From the episode
Indianapolis has an implied team total of 25 points... they're getting a Tennessee team that's been a bottom 10-1 in pressure rate this year... Tennessee is sort of an average matchup by adjusted points allowed. But that's mostly game script and volume related.
STACKED’s take
Positive signalMatchup
Jones gets Titans' weak pass rush and 25-point dome game; Colts' TD regression upside.
Jones faces Tennessee, a bottom-10 team in pressure rate, which pairs well with Indianapolis' top-5 pressure rate allowed. While Tennessee is average by adjusted points allowed, they've allowed the 8th highest EPA per drop back and 3rd highest catch rate over expected on a per-play basis. Indianapolis has a 25-point implied total at home in a dome, and the Colts are regression candidates (only 27% of touchdowns through the air, lowest in football), suggesting potential for positive game script and volume for Jones.
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