrarian pivot to Jacoby Brissett, scoring 21.5 DraftKings fantasy points per game this year (fourth-best among slate-eligible QBs) while costing $100 less. The Raiders have overperformed Vegas's expectations all season, are top-six in speed by seconds per play when trailing, and are efficient in 12 personnel since Brock Bowers returned. Cousins-Bowers stack is $200 cheaper than Brissett-McBride with similar construction and minimal ownership.

Questionable status; speaker is a noted Lad McConkey bull and hopes he can come back healthy and start playing at some point.

Luther Burden III is priced at $4,900 with 14% ownership; Dank Stats Grinder notes he is efficient and exciting, and still believes in his talent level from before the season, but passing volume and usage have been highly inconsistent week-to-week, making him a volatile play.

At 14% ownership; mentioned in context of Bears receiver unpredictability.

Malik Willis is priced at $4,600 in a game where the Dolphins should be forced to throw; Dank Stats Grinder is tempted by the low price but remains uncertain about playing him, noting he's been a lost cause so far this season.

Malik Willis mentioned as a quarterback option for DFS consideration, though not elaborated as a primary recommendation in the context of this game.

Wilson is one of only two Cardinals receivers combining for 70 percent of first reads and has the better schematic matchup of the two Cardinals pass catchers against Detroit's defense.

One of the two highest ownership wide receivers at 6,200 with 22% ownership in the chalky Lions-Cardinals game. Has a strong schematic matchup. Dank Stats Grinder is playing him if playing this game.

Michael Wilson is noted as an expensive Arizona receiver whose target share could be impacted by contrarian plays like Kendrick Bourne in DFS leverage scenarios. Bourne runs fewer routes than Wilson but has been more consistently involved as the primary slot option.

Mike Gesicki highlighted as a DFS value play if Tee Higgins misses; has excellent splits without Higgins, averaging six targets per game over the past three years when Higgins is out, making him an attractive salary relief option.

Leads the Broncos in target share right now and is just behind Pat Bryant in receiving yards per game for the team lead. Pat Bryant just went on IR. The stat that RJ Harvey is leading the Broncos in usage is described as 'the most damning stat, like the worst symptom of a deeply sick Broncos offense ever,' but it is a strong schematic matchup against the Chargers. Harvey sees his targets per hour run come way up against two-high looks. Shurmur just loves checking it down against what the Chargers show. Could be another big RJ Harvey game. Listed as an MME play; not in the 20-lineup player pool but strong in large field tournaments.

Scott Barrett's stand on Roman Wilson: despite being part-time the last two weeks, Wilson is only 60 air yards behind DK Metcalf this season and has seen only one fewer first-read target than Metcalf over the last two weeks; with Michael Pittman out, Wilson's 85% route share in week two and efficient production in the Mike McCarthy slot role historically finish as WR1; at $7,700 with single-digit ownership, Wilson projects way higher than his salary suggests.

Roman Wilson has a great matchup against the Colts defense, which has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers on the season; Wilson plays 60% of his snaps from the slot, directly exploiting this weakness.

If playing Bears receivers this week, Odunze would be the bet; however, speaker is much more into playing DeAndre Swift and the Packers matchup, which is one of the biggest run funnels.

LaPorta is a top-five XFP per dollar value on the slate, even including running backs and wide receivers. He leads the team in yards per out-run against cover six, which the Cardinals play significantly. With a 75+ percent route share, he averages nearly 16 DraftKings points per game and has exceeded 20 DK points in 33 percent of games since last year when above that route share threshold; he has done so every game this year.

Tee Higgins practiced in full on Friday, eliminating the scenario where his absence would create value plays at other Bengals receivers like Dante Myers or Mike Gesicki; his health status makes paying up for Joe Burrow harder to justify in DFS.

Dank Stats Grinder notes Terry McLaurin is entering the weekend as a game-time decision but is priced at only 5,300 salary. Even with Stefan Diggs potentially out and Antonio Williams elevated to 73% route share, McLaurin's salary remains cheap enough to stack with Jaden Daniels and Antonio Williams for under 10K combined.

At 4,100 salary with teammates Pats and Tan out, Harris is the only receiver left on the Chargers offense, but the speaker is opposed to the Chargers overall; last week they leaned heavily into throwing to running backs after not doing so through the first three games, and the Broncos target teams closer to the line of scrimmage within 10 yards, where Rondae Gadsden led the team in targets with a lower average depth of target than Harris; Chris Wecht projects Harris as a top point-per-dollar value, but the speaker is not vibing with the play.

Patriots are playing against the Raiders who have allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate to running backs on the season. Trevion Henderson has that explosive play upside. Rondell Stevenson sounds like he's going to play but Vrabel was non-committal, saying they haven't ruled him out and he sounded pretty questionable. Ramondra said he's ready to go but may be limited, in which case Henderson would take on a bigger workload. At low ownership at $5,000 in a matchup that should suit a running back with explosive play abilities, Henderson is capable of the one or two explosive plays needed to make his day. Listed as an MME (multiple-lineup entry) play; borderline on playing him in a 20-lineup set.

McBride is one of only two Cardinals receivers combining for 70 percent of first reads. The Lions allow the fourth-highest target share to opposing tight ends despite facing non-elite tight end names like Jawan Johnson, Dalton Kincaid, and Darren Waller. McBride is expected to smash in this matchup.

Trey McBride is mentioned as one of the expensive Arizona receivers whose target share could be impacted if a contrarian play like Kendrick Bourne pops off for multiple touchdowns in DFS leverage scenarios.

Kraft is now fully up to speed and led the Packers in first-read target share last week, running more routes than Christian Watson. He has the best matchup of the three Packers pass catchers against the Bears.

Tyler Shough is a contrarian DFS value despite facing the Vikings' worst-in-NFL pressure rate and high two-high coverage; his deep throw rate and efficiency decline against two-high, but he ranks top three or top four in pace, drop backs per game, and pass rate, generating top-four fantasy points per game; with low projected ownership and salary at $6,100, Shough offers value if the Saints fall behind and enter garbage time, similar to Blake Bortles' late-game volume; Saints could compete if game script allows for volume.

Bagent is priced at $4,700 and represents a top-three point-per-dollar value at QB. His receivers are also very cheap. The Bears-Packers game has the second-highest total on the slate, making it a viable stack alternative to Arizona-Detroit.

Tyson Vagent is positioned as a significantly better play than Malik Willis at only $100 more salary; this is offered as the preferred alternative in the same game context.