NFL Week 2 BEST Kept Secrets For Winning at DFS | Outside The Box

Aaron Jones is a fairly strong play at his salary against the Bears, who allowed a strong game to Chuba Hubbard last week. However, there's uncertainty about the Vikings' run-game emphasis without Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones' involvement in the passing game (he had only two targets last week). The source expects more passing-game work for Jones this week, but the extent of the Vikings' run-game lean versus pass-heavy approach remains an open question. At 20% ownership, he's a solid cash-game play but not an absolute smash.

Baker is interesting in a revenge spot against the Browns. The Browns allowed the second-most fantasy points per drop back to quarterbacks in Week 1 (though this may be more a Jaguars thing). The Buccaneers as a team are one of the best buy-low offenses after Week 1 due to a minus-three turnover margin; aside from turnovers, the offense was pretty exciting. As massive favorites against the Browns, the Buccaneers should run more plays than they did in Week 1 when they finished bottom-six in total plays run.

Baker Mayfield's team-level regression concerns apply to Bucky Irving's outlook; despite Mayfield's turnovers in Week 1, the Buccaneers ran the fewest plays of any team in the NFL, suggesting significant upside potential as offensive volume increases.

Bijan Robinson had the highest target share in a single game by a running back in fantasy data history last week at over 40%, which explains his 34% projected ownership. However, historically against the Panthers' defensive coordinator over six games across three seasons, Robinson has exceeded 15% target share only once and never had more than six targets. While he's gone over 25 DraftKings points in half those games without heavy receiving volume, the source suggests the 10-target, 4-target-for-Drake-London split may be a one-week sample that people are overindexing on, with London potentially seeing more involvement in Week 2.

Bo Nix projects as top-three point-per-dollar value across the industry but faces a tricky spot. The source watched Davis Webb's play-calling look broken on Monday night against the Chiefs, creating hesitation despite industry projections favoring him. However, the Broncos should adjust their offense at home against Jacksonville (vs. Kansas City last week). At 5% projected ownership, Nix is worth considering for potential bounce-back upside, though the Jaguars' solid defense makes it less of a smash compared to if Denver faced a weaker opponent. The source will play some Nix but won't make him a top-five exposure.

Purdy averages over 25 DraftKings points per game over his last five games in 2024; trails only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in fantasy points per opportunity; leads all QBs in fantasy points per drop back. The source views him as clearly one of the best plays on the slate despite 9% ownership, preferring him over Dak Prescott in this spot.

At 6,100 DK salary with 12% projected ownership, Irving is priced way too cheaply for a running back with a three-down bell cow workload in an awesome spot where the Buccaneers are huge favorites against Cleveland; the source notes Irving was drafted at the end of round two in 2025 offseason as an ascending talent after leading all running backs in fantasy points per game in healthy games over his last seven games of his rookie season.

Bucky Irving is a very high-interest play at $6,100 with 12% projected ownership against Cleveland's defense. The source positions Irving as an incredible ownership-adjusted play and a strong alternative to Javante Williams at a similar price point. Irving was being drafted at the end of round two in 2025 offseason drafts as an ascending talent heading into his second season, making his current DFS pricing and low ownership a potential value spot.

In Week 1, Irving posted a career-high 25% target share, ran a route on 58% of the Buccaneers dropbacks (more than Kenny Gainwell), and got everything in the red zone; the source emphasizes that concerns about Irving losing high-value touches to Sean Tucker and Rashad White were answered, as Sean Tucker had to take a pay cut to stay with the team and the regime is not as high on him as a goal-line option.

Despite Baker Mayfield's turnovers and the Buccaneers running the fewest plays of any team in the NFL, Irving still scored 20 DK points in Week 1, suggesting significant upside potential given the team's expected regression and increased offensive volume.

Irving is expected to be pretty involved in the passing game despite Kenny Gainwell's presence; the source was concerned about Gainwell cutting into Irving's passing game involvement, but that doesn't appear to be a significant concern.

Irving's snap distribution in Week 1 was comparable to David Montgomery's, establishing a benchmark for Montgomery's workload quality and volume.

Caleb Williams is a very high-interest play at $6,800 against the Vikings despite tough matchup context. He has five career games with 48+ point totals, averaging 25.7 DraftKings points per game in those contests—second only to Josh Allen league-wide. With two such high-total games on this slate, his rushing upside is compelling; he has the second-highest scramble rate in the NFL when facing the blitz (Vikings are blitz-heavy). His pass catchers remain cheap after failing to cash last week, making him a strong single-stack option in tournaments at low projected ownership (4%).

Wentz at 4,600 is the best cheap QB on the slate and a top-five play overall for tournaments. In three games under Kevin O'Connell where he wasn't playing with a dislocated shoulder and torn labrum, he posted 19.2, 26.2, and 15.3 DK points. The source argues industry projections may be overweighting his injury-plagued 2025 stretch. Against a Bears defense that allowed 39 points to Bryce Young, the stack with Justin Jefferson is extremely easy.

Brown's workload last week was as strong as expected, though his DraftKings points relative to other running backs on the slate were not elite. He carries high value at his price point. However, the source raises a strategic concern: Brown's historical success with Joe Burrow may be partially due to defenses having to respect Burrow's passing ability, not just the run game. With Burrow banged up heading into Week 2, the Bengals may lean on the run more, but this could also mean Houston's defense can focus more on stopping the run, potentially negating the benefit of increased volume. At 6% ownership, the workload appeal is real, but the game environment against Houston's strong defense is concerning.

Christian McCaffrey is a mega-smash tournament play despite 22% ownership. His Week 1 workload was likely suppressed due to the 49ers' non-competitive game against the Dolphins (17-hour flight, blowout scenario). McCaffrey still received all high-value work, leading in targets and routes from the backfield, playing most snaps inside the 20-yard line. On his normal workload, he'd be 50% owned. At 13.5-point favorites against Miami, McCaffrey is an amazing play in tournaments. Additionally, Kalon Black is on the injury report this week, potentially giving McCaffrey even more volume.

Watson is one of the two receivers playing in two-receiver sets for the Packers in Week 1, consolidating the passing game alongside Matthew Golden due to ineffective running back play.

Christian Watson is part of a mini stack with Garrett Wilson that the source finds really fun. The source mentions Watson as an option alongside Wilson in the Packers-Jets game.

Colston Loveland is cheaper at 5K and is the source's favorite Bears pass catcher. He's been leading the team in usage since they changed their offense at the end of last season. The source likes Loveland more than either of the Bears wide receivers in terms of Caleb Williams stacking partners.

Swift is an interesting tournament play at a low price point; after posting top-five expected fantasy points last week and leading the NFL in rushing yards over expectation, the field doesn't want to play him this week, creating value. The Bears offense, led by Ben Johnson, has been top two in yards per carry and EPA per rush since Johnson became play caller, suggesting the rushing attack's success wasn't a fluke.

Swift drew only one target and 21.1% route participation in week one despite posting 20.5 expected fantasy points, raising concerns about passing game involvement. However, the source notes Swift is game script sensitive and averages 17.9 DraftKings points per game in wins since last season, ranking top five among slate-eligible running backs this week. With the Bears as comfortable favorites against the Vikings, the source is not concerned about the lack of passing game involvement in this specific spot, as the game script should favor Swift's workload.

Swift's workload in Week 1 was noticeably lighter than David Montgomery's, serving as a comparative benchmark for Montgomery's superior snap distribution and red-zone opportunity share.

Historically, Dak averages only 20.2 DraftKings points per game in games with at least a 50-point over/under and has gone over 25 DK points in just one of seven games over that span. The source suggests the ceiling may be overestimated by the field despite the Cowboys-Commanders game having the highest total on the slate at 50 points.

Montgomery carries only 6% projected ownership despite posting a better workload than DeAndre Swift in week one, making him an undervalued tournament play. The source highlights Montgomery's workload as comparable to or better than Swift's, positioning him as a strong value pick in DFS tournaments with low ownership.

At 6% projected ownership, Montgomery offers strong DFS value; he had a better workload than DeAndre Swift and nearly matched Bucky Irving's snap distribution, dominated inside the 10-yard line on every running back opportunity, and ran more routes than Woody Marks. He scored three touchdowns last week and ranked among the top running backs in expected fantasy points due to elite touchdown equity. The Texans are incentivized to lean heavily on the run with Nico Collins out. However, the source hesitates slightly due to the depth of quality 6k running back options and the risk that Houston may not reach the red zone frequently.

Henry continues to be a math problem for opposing defenses alongside Lamar Jackson. The combination makes it much easier for Lamar to have big performances even through the air.

Derrick Henry is a mega-smash play at 23% ownership. Since joining the Ravens, he averages over 23 DraftKings fantasy points per game in wins. He posted 19 expected fantasy points in Week 1 (top-seven mark at RB), and has historically dunked on expected fantasy points models for years. The Ravens are big favorites and could lean more on the run with Zay Flowers out, making this a game script-favorable spot where Henry's elite workload and game-script sensitivity align perfectly.

DK Metcalf is a name the source goes back and forth on in terms of the extent to which to play him. The Steelers came out insanely pass heavy in week one (top two in pass rate over expectation), which is not surprising given Mike McCarthy's history and Aaron Rodgers' history with McCarthy. However, the source has two concerns: (1) DK Metcalf has literally never delivered in any of the weeks he's been a strong point per dollar play, which he very much is this week with consolidated targets and a great role; (2) the source wonders if the Steelers will be pass heavy for a second week in a row after the offense didn't work well in week one with them being so absurdly pass heavy. The Steelers had one of the worst offensive performances in terms of efficiency and yards per play in week one, next to the Falcons and Broncos. The source thinks they might decide to go more run heavy, feature 12 personnel and tight ends more, and notes that Jalen Coker is just as interesting as Metcalf but a hundred dollars cheaper.

Drake London is positioned as a potential Week 2 breakout candidate despite the narrative that he's screwed with Cooper Rush at QB. His career splits with Michael Penix are strong at over 20 DraftKings points per game, and the source sees a world where passing volume shifts more to London this week after Bijan Robinson absorbed 10 targets last week. London's splits with Penix suggest he could catch people off guard in Week 2 as the receiving game potentially normalizes.

Drake Maye at 6,100 might be a sneaky play in tournaments despite back-to-back tough matchups against Seattle and now the Steelers. The source trusts the larger sample size of his MVP-caliber play from earlier in the season over recent tough matchups. The Steelers were solid last week but were playing against Cooper Rush, so it's unclear how much can be taken from that performance. Joey Porter Jr. is likely out again. With AJ Brown out, Maye has really cheap pass catchers available.

At $6,100 salary, Drake May is positioned as a sneaky tournament play with upside despite AJ Brown being out. The source notes May was QB2 in fantasy points per game last year, scoring 90% of Josh Allen's fantasy output with a limited receiver core (Stefan Diggs in part-time role, not reaching 60-70% route share in many games). While his splits against top-seven defenses are poor, the cheap pass-catcher pricing around him in tournaments makes him a sharp angle worth considering.

Garrett Wilson is only 6K and has a really strong schematic matchup. The Packers have shifted very cover four heavy with their new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon (who was with the Cardinals and Eagles, both cover four heavy). Wilson is top three in targets per route run against cover four over the last three years behind only Drake London and JSN. The Packers could be a horrific defense that gets targeted every week; they are bottom five in EPA per drop back allowed on plays without Micah Parsons on the field going back to last year and were bottom 10 in pressure rate generated in week one. Geno Smith is the most pressure-sensitive quarterback in the NFL in terms of catchable throw rate and accurate throw rate, so it matters that he's not being pressured. Wilson ranked top five in first read target share in week one and had a top 10 XFP role among wide receivers despite the Jets leading the entirety of week one. The Jets offense used a lot more play action and ran from under center in week one, which are ways to juice passing game efficiency. If the game environment shoots out, Wilson could post a really strong score.

George Pickens is the most obvious bounce back candidate of any wide receiver this week. He lost 51 air yards due to drops in week one, which is more than what happened over the entirety of 2025 for him. He was negative five points below expectation (below his XFP), which is the worst mark he's ever had with the Cowboys. The source expects the bounce back is probably coming, though notes that Pickens is one of the chalkiest guys at the top of the slate at 17% projected ownership.

Jamar Chase is coming in at 16% projected ownership against Houston, which the source found surprising, expecting him to be contrarian on the slate. However, at 7,600 (under 8K), the price point is hard to argue against. The source notes that the big reason for the ownership is the price.

Jalen Coker is just as interesting as DK Metcalf but a hundred dollars cheaper. The source prefers Coker as an alternative to Metcalf in the Steelers offense.

Javante Williams is an amazing play relative to his 22% ownership, which is 12% lower than Bijan Robinson. He was top-six among all players at all positions in expected fantasy points per team play in Week 1, getting all the work out of the backfield. The Cowboys are favored, and Javante averages 18 DraftKings points per game in wins dating back to the start of last year. He's priced way too cheap for his bell-cow role, making him a strong tournament play despite the source's personal talent concerns.

Williams is a low-6K running back tournament play, though the matchup against the Packers is a potential concern; the Packers didn't have much success in this spot last week. However, the Packers' run game and running backs are worse than the Bears' rushing attack, which has been elite under Ben Johnson.

Daniels is intriguing against the Cowboys, who are a top-five quarterback matchup since the start of last season and have allowed the most rushing yards to quarterbacks over that span. The rushing upside for Daniels could be significant in a condensed stack.

Burrow is banged up heading into Week 2, which may influence the Bengals' offensive approach. The source notes that his injury status could affect Chase Brown's fantasy value, as Brown's historical success with a healthy Burrow may be tied to defenses respecting Burrow's passing ability rather than just increased run volume.

Love is a totally fine play with a similar thesis to other top QBs on the slate. The Packers posted the fourth-best pass rate over expectation since Josh Jacobs joined the team, driven by ineffective running back play in Week 1 (Marshawn Lloyd had the worst rush yards over expectation per carry). The stack with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden is super easy.

Justin Herbert's interest hinges entirely on Ladd McConkie's health status. The Chargers' adjusted net yards per attempt dropped from top-five to worst in the NFL in Week 1 with and without McConkie on the field, indicating his impact is critical. The source will only play Herbert if Adam Schefter reports Sunday morning that McConkie will play with no limitations; otherwise, Herbert is off the board.

Jefferson averages close to 20 DraftKings points per game in games with Carson Wentz. Against the Bears defense that just got shredded by Bryce Young and has been one of the worst defenses against the deep ball dating back to last season, Jefferson averages 1.7 deep targets per game (20+ yards downfield), the sixth most of any WR on the slate.

Justin Jefferson is less surprising at the top of the slate because the source wants to play Vikings stacks. Jefferson on the deep ball is really strong against the Bears, which is a matchup the source had highlighted in advanced matchup analysis. If going over on anyone in the top four receivers, the source would go over on Jefferson.

Kalon Black is on the injury report this week, which could further reduce his already-limited role and give Christian McCaffrey even more volume in the 49ers backfield.

In Week 1, Kenny Gainwell ran routes on fewer than 58% of the Buccaneers dropbacks, less than Bucky Irving, indicating Irving is more involved in the passing game than Gainwell despite offseason concerns that Gainwell would cut into Irving's passing-game involvement.

Lamar is a top-five play on the slate at just 5% projected ownership on a slate without Josh Allen to threaten him. He looked healthy in Week 1 and hit 40 rushing yards for only the second time since injuring his hamstring in Week 4 of 2025, which has a massive impact on both rushing and passing efficiency. In 2024, he averaged 26.4 DK points per game with an MVP-level season. Over the last three years in fully healthy games, he averages 26.7 DK points per game and has gone over 29 in 38% of those games. Against the Saints, who created an overtime game script with 160 combined plays in Week 1.

Luther Burden had a 68.4% route participation rate in week one, a career high for him, and maintained 2.4 yards per route run on that higher route share. The source is willing to bet on a Burden bounce back. While the touchdowns weren't there, the usage could have been even better if he hadn't fumbled a screen on the first drive. He also had five first read targets last week, trailing only Khalif Raymond who had six, which is a promising sign.

Lloyd had the worst rush yards over expectation per carry of any running back in Week 1, which contributed to the Packers' high pass rate over expectation.

Golden is one of the two receivers playing in two-receiver sets for the Packers in Week 1, consolidating the passing game alongside Christian Watson due to ineffective running back play.

Collins is out for Week 2, which significantly impacts the Texans' offensive strategy. His absence massively incentivizes Houston to lean heavily on the run game, benefiting running backs like David Montgomery. However, it also raises the risk that the Texans may not reach the red zone as frequently without Collins' deep-threat ability.

Parker Washington is going to be in every single one of the source's Trevor Lawrence lineups and will also have some naked Parker Washington exposure. He's a baller who continues to score fantasy points and is not being projected up around the industry. He has an amazing schematic matchup in two ways: (1) Pat Surtain is expected to shadow Ryan Thomas Jr., and Surtain is one of the few corners worth legitimately adjusting projections for because Parker will stay away from him; (2) the Broncos are very man coverage heavy, and Lawrence has succeeded so much with Parker as a man beater, averaging almost three yards per route run against man, easily leading the team. Lawrence only dropped back three times in the second half on non-screens, so Washington had 19.3 DK fantasy points in basically one half of play with 20 expected fantasy points, a top six mark at the position.

At $5,600 salary with 1% projected ownership against a Broncos defense that showed vulnerability in week one, White offers contrarian value in DFS tournaments. The source notes White is an electric back with the ability to break off long runs, and despite limited NFL sample, has demonstrated this capability in the past. With the Broncos proving beatable after week one, White presents tournament upside at a mid-tier price point.

Sean Tucker should play in Week 2 but the Buccaneers regime is not as high on him as a goal-line option; Tucker had to take a pay cut to even stay with the team this year, suggesting diminished role expectations and reduced red-zone opportunity share.

Hockenson is an interesting double-stack option alongside Carson Wentz and Justin Jefferson against the Bears defense.

Lawrence is one of the source's favorite plays on the slate. Over his last five games, he averages 30.4 DK points per game, easily leading the slate; over his last 17 games, 21.8 DK points per game leads all QBs. He hung 30 DK points on the Broncos in Week 16 last year and is capable of hanging a massive score on this defense. The Broncos play a ton of man coverage, and Lawrence has been 50% more efficient by fantasy points per drop back against man. His rushing role is amazing in expected fantasy points; he gets the rushing role inside the 10-yard line (a Liam Cohen QB thing).

Marks ran fewer routes than David Montgomery in Week 1, indicating a secondary role in the Texans' passing game relative to Montgomery.