Don't Set Your Week 5 NFL DFS Lineup Without Watching This! (Special Guest Scott Barrett!)

Amon-Ra St. Brown has the league's highest target per route run against too-high coverage since 2024; Jared Goff is targeting him in too-high at an elite rate. Arizona's defense gives up 0.8 fantasy points per dropback allowed to opposing quarterbacks, far worse than Drake May's 0.58 in his near-MVP season, making this a prime matchup for St. Brown.

Williams is described as an awesome play with excellent per-route efficiency metrics on a small sample; the source notes these metrics look very good and very promising so far.

Bijan Robinson is mentioned alongside Jameer Gibbs and others as experiencing some bad luck; Cincinnati Bengals not appearing in the red zone as often as last year has impacted production.

Bo Nix is playing poorly and is the main problem for the Broncos offense; he's not seeing open receivers, constantly hits the check-down, and goes through progressions performatively only. His off-target throw rate last year matched Caleb Williams', and charted accuracy numbers remain really bad this year.

One of the source's favorite plays on the slate at $5,400 DFS salary; handles 94% snap share and every touch in the Jets backfield since Breece Hall went down; top five among running backs in XFP per team play; used in all high-value situations at goal line and as pass catcher; clear Jets RB1 while Hall is out; excellent matchup against Browns bottom-seven run defense (EPA per run allowed, fifth-highest rushing success rate allowed, second-highest explosive run rate allowed); if Jets' play volume bounces back from last week's 32 plays to normal levels, Allen will be elite.

Allen is the Jets' clear RB1 while Breece Hall is out. The source identifies him as one of their favorite cheap running backs this week, expecting the field to congregate toward Mike Washington, which makes Allen an attractive contrarian value play in DFS.

Out; Braylon Allen has taken over all backfield touches and snap share in his absence.

Bowers is in play as a tight end option; only a $200 salary difference separates him from Trey McBride, who is expected to be mega chalky due to Patriots defense and Vrabel's scheme. The source personally avoids McBride but views Bowers as a reasonable alternative.

Bowers is significantly underpriced relative to McBride despite projecting better; DraftKings has been soft on tight end pricing all year, and this week may be the worst week for that. Bowers will be around 6-8% ownership when McBride is pushing 30%, creating tournament leverage.

Despite being QB2 in fantasy this season with strong EPA per play and points per drive metrics, Brock Purdy faces a tough matchup against Seattle and Mike McDonald's defense. The source does not see a ceiling outcome coming in this game and is probably not playing him, citing the difficult defensive matchup as the primary concern.

Stroud ranks second among all quarterbacks in catchable air yards per game and has been much better this year than in the past. The source emphasizes that people need to put respect on his name, noting he looks good and has improved significantly.

Chase Brown is a key DFS target if Miami doesn't push back; he ranks fourth in non-red zone XFP per game and had 11 catches last week; he faces a top-five matchup and makes sense in Detroit-Arizona stacked lineups.

Chris Brooks is out for the Packers; the source dismisses his absence as irrelevant given the Packers backfield is completely dead.

Christian McCaffrey faces a worst possible matchup against the Seahawks defense, leading the source to fade him in DFS despite his season-long production.

Christian Watson is finally correctly priced in DFS, suggesting his salary now accurately reflects his expected production.

Efficiency-focused receiver; source notes not to count him out despite Golden seeing more volume; Watson is an 'efficiency freak' but Tucker Craft's emergence complicates the Packers stack clarity.

Has only one game over 35 receiving yards all season; source implies limited upside in Broncos offense under current circumstances; schematic matchup against Chargers does not favor Sutton.

DeAndre Swift is projected as one of the best plays on the slate at $6,200 salary; he's expected to get approximately 90% of the Bears backfield XFP (expected fantasy points). The source emphasizes Swift will project incredibly well once projections are updated.

With Kyle Manungai out, Swift is expected to operate in an uber-bell cow role on a Ben Johnson offense in a top-three matchup against the Packers. The source states Swift will likely receive approximately 30 carries in this game, and the speaker is locking him in as a play unless news changes.

The Packers defense is bottom-five in P-row allowed (points per run allowed), meaning they give up significantly more rushing yards than expected. This weak run defense makes Swift an ideal target in a Ben Johnson-designed run game.

The source prefers DeAndre Swift over Jeremiah Love in DFS, viewing Swift as the superior play in the Cardinals-Lions matchup.

Very cheap pricing on DFS platforms despite the Browns passing offense becoming more viable than previously credited; 40-point over/under is second lowest on the week, limiting ceiling.

Priced at 5,400 and projects as a solid point-per-dollar value. Last week went for 115 yards; the source says 'I think he's okay,' indicating recent production validates the salary.

Drake Maye scored 28.2 DraftKings fantasy points last week and had his first game since the wild card of last year without a turnover-worthy throw. However, recent ups and downs are mostly explained by schedule and turnover variance; his rushing role hasn't changed and scramble rate remains consistent with the past two seasons. The source views him as viable but not a favorite quarterback play.

Emmanuel Wilson had a very strong role last week and should maintain it in Week 5 against the 49ers, who allow the sixth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and are the most extreme run funnel by pass rate over expectation in the NFL. Last week, Wilson was in an every-down bell cow role with a 76% backfield XFP share, ranking top eight among all running backs. However, his ceiling depends on game script: if the Seahawks are leading, he maintains high usage; if trailing, George Helani takes over more snaps and routes. At $5,300, Wilson is an awesome play if the Seahawks control the game, and can be stacked with the Seahawks defense at $2,800.

Amazing schematic matchup this week; Browns continue to play a ton of man coverage, which is favorable for Wilson's skill set.

Wilson faces an amazing schematic matchup against the Browns, who play a ton of man coverage. Wilson sees a 78% efficiency boost against man over the past two seasons. Denzel Ward hasn't shadowed any receiver on more than 50% of their routes this year, so shadow concerns are minimal. The Browns are a fringe top-12 matchup for outside receivers, and Wilson ranks seventh in air yard share among all wide receivers this week. The Browns are bottom three against the deep ball, supporting Wilson as a legit strong play despite rising ownership.

George Kittle is the best pure value tight end on the slate at $5,200 salary. His route share jumped from 51% to 87% last week, and he ranks third in fantasy points per route run behind only JSN and Puka Nakua. Over the last 12 games, he averages 2.8 more fantasy points per game than Justin Jefferson and is the best value on the slate by far on a points-per-dollar basis. The source views him as an insane value play and a huge part of what could be one of the better weeks to play two tight ends.

Jamar Chase is limited in practice the last two days and is questionable to play, though he's trending up; if he misses, it opens up target share for other Bengals receivers.

Jacoby Brissett is part of the Cardinals stack that will see heavy ownership; the source prefers the Raiders side (Kirk Cousins and Brock Bowers) for tournament leverage, as the Cardinals stack is about $200 cheaper in salary and will be chalky.

While Jameson Williams is not great against too-high coverage, Arizona's defense is historically bad at defending it, giving up 0.8 fantasy points per dropback allowed. Arizona also gives up explosive pass plays at the league's highest rate, which aligns with Williams' skill set. He leads the league in drops and dropped air yards (16.6–58.8 fantasy points lost), making him a major regression candidate.

In games with over-under over 50, Goff has historically been money; this Lions-Cardinals matchup qualifies with an over 50 line. Goff has the second-best EPA per dropback against too-high coverage since 2024, and Cardinals play too-high 73% of the time. The Lions-Cardinals game is projected as a mega pass-heavy shootout with both teams exploitable via the pass.

Warren is going to get a full bell cow role this week at a DFS salary of just $6,700, making him an attractive value play with significant volume opportunity.

Going to get a full-blown bell cow role at 6,700 salary; projects as one of the best, maybe the best point-per-dollar running backs on the slate if Rico Dattles sits again. Warren has been playing nearly every snap and is one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL per touch by missed tackles and yards after contact (four yards after contact). Colts allow everything to funnel underneath, and Warren has the highest target share of any Steelers player within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage at 21%, creating additional checkdown upside.

Cleared to play after being limited in practice all week; no injury concerns heading into Week 5.

Jeremiah Love is fine and cleared to play for the Lions in Week 5; he would have gotten into limited practice all week.

Love's backfield XFP share has been volatile, ranging from 46% to 62% to 76% to 50%, with unexplained post-game comments suggesting a possible undisclosed injury. The source views him as a leverage play in DFS rather than a primary option, best used in lineups fading Rossi Brown, Jamison Williams, Sam Laporta, and Jameer Gibbs; he could feast if the game goes under and the Lions offense underperforms in positive game script for Arizona.

Burrow is projecting for very low ownership and is the cheapest he's been to stack in a while; the source likes Burrow stacks at or near the top of quarterback options for the week, especially if Jamar Chase misses, making it the most affordable Burrow stack ever; he faces Miami's embarrassingly bad pass defense, which ranks third-worst in passer rating, dead last in pressure rate, and fifth-worst in fantasy points per dropback.

Taylor is projected to get 30 touches in a game the Colts are favored to win. Taylor averages 12 fantasy points per game more in wins than losses, nearly 30 fantasy points per game in winning efforts. He plays 85% of snaps, ensuring volume regardless of game script. Expected to be RB7-RB8 in ownership, making him very interesting for tournaments with a huge ceiling.

Downs is at his best when the Colts stack the box against Pittsburgh's defense, which is likely given the Colts' offensive limitations without Alec Pierce stretching the field.

Justin Herbert is not playing particularly well for the Chargers; combined with receiver separation issues and injuries to key offensive linemen (Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater), the Chargers offense faces significant challenges against the Broncos' strong pass rush.

Very cheap on DFS platforms; interesting play because he has been the primary target when Deshaun Watson is blitzed, and the Jets rank top three in blitz rate; Browns passing attack is more viable than previously credited.

Allen is questionable for Week 5 after a limited practice this week, creating potential lineup uncertainty for the Colts-Steelers matchup.

Target volume will decrease with Mason Taylor's return to the Jets tight end room this week.

The source prefers to play the game from the Raiders side with Kirk Cousins and Brock Bowers, getting leverage on the Cardinals stack with Trey McFry and Jacoby Brissett, which is about $200 cheaper in salary but will see heavy ownership.

Malik Washington is priced at only 4,600 and projects the best among Miami pass catchers mostly because there's nowhere else to put the target share; he ranks top eight in target share this season but the Dolphins' insanely run-heavy, low-play-volume offense limits his upside despite facing a top-five pass funnel Bengals defense.

The source explicitly states 'it is never Malik Willis week' and declines to play him despite this being a good week to pay down at quarterback; there are better pay-down quarterback options available on the slate.

Returns from injury this week, which will reduce target volume for Kenyon Sadiq in the Jets passing game.

Matthew Golden is described as way too cheap, suggesting he offers value at his current DFS salary.

Strong value in Packers-Bears stack; seeing more volume than Christian Watson; source ranks Packers stack behind Saints and Commanders but still viable for DFS.

Pittman might be headed to IR with a foot or toe injury that has continued to nag him, creating uncertainty for Week 5 DFS lineups.

Not going to play this weekend, which opens up additional opportunity for Roman Wilson in the Colts offense.

Mike Evans is playing through cracked ribs and maintained his normal route share last week, suggesting he should be good to go for Week 5. However, his usage pattern reveals a concerning split: he leads all wide receivers in third-down target share at 46%, but his target share drops to just 13% on non-third-down plays, indicating the Buccaneers are limiting his exposure due to his injury status.

Mike Gesicki is interesting when Tee Higgins misses time; over his last six games when Higgins was out or questionable, Gesicki averaged significant target volume: 9, 10, 8, 12, 9, and 6 targets with corresponding yardage of 30, 68, 73, 86, 91, and 100 yards, showing a lot of targets and yards; however, this trend didn't hold true last year when it was Jamar Chase-dominant games.

If Gentry is out, Washington at 4,200 salary will likely be the highest-owned running back play on the slate, possibly even more owned than Jameer Gibbs; the source projects it will play well and plans to include it.

Mitchell Tensley has been running behind Colby Young and was cut from the roster; he's less preferred than Colby Young on the projections call.

Tinsley was cut from the roster, removing him from consideration in the passing game hierarchy.

Collins has a career-high 18.6 XFP per game and elite per-route efficiency. The source notes that the previous concern with Collins was elite efficiency on an offense with a strong defense that didn't drop back often and had a less accurate quarterback. However, the Texans' defense now sucks, they're dropping back a lot more, CJ Stroud is more accurate than ever (ranking second among all QBs in catchable air yards per game), and Houston has no one else at receiver, making Collins the primary option. The source calls this matchup against Tennessee 'Nico Collins or Bust this week.'

Broncos cornerback placed on injured reserve; was building toward a potential breakout role but injury ends that opportunity for Week 5.

In play for the first time this season; RB13 by XFP per game with career-high target volume last week that may stick; top five matchup on paper against Browns run defense; however, it has been over a full calendar year since he hit 4.0 yards per carry, and mid-range RB1 volume is modest.

Dowdle is questionable to play this week. If he does not play, Jalen Warren will get another bell cow role opportunity.

Leads Broncos team in target share; source calls this 'egregious' and suggests someone 'should be in jail' for this allocation; schematic matchup against Chargers is 'way better' for Harvey than for Waddell or Sutton; better DFS play than Waddell despite Waddell's name recognition.

RJ Harvey leads the Broncos in target share; the schematic matchup is significantly better for Harvey than for Jalen Waddell in the Week 5 Chargers-Broncos game.

Roman Wilson is suggested as a pivot option if Dante Myers is too chalky, offering leverage in DFS lineups.

At 3,700, a much better play than DK Metcalf and one of the source's favorite wide receiver punts on the slate. Had an 85% route share in week two without Michael Pittman, and Pittman is not going to play this weekend. Over the last two weeks, despite being a part-time player, Wilson has only one fewer first read target than Metcalf and only 55 fewer air yards than Metcalf this year. Gets a massive price discount by projected ownership. The source is 'enamored with Wilson as one of the better punt options' and wants to 'ladder bet Roman Wilson' and 'go all in on Roman Wilson as one of the best plays of the slate.' Wilson is the slot receiver in Mike McCarthy's system, which historically finishes as a fantasy WR1 over 50% of the time—a rate matched only by Devontae Adams.

Wilson is Pittsburgh's slot receiver with 91% of yards from the slot and 17 slot targets (Freiermuth 10, no one else more than 3); he's finished as a fantasy WR1 over 50% of the time, separating at an unbelievable rate with 60+ yards and a TD in back-to-back weeks and nearly 4 yards per route run over that span. He averages 2.7 yards per route run against man coverage, a full yard better than anyone else. The Colts play man at a top-7 rate and give up the most yards per game to the slot of any NFL team. After a dip to 38% route share last week (30% snap share), he returned to 85% route share in week 2 when Michael Pittman was out. The source projects him for 2% ownership at $3,700 salary, making him an incredible contrarian play.

Dobbs is clearly dominating targets and production in the receiving room, even before Matt Collins left last week's game. He had about half of the team's volume and production before Hollins left, and has led the team in first free targets in two of three games without A.J. Brown. The source has much interest in Dobbs as the only pass catcher worth playing in this game.

Sam Darnold is positioned as a contrarian low-owned tournament quarterback play despite being overpriced on DraftKings. The source has a gut feeling about him and believes he could throw for 30+ yards and touchdowns in this game specifically because the 49ers offense is strong enough to push Seattle, creating a tight game script. With the second-best game total on the slate and low ownership, Darnold represents tournament value.

Sam LaPorta has increased from 25 routes run per game last year to 36 routes this year, essentially playing a Trey McBride-like role in the Lions offense. This expanded role in a game projected as a mega pass-heavy shootout against Arizona positions him for significant upside.

Tee Higgins' status is uncertain; the Bengals have a bye next week, which makes sense for them to give Higgins a little bit of rest to give him two weeks to get right.

Trey Harris at $4,100 has led the Chargers in usage and should lead in routes with McConkie out, but the source considers him clearly worse than Roman Wilson, Antonio Williams, and Dante Myers as value options at the position on this slate.

McBride is expected to be mega chalky on this slate; the source attributes this to Patriots defensive scheme under Vrabel, who sees a ton of bracket coverage. New England also gives up the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, making McBride a fade despite his talent.

Priced at 4,700 DFS salary; faces Bears defense ranked top-five in single-high looks; Craft has highest yards per route run against single-high coverage (approximately twice as efficient as baseline dating back to start of last season); last week achieved team-high 25% first-read target share and scored touchdown, posting 16.5 fantasy points with potential for bigger day; source identifies Craft as key piece in Packers stack if playing one.

Warren is at his best when the Colts stack the box against Pittsburgh's defense, which is likely given the Colts' offensive limitations without Alec Pierce stretching the field.