NFL DFS Deep Dive

Trey McBride is priced at $6,700 with 9% projected ownership in week 3 DFS; the source notes that McBride is a recurring discussion point each week, suggesting consistent relevance as a play option.

Xavier Worthy scares the source because much of his projection is built around designed work and end-zone targets, which can be taken away quickly—as happened to Rashi Rice. The source's concern is that Worthy's role is fragile and dependent on scheme elements that may not sustain.

Dalton Schultz carries 16% projected ownership in week 3 DFS after seeing high target volume in week 2; positioned as chalk tight end alongside Mark Andrews and Travis Kelsey.

Mark Andrews is listed at 18% projected ownership among chalk tight ends in week 3 DFS; positioned as part of the high-ownership tier alongside Dalton Schultz (16%) and Travis Kelsey (15%).

Dalton Kincaid is explicitly called out as 'one of my favorite plays on the slate' by the source; positioned as a strong DFS play, particularly given that wide receivers are question marks in the Bills offense.

The source explicitly states 'you can probably miss me with' Keyon Coleman, indicating disinterest regardless of context; this is a fade recommendation for DFS purposes.

Despite only running 12 routes in week 2, DJ Moore is positioned as a potentially insanely valuable downfield role in the Bills offense; the source emphasizes interest if he's playing, suggesting undervalued upside given his route volume and offensive context.

Despite being a long-time skeptic due to poor per-route data, DJ Moore has emerged as a potentially insanely valuable downfield role in the Bills offense when accounting for plays called back from penalties. When including no-plays in the data suite, Moore sits at 26% target per route rate—matching Chris Olave and Christian Watson this year and better than any point in his career, even with the Panthers. He ranks top 12 in air yards per game despite running only 12 routes in week 2, indicating elite downfield volume and opportunity. If he plays (he was questionable with non-contact jersey status), he represents strong DFS value.

At $5k, Tucker is a game-stack value play as a bring-back option to Ashton Jenty in Raiders stacks. He's the only Raiders wide receiver with a full-time route share and stays on field in 12 personnel, which the Raiders are expected to deploy more with Brock Bowers back. Tucker has been getting downfield usage consistent with Clint Kubiak's deep play-action scheme that made JSN special last year; he leads the team in air yard share and has shown big-play upside. Not projected to score well for the price in cash games, but offers schematic upside in tournament stacks.

Trevor Lawrence prefers Chris Olave over Justin Jefferson at their respective DFS salaries and ownership levels, viewing Olave as the better play.

Trevor Lawrence prefers Chris Olave over Amon-Ra St. Brown at their respective DFS salaries and ownership levels, viewing Olave as the better play.

Trevor Lawrence considers Chris Olave at $7,200 DFS salary an insanely good play and severely underpriced; since Rashid Shaheed's trade last year, Olave has been top-three in every wide receiver metric including expected fantasy points per game and Draft Kings fantasy points per game, with improved yards-per-route-run efficiency this year; Lawrence prefers Olave over Amon-Ra St. Brown, JSN, and Justin Jefferson at their respective salaries and ownership levels.

Trevor Lawrence prefers JSN more in closer games and played him last week with success, but questions whether to pay $8,600 for him in DFS; considers Jameer Gibbs a better value at that salary tier, though acknowledges JSN is a player you can't rule out.

The speaker questions whether JSN (Jalen Hurts' teammate) will continue scoring two to three touchdowns every single game and whether he will continue averaging eight yards per route run, suggesting skepticism about the sustainability of recent scoring rates.

Despite the Bengals-Steelers matchup not appearing to be a great spot on its face, the schematic considerations and game environment make Chase one of the speaker's favorite wide receiver plays on the slate; he is positioned to 'nuke' even outside of the specific cover three considerations, and the speaker expresses conviction in the play relative to ownership.

Against cover three defenses, Chase has averaged 26 DraftKings points per game over the last three years (10 games where Bengals faced over a third cover three), which is five more points per game than any other wide receiver in that span; his targets per route run rate jumps to 39% against cover three, and he has multiple 40-point games in these spots. The Steelers have played cover three on at least a third of their dropbacks in 15 of their last 19 games, creating an ideal schematic matchup. Additionally, both Bengals and Steelers offenses are top five in pass rate over expectation, suggesting the game environment could be high-scoring if the Steelers' offense clicks.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) is priced highest among wide receivers at the top of the DFS salary board with 12% projected ownership.

Jamar Chase faces Steelers defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, who has been one of the most cover three heavy DCs in the NFL, playing it on at least a third of his dropbacks in 15 of his last 19 games. Over ten games in the last three years where the Bengals have faced over a third cover three, Chase averages 26 DraftKings points per game with multiple 40-point performances. At 8,100 salary with single-digit ownership, this is described as an awesome spot for Chase in DFS.

Coker is at $5,500 against the Browns, who play a man-heavy, cover-one-heavy defense that the new defensive coordinator has committed to continuing. This is a major schematic spot: Coker averages 2.7 yards per route against cover-one since entering the league, ranking top-12 among all wide receivers (including his part-time rookie season). He ranks top-6 in XFP per team play and has averaged over 20 DraftKings fantasy points per game over his last three games (including playoffs). At $500 cheaper than Ted Arroyd McMillan with more end-zone work, Coker is the preferred play in this elite schematic matchup.

Bateman is at 12% ownership and $4,700 with his role dependent on Zay Flowers' status. He had a strong game last week when Lamar Jackson indicated he would get more involved, but he has not consistently produced when Flowers is out. Trevor Lawrence is hesitant to play into his 12% ownership and notes the price has risen, making it feel less attractive this week. The role was present last week, but Trevor Lawrence lacks strong conviction on him.

Pickens is at 10% target share against two-high looks versus Lamb's 31%, making the schematic matchup less favorable for him. However, he has a history of outperforming schematic expectations; he went for seven receptions, 100+ yards, and a touchdown against the Chargers last year despite similar two-high looks. While Pickens is not the preferred stack option, he remains a reasonable play in stacks given the lack of better alternatives (Javante Williams and Jake Ferguson have higher targets per route against two-high but don't generate tournament wins). Trevor Lawrence is begrudgingly playing him in stacks.

Lamb is at 14% ownership, which feels light given his elite role. He leads all position players in XFP per team play—a better per-play role than Jameer Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor. The schematic matchup is favorable: the Ravens play a ton of two-high looks, and Lamb has a 31% target share against two-high versus George Pickens' 10%. Historically, Lamb has been the best wide receiver on a per-route basis into two-high looks, even over last season's data. At his current ownership and price, he represents strong value.

Laporta is the preferred Lions tight end stack option over Jamison Williams due to his consistent role advantage. Historically, Laporta has out-targeted Williams and maintained a better role in every game and split they've both played. This pattern has continued into the current season, making him the second-best Lions stacking partner after Amon-Ra St. Brown.

St. Brown remains an elite play with no changes to his role; he continues to lead the NFL in red zone targets and end zone targets, making him a top stacking partner for the Lions. Trevor Lawrence prefers him over Jamison Williams as the second-best Lions stack option (after Jameer Gibbs) due to his consistent elite role and touchdown upside.

Williams is underperforming his expected fantasy points by the most of any wide receiver (negative 8.8 fantasy points over expectation) due to a 25% drop rate this year. While the Lions face the Jets, who allow the lowest receiving yards per game on deep balls (27.5 yards per game, 20+ yards downfield) going back to the start of last season, Williams' execution issues and role disadvantage versus Sam Laporta make him a fade. Historically, Laporta has out-targeted Williams and maintained a better role in every game and split they've both played.

Washington is at 19% ownership and $6,000, but Trevor Lawrence maintains conviction despite rising ownership because the role remains elite. He leads the team in targets over his last six games, ranks top-12 among all players in XFP per team play (a list dominated by CeeDee Lamb, JSN, and bell-cow running backs), and was one yard away from 22+ DraftKings points last week. The Liam Cohen slot cheat code is too strong to fade, and at $7,600-$8,000 he should be priced higher. While New England is not an ideal matchup overall, Washington should avoid Christian Gonzalez and maintain his elite role.

Montgomery is at 2% ownership and $6,000 against the Colts, who have a weak defense. However, the Texans employ an unusual drive-based rotation with Woody Marks rather than traditional situational splits: Montgomery plays 60-67% of drives but receives no goal-line work if those drives stall, while Marks gets all high-value touches on his drives. This makes Montgomery highly volatile week-to-week; he scored three touchdowns in week one when his drives reached the end zone, but was ineffective in week two when Marks' drives were the productive ones. He remains playable in large field DFS if you accept the unpredictability, but this backfield structure makes him unreliable for best ball.

Johnson is a high-efficiency running back (top-two in efficiency metrics alongside Ken Walker) who Andy Reid has explicitly stated will get more snaps this week. At a low salary with the Chiefs as double-digit favorites over Miami, Johnson represents a classic game-script play for large field DFS tournaments. If the Chiefs build a lead, Johnson should see increased volume, and there is no cheaper running back option on the slate that Trevor Lawrence is excited to play. This is positioned as a contrarian, high-upside play in 150-lineup GPPs.

Judkins has increased route participation to career highs over his last four games, with target share rising to 14.5% (top-six among all running backs last year) from just 6% previously, driven by Dylan Sampson's injury absence. At 7% ownership and $5,500 salary, he offers salary relief on a slate where the Panthers have been a poor rushing defense (DeAndre Swift and Kyle Monongai ran all over them in week one). The Browns-Panthers matchup is close enough to avoid negative game script, making Judkins playable in large field tournaments despite the Browns' offensive struggles.

Concerns about usage in trailing game scripts. Braylon Allen playing significant third-down snaps and getting goal-line vultures. Jets almost exclusively in neutral or leading game scripts, having trailed on only 5% of snaps. Hall top 12 in expected fantasy points per game among running backs, but easier to achieve when not in trailing scripts. Seen basically same workload as Bucky Irving but getting vultured more by Braylon Allen at goal line. Not as impressive as Irving when adjusting for team plays and game script. Fine as piece of Geno Smith double stack but not interested outside that context.

Will pop eventually but concerns about overall Buccaneers offense against Ryan Flores' defense. Baker Mayfield's splits against pressure and blitz are rough; Mayfield hasn't played well last couple weeks. Buccaneers bottom five in EPA per drop back and top five in EPA per rush, creating angle where they lean into run game. Offensive line playing well and Bucky playing well with great workload. Less appealing than Aaron Jones or Chuba Hubbard but could be Bucky week.

Had 80% snap share despite knee injury during game and returning from it. Usage very encouraging in terms of backfield expected fantasy points share; one of highest marks of week. Priced up to 5,900 from 5,100 last week. Lack of passing game involvement limited box score last week in gross, ugly game with no plays run from inside 10-yard line. Now showing 10% ownership, making him worthy pivot off Jalen Warren. Buccaneers are running back target funnel with top three in targets receiving yards per game allowed to running backs. Best way to take advantage of Vikings game even if gross.

With Jonathan Brooks out, gets full workload. Panthers historically run quite a bit despite new offensive coordinator Brad Idzik's aggressive passing approach. Panthers throwing much more than in past, but Hubbard still positioned to get bulk of carries. Strong play at 6,100 against Cleveland as alternative pay-down option at running back position.

Favorite between Cook and Derek Henry. Has seen much better role in passing game this year; route share and target share both increased. Too-heavy schematic matchup against Chargers increases targets per out run for running backs. Ty Johnson likely back this week and was taking away routes previously, creating some uncertainty, but Bills wanted Cook more involved in passing game going into season. Averages over 25 DraftKings points per game in games Bills win by touchdown or more since last year. Has intrigue even in competitive shootout-type game.

Scored short-yardage touchdown at end of third quarter but played only one snap in fourth quarter last week despite amazing usage through three quarters. Still posted over 20 expected fantasy points through three quarters and can absolutely nuke even if game isn't close. Fair to dock him slightly relative to other amazing plays given blowout risk, but remains strong option within 49ers stack or with Trey McBride as bring-back if game stays closer.

Had 100% snap share in fourth quarter after Rico Dowdle left last week; Dowdle confirmed out for this game. Projects as top point-per-dollar value at running back. Rushing matchup not great, but through air offers strong appeal. Bengals funnel everything underneath, second most receiving yards per game allowed within 10 yards of line of scrimmage. Bengals also allow most fantasy points per game through air to running backs. Betting on passing volume from Aaron Rodgers. 19% ownership reasonable given role uncertainty and offense's disappointing performance through two weeks.

Insanely explosive player who can break a slate in three quarters. Dolphins allow most yards after contact per attempt to opposing running backs since start of last year. Walker currently leads all running backs in total yards after contact with 189 yards, 80 more than next closest (Derrick Henry). Chiefs are massive favorites, creating risk of limited fourth-quarter touches like Christian McCaffrey last week, but Walker's explosiveness and efficiency make him a total smash spot. 25% ownership feels light.

Playing significantly better than any point in his career. Panthers top five in pass rate over expectation and top in seconds per play; one of fastest-paced teams now after near-bottom last season under Dave Canales. New play caller Brad Idzik has changed offensive approach. Panthers continued aggressive passing even when benching Cooper Rush and playing Jack Strand in second half vs. Falcons, contrasting with last year's run-heavy approach. Both receivers project well for stacking. Strong interest in Bryce Young doubles.

Kevin O'Connell quarterback cheat code has produced 18-20 DraftKings points per game for most Vikings QBs, but Kyler faces schematic concerns. Ranks 42nd of 45 qualifying QBs in fantasy points per drop back against the blitz over past three years; scrambles even less against blitz. Todd Bowles' Buccaneers are a top blitz-rate defense. Game environment also concerning as both Vikings and Buccaneers playing slower this year.

Leads NFL in passing yards per game and catchable air yards per game over the split; drops back frequently and forces it downfield. At minimum price with 3% projected ownership, offers strong value despite Monday Night Football performance. Interceptions are part of the package that creates drop back volume and catchable air yards. Can be played naked due to min price, though has good stacking options with somewhat priced-up receivers.