Underdog Fantasy Football Show

Marvin Harrison Jr. has an effort problem, particularly in blocking, and is not earning targets by doing other stuff at 100 percent caliber; he runs game routes like 50 plus percent of the time, so he's not going to get the football. He's not going to get any manufactured touches, and while he's good enough to dunk on a couple guys throughout the year and has some success on in-breaking routes, it will be very hard to figure out when those are going to come. Hayden We doesn't think he's going to be a priority in the offense at all. This is a big week for him to show he's seen the noise and locked in, or it's going to be much of the same. He's gotten slower since his rookie year and put on more weight.

Luther Burden is outside the top 42 wide receivers this week, facing a Vic Fangio defense with the Buccaneers' third string quarterback; he's not even a full-time player.

Rome Odunze is outside the top 42 wide receivers this week, facing a Vic Fangio defense with the Buccaneers' third string quarterback; he's not even a full-time player, and the matchup is simply too much.

Terry McLaurin is outside the top 42 wide receivers this week, facing outside corners and downfield stuff against Marcus Mariota and the Seattle Seahawks defense; the matchup is unfavorable.

Quentin Johnston is outside the top 42 wide receivers this week, facing a Vic Fangio defense with the Buccaneers' third string quarterback; he's not even a full-time player.

Chris Godwin is outside the top 42 wide receivers this week, facing a Vic Fangio defense with the Buccaneers' third string quarterback; Hayden We notes that the matchup is simply unfavorable.

Xavier Worthy has an ADP of 7 and 39% of his targets have been at the line of scrimmage; he's getting bubble screens and some downfield and intermediate targets, but Hayden We is not impressed with what he's doing with them. Despite this, Worthy could float to a top 40 wide receiver this year without even having to do much on an individual basis, given the offense is projected for a ton of points.

Malik Washington had a highly productive week, but faces a Kansas City defense projected for the second fewest points against Steve Spagnuolo; Hayden We calls this the 'PPR scam of the week.' Washington is expected to lose by 10 points, doesn't come off the field much, and Caleb Douglas is out with Chris Bell as the starter opposite him. Through two weeks, Washington is wide receiver 32 in usage and wide receiver 28 in targets per game in half PPR, with probably more targets available this week, but the matchup is unfavorable.

Trey Tucker is the Raiders' best wide receiver and will not get manufactured touches; Hayden We compares him to Rashid Shaheed with Clint Kubiak, expecting the Raiders to drop back more as a 2-0 team now expected to lose. Tucker is projected to finish like a top 40 wide receiver across the year, though he faces Brandon Staley's defense built to stop downfield passing. Hayden We overrides the tier placement to C-tier, noting Tucker is definitely operating as the top wide receiver for the Raiders right now.

Hayden We expects Diggs to catch four or five passes this week, keeping him in D-tier despite the lower volume projection.

Addison's season has not begun, but Hayden We sees increased odds of a big post-move touchdown this week against Tampa Bay with Kyler Murray healthy and the Buccaneers functioning as a pass funnel; the game is not expected to be in rainy conditions, and the Buccaneers are projected for 22 points, making Addison a fine dart throw despite Jacob Parrish being on the injury report.

Stefon Diggs is WR35 coming off a two-touchdown game with awesome goal-line stuff from David Blau. However, this week is like a bye week against the Seattle Seahawks, who are the second-best fantasy defense since Week 10 when adjusted for schedule. Nicky Manwari will be in the area where Diggs occupies. The Seahawks might not have both deep safeties and Sam Cosme is in concussion protocol (their best healthy offensive lineman). The Commanders are projected for only 16.5 points with backup guards against elite defensive tackles.

Denzel Boston is WR34 against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have missed 24 tackles on defense through two games and Boston has broken tackles on the way to long TDs. However, he'll see a lot of J.C. Horn and Mike Jackson who should theoretically shut down his type of WR. Boston is WR19 and WR10 to open the season but that doesn't mean much for fantasy since he likely wasn't started. He has a 21% target share (WR30 stuff) and WR29 in expected points. The Browns are projected for only 20 points and Deshaun Watson played pretty decent last year. There's a trap factor here but Boston is a really good player.

Michael Wilson is WR33 against the San Francisco 49ers on the road as 8.5-point underdogs. Garbage time might be easier with Nick Bosa out for multiple weeks and the 49ers' defensive line already banged up significantly with Michael Williams not returning and two defensive tackles on injured reserve. Last year in Week 11, Jacoby Brissette threw for 185 yards to Wilson in garbage time against the 49ers. This is competent garbage time (different from Cooper Rush or Jordan Love garbage time). LaFleur's comment about having other guys suggests Michael Wilson and Trey McBride are the primary targets with Marvin on the sideline.

DK Metcalf is thriving with around 26% of his team's targets in the first two weeks and 48% and 30% of air yards. He's WR9 in expected points and WR4 in targets. However, he's facing the Bengals and the underlying issue is that Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy's 2014 offense doesn't gel with Metcalf's role. Rodgers is getting his ass kicked with unblocked pressures and when forced into one-on-one situations, Metcalf gets swallowed by players like Christian Gonzalez. The air yards are awesome but at some point he has to be started.

Khalil Shakir is WR31 and his role has changed this year. With DJ Moore likely playing but potentially not getting full snaps and Keon Coleman out with an ankle injury, Shakir will need to be unlocked more. He's been a real player for Buffalo when needed and is WR9 in usage over the last four games including postseason. The Bills are projected for 29 points and Derwin James hasn't been practicing, making Shakir a solid football player on a team projected for many points.

Rashad Bateman is WR28 and was WR10 on WR17 usage last week. With Zay Flowers likely out (hasn't practiced all week), Bateman is the clear focal point with no other viable targets behind him. The Cowboys' coverage has been unreal with injuries to Kobe Durant (hamstring), Malik Hooker (safety), and Sean Lee (linebacker). The Ravens are projected for 28.5 points with Derek Henry and Mark Andrews likely getting touchdowns, leaving another TD for Bateman. However, the Ravens have looked worse in second halves and Lamar Jackson was pressured on 55% of dropbacks last week with Ronnie Stanley dealing with a toe.

Emeka Egbuka is WR27 against the Minnesota Vikings, but this is a difficult matchup. Baker Mayfield has completed only 11 of 25 throws 10+ yards downfield (worse than Cooper Rush and Aaron Rodgers), has been abysmal to start the season, is running into sacks, and lost the most EPA for sacks. The Vikings have been the best fantasy WR defense over the last 10 games and Brian Flores' defense is fully unlocked with Dallas Turner, Jalen Redman, and Caleb Banks. Tampa Bay is projected for only 20.5 points (23rd). Egbuka could find success on quick outs but the floor is very uncomfortable.

Debo Samuel's route rate jumped from 55% to 80% last week after Demarcus Robinson missed time, condensing the WR room. He's WR26 in usage and WR33 in expected points against Arizona. Debo has had screens, backfield usage, carries, quick outs off play action, and intermediate targets in both games. The 49ers are projected for the third-most points and Debo is a must-start layup with a healthy appearance on tape.

Josh Downs is WR25 and running about 60% of his routes out of the slot. Shane Steichen clearly wants Downs as the centerpiece of the pass game, getting him in motion frequently with lots of little option routes where he's at his best. Downs can threaten intermediate routes more than most slot receivers and Steichen is positioning him to avoid Derek Stingley through motion stacks. Without Alec Pierce, the offense might be constricted, but Downs' role is secure.

Jalen Coker is WR7 in usage to start the year and averaging 19 half-PPR points in his last four outings including the first two games of this season. The Panthers offense is high in neutral pass rate, neutral pace, and average depth of targets with production funneled to top receivers. Coker played through an ankle injury last week and looked incredible; he's in an awesome spot especially if Denzel Ward faces T-Mac more often.

Moore is WR23 but Hayden starts him because Bears are projected for 29 points vs. Chargers. Moore missed Week 1.5 with AC joint injury; limited practice Wednesday (caught ball above head, sign he'll play); didn't practice Thursday. Hayden expects Moore to get injection, wear brace, and not have same exact role. Even with reduced role, 29-point projection is too high to bench. Chargers defense equally bad as others discussed; small at corner, and Moore is tough tackle when fully healthy. AC joint injuries typically binary: either have mobility/comfort with injection or don't. Moore says he wants to play, so Hayden expects injection + brace.

Rice's role has officially changed: screen rate down from 10% (past two seasons) to 3%, but route participation up to career-high 84.5% of dropbacks. Despite linear skillset vs. WRs drafted around him, Hayden believes Rice won't totally fail because Chiefs score lots of points and he's on field all the time. However, he's been blocking for Xavier Worthy on screens (problem) and Kenneth Walker catching passes (problem). Matchup vs. Dolphins is excellent: Chiefs projected for 28 points; Dolphins defense is ACC-level with massive coverage busts (single Dolphin didn't touch 49er entire game last week). Dolphins weak over middle with rookies swimming in slot and at LB—Rice's strength. Patrick Mahomes throwing to WRs at lowest rate in league (42.5%), mostly to Kelce.

Nabers is WR21 vs. Titans. Hayden frames this as massive discussion: if Jamis Winston has anything, this is the week to show it. Ravens are favorites; Titans cornerback room is absolute mess through two weeks. Titans allowed league-high 81% completion rate on throws to WRs with 11.3 yards/target. Shredded by DeVonta Smith and Donovan Wicks; Cordell Flott (prized FA) injured, status uncertain. Hayden moves Nabers to top of B-tier. Caveat: shoulder injury (long-term dislocation issue) is concerning—he's been practicing and got imaging, says he'll play through it, but repeated dislocations make it easier to pop out. Tape in Week 1 showed rough edges; Week 2 had yards-after-catch moments if he stayed on feet.

Williams is WR20 based on matchup vs. Jets. Hayden expects classic fantasy pattern: dud-dud-boom cycle. Lions projected for 5th-most points vs. Jets, who lack one safety and don't have great outside corners. Key caveat: Williams won't get layup targets he had with Sam Bradford (fact of life with new QB). However, Lions' OL is struggling, so downfield throws to Williams aren't worst case. Williams is positive regression candidate; usage still there. Per Hayden's model, he's WR28 overall but could finish WR3 given 95% snap rate. Crossers against grain gave consistent floor with Bradford; now it's all outbreakers and downfield routes.

McConkey's impact is stark: Chargers averaged 6.7 yards/play and 41% success rate with him on field vs. 3.6 yards/play and 31% success rate without him (34 snaps). This pattern was nearly identical to Week 1. Hayden hopes for full-time role; McConkey should get high volume because Chargers face Bills (expected to lose by 7) and must pass. However, both blocking TEs will be out, left guard may not play well, and Christian Benford (top corner) likely covers Quinton Johnston, leaving rest of secondary vulnerable. Rib injury improving after another week. Hayden moves McConkey to B-tier due to limited snaps and injury concerns, despite strong efficiency.

Evans is WR18 despite running routes on 72% of dropbacks (solid rate). However, this 20% absence means he misses ~1 TD/week opportunity. Week 1 was strong, but Week 2 vs. dominant matchup yielded only 3 catches for 54 yards. Hayden projects Evans as boom-bust WR to the Niners, who are projected for 3rd-most points. Cardinals secondary is in terrible shape: Will Johnson (top corner, projected 1st-round pick) likely out for year; Max Melton missed time with toe injury; Garrett Williams limited with Achilles injury. Coverage busts on tape. Evans hasn't practiced (hip injury), but Hayden suspects it's vet day management, not real injury (similar to groin/quad in training camp).

Higgins is averaging 105 air yards and 25% target share through two weeks, ranking WR12 in targets per game. He's a buy-low since 2023 with Joe Burrow healthy: WR15 on WR10 usage (similar to George Pickens' situation). Hayden notes Higgins hasn't scored big plays yet but trusts the over-the-middle routes (Jamar Chase making sideline catches while Higgins runs in-breaker after in-breaker). Joey Porter Jr. returned limited but unlikely to play. Bengals are first in neutral pass rate. Steelers projected for only 23 points, so no shootout expected.

Waddle was the focal point of Denver's offense in Week 2 with 10 targets and 14.3 expected half-PPR points. Hayden trusts Week 2's tape showing Waddle in screen game, quick outs, and layup stuff, plus downfield routes (big post with both outside receivers running cuts to bring safeties down). Even though Week 1 was quiet (Bo Nix not pulling trigger), Hayden expects Waddle to remain focal point. Broncos are expected to lose at home with 44.5 total (lowest projected for either team all season), forcing high volume. Broncos are #1-2 in neutral pass rate.

Hayden ranks DeVonta Smith WR13 vs. consensus WR7, citing concerns about the Eagles' game script and offensive volume. Smith has a hamstring injury (limited practice) but was excellent in Week 2 with 4 passes in the two-minute drill. The matchup vs. Chicago is excellent (Tyreek Stevenson cooked, Jalen Johnson involved), but Hayden worries the Eagles are only projected for 23 points—a full TD below comparable teams—suggesting a safe, run-heavy game script where Smith gets ~7 targets while others get 10+. This is a tier below his consensus rank.

Pickens was drafted as a top-12 WR despite only 0.27 TD/game through two weeks (6 targets, 3 catches, 28 yards in Week 1; 8 targets, 6 receptions, 40 yards in Week 2). When CD Lamb missed four games, Pickens scored 5 TDs (1.25 TD/game). Hayden views him as a buy-low: drafted 24th overall expecting slight loss if Lamb stays healthy, but offering first-round upside if Lamb goes down. Pickens is WR16 on WR12 usage with 22% target share (WR1-2 border), running cold on TDs due to variance, not Lamb's presence.

Hayden expresses high confidence in Wilson's Week 3 matchup environment, stating this is 'probably the most confident I've been in, uh, for Garrett Wilson going into a week, uh, ever like environment wise, just everything.' The Jets are 6.5-point underdogs, which should force sustained passing game script despite their ability to run the ball.

Wide receiver 10 against Detroit Lions; Aaron Glenn (head coach) used to be Lions DC; Detroit fourth in league in man coverage rate at 30%; Garrett Wilson targeted 44% of time against man coverage this season (incredible given he hasn't been targeted that much overall); Mason Taylor (starting tight end) not playing; Omar Cooper (first round pick) on injured reserve; Adonai Mitchell dealing with finger injury; if Mitchell out, Lions forced to drop back more and play more man coverage, benefiting Wilson; Lions projected for 21 points; Hayden would buy low on Wilson as positive regression candidate; Gino Smith functional; this is best time for Wilson to go crazy; Detroit allowed league-high 5 touchdowns when blitzing in two games; Gino 14 of 19 against blitz; if Lions forced to blitz, creates pathway for Jets to be competitive; Hayden most confident in Wilson going into week ever environment-wise.

Wide receiver 8 for Hayden, wide receiver 11 in consensus—ahead of market; 38% target share, only trailing Jackson Smith-Njigba; 140 air yards per game, only trailing Chris Alave; production lights out, tape excellent, clearly most manufactured player in offense; Patriots defense can stop run with two incredible defensive tackles and resources in box; Christian Gonzalez playing against Brian Thomas; rest of secondary not very weak; difficult matchup for everybody but not specifically difficult for Washington; Saints projected for seventh most points; slot work critical—avoided Denzel Ward in Week 1 and Patrick Surtain in Week 2; Christian Gonzalez only in slot 6 times through two weeks (34 snaps total last year); Rams run tons of two tight end sets, advantageous for Washington; gets big crossers over middle in three wide receiver sets.

Wide receiver 7 against Buccaneers; Buccaneers defense not convincing; Jacob Parrish (cornerback 2) on injury report; Ruben Baines on injury report; Jose Trotter (linebacker) on injury report; other off-ball linebacker horrific; unclear running back situation with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason on IR; Buccaneers may abandon run game and throw to Jefferson; wide receiver 3 in air yards and team target share; Vikings number 32 in neutral pass rate through two weeks (with Carson Wentz, rainy conditions); typically top five; Buccaneers projected for 22 points on road; if Aaron Jones out, helps Jefferson further.

Played more 11 personnel snaps in Week 2 than entire rookie season; Rams running even heavier personnel looks and 13 personnel; if Puka out, Ferguson is second best pass catcher on field in those situations; not getting 20+ yard targets anymore but getting slant routes and run-after-catch; 13 expected points at tight end last week; 30% targets on team; projected 23-30 points depending on matchup; will walk to top five tight end finish as long as Puka out; Hayden emphasizes prioritizing Ferguson on waivers; viable flex option over wide receiver 34.

Hayden very nervous about Puka's groin/hip injury; missed camp with SOA (hip, groin), looked good in Week 1 but didn't get injured on field—trainers didn't have to attend to him, suggesting lingering issue; Sean McVay said he's not progressing in rehabilitation, which is concerning; Rams haven't targeted exact body part, listing both groin and hip; Hayden doesn't like soreness designation and hopes it's not sports hernia; not on injured reserve but may be out multiple weeks; McVay notoriously too optimistic with injuries; Hayden compares concern level to Christian McCaffrey's training camp issue from couple seasons ago.

Staying in S tier despite Ravens matchup; Ravens defense has Nate Wiggins on left, Marlon Humphrey on right, Kyle Hamilton blitzing from nickel and not always covering slot; Lamb playing less slot than previously; Ravens not doing shutdown coverage on number one receiver; Dak Prescott and Lamb excel on in-breaking routes over middle; Cowboys projected for sixth most points; game is exciting matchup between three defensive backs (Wiggins, Humphrey, Hamilton) versus three pass catchers (Lamb, Pickens, Flournoy/Ferguson).

Hayden prioritized Alave over Puka Nakua in death league; 169 air yards per game, 29 more than wide receiver two (Parker Washington); wide receiver four in expected points; Saints run neutral pace offense with 50 dropbacks per game (number one), play in dome, face weak division secondaries; only nitpick is recent left tackle loss but may lead to more downfield shots; Raiders haven't been tested yet; Saints projected for 11th most points.

Steelers defense is number two in defensive DVOA and EPA but faced weak passing games (Falcons, Patriots) in first two weeks; Steelers front seven is elite but Joey Porter limited in practice from holdout and may be rusty; Chase has averaged 97 yards per game against Steelers since 2022; against two-high looks (53% of Steelers coverage), Chase had 37% target share last season with 3.7 yards per route run, drastically better than T. Higgins in same coverage.