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0:57What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyson. This is the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
1:02Thanks for tuning in. Before I get to the transactions this week, I just want to remind you guys about the new
1:09data dump show on the Late-Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel.
1:13Every Monday morning at 11 a.m. Eastern, Brandon Gadula and David Kitchen, they're live on the channel talking about the week's major injuries, usage trends and more.
1:22It's exclusively on YouTube, so make sure you subscribe.
1:25YouTube.com slash at Late-Round FF. Add Woody Marks. So Woody Marks has been a staple on the sleeper show this year.
1:32Because he usually gets some work each week, but it's not enough work for a lot of people to pick him up off the waiver wire.
1:41So he's available for that show. But more work could be coming his way because David Montgomery left week 5's matchup against the Titans with a groin injury.
1:50Marks ended up playing every offensive snap after David Montgomery left that game.
1:54Well, all but one. He didn't play the quarterback Neil's snap.
1:58And say what you want about Marks as a talent.
2:01He's been the better running back in this backfield this year.
2:05Marks and Montgomery have identical yards before contact per attempt rates.
2:09But Marks has outperformed Montgomery in yards after contact per attempt.
2:123.07 to 2.27. Marks also has a 35% success rate.
2:16Montgomery's 25%. If Montgomery's sidelined, I'm expecting Marks to see close to a bell cow workload in this offense.
2:22Now, it's not the best offensive situation in the world.
2:26In upcoming, they get Jacksonville. But opportunity is opportunity.
2:29Especially at running back. Right now, Marks is still available in 47% of Yahoo leagues.
2:34So you gotta add him this week off the wire.
2:37Sell Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt. Sometimes transactions like this one are necessary.
2:41Fantasy managers, they understandably get excited when a player that they liked in the preseason, back in August, when that player finally has a decent game.
2:49And Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt, he scored 14.2 PPR points on Sunday.
2:53The problem is that the usage still wasn't there.
2:56Rashad White was the one who led that backfield with 36 snaps against the Giants.
3:01Krosky Merritt, he was at 21. Friend of the show, Austin Eckler, he was at 6.
3:07Based on his workload, Krosky Merritt had an expected PPR point total of just 5.2 points.
3:12He just happened to outperform that by 9 points.
3:15Because he had that nice touchdown run. The bottom line is that this is not a profile of a reliable fantasy running back.
3:23The only game where Krosky Merritt saw more than one target was when Rashad White was sidelined.
3:28Washington wants to split up this backfield. And now they have Austin Eckler.
3:33He's just making it even more convoluted. And the upcoming schedule, that's not doing him any favors either.
3:39Over the next four weeks, the Commanders get the 49ers, a bye week, the Eagles, and then the Rams.
3:45All three of those opponents rank as bottom 10 matchups for running backs by adjusted fantasy points allowed.
3:51It's just really hard to buy this as a reliable performance.
3:55Add Keenan Allen. So Alec Pierce has been out since week two.
3:59He left that week two game against the Chiefs early.
4:02Since then, Keenan Allen has seen a 21.3% target share in this Colts offense.
4:07And in two games where Pierce has been completely sidelined with Allen active, so weeks three and five, Allen's target share has been 23%.
4:15His expected PPR points per game average is 16.3.
4:18Now for the record, Josh Downs has seen a 22% target share in those two games.
4:24He's averaged 16.9 expected PPR points per game. That's in week three and week five.
4:29Allen's averaging 13.9 PPR points per game over those two contests, actual points per game.
4:34And yet no one's really talking about him. Instead, a lot of the conversation has been hovered around Josh Downs and how
4:41he's performed over the last two games. But the truth is there's been some value in this passing game.
4:47And according to our numbers, Indianapolis wide receivers have an above average schedule rest of season.
4:53So Allen needs to be rostered in more leagues and Josh Downs does not need to be dropped.
4:59I'm seeing a lot of people talk about that.
5:02I understand he didn't perform this past week, but like I talked about last week, his matchup against the Steelers wasn't that great.
5:10The fantasy football season is going to be all over the place.
5:14Most players in fantasy are not going to give you great production week in and week out.
5:19That doesn't make them drop worthy though. So add Keenan Allen and hold on to Josh Downs.
5:25By Carnell Tate. So the Houston Texans entered the season with a top ranked secondary.
5:30Over the first month of the season, they really, really, really underperformed.
5:34Maybe their performance on Sunday was more of a Titans thing.
5:38We know the Titans passing attack isn't very good.
5:41But I also think that the Texans secondary is probably good.
5:45It's probably decent. And they played well in week five.
5:48And that's allowing me to be a little bit more forgiving of Carnell Tate's performance where he catches one of five targets for six yards.
5:56His 14% target share. That was the lowest of his season.
6:00It was the first time that number dipped below 20% all season long.
6:04But that's also the point. Tate's a bye candidate because the matchup, it might end up looking tougher once the season's over.
6:12But aside from that game, he's already shown us that he can command a high target share in this offense.
6:19One disappointing performance doesn't just erase that. Even with Sunday's 14% target share, he has a 25.9% target share on the season.
6:26Among all rookie wide receivers since 2016, only four of them have commanded a higher target share across the first five weeks of the season.
6:34Drake London, Puka Nakua, Malik Neighbors, and Zay Flowers.
6:37The names immediately behind Carnell Tate are Chris Alave, Marvin Harrison Jr., Tedaroa McMillan, and Jamar Chase.
6:43That's pretty good company. Now the Tennessee offense is obviously very hard to buy into.
6:48I totally understand that. The Titans are last in the NFL with just six offensive touchdowns this year.
6:54Only nine teams since 2016 have scored fewer touchdowns through the first five games.
6:59But keep this in mind too. At Tennessee's current pace of 1.2 offensive touchdowns per game, they would finish the season with just 20 or 21 touchdowns.
7:08That's happened only twice since 2016. In other words, even if we can't envision this offense getting that much better, I understand it doesn't look good.
7:17Chances are they are going to score more touchdowns per game moving forward.
7:21But not only that, according to adjusted fantasy points allowed, Tennessee has a top 10 wide receiver schedule both over the next four weeks and rest of season.
7:30There's obviously risk in trading for Carnell Tate. We're talking about a rookie wide receiver and a really bad offense.
7:37But hopefully you can mitigate that risk by sending away players that you're not really using in fantasy football anyway.
7:44Because the underlying profile here is still really encouraging.
7:47Add Jeremy Bernard. Michael Pittman was placed on IR before week five's matchup against the Colts.
7:52He didn't get his revenge game. And then Roman Wilson, he left that game late in the first half with a finger injury.
8:00He's now expected to miss at least this week.
8:03So enter Jeremy Bernard. Here's the thing. Bernard was already seeing a really good workload before that Wilson injury happened.
8:10Last week, if you listen to this show, I had touted Wilson as someone who had a great matchup against the Colts.
8:17Indianapolis had been terrible against slot receivers. And when Pittman was sidelined back in week two, Wilson operated as Pittsburgh's primary slot guy.
8:25That had largely been his role all season. Well, in week five, that actually flipped.
8:30Even with Wilson healthy and on the field, Bernard was the one playing that role.
8:35Before Wilson's injury, Bernard had a 25% target share in that Steelers offense.
8:39He was getting the kind of deployment that I thought Wilson was going to see.
8:44And honestly, to me, that's a natural spot for Jeremy Bernard.
8:48He projected as like a tackle breaking slot receiver coming out of college.
8:52He had some interesting versatility to his analytical profile.
8:56I liked him as a prospect. So Bernard's week five performance wasn't all that surprising to me.
9:01He was a good prospect. He was playing the role that I thought Wilson was going to play.
9:07And it was an advantageous matchup. And the result was that Bernard caught six of nine targets for 80 yards.
9:14Now with Wilson expected to miss time, Bernard should have an opportunity to build on that performance.
9:20And Pittsburgh right now, they're second in the NFL and pass rate over expected.
9:24There's opportunity in this offense. Hopefully you already have Bernard on your roster because I talked about this on last week's late round fantasy football show.
9:33That's a little promotion for you. But if you didn't get him, you should be adding him this week.
9:40Add Damian Pierce. So Saquon Barkley's injured. Tank Bigsby's injured.
9:43And now Will Shipley's injured. Next up is Damian Pierce, hopefully not to get injured.
9:48But Shipley left Sunday's game early. And after his exit, Pierce played every Philadelphia Eagles offensive snap.
9:54Carson Steele was active for that game, but Damian Pierce saw everything.
9:58Now we'll see what the Eagles do with the position this week.
10:02Maybe Jaden Blue gets called up from the practice squad.
10:05Maybe they find another body to throw back there this week.
10:09But based on week five's usage, Pierce is clearly the guy that you want to look at off the waiver wire.
10:16I just wouldn't go nuts trying to acquire him.
10:19Saquon Barkley should be back at some point. And there's no guarantee that Pierce is going to see that snap share once again.
10:27But the short term is intriguing. Philadelphia gets Carolina and Dallas over their next two games.
10:32Those are decent matchups, especially versus the one they just had against Jacksonville.
10:36A running back who has a path to touches?
10:39He's worth adding. Sell Jamison Williams. Jamison Williams is a straight up roller coaster.
10:44Not just with his production, but how the market just generally views him.
10:48Now I was lower on him during draft season versus consensus.
10:52But then I saw an early season window where I considered him a buy.
10:57But then after his week five performance, I see a sell window.
11:01Like I said, just all over the place. Now trading away a player who's involved in an offense that currently leads the NFL in offensive touchdowns?
11:10That sounds like a bad idea. But my question to you is, is Jamison Williams really that involved?
11:16He currently has a 15% target share in this Detroit offense.
11:1915.4%. That ranks outside the top 50 at wide receiver.
11:23And yeah, he's never been a high target share player.
11:26But he was at 18.5% last year and 18.8% in 2024.
11:30So even by his own standards, this Drew Petsing offense has not been good for Jamo from a target earning perspective.
11:37And it's not as though week five gave us some reason to believe that things are changing.
11:43Yes, he had a strong fantasy performance, but his target share was still just 14%.
11:48Williams currently ranks 33rd at wide receiver in expected PPR points per game.
11:52So we're talking about a player who's still capable of giving you that spiked week, of course.
11:58But his underlying usage isn't that great. And now coming off a strong outing against a really bad defense, there's a chance
12:05that someone in your league is willing to pay up for that upside.
12:09And not only that, as good as Detroit's been, and the schedule's not bad rest of season.
12:15I think the offense is going to be a top five offense this season.
12:20But I don't think that we can just bank on them being the number one team in offensive touchdowns all year long.
12:27Odds are they won't finish that way. And so the fact that Jamo hasn't been that productive in this offense already, what
12:35happens if that offense just takes a little step back?
12:38That's what's scary about Jamison Williams. Add Ryan Flannoy.
12:41CeeDee Lamb was not 100% during Thursday night's game against the Bucs.
12:45And while it's very possible he doesn't miss any time, it's not a bad idea to look at Ryan Flannoy off the waiver wire this week.
12:54Flannoy has run 36 routes without CeeDee Lamb on the field this year.
12:58He's seen a really strong 25% targets per out run rate when Lamb's been off the field.
13:04That's only three percentage points behind George Pickens' rate in that exact same situation.
13:09Both wideouts without CeeDee Lamb have seen a 25% target share.
13:12So we're obviously dealing with a small sample here.
13:15But those are encouraging numbers for a player who could see an expanded role if Lamb does miss time.
13:22And with Dallas facing a beatable Packers defense in week 6, that type of usage could really go a long way.
13:29Add Samajay Pirine. I'm not going to lie, I'm getting a little deja vu right now.
13:34I understand that a lot of us were expecting possible RB1 production from Chase Brown this year.
13:40And he's under-delivered so far. And now there's a lot of panic.
13:44Because look at what happened in week 5. Against the Dolphins, Pirine played just 6 fewer snaps than Chase Brown.
13:51He out-carried him 14-13. Brown finished with a season low 42% rush share.
13:55His previous low was 60%. One of the things being lost in this discussion though is that Brown fumbled in the second quarter of that game.
14:04Before that fumble, Chase Brown had a 75% snap share in the Cincinnati offense.
14:08After the fumble, that dropped to 49%. Now I don't know for sure how this backfield is going to be split week in and week out moving forward.
14:18That's why Pirine's an ad this week. It's not like Brown's been overly effective as a runner this year either.
14:25Among 31 running backs with at least 50 carries this season, Brown ranks dead last in yards after contact per attempt.
14:32And he's 27th in success rate. What's really funny about that though, and why I'm getting deja vu, is that through 5
14:39weeks last year, Brown ranked 27th in yards after contact per attempt and he was dead last in success rate among 29
14:46running backs with at least 50 carries. And yeah, that offense was different.
14:51There were some quarterback issues. But it's at least a little bit comforting if you have Chase Brown.
14:57It's comforting knowing that he turned his season around last year and he was a high-end RB1 rest of season.
15:04Maybe things don't play out the exact same way.
15:07Again, that's why we're adding Samajay Pirine. We're looking at the range of outcomes here.
15:12Maybe the Bengals want to use Pirine a little bit more.
15:15If that's the case, he could have some standalone value.
15:19And at the very least, if you're adding him this week, he's a handcuff too.
15:24Just do be aware that the Bengals are on a bye.
15:27Add a Cleveland Browns running back. Really helpful, right?
15:31When I do this show each week, I don't have perfect information.
15:35I wish I did because it would make my life a whole lot easier.
15:39But I don't know who's in and who's out each week when I do this show.
15:45So let's look at this Browns backfield real quick.
15:48Quinshawn Judkins got hurt against the Jets. He was seen in a walking boot after the game.
15:53That's not great. In a pre-week 5 world, I would be sitting here telling you to add Raheem Sanders.
16:00And then go from there. The problem is that he has a hip injury.
16:04So his status is up in the air too.
16:07Okay, next man up, Jaleel McLaughlin. And yeah, you could do that.
16:12Throw a dollar at McLaughlin this week. The problem is that if it gets to that point, Cleveland's probably going to add another body to that backfield.
16:21We don't know what his workload would really look like.
16:24And then there's also this, Dylan Sampson. Remember him?
16:27His practice window might open this week. He's been on IR all year with a knee injury.
16:33So this is just all over the place. If everyone were healthy outside of Judkins, I'd expect Sampson to handle some of
16:40that early down work while also being their pass catching back.
16:44And then Sanders would be mixing in on the early down stuff as well.
16:49Don't forget, Sampson had a pretty good rookie season.
16:52We just don't know if Sampson's going to be ready.
16:55We don't know if Sanders is going to be available.
16:58It's just too early in the week to really know.
17:02But what you should know is to keep an eye on the news and see what's going on with the Browns' backfield.
17:09Because you might want to add one of them off the waiver wire this week.
17:14By Jalen Hurts. No one wanted to hear that.
17:17No one probably expected to hear that. Because this Philadelphia Eagles offense has been an absolute dumpster fire.
17:23But look, I'm not sitting here telling you to send something significant to the Jalen Hurts manager.
17:29Just see if you can get him. A player that someone might legitimately be thinking about dropping right now.
17:35See if you can get Hurts for something really small.
17:39Especially if you've just been streaming quarterbacks. I'm fully aware that the Eagles offensive line is a mess.
17:45That Jalen Hurts is banged up. That the backfield is banged up.
17:49And that Devontae Smith is banged up. So why on earth would we buy into this?
17:54Well, my question to you is should we assume that things are going to be this way all season long?
18:01The offensive line could improve as the group just gets more experience together.
18:05Devontae Smith is not out for the season. Jalen Hurts himself could also get healthier.
18:10Things could get easier with the offense just in general because it's a new system.
18:15They're going to learn this system and be better at it as the season goes on.
18:21Hypothetically. None of those things are guaranteed, obviously. But there are reasonable paths to improvement.
18:26And that Devontae Smith piece in particular, that's pretty important.
18:29On the season, Jalen Hurts, he's averaging just .38 fantasy points per drop back when Devontae Smith is off the field.
18:36Among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts, that would rank 21st behind Malik Willis.
18:41When Smith has been on the field though, that number jumps to .50.
18:45That ranks 8th best. And there's also some reason to believe that Jalen Hurts hasn't forgotten how to throw a football.
18:52His completion rate on throws that travel 10 or more air yards, it's 7th best in the NFL.
18:58He's just been bottom 3 in completion rate on throws from 0 to 10 air yards.
19:04So not everything has been an absolute disaster. And look, this transaction, it's not about betting on the most likely outcome.
19:11The most likely outcome is probably that the Eagles offense doesn't do very well rest of season.
19:16Hurts ends up being more of like a streaming quarterback.
19:20But fantasy football, it's not always about acquiring players whose median outcomes are really exciting.
19:25Sometimes it's about finding situations where the potential reward is significantly greater than the risk that you're taking on.
19:31That's what this is. And with the Panthers, Cowboys, Commanders, and Giants upcoming, all really strong matchups for quarterbacks by adjusted fantasy
19:39points allowed, Jalen Hurts has a chance to turn things around in the very near future.
19:44If it costs you next to nothing to find out whether he can turn things around, why not take a shot?
19:51Add Kendra Miller. With Travis Hinn on IR, we haven't really gotten that much clarity in the Saints backfield.
19:57In week 5, Kendra Miller led that backfield with a 59% rush share.
20:02The issue is that they saw a negative game script and CJ Donaldson, he's playing on passing downs.
20:08He led the team in backfield snaps. The good news though is that the Saints get the Giants in week 6 and they're 1.5 point road favorites.
20:17A more neutral game environment could allow Miller to be useful.
20:21Add Brenton Strange. So I considered putting friend of the show Kendrick Bourne in this spot, so if you want to go in that direction, feel free.
20:30I'll have more on that Arizona situation on the 10 trends episode.
20:34But as you heard, we're going with Brenton Strange.
20:37Strange currently ranks 10th among all NFL tight ends in routes share this year, despite playing in a relatively crowded Jacksonville offense.
20:44He has a 19% target share. He's 6th among tight ends in expected PPR points per game over the last 3 weeks.
20:52So I definitely think that Brenton Strange should be rostered in more leagues.
20:56Add Aaron Rodgers. Regression is eventually going to hit this Steelers offense.
21:00Nearly 91% of Pittsburgh's offensive touchdowns have come through the air this year.
21:04No team has finished a season with a passing touchdown share that high since at least 2016.
21:10After a disappointing start though, Aaron Rodgers has now thrown 3 touchdowns in each of his last 3 games.
21:16And while we should expect that pace to slow down a little bit, his schedule, his situation, they still suggest that he can be a reasonable streamer.
21:26He can be a guy that you can platoon with another quarterback.
21:30Look at the schedule. Pittsburgh gets Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and Cleveland over their next 3 games before heading into their bye.
21:37Those aren't exactly amazing matchups, but when looking at median opponent, the Steelers have the 10th best quarterback schedule over the next 4 weeks.
21:45Second, you look at the situation. Say what you want about the personnel in Pittsburgh, they're throwing the ball.
21:51Only Cincinnati has a higher pass rate over expected this year, and only the Bengals and Panthers have thrown at a higher rate in neutral situations.
22:00Now, do I think Rodgers is something you can just plug into your lineup every single week no matter what?
22:07No. But can he be a decent QB 2 in a platoon?
22:11Or a streaming quarterback? Yes. Add the Kansas City Chiefs defense.
22:15The Chiefs are coming off a bye and they've got a meeting with the Chargers who currently rank dead last in the NFL and EPA per play.
22:24LA is dealing with injuries all across their roster, especially in the offensive line.
22:28They've now allowed the 4th highest pressure rate in football this season, and no team has turned the ball over more.
22:35The Chiefs are 8.5 point home favorites. They're an easy streaming choice.
22:39That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
22:44If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are messaging for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found.
22:52And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
22:57Thanks for listening everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow with the weekly 10 trends episode.
23:02This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human.