The 16 Fantasy Picks To Avoid Before the 10th Round
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
38 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 26, 2026
Published
Wed, August 26, 2026
14
Player insights
13
Players mentioned
Topics
Bucky IrvingAshton JeantyChris GodwinDavid MontgomeryGeorge KittleJames CookJoe BurrowJonathon BrooksJosh AllenJustin JeffersonPatrick MahomesRhamondre StevensonTrey McBride
Player analysis
Player insights
Ashton Jeanty
NegativeInjury9:59
Hayden Winks is fading Ashton Jenty due to an ankle injury and concerns about the Raiders' offensive line, rookie quarterback situation, and poor projected offensive output. Winks believes Jenty's workload will be threatened by Mike Washington Jr., potentially dropping his touch share from 86% to 65%. Winks argues Jenty is being over-drafted as a top-15 player given his RB17 finish last year.
Insight pageBucky Irving
NegativeBust19:26
The source advises avoiding Bucky Irving in the 5th round due to multiple red flags: he is a 195-pound rusher with a history of shoulder injuries, faces competition from Kenneth Gainwell in the passing game, and saw Sean Tucker and Rachaad White take goal-line work late last season. While he has theoretical upside, the source believes the cost is too high given the team's lower projected scoring compared to his rookie season.
Insight pageNegativeProjection31:49
Hayden Winks is fading Bucky Irving, noting his poor efficiency metrics (65th in rush yards over expected) and the fact that the Buccaneers' offense is projected for significantly fewer points than last season. Winks also highlights competition from Kenneth Gainwell, who is expected to squeeze Irving for passing-down work.
Insight pageChris Godwin
NegativeBust33:49
The source is fading Chris Godwin, noting he has become a slot-only player and showed significant decline in Matt Harmon's Reception Perception metrics (6th percentile vs zone, 16th vs man). The source suggests Emeka Egbuka may take over the underneath role in the offense and prefers drafting players like Josh Downs or Jordan Addison instead.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
NegativeRole27:15
Hayden Winks is fading David Montgomery in round five, citing his age, wear and tear, and the emergence of Woody Marks in the Texans' backfield. Winks notes that Montgomery is coming off his worst season in missed tackles per touch and faces an uncertain offensive line situation. Winks warns that a 60/40 split with Marks would significantly hurt Montgomery's fantasy value.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
PositiveBust29:18
The source fades George Kittle in the 8th round, noting he is nearly 33 and recovering from Achilles surgery. The source expects the 49ers to ease him into the season, potentially limiting his snap counts and target volume early on, which makes him a risky pick compared to other tight ends available in that range.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveProjection2:29
Hayden Winks is fading James Cook in the first round because he lacks the target volume to compete with top-five running backs. Despite being the RB6 last year, Cook's 39 receptions per game and the presence of Dalton Kincaid and DJ Moore suggest limited upside for increased passing game usage. Winks notes that Cook is a strong RB1 but lacks the ceiling to justify a top-12 pick.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
NegativeValue23:31
Hayden Winks is fading Joe Burrow in round four, preferring to wait on quarterback and draft wide receivers or running backs like DeAndre Swift. Winks notes that while Burrow has been a top-five quarterback since 2022, the scoring gap between him and the rest of the top 20 is minimal, making it more efficient to double up on quarterbacks later.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
NegativeBust27:15
The source advises against drafting Jonathan Brooks in the 6th or 7th round, citing his recovery from multiple ACL tears and lack of NFL experience. The source argues the market is overestimating his role as a starter, noting that Chuba Hubbard is a team captain who finished as an RB12 last year and remains the primary competition in a likely committee backfield.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeValue15:20
Hayden Winks is fading Josh Allen in round two due to a pricing issue on Yahoo. While acknowledging Allen's status as a fantasy rock star, Winks notes that Allen has historically finished between 18th and 30th overall in full PPR formats, making him a poor value in the second round compared to the third or fourth round.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeValue7:05
Hayden Winks has moved Justin Jefferson down to 15th-16th overall, preferring to draft running backs at the turn instead. Winks expresses concern about the uncertainty surrounding Kyler Murray's performance and the overall team situation, noting that he prefers his roster construction when prioritizing running backs over Jefferson at his current ADP.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
NegativeBust31:16
The source advises against pushing Patrick Mahomes up the board in the 9th round. While he was a top-10 QB last year, his production was bolstered by a career-high in rushing yards that the source does not expect to repeat following his injury. The source prefers stacking other QBs like Jared Goff or Kyler Murray and notes the Chiefs' offense is shifting toward a more run-heavy approach.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveValue23:57
The source considers Rhamondre Stevenson underrated, citing NextGenStats data that ranked him with the best rush yards over expected in the NFL last year. He is viewed as the clear lead back over Travion Henderson, handling goal-line duties and pass-protection roles, including the two-minute drill.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeValue17:12
Hayden Winks is fading Trey McBride at his 25th overall ADP, viewing it as buying the top. Winks cites new variables in the Cardinals' offense, including the addition of Jeremiah Love and a desire for a more balanced attack, which may reduce McBride's elite route participation from last year. Winks prefers taking running backs or wide receivers like Nico Collins in early round three.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00On today's episode, the 16 players you need to avoid in your drafts before round 10.
0:05This is not my doing. This is all from the mind of Hayden Winks.
0:09He goes through reason by reason, name by name of some landmines he believes that too many people are falling on right
0:15now if they are drafting for their fantasy season.
0:17Stick around for this episode of Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh & Hayden.
0:21The one thing you love about the show? Positivity.
0:24You know, we always bring the optimism, right? Not today.
0:26Really not these next two shows over the next five days.
0:30We're bringing the heat, we're bringing the pessimism, we're bringing the negativity here and Hayden is on the hot seat with the,
0:36what is it, 16 names you need to avoid before round 10?
0:39Yeah, I was writing this and one name per round wasn't enough.
0:43I decided to throw in multiple fades for each round and here's what I'll say.
0:47I looked at my exposures. I'm going to do like 200 drafts this year.
0:51These are the guys I'm taking like either literally 0% of the time or like under 3-4% of the time out there.
0:57So we'll talk about this in the lens of Yahoo ADP, how I'm building teams.
1:01But just know if I'm wrong here, I'm paying for it.
1:04The hater rate is flowing over today. As you said, our two shows will be slightly different since they come out so close together.
1:11Yours is all in relation to Yahoo's ADP. Mine will be in relation to all home league ADPs kind of aggregated together, combined together.
1:18So you get a different flavor from each of us.
1:21And in fact, I think we might only cross over about two or three names in our entire list.
1:26So this is going to be a very, very good exercise.
1:29Exercise. All right. We also have the inverse of this, by the way, where our favorite picks in every single round.
1:35So, you know, go watch that video after this round one.
1:39Give us both names, but start with one of who you have the most hesitation of in the first 12 picks, even
1:45though we know the opening 12 picks. They're all pretty damn good at football.
1:49These guys are good. James Cook. I've not been drafting all that much.
1:52He was the RB six per game last year.
1:55He led the NFL in rush yards and carries per game.
1:58His 16 half PPR points per game were two to five points behind the top five running back.
2:03So even though he was the RB six, there was a pretty substantial back, uh, or difference between CMC Taylor B.
2:09John Gibbs and Devon Adrian, just because he didn't catch the ball enough.
2:13That could change. That seems like asking a lot to change when Don Kincaid's actually healthy and you just add DJ more.
2:19Like, are you really going to throw the ball to your running back more?
2:23Uh, in that, uh, scenario, he was the RB 39 receptions per game.
2:27So I just don't see like that crazy ceiling to compete with like the, the top five, top six picks, uh, in the draft.
2:34So I've been kind of like doing some funky things at the end of round one.
2:38I'll do Devon agent with Kenneth Walker, Derek Henry with chase Brown.
2:42I'll get unique at the end of the round.
2:44Uh, and I think James Cook will be a very, very strong RB one.
2:48I just don't see the pathway for him to like really be the guy that you needed this year.
2:53Yeah. I don't want to press you too much on round one guys, because again, they're very good players and it's not like you dislike James Cook.
3:01You just simply tend to prefer some other names that are typically going after him and select him above, um, which is totally fine.
3:08You know, you, me, 10 other people at Yahoo have, you know, an expert draft that is going to be streamed for like three hours next Tuesday.
3:16Uh, obviously you and I are selecting back to back you at the ninth pick and I have the 10th pick.
3:22Like I'm kind of open to James Cook at the 10th overall pick, you know, he just in the interview with our
3:28buddy, Matt Harmon and Harmon directly asked him, Hey, you're going to catch more passes this year.
3:33Is Joe Brady going to expand the passing offense?
3:35And he basically refused to answer and said, you just have to watch.
3:39And so, you know, James Cook's game has totally transformed over the last few years.
3:43Now that he owns the inside of the 10 yard line work, uh, he'd eight in the rate of runs of 10 plus yards last year.
3:50We know, and then second in yards per rush and all that type of stuff.
3:55So if he gets the passing volume on top of that, that's how this goes to the next level.
4:00But at the same time, if it's just the rushing aspect, um, you know, he can be a very solid pick for you in the back half.
4:08Yeah. And there's other weird parts about the Buffalo bills.
4:11Like you have a first time head coach, you lost a veteran guard, like those types of little things.
4:16You just never know exactly. They might be past more pass heavy, but not throw, uh, throw the ball to James Cook.
4:22So we'll see. And then my other name real quick is Justin Jefferson.
4:26This one, I have them like 15th, 16th overall.
4:29What happened? You used to be with me in the top 12 and now you moved him down to 16th.
4:34Uh, I just like, I'm really warming up to like those other running backs a lot more.
4:39I mean, he was the wide receiver 31 last year.
4:42It was nowhere near his fault. And it's not going to be nearly that bad with Kyler Murray.
4:47By the way, Kyler Murray is my most drafted, uh, player, uh, at quarterback.
4:51Um, it's just to me, I like my teams when I have the running backs over Justin Jefferson and the fact that
4:57like Kyler Murray didn't like run away with this job so early on has me just a little bit spooked on how this thing could, could play out.
5:05Not to like completely fade Justin Jefferson. I drafted more than I do James Cook, but if you wanted to go to
5:11running backs at the turn instead of Jeff, instead of Justin Jefferson, I think totally fine.
5:16I am winding up on an Island with my Justin Jefferson take.
5:19Cause now it's you, it's Harmon, it's Boone all having him outside the top 12 rankings.
5:24I'm still in because, you know, you, you go back to it.
5:27But he was still, you know, wide receiver three and points per game with Darnold, wide receiver five with cousins and Mullins.
5:34Uh, he still owned wide receiver four in terms of team targets across the league and wide receiver five in terms of air yards.
5:40So, you know, for me, if Kyler Murray was my number one drafted quarterback, then I would also be an unjust in Jefferson too.
5:47Well, Jordan Addison happens to be my highest, highest drafted wide receiver.
5:51Okay. This is going to get easier as we go through the board.
5:54So let's now go to round two. Who's your number one fade in the second round?
5:59It's Ashton Gentry. And I think I've settled that he should be going like late round two, early round three, but I
6:05have been in a lot of drafts since the news and he goes just before that still.
6:10So the ankle injury, it seems like it's not going to be that big of a deal.
6:15It's still pretty vague. We didn't get any analysis from Clint Gubiak.
6:18I think he's going to miss either zero games or the first four games somewhere in that range.
6:23Uh, I just have concerns about the Raiders still, like I still think their offensive line is pretty, it's a work in progress up there.
6:30And then you have the quarterback situation. I think I like Fernando Mendoza, but we are talking about rookie quarterbacks.
6:36Those guys tend to struggle. And then the wide receivers are amongst the worst in the NFL.
6:41They're projected for 19 points per game. That's number 28 in the NFL.
6:45All of the running backs near him play in top 16 offenses aside from Devon H.
6:49And I know that Devon H is a superstar.
6:52I'm waiting to see that from Ashton Jenty. Uh, I can't say that his rookie tape like completely wowed me.
6:57He's good on contact. I think it takes him a second to get through the hole, maybe a little bit more indecisive
7:04than I was expecting him to be. And then the advanced metrics just show a player that really has to improve to get home.
7:10So it was the RB 11 and usage last year because the Raiders were just not good enough to get them to the goal line.
7:17I think that Mike Washington is going to actually play a little bit more on the margins for Ashton Gentry.
7:23So there's too many things to get right when he was the RB 16 in a per game basis last year.
7:29That crazy five hour window a couple of days ago, I was expecting that to drop his ADP and his draft slot way more than it has.
7:37Like, you know, these Yahoo drafts are updating every 48 hours.
7:40He's still the first pick in the second round right now.
7:43If you look at best ball, you know, he's still the third pick in the second round.
7:48And again, those are updating constantly. And that's to me at best where you should have been going before this injury, right?
7:54When you're talking about the likes of Ken Walker, the third, Chase Brown, Devon Achan, heck even Derek Henry, and obviously Saquon
8:00Barkley ahead of him at this point. I don't think they're adjusting enough.
8:04It's not just the individual stuff that you're talking about with the offensive line.
8:08I also believe that even if Ashton Jenty plays in week one, it won't be to the full on scale.
8:14And I'm not a doctor. I'm just projecting here.
8:16And so if that's the case, then Mike Washington is able to get more work than maybe people expected him to two or three weeks ago.
8:24And I think Mike Washington Jr. is going to show some stuff when getting that work, right?
8:28And then if that's the case and he does show stuff, then the gap of 86% of the touches last year might
8:35drop down to 65% of the touches this year.
8:37And that's a drastic difference. We're talking about back to this one, two turn.
8:41Yeah. To me, it's like really not even as much about the injury.
8:45Obviously, he has a higher injury risk than anybody else going around him because of just like the setback nature and still a big injury.
8:52But I just think that Mike Washington is a whole lot better than freaking Raheem Mostert and Dylan Lobby from last year.
8:58So I would just be surprised if you got the exact same workload the year before.
9:03Basically, the Raiders have to be pretty solid, like average, you know, the 20th best offense this year for Jenty to like really get home.
9:10And I think they're still like a year away.
9:12It does sound like the lowest of lowest of low sprained ankles based on insiders.
9:17I can't believe it. I can't believe it. It keeps getting lower.
9:20It keeps getting lower. All right. Real quick. I got Josh Allen in round two as a fade.
9:25That's just a pricing issue on Yahoo. I draft him at the round three, four turn.
9:30I've done the number of fantasy points over replacement per game using half PPR scoring over the last four seasons.
9:35He's been a rock star, but has finished between 18th and 30th overall in those seasons in full PPR.
9:41It would even be a little bit lower than that.
9:44That's when he's been like an MVP player. That's when he's been a red zone or a goal line.
9:49Absolute warrior out there. So, you know, there's like too many things I can go wrong slightly for Josh Allen in round two and round three, round four.
9:57Knock yourself out. I'm not going to say anything else about it.
10:00Just one final point on Ashton Gentry. He's being selected as the running back seven or running back nine, depending on your platform.
10:07That's 15th overall at worst. He finishes the running back 17 last year.
10:11You know, I think going from awful to average shouldn't have the running back 17 be the running just the overall 15th player.
10:17Like I thought I was doing a massive service going from running back 17 to the 18th overall player.
10:23But I'm just not winding up with him at all in drafts because people just are going extreme with the draft slot.
10:29Okay. Yep. Round three. Give us a name. All right.
10:32Trey McBride at the very top of the round here.
10:34I think just recent history suggests that we have to be very careful with drafting elite tight ends.
10:40Trey McBride was the exception. Last year, I was in on Trey McBride that year.
10:44There's just too many new variables this year to feel confident that this is going to repeat.
10:49Obviously, I still have Trey McBride as a great pick as you get to like the last part of round three.
10:55But early round three, I would just rather take my swings on the running backs like Jeremiah Love, for example.
11:00Any of the wide receivers like Nico Collins is there.
11:03I feel way better about that. McBride led the regular season in routes by 63.
11:07That's not tight ends. That's all players. Number two was Michael Wilson.
11:11That was because this team was in crazy garbage time the entire season.
11:14And then even when they weren't in garbage time, they were still number one in neutral pass rate.
11:20I just find that hard to believe happening again with the floor on the sticks.
11:24You add Jeremiah Love to the backfield. He wants to be more balanced offense.
11:28I don't think they're going to do the PPR scam here.
11:31And Arizona is still 31st in projected points per game.
11:34That feels a little bit light to me. They're only ahead of the New York Jets.
11:38But the difference between the Jets and the Cardinals is the Jets have one pass catcher drafted in the top.
11:44Top 160 picks in fantasy. The Cardinals have three in the top 90.
11:48So the target competition versus the projected touchdowns. I think that math is hard to kind of square away.
11:53McBride is literally one of my favorite players in the entire NFL.
11:56If he falls to 34th somewhere over there, I'm going to draft him for sure.
12:01The 25th overall ADP. I think that's buying the top.
12:04We all like to project which bottom offense by the markets is going to outperform that considerably.
12:08All the chips and all the draft picks are in the position of the Cardinals.
12:13I kind of want to be in the side of the New York Jets with Garrett Wilson and Brees Hall of this versus everyone else on the Cardinals.
12:21So maybe that's wrong. Maybe it's right. We'll see.
12:23Yeah. I mean, you mentioned the next closest pass catcher was what?
12:2763 routes. The next closest tied in for Trent McBride was 120 routes.
12:30That's three games. Four games. You know? So with that said, if he got 120 extra routes in comparison like that he
12:36did last year, that would be an end of the round one, two-turn player.
12:40You know? Right now he's going in the two, three turn.
12:44So we're already getting somewhat of a discount on it, but I totally understand.
12:48And to me, it goes back to the Drew Patsing-ness of it all too.
12:52Yes. So focusing on tied ends is the primary read.
12:54Anyone else from round three you want to bring up?
12:57Yeah. Rashi Rice still working his way back from a second surgery to his knee.
13:01I think that's like maybe kind of like we forgot about that because, you know, he was in jail for 30 days.
13:08But right before we learned that he was going to jail, we did learn that he had to have a cleanup procedure on that knee.
13:15And then I think since then, I haven't just like noticed that he's just like back to himself.
13:20The Chiefs reporter, Nate Taylor, believes that even getting 900 yards for Rashi Rice is asking too much after watching him.
13:26And I just think that that role that he's had, that little spread shotgun, get the ball out quickly, yards after the catch roll.
13:33One, if he's not up to speed, there's no reason to be doing that.
13:37Number two, I don't think they're going to be doing that because Patrick Mahomes is going to be playing in a new
13:43offense because Kenneth Walker is going to be doing a whole lot more under center.
13:47Plus you have all the weirdness with Rashi Rice off the field.
13:51So I never thought he was like some elite player.
13:53I think that he might be the worst real life wide receiver that gets drafted anywhere in this range.
13:59Not good against man coverage, really explosive in zone and in like the scramble drill.
14:03I'm not sure we're going to get that solid offense as much this year.
14:07All right. Take us to round four. This is a tough, tough one for me.
14:11I have Joe Burrow's the last pick on Yahoo in round four.
14:15I didn't really have anything negative to say about this entire round.
14:18It feels like a really strong round this year.
14:21You can draft Joe Burrow, I guess, in the fifth round if you have, you know, Jamar Chase.
14:26But that's like only in half PPR. And I think I would rather just wait.
14:30There's some of these like expert drafts, you know, and some of the higher stakes stuff.
14:35Joe Burrow will go like round seven, round eight, round nine.
14:38And I think, you know, maybe we're overthinking that like the quote unquote experts here.
14:42But I do think that there's still some wide receivers.
14:45A Colson Loveland falling, taking a swing on like a DeAndre Swift at running back.
14:49All those guys are much better picks in round four than going with a statue quarterback.
14:54He's been the quarterback five since 2022. But the entire top 20 at quarterback is within three and a half points from that.
15:00So I would rather just do double up quarterbacks way later on and try to beat the rest of my league in the flex.
15:07The next wide receiver names that span across the entire fifth round after Joe Burrow are on Yahoo, are Garrett Wilson, Terry
15:13McLaurin, Devontae Adams, Luther Burden, and DJ Moore. Yeah, fun names.
15:16Fun, very, very, very fun names. Yeah, there are certain rounds where I like every single pick.
15:21And then there are other rounds where I want to completely abandon that and not like a single player.
15:27And yeah, round four, like going halfway through round three, two, to me is like the real sweet spot in this year.
15:33It's nice. Speaking of our draft again on Tuesday, it's going to be a big deal.
15:37It's going to be streamed live, by the way, on the Yahoo Fantasy channel here on YouTube.
15:42Are you happy with the 109? I love the 110.
15:45Yeah, I'm going to have to, you know, reach on one of the running backs in the first round.
15:50So we'll see which one I'm going to do that with.
15:53But I do like how the board plays at the 3-4 turn.
15:57And then I usually can get a wider receiver that I like in round five to kind of fall to me.
16:03So it's a good spot to be in this year.
16:06Jameer Gibbs is still terrifying to me. And like these guys are the top, like, but the round two, three turn is a lot.
16:13It hits a lot different than the top, you know, the top 10 running backs at the one, two turn.
16:18I mean, you know, this two of the running backs that you really want will not be getting back to you at the 204.
16:25Well, maybe I take one that I want in front of you.
16:28I'm thrilled with this spot. Yeah. Joel Smith has the 101.
16:32So we'll see. All right. Join us for that, by the way.
16:35Round five. I do running backs here. David Montgomery and Bucky Irving.
16:38David Montgomery. I think you're first of all, you have to overcome like the wear and tear.
16:43I mean, he's been a bell cow for a very, very long time.
16:47And he's kind of reaching like the spot where we've seen other running backs kind of fall off a cliff.
16:53And I think as you look at the Texans since CJ Stroud, D'Amico Ryan's been there.
16:57The Texans are 31st in EPA per carry, 22nd in rush yards per game.
17:01Just not good enough. Joe Mixon was able to get home.
17:04But Joe Mixon, it was Joe Mixon before this.
17:07Like David Montgomery is just like not Joe Mixon.
17:09And then also the Texans gave him a whole lot more money in that season rather than what they've done with the David Montgomery contract.
17:16If you look at it in the 2023 and 2025 seasons, the Texans did not have a running back inside the top 34 on a per game basis.
17:24Woody Marks is going to his second season. Seems like he's like improving as a rusher.
17:29I didn't like his tape as a rookie, if I'm being completely honest.
17:33But he can catch passes. He can pass protect.
17:35He stood out in the preseason games. He seems to be making noise in training camp.
17:40It's not going to be a 50-50 backfield. But let's say it's a 62-38 backfield.
17:44I'm not sure if I want the 62% of the Texans offensive line.
17:48They're starting an out of position rookie center. I think three potentially washed veterans.
17:52They keep changing the offensive line, but they don't actually really invest into it in a way that makes me feel confident.
17:58Plus, David Montgomery coming off one of his worst seasons and missed tackles per touch rate.
18:02We covered this in the 15 rankings changes we made after preseason week two.
18:06That, to me, this Texans backfield is one of the most under-discussed storylines out there.
18:11Especially when you're talking about Dave Montgomery being an early, and I mean the second pick of the fifth round, selection.
18:17And it's because this is the dead zone profile to a tee that has bit us in past years.
18:22Dave Montgomery was great with the Lions, but he's coming off technically his worst season with less volume.
18:27So you're not drafting him because of age. You're not drafting him necessarily because of explosiveness.
18:32You're not drafting him because of the great offensive line that he's going behind.
18:36It might be good, but they're still shuffling. And in fact, one of their offensive line that paid a two-year $20 million
18:42contract to get carted off of practice today, unfortunately.
18:44And then you're going with a play caller that we just don't know if he can install a running game successfully yet for this team.
18:51Plus, Woody Marks emerging too. So, like you're saying, if it's 55% or 60% to 40% or 45%, that is a much
18:58different conversation than for a guy that, to me, the crux of the conversation is all about the volume that he's going to have this season.
19:05Yeah, I didn't even see the Braden Smith. That's the right tackle.
19:09That would be a big deal if the cart means he's out for extended time.
19:13And then quickly on Bucky Irving, he was 65th in rush yards over expected, 64th in EPA per carry out of 66 qualifying running backs last year.
19:20He was playing through injury, but he also just did not seem like he was quite as explosive.
19:26And you always just go back to that rookie season that he had.
19:29But that was with Liam Cohen, who he knows awesome.
19:32And that Bucs offense was 4th in scoring at 29 points per game.
19:36Tampa Bay is 18th in projected points at 23.
19:38So, like a full touchdown is coming off the board versus that season that he went crazy with.
19:43He's getting squeezed by Kenneth Gainwell through the air.
19:46That's a two-year, $14 million contract. Kenny Gainwell is a pro's pro.
19:49And then we'll see about the goal line touches.
19:52After coming back from shoulder and foot injuries in week 13, Bucky Irving did not have a goal line carry.
19:58Sean Tucker had six of them. Even Rashad White had one of them inside the five-yard line there.
20:03We'll see if that sticks. The fact that I even have to mention that is a little bit scary for a fifth-rounder.
20:09Tampa Bay's offensive line is good. That rookie season that Bucky Irving was playing, he was very good.
20:14So, he is one of these guys, like, there is, like, theoretical upside here.
20:18I just think that we're trying to overcome a lot.
20:21And we're also talking about a 195-pound rusher who wants, like, finished on contact with a shoulder injury history.
20:26So, there's too many red flags for me this early.
20:29Can I admit something? I think Bucky Irving, in my mind, is one of the players that has risen up the most this month.
20:36However, it is tough to move him up higher in rankings because I like Judarian Price.
20:40I like Basial Tootin. And then it's, you know, in drafts, Dave Montgomery and Quinchon Junkins drafted ahead of him along with Kim Scadaboo.
20:47Yeah. I can see, though, how Bucky Irving is running back 23 years, the seventh pick in the fifth round.
20:53Has a great season. We're already kind of hearing some of that.
20:56Where Kenny Gainwell is just a pass catcher you might hear about him in my episode and version of this.
21:02Sean Tucker has gotten some reports that he might not make the roster.
21:06And this offensive line is awesome. So, like, I can see a pathway as someone who really liked Bucky heading into the league.
21:12How this really pays off. But at the same time, because of all the wide receivers, not to mention some of the
21:19running backs I just mentioned, that might not reflect itself in the rankings or the drafting that I have this month.
21:24Does that make sense? No. Yeah. I see the pathway for upside.
21:28I just like the other players going around him more, particularly the wide receivers.
21:32Like, I would rather, like, you know, continue to go into the running backs with the Travis H.
21:37Hands. And, you know, you like Kyron Williams. Like, I'm still like those 3-4 running backs, too, where at a certain point
21:43I have to stop taking running backs. And I do like a lot of those 5th round wide receivers.
21:49I've got some exciting news for you, Bills fans.
21:51Or if you just live in the Buffalo area and watch our show.
21:55Yes. Yahoo Fantasy Draft Weekend, presented by Verst, is coming to Dick's House of Sports in the Buffalo area.
22:00That is this Saturday, August 29th, 3 to 7 p.m.
22:03I will be there. Justin Boone will be there.
22:06And the wide receiver guru, Matt Harmon, will be there as well for a special live edition of the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast.
22:12We're going to break down everything that you need to know for your fantasy draft.
22:16We're going to answer your questions. And again, it's going to be a live show for you all to sit in and
22:22watch and listen to and contribute to. Plus, we'll give away some free things along the way.
22:27So, if you're getting ready for your draft, this is the place to be.
22:31Bring your league mates. Bring your friends. Your fiancee.
22:34Your dog. Whatever. Come hang out with us. We'll see you in Amherst, New York this Saturday, August 29th at 3 p.m.
22:40Next up is round six. You have one name.
22:43A clear name for you here. One name. Travion Henderson.
22:45Drafted him only 2% of the time. And I don't remember drafting those 2% of the time.
22:50But that might have been, you know, ghost picks there.
22:53When Ramondre and Henderson were both healthy inside the 5-yard line carries, went 12-4, obviously in favor of Ramondre.
22:58When they were both healthy in the four games in the NFL playoffs, Ramondre 11.6 half PPR points.
23:04Travion 3.4 fantasy points per game. That's when they're trying to win a dang Super Bowl.
23:08So there's a huge gap that he has to overcome this offseason.
23:11I haven't been reading anything very positive about Travion Henderson's offseason.
23:15I'm expecting him to get a little bit better.
23:17I'm not expecting him to be better than Ramondre Stevenson, who's like 245 pounds at the goal line or in pass protection.
23:23Those are two pretty big areas because Ramondre Stevenson would get out there in like the two-minute drill and catch some passes.
23:30Beyond that, Ramondre is like pretty underrated in general.
23:32Like for example, last year, NextGenStats, their tracking data had Ramondre with the best rush yards over expected in the NFL.
23:38So Travion can obviously be the guy that you needed if Ramondre goes down or fumbles multiple times.
23:43But I can say that about Blake Corum, Kyle Menungai, Tank Bigsby, Mike Washington.
23:47Those guys go five rounds later, you know. So I just don't want to take like who I view kind of like
23:54a contingent-based bet in the sixth round. To me, I just I'm looking at other names.
23:58I can do that in round eight, nine, ten.
24:01Yeah, just on Yahoo specifically, Travion Henderson is the first pick of the sixth round and Ramondre Stevenson is the second pick of the seventh round.
24:08Let's just say I'll have more to say about this name too, my version of this episode on Sunday.
24:13There we go. All right, round seven. Some interesting names here, Hayden.
24:17The first one all the way down at one percent of a time is, you know, just the fourth overall pick in the NFL draft.
24:24Yeah, I'm not drafting Cardinal Tate. I looked at it.
24:27The Titans are the team I've drafted collectively the least.
24:30And I feel good about that. I liked Cardinal Tate as a prospect, but I will admit he is not like the
24:36type of wide receiver that typically goes like inside the top five.
24:39Like there's he is nowhere near like the Jamar Chase level guys.
24:43So I think that he could be like a Calvin Ridley.
24:46DeAndre Hopkins, if he really continues to develop Jeremy Macklin.
24:49Um, but we're talking about a 21 year old early declare who's going to need some more development.
24:54And then the Cam Ward side of this stuff, it makes me really nervous.
24:58It might be the worst offensive line in the NFL.
25:00Cam Ward was not good behind it last year.
25:03Titans were 30th and scoring 30th and pass yards per game.
25:06The preseason games have not been great for Cam Ward or anybody.
25:10Uh, you know, Cardinal Tate's gone catchless on 25 routes, for example.
25:13Um, and then I look, look at the tape and it just seems like they're going to do like the RPO quick
25:19game nonsense to Wanda Robinson this entire season. So it's just a lot to overcome.
25:23Uh, Cardinal Tate Cam Ward could just be so good.
25:26Um, and they reach their ceiling and I'll take the L here, but it's, it's a lot to get right.
25:32And I just don't trust D ball with that offensive line.
25:35Could this be the end of the road for Brian D ball in the NFL?
25:39I mean, we're saying that before week one even kicks off.
25:43Well, but it really might be. Yeah. Some people say he's a Josh Allen merchant.
25:47Oh, all right. Um, he, I would never say that, you know, you would like to think that you can funnel targets
25:53and receptions in the direction of Cardinal Tate. But if he's a pure outside wide receiver, that can be difficult from an offensive line blocking standpoint.
26:00Uh, and maybe a quarterback who's basically in his rookie year all over again.
26:04Cardinal Tate's kind of like Marv in that he's going to be a good, player, but he's going to be tasked with.
26:11Those are fighting words coming from you. I mean, that is, you buried him saying that.
26:15It's, he's going to have to be in the most difficult position.
26:19And I can't say that Cardinal Tate is like, absolutely with like rocket ships where you have to manufacture touches for him.
26:25Oh my God. You loved Cardinal Tate in the draft process.
26:28And then here we are on August 26th where the headline, the quote is, I mean, we pull quotes from players and coaches all the time.
26:35Cardinal Tate is kind of like Marv period. I mean, do you disagree?
26:39Other than Parker Washington, do you like any of the wide receivers going in around seven here for on Yahoo?
26:45Oh man. It's Marv. It's Tate. It's Brian Thomas Jr.
26:48DK Metcalf. And then it's Alec Pierce and Jordan Tyson.
26:50After that. I don't like anybody in round seven.
26:53I could have said the whole round. Yeah. I've not seen a, I've not been in a draft where Parker Washington goes
26:59in round seven in a long time, but I'm glad that you guys couldn't do that.
27:04Jalen Warren is also around seven pick on Yahoo.
27:06So you have to get past him to get to Parker Washington.
27:10Let's put it that way. Yeah. Round eight. Oh no, you have another name here in round seven.
27:15Yeah. Jonathan Brooks. I'm not doing the round seven, round six, Jonathan Brooks stuff.
27:19It's too much to overcome. Multiple ACL tears, almost zero NFL experience.
27:22You know, they're the price tag is now assuming he's going to be at the Panthers starter.
27:27Not even sure we want the Panthers starter. If it's going to be a version of the committee, you know, the projective or 20.8 points per game.
27:35That's 26. They have like, in theory, they could have a good offensive line, but it's a lot of guys that come
27:41back from injuries and like new faces, that, that type of thing.
27:44In the last playoff game, Chuba Hubbard scored two touchdowns on 17 touches.
27:48Like people kind of forget about that. Cause Rico Dattle got hot in the middle of the season, but by the end
27:54of it, it was back to Chuba. And then in 2024, Chuba Hubbard was the RB 12 and RB seven usage.
28:00He was RB four and rush yards over expected during that season.
28:04They signed him to a four year, $33 million extension.
28:06He's been a team captain for games before the, the coaching staff does like him.
28:11I think that the bar to pass, uh, Chuba Hubbard is higher than other people are leading on.
28:16And then in the preseason, this matters to me the least.
28:19I've not seen like, you know, the next coming of a great running back.
28:23He's missed some, some past protection stuff. I think that his cutting and overall athleticism does, it's not standing out to me.
28:29It's not like I'm writing them off. Uh, but just too many things have to go right here to get the Panther starting running back.
28:36Uh, I'm fine missing out. Yeah. That's very fair.
28:39They want this backfield to be a split backfield.
28:41Basically. I agree. Um, and you know, Rico went off for the two on your plus yard games when, uh, it wasn't a split backfield at all.
28:49Correct. Chuba Hubbard was dealing with injuries. So yeah, I mean, the only thing with this team is they run the football
28:55and they're good at it and they're bad at it.
28:58And they might be bad at it for quite a bit at this point.
29:02Round eight. You have two names here. Give it to me.
29:05Yeah. Rico Dowd is a 1% player. I've really talked about, you know, Jalen Warren 400 times.
29:10So I think I'll, I'll, you know, stop, uh, going into that.
29:13This is where I have George Kittle as, as, as a fade in round eight.
29:18Now, if he goes later than, than this, like I'm totally open to this, especially when you have like your Juwan Johnson,
29:24Isaiah likely's, uh, Dalton Schultz, like these types of guys kind of coming on where you could, you know, buy some time with George Kittle.
29:31I think if you're getting into round eight, you're kind of expecting George Kittle to, to matter early on.
29:36And, you know, he's almost 33 years old and he hadn't his, his Achilles surgery on July 14th of this year.
29:42Now he's been the outlier. He can do it again.
29:45Um, but January 14th, you said July. Yeah. Yeah.
29:48That would be now that would be, that would be insane.
29:51That would be, that would be quite the return, uh, January 14th.
29:54I think most likely he's out there in week two and he's not a full-time player and they're easing him into the season.
30:01And at some point we're gonna have to, you know, uh, say that the snap counts are high enough where we actually trust him.
30:08Uh, and he's been somebody that has not, you know, gotten home like Travis Kelsey.
30:12We were like, all right, this is another nine target game.
30:15His comes in the variety of like, I'm getting six targets per game.
30:19And I'm just the best player ever to do it.
30:22And if we don't get that exact level of explosiveness coming off an Achilles tear, then you start to worry about the
30:28volume and the numbers kind of mattering. So later on in this, totally fine with it.
30:32I'm not expecting him to be like a top 10 tight end, uh, until way later in the season.
30:38And, you know, we're dealing with somebody coming back from a torn Achilles.
30:41You never know what happens after that. Yeah. If, if tune yesterday's episode, you know, that a night disagree on George Kittle.
30:48Uh, we won't rehash that here today. We, you can just go back and watch that episode.
30:52Uh, it is the 10 players that we disagree on most in drafts this year.
30:57And I think that was a really quality discussion from start to finish last year.
31:01I know people are liking it. So go and watch that if you want more of the positive end of George Kittle,
31:07you know, a guy that's finished as top five tight end over the last eight straight seasons.
31:12Uh, okay. Round nine. Let's close it out. You still have two names here.
31:16Uh, and one of them might just be the best quarterback of his generation.
31:20I was going to say, speaking of, uh, players that have just, I've been awesome forever.
31:25Chris Godwin and Patrick Mahomes. Um, let's start with, uh, Patrick Mahomes.
31:28Let's get this one just kind of out of the way.
31:31He was the quarterback 10 from 2023 and 2024.
31:34That was with this exact, uh, flawed pass catching group that he still has.
31:38Uh, it was not his fault, but he was only the quarterback 10.
31:41And then last year he comes back and he scrambles his way to a career high 30 rushing yards per game.
31:47The rest of the quarterback, uh, top 10 list is on injured reserve.
31:51He has an actual quality season. That type of season, I don't think is on the table coming off a torn ACL,
31:57especially when you add Kenneth Walker, I would be surprised if his, uh, uh, scramble yards are even like half of what they were last year.
32:05And I don't think we're going to go back to the chiefs offense where they were leading the league in past attempts.
32:11I just don't think that's exactly what they want to do.
32:14The interior offensive line is too powerful. My homes coming off this injury.
32:18They finally have a running back that Andy Reed could rely on.
32:21Uh, and then just, you can never trust this receiving core, like whatever we're calling Rashi rice, Xavier worthy, and Travis, uh,
32:27Kelsey at this age, it's just not good enough.
32:30So, uh, if I'm not drafting where she rice, I'm trying to stack my quarterbacks in this range.
32:35And for, for those kinds of like, you know, pushing the homes up, I just think there's no reason to do that.
32:41When, you know, Jared Goff, um, Malik Willis, Kyler Murray, all these guys pick any of them.
32:46I don't even care which one. I just don't think there's a reason to be pushing the homes up the board.
32:52Yeah. If you look at last season, all quarterbacks that started at least 10 games, Patrick, my homes was fourth in rushing yards per game at 30.1.
33:00That's more than Lamar Jackson, Drake may and Jalen hurts had in rushing yards per game.
33:04And then if you go over to rushing touchdowns, like you said, uh, he was fifth in total across the league.
33:10Uh, and that was only in 14 games played versus the guys ahead of him had 16, 17, 14 and 17 games played without the sneak.
33:18Like that's because he was scrambling. do you, are you expecting to scramble and for touchdowns this year?
33:23No, no, no. That's what I'm saying. I'm situating your point here that, yeah, exactly.
33:27That type of ceiling, because Patrick Holmes in the passing, you know, is awesome.
33:31Always. Even if he doesn't have, you know, people around him, uh, the ceiling then kind of gets unlocked for someone like
33:37him when you have the rushing aspect of it.
33:40And, uh, I just don't expect that to continue this year at all.
33:43Yeah. I agree with that. Uh, and then last one, Chris Godwin, this is just watching Chris Godwin last year.
33:49And then, um, watching a Mecca Buka. I just think we're the, the transition is here.
33:54And that is going to be the guy that they're going to, uh, center the past game through underneath, uh, over the middle.
34:00Chris Godwin's a slot only player to me at this point.
34:03And he has to just be way better than what he was last year.
34:07Uh, I thought he was dropping passes and contested catch situations, but it wasn't just that.
34:12Uh, and, uh, I'll, I'll go over to, to Matt Harmon's reception perception right here.
34:16He had a six percentile rating against his own coverage last year, a 16th percentile rating against man coverage.
34:21Like that is nowhere near where Chris Godwin has typically been.
34:25If you look at the success rate, uh, chart that he has, there's a lot more red than there is green and yellow there.
34:31Um, so could he bounce back as a 30 year old?
34:34It's possible, but that's a lot of injuries that he's had ankle, the ACL.
34:38Uh, and I think I'm making book and can do a lot of the stuff that prime Chris Godwin was able to do.
34:45Um, so I, I've, I've been fading him. Chris Godwin is one of those names that I have no idea what to do with this summer.
34:52Zero. Like on the positive end, I could say, Hey, he was coming back after saying that big deal from a dislocated
34:59ankle and he just didn't heal correctly as we have seen with other people.
35:03Um, and he met a book, uh, most likely has a turf toe and that can linger on and on.
35:08Uh, and so could Chris Godwin like theoretically lead this team in receiving this year?
35:13I, that is a small possibility, but I think it's a possible.
35:16Yes. But on the opposite end, he looked like garbage last year, you know, like his hands weren't even close to as
35:22good and consistent as they were in, in previous seasons, along with everything that, that you brought up.
35:27So like, again, kind of comes to these veterans where we've seen the best from them.
35:32We've seen the worst from them and our brains then don't know which side of that to choose.
35:37Even if like, maybe there isn't a side to choose and it's just right down the middle.
35:42We get a little bit of both all season long.
35:45So yeah, Chris Godwin. Again, when I go through all my rankings, I have no idea.
35:49My brain freezes if I know to move them up or if I move them down, I'm kind of, he's, he's in
35:55a range where I could draft him. Just whenever I'm on the clock, I'll go Josh downs.
36:00I'll go Jordan Addison. I go Matthew golden over him.
36:03Um, and it's also like a decent range to find quarterbacks instead of wide receivers.
36:07Like if I'm double clicking quarterbacks and advising everyone else to do that, like around nine, 10, 11 is like the range to be doing that.
36:15So I'm usually saving a bullet or two for, for other positions, um, as well.
36:19So yeah, we'll see. It just was not the same player last year.
36:23If he comes back. Awesome. Uh, I've been loading up on a Mecca book a whole lot more.
36:28Um, hopefully, uh, the toe injury doesn't bite me.
36:30All right. That does it. That's a lot of names in 35 minutes.
36:34Hopefully you enjoyed that episode. Uh, tomorrow Hayden has some guests on some familiar faces and, uh, you know, Sam Sherman who
36:40just won a whole big tournament in, uh, you know, fancy football history last year.
36:44And, Jacob Sanderson who's on this channel too. So, uh, both those guys are excellent.
36:49They've done great work for us in the past and they're going to join Hayden here on the channel tomorrow's episode.
36:55And then, uh, on Sunday we'll have, my fades of the season.
36:58And then next week we kick things off with, uh, our final rankings for each position as we head into the biggest
37:04week of drafting out there for fancy football. Speaking of rankings, I've got my kicker solo video dropping, uh, sometime this weekend.
37:11Uh, actually did some research. Uh, you know, don't haze me.
37:14There he is. And again, keep in mind Tuesday, an expert three hour live draft.
37:18Uh, that's next Tuesday. And then, uh, I know the ad world during this episode, but this Saturday, if you're in the
37:24Buffalo or Niagara area of, uh, let's say the world, uh, myself, Matt Harmon and Justin Boone will be at Dick's house
37:30of sports, uh, on Saturday evening around 7 PM for a live show, answering your question, doing giveaways, all that type of stuff.
37:37So, uh, come out and see us. I think it's totally free for everyone just to come up and hang out and
37:43watch us, uh, you know, do a live podcast because we don't do enough of podcasting right now.
37:48All right. Shout out to motion. We's behind the scenes.
37:51All of you for watching. If you're new around here, hit subscribe, leave a thumbs up and we'll see you in the next video.
More episodes from Underdog Fantasy Football Show
Week 3 Fantasy Football WR Rankings (Top 42)
Sep 25, 2026
Week 3 Fantasy Football RB Rankings (Top 42)
Sep 23, 2026
Week 2 Fantasy Football WR Rankings (Top 44)
Sep 18, 2026