NFL DFS Deep Dive

Chris Godwin is a strong target at 5,200 with only 7% ownership. He is underrated relative to Jalen McMillan, and his role in the slot allows him to avoid the shadow coverage of DJ Turner, who is expected to shadow McMillan. Godwin was a top-three fantasy wide receiver early in 2024.

Jaden Reed is a preferred Packers stack partner due to his efficiency against the blitz and his team-leading target-per-route-run rate against two-high safety looks. Like Watson, he is expected to benefit from a consolidated wide receiver rotation in the Packers' offense.

Christian Watson is a preferred Packers stack partner because he is a highly efficient target earner on a per-route basis. With Matt LaFleur signaling a reduction in the wide receiver rotation, Watson is projected for a near full-time route share, which historically correlates with top-12 wide receiver production.

Quentin Johnston is a viable play at 4,900, particularly as a double-stack partner with Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey. While he is a boom-bust player, the Chargers' shift toward heavier personnel and condensed target distribution makes him a solid value, though he is not a preferred one-off play over McConkey.

Jameson Williams is a top GPP play due to his deep-threat role and a favorable schematic matchup against the Saints, who utilize high rates of cover three and single-high looks. Williams sees a 47% target-per-route-run boost against single-high coverage and is 27% more efficient against cover three.

Ja'Marr Chase is the most confident wide receiver play among the high-ownership options, averaging nearly 28 DraftKings points in games with a 50+ over/under. He is a dynamic, slate-breaking talent compared to the more compiler-like profiles of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Chris Olave.

Chase Brown is a preferred play over Bucky Irving due to his elite workload in games started by Joe Burrow, where he averaged 21.7 expected fantasy points. Brown's upside is primarily through the air, as the Buccaneers were a major receiving-back funnel defense last year. He is a strong target for Burrow stacks or as a contrarian expensive running back.

Bucky Irving is a defensible play at 5,700 with Sean Tucker doubtful, which clarifies the backfield into a two-way split. While Irving struggled at the goal line last season, the absence of Tucker removes that specific competition, though Kenneth Gainwell could potentially vulture goal-line work.

Marshawn Lloyd is a strong value play at 4,800 with only 4% projected ownership. While there are concerns about a split backfield with Caleb Johnson and potential pass-protection issues against the Vikings' blitz-heavy defense, Lloyd was an elite per-touch prospect in college with high yards-after-contact metrics. He is the best cheap running back option on the slate, especially if the Packers lean into the run.

Travis Etienne is a fade because he is not the pass-catching threat many perceive him to be. Kellen Moore's offensive scheme historically does not design screens for running backs, which limits Etienne's upside, especially as a seven-point underdog.

Rico Dowdle is the preferred play over Jalen Warren if one is looking for a potential 70% snap-share back. He has previously been installed as an every-down back by Mike McCarthy and remains the most likely candidate to emerge in that role.

Jalen Warren is a highly talented back who consistently ranks near the top of the league in missed tackles forced per touch. Despite his efficiency, he is difficult to trust in small-field lineups due to the team's offensive uncertainty.

Keaton Mitchell is an efficient, explosive player but has limited snap volume and is currently dealing with a hamstring injury. While he has appeal in large-field GPPs as a gadget player, he is not a reliable every-down back compared to Hampton.

Omarion Hampton is a top-tier play due to his bell-cow potential and the Chargers' favorable matchup against the Cardinals. He hit a 75% snap share in four games last year, outperforming peers like Gibbs and Cook in that metric, and is built to be an every-down fantasy asset.

Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry are both highly game-script-sensitive running backs facing each other. Because they are not heavily involved in the passing game, they should not be played in the same DFS lineup as they cannot both benefit from positive game scripts simultaneously.

Derrick Henry is a game-script-sensitive player who relies on positive game flow. While he offers a high ceiling, his floor is less safe than Gentry's in full PPR formats. He is best played in lineups stacked with the Ravens' defense.

Chris Wecht ranks Devon Achane as a strong point-per-dollar play, positioning him just behind Jahmyr Gibbs in his projections.

Ryan argues that Devon Achane is overrated as a runner and relies too heavily on PPR production, which is capped by the Dolphins' limited pass attempt volume. Even with a 20% target share, the total volume is insufficient to justify his price, leading to a fade recommendation.

De'Von Achane is a fade due to the quarterback situation with Malik Willis. Willis's low dropback volume and high sack/scramble rate will severely limit the Dolphins' passing volume, capping Achane's PPR upside.

Jonathan Taylor is an intriguing 15% owned option. He is highly game-script sensitive, averaging 31.5 DraftKings points in wins last year with Daniel Jones. While the Colts are underdogs, the uncertainty of Week 1 makes him a high-upside tournament play.

Bijan Robinson is a fade candidate due to the quarterback change to Cooper Rush, who historically has one of the lowest running back target rates in the NFL. This significantly lowers Robinson's PPR floor in a tough matchup against the Steelers.

Jahmyr Gibbs is a 'bulletproof' chalk play at 40% projected ownership. He averaged over 30 DraftKings points in wins last year, and with David Montgomery gone and no established RB2, he is expected to dominate the Lions' backfield.

Dallas Goedert is an underrated stacking partner for Jalen Hurts. He has been as efficient as Devonta Smith on a per-route basis when AJ Brown is off the field, and the new offense's focus on middle-of-the-field throws, combined with the Commanders' tendency to play two-high safety looks, favors tight end production.

Rashad Bateman is a long-shot tournament option. Despite the team's draft actions not showing confidence in him, the coaching staff continues to talk him up as the WR2, suggesting he may have a role in the new offense.

Zay Flowers is the primary stacking partner for Lamar Jackson. While potentially slightly overpriced, he is a breakout candidate who could benefit from positive touchdown regression in a high-powered offense.

Jalen Hurts is a preferred quarterback option over Lamar Jackson for tournaments due to his high-leverage rushing upside near the goal line. He is in a new offense with play-caller Kellen Moore, and his 6% ownership makes him an attractive portfolio addition.

Daniel Jones is a viable large-field tournament play at 3% ownership. He led the NFL in passing yards per game through Week 10 last year before his injury, and the market's current negative sentiment is heavily influenced by his recovery from an Achilles injury and general skepticism of his talent.

Lamar Jackson is a strong tournament play at 6,800, as the market has forgotten his efficiency due to his injury-plagued season last year. He was the clear QB2 behind Josh Allen in DraftKings points over the previous three years, and he is now in a new, high-powered offense with play-caller Todd Monken.

Ryan Heath argues that 7% projected ownership for Joe Burrow is too low, dismissing the 'slow start' narrative as a myth tied to specific matchups against Myles Garrett. Heath highlights Burrow's elite efficiency against the blitz and notes that Todd Bowles' blitz-heavy defensive scheme is a perfect schematic matchup for him.

Ryan Heath identifies Jordan Love as a top contrarian play, noting the Packers' efficiency under Matt LaFleur and the potential for a more pass-heavy approach without Josh Jacobs. Love has averaged 23 DK points in games with 25+ dropbacks against Brian Flores' defense. Heath recommends stacking him with Jaden Reed and Christian Watson.

Neil highlights Kyler Murray as a superior value play compared to Tyler Shuck, noting his rushing upside and the historical success of quarterbacks under Kevin O'Connell's system, which has consistently produced viable fantasy scores from various signal-callers.

Ryan Heath acknowledges Mayfield's potential as a contrarian play at 5% ownership, noting his high efficiency early in 2024 before injuries. However, Heath expresses concern about the matchup against an improved Cincinnati defense and notes that the likely absence of Jalen McMillan condenses the passing attack, making him a secondary option.

Ryan Heath is neutral on Goff at 10% ownership, noting that while he is a viable play in a potential shootout, the team's offensive approach may shift under new play-caller Drew Petzing. Heath suggests the Lions might lean more on Jameer Gibbs to control the clock rather than maintaining the aggressive, high-scoring pace seen in previous seasons.

Ryan Heath identifies Herbert as the best play among chalk quarterbacks, citing the return of starting tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater; notes Herbert scored over 25 DraftKings points in every game he played with his starting left tackle last year. The Cardinals defense is a favorable matchup, ranking bottom seven in EPA per play allowed last season.

The source is hesitant to target Saquon Barkley at $6,900, citing his poor 2023 performance where he had only one tournament-winning score, despite his previous status as a league winner.

Dallas Goedert is an underrated value at $4,100; he boasts a 27% target per route run rate when A.J. Brown is off the field, which is higher than elite receivers like CeeDee Lamb.

Terry McLaurin is the only Washington player the source would consider, noting he has exceeded 17 DraftKings points in 53% of games played with Jayden Daniels, though he remains an iffy value.

Michael Mayer is a top-value play at $2,900 with Brock Bowers out; he has a proven track record of production in games without Bowers and projects as the Raiders' de facto wide receiver one.

Ashton Dulin is fully healthy and off the injury report after a full week of practice, making him a strong value play at his current price point.

The source suggests pairing Devon Achane with Malik Willis to capture Miami's touchdown upside, noting that Achane's target share should remain stable because Willis historically targets first reads at a high rate.