1142: 10 Trends for Week 6

Bucky Irving saw his first goal line rush since the 2024 season in Week 5 against the Cowboys, but his receiving work is trending downward; his route share dropped to a season-low 29% in Week 5 despite a 12% target share. From Weeks 1-2, Irving had a 59% route share and 18% target share, but over the last three weeks his third-down snap rate has collapsed from 62% to 14% (23% vs. Cowboys), his route share is 32%, and his target share is 8%, following the formula of route share divided by four.

Caleb Douglas being sidelined has helped create opportunity for Kevin Coleman's increased route share and target volume with the Dolphins.

Dalton Kincaid has collapsed after Week 2, averaging 3 PPR points per game over the last three weeks after averaging 20.3 PPR points per game through Week 2 (second among tight ends); he's now ranked tight end 15 on the season. In Week 5, he returned to a 68% route share but faced the Rams, the best team against tight ends by adjusted fantasy points allowed, in a game with only 19 pass attempts.

Darnell Washington is a contributing factor to Pittsburgh's rising tight end target share, which has increased nearly every week and reached 32% in Week 5 (season high).

Elijah Higgins, Cardinals backup tight end, saw a 41.5% route share in Week 5 compared to his season-long average of 15%, a massive spike driven by the team's increased 13 personnel usage.

Jalen Brooks was the only non-Michael Wilson wide receiver to run a route out of 13 personnel in Week 5, as an outside receiver; this reflects the Cardinals' shift to three tight end sets that removed slot receivers from the field.

Josh Allen is averaging 28.6 fantasy points per game through 5 weeks, the third-highest mark since 2016 behind only Russell Wilson in 2020 and Allen himself in 2022; he's doing this in an unprecedented way by averaging 14.4 rushing points per game, far exceeding any quarterback's rushing production through 5 weeks since 2016 (previous high was 13 PPG).

Kendrick Bourne's route share dropped from 74% pre-Week 5 to 60% in Week 5 due to Cardinals' increased 13 personnel usage (three tight end sets), which removes slot receivers from the field; despite a favorable matchup against the Lions' weak slot coverage, his usage actually decreased post-Harrison trade rather than increased.

Kevin Coleman, a Day 3 rookie slot receiver from Miami, had a breakout score of 7th best in the 2024 draft class (a highly predictive metric for wide receiver success); his route share has trended upward from below 50% in his first two games to 55%, 55%, and 67% over the last three games, with corresponding target increases of 4, 4, and 7. He posted a 24% target share in Week 4 and 27% in Week 5, making him a worthwhile dynasty dart throw to monitor.

Marshawn Lloyd had a 44% snap share and 42% rush share in Week 5 against the Bears, with his route share dropping about 20 percentage points compared to Week 4; despite two rushing touchdowns and a favorable Week 6 matchup against the Cowboys, his expected PPR points were just 10, indicating rough overall usage patterns.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is no longer on the Cardinals team as of Week 5, fundamentally altering the offensive structure; the Cardinals shifted to 35% of plays in 13 personnel (three tight end sets) in Week 5 versus fewer than 20% in Weeks 1-4, reducing wide receiver opportunities.

Michael Wilson saw a decline in route share in Week 5 due to Cardinals' increased 13 personnel usage; there is concern that teams will double Wilson since other offensive threats aren't being taken seriously post-Harrison trade, per Michael LaFleur's comments.

Ollie Gordon has averaged 16.4 PPR points per game over the last two weeks (14th best among running backs with two games played), despite the Dolphins offense being terrible; however, his rush share ranks only 20th and route share 14th among qualifying running backs, suggesting RB2-level usage rather than elite production. The Dolphins' remaining schedule is advantageous for running backs, but Gordon has scored half of Miami's touchdowns over the last two weeks, which is unsustainable.

Pat Freiermuth ranks 8th among 26 tight ends with 100+ routes run in PPR points per route run; he has a solid 15% target share in an offense with one of the highest pass rates over expected in the league. Pittsburgh's tight end target share has shifted upward nearly every week, reaching 32% in Week 5 (season high), and Freiermuth ranks 10th in expected PPR points per game at tight end with only 4 tight ends having more end zone targets.

Pierre Strong is functioning as the Packers' Chris Brooks replacement with Chris Brooks injured; Strong had a 41% snap share, played 75% of Green Bay's third down snaps, and ran four more routes than Marshawn Lloyd in Week 5.

Ramondre Stevenson is a trade target with significant upside following Travion Henderson's high ankle sprain (multiple weeks out); over New England's next four games (Jets, Bears, Dolphins, Packers), the Patriots face all top-12 matchups for running backs by adjusted fantasy points allowed, giving Stevenson potentially the best running back schedule in football. In Week 1 without Henderson, Stevenson had 16.4 expected PPR points despite a messy Patriots offense.

Tegan Quatoriano saw a 32% route share in Week 5 after running no routes all season, benefiting from the Cardinals' shift to 13 personnel (three tight end sets); he scored a touchdown in that game.