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0:37This is the Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharyarysen.
0:40What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyarysen, and in this episode 1143 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in.
0:47I'm happy with the results of last week's Sleepers episode.
0:50Some of the really bad picks, they include Kenyon Sadiq, who had that goose egg and then the concussion.
0:56Tyler Algier didn't do that much. Keaton Mitchell was iffy.
0:59TJ Hawkinson also got knocked out early. Tyson Bajant was absolutely atrocious as a deep play.
1:04Roman Wilson didn't play the role that I thought he was going to play before his injury.
1:10And then that Thursday night volatility, it really struck with the Cowboys defense.
1:14Now all of that sounds really bad, but actually the Cowboys defensive streaming pick, that was the only bad one out of six.
1:21The quarterbacks outside of Bajant, they were really good too.
1:24Jordan Love, Jameis Winston, and Jacoby Brissett, they had over 25 points.
1:28And Aaron Rodgers had 22. Ollie Gordon, Braylon Allen, Emmanuel Wilson, and Marshawn Lloyd, they were all usable.
1:34Hunter Henry scored over 13 PPR points. Cortland Sutton even found the end zone.
1:38Kendrick Bourne scored 12 PPR points. Jalen Knoll had a big day with 15 points.
1:43Darius Cooper and Dontavian Wicks, they were both decent.
1:46And then Pat Fryermuth had over 21 PPR points.
1:49So that's two good weeks in a row for this sleeper show.
1:53Let's keep things rolling into week six. Before getting into sleepers this week though, remember to check out the Late Round newsletter.
2:00It's absolutely free. Just hit thelateround.com and sign up.
2:03You get the data dump in your inbox every Monday morning, the 15 transactions list every Tuesday morning, an awesome matchups column from Brandon Gadula every Wednesday.
2:11There's a wrap up email from David Kitchen at the end of the week.
2:16It's a good newsletter. Check it out. Late round.com As usual, we'll kick things off with players rostered in 50 to 80% of Yahoo!
2:24Leagues. And I was going to talk about Jordan Love here, but he's now rostered in 81% of leagues.
2:30So I don't actually have a quarterback in this tier.
2:33But at running back, Blake Corum is still under 80% rostered.
2:36If there's a spot to play him semi comfortably, it would be this one against the Cardinals.
2:42The Rams have an implied team total of almost 33 points.
2:45Chances are, there's going to be a positive game script for LA as 12.5 point favorites.
2:50The Rams have led by 10 or more points on 19% of their offensive plays this year.
2:56And in that situation, Kyron Williams is out snapping Blake Corum just 38-30.
3:00It's been pretty close. Corum has actually had a 14% target share when they've been up that big.
3:06So if this game goes as planned, I'd expect Corum to take advantage of a defense that really can't stop much at all.
3:13Marshawn Lloyd is going to be a popular sleeper pick this week.
3:17And he's the Green Bay running back that I would bet on against Dallas.
3:21The Cowboys have been really bad against running backs.
3:24They've allowed the fifth most adjusted points to the position.
3:28We all saw that last week with Bucky Irving.
3:30My only hesitation with going all in on Marshawn Lloyd is that like I said on the 10 trends episode, his peripherals,
3:37they still weren't fantastic in week five. He had a 44% snap share and Pierre Strong played 75% of their third down snaps.
3:45So if this game script goes south for Green Bay, which is possible, that can happen in any game.
3:51I'm not projecting that, but it can happen. Pierre Strong would get more work than Marshawn Lloyd, at least in terms of snaps.
3:58So that brings more volatility. But the matchup is definitely there for Lloyd to have a good outing.
4:04Woody Marks is the last one in this tier.
4:07The matchup sucks against Jacksonville for sure. The Jags have allowed by far the least amount of adjusted rushing yards to running backs per game this year.
4:15That rush defense is legit. But with David Montgomery injured last week, Marks saw every offensive snap for the Texans aside from the kneel down.
4:23Volume drives this game, so Marks can still get by this week.
4:27At wide receiver, once again, Devon Vele, he's fine this week.
4:31He's got a 19% target share on the season, and we know New Orleans generally runs a lot of plays.
4:37One thing I'll say though is that I don't adore this matchup against the Giants.
4:42Yes, they've been below average against wide receivers this year.
4:45But they rank fourth lowest in percentage of wide receiver points allowed going to the slot.
4:50Meaning, a ton of the points they've allowed to wide receivers, they've gone to perimeter guys.
4:55That means Chris Alave could absolutely smash this week, yes.
4:59But Vele is more of like a 50-50 inside-outside guy.
5:02So it's not quite as good of a spot for him.
5:05I still think you can play him though, because the Saints, they should be able to move the ball better than they did last week.
5:13A slot matchup that I really like this week is with Wandale Robinson.
5:18The Colts are ninth in slot wide receiver points allowed this year, but they're first in percentage of wide receiver points allowed going to the slot.
5:26So when teams are scoring wide receiver points against the Colts, it's the slot receivers who are benefiting.
5:32Wandale Robinson, he's a known slot guy. He's run 76% of his routes from that area of the field this year.
5:38He's actually seen almost a 24% target share over his last three games.
5:42So I like his spot this week. The Chiefs have some question marks at wide receiver heading into week six.
5:49So let's go with Xavier Worthy here. Worthy has about a 19% target share in the season, and he's run 71% of his routes from the outside.
5:57The Chargers, their opponent, they've been bottom six and slot rate points allowed.
6:02And they've given up the ninth most points to perimeter wide receivers this season.
6:06So I could see Worthy having a usable day.
6:09And then lastly, a wide receiver Khalil Shakir. We still don't know what's going on with DJ Moore.
6:15I don't know if he's going to be in or out this week.
6:19But I think regardless, Shakir has the matchup. Only the Eagles and the Lions have allowed more fantasy points to slot receivers this year than the Raiders have.
6:28And what's interesting is that a lot of teams are attacking Vegas deep.
6:32They've allowed the second highest average at the target to opposing wide receivers.
6:36That's always the struggle with Shakir. He has a 20% target share on the season.
6:41That's solid. But his air yards per target is 6.5.
6:44I do wonder if they're able to get him going a little bit more vertically this week against this defense.
6:51At tight end in this tier, I'm going to go with Dallas Goddard.
6:55Goddard returned last week. He saw 67% route share and a 24% target share.
6:59He actually had over 13 expected PPR points. He just underperformed versus that mark.
7:04The Eagles get the Panthers this week. They're in Philadelphia.
7:07Carolina has allowed the 12th most adjusted points to tight ends.
7:10And they've allowed an above average pass rate over expected.
7:14It's not like the most amazing spot in the world, but it's not a bad one.
7:19This next group consists of players rostered in 20-50% of Yahoo leagues.
7:23This is where we're going to start talking quarterbacks.
7:25Kirk Cousins is first. The Raiders get the Bills in Vegas this week.
7:30And Buffalo has been the 11th best matchup for quarterbacks this year by adjusted fantasy points allowed.
7:35The Bills have also allowed the 7th highest pass rate over expected this year.
7:39And they're not really getting to the quarterback. Their pressure rate ranks in the bottom 10.
7:45Vegas is a healthy 24.5 point implied team total.
7:47And with Ashton Gentry clearly not 100%, it could force them to throw the ball a little bit more.
7:54So I like Kirk Cousins in this spot. I also like Aaron Rodgers against Tampa Bay.
7:59The Steelers will eventually regress with how they're scoring their touchdowns.
8:0291% of their offensive scores have come through the air.
8:05But Tampa Bay is a good matchup for what Pittsburgh has done this year.
8:10The Steelers are the top team in pass rate over expected on this week's slate.
8:15And Tampa Bay, as an opponent, they rank 3rd in pass rate over expected allowed.
8:19So I'd expect Pittsburgh to throw the ball a lot in this game.
8:24That favors Aaron Rodgers. Now to be fair, the Bucks have been more of an average matchup for quarterbacks by adjusted points allowed.
8:31The thing is, Tampa Bay is a top 10 team in both adjusted running back and tight end target share allowed.
8:38Pittsburgh's banged up at wide receiver. That could actually play into their favor.
8:42So I think Aaron Rodgers can get it done once again.
8:45And then one more quarterback in this tier is Daniel Jones.
8:49I kind of like dimes this week. Indianapolis has an implied team total of 25 points.
8:54They're playing at home. They're in that dome. And they're getting a Tennessee team that's been a bottom 10-1 in pressure rate this year.
9:02That's big for Daniel Jones because Indianapolis is top 5 in pressure rate allowed.
9:06Tennessee is sort of an average matchup by adjusted points allowed.
9:10But that's mostly game script and volume related. On a per drop back basis, they've allowed the 8th highest EPA per drop
9:17back and the 3rd highest catch rate over expected.
9:20Indianapolis' defense hasn't played all that well. The Titans might be able to do something offensively in this game.
9:26That would be great for Daniel Jones' output. And the Colts are also regression candidates with how they're scoring their touchdowns.
9:32On the season, just 27% of their touchdowns have come through the air.
9:37That's the lowest mark in all of football. At running back, I really like Rashad White this week.
9:42The Commanders are 7.5 point underdogs against the 49ers.
9:45I've talked about this before on the show. But San Francisco has sort of become this running back target funnel.
9:52They've given up an adjusted target share to running backs this season over 24%.
9:56That's the highest in the NFL. In White's return last week, he not only saw a 60% snap share, which led the
10:03backfield, but he plays the pass catching role. He played 92% of Washington's 3rd down snaps.
10:08His route share was 32%. If Washington falls into a negative game script this week, Rashad White is going to be on the field.
10:16So he can get some cheap PPR points. That's the only running back in this tier, so let's look at wide receivers.
10:23First up, Trey Tucker. Tucker really has not been effective this year.
10:27He's reached 10 or more PPR points in just one game.
10:30But I like this spot against Buffalo. Tucker is the only Raiders wide receiver with even a 10% target share this year.
10:37He's at 16%. That's going to happen when you have two capable tight ends with one of those tight ends being absolutely insane at this game.
10:46But Tucker's run 77% of his routes out wide.
10:48Buffalo is first in the NFL and PPR points allowed to outside wide receivers this year.
10:54The Bills have also given up the 7th highest catch rate over expected to opposing wide outs.
10:59I know Tucker has not been great, but the matchup is at least there for him this week.
11:05I mentioned Keenan Allen on this week's 15 transaction show, not for the first time.
11:10He's just not getting enough love in fantasy football right now.
11:13Yes, he's very boring. Yes, it's more of a high floor play and not a high ceiling play.
11:19But over his last two games, his expected PPR point per game total is 16.3 points per game.
11:25The Titans shouldn't scare you as a matchup. They've allowed the 6th most adjusted points to wide receivers this year, the highest
11:32catch rate over expected, and the 3rd most PPR points per target.
11:35So Allen should be okay as a bi-week fill-in.
11:38And then let's look at Jeremy Bernard. We talked about him earlier this week too.
11:43I don't like this matchup against the Bucks the same way I liked last week's against the Colts.
11:49Tampa Bay has been a below average opponent for receivers by adjusted points allowed.
11:53They're not necessarily a good or bad slot matchup either.
11:57And Bernard was shoved into the slot on 54% of his routes this past week.
12:01Regardless, he saw 30% target share. And it's a good passing volume matchup like I just talked about earlier with Aaron Rodgers.
12:08The lack of healthy weapons around Bernard makes him a reasonable play this week.
12:13At tight end, I'm going to go to Brenton Strange.
12:16There really aren't a ton of tight ends in this tier.
12:20But like I said in the 15 transaction show this week, Strange is 10th in the NFL in tight end route share.
12:27He has a 19% target share this year. He's 6th among tight ends and expected PPR points per game over the last 3 weeks.
12:34The Jags get Houston. It's a pretty average to below average matchup on paper.
12:39And I don't want to sell it any other way.
12:42It's not like an amazing matchup. With that being said, this game could see a lot of passing from both teams.
12:49Both defenses are top 7 in the league and pass rate over expected allowed.
12:53And given the peripherals that we've seen from Strange, he can be viable as a result.
12:58The last tier of players includes guys rostered in fewer than 20% of Yahoo leagues.
13:03Jameis Winston is the first one up. The Giants have another great matchup this week against the Saints, a team that's allowed
13:10the 5th highest EPA per drop back in the league.
13:13Now they're more neutral and adjusted points allowed. But that's largely because they've allowed the 4th lowest pass touchdown percentage in the league.
13:21When teams have scored touchdowns against the Saints, they've happened to come on the ground.
13:25And look, the Saints run defense is not good.
13:28That number is probably going to skew in that direction throughout the season.
13:32I'm just saying on a per drop back basis, the defense is not anything special.
13:37They've given up the 10th most fantasy points per drop back in the NFL.
13:42So I think Jameis Winston might be able to get it done once again.
13:46And then real quick, I don't mind Michael Pennix if he's healthy.
13:50It sounds like Caleb Williams is going to be back this week.
13:54That should help keep this game high scoring. Atlanta's implied team total is 24 points.
13:59Chicago is a top 10 matchup by adjusted fantasy points allowed.
14:02In Chicago, they're also below average at pressuring the quarterback this year.
14:06And they're down some edge rushers too. So Michael Pennix, he's not that bad of a play.
14:12Again, as long as he's healthy. Over at running back, Kendra Miller looks like the main early down runner for the Saints.
14:19Last week when that game was within a 7 point margin, Miller saw a near 60% rush share.
14:24Alvin Kamara was at 18%. Now in that same situation in week 4, those numbers were more evenly split 40% to 40%.
14:31But Alvin Kamara also might not be 100%. I say this because the Saints might be able to see more of a
14:38neutral game script against the Giants than they saw last week.
14:42In New York, they've allowed the 7th most adjusted fantasy points to running back this year.
14:47So as a deep play, keep an eye on Kendra Miller.
14:51We still don't know exactly what's happening with the Browns' backfield.
14:54And I won't get into the details of exactly what that split's going to look like because I don't even know who's going to be active.
15:02But really quick, I'm just going to say, keep an eye on Dylan Sampson and Jaleel McLaughlin.
15:08That Ravens matchup, it's not great on paper, though they are average for pass catching running backs.
15:13That's why I'm leaning in this direction, Dylan Sampson, Jaleel McLaughlin, as opposed to going with someone like Audrick Estame, who's just
15:20not that much of a pass catcher. But you got to just keep watching for news items.
15:26It sounds like Dylan Sampson could really go this week.
15:29And if Quenchon Judkins is out, Sampson would be an okay play.
15:33Now if Saquon Barkley doesn't go this week, which is right now up in the air, you could look at Damian Pearce.
15:40He played every snap after Will Shipley's injury last week, and they get Carolina.
15:44The Panthers are the third best matchup this season by adjusted fantasy points allowed for running backs.
15:50If Pierce sees a bell cow workload like last week suggests, he could be good.
15:54But obviously, don't go in this direction if Saquon Barkley plays.
15:58Keep an eye on DeAndre Swift's health, too. There's some speculation that he's banged up.
16:03And obviously, Kyle Monunga has turf toe. So if both are out, Roshon Johnson would get a lot of work in this backfield.
16:10The problem, if Swift goes, I don't think you can play Johnson very confidently.
16:15In the first half of that game against the Packers, Johnson saw six snaps to Swift's 22.
16:20The game eventually got out of hand, and Roshon ended up seeing a lot of easy dump-offs.
16:25But I'm calling him out right now because if those other Bears running backs are out, clearly Roshon Johnson would be a
16:33good sleeper even in a tougher matchup. I talked about the Packers backfield earlier.
16:37If you're very, very desperate, Pierre Strong might be able to catch some passes in this game against Dallas.
16:43But we already talked about, so let's move on to the last running back, Corey Kiner.
16:48Travion Henderson is out. Ramondre Stevenson is going to see a big workload in that New England offense, more than likely.
16:55But the Patriots are also seven and a half point favorites against the Jets.
16:59New York is the ninth best matchup for running backs by adjusted points allowed.
17:04And we literally just saw New England get Kiner involved last week in a blowout.
17:09He saw more rushes than Stevenson did in last week's game in the second half.
17:13It's a pure desperation play, but I figured I'd at least call it out.
17:18At wide receiver, Casey Concepcion is likely out this week because of a concussion.
17:22And last week, Jerry Judy, Isaiah Bond, and Denzel Boston, they all saw seven targets.
17:27And they each caught three of those seven targets.
17:30The deployment for these three wide receivers was not the same.
17:34Bond had an 83% slot rate. The other two were at 26%, and Denzel Boston was at 3%.
17:39Bond is more of that one-to-one replacement for Casey Concepcion.
17:43In Cleveland, they play out of 11 personnel at the sixth highest rate in the league.
17:48So all three of these wide receivers should be on the field.
17:51Especially if there's a negative game script. Baltimore has been an above average matchup this year for wide receivers when looking at adjusted fantasy points allowed.
18:00And they've also given up a top 10 slot points allowed rate.
18:04As in, teams are attacking the slot more than usual when they face the Ravens.
18:08That makes Bond a sleeper. If CeeDee Lamb is out, Ryan Flannoy, he's a strong play.
18:14He's seen a 25% targets per out run rate when Lamb has been off the field this year.
18:19The Packers are more of a run funnel, admittedly.
18:22But I do think that you can still look Flannoy's way because the Cowboys have a 26-point implied team total.
18:29There could be scoring in this game. Brandon Cooks led the 49ers in routes run after Deebo Samuel got hurt on Sunday.
18:36And in our small sample, three-quarters of his routes were run on the perimeter.
18:40Jacob Cowling was playing more inside out. That's why I slightly prefer Cooks as a sleeper this week versus Cowling.
18:46They get Washington and Washington has given up the second most points to perimeter wide receivers this year.
18:52The 49ers, despite their wide receiver injuries, they still have the third highest implied team total on this week's slate.
18:59So if you're in a serious pinch, you could look at Brandon Cooks.
19:03Pat Friermuth has been cooking this year. He scored a touchdown in three of five games, including a multi-touchdown game last week.
19:10I wish I could just say regression is coming, but I love the matchup this week.
19:15Teams have attacked the Bucks with their tight ends this year.
19:18They've given up the third highest adjusted target share to the position.
19:22They've also allowed the eighth most adjusted fantasy points to the position.
19:26As I said earlier, the Steelers have the highest pass rate over expected among teams on this slate.
19:32Tampa Bay's allowed the third highest pass rate over expected.
19:35So volume should be there in this offense. And oh, by the way, the Steelers are limited at wide receiver.
19:41To me, it paints a very favorable picture for Pat Friermuth.
19:45Over the last two weeks with Puka Nakua back, Tyler Higbee has a 71% route share.
19:50That's the 15th highest mark among all tight ends in football.
19:54He's seen about a 12% target share, which isn't amazing, but he's averaging six targets per game with how things have gone
20:01offensively for the Rams and the scripts that they've seen.
20:04They may not throw the ball 50 times this week against Arizona, but they have a near 33 point implied team total.
20:11Like I said earlier, Arizona ranks fourth worst and adjusted points allowed to tight ends.
20:16And they've given up the seventh highest adjusted target share to the position.
20:20So the matchup is there, the team environment generally there.
20:23Higbee's not a bad dart throw streamer. And then a more volatile sleeper this week is Charlie Kohler.
20:29Hear me out. The Chargers get the Chiefs this week.
20:32They're eight and a half point underdogs. They're probably going to throw the ball a decent bit.
20:37Kansas City is a good streaming defense this week.
20:40Don't get me wrong, but they've been relatively average at pressuring quarterbacks this year.
20:45That's really important for Justin Herbert, who's seen the fourth highest pressure rate this season.
20:50The Chargers are also dealing with a lot of injuries at wide receiver.
20:54If we assume most of those guys are going to be out this week, Kohler becomes really intriguing.
21:00He ran more routes than Arande Gadsden last week, and he ran more of his routes as a traditional tight end.
21:06Arande Gadsden lined up out wide on 35% of his routes run.
21:10Kohler was at 9%. And Kohler had a 19% target share.
21:14And then Kansas City, they've allowed the fourth most adjusted points of tight ends this year and a top 10 PPR points per target rate.
21:22So I have some interest here in Charlie Kohler, but only in super deep leagues.
21:26At defense this week, I mentioned the Chiefs and the 15 transaction show.
21:31They work. The Colts might be able to get it done against the Titans.
21:35And then you can also look at San Francisco against Washington.
21:39That's it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
21:43If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are by searching for it.
21:49Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
21:55Thanks for listening, everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow with the weekly mailbag episode.
22:00This episode sponsored by Homebase. Homebase is built for small businesses trying to do it all.
22:05The neighborhood coffee shop, the local gym, the family-run restaurant.
22:08With Homebase, you can schedule your team, track time, run payroll, and manage hiring from one easy app.
22:14So you can spend less time chasing timesheets and more time running the business your customers love.
22:19More than 150,000 small businesses already use Homebase to keep their teams on track.
22:24Start free at joinhomebase.com. Homebase, built for small businesses that do it all.
22:28This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.
