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0:58JJ Zacharyarysen. What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyarysen. In this episode 1145 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in.
1:05Before I get to the 15 transactions this week, I want to remind you guys about the data dump show on the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel.
1:15Every Monday morning at 11am Eastern, Brandon Gadula and David Kitchen are going to be live on the channel talking about all
1:22the week's major injuries, usage trends, and more. It's exclusively on YouTube, so make sure to subscribe to the channel, youtube.com slash at Late Round FF.
1:30Add Jacoby Lane. So a little behind the scenes, I record these episodes on Monday before Monday Night Football.
1:37But right now, today, this is probably the weakest waiver wire of the season.
1:41That's assuming that players like Jeremy Bernard or Jordan Tyson, they're not available in your league.
1:47That's the assumption. And if you've listened to this show, there's almost no chance that Tyson and Bernard are available in your
1:54league because they'd be on your roster. So a lot of the transactions this week are about looking ahead.
2:00And that's where we're going to start right now with Jacoby Lane.
2:04He returned from injury in week six. He didn't have the most productive day in the world, but he should be on your radar.
2:12He had a 58% route share and a 16% target share.
2:16He got four passes for 40 yards. But it was just his second career game.
2:21And in that game, Rashad Bateman got hurt. He hurt his shoulder.
2:25And as we know, Snoop Huntley was under center.
2:28If Rashad Bateman is out, and if Lamar Jackson comes back from his injury, Jacoby Lane could be a lot more usable in fantasy football.
2:36So I don't know if this is going to pay off right away, but I'm always going to take a shot on
2:43a good rookie who looks like his role could be expanding.
2:47Hold Devontae Smith. So this Jalen Hurts blood clot news, it's likely making fantasy managers feel a little bit panicked about Devontae Smith.
2:55He had a strong outing against the Panthers. You're probably thinking, hey, I should sell him.
3:00I should trade him away. But I don't know if that's really the right move.
3:05I mean, look, you can always try to trade him.
3:08But don't you think that everyone in your league knows that Jalen Hurts is sidelined?
3:13The fact is Philadelphia wasn't doing that much through the air with Jalen Hurts under center.
3:19And with Tanner McKee, you at least get a quarterback who's not going to take away so many plays with his legs.
3:26Or at least as many. Including tush pushes. Now that doesn't necessarily make McKee a better option for Devontae Smith.
3:32But it does mean that this offense could look a little bit different than it did with Jalen Hurts.
3:39And look, the bottom line here, Devontae Smith is really good at football.
3:43The underlying numbers are still really good. He currently ranks second in the NFL in target share behind only Jackson Smith and Jigba.
3:51And according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers, Philadelphia wide receivers, they have the fourth best schedule over the next four weeks.
3:58They also have the fourth best schedule rest of season.
4:02The bottom line here, Devontae Smith is a very good player who's commanding a massive share of his offense.
4:08The Eagles might not have the ceiling that we thought they'd have entering the season.
4:13Losing Hurts is not a good thing. And by the way, that whole situation is madness and I hope he gets well soon.
4:21But with the underlying usage for Devontae Smith and the good schedule ahead, I would be holding tight.
4:26Add Omar Cooper. The Jets are a tough offense to trust.
4:30They ranked just 21st in EPA per play this year, their bottom half of the league in most passing metrics.
4:37They've also got a lot of weapons in that offense.
4:40You have Garrett Wilson, you have Brees Hall when he's healthy, you have A.D.
4:45Mitchell when he's healthy, and obviously you have the rookies, Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper.
4:50With that being said, it's not a bad idea to throw that dart at Omar Cooper this week.
4:56He returned from injury in week 6, he immediately saw a 79% route share, and he led the Jets with a 24% target share.
5:04Now, matchup likely played a role in that usage.
5:07But we're talking about a highly drafted rookie who's been targeted on nearly 30% of his routes in the limited sample this year.
5:14I know what you're thinking. JJ, you were saying this about Kenyon Sadiq just a few weeks ago.
5:20Yes, I was. My general rule of thumb is that anytime we see a rookie do something in fantasy football, whether it
5:27be peripherals or actual production, I want to at least consider adding that player off the waiver wire.
5:33Especially if the draft capital really backs them. It's not always going to work out.
5:38In fact, most of the time it won't work out.
5:42But this is how you stay a week ahead with a player like Jeremy Bernard.
5:47Just do be aware that our adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers, they have the Jets wide receivers facing the second toughest schedule rest of season.
5:55Between that, the offensive environment, consistent production, is going to be pretty difficult for Omar Cooper more than likely.
6:01But Cooper's got talent and he has target earning ability.
6:05That makes him worth a speculative ad. Sell Bryce Young.
6:08If you've listened to my show over the last month, you're probably thinking that I'm a Bryce Young hater.
6:14But that's really not the case, I promise you.
6:17What the Panthers are doing right now is perfect for fantasy football.
6:21Their pass rate over expected continues to rank near the top of the league.
6:26They funnel their targets to two really, really good wide receivers.
6:29Bryce Young is throwing it deep at a top 10 rate.
6:33This transaction is not being dismissive of what this Panthers offense is doing.
6:37And how well Bryce Young is playing. But let's look at the production.
6:42Bryce Young currently ranks second in the NFL in passing fantasy points per game.
6:46He trails only Jared Goff. He's averaging 20.4 fantasy points per game with his arm alone.
6:52That sounds all good and fun until you realize that only two quarterbacks have averaged more than 20 fantasy points per game
6:59via passing over a full season over the last three years.
7:03One of those players was Matthew Stafford from 2025.
7:06He had a 7.7% touchdown rate. The other one was Joe Burrow in 2024, who posted a well above average 6.6% touchdown rate on 652 attempts.
7:14It's really difficult to maintain this type of production.
7:17And then you look at the schedule. According to our adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers, Young has faced the sixth easiest quarterback schedule in fantasy football this year.
7:26Every opponent that he's faced has ranked in the easier half of the league for opposing quarterbacks.
7:32That's about to change though. Carolina has the second toughest quarterback schedule from here on out.
7:37Again, that's according to our numbers. You can get those in the members hub over on lateround.com.
7:43During the fantasy playoffs, they get the Bengals, Steelers, and Seahawks.
7:47Two of those matchups are pretty tough on paper.
7:50Again, this is not me saying that the Panthers offense is bad.
7:54I still think they're going to be useful for fantasy purposes.
7:57But there's a difference here between believing in an offense and believing that a quarterback can continue producing at a historically difficult rate.
8:05Young isn't giving you that much on the ground either.
8:08So he's even more dependent on that passing production.
8:11And with the schedule getting a lot tougher, I'd be willing to see what I could get in return for Bryce Young right now.
8:19Add TJ Hawkinson. The Vikings' schedule for the passing game, it looks really good from here on out.
8:25Over the next three games, they get Indianapolis, Detroit, and Buffalo.
8:29The Lions and the Bills have allowed the two highest passing yards per game averages in the league.
8:35And Indy's like a fringe bottom 10 team in that category.
8:38Meanwhile, in the fantasy playoffs, the Vikings get the Lions again, the Commanders, and then the Jets.
8:44So if Kyler Murray's out there, you can add Kyler, for sure.
8:48You could trade for Justin Jefferson if you want to.
8:51But at the very least, I'd be looking to add TJ Hawkinson.
8:55Before his week 5 concussion, Hawkinson ranked third among all NFL tight ends in target share.
9:01Now sure, some of that was due to injury.
9:04Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, they were both banged up.
9:07But even when both of those wide receivers have been on the field, Hawkinson was still commanding close to a 20% target share in the Vikings' offense.
9:16That's good usage for a tight end who's walking into a pretty favorable schedule.
9:20Now you obviously have to monitor that concussion this week.
9:23But Hawkinson's worth snagging off the waiver wire if he's available.
9:27According to our adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers, Minnesota has a top 10 tight end schedule across the rest of the season.
9:34And during the fantasy playoffs, it's the absolute best.
9:37Here's the other thing. Kyler Murray has a 6.5 air yards per attempt rate this year.
9:43He loves to play it safe through the air.
9:46Hawkinson is the perfect outlet for that. That makes this transaction even more favorable.
9:50Buy Jordan Mason. So yeah, like I said, the Vikings have a favorable passing schedule moving forward.
9:56But it's a good schedule for the running backs too.
9:59Jordan Mason's been on IR, but he could return this week.
10:03Since he's been sideline, Aaron Jones has ranked fourth among running backs in snap rate.
10:08He's been fourth in rush share and seventh in route share.
10:12He hasn't been terrible either. Props to him. Among the 42 running backs with at least 30 carries this season, he ranks
10:19a very respectable 23rd in yards after contact per attempt.
10:22But we also have to recognize that Aaron Jones is 31 years old.
10:26And he's posted that production according to our numbers against the league's easiest schedule.
10:31But like I said, the good news for this Minnesota backfield is that this schedule, it's not getting any worse.
10:38It's not getting tougher. According to our adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers, Vikings running backs are the fifth best rest of season
10:45schedule and the second best one over the next four weeks.
10:49And that's obviously where Jordan Mason comes in. He may not be a huge pass catcher, but he was expected to see
10:56significant work in this offense entering the year. In week one, he carried the ball 15 times.
11:02He finished with 11 and a half expected PPR points.
11:05Minnesota's defense looks awesome. The Vikings should find themselves in more neutral and positive game scripts.
11:10And that should favor an early down bruiser like Jordan Mason.
11:14And look, Aaron Jones is still going to mix in.
11:17Don't get me wrong. This isn't about Mason suddenly taking over the entire backfield.
11:22It's about sending something small to acquire a running back who can give you some standalone usability at a position where that's incredibly difficult to find.
11:30And let's be honest, it's not like Aaron Jones is a 25 year old in his prime running back.
11:37Just do be aware that there are some trade rumors swirling that the Vikings could add another running back.
11:43I'd still bet on that not happening. You could also use that in your negotiations to get a better price on Jordan Mason.
11:51Add Jonah Coleman. Jonah Coleman is eligible to return from IR in week seven.
11:55I think he's worth a bench flyer. Sean Payton took over play calling duties a couple of weeks ago.
12:02Also, we've seen the Broncos give J.K. Dobbins a 63% and 62% rush share over those two games.
12:08From weeks one through four, Dobbins reached a 60% rush share just once.
12:12Now keep this in mind though. The Broncos have run just 9.6% of their plays over the last two weeks while trailing by seven or more points.
12:21Across the first month of the season, that rate was 53%.
12:24It's a lot easier to give your early down running back more work when you're playing in a neutral and positive game script.
12:32And despite that increased workload, it's not like J.K.
12:35Dobbins is really earning it. Because he has not been that effective.
12:39Among running backs with at least 20 carries over the last two weeks, only Amari and Hampton has a worse success rate.
12:46And then Hampton and Tyler Algier, they're the only two running backs who rank below Dobbins in yards after contact per attempt.
12:54Guys, the truth is J.K. Dobbins has struggled all season long.
12:57And given that, it doesn't seem so crazy to suggest that Jonah Coleman could eventually prove to be the better option in that backfield.
13:05There's no guarantee that happens obviously. But we're talking about a bench stash here.
13:10But Coleman could return very soon. And Denver, they have one of the best remaining running back schedules according to our numbers.
13:17That's why Coleman's worth adding. Add Jalen Knoll. Fantasy managers are looking at that Jalen Knoll stat line in week six.
13:24And they're really, really excited. I mean, I talked to a lot of members on Discord about this.
13:30They assumed that you were going to have to spend up to get Jalen Knoll this week.
13:36But this is exactly why we have to look at peripherals.
13:39I love Jalen Knoll. I think he's really underutilized in that Houston offense.
13:44I've called him out many times on this show already this season.
13:48But the truth is, that performance in week six, it was kind of fluky.
13:52Now to be fair, we have seen this shift in Knoll's deployment over the last few weeks.
13:58From weeks one to three, Xavier Hutchinson ran more routes than Knoll in every single game.
14:03But over the last three weeks, that's completely flipped.
14:06Knoll's run 60 routes. Hutchinson is at 38. The problem though, is that Knoll's route share is still just 57% over that time.
14:14And even on Sunday, where he had four catches, 107 yards, he had a 60% route share.
14:19He had a 12.5% target share. Nothing really changed from a usage perspective.
14:24But look, I love Jalen Knoll, the talent. He's an ad based on the talent alone.
14:29And hey, maybe this performance leads to something more in that offense.
14:33There's reason to believe that Houston could lean really heavily on the pass moving forward.
14:38They ranked top 10 in pass rate over expected over the last three weeks.
14:43And they added Marvin Harrison Jr. I just want to be level-headed here.
14:47I want to be reasonable. And I know that I can sometimes be unreasonable when it comes to Jalen Knoll.
14:54I think you can add him, but temper your expectations.
14:57Buy Bucky Irving. Bucky Irving's usage has been all over the place this season.
15:02Let's start with the ground game work. In week one, he had a 42% rush share.
15:07He followed that up with a 68% one, 71%, 52%, 57%.
15:11And then in week six, it was 76% a season high.
15:14Now let's look at his route shares. In weeks one and two, they were 58% and 60%.
15:20From weeks three through five, he never topped 34%.
15:23But then in week six, it shot up to 64%.
15:26It's just totally unpredictable. His snap share has been all over the place too.
15:31During that same stretch from week three through week five, he had a snap share that hovered around 55%.
15:37But in week six, his snap share was almost 85%.
15:40This is all to say that Irving is kind of a volatile piece to add to your roster.
15:46But sometimes you need that. Baker Mayfield might be back soon.
15:50And if Irving's week six usage holds, that could be massive for his fantasy production.
15:55On the season, Jalen Daniels, he's targeted his running backs on only 15% of his attempts.
16:00Baker Mayfield has given his running backs a 26% target share.
16:04So if Irving continues running routes at a high rate, he's going to see more work as a receiver.
16:10He's going to be a lot more useful in fantasy football.
16:14But of course, there are caveats. Sean Tucker was out in week six.
16:18That probably helped Irving's overall workload. And when Tucker's healthy, he's still involved in that short yardage stuff.
16:24So Irving might have a difficult time being like a true RB1 in fantasy football, given those opportunities at the goal line.
16:31But don't let Irving's week six box score fool you.
16:35He scored just 6.9 PPR points, but he had 13.3 expected PPR points.
16:39He's now scored fewer than eight PPR points in three of his last four games.
16:44That's really the reason I'd be buying right now.
16:47Because if a manager out there is frustrated, the usage for Irving is much better than the actual production.
16:53And like I said, Baker Mayfield, he could be back soon.
16:57And then on top of that, their schedule doesn't look that bad either.
17:01So right now could be a good buy low opportunity.
17:05Add Seth McGowan. So like I said earlier, it's not the best week in the world for ads.
17:11But you should still be trying to improve your roster.
17:14And one way to do that is to add Seth McGowan.
17:17He's actually carved out a small role in this Colts offense, even with Jonathan Taylor staying healthy all season.
17:24Over the first three weeks of the year, McGowan had a 7% rush share and an 11% snap share.
17:30Since then, those numbers have jumped up to 18% and 25% respectively.
17:34Now that's not enough to make him a reliable fantasy option on his own.
17:39But it's encouraging for a player whose primary value comes from what can happen if that backfield changes.
17:45And speaking of changes, Chris Ballard was fired as Colts general manager.
17:49With that front office shakeup, it's at least worth wondering.
17:52I don't think it's going to happen. But it's at least worth wondering if the Colts would trade away Jonathan Taylor.
17:59Because this team is not going to be competitive in 2026.
18:03So this is just to say that there's one more out for Seth McGowan to see more work in this backfield.
18:10At the very least, you're going to add a handcuff who would probably see a pretty good workload if that starter got hurt.
18:17Add Mike Washington. So if Mike Washington is available in your league, he's a better add than Seth McGowan.
18:23Because he's seeing significantly more work in his offense.
18:26Ashton Gentry has not been great on the ground this year.
18:30Among the 33 running backs with at least 50 carries this season, Gentry ranks 30th in success rate, 30th in yards per
18:37carry, 29th in 10 plus yard run rate, and 19th in yards after contact per attempt.
18:43Now if you listened to last week's mailbag episode, I ran through some historical comps for Gentry.
18:48I looked at running backs since 2016 who had similar backfield usage, receiving workloads, and rushing efficiency through the first 5 weeks of the season.
18:57And the takeaway from that was kind of interesting.
19:00Many of those players remained viable in fantasy football from week 6 onward.
19:04And nearly all of them improved on their efficiency.
19:07But the problem was they started to lose work in their backfields.
19:11That might have contributed to those improved per touch numbers.
19:14And we started to see that happen immediately in week 6 with Ashton Gentry.
19:19Mike Washington had a 45% rush share for the Raiders on Sunday.
19:23That was easily a season high. He had a 33% snap share, also a season high.
19:28Now, Washington doesn't play much of a pass catching role.
19:31Gentry's got that locked down. And if Gentry were to miss time, we'd see Dylan Laube play a lot of that role.
19:39But the shift in this backfield usage should not be ignored.
19:42Gentry's been banged up since August and Washington has shown more explosiveness on the ground this year.
19:48There's at least a reasonable chance that Washington keeps carving out a role, even with a healthy Ashton Gentry.
19:54So at worst, Mike Washington's a handcuff. At best, he becomes a usable flex option during this stretch of bye weeks.
20:01Drop or sell Kirk Cousins. So speaking of the Raiders, they're 3-3 right now.
20:06I don't think anyone expected that, even after losing three straight games.
20:10And Kirk Cousins has played competently. He's been a high-end QB2, low-end QB1 in fantasy football this year.
20:16But unfortunately, things are about to get pretty tough for this passing attack.
20:20From now until the end of the year, the Raiders will face just one team that ranks in the top 10 as
20:27a favorable quarterback matchup by adjusted points allowed. That's not going to come until week 17 when they face the Cardinals.
20:34We don't even know if Kirk Cousins is going to be starting by then.
20:39Over their next nine games, the Raiders face just one opponent that ranks in the more favorable half of the league for quarterbacks.
20:47That opponent's Cleveland, who currently ranks 16th entering Monday Night Football and adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks.
20:52There's also some reason to expect regression in the touchdown department.
20:56So far this season, over 82% of Las Vegas' offensive touchdowns have come through the air.
21:01Only four teams since 2016 have finished the season with a passing touchdown share that high.
21:07So it's going to be a difficult pace for Kirk Cousins to maintain.
21:11Especially with this tougher schedule. So if you're in a league that values quarterbacks, maybe you can sell Kirk Cousins this week.
21:18He had another usable performance against the Bills. Otherwise, he's someone that I think in a normal 12-team league, where there are
21:25other starting quarterbacks on the waiver wire, he's someone that's reasonable to drop.
21:30Add Chig Akonkwo and Antonio Williams. Terry McLaurin played six snaps on Monday night, and then he suffered a brutal injury that
21:37looks like it's going to sideline him for the season.
21:40Though that's not confirmed right now. After McLaurin went down, the commanders really mixed things up with their pass catchers.
21:47But Chig Akonkwo, he led the way with an impressive 78% route share after that McLaurin injury.
21:53He had a 22% target share. And then Antonio Williams, he was second on the team in routes run after that McLaurin injury.
22:00Chig Akonkwo's route participation is really good for the tight end position.
22:04So he's definitely someone that you should be looking at off the waiver wire this week.
22:09And then I think Antonio Williams is just a really intriguing prospect.
22:13He's shown some flashes this season, and don't forget in the zap model, one of his top comps was Ladd McConkie.
22:20You can look at Trelon Burks too, but do note that he was banged up towards the end of that game.
22:27But overall, the two guys I'm prioritizing, Chig Akonkwo and Antonio Williams.
22:31Add Terrence Ferguson. So Terrence Ferguson is eligible to come off of IR in week 8.
22:37It sounds like he'll be ready to go. Shortly after Ferguson suffered his injury, Sean McVay indicated that he'd be good to go following his four-week absence.
22:46And that could be a really big deal, because it was announced on Monday that Devontae Adams is expected to miss 6-10 weeks with a hamstring injury.
22:55With Adams on the field this season, the Rams have operated out of 11 personnel on 75% of their plays.
23:01Nearly all of their remaining snaps have come out of 12 and 13 personnel.
23:06Without Adams though, their 13 personnel rate skyrockets to 86.4%.
23:09I can't even describe to you guys how high that is.
23:13And obviously when there are three tight ends on the field, tight ends are the ones who are benefiting.
23:19When Devontae Adams has been off the field this year, Rams tight ends have a 31.4% target share.
23:25That trails only the Raiders, Cardinals and Giants. And the most talented, pure pass-catching tight end on that team, in my opinion, is Terrence Ferguson.
23:33I think there's a non-zero chance that while Devontae Adams is out, that Terrence Ferguson is second on this team in targets.
23:41Behind obviously Pukunakua. That's a pretty big deal in an offense led by Matthew Stafford.
23:46So obviously this week if Terrence Ferguson is still on your waiver wire, you've gotta add him.
23:51Add the Cleveland Browns defense. So the Browns get the Titans in week 7.
23:56That game's in Tennessee, has a 38.5 point total, and Cleveland is a 1.5 point road favorite.
24:02So it's a pretty favorable spot for the defense.
24:04On the season, Tennessee ranks the 5th worst team in EPA per play.
24:09They've also turned the ball over at an above average rate, and their bottom half of the league in pressure rate allowed.
24:16So between the low game total and Tennessee's offensive struggles, the Browns look like a good streaming defense.
24:22I've got a very quick bonus transaction for you.
24:25It's to add Christian Kirk. The 49ers are running out of pass catchers, and of the ones who are remaining, who have
24:32gotten run, no one's really stepped up. Things got even worse on Monday night.
24:37Mike Evans left that game in the late second quarter with an Achilles injury, and he was rolled out during the second half.
24:45So if Evans misses time, give Christian Kirk a look.
24:48His practice window recently opened after being on IR, but he wasn't able to suit up in week 6.
24:54If he's ready to return soon, he could be walking into an offense that really needs someone to emerge.
25:01And given how little we've seen from San Francisco's healthy wide receivers, why not take kind of a vibes-based approach and go with Christian Kirk?
25:09Maybe he can bring a little magic to this offense.
25:12That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
25:16If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are messaging for it.
25:22Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky, at LateRoundQB.
25:29Thanks for listening everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow with the weekly 10 Trends episode.
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