Underdog Fantasy Football Show

J.K. Dobbins is cited as evidence that dual-threat quarterbacks elevate running back production. Dobbins is fantastic next to dual-threat quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, supporting the thesis that Rashad White will benefit from playing next to Jaden Daniels.

Katron Allen is a day-three rookie running back in the Washington backfield with rushing threat competition from Ja'Kory Krosky-Meritt and Rashad White. Allen profiles as a success-rate goal-line type running back. The source likes him as a prospect but expects day-three picks to yield almost nothing, suggesting limited fantasy value. There is a low-end path if he becomes a huge factor, but the source views it as unlikely he will be entrenched in an effective high-volume rushing role.

Jerry Jeudy is positioned as a clear number-two wide receiver on the Browns behind Casey Concepcion. The source expects Concepcion to be better than Jeudy eventually and projects Concepcion to establish himself as the Browns' best wide receiver by year-end, implying Jeudy's role and production will be secondary. Jeudy is currently getting eight targets a game.

Mike McDaniel hung wanted posters around the GM's office wanting Keaton Mitchell and the fullback they signed, signaling strong organizational commitment. However, Liam Cohen notes that if Amari Hampton misses half the season, it's unclear if Mitchell will get 15 touches or just 10-12 with Kamani Vidal also involved. Cohen prefers Mitchell in best-ball format because it's impossible to predict when he'll have his 50-yard touchdown games, but he should be drafted in every format to see what happens in week one. When the Dolphins had the number-two scoring offense in the NFL a few years ago, they got two top-five scoring seasons from Keaton Mitchell and Raheem Mostert, plus the number-one scoring wide receiver in Tyreek Hill. Now with Justin Herbert replacing Tua, there's potential for a similar outcome. Cohen believes Mitchell's ADP will only get higher as training camp buzz builds. He's not a pure handcuff because Kamani Vidal will play, but he has flex appeal.

Fell off a cliff last year on 150 touches with extremely poor underlying metrics. Showed signs of slowing down last season, and the Vikings will be careful to limit his touches this season. Liam Cohen ranked Jordan Mason ahead of Aaron Jones before the Collar report and is now completely doubling down on that ranking. Cohen views Aaron Jones as one of his fades and felt good after writing him up. He believes the team knows Jones has hit his cliff, evidenced by Jones returning on a much smaller contract than previously.

Being selected in the 11th round on Underdog and 13th round on Yahoo, six to eight picks after Aaron Jones. The Vikings backfield is the cheapest in drafts with no starting running back going later than Aaron Jones or Jordan Mason. Liam Cohen projects a pathway for Mason to post 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns as the Vikings RB1 for early-down work. Aaron Jones fell off a cliff last year on 150 touches with extremely poor underlying metrics, while Mason averaged the 12th most yards per carry and 10th most yards after contact per rush. During the four games without Aaron Jones last year (weeks 3-7), the Vikings offense was not cooking, and Mason was RB16-RB24 on usage in half-PPR, but Cohen likes him more in half-PPR than full PPR. The Vikings are leaning more into outside zone, which plays into Mason's strengths as a runner. If the Vikings' injury-plagued offensive line stays healthy (they only played together 25% of snaps last season), the running game could improve significantly. Cohen views him as having a pathway similar to the Jamal Williams season where he gobbles up goal-line touchdowns; at the very high end, he could be a Javante Williams-type outcome. Even eight goal-line touchdowns would be enough for him to be a flex play in half-PPR.

Currently under investigation by the district attorney's office regarding potential domestic violence charges. While cleared to practice now, new evidence could emerge at any point, triggering a commissioner's exemption. Typical suspension for domestic violence-related issues is around six games. This legal uncertainty creates opportunity for Marshawn Lloyd to potentially become the starter not due to injury but due to off-field issues.

Not a real running back but rather an RB3 hybrid/fullback player. Was a lead blocker for Josh Jacobs for much of last season. The Raiders want Marshawn Lloyd to be the RB2, not Brooks, limiting his fantasy relevance.

Lloyd has dealt with recurring hamstring injuries but is currently on the practice field looking good. He underwent full body imaging and discovered he was overcompensating at his ankles and hips due to a prior torn ACL, leading to soft tissue injuries. He's worked with doctors and medical advancements to address these issues. Currently the RB1 or RB2 in drills depending on Josh Jacobs' availability. Lloyd is being priced as if he won't play this year, but Liam Cohen believes his injury risk is not materially higher than other backs given he's healthy today. The team wants him to be the RB2; Chris Brooks is more of an RB3 hybrid/fullback player. Josh Jacobs is older and injury-prone, creating a pathway for Lloyd to get significant touches. His ADP has fluctuated based on injury news and practice participation, but the clearest pathway for him to be the number two runner is if he stays healthy. Lloyd caught a bunch of passes in college and has the size to handle the rock and goal-line work. He was a third-round pick (88 overall) for the Packers. Third-round fantasy running backs going into year three have historically been exciting. If he stays on the field through Labor Day, he should be ranked right next to Tank Bigsby as one of the best handcuffs in fantasy.

Hubbard is not expected to completely go away if Jonathan Brooks emerges as the lead back; he's a fine enough back but won't prevent Brooks from reclaiming a lead role if Brooks returns to his early second-round profile. There's a chance Brooks and Hubbard split work early in the season, with a toss-up of who's actually the starter by Halloween and Thanksgiving. Hubbard's presence doesn't significantly diminish Brooks' upside.

Brooks is a running back two drafted in the 11th round on Yahoo (9th on Underdog) with more talent than all other running backs drafted around him; he can catch passes, has lateral shiftiness, finishes through contact, and has the size coveted at the position. Despite two ACL tears—one during his final year at Texas and another in his third game of his rookie season after not playing until week 12—he didn't play all of last year. The Panthers are taking a slow approach with him in training camp, and he hasn't reached his top speed yet. There's very little tape to evaluate since the first ACL tear, though he had some nice flashes in a Tampa Bay game when he returned. The Panthers are clearly relying on him based on their offseason moves, going from Rico Datto (RB1 in multiple weeks last year) to only adding A.J. Dillon. Brooks has the highest upside and league-winning potential among running backs drafted after him if he claims his backfield. He's climbed 21 spots during the offseason and has a chance to be the Panthers' most talented back. Hubbard is not expected to completely go away if Brooks emerges as the lead back; he's a fine enough back but won't prevent Brooks from reclaiming a lead role if Brooks returns to his early second-round profile. There's a chance Brooks and Hubbard split work early in the season, with a toss-up of who's actually the starter by Halloween and Thanksgiving.

Bigsby was traded to the Eagles in week two for fifth and sixth round picks and posted elite efficiency metrics last year: RB1 overall in EPA per carry, RB2 in yards per carry, and RB6 in success rate among 60 qualifying running backs—all better than Saquon Barkley. He's the clear handcuff to Barkley and would immediately enter the top-15 fantasy running back conversation if Barkley misses time. His efficiency metrics suggest he might be the best handcuff on the board, ahead of Isaiah Pacheco. Bigsby is the fifth handcuff off the board but should be ranked higher; there's a legitimate case for him to be the number-one handcuff in fantasy football this season. The Eagles offense is superior to other backup situations, and Bigsby has evidence of being pretty good, unlike Isaiah Pacheco. He's a best-ball play rather than a redraft staple, but grabbing him as your RB5 alongside an RB4 like Chris Rodriguez or Bill Krosky Merritt allows you to play both sides of the sleeper profile.

Rodriguez has a history with Jaguars OC Liam Cohen, who has been excellent for fantasy running backs; Cohen describes Rodriguez as a thumper who picks up hard yards. Rodriguez is more trusted than committee mate Basial Tootin right now and is likely to get goal-line touches. At 5'11", 224 lbs, he won't get many receptions, but if he captures 80% of Travis Etienne's RB10 production from last year, he'll be valuable as a flex starter or RB4. He had a left foot procedure following an early offseason injury but is expected to be a full go at training camp. Rodriguez's EPA per carry metrics on short yardage (5 or fewer yards to go) and in the red zone are elite; he posted +0.2 EPA per carry in the red zone last season, significantly better than committee mates Basial Tootin and Travis Etienne. His upside case includes a Javante Williams-type range of outcomes, with potential to handle goal-line carries and churn yardage in short-yardage situations.

JJ Zachariason uses Kyler Murray as a historical example of late-round QB success and contrasts his elite supporting cast (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Juwan Jennings) against Malik Willis's inferior receiver group (Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Malik Washington, Kevin Coleman Jr.), noting Murray gets drafted a few rounds later due to this cast advantage.

JJ Zachariason targets Lamar Jackson in the mid-round five to mid-round six window as part of his preferred QB tier alongside Joe Burrow and Jaden Daniels.

JJ Zachariason targets Joe Burrow in the mid-round five to mid-round six window as part of his preferred QB tier alongside Lamar Jackson and Jaden Daniels.

JJ Zachariason targets Jaden Daniels in the mid-round five to mid-round six window as part of his preferred QB tier alongside Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.

JJ Zachariason is drafting Josh Allen in the third round as part of his QB strategy in a different quarterback pool environment than the prior year.

JJ Zachariason identifies Malik Willis as a primary late-round QB sleeper with high odds of finishing the season as QB1. Willis's offensive scheme emphasizes mobility—"attack every single blade of grass"—which contrasts favorably against Quinn Ewers's point-and-shoot approach. Zachariason notes rushing injury risk but expects high-end fantasy moments and compares Willis to the 2017–2018 late-round rushing QB archetype (Colin Kaepernick era) that fantasy has since priced out. Willis's receiver group (Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Malik Washington, Kevin Coleman Jr.) is inferior to elite supporting casts like Kyler Murray's (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Juwan Jennings), which is why Murray gets drafted a few rounds later. Zachariason recommends Willis as a bench stash even in 10–12 team leagues given small-sample upside.

Naylor is being drafted in the 13th round on Underdog but remains undrafted on Yahoo, making him a significant value play. The Raiders' passing attack is structured around Brock Bowers, who will not replicate Jason Witten's 36% target share and 50% air-yard share from last year. This creates a clear second-pass-catcher role for Naylor. The coaching staff specifically brought Naylor back to Las Vegas, signaling confidence in his fit. Among all NFL teams, only the Dolphins (Malik Washington), Commanders, and Raiders have a WR2/TE2 drafted later than Naylor, despite the Raiders' passing attack needing a consistent secondary option. Naylor showed consistency with the Vikings under Kevin O'Connell last year and has overlap with Clint Kubiak's offensive concepts: condensed splits, stacks, breaking routes, and off-frame catch opportunities. His tape shows strong route-running ability and separation creation, exemplified by a play against Atlanta where he elevated for a 14-yard gain on a wheel route. Naylor is positioned as the clear second pass-catcher for the Raiders, with no ambiguity about his role, making him the safer bet for consistent target volume.

Worthy had a disastrous 2024 season marked by multiple injuries: a dislocated shoulder in Week 1 (from Travis Kelce running into him), an ankle injury in Week 5, and another ankle setback in Week 13. These injuries forced Andy Reid to limit Worthy's route tree, particularly crossing routes, which were a strength two seasons ago when Worthy ranked WR27 in full PPR. Reid acknowledged the team was "afraid to do certain things with Worthy" after the shoulder injury to avoid further setbacks. Worthy has underperformed as a downfield receiver despite his elite speed; last season he caught only 4 of 16 targets on 20+ yard routes; in his rookie year he caught 7 of 21 on such routes and just 4 of 13 in the intermediate range. Cornerbacks play through his body easily due to his weight and size (140 pounds), and physical corners at the line of scrimmage force him to play at his speed rather than allowing him to play fast. Over his career, Worthy has reached 80 receiving yards in only 3 of 34 appearances—a concerning efficiency metric. If Worthy returns healthy in 2025, the offense plans to reintroduce screens (he averaged 1.5 screens per game two seasons ago but only 0.5 last year) and crossing routes, but his down-to-day consistency as a wide receiver remains questionable and may be overly reliant on Patrick Mahomes' downfield accuracy, which has been inconsistent the past two years.

Golden is being drafted in the 10th round on Underdog but falls to the 15th round on Yahoo, making him a value pick in an elite passing offense. The Packers are projected for the eighth-most points in the league, and Golden played 72 snaps in one- or two-receiver sets as a rookie compared to just eight pass-route snaps for his counterpart Jaylen Reed in those same personnel groupings. As a rookie, Golden played 50% of snaps and ran 1.44 yards per route and 16 targets per route—passable for a first-round draft pick. The Packers drafted him 23rd overall and chose not to re-sign Dontavian Wicks or Romeo Dobbs, signaling internal confidence in his development. LaFleur simplified his role as a rookie with repetitive routes, but there is a pathway for expanded usage and more week-to-week consistency if he receives more diverse route concepts. Golden's snap share is expected to increase significantly from his rookie 50% to closer to 85% on a per-route basis in 2025, with more diverse route concepts from LaFleur. On tape, he shows explosiveness and nearly connected on several long touchdowns.

Shaheed signed a $51 million, three-year deal with the Seahawks this offseason—more guaranteed money than Kenneth Walker received from the Chiefs—signaling the team's financial commitment to him as a receiver. Currently drafted as WR57, he offers baseline positive projection plus contingent upside if JSN (who had 35% target share) goes down. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported Shaheed had a major spring and is hitting it off with Sam Darnold, with the offense planning to give him more short and intermediate routes. In a 15-game stretch with the Saints (2024–2025) under Spencer Rattler and injured Derek Carr, he averaged 57 yards per game and ranked WR38–WR30 in usage. The Seahawks ranked 30th in 11-personnel (three-WR sets) at 42%, meaning the team will rely heavily on two-WR sets where Shaheed should take over for aging Cooper Cup (33 years old). Among all WR2/TE2 depth-chart players, only the Dolphins, Raiders, and Commanders have later ADP than Shaheed despite Seattle projecting for the ninth-most points in the league and ranking second in scoring last year. Last year he caught just 15 of 26 targets for 188 yards in the regular season (3 catches, 78 yards in playoffs) and saw his route target rate drop from 22% in New Orleans to 14% with the Seahawks, but the financial investment and decision to let Cooper Cup age out suggest Shaheed will be featured more prominently in 2025.

Listed in the next tier down from the seventh-round runningbacks (Chuba, Jalen Warren, Tony Pollard), alongside common guy and Rico Daddle. Analyst notes this tier 'is a very different feeling having one of those guys in your flex spot versus, you know, someone that's on your bench in week one.'

Listed among seventh-round running backs that 'feel so good' in half PPR scoring. Analyst notes these price tags feel attractive and that having one of these guys in your flex spot versus on your bench in week one is 'a very different feeling.'

Listed among seventh-round running backs that 'feel so good' in half PPR scoring. Analyst notes these price tags feel attractive and that having one of these guys in your flex spot versus on your bench in week one is 'a very different feeling.'

Listed among seventh-round running backs that 'feel so good' in half PPR scoring. Analyst notes these price tags feel attractive and that having one of these guys in your flex spot versus on your bench in week one is 'a very different feeling.'

Analyst suggests Kyler Murray 'would be a better pick' than the Cardinals running backs in best ball and believes 'there's a chance Kyler Murray could be a top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.' Prefers Murray over the backfield options in that range.

Production was not front-weighted; he was 'lighting it up' from week 16 through the Super Bowl, suggesting strong late-season momentum heading into the new year. Offensive line improvements could help. Analyst states 'I do think that Ramondre Stevenson is not some pushover back' and understands taking swings on both him and Travion Henderson.

Drafted as RB28 despite finishing last year as RB21 in points per game, representing significant undervaluation. Analyst notes he's 'not some pushover back' and likes his profile. He's the biggest back in the backfield, so he'll get goal-line work. Film from past season was better in pass protection and included big wheel route work; he ran hard between the tackles.

Very slight with explosiveness in open field, but has major issues in passing situations. 'Horrific in passing situations. So bad, awful hands, even on swing and flat routes, and then horrific when it came to pass protection.' At ~185 pounds, he needs air back to him, but lacks it. These deficiencies in passing-down role might minimize what he can do early and even later in the season. Analyst does not like his chances of carving out a significant role.

Analyst believes Jordan Mason 'possibly can like goal line himself into like eight touchdowns this season,' which would provide meaningful upside. Brad Beats 84 message supports this: 'I'm a Jordan Mason bull this year simply because I believe a more efficient offense means more goals to go to temps, which should be handled by Mason eight plus touchdown upside.'

Despite being the more talented option, Jordan Mason is 'such a zero as a pass catcher' that even if Aaron Jones goes down, he won't have much receiving juice on top of the carries. This limits his ceiling in PPR formats and overall fantasy upside.

Younger and more powerfully built than Aaron Jones; analyst believes if one of these guys was going to explode for 10 touchdowns, it would be Jordan Mason, not Aaron Jones. Had 10 of the 15 combined carries inside the 10-yard line (versus Aaron Jones' 5), giving him more goal-line opportunity. Rush yards over expected is positive 12% versus Aaron Jones' negative 4%. Analyst prefers Jordan Mason straight up and notes his efficiency is better.

Analyst calls Aaron Jones 'one of the easiest fades out there.' Despite being the last quote-unquote starting running back to be drafted in fantasy, there are five or six running back twos selected ahead of the Vikings running back one at this point. Rush yards over expected is negative 4% versus Jordan Mason's positive 12%.

31 years old with 5 games missed due to hip, shoulder, toe, hamstring, knees, and toes injuries. All of his per-season per-touch numbers were worse last year. Analyst expresses concern that the cliff has arrived: 'once you start hitting that the cliff is here and the cliff has arrived... I'm kind of worried we're at that point here.'

Last year was his lowest yards per carry season (career low by 0.3 yards). Even when the Vikings offense is really good, fantasy points at running back don't materialize; there's not much ceiling. In 2024 when Vikings scored 9th most points in NFL, Aaron Jones ranked as RB20 in points per game. He and Jordan Mason combined for only 8 attempts inside the 5-yard line and 15 carries inside the 10-yard line (which would rank 30th among all individual ball carriers), indicating insufficient touchdown opportunities.

Woody Marks expected to handle passing situations and pass-game work for Texans, with David Montgomery taking early-down role. Analyst notes Marks could make backfield close to even by end of season. Texans were tied for 32nd in yards after contact per attempt last season (same as Marks and Nick Chubb), suggesting offensive line limitations.

Analyst expects David Montgomery to be early-down guy with Woody Marks handling pass-game work. Offensive coordinator Nick Haley chose committee backfield last year and grew up watching Patriots who always chopped backfield into twos or threes. Baseline case is Montgomery gets early downs, Marks gets passing situations. Texans offensive line concerns (31st in EPA per carry, 22nd in rush yards per game since 2023) limit upside. Analyst prefers to draft someone with first pick of fifth round who has chance to return value as second or third round pick—doesn't see that ceiling with Montgomery.

Analyst projects David Montgomery as flex-to-low-end RB2 at best, not a true difference-maker. Early-down role with Woody Marks handling passing situations. Texans offensive line has been 31st in EPA per carry and 22nd in rush yards per game since 2023—very poor. Analyst notes both pro and con cases hinge on volume, which is concerning when both sides make same argument. Compares to running back dead-zone archetypes (Chuba Hubbard, Isaiah Pacheco, James Connor, Rashad White, Mike Davis) that have failed more often than succeeded. If it hits: 14+ touches/week for 17 games with improved red zone efficiency. If it fails: typical dead-zone outcome. Rookie center Keelan Rutledge changing positions adds concern.