1144: Mailbag - Chase Brown's Usage, Mobile Quarterbacks, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
24 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 16, 2026
Published
Fri, October 16, 2026
10
Player insights
4
Players mentioned
Topics
Chase BrownBreece HallJeremiyah LoveJoe Mixon
Player analysis
Player insights
Breece Hall
NegativeProjection1:27
Breece Hall (2024) is Ashton Gentile's top historical comp through weeks 1-5 based on usage (snap share, rush share, route share, target share) and efficiency metrics (10+ yard run rate, yards after contact per attempt, yards per carry, success rate). Hall saw his RB ranking improve in a positive direction after week 5.
Insight pageChase Brown
NegativeValue4:28
JJ Zachariason is not ready to sell Chase Brown in redraft leagues despite week 5 concerns; he believes some analysts are overreacting to the fumble and coaching staff quotes about reevaluating the backfield. While Brown's ground game efficiency is poor, Samajay Pirine has not been significantly better in limited action, and Brown maintains advantages in explosiveness and early-down success rate.
Insight pageNegativeUsage5:04
JJ Zachariason breaks down Chase Brown's week 5 snap share collapse: Brown had a 75% snap share before fumbling in the second quarter, which dropped to 49% after the fumble. Pre-fumble rushing split was 6-4 in Brown's favor, but post-fumble Pirine out-snapped Brown 22-17. Brown played 86% of early down snaps pre-fumble versus 50% post-fumble, suggesting the fumble significantly impacted his usage despite coaching staff claims about scheme fit.
Insight pageNegativeProjection5:45
Chase Brown has been one of the worst running backs in the league on the ground this season: he ranks second to last in yards after contact per attempt and has a 31% success rate (42nd out of 55 running backs with 20+ carries). While he has a higher 10+ yard run rate and is more explosive than Samajay Pirine, his overall ground game efficiency is poor.
Insight pagePositiveUsage6:52
Chase Brown's rushing effectiveness has declined significantly in shotgun formations; on 53 early-down rushes out of shotgun with Joe Burrow on field in neutral game scripts (within 7 points), Brown posted a 28% success rate compared to Samajay Pirine's 57% on 28 rushes. Cincinnati has reverted to shotgun-heavy play (86% over last two weeks vs. 70% weeks 1-3), which favors Pirine as a runner. However, Brown remains a reliable pass-catcher out of shotgun with a 16.8% target share and 23.8% route target rate on early downs out of shotgun, versus 7.7% target share and 11% route target rate under center. JJ Zachariason expects Brown's ground workload to decline but projects continued receiving involvement.
Insight pageNegativeProjection10:00
Brown has one touchdown this season versus 10 from week six onward last year, a significant decline that will dampen fantasy production. JJ Zachariason expects his ground-game workload to drop slightly moving forward, though receiving work should persist. Brown may not reach high-end RB1 status like last year's stretch but should remain in the high-end RB2 to low-end RB1 range once the Bengals return from their bye.
Insight pageNegativeValue10:09
JJ Zachariason's stance is to hold tight and avoid aggressive buying. He prefers to buy players with outstanding peripherals across the board; while Brown has not been a good runner and Perine hasn't been fantastic either, the receiving work should remain intact. This makes Brown a hold rather than a buy-low target.
Insight pageNegativeUsage10:32
From week six onward last year (post-Flacco arrival), Brown averaged 19.4 PPR points per game with 66% snap share, under 60% rush share, 14.5% target share, and 59% route share. This year through week five, he had 74% snap share and 72% rush share—higher ground-game work but lower receiving role. JJ Zachariason notes the receiving work should remain consistent with last year's stretch, though ground-game effectiveness has declined for both Brown and Samaj Perine.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveProjection13:12
JJ Zachariason reflects on his process error with Travion Henderson last year, when he overestimated pass-catching work for a rookie running back. He notes that since 2016, only 9 rookie running backs have achieved both a 50% rush share and above 10% target share in the same season, and only 5 of those hit 12%+ target share. This historical context suggests rookie RBs rarely see high target shares unless in satellite roles, cautioning against similar assumptions with Jeremiah Love.
Insight pageJoe Mixon
NegativeProjection1:42
Joe Mixon (2022) is Ashton Gentile's second-best historical comp through weeks 1-5 based on usage and efficiency metrics. Mixon saw his RB ranking improve dramatically from weeks 1-5 versus weeks 6 through end of season.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Guaranteed Human.
0:03Guaranteed Human Services Corporation, member FINRA, Columbus, Ohio. This is the Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharyarysen.
0:09What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyarysen. In this episode 1144 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast...
0:15Thanks for tuning in. Before getting into the questions this week, I want to remind you guys about becoming a Late-Round Fantasy Football member.
0:23As a member, you get weekly rankings, which include my Top 100 Flex rankings, there's a livestream Q&A with yours truly for
0:31over an hour every Tuesday night, there's rest of season rankings, monthly Dynasty rankings updates, an incredibly awesome and active Discord community, and more.
0:39To learn more about becoming a Late-Round member, just head to lateroound.com.
0:43So the first question this week is actually just from the Late-Round Discord.
0:48I was chatting with people the other day, they wanted me to look at Ashton Genticomps.
0:53So instead of reading a question, I'll just shout out that Discord and let's dig into some comps.
0:59I looked at a handful of things with Genticomps to find these comps.
1:04I used Snap Share, Rush Share, Route Share, Target Share, Current Points Per Game...
1:09All the volume related things that we're always concerned about.
1:12But then I wanted to include some of the efficiency and effectiveness things too.
1:17Because that's been a problem for people with Ashton Genticomps.
1:20So with some of the efficiency stuff, I looked at 10 plus yard run rate, yards after contact per attempt, yards per carry, and success rate.
1:29Essentially, I wanted to find players in the past since 2016 who through weeks one through five had similar usage, similar production, and similar efficiency as Genticomps.
1:38The results aren't like terrible to be honest. I won't go through every single comp, but like Brees Hall in 2024 was his top comp.
1:47Then Joe Mixon in 2022 was his next one.
1:50Both of those running backs actually saw their running back rank change in a positive direction.
1:56Joe Mixon pretty dramatically from weeks one to five versus week six through the end of the year.
2:02In total, when looking at the top 10 comps for Genticomps, something kind of interesting happens.
2:07Nine out of the ten saw their 10 plus yard run rate get better during the remaining parts of the season.
2:15Or after week five. Seven of the ten saw their yards per carry get better.
2:20Seven of the ten also saw their yards after contact per attempt get better.
2:25But many of them saw the volume stuff drop.
2:28In total, the group saw their point per game average drop after week five by about .8 points per game.
2:35What I think is going on here is basic regression.
2:38Number one, it's hard to maintain a really high backfield share all season long.
2:43Genticomps currently ranks in the top ten in snap share, rush share, top five in target share, he's top five in route share.
2:51Those numbers might drop a little bit as the season goes on.
2:55It's just hard to maintain them. Now there's a chance that they drop because the team sees the lack of effectiveness.
3:02They slightly change his workload. And then that helps the effectiveness.
3:06That's certainly one reason as to why we're seeing the numbers that we're seeing with these comps.
3:12But overall, I try not to get too concerned about efficiency numbers when we're dealing with a player like Ashton Gentie.
3:19Where the franchise seems to be pointing in a direction where they clearly want him to be the centerpiece of their offense.
3:27Or one of the centerpieces. The injury stuff could definitely come into play with him.
3:32But volume is volume. And volume predicts future volume, generally speaking.
3:36So maybe we project a slight dip in points per game for Ashton Gentie moving forward.
3:41And maybe he doesn't end up being the stud that you drafted him to be.
3:46Or that you wanted him to be. But if a round two running back ends up scoring over 15 PPR points per game.
3:54And right now he's closer to 17. So I'm being generous.
3:58But if he's over 15 into that 16 PPR points per game range.
4:02That's actually not a bad result at all. So right now with Ashton Gentie, I'm just holding.
4:08We'll go from one inefficient running back to the next.
4:12This one's from Marcel. And it says, Hey JJ, what should we do with Chase Brown in redraft leagues?
4:18I'm getting tempted to move on from him and trade him for someone like Bashaw Tootin.
4:24Would you hold on to Chase Brown or would you try to sell?
4:28So look, overall in a vacuum, I'm not ready to sell Chase Brown.
4:33I think there are some people out there who are going a little bit overboard with what happened in week 5.
4:40I've seen articles. And I've seen some of the quotes from Dan Pitcher about his backfield.
4:45That's their offensive coordinator. Saying that they're reevaluating things.
4:48That they went more with Samajay Pirine because he fit what they wanted to do more in week 5.
4:55There are reasons to agree with that. I'll get to that in a second.
5:00But there are also reasons to say that those quotes are absolute BS.
5:04Chase Brown fumbled in the second quarter of that game.
5:08Before the fumble, he had a 75% snap share.
5:11After the fumble, it was 49%. You can't tell me that the fumble had nothing to do with his usage in week 5.
5:19Now to be fair, before that fumble, the rushing split between Pirine and Brown was 6-4.
5:246-4 in favor of Brown. But some of that's just the randomness of play calling.
5:29Brown had played 86% of their early down snaps pre-fumble.
5:33Post-fumble, his early down snap share was 50%. After the fumble, Pirine out snapped Brown 22-17.
5:38But look, if we're being totally objective here, Chase Brown has not been good on the ground this season.
5:45He's been one of the worst players in the league in yards after contact per attempt.
5:50And his 31% success rate, it's 42nd out of 55 running backs with 20 or more carries.
5:56But here's the thing you guys, Samajay Pirine in his limited action, he hasn't been very good either.
6:02While Brown ranks second to last in yards after contact per attempt, Samajay Pirine is barely ahead of him.
6:09While Brown's success rate is 31%, Samajay Pirine's is 37%.
6:12Brown has done more in the 10 plus yard run rate department.
6:17He's more explosive than Samajay Pirine. So strictly when looking at the ground game stuff, Brown has been bad, yeah.
6:23But Pirine has also not been that great in a limited sample.
6:28And when you focus strictly on the early down work, Brown actually has a higher success rate this year than Samajay Pirine does.
6:36Now I said there was one area where I would agree with what the Bengals coaching staff is saying.
6:42Or at least saying to the media. And that's in terms of overall fit.
6:47I looked at how these running backs performed when out of shotgun versus under center.
6:52There was a lot of talk this offseason about how the Bengals were going to play more from under center.
6:59They've been one of the most shotgun heavy teams in football over the last couple of years.
7:05Over the last couple of weeks, they've gone more into shotgun than they had to start the season.
7:11Now sometimes it's just due to game script. But from weeks one to three, when games were within a seven point margin,
7:19Cincinnati ran 70% of their plays out of shotgun.
7:22Over the last two weeks, that number is 86%.
7:25I bring that up because Samajay Pirine in our relatively limited sample, he's definitely been more effective than Chase Brown has out of shotgun, on the ground.
7:34I looked at some data going back to the start of the 2025 season.
7:39Here's the split that I looked at. Joe Burrow was on the field, the game was within a seven point margin, and we're looking at early downs only.
7:49Those are when run plays are going to be most frequent.
7:52It's more of a one to one comparison. Samajay Pirine on his 28 rushes has a pretty absurd 57% success rate on those runs went out of shotgun.
8:02Chase Brown on 53 rushes is at 28%. Pirine clears Brown in most metrics across the board on the ground, out of shotgun.
8:10It's a small sample, yes. But it's at least some evidence that not all of this is total crap.
8:16We don't really have a big sample of Samajay Pirine under center in that same environment.
8:22But Brown's splits have been better on the ground when the team has been under center.
8:27He's not as good on the ground when they're out of shotgun.
8:32If we strictly left it at that, I would say that I would be semi worried about Chase Brown.
8:38The issue is that again, number one, overall, Pirine still hasn't been that good this year.
8:44And number two, we're only looking at rushing work right now.
8:47There's the passing game element too. Chase Brown is a reliable pass catcher, if nothing else.
8:53He's not B. Sean Robinson, he's not Jameer Gibbs in terms of effectiveness, but he's reliable.
8:58He can see a lot of looks through the air as a go-to dump off option for Joe Burrow.
9:05And out of shotgun, that's when Brown has really thrived as a receiver.
9:09In that same neutral situation with Joe Burrow on the field, on early downs, when under center, Brown has seen a 7.7% target share.
9:18He's seen a target on 11% of his routes run.
9:21That's under center. When out of shotgun, again, when the situation is more neutral, when Joe Burrow is the quarterback.
9:28Brown's target share on early downs jumps to almost 17%.
9:31That's about a 9% point jump from when they're under center.
9:35He sees a target on almost 24% of his routes run.
9:39His yards per outrun, his targets per outrun, they're all much better than Samajay Pirine in those situations, out of shotgun.
9:46In the snap rate between those two in that situation since 2025, it's 89 for Pirine and 229 for Chase Brown.
9:53It's not nothing in terms of sample size. So where we're at is that this is a team that's starting to just revert back to their old ways.
10:03They're playing more out of shotgun. Pirine has been more effective as a runner out of shotgun in that offense.
10:10With that being said, looking at the numbers, I don't know if Pirine is special enough to say that he deserves like
10:18a 70% backfield share on the ground. And that's especially true because Brown is a better pass catcher out of shotgun.
10:25That's a part of the game that I don't think that we can just dismiss when talking about this backfield.
10:32So my conclusion based on all this research is that I do expect Brown's ground game workload to drop a little bit moving forward.
10:40But I also think the Bengals are going to continue to get him involved as a receiver.
10:46Here's the thing though. The Bengals got Joe Flacco in week six last year, and then Joe Burrow eventually took over after his injury.
10:54From week six onward, Chase Brown was a stud in fantasy football.
10:58He averaged 19.4 PPR points per game. And guess what?
11:02Even though Pirine was banged up throughout that split, Chase Brown's snap share was 66% in the split.
11:08His rush share was under 60%. His target share though was 14.5% and his route share was 59%.
11:14What's interesting about this discussion was that entering week five.
11:17So before we saw a pretty big snap discrepancy between these two running backs, Chase Brown had a snap share of 74%.
11:25That was eight percentage points higher than last year after week five, when he was really good in fantasy football.
11:32His rush share was 72% from weeks one to four this year.
11:36Remember last year, it was under 60% when he was thriving.
11:40Guys, Chase Brown is a pass catcher. That's what we need for fantasy football.
11:45To start the year and down the stretch last year, we're seeing pretty similar usage numbers as a pass catcher.
11:52The difference is that the ground game work isn't quite as effective, both for him and Samaj AP Ryan.
11:58And let's be real. He's not finding the end zone.
12:02He had 10 touchdowns from week six onward last year.
12:05He has one touchdown this season. That's going to change the fantasy conversation.
12:09So my stance, just like Ashton Gentry, it's to hold tight.
12:13I don't think it's necessary to be aggressive in buying him only because I'd rather buy a player who has outstanding peripherals all over the place.
12:22Brown has not been a good runner. But the good news is that Pirine hasn't been fantastic either.
12:28Which means I think the usage on the ground, it might drop a little bit for Chase Brown.
12:35We might see a little bit less work. But the receiving work should still be there.
12:40And we've seen this play out before. And when we've seen it play out, Brown has still been fine in fantasy football.
12:48He may not be a high-end RB1 like he was down the stretch last year.
12:53But I still think Chase Brown can live in that high-end RB2, low-end RB1 range.
12:58Once they're back from their buy. Because it's a good offense in the receiving role, it should still be there to a decent degree.
13:06We're going to hit on all the controversial running backs on today's mailbag episode because this next one is from Blue Sky.
13:14It's from at Dave McPherson. He says, what do we do with Jeremiah Love at this point?
13:20So you guys know that I always talk about learning from mistakes.
13:24Fixing our process. Trying to be better when you're inevitably wrong in fantasy football.
13:29Last year, I was too high on Travion Henderson.
13:32A lot of you remember this. My logic with the pick focused a lot around the pass-catching work that I assumed Henderson
13:39was going to see in that New England offense.
13:42Even though Henderson had some really big weeks last year, I'd say he was kind of a whatever pick in the end
13:50because he did have those spiked weeks. It was a bad process for me.
13:55Because I made an assumption that I shouldn't have made.
13:58The truth is, rookie running backs don't typically see high target shares unless they're only playing a satellite back role.
14:05Since 2016, there have been just 9 rookie running backs that hit a 50% rush share per game rate and a target share above 10%.
14:14Only 5 of those players had at least a 12% target share.
14:18Now granted, Jeremiah Love isn't like any other rookie running back.
14:22But with Tyler Algier back there, there was always that risk that Love wouldn't see the receiving reps that we wanted him to see.
14:30Or a high route share. That's essentially what we're seeing right now.
14:34On the season, Tyler Algier has played 2 more snaps on offense than Love has.
14:39Love has a 56% rush share, so that's good.
14:42But Love is trailing Algier in routes runs 78-60.
14:45His target share is just 7% as a result.
14:49And a lot of that is just the general role on the team.
14:53Algier is playing way more 3rd downs and he's been the one on the field in those passing down situations.
15:00This isn't to say that a 3rd down role is everything.
15:04Players will catch passes on early downs too. The Cardinals have tried doing that with Love.
15:09Love still has a higher target share than Tyler Algier.
15:13But there's enough Algier usage to torpedo Love's overall value up until this point in time.
15:18Now I'll give you the bad news first. The bad news is that Arizona has a tough schedule.
15:24They had a tough schedule entering the season. So negative game scripts could be frequent moving forward.
15:30That's scary for Jeremiah Love because of how we've seen them use Tyler Algier in those situations.
15:36But here's the good news. We can't assume that this usage is going to be the usage all season long.
15:43That's the one piece of good news. But here's the second one.
15:47I looked at rookie season comps for Jeremiah Love.
15:50Based on his first 5 weeks, how he's done in rush share, snap share, target share, and route share.
15:57I then got 8 relatively close comps for other rookie running backs since 2016.
16:02Those players had point per game averages that ranged from about 9 to 15.
16:06Most of them though were right around where Love is at, at 10.2 PPR points per game.
16:12Only one of the players saw their points per game decline from week 6 onward.
16:17That was actually Quinshaw Judkins last year. The average increase in PPR points per game when you look at weeks 1 to
16:255 and then week 6 through the end of the year was plus 3.2.
16:30Four of the players saw significant jumps of almost 4 points per game and above.
16:35So I think Love is one of those volatile pieces that you might want to invite to your roster.
16:41If you can sincerely buy Low, I'm talking like bench assets, maybe a fringe starting running back, gobble them together and buy Low on Jeremiah Love.
16:50I think I'd go in that direction just based on history.
16:54But if you drafted him thinking that he'd be like, you know, like a high-end RB1, I think those dreams are mostly over.
17:02But he's probably more at a low point right now than like a medium point.
17:07Just monitor his health. Because there are some negative reports right now surrounding his health.
17:12That's probably the biggest deal at this point. The last question this week is from Pete.
17:18It says, So this is actually a really interesting question.
17:21And the data tells a very interesting story. Quarterbacks in total, they're running the ball less in 2026.
17:28We've had 607 quarterback rushes so far this year.
17:31That's about 60 fewer than last year at this point in time.
17:35We haven't been this low since 2020. Now is that some sort of sign that things are shifting in the NFL?
17:42I don't necessarily think so. If you look at the landscape, we've had injuries to a lot of mobile quarterbacks.
17:49Jaden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray, Jackson Dart.
17:52Even Jalen Hurts hasn't been totally healthy this year.
17:55Not only that, but Hurts in particular, he's carried the rushing quarterback torch for a few years now with a tush push.
18:03That offense hasn't been playing as well, and he's seeing fewer of those opportunities.
18:08That's allowing other quarterbacks to step in and be relevant.
18:11But there's more than that too. Daniel Jones is coming off an Achilles.
18:16Patrick Mahomes, he's coming off an ACL. Drake may got off to a really, really weird and bad start.
18:22His rushing has been there, but his overall production hasn't.
18:26So he's not ranked as a top quarterback. There's just been some really strange things happening with the quarterbacks that we'd usually
18:33bank on for their dual threat ability. Now to be clear, quarterback scoring is not down this year as a result.
18:41Quarterbacks are scoring about the same as they did last year through five weeks.
18:45Passing production is on the higher side right now compared to the last five years.
18:51So the points haven't gone away. With so many of our rushers hurt or limited, the passers have filled the gap.
18:58You can see that in the top 12. Last year at this point, about 23% of top 12 quarterback fantasy points came from rushing.
19:06In 2024, that number was 26%. This year though, it's 17%.
19:10But look at who's in the top 12. Jared Goff, Bryce Young, Kirk Cousins, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott.
19:16They're good players having good starts, but nobody's drafting them for their legs.
19:20Many of them are in there because the guys who usually take those spots haven't been on the field.
19:27Look at Caleb Williams as the perfect example. He's only played two games.
19:31But if you were to count them, he'd be a top five quarterback with about half of his points coming on the ground.
19:39He just hasn't played enough to show up in the rankings.
19:43Now look at the dual threat players who have stayed on the field.
19:48Josh Allen right now is the QB one by a mile.
19:51He has 28 points per game. More than half of that is from rushing.
19:56He has eight rushing touchdowns in five games. Jaden Daniels has been a top five quarterback when he's played.
20:03And over half of his points have come via rushing.
20:06When those guys are healthy, when they're running, they're still some of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football.
20:12The cheat code hasn't gone away. I also want to talk about though why we focus on rushing.
20:19It's not because pocket passers can't and won't finish as top fantasy options.
20:23This gets lost in the discussion all the time.
20:26It's about predictability. We see way more fluctuation with pocket passing quarterbacks than we do with the mobile guys.
20:33I talk about it in the draft guide every year, but rushing production, it's far stickier year over year than passing production is.
20:41Good passers can certainly buck these trends. Like Joe Burrow, for instance.
20:45But here's the interesting thing with Joe Burrow. He's been above 20 points per game twice in his career.
20:51In one of those seasons, he scored almost three and a half points per game with his legs.
20:58And the other, which was in 2024, he averaged almost two points per game.
21:02And it took him a 6.6% touchdown rate and 652 pass attempts to get there.
21:08Burrow has had two seasons with less than a point per game via rushing.
21:12And in those two seasons, he scored less than 17 points per game.
21:17This year, for the record, he's at 2.2 points per game via rushing.
21:21I say all of that because those small wins, those two to three points per game, they can literally be the difference.
21:29And oftentimes, they will be the difference between a quarterback who's just like the QB 12 to one who's actually the QB 5, who's actually a difference maker.
21:39So what I'm getting at is, when we talk about rushing production, it's not simply only rushing quarterbacks will be atop the leaderboard.
21:46It's the humility to know that predicting exactly who the pocket passers who kind of break the mold or break math, predicting
21:54who those guys are going to be, is a very difficult task.
21:58We can have a general idea. We can guide ourselves in the right direction.
22:03But it's a safer bet to lean towards the mobile guy.
22:07Unfortunately, this season, a lot of those guys just have not been healthy.
22:11So it's giving other quarterbacks an opportunity to step into QB 1 land.
22:16So outlier or new trend? I'm calling this more of an outlier.
22:20There's been some weird stuff happening. But it doesn't mean that we won't see some of these non-mobile quarterbacks finish high this year.
22:28We definitely will. Because it happens every single season.
22:31That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
22:35If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are researching for it.
22:42Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
22:49LateRound Perspectives will be hitting your podcast feeds later this morning.
22:53And then obviously you got the Late Round Fantasy Football Show 1 p.m.
22:57Eastern over on the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel.
23:00Thanks for listening this week, everyone. Greatly appreciate you.
23:04Enjoy week six. I'll catch you next week. We'll be right back.
23:08We'll be right back. We'll be right back. Thanks for listening.
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