From the episode
On throws 10 plus or more yards on the field. Aaron Rodgers has completed just 37% of his throws... He's a wide receiver 10 and targets wide receiver 18 in expected points. So he's as positive regression as it gets.
STACKED’s take
Metcalf's 37% deep completion rate and Pittman's absence create positive regression setup.
Metcalf is wide receiver 35 season-long but has posted 10.6 and 14 fantasy points the last two weeks. On throws 10+ yards downfield, Aaron Rodgers has completed just 37% of passes (only better than Malik Willis), creating positive regression opportunity. Metcalf is wide receiver 10 in targets and wide receiver 18 in expected points—as positive regression as it gets. Against Indianapolis, Michael Pittman's absence for the next couple weeks matters; it forces Rodgers to throw to Metcalf instead of Jeremy Bernard or Roman Wilson. Sauce Gardner (Colts CB) has had a DK Metcalf-like season (very up and down), and Metcalf has 60 pounds on Gardner in one-on-one coverage, giving him good odds on 50-50 balls to the sideline.
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