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Don't Set Your Week 2 NFL DFS Lineup Without Watching This!

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 18 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 19, 2026
Published
Sat, September 19, 2026
114
Player insights
70
Players mentioned
Topics
Dalton SchultzJalen CokerJavonte WilliamsTrevor LawrenceBijan RobinsonChuba HubbardJoe BurrowParker WashingtonBo NixBrian Thomas Jr.Bryce YoungBucky IrvingChase BrownChris Olave
Player analysis

Player insights

114

Alvin Kamara

PositiveInjury8:08

Alvin Kamara is expected to play in Week 2 after returning to full practice on Friday and clearing the injury report for the entire week, positioning him as available for DFS consideration against the Ravens.

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Baker Mayfield

PositiveMatchup40:24

Baker had some boneheaded turnovers last week but otherwise played well and is back fully healthy; his catchable throw rate was up. The source likes the Buccaneers as a bounce-back offense this week against the Browns defense, which has been one of the worst in football without Myles Garrett.

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Bijan Robinson

PositiveProjection5:05

Robinson posted a 41% target share in Week 1—the highest single-game mark for any running back in fantasy data history dating back to 2021—and projects as one of the highest-owned players on the slate; the source acknowledges this is a fair projection given the volume.

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NegativeMatchup5:40

Against the Panthers, Robinson's target-share ceiling may be limited; the Panthers' defensive coordinator has held opposing running backs to a maximum of 6 targets and only once exceeded a 15% target share over six games dating back to 2023, suggesting Week 1's 41% target share was an outlier. However, Robinson can still exceed 25 DK points on rushing volume alone in half of those matchups.

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PositiveValue5:59

Bijan Robinson is described as 'definitely an awesome play' for DFS in Week 2 against the Panthers, with the source emphasizing he is 'incredible.' The Falcons ran at a negative 19% pass rate under expectation in Week 1, making them the most run-heavy team in football, which supports Robinson's usage and DFS appeal.

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Bo Nix

NegativeProjection6:46

Bo Nix was a catastrophe in week one; despite being one of the best points-per-dollar value plays across the industry and having been a top-10 fantasy quarterback last year, the source is concerned about his performance and questions the value narrative.

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NegativeProjection49:23

The source had picked the Broncos to go to the Super Bowl, but that looks pretty bad after week one after seeing what came out of Bo Nix's performance.

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Brenton Strange

NegativeRole50:29

Brenton Strange is a secondary option to mix into Jaguars DFS stacks alongside Trevor Lawrence and Parker Washington.

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Brian Thomas Jr.

NegativeMatchup50:44

BTJ is expected to get the Pat Surtain shadow, making him the lowest-priority wide receiver in the Jaguars stack; he left week one early with a shoulder injury but is completely fine.

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NegativeUsage51:16

In week one, BTJ ran eight routes and received three targets; he is a lower-priority option in the Jaguars passing game due to the Surtain shadow.

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Bryce Young

NegativeProjection1:56

Young exhibits volatile game logs with some big spiked weeks; last week was one of them in a game where the Panthers were chasing with high volume and scoring, but this week's 43.5 total represents a totally different, lower-scoring environment; the source notes a loaded quarterback slate makes Young less attractive despite his ceiling.

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NegativeMatchup2:18

The source expresses concern about the game environment for Young; with Cooper Rush as the Falcons quarterback (described as the worst in football), Atlanta will run only 45 plays and won't push Carolina, limiting volume and scoring opportunities.

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Bucky Irving

PositiveUsage40:42

Irving got a 25% target share last week and played quite a bit in the passing game, contrary to pre-season concerns that he would be limited by Gainwell in the pass game. This expanded role makes him an interesting play in the Bucs offense.

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PositiveValue43:51

Irving stands out as the best 6K-ish running back play on the slate; he earned a career-high 25% target share in week one, ran more routes than Gainwell, and got all red zone work. The source views him as an ascending talent who was taken in the late second round of redraft leagues entering 2025, with reasonable ownership around 10% making him an undervalued play given team regression potential and the Buccaneers' massive favorite status likely to increase play volume.

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C.J. Stroud

NegativeRole27:21

Stroud has struggled without Nico Collins, and the entire Texans offense runs through Collins; this context frames the fragility of the Texans passing game this week.

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Caleb Douglas

PositiveValue70:45

At $3,700 salary, Douglas is the obvious stacking partner with Malik Willis; he finished week one with a 35% first-read target share and 11.7 expected fantasy points, both ranking top 30 among wide receivers. Priced as WR70, he projects as a top 10 value in the source's models, making him absurdly cheap relative to his role and production.

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Cam Ward

NegativeProjection48:09

Ward has failed to reach 200 passing yards in 10 of his first 18 NFL starts; the source notes this is a depressing stat and compares him unfavorably to a list of other quarterbacks since 2010 with more than 10 games where they haven't reached 200 yards through their first 18 starts: Blaine Gabbert, Justin Fields, Bryce Young, Jimmy Claussen, Tyler Huntley, Jake Locker, Derek Carr, Josh Rosen, and Jalen Hurts.

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Carnell Tate

NegativeValue48:45

The source was avoiding Carnell Tate and pretty much everybody on the Titans offense; the source is X-ing out Titans and Browns as teams to play guys on, noting there are so many better teams to play guys on.

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Carson Wentz

PositiveValue40:20

Wentz is identified as blowing out every other cheap QB option on the slate and is noted as the better play compared to Geno Smith, with the benefit of a better play caller.

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CeeDee Lamb

PositiveValue61:40

CeeDee Lamb is priced at 7,300 DFS salary and is identified as a straightforward good value; he was top 12 among all position players in XFP per team play in Week 1, though the source prefers the Commanders stack relative to projected ownership.

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Chase Brown

PositiveValue22:24

Brown is one of the source's favorite plays on the slate in the Bengals-Texans matchup.

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PositiveValue24:09

Chase Brown is priced at $6,900 with great value; he was the RB1 for the Bengals last week based on expected fantasy points; the source identifies him as the favorite play on the Bengals side and notes he might be slightly worse than Ashton Jintz in terms of technical value based on volume but remains a strong option.

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Chigoziem Okonkwo

NegativeInjury61:04

Chig Okonkwo is out with a hamstring injury for Week 2, consolidating the Washington pass-catching group and opening opportunity for other receivers.

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Chris Godwin

NegativeProjection45:03

The source is concerned about Godwin's long-term viability; he had a negative average separation score in week one per Fantasy Points Data metrics, suggesting he may be on the last legs of his career. The source fully faded him this year due to concerns he might be declining, marking a shift from viewing him as a favorite player historically.

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Chris Olave

NegativeInjury8:58

Chris Olave has a hamstring injury heading into Week 2. Saints beat reporter Nick Underhill indicated it is 'no big deal,' but the source notes that any Olave injury is concerning given his injury history, including missing time in Week 1 with minor injuries. His status should be monitored for DFS purposes.

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PositiveProjection9:33

Averages 21 DraftKings fantasy points per game in Shook starts; Saints are 8-point dogs expected to trail in Week 2, creating volume opportunity in a game script favoring passing.

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Chuba Hubbard

PositiveUsage3:08

Hubbard played all passing-down snaps in Week 1, running 25 routes to Brooks' 5; the source notes the Panthers organization has consistently favored Hubbard (similar to last year when he reclaimed the starting job after Brooks' predecessor was injured), suggesting sustained passing-down volume despite Brooks' draft capital.

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PositiveValue4:03

Hubbard played 69% of snaps with a workload worth 17.6 expected fantasy points; at $5,800 salary with the Panthers favored, he represents strong value; he also has a secondary angle as a passing-down back, having run 25 routes to Jonathan Brooks' 5, providing floor and ceiling.

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PositiveRole5:03

Hubbard ran 25 routes compared to Jonathan Brooks' 5, establishing him as the clear passing-down back; this dual-role usage means he maintains playing time even if Atlanta surprises or Carolina comes out flat, providing both floor and ceiling.

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Cooper Rush

NegativeProjection2:18

The source describes Cooper Rush as the worst quarterback in football, worse than Deshaun Watson and Cam Ward, and notes that with him under center, the Falcons will run only 45 plays and won't push the Panthers, creating a low-volume game environment.

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D'Andre Swift

PositiveProjection20:07

Swift averages nearly 18 DraftKings fantasy points per game in wins since the start of last year, which would rank top five among all running backs on the slate; the source notes the Bears could have a dominant run game rolling over every team, and the Bears offensive line was top seven last week, opening up nearly three yards before contact for Swift.

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PositiveValue20:14

Swift is in consideration for DFS play despite a tough matchup on paper; the source wants to lean into the Chicago Bears run game, noting that Ben Johnson has been in his bag with the run game since the middle of last season, and Swift is projecting for seven to eight percent ownership across the industry.

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Dak Prescott

NegativeProjection62:03

Dak Prescott is priced at 6,400 DFS salary but the source expresses caution about his ceiling in high-total games; he averages only 20.2 DraftKings points per game in games with a 50+ point total, suggesting limited upside despite the favorable game environment.

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NegativeProjection63:17

In games with a 50+ total over/under (big shootouts), Dak averages only 20.2 DraftKings points per game and has gone over 25 DK points just once in seven games since the start of last season; the source prefers playing the Cowboys opponent in these spots rather than Dak himself.

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Dalton Schultz

PositiveRole21:45

Schultz will probably get an elevated role with Nico Collins out due to hamstring injury.

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PositiveMatchup26:24

Schultz faces the Bengals, who have allowed three more DraftKings fantasy points per game to tight ends than any other defense since the start of last year; at $3,200 salary, he's priced too cheaply for a perfect matchup spot to consolidate volume and put up a strong score.

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PositiveMatchup26:26

Dalton Schultz is likely to be one of the most popular tight ends on the slate; the Bengals have been one of the worst defenses against tight ends over the last 10 seasons, allowing three more DraftKings fantasy points per game to the position, making this a favorable matchup.

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NegativeBust26:45

Despite the strong matchup and salary value, Schultz has limited upside and fragile projection; in games without Nico Collins since 2023, he has never scored more than 11.3 DraftKings fantasy points, and over three seasons he has only hit 15 DK points five times, making him a tournament fade despite strong point-per-dollar metrics.

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David Montgomery

PositiveUsage25:00

Montgomery was a fantasy points favorite heading into the season and delivered in week one with three touchdowns and 23 touches; he got every single backfield touch inside the red zone, led the backfield in route share, and ran more routes than Woody Marks; despite snap share being closer, Montgomery is consolidating all high-value touches and presents a contrarian DFS option, particularly with Nico Collins out.

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PositiveRole27:56

Montgomery's role is secure; concerns about Woody Marks stealing work are dismissed by the source's team of analysts as a misunderstanding of the offense.

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Davis Webb

NegativeProjection51:54

Davis Webb had a really bad first game in week one.

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De'Von Achane

PositiveValue72:02

At $6,700 salary, Achane is an interesting bring-back option when stacking the 49ers side against Miami; despite a weak week one result, he captured 95% of backfield expected fantasy points (the most of any week one running back) and leads all running backs over the last three seasons in explosive play rate, meaning any touch can go to the house. The 49ers' run defense gave up the sixth-most yards before contact per attempt last week, creating a favorable matchup.

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Deebo Samuel

NegativeInjury69:09

Going on IR with an ankle injury requiring surgery; will miss time for the 49ers, who are the biggest favorites on the slate with a 29-29.5 implied point total.

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Deshaun Watson

NegativeMatchup40:34

Watson was an absolute catastrophe last week against the Jaguars; the Browns have a 16.5 implied point team total against the Buccaneers (8.5-point favorites) with a 41.5 game total. Despite projecting as QB11 by value, the source avoids Watson due to the poor offensive environment and prefers other cheaper QB options.

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DeVonta Smith

NegativeRole47:06

Smith is mentioned as a stacking option with Jalen Hurts in the Eagles offense, though the source's preference is to pair Hurts with Smith and Dontavian Wicks rather than lean heavily on Hurts alone.

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DK Metcalf

PositiveValue29:28

Metcalf is priced at $5,200, which is too cheap given his Week 1 production of 10 targets, 50% of air yards, and 8 fantasy points; he is expected to draw considerable ownership on the slate.

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PositiveValue29:28

Priced at $5,200 on DraftKings, Metcalf is the top wide receiver value on the slate despite scoring only 8 fantasy points in week one. He received 10 targets and 50% of air yards last week. Pittsburgh posted the second-highest pass rate over expectation in week one, a metric historically sticky with Mike McCarthy's scheme. With no Michael Pittman, Metcalf is expected to get peppered with targets. The source recommends him for cash games but cautions against GPP exposure if ownership reaches moderate-to-high levels (15%+), given his historic production and likelihood to populate optimizer recommendations.

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Drake London

NegativeMatchup5:36

Drake London has a strong schematic coverage shell matchup against a cover three heavy Panthers defense. He averaged over 22 DraftKings fantasy points per game with Michael Penix, though Cooper Rush represents a significant downgrade at quarterback. The source notes volume could shift back to London despite the quarterback change, but ultimately views Bijan Robinson as the primary Falcons play for DFS.

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PositiveMatchup6:36

London has a strong schematic coverage shell matchup against the Panthers and offers leverage as a wide receiver play around 6K salary, providing an alternative to the chalk Bijan Robinson.

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Drake Maye

NegativeProjection28:57

Maye played absolutely terrible in Seattle in Week 1, looking like a rookie; he is coming off a really bad game heading into Week 2 against the Steelers.

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NegativeValue31:21

Priced at $6,100 on DraftKings, Drake May is described as a bit interesting given low projected ownership. He was QB2 in fantasy points per game last year, but the source expresses limited enthusiasm for the Patriots passing game this week with AJ Brown out for at least four weeks. The source's best angle is that May is underowned relative to his historical production, but stops short of a strong endorsement given the depleted receiving corps (Romeo Dobbs, Demario Douglas, Matt Collins, Eli Raritan, Hunter Henry).

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Drew Lock

NegativeProjection66:56

Ranked as a top-five backup quarterback in football; has been okay in spot starts, but the source prefers other receiver plays in his price range on this slate.

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Garrett Wilson

PositiveUsage41:00

Wilson posted a 29% target share last week with a 38% first-read target share; he caught 6 of 9 targets for 79 yards despite running only 21 routes due to Titans offensive struggles. The source notes the Packers should be able to push the pace this week, suggesting improved volume opportunity.

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Geno Smith

PositiveMatchup40:40

Despite the source being a self-described Geno Smith hater, he acknowledges this is a really good spot for Smith when digging into the matchup; the Packers defense without Micah Parsons is a favorable setup. Smith is noted as in play for tournaments given the matchup quality, though his ranking placement is uncertain.

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George Pickens

PositiveValue61:48

George Pickens is priced at 6,300 DFS salary and is identified as a clear bounce-back candidate; he lost 51 air yards to drops in Week 1 alone, more than he lost in the entirety of last season, suggesting positive regression in Week 2 against Washington.

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PositiveValue64:03

George Pickens is the source's favorite play of the week on DraftKings; he is way too cheap given the Commanders secondary's weakness. The Commanders have given up the fifth-most yards per route run on throws of 20+ air yards over the last two seasons, and the source has no respect for Dan Quinn's defense, which has struggled significantly without Micah Parsons.

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Ja'Marr Chase

PositiveValue22:00

Chase is going to be like a quarter of the ownership he was pushing for in most contests last week; at low ownership, Chase is enticing alongside Joe Burrow.

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PositiveMatchup23:43

Chase is relatively cheap and shreds single-high coverages; Houston led the NFL in single-high usage in week one, making this an ideal matchup for Chase's skill set; the source wants exposure to the Bengals stack despite Burrow not being a favorite quarterback play.

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Jacoby Brissett

NegativeProjection64:58

Jacoby Brissett was one of the players the source got very wrong last week; the source did not write him up and did not think the Cardinals had much of a chance to beat the Chargers, but the Cardinals proved them wrong. However, this week against Seattle is a much more difficult defensive matchup.

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Jadarian Price

PositiveBreakout65:17

Jadarian Price looked very good last week and the source would like to see him get more playing time; he is the primary Seahawks player of interest in a matchup where the source is otherwise not super interested in the team due to better value elsewhere.

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PositiveUsage66:17

Looked very good in Week 1; the source would have GPP exposure to him if the Seahawks lean on the run game to hide Drew Locke, though projects only 7-8% allocation in a 150-player set given the depth of running back value elsewhere on the slate.

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Jake Tonges

NegativeInjury69:22

Placed on season-ending IR after tearing his MCL in Australia; will miss the entire season for the 49ers.

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Jalen Coker

PositiveInjury0:52

Coker is off the injury report and completely fine despite being in a walking boot earlier in the week; the source identifies him as one of the better value plays on the slate.

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PositiveValue3:36

Coker is the best value among Carolina pass catchers; he has outscored Tett McMillan over their last 10 games together and sees a 70% boost to his yards per route run against single high coverage, which Atlanta runs at a top-three rate dating back to last year.

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PositiveValue4:23

Coker was one of the best DFS plays on DraftKings in Week 1 and remains significantly underpriced relative to teammate Tett McMillan; the source plans to continue recommending Coker as a strong value until their salaries converge.

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PositiveValue60:06

The source identifies Jalen Coker as a better play than QJ in the Chargers passing game for Week 2 DFS, even accounting for potential Ladd absence.

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Jalen Hurts

PositiveProjection46:21

Hurts is capable of dropping a 30-point fantasy performance in the Eagles-Titans matchup, per the source's assessment of his upside.

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NegativeProjection46:29

Hurts is certainly capable of dropping a 30-burger, but the source is not going to get to a ton of Hurts in this spot; when stacking the Eagles, the preference is to pair Hurts with Devontae Smith and Dontavian Wicks rather than relying heavily on Hurts himself.

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Jalen McMillan

PositiveInjury45:03

McMillan should return in week two after a knee injury suffered in August; he was practicing fully and appeared legitimately close to playing in week one, suggesting he will be available and integrated into the offense.

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Javonte Williams

PositiveValue20:40

Williams is going to draw considerable ownership at $6,400 salary; the source wrote it up the same way, noting the Bears offensive line was top seven last week and opened up nearly three yards before contact, and Williams is projecting for four percent ownership.

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PositiveMatchup62:01

Javante Williams is identified as a solid bring-back option from the Dallas side in the Commanders-Cowboys game due to the excellent game environment and high-scoring potential.

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PositiveValue63:56

Javante Williams is priced at $6,400 and represents one of the clearest best value running back plays early in the season; the source identifies him as probably the top cash running back for the week.

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PositiveUsage63:56

Javante Williams posted 20.5 expected fantasy points last week, played every snap inside the 10-yard line, and got every goal line carry; with backup Malik Davis injured and only Amari Di Mercado (acquired from Chiefs practice squad) as the RB2, Williams has an absolutely elite workload.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

PositiveProjection66:56

Described as 'obviously incredible'; the source views him as a strong receiver play on the slate, though notes there are better receiver plays in Drew Locke's price range.

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Jayden Daniels

PositiveMatchup61:19

Jaden Daniels is priced at just 6,300 DFS salary and is rated by industry projections anywhere from best play on the slate to top three; he faces a Dallas defense that has allowed the fifth most passing yards per game since 2025 and the most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks dating back to last season, creating a slate-best game environment.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveValue52:30

Jalen Waddle is too cheap on the slate; the source expects a bounce-back performance very soon, possibly this week.

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Joe Burrow

PositiveValue22:00

Burrow is probably going to be two or three percent owned, maybe a little bit more in some single entry contests; at low ownership, Burrow is enticing despite a tough matchup against Houston and not fully healthy status (Q tag after a tough hit last week). The source notes that Joe Burrow should never be two or three percent owned and is worth getting overweight in MME contests.

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NegativeInjury22:18

Burrow is not fully healthy; he got a Q tag after a tough hit on a scramble last week, though he did say he'll play in this game against Houston.

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PositiveValue23:18

At two to three percent ownership, Burrow presents contrarian value for DFS players, particularly in multi-entry formats; the source notes he's not a favorite stack but becomes interesting when paired with Jamar Chase and T Higgins, both relatively cheap, against Houston's single-high coverage scheme that Chase shreds; the source observes Burrow historically performs well when underowned.

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Jonathon Brooks

NegativeUsage3:14

Brooks ran only 5 routes in Week 1 compared to Chuba Hubbard's 25 routes, indicating minimal passing-down involvement early in his rookie season despite being drafted as a lead back.

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NegativeRole5:14

Brooks ran only 5 routes compared to Chuba Hubbard's 25, indicating limited passing-down involvement and a secondary role in the Panthers offense.

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Juwan Johnson

PositiveValue9:19

Juwan Johnson is identified as a potential top-three value play at his position for DFS in Week 2 if Chris Olave misses time with his hamstring injury, providing tournament leverage.

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PositiveValue10:01

Priced at tight end 12 despite finishing Week 2 with the fourth-most expected fantasy points of any tight end; source identifies him as a top-10 value in their projection model, noting this mirrors last year's weekly value identification.

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Lamar Jackson

PositiveProjection12:40

Identified as an excellent, excellent tournament play despite being the most expensive QB on the slate; source notes this upside has gone a little under-discussed.

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Malik Willis

PositiveValue69:19

At $5,200 salary, Willis is a contrarian DFS play despite Miami's sub-16 implied team total; the source likes him because he has incredible rushing upside (639 rushing yards with one score in week one) and on a fantasy points per drop-back basis ranks among the NFL's best quarterbacks. In a negative game environment where Miami gets down early against San Francisco's passing offense, Willis will be forced to drop back frequently, maximizing his per-play efficiency.

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NegativeProjection69:59

Priced at $5,200 for Week 2; did not look particularly great in Week 1, raising concerns he could be a Justin Fields-type player. However, the source still banks on Willis having more upside and better talent than Fields, citing his rushing ability as a positive.

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Mark Andrews

PositiveProjection11:10

Likely to receive the biggest projection boost around the industry due to Zay Flowers being listed as doubtful/unlikely to play. Has a really strong schematic matchup against the Saints, who play a ton of single-high coverage; Andrews is about 150% more efficient by yards per route run when facing single-high dating back to the start of 2025. Since the start of last season, he has doubled the end-zone targets of any other Ravens player. After Flowers left last week's game, Andrews had a 33% target share and 70% route share (higher than all but two games last year), suggesting he may be healthier than in past years. Priced at 4,400.

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PositiveValue27:05

Among the two chalkier tight ends on the slate, Andrews is clearly preferred over Schultz, primarily because of his superior upside profile compared to Schultz's limited ceiling.

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Michael Pittman

NegativeInjury29:06

Pittman will miss Week 2 with a foot injury, possibly the same undisclosed injury he was dealing with in training camp.

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Nico Collins

NegativeInjury21:45

Collins is going to miss the Bengals-Texans game with a hamstring injury, leaving the Texans with Kayshaun Booty as their top wide receiver along with Xavier Hutchinson.

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NegativeInjury25:25

Nico Collins is out for week two; without him, the Texans have historically gone run-heavier, with a negative 2.4 percent pass rate over expectation in two games last year without Collins versus positive pass rate with him in the lineup; this absence creates uncertainty about the Texans offense's overall function but supports leaning into David Montgomery as a contrarian option.

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Parker Washington

PositiveValue49:15

Washington is still too cheap in the Jags-Broncos matchup; the source thinks the Jags are pretty underrated in this spot despite the team total not being great, which may keep ownership off these players.

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PositiveMatchup50:25

Parker Washington has a fantastic schematic matchup against Denver; the source is stacking him with Trevor Lawrence in DFS lineups.

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NegativeUsage51:16

In week one, Parker Washington ran eight routes and received four targets; he is in consideration as a secondary stack option with Trevor Lawrence.

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Rashod Bateman

NegativeValue12:27

Priced at the same 4,400 as Mark Andrews; source is interested to see where projections come in around the industry but would probably prefer Andrews if picking one of the two Ravens pass catchers in this game.

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Rhamondre Stevenson

PositiveValue32:22

Priced at $5,700 on DraftKings, Stevenson is described as underrated and the best running back play under $6,000. He averages 16.1 DraftKings points per game in wins dating back to the start of last season, which would rank seventh-best on the slate, yet he is priced as RB18. He was in a full every-down bell cow workload last week with Trevion Henderson out. The five-and-a-half-point spread favors volume-based production.

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RJ Harvey

NegativeInjury52:07

RJ Harvey picked up a hamstring injury and is questionable going into week two.

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Saquon Barkley

PositiveValue46:56

Barkley is very reasonably priced at only $7,000 with only about 10% projected ownership; he has averaged 20.5 DraftKings fantasy points per game in his wins since joining the Eagles and scored at least 36 DK points in 24% of those games; in this spot as a seven-point favorite, the Eagles would be expected to lean on Barkley, making him the clear favorite play.

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Sean Tucker

NegativeRole40:42

Tucker's role around the goal line is uncertain; the source notes they will see if he actually plays in that situation, suggesting his red-zone usage is still being evaluated.

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NegativeRole44:04

The source is not concerned about Tucker's role threat to Irving; Tucker had to take a pay cut to stay with the team, and the regime did not appear high on him, suggesting limited opportunity and Irving as the clear lead back.

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Stefon Diggs

PositiveValue61:42

Stefan Diggs is priced at 5,300 DFS salary and is part of a straightforward double stack with Jaden Daniels in the Commanders offense; with Chig Okonkwo out, usage should be condensed between Diggs and Terry McLaurin, creating a reasonably priced stack with significant upside.

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Tank Bigsby

NegativeUsage51:00

Tank Bigsby looked incredible in week one with tons of missed tackles forced according to fantasy points data; the Jaguars backfield remains unclear due to the Browns' lack of competitiveness in week one.

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Terry McLaurin

PositiveValue61:42

Terry McLaurin is priced at 5,200 DFS salary and is part of a straightforward double stack with Jaden Daniels in the Commanders offense; with Chig Okonkwo out, usage should be condensed between McLaurin and Stefan Diggs, creating a reasonably priced stack with significant upside.

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Travis Etienne

NegativeBust8:24

The source fully faded Travis Etienne in DFS for the entire season and is 'not even considering him' for Week 2, indicating a strong negative stance on his DFS value despite his role with the Jaguars.

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TreVeyon Henderson

PositiveInjury29:08

Henderson is off the injury report and will play in Week 2 after Ramondi Stevenson received the bell cow workload in Week 1 against Seattle.

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Trevor Lawrence

PositiveValue49:15

Lawrence is still too cheap in the Jags-Broncos matchup; the source thinks the Jags are pretty underrated in this spot and expects Lawrence could catch a little steam, though the argument against him is that they basically never want to play a quarterback on the road.

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PositiveProjection49:41

Over his last eight games, Lawrence averaged 27 expected fantasy points per game (three more than the next closest quarterback) and 26 actual fantasy points per game; he scored 31 DraftKings points against Denver on the road in week 16 last year, confirming this season's version is the same high-performing player.

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PositiveMatchup50:07

Broncos run top-three rates of man coverage dating back to 2025; Lawrence has crushed man coverage over that same span with a 50% increase to fantasy points per drop back and 24% boost to yards per attempt against man coverage.

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PositiveValue50:56

At sub-5% ownership in tournaments, Lawrence represents elite value as a 1–2% GPP play despite being buried in rankings; the source plans to write him up as a legitimate MVP candidate.

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Trey McBride

PositiveValue67:31

Averages over 22 DraftKings points per game with Jacoby Brissett over the last two years, which would rank second-best among all wide receivers on this slate; priced as a tight end but would only be priced as WR7 if valued as a receiver, making him a value despite the higher price. Strong schematic matchup against Seattle's zone-heavy coverage. Source recommends mini-stacking him with JSN to access lesser-owned running back value.

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PositiveUsage68:37

Consistently receives 26% of targets regardless of opponent or day of week; a reliable target-share anchor for DFS construction.

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Woody Marks

NegativeRole25:44

Woody Marks ran fewer routes than David Montgomery in week one and is losing the high-value touch battle; despite snap share being closer heading into the season, Montgomery is consolidating all the red zone touches and route share, suggesting Marks' role is secondary.

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PositiveRole27:56

Concerns about Marks stealing work from David Montgomery are unfounded; the source's team of analysts is not concerned about Marks' fantasy impact, dismissing worries about his role as a misunderstanding of the offense.

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Zay Flowers

NegativeInjury7:48

Zay Flowers is doubtful for Week 2 due to a recurrence of his hamstring injury sustained in the middle of Week 1. The source notes he 'would have gone absolutely nuclear, could have pushed for 200 yards' had he remained healthy, indicating significant lost upside for DFS.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

965
0:00The best time of the week is back. Week 2 Cashing Points, we are back.
0:0513 game slate, we got a full slate here for everybody.
0:08I'm going to be breaking down each game, all the best plays, stacks, everything you need to know to dominate your Week 2 DFS lineups.
0:16Of course, I am joined by Jake Tribby and Ryan Heath, two of our sharpest analysts here at Fantasy Points.
0:22To break down the entire slate, I'm Graham. We are so excited that football is back and we actually have real data, actual usage.
0:29We're not flying by the seat of our pants like we are sometimes into Week 1.
0:34It feels good, man. It feels good to have football back.
0:37Let's get started here, guys. We got a big show, like I just said.
0:4213 game slate, really, really fun one. Loaded quarterback slate.
0:45Really like this quarterback slate. We'll get started with the Panthers and the Falcons.
0:49Panthers are 2.5 point favorites. This total is 43.5.
0:52The only real injury note I have in this game here, guys, is that Jalen Coker is fine.
0:57He's off the injury report. I saw a tweet from one of the Panthers beat reporters earlier in the week that said
1:04Coker is in a walking boot, but he is, like I said, he's completely fine.
1:08One of the better value plays on this slate, Jake.
1:11The Panthers are interesting because you and I have been talking about this quite a bit.
1:16Like Bryce Young is just like so yin and yang.
1:19He's got some big spiked weeks in his game logs.
1:22Last week was one of them, but it was a game where obviously the Panthers were chasing quite a bit.
1:29Just a ton of plays, ton of volume, obviously a ton of scoring in that game.
1:33This is just a totally different scoring environment. The total, like I said, 43.5.
1:38It'll be Cooper Rush under center again for the Falcons.
1:41And I guess my concern here, Jake, for this game environment is just that Cooper Rush is the worst quarterback in football.
1:47He's worse than Deshaun Watson. He's worse than Cam Ward.
1:51And the Falcons just run 45 plays and don't really push the Panthers in this spot.
1:55But man, it's a pretty nice little outlook for Carolina.
1:58Where are you at on the team and the best plays on Carolina?
2:02Yeah, this is a pretty interesting spot for Carolina.
2:05You know, I wouldn't want to blame you if you did want to play Bryce Young and GPPs.
2:11I mean, he scored at least 26 DK points in five of his last 20 regular season games.
2:16And as you mentioned, Graham, you know, Jalen Coker, the best value among Carolina pass catchers.
2:21He's actually outscored Tett McMillan over their last 10 games together.
2:24Pretty good schematic matchup as well. Sees a 70% boost to his yards per outrun against single high, which Atlanta's run at
2:31a top three rate dating back to last year.
2:34I am pretty concerned about the game environment. And, you know, Graham, you already noted this is a loaded quarterback slate.
2:40So I'm not particularly eager to play Bryce Young.
2:43But I do think a guy who you can make a pretty compelling argument for, and I know you did, Graham, in
2:50slate breakdown, Chuba Hubbard, who played 69% of the snaps.
2:53And his workload was worth 17.6 expected fantasy points.
2:56That's pretty great usage for a guy who's 5,800, particularly with the Carolina Panthers favored in this game.
3:01I really like Hubbard plus the Panthers defense. And, you know, another nice angle here with Hubbard is that, you know, if
3:08Atlanta surprises or if Carolina comes out, comes out a little flat, he's still going to play on passing downs.
3:14He ran five times more routes than Jonathan Brooks out routed him 25 to five, a bit better of a play on fan duel is Hubbard.
3:22But, you know, still a very solid spot to play.
3:25I'm sort of across the board in DFS this week.
3:28Yeah, I like it quite a bit. I like it with Panthers defense.
3:32Very cheap on draft Kings. I'll be honest, I always have a blind spot to Chuba Hubbard.
3:37I've just always thought he's kind of mids. But, man, the Panthers love him.
3:41And I just keep going back to, you know, last year when Rico Dowdle was just running super hot.
3:47Chuba Hubbard got hurt, came back, and then, you know, Dave Kanals just gave him the starting job once again.
3:53And it seems similar to this year. We'll see if Jonathan Brooks was just getting ramped up.
3:58You know, quite possible that, you know, he was just playing in his first game.
4:03But that was the biggest surprise to me, Jake, as well, is just, you know, Hubbard basically played all the passing down snaps.
4:10That's kind of what I was figuring this year, that Brooks would cut into Hubbard quite a bit on passing down snaps.
4:17And I'm looking very wrong. Speaking of not being very wrong, Ryan, you were all over Jalen Coker last week, man.
4:23He was one of the best plays on draft Kings last week.
4:27Coker's in a great spot, like Jake was just saying.
4:30He's still way too cheap. Until he and Tett McMillan get closer in price, we're just going to keep writing Coker up as one of the better values.
4:38Let's throw it over to you for the Falcons, Ryan.
4:41Bijan Robinson is 8,200. He just had basically a wide receiver workload last week.
4:46Just got a ridiculous target share. I said it off the top.
4:49I mean, Cooper Rush is just, he's really terrible.
4:52He can't push the ball down the field. And I think this is just a similar spot where if Atlanta wants to
4:59try and win the game, they're going to load up Bijan with as much work as he can take.
5:05Yeah, Graham, it was a 41% target share for Bijan Robinson last week.
5:09That is the highest single game mark of any running back in fantasy points data history dating back to 2021.
5:15That's just absurd. And he very rightfully projects extremely well.
5:18He projects to be one of the highest owned players on the slate.
5:22And that's just honestly fair enough. The Panthers are the easiest rushing matchup for opposing running backs dating back to the start of last season.
5:29I understand why everyone wants to play him. I understand why he projects well.
5:34I do think he's a good play. But if we want to poke holes in it, just because that's kind of what
5:40you try to do for the chalkiest running back on the slate.
5:44The whole I would poke is his projection and his expectation is probably very loaded by that target share that he just saw.
5:51Against the Panthers, who have had the same defensive coordinator over this entire span dating back to 2023.
5:57So six games. He's never gone over six targets against the Panthers.
6:00Only gone over a 15% target share once. So that would be much, much lower if the Panthers did want to try
6:07to take the kind of route of just limiting him as much as possible.
6:11Of course, he still went over 25 DK in half of those games.
6:15He can easily get it done on the ground like this isn't to say that he's a bad player or anything.
6:22But if you were trying to talk yourself out of it or going underweight in tournaments, I think that's probably the angle that I would take.
6:30I don't need know that you need to get leverage off of him just because there are so many good wide receiver
6:36plays that are about 6K this week. But Drake London would kind of work in that sense.
6:41He has a strong schematic coverage shell matchup against a cover three heavy Panthers.
6:46And we did see Drake London average over 22 DraftKings fantasy points per game with Michael Penix.
6:51Clearly, Cooper Rush is a big downgrade, but I don't think it's totally impossible that we see the volume shift back to a Drake London.
6:59And ultimately, I think it's probably just Bijan or nothing if you're playing the Falcons.
7:03But just thought that was kind of worth mentioning.
7:06Yeah, I wrote up a Drake London blurb for slate breakdown, but I pulled it once we knew it would be Cooper Rush.
7:13I mean, the Falcons, it was a pathetic offense last week.
7:16They had a negative 19% pass rate under expectation.
7:19By far the most run heavy team in football last week.
7:22That's probably going to come up some Panthers are, you know, they got absolutely smoked last week.
7:28London is awesome, but I'm kind of with you.
7:30I don't know if I can necessarily get there.
7:33Bijan, though, is is definitely an awesome play just because he is incredible.
7:37Let's move on to a better game here, guys.
7:40Saints and the Ravens. Ravens are eight and a half point favorites.
7:43The total is forty seven and a half. Some big injury news on the Ravens side.
7:48Zay Flowers is doubtful. He had a recurrence of his hamstring injury in the middle of the game last week.
7:54He would have gone absolutely nuclear, could have pushed for 200 yards in that game.
7:59Looked incredible, but unfortunately he is going to miss this game as will Jacoby Lane, the rookie receiver.
8:05He is out with a wrist injury. He is on IR.
8:08This is just a very, very skinny Ravens pass catching group going into this week.
8:12On the Saints side, it looks like Alvin Kamara should play.
8:16He got back to full practice last Friday and he's been off the injury report all week.
8:21Just another player to kind of cuck Travis Etienne.
8:24Jake, obviously we're talking DFS, but I fully faded Travis Etienne this year.
8:28I'm going to keep fully fading Travis Etienne at DFS, just not even considering him.
8:32However, Tyler Shook in this passing game is awesome.
8:35The big note is Chris Olave. We'll see what's going on.
8:38Nick Underhill, Saints beat reporter, who's awesome, was saying, hey, basically this hamstring injury is no big deal.
8:44But anytime Olave picks up a small injury, it is kind of a big deal just given his history.
8:50He obviously missed a little bit of time in the first game with some minor injuries as well.
8:55But the main thing, though, is Tyler Shook is too cheap.
8:59And if Olave does happen to miss, Devon Vele and Juwan Johnson will pop as probably some of the better value plays,
9:05maybe the top three value plays at their positions, Jake.
9:08Yeah, absolutely. I mean, Shook led all quarterbacks in expected fantasy points last week.
9:13By the way, we have expected fantasy points for quarterbacks in Data Suite 2.0.
9:17It's awesome. Definitely check that out. Threw for 410 yards, three touchdowns on 63 dropbacks.
9:21And I feel like it's easy to look at those numbers and say, that's ridiculous.
9:26That won't repeat this week. And it won't. But it's also nothing new for head coach Kellen Moore, who's ranked top four
9:33in plays per game nearly every season. He's called plays.
9:36Plus, you know, Saints are eight point dogs here.
9:39They're expected to trail again in week two. And the nice thing about stacking Shook is we know exactly where the volume is going.
9:46Chris Olave averages 21 DraftKings fantasy points per game in Shook starts.
9:50Devon Vele had a monster game last week, and he also sees a 27% boost to his targets per outrun against two
9:56high shells, which Ravens head coach Jesse Minter runs at a top five rate.
10:01And then, you know, Jawan Johnson at just 3,900 feels like every week last year we were noting Jawan Johnson as a value.
10:08And this year doesn't appear to be any different.
10:10Finish the week with the fourth most expected fantasy points of any tight end.
10:15And despite that, he's prices the tight end 12 this week.
10:18He's a top 10 value in our projection. So a lot of different ways you can play the Saints side of this game.
10:25Ravens side is also pretty interesting, but I will let Ryan take that.
10:29Yeah. The first thing I want to talk about with the Ravens before we get into the passing game is just Derek Henry.
10:36I think he's one of the best running back plays on the slate.
10:40He's 7,200 showing around 20% ownership for us right now.
10:43Well behind John Robinson. I think he's a straight up better play than Bijan.
10:47This guy averages 23.4 DraftKings fantasy points per game in wins since joining the Ravens.
10:52Of course, they are big favorites in this game.
10:55Had a really nice workload last week. Exactly what we were kind of hoping for coming into the season.
11:0019 expected fantasy points. Henry, of course, one of the biggest over-performers of his expected fantasy points.
11:06Season after season, as long as the XFP model at fantasy points has existed.
11:10So I feel very good about his odds of doing it once again and completely smashing.
11:15So yeah, Derek Henry, obvious, very good play. I think what's a little less obvious is kind of how to play the
11:21Ravens passing game with Zay Flowers listed as doubtful, unlikely to play.
11:25Mark Andrews, I think, is probably going to get the biggest projection boost around the industry.
11:30He could end up being one of the more popular tight ends.
11:34But I do think that's correct. He has a really strong schematic matchup against the Saints.
11:39They play a ton of single high. Andrews about 150% more efficient by yards per hour run when facing single high dating back to the start of 2025.
11:47And you get really good red zone and touchdown equity with Mark Andrews.
11:51He, since the start of last season, doubled the end zone targets of any other player on the Ravens.
11:57In addition to Flowers going down, they also just lost Jacoby Lane to IR.
12:01He was the only other Raven to be targeted in the end zone last week.
12:06So you just get a nice touchdown equity angle with Andrews.
12:09He had a 33% target share after Flowers left last week's game.
12:1370% route share was higher than in all but two games last year.
12:17So perhaps he's healthier than we've seen him over the past couple of years here at the beginning of this season.
12:23So I really do think Andrews at 4,400 is a pretty good option.
12:27Rashad Bateman is the same price as him. I'm kind of interested to see where projections come in on him around the industry.
12:34I think I'm probably going to prefer Andrews if I'm picking one of those two pieces in this game.
12:40But maybe the bigger point to me just for GPPs is I think Lamar Jackson is an excellent, excellent tournament play.
12:46He's expensive, of course, the most expensive QB on the slate.
12:50But I think it's gone a little under discussed.
12:52Just how big of a deal it is that he looks healthy now.
12:56He just hit 40 rushing yards for the second time since injuring his hamstring in week four of last year.
13:03And the last time he was fully healthy, he had an MVP level season in 2024.
13:07He's at 26.7 DraftKings fantasy points per game in healthy games since the start of 2024.
13:12Has gone over 29, like 38% of the time.
13:15I think he's a really, really strong tournament play.
13:18I would be thinking about like a, not literally, but playing lineups either through Henry or through Lamar, I think is kind
13:24of always going to be a check I'm having for myself as I build this week.
13:29Yeah, Jake noted at the top of the show, this is a great quarterback slate, especially in kind of like the value range.
13:36I think that's going to kind of push the ownership down on Lamar.
13:40And I agree with you. I wrote him up for slate breakdown, basically saying the same thing.
13:46Like there's a chance here the Ravens just lean on Lamar, lean on Derrick Henry quite a bit, maybe go a little
13:52more run heavy in this spot since the receiver room is in a terrible spot.
13:57Now that they're missing flowers, missing lane, they're going to have to rely on Rashad freaking Bateman as their number one wide receiver.
14:04Just to follow up on Derrick Henry, I'm with you.
14:07I think I prefer him to Bijan as well.
14:10I was thinking about this earlier. I think I might just rank him as the best running back play on the slate for slate breakdown.
14:17The Saints were obviously just, you know, destroyed on the ground last week, gave up 5.3 yards per carry.
14:23And the third most rushing yards over expectation per carry, according to Fantasy Points data.
14:28He's just an awesome play. So Ryan, we're lockstep on the Ravens there.
14:32This is a pretty fun game here, guys. You know, Lamar and the Ravens, really good implied team total.
14:37And obviously the Saints can push with anybody, especially since they are so fast and so fast paced.
14:43Another great game, Vikings and the Bears. The Bears are five and a half point favorites.
14:48This total is 48 and a half. We're going to get Carson Wentz under center for the Vikings.
14:53Tyler Murray has been ruled out. On the Bears side, only real injury note I have is that Romo Dunze is not on the injury report right now.
15:02He came into week one with a calf injury.
15:05It seems like he's going to play a lot more.
15:08Last week, obviously, Chicago got out to the big lead.
15:11They kind of just rested Odunze. He ran just a 55% route share.
15:15This is a player who was pushing 80% well into early last year.
15:1980% route participation rate. So we're fully expecting Odunze to be back close to a full-time role.
15:24I know our guy Chris Wecht is projecting a career high in routes for Luther Burden.
15:29Really fun game, Jake. I'll throw it over to you for your thoughts on the Vikings.
15:34Yeah. I mean, Carson Wentz just 4,600. And if you exclude the three games last year where he was playing through a
15:40torn labrum, he scored 23, 15, and 19 fantasy points in his fully healthy games under Kevin O'Connell.
15:46We've seen every quarterback except J.J. McCarthy have fantasy success under Kevin O'Connell.
15:50And at 4,600, Wentz is just way too cheap.
15:53I also think the stack is pretty straightforward here.
15:55Justin Jefferson at 7,800 averages 19.5 DraftKings fantasy points per game in his games with Wentz across his career.
16:01And then another guy who's pretty interesting to me.
16:04I want to start every stack with Jefferson. I think you can work in Jordan Addison.
16:09But T.J. Hawkinson also stands out a bit. He averages 10.4 fantasy points per game and 11.3 expected fantasy points per game in his games with Carson Wentz.
16:17Those are both top 10 numbers among tight ends dating back to 2024.
16:21Hawkinson, to me, though, is kind of more of a middling play in a vacuum.
16:26I think when you add him to the double stack, though, that's where I get a little bit more excited about him.
16:33And then, of course, the other big value on the Vikings side is Aaron Jones.
16:37Jordan Mason is on IR. And Aaron Jones had a 63% snap share, 25% target share.
16:42And 17.6 expected fantasy points in his lone game last season that Jordan Mason missed.
16:47Aaron Jones is in elite value this week. Top three, top four at the running back position.
16:52Definitely in cash consideration. So a lot of solid values here on the Vikings side.
16:56I'm also really excited about the Bears side, particularly Caleb Williams.
17:00But Ryan, I'm curious what you think there. Yeah, I'm very excited about Caleb as well.
17:05I think the before I say all the amazing things and feelings I have about Caleb Williams, I guess I would just
17:11say that maybe the only reason that he's not my favorite quarterback play on the slate or what like one of my
17:18favorite contrarian tournament plays on the slate is because like maybe you just pay up 500 more to Lamar Jackson.
17:24That's like maybe the best argument I can come up with against it.
17:28But yeah, he looks pretty awesome. I just had a career high 10 rush attempts last week.
17:33This game has the second highest over under on the slate.
17:37And Caleb Williams in games with a 48 point or better over under over his career averages 25.7 DraftKings fantasy points per game.
17:44That's second most of any quarterback in the NFL over that span behind only Josh Allen, who's not on this slate hit
17:5026 or more DK and three of the five.
17:53I think this has the potential to be another or really a second consecutive Caleb Williams blow up week.
17:59Also, the rushing angle is really strong for him because the Vikings blitz so much.
18:04They blitzed 74 percent of the time against the Packers last year.
18:07They lead the NFL in blitz rate over the last season plus one game.
18:11And we see Williams scramble rate go all the way up to second highest in the NFL when he's blitzed.
18:18It is like a pretty big difference in scramble rate for Williams.
18:21So that's just like a really strong play to me.
18:24I think you'd want to at least single stack him.
18:27And of course, that's kind of where the difficulty comes in is deciding which Bears pass catchers to pair him with Graham
18:34had a good note on Roma Dunze at the top that, yeah, we should expect him to play more this week, I would say.
18:41But I think I'm still more interested in either Luther Burden or Colson Loveland Burden.
18:46While it was disappointing that Califf Raymond was as involved as he was in week one, it was still a career high 68 percent route share for Burden.
18:55And that was really the concern on Burden heading into the season is, hey, is his role actually going to scale up?
19:01That's what we saw last week. And for a player that is this efficient, he leads the Bears in yards per out
19:08run against the blitz at like three point eight.
19:11I think that's pretty interesting. He's at fifty seven hundred priced a bit below some of the stronger point per dollar receiver
19:17plays on the slate and Colson Loveland still at just five K in a game or after a game where he ran
19:24over an 80 percent route share is just really, really enticing to me.
19:28Since the Bears by last year, Loveland averages two point two five yards per out run, which was more than Brock Bowers
19:35as a rookie, more than Trey McBride over the same span.
19:38He's a really efficient, really talented player. Just one game of having a dud is not going to scare me off him
19:45when he's on the field as much as possible.
19:48The role was very, very much there. So I think he's probably my favorite stack with Caleb this week.
19:53So that's mostly how I want to play the Bears.
19:56I do think DeAndre Swift at sixty three hundred projecting for single digit ownership after the game he just had is pretty compelling.
20:04Over 20 expected fantasy points, top five among all running backs last week.
20:07The matchup is arguably arguably kind of difficult, at least based on how the Packers running backs looked last week.
20:14But I don't hate that at all for Swift, where the Bears could just have this dominant run game this year where they're rolling over every single team.
20:22Swift averages nearly 18 DraftKings fantasy points per game in wins since the start of last year, which would rank top five
20:29among all running backs on the slate. So I think you can play it through there as well.
20:34There are a couple other fun contrarian running backs in his price range, but he's in consideration for me.
20:40Yeah, I agree. He's definitely in consideration. Javante Williams is going to draw considerable ownership at sixty four hundred.
20:46That's the exact way I wrote it up. Ryan is just like, hey, this Bears offensive line was like top seven last
20:53week, opened up nearly three yards before contact for Swift.
20:56It is a tough on paper matchup, but I kind of just want to lean into the Chicago Bears run game.
21:02I mean, since like basically the middle of last season, Ben Johnson has just been in his bag with the run game.
21:09So I'm with you. I think Swift and this entire Bears offense is very, very interesting, especially looking across ownership projections across the industry.
21:16I mean, Williams is projecting for four percent Swift, seven, eight percent.
21:20All the pass catchers are right around six to seven percent as well.
21:24I want to be in on the Bears this week for sure, leaning heavily into this awesome offense.
21:29This game coming up here has a chance to kind of flop, in my opinion.
21:34Bengals and the Texans, the Texans are two and a half point favorites.
21:38This total is forty six and a half. I believe it's come down just a little bit since I pulled the numbers earlier yesterday.
21:45Obviously, the big note is Nico Collins. He's going to miss this game with a hamstring injury.
21:50It's going to leave the Texans with Kayshaun Booty as their top wide receiver, along with Xavier Hutchinson.
21:56Dalton Schultz will probably get an elevated role. Jake, you're, you know, you're the Bengals guy from Cincinnati.
22:01It feels like a tricky spot. Like I've gone back and forth.
22:05Like Joe Burrow is probably going to be two or three percent owned, maybe maybe a little bit more in some single entry stuff.
22:12Jamar Chase is going to be like a quarter of the ownership he was pushing for in most contests last week.
22:19The Texans did get flamed. Like, you know, Josh Allen is obviously running super hot to start the year, but they got absolutely smoked last week by Allen.
22:27They gave up a ton of fantasy points to the, you know, the Bills perimeter receivers.
22:32So yeah, on paper, obviously the Texans have the best defense in football still, in my opinion, the secondary is going to get going.
22:40But I mean, Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase at low ownership always is enticing.
22:44And Chase Brown, man, I think he's one of my favorite plays on the slate.
22:48What do you think of the Bengals in this spot against Houston?
22:52Yeah, I do think this is a really interesting spot.
22:55You know, Joe Burrow, as you noted, tough matchup.
22:58He's not really anywhere close to projecting as a value in our numbers and he's not fully healthy.
23:03You know, he did say he'll play in this game, but he got the Q tag after that, that tough hit on
23:10the, on the scramble that he took last week.
23:13But then you see the ownership, you know, should Joe Burrow ever be two or three percent owned?
23:18I, I don't, I don't necessarily think so. I mean, I'm not going to get there in single entry, probably not going
23:25to get there in three max, but I think, you know, for people MMEing, not that hard to get overweight Burrow if he's two or three percent owned.
23:34And I think another note on Burrow that makes me a little tempted here.
23:38I mean, far from my favorite quarterback player, far from my favorite stack, but certainly interesting.
23:43Jamar Chase is relatively cheap. T Higgins is relatively cheap and Houston led the NFL in single high usage in week one.
23:49And we know Jamar Chase absolutely shreds single high coverages.
23:52So I do want a little bit of exposure to this stack.
23:56It always feels like Burrow goes off when no one is on him.
24:00And this would certainly be a week where no one's going to be on Joe Burrow.
24:05And yeah, I'm with you, Graham. I think Chase Brown also really interesting.
24:09The price is great at sixty nine hundred. He was the RB for last week based on expected fantasy points.
24:15So, yeah, more than fine with Chase Brown. Overall, he would be my my favorite play on the Bengals side.
24:21But, you know, I don't want to go into the slate with no Burrow, no Jamar Chase exposure.
24:27Yeah, that's exactly what I'm thinking as well. Definitely want a little bit of the Bengals.
24:32And again, I'm just with you. I mean, in terms of technical values based on volume, Chase Brown is probably one of the better ones.
24:39He might he might be slightly worse than Ashton Jintz.
24:42He will get there in a little bit, though.
24:45Ryan, I'll throw it over to you for your thoughts on the Texans.
24:49There's a chance that this offense just like completely sputters out without their top receiver.
24:54Collins is is obviously, you know, kind of the engine for this passing game.
24:58David Montgomery was freaking awesome. He was a fantasy points favorite.
25:01Pretty much all of us here at fantasy points were on him last this summer.
25:06He scores three touchdowns, got 23 touches in week one.
25:09There's really like no holes to poke in Montgomery.
25:12And it doesn't seem like a whole lot of people are going to play him.
25:16What do you think of the Texans this week, Ryan?
25:19Yeah, Texans are interesting. I think you had a really good note in our projections chat earlier today, just pointing out that
25:26the Texans have gone a lot run heavier, especially in games without Nico Collins.
25:30In those two games last year, they were a negative 2.4 percent pass rate over expectation where they were positive with Nico in the lineup.
25:38So I do think it makes a little bit of sense to lean into David Montgomery here as a contrarian option.
25:44Of course, he got every single backfield touch inside the red zone last week, led the backfield in route share, ran more routes than Woody Marks did.
25:52So, yeah, while the snap share was kind of closer and people were worried about Woody Marks heading into the end of
25:59the summer, I do think ultimately Monty is just going to continue consolidating all the high value touches.
26:05So that's pretty compelling to me. I think he's a decent contrarian play.
26:09The easiest argument against him is how much you think the Texans offense is going to function without Nico Collins.
26:15I admit I'm somewhat worried about that, but I mean, the total hasn't come down that far.
26:20Like they're still favorites like this is a pretty solid play to me.
26:24We should also talk about Dalton Schultz because he is going to be one of the most popular tight ends on the slate.
26:31Very likely. I get it in that the Bengals have been one of the worst defenses against tight ends over the last like 10 seasons.
26:39Three more DraftKings fantasy points per game allowed to them than any other defense since the start of last year.
26:45It's a perfect spot, perfect matchup for Dalton Schultz to like just consolidate the volume, put up a really nice score.
26:51He's only 3,200, which feels way too cheap and is way too cheap.
26:55But I'm like a little tempted to argue against it.
26:58I think I clearly if I'm picking between like the two chalkier tight ends, I think I clearly prefer Andrews, mostly because
27:05Dalton Schultz has never shown that much upside. Jake had a nice stat earlier this week pointing out that in games without
27:12Nico Collins since 2023, Schultz has never scored more than 11.3 DraftKings fantasy points.
27:16Over the last three seasons in total, just among all games, he's only hit 15 DK points five times, which, yeah, I don't know.
27:23I think the projection, the point per dollar and everything is really strong.
27:27I'm not like arguing against that, but I do think it's like a pretty easy case to fade him in tournaments just
27:34because of the upside and the fragility that I'm talking about here.
27:38Yeah, definitely fragile projection for the Texans offense this week.
27:41You know, CJ Stroud has struggled a little bit without Nico.
27:44And, you know, like I said at the top, man, this entire offense runs through him.
27:49I got to say real quick before we move on, you kind of mentioned there was some concern about Woody Marks, you
27:56know, kind of stealing some work from David Montgomery this season.
27:59And I'm just sorry. If you thought that, you don't know ball.
28:03You do not know ball. If you were concerned about Woody Marks here at fantasy points, we got a team of ball
28:09knowers that were not concerned about Woody Marks. And our team of ball knowers are absolutely helping you dominate your DFS lineups.
28:16All of your contests this season, myself and Jake are co-writing slate breakdown.
28:20We had a nice week one. Ryan Heath's advanced matchups is always a must read.
28:25All of our projections and ownership projections can be bought with the fantasy pro package here at fantasy points.
28:30And you can get a discount right now. DFS code DFS for 10% off.
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28:49Guys, let's keep it going here. Steelers and the Patriots.
28:52Steelers and the Patriots. Patriots are five and a half point favorites after last week's debacle in Seattle.
28:57I thought Drake may played absolutely terrible, looked like a rookie in Seattle.
29:01But yeah, nice little projection for new England coming off a really bad game.
29:06Injury notes in this game, Michael Pittman is going to miss with a foot injury.
29:10Maybe this was the injury he had in training camp that we didn't get too much information about.
29:16He was dealing with an undisclosed injury. I'm totally speculating, but he's going to miss this week.
29:21And Trevion Henderson is off the injury report. He will play week two after Ramondri Stevenson got bell cow workload last week against Seattle.
29:28Jake, we got to have the talk, man. DK Metcalf.
29:31He's 5,200. He's too cheap. He got 10 targets last week.
29:35He got 50% of the air yards and scored eight fantasy points.
29:38That sounds like DK Metcalf. He is going to draw, I think, pretty considerable ownership.
29:43Chris has never been really a big DK Metcalf guy.
29:46I know him personally. He's never really loved Metcalf, but he is popping as one of the best values on DraftKings.
29:52What do you think of the Steelers this week, man?
29:56Yeah. I mean, Metcalf isn't just one of the best values.
29:59He's actually right now our top wide receiver value on the slate.
30:03You know, 19 expected fantasy points last week, like you noted, obviously fell flat.
30:07But I was encouraged by the passing volume. Pittsburgh posted the second highest pass rate over expectation of any team in week one.
30:14That's something that's historically been pretty sticky with Mike McCarthy.
30:17And, you know, Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers are boys.
30:20I think Rodgers might want to sling it. McCarthy wants to sling it.
30:24And, you know, at this point with no Michael Pittman, it does look like Metcalf is going to get peppered with targets.
30:31So, you know, I think you're probably going there in cash.
30:34He's a great value, but man, in GPPs, I would not blame you if you wanted to be underweight on DK Metcalf.
30:41I'll be curious where ownership comes in. But yeah, it's, I think a bit tougher of a sell in GPPs, just given
30:47the historic production we've seen out of him. Yeah, if he pushes like moderate ownership, Jake, like, I don't know, 15% ish,
30:54then yeah, sure, I'll have some for sure. But yeah, if he's projecting to be one of the chalkier ownership, you know,
31:01one of the higher own plays on the slate, we'll have to see on Saturday.
31:05But I'm kind of with you. I think that's where it'll trend.
31:09He's just going to project so well and pop up in so many optimizers across the industry this week.
31:15Ryan, you are a resident Patriots fan. And I'm curious for your thoughts of what you saw to Drake May.
31:21Obviously, we're going to have a bit of a different pass catching group this week.
31:26AJ Brown on IR. He's going to miss the next four weeks at least.
31:30So we're going to run Romeo Dobbs, Demario Douglas, Matt Collins, Eli Raritan, and Hunter Henry are going to kind of be
31:37the rotation for the Patriots this week. I got to admit, man, I think Drake May is a little interesting at 6,100 if nobody's going to play him.
31:45I think that's really the best angle I could give is it's Drake May.
31:49He was the QB2 in fantasy points per game last year and no one wants to play him.
31:55That's about as far as I'd go, though. I don't feel that great about this passing game whatsoever.
32:00I would really love Kayshaun Booty as a Patriots fan right now.
32:04Sure would have been cool if we hadn't traded him away for absolutely nothing for no reason before the season would have
32:11been a nice little depth piece there for this team.
32:14But yeah, to move on to the DFS analysis instead of the Patriots grievances, I think Ramondre Stevenson is going just as a bit under owned.
32:22I think he's pretty underrated on this slate. He's only 5,700 to me, unless I'm forgetting someone.
32:27I think to me, that's the best running back play under 6K.
32:31It's a five and a half point spread. Stevenson averages 16.1 DraftKings points per game in wins going back to the start of last season.
32:38That would rank seventh best on the slate. He's priced as the RB18.
32:42He was in a total every down bell cow workload last week, of course, with Trevion Henderson out.
32:48But plenty of that sample that I just rattled off where Stevenson has scored as a top seven running back in wins
32:54included a lot of games with Trevion Henderson active.
32:57I just don't think the team likes him that much.
33:00If I'm being frank, Stevenson, it's just not a team or an offense that cares about generating explosives in the run game.
33:07That's not really like the idea that Josh McDaniel has ever seemed to have.
33:11So I do think the workload could continue to be pretty good for Stevenson.
33:15I like him quite a bit if you're trying to save money at the position.
33:20I guess the only other player I have any passing interest in on this offense would be Demario Douglas as purely a
33:27punt option at the wide receiver position. He's 3,800.
33:30It does seem like the team is kind of obsessed with him.
33:33He has a positive schematic matchup this week. Five of his seven targets came against cover three last week.
33:39And that is what we have seen the Steelers and their new defensive coordinator, Patrick Graham, lean into going back to last
33:46year when he was with the Raiders. So I do think there's like a nice coverage shell match there.
33:52Douglas leading the team in route participation over 80% in the second half without A.J.
33:56Brown last week. He's like the dart I would throw for a punt wide receiver here.
34:01I'm not that excited about it, but I think he's maybe better than some of the other punts people are going to play this week.
34:09I'm with you. I think there's a little bit of underrated upside.
34:12Last week, Douglas had a really low average depth of target.
34:16I'm just chalking that up to, hey, Seattle's got one of the best secondaries, maybe the best secondary in football right now.
34:22But last season, Douglas actually had nearly a 10-yard A dot down the field.
34:27His A dot was actually a little deeper than Stephon Diggs.
34:30I'm with you. $3,800 is a nice price. Maybe I'm a little higher on Drake Maiden than you guys, and that's okay.
34:37I think he's legitimately interesting at $7,500 on FanDuel.
34:39He prices the QB11 over there. Definitely a decent technical value on FanDuel.
34:43Guys, we'll keep it going here. Packers and the Jets.
34:46Packers are just three-and-a-half point favorites going into New York.
34:50Over-under, 44-and-a-half. Only real injury note I have in this game is Omar Cooper is out with an ankle injury.
34:56He seems like maybe an IR candidate. Right now he's week-to-week.
34:59Regardless, it's kind of a little bit of a consolidated pass-catching group for the Jets.
35:04Ryan, or excuse me, Jake, let's talk to you with your thoughts on the Packers.
35:08Marshawn Lloyd week did not work out super well.
35:11I think our guy Chris Wecht chalked it up really nicely that basically the Packers kind of had to keep their running
35:18backs in the backfield last week blocking for Jordan Love because, like as Ryan said earlier in the show, yeah, they just
35:24got blitzed into oblivion by Brian Flores, who's just a complete madman.
35:28Should be a completely different spot here against this Jets defense.
35:31That's pretty solid, but definitely not as good as the Vikings.
35:35Jake, what do you think of the Packers here, man?
35:38Yeah, I think the Packers are really interesting this week.
35:41I'm not all that excited about Marshawn Lloyd. You mentioned there is some underrated receiving upside, I think, relative to last week.
35:48But if they fall behind, he can still lose routes to Chris Brooks.
35:51He can still lose goal line stuff to Chris Brooks.
35:55I also think that we have a pretty compelling running back value in the same range in Aaron Jones.
36:00So I'd rather just pay, what is it, $200 less to get Aaron Jones.
36:05But I do think the passing attack here for Green Bay is pretty interesting to me in GPPs.
36:10You know, Jordan Love's only 5,900, and Green Bay just posted their fourth highest pass rate over expectation since 2024.
36:16And that was kind of the thesis with no Josh Jacobs that this team would want to lean more into the pass.
36:23They have talented receivers. They have Jordan Love. And the nice thing this week is that, you know, Matthew Golden, Jaden Reed,
36:30both under 5K, they're very easy to fit into stacks.
36:33And then Christian Watson, the best of the trio, is also pretty reasonably priced here.
36:37So I'm sort of stacking Love always with Christian Watson.
36:40And then I'm going to mix in some Golden, mix in some Reed, mix in some Tucker Craft, get some double stacks going there.
36:48But yeah, I think I really want to play this through the passing attack.
36:52And yeah, that's kind of how I'm looking at Green Bay right now.
36:56Yeah, if you're listening to us on YouTube, our guy Trey has the Fantasy Points data suite up on the screen.
37:02You can see Jaden Reed's route share is just at 63% in a game where Tucker Craft was basically limited.
37:08It'll be Matthew Golden playing all the 12 personnel snaps.
37:11Ryan, I think you noted it earlier on in our projections meeting that Golden's basically just token over the Romeo Dobbs role.
37:18I'm done with Jaden Reed. He's going to have a couple good games this year because he always earns targets on the field.
37:25But man, I mean, like, dude, he's if you can't if you can't run a bigger route share with Tucker Craft, you
37:32know, being limited this week and to start this season, then I mean, I don't I don't really know what we're talking about.
37:39Ryan, your thoughts on the Jets here, man. I think they're a little interesting.
37:43Packers could certainly push. Gino's cheap and Garrett Wilson is a nice price.
37:47Yeah, I just first want to note totally with you in terms of being done with Jaden Reed.
37:53Dude, it's over. Yeah, it's over. He's so cheap, though.
37:56I mean, the hashtag fell for it again. I will say him and Golden are both projecting as like fringe top 20,
38:02top 25 values for us just because of the price.
38:06I totally understand the frustration, but the price is pretty nice there.
38:09Yeah, no, I agree. Packers passing game is really intriguing this week.
38:13And I do think one of my like more fun ways to play that is you can either do the full stack
38:20with a Garrett Wilson bring back or you can just go with a mini stack.
38:24I think Christian Watson, Garrett Wilson, Matthew Golden, Garrett Wilson is fairly compelling.
38:28Wilson was in the role we expected for him.
38:31He ranked top five in first read target share among all wide receivers in week one.
38:36Of course, it was a game that his team led throughout, which is likely not going to be the case in this
38:42game or most of the Jets game. So I do think there's some underrated upside here for a Garrett Wilson.
38:49It is a strong coverage shell matchup for him, as I wrote about in advanced matchups that people can check out.
38:55But I think more so this Packers defense, we could be looking back five weeks from now and saying, oh, this is
39:02actually just one of the defenses we always want to play guys against.
39:06Going back to last season, they rank fifth worst in EPA per drop back allowed on snaps with Micah Parsons off the field.
39:13They generated a bottom 10 pressure rate in week one.
39:16That's a really, really big note because Geno Smith is the most pressure sensitive quarterback in the league by accurate throw rate,
39:22by all of our charted advanced quarterback metrics. So I do think if there's any spot for Geno to support a ceiling
39:29game for Garrett Wilson, I think it would be right here.
39:33And I like playing that. I mentioned there's a lot of good 6K range wide receivers.
39:37I think Wilson is one of my favorites right now, even though he's going to pick up a little bit of ownership.
39:44So he's pretty strong. Brees Hall is OK to me.
39:47I think he's a worse play than DeAndre Swift.
39:50And then another 6K-ish running back that we're going to talk about.
39:54For me, the concern with Hall is that Braylon Allen, I think, is still an issue at the goal line.
40:00He had a 23-yard rushing touchdown called back due to penalty.
40:03Last week had a couple other short yardage snaps negated by penalty.
40:07I don't think it is just going to be reset the goal line every time like the box score would have suggested last week.
40:14So that, to me, is why I'm a little scared of Hall in a game where the Jets are three-point dogs.
40:20Hall's route share had come down relative to where it was last year with Braylon Allen healthy.
40:26So, yeah, I'm probably good on Hall, but Garrett Wilson is compelling.
40:29And, I mean, we talked about Carson Wentz earlier.
40:32I think he just blows out every other cheap QB on this slate.
40:36But I guess Geno, from that angle, is fine.
40:39I'm with you. Yeah, Wentz is certainly the better play.
40:42He's got the better play caller. Justin Jefferson is potentially the best receiver on this slate as well.
40:47That being said, I'm a known Geno Smith hater.
40:50I've never liked Geno Smith, but this is kind of a really good spot the more you dig into it.
40:56Your note on this Packers defense without Micah Parsons is super dank.
41:00And, man, I've always loved Garrett Wilson. 29% target share last week.
41:04Got a huge 38% first read target share. And really just he could have had a really nice game, six catches, 79 grabs.
41:11He only ran 21 routes just because the Titans offense was a total train wreck last week.
41:16Again, Packers should be able to push in this spot.
41:19Yeah, Geno is certainly going to make slate breakdown this week.
41:22I'm not really entirely sure Jake will have him shake out in the rankings, but certainly in play for tournaments just because this spot is pretty nice.
41:30You know what's not a nice spot? Anytime the Browns are playing.
41:34Deshaun Watson was an absolute catastrophe last week for the Jags.
41:37Against the Jags, excuse me. We've got Browns and Bucs.
41:40Bucs are big, 8.5 point favorites. This total is just 41.5.
41:44The Browns have a 16.5 implied point team total.
41:47Jake, I've pretty much just X'd out the Browns, man.
41:50I mean, it's rough out here. Yeah, it is.
41:52It is really rough. You guys know that meme that's like, damn, bitch, you live like this?
41:58That's how I feel about the Browns offense right now.
42:01It is a disaster. I want nothing to do with them.
42:04Deshaun Watson actually projects as our QB11 by value, but there's a lot of good value quarterbacks on the board.
42:10I'm just, I'm not clicking it. Yeah, play Wentz, play Geno.
42:13If you're trying to build a, you know, kind of a cheaper quarterback team, there's just, there's just way better quarterbacks down there.
42:20Ryan, let's talk about the Bucs, man. Much better offense.
42:24Baker had some really bad turnovers last week, just some boneheaded turnovers, but otherwise he played pretty well.
42:29He's back fully healthy. The catchable throw rate was up.
42:32I think Amika Ibuka is a pretty strong play here in this spot.
42:36Same with Bucky Irving. We'll see if Sean Tucker actually does play around the goal line, but I think one of the
42:43most interesting things, as Jake noted in Slate Breakdown this week, he actually played quite a bit in the passing game.
42:49It was kind of my big concern coming into this year that Bucky was just basically going to get cucked by Gainwell
42:56in the pass game, but nah, it was actually Irving.
42:59Got a 25% target share, as Jake noted. What do you think of the spot here for the Bucs?
43:05A little bit of a bounce back maybe for Baker against this Browns defense that has, I mean, they've just been one
43:11of the worst defenses in football without Mouse Garrett.
43:14Yeah, I really like the Buccaneers this week. We wrote this up in Everything Report earlier in the week, but from a
43:21team regression level after week one, I think the Buccaneers are kind of the best buy low type of offense.
43:27They ranked bottom six in total plays run just because, yeah, as you mentioned, there were so many turnovers.
43:33They had a minus three turnover differential. That's like the flukiest thing in football.
43:37If that just doesn't happen in this game where they are massive favorites, could be a lot more plays run, could be
43:44just a lot more fantasy points for their entire offense.
43:47So I think Bucky Irving especially stands out as a strong play to me.
43:51I mentioned Reese Hall, DeAndre Swift, as he's like 6K-ish running backs.
43:55I think Bucky is just the best of all of them.
43:58Career high, 25% target share. Last week, man, ran more routes than Gainwell.
44:02Got all of the work inside the red zone.
44:05I'm not scared of Sean Tucker. He had to take a pay cut to even stay with the team.
44:11It didn't really sound like this regime was that high on him.
44:14So I just admit this place where Bucky Irving was this talent.
44:18Everyone was so excited about going into 2025. He was getting taken in the late second round of redraft leagues, was viewed as this ascending running back talent.
44:27Last year, really just the health and the high value touches were kind of taken away as the season went on because he wasn't very healthy.
44:34But I think we're just back with Bucky. And yeah, with reasonable ownership, we're showing him at around 10% right now.
44:41That's going to be one of my favorite running back plays on the slate.
44:45I think Emeka Ibuka is interesting just for similar team level regression reasons.
44:49He's at 6,400 kind of in that, again, very crowded range where there's a lot of exciting wide receiver plays to me.
44:56Probably the best note I had on him was that he had six targets on plays with motion at the snap to Chris Godwin's one in week one.
45:04That was kind of the Drake London cheat code last year that Zach Robinson would use to get all of his players
45:11the ball in their hands and just consolidate all of this fantasy production to them.
45:16So I think Ibuka is also a really interesting play.
45:19He's going to be extremely under-owned. Yeah, as I said, a lot of good wide receivers to get to in that range.
45:25I think Bucky is a better play, but both of them are pretty intriguing to me.
45:30Yeah, I'm definitely with you. Jalen McMillan should be back.
45:33He seemed legitimately close to playing last week. He had this knee injury that he picked up in August.
45:39He should be practicing. He was practicing fully. He should be back this week.
45:43Guys, I'm pretty concerned about Chris Godwin. I fully faded him this year just because, hey, I kind of thought there was a chance he might be dust.
45:52According to our average separation score metrics here at Fantasy Points Data, yeah, he had a negative ass last week.
45:58There's a real chance that we're on the last legs for Godwin, and it sucks because Godwin has been one of my
46:05favorite players, one of our favorite players here at Fantasy Points for a very long time.
46:10But I'm looking at this as like, hey, maybe this is Buka's chance to really prove that he's an alpha target earner
46:16with Godwin taking a big step back and Jalen McMillan maybe not being fully close and fully integrated in the offense after he's missed so much practice time.
46:25All right, guys, let's get to the final game of the 1 p.m.
46:29slate, big 1 p.m. slate this week, Eagles and the Titans.
46:32Eagles are seven-point favorites. This total is 39.5. The Titans have a 16.3 implied team total.
46:37Eagles are tricky, man, because Jalen Hurts is certainly capable of dropping a 30-burger.
46:41Dallas Goddard is one of the best value plays on the slate, Jake.
46:45But I have real concerns about Cam Ward and the Titans being able to push the Eagles offense in this spot.
46:52What do you think of Philly? Yeah, I think I have the same concerns.
46:56And to me, that leads me to Saquon Barkley, who's very reasonably priced at only $7,000, only projecting for about 10% ownership too.
47:03And he's a guy who's averaged 20.5 DraftKings fantasy points per game in his wins since he joined the Eagles, scoring at
47:10least 36 DK points in 24% of those games.
47:13So he's not projecting as one of the highest-owned running backs of the slate.
47:17This is a spot where they would be expected to lean on Saquon Barkley.
47:21That certainly makes me like him. I'm not going to get to a ton of Hurts.
47:26I think you can stack Hurts with Devontae Smith, Dontavian Wicks.
47:29But Dallas Goddard would be my favorite option overall.
47:32Pretty solid schematic matchup for Goddard against a Titans defense that's expected to run a lot of cover three.
47:38But like you said, they may not need to throw here as seven-point favorites.
47:42I think Barkley, clearly my favorite play here. And then I'll mix in some Goddard into my lineups, but probably won't get too many stacks from this game.
47:51Ryan, you have the unfortunate task of talking Titans this week.
47:54What do you think of Tennessee, man? It's bad.
47:57What do you want me to say? I'm not playing any of these guys.
48:01Say nothing. Say nothing. I think it's fine. Yeah, I'm all set.
48:05I can give you like a depressing Cam Ward stat if you want.
48:09Sure. Make Titans fans even more tilted. So here, Cam Ward has failed to reach 200 passing yards in 10 of his first 18 NFL starts now.
48:17I'm going to read off the name of every other quarterback since 2010 with more than 10 games where they haven't done that through their first 18.
48:25It is Blaine Gabbert, Justin Fields, Bryce Young, Jimmy Claussen, Tyler Huntley, Jake Locker, Derek Carr, Josh Rosen, and Jalen Hurts.
48:32So, yeah, I guess pray that he's Derek Carr or Jalen Hurts.
48:35Titans fans. Good luck. Yeah, good luck, Titans fans.
48:38It is rough out here. It is rough if you drafted any Titans.
48:42That was a team we were avoiding here at Fantasy Points.
48:45All of us were off for Carnell Tate and pretty much everybody on this offense.
48:50And, honestly, it feels weird. It's week two, but I'm pretty much X-ing out Titans and Browns.
48:55This feels like kind of a middle-of-the-season slate for these two offenses.
48:59We've just got so many better teams to play guys on.
49:02And, Ryan, you're just right. I mean, this is pretty brutal.
49:06Let's talk about a better game. Jags and the Broncos.
49:09Broncos are two-and-a-half point favorites here in Denver. 45-and-a-half total.
49:12I think the Jags are pretty underrated here in this spot, Jake.
49:15I mean, Trevor Lawrence is still too cheap. Parker Washington is still too cheap.
49:20Man, the Broncos, I have a ton of respect for this defense.
49:23I picked the Broncos to go to the Super Bowl.
49:26That looks pretty bad after week one, after we saw what we saw out of Bo Nix.
49:32But, Jags, man, I think they're pretty underrated here in this spot.
49:35The team total is not great. I think that's going to keep a lot of ownership off these players.
49:41Yeah, I think it is. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Trevor Lawrence catch a little steam.
49:47Of course, the argument against Lawrence is, you know, we basically never want to play a quarterback on the road against this Denver defense.
49:54But the argument for Lawrence is basically every other data point possible.
49:57Over his last eight games, he ever just 27 expected fantasy points per game.
50:02That's three more than the next closest quarterback, easily first, and 26 actual fantasy points per game.
50:07And, you know, the hot start that he had in week one pretty much only confirms to me that this season's version
50:14of Trevor Lawrence is the same guy that we saw last year who scored 31 DraftKings points against Denver on the road in week 16.
50:21Broncos also run top three rates of man coverage dating back to 2025.
50:25And Trevor Lawrence has crushed man coverage over that same time span.
50:2950% increase to his fantasy points per drop back, 24% boost to his yards per attempt against man coverage.
50:35Of course, all those man notes also lead us to Parker Washington.
50:38Ryan noted a fantastic schematic matchup for Parker Washington here.
50:41So I'm stacking Trevor Lawrence with Parker Washington every time.
50:45But I also think you can mix in Jacoby Myers, mix in Brenton Strange.
50:49BTJ is expected to get the Pat Sertan shadow.
50:52So he would probably be the wide receiver that I'm the lowest on here.
50:56I do think you can also mix in a little bit of Bysholtun.
51:00He looked really good in week one. And the Broncos did just get shredded by Ken Walker.
51:05But I primarily want to play this through the passing game.
51:08And I mean, geez, if we get Trevor Lawrence at sub 5% ownership, I'm going to be very, very excited about him in tournaments.
51:16Yeah, we didn't learn too much about this Jags backfield, Jake, just because, I mean, the Browns were just not competitive week one.
51:23But Tootin looked incredible, as you noted. Tons of missed tackles forced, according to our fantasy points data.
51:28And yeah, BTJ is interesting. He left the game early with a shoulder injury.
51:32He's completely fine. But in the first quarter, Parker Washington, BTJ both ran eight routes.
51:37Washington had four targets. BTJ had three. Jacoby Myers had zero.
51:40So yeah, just a really tough spot. Pat Sertan is basically the only corner that I'm really afraid of to catch it,
51:47you know, when a receiver catches a shadow. But Trevor Lawrence is just playing at such a high level, legitimate MVP candidate
51:54that, yeah, I think he's in consideration as like a 1% or 2% GPP play.
51:58I'm going to write him up, probably bury him in the rankings, but definitely write him up.
52:04Ryan, I'll throw to you for your thoughts on the Broncos.
52:07I noted earlier, I mean, Bo Nix was just a catastrophe.
52:10Davis Webb had a really, really bad first game.
52:13Colin plays here for the Broncos. I just pulled it up on Twitter.
52:17RJ Harvey is practicing. He picked up a hamstring injury.
52:20He's questionable going into this spot. But let's talk Broncos.
52:23Let's talk Bo Nix. Across the industry, just looking at projections from, you know, everybody in the industry, it seems like Bo
52:30Nix is one of the best, if not the best, points per dollar value plays on the slate.
52:35And I get it. I mean, Bo Nix was awesome for fantasy last year.
52:40He was a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Jalen Waddell is too cheap.
52:43I think he's going to have a bounce back here very, very soon.
52:47Could be this week. But man, this is just such a good quarterback slate.
52:52What do you think of the Broncos? Yeah, to be honest, I'm going to have a hard time playing Broncos at all this week.
52:59Nick's, as you mentioned, makes sense just from a value perspective.
53:02He's only 5,700. Anyone that does projections and has to actually work through it in the spreadsheets is going to tell you,
53:09yeah, Bo Nix is a good value, should score a good amount of fantasy points for that dollar price tag.
53:15But like, I don't know, man. I watch that Davis Webb offense.
53:19It's really hard for me to want to play him or any piece from this team.
53:24But I do think if you want to step back and say, hey, week one's a one-week sample with a new play
53:30caller's first actual time calling a regular season NFL game, maybe he just is better in week two.
53:36Like, I would hear that out. I would much prefer to play this game through the Jaguars, though.
53:41If you are playing Knicks or if you are interested in Broncos, I think Waddell just is where I would go back to.
53:48It sucks that he's 6,500, so kind of at the higher end of that 6K range of receivers that I keep talking up.
53:55Just one catch on three targets last week. He did at least lead the team in route participation rate.
54:01I do think this offense probably wants to have Jalen Waddell highly involved.
54:05You heard on the broadcast on Monday night that Sean Payton told his wife to draft Jalen Waddell in fantasy football.
54:12Clearly, it didn't work out with how they actually were running the offense.
54:15In this game. But I do think Waddell will bounce back at some point.
54:20I just don't know that he's like where I want to place my chips on this slate.
54:25Yeah, the only other thing I could come up with is Evan Engram is 3,300 was a little bit more involved.
54:31If you're looking for a punt tight end that isn't Dalton Schultz, I think there's maybe some intrigue there.
54:37But will I ultimately play him outside of like a 150 set at all?
54:41Probably not. Yeah, I maybe misspoke. Yeah, Waddell is definitely not a value on DraftKings.
54:46But I do think he's decent play on Fandle.
54:49Just 6,700. Price below Ted Aronick, Milla. And he's right in that range with Parker Washington.
54:54I think Waddell makes quite a bit of sense over there.
54:57I'm with you. There's just better plays on DraftKings in the 6K range.
55:01Maybe I misspoke a moment ago. Let's go to Raiders and the Chargers.
55:05Chargers, man, really rough game for the Chargers. The offensive line was struggling.
55:09I don't think Justin Herbert played his best game ever.
55:12He didn't play terribly, though. But Raiders, Chargers here, man, 6.5 point favorites.
55:16Los Angeles, 6.5 point favorites. Total is 43.5. Big injury note to watch this weekend is Lad McConkie.
55:21He picked up a ribs injury. He got hit in the back.
55:25It looked like a pretty gnarly hit last week.
55:28I thought maybe he just got the wind knocked out of him.
55:32But we'll see. John Harbaugh is, man, I mean, he's really, really hard to get information on when it comes to injuries.
55:38We're not going to have really any information probably going into this slate unless Schefter just drops a bomb or rap sheet drops a bomb before Saturday night.
55:47We'll see, man. Raiders side, Jake, pretty interesting. I had Ashton Gentry ranked as the top tournament play last week in DFS.
55:53That worked out pretty well. He did not really get priced up on either site, especially on FanDuel.
55:596,800 on DraftKings. Just a really strong spot, man.
56:02Looked fully healthy. I know the Chargers, what this spread is telling us.
56:06Chargers are nearly a touchdown favorite. But I've got to go back to Gentry again.
56:10Yeah. I mean, I do too. He looked incredible in week one.
56:14Finished Sunday with the second best running back workload and the third most fantasy points.
56:19And, you know, even with the spread, Gentry's going to be involved regardless.
56:22He had a 20% target share. He ranked fifth among all running backs in route share.
56:27So I really think you can play Gentry regardless of how you think this game's going to play out.
56:33Because he should just be $1,000 more expensive running back at his talent level, getting a bell cow workload at 6,800.
56:40Just way too cheap here. And then the only other guy that I'm really that interested in on the Raiders side.
56:46I suppose you can play Trey Tucker. But Michael Mayer, you know, led the Raiders in targets last week without Brock Bowers.
56:53In his five games since 2025 without Bowers, he averages 0.27 targets per route run.
56:57That's an elite number. That would have led all tight ends in 2025.
57:01So the per route efficiency with a guy like Michael Mayer is as good as any tight end in the NFL.
57:08And he's only 3,600. This is a very good spot.
57:11He's a strong value. Yet again, I think we have Schultz as a slightly better play.
57:16But to me, their neck and neck is sort of the top point per dollar tight end values.
57:21Yeah, definitely. And Mayer is going to be pretty much maybe half the ownership looking at industry ownership projections.
57:27He's about 10% across the industry average right now.
57:30That's going to be a lot lower than it was in week one.
57:34He's a very, very strong play, as Jake noted.
57:36Ryan, I'll throw to you, man. It looked like Lad McConkie was going to have an awesome game, but like I said,
57:43got knocked out with his ribs injury. Pretty much, Justin Herbert's entire projection, in my opinion, this week hinges upon Lad McConkie.
57:50I don't know if I can really play him if his top receivers are Trey Harris and Quentin Johnston.
57:56So that's TBD. Really, the biggest question I want to ask you is what you thought of the Omar and Hampton usage,
58:02and are you going to go back to him here?
58:05I mean, this is a pretty decent bounce back spot against this Raiders defense that has Max Crosby, and then that's kind of it.
58:13Let's talk about Hampton first, yeah. I think overall, from a season-long perspective, I was fairly concerned about Hampton, just because coming
58:19into the year, I thought that it would be much more clearly all Hampton in the high-value touch situations in the red
58:26zone as the guy running the most routes. That's not what we saw.
58:30Hampton played just 57% of the snaps in the red zone, which is the lowest of basically any running back that's priced
58:37at 6,500 or above on this slate. So that's a little concerning to me.
58:41Keaton Mitchell running more routes than him, a little bit concerning to me.
58:45But I mean, ultimately, this is still a really great spot for him, especially if McConkie's banged up.
58:51We could see the Chargers try to lean on the run a little bit more.
58:55That didn't go super well with the interior run blocking last week, but certainly could change against the Raiders.
59:01It's a really good kind of get-right spot for O'Marrion Hampton.
59:04Like a couple, multiple touchdowns wouldn't surprise me. I think he's a pretty decent play.
59:09But yeah, looking over to the passing game, I think it's exactly how you stated it.
59:14I am just going to wait for the Sunday morning Adam Schefter tweet before deciding how I'm playing this team.
59:20Because yeah, if Ladd McConkie's in and not limited, then I would be pretty intrigued by Herbert and McConkie.
59:26The splits with McConkie on and off the field in week one are very, very stark.
59:31Herbert had the fourth best adjusted net yards per attempt on his dropbacks with McConkie and fell to dead last without him,
59:37all the way from 10 NEA to just about one adjusted net yard per attempt.
59:42It was pretty brutal. The offense just didn't do anything without Ladd.
59:46So I do think that's a compelling single stack if Ladd is looking good heading into Sunday morning.
59:51If he's not, then Quentin Johnson, Trey Harris are going to pop as technical values.
59:56I'm just not sure I would go there, honestly.
59:58I just don't have that high an opinion of the talent of either of these players.
60:03Harris at 4K is probably who I'd go with.
60:06He ran every route after McConkie left the game in week one.
60:10I got up to a 25% target share. So that's like fair enough.
60:14I can understand wanting to go there. QJ is up at 5K.
60:17I think there are probably better plays to go after in that range.
60:21Jalen Coker are probably a good example, even if Ladd's out.
60:25So that's how I'm seeing the Chargers. Yeah, I'm with you.
60:28QJ is just priced up too much. I'm with you on that for sure.
60:32And I'm certainly willing to give Omari and Hampton one more week.
60:36I noted, you know, basically Chargers had really bad run blocking in this, their opening game.
60:41We'll see if Mike McDaniel watches the film, makes any adjustments going into week two.
60:45All right, guys. Best game on the slate, Commanders and the Cowboys.
60:49Cowboys are three and a half point favorites. We have a 50 and a half point total.
60:54Only three games, I believe, with a total above 47 this week.
60:58This is one of them here in Dallas. Only injury note I have in this game is Chig Okonkwo is out.
61:04He has a hamstring injury. Kind of consolidating the Washington pass catching group just a little bit here, Jake.
61:10Jay Daniels was pretty interesting last week against the Eagles.
61:13I kind of thought he was in play for contrarian, you know, kind of a contrarian play this week.
61:19He's a pretty awesome player against Dallas. Across the industry, just looking at industry projections, he's anywhere from like the best play
61:26on the slate to, you know, either best play to top three.
61:29Just 6,300 for Jaden Daniels. Dak Prescott is 6,400.
61:32So really nice spot here for this Commanders offense and a potential shootout against Dallas.
61:37Yeah, yeah. Really, really great spot. This is a matchup with a Dallas defense that's allowed the fifth most passing yards per game since 2025.
61:44Just gave up a big rushing workload to Jackson Dart in week one.
61:48And I actually looked at, dating back to last season, no defense has allowed more rushing fantasy points per game or rushing
61:55expected fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks than the Cowboys.
61:58Plus, it's a slate best game environment. So really love Jay Daniels.
62:02I think my preferred way to play this game is through the Commander side.
62:06And I also think that that's because the double stack is very straightforward.
62:10You know, no Chig Okonkwo. Usage should be pretty condensed between Stefan Diggs and Terry McLaurin.
62:15Diggs is 5,300. McLaurin's 5,200. So this is a very reasonably priced double stack with a ton of upside.
62:21And then I think it's easy to use any number of bringbacks from the Dallas side here because the game environment is so good.
62:28Javante Williams, George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, all popping is pretty solid options.
62:32But I'll let Ryan talk a little bit more about those guys.
62:36Yeah, I think I agree overall that just looking at the projections and the projected ownership for this game, I would prefer
62:42to play it through the Commanders because the Cowboys are going to draw a lot of ownership.
62:47The Dak, CeeDee, Pickens stack is going to be probably one of the most popular on the slate.
62:53I understand why CeeDee Lamb priced it just 7,300.
62:56Pickens at just 6,300. They are good values. They are good plays, of course.
63:00CeeDee was top 12 among all position players in XFP per team play last week.
63:05So I think he just is a straightforwardly good value.
63:08George Pickens lost 51 air yards to drops in week one more than he did the entirety of last season.
63:14So he's just like a clear bounce back candidate in this spot.
63:17So I like the Dallas passing game, but I do think relative to projected ownership, I'm not that crazy about it.
63:24Dak, I don't want to doubt the guy a ton, but he just in these big shootouts, he only averages 20.2 DraftKings
63:31points per game in games with a 50 or better total over under.
63:34Only gone over 25 DK once in seven games since the start of last season in these types of big shootout spots.
63:41So I do think very often the way to play it is just to go to the Cowboys opponent.
63:47So I would agree with Jake that that's how I'd prefer to go here with the passing games.
63:53Javante Williams, though, I think is just an awesome play.
63:5620.5 expected fantasy points last week. Played every snap inside the 10.
63:59Got every goal line carry. Just absolutely nothing to complain about with this Javante Williams workload.
64:04Of course, we got the run out where Malik Davis got injured three days before the season.
64:09Amari Di Mercado, who they had picked up off the Chiefs practice squad, I believe, is the RB2.
64:15So I just think Javante Williams early in the season when he's still priced down at $6,400 is just one of the
64:22clear best value running back plays here. All of the 6K running back pivots I was talking about earlier are all just
64:28kind of to get different off of Javante Williams.
64:31And you don't necessarily need to do that. I think he's a really, really strong play.
64:36Yeah, Javante is probably the top cash running back, I think, this week.
64:40And just maybe a little higher on Dallas' offense this week.
64:43But I'm not going to go into battle on drafts without George Pickens.
64:47This commander's secondary, like, I have just no respect for this defense.
64:51I don't think Dan Quinn is a very sharp head coach.
64:54Basically, I mean, he's been pretty bad without Micah Parsons or a really good pass rusher at any time.
65:00He's been a defensive coordinator in his career. This defense has really struggled.
65:04Basically, any way you split it on any downfield passing metric.
65:07Last two seasons on throws, 20 or more air yards down the field, according to Fantasy Points data.
65:13The commanders have given up the fifth most yards per route run.
65:16Only the Vikings, Steelers, Titans, and Cowboys have been worse on a per-route basis on throws of 20 more air yards.
65:23Yeah, Pickens is just way, way too cheap. He's my favorite play of the week over on DraftKings.
65:28Let's talk Seahawks and the Cardinals. Seahawks are going to go to Drew Locke this week.
65:33Sam Darnold has a weird injury. We got a report it was a hip.
65:38We got a report maybe it was a knee, and now it's his ass.
65:42I don't know what's going on. Seahawks and the Cardinals.
65:45Seahawks are four-and-a-half-point favorites. Total is 41-and-a-half. Seahawks, man, I mean, this is just an awesome team.
65:50Their defense is incredible. Cardinals have just an 18-and-a-half-point implied team total.
65:54Jacoby Brissett was one of the players that got very wrong last week.
65:58I did not – we didn't write him up.
66:00We didn't think the Cardinals had much of a chance to beat the Chargers, and they proved all of us dead wrong myself, especially.
66:08You know, this is just a really, really tough spot, though.
66:11Much, much more difficult defense against Seattle. Jake, I'll throw it to you for your thoughts on the Seahawks.
66:17And, man, can we get Jadarian Price on the field a little more?
66:21Yeah, that was sort of my thing with Seattle.
66:24I'm not super interested in this team, especially with all the value on the board elsewhere.
66:29But I think if I have interest in any Seahawks, it would be Jadarian Price because he looked so good last week,
66:35and the Seahawks are favored here, should lean on the run if they can try to hide Drew Locke a little bit.
66:42So I'll have some price exposure in GPPs. But, I mean, there are a ton of great running backs.
66:48I doubt, you know, in a 150 set I get to more than, say, 7-8% Jadarian Price.
66:53Yeah, that's basically the only way I'm playing Seahawks, too.
66:56JSN is obviously incredible. Drew Locke has been okay in his spot starts.
67:00He's one of the better backup quarterbacks, top five backup quarterback in football right now.
67:05But, yeah, I think there's just better receiver plays on the slate in his price range.
67:09Ryan, I'll throw to you for your thoughts on the Cardinals.
67:13It's just like I said, it's just a really tough spot.
67:16Like, Seattle's one of those defenses, kind of like the Broncos, where unless it's a really good offense, I'm just kind of off whoever they're playing.
67:24Yeah, the one way I'm playing the Cardinals and probably the one way I'm playing this game is just through Trey McBride.
67:31Because, yes, while he's priced up and there are a lot of good, cheaper tight end options on this slate, there is
67:38something to be said for the fact that he averages over 22 DraftKings points per game with Jacoby Brissett over the last two years.
67:45That would rank second best among all wide receivers on this slate.
67:49McBride priced up, but would only be priced as the wide receiver seven, if you just think of him like a wide receiver.
67:56So, in that sense, you can certainly argue that he's a value.
67:59It's a strong schematic matchup for McBride. The Seahawks tend to lean on zone coverage more than most other teams, and that's
68:06a nice boost for McBride, of course. I think the way I would play it, though, is through a mini stack.
68:12I would probably go Trey McBride and JSN, and yes, that's expensive, and you are really banking on the game environment being
68:19better than expected, but it gets you to some of the lesser-owned running back value.
68:24I think that's kind of an interesting way to start building.
68:27It's at least going to be something I have in mind, but that's really my only angle on this game and on the Cardinals.
68:34Yeah, it's just, you know, you never doubt Trey McBride.
68:37Dude rolls out of bed. He's going to get 26% of the targets.
68:41It's just what happens. It doesn't matter who the defense is.
68:45It doesn't matter what day of week it is.
68:47He's going to get his targets. Guys, let's finish off this awesome slate with the Dolphins and the 49ers.
68:5349ers not only are the biggest favorites on this 13-game slate, they also have the biggest implied point total at 29, 29.5.
69:00It's one of the best team outlooks we've got to start this season, and we have some consolidation here.
69:06Deshaun Stribling, unfortunately, is going on IR with an ankle injury.
69:09He needed surgery, as is Jake Tonjes. He's going to be on season-ending IR.
69:13He tore his MCL, unfortunately, over there in Australia.
69:16Jake, let's talk Miami first, though, man. Malik Willis is 5,200.
69:19He did not look particularly great in week one.
69:22You know, that was kind of the concern that he would kind of be like a Justin Fields-type player.
69:28I'm still banking on Malik Willis having more upside, better talent than Justin Fields.
69:32Obviously, the rushing was pretty good, but yeah, I mean, this offense kind of struggled in week one.
69:38The play volume was not very good. They're going to have to play a lot more high-paced, more volume this week to
69:45try and keep up with this 49ers passing offense in this entire scoring.
69:48What do you think of Miami here, man? What do you think of Malik Willis?
69:53Yeah, I mean, it sounds a little crazy to say, given their implied team total is under 16 points, but I really like Malik Willis this week.
70:01I'm not going to give up on a Scott Barrett Exodia one week into the season, particularly when it's a player like
70:08Malik Willis who has incredible rushing upside. Saw the 639 with one score rushing line last week.
70:13And I think, you know, you could argue that in certain game environments, Miami might try to hide Malik Willis and just,
70:20you know, run the ball, play it slow. This is not going to be one of those game environments.
70:26They're going to get down early and Malik Willis is going to have to drop back and throw.
70:31And, you know, on a fantasy point per drop back basis, Malik Willis is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
70:38I think, you know, going into the week, I was sort of wondering, how do I want to stack Malik Willis up?
70:45But the more that I looked into it, the more that I think Caleb Douglas at 3,700 is the obvious stacking partner.
70:51He's absurdly cheap, and he also finished week one with a 35% first read target share and 11.7 expected fantasy points.
70:58Both of those numbers rank top 30 among wide receivers.
71:01Caleb Douglas is priced as the wide receiver 70.
71:04He's actually popping as a top 10 value in our projections.
71:07So I really like playing the game through that.
71:10I also think another interesting angle with Willis is you can just play Malik Willis, load up on 49ers and sort of
71:16hope that Malik Willis gets you there in garbage time and outscores Purdy on a point per dollar basis.
71:22And then, you know, Devon Achan, Price is right at 6,700.
71:26The week one result wasn't great, but he did capture 95% of backfield expected fantasy points.
71:30That was the most of any week one running back.
71:34And, you know, this is a guy who leads all running backs over the last three seasons in explosive play rate.
71:40So any touch for Achan can go to the house.
71:43And I think he's another interesting sort of bring back option if you're stacking up the 49er side of this game.
71:49And there are a lot of fun ways to stack up the 49er side of this game.
71:55Yes, there are. That's my contrarian play on this slate, Jake.
71:58As you play Malik Willis with Devon Achan, then obviously you're going to bring it back with the 49er.
72:0449ers are definitely going to have a much improved defense this year.
72:07They just got slaughtered by injuries last year. Obviously, Fred Warner is, I mean, dude, he's always around the football.
72:14But this run defense might struggle a little bit.
72:16They gave up the six most yards before contact per attempt last week against the Rams.
72:21I like this spot quite a bit for Devon Achan.
72:24I don't think very few people are going to play Achan on this slate.
72:28I think Willis with Achan makes sense. And I got to give a shout out to our guy Steve O'Rourke.
72:35He's a big part of our fantasy points data team.
72:38He absolutely loved Caleb Douglas coming into this season as a prospect.
72:41And he looks absolutely incredible. Definitely looks like a decent value play.
72:45I think he's really the only receiver I would entertain, like Jake said, on this slate.
72:50So shout out to Steve. Looking like a huge hit there for Douglas.
72:54All right, Ryan, you get the very fortunate task of talking about the best team on this slate.
72:5949ers, like I said, 29 and a half implied point total.
73:03Brock Purdy, man, he's 6,200. I went into this week.
73:06I saw Brock Purdy at 6,200 on DraftKings on Monday.
73:09And I'm like, yeah, well, there's the cash quarterback.
73:12He's one of the best plays on the slate.
73:14And it's a super easy stack. As I noted at the top, we've got a consolidated pass catching group.
73:20What do you think of the Niners? Yeah, just if I forget anyone on the Niners, you guys got to let me
73:27know just because there's a lot to talk through here.
73:30But yeah, all of the options are just really awesome.
73:33I agree. Brock Purdy is the top quarterback play on the slate for me.
73:37Over his last five games, Purdy averages 25.1 DraftKings fantasy points per game.
73:41He's a top six quarterback in rushing yards per game on scrambles, like just extremely fantasy friendly, underratedly so, I would say.
73:48So Purdy, to me, is just a really, really great play.
73:51Only behind Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in fantasy points per opportunity among all quarterbacks since the start of 2024.
73:57Yeah, love Brock Purdy. You can stack him. You have a few different options.
74:02You have George Kittle at 4,600. Only ran 47% of the routes in week one.
74:06But a lot of his work was designed. He was the first read on a lot of them.
74:12On the first drive, he ran eight routes and got targeted four times.
74:16And then the usage kind of faded from there as the game became less and less competitive.
74:21And it was halfway around the world. So I think fair enough that Kittle was in a limited role in week one
74:28as he was coming back from his Achilles injury.
74:30But I do think there's a world where it's just like full steam ahead and George Kittle and something closer to a full time role this week.
74:39And that would make him an incredible, incredible tournament play priced where he is.
74:43So he's someone you have to account for this week.
74:46Even Mike Evans up at 6,600, I think, is one of the more compelling wide receiver plays in this range.
74:52The 49ers had 33 aimed pass attempts in week one.
74:55Nine of those were just screens and seven were Mike Evans targets.
74:59So in other words, half of the passing game was either screens or real targets to Mike Evans, like down the field.
75:05He looked amazing. 17.3 expected fantasy points would have ranked wide receiver seven.
75:09He also didn't have like quite a full time route share.
75:13But I do think I'm just kind of willing to look at that and say, hey, the 49ers suffered a bunch of
75:19injuries to their tertiary pieces on offense. Jake Conjus, Dejan Stribbling.
75:23I do think we could see just a more consolidated route share and workload for the top guys this week now that they are back stateside.
75:31So, yeah, playing pretty stacks through Evans and Kittle is going to be one of my favorite things to do on the slate.
75:38And, of course, they're 13 and a half point favorites.
75:41So we have to consider the running game here.
75:44Christian McCaffrey up at 8K. He averages over 27 DraftKings fantasy points per game in wins since the start of last season.
75:50Even in multi-score wins, like games that were not close, that goes up to 28 DraftKings points per game, despite his snap share coming down a bit.
75:59So at least for GPPs, I would agree that there's a wider range of outcomes for McCaffrey's workload after we saw Kalen Black very involved last week.
76:07But I think the upside is 100% still there that McCaffrey could consolidate most of the backfield.
76:12And even if he doesn't in this game environment, he could still nuke even on a 50% to 60% design carry share.
76:19So I think he's a really strong play. Maybe you look at Kalen Black if you really want a—or no, is Kalen Black on the injury report?
76:27That's my bad. I should have confirmed that before we started the show.
76:31But yeah, if you want to punt with the 49ers RB2, I think that might be okay.
76:36But I'd probably play it through McCaffrey. Yeah, that's the way I'm leaning as well.
76:41I'm not really putting a whole lot of stock in a game that they had to travel halfway across the world for.
76:47Yeah, Kalen Black, let's see here. Yeah, he is on the injury report with the groin injury.
76:53Popped up yesterday. He's limited practice. So keep an eye on that going into this weekend.
76:57We'll see if we get any further information on Kalen Black.
77:01Before we wrap up, I've got to say there's three things in life that are for sure.
77:06Death, taxes, and Mike Evans having a high average separation score.
77:09The dude was second in an ass last week.
77:12He's going to be a Hall of Famer. He's going to be enshrined in Canton here in five years, six years, whenever he decides to retire.
77:20Dude was incredible in week one. And I'm with Ryan.
77:23I think he's one of my favorite plays on this slate.
77:26I noted earlier George Pickens is my favorite play on DraftKings.
77:30Mike Evans is very, very close to being second in terms of tournament plays.
77:3449ers just in an incredible spot. Speaking of incredible, this has been an incredible show.
77:39Awesome show from myself, Jake, and Ryan. Again, you can catch all of our content here at Fantasy Points with a Fantasy Pro subscription.
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77:51All of our projections, our ownership projections, and our DFS optimizer all in one with the Fantasy Pro package.
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77:59Go to fantasypoints.com slash plans. Or if you're listening to us on YouTube, use the QR code on your screen right now.
78:06Fantasypoints.com slash plans. Fantasy Pro is the package. 10% off with code DFS.
78:10Week two. Let's do it. Let's see you guys at the top of the leader points.

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