Late-Round Perspectives: Eric Balkman
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 5 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 16, 2026
Published
Fri, October 16, 2026
20
Player insights
18
Players mentioned
Topics
Jaylen WaddleMarShawn LloydArian FosterBrian RobinsonCeeDee LambDak PrescottGeorge PickensJames RobinsonJonathan TaylorJordan LoveJosh JacobsLuther BurdenMalik NabersParker Washington
Player analysis
Player insights
Arian Foster
PositiveBreakout31:45
Eric Balkman cited Arian Foster as a historical example of a legitimate hype train that should not have been ignored. Foster was available in the sixth or seventh round but went on to finish as the fantasy running back one that season. Ignoring the hype train on Foster cost fantasy managers leagues.
Insight pageBrian Robinson
PositiveValue46:06
JJ Zachariason highlights Brian Robinson as a handcuff target in rest-of-season rankings, noting that as the season progresses and early-round picks underperform, handcuffs like Robinson become increasingly valuable assets compared to hopeful 10th-round wide receivers that fail to produce.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveProjection62:00
Balkman's bold prediction for Week 6 includes CeeDee Lamb posting a 130-yard game alongside George Pickens, marking the first time both receivers achieve that yardage in the same game this season.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveProjection61:00
Balkman's bold prediction for Week 6 Packers-Cowboys matchup includes Dak Prescott combining with Jordan Love for eight total touchdown passes in a high-scoring game where both teams score in the forties.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveProjection62:00
Balkman's bold prediction for Week 6 includes George Pickens posting a 130-yard game alongside CeeDee Lamb, marking the first time both receivers achieve that yardage in the same game this season.
Insight pageJames Robinson
PositiveBreakout32:12
Eric Balkman cited James Robinson, the free agent running back from Jacksonville, as another example of a legitimate hype train that should not have been ignored. Robinson's emergence as a productive fantasy asset rewarded those who bought into the preseason hype.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
NegativeBust35:24
JJ Zachariason noted that Jalen Waddle has been a bust thus far this season, but defends his process-based analysis of Waddle entering the year. Zachariason's issue was not with Waddle himself but with the Broncos offense being worse than expected; the Broncos are a bottom-five offense, which was not anticipated. Zachariason does not regret the process of liking Waddle, only the external context.
Insight pageNegativeBust36:55
JJ Zachariason acknowledges Waddle has been a bust thus far in 2024, but argues the process of drafting him was sound given preseason expectations; the underperformance was driven by the Broncos offense being worse than anticipated (bottom-five offensive production) rather than a Waddle-specific talent decline, suggesting the miss was situational rather than a process error.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeRole44:52
Jonathan Taylor's injury status is a key contingency in waiver strategy; if he goes down mid-season, his backup (Seth McGowan) becomes a major priority target, but the timing of acquisition affects the value window for the replacement.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveProjection61:00
Balkman's bold prediction for Week 6 Packers-Cowboys matchup includes Jordan Love combining with Dak Prescott for eight total touchdown passes in a high-scoring game where both teams score in the forties.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeRole57:11
Balkman indicates Josh Jacobs' situation with the Packers is 'going in the wrong direction' in terms of getting on the field; suggests his role is diminishing and he may have run his course in Green Bay, with Pierre Strong receiving more action.
Insight pageLuther Burden
NegativeBreakout34:07
JJ Zachariason expressed strong conviction in Luther Burden as a prospect, independent of hype train narratives. Zachariason liked Burden coming out of school and believes everything since has confirmed his evaluation. While Burden is a fourth or fifth rounder in some leagues, Zachariason's process-based analysis supports leaning into him despite the risk.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveValue30:30
JJ Zachariason used Malik Nabers as a case study in contrarian thinking against market sentiment. After Jackson Dart went down, Zachariason leaned into the idea of going opposite the market; when Nabers had a poor game against Tennessee in rain, he second-guessed himself and brought down his projection, but regrets that decision as Nabers has since performed well over the last two weeks. The lesson: ignoring negative Twitter sentiment and maintaining conviction in a player despite one bad game can pay off.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
PositiveSleeper41:45
Lloyd was not drafted in February at the KFFSC Superbowl Sunday drafting weekend but emerged as a priority waiver acquisition in September; JJ Zachariason won him in the majority of his managed leagues, indicating strong conviction in his value as an undrafted breakout candidate.
Insight pageNegativeUsage41:49
Lloyd is last in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt; Balkman views him as still in his rookie year given nasty injuries and appendectomy over the last couple of years, and expects more polished play next year rather than significant production this season. Lloyd's performance depends on improved offensive line play.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout33:54
JJ Zachariason mentioned Parker Washington as a player he liked this year, and noted that Washington has been performing as expected despite a hype train around him. Zachariason's process-based analysis of Washington proved sound.
Insight pagePierre Strong Jr.
PositiveRole57:51
Pierre Strong received action over Josh Jacobs this week in the Packers backfield, suggesting an emerging role in the offense as Jacobs' usage diminishes.
Insight pageSavion Williams
NegativeSleeper56:50
Balkman stashes Savion Williams on IR in dynasty leagues as a speculative taxi squad hold, viewing him as a gadget player with unpredictable usage. While Williams was used on special teams and occasionally on offense when healthy, Balkman compares him to a 'gadget that falls between the couch cushions'—potentially useful but unreliable. On an active roster, Balkman would look elsewhere unless he can keep Williams free on IR, as the upside is speculative and depends on a rare Cordero Patterson-type breakout.
Insight pageSeth McGowan
PositiveRole44:52
If Jonathan Taylor goes down mid-season (e.g., week 11), Seth McGowan would likely take on a significant role in the Colts offense and warrant a major waiver bid; however, acquiring him late in the season (week 12 onward) limits the value window compared to securing him earlier when you can deploy him for the full remainder of the season.
Insight pageVictor Cruz
PositiveBreakout32:23
Eric Balkman used Victor Cruz as an example of a preseason hype train that proved legitimate. Cruz crushed it in preseason, and despite skeptics dismissing the hype, he went on to have a strong career; it took a knee injury years later to truly end his production. Ignoring the preseason hype would have cost fantasy managers.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Eric Balkman is a content producer at the FFPC who hosts a ton of shows
0:06including the High Stakes Fantasy Football Hour and the Roto-Viz High Stakes Lowdown.
0:09He's a Packers season ticket holder, a loyal Brewers fan, and he's got the most epic beard in the fantasy football space.
0:15These are his Late-Round Perspectives. I feel like complete crap for two reasons right now, JJ.
0:20The first reason is I just rammed some venison summer sausage down my gullet because I was starving and I'm totally regretting that decision right now.
0:27The second is I spent nearly $6,000 a few hours ago on Game 6 and Game 7 World Series tickets for my Milwaukee Brewers.
0:33Wow! It may not get there. It may not get to Game 6, may not get to Game 7.
0:38And quite frankly, it may not like they may not get to the World Series.
0:42They haven't beaten the Dodgers, you know? Yeah. And by the time this airs, we'll know.
0:47But I definitely, you know, it's one of those once in a lifetime things.
0:51Yeah. And I was three years old when the Brewers were in the World Series last time.
0:55Obviously, I don't remember it. And I just remember the feeling of being at Fiserv Forum when the Bucks won the title a few years ago.
1:02Unbelievable. Hopefully, we can replicate that this year. That's awesome.
1:05That's baseball. That's baseball. Nobody cares. Hey, hey, to be fair, to be fair, this is the third straight perspectives episode where we've opened up about baseball.
1:12I had Dave Richard two weeks ago. He was wearing a White Sox jersey.
1:16Obviously, we know unfortunately how things went there. And then Fabs was on last week and he was talking about the Yankees.
1:22And we know how, I mean, by the time he was talking about it, they had already lost.
1:27Yeah. And then now you've got the Brew Crew doing their thing.
1:30I'm just sitting here jealous as a Pirates fan is my thing.
1:33I mean, I haven't experienced, the only thing that I've like kind of experienced as an adult been, you know, that like
1:3913, 14, 15 type timeframe where they were like fun and decent.
1:43And, but they just kept hitting these buzz saws in the wild card round, you know, the, the, the playing game every year.
1:49I know. I remember like one of the, like I would, I was really getting into baseball when I was a kid,
1:55those Pirates Braves or that Pirates Braves series when they had the bonds and Bonilla and Vince like and, and, and wasn't
2:01it the bonds throw to the plate? Yes. Um, uh, Sid Breen, I feel like was the guy that scored Francisco Cabrera was the guy that hit it.
2:08And I, and I was dude, I am, and like, I've changed a little bit on this, but I was a massive Barry bonds fan, like growing up.
2:16Yeah. Um, like, like I, from his pie and then he went to San Francisco.
2:20I have an uncle who lives in San Francisco, right outside San Francisco.
2:23So, um, like even when he was a giant, I was still following him.
2:27I, I still have like hundreds of Barry bonds cards.
2:30I was, I was absolutely loving bonds and the pirates too.
2:33And I, I think that there's something like there, there, there's like this, and I know you're not in Pittsburgh anymore, but
2:39I think there's this like kinship that Pittsburgh and like green Bay, like Northeast Wisconsin.
2:43Yeah. I think that there's a, there's a lot of salt of the earth type people there.
2:47And I feel like we're very, very similar Packers fans.
2:50Steelers fans are very, very similar. Yeah. A hundred percent.
2:53I mean, that's why, like, I look at Milwaukee and other, you know, quote unquote division rivals and such, but I'm like, yeah, that would be sweet.
3:00Like if they were, if they were able to, I mean, like if you, if you grew up in a smaller market
3:06area and you know, mid, uh, Midwest city, whatever the case may be, you're, you're not rooting for the Dodgers.
3:12Well, we'll say that, right? Like you're, you're just not, it's, it's, it's similar to like how I think a lot of
3:17people view, like the bills in football where you're just like, yeah, I think Buffalo fans deserve this at some point, you
3:23know, like at some point, let's hope that they get that W because you know, they've been through what they've been there.
3:29Or you could say the same thing about, I know that you probably don't want to say, don't want to hear this, but like Minnesota, right?
3:36The folks in Minnesota, like they're good people. They should probably not, not have to live through what they've lived through as, as sports fans.
3:43I think that it just goes back to the mentality of the underdog, right?
3:47Like we, we, America, it's funny because America loves winners until what's the line from dark night until they live long enough to see themselves become the villain.
3:55Dodgers are a villain. Yankees have become a villain.
3:57You know, you think about homes became a villain, right?
4:00Like homes who came, that's a perfect example. Yeah.
4:02And, and America loves the underdog. Now here's the thing.
4:05I know that if the brewers somehow find a way to get to the world series and win it this year, that's where America's empathy ends.
4:12Like then, then they're done with the brewers. Then they're, then they're onto the rays or the guardians or what have you.
4:18Cause, cause all they, they already want it, you know?
4:20So we're good now. Milwaukee got their reward, which I'm fine with.
4:24Like I, you root for who you root for.
4:26I don't really root against it. I know I probably should root against like the Vikings and the bears and so on and so forth.
4:33I don't, I don't harbor ill will to those things.
4:36Maybe that doesn't, I'm just not a true fan then.
4:38I don't know. You're just, you're just mature. That's all.
4:41That's all. I think that's what it is. That's what, and I'll tell you this JJ.
4:45And I promise you we're, we're going to get to this in a second.
4:49Like what we're going to talk about. I had a local, um, and you know what?
4:53I'm going to save this. I'm going to say this cause it's going to, it's going to help answer one of the questions.
5:00So I'll, I'll save it for now and we'll get back to it in a second.
5:04Okay. Well, let's, let's talk about you. First off beard looks great.
5:07Thank you. Per you. How long, how long has that been going?
5:11August of 22 was the last time I had a clean shaven face.
5:14August of 22. I literally, I have no perspective of how long something like that would take.
5:19You know what I mean? Like, cause I'm just trimming my, you know, I do like beard trimmer stuff, whatever.
5:24And like, that's just, you know, I don't, I don't think about how long all that would go for it.
5:29Was there a reason that you, that you went in that direction?
5:33Pretty. So like this, this will help answer the question, but I have two full-time jobs and, and kind of a quasi part-time job.
5:39So time is at a premium for me. And I think back in August, like there was right when the cusp of
5:45like draft season was hitting FFPC and, and we had the draft-a-thon coming up and then obviously our Vegas events.
5:51And then I was doing a lot of shows and doing a lot of stuff.
5:55And it just got to be one of those things where I just neglected to shave.
5:59Like I, I, I just for a week or two, and then I'm like, you know what, I'm going to grow it out, see what it's like.
6:06And then it got to be the point. And, and this is maybe like a, a mental illness or something I have.
6:12I shouldn't use that term, but some sort of mental, whatever, where now I just want to see how long I can get it.
6:19Right. And, and, and so I know that once I shaved my beard off, it will never be, I will never grow
6:25it to this length ever again for the rest of my life.
6:28I just, it won't happen again. So now at this point, I want to see how long I can get it.
6:34There's been talk about like, when I do shave it off, are we going to do it on a show?
6:39And why are we going to like have some sort of like charity, like hook that up and, and, and we'll probably do something like that.
6:46I'd like to say that 2027, the beard is gone, but I've said that the last three years and it hasn't come off yet.
6:53So who knows? Does it, does it get obnoxious?
6:55See, like my, when mine gets like a little bit, just like even just a little bit, I'm like, this is getting like itchy and annoying.
7:02And you know, I don't get, I don't get itchiness anymore.
7:05And, and living in Northeast Wisconsin, I mean, we have 11 month winters up here.
7:09So I, my, my face always stays nice and warm.
7:12I will say like, if I don't, and I do trim my mustache, if that starts growing over my lip, then I
7:18get kind of annoyed, but that's about it. I don't really, I'm pretty laissez faire when it comes to the rest of it.
7:24Okay. All right. Well, let's talk football. Let's talk football.
7:27Yes. Okay. First off, introduce yourself to the perspectives family here, listening your, your background.
7:31You've been around for a minute. You know, you and I have done shows together at times periodically, like through the year.
7:37I mean, it's been a really long time at this point, but how did you get going and what are you doing now in the space?
7:44So originally FFPC co-founder Dave Gerzak, I worked for him.
7:46I still work for him for, for another gig, for an e-commerce website that, that he owns.
7:51And I started that in 2002. Now in 2008, and this is a little bit of background on the high stakes fantasy
7:57football industry in 2008, the dominant force out there was, and it had been for, for the better part of a decade was the world championship fantasy football.
8:04There were whispers and rumors and beliefs among certain players that, you know, maybe this did not have the longevity that, that
8:10maybe this was not, that contest was not in the greatest of spaces.
8:14So three guys, Dave, Alex Kaganowski is the other FFPC co-founder.
8:17And then another silent partner who is, who since, because of his job in the financial industry, he could not really be a part of the FFPC.
8:24So he, so it was those two guys and they started the FFPC in 2008.
8:28Now they would, we'd have a live event out in Las Vegas and it varied, like sometimes that Rio, sometimes that Caesars,
8:34right now we're at Planet Hollywood, but they would have these live events out there where people are drafting teams.
8:40Now, the way we do it and the way we've done it the last 10 years is as people are drafting players
8:46and we're putting the stickers up on the board, we have a, we have an app where we're entering in the picks.
8:52Well, back in 2008, we didn't have that. So when the drafts would get done around, you know, eight o'clock, nine o'clock
8:57Pacific time, Dave would email me and say, Hey, put yourself on the clock.
9:01This is for the other gig I was working for.
9:04I need you to enter in all these rosters.
9:06And he and I had been playing fantasy football for like 10 years together.
9:10So he knew, you know, whatever. So then I did that and then I, it became a yearly thing.
9:15And then sort of like my duties expanded. And, uh, and then when I graduated, I graduated college late, I graduated in 2011.
9:22And then in 2012, I was looking for a gig.
9:24So I was a double major. I was journalism and then radio, TV, film, and I was looking for a gig in local television or local radio.
9:32And I kept working that other gig with Dave and while I was looking for a job and he said, Hey, why don't you just start a podcast?
9:39And I said, well, yeah, I hadn't really considered that, but sure.
9:42So we started an FFPC podcast titled the high stakes fantasy football hour.
9:46It aired at night. It still airs at nine o'clock or 10 o'clock Friday nights.
9:50And it was sort of like, there was another, um, longstanding high stakes fantasy football podcast that went out right before it.
9:56So it was kind of like a block, like you got two hours of, you get your dose of high stakes fantasy football.
10:02So, so I, yeah, I said, let's do that.
10:05And, and, um, and then, you know, that expanded into now I'm doing four shows for FFPC as of January 1st of
10:11this year, I became full time there. I just, they started, you know, just giving me more and more responsibilities and stuff.
10:16And, and so now I'm in a technically an employee of it.
10:20And, you know, Brian Drake from, um, uh, fantasy points said something when he was watching one of my shows, he was
10:26in the chat and he said, wow, Eric Balkman is, he's gotta be one of the most underrated fantasy analysts out there.
10:32And I, and I, well, I appreciate that. I really resent it because I am just sort of like a bystander and
10:38all this soaking up as much information as I can.
10:40And I feel like that's what I've been doing with FFPC, uh, over the course of the last, you know, nearly 20
10:46years now is talking to high stakes players, talking to other people in the industry and just trying to become a better fantasy football player.
10:53And JJ, isn't that what we're all just trying to do is win more games, win more leagues.
10:58I think that's what the whole idea is. A hundred percent, man.
11:01I mean, that, that's, that's a big reason why I wanted to start perspectives when I did, you know, a few years
11:07ago is that I, I wanted to have a show that was not just me spewing information to an audience and it
11:13was me having these conversations, learning more, you know, perspectives coming from the idea of getting other people's perspectives.
11:18Uh, and it's been great from that, that standpoint, you know, like I, it's, it's a really important thing to, to have these conversations, to talk to people.
11:26I mean, you've, you've now talked to every high stakes person out there, right?
11:30I mean, I would, I would say this, it is far from it.
11:33Like there are so many, like originally, and I'll just tell you this, just a bit of background on, on the original
11:39podcast that I started, the high stakes fantasy football hour.
11:42The original idea was to get people excited to come out and draft not only with the FFPC, but draft live with us in Las Vegas.
11:49Right. And then that quickly evolved within like a year.
11:51And, and I'm talking to all these guys that are, and, and women too, that are putting up serious cash, um, uh,
11:57of their own money to try to win, you know, six and seven figure grand prize.
12:02And like, nobody ever hears about them. And this was like, kind of pre Twitter a little bit, like obviously before Twitter
12:08exploded, like none of these people have an avenue and, and they had, they have, they have such great fantasy minds.
12:13And so I think that's what, what all the shows sort of evolved into is like people that didn't have an avenue,
12:19um, to, to, to really help other people be better fantasy players.
12:23I think that's what the high stakes fantasy football hours become is, is people you would never hear of, or they get lost in the sauce.
12:30You'd know, you know, cause the louder voices drown them out or whatever.
12:33Um, I just feel like that's like a nice little corner, forget the high stakes industry, just the nice little corner of
12:39the fantasy football industry that you get perspectives from all these different people from all these different walks of life.
12:44And it's made me a better player to, um, getting out of my own echo chamber.
12:49I don't know if you dealt with this JJ, when you were coming up, but getting out of my own echo chamber was hard.
12:55It was really, really difficult for me to, to embrace other philosophies and other strategies and other player evaluations.
13:00And I think once I was really accepting of that, I definitely became a better player for sure.
13:05Yeah. I mean, a lot of people listening to this probably have no idea that like, I don't know, 10 years ago,
13:11I'd say it was at its peak when there were like literal wars, uh, you know, through, through words on the internet
13:17between folks who were, you know, more high stakes players versus analysts that out there that maybe weren't playing in some of these leagues.
13:24I think what's been really cool since that point in time, when, when it probably peaked, I don't know, I'd say like
13:3010 years ago or so where it was like the fantasy industry was kind of on the, on the come up and
13:36there were like more and more analysts that were doing it for money and for their job.
13:40And then obviously you have these players who are putting a lot of money on the line and trying to be profitable
13:46and lucrative from, from just playing the game when those clashes were happening.
13:50Um, which I think there was like, if, if I were to like diagnose that, I think there was like envy on
13:56both sides, you know, it was like a, it was like the, you know, the high stakes players were like, wait, why are you getting an audience?
14:03And then the, the, the people with an audience were like, oh, I can play better than you can.
14:08You know what I mean? So it was like, it was just sort of this, like a lot of people just not
14:14having any self awareness and understandably so, cause you're trying to protect what you do, right?
14:18You're trying to protect the thing that you feel very passionate about.
14:22But what's been really cool. I think is that like, I've got to know a lot of people who now play, I
14:28mean, whether through you and some of the shows we've done or like just in general, you know, cause like, you know,
14:33I, I've then been introduced to some people through that audience or, you know, whatever the case may be.
14:39I think it's been cool to see how there's been like a merging of, of these worlds in a little bit.
14:44Like you, you see like really, really good high stakes players that are giving advice now, right.
14:49That are, that are working for some websites and stuff.
14:52Right. Or you see people who like, I think best ball has helped too, where you have these platforms that you're able
14:58to at least show that you're putting money on the line, that you're doing this.
15:02And then I think there's a little bit more respect then from, from either side, et cetera, et cetera.
15:07Like, I think the more that you get introduced to, okay, like I'm an analyst.
15:11Yeah. I play more money than most people in fantasy football.
15:14Don't get me wrong, but you know, I'm not doing the, the, the 50, 60, 70, $80,000 type stuff that, you know, some other people are doing.
15:21And so, but, but like, I think that, that when you put yourself in those shoes of the other person, you know,
15:27you're able to then, you know, have a little bit more, uh, you know, humility of what, with what you're doing, but
15:33then also respect for, for what, what they're doing as well.
15:36And, and I think that's what we've seen over the years.
15:39I, I, and it's so difficult to do that.
15:41I mean, we are just as humans, just normally we are so committed to our own self-interest in everything.
15:46Like, it's just, it's not being selfish. It's just how like, right.
15:50We kind of are right. Right. Um, one of the things that I'm always most proud of, um, and I remember the
15:56war, like there was a lot of jealousy, like, as you said, on both sides, um, one of the things that I'm
16:02always proud of when I, when, when we have a guy, like, I think there's three guys and I'm probably forgetting some
16:08other people, but I think about when we had Monty fan on, um, um, high stakes fantasy football, or like 10 plus
16:14years ago, now this dude's working for Roto-Viz, right?
16:16We had Dwayne McFarlane on, who's absolutely crushing it at fantasy life.
16:19And his first ever podcast appearance was, was on our show season one or season two.
16:24Yeah, absolutely. That's great. And, and, uh, and then we have, um, a B bag, but toba who granted like probably didn't need us.
16:30Like he came on our show and then he won back to back mid stakes titles, which was just insane.
16:35He didn't need us for that. But again, like his first media before he started his own podcast was, was on our show.
16:42So, and, and I think about, and then you flip it over to the, to the reverse side.
16:47I remember in Peter Overzet and Pat Corrine, um, were drafting at the FFPC live events for the first time.
16:52Right. And, uh, and even they, I, you could tell they were a little intimidated, not, not, not afraid, but maybe a
16:58little intimidated of like, I remember one of the things that they said what in one of the shows that they were
17:04doing out there, they were talking about their portfolio and they're playing in one FFPC main event league at the time.
17:10They're like, this is the portfolio, you know, the better part of $2,000 buy it.
17:14And now you look at those guys and they're, they're doing, you know, dozens of main events every year and all these other things.
17:20So the, the, the, I think social media and the ability for anybody to have a microphone and a camera has been both a blessing and a curse.
17:28It's definitely helped those two sides get together. Obviously with the pros versus Joe's thing that we have with FFPC every year,
17:34that's always a big hit too, um, where, where, you know, the Joe's have an opportunity to prove that they know more
17:40than the pros and the pros on the flip side can, can, can absolutely be vindicated by, by winning their leagues or winning the whole thing, you know?
17:47I think that carries a lot of respect with analysts too, or with, uh, with regular players as well.
17:52When pros are battling these high rolling Joe's and they're still getting it done.
17:56I think there's something there. I'll tell, I'll say this to, to kind of wrap this up is that like, like when
18:02I hear, you know, just by talking to folks that are sort of in that, in more your arena and such, when
18:08I hear that some high stakes players are like listening to my podcast or something like that, there is no greater feeling
18:14for me than I would love to be the show that, and someone like that's listening to, or, or, you know, a
18:20show that analysts are listening to because they care about that.
18:23Like that is, there's no better, like, I mean, there's no better feeling and there's no better honor than that as, as
18:29an analyst doing this kind of stuff. So like, yeah, as the years have gone on, I just think it's cool that,
18:35you know, the two worlds have merged more and more.
18:37But like I said, you've been talking to these people for, for years now.
18:41I say these people, uh, like, like they're, you know, like, like cavemen that, that no one knows who they are and
18:47cave women and cave women and cave women. Yes.
18:50Yes. Of course. Um, what do you think though?
18:52Like with the, with these high stakes players, what do you think is one thing that separates them as fantasy managers, as
18:58players compared to the average fantasy manager? So there is a certain sect of like, okay.
19:02When you think about high stakes fantasy football players, there's a lot of people that believe that these are just people with
19:08way too much money, uh, and, and just, just want the action.
19:12And you know what? That's probably the case with, with a certain section of it.
19:16That's probably the case of a certain section of everything, right?
19:19There's, there's just, there's, there's, there's a certain amount of people that have, they don't know what to do with all this money.
19:25And, and, you know, this is an outlet for them.
19:27I do think that the majority of, of the people who play in our FFPC main event, which again is like a $2,000 buy-in.
19:34I think the majority of them, that it's still a really significant amount of money.
19:38And, and when you are investing that of your own money, where if you don't win, you're out that cash, you, you
19:44see a real dedication to being up on waivers, making sure that you're getting the most recent possible information before you hit
19:50your lineups, looking weeks ahead on the schedule to make sure that you're getting your roster in a position to not only
19:56win this week, but when next week and the week down the road.
19:59So I, I think that the casual player and like, I don't know if you've experienced this, JJ, but like, there's been
20:05plenty of times, you know, like I play in probably like 40 or 50 leagues, right?
20:10There's times where I don't want to submit waivers and I don't want to, I don't want to do any of this.
20:16And I just want to check out and watch a movie or watch a television show.
20:20I think there's a lot of these high stakes players that that's not how it operates.
20:24Like it is football is life for them. Fantasy football is life for them.
20:28And I think the, the, the dedication, the time commitment, the attention to detail, I think that's what separates, you know, the,
20:34the, you know, the, if high stakes players make up 1% of fantasy football players, that's what separates them from the other 99.
20:40Uh, the people who will casually play, the people will get into it, um, you know, and really, really prep for their draft.
20:46And then they start off one in three. And instead of like hunkering down and trying to dig themselves out, they just
20:52kind of like they're waiting for, for, for, you know, fantasy basketball or, or playoff, you know, fantasy football stuff.
20:58So I think just, it's just, I think there is a, there is a work ethic that, that comes with a lot
21:04of these, not everybody, uh, but with a lot of these high stakes players.
21:08And I think that's what sort of separates them from, from everybody else.
21:11That's a really good point, uh, that I didn't even really consider as much.
21:15I think that what you brought up about the thinking ahead stuff, you know, like there are many, many leagues where, uh, on FFPC in particular, right.
21:22Where I'm looking at waivers each week and I'm trying to do that as best as I can.
21:27And then I see a move happen and I'm like, wait.
21:30And then I look and I'm like, oh, they're, they're literally like two weeks ahead right now that they're like, they're picking
21:36up this defense for this particular, you know, like they're thinking through that roster.
21:40And like you said, it's really difficult to do that when you do have a lot of teams, because you're, you have
21:46to think deeply about each one of those teams as you're managing them.
21:49But I have noticed that, um, especially on, on FFPC where it's going to be, you know, you will find some, some
21:55tough competition, but you're going to also, you're going to feel better about those wins when you get them.
22:00And you're going to be able to really see how you stack up against, you know, the top players.
22:05Like there's a lot of content creators that are out there that are bragging about the leagues that they're winning and et cetera, et cetera.
22:12And I, I do think that, you know, if you're in that position where you keep winning in and you're doing really
22:18well in your home leagues and stuff like that, I think it's a good idea to try out a platform like FFPC for that reason.
22:25And I'll, and I'll say this too, like Alex Kaganowski, our co-founder, he always says too, and I think this is totally
22:31appropriate and accurate that the step from your home league, your office league, what have you, wherever your buddies league to playing
22:37in the FFPC, it's not really that big of a leap.
22:40I mean, it is, it is, it is a pretty small step and we've had people plenty of times that come in and crush it right away.
22:47Now there's, I think definitely the majority of people will come in in their first year in the FFPC.
22:52And I've had so many people come on the show.
22:55Yeah. I got my rear end kick that first year.
22:58I didn't know what was going on, but then the year two.
23:01It seems like you're, you're kind of used to it.
23:04There's no intimidation. You've done it before. And, and we, and I've seen those players go on to win four or five,
23:10six, seven figure grand prizes, you know? So it, it, it can happen.
23:13I mean, I think it's like, what's the, what's the phrase?
23:16Once you're thinking about being retired, you're already retired.
23:19I think once you're thinking about playing an FFPC, you should just play because I think you'll be pleased at what happens.
23:24Yeah. A hundred percent. Another question I have for you is that, do you think, cause you know, I feel like you're
23:30in this unique position because you're talking to players just as frequently as like, you know, other analysts and such.
23:36Like, it's not just the people who are putting together video content and podcasts and stuff like that.
23:41Like you, you're digging into and having conversations with people who are just playing and that they're very passionate about this and
23:47they can share their thoughts, et cetera, et cetera.
23:49And so I think that that's a really unique angle to pick your brain from.
23:53And so do you think after having conversations with these folks, like there's so much information out there right now?
23:59Like I say this in like my draft guide every year.
24:02Like I, you know, I still, my home league, my main home league that's been around since the early two thousands, you
24:07know, 2001 or 2002, my dad's in it. My dad's in his late seventies.
24:11You know, he's, he doesn't follow football nearly as closely as like I do.
24:15Right. But he can Google things. He, you know, he can, he can, he can talk to AI and ask, you know,
24:21who the, the, the best sleepers are this year.
24:23And then I can come together and give him some list that he can go to the auction draft and try to, you know, draft those players.
24:31Do you think that the edge for, you know, that, that these best players you've talked to that they've had in the
24:37past has been shrinking because of the readily available information that's out there.
24:40A hundred and 50,000%. The, the, the edge, the edge still exists, but it is much more difficult to find.
24:46You know, you think about, you talked about your league that you've been playing in with your buddy since the early two thousands.
24:52Think about what it was like getting information back then for submitting lineups or submitting waivers or whatever compared to now where
24:58you just go on your phone, you type in a player's name onto your X app and boom, you have the latest information like that.
25:05You know? So I, I think it's, it's made finding information completely easier.
25:08I think it's been a godsend and people who are trying to get out information to a mass amount of people fast.
25:14It's, it's been easier to do it. You know, via X and social media and podcasts and, and everything like that.
25:20Um, I still think there's an edge. I, I think that, that some of our best players, I don't know how they do it.
25:26Uh, but, um, as far as like the, the, the, the players that they draft, um, each and every year that, that,
25:32that they, they always seem to find that mid round guy that, and some of that's volume drafting too.
25:37I mean, obviously if you draft in a bunch of leagues, you're going to hit on some sleepers here and there.
25:43So I still think an edge exists. Um, but man, you really got to scratch and claw for it because everybody else is perfect.
25:49Perfect example is this. So I, I can't play an FFPC because I'm an employee.
25:54However, I can play in the Kentucky fantasy football state championship KFFSC, which my Friday night co-host Farrell Elliott, who hosts the
25:59pros versus Joe's with me, he runs that. So I have a bunch of leagues there.
26:04I remember back in the day when I go to this live event in Louisville and like, you'd have these people come
26:10out of the woodwork on Sunday and with, with, you know, with apologies to anybody who has a magazine, there's a lot
26:16of good magazines out there, but they roll up with magazines and they're, and they're drafting from that.
26:21And they're picking guys that tore their ACLs, you know, picking guys that, that, you know, just wait, you know, eight rounds too early.
26:27And it was a feast. Like you would just, you would feast on these.
26:31It was always Sunday, like Friday and Saturday was pretty sharp, but Sunday you could always feast on these other, you know,
26:37newbie drafters that are just coming in. That's not the case anymore.
26:40And it hasn't been the case for like 10 years.
26:43Like everybody who is playing in high stakes fantasy football, I think everybody who's playing in, even in casual leagues, it is
26:49so easy to find information that you really, if you want an edge, if you want an information edge, good luck.
26:54I mean, it exists out there. I haven't found it.
26:57Like I know it's out there because I know people are exploiting it, but it is so difficult to find nowadays.
27:03But the other 99% of the information, 95% of the information, it's so easy to find right now.
27:08And it's really leveled the playing field quite a bit.
27:10So I talked to fabs about this last week.
27:13I think it's, it's, it's very much related to, to this where there was something that was posed.
27:18I think crack rock might've been the one that, that posted on Twitter.
27:21Another, another former guest of the high stakes fantasy footballer.
27:24And that guy's a riot. That guy, that guy.
27:26So, so JJ, you ever, have you ever heard the term crank and purple?
27:30I don't think so. Okay. Crank and purple is something.
27:33So, so the FFPC draft boards are all color coded where, you know, running backs.
27:37Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So crack rock was the guy who, I believe it was crack rock coined the phrase crank and
27:43purple when he would, he would draft a bunch of tight ends early.
27:46Right. Crank and purple used to mean three tight ends to start off the draft because the tight ends are all purple.
27:52Now I found out from Darren Armani from fantasy mojo three tight ends to start off your FFPC draft is known as the purple Sasquatch.
27:59So there's all these different terms out there right now, but crack rock coin crank and purple.
28:04That's very funny. And that was a trending hashtag for a while because they had any, that's hilarious.
28:08But yeah, so like, like, I think he was the one who originally posted on Twitter, but it was something along the
28:14lines of, I at least saw him in like in a thread about it.
28:18Right. But it was something along the lines of if you didn't pay attention to anything in the pre in like August
28:24that was, that was news item related. Right. Like, I guess I should say like news items, like injuries and stuff would
28:30be one thing, but I mean more of like hype train type stuff.
28:34Right. Would you be better off not listening to that than listening to that?
28:37And the more that I've thought about it, the more I do think at this point, probably if you're doing the research,
28:43probably if you're ignoring that stuff, it's, it's likely, you know, a better idea to, to not be consuming a whole bunch
28:49of, you know, beat writer reports and stuff like that.
28:52I think if you've been doing this for a long time, you kind of know which beat reporters kind of know what
28:58they're doing and which ones are a little bit just like throwing stuff at a wall.
29:02But like, I think that part of like what, and it's really hard to do this because again, going back to we're
29:08human and you know, we're going to have biases and it's just hard to, for, for a lot of people to think
29:14this way, this is where I think, um, you know, some players, whether they're analysts or not, whether in best ball, whether
29:20in, you know, these high stakes leagues on FFPC, they're very good at tuning out what these hype trains end up being
29:26for the most part, especially when there's not as much substance to it.
29:30Cause there's a lot of times where I don't want to say I fall victim to the hype train, but even when
29:36I do some research, I'm still like, like, like, like if I go in with a preconceived notion that a player is
29:42really, really good or, or like is, is, is, is being hyped right as being really good.
29:46And then I find data that maybe suggests that this player's a little bit overrated.
29:50It's very hard and I try my best, but I'm just trying to be, you know, honest here.
29:55It's very hard to then say, I'm going to go against 99% of people right now and say that this data point
30:01or these, you know, all of this data suggested this player isn't nearly as good as what is being hyped out there.
30:07I'll bring it down a little bit, but it's, it's not, you know, every year I look back, I'm like, why did I do that?
30:14You know what I mean? And so I think for me, what I'm getting at here is, is that like, I have
30:20started to lean into the idea of essentially just doing the opposite of what the market sentiment is saying.
30:25And I did that actually with like Malik neighbors, for instance, when Jackson Dart went down, right, where I had to take
30:31where, and then I, again, like after that first week where, where Jamis and Malik had a horrible game, you know, against
30:37Tennessee, I think it was in the rain. You know, I brought that back a little bit and I wish I never
30:43did because then obviously the last two weeks have gone the way that they've done.
30:47But regardless, it's like, it's very easy to log onto Twitter and just see everyone saying Malik neighbors is dust, you know?
30:53And if you just keep reading that you're just reinforced by this idea that, oh, I must be the problem in that
30:59I'm seeing it this way, but it's actually this other way because so many other people are seeing it that way.
31:04So I guess what I'm saying is like, do you think there's validity to the idea of just saying like, what if
31:10the edge that we can have is actually just going against market sentiment and not leaning into this information?
31:15There is, there is, this could be like a three hour show.
31:19Just like you in the future, JJ, to plan this for something in the off season, right?
31:23In drafting season and, and just, and just delve into this and it's that it's, it there's so much to unpack.
31:29I think that, so is to answer the question blanket.
31:32Yes or no. Is there validity to it? Obviously?
31:34Yes. Yeah. There is definitely validity to it. Is it something I would want to subscribe to completely?
31:39Absolutely not. Right. Um, I think that, you know, you think over the years, um, you know, think about let throw injuries out, right.
31:45Like you said, let's talk about hype trains. You know, um, there, there is an Arian Foster hype train that if you
31:51would have ignored that, um, you probably cost you leagues when you could have gotten that dude in like the sixth or seventh round.
31:58And he went on to be fantasy running back one that year.
32:01You hurt yourself if you ignored that. Um, more recently, who can Nakuha, I think is a perfect example.
32:06Great one. His rookie year where, where, you know, there is a, there is definitely, um, uh, a section of people that,
32:12that the truthers that were saying like, look, I'm telling you right now, this guy's going to crush it.
32:17And most people ignored that. And then what happened?
32:20He crushed it and he was awesome. James Robinson is another example.
32:23The free agent, uh, running back from Jacksonville. I think if you look back, um, you know, when people talk about what does preseason matter?
32:30Remember Victor Cruz that one year where he was just crushing it in preseason.
32:34And so many people are like, I'm not buying into that hype train.
32:37Like it's, it's, it's obviously going to end when it's regular season starts.
32:41And you know what? It took a knee injury to really end it.
32:44And that was years later for Victor Cruz. So you do end up, if you blanket cut all that out, then yes,
32:50you will end up missing out on stuff. Now flip side of that.
32:54I think it's important. NFL teams are not under any obligation to put out certain information.
32:58Most injury information in the off season. And when do we crave football?
33:01Well, the most JJ it's in the off season.
33:04It's when we can't watch it. It's it's like we can't get it.
33:07And as a result, I think it's just natural for us to overrate every single thing we see in the news.
33:13Some, some stuff that wouldn't even qualify as news in October or November, but we're spending an hour talking about it on a show.
33:20Um, just that topic in, in June or, or whatever.
33:22So I think that goes into it as well.
33:25It's, it's a fine line. I mean, you, you, you kind of, you, you cannot totally ignore it.
33:30You, you cannot totally embrace it. You, you have to, you have to kind of, and it just comes with experience, right?
33:36Yeah. Right. I mean, you, I'm sure you will over the years have learned, like you can sniff out when, when something is got, you know what?
33:43This isn't real. This is to a degree. Yeah.
33:45Yes. To a degree. And you're never going to be a hundred percent.
33:49Right. Like, like, you know, that that's just the way it is.
33:52But I think with experience and especially dealing with coaches and beat writers, just more reps, I think gives us, it just makes us better fantasy players.
33:59And there's no replication for that. You can't just all of a sudden advance.
34:03It just, it comes with time. And, and I think over time, our educated guesses become more educated, but they're still just that they're still just guesses.
34:10And, and so to, to buy into the hype train in, in preseason is sometimes good.
34:15Sometimes it can, it can be very bad as well.
34:17I think there's a lot of confirmation bias as you're noting that goes on with this, right?
34:22Like if you, I also think like there's, I try to obviously marry my analysis with what the hype trains are, you
34:28know, like for instance, like I, you know, I could sit here and talk about Parker Washington because I liked Parker Washington this year.
34:34And then obviously he's doing what he's doing and there was a hype train with him, but I want to go in
34:40the opposite direction and say like, we don't, I mean, I guess we don't know what the results going to be, but I liked Luther burden this year.
34:48Right. So I go into the season, he's getting some hype.
34:51I still think that people are kind of overstating what the true hype was for burden because it's not like he got
34:57into like mid round three or anything like that.
34:59And most drafts, you know, you're still like a, you know, four or five turn for a lot of drafts and stuff like that.
35:06But regardless of all of that, right, regardless of those semantics, like the Luther burden stuff that the stuff that drives me
35:12nuts more is that some people are buying into the hype train simply because of previous season yards per out run or,
35:18you know, the, the fit with Ben Johnson only.
35:20Right. But I'm like, I'm sitting here and I'm like, no, I actually like loved this dude as a prospect.
35:26Right. Like I thought that there was so much juice to his game coming out of school.
35:30And then everything since then has only confirmed that for me.
35:33And when I go down through my, like from a process standpoint and things just keep getting confirmed and yes, it's not been three years yet.
35:40It's only been a year and change for, for burden in the NFL.
35:44That's when I'm like, yeah, I'll lean into this a little bit.
35:47Of course I understand that it could go South.
35:49You know, this is why he's a fourth rounder or fifth rounder in some leagues.
35:53Like that's fine. But you know, you're weighing that cost benefit.
35:56Another really good example of this is like Jaden blue last year.
36:00Right. I liked Jaden blue as a prospect, but a lot of people were liking him and he got the hype train
36:06going because he was fast and he was playing for the Cowboys and there was an opening in that backfield.
36:11Right. My, I think my job and duty as an analyst is to kind of dissect those situations and explain why I
36:17would be in or out on a certain player, you know, like that is getting hyped or who's not, whatever the case may be.
36:24Like, and, and I think that the, one of the problems is, is that when we then finish a season and we
36:29look back on that season and we say, Oh, you fell victim or I JJ fell victim to some hype train.
36:35It's very important to go and look at like, what was your process when doing that?
36:39And was there a backbone to what you were doing when you decided to make that choice?
36:44You know what I mean? And, and, and like, like even Jalen Waddle this year, who's going to play tonight, you know, we're recording this before the Thursday.
36:52So this is not a take on what's going to happen tonight.
36:55Obviously he's been a bus thus far, but I think there's enough data and evidence and stuff to like, I'm not really
37:01that mad about the process of being like into Jalen Waddle this year, you know?
37:05And like, I don't want a result. Like I did not expect the Broncos to be a bottom five offense.
37:10You know, like I, I didn't expect them to be this bad offensively.
37:14That was the problem. You know, I don't know if it was a Waddle problem per se.
37:18And so there's that kind of stuff where there's so much nuance when we go back and we look at what, who
37:24was hyped, what was hyped, why they were hyped and all that kind of stuff.
37:28I think it's important to just make sure that like what you're doing is logical and reasonable when you make that choice.
37:34And then you can't be that mad if you missed out on that, you know, whether good or bad, if that choice was logical when you made it.
37:42I think the other thing to keep in mind, and these are all great points too.
37:46I think the other thing to keep in mind, if you want to keep it simple, because obviously a person like you
37:52who does this for a living, that, that spends so much of his life with your, with your prospect model, with all
37:58your models, really with everything that you and Brandon and David, everybody at late round is doing.
38:03You have the luxury, not that it's a luxury.
38:05It can be a burden at some point, but you have a luxury of, of sitting down and really taking the time
38:11to crunch all this stuff down and trusting your process and then testing that process and then enhancing and improving that process.
38:17There are so many casual players out there, myself included, that, that don't have the time to do that.
38:22And I think one of the things when we see these, these, these hype trains build in, in the, in the preseason
38:28and in drafting season is just ask yourself one question.
38:31And, and, and it's, it's not a, it's not a perfect substitute, but it is a significant substitute for everything that you're doing.
38:37Just ask yourself, well, what happened? You know, what happened to create this, this hype that did something happen is, was this,
38:43was this created by a bunch of people talking about this guy on X and, or, or was there something definitive that
38:49just happened in training camp preseason, a situation or whatever?
38:52Like, and, and oftentimes if you, if you answer the question, we're like, well, I'm not sure what happened all of a sudden.
38:58Then I think that's kind of a hype train that, that you can ignore.
39:02Once you have your process of, of whatever it is, you know, everybody's got their own thing, high stakes players, content creators, everybody's got their own thing.
39:09But once you have that, I think as long as you're constantly working to improve it, then, you know, if, if you're
39:15wrong on something, you're wrong on something. One of the, and I meant to bring this up, this is a good time to bring this up.
39:22One of the things that I think you do so well, and Ben Gretsch is another person that, that really embodies this.
39:28And there's others out there too, but you two are the first people I think of about this.
39:33I think of like, sort of like the new modern fantasy analyst that is just like, you know, going for clicks and
39:39quick quips on, on X or whatever, like X is, you know, this guy's the next amount around St.
39:44Brown with not a whole lot of process behind that, you know?
39:47And even if there was, that's an awfully specific thing to say what you, what you and Gretsch do.
39:52And all the time to the point where, where like, I, it's, it blows me away that people aren't bludgeoned over the
39:58head with this is you're always talking about range of outcomes.
40:01You guys are always like, yes, I like this guy.
40:04Could he fall flat on his face? Absolutely. Could he be an MVP?
40:07Absolutely. So you're talking about range of income of outcomes when it comes to be this stuff.
40:12And I just think that the, the more that with apologies to anybody who's watching this, who speaks in absolutes in regards
40:18to fantasy or betting or whatever it is, I tend to kind of ignore that kind of stuff because it just doesn't
40:24give me a whole lot of faith in your process.
40:27Number one. And then number two, what happens when you're wrong?
40:30You know, like you're, you were so sure of this and then you were wrong about that.
40:34Where do you go from there? So I think you do an excellent job of that.
40:39And it's a good reminder for anybody who is, is watching you and, and, and you and Ben and whoever it's, it's
40:45a good reminder to, to know that even if you are a great fantasy player, you're probably still getting it wrong at least 35%, 40% of the time.
40:52And there's no shame in that. All right. I want to ask you about free agent budgets.
40:57This is something that I honestly, you know, I have a process for like everything and I have a, like a, I
41:03have like a, like a subconscious process with fab, right?
41:05Like where I kind of know what direction I want to go in and what, and it's more of an experience thing for me.
41:12Right. Where it's just like, I've just been playing this for so long and I've been doing, uh, you know, going into waivers for so long.
41:19I generally know, you know, what to usually expect from certain players, whatever.
41:22But how do you like, what is your process when you're deciding if you're going to like spend 70% of your fab for a player?
41:29Okay. So just, just real quick, real, real quick story.
41:32Um, the KFFSC holds a Superbowl, um, Sunday drafting weekend.
41:35Where I draft like 10 teams, not best ball, but like, like we're managed leagues out there.
41:39And, and as a result, we don't always draft the best players like this year, for example, when, when the first fab
41:45room came in, um, uh, September, nobody drafted Dejon Stribbley back in February.
41:49Nobody drafted, um, Marshawn Lloyd, Jacoby lane, Jacoby lane, I guess was about half and half, but I ended up blowing.
41:54I didn't think I'd win all these players in, in the majority of those leagues.
41:58And I did. And so I had very little fab left in those leagues, which has been very challenging running those leagues.
42:04I think the biggest thing to me is if, if you believe in a guy, go get the guy.
42:09I'm, I'm a, I'm a proponent of, of spending more earlier in the season, uh, than, than later in the season.
42:15Um, I don't like saving it. Uh, I, I just feel like there has been so many times where it's sort of
42:21like ending a salary cap draft where you have money left on the table.
42:25Like, well, why the heck didn't I go that extra buck on this player?
42:29So I tend to spend early. I tend to spend a lot early.
42:32Um, and, and I'll kind of like, you know, um, ration it out after that for, for injuries and bi-weeks and, and, and so on and so forth.
42:40I'll tell you this right now, David Hubbard, who won the 2016 FFPC main event along with Nelson Sousa that Hubbard owns a ton of teams.
42:47Um, and, and, uh, with, uh, Steve Yagalos, the series, those two have sort of partnered up Steve G fantasy sopranos for
42:53those people who are watching, you know, um, and Hubbard, um, told me once that, you know, he, he will spend, he
42:59will try to spend, um, the majority of his fab in September and October.
43:02So he doesn't have a whole lot to mess around with later on in the season because he runs so many teams,
43:08he doesn't want to have to worry about fab and all the, all the different, you know, significant difference makers in those leagues.
43:15It's easier if he goes in on guys, he believes in, in September.
43:18And quite frankly, that's just good advice. Like, I think that the biggest hits sometime come in September, um, you know, right
43:24away after week one, after week two, after week three.
43:27So I'm, I'm a big proponent of spending a lot, spending early.
43:30And you never know, like, like I just, I continue to get good buys and discounts off, you know, as you know,
43:36players, I never would have, would have thought I was going to get where I'm just bidding like the keep them honest type bids.
43:43And I ended up winning the player. You never know.
43:45There are certain players that, that, that just don't like spending at all.
43:49And you can use that to your advantage. If you are out there spending and constantly improving that churn of those last
43:55two or three players on your roster. One of the things that I've been really toying with in my, my brain, at
44:01least I haven't really thrown it out there as like a take, but like, it's sort of the opposite of a chopped
44:07league or a guillotine league, whatever you want to call it, where in a chopped guillotine league, I tell people to just
44:13hold as much as you possibly can because probabilities on your side to not spend.
44:17But the difference between that and a regular, you know, season long format where there's 12 teams and is that, you know,
44:23that the player pool is getting better and better every week as teams get chopped.
44:27Right. And so you want to play bully later on in the season because the entire point of that format is the free agent budget, budget bidding.
44:34Right. And so the thing that, that I toyed with though saying that, that I haven't really talked through as much is
44:40that when you are spending early in your season, you're, you are getting that player for the entirety of the season then
44:46as opposed to waiting and then just getting that player in week 13 onward, you know, like, of course, if Seth McGowan
44:52is sitting on, on waivers right now, right. And Jonathan Taylor goes down and it's week 11 and Taylor's out for the seat.
44:58Everyone knock on wood right now, but Taylor's, you know, out for the season.
45:02Seth McGowan would be a blow your fab kind of player, right?
45:05Because, you know, he's, he's more than likely going to take on a pretty big role in the Colts offense.
45:10But again, you're, you're getting that, like, it would be great to have all of your, your cash there.
45:16I get it, but you're also getting that player for only week 12 onward.
45:19And that's not going to be at necessarily as beneficial if you're like a fringe playoff team or something like that.
45:25And so there is that like nuance of like when you are getting that player and actually obtaining that player as well
45:31to be able to reap the rewards of that player moving forward versus, and then not only that, but as the season
45:37goes on, you know, more and more handcuffs end up getting rostered because we get a better idea of what the landscape looks like.
45:43And we're dropping the ninth and 10th round players that just didn't work out.
45:47You know what? That they were sitting on our roster in September that we're like, yeah, maybe it's just some variance and
45:53they're, they're going to bounce back in week three or four.
45:56And then they don't. And then, you know, they're just worthless assets for your team.
46:00So then what do you do? Well, like, it's like every week with my rest of season rankings, Eric, the, the, the
46:06handcuffs just go higher and higher in my rest of season rankings because we're learning more information about the other players that
46:12we had hoped for, but they're not doing anything.
46:15Like they're, they're clearly going down a path this season where the hopeful 10th round wide receiver is just not going to do anything.
46:21I'd rather just have, you know, Brian Robinson or whoever, right?
46:24You know, from a rest of season rankings perspective.
46:26So I think there's a lot of that nuance that gets lost with, with the free agent bidding that, that really, I
46:32haven't sat down enough to really sit and like process it out.
46:36That's probably gonna be an off season thing for me though.
46:39I think the other day, just real quick on the, on the, on the injury weight type guys, you know, we, we
46:45have this wide receiver depth and this tight end depth in this quarterback depth, you know, in like the high stakes arena,
46:51like an FFPC main event, big gorilla, baby girl or whatever.
46:54And you need that depth for the bi-week gauntlet.
46:56But once those buys are done and then you get to the league playoffs and then you get to the championship round
47:02where it's like this three week sprint, then you kind of like, I have seen so many teams with horrible depth win
47:08a million bucks or win 500,000 because they're number one, um, they, they, they built the team top heavy.
47:13So, so, um, uh, they, they can, um, the lineup sort of sets itself.
47:17Um, there's not a whole lot of question of, of, of getting your start sits wrong because your bench is so bad,
47:23but then you cut all that depth away and then you load up with all these injury away type running backs at the end.
47:29And then if something happens, oh my God, you can go from 300th place up to first place like that with one, you know, with one, one week.
47:37Um, and if you have those guys on your roster too.
47:40And I think like, you know, an FFPC, when you get to the league playoffs, the four teams that make your 12
47:46team playoff, they can still bid on players. And I think there's always like, kind of like, um, a chase and not a chase.
47:52I don't know what the right term is for it, but a battle to try to have more money than the other three teams in the playoffs.
48:00So if there's anybody out there, you can be the bully and pick those guys up, use those against those guys to,
48:05to advance the playoffs and then maybe win a million bucks.
48:08So that's, that's sad dude. Fab's another thing that, that I think is it's, it's more art than, than science.
48:14I don't know. Like maybe there's some science to it that I just haven't popped onto it yet.
48:19I, I just think it's just, it's luck. It's and, and it's, and it's experience, you know, just like, yeah.
48:24Yeah. I've gotten the question like through the years where they're like, when's the, where people are like, when's the best time to spend?
48:31And I've done research to see like where, when league winners pop and stuff like that.
48:35It's really hard to find like a definitive like line for it.
48:38And so the more that I've been toying with it is, is more of like thinking about from the game theory perspective
48:44of like when people are picking up backups, backup running backs mostly, cause that's, that's what we're going to spend the most money on.
48:51Or, um, you know, like, like thinking about having that player, like we said, for a long period of time, as opposed
48:57to week 10 onward or whatever the case may be.
48:59So like, it's more of the game theory stuff and thinking about how, how managers are managing their rosters throughout the season,
49:05as opposed to when the league winners actually hit, you know, and when those league winners are, are, you know, whether it's
49:11September, October, November, December, I don't think there's necessarily a true answer for that.
49:15But I think all the other stuff leans into what you were saying of spending early and doing that because you're getting
49:21those players for a long period of time. And then as the season goes, you have more information.
49:26And when you have more information, you start cutting that, cutting that bait, you know, you're just getting rid of the guys
49:32that just aren't doing anything on your bench. You know?
49:34Absolutely. I think that, uh, there's no real, I think the part of the reason that you haven't found, or it's been
49:40real difficult to find out when the league winners hit league winners hit at different times of the year, you know, sometimes,
49:46sometimes it's a torn ACL in September. Sometimes it's a quarterback change in November.
49:50Like you just, you never really know. Um, and, and it's, it's all over the place.
49:54Yeah. Uh, it's early obviously, but when we look back on this season, do you think that we're going to see that a particular draft strategy won out?
50:02Or do you think that this is going to be one of those seasons where you could go in a lot of
50:08different directions with, with what the optimal strategy was this year?
50:11I think the latter it's, it's tough to pick one right now.
50:14I think if there's one strategy, um, I I'm sure I, if they, if you're going to tell me, uh, you know,
50:20bulky, tell me one right now that, that worked out in 2026 is week six.
50:24I think if there's one, I have to say it's, and I know this is something that you've kind of gone away
50:30from as far as branding goes, but late round quarterback, um, I think has, has been working out this year for a
50:36lot of people, you know, whether it's basketball, whether it's, whether it's redraft.
50:40I mean, if, if you ended up skipping over the Josh Allen's, the Lamar Jackson's, the, the Drake may is another great example.
50:46If you end up skipping over those and then you hit on guys like Jordan love, rock purdy, um, Jacoby Brissett, Matthew
50:52Stafford, to a certain degree, Kyler Murray, we'll see what happens there.
50:55Bryce freaking young for God's sake. Yeah. Jared Goff is another one.
50:58Absolutely. I think, or Tyler Shook is another one.
51:01And I think like, if you, I mean, you could have waited and gotten like a, a, a, a shuck Bryce young
51:07team and just load it up everywhere else. And you're probably sitting pretty good right now.
51:11Now it's certainly, it takes a special type of person to do that.
51:15And I'm, I know I'm definitely not one of them, but I think that that's looking good right now.
51:20One of the things that, that has always been an outlier to me, as far as another strategy goes is how healthy these running backs have stayed.
51:27And JJ, I can't, I can't remember if it was you who was talking about this.
51:31This was like from a few months ago. We talk about the, the receiver injuries, uh, that, that have happened, like the
51:37soft tissue, the quads, the hamstrings or whatever. It seems like that's more prevalent in receivers than we're seeing, uh, in running backs.
51:43And I obviously know, um, Barkley has gone down, um, and, and we don't know what's going to happen with him.
51:49Um, and H and had the freak ACL, but you look at all these other guys that were drafted at the top
51:55of the main event in FFPC Gibbs, Robinson cook.
51:58I got the list in front of me, McCaffrey Taylor, chase Brown, Kenneth Walker Hampton has, has, has underwhelmed, but it hasn't been because of injury.
52:05Um, Derek Henry, I, you know, all those guys at the top, those first two rounds, you know, it looks like if
52:11you went with running back, running back to start off, you're probably in a good spot.
52:15Um, you brought up, and I think this changed the way I drafted a little bit this year, but like the death
52:21of the wide receiver too, where I put more of an emphasis on getting these, these target earners earlier in the draft.
52:27And then as a result, you know, normally that worked, you know, for, for the zero RB crowd, but now that the
52:33zero RB, um, running backs that you're getting in the ninth and 10th round, they get pushed up too.
52:38And again, I think that's a combination of things.
52:40I think it's better drafting. It's more information out there.
52:43Um, and it's just more experienced and so on and so forth.
52:46So it's been difficult to pinpoint one, but, um, if I had to pick one at this point, I think late round
52:52quarterback has certainly been working out for a lot of people so far.
52:56Yeah. It's been safe. I mean, obviously Josh Allen smashing, he's doing his thing, you know, he's, he's, you know, like clearly
53:02like if you drafted Josh Allen, you're not sad.
53:04That's for sure. No. Um, and I think the best part of his schedule is coming up too.
53:09Yeah. I mean, like it's a big Allen blow up.
53:12What he's doing on the ground right now is one of the most insane things I've ever seen in fantasy football.
53:17You know, it's just, it's crazy. And, you know, we, I did an episode on the late round quarterback, like back in
53:23July where I thought it was a really good year for it and a resurgence for it.
53:28The funny thing is we're not even seeing the mobile quarterbacks necessarily be the reason for that because a lot of them been hurt.
53:34You know, Jane Daniels got hurt. Lamar Jackson got hurt.
53:37Jackson Dart's been hurt. Uh, Jalen hurts now is, has this blood clot, but he's been banged up a little bit slash.
53:43They haven't been that good. So he hasn't been Drake may hasn't played that well.
53:47So it's been just this, like, there's been a lot of good quarterbacks.
53:51Like you said, that have been usable. I think that we're in a, in a very real era of platooning, you know,
53:57like of just a lot of people still have this old school mentality.
54:00I say old school, but I really mean between like 2014 to 2020, let's say of only, only drafting one court.
54:06This is less FFPC because it's obviously a little bit deeper on FFPC, but you know, in a, in a typical league,
54:12they're drafting one quarterback and they're not worrying about getting a second quarterback.
54:15And I remember writing my draft guide a couple of years ago of like, if you just draft two late round quarterbacks, right?
54:21Like two guys that are late that you feel decent about, maybe one's more of like a high ceiling, you know, mobile guy.
54:28One's just like a Jared Goff type. You can platoon those guys.
54:31Number one, you'll have a better hit rate than drafting a middle round quarterback in general, just based on the historical numbers.
54:37So, cause you're drafting two of them, but also you can play by matchup at the position and you can absolutely like,
54:43I played, you know, Jordan, I've, I've teams with Jordan love and Brock Purdy.
54:47And I just played Jordan love last week over Purdy.
54:49Like I had them ranked over him gained, you know, nine or 10 points or so by doing that.
54:54And you can do that each week. And I think that's the era that, that we're in more, you know, obviously if
55:00you're in a shallow league, you can get away with only rostering one and using the waiver wire and streaming and stuff.
55:06Streaming is just more difficult these days. It's just not as easy to do because the percent roster number, I think, I
55:12think, I think leagues are shifting more and more to more of the platoon style and rostering more than one quarterback.
55:18Even in like the 12 team, 20 round, the drafts, which are pretty deep.
55:22I was still as of like 2021 or whatever it was 2020, I was still just drafting one quarterback and then just,
55:28you know, but then I, it was the year and I can't remember what year it was, but Stafford got hurt and
55:34he was my only quarterback in like five or six leagues.
55:37And I was scrambling and there just was no quarterbacks on the waiver wire.
55:40And it take my teams that year. So now I've made the point of like, you know, always, even if I draft
55:46a quarterback early, I'm taking a second one just so I'm not left in the lurch.
55:51But then if you're going to employ that strategy, well, why not pick up two and play matchups?
55:56Because if you pick up two and play matchups with those guys, chances are you can wait and stack up your other
56:02positions and you're really not hurting anything about the opportunity costs of drafting, you know, Jackson or may or burrow or Allen
56:08or any of these guys, maybe not Allen. He's an alien, but, but, but getting two of these other guys that you
56:13can play matchups with, I just, I think that's, that's my preferred way to go.
56:18And certainly, you know, you hit on a bunch of guys that have been crushing it from the mid rounds and late rounds this year at quarterback.
56:25And, and people are very happy if they employed that strategy.
56:28Yeah. I got it. I like, I got to ask you a Packers question before we sort of wrap all this up.
56:34Everyone always does. Everyone always does. What's going on in this backfield?
56:37Are we going to, are we going to see someone emerge?
56:40And then I also like, have you heard anything?
56:42This is like a deep cut. And I know that maybe this is completely irrelevant for most of the audience, but I'm still want to get into it.
56:50I've added Sabian, Sabian Williams in a couple of leagues to just stash on IR, right?
56:54Like, do you think there's a chance that he ends up seeing some work because Marshawn Lloyd right now is last in
57:00the NFL in yards after contact per attempt. I know that he had a decent outing last week that he'll probably be
57:06fine against Dallas because it's Dallas, you know, but like, like, is something going to happen to this backfield?
57:11You know, it sounds like the Josh Jacobs thing is going in the wrong direction from him getting in terms of him getting on the field.
57:18We don't have to dig into that, but is there anything that we're going to see of relevance from this backfield at some point?
57:25Well, I think one of the things that was not talked about early on and now it is, is, is how bad the Packers offensive line was.
57:32And Green Bay historically does not make significant in-season changes outside of their roster.
57:36You know, they might bench a guy, bring a guy up from the practice squad, or maybe give a younger guy a
57:42shot who's already on the active roster. Very rarely do we see what happened after that Atlanta game where Brian Gutekunst went
57:48out and got Laken Tomlinson and Kevin Zeitler and, and Makai Becton.
57:51Like that was, that was a pretty significant thing for me to see that.
57:55So, um, and what do they do with the running back position?
57:58Well, not a whole lot. I mean, they're still giving, they made the Caleb Johnson trade obviously before the season started.
58:04But I think you can kind of see that, that he may have run his course in Green Bay with, with, um,
58:10the action that Pierre Strong got this week over him.
58:12Um, I think Lloyd is who he is at this point.
58:15This was basically his rookie year. I mean, he's had these nasty injuries and appendectomy throw that in there the last couple of years.
58:22So, um, I, I still don't think we can, I think this is like him being a rookie.
58:27I think next year we could see a more complete, more polished player.
58:30Um, but as of right now, I don't really think we're going to see anything more significantly from him.
58:35And if we do, quite frankly, it's probably because the improved play of the offensive line.
58:40Um, I don't envision anybody stepping up in this backfield.
58:43I don't, certainly it's possible. Josh Jacobs comes back this season.
58:45Um, I don't think, I think the NFL does not want a repeat of the Ray Rice situation, um, where they were
58:51this, they, they let this guy come off the exempt list.
58:54And then in November we see this video and it's, and it's really bad.
58:58What have you Savion Williams is a guy who is on my taxi squad still in two dynasty leagues and I'm keeping them there.
59:05Right. And we'll see what happens. I think with players like this and, and, and I, I don't know why I'm doing
59:11with Savion Williams because it's not like I'm very bullish on him.
59:14I think he's, he's a fun player. And certainly when he was healthy last year, they were using my special team.
59:20They used them a little bit on offense. Um, Matt Waldman from football guys, he said this one time that's always stuck
59:26with me when we talk about these gadget players.
59:28Well, what happens to gadgets? Sometimes they fall between the couch cushions and you, they're never found again.
59:33Right. And, and it's kind of true with Williams too.
59:36Like he just might be a gadget guy that maybe sometimes they, they focus in on them and utilize them, but you're
59:41never going to know when that is. And, and quite frankly, as long as I can keep him on my taxi squad for free.
59:48And if you can keep them on your IR for free, right?
59:51Sure. There's, there's something to be said for that, but active roster.
59:54If, if I got to put him in a, in a 20 man roster right now, I'm, I'm looking elsewhere.
60:00Cause I just, I don't really think the juice is worth the squeeze.
60:03I think that you really, you're just hoping and crossing your fingers that a Cordero Patterson outcome happens.
60:08And, and, and as we know that took like 40 years to happen, you know, like, like he was in the league
60:14for a while before we finally saw, but yeah, I mean like that's the comp of course.
60:19I think it's just interesting. Like it's, it's one of those things I want to toss out there on a show so
60:25that like, if you start to see it happen, you're like, Oh yeah, that if there's one backfield where a random weird
60:31thing could happen, it would probably be his backfield, right?
60:33Cause it's just so weak right now. But I also don't think that the coaching staff is one that would get super weird with it.
60:40You know, that would like really embrace a Savion Williams as like a 10 to 12 touch player or something like that.
60:46You know what I mean? So that's, that's more of the downside case.
60:50He is a really interesting prospect just from the standpoint of like what he brought to the table as a, as a
60:56hybrid, you know, I'm, I'm usually not much of a tweener kind of guy.
60:59Like I'm not really into the, into the running back wide receiver hybrid types.
61:03Um, but when they're free and you can throw them on IR, sure, you know, I'll do that all day.
61:09Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think that's what it comes down to that right now that the cost benefit is definitely like you should be doing it.
61:16There's nothing. Yeah. There's no reason. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah.
61:18All right. Before I let you go, give me a bold prediction for week six.
61:22This, and then this gets back to, um, you know, what we're talking about, uh, with, with range of outcomes, right?
61:28Because I could be very bold and people could call me an idiot and then, you know, this, this could happen.
61:34How about this? Since, since I'm a Packers guy, season ticket holder, love my green and gold Sunday night football.
61:39Now, um, we won't get Micah Parsons. This was supposed to be the, the, the Micah Parsons revenge game and he's still not ready.
61:46And I don't know if he's coming back next week.
61:48And I, I think the latest I read on that was that he is, he wants to take a little bit extra
61:54time to make sure that his body is balanced and he's not overcompensating for it, which is great.
61:59You know, let's, let's go with this, a bold prediction.
62:02Sunday night football Packers Cowboys, uh, both teams score in the forties.
62:05Jordan love and Dak Prescott combined for eight touchdown passes, right?
62:08Marshawn Lloyd scores three touchdowns this week. Okay. One through the air, two on the ground.
62:12And, um, we see, um, uh, CD lamb and, uh, George Pickens both have 130 yard games, uh, this year at the same time.
62:19First time we've seen it all season. Um, and I'll say golden, this is maybe this isn't even bold anymore, but I'll
62:25say golden and Watson combined for four touchdowns as well.
62:28So I'm very excited to see this game. Oh, it should be a good game.
62:32It should be a good game. The fireworks are going to be out.
62:35This is so, and we have been like, dude, the, the Sunday night.
62:39And the Thursday night and the Monday night games this year have been just chef's kiss.
62:43Awesome. Yeah. Like you, you can't plan it the way that, that, that it's been happening.
62:47But I think that the Packers and Cowboys continue that.
62:50I don't know who wins, but I know it will be entertaining.
62:53Yeah. That's awesome. Eric, this was great, man. I love talking to you.
62:57Love, love having these conversations and hopefully people enjoyed it.
62:59Like we, you know, there was some stuff that we were going to get to of like certain specific players and stuff.
63:05But I think that the process oriented stuff, you know, the, the psych psychological related stuff and how, you know, our brains
63:11work while we're managing our teams is really, really important in something that's just not talked about enough.
63:16So thank you for your time. Let everyone know where they can find you and what you're doing.
63:21Yeah. Eric Balkman on X. I do during the season, I do four shows Tuesday nights at 10 PM is the road
63:27of his high stakes slowdown Wednesday nights at 10 PM is the high stakes fantasy football hour Thursday nights at 7 PM
63:33is FFPC insider access Friday nights at 10 PM is a HSFF hour extra reps.
63:37All of those are on the FFPC YouTube X and Facebook pages.
63:40And obviously if you connect with me on X, you're going to see links to all that as well.
63:45So yeah, it's a great time to be a football fan.
63:48And it's always good chopping it up with you, JJ.
63:51This was a lot of fun. I have a tendency to ramble.
63:54Thank you for being forgiving in that regard, but this was awesome, man.
63:58I really appreciate it. Yeah. Thanks again for coming on as usual, everyone, make sure you check out late round.com become a member.
64:04If you want to subscribe to the newsletter, at least it's free.
64:07You know, you don't have to, you don't have to pay any money for that.
64:11Check all that out. Late round.com. Otherwise everyone, thanks for tuning in.
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