0:00Bold Predictions, Truth Serum. I think we kind of believe these takes fully, but we're going to get bold here.
0:06This is going away from the Yahoo consensus, away from the consensus out there.
0:10Some new takes that I haven't exactly delivered. I'm bringing on Sam Sherman and Jacob Sanderson.
0:14Both of these guys have been waiver wire kings for us on the program.
0:18You guys know them. You guys love them. I think we'll just skip this one squared away right now.
0:24Sam Sherman, give me your first bold take. Yeah, I'm going to go with Jeremiah Love should just be straight up drafted ahead of Ashton Gentry.
0:31And I think this one comes down to a couple different reasons.
0:35I think one, the timing of the injury for both of these guys is kind of important.
0:40You know, both of them suffering ankle sprains to some degree.
0:43Love's was in August 13th and Gentty's was almost two weeks later around August 23rd.
0:47So he does have that extra 10 days or so to recover from that ankle sprain.
0:52So that's one point. I think two, I am just a little skeptical of the talent of Gentty.
0:57And I think he's an awesome player. I think he's going to be a workhorse running back in the NFL for a long time.
1:04But is he the talent that can overcome iters' offense environment as a player that's getting drafted at the one-two turn?
1:10I'm just not sure about that. His advanced metrics last year weren't overly impressive to me.
1:15His receiving metrics were also not that impressive, less than one yard per route run this past season.
1:20And I think I would just rather re-roll the talent bet on someone like Jeremiah Love, who was drafted third overall.
1:26Again, Gentty was drafted a little bit later than that.
1:29And I just see Love's explosive playability, him being a true dynamic weapon in the passing game in a way that I
1:35didn't quite see with Gentty last year. So if I'm betting on one of these two guys to overcome a really bad
1:42offensive environment, I don't think either of us, you know, think that the Raiders or Cardinals are going to be particularly impressive this year.
1:49I'm betting on the guy that I think has more explosibility, I think is a better receiving back.
1:54And that's why I think Jeremiah Love, who's going, I think in like the 30s in a lot of drafts now, I
2:00think he should be straight up going ahead of Ashton Gentty, who's closer to the one-two turn.
2:05Yeah, I really love this take. I'm trying to make Jeremiah Love maybe like my most drafted player as he's kind of
2:11getting to the 30s and 40s, depending on the format.
2:14I think that's like an automatic click. I think he is better than Ashton Gentty straight up.
2:19So, Jacob, I know that you like Gentty in general.
2:22Obviously, we're recalibrating with the ankle sprain here. How good does he actually have to be for him to kind of pay
2:29off like a mid-round two price tag at this point?
2:31Like how much does the talent like actually matter?
2:34Or do you think he's just like one of the best running backs in the NFL?
2:39Well, I find myself very frustrated by how this is all gone.
2:42I disagree with I think both of you guys on the talent profile pretty meaningfully.
2:46I had him as my eighth overall player before the injury.
2:50But what I guess I disagree with the rest of the market on is whether ankle sprains matter because I've moved him down a lot after that.
2:57I have him now, I think, as my like 23rd ranked overall player right now following the ankle injury.
3:03Maybe that seems too extreme. But to me, it's the first two rounds are filled with a lot of really good players.
3:09And so even a guy that I had as a clear first round bet, if you're telling me he's likely missing time
3:16in the early season and then may need time to ramp up back after that, maybe leaves a window open for a
3:22backup to emerge from like a guy was projecting to be a 20% of snaps player to a 35% of snaps player
3:28if he impresses against what I think is the worst team in the league in week one, the Miami Dolphins.
3:34That's a meaningful shift to his outlook. So I don't know.
3:37It's kind of like the worst of all counts for me.
3:40You know, Ashton Gentry gets hurt. So all the teams I'd already drafted him on are worse now.
3:46And I feel like I'm not going to draft him again for the rest of the summer.
3:51So I'm happy for like the couple teams that I got in the five hours where everybody was out for the season.
3:57Those are the only Ashton Jenty teams I'm happy with now in my whole portfolio.
4:01Yeah. So I have them 24th and 25th back to back.
4:04I got Breeze Hall kind of right there as well.
4:07I kind of have those guys with Omari and Hampton like their own tier.
4:11I kind of like you that was like a boom bust tier of running backs where like Derek Henry Chase, we kind of know what we're getting.
4:19And then this next tier, I think one or two of those guys are going to pop off.
4:24Maybe two of the guys don't totally bust like even Ashton Jenty.
4:28Like if he had the same season as last year and he's he's probably gonna be better than that at the two,
4:34three turns, like not even that big of a deal.
4:37All right, Jacob. All right. This is a guy that I think we're all pretty big on this year.
4:43So I'll start it off by reaching consensus. Mr.
4:45Matthew Golden. I want to level set by stating that I dislike this prospect more than most and most also dislike this prospect.
4:52So it's not like this is a guy I'm truthering for.
4:55This was a guy I wrote up very dismissively as a rookie prospect.
4:59He certainly didn't do anything as a rookie that made me feel burnt by that or come off that view significantly.
5:05But I also don't feel like he did anything to like absolutely confirm that view.
5:09I kind of would mark his rookie season as incomplete.
5:12He ends up coming in at just under 1.5 yards per route run on a very small sample of routes, which also
5:18included some really missed deep attempts that could have drastically altered his sample and the trajectory of his season.
5:24When you consider how few routes he actually ran and none of those were his fault.
5:29This wasn't a Xavier worthy situation of not knowing where to get his feet in on the sideline.
5:34This was Jordan Love, one of the best deep ball throwers in the league, like just kind of missing him on a couple of small plays.
5:41And mostly this take is based off of I think the market just being irrational on this player.
5:46So to throw out some counter examples, Ricky Pearsall was also a pretty questionable round one pick analytically.
5:52I would say a lower upside one. He was a significantly older player, actually.
5:56And then he comes off of a season that like Golden's, I would say it was like an incomplete rookie season or
6:02kind of a Rorschach test rookie season. And the offseason goes really well for him going into year two.
6:08They don't have Brandon Ayuk as part of the plans.
6:10Jawan Jennings misses time in camp. Pearsall's drawing great reviews.
6:13Everyone gets really excited about the investment and opportunity.
6:16Steams all the way up to like the 5-6 turn towards the end of the year, especially in some of the high stakes stuff.
6:23Just throw out another guy, your boy, the Strib Club.
6:26I mean, also a prospect that you guys liked him more than me.
6:30But I mean, you'd have to admit, really questionable on some analytical markers.
6:33And, you know, he's having obviously a fantastic summer.
6:36Everything around him is going great with injuries to teammates.
6:39And the market is like, okay, you know, screw the prospect question marks.
6:43We're all in on this investment and opportunity. It's maybe getting a little out of hand for me, but I totally understand it.
6:49I mean, I am ranked above ADP right now in like at least home league sites.
6:54But apparently none of this applies to Matthew Golden.
6:56I just don't really understand why people are so stubborn on this profile.
7:00They've completely cleared the decks for him. Dobbs is one thing.
7:03They had no need to get rid of Dontavian Wicks at all.
7:07They got barely anything back for him. He was still on a rookie contract.
7:11It seems like they got rid of him just for the express purpose of not having to rotate wide receivers and being
7:17able to play these main three guys. Matthew Golden is the player that to me has the largest overlap and potential role with Romeo Dobbs.
7:24He's the most significant portion of this offense exiting.
7:27Dobbs last year ran 52% of his routes on digs, curls, and outs.
7:31He operated in the intermediate areas of the field.
7:33Christian Watson, talented deep threat player, like fun per route profile.
7:37He's never translated that into being an all-around receiver.
7:39You look at his yards per route run stuff, it's really fun.
7:43You look at any of Matt Harmon's charting. You look at the ESPN Open score charting.
7:47It's never shown him to be this all-around receiver that I think can operate effectively as a wide receiver one at all depths.
7:54He's also never run 300 routes before in his career.
7:57Tucker Craft, also really talented player. Limited player. He has an 8-0 under 5 last year, even in his breakout season.
8:03And of course, Jaden Reed, I think, is limited in terms of the number of routes that he runs.
8:08So, who do I think has the actual best chance to step in to be the number one receiver?
8:14Like the all-around depths wide receiver on this team that runs every route at every area of the field?
8:19I think it's Matthew Golden. I think the Packers want it to be Matthew Golden.
8:24And the only people who I don't think want it to be Matthew Golden are fantasy managers.
8:29So, I guess I didn't spell out my actual bold take, which is bad podcasting by me.
8:34My bold take is Matthew Golden will be the highest scoring Green Bay pass catcher this season.
8:38And I think should be drafted much closer to being like it.
8:42Yeah, there's a point in drafts, like round seven, where it's like Metcalf, Cardinal Tate, Brian Thomas, you know, like Alec Pierce, Chris Godwin.
8:49And I would just take Matthew Golden there. I'd never have to because he's like completely buried.
8:54I would say the only thing I'm going to add to this is the Packers also might pass the ball more in general.
9:00It's been one of the slowest paced offenses in this offseason.
9:04This offseason, they've talked about going up tempo. And in that first preseason game, they were getting out of the huddle, going
9:10right to the line of scrimmage and snapping the ball directly.
9:13I think, you know, they're just testing things out.
9:16But like if that's going to be one of the motivations for this upcoming season, like we can see a team that's
9:22like typically what, like 26 and pass attempts every single season, go all the way up closer to like league average.
9:28And that's where all these guys can get homes.
9:31Matthew Golden, one of my top picks as well.
9:33Sam, I know you're on him. Is there any other reasons why?
9:37Yeah, I think just like building on Jacob's point of I think people treat his rookie season like it was complete disaster.
9:43Looking at PFF data, you know, including the playoff game, he was at 1.53 yards for route run in his rookie season.
9:50That was better than guys like George Gens, Smith and Jigba, Cortland Sutton, Nico Collins.
9:54You can go on and on like 1.5 yards for route run for rookie is like not a bad season at all.
10:00All people dock him is because it's bad to not earn that many routes as a rookie receiver.
10:05I totally get that. But I think there's valid excuses.
10:08Like it's not like he wasn't earning routes against nobodies.
10:11Like the guys they that left in free agency, Romeo Dobbs signed a huge contract with the Patriots.
10:16He's a starter for a team that's competing for a Super Bowl.
10:20Dontavian Wicks got traded for the Eagles. He's also a day one starter for a team that's competing for a Super Bowl.
10:26These are like two legit players that were in front of him and blocking him.
10:31And I don't think we should be docking him that much because he couldn't beat out some of those guys during his rookie season.
10:37So, yeah, I'm totally on board with with both of you guys here.
10:41Golden is a huge priority target for me. Yeah, also a really young player, pretty inexperienced player, even like transferring in that last season.
10:48Like he wasn't a full time player that entire season, which you can say is like that's why he's not going to be good in the NFL.
10:56But like if that was one of the reasons why he wasn't getting on the field as much, I think that is a valid reason.
11:03All right. My first one, we go up the board here.
11:06Jalen Waddle is going to be a top 10 wide receiver.
11:10I've been drafting him plenty in the fourth round.
11:12I think that he should be going in the third round right next to Devante Smith.
11:17Now that he's fully back at practice, he's been beating Pat Sertan down the field.
11:21He's been getting open on these crossing routes. And it's just very obvious that Sean Payton is going to make him a centerpiece.
11:28He was already the wide receiver 12 in 2022.
11:30He nearly hit that mark as a rookie when he was the wide receiver 18.
11:35Sean Payton has 11 seasons as a top five offense and pass attempts.
11:38He's finished top half of the league in 14 of 21 seasons.
11:42On top of that, both seasons with Bo Nix, this has been a pass first team.
11:47I don't think people understand that necessarily. Fourth in neutral pass rate, eighth in neutral pace, 15th in points per game.
11:53The only thing we're waiting for is Bo Nix to take that next step.
11:57And I think a lot of people discount that because they didn't like him as a prospect, I guess.
12:02But we're talking about a year three player who's had some success.
12:06And then with Jalen Waddell, he's just going to eat up so much of that screen volume over the last two seasons.
12:12Bo Nix, Sean Payton, they've been number one in screens.
12:15And they do throw some screens to the running backs.
12:18But it's actually a lot of them are actually to the wide receivers.
12:22Like both Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin have averaged over a target per game in the screen game over the last two seasons, which is absurd.
12:29I think all that stuff is going to go to Jalen Waddell.
12:32Cortland Sutton is going to get the X receiver stuff.
12:35Jalen Waddell is going to be the move piece.
12:38He's done this before. This is going to be an awesome offense.
12:41And I just think that we're discounting Jalen Waddell because the injury concerns.
12:45And guess what? A lot of the players in round three are going to get injured.
12:50But as long as he stays healthy, I think he's going to go all the way to the moon.
12:55I think, Jacob, you have something similar to this one.
12:58You want to piggyback? Yeah, I do. So my take was the Broncos will be a top five NFL scoring offense and
13:05will have at least three fantasy smashes. I'm huge on the Broncos this year.
13:09They would be my Super Bowl pick right now.
13:11The market does not agree. They have an over under win total of nine and a half after just winning 14 games.
13:18They're not even projected as a top 15 scoring offense.
13:20So the top five is a pretty bold call.
13:23You mentioned a lot of the Waddell enthusiasm. I completely share it.
13:27I mean, I kind of zoom out on that a little bit more systemically.
13:31So this team, first of all, if you look at Brandon Thorne's ratings, fantasy points ratings, PFS ratings, almost anyone's ratings that you care about.
13:38The Broncos have the number one offensive line in the NFL.
13:41That's a fantastic start. Bo Nix, you mentioned, finished 16th and 17th at EPA per drop back over his first two years.
13:47That's a pretty good start to a career for a rookie.
13:51It's especially impressive to me when this is a guy who was not, like you said, operating on some 480 drop back gimmicky play action based offense.
13:58He had to drop back and pass a lot.
14:01He had led the entire NFL in pass attempts last season.
14:04And I think that he's had an underratedly bad cast of characters to throw to.
14:08Yes. I mean, no disrespect to Troy Franklin. I think that the degree of addition by subtraction here is remarkably understated.
14:15Um, these, this is the entire list of players who had at least 50 targets and eight out of at least 12
14:21and under seven yards per target last season. We know yards per target is correlated to eight up.
14:26So if you're earning a bunch of downfield targets and you're not efficiently adding yards per target, that's a serious problem.
14:32Troy Franklin's on this list alongside Adonai Mitchell and injured Mike Evans, Darnell Mooney, Alec A.O.
14:37Manor, Van Jefferson, Keon Coleman, and Jerry Judy. That is like, well, first of all, it's a concerning sign if you're drafting Mike Evans this year.
14:44But also it's like all of the other worst receivers in the NFL that everyone agrees is terrible.
14:49He had 102 targets last year. He ran like, um, I believe he was top 20 in the NFL in total routes run.
14:56And I think a big reason for that was they were trying to move away from Cortland Sutton as the one because he's just not that dynamic.
15:04They were trying to find an answer on Troy Franklin.
15:07He can't play the ball at all. He wasn't the answer.
15:10Dylan Waddle can be the answer. They go from, in my opinion, like one of the most detrimental players.
15:15If you combine the size of his role and the stakes of the team to now one of the most important upgrades
15:22to that position across the entire NFL in Dylan Waddle.
15:25I agree. I think he's going to be a top 10 receiver.
15:28I think Bo Nix is going to be a top 10 quarterback, which shouldn't be bold because he has been a top
15:3510 quarterback each of his first two seasons with far worse weapons.
15:38And then you bring in the running back group.
15:41I'm less confident about who exactly in the running back room is going to be a key part of the fantasy season.
15:47I just think this is going to be a train that you're going to want as many pieces of as possible.
15:53And so I'm pretty open minded to any of Dobbins, Harvey or Coleman at their respective ADPs, depending on your team situation.
15:59But definitely grab Waddle, stack them up with Nix late, stick a Broncos running back on your bench.
16:05And I think you're going to profit. Dan, do you have anything to add?
16:09And if not, you can go to your next.
16:11Yeah. All I'd say, and I agree with everything you guys said, I think specifically on the Waddle point, I would just
16:18say, I mean, to use Jacob's phrasing. I mean, no disrespect to, you know, parentheses, I do mean disrespect to Tua, but
16:24I think that it's still underrated how bad Tua was last year.
16:27And Jalen Waddle was dealing with that. I think that is a big excuse for why he didn't smash in a situation
16:34where many people, I think part of the, you know, concern for Waddle is like, well, he had the wide receiver one
16:40last year in Miami and didn't, you know, cross for my fantasy team.
16:44And man, Tua just lost a starting quarterback competition to nobody.
16:47I mean, Penix was, Penix was injured the entire off season and he, he lost it competing against literally, literally no one.
16:53So Ryan, maybe. Exactly. Yeah. So I think we could have a bit of an upgrade from Mr.
16:59Tagovolo to Bo Nix for, for Waddle. Yeah, that's a, that's a very, very fair point.
17:03All right, Sam, what's your next day? I'll stick with exciting rookies that I'm targeting this year.
17:08I think Casey Concepcion should be the highest drafted rookie wide receiver.
17:12And I think he'd be going ahead of Carnell Tate looking at Yahoo ADP.
17:16That is a bold take versus consensus. I think Concepcion is going in the 11th round and Carnell Tate is going in the seventh round.
17:23I think the biggest pushback to this point immediately would be looking at the NFL draft order and saying, Hey, Sam, did
17:29you see Carnell Tate went fourth overall and Concepcion went 24th overall?
17:33And I totally understand that. I am firmly a believer in draft capital matters.
17:37I trust NFL teams to evaluate players generally more than guys with spreadsheets.
17:41But I do think you have to consider the archetype of player that these two guys are.
17:45I think Carnell Tate in Tennessee, he's going to be lined up on the outside for a huge number of snaps.
17:52They have Wondell Robinson there. In college, per Matt Harmon's charting, Carnell Tate was lined up on the outside for 85% snaps.
17:58So that means he's going to be on the outside against number one corners, having to win in one-on-one situations with Cam Ward as his quarterback.
18:05And after what I've seen, I know we shouldn't overreact too much to the preseason, but after what I've seen in the
18:12preseason, I am very bearish on this Brian Dable, Cam Ward offense in year two.
18:16And for Concepcion, you could say, hey, he's on the Browns.
18:19Are things going to be much better at quarterback?
18:22I would say probably not. But the thing about Concepcion is he's much better in terms of a guy that you can get schemed touches to.
18:29He had 70 rush attempts in college, 25 kick returns, and was very effective in both of those facets.
18:35He's a guy you can get the ball to in jet sweeps, screens, carries.
18:39He's a package of a handful of design touches per game.
18:42So he can be much more of that sort of PPR scam in a way that actually still pays off, even in
18:48an offense that, you know, let's be honest. The Browns are going to be bottom five in scoring this year.
18:54I'm conceding that. But I do think that sort of volume could be there for Concepcion.
18:59So I think, like, zooming all the way out when we're talking about rookie wide receivers and, like, you're kind of investing
19:05in this, like, mystery box of talent. I want to be thinking about, you know, how can I do it more cheaply?
19:12And how can I find a player that can succeed despite being in a bad environment?
19:16And I just think Concepcion checks way more of those boxes than Tate does.
19:20And I would, in a managed league with all my money on the line, I would be betting on Concepcion over Carnell Tate this season.
19:27I got Lemon, Concepcion, and Tate back to back to back in my overall rankings.
19:32And this is what I needed to move Casey Concepcion to the top of it.
19:36First of all, Sam, the only thing that matters to the NFL draft is my top 100.
19:41And I had Carnell Tate ninth and Casey Concepcion 14th in the same tier.
19:45So I don't think even though the draft capital would suggest that they're tiers away, I would not have said that before the draft.
19:52And I'd say Makai Lemon also right in that tier as well.
19:55And yeah, that's for all the reasons that you talked about.
19:59Casey Concepcion is an electric athlete. I think that he can do like a Jalen Waddell type of impression underneath and work down the field.
20:06He's way tougher and denser than a lot of the guys he gets comped to, which I really like about him.
20:12And then the fact that even in the preseason, they were getting him into two wide receiver sets.
20:17So I'm not worried about like the Jaden Reed, Josh Downs of it all here.
20:22So Jacob, how would you order Carnell Tate, Concepcion, Lemon in like redraft?
20:25And do you think that they're all kind of like in the same tier right now?
20:30Yeah, in my heart, which is maybe what my rankings should say, I would agree with what you guys are saying is
20:36that I think it should be Casey one. I know I think that because Sam stole my take from me during pre-show discussions.
20:43But I think that everything you guys said is fantastic.
20:46I'll just add that Carnell Tate had the second lowest yards after the catch per reception among all round one receivers since 2016.
20:52The only one lower is Chris Alave. That stat does tend to translate.
20:56Obviously, Alave, really good player, but I don't think anyone's commending his yak skills.
21:00Casey Concepcion, really strong yak profile, like Sam mentioned, got carries.
21:03He was really used effectively on punt returns. He's an easy button player, which can thrive in a terrible offense.
21:09Carnell Tate, I think, really needed a functional offense.
21:12So I do have Tate ranked ahead because I guess I'm just kind of an ADP-based loser.
21:17But putting that aside today and talking about what I believe in my heart of hearts, probably Casey one.
21:22And then I guess I would go Tate. And I don't know, the Lemon stuff.
21:27If you're in a deeper bench, higher stakes league, I get the case for Lemon for sure.
21:31Best ball where you're just committing to him for the entire season.
21:35In a managed home league with five bench spots, I feel pretty confident that if you let a less in the weeds
21:41to prospects type league mate draft McKay Lemon, they will drop them and that you will get them on the waiver wire in week three or four anyway.
21:49So I would go with the guy who's going to run all the routes in the first week of the season.
21:55Yeah, I didn't pick McKay Lemon as one, but I have another Eagles related one in a minute.
22:01And the second Dontavian Wicks drops that pass in week one and McKay Lemon's in two wide receiver sets in the next
22:07week, we're gonna be like, what did we just do here?
22:10So I think that's a good one. And then also, I almost came to the table with Wondell Robinson's just going to outscore Carnell Tate.
22:17Maybe that's a full PPR take, but man, the preseason stuff really looks like they're trying to make Wondell Robinson a thing.
22:24Obviously, the Brian Dable. It's the only throws that Cam Ward was able to complete were five yard stick routes.
22:30But he couldn't even, in the preseason, those were so bad too.
22:33I mean, he was like, that's the only thing you can do.
22:36I mean, every time they try, they tried to run plays through Tate.
22:40They had that like inside slot fade for him.
22:43They had that big crosser for him. He didn't get, well, he actually ran a nice route on the inside fade.
22:49He got no separation on the crosser. Both of those throws were pretty brutal from Ward.
22:54So yeah, it's tough. Yeah. Okay. This is going to be an interesting class.
22:58I think one of these guys is really going to hit.
23:01I think I'm going to be rolling with Casey Concepcion and full PPR especially.
23:05All right, Jacob, back to you. All right. This is one that I've been arguing about with all of my various co-hosts all summer.
23:12I've found no allies on this, but I'm going to cook here for a couple of minutes, which is that I think
23:18the Chiefs are going to have a negative pass rate over expectation in 2026.
23:22To emphasize how kind of crazy this would be and why I've gotten so much opposition, the Chiefs have been top two
23:28in PROE every single year of the Patrick Mahomes era.
23:31Even last year, they were 3.9% above in PROE.
23:34All that being said, to make this sound a little bit less crazy, last year, the Jaguars were barely above zero.
23:40They were the sixth highest. So if the Chiefs came in right around the zero mark, they would still probably be one
23:46of the eight pass happiest teams in the NFL.
23:49The way that the NFL is trending, it's not that zero equals 16 anymore.
23:53You'll probably be top 10 with the PROE of zero.
23:56They have had some of the worst running backs, not some of them, by an absolute mile, had the worst running backs
24:02in the NFL during the Patrick Mahomes era. They lost Tareem Hunt for reasons halfway through Patrick Mahomes' season.
24:08And since then, they've been rolling out Damian Williams, Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, Le'Veon Bell, Daryl Williams, Isaiah Pacheco, Jarek McKinnon, Wash and reformed Kareem Hunt, and then Samaj Pirine.
24:16All of those individuals have been getting meaningful snaps.
24:18Sam's boy, Carson Steele. Don't want to leave him out.
24:21So to me, it's like, yeah, of course they were passing the ball a ton when you have one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.
24:29And you have that poo-poo platter of running backs as an alternative.
24:32Also, for a lot of those years, they had Tyree Kill.
24:36They had a good version of Travis Kelsey. And even after those guys left, Patrick Mahomes was able to kind of, or
24:42after Hill left and Kelsey started to decline, Mahomes was able to kind of get around that because he was so good.
24:48This year, Mahomes is going to be, I think, less mobile.
24:51He's clearly going to play, but I don't think that the ACL concerns are a 0% worry.
24:56Travis Kelsey, complete shell of his former self. And I think that we still vastly overestimate how good these receivers are based
25:03on their draft capital and based off of Rashi Rice's fantasy performance.
25:06If I was just to rank their pass catcher group in terms of pure real life skill, I think it's like 29th or 30th, maybe 31st.
25:14In particular, because their top two weapons are completely inept versus man coverage.
25:17And so if a team truly wants to game plan for this group, and they're going to go and pass, you know,
25:245-6% over expectation like they have during the Mahomes era, and you're getting this spread offense, teams will just sit on you
25:30and they'll press Rashi Rice, they'll press Xavier Worthy.
25:33You're not going to be able to get anything going.
25:36They finally have Kenneth Walker now on the team.
25:38That's the path to me to creating explosives where, first of all, you're going to get a ton of explosive runs from
25:45Kenneth Walker, but you're also going to actually have to force the team to defend the run.
25:49That's going to open up potentially the deep ball.
25:52That's how you get teams back into zone coverage that can actually allow these really limited receivers to potentially work off of that underneath.
25:59I just think with Eric the enemy coming over, he's been a high pass rate guy in the past too.
26:05Working under Ben Johnson, they were kind of a run operation that builds the passing game off of that.
26:10I hope for the chief's sake that this take is right because I don't think they're going to have a ton of
26:17offensive success if they continue this pass happy spread offense in 2026 with their personnel.
26:21The upshot of all of this is that it makes me extremely interested in drafting Ken Walker as much as humanly possible
26:27at the one-two turn, especially after my guy Ashton Jenti is no longer in the consideration set.
26:32Walker's become my biggest point of emphasis there. And then Rashi Rice, I do think tempting as he might be in full
26:39PPR, I think that the downside risk here is pretty catastrophic.
26:42He would be completely off my board in half PPR, redraft.
26:45And then in full PPR, I get it. I just think he has the potential to be a league losing pick probably
26:51a little bit more than he does a league winning pick.
26:55Yep. I don't think I've drafted Rashi Rice maybe more than like one set of like close to 200 drafts.
27:00And then I ranked Ken Walker 10th overall. I think this is a great take.
27:05Even last year, their neutral pass rate was 56%.
27:07I'll just look at that in 2022 is like 62%.
27:10Like there is, there's differences on where this offense is going.
27:13And I think that you bring Kenneth Walker in.
27:16Yeah. I hate to be boring and just do agree with you guys all the time, but Kenneth Walker's one of my highest drafted running backs.
27:23I think I have over 20% of them at the one, two turn.
27:27I've been clicking him over at Gentie. So that's kind of there.
27:31And yeah, I, I think I'm, I'm with you.
27:33I think they're going to shift to more of a run based approach this year.
27:38And like, let's be honest, like the, the Rasheed Rice targets, even, even last year.
27:42So like before this other knee surgery that he had right before he went to jail, he was at 7.4 yards per
27:48target in 2025, like any other wide receiver that's drafted in the top 30 of fantasy.
27:53Like that's a very inefficient yards per target. So if you get the, you know, more steady five yard carries with Kenneth
27:59Walker versus the 7.4 yards per target with Rasheed Rice.
28:02I mean, I'm not saying that's definitely going to carry over to next year, but it wasn't a particularly way efficient way
28:08to build off and the passing attack. And I think, yeah, the, the, some of the visuals you've gotten in Rasheed Rice
28:15in camp haven't been that promising either. So I'm with you guys on this take here.
28:19Yeah. Not a good sign of that. I might be able to run faster in a straight line than Rasheed Rice right now.
28:26I think the people do forget the second surgery happened right before the jail tweets.
28:30And we're like, oh, he's going to jail. It's like, well, the second surgery part is probably not a great sign either.
28:37Okay. So if we're not drafting Patrick Mahomes this year, I'll start with going with Kyler Murray is going to be a top 10 fantasy quarterback.
28:44And I can even argue that he can be a top eight one.
28:48If you just look at what Kurt Cousins did, Sam Darnold did, and then even like the Nick Mullins guys, those guys
28:54would have finished as top 10 quarterbacks this last season.
28:57And now there's like not that much of a difference between quarterback six and quarterback 16.
29:02That's kind of the point on why I've been drafting so much Kyler Murray.
29:06He's my highest drafted quarterback. Like most of my quarterbacks, like I draft, like, you know, around eight to 10% of, and
29:12then he's like the one guy that I'm actually taking a stand on.
29:16I think for Kyler, there's a couple of things.
29:19One, it's an awesome skill group that he's going to be throwing to obviously Justin Jefferson's the best receiver he's ever had.
29:25DeAndre Hopkins did have top 10 fantasy moments with Kyler Murray before.
29:29And then you have the offensive line, Derisaw and O'Neal.
29:31That's awesome for their left and right tackle. Donovan Jackson was a first rounder at left guard.
29:36Will Fries has been around forever. So the weak spot is the center, but you have, to me, four other offensive line
29:43in that when they're fully healthy, ready to go, those are above average players.
29:47Jordan Addison's kind of the forgotten man. He's been my second highest drafted wide receiver.
29:51I'm trying to target him because, you know, he's priced as the wide receiver 22.
29:55And in the first two seasons, when he didn't have JJ McCarthy, he finishes the wide receiver 22 and 23 and a half PPR points per game.
30:03Obviously he takes a hit in full PPR. He was running really pure, uh, in those two seasons on touchdowns.
30:09I'm not fully expecting that. Could he finish as the wide receiver 33 this year?
30:13Like I absolutely think that's on the table. I think it's a really cheap stack.
30:18I think this is always going to be a down the field passing offense.
30:22I think the KOC is a smart coach. He's going to get the most out of Kyler Murray.
30:27And I think we've kind of forget just how talented Kyler Murray is, especially now that he's fully healthy from that leg injury.
30:34So it's, it's the best cafeteria Kyler Murray's ever had.
30:36It's the best ownership he's ever had. It's the best offensive line receiver group that he's ever had dome environment.
30:42Uh, all those offenses in his division are going to be putting up crazy numbers.
30:47So Kyler Murray to Jordan Addison. That's how I went all the money this year.
30:51I like it. I think for me, like in, in best all, I have been like just on the margins, like spooked
30:57a little bit by the, of the Kyler Murray thing doesn't work.
31:01And he gets benched a stretch for, I don't even know if it's JJ McCarthy.
31:05This one, it sounds like Carson Wentz McCarthy's going to get traded or like in the next week.
31:10I mean, here's the thing with the wind stuff, right?
31:13It's like, if, if that's true and you draft Kyler, I mean, it'd be bad in best ball.
31:18It'd be kind of irrelevant and redraft like, Oh, whatever.
31:21Your last round quarterback got benched. Like you're fine.
31:24And when's this probably arguably just as good, if not better for Jefferson Madison.
31:28Yeah. But I also think you, you, you can't, you can't bench Kyler Murray for Carson Wentz this year.
31:33Like there's like no way like to me that would even happen.
31:37Like, you know what you have with Carson Wentz?
31:39Like the only reason, the only threat would be we have to see JJ McCarthy one more time.
31:45But the fact that he's already lost, uh, or he's losing, um, his, the second quarterback spot in, in, in camp tells
31:51me that he's going to get traded here in just a minute.
31:54And that's what I would do if I was a Vikings.
31:58Like, let's just get this kind of distraction headache away from us.
32:01And let's try to make Kyler Murray, uh, our version of Sam Darnold, but we're actually going to extend them after the season anyway.
32:08Yeah. I agree with that. And, and it's, it's nice for like, if you're, if you're one of the Kyler always gets
32:14hurt, bros, I guess like, Oh my God, am I ever relieved to have Wentz instead of JJ McCarthy in the mix?
32:21Yes, for sure. Okay. Uh, Sam, let's sneak back to you.
32:24Cool. I'm going to stick with the quarterback theme here and talk about another Konami code quarterback that I think is being
32:30undervalued Malik Willis, I think is going to finish as a QB one this year.
32:35He's currently being drafted in Yahoo leagues, at least as the quarterback 19.
32:38Uh, I just, I first wanted to start with like the incredible rushing, you know, floor and ceiling that Willis provides you in fantasy.
32:45This is a small sample, but it's, it's four, uh, you know, career starts the past four career starts before starts with
32:52the Packers, uh, the past couple of seasons, he went six for 41.
32:55Six for 73 and a touchdown 10 for 44, nine 60 and two touchdowns.
32:59So he's adding anywhere from four or five points.
33:02So that's a touchdown to 18, 20 points on the ground purely from rushing.
33:06And I think like this one honestly is like a little bit psychological where like the, the type of fantasy analyst who
33:12would be, uh, caping for Malik Willis has been emotionally scarred by the Justin Fields experience by the trades experience.
33:18Like these type of analysts are like scared of Willis.
33:21They're like, Oh, he's going to get bad. It's not going to work.
33:25Like I'm done with the, you know, quarterback who can't throw and he can only rush.
33:30So I think that's like really suppressing his ADP.
33:32And I'm going way back here for an historical example.
33:35Like I think in some people's heads, like Malik Willis is as bad of a passer as like Tim Tebow.
33:41Well, Tim Tebow, um, you know, way back in 2011 when he was the starter for the Broncos averaged 17 points per game.
33:47And that would have been equivalent to the quarterback 16 this year.
33:51I think Malik Willis is a better thrower than Tim Tebow.
33:54I don't think that's a hot take. Um, if you watched him this past couple of seasons, I think you have to
34:00at least acknowledge his ceiling is, is higher as a passer.
34:04So I'm going to just like bank the rushing floor and what if he's as good throwing the ball as he was,
34:10uh, the Packers the past couple of seasons. I also think like the receiving court, yeah, it's, it's terrible, but I do
34:16think having Devon A-chain there as a pass catcher is like a little bit underrated.
34:21He's an awesome weapon out of the backfield and is almost used as a slot receiver, uh, type type player in certain formations.
34:27The same, some of the same, um, offensive coaching staff that used A-chain there last year in Miami.
34:33So I don't think that's going away. So anyways, I, I totally get how it, it can fail.
34:38Willis, you know, doesn't have good wide receivers. He's a very small sample, um, you know, success as a quarterback, but I'm
34:44shooting for the ceiling with a Konami code rusher.
34:47And if it hits, he can like crush the guys that are going near him.
34:51And even the guys that are going ahead of him, Stafford golf, Jordan, love, et cetera.
34:56These guys don't have anything close to the rushing ceiling that Willis provides.
34:59So I'm taking a lot of stabs on him this year.
35:03Agree. I think that it's also fun because you can just throw a couple of darts, uh, and you know, 18th round to, to stack them up.
35:10Um, and then with the Justin Fields thing, there was like, we had very concrete evidence for years and years that Justin Fields was a bad quarterback.
35:18I'm not saying Malik Willis is going to be good, but at least you can make an argument that over the last
35:25three seasons, he's been the quarterback one in EPA per play quarterback one in completion percentage, overexpected quarterback 11 and success rate out of 79 qualifiers.
35:32It's on 159 plays, but at least there's like some evidence that like, maybe he could be good.
35:37Uh, and not, I think the inverse is, I think more important.
35:41We don't know for sure that he's bad. And we've kind of had that for the Justin Fields sample.
35:46I do think the offensive line is something that everyone just assumes like one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
35:53I think that's like complete fake news. I would say it's like closer to league average.
35:57Their entire left side is above average to elite.
36:00Uh, you have some weak spots on the right side, but at least those guys were drafted high.
36:05And, uh, like you said, slow it was there for the last season.
36:09And, um, yeah, Malik Willis could also, you know, scramble around some.
36:12So I think that the right side of the offensive line, go run behind Patrick Paul, uh, and you'll pick up a first down.
36:19So, uh, it's hard to like move him up past other quarterbacks, uh, in my rankings, but I still do draft him a lot.
36:26Uh, and I'm okay kind of punting off the position, kind of double tapping it.
36:30I'll do Kyler Murray, Malik Willis and like Fernando Mendoza or something like that really late this year.
36:36Uh, it's a, it's a really deep class and that's exactly why I've not been drafting, uh, as much Josh Allen as I typically do.
36:43But yeah, I'm locked in with that last point, like, especially in standard one quarterback home leagues.
36:48Like I, I wrote up my home league draft guide this year and I was like, I really struggled to come up
36:54with a scenario where I would take an early quarterback unless like they're falling all like a round or two past ADP
37:01because yeah, I don't think I even have Willis ranked that high, but I think he's a completely viable quarterback option along
37:07with guy I mentioned earlier, Bo Nix, along with the guy Hayden just mentioned Kyler Murray, along with several other guys and
37:13you take two of them with your last two picks.
37:16I think you're going to be completely fine. Yep.
37:19And again, like the best ballification of fantasy content, I think makes people concerned about whether your last round redraft quarterback gets benched in week 13.
37:26And that is just so relevant. Like literally who cares?
37:29Um, it's like, you know, if, if Malik Willis does get benched, it's like, whatever you, you drop him and you pick
37:35up like Baker Mayfield, who the donkey in your league that drafted Josh Allen in round two took us a backup and
37:42then immediately realized that was a bad idea and dropped him by week four.
37:46He probably will be. Yeah, exactly. He probably will be.
37:49All right. I think I've lost track. Is it Jacob now?
37:52Sure. I'll, I'll let one rip here. So this is like, I started with man, Steve golden, who was a, not my guy in the past.
37:59This is another big time. Not my guy. Uh, Deandre Swift.
38:03Um, this is a guy that I've been extremely critical of over the course of his career.
38:08When he was drafted higher, I think he has serious deficiencies as a rusher.
38:12And I wasn't sufficiently in on him last year because I was concerned that, you know, Ben Johnson had this guy and
38:18basically use like Jamal Williams and Justin Jackson over him because of these various deficiencies.
38:22But I guess Ben Johnson like made lemonade out of lemons because he used the Andre Swift last year where the Deandre
38:29Swift always should have been used last year. Uh, Deandre Swift had, uh, a success rate, um, number six among all qualifying
38:35running backs on zone rushes, 36 on gap rushes, way higher success rate on outside runs and inside runs.
38:40Conversely, Kyle Manunga way higher success rate on gap runs, inside runs, much lower on zone.
38:45So he managed to find a way to kind of use Kyle Manunga as like a meat shield basically to take some
38:51of the, between the tackle stuff that Swift has typically struggled with or struggled to stay durable while using, and then was
38:58able to design a really, really fun game plan around Deandre Swift's actual strength, making sure he was using him on all
39:04these screen passes, some creative pass game work outside of that.
39:07And then of course, a lot of those outside zone runs, toss plays, all of course, around big 58, Darnell Wright, our
39:14most favorite players in the league go Vols. Um, Deandre Swift last year, like I think people view this situation as Swift
39:20is this kind of boring veteran and Manunga is maybe like an ascendant player.
39:24That's often how these things go. It's just not how this looks to me.
39:28Swift had a better rush over expectation percentage than Kyle Manunga, which by the way, Swift had the highest in the entire NFL last year in that stat.
39:36Uh, he had a higher miss tackles force per attempt, had a higher explosive run rate, had more rush yards over expectation
39:43for per attempt, was graded higher by PFF, higher yards per route run, higher target share, higher route rate.
39:48Like almost every single advanced stat, Deandre Swift was mogging Kyle Manunga, who was around seven prospect, who I think is pretty limited.
39:55So I think that the only reason why it kind of got as close as it did is because Ben Johnson realized
40:01like a little bit of less is more with Swift.
40:04I'd rather use him as a 60 to 65% guy and get the most out of them than as an 80% guy.
40:10But you look ahead to this year where Swift's ADP is right now, solidly in the mid to late fourth round.
40:16Um, he's kind of viewed as this dead zone back.
40:19I would argue he has a lot more explosiveness and efficiency upside and a lot more receiving upside than each of Kyron
40:26Williams, Javante Williams, Travis Etienne, David Montgomery. And then he also has a lot more role security than Bucky Irving, facial tootin cam, scataboo Trevion Henderson.
40:33Uh, and certainly a lot more receiving upside than Quinshawn Jenkins, Janarian price plays in a great offense.
40:38So, um, Deandre Swift to me is going to be a top 12 running back this year.
40:43He's going to be the highest scoring running back of anyone in the dead zone.
40:48So I'll say that it's like basically after Jeremiah Love and Brees Hall come off the board until, uh, we start drafting Patriots running backs.
40:55I think Swift's gonna be the highest scoring of all those guys.
40:58It's such a great take. I keep moving up, uh, him closer to like the Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, Kyron Williams tier.
41:05Like there really is not that much of a difference between those guys.
41:08And last year he was the RB 16 so that he would have already paid off this price tag that he's currently at.
41:15Uh, and that was when he was splitting time.
41:18We never really talked about the inverse contingent upside.
41:20What happens if Kyle, uh, Kyle, a nun guy goes down, uh, Deandre Swift.
41:24I mean, he would seriously probably be right next to like a Martin Hampton and like chase Brown and those guys, uh,
41:31as like a second round value, if not even more than that, depending on how the bears do.
41:36And, um, and then guys that banged up right now, it seems like he's questionable for early early parts of the season.
41:42You never know. Um, and Jake, I think it's a good point.
41:46Like Deandre Swift, like a five-star recruit is probably a lot better than like the, I just looked at it.
41:51Kyle, man, I was the 160th, uh, number of running back in his recruit.
41:56And classic, there's probably a pretty big difference here.
41:58Um, and I think we should be trying to gobble up all the bears.
42:02Um, the, whenever I draft like a Puka Jamar chase team, uh, like three, four, I'm like begging for a running back to fall to me.
42:10So, and Deandre Swift's like most notably been that guy.
42:13So like sometimes Jacobs will fall, but Deandre Swift, I feel so much more comfortable with him than the Tootin and all those types.
42:20Like those guys have similar, uh, uh, ceilings as Swift, but Swift's floor just to me seems so much safer.
42:25Like then the next group of running backs behind them.
42:28You mentioned Tootin, like Tootin's upside case is basically Deandre Swift, right?
42:32It's like a, a like explosive back who's going to be ideally in the 60 to 65% half of a timeshare.
42:38Um, but probably loses some like between the tackles work to Chris Rodriguez.
42:41Like I don't really see a world in which Tootin's upside is meaningfully higher than Swift's.
42:46It's just the upside of feeling good about a Tootin hit is a lot higher than feeling good about a Deandre Swift.
42:52And that's important. Um, so I don't want, I don't want to discount that, but I do think that's the key difference
42:59between feelings, feelings and fantasy slimes get overrated. And I think it's, uh, Hayden, you and Josh do the show every year
43:05that it's like the best boring picks in fantasy or something like that.
43:09Deandre Swift makes a list, right? Like he's, he's been around a while, like the one out there who's proclaiming he's the
43:15best running back in the league, but he's just matured.
43:18Like I think each of the past couple of years as a rusher, just gotten a little bit better, a little bit
43:25better vision, very reliable in the passing game. And he still has that, at least on, on tape to me, that explosive
43:31athleticism that made people fall in love with him as a prospect.
43:34And you combine that with the bills offense. I mean, I, I kind of see it as like an arbitrage James cook
43:41play, like he's not going to be a workhorse in the traditional sense.
43:44You probably can't tell a story about him getting massive volume, but he's explosive play.
43:49A guy on an offense that could be really, really good.
43:52Yeah. He is, man. I really hope we find a guy that we disagree on because people are probably getting annoyed by this, but Swift.
43:59Yeah. I same take as you guys fourth round.
44:02Um, I'm all in on it. I will say Swift becomes a lot more fun when you're drafting him and he's like,
44:08he bounces it outside and it works. Like he is objectively a fun player to watch.
44:13Could he be frustrating if you like really, uh, are a nerd?
44:16Sure. But like, if you draft them and you just want to like go like full, like IQ 100, bro, like he's
44:23actually a very fun player, uh, to watch. He doesn't have to bounce anymore because they never hand him inside anymore.
44:29Yeah. He doesn't have to bounce. He only gets outside runs now.
44:32Yeah, exactly. That's a good point. Uh, I'll piggyback on a bears take here.
44:36Roma Duns is going to finish as a top 20 wide receiver.
44:40And if I was bolder than that, I could, let's just say 15.
44:43Let's have some fun. Uh, he had that mid season injury.
44:47There was some, obviously some drops that Roma Duns had.
44:50He's not the perfect player, but I do think people forget just how talented this guy is and how involved Ben Johnson made him early on.
44:57Um, so he was the wide receiver 18 in per game usage.
45:00He was a wide receiver 22 in targets per game at over seven of them.
45:05That was when he was competing with DJ more.
45:07Uh, obviously Colson Loveland's coming on. Of course, Luther burden is coming on, but Roma Duns is not some like static X receiver.
45:14Who's just only going to be on the sideline.
45:17They use him in motion plenty in the preseason.
45:19For example, they leaked him out on play action to get him built up, uh, in space too.
45:24So he's not going to necessarily be like a screen guy, but if this offense is going to play fast enough, pass
45:31the ball enough, and they're going to probably have to pass because of how bad their defense is and how good that division is.
45:38I think that people kind of discount that Roma Duns is like, uh, he's probably better and not the like manufacturer touches,
45:44but like the schemed up touches for Roma Duns.
45:47And he has like the chance and the, I think the athletic ability to take that next step.
45:52If Caleb Williams and, and Rome can get on the same page against zone coverage in particular, uh, I think there's a
45:58much higher ceiling that people are kind of bringing on with Roman news.
46:02So he, he's probably like the least fun guy of the past catchers to talk about.
46:07And I think that's just because he wasn't like awesome down the stretch coming back from that injury.
46:12But before that he was, he was really strong and he also was a top, uh, first round pick on top of things.
46:19So, uh, I think Roma Duns is better at football than we're giving him credit for.
46:23And I think that he's got the potential to be a whole lot better.
46:27If he can round out his game, he and Caleb just got to get on the same page, but year three together,
46:34I think this is when we kind of start seeing the final four.
46:37I, I like that one. And yeah, some, sometimes I feel like people are like intentionally burying their head in the sand
46:44with the Roma Duns, a upside case. Like to me, it's not that hard to understand.
46:48You look at weeks one through eight last year before he started showing up in the court with the foot.
46:54And I think is a real, like people say that's arbitrary doing splits.
46:58I think it's a real thing that this foot injury derailed a season.
47:02So that one weeks one through eight, he had 26% target share, 23% targets per route run with a pretty high a dot over that stretch.
47:09He was the wide receiver nine in, in points per game at 15 and a half.
47:14And I think, you know, I don't, I don't pretend to exactly know, you know, I'm going to talk about another bear
47:20bear's player here in a little bit. I think there's high upside with all of these guys, but I think it's like
47:26clearly one of these situations where it's not like the lions where there's an Amon Ross St.
47:31Brown, who's like locked in with the 30% target share as the wide receiver one.
47:36There's an opening here for somebody to come and get that top role.
47:39And I think a dude, they has, has a good case for it.
47:43So he has been a target for me there as well.
47:46I'll disagree with something for the first time on, on the show so far.
47:50Um, I, I just, I never liked Roman Dunse.
47:53I thought he was an extremely overrated prospect, um, coming out, um, every four year wide receiver.
47:58Um, like he, he came out at a time where a lot of people were really excited to say like, we can draft seniors.
48:05Now declare status doesn't matter at all. Um, this is like the bet, you know, or, or either saying, okay, all these
48:11other seniors were not that great, but he's the best of them.
48:15I never got that case. If you looked at top 16 pick, uh, senior declare wide receivers for the decade leading up to when Roman Dunse was drafted.
48:23Um, the only ones with a lower peak season yards per team pass temp were Mike Williams, Kevin White, John Ross, Roman
48:29Dunse had an overall less productive profile than guys like, well, clearly Devonta Smith and Chris Alave, but also guys like Corey
48:35Davis, Corey Coleman, Devonta Parker, Jahan Dotson. Like I never felt like the analytical profile on a Dunse was remotely compelling.
48:42Um, the film bros loved Roman Dunse coming out.
48:44And so I felt like I have like given them a lot of credence from a combination of, okay, this guy, I got a ton of draft capital.
48:52All the film analysts in the world are really high on this guy.
48:56Like he's paired up with Caleb Williams, ambiguous offense.
48:59Like I'm going to take some shots, even if he's not like my guy and like, maybe I should keep doing that
49:05for a third year in a row. I totally get that the early season stuff was impressive.
49:10I guess my pushback on it would be Luther Byrd and Colson Lovelland were rookies who dealt with injuries in camp and
49:16were barely a part of the offense when Roman Dunse was cooking.
49:20My personal opinion is that if those guys have gotten integrated into the offense later and Roman Dunse never gotten hurt, I
49:26think he has a lot of his role would have been scaled back anyway.
49:30He was out there running routes against Olamide Zaccheaus, Cole Komet, DJ Moore, who like, I think is in the eye of
49:36the beholder, depending on what you think DJ Moore is capable of at this point.
49:41I think it was an impressive stretch for sure.
49:43I think he was obviously better than those guys.
49:46I projected him going into last year to outscore more.
49:49I just feel like when I watch him, I don't know, maybe I'm not as sophisticated as the film community.
49:55I'm probably not. I don't think he's as dynamic of a mover compared to like some of the top upper echelon guys in the league.
50:02If I'm looking at who do I want to get the ball in the hands of that's going to provide explosiveness, I'm going burden every single time.
50:10If I'm going, who do I think is the most reliable offensive weapon on the team?
50:14I think that's Colston Loveland. I just think he's more reliable at the catch point.
50:19And I think you can use him more creatively because you can get him steamed up on the linebackers because you can
50:25play him in line versus Roman Dunse is going to be consistently going as number one corner.
50:30So like if I'm looking at the offense and thinking, okay, who makes the most sense to design the most number of
50:36first reads for Rome comes third on the list for me, um, zoomed out perspective.
50:41Like I get it. Everyone is a little bit uncertain.
50:44He's just is a guy that for me is like always been a, not my guy going up against two of my favorite players in the league.
50:51I already feel like I'm less into burden than I want to be because I'm so into Loveland.
50:57Um, so it's hard for me to then find a lot of room in my heart for Roman Dunse.
51:02That being said, like, you know, we were at a main event draft last night where he fell below ADP and I
51:08didn't advocate for taking him because he wasn't my highest rank player, but I almost hope to get outvoted just to have
51:15a hedge book because I totally see how this works.
51:18Um, so I, I definitely get the upside case.
51:20Um, but I'm, I'm glad we could disagree for once because we're probably not a big part of my draft plans.
51:26Yeah. I think, I think what you just laid out is I think the consensus kind of take on him.
51:32My only counter to all that is, uh, we have on off splits and these can be very dangerous, but with Luther
51:38burden, when Roma duns, a was not on the field, not game, which like not on the field, uh, 3.7 yards per
51:45route, 20%, uh, targets per hour run. When Roma duns, a was on the field, Luther burdens targets per route was under 20%.
51:51His yards per route was 1.1. Obviously the noise is in the yards per route, uh, stuff.
51:56But, um, I do think that Roma duns is not better than Luther burden in the manufactured touch game, but he's not like way, way, way worse.
52:04And I think that in terms of reliability and those, uh, the way you're framing that, I think that Roma duns was
52:10clearly second in each one of those. Uh, and I think that's enough, uh, in this offense.
52:15Yeah. Let's keep it going with the bears discussion.
52:18And my, my take here is I think Colson Loveland is going to finish as the tight end one this season above Brock Bowers, above Trey McBride.
52:26I think obviously this, this is a projection. So let's, let's sort of walk through it.
52:30I think number one, I think if you look at games where he actually was a full-time starter as a rookie, his production was awesome.
52:38Again, this is a small sample, but in six weeks where he ran over 70% of the routes, he averaged 18 and a half PPR points per game.
52:46He eclipsed 20 in four out of six of those games and that scoring, uh, threshold would be right in line with
52:52what Trey McBride did year as the tight end one.
52:55I think also heading into year two, the book has been cleared a little bit for, for target competition.
53:00Uh, you no longer have DJ more there, you know, say about more as a talent last season, but he was on
53:07the field a bunch and clearly I think a better target earner than the guys they're going to replace him with, which
53:13I think in, uh, so in their, their base packages, I think it's either going to be 12 personnel where Cole commit
53:20is going to be out there either running routes raised low likelihood of being targeted or just staying into block.
53:25And then in three wide receiver sets, I think you're going to have a sacrificial third wide receiver out there.
53:31Zavian Thomas running wind sprints, maybe it's a Cleef Raymond, I believe is, is the other guy they have there if I'm not mistaken.
53:38So it's really guys that project to earn no targets, not to even mention, you know, 13 personnel, I think is going to be a thing here.
53:46We're going to have Sam route on the field, a rookie tight end.
53:50Who's not going to earn targets. So I think the ability for this thing to really create on the top three guys, I think is really high.
53:57I think also was someone I loved as a prospect.
54:00I loved his ability to, to win downfield extremely efficient per round basis as a prospect was drafted really high.
54:06I think it, I think the question for him as a prospect was like his per route efficiency is so good.
54:12I wonder why they're not scaling this thing to more routes.
54:15Well, when you have JJ McCarthy at quarterback, this thing makes a little bit more sense.
54:20Now I might also run my offense through, you know, Blake Corum and, and just punishing teams on the run instead of
54:26letting JJ McCarthy think that part makes, makes a little more sense.
54:30And yeah, I think like, you know, this one I'll, I'll scale back from, I think my other takes, I actually would take Concepcion over this one.
54:38Like I am not literally drafting Loveland ahead of the two other guys.
54:41I just tell you he provides later, but I think you compare him to these two other guys.
54:47I mean, these are bottom feeding offenses. Look, any region of implied, you know, points per game, calls and Raiders are going to be bottom five bears.
54:54They're more middle on the pack, but like the ceiling of them being a top five offense, I think is fully there.
55:01I love betting on play callers like Ben Johnson, who just produced year after year.
55:05I love betting on another leap for Caleb Williams.
55:08He had a massive leap from his rookie year to his second season.
55:11I think we could see this thing leap up again, if he can improve his accuracy a little bit.
55:17And I just, I just love this of betting on the bears.
55:20Yeah. I think if the bears are going to be a top three, top five offense, which I think is totally in the range of outcomes this year.
55:28I think that Colson Loveland could end up matching, you know, Brock Bowers and McBride.
55:33He's not going to get the same exact volume in terms of like receptions, but in half PPR, I mean, he, he
55:39can legitimately have seven more touchdowns than, than those other guys in some situations.
55:43And I, I think Colson Loveland is like just as good as those guys are.
55:48Like he, I think he's an incredible player. I think there's an argument that by the end of this year, he'll be
55:54consensus better because I think he's actually a better pure route runner than Trey McBride.
55:58And he's a way better blocker than Brock Bowers.
56:01And that matters a little bit because that means he gets more of those advantageous linebacker matchups than Brock Bowers can.
56:07Cause you can play him in line. You can play him off the line.
56:11You can do a lot of fun stuff with Loveland.
56:14Um, he was my favorite individual player. If we take out positional value in the entire craft class that year, I'm a massive, massive fan of Loveland.
56:22Um, Sherman always brings up JJ McCarthy, which is a great point.
56:25Um, it fails to mention that JJ McCarthy is by a mile, the best quarterback he played with at Michigan.
56:31Like imagine like the year after JJ McCarthy left, they started, uh, Davis Warren, Jack Tuttle, Alex Orgy.
56:36It was a disaster. I mean, they were running the ball.
56:39Like it was no tomorrow. Um, I think Loveland is, is absolutely unreal.
56:43And if you're looking for optimism for all the bears guys, like, um, you know, and to give, uh, Hayden some, some
56:49points back on the Rome stuff after I disagreed a little bit there, you get, I think a lot of people focusing
56:56on the top line of three really talented players, you know, too many mouths to feed, um, and all that stuff.
57:02I mean, first of all, when you bet on one, you can abandon whatever your positive priors are on the other, like
57:08you can entertain the range of outcomes when you draft a Loveland or a Rome that maybe burden, you know, the bear case is right on him.
57:16And then the next draft, you go and take Luther burdens.
57:19Okay. Well, what if the bear case is right on Roma dunes day?
57:23Like all these players have individual ranges of outcomes.
57:25You can play off of each other. You don't have to lock in the ceiling on each.
57:30And more importantly, I think is just how condensed the offense is as a whole.
57:35I think the fantasy community often like overemphasizes sometimes the top line talent and under emphasizes the degree of rotation or the
57:41degree of like alternative tertiary guys that all factor into the mix.
57:45Um, like the lions are, are of course the, the obvious corollary here where they have like four skill players, the running
57:51back and the three pass catchers that they throw to, and they don't throw to anyone else.
57:56And so then you also add in, like we saw last year, you take one guy out of that mix.
58:02It just reallocates to the other guys, right? Sam Laporta goes down last year and it's volume spike for JMO volume spike for Gibbs.
58:09They're not throwing a Slaw or Tom Kennedy. And so any of burden Rome or level in this time, you're just going
58:15to see even more work for the other two, because I don't think it's going to be the Kalief Raymond show all of a sudden this offense.
58:23So, um, I I'm super excited about that. I think a lot of the play volume stuff last year that is unsustainable
58:29on paper for the bears will prove to be more sustainable than you think because their defense is so bad.
58:35And because Ben Johnson is so aggressive on like these fourth down decisions that he's just going to want to sustain drives.
58:41He's going to want to score points. It's an exciting team to bet into.
58:45And, um, I'm, I'm overexposed aggressively to Loveland and, um, definitely think there's upside for all the bears.
58:50I have him in McBride kind of like back to back in my rankings.
58:54I never have to like, I'm never on the clock and I have to like make that decision, but I don't draft
59:01that much Trey McBride just knowing that I have a chance to grab, uh, Loveland and the following rounds.
59:06All right, Jacob, I think this is your last one here.
59:10What do you got? It is, um, this is probably, um, well, not probably this is a take.
59:15I absolutely don't think will happen. It's the take that.
59:18I just think the market is pricing in has like a 1% to happen.
59:22And I'm just going to add a zero. I'm going to say it's a 10% chance to happen.
59:27Um, which is the Trey Harris is the chargers wide receiver one by the end of this season.
59:32Um, this is less of a draft Trey Harris and seasonal league points because I don't think that's necessary.
59:38I'm drafting the crap out of him in best ball or in deeper high stakes stuff, but it's more of a, I'm
59:44really high on the chargers offense and yet significantly below ADP on both lad McConkie and Quinton Johnston.
59:49And this is kind of why point. Um, so here we go first off with Harris, one of the weirdest college profiles
59:55that I've ever evaluated, um, had over five. That's that's correct.
59:59By the way, over five yards per route run.
60:01His final season of college. And you can quite reasonably say, oh, it's super gimmicky because he was this red shirt senior
60:08who played in this area offense and he put up a bunch of his stats against really crappy teams.
60:13And then he got injured part of the season.
60:16I get all of that, but that is fully caveated in.
60:19What I would say is that if he ran like 200 more routes over the rest of the season and was terrible
60:25on them and earned like one yard per route run for the rest of the season, he still would have easily cleared
60:32three yards per route run for the season, which would have been remarkably impressive.
60:36Um, also not that surprising to me that like a converted quarterback who played at Louisiana tech and then an air raid
60:42offense would not be ready to jump in contribute a ton right away in an offense where he was the wide receiver
60:48for on a team with Superbowl aspirations. So I don't hold the lock of playing time and time against him.
60:54And that factors into my next point, which is people have brought up the 1.10 yards per run as a rookie.
61:00That's obviously bad. Um, but Harris basically didn't play at all the first five weeks when the Chargers passing offense was viable.
61:07He saw over 16 routes for the first time in week six, the second half of the season, everyone was terrible on
61:13the Chargers passing offense from Wixie week six onwards.
61:15Harris had a 1.11 yards per route run. QJ was only at 1.17 lad was at 1.32.
61:20So all of these guys were basically equally ineffective.
61:23And I think Harris gets punished for it most because his playing time occurred, um, most frequently when the Chargers just couldn't
61:29block anyone and Herbert was thrown for like 130 yards a game.
61:33Um, he's also, I think their best walking wide receiver, uh, Mike McDaniels typically had a high level of wide receiver interchange and rotation.
61:40Even in the peak of Tyree kill and Jill and Waddle's career, they were living more in the eighties and route rates than like in the upper nineties.
61:48And so I expect there to be some even distribution of routes here.
61:52And then I think the off season has gotten really well for him.
61:55Harris has drawn really strong reviews at camp. Um, I was listening to the locked on Chargers pod yesterday.
62:01They had him as the top offensive standout. Um, and then lad and QJ think there's a lot of questions about them.
62:07Like we've heard a lot of good stuff about them at camp.
62:11Lad was a partial routes, college player. Awesome as a rookie, but then got scaled up over 600 routes last year.
62:17It's catch rate fell dramatically. Yards per reception fell dramatically.
62:20Hargers per run fell dramatically. I think there's like some level of question to how locked in he is.
62:25And QJ is QJ like talented dude also has a lot of really obvious flaws.
62:29Last point I'd make and why I've gotten so much more excited about Harris late in the off season is like this
62:36tight end stuff is kind of wild to me, but I think it's really, really beneficial for Trey Harris.
62:41Um, if somehow you watch this show and you're not following along, Rondé Gadsden went from the presumed tight end one, who
62:48was a major pass catching force to a guy that I don't even know if he's going to be active in week one.
62:54Uh, and they apparently want to play Charlie Collar on all of the tight end snaps.
62:59I'm very bearish that that means a whole lot of targets for Charlie Collar.
63:03My view of it is they probably want to play a lot of 11 personnel.
63:07They just want the tight end to be there for blocking purposes because they like their three receivers and they want to throw to them more often.
63:15All of that, I think, rebounds to Trey Harris's benefit where you can allocate tight end target share to wide receiver target share.
63:22So obviously, do I think he's a better player than Lad McConkie?
63:25Like, no. Um, do I think he is likely to be the wide receiver one?
63:30No. I just think this is like a legitimately ambiguous room with like three talented but flawed players that Mike McDaniels getting
63:36a chance to work with for the first time.
63:39While the ADP has it set like almost identical to the Broncos, right?
63:42Where it's like Lad goes where Waddle goes. QJ goes where Sutton goes.
63:46And Trey Harris goes where Pat Bryant goes. I see more of a ambiguity in this Chargers room that makes me want
63:52to play it through the later guy in like a best ball format.
63:56Keep him as a watch list guy and probably look other directions with my early round picks ahead of Lad and ahead of QJ.
64:03So I'm not drafting Trey Harris, but I do agree that his presence, I think, does go overlooked for what Lad McConkie
64:09and QJ are going to be doing this year.
64:12If McDaniels just does, uh, Mike McDaniels does the exact same thing he's done previously.
64:16They've been like number 29 in three wide receiver set snaps.
64:20So if, if, if Trey Harris gets out there at the expense of Lad McConkie and QJ because they want to rotate
64:26those guys, that is a big deal in terms of just like total snaps and routes run for Lad McConkie.
64:32So I love Lad McConkie. I have only 3% of him because of players like some of the running backs we talked about, like the DeAndre Swift.
64:40I'll draft Josh Jacobs and those guys over him.
64:42Jalen Waddle, those, uh, those kind of wide receivers.
64:45Because I do think there's a chance that Lad McConkie is like an 84% route player.
64:49Uh, and then QJ is like 76%. And then Trey Harris gets out there, uh, at their expense.
64:55They could be a three wide receiver set or three tight end set team on occasion as well.
65:00So, uh, yeah, I think Trey Harris is like just good enough to be annoying.
65:04I'm not sure if he's good enough to like be relevant in fantasy.
65:08I think he's gonna have some spike weeks. I think him versus like Ryan Floreno and stuff.
65:13I think that Trey Harris, uh, as the better number three, I think does make sense.
65:17Uh, but I've been kind of taking the Trey Harris stuff as like, what if Lad McConkie just like does not run
65:24nearly as many routes as the other guys in round four.
65:27And that would be how he does not pay off, uh, as like a top 20 ish fantasy wide receiver.
65:33And then he's more of like a frustrating wide receiver 32.
65:36Sam, what do you think? That's, that's more how I'm looking at it too.
65:40Like he's Harris himself for me is best ball only, but it affects the other guys.
65:45Yeah. I haven't been drafting a lot of risks.
65:47I think for me, I think, uh, Jacob made, it made a good case.
65:51Uh, I just think there's like, if I'm drafting for like clear bets on early season that I could plug in my
65:58starting lineup right away, I might look in the direction of like Devon on the saints, Keenan Allen on the Colts.
66:04And then if I'm shooting for like more true upside, I have options like Travis Hunter, some of these rookie, uh, Jacoby lane, Zachariah branch.
66:11And I know Jacob probably isn't saying, you know, draft Harris, draft over these guys.
66:15That's not the crux of his point, but I just think I go in different directions and get, get more.
66:21I also think like the, the Colar point is an ending one.
66:24I just think that like rotational, there's going to be a lot of different formations that McDaniel is going to use where it's Colar in line 11.
66:32And then a Rondé Gadsden is a slot wide receiver.
66:35I think even Brennan Thompson has had a good camp and he could rotate in.
66:39Shout out my guy, Brennan Thompson. Dude, Brennan Thompson, by the way, was absolutely roasting everybody in the sec.
66:45Uh, and it's like one of the fastest guys in the NFL.
66:48Like I think, I think he's very interesting. I, I, he's probably not going to get enough snaps, but like, I think
66:55they should use Brennan Thompson for 10 routes per game and see what the hell happens.
66:59Like he faced so much press man coverage against like the top corners and was just blowing by them routinely.
67:05It's like kind of one, a one trick pony situation, but like his trick is pretty awesome.
67:10Uh, in a Justin Herbert offense. Yeah. People always loved to bring up, uh, I don't know why I'm saying people.
67:16Cause he's on the show. It's Sam Sherman. He always brings up how impressive, you know, people, he's like people that denigrate
67:23Pierce's target earning, but actually a 17% targets per run on an eight odd of 20.
67:27It's like actually pretty good. And I think it's a fair point.
67:31Obviously this is college, not the pros, but Brennan Thompson, 23% targets per run on an eight odd of 18.4 in the sec last year.
67:38Um, so I guess, I guess Sam was so upset with the plagiarism.
67:42He left the show, um, but Brennan, Brennan Thompson.
67:44Um, like obviously he's not draftable, uh, in, in fantasy right now, but, um, for my, for my dynasty people, he's like
67:51my number one dude for late round sleep. Yeah.
67:53I can totally see them getting rid of like huge a after the next season or two.
67:58I forget when his contract is up. And then all of a sudden like Brennan Thompson starting to matter a little bit more.
68:05I thought his tape was like really fun and very unique player.
68:08But, uh, once you go to Mike McDaniel, I do think that's awesome.
68:12And he was, I remember the video, they were very excited that he, um, had fallen to them.
68:17All right. My last one is probably the one I believe in the least, but I think Jalen hurts is going to
68:23be the best like elite quarterback value, if you will.
68:26And I'll say that he's going to be the highest advanced rate quarterback this season.
68:31He goes in a range where the running backs and wide receivers, I just don't love.
68:35And I'm kind of forced into drafting one of these elite quarterbacks.
68:39Obviously Jalen hurts has been a quarterback, uh, one quarterback to before, I think over the last four seasons, he's actually the
68:45quarterback to, uh, just ahead of Lamar Jackson. Um, and I think that there's a chance that he can go back to that.
68:52I'm pretty, um, I'm looking into the, the, the new, uh, play caller and it seems like things are going, uh, it's
68:58a little bit inconsistent, but I do think that what they're trying to do, like I saw like Makai lemon leak out
69:05of the backfield for a touchdown and practice. They're using more three wide receiver sets.
69:09They're making the offensive line feel a little bit more comfortable.
69:12Lane Johnson in particular has talked about how it's just gonna be easier for them.
69:16It's gonna be less static, uh, at the skill group, but the offensive lines a little bit more calm down.
69:22I think all that stuff is good for Jalen hurts.
69:25I think more important than all of that is the fact that he's lost some weight is a very clear signal that
69:31he's going to run around a whole lot more.
69:34Uh, he's averaged 29, uh, yards per game on scrambles, design runs and zone read runs in 2021 to 2024.
69:40That was at 45. So that's a one and a half point difference right there, but it also allows them to pick up more first downs.
69:47Like, I think that's just like a promising thing for him.
69:50It sounds like they're going to still do the, the tush push as they absolutely should.
69:55He actually lost some tush pushes to like Dallas Goddard on the little, uh, kind of like variants where like those things could go back to Jalen hurts.
70:03And then I think what's most interesting about Jalen hurts.
70:06We've never been able to do this really is you can draft Jalen hurts kind of in that, like I would say
70:12the dead zone of just all fantasy drafts and then stack them up after with someone like Makai lemon, who I think
70:19is an awesome pick, uh, when we're talking about upside cases.
70:22And I think Dallas Goddard is very relevant when you're looking at like projections versus his ADP.
70:27So I think just kind of a dead zone I'm building my teams.
70:31And I, I think that his situation versus like Jaden Daniels is like, there's like no, it's like a no contest.
70:37Joe burrow versus Jalen hurts over years and years.
70:39It's leaned, uh, Jalen hurts. Uh, and he does seem like one of the guys where, uh, when everyone's kind of kicking
70:46him when he's down, he like some way battles back.
70:49So, uh, I think it's a very fun click just like in the context of the entire ADP landscape.
70:54Um, so I've been doing like a lot of like Jalen hurts, Kyler Murray teams and that quarterback.
70:59And this is not a third round, fourth round Jalen hurts.
71:02Like there's a difference when you can get in six, seventh, uh, and some like the hardcore redraft leagues, he'll fall like the round eight, round nine.
71:10At that point, some of the wide receivers and running backs were drafting over him.
71:15It's like, it's way too fancy. Um, so give me Jalen hurts.
71:18This one. I totally agree with the point. Like, especially I'm doing a lot of, uh, best ball drafts.
71:24There's this complete dead zone at like the six, seven turn.
71:27I think it is where you're, you're staring at Jaden Daniels, Drake may Jalen hurts.
71:31And then it's like Tony Pollard, Rico Dowdle at running back.
71:34And then like, yeah, it's just completely disgusting. Yeah.
71:37Yeah. Trey Harris is back up. I have my ranks uploaded, not ADP.
71:41So I don't see QJ there, but I know he goes there, but I have been tie breaking a little bit to, to may and Daniels over hurts.
71:49I, I guess for me, like maybe it is just like the bad vibes, um, that I have from last year with
71:55the Eagles that potentially I'm overrating a little bit, but I do see a bit higher of like passing ceilings for may and Jaden Daniels.
72:02I think what is undeniable is like the rushing touchdowns for Jalen hurts can just kind of wipe those guys out.
72:08Uh, so I think, I think that's a good case.
72:11You kind of sold me on, on mixing up the exposures between those three quarterbacks there because it does just feel like
72:18a prime area to target, target a quarterback. I would just say for, for Jaden Daniels, the infrastructure there might be really bad.
72:24Like I'm getting very nervous about the offensive line.
72:27Like they don't have a center that can like snap the ball right now.
72:31Their left tackle spot, like took a huge hit with Larry Muton.
72:34So like, I think organizationally they're still like pretty flawed.
72:37Like one of the moments of the off season was they released Tyler Biotish and then the charger signed Biotish for more
72:44money than the cap savings that the commanders could have had, which is like a sign that you should probably just trade them.
72:50Like teams are valued more than what, uh, you're, you're releasing them for.
72:54So like weird things like that. Uh, the, the wide receiver group is still pretty bad, um, in general.
72:59So I have my, I think that Jaden's like a fine pick, but I just think him versus Jalen hurts.
73:05I think you have to take the infrastructure and it's like, there's a chance like Makai, Lemon, Dontabian, Wicks, like it doesn't equal AJ Brown, like exactly.
73:13But I think as a whole group, you can maybe do a little bit more if you have more weapons to kind of throw the ball to.
73:21And I would just be fascinated to see him in not a completely different offense, but in an offense that's a little bit less predictable.
73:28Um, and we'll see what happens. I think if he runs a whole lot more and like, there's, there's no reason for
73:34him to be losing all that weight unless he's running a lot more.
73:38Um, I think that's how he gets back to like the truly like elite quarterback range.
73:43All right. I think that's all of the main ones.
73:46Is there anything else you guys want to get off, off your chest?
73:49Um, or should we wrap it there? That was an hour 15 already.
73:53Leave it up. I think I emptied out the junk drawer with three Harris.
73:57So I don't think I can take, but you know, you, you guys can, you guys can find that on Twitter.
74:03I think he's an advocate season though. Okay. Okay.
74:06Um, all right. You guys can find Jacob Sanderson, Sam Sherman on Twitter.
74:10Of course, uh, Jacob, you have both. You guys have a lot of stuff going on, but yeah, Jacob, tell us where you're writing these days, podcasting.
74:17Do you do the whole nine yards? All right.
74:20Uh, so you can find my, all of my written work or actually that's no longer true.
74:25You can find most of my written work at jacobsanderson.substack.com.
74:28You can find a little bit of my written work over at the athletic.
74:32Um, I'll have two pieces up. One already came out and one will come out tomorrow.
74:37My top, uh, sells and buys for dynasty formats.
74:39Um, and then you can find me on various podcasts, uh, ship chasing the long view and, uh, dynasty points.
74:45Um, if you want my rankings for best ball, redraft, any of that stuff, that's all over on the sub stack by draft guide as well.
74:52Um, which is thinking about thinking jacobsanderson.substack.com. Thanks a ton for, for having me.
74:56Yeah. That's what you have to do. Once you, uh, quit your real time job and you want to do fantasy work,
75:03you got to have 19 things going on, but Jacob's Jacob's crushing.
75:06I gotta, I gotta get a link tree. Cause I just like doing like the apps and my Twitter bio and taking
75:13away from, I've been like changing words into emojis now, like try and save space and stuff.
75:18Yeah. But it's all excellent. Sam, what do you have?
75:20I actually, I don't know what you're doing. Are you doing anything for, for in season or are you going to take it?
75:27In season still a bit TBD, but, um, unfortunately I'm like you guys, I still got the real job, uh, issue that's a blocking me.
75:34Um, so, uh, yeah, right now this off season, um, you're, you're acting like you're acting like you have no choice and you're just $2 million.
75:42It seems like options are good for you, but yeah, like I gotta pay the bills.
75:46Like, I don't know how else it's going to happen.
75:49Like, get out of here. I'm sorry. There's not the taxes in Massachusetts.
75:53You guys, you guys don't know what I have left.
75:56Um, but anyways, yeah, you need to, you need to do like the former athlete.
76:00To save on taxes. Yeah, exactly. But you should do the former athlete thing.
76:04You're like, have you guys heard about these taxes?
76:07And we're like, what? Have your money's gone? I've never heard of this.
76:11They got this thing called the millionaires tax in Massachusetts.
76:14Anyways, uh, it's a huge, huge over to me.
76:16Um, but Sam's going to turn into Le'Veon Bell overnight.
76:19You need to go on CNN and explain how, how bad this is.
76:23Like the, the local man, like local fantasy football winner complains about tax rate.
76:27If I could, I'm coming out to LA. If I could borrow your wardrobe, Hayden, I'm happy to go on CNN.
76:33Oh, for sure. Yeah. Plenty of turtlenecks in August for you.
76:36I'll have them waiting. How many outfits did you try on before settling on that, by the way?
76:41So I knew I wanted to wear, uh, this tweed suits, but the problem with the tweed suit is like all the
76:48undershirts were like getting a little bit too busy.
76:50And I didn't want to do just like a plain light blue shirt.
76:54And I didn't want to wear a tie because nobody else, like at their guests, they were wearing ties.
77:00So I was like, you know what? I'm not going to do this boring.
77:04I'm going to do the turtleneck here. And then I followed dye work where one of the best accounts on Twitter.
77:10Everyone has to have to read everything he publishes.
77:12And the one thing he says with the tweed suits, rock the turtleneck.
77:16Like that's, that's like the whole point of... Does he comment on whether that's a move in August?
77:21Uh, well, here's the thing people forget. Uh, studios are about 19 degrees.
77:25If you guys have ever been to a studio and that recording was, uh, I had to get there at 930.
77:31I wasn't live until 1030, which is completely fair.
77:34Like why are we talking games football on CNN?
77:36Like we should bury that until, you know, it's past midnight, of course.
77:40Uh, but... First, Tariff. Yes. Second, Iran. Third, Aiden Winks.
77:43I was literally like in the, in the green room with Van Jones.
77:47Uh, and he, he was talking about, you know, politicians I've never even heard of, but he, he was all fired up.
77:53But, uh, I was outside for about four seconds in the turtleneck.
77:57I survived the four seconds. And then inside CNN studios, it's, it's hashtag cold.
78:01But, uh, yeah, I, I, I guess I should have seen it coming.
78:04How big of a deal the turtleneck was. It got away from my message.
78:08The message was, you know, the, the five guys that you needed to draft and then everyone gets distracted.
78:14So next time I have to wear a regular shirt to get my point.
78:18I think the turtleneck was, was great. Um, and I've been, I've been telling everyone that I'm doing a podcast today with the guy who was on CNN.
78:26Um, no, no one has thought it's cool yet, but I'm going to keep, I'm going to keep trying it eventually.
78:32Yeah. But, uh, yeah, I guess the advice is die work where get notifications turned on, study some, some tape with, with him.
78:39He's, uh, he's the true man. All right. That's enough of that.
78:42Uh, follow these guys work. We'll be back, uh, next week.
78:45Uh, Josh will be back and we'll do tons of more shows getting close to week one.
78:50Can't wait. Good luck guys. Peace.