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Underdog Fantasy Football Show on Jaxon Smith-Njigba

PodcastThe First Round of 2026 Fantasy Drafts Is All Wrong
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There is regression coming. JSN's way. It's hard at like repeat 35% target share. Like that can be, you know, down to where Monrod at 32%, uh, yards per target, 10 and a half completion percentage over expected at plus 10%.
Mentioned at 21:45 – 22:24

STACKED’s take

Negative signalProjection

JSN's 35% target share and +10% CPOE are unsustainable; regression likely.

JSN likely to experience regression despite elite ranking. Unsustainable metrics include 35% target share (could regress to 32%), 10.5 yards per target, and +10% completion percentage over expected. Even with regression to 9.8 yards per target and +6% over expected (elite WR range), JSN could still finish as top-three fantasy WR. However, regression is coming; harder to repeat 35% target share. Concern about one-year sample versus multi-year proven performers like Matthew Stafford or Joe Burrow offenses.

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