The First Round of 2026 Fantasy Drafts Is All Wrong
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Jul 29, 2026
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Wed, July 29, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00There is no bigger consensus in fantasy football drafts than the top 12 overall picks the first round.
0:05So as soon as best ball drafts open in May, the same names make up the first round all summer long for multiple months.
0:12But we all know that the season once it's over does not end that way.
0:16So today, Hayden and I are going to do our best to break groupthink and both list how we rank the top
0:2212 to 15 overall picks in this year's fantasy drafts.
0:25I think the interesting part about round one is there's like the top six players who have established themselves as true separators
0:31and then the back half and then even in the second round.
0:35To me this year, it's about finding the ceiling case because if I don't have Jameer Gibbs this year, if I don't
0:41have Puka Nakua, I feel very nervous about my chances of winning.
0:44I can't afford to take the RB eight finisher somewhere in that turn.
0:48I'm hoping for the RB three that year because I think it'd be pretty difficult to match some of the ceiling cases
0:54that we have in the first half of round one.
0:57So that's why I'm breaking ties at the back half of round one.
1:01Love all of that. How we're going to do this is just go back and forth one to 15.
1:06We're going to talk about those players at the turn because that's when a major factor is in terms of how you're going to build your lineups.
1:14This year, we're going to talk about half PPR rankings, but maybe throw in a bit of strategy if PPR and our
1:20rankings and how we're draft these players is very divergent from that.
1:24All right, you're going to start with each one of these and then I'll go back and forth.
1:29Who is your number one player in drafts this year?
1:32It's got to be Jameer Gibbs. He's holding out for a contract.
1:35Hopefully that gets settled shortly, but the upside here is so obvious.
1:38Jameer Gibbs has averaged 25.1 half PPR points in the eight games that David Montgomery has missed or played under 25% of the snaps.
1:45He's going to set career highs in volume. The Detroit offensive line has gotten a little bit better going into this season.
1:51They spent some real capital across the entire offensive line.
1:54He was fourth last year in fancy points over replacement per game.
1:58That was while he was splitting time with David Montgomery, but check goes in there.
2:02I do not think Pacheco and David Montgomery are nearly the same level player.
2:06This is all going towards Jameer Gibbs and the other last note I had that defense is going to be pretty bad this year in Detroit.
2:13So we're going to see a lot of shootouts, a lot of dome games.
2:17This entire division is loaded. So we're going to see a lot of like 28 to 30 games in Detroit.
2:23Jameer Gibbs is going to get a lot of those points.
2:26Yeah, the interesting part about the defense maybe still being bad is that the Lions heading into the season are still favored in 14 games this year.
2:34I think that's second across the league. Jameer Gibbs is also my number one player.
2:38He's actually going second on Yahoo at this very moment.
2:41If you look at drafts over the last handful of days, I mean the goal of drafting a running back this early
2:47on is that he eclipses the 20 or 21 points per game for the entire season in the 25 career games with
2:53Gibbs has played 60% or more of the team snaps.
2:56He's averaged 20 points per contest. And as you said, I wrote it down the same way.
3:01Isaiah Pacheco is no Dave Montgomery. So I'm expecting Jameer Gibbs to hit that 70%, you know, snap share on a weekly basis.
3:07He played 67% last year. And then a big note for me with how the team kind of crumbled last year, obviously
3:14they fired their play caller and offensive line injuries hit in a major way.
3:17There are some new faces and some same ones in new places along that offensive line where you have Panay Sewell left
3:24tackle, Blake Miller in round one at right tackle.
3:26Tate Ratledge is in year two at guard and then you have Cade Mays at center right now.
3:31So not only does he give you like week to week scoring Hayden, he's also one of the true game breakers with
3:38his speed, both in the rushing and receiving department.
3:40They can give you those massive spike weeks if those pop up in the fancy playoffs.
3:45And hey, you're headed to the championship. Other note, Drew Petsing is a new offensive coordinator.
3:49I was looking at some yards before contact numbers in the run department.
3:53Number one is like the Mike McDaniel offense over the last couple of years.
3:57Part of that's because Devon H in really high up there over the last couple of years.
4:02Drew Petsing and the Arizona Cardinals, which you would not think that's not an offensive line stat in Arizona over the last couple of years.
4:09It's definitely not a running back stat either. To me, that's a scheme oriented stat.
4:13A credit to Drew Petsing. This is the best weaponry he's had since being in the play calling mix.
4:18Yeah, I will add. We just did a show with Ryan Paganetti on, you know, play callers and how they're generating in
4:25their rushing attacks, 10 plus yard runs over and over and over again.
4:28Drew Petsing ranks fourth on that list, whereas, you know, Ben Johnson was top two.
4:33Clayton Adams, who is now with the Dallas Cowboys, was a part of that Drew Petsing staff in Arizona.
4:38And now he's not. So maybe some of those numbers are skewed because Clayton Adams is one of the best run, let's
4:44say, organizers and architects across the league. All right.
4:47So we have the same one. Hey, I have a feeling that our number two player is going to be the same here as well.
4:54Yeah, at half PPR, I will go Beers and Robinson.
4:57I think in full PPR, this is where the Puka Jamar chase conversation, I think, really kind of picks into gear just
5:03because I feel less certain about the Falcons. offense versus the Lions offense.
5:07And that's how he broke the tie between Bijan and Jameer Gibbs.
5:10That said, the market projections for Bijan and Gibbs are almost the exact same thing.
5:14We also have Tyler Algier without Bijan Robinson. We don't know the exact splits because Algier has been healthy for a lot of that.
5:21Ryan Robinson comes in. I think he can do a pretty decent Tyler Algier impression.
5:25But Bijan was the RB3 on RB8 usage last year.
5:28That was when Algier handled 10 inside the five-yard line carries to Bijan's 11th.
5:32So that was like a 50-50 split. Can we just not make that 50-50 split moving forward?
5:37That would be helpful. He's going to catch the ball.
5:40There's really not many pass game threats in Atlanta after Kyle Pitts and Drake London.
5:44I don't think the defense is going to be nearly as good.
5:47So he's going to catch a bunch of passes.
5:50And this hopefully could be the year where Kevin Stefanski says, let's give Bijan Robinson all the goal line work.
5:56And that's how he closes the gap between these huge Jameer Gibbs splits that we have with David Montgomery.
6:01Yeah, in the fantasy playoffs last year, Bijan ran for 175, 168, and 229 total yards.
6:06Obviously, Bijan Robinson is my number two player as well for fantasy football this year.
6:10He's averaged 20 points per game when he's reached 15 touches.
6:13That's not a lot of touches to average 20-plus fantasy points per contest.
6:17And yeah, he owned 79% of the snaps last year.
6:19So I'm ranking him second. But with that in mind, Hayden, I still do think there is a pathway for him to
6:26obviously finish as the number one overall player in fantasy football this year.
6:29And then I sat back and asked myself, okay, how can that happen?
6:33What has to change for Bijan to get there?
6:36It really comes down to red zone scoring, okay?
6:38He's ranked 13th, 6th, and 23rd in red zone running back scoring over the last three years, according to Rich Rebar.
6:44And over his first three years in the league, he's only had Hayden 23 carries from inside of the five-yard line.
6:50Derek Henry had 24 last season on his own.
6:53Even Devin Singletary had more carries inside the five-yard line than Bijan Robinson did last year.
6:57Now, a lot of you can say, well, that's because he scores long touchdowns.
7:01Yes, that is true. But what could make him the number one overall player is if he scores the long touchdowns.
7:07And also when this team gets inside the five-yard line, he also scores those touchdowns.
7:11And I think that we might get closer to that this season.
7:15Yeah, I really hope so. Yeah, 10 to 11 last year with Algier.
7:18Hopefully that's not the case this season. I didn't want to end this conversation by bringing up why we have Jameer Gibbs over Bijan Robinson.
7:25I'll speak for myself. It comes down to just the implied points and where these teams are projected heading into the year.
7:32I mentioned that the Lions are favored in 14 games this season, and the Falcons are only favored in two.
7:37And you score more points than your opponent in games that you win.
7:41And the Lions are probably going to score more points than the Falcons this year.
7:45And I think the trickle down to Jameer Gibbs just means he's going to score more points than Bijan Robinson.
7:51And to that point right now, the quarterback one in Atlanta today is a complete nobody because Tua is injured and so is Michael Penix.
7:58You have those worst-case scenario outcomes that exist with Bijan.
8:01Enough so where I think these next two wide receivers, I do think by the end of this training camp period, I
8:07might kind of go back and forth and maybe even have Bijan as like low as four.
8:12But I can't go any lower than that, obviously.
8:14I was hoping to start this video off with a bang.
8:18I am a bit nervous that our top four are going to be the same.
8:22So to you, the viewers, do not click away.
8:24I guarantee you once we get to our fifth players, things really diverge from there.
8:29We go in different places. So stick around because this video gets really interesting there.
8:33But to bring that up, who's your number three player in fantasy football drafts this year?
8:37Really tough call. I'm going with Jamar Chase right here.
8:40In games with Joe Burrow healthy over the past three seasons, he's averaging 21.5 PPR points per game.
8:45Wide receiver one on wide receiver one overall expected points.
8:48Joe Burrow is healthy. Jamar Chase is healthy. I would say the offensive line since the beginning of the Joe Burrow-Jamar Chase
8:54years to where it is now is in a much better spot.
8:58The defense is probably a little bit better now than it was the last couple seasons.
9:02I view that all as a wash. I view the Bengals as a Super Bowl contending team this year.
9:08And everything obviously flows through Jamar Chase. So he feels like one of the highest floor players, period.
9:13And then in full PPR, if you want to take him over to B.
9:17John Robinson, I would not bat an eye for a second.
9:20Jamar Chase is also my third overall player in four of his five seasons.
9:24He's ranked top five in points per game. Pretty damn good.
9:27He is both one of the most heavily targeted players in the end zone.
9:31And then also scoring targets from long range. It's kind of what I just talked about with B.
9:36John Robinson. This is what we want from a wide receiver.
9:39And also, not just getting the opportunity to score touchdowns.
9:42It's also he's an outside-to-inside, inside-to-outside player in this offense.
9:45So he's a game-breaker. We have seen him score 30, 40 points.
9:48Just anecdotally, he probably has more of those 30-plus point scoring weeks than any other wide receiver in fantasy football over the last few seasons.
9:55And that is why I have him as the wide receiver one and third overall this year.
10:00Yeah. Last four games, 23 points, 20 points, 25 points, 24 points.
10:04You know, it's just a clinic. Pretty good. I have another bingo I'm going to talk about.
10:08Spoiler. In the top 15. So I have a lot more of how the Bengals offense was unsuccessful early in the season
10:15with Jake Browning and got much better with Joe Flacco and Joe Burrow.
10:18And obviously, Jamar Chase felt that, too. All right.
10:21Your number four player is who? Puka Nakua, and he can easily, easily finish as the most valuable player in fantasy this year.
10:27I think this is a big four that I feel comfortable with.
10:3123.8 PPR points per game were 3.4 more than the wide receiver two overall last season over the past two seasons.
10:37Only Jamar Chase is in his neighborhood over his entire career.
10:40Nakua has the most receiving yards per game in NFL history.
10:43That's the entire league history at 95 yards per game.
10:46There's still no wide receiver three. They're going to do the 13 personnel stuff.
10:50It'll be the only wide receiver on the field.
10:52His running mate is 33 years old in Devante Adams.
10:55The Rams are still projected for the most points this year.
10:58Outside of the red zone, Nakua caught eight receptions per game on a 33% target share.
11:03That's outside the red zone. Eight per game. That's what we're talking about here.
11:07And inside the red zone, at any point, if we put this thing around, we're talking about a season that is unmatched in fantasy.
11:14I don't think that's the most likely scenario because Adams is very good at the goal line.
11:18But if that switches, we're talking about an unmatched potential here.
11:21Puka is also my number four player. I do love how you worded that of outside the red zone, because I think
11:28not my one frustration with Puka Nakua, but like the one infinity stone that he hasn't had previously is being dominant inside the red zone.
11:35I mean, just overall, it was scoring touchdowns prior to this past season.
11:38I mean, his first two years in the league, he combined for 10 touchdowns.
11:42And then obviously this past year, he hit 11, which is a big deal.
11:46We need that to happen again. And I think it will.
11:50But as you said, when they get inside the 20 yard line and especially the 10 and the five Devante Adams just
11:56has the gravity, no matter where he goes, what team he's on to dominate those opportunities.
12:00When Devante Adams was on the field last year, according to Reeves, he out targeted Puka Nakua 31 to 10 in the
12:07red zone and 28 to four in the end zone.
12:09But as you said, like when Devante missed games, guess who got those opportunities?
12:13Puka Nakua. And what if Devante has started to decline a little bit and maybe they've spent the offseason hoping that Puka
12:20can be their go to player inside the red zone and especially in the end zone.
12:24And if that is the case, as you said, we have like from one goal line to the other goal line, a
12:30full complete package here with Puka Nakua to be like the player that you need in fantasy football this year.
12:36There's no reason why they don't target him in the red area.
12:39Like he comes down with crazy sideline catches and is a massive guy.
12:43Like the second they switch that, like it would clearly work.
12:46So it's just really just, you know, even factoring that that's not going to happen.
12:50It's him and Jamar Chase by themselves right now.
12:53I'm looking at it. Right. His projection, like in the betting markets, 1400 receiving yards, 1400 receiving yards.
12:58That's like the baseline case for him. That's crazy.
13:01Yeah, it's great. I mean, wide receiver one, wide receiver five and wide receiver nine and points per game since entering the league.
13:07And that was what as a day three draft pick that rarely happens, you know, rarely happens.
13:12And I do want to say, I feel a lot better about Matthew Stafford heading into this season than I did this time last year.
13:19Hayden, when, you know, the immortal chamber showed up on day one.
13:22It's still there, by the way. It's still there.
13:25It's a road show now. Yeah. Now it's just purely for marketing purposes.
13:29Also weird thing. Bijan, Jameer Gibbs and Puka Nakua.
13:31It's like contract seasons for all these guys. I know you're going to get paid maybe before the before training camp.
13:37But like we've got a lot riding to the prime of all these guys careers.
13:41Like it feels very good to have a top four pick this season.
13:45All right. This is one of our biggest shows of the summer.
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14:07Hayden, I am sick of agreeing. I don't want to agree the rest of this episode.
14:12So who is your number five player? I'm going Christian McCaffrey.
14:15Coming off 450 touches. You know how this can go sideways here.
14:18It's rare to get that many touches when running backs get that many touches.
14:22They're injured often the next season. That said, he easily finishes the RB1 overall unexpected points at 23 per game.
14:28RB1 overall and actual fantasy points as well. If he stays healthy, he's right in the mix with B.
14:33John Robinson and Jameer Gibbs. And I'm trying to find upside weeks.
14:37Even if you get him for 13, 14 weeks, like scrape by the last couple of weeks here.
14:42He just gives you such a clear advantage when he's out there.
14:45Kyle Shanahan wants to scale his workload back a little bit.
14:48They always say that. I think they're going to do it at times this year.
14:53But we're dropping receivers like flies with Ricky Pierce, George Kittle coming off of an injury.
14:57And running backs with broken ribs and whatnot. It's like, we're going to come to the season again.
15:02He's going to be the only guy that's healthy.
15:05So I get it. He can get injured. And this could look stupid.
15:08And at the same time, like last year, you can draft him and you can win your fantasy league.
15:14Christian McCaffrey is my number six overall player. Hey, I mean, it was my home run swing on this episode last year
15:20where I called out CMC as my fourth overall player.
15:23And he finishes the running back one with 22 points per game.
15:26I'm not doing that this year, but it's not because I don't want to or don't believe in him.
15:32I think I just kind of believe in the other players that we talked about here at the front.
15:37I mean, no player owns more of those team touches than CMC did last year.
15:4147 percent, like 47 percent of the time he touched the football.
15:45Now, as you said, it's kind of twofold, right?
15:47Would CMC season have been even better if everyone was healthier, right?
15:51Better team, more points scored, better blocking. I think there is a case for that.
15:55Or did he actually benefit from everyone being hurt?
15:57You know, he was force fed the ball despite lacking juice because the underlying metrics were really poor.
16:03I mean, he was 37th in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards.
16:0732nd on runs that got stuffed at the line of scrimmage that failed to gain yards.
16:1136 in yards after contact per rush. And as you said, like the last three backs that hit 450 touches from Arian
16:18Foster to DeMarco Murray to the season prior of Saquon Barkley, their production and their fantasy appeal dropped significantly the next year.
16:24So I love CMC. I don't want him to hit this cliff, but, you know, those guys were 26 and 27 years old.
16:30I just shouted out. And CMC is entering his age 30 season right now.
16:34Yeah, he's a lot riskier this year than he was the previous season, which is ironic because he was coming off of injury.
16:41And you really just want to be avoiding him when he comes off that amount of touches.
16:46I just can't ignore the upside. We're trying to come in first and second.
16:50Last time I checked in fantasy football, like you just got to deal with the risk.
16:54Absolutely love that. OK, my fifth player. I'm on Ross St.
16:57Brown. I actually changed this right before this video started.
17:00I did another wide receiver in the spot. But just going through this research, I thought to myself, I just trust ARSB
17:06and this situation more than I do others. I mean, 100 plus catches in each of the last four seasons and just
17:13the environment that he's in is fantastic. I mean, we're talking about also the team that shares, you know, the number one
17:19overall player in fantasy football this year. 12 of 16 games in the fantasy season will be played indoors.
17:24I already mentioned how many games are gonna be favored in.
17:27And I keep talking about, you know, red zone and end zone targets because guess what?
17:32That's where the majority of touchdowns are scored. There are a lot of differences between Amon Ross St.
17:37Brown and someone like Zay Flowers, for example. But one of them is that red zone work.
17:42I mean, Amon Ross St. Brown led the NFL with 34 red zone targets last season.
17:46Comparably, Zay Flowers had 10. Amon Ross St. Brown has 66 red zone targets over the last two seasons.
17:52Zay Flowers has 17. So this is someone who from your own end zone to the other end zone is going to be heavily featured and heavily target.
18:00And he even scored as the wide receiver for last year when the play caller was fired midseason.
18:05And I expect a lot more stability from the offensive line and a coaching standpoint in 2026 here for the line.
18:11As safe as it gets in this prime, the offense is completely loaded.
18:14Three straight seasons with double digit touchdowns and 115 plus receptions.
18:17That's incredible stuff. There's also splits without David Montgomery as well.
18:21So this is 10 game sample where D-Mont either missed the game or finished with five carries like left the game early.
18:27In those games, Amon Ross St. Brown averaged 21 PPR points on 22 expected points.
18:31Both of those would be the wide receiver one overall if you extrapolate to that.
18:35He's averaged eight receptions, 102 receiving yards in those games.
18:38He hasn't even run hot in touchdowns in those ones.
18:41Yeah, this one's like a total layup. I have him eighth overall.
18:44I think I can make the case with him, JSN, Jonathan Taylor.
18:48They're kind of all in that range where I feel very good about them.
18:52Amon Ross floor is just like so incredible and obviously better in full PPR.
18:56Okay, who's your sixth ranked player? I got JSN six coming off an incredible season.
19:00That was 99.6 receiving yards per game, including the postseason.
19:0335% target share. The next closest was Amon Ross at 32%.
19:06That's a pretty large gap there. Only 8% of his targets were screens.
19:10So he wasn't doing this like as a merchant.
19:12Like you get some of the gamey stuff, but really last year was about working the ball down the football field.
19:18That's a credit to Sam Darnold. The offensive line took a little bit of a step here.
19:23The one thing working against JSN is he's done it once where a lot of those guys we've talked about have done it many times.
19:30And then you also have the loss of Clint Kubiak, who we fully trust.
19:34Now, the new guy that they're bringing in comes from the Shanahan tree and Brock Heward, who covers the Seahawks.
19:40He had an interesting quote about this just saying that there's no like a connection between McDonald and the new offensive coordinator.
19:46He just crushed the whiteboard. Brian Flurry. Brian Flurry.
19:48Yes. Just crushed the whiteboard and was like, this guy's the smartest guy in the room.
19:53Like we have to hire him. So it wasn't like some like Nepo hire.
19:57Here's my bud from high school. It's like, no, like no real connection.
20:01Just crushed it. I kind of like that going into this.
20:04There's really like, I like Rashid Shaheed and AJ Barner for what they are, but those guys aren't like target volume.
20:10So this is going to be another huge season from JSN.
20:13I'm not really surprising anybody. I think that's a trend with Mike McDonald where he doesn't just hire friends or acquaintances.
20:19Like he hired, you know, the Washington offensive coordinator without ever, you know, overlapping with him and then fired him.
20:24And then when Clint Kubiak, I don't think he had any background with Clint either.
20:29So he really does try to hire the best person for the job and it has worked out.
20:34Uh, Jason's going sixth on Yahoo right now. So you're right in line with ADP.
20:38Uh, I have him as the eighth player. And this is the one I was battling here with Amun Ra St.
20:44Brown. I mean, the craziest stat. I think you might've just said it.
20:48I mean, he produced 3.73 receiving yards per pass attempt for the Seahawks this year.
20:52So it's not even per target. It was just, Hey, when Seattle just threw the ball to anyone, he averaged 3.73 yards.
20:58Uh, wide receiver two and points per game last year.
21:01Hey, do you think that this is the player though?
21:04That regression is likeliest to hit more than anyone else?
21:07Like again, no click Kubiak. We get Brian Fleury.
21:09I just overall, if you play the law of averages doubt, they win the Superbowl again this year.
21:14Maybe the Seahawks play action success drops this year versus the historic rate that it was at last year.
21:20Uh, he led the NFL in yards and touchdowns off of play action last year.
21:24At the same time, even if regression does hit, he still dominates any share that you look at of this passing attack
21:30compared to any other wide receiver of their past attack.
21:33So, you know, Seattle might be a little bit worse in a few areas.
21:37And if they do, then they have to throw the ball more.
21:40And if they throw the ball more, guess what?
21:43JSN can fill it in with just more opportunities.
21:45To answer your question, there is regression coming. JSN's way.
21:48It's hard at like repeat 35% target share. Like that can be, you know, down to where Monrod at 32%, uh, yards
21:54per target, 10 and a half completion percentage over expected at plus 10%.
21:58Those are just like really unsustainable numbers. Now you can regress those to 9.8 and like six, uh, percentage points over expected,
22:04which is like where the rest of the elite wide receivers are and still be the third, the second, the first fantasy wide receiver.
22:11I just think the difference between, you know, like the, the Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow offenses versus what one year, Sam Darmo.
22:17I just feel a little bit more comfy with those other two guys, but I'm not going to say anything negative about JSN.
22:24Your seventh overall player is who? I got Jonathan Taylor here, uh, RB three and RB three overall usage over the past
22:30three seasons when Shane Steichen has arrived pretty good.
22:33Uh, he's had some low end RB one moments and then like true elite RB one moments.
22:38I'm complaining the middle ground with Daniel Jones coming off of injury here.
22:41Uh, without Daniel Jones, he still had RB three usage, just did not have the efficiency, but for the first 13 weeks,
22:47he was the RB one overall on RB two usage in half PPR.
22:51Um, when Daniel Jones was like truly healthy, like remove those like fat five games where Daniel Jones was like limping around
22:57off like the broken leg that he was dealing with.
23:00It was like not even close. So I, I want to like factor in this like monster ceiling that Jonathan Taylor has.
23:06He's the entire focal point of the offense. Alec Pierce has been dealing with injuries.
23:11We'll see what happens with Josh Jones. There's no Michael Pittman here.
23:14Like we're running out of bodies to get the ball to.
23:17And I really have a lot of faith in Shane Steichen.
23:20The offensive line is in pretty good shape. It's always in pretty good shape.
23:24And like Jonathan Taylor is, he's officially him. Uh, forget the receptions.
23:28Don't even care about that. If you're going to, you know, average almost a hundred rushing yards per game, who cares?
23:34Just to outline what you just said. I mean, the Colts won eight games last year and those wins, Jonathan Taylor averaged over 30 half PPR points.
23:41Ridiculous. That's ridiculous. And then their season hit a wall and blew up because of the Daniel Jones injury.
23:47And we know how the season ended because of that.
23:50I mean, it is crazy in eight wins, which was basically eight of the first 10 games of the season.
23:55He averaged over 30 half PPR points. So when we talk about true league winners, that's it.
24:00Like that is what we're looking for. And I hate that we have to split hairs between all these players.
24:06Cause I feel like I'm really high on JT this year.
24:09I'm actually optimistic about the Colts rebounding. And that even goes to like me actually wanting to draft Daniel Jones and super
24:15flex leagues of where he's being selected right now, because people think he, he sucks, but I have Jonathan Taylor as my 10th overall player.
24:22What? I know. I know. Why? But cause all these guys are really fricking good.
24:26And I have another player at number seven. I'm going to talk about it.
24:30I know. I know. And he, he owned 84% of the Colts backfield touches last season.
24:35And the only addition to the backfield was a seventh round rookie.
24:38Who's like 26 years old. And said, yeah, it doesn't matter.
24:41Yeah. Right. So yeah. Jonathan Taylor led the league with six yards per carry posting a 47, 48% success rate.
24:47The opening 10 games before Daniel Jones, again, went to the bench and all that stuff.
24:52And I don't know. Maybe I should change it again.
24:54You better have some really good notes for whoever you have at number seven.
24:58These notes better. Like I do completely. They better sway me because you just had 30 points per game for a half season.
25:05Like these next notes better be good. Here's the difference.
25:08When the Colts are in negative game script, Jonathan Taylor is not as involved as other top backs are across the league.
25:14Okay. I think it all shocked us what happened in the first 10 games of last season when the Colts were the best offense in the league.
25:22And I, depending on where you look right now, I think the Colts are only favored for six games heading into the season right now.
25:29And if that's the case, if they only win six games this year, I think there's a chance that Jonathan Taylor season
25:35might be viewed as a bit of a disappointment just because he is not.
25:39His production is obviously not 30 points per game in losses, but I think he might have like the biggest difference between
25:45wins and losses in terms of the gap in his fantasy score.
25:49Yeah. I'm just looking at it like the last month or so of the season.
25:53He was still heavily utilized. I'm seeing RB seven or the last four games for him and expected points.
25:58Just the efficiency wasn't there. I do think even if Daniel Jones is not anywhere near where he was riding super hot
26:04in the first two months, it's better than what they had the very end, like the Phillip rivers and the, uh, Riley Leonard type of games out there.
26:12So I feel good about this. If like Daniel Jones is like healthy enough to be out there week one and like
26:19healthy enough to like keep the offense middle of the pack, but not himself.
26:23Like they have to rely on Jonathan Taylor even more.
26:25So, um, yeah, I feel good about it. Here's my onion hanger.
26:29Then at seventh overall, it's Saquon Barkley. Now on every single platform that you draft off of, he's going in round two, just like he is on Yahoo.
26:37But you said, I better have a good player for seventh overall.
26:40How about the guy that just a couple of seasons ago was the best player in fancy football and the one that you needed.
26:47And for some reason that has been forgotten about, despite all of us, 365 days ago, selecting him as the first running back off the board.
26:54Now what happens and what is happening right now, as we enter 2026 is the entire focus of the Eagles.
27:00And you know, the coverage of it is just around their passing attack.
27:04Like what is Sean Manning going to do with Jalen hurts?
27:07How is he going to pluck different throws out of him today?
27:10We read that so much more under center work.
27:13How is Devante Smith going to fill in the shoes of AJ Brown as his team's top wide receiver?
27:18How is Makai lemon and Eli Stowers going to fit in the passing attack?
27:22I am telling you, none of that matters as much as getting Saquon Barkley back on track.
27:27Like he was in 2024, because if the running game gets back to being the most explosive and like the highest success
27:33rate unit in the league, then that makes the passing game that much easier.
27:37Like it changes the math. It forces a safety or defensive back to climb into the box.
27:42And that's when you get single high. And that's when you take these easier passing shots down the field.
27:47So what happened with Saquon Barkley last year, Hayden, to me actually was not an individual talent drop.
27:52It was an environmental drop. I mean, he was 16th in rushing yards before contact per attempt last year when he ranked second in 2024.
27:59Despite that, he still ranked seventh in explosive runs last year with 58.
28:03He was second in that mark in 2024 with 77.
28:06So I think despite Jeff Stoutland being gone, a hall of fame offensive line coach, I still think just from a healthier
28:12standpoint, cohesiveness and quality offensive line is going to make Saquon Barkley get back to his best work like we saw just two seasons ago.
28:19I like this call. I've got him at 10th overall.
28:22So I'm ahead on every single ADP right there with you.
28:25I think that Sean Mannion is going to make a huge impact there just because the last offensive coordinator just like could not string it together.
28:33They were 19th in scoring right now. The betting markets have the Eagles 12th.
28:37I can see them finishing seventh in scoring if Sean Mannion bounces back.
28:40The offensive line is all returning. They just didn't play well last year.
28:44They're all banged up right now. Lane Johnson after training camp today said, what I like about this is everything looks complex to the defense, to the offense.
28:52It's actually pretty simplified. It goes on to say the O-line is it's the most friendly and maybe the past couple of
28:58years he's been involved in more under center stuff, just more different types of runs, more outside zone stuff.
29:03I thought their offense was very predictable. Like Lane Johnson was kind of laying out last year.
29:08All that stuff's going to help him out. And then plus there's some positive regression stuff with Saquon Barkley last year.
29:14He had 11 carries inside the five yard line.
29:17He scored one rushing touchdown on them. Like that's, you know, it's not a Saquon Barkley stuff.
29:22I was just like Cam Juergens, Atlanta Dickerson. They weren't healthy.
29:25And then, you know, Lane Johnson missed nine games.
29:27We also just talked to Ryan in a previous episode.
29:30Maybe the tush push kind of dials back a little bit and they might have to do some other things because like
29:36some other things we like under center run to Saquon Barkley this year.
29:40Like maybe like the Jalen hurts Saquon rushing touchdowns kind of even out a little bit this year more so than another year.
29:47So I think lots of reasons to be a back on the optimistic side for Saquon.
29:51I feel about Saquon like it did about CMC this time last year.
29:55I like that in that. We just saw this guy when healthy rank as the number one running back and like the guy you needed in multiple seasons.
30:03And because of a down season, albeit CMCs was due to health and everyone drafting him that high.
30:08It left like a bad taste in their mouth.
30:10So they don't want to do it again the next year.
30:13We're just getting crazy value to the point Hayden.
30:16I don't know how on every single platform, all of you are confidently drafting Ashton Jeanty ahead of Saquon Barkley.
30:22That makes zero sense to me. I mean, we're talking about an offense in the Eagles that's projected to score 24 points
30:28per game versus the Raiders at 19. You're expecting Ashton Jinty behind a worse offensive line to score better than Saquon Barkley
30:34who has a better offensive line and has already done it previously.
30:38I know the age gap is there. We're talking about a year two Ashton Jinty, but that one just doesn't make any sense to me.
30:45I mean, again, two years ago in a good environment, Saquon Barkley had touchdown runs of 72, 70, 68, 65, 39, 25, and 23 yards.
30:52And the last year, just two touchdown runs of longer than 13.
30:55So I said this in a bunch of places.
30:58I want to say it in our show, but I guess Saquon Barkley is like my biggest flag plant this year.
31:04And that should not be like a huge statement.
31:06But according to drafts where he's going anywhere from like the first pick of the second round to like the fifth pick
31:12of the second round, it seems like it is.
31:15This is what I'm talking about where at the one, two turn, I want like real upside 20 plus points per game type of upside.
31:22Saquon has like literally done it before. So I do like taking the swing there.
31:26Also, AJ Brown not being involved. Like could we see, you know, 10 more targets across the season to say, one Barkley just kind of breaks and ties.
31:34Like I think all those type of things are possible.
31:37I do want to say. I'm also drafting tank.
31:40Bigsby is like the best handoff in face of football this season, too.
31:43So if you're not drafting Saquon Barkley, if you're playing best ball or really deep rosters in your league, draft tank Bigsby,
31:50because if you don't believe in Saquon, then you should probably believe in tank Bigsby.
31:54Okay. I think we've both covered our eighth overall players where you have Amon Ross St.
31:58Brown and I have Jackson Smith and Jigba. If you have no more thoughts on those names, let's jump to number nine.
32:05I've got Justin Jefferson. I'm ahead of Yahoo ADP at 11 best ball in the slot ahead as well.
32:10I think Kyler Murray is going to be a big deal.
32:13I think if you throw out the 2025 season from the Vikings, which was horrific, we're talking about Justin Jefferson averaging the
32:19most PPR points per game from 2022 to 2024.
32:22It's a three year sample over 20 points per game.
32:25If we remove the Josh Dobbs and Jaron Hall games, there's been a lot of, you know, really bad quarterback games from Justin Jefferson.
32:31If Kyler Murray is a lot closer to Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold tier, which if you just would have pulled us like
32:38a year ago, we would have said like, absolutely.
32:40He's in that tier. I think he's going to go back to where he was, where at one point he had the
32:46most receiving yards per game NFL history around a hundred.
32:49Now that's belongs to Puka Nakua. They were 26 in points per game last year.
32:54I can see them being right around the top 10 of Kyler Murray, like really comes along.
32:58And I don't even think that he has to come along that much.
33:02Uh, Justin Jefferson is going to go crazy. This is a very pass heavy offense.
33:06Always has been that will not change with Kyler Murray.
33:09Uh, and Kyler don't forget. He had Deandre Hopkins had 88 yards per game in 2020 with Kyler, another 80 yards per game for Deandre Hopkins.
33:16And then Trey McBride did have 72 yards per game as a damn tight end with Kyler Murray.
33:22Um, so like this narrative that Kyler Murray can't get it done with his top option.
33:26I think like there's a difference between like prime Justin Jefferson versus like the hope of Marvin Harrison over the last couple of seasons.
33:33Justin Jefferson's also my ninth ranked players who are back on track here together.
33:37We really are getting a discount and you outlined it well on one of the best wide receivers in the league because
33:43this offense finished 26 and scoring last year. And you know, the year before that with Sam Darnold, they finished ninth in scoring in 2022.
33:50They finished eighth in scoring as you noted, Nick Mullins, Josh Dobbs.
33:54A lot of other guys have played in this offense.
33:56Uh, it never looked worse than when JJ McCarthy was until until Brasmer showed up.
34:01Then until Brasmer showed up. Yes, that's fair. But despite all of that and like the 26 and scoring, Justin Jefferson still
34:07was wide receiver four and team targets will still wide receiver five and air yards.
34:11He still had 16 end zone targets, but only scored two touchdowns off of those.
34:15So everything was still going in his direction. The design of the system was still to get Justin Jefferson, the football.
34:21The quarterbacks just simply couldn't do it. So while I am not like a Kyler Murray apologist, I think that his play
34:28has not been great over the past couple of seasons, especially at the start of last year.
34:32All I'm asking is for Kyler Murray to follow the design of the play, like trust what Kevin O'Connell is building and,
34:39you know, staying tall versus pressure fire over the middle of the field.
34:42And if he does that, then Justin Jefferson is going to get right back on track and make us look good because
34:49we both have him above the 11th overall pick right now on Yahoo.
34:52And for stacking purposes, I do like the Kyler Murray price tag as well.
34:56So I think, I think there was kind of a big tier break after the top eight ish.
35:01So players like I think the difference between the Amon Rossi and Brown safety versus the Justin Jefferson, like is to me
35:08is like a mini tier right there. The Saquon Jonathan Taylor stuff, you know, like that's kind of like a totally different discussion.
35:14I think that Justin Jefferson is going to get back to the Amon Rossi and Brown tier in terms of fantasy production.
35:20But you have to admit like Amon Rossi safety versus the Justin Jefferson safety.
35:24Like there is a little bit of a difference right now.
35:27Totally. However, we are talking about the guy that finished wide receiver three in points per game with Sam Darnold and was
35:34the wide receiver five in points per game with Kirk Cousins and Nick Mullins.
35:38Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. I think all these guys are pretty freaking good at football.
35:42They're sweet. Yeah. Okay. Have you already talked about your 10th overall player?
35:46That's where I had Saquon and you had JT.
35:48Yep. Yes. All right. That brings us to number 11.
35:51Who do you have ranked? 11th? I think this is where it gets really difficult.
35:55I'm going with CD lamb. He is the ninth overall player in best ball and Yahoo ADP right now.
36:01I think there's going to be a difference between like the prime CD lamb years versus the one where he's now splitting time with George Pickens.
36:08I don't want to overstate that difference though, either though, because with George Pickens balling out lamb averaged 89 receiving yards per game on a 26% target share.
36:16He was a wide receiver eight on wide receiver six usage.
36:19He only scored a quarter touchdowns per game. Usually that's like 0.37.
36:23So he was not running hot on touchdowns this last season.
36:26I think that's kind of explains the difference between like where he was previously.
36:30Obviously 26% target share is still strong at points.
36:32It was over 30%. I think those little differences are the reason why we talked about CD lamb here versus, you know, next to JSN.
36:39But this is still the second fastest neutral paced offense.
36:42They're still top six and projected points this season.
36:45CD lamb's projected for 1200 yards this year. The offensive line looks in good shape, a head coach OC all back.
36:51So I feel really good about all this. Yeah.
36:53I also have CD lamb as my 11th overall player.
36:56However, I was writing all my notes and I couldn't tell how confident I was in it as I got through it all.
37:03Not, not because I don't think CD lamb is, is amazing.
37:06It did concern me though, that he actually ran a career low of routes from the slot last year at what?
37:12Like 35% of his snaps, which is pretty crazy to me now, obviously ankle injury and in week three stands out.
37:18And then maybe the quote unquote emergence of Ryan Flournoy, who is mostly a slot player, maybe kept CD lamb to the
37:24outside a bit more often compared to like the Jalen Tolbert's and whoever else in the world.
37:29Because I think like that's where he is really specialness comes from is this outside to inside inside, outside stuff.
37:34And you know, in our minds, we were all telling people to draft George Pickens last year.
37:39I'm sure many of you did that worked out incredibly well where George Pickens finishes the wide receiver six in points per
37:45game compared to CD lamb's wide receiver 11. And points per game at the end of the day though.
37:51I just came back to like variants just wasn't on his side.
37:54Yeah. I think I read that he ranked 200th across fancy football and points over expected.
37:59So he was on like a very negative end of all of that.
38:02And it only converted two of his 12 targets in the end zone for touchdowns last year.
38:07Yeah. My expected points. He was the wide receiver nine at 16.1 only scored 15.5, which would usually elite players are like clearly outscoring their expected points.
38:15He was actually below expectation there, which like you said, when Dak Prescott's dialed in and CD lambs, I mean, he had
38:21a couple like pretty key drops where it's like, Oh, what the hell is going on there?
38:26That stuff's going to kind of even out. But I think, I think your point is true.
38:31If I read my Drake London notes and look at the market projections for him versus CD lamb, there's like no difference.
38:37Their ADP is as widely, but the quarterback difference is massive.
38:40That's that's the difference alone. Um, but I, I do think that we're talking about a kind of a different tier here.
38:46And I think some of these running backs, if you really believe in the upside, I do think you can rank them
38:53ahead of the Justin Jefferson CD lamb tier. Interesting.
38:55I would almost put it as there's a top 10, then 11th.
38:58I would put CD lamb. And then I have a fascinating cluster of running backs here from 12 to many, many picks.
39:05This is where the episode starts right here. Yeah.
39:07Thanks for joining us. What? Uh, 40 minutes in to the episode.
39:11All right. With that said, who is your 12th overall player?
39:14I got Kenneth Walker here. I'm taking a stand.
39:16Uh, I feel really good about this after writing down all my notes, right?
39:20By the way, on Yahoo's ADP is at 21.
39:23So this is way, way different. I think if you can get him in the middle or the end of the second round, you're in really good shape.
39:31Want to go back to Andy Reed, do a little deep dive here.
39:34Back in the day, he had do Staley, Brian Westbrook, Jamal Charles, or Sean McCoy.
39:39If you guys were playing fantasy football then, and you had those running backs on your team, you were winning your fantasy league.
39:45And at one point before we got to Kareem Hunt and Clyde Edwards, Lair and those guys, Andy Reed was thought of
39:51as like the running back fantasy creator. And I, he actually were like Kenneth Walker reminds me of LaShawn McCoy in the
39:58final three seasons with shady and Andy Reed. His 17 game pace was 1800 scrimmage yards.
40:02There's no RB two on this team. Like Emmett Johnson is this big, was not a fan of it as a prospect.
40:08And Mario Di Mercado is kind of a past catching change of pace guys.
40:12Like we're talking about very low end backups. And with Patrick Mahomes, I don't think he's moving all that great in camp.
40:19It's good to see him out there. I think he's going to play week one.
40:23Most likely. I don't think he's going to be himself bring back the enemy.
40:27Who's better than Matt Nagy. And then for Kenneth Walker himself, I think it's the best offensive line he's ever played behind
40:33those Seahawks offensive lines throughout his rookie contracts. Weren't very good.
40:36I think Kenneth Walker is going to set a career high in targets by a lot.
40:41I think his rushing numbers are going to look fantastic on it in terms of efficiency.
40:45And I don't think that this offense could afford to not give him the ball 20 plus times per game.
40:51If that happens, he has a chance to finish in that top four mix.
40:55This is the old adage that there's always someone higher than you on a player that you think you're well above ADP on.
41:01And that's the case here. I mean, I've Ken Walker as a 13th overall player.
41:06And like I said, he's going as a ninth pick in the second round on Yahoo.
41:10He's a little bit ahead of that in best ball right now.
41:14Uh, I, I just see a phenomenal talent that once he was given the platform to showcase that in the most important
41:20games and like some of the most difficult defenses that he faced, guess what?
41:24He ran through him. He ran around him and he ran over him.
41:28Uh, I know he was drafted last year as the running back 10.
41:31Some of that was because of us, uh, and finished as the running back 28.
41:35We were right. By the way, look at the super, we were right in the end because if he was given the work, look what happens.
41:43And we always say Hayden that teams are honest with their wallets and with their draft picks.
41:48When you look at the chiefs offense this year, the only substantial move that they made both in the draft and in
41:54for agency was bringing in Ken Walker, the third, like, yeah, I understand if you look through the rushing attack last year
42:00and the underlying metrics, they had a high success rate.
42:03Now, a lot of that was because of Patrick Holmes is scrambling.
42:06And you know, if they needed two yards, Kareem hunt could get them three.
42:10They were hitting kind of singles in the running game, but what they told you by paying K nine is that that
42:17doesn't matter very much that that only gets you so far and that you have to generate explosives, especially if you can't create them in the passing game.
42:24And guess what? Now they can do that because Ken Walker is a game breaker.
42:29He's a game changer. Uh, and I cannot wait until he is behind, you know, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith and the
42:35rest of this offensive line, because I'm with you.
42:38Like the history shows itself that Andy Reed whispers to running backs and they have, I mean, Kareem hunt's rookie season was phenomenal.
42:44If we get that from K nine, then, uh, let's boogie.
42:47Yeah. Last three games, the postseason games, he had 35, 21 and 18 fantasy points as the bell cow here.
42:53Like that's like the pathway that we're going for.
42:55I also believe that he is one of the best running backs in the NFL.
43:00Like, I think that we're going to like, look at him as like one of the top tier, like not a top,
43:06like tier two, tier three running back. Like in the discussion as like a top five, top 10 running back across the league.
43:12Yeah. I mean, he's averaged 17 and a half fantasy points per game over his last 26 games that he's reached 60% snaps.
43:19I expect him to reach 60% snaps in every single game this season.
43:23Uh, yeah. I mean, I think this offense ranked like 20th in explosive carries last year.
43:27Disgusting. It's going to go to the moon. He also, two years ago caught over four passes per game.
43:32It was across 11, like the sample size of him, like being able to catch passes.
43:37I think it's been proven out. Like he has an upside there.
43:40I'm right there with you. Now, unfortunately my 12th overall player is James cook who I'm actually slightly behind Yahoo's ADP on.
43:47They have him 10th overall. Uh, and I have him 12th overall.
43:50Um, to me, his fantasy appeal completely changed over the last two years since he took on the red zone rushing role
43:56among the running backs here for the bills. I mean, in 2023, he had one rushing score inside of the 10 yard line.
44:03Move on to 2024. He had the eighth most carries inside of the 10 and 11 touchdowns last year.
44:08Again, the eighth most carries inside of the 10 yard line and six touchdowns.
44:12And if you look at other underlying metrics for James cook, they're all fantastic because guess what?
44:17This is a really freaking cool offense to run the football in.
44:20I mean, second in yards per rush, ninth in success rate, eighth in rate of runs of 10 plus yards.
44:26And then in terms of stuff rate, he had the second best mark in the league.
44:31So yes, they did lose their left guard. And yes, they added DJ more in the passing game.
44:36But I still think that James cook, despite me, you know, bringing up Ray Davis as a really nice backup running back
44:42every single year and some other guys they have on the roster to, uh, James cook, I think has established himself as
44:48like an explosive player and a very successful player in this office.
44:52I got James cook, uh, ranked 14th. He's somebody I've not been drafting a whole lot of, I don't have too many negative notes here.
44:59It's just breaking ties in favor of backs. I think have a higher ceiling just because he's just not caught that many passes.
45:05I think there's like a reason for that. It's like, you have Josh Allen, you don't need to check the ball down.
45:11And I think adding TJ more, who I think they should be getting in the manufacturer touch department, maybe Dalton Kincaid can
45:18stay healthier this year than where he was this last season.
45:21Like those are the type of guys, obviously Khalil Shakir, you like dink and dunk too.
45:25And James cook is like, yeah. Yeah. And Ty Johnson plays like real snaps in like two minute drill and those types
45:32of things where I think James cook, something would have to drastically change with his role to finish as like the RB one.
45:38That's fine. He was the RB six last year.
45:41He led the NFL most carries per game, 19 and a half rushing yards per game at 98 and a half.
45:47All of it was actually sustainable to like 5.1 yards per carry is totally reasonable when you play against or next to a dual threat.
45:54You're good. The offensive line's good. The other thing is like you lose your offensive line coach.
45:58Your coordinator is now a head coach for the first time.
46:02Like you lost a veteran guard, like these little things.
46:04I don't think they're going to make that big of a difference here.
46:08But in terms of like dreaming of like some total, total crazy ceiling, I think I just see it more with like
46:14the sake one Barkley, Kenneth Walker, Devon Adrian range rather than James cook.
46:18But I think the floor is like completely established here.
46:21Him in the second round. It makes a lot of sense.
46:24Your point on him likely not having a running back one overall season in his range of outcomes is a fair one.
46:30Again, I would rank B. John, Jameer, CMC, Saquon and Jonathan Taylor with, you know, a higher likelihood of that.
46:36I mean, canine maybe than James cook probably. But then I just look at this environment and think maybe this is hitting a triple, but maybe I'm okay.
46:44Yeah, exactly. And then someone else can, you know, get me to home base at the end.
46:49Yes. I think that's totally fair. I was just looking at his ADP was 10th overall.
46:53And I feel like usually there's a little bit higher of a ceiling, but his floor is outstanding when you're in this,
46:59this office, he's a very good player in the prime of his career.
47:03Four out of five offensive linemen are returning same play caller as it was this last season.
47:08He's good. You know, I don't have too many negative notes here.
47:11And if you play full PPR, Reeves noted this, that James cook has been a top 13 scorer in 20 of his
47:1733 games over the past two seasons. Only Bijan and Jameer Gibbs have more.
47:21Yep. So he keeps you in it every single week is one way of putting it.
47:26All right. Ken Walker is my 13th overall player.
47:29Who's your 13th overall player? I've got Devon H.
47:31And at 13th overall here, I understand the downside risk.
47:34You lose Mike McDaniel, who is excellent. Malik Willis, instead of two.
47:37I understand the concerns. I'm also looking at it where I know I have a superstar talent.
47:42I think the Dolphins offensive line is actually pretty good.
47:45I mean, Patrick Paul has emerged as a really strong left tackle, a really freak athlete, young player getting better.
47:51Aaron Brewer, Brandon Thorne said he was the best offensive lineman in the NFL.
47:55You can watch a highlight tape of Aaron Brewer getting into the second level and absolutely just shredding dudes.
48:00And then Caden Proctor is their left guard. So their entire left side, to me, looks really good.
48:05Caden Proctor's 360 pounds moves well. And I don't like Sloak that much, but he at least was there with Devon H.
48:11And last year, Mike McDaniel, they're going to pick up on, you know, get Devon H.
48:16in the ball on the outside and like figure things out.
48:19And then you look at the receiving work. How could he not finish with 80 plus targets this year?
48:24I mean, look at the receivers. I think even with Malik Willis, doesn't he like near the bottom of the list in terms of targeting running backs?
48:32I know this is like a tiny sample we're talking with here, but typically scrambling quarterbacks do not throw to their running.
48:38I think it's inexcusable to not scheme up four targets to Devon H.
48:42in per game. No, no matter what. And like, to me, it should even be higher than that.
48:47Like you, they're going to throw the ball. Every offense still throws the ball 25 plus times per game.
48:52Like you can only get so many targets to everybody else.
48:56I think it's way too easy to get Devon H.
48:58in the ball. And last note, I'll say losing Mike McDaniel does hurt.
49:02But having a dual, having a dual threat quarterback next to you also opens up another about one plus yards per carry more.
49:09We see this across every single running back in scheme out there.
49:12We have not seen Devon H. with a threat next to you, like stopping the zone read with Malik Willis in Devon H.
49:18is going to be a problem. So I think there's just no way that the Dolphins could not build their entire offense around him.
49:25Even if they're bad, I think he still gets it done.
49:28This hurts me so much. You know, last summer I was just relentlessly drafting Devon H.
49:33was one of my highest drafted players. If I was close to the turn, I think he's a superstar in the league.
49:39One of the more unsung superstars because he's not just an in-space runner.
49:43He actually can take break tackles between the tackles too.
49:46He's very successful there. Hayden Devon H. is my 18th overall player.
49:49I mean, maybe I'm wrong. I am. I'm a bit terrified by this environment and it goes from like the play caller
49:55to the offensive line and to losing Mike McDaniel.
49:58Like again, we just had Ryan on the show yesterday and Mike McDaniel in terms of 10 plus yard design runs over 70 games coached ranks third.
50:06Guess where Bobby Slick ranks, you know, 19. How much is that a Devon H.
50:10And stat though? I think that's the hard part to detangle here is like there's also really most of it.
50:15But I mean, Michael Daniel also was the architect of Kyle Shanahan's rushing game.
50:19Like he has been doing this for a very, very, very long time.
50:23And I know Bobby Slick during his time with Houston Texans.
50:26And I've actually been a bit of an apologist for Bobby Slick because that rookie season for it was CJ Stroud.
50:32He's just never had that great of a rushing attack other than, you know, Joe Mixon's let's say not 12th overall player rushing stuff.
50:39And then if you look at, you know, avoiding negative runs Bobby Slick's 25th on that list.
50:44So I love Devon H. I actually like Malik Willis as a late round quarterback dart because the rushing gives you the
50:50floor and then the passing is the upside. Greg Dolsich is like a tight end sleeper here.
50:55I just don't know among all this cluster of running backs.
50:58I mean, I think I have the most environmental questions about Devon H.
51:02And maybe that's clouding my judgment here too much.
51:04I think this we got to remember where we're starting off with.
51:08He averaged 20 fancy points per game last year, you know, but it's a totally different group.
51:12Chop off four fancy points, five fancy points per game.
51:15He still finishes in this range. Like I think the starting point is so high.
51:19And I don't remember the Dolphins lighting it up last year and he was still the RB five on RB five usage.
51:26Well, because I mean, the receiving work, the rush, the run system, like all of it was so exceptional.
51:31So exceptional. I just don't think it's going to be.
51:34And look, like you said, I think we do forget that Bobby Sloan coached under Mike McDaniel last year.
51:39So maybe he did pick up on a lot of stuff, but their offenses, the last time that Sloan had a system
51:46that he designed looked totally different than what they ran last year.
51:49Yeah, for sure. For sure. Bobby Sloan's got to step up here.
51:52Absolutely. Fully believe in you. And still the Dolphins are going to pick up touchdowns and yards this year in receptions.
51:58Like we have to throw them to somebody. Like I think Devon H would probably be a good start.
52:04We do plan on doing a round two and three version of this as well.
52:08So I'll have a lot more to say about Devon H and during that time, unless I move them to the, you
52:14know, the 15th overall player, the 12th overall player by, by that point.
52:18Okay. I already mentioned that my 13th overall player is Ken Walker, the third.
52:22So we're back to you, Hayden. Who is your 14th?
52:25I, that's where I had James cook. So back to you.
52:28Okay. Well, this is where I have a Martin Hampton.
52:31So maybe this is a similar conversation to one that we, we just had.
52:35Yeah. I mean, I don't want to just continue to wax poetic around Mike McDaniel, but guess what?
52:40Like that's a major factor and why I have a Martin Hampton ranked this high.
52:44I mean, running backs attached to Mike McDaniel over the last three years, Devon H and ranked as the running back five
52:50and points per game last season, running back 11 and points per game the year before that.
52:55And yeah, I mean, in 2023, he had both the running back three and running back four in points per game.
53:01And just the environment that McDaniel brings to the system.
53:04I mean, in Miami, his offense is ranked fifth in yards per rush, fifth in success rate and first and explosive place.
53:10And so you look at a Martin Hampton who has outstanding speed for his size.
53:14That's what pops off immediately for me. Like, I don't think he necessarily has a great feel for the position in terms of setting up defenders or lanes.
53:22He has like a different way of attacking final contact where he like spins and twists and turns all around it.
53:28But I'm kind of at the point where I want to set aside my individual evaluation of a Martin Hampton and just
53:34believe in what is being created here because the Chargers also have the fifth best offensive line, according to Brandon Thorne.
53:40And if you give a Martin Hampton space on 52 runs when he was contacted beyond the line of scrimmage last season,
53:47he averaged 7.4 yards per carry, which is seventh in the league.
53:50And he's going to get that way more than 52 times this season.
53:54I got a Martin Hampton 22nd overall. This is I would label.
53:57This is like the scariest fade of the season for me because like he's got home run ability.
54:02He's a goal line back and this offense could go absolutely crazy here.
54:06I just think the possible reasons why he finishes closer as like a low end RB one is this turns into maybe
54:12a little bit more of a committee than some of the other backs in there.
54:16I didn't love Hampton's pass protection. This is like not the biggest like concern, but I do think Kamani Vidal is good at that.
54:23And this might be more of a three running back rotation than a lot of like the either no rotation or that
54:29the one, two punch rotations of the other guys around them.
54:32But if he's so good, then like screw Kamani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell.
54:36And that's how he can finish as a top five fantasy running back.
54:40Um, maybe I just don't love those odds versus where he's going.
54:43Um, I was also looking at the Mike McDaniel stuff.
54:46Uh, this last season defenses were treating the rushing scheme a lot different and way fewer too high shell looks, uh, for,
54:52for the rush attempts, only 16% of the dolphins run last year, throw it down the field.
54:57Exactly. So that thing that's going to be the interesting part of this offense is how our defense is going to be
55:03scared of the too high shell because that's where Mike McDaniel was absolutely ripping these runs across and you just like get
55:10into the perimeter and bond agents is picking up 10 yards per carry.
55:13Or do they rotate him in the box and then make Justin Herbert went over the top.
55:18And that would be pretty exciting too. I think it's gonna be really good offense to kind of figure that out.
55:24But I do think that defenses have found some adjustments to like the peak seasons of like 2023 on crowding the boxes is kind of one of them.
55:32Uh, I think you are right. If he plays more of the passing down situations and if Keaton Mitchell is not averaging
55:38eight carries per game, and that's back to five, say four or five carries per game.
55:43And then I might be right. If Vidal is mixing in and Keaton Mitchell is getting eight carries per game, and then
55:49he's a electric player, but kind of inconsistent versus the other guys around.
55:53But I think a very difficult one. And if you wanted to rank him as high as like 10th overall, like I
55:59do see that the upside here at the same time, I think there's a chance for like everyone gets home in this offense.
56:05I mean, you know, the 2023 Miami Dolphins with Tua at quarterback scored the second most points at 29 per contest.
56:11And again, that was when they had two top four scoring running backs and point points per game.
56:16We know what Tyree kill and Joe and bottom, whoever else you want to throw in there did that season too.
56:22So like, there's a chance that everything is so good that it's not, Hey, you have to take from this guy to
56:29give to this guy that they all just get there with efficiency and stuff.
56:33And I think that is in the range of outcomes here.
56:36And I'll throw in that Amarin Hampton caught five or more passes in four of his games played last year.
56:41So I think there's a chance where they have some heavier looks where they keep in Charlie Kolar or they keep in
56:48Alec Ingold to help with this protection. And then they run like two man routes on the field with Amarin Hampton, like slipping out.
56:54And like, that's how we can get four or five, six catches per game.
56:58And that's a great point to Amarin Hampton. Just his receiving work is hard to get a good feel for because as
57:05a receiver, I think he's very good. And then in past protection, I thought he had no clue where he was going last year.
57:11So it's like another one of these things where it's like, I know he's going to catch a bunch of passes.
57:17It has to be kind of schemed up for him, but by committee, I was a pretty good guy to be in charge of that.
57:24So, all right, put a pin in that for our round two, three conversation here in the next couple of weeks.
57:30All right. We'll close it out here with our 15th overall player.
57:34Who's yours? I got Ash and Gentry here. There's a couple other players I have in consideration, like mainly Derek Henry.
57:40I keep going back and forth. So maybe if you have some notes to kind of split this tie for me, let's
57:46start with Gentry because he's 11th in best ball ADP.
57:49He's 12th in Yahoo ADP. And I know a lot of sharp people even have them higher than that.
57:54Starting point last year, RB 11 usage, like did not come off the field finishes the RB 16 and half PPR.
58:00Obviously the offensive line, Chip Kelly, everything was a stone cold disaster.
58:04That's going to get better. That's enough for him to finish as a top 10 fantasy running back this year.
58:09If he doesn't, that is a really, really bad, bad sign.
58:12My individual opinion on Ashton Gentry is that I also thought he was making bad decisions and did not have the play
58:19speed versus all the guys he's being drafted against.
58:21And I fear that he's going to be closer to Josh Jacobs, who I really like his rushing style, but it's a different tier player.
58:28And the offensive line is getting better. Linderbaum, Colton Miller coming back at left tackle.
58:32But the other guard spots, I think are still pretty bad.
58:36DJ Glaze, the right tackle. That's still pretty bad out there.
58:39And the entire offense like still could be, be pretty bad.
58:42Even if we think that they're going to get a little bit better.
58:45Uh, and there was pro case here as your 15th overall player.
58:49Well, he's not coming off the field. So there's that.
58:52And I could be wrong. That's the other thing is like, he could be awesome.
58:56Like he was, he's supposed to be awesome. I just wasn't getting the senses that he's going to like go crazy in
59:02terms of like, now he's just like ripping off explosives left and right.
59:06And it's like Saquon Barkley. I just don't think I saw Saquon Barkley on tape last year, even taking in the obviously bad environment.
59:13Yeah. What I loved about Ashton Gentry coming out of Boise state was his run stamina, how he could break like three, four tackles in the same run.
59:21And that would allow him to get, you know, 40, 50 yard touchdown runs.
59:25And then it wouldn't just be one time in a game.
59:28It would be multiple times in a game. And that style is just more difficult in the NFL.
59:33And it's especially difficult when probably at best, you have an average offensive line.
59:37Last year, obviously maybe the league worst offensive line.
59:39It's interesting. I'm looking at our colleagues here at Yahoo and you and I rank Ashton Gentry by far the lowest.
59:45You're at 15th overall. I'm at 17th overall. I don't want to out people, but like Joel Smith has him in ninth
59:51overall Harmon and Boone have him 11th overall. That's just too rich for me.
59:55And again, I just don't see how anyone can take, you know, him over Saquon Barkley, even if, you know, Ashton Gentry plays 88% of the snaps.
60:03This year. I just think like from an environmental standpoint and like big play potential, uh, Saquon is just a better pick here.
60:10I agree. There was a really cool research by Sam Hoppin.
60:13If you guys want to go read this column where he was looking at yards before contact, which everyone's like, that's our offensive line stat.
60:20And to some degree, it is an offensive line stat.
60:23He was trying to come up with like ways to like factor in what should the expected yards before contacts.
60:28And when he was looking at that, it's like, okay, are you running towards the perimeter?
60:33You get more yards before contact. That makes sense.
60:35How many defenders in the box is there? That makes sense to account for.
60:39He started accounting for all these variables, including the offensive line, including the dual threat ability of the quarterback.
60:45And then he looked at what are the running backs doing accounting for all the environment.
60:49And Ashton Gentry was the worst running back in football in terms of avoiding yards before contact, running into defenders, staying behind
60:56the line of scrimmage for too long where four players are coming and rallying before him.
61:00It was like the only running back to finish like below, uh, a certain point.
61:04And that's concerning. Cause that's kind of what I was seeing on tape.
61:08And like, if you like the really, really sickos and that know all this modeling and stuff, that's what they're coming up with too.
61:15Uh, it makes me a little bit nervous that he's going to be a fine player, but not, you know, the next B.
61:21John Saquon, those types of guys. Can we just take a moment for strategy corner real quick?
61:26Because if you're, I don't know, pick 10, 11, 12.
61:29Again, there's this cluster of running backs. You can go from James Cook, Gentry, Saquon, HN, Chase Brown, Hampton, Derek Henry, choose two of your favorites.
61:36Going with two of those and comparing that to let's say the running backs in round five and six, which are, you
61:43know, Dave Montgomery, Trevion Henderson, Quinn, John Judkins, Bucky Irving to, you know, round six, that's Chuba Hubbard, Jadarian price versus, you
61:49know, the wide receivers that are in rounds five and six, Terry McLaurin, Luther Burton, Christian Watson, Roma Duns, a Mike Evans.
61:55I mean, the list goes on and on like I would much rather take the package that it's those two early running
62:01backs and the two later wide receivers versus the two early wide receivers or even just one early wide receiver.
62:07And then having to take one of those running backs in that range.
62:11I see the same thing. I'll even say the round three, four turn has every one of the wide receivers that we
62:17are trying to break ties in favor of Jalen, Wad, I'll say Malik neighbors in that tier, Ladin McConkie, Mecca, you can
62:23pick a veteran and a young guy like Zay Flowers.
62:26There's literally 12 of them. You can go wide receiver, wide receiver in that range as well.
62:31So yeah, I think Derrick Henry is like the one name would be a regret not like involving in here just because,
62:37you know, he just, you know, finished as the RB8 with Lamar Jackson, not even playing that season.
62:42And he's projected for 12 and a half touchdowns in the betting market.
62:46That's the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL and the projections.
62:49And, you know, he's not a top 15 guy in half PPR that that might come back to bite us again.
62:55Yeah. Maybe I regret it too, because he's not my 15th overall player, but Hey, that that's a great lead into again,
63:01when we do the round two, three show. And, uh, you guys should subscribe to watch that one when it comes out and hits your feed.
63:08My 15th overall players, Chase Brown. Okay. And this is kind of, again, drafting the environment over the individual talent.
63:14Like as an individual player, I don't think Chase Brown belongs in that group of all the running backs that we just listed.
63:21Uh, so again, maybe that comes back to bite me, but what you are getting here is just a team that scores
63:27a whole bunch of points and literally zero competition.
63:29And it's not just competition between the twenties. It's also once you get inside the red zone where Chase Brown played 74%
63:36of the snaps last year, which is the running back five on the season.
63:40Um, obviously it was a bad start to last year.
63:42We all kind of regretted taking Chase Brown and that was, you know, aided by Joe Burrow going down.
63:48But once Joe Flacco was named the starter, instead of Jake Browning, they averaged, he averaged 105 yards from scrimmage over the last 11 weeks.
63:55That was eighth most among all backs. Um, and then when Joe Burrow returned, you know, peak form of this team, apex mountain, Chase Brown went nuclear.
64:03I mean, he was seven, excuse me, second in running back points per game.
64:06Uh, and hit, you know, 20 points per contest and half PPR scoring, which is exactly what you want.
64:12So the environment is simply sensational. They've returned all five starting offensive linemen.
64:16If they stay healthy, then at worst, I think there's like a league average offensive line.
64:20And, uh, again, that's just a situation that I want pieces of.
64:23And, uh, Chase Brown in round two, uh, is really appealing to me.
64:27Um, over the past two seasons, there's 21 games with Joe Burrow.
64:31He's the RB 12 on RB five usage. So like that goes to your point where he's like, not like the greatest
64:37player ever, but he's, he's a starting level player in this league.
64:40Just in 2025 though, there were six games with Burrow.
64:43So he was the RB five on RB four overall usage.
64:46Um, so seems getting better. The offensive line is way better now than it was before.
64:51Like that's where like Chase Brown could like be come one of these guys.
64:55That's like a, no doubt about it. Top 10 fans, you're running back.
64:58And then we're like looking at our gente teams were like, damn, like I'm watching Raiders games versus Bengals games.
65:04And I got, I got the Raiders running back.
65:07Here's a crazy stat for you from Reeves. The Bengals are currently favored in 15 games this year, heading into the season.
65:13They can win the super bowl. Like obviously that's how good this team is.
65:1715 games they're favored in. And you know, running back points are pretty freaking good in games that you win.
65:22Oh, and guess what? If they have to throw the ball and they're trailing, uh, only Devon H and B.
65:28and Robinson and Jameer Gibbs have more receptions than Chase Brown over the past two seasons.
65:33And I got the inverse of that. Uh, three or, uh, three or fewer yards to go.
65:37Uh, he was the RB two and rush yards over expected.
65:41He was RB eight and rushing success rate across all of the borough games, three yards, four yards doesn't matter.
65:46Um, so the efficiency rebounded as a rusher. I think that's a credit to like the Amarius Mims picks in the first
65:52round, just kind of figure out some of the guard spots that they have out there where all of a sudden the
65:59offensive line, you can like credibly say it's like a league average offensive line, not you know, 30th in the NFL.
66:05Yeah. But you know, keep drafting players on bad teams ahead of him.
66:08I think I need to move up. I think I need to move up.
66:12Chase Brown. If you read my chase Brown and my Ashton Denti thing, you'd be like, it's not even close.
66:18Yeah. Oh, I love it. I absolutely love it.
66:21What can go wrong? Uh, let's save the best for last.
66:24You ready? Stats versus film returns tomorrow. So you get a stats versus film episode for your weekend.
66:29So if you made it over an hour into this episode, let us know in the comments down below who we did
66:35not mention in our top 15s that you have in your top 15s.
66:39And let's say the biggest home run swing and shout, uh, I'll give a big, massive comment to down below.
66:44So let us know who you rank in your top 15.
66:47That's going to do it for us. Shout out to weaves and Mosho behind the scenes.
66:52I know all of you want our rankings. We'll have an announcement for that very, very soon for all of you to
66:58grab them and use them in your drafts this year.
67:01All right, everyone up the bill. We'll talk to you guys soon.
67:04See ya.
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