Underdog Fantasy Football Show artwork

14 Ridiculous Fantasy Predictions We Aren't Responsible For

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 19 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 27, 2026
Published
Thu, August 27, 2026
26
Player insights
23
Players mentioned
Topics
Carnell TateColston LovelandD'Andre SwiftBo NixJalen HurtsJayden DanielsJaylen WaddleJeremiyah LoveJordan AddisonKenneth Walker IIIKhalil HerbertKyler MurrayLadd McConkeyLuther Burden
Player analysis

Player insights

26

Bo Nix

PositiveProjection22:25

Bo Nix is projected as a top-10 quarterback. He has shown efficiency in his first two seasons despite poor supporting casts and now benefits from the NFL's number one offensive line and an improved receiving corps. The Broncos' offense is expected to be a top-five scoring unit.

Insight page

Carnell Tate

NegativeProjection19:41

Jeremiah Love ranks Tate highly due to his draft capital and potential, but notes concerns regarding his low YAC per reception. While he is a talented route runner, Love suggests he requires a more functional offense to succeed compared to players like Concepcion.

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NegativeBust28:36

Carnell Tate is overvalued at his 7th-round ADP compared to Casey Concepcion. Tate is projected to play primarily on the outside against number-one corners in an offense that is viewed with skepticism following preseason performance.

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Colston Loveland

PositiveProjection52:18

Jeremiah Love projects Colston Loveland to finish as the TE1, potentially outscoring Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. Love cites Loveland's high efficiency as a rookie, his superior route running compared to McBride, and his blocking ability which allows for more advantageous matchups against linebackers.

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PositiveValue58:05

Jeremiah Love is aggressively overexposed to Colton Loveland, noting that he ranks him back-to-back with Trey McBride; he prefers drafting Loveland in later rounds rather than spending high capital on McBride.

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D'Andre Swift

NegativeUsage38:03

Jeremiah Love notes that while he was previously critical of D'Andre Swift, the player's usage in a zone-heavy scheme last year maximized his strengths as a pass-catcher and outside runner, while using other backs for gap-heavy, between-the-tackle work.

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PositiveValue39:56

Jeremiah Love argues that Deandre Swift is undervalued at his mid-to-late fourth-round ADP, noting he led the NFL in rush yards over expectation last year and outperformed Khalil Herbert in nearly every advanced metric, including explosive run rate and target share. Love projects Swift as a top-12 running back and the highest-scoring player in the 'dead zone' tier.

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Jalen Hurts

PositiveValue68:23

Jacob Sanderson predicts Jalen Hurts will be the highest advanced-rate quarterback this season, citing his weight loss as a signal for increased rushing volume and a potential return to elite fantasy production; he views Hurts as a value in the 6th-9th round range.

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Jayden Daniels

NegativeProjection71:37

Jacob Sanderson and Sam Sherman express concern regarding Jaden Daniels' supporting infrastructure, specifically the offensive line and lack of established wide receivers, leading them to prefer Jalen Hurts for his more stable situation.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveProjection18:26

Jalen Waddle is a top-10 wide receiver candidate who should be drafted in the third round. He is expected to be the centerpiece of Sean Payton's offense, serving as the primary move piece while absorbing significant screen volume. The move from Tua Tagovailoa to Bo Nix is viewed as a major upgrade for Waddle's fantasy ceiling.

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Jeremiyah Love

PositiveValue0:24

Jeremiah Love should be drafted ahead of Ashton Gentry; Love has a 10-day recovery advantage from his ankle sprain and possesses superior explosive playability and receiving metrics compared to Gentry. Love is a dynamic weapon who can better overcome a poor offensive environment.

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Jordan Addison

PositiveValue30:27

Jordan Addison is highlighted as a 'forgotten man' and a cheap stack option with Kyler Murray. Despite taking a hit in full PPR, he has proven production and is priced as the WR22, with potential to outperform that ranking.

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveValue24:16

Jeremiah Love argues the Chiefs will shift to a run-heavy approach in 2026, making Kenneth Walker a primary target at the 1-2 turn. Walker is viewed as the key to creating explosive plays and forcing defenses to respect the run, which could open up the passing game.

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Khalil Herbert

NegativeRole38:25

Jeremiah Love characterizes Khalil Herbert as a limited prospect who was significantly outperformed by Deandre Swift in efficiency metrics last season. Love suggests that Swift's superior performance in rush yards over expectation and explosive run rate makes him the clear lead back, while Herbert's role is likely to remain secondary.

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Kyler Murray

PositiveProjection28:44

The panel is high on Kyler Murray as a top-10 fantasy quarterback, citing his improved supporting cast (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison), a solid offensive line, and his full recovery from a leg injury. They believe he is being undervalued and is a prime target for fantasy managers.

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Ladd McConkey

NegativeBust59:48

Jacob Sanderson is significantly below ADP on Lad McConkey, noting that his efficiency metrics declined as his route volume increased last year; he fears McConkey could lose snaps to Trey Harris in a rotational offense.

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Luther Burden

PositiveUsage49:55

Jeremiah Love views Luther Burden as the most dynamic playmaker on the Bears, noting that if he had to choose one player to get the ball in space for explosive gains, he would choose Burden every time. Love acknowledges the crowded target environment but believes Burden's role in the manufactured touch game is elite.

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Makai Lemon

PositiveBreakout19:27

Jeremiah Love ranks Lemon in the same tier as Carnell Tate and Casey Concepcion, noting that while draft capital might suggest otherwise, he is a high-upside prospect. In deeper leagues, he is a strong target, though in managed leagues with short benches, he may be a waiver wire add after the first few weeks.

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Malik Willis

PositiveSleeper32:30

Malik Willis is identified as an undervalued 'Konami code' quarterback with a high rushing floor. Despite concerns about his passing ability and receiving corps, his rushing production provides a QB1 ceiling, making him a viable late-round target in managed leagues.

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Matthew Golden

PositiveBreakout7:25

Matthew Golden is poised to be the highest-scoring Green Bay pass catcher. Despite a small rookie sample, he posted a 1.53 yards per route run, outperforming peers like George Pickens and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With Romeo Dobbs and Dontavian Wicks gone, Golden is the primary candidate to operate as the all-around WR1 in an offense potentially shifting to a faster pace.

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Quentin Johnston

NegativeBust59:48

Jacob Sanderson is significantly below ADP on Quentin Johnston, citing obvious flaws in his game and the potential for a wide receiver rotation that limits his total route participation.

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Rashee Rice

NegativeBust26:02

Jeremiah Love warns that Rashee Rice carries catastrophic downside risk, especially in half-PPR formats. He cites concerns over Rice's inefficiency (7.4 yards per target in 2025), poor performance against man coverage, and recent health/legal issues as reasons to fade him.

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Rome Odunze

PositiveBreakout44:36

Jeremiah Love predicts Rome Odunze will finish as a top-20 wide receiver, highlighting his strong usage early last season (WR18 in per-game usage) before a foot injury derailed his campaign. Love notes that Odunze is not just a static X-receiver and has the athletic profile to take a significant step forward in his second year.

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Tre Harris

PositiveBreakout59:10

Jacob Sanderson believes Trey Harris has a 10% chance to emerge as the Chargers' WR1, citing his impressive college yards per route run and strong camp reviews; he views Harris as a high-upside best ball target who could benefit from the team's shift toward 11 personnel and reduced tight end target competition.

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Trey McBride

NegativeValue56:50

Jeremiah Love ranks Trey McBride and Colston Loveland back-to-back, acknowledging McBride's established production as a top-tier tight end while arguing that Loveland's route-running profile and team context give him a path to equal or exceed that output.

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Wan'Dale Robinson

PositiveUsage22:16

The panel notes that preseason usage suggests the Giants are actively trying to make Wan'Dale Robinson a focal point of the offense, potentially making him a better full PPR play than Carnell Tate.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

969
0:00Bold Predictions, Truth Serum. I think we kind of believe these takes fully, but we're going to get bold here.
0:06This is going away from the Yahoo consensus, away from the consensus out there.
0:10Some new takes that I haven't exactly delivered. I'm bringing on Sam Sherman and Jacob Sanderson.
0:14Both of these guys have been waiver wire kings for us on the program.
0:18You guys know them. You guys love them. I think we'll just skip this one squared away right now.
0:24Sam Sherman, give me your first bold take. Yeah, I'm going to go with Jeremiah Love should just be straight up drafted ahead of Ashton Gentry.
0:31And I think this one comes down to a couple different reasons.
0:35I think one, the timing of the injury for both of these guys is kind of important.
0:40You know, both of them suffering ankle sprains to some degree.
0:43Love's was in August 13th and Gentty's was almost two weeks later around August 23rd.
0:47So he does have that extra 10 days or so to recover from that ankle sprain.
0:52So that's one point. I think two, I am just a little skeptical of the talent of Gentty.
0:57And I think he's an awesome player. I think he's going to be a workhorse running back in the NFL for a long time.
1:04But is he the talent that can overcome iters' offense environment as a player that's getting drafted at the one-two turn?
1:10I'm just not sure about that. His advanced metrics last year weren't overly impressive to me.
1:15His receiving metrics were also not that impressive, less than one yard per route run this past season.
1:20And I think I would just rather re-roll the talent bet on someone like Jeremiah Love, who was drafted third overall.
1:26Again, Gentty was drafted a little bit later than that.
1:29And I just see Love's explosive playability, him being a true dynamic weapon in the passing game in a way that I
1:35didn't quite see with Gentty last year. So if I'm betting on one of these two guys to overcome a really bad
1:42offensive environment, I don't think either of us, you know, think that the Raiders or Cardinals are going to be particularly impressive this year.
1:49I'm betting on the guy that I think has more explosibility, I think is a better receiving back.
1:54And that's why I think Jeremiah Love, who's going, I think in like the 30s in a lot of drafts now, I
2:00think he should be straight up going ahead of Ashton Gentty, who's closer to the one-two turn.
2:05Yeah, I really love this take. I'm trying to make Jeremiah Love maybe like my most drafted player as he's kind of
2:11getting to the 30s and 40s, depending on the format.
2:14I think that's like an automatic click. I think he is better than Ashton Gentty straight up.
2:19So, Jacob, I know that you like Gentty in general.
2:22Obviously, we're recalibrating with the ankle sprain here. How good does he actually have to be for him to kind of pay
2:29off like a mid-round two price tag at this point?
2:31Like how much does the talent like actually matter?
2:34Or do you think he's just like one of the best running backs in the NFL?
2:39Well, I find myself very frustrated by how this is all gone.
2:42I disagree with I think both of you guys on the talent profile pretty meaningfully.
2:46I had him as my eighth overall player before the injury.
2:50But what I guess I disagree with the rest of the market on is whether ankle sprains matter because I've moved him down a lot after that.
2:57I have him now, I think, as my like 23rd ranked overall player right now following the ankle injury.
3:03Maybe that seems too extreme. But to me, it's the first two rounds are filled with a lot of really good players.
3:09And so even a guy that I had as a clear first round bet, if you're telling me he's likely missing time
3:16in the early season and then may need time to ramp up back after that, maybe leaves a window open for a
3:22backup to emerge from like a guy was projecting to be a 20% of snaps player to a 35% of snaps player
3:28if he impresses against what I think is the worst team in the league in week one, the Miami Dolphins.
3:34That's a meaningful shift to his outlook. So I don't know.
3:37It's kind of like the worst of all counts for me.
3:40You know, Ashton Gentry gets hurt. So all the teams I'd already drafted him on are worse now.
3:46And I feel like I'm not going to draft him again for the rest of the summer.
3:51So I'm happy for like the couple teams that I got in the five hours where everybody was out for the season.
3:57Those are the only Ashton Jenty teams I'm happy with now in my whole portfolio.
4:01Yeah. So I have them 24th and 25th back to back.
4:04I got Breeze Hall kind of right there as well.
4:07I kind of have those guys with Omari and Hampton like their own tier.
4:11I kind of like you that was like a boom bust tier of running backs where like Derek Henry Chase, we kind of know what we're getting.
4:19And then this next tier, I think one or two of those guys are going to pop off.
4:24Maybe two of the guys don't totally bust like even Ashton Jenty.
4:28Like if he had the same season as last year and he's he's probably gonna be better than that at the two,
4:34three turns, like not even that big of a deal.
4:37All right, Jacob. All right. This is a guy that I think we're all pretty big on this year.
4:43So I'll start it off by reaching consensus. Mr.
4:45Matthew Golden. I want to level set by stating that I dislike this prospect more than most and most also dislike this prospect.
4:52So it's not like this is a guy I'm truthering for.
4:55This was a guy I wrote up very dismissively as a rookie prospect.
4:59He certainly didn't do anything as a rookie that made me feel burnt by that or come off that view significantly.
5:05But I also don't feel like he did anything to like absolutely confirm that view.
5:09I kind of would mark his rookie season as incomplete.
5:12He ends up coming in at just under 1.5 yards per route run on a very small sample of routes, which also
5:18included some really missed deep attempts that could have drastically altered his sample and the trajectory of his season.
5:24When you consider how few routes he actually ran and none of those were his fault.
5:29This wasn't a Xavier worthy situation of not knowing where to get his feet in on the sideline.
5:34This was Jordan Love, one of the best deep ball throwers in the league, like just kind of missing him on a couple of small plays.
5:41And mostly this take is based off of I think the market just being irrational on this player.
5:46So to throw out some counter examples, Ricky Pearsall was also a pretty questionable round one pick analytically.
5:52I would say a lower upside one. He was a significantly older player, actually.
5:56And then he comes off of a season that like Golden's, I would say it was like an incomplete rookie season or
6:02kind of a Rorschach test rookie season. And the offseason goes really well for him going into year two.
6:08They don't have Brandon Ayuk as part of the plans.
6:10Jawan Jennings misses time in camp. Pearsall's drawing great reviews.
6:13Everyone gets really excited about the investment and opportunity.
6:16Steams all the way up to like the 5-6 turn towards the end of the year, especially in some of the high stakes stuff.
6:23Just throw out another guy, your boy, the Strib Club.
6:26I mean, also a prospect that you guys liked him more than me.
6:30But I mean, you'd have to admit, really questionable on some analytical markers.
6:33And, you know, he's having obviously a fantastic summer.
6:36Everything around him is going great with injuries to teammates.
6:39And the market is like, okay, you know, screw the prospect question marks.
6:43We're all in on this investment and opportunity. It's maybe getting a little out of hand for me, but I totally understand it.
6:49I mean, I am ranked above ADP right now in like at least home league sites.
6:54But apparently none of this applies to Matthew Golden.
6:56I just don't really understand why people are so stubborn on this profile.
7:00They've completely cleared the decks for him. Dobbs is one thing.
7:03They had no need to get rid of Dontavian Wicks at all.
7:07They got barely anything back for him. He was still on a rookie contract.
7:11It seems like they got rid of him just for the express purpose of not having to rotate wide receivers and being
7:17able to play these main three guys. Matthew Golden is the player that to me has the largest overlap and potential role with Romeo Dobbs.
7:24He's the most significant portion of this offense exiting.
7:27Dobbs last year ran 52% of his routes on digs, curls, and outs.
7:31He operated in the intermediate areas of the field.
7:33Christian Watson, talented deep threat player, like fun per route profile.
7:37He's never translated that into being an all-around receiver.
7:39You look at his yards per route run stuff, it's really fun.
7:43You look at any of Matt Harmon's charting. You look at the ESPN Open score charting.
7:47It's never shown him to be this all-around receiver that I think can operate effectively as a wide receiver one at all depths.
7:54He's also never run 300 routes before in his career.
7:57Tucker Craft, also really talented player. Limited player. He has an 8-0 under 5 last year, even in his breakout season.
8:03And of course, Jaden Reed, I think, is limited in terms of the number of routes that he runs.
8:08So, who do I think has the actual best chance to step in to be the number one receiver?
8:14Like the all-around depths wide receiver on this team that runs every route at every area of the field?
8:19I think it's Matthew Golden. I think the Packers want it to be Matthew Golden.
8:24And the only people who I don't think want it to be Matthew Golden are fantasy managers.
8:29So, I guess I didn't spell out my actual bold take, which is bad podcasting by me.
8:34My bold take is Matthew Golden will be the highest scoring Green Bay pass catcher this season.
8:38And I think should be drafted much closer to being like it.
8:42Yeah, there's a point in drafts, like round seven, where it's like Metcalf, Cardinal Tate, Brian Thomas, you know, like Alec Pierce, Chris Godwin.
8:49And I would just take Matthew Golden there. I'd never have to because he's like completely buried.
8:54I would say the only thing I'm going to add to this is the Packers also might pass the ball more in general.
9:00It's been one of the slowest paced offenses in this offseason.
9:04This offseason, they've talked about going up tempo. And in that first preseason game, they were getting out of the huddle, going
9:10right to the line of scrimmage and snapping the ball directly.
9:13I think, you know, they're just testing things out.
9:16But like if that's going to be one of the motivations for this upcoming season, like we can see a team that's
9:22like typically what, like 26 and pass attempts every single season, go all the way up closer to like league average.
9:28And that's where all these guys can get homes.
9:31Matthew Golden, one of my top picks as well.
9:33Sam, I know you're on him. Is there any other reasons why?
9:37Yeah, I think just like building on Jacob's point of I think people treat his rookie season like it was complete disaster.
9:43Looking at PFF data, you know, including the playoff game, he was at 1.53 yards for route run in his rookie season.
9:50That was better than guys like George Gens, Smith and Jigba, Cortland Sutton, Nico Collins.
9:54You can go on and on like 1.5 yards for route run for rookie is like not a bad season at all.
10:00All people dock him is because it's bad to not earn that many routes as a rookie receiver.
10:05I totally get that. But I think there's valid excuses.
10:08Like it's not like he wasn't earning routes against nobodies.
10:11Like the guys they that left in free agency, Romeo Dobbs signed a huge contract with the Patriots.
10:16He's a starter for a team that's competing for a Super Bowl.
10:20Dontavian Wicks got traded for the Eagles. He's also a day one starter for a team that's competing for a Super Bowl.
10:26These are like two legit players that were in front of him and blocking him.
10:31And I don't think we should be docking him that much because he couldn't beat out some of those guys during his rookie season.
10:37So, yeah, I'm totally on board with with both of you guys here.
10:41Golden is a huge priority target for me. Yeah, also a really young player, pretty inexperienced player, even like transferring in that last season.
10:48Like he wasn't a full time player that entire season, which you can say is like that's why he's not going to be good in the NFL.
10:56But like if that was one of the reasons why he wasn't getting on the field as much, I think that is a valid reason.
11:03All right. My first one, we go up the board here.
11:06Jalen Waddle is going to be a top 10 wide receiver.
11:10I've been drafting him plenty in the fourth round.
11:12I think that he should be going in the third round right next to Devante Smith.
11:17Now that he's fully back at practice, he's been beating Pat Sertan down the field.
11:21He's been getting open on these crossing routes. And it's just very obvious that Sean Payton is going to make him a centerpiece.
11:28He was already the wide receiver 12 in 2022.
11:30He nearly hit that mark as a rookie when he was the wide receiver 18.
11:35Sean Payton has 11 seasons as a top five offense and pass attempts.
11:38He's finished top half of the league in 14 of 21 seasons.
11:42On top of that, both seasons with Bo Nix, this has been a pass first team.
11:47I don't think people understand that necessarily. Fourth in neutral pass rate, eighth in neutral pace, 15th in points per game.
11:53The only thing we're waiting for is Bo Nix to take that next step.
11:57And I think a lot of people discount that because they didn't like him as a prospect, I guess.
12:02But we're talking about a year three player who's had some success.
12:06And then with Jalen Waddell, he's just going to eat up so much of that screen volume over the last two seasons.
12:12Bo Nix, Sean Payton, they've been number one in screens.
12:15And they do throw some screens to the running backs.
12:18But it's actually a lot of them are actually to the wide receivers.
12:22Like both Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin have averaged over a target per game in the screen game over the last two seasons, which is absurd.
12:29I think all that stuff is going to go to Jalen Waddell.
12:32Cortland Sutton is going to get the X receiver stuff.
12:35Jalen Waddell is going to be the move piece.
12:38He's done this before. This is going to be an awesome offense.
12:41And I just think that we're discounting Jalen Waddell because the injury concerns.
12:45And guess what? A lot of the players in round three are going to get injured.
12:50But as long as he stays healthy, I think he's going to go all the way to the moon.
12:55I think, Jacob, you have something similar to this one.
12:58You want to piggyback? Yeah, I do. So my take was the Broncos will be a top five NFL scoring offense and
13:05will have at least three fantasy smashes. I'm huge on the Broncos this year.
13:09They would be my Super Bowl pick right now.
13:11The market does not agree. They have an over under win total of nine and a half after just winning 14 games.
13:18They're not even projected as a top 15 scoring offense.
13:20So the top five is a pretty bold call.
13:23You mentioned a lot of the Waddell enthusiasm. I completely share it.
13:27I mean, I kind of zoom out on that a little bit more systemically.
13:31So this team, first of all, if you look at Brandon Thorne's ratings, fantasy points ratings, PFS ratings, almost anyone's ratings that you care about.
13:38The Broncos have the number one offensive line in the NFL.
13:41That's a fantastic start. Bo Nix, you mentioned, finished 16th and 17th at EPA per drop back over his first two years.
13:47That's a pretty good start to a career for a rookie.
13:51It's especially impressive to me when this is a guy who was not, like you said, operating on some 480 drop back gimmicky play action based offense.
13:58He had to drop back and pass a lot.
14:01He had led the entire NFL in pass attempts last season.
14:04And I think that he's had an underratedly bad cast of characters to throw to.
14:08Yes. I mean, no disrespect to Troy Franklin. I think that the degree of addition by subtraction here is remarkably understated.
14:15Um, these, this is the entire list of players who had at least 50 targets and eight out of at least 12
14:21and under seven yards per target last season. We know yards per target is correlated to eight up.
14:26So if you're earning a bunch of downfield targets and you're not efficiently adding yards per target, that's a serious problem.
14:32Troy Franklin's on this list alongside Adonai Mitchell and injured Mike Evans, Darnell Mooney, Alec A.O.
14:37Manor, Van Jefferson, Keon Coleman, and Jerry Judy. That is like, well, first of all, it's a concerning sign if you're drafting Mike Evans this year.
14:44But also it's like all of the other worst receivers in the NFL that everyone agrees is terrible.
14:49He had 102 targets last year. He ran like, um, I believe he was top 20 in the NFL in total routes run.
14:56And I think a big reason for that was they were trying to move away from Cortland Sutton as the one because he's just not that dynamic.
15:04They were trying to find an answer on Troy Franklin.
15:07He can't play the ball at all. He wasn't the answer.
15:10Dylan Waddle can be the answer. They go from, in my opinion, like one of the most detrimental players.
15:15If you combine the size of his role and the stakes of the team to now one of the most important upgrades
15:22to that position across the entire NFL in Dylan Waddle.
15:25I agree. I think he's going to be a top 10 receiver.
15:28I think Bo Nix is going to be a top 10 quarterback, which shouldn't be bold because he has been a top
15:3510 quarterback each of his first two seasons with far worse weapons.
15:38And then you bring in the running back group.
15:41I'm less confident about who exactly in the running back room is going to be a key part of the fantasy season.
15:47I just think this is going to be a train that you're going to want as many pieces of as possible.
15:53And so I'm pretty open minded to any of Dobbins, Harvey or Coleman at their respective ADPs, depending on your team situation.
15:59But definitely grab Waddle, stack them up with Nix late, stick a Broncos running back on your bench.
16:05And I think you're going to profit. Dan, do you have anything to add?
16:09And if not, you can go to your next.
16:11Yeah. All I'd say, and I agree with everything you guys said, I think specifically on the Waddle point, I would just
16:18say, I mean, to use Jacob's phrasing. I mean, no disrespect to, you know, parentheses, I do mean disrespect to Tua, but
16:24I think that it's still underrated how bad Tua was last year.
16:27And Jalen Waddle was dealing with that. I think that is a big excuse for why he didn't smash in a situation
16:34where many people, I think part of the, you know, concern for Waddle is like, well, he had the wide receiver one
16:40last year in Miami and didn't, you know, cross for my fantasy team.
16:44And man, Tua just lost a starting quarterback competition to nobody.
16:47I mean, Penix was, Penix was injured the entire off season and he, he lost it competing against literally, literally no one.
16:53So Ryan, maybe. Exactly. Yeah. So I think we could have a bit of an upgrade from Mr.
16:59Tagovolo to Bo Nix for, for Waddle. Yeah, that's a, that's a very, very fair point.
17:03All right, Sam, what's your next day? I'll stick with exciting rookies that I'm targeting this year.
17:08I think Casey Concepcion should be the highest drafted rookie wide receiver.
17:12And I think he'd be going ahead of Carnell Tate looking at Yahoo ADP.
17:16That is a bold take versus consensus. I think Concepcion is going in the 11th round and Carnell Tate is going in the seventh round.
17:23I think the biggest pushback to this point immediately would be looking at the NFL draft order and saying, Hey, Sam, did
17:29you see Carnell Tate went fourth overall and Concepcion went 24th overall?
17:33And I totally understand that. I am firmly a believer in draft capital matters.
17:37I trust NFL teams to evaluate players generally more than guys with spreadsheets.
17:41But I do think you have to consider the archetype of player that these two guys are.
17:45I think Carnell Tate in Tennessee, he's going to be lined up on the outside for a huge number of snaps.
17:52They have Wondell Robinson there. In college, per Matt Harmon's charting, Carnell Tate was lined up on the outside for 85% snaps.
17:58So that means he's going to be on the outside against number one corners, having to win in one-on-one situations with Cam Ward as his quarterback.
18:05And after what I've seen, I know we shouldn't overreact too much to the preseason, but after what I've seen in the
18:12preseason, I am very bearish on this Brian Dable, Cam Ward offense in year two.
18:16And for Concepcion, you could say, hey, he's on the Browns.
18:19Are things going to be much better at quarterback?
18:22I would say probably not. But the thing about Concepcion is he's much better in terms of a guy that you can get schemed touches to.
18:29He had 70 rush attempts in college, 25 kick returns, and was very effective in both of those facets.
18:35He's a guy you can get the ball to in jet sweeps, screens, carries.
18:39He's a package of a handful of design touches per game.
18:42So he can be much more of that sort of PPR scam in a way that actually still pays off, even in
18:48an offense that, you know, let's be honest. The Browns are going to be bottom five in scoring this year.
18:54I'm conceding that. But I do think that sort of volume could be there for Concepcion.
18:59So I think, like, zooming all the way out when we're talking about rookie wide receivers and, like, you're kind of investing
19:05in this, like, mystery box of talent. I want to be thinking about, you know, how can I do it more cheaply?
19:12And how can I find a player that can succeed despite being in a bad environment?
19:16And I just think Concepcion checks way more of those boxes than Tate does.
19:20And I would, in a managed league with all my money on the line, I would be betting on Concepcion over Carnell Tate this season.
19:27I got Lemon, Concepcion, and Tate back to back to back in my overall rankings.
19:32And this is what I needed to move Casey Concepcion to the top of it.
19:36First of all, Sam, the only thing that matters to the NFL draft is my top 100.
19:41And I had Carnell Tate ninth and Casey Concepcion 14th in the same tier.
19:45So I don't think even though the draft capital would suggest that they're tiers away, I would not have said that before the draft.
19:52And I'd say Makai Lemon also right in that tier as well.
19:55And yeah, that's for all the reasons that you talked about.
19:59Casey Concepcion is an electric athlete. I think that he can do like a Jalen Waddell type of impression underneath and work down the field.
20:06He's way tougher and denser than a lot of the guys he gets comped to, which I really like about him.
20:12And then the fact that even in the preseason, they were getting him into two wide receiver sets.
20:17So I'm not worried about like the Jaden Reed, Josh Downs of it all here.
20:22So Jacob, how would you order Carnell Tate, Concepcion, Lemon in like redraft?
20:25And do you think that they're all kind of like in the same tier right now?
20:30Yeah, in my heart, which is maybe what my rankings should say, I would agree with what you guys are saying is
20:36that I think it should be Casey one. I know I think that because Sam stole my take from me during pre-show discussions.
20:43But I think that everything you guys said is fantastic.
20:46I'll just add that Carnell Tate had the second lowest yards after the catch per reception among all round one receivers since 2016.
20:52The only one lower is Chris Alave. That stat does tend to translate.
20:56Obviously, Alave, really good player, but I don't think anyone's commending his yak skills.
21:00Casey Concepcion, really strong yak profile, like Sam mentioned, got carries.
21:03He was really used effectively on punt returns. He's an easy button player, which can thrive in a terrible offense.
21:09Carnell Tate, I think, really needed a functional offense.
21:12So I do have Tate ranked ahead because I guess I'm just kind of an ADP-based loser.
21:17But putting that aside today and talking about what I believe in my heart of hearts, probably Casey one.
21:22And then I guess I would go Tate. And I don't know, the Lemon stuff.
21:27If you're in a deeper bench, higher stakes league, I get the case for Lemon for sure.
21:31Best ball where you're just committing to him for the entire season.
21:35In a managed home league with five bench spots, I feel pretty confident that if you let a less in the weeds
21:41to prospects type league mate draft McKay Lemon, they will drop them and that you will get them on the waiver wire in week three or four anyway.
21:49So I would go with the guy who's going to run all the routes in the first week of the season.
21:55Yeah, I didn't pick McKay Lemon as one, but I have another Eagles related one in a minute.
22:01And the second Dontavian Wicks drops that pass in week one and McKay Lemon's in two wide receiver sets in the next
22:07week, we're gonna be like, what did we just do here?
22:10So I think that's a good one. And then also, I almost came to the table with Wondell Robinson's just going to outscore Carnell Tate.
22:17Maybe that's a full PPR take, but man, the preseason stuff really looks like they're trying to make Wondell Robinson a thing.
22:24Obviously, the Brian Dable. It's the only throws that Cam Ward was able to complete were five yard stick routes.
22:30But he couldn't even, in the preseason, those were so bad too.
22:33I mean, he was like, that's the only thing you can do.
22:36I mean, every time they try, they tried to run plays through Tate.
22:40They had that like inside slot fade for him.
22:43They had that big crosser for him. He didn't get, well, he actually ran a nice route on the inside fade.
22:49He got no separation on the crosser. Both of those throws were pretty brutal from Ward.
22:54So yeah, it's tough. Yeah. Okay. This is going to be an interesting class.
22:58I think one of these guys is really going to hit.
23:01I think I'm going to be rolling with Casey Concepcion and full PPR especially.
23:05All right, Jacob, back to you. All right. This is one that I've been arguing about with all of my various co-hosts all summer.
23:12I've found no allies on this, but I'm going to cook here for a couple of minutes, which is that I think
23:18the Chiefs are going to have a negative pass rate over expectation in 2026.
23:22To emphasize how kind of crazy this would be and why I've gotten so much opposition, the Chiefs have been top two
23:28in PROE every single year of the Patrick Mahomes era.
23:31Even last year, they were 3.9% above in PROE.
23:34All that being said, to make this sound a little bit less crazy, last year, the Jaguars were barely above zero.
23:40They were the sixth highest. So if the Chiefs came in right around the zero mark, they would still probably be one
23:46of the eight pass happiest teams in the NFL.
23:49The way that the NFL is trending, it's not that zero equals 16 anymore.
23:53You'll probably be top 10 with the PROE of zero.
23:56They have had some of the worst running backs, not some of them, by an absolute mile, had the worst running backs
24:02in the NFL during the Patrick Mahomes era. They lost Tareem Hunt for reasons halfway through Patrick Mahomes' season.
24:08And since then, they've been rolling out Damian Williams, Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, Le'Veon Bell, Daryl Williams, Isaiah Pacheco, Jarek McKinnon, Wash and reformed Kareem Hunt, and then Samaj Pirine.
24:16All of those individuals have been getting meaningful snaps.
24:18Sam's boy, Carson Steele. Don't want to leave him out.
24:21So to me, it's like, yeah, of course they were passing the ball a ton when you have one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.
24:29And you have that poo-poo platter of running backs as an alternative.
24:32Also, for a lot of those years, they had Tyree Kill.
24:36They had a good version of Travis Kelsey. And even after those guys left, Patrick Mahomes was able to kind of, or
24:42after Hill left and Kelsey started to decline, Mahomes was able to kind of get around that because he was so good.
24:48This year, Mahomes is going to be, I think, less mobile.
24:51He's clearly going to play, but I don't think that the ACL concerns are a 0% worry.
24:56Travis Kelsey, complete shell of his former self. And I think that we still vastly overestimate how good these receivers are based
25:03on their draft capital and based off of Rashi Rice's fantasy performance.
25:06If I was just to rank their pass catcher group in terms of pure real life skill, I think it's like 29th or 30th, maybe 31st.
25:14In particular, because their top two weapons are completely inept versus man coverage.
25:17And so if a team truly wants to game plan for this group, and they're going to go and pass, you know,
25:245-6% over expectation like they have during the Mahomes era, and you're getting this spread offense, teams will just sit on you
25:30and they'll press Rashi Rice, they'll press Xavier Worthy.
25:33You're not going to be able to get anything going.
25:36They finally have Kenneth Walker now on the team.
25:38That's the path to me to creating explosives where, first of all, you're going to get a ton of explosive runs from
25:45Kenneth Walker, but you're also going to actually have to force the team to defend the run.
25:49That's going to open up potentially the deep ball.
25:52That's how you get teams back into zone coverage that can actually allow these really limited receivers to potentially work off of that underneath.
25:59I just think with Eric the enemy coming over, he's been a high pass rate guy in the past too.
26:05Working under Ben Johnson, they were kind of a run operation that builds the passing game off of that.
26:10I hope for the chief's sake that this take is right because I don't think they're going to have a ton of
26:17offensive success if they continue this pass happy spread offense in 2026 with their personnel.
26:21The upshot of all of this is that it makes me extremely interested in drafting Ken Walker as much as humanly possible
26:27at the one-two turn, especially after my guy Ashton Jenti is no longer in the consideration set.
26:32Walker's become my biggest point of emphasis there. And then Rashi Rice, I do think tempting as he might be in full
26:39PPR, I think that the downside risk here is pretty catastrophic.
26:42He would be completely off my board in half PPR, redraft.
26:45And then in full PPR, I get it. I just think he has the potential to be a league losing pick probably
26:51a little bit more than he does a league winning pick.
26:55Yep. I don't think I've drafted Rashi Rice maybe more than like one set of like close to 200 drafts.
27:00And then I ranked Ken Walker 10th overall. I think this is a great take.
27:05Even last year, their neutral pass rate was 56%.
27:07I'll just look at that in 2022 is like 62%.
27:10Like there is, there's differences on where this offense is going.
27:13And I think that you bring Kenneth Walker in.
27:16Yeah. I hate to be boring and just do agree with you guys all the time, but Kenneth Walker's one of my highest drafted running backs.
27:23I think I have over 20% of them at the one, two turn.
27:27I've been clicking him over at Gentie. So that's kind of there.
27:31And yeah, I, I think I'm, I'm with you.
27:33I think they're going to shift to more of a run based approach this year.
27:38And like, let's be honest, like the, the Rasheed Rice targets, even, even last year.
27:42So like before this other knee surgery that he had right before he went to jail, he was at 7.4 yards per
27:48target in 2025, like any other wide receiver that's drafted in the top 30 of fantasy.
27:53Like that's a very inefficient yards per target. So if you get the, you know, more steady five yard carries with Kenneth
27:59Walker versus the 7.4 yards per target with Rasheed Rice.
28:02I mean, I'm not saying that's definitely going to carry over to next year, but it wasn't a particularly way efficient way
28:08to build off and the passing attack. And I think, yeah, the, the, some of the visuals you've gotten in Rasheed Rice
28:15in camp haven't been that promising either. So I'm with you guys on this take here.
28:19Yeah. Not a good sign of that. I might be able to run faster in a straight line than Rasheed Rice right now.
28:26I think the people do forget the second surgery happened right before the jail tweets.
28:30And we're like, oh, he's going to jail. It's like, well, the second surgery part is probably not a great sign either.
28:37Okay. So if we're not drafting Patrick Mahomes this year, I'll start with going with Kyler Murray is going to be a top 10 fantasy quarterback.
28:44And I can even argue that he can be a top eight one.
28:48If you just look at what Kurt Cousins did, Sam Darnold did, and then even like the Nick Mullins guys, those guys
28:54would have finished as top 10 quarterbacks this last season.
28:57And now there's like not that much of a difference between quarterback six and quarterback 16.
29:02That's kind of the point on why I've been drafting so much Kyler Murray.
29:06He's my highest drafted quarterback. Like most of my quarterbacks, like I draft, like, you know, around eight to 10% of, and
29:12then he's like the one guy that I'm actually taking a stand on.
29:16I think for Kyler, there's a couple of things.
29:19One, it's an awesome skill group that he's going to be throwing to obviously Justin Jefferson's the best receiver he's ever had.
29:25DeAndre Hopkins did have top 10 fantasy moments with Kyler Murray before.
29:29And then you have the offensive line, Derisaw and O'Neal.
29:31That's awesome for their left and right tackle. Donovan Jackson was a first rounder at left guard.
29:36Will Fries has been around forever. So the weak spot is the center, but you have, to me, four other offensive line
29:43in that when they're fully healthy, ready to go, those are above average players.
29:47Jordan Addison's kind of the forgotten man. He's been my second highest drafted wide receiver.
29:51I'm trying to target him because, you know, he's priced as the wide receiver 22.
29:55And in the first two seasons, when he didn't have JJ McCarthy, he finishes the wide receiver 22 and 23 and a half PPR points per game.
30:03Obviously he takes a hit in full PPR. He was running really pure, uh, in those two seasons on touchdowns.
30:09I'm not fully expecting that. Could he finish as the wide receiver 33 this year?
30:13Like I absolutely think that's on the table. I think it's a really cheap stack.
30:18I think this is always going to be a down the field passing offense.
30:22I think the KOC is a smart coach. He's going to get the most out of Kyler Murray.
30:27And I think we've kind of forget just how talented Kyler Murray is, especially now that he's fully healthy from that leg injury.
30:34So it's, it's the best cafeteria Kyler Murray's ever had.
30:36It's the best ownership he's ever had. It's the best offensive line receiver group that he's ever had dome environment.
30:42Uh, all those offenses in his division are going to be putting up crazy numbers.
30:47So Kyler Murray to Jordan Addison. That's how I went all the money this year.
30:51I like it. I think for me, like in, in best all, I have been like just on the margins, like spooked
30:57a little bit by the, of the Kyler Murray thing doesn't work.
31:01And he gets benched a stretch for, I don't even know if it's JJ McCarthy.
31:05This one, it sounds like Carson Wentz McCarthy's going to get traded or like in the next week.
31:10I mean, here's the thing with the wind stuff, right?
31:13It's like, if, if that's true and you draft Kyler, I mean, it'd be bad in best ball.
31:18It'd be kind of irrelevant and redraft like, Oh, whatever.
31:21Your last round quarterback got benched. Like you're fine.
31:24And when's this probably arguably just as good, if not better for Jefferson Madison.
31:28Yeah. But I also think you, you, you can't, you can't bench Kyler Murray for Carson Wentz this year.
31:33Like there's like no way like to me that would even happen.
31:37Like, you know what you have with Carson Wentz?
31:39Like the only reason, the only threat would be we have to see JJ McCarthy one more time.
31:45But the fact that he's already lost, uh, or he's losing, um, his, the second quarterback spot in, in, in camp tells
31:51me that he's going to get traded here in just a minute.
31:54And that's what I would do if I was a Vikings.
31:58Like, let's just get this kind of distraction headache away from us.
32:01And let's try to make Kyler Murray, uh, our version of Sam Darnold, but we're actually going to extend them after the season anyway.
32:08Yeah. I agree with that. And, and it's, it's nice for like, if you're, if you're one of the Kyler always gets
32:14hurt, bros, I guess like, Oh my God, am I ever relieved to have Wentz instead of JJ McCarthy in the mix?
32:21Yes, for sure. Okay. Uh, Sam, let's sneak back to you.
32:24Cool. I'm going to stick with the quarterback theme here and talk about another Konami code quarterback that I think is being
32:30undervalued Malik Willis, I think is going to finish as a QB one this year.
32:35He's currently being drafted in Yahoo leagues, at least as the quarterback 19.
32:38Uh, I just, I first wanted to start with like the incredible rushing, you know, floor and ceiling that Willis provides you in fantasy.
32:45This is a small sample, but it's, it's four, uh, you know, career starts the past four career starts before starts with
32:52the Packers, uh, the past couple of seasons, he went six for 41.
32:55Six for 73 and a touchdown 10 for 44, nine 60 and two touchdowns.
32:59So he's adding anywhere from four or five points.
33:02So that's a touchdown to 18, 20 points on the ground purely from rushing.
33:06And I think like this one honestly is like a little bit psychological where like the, the type of fantasy analyst who
33:12would be, uh, caping for Malik Willis has been emotionally scarred by the Justin Fields experience by the trades experience.
33:18Like these type of analysts are like scared of Willis.
33:21They're like, Oh, he's going to get bad. It's not going to work.
33:25Like I'm done with the, you know, quarterback who can't throw and he can only rush.
33:30So I think that's like really suppressing his ADP.
33:32And I'm going way back here for an historical example.
33:35Like I think in some people's heads, like Malik Willis is as bad of a passer as like Tim Tebow.
33:41Well, Tim Tebow, um, you know, way back in 2011 when he was the starter for the Broncos averaged 17 points per game.
33:47And that would have been equivalent to the quarterback 16 this year.
33:51I think Malik Willis is a better thrower than Tim Tebow.
33:54I don't think that's a hot take. Um, if you watched him this past couple of seasons, I think you have to
34:00at least acknowledge his ceiling is, is higher as a passer.
34:04So I'm going to just like bank the rushing floor and what if he's as good throwing the ball as he was,
34:10uh, the Packers the past couple of seasons. I also think like the receiving court, yeah, it's, it's terrible, but I do
34:16think having Devon A-chain there as a pass catcher is like a little bit underrated.
34:21He's an awesome weapon out of the backfield and is almost used as a slot receiver, uh, type type player in certain formations.
34:27The same, some of the same, um, offensive coaching staff that used A-chain there last year in Miami.
34:33So I don't think that's going away. So anyways, I, I totally get how it, it can fail.
34:38Willis, you know, doesn't have good wide receivers. He's a very small sample, um, you know, success as a quarterback, but I'm
34:44shooting for the ceiling with a Konami code rusher.
34:47And if it hits, he can like crush the guys that are going near him.
34:51And even the guys that are going ahead of him, Stafford golf, Jordan, love, et cetera.
34:56These guys don't have anything close to the rushing ceiling that Willis provides.
34:59So I'm taking a lot of stabs on him this year.
35:03Agree. I think that it's also fun because you can just throw a couple of darts, uh, and you know, 18th round to, to stack them up.
35:10Um, and then with the Justin Fields thing, there was like, we had very concrete evidence for years and years that Justin Fields was a bad quarterback.
35:18I'm not saying Malik Willis is going to be good, but at least you can make an argument that over the last
35:25three seasons, he's been the quarterback one in EPA per play quarterback one in completion percentage, overexpected quarterback 11 and success rate out of 79 qualifiers.
35:32It's on 159 plays, but at least there's like some evidence that like, maybe he could be good.
35:37Uh, and not, I think the inverse is, I think more important.
35:41We don't know for sure that he's bad. And we've kind of had that for the Justin Fields sample.
35:46I do think the offensive line is something that everyone just assumes like one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
35:53I think that's like complete fake news. I would say it's like closer to league average.
35:57Their entire left side is above average to elite.
36:00Uh, you have some weak spots on the right side, but at least those guys were drafted high.
36:05And, uh, like you said, slow it was there for the last season.
36:09And, um, yeah, Malik Willis could also, you know, scramble around some.
36:12So I think that the right side of the offensive line, go run behind Patrick Paul, uh, and you'll pick up a first down.
36:19So, uh, it's hard to like move him up past other quarterbacks, uh, in my rankings, but I still do draft him a lot.
36:26Uh, and I'm okay kind of punting off the position, kind of double tapping it.
36:30I'll do Kyler Murray, Malik Willis and like Fernando Mendoza or something like that really late this year.
36:36Uh, it's a, it's a really deep class and that's exactly why I've not been drafting, uh, as much Josh Allen as I typically do.
36:43But yeah, I'm locked in with that last point, like, especially in standard one quarterback home leagues.
36:48Like I, I wrote up my home league draft guide this year and I was like, I really struggled to come up
36:54with a scenario where I would take an early quarterback unless like they're falling all like a round or two past ADP
37:01because yeah, I don't think I even have Willis ranked that high, but I think he's a completely viable quarterback option along
37:07with guy I mentioned earlier, Bo Nix, along with the guy Hayden just mentioned Kyler Murray, along with several other guys and
37:13you take two of them with your last two picks.
37:16I think you're going to be completely fine. Yep.
37:19And again, like the best ballification of fantasy content, I think makes people concerned about whether your last round redraft quarterback gets benched in week 13.
37:26And that is just so relevant. Like literally who cares?
37:29Um, it's like, you know, if, if Malik Willis does get benched, it's like, whatever you, you drop him and you pick
37:35up like Baker Mayfield, who the donkey in your league that drafted Josh Allen in round two took us a backup and
37:42then immediately realized that was a bad idea and dropped him by week four.
37:46He probably will be. Yeah, exactly. He probably will be.
37:49All right. I think I've lost track. Is it Jacob now?
37:52Sure. I'll, I'll let one rip here. So this is like, I started with man, Steve golden, who was a, not my guy in the past.
37:59This is another big time. Not my guy. Uh, Deandre Swift.
38:03Um, this is a guy that I've been extremely critical of over the course of his career.
38:08When he was drafted higher, I think he has serious deficiencies as a rusher.
38:12And I wasn't sufficiently in on him last year because I was concerned that, you know, Ben Johnson had this guy and
38:18basically use like Jamal Williams and Justin Jackson over him because of these various deficiencies.
38:22But I guess Ben Johnson like made lemonade out of lemons because he used the Andre Swift last year where the Deandre
38:29Swift always should have been used last year. Uh, Deandre Swift had, uh, a success rate, um, number six among all qualifying
38:35running backs on zone rushes, 36 on gap rushes, way higher success rate on outside runs and inside runs.
38:40Conversely, Kyle Manunga way higher success rate on gap runs, inside runs, much lower on zone.
38:45So he managed to find a way to kind of use Kyle Manunga as like a meat shield basically to take some
38:51of the, between the tackle stuff that Swift has typically struggled with or struggled to stay durable while using, and then was
38:58able to design a really, really fun game plan around Deandre Swift's actual strength, making sure he was using him on all
39:04these screen passes, some creative pass game work outside of that.
39:07And then of course, a lot of those outside zone runs, toss plays, all of course, around big 58, Darnell Wright, our
39:14most favorite players in the league go Vols. Um, Deandre Swift last year, like I think people view this situation as Swift
39:20is this kind of boring veteran and Manunga is maybe like an ascendant player.
39:24That's often how these things go. It's just not how this looks to me.
39:28Swift had a better rush over expectation percentage than Kyle Manunga, which by the way, Swift had the highest in the entire NFL last year in that stat.
39:36Uh, he had a higher miss tackles force per attempt, had a higher explosive run rate, had more rush yards over expectation
39:43for per attempt, was graded higher by PFF, higher yards per route run, higher target share, higher route rate.
39:48Like almost every single advanced stat, Deandre Swift was mogging Kyle Manunga, who was around seven prospect, who I think is pretty limited.
39:55So I think that the only reason why it kind of got as close as it did is because Ben Johnson realized
40:01like a little bit of less is more with Swift.
40:04I'd rather use him as a 60 to 65% guy and get the most out of them than as an 80% guy.
40:10But you look ahead to this year where Swift's ADP is right now, solidly in the mid to late fourth round.
40:16Um, he's kind of viewed as this dead zone back.
40:19I would argue he has a lot more explosiveness and efficiency upside and a lot more receiving upside than each of Kyron
40:26Williams, Javante Williams, Travis Etienne, David Montgomery. And then he also has a lot more role security than Bucky Irving, facial tootin cam, scataboo Trevion Henderson.
40:33Uh, and certainly a lot more receiving upside than Quinshawn Jenkins, Janarian price plays in a great offense.
40:38So, um, Deandre Swift to me is going to be a top 12 running back this year.
40:43He's going to be the highest scoring running back of anyone in the dead zone.
40:48So I'll say that it's like basically after Jeremiah Love and Brees Hall come off the board until, uh, we start drafting Patriots running backs.
40:55I think Swift's gonna be the highest scoring of all those guys.
40:58It's such a great take. I keep moving up, uh, him closer to like the Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, Kyron Williams tier.
41:05Like there really is not that much of a difference between those guys.
41:08And last year he was the RB 16 so that he would have already paid off this price tag that he's currently at.
41:15Uh, and that was when he was splitting time.
41:18We never really talked about the inverse contingent upside.
41:20What happens if Kyle, uh, Kyle, a nun guy goes down, uh, Deandre Swift.
41:24I mean, he would seriously probably be right next to like a Martin Hampton and like chase Brown and those guys, uh,
41:31as like a second round value, if not even more than that, depending on how the bears do.
41:36And, um, and then guys that banged up right now, it seems like he's questionable for early early parts of the season.
41:42You never know. Um, and Jake, I think it's a good point.
41:46Like Deandre Swift, like a five-star recruit is probably a lot better than like the, I just looked at it.
41:51Kyle, man, I was the 160th, uh, number of running back in his recruit.
41:56And classic, there's probably a pretty big difference here.
41:58Um, and I think we should be trying to gobble up all the bears.
42:02Um, the, whenever I draft like a Puka Jamar chase team, uh, like three, four, I'm like begging for a running back to fall to me.
42:10So, and Deandre Swift's like most notably been that guy.
42:13So like sometimes Jacobs will fall, but Deandre Swift, I feel so much more comfortable with him than the Tootin and all those types.
42:20Like those guys have similar, uh, uh, ceilings as Swift, but Swift's floor just to me seems so much safer.
42:25Like then the next group of running backs behind them.
42:28You mentioned Tootin, like Tootin's upside case is basically Deandre Swift, right?
42:32It's like a, a like explosive back who's going to be ideally in the 60 to 65% half of a timeshare.
42:38Um, but probably loses some like between the tackles work to Chris Rodriguez.
42:41Like I don't really see a world in which Tootin's upside is meaningfully higher than Swift's.
42:46It's just the upside of feeling good about a Tootin hit is a lot higher than feeling good about a Deandre Swift.
42:52And that's important. Um, so I don't want, I don't want to discount that, but I do think that's the key difference
42:59between feelings, feelings and fantasy slimes get overrated. And I think it's, uh, Hayden, you and Josh do the show every year
43:05that it's like the best boring picks in fantasy or something like that.
43:09Deandre Swift makes a list, right? Like he's, he's been around a while, like the one out there who's proclaiming he's the
43:15best running back in the league, but he's just matured.
43:18Like I think each of the past couple of years as a rusher, just gotten a little bit better, a little bit
43:25better vision, very reliable in the passing game. And he still has that, at least on, on tape to me, that explosive
43:31athleticism that made people fall in love with him as a prospect.
43:34And you combine that with the bills offense. I mean, I, I kind of see it as like an arbitrage James cook
43:41play, like he's not going to be a workhorse in the traditional sense.
43:44You probably can't tell a story about him getting massive volume, but he's explosive play.
43:49A guy on an offense that could be really, really good.
43:52Yeah. He is, man. I really hope we find a guy that we disagree on because people are probably getting annoyed by this, but Swift.
43:59Yeah. I same take as you guys fourth round.
44:02Um, I'm all in on it. I will say Swift becomes a lot more fun when you're drafting him and he's like,
44:08he bounces it outside and it works. Like he is objectively a fun player to watch.
44:13Could he be frustrating if you like really, uh, are a nerd?
44:16Sure. But like, if you draft them and you just want to like go like full, like IQ 100, bro, like he's
44:23actually a very fun player, uh, to watch. He doesn't have to bounce anymore because they never hand him inside anymore.
44:29Yeah. He doesn't have to bounce. He only gets outside runs now.
44:32Yeah, exactly. That's a good point. Uh, I'll piggyback on a bears take here.
44:36Roma Duns is going to finish as a top 20 wide receiver.
44:40And if I was bolder than that, I could, let's just say 15.
44:43Let's have some fun. Uh, he had that mid season injury.
44:47There was some, obviously some drops that Roma Duns had.
44:50He's not the perfect player, but I do think people forget just how talented this guy is and how involved Ben Johnson made him early on.
44:57Um, so he was the wide receiver 18 in per game usage.
45:00He was a wide receiver 22 in targets per game at over seven of them.
45:05That was when he was competing with DJ more.
45:07Uh, obviously Colson Loveland's coming on. Of course, Luther burden is coming on, but Roma Duns is not some like static X receiver.
45:14Who's just only going to be on the sideline.
45:17They use him in motion plenty in the preseason.
45:19For example, they leaked him out on play action to get him built up, uh, in space too.
45:24So he's not going to necessarily be like a screen guy, but if this offense is going to play fast enough, pass
45:31the ball enough, and they're going to probably have to pass because of how bad their defense is and how good that division is.
45:38I think that people kind of discount that Roma Duns is like, uh, he's probably better and not the like manufacturer touches,
45:44but like the schemed up touches for Roma Duns.
45:47And he has like the chance and the, I think the athletic ability to take that next step.
45:52If Caleb Williams and, and Rome can get on the same page against zone coverage in particular, uh, I think there's a
45:58much higher ceiling that people are kind of bringing on with Roman news.
46:02So he, he's probably like the least fun guy of the past catchers to talk about.
46:07And I think that's just because he wasn't like awesome down the stretch coming back from that injury.
46:12But before that he was, he was really strong and he also was a top, uh, first round pick on top of things.
46:19So, uh, I think Roma Duns is better at football than we're giving him credit for.
46:23And I think that he's got the potential to be a whole lot better.
46:27If he can round out his game, he and Caleb just got to get on the same page, but year three together,
46:34I think this is when we kind of start seeing the final four.
46:37I, I like that one. And yeah, some, sometimes I feel like people are like intentionally burying their head in the sand
46:44with the Roma Duns, a upside case. Like to me, it's not that hard to understand.
46:48You look at weeks one through eight last year before he started showing up in the court with the foot.
46:54And I think is a real, like people say that's arbitrary doing splits.
46:58I think it's a real thing that this foot injury derailed a season.
47:02So that one weeks one through eight, he had 26% target share, 23% targets per route run with a pretty high a dot over that stretch.
47:09He was the wide receiver nine in, in points per game at 15 and a half.
47:14And I think, you know, I don't, I don't pretend to exactly know, you know, I'm going to talk about another bear
47:20bear's player here in a little bit. I think there's high upside with all of these guys, but I think it's like
47:26clearly one of these situations where it's not like the lions where there's an Amon Ross St.
47:31Brown, who's like locked in with the 30% target share as the wide receiver one.
47:36There's an opening here for somebody to come and get that top role.
47:39And I think a dude, they has, has a good case for it.
47:43So he has been a target for me there as well.
47:46I'll disagree with something for the first time on, on the show so far.
47:50Um, I, I just, I never liked Roman Dunse.
47:53I thought he was an extremely overrated prospect, um, coming out, um, every four year wide receiver.
47:58Um, like he, he came out at a time where a lot of people were really excited to say like, we can draft seniors.
48:05Now declare status doesn't matter at all. Um, this is like the bet, you know, or, or either saying, okay, all these
48:11other seniors were not that great, but he's the best of them.
48:15I never got that case. If you looked at top 16 pick, uh, senior declare wide receivers for the decade leading up to when Roman Dunse was drafted.
48:23Um, the only ones with a lower peak season yards per team pass temp were Mike Williams, Kevin White, John Ross, Roman
48:29Dunse had an overall less productive profile than guys like, well, clearly Devonta Smith and Chris Alave, but also guys like Corey
48:35Davis, Corey Coleman, Devonta Parker, Jahan Dotson. Like I never felt like the analytical profile on a Dunse was remotely compelling.
48:42Um, the film bros loved Roman Dunse coming out.
48:44And so I felt like I have like given them a lot of credence from a combination of, okay, this guy, I got a ton of draft capital.
48:52All the film analysts in the world are really high on this guy.
48:56Like he's paired up with Caleb Williams, ambiguous offense.
48:59Like I'm going to take some shots, even if he's not like my guy and like, maybe I should keep doing that
49:05for a third year in a row. I totally get that the early season stuff was impressive.
49:10I guess my pushback on it would be Luther Byrd and Colson Lovelland were rookies who dealt with injuries in camp and
49:16were barely a part of the offense when Roman Dunse was cooking.
49:20My personal opinion is that if those guys have gotten integrated into the offense later and Roman Dunse never gotten hurt, I
49:26think he has a lot of his role would have been scaled back anyway.
49:30He was out there running routes against Olamide Zaccheaus, Cole Komet, DJ Moore, who like, I think is in the eye of
49:36the beholder, depending on what you think DJ Moore is capable of at this point.
49:41I think it was an impressive stretch for sure.
49:43I think he was obviously better than those guys.
49:46I projected him going into last year to outscore more.
49:49I just feel like when I watch him, I don't know, maybe I'm not as sophisticated as the film community.
49:55I'm probably not. I don't think he's as dynamic of a mover compared to like some of the top upper echelon guys in the league.
50:02If I'm looking at who do I want to get the ball in the hands of that's going to provide explosiveness, I'm going burden every single time.
50:10If I'm going, who do I think is the most reliable offensive weapon on the team?
50:14I think that's Colston Loveland. I just think he's more reliable at the catch point.
50:19And I think you can use him more creatively because you can get him steamed up on the linebackers because you can
50:25play him in line versus Roman Dunse is going to be consistently going as number one corner.
50:30So like if I'm looking at the offense and thinking, okay, who makes the most sense to design the most number of
50:36first reads for Rome comes third on the list for me, um, zoomed out perspective.
50:41Like I get it. Everyone is a little bit uncertain.
50:44He's just is a guy that for me is like always been a, not my guy going up against two of my favorite players in the league.
50:51I already feel like I'm less into burden than I want to be because I'm so into Loveland.
50:57Um, so it's hard for me to then find a lot of room in my heart for Roman Dunse.
51:02That being said, like, you know, we were at a main event draft last night where he fell below ADP and I
51:08didn't advocate for taking him because he wasn't my highest rank player, but I almost hope to get outvoted just to have
51:15a hedge book because I totally see how this works.
51:18Um, so I, I definitely get the upside case.
51:20Um, but I'm, I'm glad we could disagree for once because we're probably not a big part of my draft plans.
51:26Yeah. I think, I think what you just laid out is I think the consensus kind of take on him.
51:32My only counter to all that is, uh, we have on off splits and these can be very dangerous, but with Luther
51:38burden, when Roma duns, a was not on the field, not game, which like not on the field, uh, 3.7 yards per
51:45route, 20%, uh, targets per hour run. When Roma duns, a was on the field, Luther burdens targets per route was under 20%.
51:51His yards per route was 1.1. Obviously the noise is in the yards per route, uh, stuff.
51:56But, um, I do think that Roma duns is not better than Luther burden in the manufactured touch game, but he's not like way, way, way worse.
52:04And I think that in terms of reliability and those, uh, the way you're framing that, I think that Roma duns was
52:10clearly second in each one of those. Uh, and I think that's enough, uh, in this offense.
52:15Yeah. Let's keep it going with the bears discussion.
52:18And my, my take here is I think Colson Loveland is going to finish as the tight end one this season above Brock Bowers, above Trey McBride.
52:26I think obviously this, this is a projection. So let's, let's sort of walk through it.
52:30I think number one, I think if you look at games where he actually was a full-time starter as a rookie, his production was awesome.
52:38Again, this is a small sample, but in six weeks where he ran over 70% of the routes, he averaged 18 and a half PPR points per game.
52:46He eclipsed 20 in four out of six of those games and that scoring, uh, threshold would be right in line with
52:52what Trey McBride did year as the tight end one.
52:55I think also heading into year two, the book has been cleared a little bit for, for target competition.
53:00Uh, you no longer have DJ more there, you know, say about more as a talent last season, but he was on
53:07the field a bunch and clearly I think a better target earner than the guys they're going to replace him with, which
53:13I think in, uh, so in their, their base packages, I think it's either going to be 12 personnel where Cole commit
53:20is going to be out there either running routes raised low likelihood of being targeted or just staying into block.
53:25And then in three wide receiver sets, I think you're going to have a sacrificial third wide receiver out there.
53:31Zavian Thomas running wind sprints, maybe it's a Cleef Raymond, I believe is, is the other guy they have there if I'm not mistaken.
53:38So it's really guys that project to earn no targets, not to even mention, you know, 13 personnel, I think is going to be a thing here.
53:46We're going to have Sam route on the field, a rookie tight end.
53:50Who's not going to earn targets. So I think the ability for this thing to really create on the top three guys, I think is really high.
53:57I think also was someone I loved as a prospect.
54:00I loved his ability to, to win downfield extremely efficient per round basis as a prospect was drafted really high.
54:06I think it, I think the question for him as a prospect was like his per route efficiency is so good.
54:12I wonder why they're not scaling this thing to more routes.
54:15Well, when you have JJ McCarthy at quarterback, this thing makes a little bit more sense.
54:20Now I might also run my offense through, you know, Blake Corum and, and just punishing teams on the run instead of
54:26letting JJ McCarthy think that part makes, makes a little more sense.
54:30And yeah, I think like, you know, this one I'll, I'll scale back from, I think my other takes, I actually would take Concepcion over this one.
54:38Like I am not literally drafting Loveland ahead of the two other guys.
54:41I just tell you he provides later, but I think you compare him to these two other guys.
54:47I mean, these are bottom feeding offenses. Look, any region of implied, you know, points per game, calls and Raiders are going to be bottom five bears.
54:54They're more middle on the pack, but like the ceiling of them being a top five offense, I think is fully there.
55:01I love betting on play callers like Ben Johnson, who just produced year after year.
55:05I love betting on another leap for Caleb Williams.
55:08He had a massive leap from his rookie year to his second season.
55:11I think we could see this thing leap up again, if he can improve his accuracy a little bit.
55:17And I just, I just love this of betting on the bears.
55:20Yeah. I think if the bears are going to be a top three, top five offense, which I think is totally in the range of outcomes this year.
55:28I think that Colson Loveland could end up matching, you know, Brock Bowers and McBride.
55:33He's not going to get the same exact volume in terms of like receptions, but in half PPR, I mean, he, he
55:39can legitimately have seven more touchdowns than, than those other guys in some situations.
55:43And I, I think Colson Loveland is like just as good as those guys are.
55:48Like he, I think he's an incredible player. I think there's an argument that by the end of this year, he'll be
55:54consensus better because I think he's actually a better pure route runner than Trey McBride.
55:58And he's a way better blocker than Brock Bowers.
56:01And that matters a little bit because that means he gets more of those advantageous linebacker matchups than Brock Bowers can.
56:07Cause you can play him in line. You can play him off the line.
56:11You can do a lot of fun stuff with Loveland.
56:14Um, he was my favorite individual player. If we take out positional value in the entire craft class that year, I'm a massive, massive fan of Loveland.
56:22Um, Sherman always brings up JJ McCarthy, which is a great point.
56:25Um, it fails to mention that JJ McCarthy is by a mile, the best quarterback he played with at Michigan.
56:31Like imagine like the year after JJ McCarthy left, they started, uh, Davis Warren, Jack Tuttle, Alex Orgy.
56:36It was a disaster. I mean, they were running the ball.
56:39Like it was no tomorrow. Um, I think Loveland is, is absolutely unreal.
56:43And if you're looking for optimism for all the bears guys, like, um, you know, and to give, uh, Hayden some, some
56:49points back on the Rome stuff after I disagreed a little bit there, you get, I think a lot of people focusing
56:56on the top line of three really talented players, you know, too many mouths to feed, um, and all that stuff.
57:02I mean, first of all, when you bet on one, you can abandon whatever your positive priors are on the other, like
57:08you can entertain the range of outcomes when you draft a Loveland or a Rome that maybe burden, you know, the bear case is right on him.
57:16And then the next draft, you go and take Luther burdens.
57:19Okay. Well, what if the bear case is right on Roma dunes day?
57:23Like all these players have individual ranges of outcomes.
57:25You can play off of each other. You don't have to lock in the ceiling on each.
57:30And more importantly, I think is just how condensed the offense is as a whole.
57:35I think the fantasy community often like overemphasizes sometimes the top line talent and under emphasizes the degree of rotation or the
57:41degree of like alternative tertiary guys that all factor into the mix.
57:45Um, like the lions are, are of course the, the obvious corollary here where they have like four skill players, the running
57:51back and the three pass catchers that they throw to, and they don't throw to anyone else.
57:56And so then you also add in, like we saw last year, you take one guy out of that mix.
58:02It just reallocates to the other guys, right? Sam Laporta goes down last year and it's volume spike for JMO volume spike for Gibbs.
58:09They're not throwing a Slaw or Tom Kennedy. And so any of burden Rome or level in this time, you're just going
58:15to see even more work for the other two, because I don't think it's going to be the Kalief Raymond show all of a sudden this offense.
58:23So, um, I I'm super excited about that. I think a lot of the play volume stuff last year that is unsustainable
58:29on paper for the bears will prove to be more sustainable than you think because their defense is so bad.
58:35And because Ben Johnson is so aggressive on like these fourth down decisions that he's just going to want to sustain drives.
58:41He's going to want to score points. It's an exciting team to bet into.
58:45And, um, I'm, I'm overexposed aggressively to Loveland and, um, definitely think there's upside for all the bears.
58:50I have him in McBride kind of like back to back in my rankings.
58:54I never have to like, I'm never on the clock and I have to like make that decision, but I don't draft
59:01that much Trey McBride just knowing that I have a chance to grab, uh, Loveland and the following rounds.
59:06All right, Jacob, I think this is your last one here.
59:10What do you got? It is, um, this is probably, um, well, not probably this is a take.
59:15I absolutely don't think will happen. It's the take that.
59:18I just think the market is pricing in has like a 1% to happen.
59:22And I'm just going to add a zero. I'm going to say it's a 10% chance to happen.
59:27Um, which is the Trey Harris is the chargers wide receiver one by the end of this season.
59:32Um, this is less of a draft Trey Harris and seasonal league points because I don't think that's necessary.
59:38I'm drafting the crap out of him in best ball or in deeper high stakes stuff, but it's more of a, I'm
59:44really high on the chargers offense and yet significantly below ADP on both lad McConkie and Quinton Johnston.
59:49And this is kind of why point. Um, so here we go first off with Harris, one of the weirdest college profiles
59:55that I've ever evaluated, um, had over five. That's that's correct.
59:59By the way, over five yards per route run.
60:01His final season of college. And you can quite reasonably say, oh, it's super gimmicky because he was this red shirt senior
60:08who played in this area offense and he put up a bunch of his stats against really crappy teams.
60:13And then he got injured part of the season.
60:16I get all of that, but that is fully caveated in.
60:19What I would say is that if he ran like 200 more routes over the rest of the season and was terrible
60:25on them and earned like one yard per route run for the rest of the season, he still would have easily cleared
60:32three yards per route run for the season, which would have been remarkably impressive.
60:36Um, also not that surprising to me that like a converted quarterback who played at Louisiana tech and then an air raid
60:42offense would not be ready to jump in contribute a ton right away in an offense where he was the wide receiver
60:48for on a team with Superbowl aspirations. So I don't hold the lock of playing time and time against him.
60:54And that factors into my next point, which is people have brought up the 1.10 yards per run as a rookie.
61:00That's obviously bad. Um, but Harris basically didn't play at all the first five weeks when the Chargers passing offense was viable.
61:07He saw over 16 routes for the first time in week six, the second half of the season, everyone was terrible on
61:13the Chargers passing offense from Wixie week six onwards.
61:15Harris had a 1.11 yards per route run. QJ was only at 1.17 lad was at 1.32.
61:20So all of these guys were basically equally ineffective.
61:23And I think Harris gets punished for it most because his playing time occurred, um, most frequently when the Chargers just couldn't
61:29block anyone and Herbert was thrown for like 130 yards a game.
61:33Um, he's also, I think their best walking wide receiver, uh, Mike McDaniels typically had a high level of wide receiver interchange and rotation.
61:40Even in the peak of Tyree kill and Jill and Waddle's career, they were living more in the eighties and route rates than like in the upper nineties.
61:48And so I expect there to be some even distribution of routes here.
61:52And then I think the off season has gotten really well for him.
61:55Harris has drawn really strong reviews at camp. Um, I was listening to the locked on Chargers pod yesterday.
62:01They had him as the top offensive standout. Um, and then lad and QJ think there's a lot of questions about them.
62:07Like we've heard a lot of good stuff about them at camp.
62:11Lad was a partial routes, college player. Awesome as a rookie, but then got scaled up over 600 routes last year.
62:17It's catch rate fell dramatically. Yards per reception fell dramatically.
62:20Hargers per run fell dramatically. I think there's like some level of question to how locked in he is.
62:25And QJ is QJ like talented dude also has a lot of really obvious flaws.
62:29Last point I'd make and why I've gotten so much more excited about Harris late in the off season is like this
62:36tight end stuff is kind of wild to me, but I think it's really, really beneficial for Trey Harris.
62:41Um, if somehow you watch this show and you're not following along, Rondé Gadsden went from the presumed tight end one, who
62:48was a major pass catching force to a guy that I don't even know if he's going to be active in week one.
62:54Uh, and they apparently want to play Charlie Collar on all of the tight end snaps.
62:59I'm very bearish that that means a whole lot of targets for Charlie Collar.
63:03My view of it is they probably want to play a lot of 11 personnel.
63:07They just want the tight end to be there for blocking purposes because they like their three receivers and they want to throw to them more often.
63:15All of that, I think, rebounds to Trey Harris's benefit where you can allocate tight end target share to wide receiver target share.
63:22So obviously, do I think he's a better player than Lad McConkie?
63:25Like, no. Um, do I think he is likely to be the wide receiver one?
63:30No. I just think this is like a legitimately ambiguous room with like three talented but flawed players that Mike McDaniels getting
63:36a chance to work with for the first time.
63:39While the ADP has it set like almost identical to the Broncos, right?
63:42Where it's like Lad goes where Waddle goes. QJ goes where Sutton goes.
63:46And Trey Harris goes where Pat Bryant goes. I see more of a ambiguity in this Chargers room that makes me want
63:52to play it through the later guy in like a best ball format.
63:56Keep him as a watch list guy and probably look other directions with my early round picks ahead of Lad and ahead of QJ.
64:03So I'm not drafting Trey Harris, but I do agree that his presence, I think, does go overlooked for what Lad McConkie
64:09and QJ are going to be doing this year.
64:12If McDaniels just does, uh, Mike McDaniels does the exact same thing he's done previously.
64:16They've been like number 29 in three wide receiver set snaps.
64:20So if, if, if Trey Harris gets out there at the expense of Lad McConkie and QJ because they want to rotate
64:26those guys, that is a big deal in terms of just like total snaps and routes run for Lad McConkie.
64:32So I love Lad McConkie. I have only 3% of him because of players like some of the running backs we talked about, like the DeAndre Swift.
64:40I'll draft Josh Jacobs and those guys over him.
64:42Jalen Waddle, those, uh, those kind of wide receivers.
64:45Because I do think there's a chance that Lad McConkie is like an 84% route player.
64:49Uh, and then QJ is like 76%. And then Trey Harris gets out there, uh, at their expense.
64:55They could be a three wide receiver set or three tight end set team on occasion as well.
65:00So, uh, yeah, I think Trey Harris is like just good enough to be annoying.
65:04I'm not sure if he's good enough to like be relevant in fantasy.
65:08I think he's gonna have some spike weeks. I think him versus like Ryan Floreno and stuff.
65:13I think that Trey Harris, uh, as the better number three, I think does make sense.
65:17Uh, but I've been kind of taking the Trey Harris stuff as like, what if Lad McConkie just like does not run
65:24nearly as many routes as the other guys in round four.
65:27And that would be how he does not pay off, uh, as like a top 20 ish fantasy wide receiver.
65:33And then he's more of like a frustrating wide receiver 32.
65:36Sam, what do you think? That's, that's more how I'm looking at it too.
65:40Like he's Harris himself for me is best ball only, but it affects the other guys.
65:45Yeah. I haven't been drafting a lot of risks.
65:47I think for me, I think, uh, Jacob made, it made a good case.
65:51Uh, I just think there's like, if I'm drafting for like clear bets on early season that I could plug in my
65:58starting lineup right away, I might look in the direction of like Devon on the saints, Keenan Allen on the Colts.
66:04And then if I'm shooting for like more true upside, I have options like Travis Hunter, some of these rookie, uh, Jacoby lane, Zachariah branch.
66:11And I know Jacob probably isn't saying, you know, draft Harris, draft over these guys.
66:15That's not the crux of his point, but I just think I go in different directions and get, get more.
66:21I also think like the, the Colar point is an ending one.
66:24I just think that like rotational, there's going to be a lot of different formations that McDaniel is going to use where it's Colar in line 11.
66:32And then a Rondé Gadsden is a slot wide receiver.
66:35I think even Brennan Thompson has had a good camp and he could rotate in.
66:39Shout out my guy, Brennan Thompson. Dude, Brennan Thompson, by the way, was absolutely roasting everybody in the sec.
66:45Uh, and it's like one of the fastest guys in the NFL.
66:48Like I think, I think he's very interesting. I, I, he's probably not going to get enough snaps, but like, I think
66:55they should use Brennan Thompson for 10 routes per game and see what the hell happens.
66:59Like he faced so much press man coverage against like the top corners and was just blowing by them routinely.
67:05It's like kind of one, a one trick pony situation, but like his trick is pretty awesome.
67:10Uh, in a Justin Herbert offense. Yeah. People always loved to bring up, uh, I don't know why I'm saying people.
67:16Cause he's on the show. It's Sam Sherman. He always brings up how impressive, you know, people, he's like people that denigrate
67:23Pierce's target earning, but actually a 17% targets per run on an eight odd of 20.
67:27It's like actually pretty good. And I think it's a fair point.
67:31Obviously this is college, not the pros, but Brennan Thompson, 23% targets per run on an eight odd of 18.4 in the sec last year.
67:38Um, so I guess, I guess Sam was so upset with the plagiarism.
67:42He left the show, um, but Brennan, Brennan Thompson.
67:44Um, like obviously he's not draftable, uh, in, in fantasy right now, but, um, for my, for my dynasty people, he's like
67:51my number one dude for late round sleep. Yeah.
67:53I can totally see them getting rid of like huge a after the next season or two.
67:58I forget when his contract is up. And then all of a sudden like Brennan Thompson starting to matter a little bit more.
68:05I thought his tape was like really fun and very unique player.
68:08But, uh, once you go to Mike McDaniel, I do think that's awesome.
68:12And he was, I remember the video, they were very excited that he, um, had fallen to them.
68:17All right. My last one is probably the one I believe in the least, but I think Jalen hurts is going to
68:23be the best like elite quarterback value, if you will.
68:26And I'll say that he's going to be the highest advanced rate quarterback this season.
68:31He goes in a range where the running backs and wide receivers, I just don't love.
68:35And I'm kind of forced into drafting one of these elite quarterbacks.
68:39Obviously Jalen hurts has been a quarterback, uh, one quarterback to before, I think over the last four seasons, he's actually the
68:45quarterback to, uh, just ahead of Lamar Jackson. Um, and I think that there's a chance that he can go back to that.
68:52I'm pretty, um, I'm looking into the, the, the new, uh, play caller and it seems like things are going, uh, it's
68:58a little bit inconsistent, but I do think that what they're trying to do, like I saw like Makai lemon leak out
69:05of the backfield for a touchdown and practice. They're using more three wide receiver sets.
69:09They're making the offensive line feel a little bit more comfortable.
69:12Lane Johnson in particular has talked about how it's just gonna be easier for them.
69:16It's gonna be less static, uh, at the skill group, but the offensive lines a little bit more calm down.
69:22I think all that stuff is good for Jalen hurts.
69:25I think more important than all of that is the fact that he's lost some weight is a very clear signal that
69:31he's going to run around a whole lot more.
69:34Uh, he's averaged 29, uh, yards per game on scrambles, design runs and zone read runs in 2021 to 2024.
69:40That was at 45. So that's a one and a half point difference right there, but it also allows them to pick up more first downs.
69:47Like, I think that's just like a promising thing for him.
69:50It sounds like they're going to still do the, the tush push as they absolutely should.
69:55He actually lost some tush pushes to like Dallas Goddard on the little, uh, kind of like variants where like those things could go back to Jalen hurts.
70:03And then I think what's most interesting about Jalen hurts.
70:06We've never been able to do this really is you can draft Jalen hurts kind of in that, like I would say
70:12the dead zone of just all fantasy drafts and then stack them up after with someone like Makai lemon, who I think
70:19is an awesome pick, uh, when we're talking about upside cases.
70:22And I think Dallas Goddard is very relevant when you're looking at like projections versus his ADP.
70:27So I think just kind of a dead zone I'm building my teams.
70:31And I, I think that his situation versus like Jaden Daniels is like, there's like no, it's like a no contest.
70:37Joe burrow versus Jalen hurts over years and years.
70:39It's leaned, uh, Jalen hurts. Uh, and he does seem like one of the guys where, uh, when everyone's kind of kicking
70:46him when he's down, he like some way battles back.
70:49So, uh, I think it's a very fun click just like in the context of the entire ADP landscape.
70:54Um, so I've been doing like a lot of like Jalen hurts, Kyler Murray teams and that quarterback.
70:59And this is not a third round, fourth round Jalen hurts.
71:02Like there's a difference when you can get in six, seventh, uh, and some like the hardcore redraft leagues, he'll fall like the round eight, round nine.
71:10At that point, some of the wide receivers and running backs were drafting over him.
71:15It's like, it's way too fancy. Um, so give me Jalen hurts.
71:18This one. I totally agree with the point. Like, especially I'm doing a lot of, uh, best ball drafts.
71:24There's this complete dead zone at like the six, seven turn.
71:27I think it is where you're, you're staring at Jaden Daniels, Drake may Jalen hurts.
71:31And then it's like Tony Pollard, Rico Dowdle at running back.
71:34And then like, yeah, it's just completely disgusting. Yeah.
71:37Yeah. Trey Harris is back up. I have my ranks uploaded, not ADP.
71:41So I don't see QJ there, but I know he goes there, but I have been tie breaking a little bit to, to may and Daniels over hurts.
71:49I, I guess for me, like maybe it is just like the bad vibes, um, that I have from last year with
71:55the Eagles that potentially I'm overrating a little bit, but I do see a bit higher of like passing ceilings for may and Jaden Daniels.
72:02I think what is undeniable is like the rushing touchdowns for Jalen hurts can just kind of wipe those guys out.
72:08Uh, so I think, I think that's a good case.
72:11You kind of sold me on, on mixing up the exposures between those three quarterbacks there because it does just feel like
72:18a prime area to target, target a quarterback. I would just say for, for Jaden Daniels, the infrastructure there might be really bad.
72:24Like I'm getting very nervous about the offensive line.
72:27Like they don't have a center that can like snap the ball right now.
72:31Their left tackle spot, like took a huge hit with Larry Muton.
72:34So like, I think organizationally they're still like pretty flawed.
72:37Like one of the moments of the off season was they released Tyler Biotish and then the charger signed Biotish for more
72:44money than the cap savings that the commanders could have had, which is like a sign that you should probably just trade them.
72:50Like teams are valued more than what, uh, you're, you're releasing them for.
72:54So like weird things like that. Uh, the, the wide receiver group is still pretty bad, um, in general.
72:59So I have my, I think that Jaden's like a fine pick, but I just think him versus Jalen hurts.
73:05I think you have to take the infrastructure and it's like, there's a chance like Makai, Lemon, Dontabian, Wicks, like it doesn't equal AJ Brown, like exactly.
73:13But I think as a whole group, you can maybe do a little bit more if you have more weapons to kind of throw the ball to.
73:21And I would just be fascinated to see him in not a completely different offense, but in an offense that's a little bit less predictable.
73:28Um, and we'll see what happens. I think if he runs a whole lot more and like, there's, there's no reason for
73:34him to be losing all that weight unless he's running a lot more.
73:38Um, I think that's how he gets back to like the truly like elite quarterback range.
73:43All right. I think that's all of the main ones.
73:46Is there anything else you guys want to get off, off your chest?
73:49Um, or should we wrap it there? That was an hour 15 already.
73:53Leave it up. I think I emptied out the junk drawer with three Harris.
73:57So I don't think I can take, but you know, you, you guys can, you guys can find that on Twitter.
74:03I think he's an advocate season though. Okay. Okay.
74:06Um, all right. You guys can find Jacob Sanderson, Sam Sherman on Twitter.
74:10Of course, uh, Jacob, you have both. You guys have a lot of stuff going on, but yeah, Jacob, tell us where you're writing these days, podcasting.
74:17Do you do the whole nine yards? All right.
74:20Uh, so you can find my, all of my written work or actually that's no longer true.
74:25You can find most of my written work at jacobsanderson.substack.com.
74:28You can find a little bit of my written work over at the athletic.
74:32Um, I'll have two pieces up. One already came out and one will come out tomorrow.
74:37My top, uh, sells and buys for dynasty formats.
74:39Um, and then you can find me on various podcasts, uh, ship chasing the long view and, uh, dynasty points.
74:45Um, if you want my rankings for best ball, redraft, any of that stuff, that's all over on the sub stack by draft guide as well.
74:52Um, which is thinking about thinking jacobsanderson.substack.com. Thanks a ton for, for having me.
74:56Yeah. That's what you have to do. Once you, uh, quit your real time job and you want to do fantasy work,
75:03you got to have 19 things going on, but Jacob's Jacob's crushing.
75:06I gotta, I gotta get a link tree. Cause I just like doing like the apps and my Twitter bio and taking
75:13away from, I've been like changing words into emojis now, like try and save space and stuff.
75:18Yeah. But it's all excellent. Sam, what do you have?
75:20I actually, I don't know what you're doing. Are you doing anything for, for in season or are you going to take it?
75:27In season still a bit TBD, but, um, unfortunately I'm like you guys, I still got the real job, uh, issue that's a blocking me.
75:34Um, so, uh, yeah, right now this off season, um, you're, you're acting like you're acting like you have no choice and you're just $2 million.
75:42It seems like options are good for you, but yeah, like I gotta pay the bills.
75:46Like, I don't know how else it's going to happen.
75:49Like, get out of here. I'm sorry. There's not the taxes in Massachusetts.
75:53You guys, you guys don't know what I have left.
75:56Um, but anyways, yeah, you need to, you need to do like the former athlete.
76:00To save on taxes. Yeah, exactly. But you should do the former athlete thing.
76:04You're like, have you guys heard about these taxes?
76:07And we're like, what? Have your money's gone? I've never heard of this.
76:11They got this thing called the millionaires tax in Massachusetts.
76:14Anyways, uh, it's a huge, huge over to me.
76:16Um, but Sam's going to turn into Le'Veon Bell overnight.
76:19You need to go on CNN and explain how, how bad this is.
76:23Like the, the local man, like local fantasy football winner complains about tax rate.
76:27If I could, I'm coming out to LA. If I could borrow your wardrobe, Hayden, I'm happy to go on CNN.
76:33Oh, for sure. Yeah. Plenty of turtlenecks in August for you.
76:36I'll have them waiting. How many outfits did you try on before settling on that, by the way?
76:41So I knew I wanted to wear, uh, this tweed suits, but the problem with the tweed suit is like all the
76:48undershirts were like getting a little bit too busy.
76:50And I didn't want to do just like a plain light blue shirt.
76:54And I didn't want to wear a tie because nobody else, like at their guests, they were wearing ties.
77:00So I was like, you know what? I'm not going to do this boring.
77:04I'm going to do the turtleneck here. And then I followed dye work where one of the best accounts on Twitter.
77:10Everyone has to have to read everything he publishes.
77:12And the one thing he says with the tweed suits, rock the turtleneck.
77:16Like that's, that's like the whole point of... Does he comment on whether that's a move in August?
77:21Uh, well, here's the thing people forget. Uh, studios are about 19 degrees.
77:25If you guys have ever been to a studio and that recording was, uh, I had to get there at 930.
77:31I wasn't live until 1030, which is completely fair.
77:34Like why are we talking games football on CNN?
77:36Like we should bury that until, you know, it's past midnight, of course.
77:40Uh, but... First, Tariff. Yes. Second, Iran. Third, Aiden Winks.
77:43I was literally like in the, in the green room with Van Jones.
77:47Uh, and he, he was talking about, you know, politicians I've never even heard of, but he, he was all fired up.
77:53But, uh, I was outside for about four seconds in the turtleneck.
77:57I survived the four seconds. And then inside CNN studios, it's, it's hashtag cold.
78:01But, uh, yeah, I, I, I guess I should have seen it coming.
78:04How big of a deal the turtleneck was. It got away from my message.
78:08The message was, you know, the, the five guys that you needed to draft and then everyone gets distracted.
78:14So next time I have to wear a regular shirt to get my point.
78:18I think the turtleneck was, was great. Um, and I've been, I've been telling everyone that I'm doing a podcast today with the guy who was on CNN.
78:26Um, no, no one has thought it's cool yet, but I'm going to keep, I'm going to keep trying it eventually.
78:32Yeah. But, uh, yeah, I guess the advice is die work where get notifications turned on, study some, some tape with, with him.
78:39He's, uh, he's the true man. All right. That's enough of that.
78:42Uh, follow these guys work. We'll be back, uh, next week.
78:45Uh, Josh will be back and we'll do tons of more shows getting close to week one.
78:50Can't wait. Good luck guys. Peace.

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