PodcastFrom NFL DFS Deep Dive
BULLY Tight End Strategy vs Traditional Approach | Live Underdog Best Ball Draft Breakdown with Ryan Heath and Jakob Sanderson
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50 min
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Jun 30, 2026
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Tue, June 30, 2026
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Full transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Welcome back to the Best Ball Strategy Bible, the show where I, Ryan Heath, and my co-host Jakob Sanderson are going to
0:07break down all the team builds, all the approaches that you can use to win these best ball tournaments.
0:13This week, we're going to be doing something a little different, a little special.
0:17We're going to be talking about Bully Tight End.
0:20We're going to talk about how that can succeed, and then we're going to put a plan into action in a real draft for you guys.
0:29You can go get all of our projections, all of our best ball rankings, our entire best ball product over at FantasyPoints.com.
0:36The audio listeners of the show can use promo code DEEP26 for 10% off any package there at FantasyPoints.com.
0:42We have you covered with everything you need for best ball summer.
0:45So, Jakob, talk to me, man. Bully Tight End, it has been kind of like the favorite theoretical strategy to think about
0:52in terms of when it's actually worked. I'm not sure the results quite match the enthusiasm or the excitement of just thinking about it and talking about it.
1:01But, yeah, give me your thoughts on Bully Tight End.
1:05Can it work to draft multiple tight ends early in a best ball draft?
1:09Is it a decent strategy to have whatever you want to say, two of the first five tight ends that come off
1:16the board or as more extreme as you want?
1:19Just, yeah, give me your overall thoughts. So, I mean, the advance rates historically have been quite poor on this.
1:25And I think that that makes sense, right? In best ball, you start one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, and one tight end.
1:33Similar to how we talked through a couple weeks ago when we did double early quarterback in the discussion.
1:39You know, it's a very similar standpoint for the tight end.
1:43If you are going to spend two of your early picks on tight ends, that's one tight end that you can only play in the flex.
1:51It becomes a little bit more narrow. You're just not allocating points quite as efficiently.
1:56I would also say that for much of the historical data, tight ends were getting priced up for the positional scarcity element
2:03that they provide, where I think you are usually drafting the top tight ends in a range where they were not favored
2:10to outscore the wide receivers or the running backs that they're going beyond.
2:14That's changed, I think, in a pretty meaningful way the last couple of years.
2:18The tight end position has generally been priced down.
2:21Now, to the degree where I think throughout the draft, you can make a pretty compelling case that a lot of these
2:28tight ends have a reasonable chance or should even be favored to outscore at least the wide receivers that they're getting drafted right near.
2:36And if that's the case, you know, that you can consistently get that second tight end into the flex ahead of a
2:43wide receiver, you know, there's something to be said for that.
2:46The question becomes, though, is that where is the best bot to take advantage of that tight end?
2:52Because, you know, we did a late round tight end team recently on the show, and it really does continue for the
2:59whole stretch of the draft that tight ends continue to project well on a median basis.
3:04And obviously, if you're taking two of the earlier tight ends, you're foregoing that chance to get any of the late round
3:11tight end options, or you certainly should be foregoing any of those late round tight end options.
3:16So I think that's the push and pull is like if every tight end is a good pick, then how can any
3:23particular tight end or especially two early tight ends be a good pick?
3:28I think ideally, the way the scenario would work best is if you're able to get two strong tight end seasons so
3:35that you aren't, you know, killing your advance rate.
3:37And then you're able to sort of ping pong these massive weeks back and forth at a position where we have seen
3:44in the past tight ends can really separate from an advance rate perspective within playoff weeks.
3:49There was the Mark Andrews year a couple of years ago.
3:53There was a Sam Laporte year a couple of years ago where because it's a onesie position, because it's a lower scoring
4:00onesie position, if a tight end goes off for 28, almost everyone is advancing with that tight end.
4:06And if they go for three the next week, wouldn't it be fun to be the one team that had that stud tight end?
4:13And then you also have another ace up your sleeve.
4:16That's why I think it's theoretically tantalizing, even though it's not necessarily been that successful, at least from an advance rate perspective so far.
4:24Yeah, I really agree that the playoff differentiation is the most interesting thing about bully tight end.
4:29And we should really make a point of that, I think, when we're drafting.
4:34We haven't really discussed this much on the show so far, but just in terms of playoff schedule, I don't know if
4:41there's like easy stacks or whatever that we can do with a tight end and with other players we're going to be drafting.
4:48But we should probably give that piece of it a little bit more thought on this show than we might typically in other episodes.
4:56Yeah, just because I do think that the big advantage is just having a different advance path in the playoffs.
5:02Even if you are sacrificing on playoff advance rate, getting into the best ball playoffs kind of at the front end there.
5:09But honestly, for a few of the reasons you laid out, I'm not totally sure that you are sacrificing advance rate or
5:16that that will always necessarily be the case. Tight end is just a lower sample size position.
5:22There are fewer of them. They you start fewer of them in a lineup and advance rates every year are very heavily
5:29based on just who were the good picks, who scored a lot of points.
5:33It has so happened that there haven't been multiple like amazing early round tight ends in the last few years that best ball mania has existed.
5:41It's been like the kind of the downward arc of Travis Kelsey's career.
5:45So I think you can talk yourself into like if you're really into a lot of the tight ends that go kind
5:52of earlier in drafts and I am for a few of them.
5:56Yeah. Why not? Why could it not be two of them outscoring a lot of the wide receivers around them?
6:03And we have seen that at the wide receiver position this past year.
6:07We as we've discussed on other shows and both of us have discussed elsewhere, the wide receiver position got very, very flat
6:14after the top six or so players last year.
6:17Um, you can debate whether that's going to continue or whether it's due to changes in league personnel or pass rates or
6:24whether it's just randomness or what have you. But we at least saw the proof of concept that, yeah, wide receiver scoring could kind of flatten out.
6:32It maybe won't be as important to draft a wide receiver in as many rounds as possible in those early rounds.
6:39You can maybe get away with taking a second tight end.
6:42Uh, but yeah, the biggest thing for me, I think as we go into this is just going to be making sure
6:49that we're making that flex tight end count, right?
6:52Like we do not want to, uh, like overcommit to these flex positions because we want to draft a team in a
6:59way where we're actually getting an advantage from that second tight end in the flex.
7:04I don't want to then go and draft like five wide receivers that are all also going to be competing for that flex.
7:11Like I want to kind of think about drafting as if we're right, as if that early tight end is going to fill it every single time.
7:20Uh, so I'm interested to see how that'll play out.
7:23And yeah, give me any other thoughts and stuff that you want to make sure we're hitting on as we draft.
7:30Yeah, I think we see this every week where what we do in the show is kind of the opposite of what
7:37you do in drafts, which is to decide on a strategy before you actually execute it.
7:42But I think that's especially the case this year.
7:45I can say I've drafted more double early tight end teams this year than I probably ever have because there's just a
7:52few tight ends that I feel really strongly about, specifically Bowers and Loveland.
7:56And I don't know if we would count Laporta into the bully tight end conversation or not.
8:01We'll set our cutoff right before we hit draft.
8:04But those three are the ones that have really stood out to me.
8:08And sometimes I feel like I just get forced into it.
8:12We're like, I take Bowers, you know, pick 22 and Loveland's there at 46.
8:16I defer. He comes back to me at 50.
8:19I go, screw it. You know, I'm taking my guy here.
8:22I think once you've made that decision, you have to be very intentional about the way you build, like you said.
8:29Because one of your tight ends has to go in the flex, you want to be really balanced by how you handle your running backs and wide receivers.
8:38Like you definitely don't want to have like, you know, a three running back start in the first six rounds and a
8:45bully tight end build because you can't play that third running back and that second tight end together.
8:51So you've essentially spent one of your spots on a player that cannot play.
8:55Ditto for, you know, if you go four wide receivers particularly early.
8:59So I think you want to be as balanced as possible on running back and wide receivers.
9:04You construct your team with the idea that you're going to have a far higher percentage than usual of neither of those positions hitting the flex spot.
9:13And then you probably, you know, similarly to the issues we dealt with on the early quarterback team, you probably want to
9:20be if you're taking two at one onesie position really early in the draft, you're getting naturally pushed to probably a three quarterback team.
9:28It's coming a little bit later because you're going to have to find something to do with those late picks and want
9:35to make sure you're getting the running back and wide receiver stuff.
9:38Great. Well, we will load into a draft. We will see all of you in just a minute.
9:44Excited to get into this. All right. We are loaded into the draft room here.
9:49We are going to be drafting from the 108.
9:52And Jacob, I'm going to let you explain to the audience what we decided in terms of what is a bully tight end build?
9:59What rules are we actually holding ourselves to that we just confirmed off camera?
10:04So pretty simple rule here. We're going to take two tight ends in the first eight rounds come hell or high water.
10:11That is likely going to be two of Brock Bowers, who goes in the second.
10:16Trey McBride goes at the 2-3 turn. Colston Loveland goes late four.
10:19Tyler Warren goes in the mid six. Or Samuel Porta, who goes at the 8-9 turn.
10:24So we're going to try and construct a good team.
10:28So we're not going to try to reach crazy head ADP on these guys.
10:32But we will see how it folds. We're probably looking at two of those six.
10:37Yeah. So I guess with our first round pick, obviously we don't need to take a tight end.
10:43I think I'd prefer to go running back all else equal on a build like this.
10:48I'm not sure how you feel, but I just think if we're trying to be more balanced, there are fewer rounds and
10:55chances in pockets where I'm like, yeah, I really want to click a running back.
10:59Kind of after round two, round three, round four.
11:02So just getting ahead. I feel much the same.
11:05Yeah. I feel much the same. I mean, I think Bowers, if he's there at pick 17, would be a pretty nice start to this build.
11:13And then this gives us a chance to probably lock in Mr.
11:17Christian McCaffrey here. Yeah, let's do it. Yeah. Because I was thinking ideally, like if we're going to do this, McCaffrey in
11:24one, if we look at Bowers in two, unless there's something that falls to us, you know, and then I always like three and four.
11:32I usually prefer the wide receivers. I usually prefer the running back in five.
11:37So that's kind of how I was envisioning the start going.
11:40Perfect. Yeah. Hey, we've got the whole draft sketched out ahead of us now.
11:45Nothing could go wrong. We have the perfect plan from which we surely won't have to deviate.
11:50Do you have like a Christian McCaffrey take this year?
11:53I feel like he's such a hot topic in so many off seasons.
11:57I feel like no one's like fighting on either side of it now.
12:01Yeah, it's like a hard player to have a take on.
12:05Like we took him on our first main event on ship chasing and there was a decent back and forth argument on it.
12:12I mean, I'm less into him in I think he's like worse in many ways in the exact format we're drafting right
12:19now underdog than he is in redraft or he is especially in some of the other like redraft tournament formats.
12:26Just because you get a little bit less of the advantages of McCaffrey, which is on the weekly tournament advance structure.
12:32Like your median ceiling is a little bit less important compared to or your median projection, I should say, compared to like
12:39a sprint format where you're counting the whole three weeks or just a standard redraft.
12:44You're trying to beat one team. And it's obviously half PPR.
12:47Okay, we're up on the clock here. Um, so I'm gonna put Bowers in the queue.
12:53Would there be anyone you would take above Bowers?
12:55Like we have the fantasy points rankings locked in my personal rankings.
12:59I just have Bowers my highest ranked player anyway.
13:02Yeah, I mean, I would have Brown and Henry ahead of Bowers personally, too.
13:07But I think for this show, it's totally fine to take Bowers here.
13:11I yeah, it just sets up our build. Well, lets us be a little more flexible in the coming rounds.
13:17So I I like this and McCaffrey Bowers is a kind of a fun pairing.
13:22So it's good to I I'm not a believer that you have to draft like especially in rounds one and two like
13:29super off of or like strictly off of rankings in that way.
13:33Like I want to get different combinations in a tournament format, especially a multi entry tournament format.
13:38So yeah, just switching it up, pulling Bowers up a little bit is really fun.
13:43And he's one that I that I like will often just pull up into like the early second just because a I
13:50think you could argue for him to go there and be it's just yeah, a little bit more unique.
13:56Not not as many of the elite tight ends going on that side of the board.
14:01So I think that's fine. Right. I think that's a key thing with him and McBride both going at the opposite turn.
14:08I think there are opportunities and legitimate reasons to pull him up to the other side of the board, because if he
14:15is dominant piece, you know, like because there are so few top tight ends, unlike running backs and wide receivers, like the
14:22elite tight ends do have a tendency to either be like the most dominant piece in the course of a year or
14:29like an absolute suck on your advance rates. Like it's they often really can flare out in both directions because you really build your team around that player.
14:38And if you're drafting Bowers, obviously, you're assuming and hoping that it's the positive outcome.
14:42And so the idea of like, well, what if I pair him with Jefferson or what if I pair him with McCaffrey,
14:49you know, players that he's less commonly being paired with compared to a B.
14:54John or a Gibbs or a chase? I think there's a lot of merit to that.
14:59So if McBride had lasted two more spots, we would have potentially had the chance at the ultimate the mega bully tight end team.
15:07So we come back up here. I know some of my personal favorites here are probably T, Zay, Olave, Garrett.
15:13I know you're a big Lad McConkie person. Chris Olave is in the mix here.
15:18Do you have a preference? T would be my preference.
15:21I've been making clear to everyone that T Higgins is my line in the sand, that I will not draft Lad McConkie
15:28over T Higgins, no matter how much I like Lad or how many positive arguments I make for him.
15:34That's a bridge too far for me. So, yeah, I like starting that here.
15:38We keep it balanced. Yeah, this is a really good start to this.
15:43Strongly in support of that. If you want to read more on T Higgins, I featured him in a recent article.
15:49I did profiles into five what I call unsexy players that I'm above 20% exposure on right now in my best ball drafts.
15:57And T Higgins was the first name I hit on there.
16:00The part about T is even ahead of the paywall.
16:03So you can check that out on Thinking About Thinking.
16:06Yeah, I've been a fan of him. I've had a lot of the wide receivers in this 3-4 range, honestly.
16:13And pretty out on the resurgent dead zone running back price.
16:16I know this is not a running back-based episode, but I'm curious if you have more thoughts on that.
16:22Like, the Javante profile feels like the profile that for the last couple of years was falling into round five, round six.
16:29And people are correctly saying like, hey, you know, you can't just fade these dead zone backs blindly.
16:35Different prices now. Now we're just back up to the old prices.
16:39Anyway, we're back up now. I think we go running back or receiver here.
16:43For receiver, I'd be looking at Waddle or Burden.
16:46Running back, Jacobs or Scadaboo. We have four seconds.
16:49I go with Jacobs here. I'm good with Jacobs here.
16:52That works. Yeah, I mean, I guess to expand on your thoughts on like the dead zone running back stuff.
16:59I largely agree. I think there's been maybe a little bit of an overcorrection in terms of like the pure volume, like workhorse profile.
17:06Where we're maybe not super into the talent or the explosive play rate.
17:10But like we know they're going to get a bunch of goal line touches and a bunch of carries.
17:16And people argue about the pass catching upside. That describes like every running back that goes in this range.
17:22Jacobs included, I guess. To me, he was like before kind of the off field uncertainty stuff.
17:28He was like at the top of that tier for me that I would bite the bullet in terms of, oh, if
17:35I need to make a construction work. And I messed up and didn't draft a running back in the first two rounds.
17:42Like Jacobs is fine enough. He's actually been like a top six running back by expected fantasy points per game, by fantasy
17:49points per game through different stretches of his career.
17:52Like I just am very confident that the team is kind of happy to feed him in that way and operate in that way.
17:59So he was always like my favorite of that profile, even if I didn't love that profile.
18:05And yeah, now that he's falling into round four, I think I'm just pretty happy to take that discount personally.
18:11I don't know about you if you're still just totally out on a Jacobs.
18:15But yeah, I'm not into the Javante. I mean, I wasn't as out on Jacobs as much as like Javante.
18:22Like Jacobs has been established for a long time.
18:25I mean, he was going in round two before all the legal stuff.
18:29And like, yeah, I mean, I think with him, you're just guessing like is the legal stuff going to be an issue or not?
18:36And like it's so unpredictable. I don't really know.
18:39But I'm ranked in and around the mid four.
18:42I've been fine to nab a few shares. In this range where he falls to.
18:47So we're sitting now at a 2-1-1. So this is where I would push for a wide receiver like we talked about,
18:54because if we draft that third running back now, we're never going to start whatever tight end we draft and that third running back.
19:01So I would look at Christian Watson. I know you're a Christian Watson person.
19:06I don't expect you to push back on this.
19:09Yeah, twist my arm. Why don't you? Don't have to ask me twice.
19:13We should think about like I feel like the bully tight end plus like an early quarterback could be interesting just because
19:20we have in theory it's fewer flex spots. I guess it's another wide receiver spot.
19:25But yeah, I mean, we're going to we're going to run out of picks here pretty soon.
19:30Yeah. So I mean, we basically one of these quarterbacks to we're going to have our next pick is lined up pretty much right on Warren's ADP.
19:39I think like to do this faithfully, I would prefer that to reaching a half around on Sam Laporta.
19:45So I'm going to leave this up to the draft.
19:48If they take Tyler Warren from us, we're going to have to get our second tight end in the eighth.
19:54But I think, you know, given given the theme of this episode, if Warren is available to us pretty much dead on
20:01his ADP, we should probably go and snap that up.
20:04Yeah. Yeah, I would tend to agree. I guess we should both give like our Tyler Warren takes.
20:10I feel like that's another player in sort of light Christian McCaffrey that there's not like that much back and forth on that.
20:17I feel like he's not like I don't know where he falls on the slaps, the slaps this, but it's I didn't
20:24I didn't even you know what your point. I didn't even put him on this on this flat slaps.
20:30Yeah. So like he's so he's so like not talked about that.
20:34You didn't even think to put it on put him on the slaps this.
20:39Yeah, I feel like there's just not that wide a range of opinions on him.
20:44But I mean, in theory. Oh, there he goes.
20:46Brutal. Guess it doesn't matter. There he goes. Yeah.
20:49All right. So I think probably the your options would be a Drake may stacked or sorry, Joe Burrow.
20:55I meant stacked or we look at like Brian Thomas.
20:58Let's go Burrow. Burrow. All right. But yeah, with Tyler Warren, I think I'm generally positive on him.
21:04A lot of the takes I've had like kind of should lead you to him like my insistence and annoyance that everyone's
21:11just like treated the cult's offense as if it will be good when we're talking about Jonathan Taylor.
21:17But we're just we just don't care that Daniel Jones or any of his pass catchers were the among the most productive units until he got injured.
21:25Like I feel like that perfectly maps on to, oh, I should be super into Tyler Warren.
21:31But yeah, there's just something something about him that is like, are we already bored with Tyler Warren?
21:37Are we do it? Is there just not a desire to go out on a limb with with our Tyler?
21:43Tyler Warren takes it's like an thing. I mean, every the Colts are a team that is like made me think that
21:50I would have less strong takes on every team if I cared about them as much as the Colts, because I feel
21:57like every time I'm asked about the Colts, I wind up saying like a few contradictory things.
22:02My overall arching take on their passing game is that I am sure they would like Alec Pierce to be more of an intermediate threat.
22:10I don't think that's his game. I don't think it's what's best for the offense.
22:15I don't think it's what's best for Pierce. I think he's an outstanding downfield receiver who has some serious limitations in areas
22:22of the field where Warren and Downs are better.
22:25And it just makes more sense for the offense to allocate more of Pittman's intermediate work to Downs and to Warren than
22:32it does to try and force Pierce into something that he's not to justify a contract.
22:37I think he can, you know, be what he is, which is an excellent downfield receiver.
22:42I think what we saw last year, and there's been a bunch of different splits that people have posted about it and
22:49why that was the case that Warren had this slow end to the year where there was rivers, there was about personnel groupings.
22:56I think it's just as simple as Warren in year one was a really good player, but not a super refined route
23:03runner in the way that like a Colston Loveland came out of college as.
23:08And so I think his skill set is more similar to like a Tucker crafts and that it works really, really well
23:15off the run game, getting him into space. But if you're in dropback mode, like he's probably not your primary option to just go and win a route.
23:24And so I think as the Colts got worse, it hurt him the most because they were less frequently getting to play off the run game.
23:32I think that he was a rookie and he was really good as a rookie.
23:37So would it surprise me if he developed into a better all around receiving threat this year?
23:42Like not at all. I'll finish the other half of my Colts receiving group take after this pick because we're about to come on.
23:50Oh my God, the top players out appears for not taking him.
23:54Um, so let's see. Um, I mean here, so craft is another potential option here.
23:58We already have a big green Bay stack set up.
24:01Um, we've committed to bully tight end. So should we just go ahead and take craft here or do we want to push it?
24:09And then, all right, let's do craft here. Yeah.
24:12Do craft easily add love to this in a little bit.
24:15That's that's kind of, yeah, I like, so our next pick, I think probably should be a receiver now.
24:22Um, so let's, so I would look, well, I don't know how many Green Bay guys you want on one team, but I'll put Reid in the queue.
24:30Put Addison in the queue. Um, I'll put Downs into the queue.
24:34Myers. Are there any other receivers down the board you'd like to bring up in this area or?
24:40Not really. I think those four are good to consider.
24:43Uh, I think I've been, I've been convinced negatively on Jordan Addison recently.
24:47Uh, Zane Danani, who, uh, is going to have a really cool article coming out about route depth.
24:53Uh, highlighted Jordan Addison as a guy who just over his career, he's gone more and more and more into these deeper
25:00and deeper routes with every season of his career.
25:03That's passed. You have, uh, Jalen Naylor leaving. Jawan Jennings showing up as a little bit more of like a short intermediate threat.
25:10And even in best ball, these super high route depth players just don't even have these spike weeks as often as you would expect.
25:18Compared to the more short and intermediate guys, which was a interesting counterintuitive finding.
25:22Uh, and yeah, Addison was one of like the poster boys of his analysis there.
25:27And that, that was pretty interesting and somewhat convincing to me.
25:30So yeah, I, I will, I'll probably be fading Jordan Addison.
25:34Uh, not that I need that much convincing to draft Josh Downs or some of these other receivers that go around him anyway.
25:41Uh, but yeah, that was a cool tidbit. I thought I would share.
25:45That is cool. Um, so Reed goes off the board.
25:49We don't get to, to, oh man. And then downs goes off the board.
25:53So now all of a sudden the highest ranked, uh, wide receiver by both the fantasy points and, uh, ADP.
25:59And I think my rankings as well, Jordan Addison, I'll, I'll throw Chris Godwin into the conversation.
26:05He's a little lower in the fantasy points rankings.
26:08I haven't ranked. He would be my highest ranked if the guys were meaning.
26:12I'd buy him with Myers as well. Um, I'll let you pick between those two.
26:17I don't, I don't have super strong feelings. I'll go with Chris Godwin.
26:21Um, I've been higher on him, I guess, than the, the rest of the fantasy points team.
26:26Um, I, I'm part of this is just my Buka skepticism.
26:30Um, and so I, I still think there's like a, a pretty firmly non-zero chance that Godwin is the, the wide receiver
26:37one of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year. Um, and, and also a large part of it is just my extreme Jalen McMillan skepticism.
26:45I, I don't really have much faith in him.
26:47So I feel pretty good about Godwin being at least the number two there.
26:52Um, I was talking about the Colts. Um, the other thing I, I, I've seen.
26:57So that's the bull case for Warren, um, that I kind of made before.
27:01I think him and Downs are your best intermediate option still.
27:05Pittman's gone. Um, you know, I, hopefully the team will have more success this year, um, than they certainly did at the
27:12end of the season, um, with Phillip Rivers. And you get this rookie improving, you know, maybe to round out his game.
27:19I think the, it's not even as much a downside for Warren, but it would be a refutation of what I have
27:26seen as a inadequate case for Warren. Which is, I've seen a lot of people saying, well, if Downs doesn't play in
27:3312 personnel, you know, then Warren's going to catch all of the balls.
27:37And like, that is probably true. I think Warren will have an outrageous target rate in 12 personnel this year if Downs doesn't play in those sets.
27:45But I guess what I would say is I just, I don't think that Shane Steichen is a total dumbass.
27:52And it would just honestly shock me if Shane Steichen, his plan for this season was to run like 35% of his
27:59pass plays with a skill group of Ashton Doolin, Drew Ogletree, Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce.
28:03Like that just doesn't comport for me. So I expect that we will either see Downs playing on a lot of 12
28:10personnel reps, or they will revert to what they were in 2024, which was a extremely high rate of 11 personnel passing offense.
28:18Like, I don't know exactly which one of those things is going to happen, but I think that they're going to get
28:25Josh Downs on the field for 80% of the routes without Michael Pittman available.
28:29I just don't see how that's viable to have a 12 personnel package this year without Downs.
28:34We are basically swapping Pittman for one of Nick Westbrook, Akine or Ashton Doolin.
28:39Ein perfekter Frühlingstag. Sonne. Park. Picknick. Und so viele Pollen.
28:42Shop Apotheke sagt Tschüss Allergie und Hallo Frühling. Hier findest du alles, um unbeschwert durch die Allergiezeit zu kommen.
28:48Als Neukunde sparst du sogar 10% ab 35 Euro Bestellwert.
28:51Mit dem Code NEU10. Du hast ein E-Rezept? Einfach Shop Apotheke App runterladen und direkt einlösen.
28:56Gutscheinbedingungen auf shop-apotheke.com slash Gutscheine. Um, so we're back up here.
29:00I'll throw Jordan Love in the queue. Um, Love probably makes it to our next round, but, um, do you want to just do it now?
29:08I almost, yeah, I almost don't want to risk it.
29:11Yeah, that sounds like a plan to me. Especially there's a Jaden Reed team that's in between our two picks, so I
29:18could easily see them going Jaden Reed's direction. Yeah, we're just so bought into Packers.
29:23We have our quarterback set. We have our tight ends set.
29:27Maybe we could add a third very late quarterback, like maybe Mendoza for Bowers or something.
29:32Otherwise, we're pretty much going to be cranking out running backs and receivers for the remainder of this draft.
29:38Uh, if you're listening to this on audio, our team right now is Joe Burrow and Jordan Love.
29:43Brock Bowers and Tucker Craft as part of our bully tight end approach.
29:48Running backs, Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs. And wide receivers were a little thin.
29:52We're going to, we're going to work on that in this range right here with a lot of wide receivers I like.
29:59Uh, are T Higgins, Christian Watson, and Chris Gottman.
30:02Nice. Yeah, definitely add to the receiver. Or, yeah, I guess.
30:05Um, I don't mind the idea of Wandale Robinson here.
30:08I feel like I lose sleep at night over the number of targets Wandale Robinson is just going to end up with this year.
30:16Not, not, not in like a positive way, but like, why would we not just flip the page over and see him
30:23getting hyper-targeted again in a day ball offense? Like these are just the nightmares that I am kind of stuck with.
30:30But I'll leave you with that and you can make the pick here.
30:34Great. Great. I'll take Casey Concepcion. Yeah. Honestly, probably the correct decision.
30:37But yeah, it's just, I, I swear I have Wandale Robinson stress dreams that I, yeah, we got, we should defeat those by, by not drafting him.
30:46Uh, I mean, I don't hate Wandale in a vacuum.
30:49Like, I like him more than Dubs. Um, I definitely, I draft him ahead of the next group of wide receivers like that.
30:57Shakir, Coke, or Shahid group that I also kind of like.
31:00So I'm not super anti-Wandale. Um, it's more to me pro Casey Concepcion.
31:04I, I think this is, he's not as good of a prospect as Garrett Wilson.
31:09So it's not a one-on-one comparison, but it is like the closest thing that we've gotten since the insane Garrett Wilson round
31:1611 ADP back in 2022 as a rookie where you have a, a wide receiver who not only has round one draft
31:23capital, but like he doesn't have round one draft capital the way that, uh, you know, Xavier Lee get had round one
31:30draft capital or even Omar Cooper has round one draft capital.
31:33Like this is, this is a legitimate round one analytical profile that also gets the round one draft capital.
31:39And goes to a spot where he has a very plausible chance to be the number one pass catcher on his team this year.
31:47Like, I think you could draw a lot of parallels in fact, between like, even though they play a different positions, um,
31:54Harold Fannin and Elijah Moore, if you wanted to, who was kind of the, the highest drafted jet that year, but was,
32:01you know, kind of an analytical darling overperformed a little bit to expectations in this really weak receiving room.
32:07And then Wilson came in as the higher pedigree player and pretty immediately took over as the number one.
32:13Um, obviously the quarterback situation is terrible, but like, we just don't usually get rookie wide receivers at this type of price with this type of pedigree anymore.
32:22I'm shocked that the market is letting us have that.
32:25So I, I, he's like one of the best clicks on the whole board to me.
32:30Um, and I'm also a huge Todd Mongan stand.
32:33So I, I expect that this past game will look not good by any stretch.
32:38They're going to start Shadur or Deshaun Watson, but like, I don't know.
32:42I think it'll be a little bit more competent than we think.
32:46I had a similar take last year about the saints where I was drafting a lot of Chris Alave and I was
32:53like, it's not, I was shocked that Tyler shot clocked as good as he did, but I wasn't that surprised that Kellen
33:00Moore was able to like manufacture something of a floor.
33:03Um, all right. I'm fully out of running backs.
33:06I have interest in here. So I would, I would be Shakir or we don't probably need to go Cooper yet.
33:13I'd be Shakir or Coker. You can have this.
33:15Yeah. Shakir works for me. Okay. Um, I, I did want to add on the, yeah, just on the Browns passing game.
33:22Uh, I came to kind of a similar conclusion where my guys, I I've been teasing my play callers article for like close to a month.
33:31Now it feels like it's coming soon. I promise after July 4th, sometime very soon it will be out.
33:37Uh, but yeah, I came to a similar realization.
33:40Um, just writing up the Browns and Todd Munkin.
33:42It's like, man, Munkin just leads the NFL in like, yeah, he had Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry, but in every efficiency
33:49stat for the last five years, among all active play callers, like it, this guy is probably a, a pretty competent NFL play caller.
33:57There's like a decent chance that the Browns are just better than the expectation, which is completely awful and unviable for fantasy.
34:04And yeah, I came to the same conclusion that it, if the Browns are like surprisingly frisky or kind of okay, or
34:11just have enough volume in the past game or whatever to support something.
34:15Then yeah, Concepcion is just the obvious conclusion there where he is cheap enough that it, the cost is not like prohibitive.
34:22Uh, as I might argue it would be with a Quinn Sean Judkins that you're giving up, uh, some other like exciting
34:29running back profiles for like, I really think if you just want to have like, uh, I believe in Todd Munkin type
34:36of bet, then Concepcion makes by far the most sense to just kind of lay down there.
34:42Can you speak to the fantasy points rankings, having JCM ranked 37 spots behind ADP?
34:46Uh, yeah. I mean, we're big Rashad white people and you have to put the work.
34:51Are you? Cause you have Rashad white. You don't even have Rashad white that high.
34:56Come on. Oh, I thought we did. Um, I, I'm a big Rashad white person.
35:01I, yeah, I thought we were. You ever shot white high is that.
35:05All right. So we're going to go running back.
35:08Yeah. I think we, I think we got to go running back here because we, we got to get, we got to
35:15get a third eventually unless we want to take Hunter or Cooper's fine.
35:19If we don't hate any of these running backs, but Keaton Pacheco marks Keaton works for me.
35:24Let's switch it up. I feel like I always push us to, to take Pacheco, but we can, we can do Keaton.
35:31Yeah. I don't mind that case either. Pacheco, I think is like my number one source of disagreement with the fantasy points industrial complex.
35:39Um, I have not clicked that guy once, but I, but I've clicked him, I think on half of my drafts with you.
35:46I just like, I'm so convinced James Connor is going to be their RB two in week one.
35:52I have like, I've like had, it's like based on nothing except for like a coach correlation.
35:57Um, but like, this is just like a fan fiction that has played out in my head that I decided was going
36:04to be the case as soon as they drafted Jeremiah love.
36:08And I'm, I'm sticking to it until it's turned out not to be true because if it, if it is true, I'll
36:15be like Babe Ruth calling my shot. I will say like, I, not that I'm going to tell Chris, we need to
36:22change the projections or that we're going to change the rankings because of, yeah, of a specific like site post training camp signing combination like that.
36:30Uh, but when you first said that to me, I was like, damn, that, that would kind of make sense.
36:37And that would be major egg on my face.
36:39Uh, I, I don't know. Yeah. I, Connor is a weird one.
36:43He, I, uh, I was scheduling some tweets for the fantasy points data account this morning.
36:48And a fun piece of trivia is that Connor is one of only six running backs the past five years with a
36:55positive EPA pro rush attempt average, uh, since 2021.
36:58It's like him, HN, uh, Gibbs, Henry, James cook and JK Dobbins.
37:02Who's also like kind of a fun bit of trivia, uh, on that stat.
37:06But yeah, James, James Connor was so good, man.
37:09And I, yeah, maybe he's not just totally washed.
37:12Maybe another team will seek out. Well, you know, it's totally washed Isaiah for check.
37:17I don't know, man. He's like, he's been playing through injury.
37:20He was a little bit better at the end of last year.
37:24Like we might end up getting him here anyways, cause cause he's, he's not available at our, our two rounds ahead of ADP ranking.
37:32But Oh, thank. Oh no. He just goes. Yeah.
37:35That's a massive, that's, that hurts. Uh, so we're, we're three and five.
37:39I think we could probably go equally running back or receiver here.
37:43All do you have a, do you have a preference from who's on the board?
37:47I have not really, but you can take, all right, I'm going to, I'm just going to go ahead and take, I'm
37:54going to go ahead and take Spears then here, and then we can take a wide receiver at the next, uh, do
38:01any of these wide receivers speak to you? Um, Travis Hunter, Antonio Williams, Debo Samuel, Ryan Flournoy, Trey Tucker, Denzel Boston.
38:08Okay. Trey Tucker has started speaking to me recently.
38:11Uh, this is a new, this is a new development.
38:14I was like rewheeling out the, the, yeah, the, I, I was wanting to re up the, okay, who's going to be
38:21the deep play action guy for Clint Kubiak, uh, like type of question and analysis that I famously used to tout Torrey
38:28Horton instead of JSN last year in the, in the dumbest thing I've ever done in my fantasy career.
38:34Like Tucker goes, but I still want to hear your take.
38:38Goddamn, like got right up to the answer and just pit, you know, picked the Torrey Horton instead of the good player.
38:45Uh, but so I, this is not to say that I'm like not drafting Bowers or whatever, any other Raider, because like
38:52I'm blindering on Trey Tucker, but frigging Jalen Naylor, man, really like Tucker actually has been somewhat productive through like the first three years of his NFL career.
39:01Jalen Naylor had, I believe has never hit 30 receptions.
39:04I think it is the stat like, yeah, cool.
39:07He's at the top of average separation score, but the, the record of guys at the top of separation metrics that never
39:14command targets in any meaningful way through several years of their career is not like amazing.
39:19I talk like Tucker's actually shown progression, like in each year of his career.
39:23Like I just think it's way more likely that Tucker is the one that's a playing more, uh, just from like reading
39:30the tea leaves of Raiders beat reports. It sounds like he's clearly like the most favored veteran, the most favored guy in that receiving room.
39:38And I think there's a very good chance. He's just, I think he's probably better than Jalen Naylor guys.
39:44So he's the horse I'm backing. I know that that's like very anti-slappy or whatever.
39:49Uh, but he kind of was convinced on him.
39:52So we got two picks here. Um, probably receiver, uh, or one pick here.
39:56I I'd be, I'm equally happy with Williams or Samuel, or if you want to make the case for any of these
40:03guys further down, we can go Williams. Yeah. Okay.
40:06So we get a little bit of, yep. We've got a second rookie into the mix.
40:11I've been growing more and more on Williams. He was like, I think my most drafted player in pre-draft contests.
40:17Um, and then he skyrocketed up the board, but every single time Brandon Iyukos on social media, my Antonio Williams ranking moves up two spots.
40:25Um, cause like if, if this is just the depth chart, if it's just, if it's just McLaurin, Traylon Burks, Antonio Williams,
40:32Deami Brown, Luke McCaffrey, Van Jefferson, like if that's their wide receiver group, then I'm, I'm backing Antonio Williams winning the wide
40:39receiver two role in that wide receiver room. Um, my issue is I I've been kind of baking in that Brandon Iyukos
40:46is going to be their eventual wide receiver too.
40:49And maybe if it's not Iyuk, maybe they eventually bring Debo back or they sign digs or something.
40:55Uh, that's totally plausible. But if, if the chances are increasing that Williams just gets to be the number two, then I think he's pretty mispriced.
41:03Um, so, and I liked him a little bit as a prospect.
41:07So I'm, I'm warming on him pretty aggressively every time, every time we get a Brandon Iyuk notification.
41:13Yeah. I he's, so he doesn't have an agent now, right?
41:16That's like the latest. He just posts something crazy on social media every week.
41:21I think even if he does sign with the commanders, like what, what is the expectation really?
41:26Like Brandon Iyuk was a really, really good NFL wide receiver a couple of years ago.
41:31But now I think there's a legitimate question that even if he does sign, like how immediately integrated is he going to be in the offense?
41:39Like how seriously is he going to be in their plans?
41:43Uh, obviously like the, yeah, the, the compensation and the money and all of that will partially determine everyone's takes on it.
41:50But I think it's, it's totally possible he does sign.
41:53And also he's not like a guy they're super relying on or that, that that's like what the, um, the plan that's
42:00being projected by how it turns out is, is I guess what I'm saying.
42:05That makes sense. Yeah. We're back on the clock.
42:07We're here. Um, we're back on the clock. We're going to get back to the Q view.
42:13Um, Mendoza is gone. So I love Samson. So let's do that.
42:17We're going to, we're just keeping our rounding out our bet on the Browns.
42:21Um, so I mean, maybe, maybe we, maybe we take, uh, if you take the Sean on this team, who knows, um,
42:28we don't really need a third quarterback. If Mendoza had fallen to us, I think it would have been worthwhile to stack
42:35up with Bowers, but I don't think it's necessary unless you want to do like literally around 18 to Sean or something with Samson and Concepcion.
42:43We're at two, five, six, two right now. Assuming we don't get their quarterback, we could probably do a two, six, eight, two.
42:51Um, anyone screaming out to you here in the late rounds?
42:54You've been on the spot before. I like Jeremy here.
42:57I like Wicks here. Um, any, any passion projects for you in the late rounds?
43:02Yeah. I mean, Wicks is the closest thing to that still.
43:06He's, I, I just keep expecting his, like him to become, to like get steamed, but he, he really hasn't.
43:12He's just kind of been here the whole off season.
43:15Uh, but yeah, I really like him. I, the, the Sean Mannion connection, uh, Dontavian Wicks average more yards per route run
43:22on horizontally breaking routes than AJ Brown did last year.
43:25Uh, nice. My, my extremely, extremely specific, but fun stat of the day on Dontavian Wicks.
43:30So yeah, that's good stuff. Um, have you considered drafting?
43:33Like, um, we're doing a favorite stacks article for ship chasing or ADP chasing tomorrow.
43:38And our producer sent around like a questionnaire that got me thinking about this of like, where are you drawing the line
43:45on quarterbacks you're willing to draft, even if it's stacked.
43:48And it's like, obviously I would draft Rogers. I draft Gino, I draft Mendoza.
43:53Like if, if you have the stack set up, like we do in this case, like, are you willing to draft a Watson or a Sanders?
44:01Are you willing to draft a Falcons quarterback? Are you willing to draft a Cardinals quarterback?
44:06Where, where does your line hit on draftable versus undraftable at the quarterback position with stacks?
44:11That's a good question. Uh, Cardinals are tricky because that's one where you don't, I don't know who it is.
44:18I don't know if it's per set or Minshew that starts more games this year.
44:22I'll be totally real, but I, but I'm intrigued by the prospect of whoever the Cardinal starting quarterback is.
44:28We've seen, I think back probably starts the most games.
44:32Oh yeah. Yeah. I guess fair enough. Or at least maybe not the most games, but I think he's the most likely
44:39to start the week 15 through 17. Yeah. Yeah.
44:41That's fair. So yeah, it probably doesn't work in this form in this format, I guess.
44:47Uh, I was going to have a take about how Michael Fleur let Joe Flacco and Mike white do a ton of fun garbage time stuff.
44:55Uh, but I, I guess there's not really a way to take advantage of that in BBM.
45:00Um, let's talk about first. Um, well, I mean you guys with your, with your, you're such a low ranking on JCM.
45:07I didn't even see him come up when we were sitting on two running backs.
45:12So I felt like we almost have to take fat man.
45:16Um, since we've, we've decided to defer JCM that gets us up to two, six, seven, two.
45:21Um, I think our last pick should be a wide receiver or if we want to take, uh, the Browns quarterback.
45:28Um, so this will, this will be my way of getting you to answer the question of, do you think Browns quarterbacks draftable or not?
45:36Uh, I, I honestly don't think so. I, yeah, I can't do it with the Browns.
45:41I don't think, or at least I'd, I'd much rather have Jalen Noel.
45:45I'd much rather have, uh, yeah, like a lot of these round 18 ass guys.
45:50I've, I've, I've, I've been into Christian Kirk. I've, you recoiled when I said that a week or two ago.
45:56Well, we might give you your Kirk this time if you want one.
46:00Uh, there's been a lot of noise on Keenan Allen signing potentially too.
46:04That is interesting. Oddly more news on him. It seems more, he's been in more discussions and Debo and digs lately.
46:11Uh, Noel, I agree. I like Bateman is a lot around 18 routes.
46:15Brazzles a day to rookie with a path of starting.
46:18Uh, there's a bunch of guys you can make a case for here.
46:22Um, yeah, I'll, I'll give you your Kirk if you want it.
46:26Is that what you want or, um, someone else?
46:29So I, I'd take Noel if we can get him because that's a week 17 stack with the Packers.
46:35Uh, and I, perfect teased before the show that we should talk about, uh, playoff stacking more on, on the tight end
46:42episode where the whole point is playoff unique playoff advanced pads.
46:45Uh, so there, there's your little, yeah, your little extra.
46:49Well, how about here's, here's our show for next week.
46:52How about we make a rule that we'll set a minimum number of players that all have to play against each other in week, um, 17.
47:00Yes. I love that. We'll do like, well, we won't pick all 18 because that's a little bit boxing in, but let's pick like 16 or something.
47:09Um, like something kind of absurdly high. Um, yeah.
47:11Like I'm going to have to have a spreadsheet.
47:14Yeah. I'll have to have a spreadsheet in front of me to make sure we're keeping track of it frantically the entire time.
47:22There will, there will be no other discussion on any players other than trying to like make that work for every single pack.
47:29Yeah. That sounds like a lot of fun. Uh, and I got to say guys, uh, down in the comments, if you
47:36have other ideas or strategies that you want us to talk about or to, yeah, to do in drafts, please, please tell us.
47:43Cause we, we are open to ideas. We're going to be, uh, doing a lot more shows for the rest of the summer.
47:51So excited to spend more time drafting with Jacob, more time drafting with all of you guys, but yeah, that's going to be it for this draft.
47:59We can review the team really quickly and see if we think we succeeded in our, uh, bully tight end strategy.
48:06Uh, and then we can get out of here.
48:09So yeah, let's, uh, scroll through the team quickly.
48:12So team is a quarterback, Joe Burrow and Jordan Love.
48:15Uh, we also only had two tight ends, Brock Bowers and Tucker craft as our bully tight ends, two of the top
48:22five in ADP running back room is headlined by Christian McCaffrey and Josh Jacobs.
48:26Uh, and then we didn't go back to running back all the way until round 13 with Keaton Mitchell, Ty J Spears, Dylan Samson, and Katron Allen.
48:35Uh, the wide receiver room is T Higgins, Christian Watson, Chris Godwin, Casey Concepcion, Khalil Shakir, Antonio Williams, Dontavian Wicks, and Jalen Noel.
48:42Yeah, I like this. I think we did a good job in terms of making sure that Tucker craft is actually going
48:49to get into the flex a decent amount first off.
48:52Uh, so that that's helpful. It was, I think it was also good to limit it to two quarterbacks.
48:58Um, just because like, yeah, you just have more ways to fill out the end of your bench, like yet, as you
49:05kind of naturally want to, when you're waiting longer on these running backs and wide receivers, maybe those are like two sort of opposing points.
49:13But I think, uh, hopefully you or the viewers understand what I'm saying there.
49:18Um, yeah. Any other takeaways from here or can we get out of here?
49:22No, I think I'm good for today. Um, yeah.
49:25Enjoy this. Um, check out our dynasty points episode.
49:28We just recorded one. That'll be out. Uh, or nevermind.
49:31We did not just record one. We had a call about recording one.
49:35Um, you get to see how the sausage is made.
49:38We're going to record it tomorrow. It'll be out on Wednesday.
49:42Um, and, uh, yeah, yeah, go check. Oh, we're going to be going to two a week soon.
49:48Yes. Yes. We're going to be going to two a week, uh, here for, uh, best ball, best ball strategy Bible.
49:54Very excited. I'm going to be drafting a ton more and yeah, go check out all our other episodes, go check out
50:01dynasty points, go check out Jacob's work over at thinking about thinking.
50:05Uh, and yeah, that's all I've got for you guys.
50:08So thanks as always and have an awesome rest of your week.
