PodcastFrom NFL DFS Deep Dive
Winning the UFL Championship: DFS Deep Dive & Lineup Tips
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42 min
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Jun 11, 2026
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Thu, June 11, 2026
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Episode Transcript
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0:52Hey guys, and welcome to the championship edition of the Fantasy Points UFL Breakdown.
0:56I'm here with Millionaire Maker winner and one of the winningest spring football DFS players of all time, Neil Orfield.
1:02Neil, it's our final game of the year. How you doing?
1:05You know, it's not the championship game that I wanted, but I think it's going to be a fun one because obviously
1:11I wanted my storm to make it to the championship.
1:14But it's kind of could still be a really fun game seeing the Jason being rival or not rivalry.
1:19Jason being what word am I looking for? Revenge game.
1:22Could be kind of a fun one. So yeah, excited, excited for the championship.
1:26It's going to be sad to not have professional football for a few months.
1:30But yeah, excited to do a final show with you.
1:33Yeah, yeah, this is always a ton of fun.
1:36Really appreciate Neil doing these shows with me all year long.
1:39Really appreciate everyone else for tuning in. Always means a lot to me to be able to do this kind of work.
1:45And you know, the championship is always sort of the culmination of what I consider to be some of the most fun
1:51work I get to do all year long. So this should be a really good time.
1:56Of course, if you if you guys are looking for NFL content because our UFL content is coming to an end after this week, go check out fantasypoints.com.
2:04You can save 10% on our packages on a fantasy pro or fantasy bundle subscription with promo code UFL 2026.
2:09And that's promo code UFL 2026 for 10% off should be a really, really awesome NFL season.
2:14I'm, of course, very excited for that as soon as UFL ends all plenty of offseason writing there.
2:19Also wanted to note at the top of the show, my championship article, which is, I believe, 2500 words on every relevant
2:25player in this game is free to read. So if you guys want to browse that, I'll keep that updated with any
2:32relevant news and notes as the week unfolds. Definitely check that out over on fantasypoints.com as well.
2:36Um, Neil, before I read the game line here, wanted to note the injury report mostly because it's so light.
2:42So we really don't have too much to worry about here.
2:45Louisville only has three defensive players listed on or sorry, two defensive players and a tackle listed on their injury report.
2:51DC defenders have a tackle listed. And then for our purposes, Briley Moore is was limited on Tuesday with a hamstring issue.
2:57Mason Fairchild was limited on Tuesday with a shin issue.
3:00Fairchild's the guy I want to keep an eye on the most as we head into this player analysis.
3:06He missed last week with this shin issue. They ended up rolling with Briley Moore as their only tight end, but did
3:12want to note that at the top of the show.
3:15Hopefully no surprising inactives or weird injury stuff this week.
3:17Uh, Neil game line here. We've got a season high total at 49 and a half Louisville.
3:22This game's in DC, but Louisville is actually technically the home team because they are the higher seed.
3:27Um, so this is the DC defenders at the Louisville Kings, even though the game is in DC.
3:32DC is favored by a point and a half.
3:35And like I said, the total 49 and a half year, Neil, what do you think of the line?
3:40Yeah. I mean, the, the, the scoring does tend to go up throughout the season.
3:45Um, these defenses, man, I probably take the under just because it's so high, but, uh, hoping, hoping we'll get some fireworks.
3:51So hoping for the over, but if I were going to bet something and probably bet the under here.
3:56Yeah. Yeah. I think I'm with you probably a bit too high on the total.
4:00Um, and I probably would take DC minus the one and a half.
4:04I think if Jason beans on it, uh, I do think they are the better team here.
4:09Plus the home field advantage, uh, should help them out a decent bit.
4:13Neil, let's start with the Louisville side of this game.
4:15Um, you know, obviously a lot to cover here, but you know, starting with the quarterback, what do you think of Chandler Rogers?
4:22And I'm sort of curious because when I, uh, you know, when I do like an initial run of, you know, my
4:28own personal lineups or even just for ownership, getting a lot of both quarterbacks in the captain spot.
4:33Rogers in particular feels like a better flex play than a captain plays really only had one spike week all year.
4:39Where, where are you at on, uh, Chandler Rogers here and how are you kind of working them into lineups?
4:45Yeah. I mean, I'll, I'll have some Chandler Rogers at captain and he'll be in, you know, he'll be in a majority of my lineups.
4:52Like he'll, he'll be in more than half of my lineups overall for sure.
4:56I do think like for, for NFL often, um, you know, sharper people will tell you like non non rushing quarterbacks are generally over owned at captain.
5:04Um, relative to like their, uh, frequency of being in the best possible lineup.
5:07I do think that's like a little bit less relevant, less of a concern in a field of just, you know, 1400.
5:14Is it? Yeah. 1470 total entries. Like you don't need to hit the perfect lineup.
5:18So I think it's a little bit more viable to play the quarterbacks at captain.
5:22Um, and, and Rogers, we saw actually, you know, can rush a little bit when he wants to, he had the rushing touchdown a couple of weeks back.
5:30Um, so he's, he's a fine captain option. Probably not.
5:33Some of y'all have more than like 15% at captain, like at most.
5:37Uh, but if you have Rogers at captain, I would want to have him at least single stack.
5:42Most of the time I'll have it, uh, with multi stacks.
5:45Talk about this all the time. Uh, when I do NFL DFS content that the quarterback usually is going to be, you
5:51know, the most expensive or one of the most expensive players on their team.
5:55And if they're not a big time rushing quarterback, every play they make, every time they score fantasy points, somebody else on
6:01their team is scoring more fantasy points. Cause the receiver on every, uh, pass catch is getting a point perception.
6:07They're getting more points per yard, more points per touchdown.
6:10So it's hard for the quarterback to be optimal at captain, unless they're spreading the ball around.
6:15If they don't spread the ball around, um, enough, then their pass catchers just going to outscore them because the pass catcher, you know, scores them each place.
6:22So usually if I have a non rushing quarterback, I want to have multiple pass catchers, uh, non rushing quarterback at captain
6:29because of the price tag, because of the dynamics.
6:31I prefer, I want to have multiple pass catchers in the flex here.
6:35I think like maybe you get enough rushing from Rogers that you can do just a single stack.
6:40Uh, but I would always want at least one pass catcher in, in the lineup.
6:44If I have Chandler Rogers at quarter at captain.
6:47Yeah. Yeah. I think that, that makes a lot of sense.
6:50And I think a big key, you know, as we sort of discussed this showdown slate, uh, isn't just talking about the individual plays.
6:57Um, but talking about, you know, how we're going to build our lineups around those, uh, individual plays.
7:02Um, you know, let's talk running back before we move on to these pass catchers.
7:06I think this is going to be pretty straightforward, especially because, you know, we only saw two active for Louisville last week.
7:12I did sort of speculate that maybe Jaden Sheridan, um, could be, you know, the backup running back to RB three.
7:18We didn't see that. I expect Sheridan to be inactive again here, uh, for the championship.
7:23Uh, last week we did see James Robinson, you know, pretty clearly lead the way in terms of snaps and routes.
7:29He was at 60% of snaps, 52% of routes, uh, weighted opportunity ended up being fairly evenly split between him and Ian Wheeler.
7:35Wheeler finished with 52% of backfield weighted opportunity Robinson at just 48%.
7:39Um, curious how you view these running backs and, you know, personally, when I, you know, when I push a running back
7:45into the captain spot in particular, I'm, I'm generally boosting the defense, but I, I'm, I'm very curious on your thoughts for, um, uh, running back.
7:52Like, like, you know, either Robinson or Ian Wheeler, if you want them in your, in your captain spot, how are you sort of building around that?
8:00Yeah. I liked them both quite a bit, both at captain and in the flex.
8:04I also think, you know, we, we talk about, uh, things you can do to be a little bit different on, on showdowns.
8:11Let's again, it's a smaller one. So you don't need to get super crazy, but I think one thing you can do
8:17that is going to be a bit unique, not super unique.
8:20And certainly can hit is playing both of them together.
8:23James Robinson and Ian Wheeler. We've seen them hit together multiple times this season, especially it was just the two of them active.
8:29They're getting most of the work. I love the idea of pairing the two of them.
8:34We also have relatively low ownership on both of them, uh, at captain.
8:37So I think both make for fairly strong captain plays, but we have, uh, James Robinson at, uh, sorry, just, just had this up.
8:44And then I switched to a different tab here, but I've got them at 6% in the, uh, in the captain Ian Wheeler at, uh, at just 1%.
8:52Yeah. And I love both of those. I mean, Ian Wheeler, we've seen be like the top scorer.
8:57Uh, I think he was a top scorer multiple times, but at that price tag, he can definitely be the captain that
9:03you want if you score the touchdown. So I love them both as captain plays.
9:08They're just, they're both relative to ownership. We've got James Robinson at like 35% total ownership in Wheeler, sub 20% total ownership.
9:14I think they're two really, really strong plays, um, for this slate.
9:17So yeah, I'll, I'll have a good amount of both these quarterbacks.
9:21I won't be afraid to play, uh, them in the lineup together.
9:24Even if I do have one of my captain, uh, yeah, I, I think it makes sense to boost the defense.
9:30If you, if you do play one of these, especially if you have them at captain, um, to give just a very slight boost to the defense.
9:38I wouldn't, I wouldn't go overboard. Um, but yeah, I make it slightly more likely that you get the defense in there.
9:44If you play one at a captain, I think that makes sense.
9:47Love that. Um, when it comes to these wide receivers, Neil, I mean, I think we're pretty fortunate, uh, at least on
9:53the Louisville side in the sense that, you know, there's really only three guys that we need to worry about in terms of, uh, captain viability.
10:01There are a few other guys we can talk about as, you know, potential flex plays.
10:05Um, but you know, lucky Jackson, Isaiah Winstead, Tariq black all over a 90% route share in the semifinals.
10:11I mean, we kind of know that these are the big three.
10:14The craziest thing to me here though, Neil, is that Tariq black is only 5,800.
10:18I mean, there's a huge price gap between him and Winstead who's all the way up at 98.
10:23Uh, lucky Jackson, a little bit more reasonably priced at 6,400, but I expect Tariq black to be right there as the
10:30highest owned non quarterback, uh, in the captain. I've got, I believe I have him in Cornell Powell, uh, right around like
10:3610 to 12% in the captain spot. I may bump that as the week goes on.
10:40We'll, uh, we'll see sort of how industry stuff unfolds and we are recording on Wednesday here.
10:45So a little early this week. Um, but how are you viewing these wide receivers and sort of any general tips for,
10:51you know, if I want to play Winstead, if I want to play black as a captain, I imagine I'm boosting Chandler Rogers.
10:58Is there anything else I need to look out for on those showdown builds?
11:02If I am playing a wide receiver, a captain?
11:04No, I don't think so. Like, I think, um, like you agreed, like, yeah, maybe, maybe a slight boost to Chandler Rogers.
11:11It is also something that, uh, tends to get, it's more unique if you don't play Chandler Rogers in those.
11:16So if you have Isaiah Winsett, a captain and you don't play Chandler Rogers, it's going to be more unique, but also
11:23like, I don't know how, how much you have to go out of your way to get unique on a 1500 person field.
11:29Um, so I think most of the time, if I have one of these, of these receivers, I captain, I probably will have Chandler Rogers.
11:36There are ways for them to get there. As we were discussing, like the dynamics of the score and on draft Kings,
11:42where you get a point per reception, it's easier to get the bonus.
11:46Cause they only need the a hundred, um, hundred yards to get the bonus.
11:50So the receiver can hit it without the quarterback getting there.
11:53And, and maybe the quarterback just throws one touchdown, but, uh, the, the receiver ends up with a hundred yards and a touchdown and eight catches.
12:00And like, suddenly the, you know, the receiver has gone completely off.
12:04The expensive quarterback doesn't fit. So it's like, you don't need to have the quarterback in there.
12:09Um, but yeah, I think it makes sense. Like you said, to, to give a little bit of a boost to the quarterback.
12:15Uh, Tariq black like that is hilarious that he's still 1500.
12:18Like they just, they just do not respect Tariq black at draft Kings.
12:22Um, cause it's been several weeks now where he's just been like, yep, this is a clear value.
12:27Just got to play Tariq black. Um, and I think we continue to do it.
12:31We've only got them slightly over 50% ownership. So I think that's, that's, you know, a fair number.
12:36I think that's, uh, if anything, I might end up above weight on that, where we've got him at like 52%.
12:42Um, there could be a point if he gets up to, you know, 70, 75% ownership.
12:47Suddenly I might think of a lot of the, uh, about fading that a bit.
12:51Um, but yeah, no, I think he's, uh, maybe the best, the best play on the slate.
12:56I think 10% captain is great for Tariq black.
12:58Like he could just, he could outright be the highest score and he's this cheap and you can fit so much in there.
13:05So yeah, I think Tariq black fantastic play lucky Jackson.
13:08Um, I don't, we haven't really seen it hit yet.
13:11Have we with, uh, with Chandler Rogers, at least in bear, or maybe there was a game that I'm forgetting.
13:16No, you're, you're right. Lucky Jackson's big games came in the first few weeks of the season.
13:21So yeah, we haven't seen it yet with Chandler Rogers.
13:24But I mean, the argument that I've sort of made all year for lucky Jackson is we know the talents there.
13:30Like I, I, at least on film, I really haven't seen anything particularly concerning.
13:34He's still out there. Um, you know, Winstead and black have been a bigger priority later in the season, but I think
13:40lucky Jackson at, uh, uh, you know, we've got him at 6% for, uh, for our captain ownership projection, 31% flex zone.
13:46You know, I think that's, that's pretty interesting because he does have a comparable ceiling to all the other wide receivers in this game.
13:53I'd say, you know, 25 DK and, uh, uh, in like a 95th percentile outcome.
13:57Um, are you, are you interested there in, uh, lucky Jackson captain?
14:01Oh, big, yeah. Big time. I mean, he's only $600 more expensive than Tariq black.
14:05Like you said, like we, we have, he has not hit with Chandler Rogers yet.
14:09It's still like a relatively small sample. Obviously it's gotten bigger.
14:12So it's not like a tiny, tiny sample, but, um, like, yeah, like, like you said, I still believe in the talent.
14:19I think that the upside is there and we get, uh, an O a big time ownership discount because he's, you know,
14:25$600 cheaper projects a little bit worse. So we'll get him at 6% captain 32% flex.
14:29Yeah. I think lucky Jackson, a fantastic play, both, both the captain and the flex, frankly.
14:34Yeah. Something that I was playing around with a little bit, uh, before we move on here was for these, you know,
14:40particularly Louisville wide receivers in the, in the captain spot, playing with like a two, four build, because I noted this in
14:46my article, um, Louisville was very run heavy in their two, two games against the DC defenders.
14:51Chandler Rogers didn't even attempt more than 26 passes.
14:54So I think it's, you know, in a lot of these scripts where, uh, Tariq black, Winstead, Lucky Jackson end up being the optimal captain.
15:01It might actually be a game where DC gets out to an early lead, um, and sort of main maintains control that whole time.
15:07So I was, you know, I've been playing around with some builds that are like Winstead captain, uh, you know, Dion Jackson,
15:14uh, Jason being, uh, you know, a couple DC pass catchers and then Chandler Rogers, or maybe another Louisville pass catcher, something like that.
15:20Is, is pretty interesting. Just given that we know Louisville wants to run the ball.
15:25They've shifted more run heavy since they put Chandler Rogers in and they were particularly run heavy against DC and had quite
15:31a bit of success, uh, doing so. Um, anything to add there, Neil?
15:35Yeah. I guess you asked me what you can, you know, look out for if you're playing one of these receivers at captain.
15:41I do think like to, to your point, like one thing that I sometimes set rules for is like, if you have
15:47one of these, uh, pass catchers at captain, no more than one other receiver in the flex or something like that.
15:53I'm probably not going to set that rule, but that is something you can consider.
15:58Cause like if lucky Jackson is having a big enough game that he is the captain, it's less likely.
16:03I think that both Isaiah Winstead and Tariq black also hit in a way that they're going to hit your lineup.
16:09They're all, they're all like priced well enough that I don't, I don't think I'm going to set any kind of rule
16:15like that, but that is, you know, something, something to consider when you have the receiver in the captain spot.
16:21Cause usually, you know, if they're scoring enough to be the captain, they're getting a lot of the volume and probably two
16:27of their receivers are not going to get there, but it's all, you know, price dependent.
16:31And there's, there's other factors. Right. Right. I like that.
16:34I think that's a sharp take there. Um, when it comes to sort of these guys who I wouldn't personally consider captain
16:41viable, but are very interesting flex plays for Louisville.
16:43It's for the most part, really just the tight ends in Zach Davidson and, uh, Trey McKitty Davidson, only 2,400 Trey McKitty, 1200.
16:50They both project as solid values. Of course, both players are, you know, kind of in that touchdown or bus category.
16:56Uh, Davidson's out targeted McKitty 19 to 13 in their six regular season games together.
17:00We did see McKitty, uh, earn a 48% route share compared to Davidson's 40% route share last week.
17:05I don't think that means a ton because Louisville only ran, I think it was like 40%.
17:10They barely had the ball in that game against St.
17:13Louis. I saw James Larson posted time of possession.
17:15St. Louis had the ball for 41 minutes. Um, just a very, very weird game the way that unfolded.
17:20Um, so I still think Davidson's the, the better target earner here, uh, probably the most, uh, or I would say definitively
17:27the most upside between the two, but you know, all it takes is a touchdown for either of these guys to get you there.
17:33Um, anything you're looking out for with these tight ends, Neil?
17:37Yeah. No, I like the call. Like they're both playing enough.
17:40Like you said, like you just need a, on a showdowns that you, you get a touchdown at those prices.
17:45You probably want them in your lineup. So if they're both strong calls, I'm also looking at like Tyler Hudson ran three
17:52routes last week, Caden Crather ran to the field is small enough, um, that you don't necessarily need to go there.
17:57But you know, I, if you want to take a shot on either, I think that's a fine.
18:03Not like not somebody, neither players that I would make a big part of my portfolio, but similar, like if they score a touchdown, there's a good chance.
18:11You want them. And then you're going to get them at low ownership.
18:14Yeah. I wrote up Prather. I, you know, Hudson's kind of been on, on the outside looking in a little bit more
18:20so than Prather Prather, you know, in games where all these wide receivers have been healthy.
18:25We've seen him pop for maybe like a 25% route share a couple of different times this season.
18:30So, so he would be my preference there. Um, the other thing to note with these cheap Louisville guys, you know, primarily
18:36the tight ends, but I could get to maybe a share of a guy like Prather, maybe Hudson, um, you know, we're
18:42submitting 44 lineups this week because the contest is a little bigger.
18:46So, so that helps a bit, but something to keep in mind is, you know, when, uh, DFS players are dipping into
18:52these super cheap guys, Braylon Sanders is like the best option by far.
18:56We haven't talked about him yet. Uh, but that's really going to reduce the flex ownership of guys like Zach Davidson, McKitty,
19:02uh, Prather in particular will probably be, uh, you know, I don't, what do I have here for him?
19:07Yeah. 1% or sorry, 2% for Prather, 1% for Hudson.
19:10So, um, you know, you, you do get a huge ownership discount probably, or, uh, definitively compared to a guy like Braylon
19:16Sanders, uh, who we will talk about here shortly.
19:19Uh, Neil, I'll save kickers and defense for the end.
19:22Let's move over to the DC side of this game.
19:25Uh, this is our final chance of the season, Neil, to be bean boozled.
19:29Um, I've been, I've been making that joke on Twitter a bunch.
19:32Neil, you're familiar with the, the children's jelly bean game known as bean boozled, right?
19:36I am not. Are you really? Oh, okay. I thought everyone, I thought everyone got that.
19:41That's a game where you eat a jelly bean and it's either like lime or fart flavored.
19:46Oh, it's like a Harry Potter thing. Right. Yeah.
19:48I think it is literally from Harry Potter. Um, so, and that's how I feel with Jason Bean.
19:53You know, sometimes he's a delicious flavor. Other times he's fart flavored.
19:57Uh, last week we saw the delicious version of Jason Bean.
20:00Uh, Tom has one of my, my tweets on the screen.
20:03This is, this has been my go-to joke with Jason Bean all year.
20:06I've missed this one. I guess I don't see all of your tweets.
20:10Yeah, this is, well, you got to have me on notifications.
20:13You're right. You're right. It's my bad. But, um, yeah, Neil, this is our final chance to get bean boozled, uh, by Jason Bean.
20:20I think, uh, you know, pretty definitively he's, uh, the player in this game with the best floor.
20:25Uh, you know, the rushing that we've seen from him, 78 rushing yards per game at his two starts for DC is, is just pretty incredible.
20:33And I mean, he was on it passing last week.
20:35You know, I think he, he does give this offense a similar, um, or comparable upside to what we saw when Jordan Ta'amu was the quarterback.
20:43Uh, you know, he can hit those deep throws.
20:45Um, he can, he's capable of being good on RPOs and obviously the rushing upside is, is very, very strong.
20:51Um, so yeah, Neil, what do you think of Jason Bean?
20:54I, I like him a lot more as a captain than I do Chandler Rogers.
20:58I'm going to play both as captains, but, uh, Bean, I, Bean, I greatly prefer, I would say.
21:03Yeah. I mean, Bean, uh, I think I agree with you.
21:06It's all going to be somewhat ownership dependent. And I guess Bean, we have at, what, like 6% higher ownership than Rogers.
21:13I do. I think he's the better captain option.
21:15Um, he's only $200 more expensive. Um, but the ownership is, you know, uh, enough higher that I don't feel that strongly about it.
21:22Uh, but yeah, I mean, he, he throws the ball, throws the deep ball, uh, and he rushes, which, which you love that in a captain.
21:29It also means, you know, if he connects on deep balls, the receiver, like they're not getting the PPR scam in their way there.
21:36It's like, they're, they're not outscoring him by quite as much as if it's, you know, four catches to, to score the touchdown.
21:43Um, so sure. I think, uh, being, being makes for a strong captain option, um, similar to Rogers that you can, I
21:49would, I would want at least one pass catcher with him in the flex.
21:53If I have my captain, um, I think you can get through with just one because of the rushing upside.
21:59Um, but yeah, he's going to be, uh, also in a majority.
22:02I mean, I, I guess the, we have them projected for like 90 some percent overall ownership.
22:07I suspect I come in slightly lower than that, but, uh, some, somewhere in that 80 to 90% range overall.
22:12Yeah. That's kind of what I was thinking too, where I, I'd imagine I'd end up, you know, we've got 23% in the captain.
22:19I think I'm going to be a bit higher than that, but in the flex, I'll probably be a little bit lower.
22:25Um, I don't necessarily know, you know, last week I said, I, I think Jason beams got pretty solid benching risk.
22:31I gave, uh, Spencer Sanders 10% of dropbacks. Uh, being ended up hurting his shoulder on a, on a like very soft contact play.
22:38I thought that was like a abnormal injury. Um, but then Spencer Sanders came in and immediately threw a pick six.
22:44So I can't imagine the benching risk is a particularly significant this week.
22:48I have Jason beam for a hundred percent of quarterback work for DC, uh, in our projections.
22:53Uh, Neil, this backfield, you know, I, I was hopeful that Dion Jackson would earn something resembling a bell cow role, maybe
22:59a workhorse role, uh, in the playoffs, especially after we saw him only play in the first quarter of week 10.
23:05Unfortunately, Dion Jackson was at 40% of snaps, uh, 37% of routes and 37% of, uh, backfield weighted opportunity.
23:10Zavion Valaday at 36% of backfield weighted opportunity and 30% of snaps.
23:13Abram Smith also at 30% of snaps, 27% of backfield weighted opportunity.
23:17I don't know if this matters a ton. I did think Abram Smith looked the best of the three backs last week.
23:23So that was a little encouraging, uh, for Abram.
23:26Um, but you know, I think Neil, we can, we can say with, with relative certainty, this is going to be a gross three-way committee.
23:33Uh, no one is really the favorite to earn more than say 40% of backfield weighted opportunity.
23:38Um, I think the best argument that you can make for the players in this backfield, particularly a guy like Dion Jackson,
23:44who's really priced up at 9,400 is you're just not going to get much captain ownership there.
23:49I mean, we know he could pop for 15, 20 DK, maybe even a little more.
23:53We've only got him for 3% captain ownership. So, so how are you viewing this backfield?
23:58Uh, cause, um, yeah, it's, it's hard to make an argument for Jackson, you know, on raw projection, but we've seen the upside before.
24:04Yeah. 3% ownership I think is, is reasonable for, for Jackson.
24:08Like, I don't think I'm going to want much more than that.
24:11Maybe, maybe slightly more than the 3%. Um, I want to make sure I have some Jackson that captain because like we've
24:17said time and time again, like we've seen the upside to just break a 40 yard touchdown or, you know, he'd get those goal line opportunities.
24:24Um, and he's not going to be super highly owned.
24:27It's just such a gross, such a gross committee.
24:30Uh, three, three-way committee here is just, it's tough to get excited about any of them.
24:34It's hard to predict who's going to get those goal line opportunities.
24:38Jackson's so expensive, uh, overall though, you know, 18% ownership feels about right.
24:41I probably want a little bit more captain, a little bit less at flex than we have.
24:46Um, maybe, um, yeah, maybe not. Maybe, maybe I come in just right where we are.
24:5115% flex and just a little bit more captain.
24:53So maybe I do want to be slightly above weight to Jackson.
24:57Um, but I think Abram Smith is the better play here.
25:00Like Abram Smith, just one fewer carry last week.
25:02He's 3,600, um, getting under sub, sub 10% total ownership, none of captain.
25:06I think that's a, that's a pretty strong play.
25:09None. And when I say a strong play, I probably mean I'll have, you know, 15 to 20% and I'll have a couple of shares at captain maybe.
25:17Um, and that'll be enough to be different. And it gives you opportunities to, uh, have, have a unique lineup.
25:22But it's even validate, uh, getting more ownership than Smith, uh, both a captain and a flex.
25:27I like him. I like him less than Smith.
25:30So I think Smith overall relative to ownership would be my favorite of the three.
25:34Um, probably validate second just because he's so much cheaper and then Jackson third.
25:38Uh, but yeah, validate 1% ownership, 16% flexing seems fine.
25:41Uh, yeah, it's, I kind of want to throw my hands up.
25:44Uh, you know, it's hard to have a real take here.
25:47Cause it's like, who's going to score the touchdown.
25:50Who's going to make the one big play of these running backs.
25:53But my, my, my favorite would be Abram Smith for the, uh, the lowest ownership.
25:57Yeah. Yeah, no, I think that's, uh, that's certainly reasonable.
26:00And you know, another thing to point out with both Abram Smith and validate is they're both live for goal line carries here.
26:07You know, Dion Jackson has led the way they've had 19 inside the five rush attempts this year.
26:12Dion Jackson has 10, uh, validate has five and Abram Smith has four.
26:15So, uh, you know, with either of these guys kind of similar to the Louisville tight ends that we talked about earlier,
26:22a single touchdown, and they're going to be looking pretty good in the flex, a long breakaway run.
26:27And, you know, all of a sudden you might have a bit of a, you know, an argument for, uh, some captain exposure there.
26:33And, you know, they're all, uh, they're all fairly explosive rushers.
26:37Um, when it comes to these wide receivers, Neil, we saw, uh, you know, Cornell Powell led the way.
26:42He is the most secure role here. He was at a 95% route share in week 10.
26:47I sort of wrote off or sorry, in the, in the semifinals.
26:50Um, I sort of wrote off, uh, Braylon Sanders, 73% route share in week 10 as, uh, you know, a bit of
26:56an aberration, just, um, you know, I thought they were, uh, doing a little, uh, being a little weird with their wide receiver rotations.
27:03I didn't really pay too much mind, uh, to it.
27:06They started out the game in the playoffs, like force feeding Braylon Sanders.
27:10He finished the game, leading the team and targets only finished with the 53% route share, but Ty Scott wasn't that far
27:16ahead of him at 63% in terms of routes.
27:18So, um, you know, Braylon Sanders, as I noted earlier, only 2k, uh, just a fantastic, fantastic value.
27:24Another thing to note here is that they've been playing Cornell Powell a little bit more in the slot, which has sort
27:30of reduced the route ceiling, um, for guys like Kiki QT and Azuconma.
27:33Um, they, they've been rolling with, uh, on a few instances, an 11 personnel grouping.
27:38That's, you know, Ty Scott, Braylon Sanders on the outside, Cornell Powell in the slot.
27:42Um, so, you know, that's another thing to keep in mind is it just sort of increases the floor.
27:47Braylon Sanders playing time. Um, and yeah, he's, he's only 2k and he's also a guy that's, uh, uh, you know, even
27:54if he was running the 39% of routes that he averaged prior to week 10, one 40 yard catch and you're, you're good there.
28:00Um, so yeah, Neil, how are you viewing these DC wide receivers?
28:04Obviously we know Cornell Powell is going to be a very popular captain, very popular flex play.
28:09Uh, I'm a little more interested in your thoughts on, you know, guys like Ty Scott, Braylon Sanders, how you want to handle them.
28:15Um, yeah, I mean, it's, I, I love, I love these receivers.
28:19Um, and I love them at captain also. I think Powell, a fantastic captain play, uh, Ty Scott, I think, you know,
28:25we've, we've seen the upside, you know, down to 63% route share last week is, is obviously not ideal, but we know
28:31Ty Scott has the ability to just break it with, uh, a play or two.
28:35So yeah, I'm going to like Ty Scott quite a bit.
28:39And then, yeah, I agree. I like your call on, uh, Braylon Sanders being a pretty obvious, great play.
28:44Um, I think as a comma and Kiki Kuti are in play also, like we, we saw them get pretty involved last week.
28:50Um, both still running a fair number of routes, five and four targets last week.
28:55So I don't want to write off, uh, Kuti and, and as you can, but just because Powell's playing more, more, uh, slap, more slot snaps.
29:02Um, cause both still, still played a fair amount.
29:05So yeah, I'm going to like all of them.
29:07I'm trying to find getting back to the, uh, the ownership tab.
29:10So we, we have a Powell at 12% captain 44% flex.
29:14That all seems good. Like, I think, I think I prefer, I think I like Powell better than 12% captain Ty Scott at, well, maybe not.
29:21Cause you can only play so many Ty Scott.
29:23We have, um, 3%. I really liked that. I'll definitely be above 3% Ty Scott at captain.
29:28And we only have him around 20% overall, which is, which is pretty great.
29:32So I think Ty Scott, fantastic play. And Braylon Sanders.
29:35I mean, we, we talk about, um, uh, Tariq black being such a great value and a great play, but I think
29:41Braylon Sanders coming in at, you know, just over 36% total ownership, uh, feel, feels pretty good to me.
29:47And not, not that all of that much more, I'll still probably have him in, you know, 40 something percent of my
29:53last, but I will be above weight on Braylon Sanders.
29:56Um, we have like no ownership going to Kiki QT right now.
29:59And we have, uh, 1% as a comma captain 11% flex.
30:02I don't feel that strongly about, uh, QT versus as a comma, uh, based on what we saw last week.
30:08So I think I'd probably even that out a little bit or, you know, I'll probably come, uh, overweight on that total
30:14number for those two, but I might even out, um, the exposure.
30:18So maybe slightly underweight on as a comma overweight on QT.
30:21If, if this is where the ownership lands, but I think both are relatively strong plays.
30:25So I guess my takeaway is I love, I love playing this passing game.
30:29I think, um, this is, this is a really, a strong way to play it.
30:33I'm trying to figure out like, where, where can I get?
30:36Cause like gotta be under on somebody. Right. So, so who, who, who am I going to be under on here?
30:42And it's tough. Cause I, cause I really like all of these ownership numbers on the receivers.
30:47Um, going to make it tougher for me to go overboard on as you can my NQT.
30:52Like I'm, I'm kind of tempted to, um, yeah, I don't know.
30:55I'm, I'm still trying to figure out where I can be under, because I think these are all fantastic plays at relatively low ownership.
31:02Yeah. I'm, I'm kind of there with you. I mean, as you canma and QT both ran 45% of routes.
31:08That's, you know, normally we've seen as you canma working ahead of QT.
31:12Um, but last week they, they were closer to a, to a split there.
31:16So, um, I'm going to even out their, uh, their projections a little bit after the show.
31:20And I'm sure QT, you know, if I had to guess would probably end up sub 1% captain, but maybe in a
31:276 to 10% range for, for flex ownership. So you really won't get much there.
31:31And, you know, again, they're sort of in a similar, price range where a guy like Braylon Sanders is going to take
31:37away a lot of flex ownership from those guys.
31:40Uh, only other thing I wanted to note is that if you are playing Braylon Sanders captain, I imagine he will, you
31:46know, be by far the, um, most popular cheap captain, especially after a guy like Tariq Black, who's almost 4k more expensive.
31:52Uh, and Neil, this is something that we've talked about on these championship shows, uh, previously.
31:57Uh, you know, when you play these really cheap captains, the temptation is just to jam all the highest priced guys and
32:03you do increase your chances at being duplicated. So that's just something to be mindful of, um, if you are playing a
32:09Braylon Sanders captain lineup, uh, only other guy that I wanted to know, well, I guess the tight end situation for DC,
32:15you know, Briley Moore worked as the only tight end last week.
32:19No Mason Fairchild, Ben Bresnahan was a healthy scratch.
32:21Uh, Briley Moore ended up finishing with 58% of routes for targets.
32:25Uh, and of course scored 15.5. Fantasy points had that nice touchdown, uh, later in the game.
32:29Uh, Bradley Moore is a guy that I would, you know, really like from a touchdown equity perspective, uh, very, very strong,
32:36uh, regardless of if Mason Fairchild plays or not.
32:38Uh, Mason Fairchild though, only 1k. So if he ends up playing, you know, he's in line for probably 25 to 35% of routes.
32:45Um, and he would also fall into the touchdown or bust category of play.
32:49And DC really prioritizes, uh, their tight ends in the red zone in particular.
32:53So both of those guys carry pretty solid touchdown equity.
32:56I like both of them. And I will still get to Briley Moore, uh, even if Fairchild's out there.
33:01Um, yeah. Anything to add on those tight ends, Neil?
33:04Yeah. I think the ownership is about right. Like we have Bradley Moore around 20% ownership.
33:08Um, yeah, I was just thinking, thinking through a way because I feel like I've liked every play on the slate so far.
33:15So I need to like figure out, okay, like these all seem too low to me.
33:19I guess it is Jason Bean is one place I'm going to be probably a bit under the field.
33:25Like I'm going to be over, over 50%, but I can still be well under the field.
33:30Um, just cause we have so much ownership going there.
33:32And I think you could see it work out where Jason beam puts up 18 fantasy points and you know, the receivers
33:39get there and he doesn't quite get there. Um, so I think that that's a spot I will end up a bit
33:45lighter, uh, in order to get to higher shares of, of some of these lower own players.
33:50Um, but yeah, I think the, the tight ends, uh, we'll have to wait and see if Mason Fairchild is active.
33:56If he's out probably more a, you know, strong, strong play at 4,000, somebody I'll be overweight on 0.4% captain, but, uh,
34:02I don't know that I think 20% overall seems about right.
34:05Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think that is reasonable. Um, I believe we've covered every skill player here, Neil, uh, which means we
34:11get to move on to the most fun plays of the slate kickers and defense.
34:15Pretty much the only time all year we will talk about these players, uh, for what it's worth.
34:21This is like the best possible kicking matchup in the league.
34:24Um, both of these kickers are, uh, like kind of insanely good fantasy players.
34:28Tanner Brown averages 12 draft Kings fantasy points per game.
34:30Matt McCrane averages 10.6 draft Kings fantasy points per game.
34:33Those are the third and sixth best marks amongst slate eligible players.
34:37Both guys are priced outside of the top 14 players by salary.
34:40And by raw field goal rate, Louisville's at 4.7%.
34:43DC's at 3.7%. So these are the most field goal, happy teams in the UFL.
34:47Both these kickers have a heck of a heck of a leg.
34:50I believe we've seen 60 yard, four point field goals from both guys.
34:54Um, these are just really, really strong kicking plays.
34:56Uh, Neil, when you're working kickers into your lineup, is there anything, you know, that you're doing with your, with your settings
35:03or any sort of builds you're trying to focus on?
35:05Um, I think kicker captain is in play here, particularly if this ends up being a bit of a lower scoring game,
35:12because we've seen so much success, uh, from these kickers this season.
35:15Uh, yeah. What are your thoughts on, uh, these, these wonderful kickers here?
35:19Yeah. To be honest, I never really played kickers until I started, started building with, with saber segment.
35:24They kind of make their way in there naturally.
35:26And I'm like, yeah, cause they, they do like, they make it in there so often.
35:31Like, and I, as you know, I've always wanted to just play defenses, just like jam the defenses in UFL.
35:37Cause I think defenses tend to go way under owned and kickers, uh, I think more and more like coming about where they should be.
35:44I don't have any strong take like, but both these kickers are coming in around 30% ownership.
35:48I agree with you there. Like kicker at captain certainly in play, but I don't have any great, like these are the
35:55types of lineups you should play kickers in. Like they don't really correlate that strongly, um, with, with other positions.
36:00So yeah, I think, uh, no great takes other than 30% feels about right.
36:04I suspect I'll come in underweight because I think that they're like, based on our projected ownership, kickers are coming in like appropriately owned.
36:11And we have so many players that I think are going to come in under owned that I do suspect I'll be a little bit light on kickers.
36:19Um, but, but tough to argue that they're not like solid place.
36:22Yeah. Yeah. I think, I think I'm right there with you.
36:26Um, defenses, I think is, uh, just generally a bit more of an interesting conversation because of how defense correlates to, uh, other positions.
36:32Um, so Neil, how do you plan? I know you're sort of, whenever I click on a showdown slate and, uh, you know, the game just kicked off.
36:40You're, you're always the guy who's in first place because you're, you're always seem to have some, some defense at captain.
36:46This is a very high total game. Neither of these defenses project particularly well.
36:50I think I've got them both just a hair under six, uh, draft Kings points for the projection.
36:55Uh, so how are you going to handle defenses this week?
36:58I mean, it depends on where our projected ownership ends up, uh, at on these defenses right now.
37:03We don't really have any ownership going, going to the defenses.
37:07Um, I suspect you like usually get like what, like 10% total ownership going to defenses, which I think is really strong.
37:13This DC defense is, is a solid one. And they're really aggressive.
37:16So I think there's more opportunities, more volatility in the projection, um, potential for them to, to make some big plays and score some touchdowns.
37:23Uh, so yeah, I, I think, uh, if they come in 10% or lower, I'm going to love both defenses again.
37:29It's going to be kind of a jam for me.
37:32I will have some at captain. Um, you know, and I like, you can, you can play the defenses, uh, correlate with the, with the running backs.
37:40If you play, play a defense at captain, it makes a lot of sense.
37:44Um, I also use it as a way to get different.
37:47Like I think a lot of people don't want to play quarterback captain and then have an opposing defense in the lineup somewhere.
37:53And I like to do that sometimes because the defense, like there's some slight negative correlation there with, uh, you know, if,
37:59if the defense is, uh, causing interceptions, turnovers, whatever, it's, uh, gonna, gonna hurt the offense.
38:04Um, but there can be situations where it's like quarterback throws an interception and it's negative one point for the quarterback.
38:10The defense brings it back for a touchdown. So the defense is going atomic.
38:14The quarterback then gets the ball right back in a situation where they're more likely to need to pass.
38:19So it's not like that negatively, or, you know, there are ways that it can work out that it's, um, not going
38:25to, you know, horribly, uh, horribly affect the defensive score.
38:28And so, um, or the quarterback score. And so I do like to do some odd things like, like quarterback with the
38:35opposing defense as a way to get a more unique lineup.
38:38Um, but yeah, I, I tend to be overweight on the defenses because I think, uh, you know, there's a lot of
38:44volatility in the UFL and I think they tend to go under owned.
38:48Um, so that is, that is, it's going to be a big part of my plan once again this week, but, uh,
38:54yeah, I'll be curious to see where projected ownership lands, uh, as we get closer to game time.
38:59Yeah. Yeah. And you know, I, on that point, I think I, it makes sense to do that with both quarterbacks, but
39:05I think I really prefer that with Jason being, he's just been a lot more turner prone, a lot more file volatile this year.
39:12Um, and I mean, if DC gets down, they're not going to hesitate to throw 70% of the time that's, and they're going to be throwing deep too.
39:20So, um, definitely like that angle. Um, Neil, I think we've covered just about anything, any other, you know, lineup building tips,
39:26um, kind, kind, sweet words that you want to say to our audience before we get out of here.
39:31Uh, on lineup building, you know, a way to get different.
39:35We always talk about leaving some salary on the table.
39:37Um, but I always like to caution people because people like to do the, like, one V one, like here's a perfect lineup.
39:44And then I won V one to this player.
39:46Who's $5,000 cheaper. And he can outscore the other one.
39:49Just keep in mind, like you can leave 5,000 on the table on showdown.
39:53Keep in mind that that can be used at any position though.
39:57So like if you know, leaving 5,000 on the table, making a one V one swap, make sure you look at all
40:03the other positions and like, could this player reasonably outscore every player up to $5,000 more expensive than them.
40:08You have to kind of check every spot in your lineup to make sure that you really believe that this lineup can be the highest scoring.
40:16Um, it's, I guess it's a little bit different.
40:18It's a little bit less applicable for UFL than NFL because you don't need the highest scoring lineup.
40:23Um, but just, just something to, uh, to think about that that 5,000 or whatever, whatever salary you are leaving off can
40:29be used at any position, not just like the one, the one V one swap, um, that you might make, um, sweet words.
40:36Uh, it has been, uh, beautiful. I have loved this, this UFL season.
40:40Once again, I haven't really, because I have not, uh, have not had a very successful UFL season, but I've enjoyed doing
40:46content with Jake and, and talking with people in the, the discord.
40:49Um, at fantasy points. So, uh, I appreciate all the support you guys have shown us.
40:54Hopefully one of us can take it down this week.
40:57Uh, but yeah, it's been fun working with Jake and Tom as always.
41:00And, uh, and talking with people in discord. Uh, hopefully we can do it again next season.
41:05Yeah. Yeah. It has been, it has been a ton of fun.
41:08I, uh, like I said, at the top of the show, I, I love doing this always a great time.
41:14Love chatting with, uh, with you and Tom pre and pre and post show.
41:18Love doing this, this show with you really enjoy writing the, uh, writing the articles and, uh, just really grateful that the
41:24fantasy points, uh, uh, features my, my UFL content.
41:27I know it's not the, uh, uh, uh, it doesn't get the most clicks, especially compared to like, uh, you know, the
41:33latest Ryan Heath article or, uh, Scott Barrett article.
41:36But, um, yeah, really, really awesome that I get to get to write.
41:39You know, call covering the league, my, my job for, uh, for a period of time.
41:44I, I love football and I'm, I'm really glad there's football in the spring.
41:48And as long as there is football in the spring, I, I plan on, on covering it, uh, to the best, uh, best of my ability.
41:55So this has been a really fun year. Really appreciate everybody for tuning into the championship edition of the fantasy points UFL breakdown.
42:02And we will see you all at the top of the leaderboards.
