PodcastFrom Underdog Fantasy Football Show

The Ultimate (early) 2026 Fantasy Football QB Rankings

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 28 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

May 22, 2026

Published

Fri, May 22, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

Jalen HurtsLamar JacksonMalik WillisBaker MayfieldBrock PurdyBryce YoungC.J. StroudCaleb WilliamsCam WardDak PrescottDaniel JonesDrake MayeJared GoffJayden Daniels

Player analysis

Player insights

Baker Mayfield

NegativeBust0:01

Baker Mayfield's performance is highly variable, and losing Mike Evans could further hinder his ability to produce consistent fantasy numbers.

Insight page

Brock Purdy

PositiveProjection0:47

Brock Purdy has consistently finished higher than his current ranking of quarterback 13 in points per game over the last three seasons, and he remains a reliable fantasy option despite a tougher schedule this year.

Insight page

Bryce Young

PositiveBreakout0:01

With anticipated changes in the offensive scheme and improved offensive line, Bryce Young could see increased passing volume and fantasy production in his second year.

Insight page

C.J. Stroud

PositiveProjection0:01

CJ Stroud's fantasy outlook is limited by a run-heavy offense and a strong defense, making it difficult for him to achieve higher fantasy production.

Insight page

Caleb Williams

PositiveBreakout2:23

Caleb Williams is being drafted as the quarterback six but has the potential to be a top fantasy performer due to his scrambling ability and arm talent.

Insight page

Cam Ward

PositiveBreakout0:01

Cam Ward has the potential for a significant jump in performance with new weapons and a better offensive scheme under Brian Dayball, making him an intriguing fantasy option.

Insight page

Dak Prescott

PositiveProjection0:34

Dak Prescott is projected for over 4,000 passing yards this season, and with a healthy CeeDee Lamb, he is expected to have a strong performance.

Insight page

Daniel Jones

PositiveProjection0:01

Daniel Jones's fantasy value is uncertain as he is being drafted lower than his previous performance suggests, but his athleticism could lead to a bounce-back season if he stays healthy.

Insight page

Drake Maye

PositiveBreakout0:27

Drake May's arrow is pointing straight up as he enters his second year with Josh McDaniels, and the addition of A.J. Brown could significantly enhance his performance.

Insight page

Jalen Hurts

NegativeProjection0:21

Jalen Hurts is projected to score around 8.5 rushing touchdowns this season, which is a significant drop from his previous high of 13 rushing touchdowns in 2024. This decline raises concerns about his overall fantasy value.

Insight page

NegativeRole0:22

Jalen Hurts has been less effective against zone coverage, and with the departure of A.J. Brown, his ability to perform at a top-three quarterback level is in question.

Insight page

Jared Goff

PositiveValue0:59

Jared Goff has been reliable and could be an upside quarterback two, especially with a strong supporting cast and improved offensive line, making him a solid option in favorable matchups.

Insight page

Jayden Daniels

PositiveBreakout2:47

Jayden Daniels, despite injury setbacks last season, has the potential to finish as a top fantasy quarterback due to his previous performance and new offensive scheme.

Insight page

Joe Burrow

PositiveProjection1:50

Joe Burrow is projected to have the highest touchdown total at 32.5 and is expected to surpass 4000 passing yards, making him a strong fantasy option this season.

Insight page

Jordan Love

PositiveProjection0:58

Jordan Love has the potential to perform similarly to quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence and Dak Prescott, but his lack of rushing usage and the Packers' low volume offense limit his fantasy upside.

Insight page

Josh Allen

PositiveProjection0:03

Josh Allen is currently the quarterback one and 27th overall player, showcasing consistent performance over the last four seasons despite a slight dip last year.

Insight page

Justin Fields

NegativeBust0:57

Despite being drafted early, there is overwhelming data suggesting Justin Fields has not performed well in previous seasons, raising concerns about his fantasy viability.

Insight page

Justin Herbert

PositiveValue0:30

Justin Herbert is being drafted as the 11th pick in the seventh round, which might be the best value at quarterback on the board given the significant improvements in his offensive line and coaching staff.

Insight page

Kyler Murray

PositiveValue0:42

Kyler Murray is currently being drafted as quarterback 17, which is too low considering his potential upside in a new offensive environment with the Minnesota Vikings. He has the ability to win weeks for fantasy managers.

Insight page

Lamar Jackson

PositiveDepth Chart0:41

Lamar Jackson is currently being drafted as the 53rd overall player in the middle of the fifth round, a significant drop from last year's 29th overall selection.

Insight page

PositiveRole1:00

Despite injury concerns, Lamar Jackson has the potential to bounce back and return to his previous elite form, especially with a new play caller in Declan Doyle.

Insight page

Malik Willis

PositiveSleeper0:54

Malik Willis is currently ranked as quarterback 17, but he has the potential to outperform that ADP due to his rushing ability and the new offensive scheme that could maximize his strengths.

Insight page

PositiveBreakout0:58

Malik Willis has shown potential in a small sample size, and with a two-year contract, he may have a chance to develop further, especially compared to other quarterbacks.

Insight page

Matthew Stafford

PositiveProjection0:53

Matthew Stafford finished last season as the quarterback three in points per game and has the potential to replicate that success this year, especially with the addition of Puka Nacua and a healthy offensive environment.

Insight page

Sam Darnold

NegativeBust0:01

Despite a strong supporting cast last season, Sam Darnold's fantasy production was limited, and he may struggle to replicate that success with changes in the offense.

Insight page

Trevor Lawrence

PositiveProjection0:39

Trevor Lawrence is projected to finish as the quarterback 11, significantly improving from his previous ranking of quarterback 19 last year. He was the quarterback one in points per game from week seven to the end of the year.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,071

0:00There has been a massive shift at the quarterback position in your fantasy football drafts.

0:04Last year, four quarterbacks went in the top four rounds.

0:07This year, just one quarterback drafted right now, Underdog, in the top four rounds.

0:11Hayden, simple question, why? Well, last year they didn't perform very well.

0:15So some of those players, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels got hurt.

0:18Jalen Hurts didn't have quite the same level season.

0:21And I was just looking over at four for four.

0:24They posted quarterback fantasy points by year by, you know, the first player, second player all the way down.

0:29And you can see in 2021 and 2022, quarterback scoring was off the charts.

0:33Even in 2024, quarterback scoring was really high as well, which is why we had this quarterbacks drafted so early.

0:39Then this last year, everything kind of fell off the clip.

0:43I think for the most part, that small sample size noise, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, these guys get hurt.

0:49We're not going to have the same type of finishes.

0:52And at the same time, maybe a little bit of the personnel stuff, a little bit more run heavy, a little less

0:58explosive down down the field because of the two high shell.

1:01I think that accounts for a little bit of it, but I don't think this is going to be like a forever downwind trail here.

1:09I think it's going to be these guys are going to bounce back here.

1:13The hard part is everybody's grouped together. And try to figure out which quarterback three versus quarterback five.

1:18I think that's the difficult part of the season.

1:21We talked about this among the tight end group, how that conversation, how that narrative has changed year to year.

1:26I would say over the last seven years, there's been a big shift in where to draft quarterbacks.

1:32Typically in all of your leagues out there that are redraft that are season long, you know, eight years ago, all about

1:38grabbing the late round guy with rushing upside. Then the entire fancy industry, they all fancy drafters like you got smarter and drafted those guys much earlier.

1:46I know I was in the camp last year of willing to draft only quarterback very, very early on.

1:52I'm not saying that that was wrong. I am saying that I think it's becoming more and more difficult to like find

1:58the one difference maker outside of the top 15 quarterbacks that then becomes a tried and true starter out there for the entire season.

2:05I mean, Drake may was the quarterback 13 last year.

2:08We ranked him even higher than that. And, you know, he finished as one of the top scorers.

2:13And in fact, Trevor Lawrence, I guess, really became that late rounder as they quarterback 19 last year and finished much, much

2:20higher than that for a vast majority of the season.

2:23Yeah. A lot of the guys like the Malik Willis, Kyla Murray tier, who I would kind of qualify as like this year's like sleepers.

2:30There's still, you know, ranks quarterback 14, quarterback 18 in that range.

2:34So I think it's gonna be pretty difficult to find that total freak that came out.

2:38I do think Jackson Dart was that to an extent this last season because he was so dynamic as a rusher.

2:44So rushing is always going to help out here a lot.

2:48I just will say a lot of the top 10 quarterbacks right in the smack in the middle of their primes.

2:54So I think it's a good year to kind of be buying into like the top 15 or so quarterbacks here.

3:00And I'm not doing as much late round quarterback because man, we have to figure out how, how many of Jacoby's percent

3:06starts are we getting the Falcons quarterbacks, those type of guys.

3:10So I'm kind of just hovering at the top.

3:12I'll also add that I believe that coaching changes and specifically offensive coordinator and play caller changes impact quarterback and quarterback scoring more than maybe any other position.

3:21And four of your eight top quarterbacks have changes in that department this year.

3:25So we're going to dive into all of that conversation here today.

3:28Again, this ends our early rankings for all these positions.

3:31We already have wide receivers and running backs and tight ends on the table.

3:35And trust me, we've got plenty. And I mean, plenty of fancy content with the only goal for you to win your fantasy league.

3:42So hit that subscribe button. And it's totally free to all of you.

3:46This will surprise no one. Josh Allen is your quarterback one on an island here as a 27th overall player with a

3:52jump to the next one down to 53rd overall.

3:55Why? He's just so consistent over the last four seasons.

3:58This is fantasy points over replacement per game, which is my favorite metric to look by position across positions.

4:04And he's finished 14th overall, 25th, 30th. And then last year, another 30th overall finish is ADP 30th overall.

4:09I don't know how you can argue against it.

4:12He took some more sacks this last year actually wasn't even his best season versus some of the other seasons that he just had.

4:19But in incomes DJ more who we didn't love the price tag that they paid, but DJ more is certainly an upgrade

4:25versus the wide receivers that they had. The offensive line is mostly back.

4:29They're switching out one guy. They're switching out the offensive line coach and obviously the new head coach, but it's an internal promotion.

4:36So I think for the most part, nothing's really changed with Josh Allen aside from, I would just say that the wide

4:42receiver group is a little bit better. And then hopefully Dalton Kincaid stays a little bit healthier this year.

4:48So I don't know what you can even say poorly about Josh Allen right now.

4:52I think there were only four weeks last season where he finished outside of the top 13 quarterback scores.

4:58I mean, he is the short yardage quarterback rusher now as well.

5:01So often we think of Jalen Hurts when we think about goal line scores.

5:05That is Josh Allen. He led the NFL of all ball carriers, including running backs with 13 rushing scores inside of the 10 yard line.

5:13And we'll talk about Jalen Hurts and his decline in that department too.

5:17And so, Hey, six points is more than four, which many of your leagues out there score passing touchdowns and six points

5:23and touchdowns matter in the end, more than anything when it comes to fancy points overall on Josh Allen continues to bring that to the table.

5:311.1 inside the five other carries per game, like easily the most, even ahead of Jalen Hurts.

5:36Like, I mean, that's, it's incredible stuff. Your next quarterback is Lamar Jackson and we're already starting a tier break here.

5:42He's your 53rd overall player right now. He's being drafted on underdog in the middle of the fifth round 55 overall.

5:48Once again, that's a massive shift versus where he was being selected last year as the 29th overall player towards the end of the third round.

5:56So why the big shift? And can Lamar Jackson get right next to Josh Allen by the end of the season?

6:02He absolutely can. You just can't trust him the same way you can with Josh Allen because of some of the injuries.

6:08And then also the Baltimore Ravens, they didn't really add to their skill group this season.

6:13So they got better on the, I mean, they probably got about the same.

6:17They lose Linderbaum draft a guard inside the top 14.

6:20But for the most part, it's like kind of the same thing with Lamar Jackson in terms of the skill guys and

6:26just like has not been good enough. And then Lamar Jackson just has been dealing with some of these injuries.

6:32And I hope that his hamstring is healthy and you can keep running around like he was.

6:37But last year, even aside from the hamstring injury, he just did not feel quite as comfortable inside the pocket as he

6:44did two seasons ago when I thought he was the best quarterback in the NFL by far.

6:49But he can easily get back there. So three previous seasons to the bad one last year, he finished 45th overall, 43rd overall, and then 24th overall.

6:57So I'm kind of believing in that three year sample size a lot more than this last one when he was like very clearly playing through injuries.

7:05So I wish the Ravens did more for him.

7:07I like Jesse Minder as the head coach, but offensive quarterback, coordinator wise and skilled position wise, nothing too crazy.

7:13I kind of love this price tag for Lamar Jackson.

7:16I understand it's just ahead of this huge chunk of quarterbacks that go in round six.

7:21I mean, right now there are five of them, but like at the start of round five, it's it's Dave Montgomery, which

7:27we really appreciate the volume that Dave Montgomery is going to get.

7:31But I think we can maybe poke a few holes in that profile because it is all volume based.

7:36And then it's like DJ more right in front of him.

7:39And again, that's a volume based wide receiver. At the same time, it could easily make the case that DJ more has

7:46had like his best season ever as a professional.

7:49It might be downhill from here. What I'm most fascinated by with Lamar Jackson, though, is Declan Doyle coming in as his

7:55play caller, because we saw Todd Monk and now the Browns head coach take him to the next level.

8:01So what will Declan Doyle do with him? I mean, Doyle comes from the Ben Johnson staff and the great Ted Nguyen

8:07over at the Athletic pointed this out that Lamar his EPA per drop back and under center play action over the last

8:13two seasons was number one across the league. So if we get like 10 to 15 to 20 percent more of that,

8:20which I expect here with Monk and who like to really spread things out, work in that shotgun aspect, that could be

8:26a really interesting and new wrinkle here from a former MVP quarterback.

8:30Yeah, Lamar Jackson play action rate last year was only at 23 percent, which is about league average.

8:35So that would be helpful there. You really just got to be back to full health.

8:40And, you know, he's still in the athletic prime of his career if he can get back on the football field.

8:46He was out there for what the first practice of the offseason.

8:49That was a big deal in Baltimore. We have to, you know, remove the flu like symptoms from the Baltimore area when

8:56it gets to November and holiday time in December.

8:59Yeah, I mean, he has missed games in five of seven seasons so far.

9:03Your next quarterback, I think, kind of goes against the grain of the styling of quarterback that we like to take recently at the top of drafts.

9:11That is Joe Burrow as your quarterback to 56 overall.

9:14Excuse me, quarterback three, 56 overall, just a couple of spots later.

9:17Five of this final six starts were quarterback 11 or better.

9:20So what are you expecting with the changes to the Cincinnati Bengals and how that impacts Burrow here?

9:26So we have underdog projections right now in the Pickham lobby for the upcoming season.

9:30He has the highest touchdown projection right now at 32 and a half for passing.

9:34And then he's one of just a handful of quarterbacks over 4000 passing yards.

9:38Obviously, that's what we should expect is he could be the league leader in the passing volume stats.

9:44He says this is one of the most talented rosters that he's been a part of in a very long time.

9:50And I do believe that the offensive line is not elite, but is way better than where it was three, four seasons

9:56ago when, you know, Joe Burrow was a top five fantasy quarterback.

10:00So it's just kind of gone. Is he healthy or is he not?

10:04And right now he's healthy, ready to go. And usually in the offseason, he's coming back.

10:08Yeah, but usually he's like on crutches at this point or all of a sudden he's in the hospital.

10:14I don't want to laugh at a guy who gets banged up, but like he has missed large chunks of seasons.

10:20You know, the last three years and offseasons like they simply have never had a easy preseason.

10:25That would go a long way here. It really would.

10:28Yeah, I think this is a great year to kind of like the Bengals, like reentering themselves into like the NFL conversation.

10:34Like the defense should be much better than it was last year.

10:38But just by default, they added some pieces this offseason in the draft and in free agency and especially in like the secondary.

10:45And then Joe Burrow is healthy. T Higgins and Jamar Chase are healthy.

10:49I think the offensive line is squared away. So like this seems like this could be, you know, the 4,500 passing yard season from Joe Burrow again.

10:56We're going to have this discussion with Dak Prescott to how even going from awful to average defensively.

11:02I think a lot of people out there might say, oh, that sucks.

11:06You know, they're not going to be chasing points.

11:08They're not going to be chasing scoreboard. It's not pure dropbacks every single time.

11:12My opinion with this has been wildly different than a lot of drafters out there where I actually like when defenses improve

11:19because it sets you up to have better field position.

11:22It sets you up to lead on the scoreboard.

11:24It sets you up to have more wins. It, you know, sets you up for shorter fields, right?

11:30And I think oftentimes we think about garbage points and only throwing and all that type of stuff in second halves.

11:36Whereas, you know, the best teams that win can also put up the most points.

11:40And I think Joe Burrow and the Bengals and Dak Prescott and Dallas Cowboys will actually benefit from having improved defenses.

11:46I think it's only a bad thing when your defense is really elite and you're just blowing teams out and then you're

11:53not getting third and fourth quarter production. But if you have an OK defense in your the games are tight, you're passing the ball.

12:00If you have a Joe Burrow and if your defense stinks and you're trying to come back, you're still passing the ball.

12:06So I think the only thing with if Joe Burrow all of a sudden had the best defense in the league, which

12:13we are a decade away from that ever being a possibility.

12:16I think it's fine either way. Like we've talked about it with Jalen Hurts in the past where how few passes he's

12:22attempted in second halves and fourth quarters. But at the same time, in those seasons, Jalen Hurts is also a top three, top five quarterback score.

12:30Because if your team is leading by that much in second halves, then your quarterback has probably had a heavy hand in producing points on the scoreboard.

12:38Yeah. Other note here, similar to this strength of schedule, like over the last week or so, there's so much strength of schedule analysis.

12:45I just looked at the difference between the easiest strength of schedule and the least difficult strength of schedule from this last season.

12:52The EPA difference is like point one. It's almost nothing.

12:55So we make a big deal out of it because there's nothing to say in a strength of schedule.

13:00It doesn't really matter over the entire course of the season.

13:03We can nitpick like, hey, we like this guy in week one and we should focus on that.

13:09But over the entire course of the season, it doesn't really matter.

13:12I'd say how good your defense is also largely doesn't matter.

13:15Okay. Your first, I wouldn't say big shift, but shift from ADP where the public is drafting is you have Caleb Williams as your quarterback for right now.

13:24He's being selected as the quarterback six, but again, in that same round six territory.

13:28So what gives you the confidence to put Caleb here?

13:31He's just like bread for fantasy points. So the way that he scrambles around, he can be used inside the red zone.

13:37He could have crazy explosives down the football field and the arm talent is just so out of control.

13:43And his just ability to throw on the run is so out of control that I just want to believe in him

13:49going to his third season, his second season with Ben Johnson.

13:53I want to believe in Colson Loveland, Luther Burden and Roma Dunze.

13:56He has like a very real trio moving forward.

13:59The offensive line, they fixed it the last season.

14:01They've got a little bit of a left tackle issue right now, but they've got a lot of depth to throw at it.

14:08I just fully believe in Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams in the playoffs and in December looked a lot better and more comfortable than he did in September.

14:16And then some of the initial reports out of training camp and before that.

14:20So I'm just like believing in the trajectory here when he was coming out at USC, he was supposed to be like

14:27one of the best players in the NFL. And like what happens in like year three, year four, year five, that's when we actually see it.

14:34So I'm pretty much like throwing away the rookie season.

14:37I'm throwing away some of the September games. And like we kept talking about on stats versus films, like, hey, you watch the Bears game on review.

14:45And then we both say yes, as like Caleb played way better than he did the previous week.

14:50We kept saying that. So I just think that I'm going to take that and push it to this next season.

14:57And last year he was already the quarterback seven.

14:59Yeah, I mean his I would say athleticism pops his scrambling pops and kind of feel for that area.

15:05His arm obviously is outstanding when on the move.

15:07The torque that he brings the table is simply fantastic.

15:10And with that said, there are still obvious areas where he can improve his game.

15:15And if those get better and namely like these intermediate and specifically downfield passing, I'm not saying it's all him.

15:21You know, some of it's the connection that he had with DJ Moore or lack of with Roma Dunze.

15:26Shout out James. Then, you know, the timing, the placement, a lot of those passes being on, you know, the same area

15:33of the field and on the same wavelength. It just wasn't there enough.

15:36Hopefully more time on task, more time together here in year two of this entire system and this almost all entire personnel comes back together.

15:44And that simply improves because the arm is certainly there for him to be one of the best vertical passers and downfield passers in the NFL.

15:51We just haven't seen that like work itself out game to game.

15:55So far, his accuracy has not been that of the first overall pick yet.

15:59And hopefully he kind of squared that away. And I think that playing on time, you know, his wide receivers being in

16:05the right spot, they're not running out of bounds in the middle of the plays.

16:10Those type of things, I think, will improve kind of the little weaknesses that we still have.

16:15Yeah, look, progression isn't linear, but you can see in this chart from like week 13 and then you get to week

16:2117 that like that's a pretty good trajectory. And that's certainly what it felt like for a large portion of his season

16:28that the stats might have some blips and some holes in them.

16:31And again, certainly not a perfect and complete player at this point.

16:35But I think the tools are there for him to be a complete player on top of it.

16:40All right. Jayden Daniels is up next as your quarterback five, someone who I was relentlessly drafting right now and previously last year.

16:47And that didn't work out because of an injury.

16:49And I was drafting him mainly in that area because his rookie season, he finished as the quarterback five in points per game.

16:56So I might argue we're getting a bit of a discount here because of that second season.

17:01Yeah, last year, I'm like largely just throwing it away.

17:04I mean, he was injured the entire time. We got a new play caller in there two seasons ago as a rookie.

17:11He was the 39th overall player in that metric.

17:13I keep referencing. He's being drafted way after that.

17:16I rank him way after that. So there's room for upside with Jayden Daniels here.

17:20I will say the skill group is not my favorite.

17:23They have no running backs. They have, I guess we like Chico Cuonco and they're blocking tight ends to some degree.

17:29We like Terry McLaurin, maybe more as a fringe two slash one than a true number one.

17:34And they don't have a wide receiver to wide receiver three right now.

17:38Unless Antonio Williams becomes a guy. So there's a way where all this stuff kind of pieces together.

17:43And Jayden Daniels is amazing. He also is one of the guys is the most narrowly built quarterbacks like we've ever seen.

17:50And then unfortunately, it was like three different injuries last season because of him getting hit specifically.

17:55So I think that he's going to project extremely well whenever he's out there.

17:59And then I would put him towards the top of most likely to miss time because of his play style and size.

18:05I can't wait to see him in this change of an offense like the cliff King's very stuff his rookie year.

18:12They really took it easy on him early on.

18:14It was quite simple, quite basic. But man, he mastered all of that.

18:18And then Cliff kind of added more and more as the season went along.

18:22A lot of stuff was wide open. There was yards have to catch opportunities.

18:26But again, he had playmaking ability and they maximized everything with it.

18:30Now you have David Blau in his really first time calling plays.

18:33He was already on the staff. So it's not like he doesn't know Jane Daniels or doesn't know his skill set.

18:39But they really want to kind of combine this Ben Johnson-esque passing game.

18:43I mean, from our buddy Rich Rebar, Jane Daniels only has 33 dropbacks from under center so far in his career.

18:49That has led to just overall an offense with low pre-snap motion, 24th in that same span of time, and then 18th in play action.

18:57So if you're talking about this styling of an offense that they want, you're going to be top 10, top 12 in both pre-snap motion and play action.

19:05And if Jane Daniels can handle that, and if this offense, despite the lack of true difference makers, can handle that, then

19:11I think that Jane has a chance of finishing, I think, as the overall quarterback one this season.

19:17Again, despite having a lesser surrounding cast than many of the names we're going to talk about here.

19:22He's going to have to rip off some explosives and really showcase that elite speed that he has.

19:27And he has to be at full health in order to do that.

19:31But I do think this entire tier that we're talking about, they have the chance to match Josh Allen, if not surpass him in the best of seasons.

19:39And then I had the same exact notes for the play action.

19:43Caleb Williams was second in play action rate last year.

19:46Jared Goff was top 10. And then you have to scroll all the way down to find Jane Daniels, like you said.

19:52And I found it interesting that Marcus Mariota was actually really high on play action rate last year in the same exact offense.

19:59So they're still trying to figure things out exactly up front, skill possession wise, the offense in general.

20:04Jaden's just been a fantasy football print fest, even going back to the LSU days.

20:08Now, they have invested a ton in the offensive line.

20:11Like it's Larry Tunsell. It's Sam Cosme at right guard.

20:14Josh Connolly at right tackle. They bring the same left guard back in Chris Paul and a different center now with Tyler Biotish.

20:21But at that same time, if that group stays healthy, that should be, again, a platform for them to work off of.

20:28They did give away their starting center, Tyler Biotish, for nothing.

20:31And that was something that was very commanders. Wasn't reading the market very well with how all these centers were getting paid.

20:37No, the Chargers signed up for more money than they saved by releasing it.

20:41Never, never good. Very, very true. By the way, my voice, I apologize for it.

20:46Just the greatest football club in the world. You know, just our European champions.

20:50So, you know, had to rep it and lose my voice a little bit.

20:54Okay. Jalen Hurts is your quarterback six. Big conversation here.

20:57All right. We know about the passing struggles last season.

21:00We know Sean Mannion was brought in, former quarterback himself, to fix things.

21:04We can talk about the passing here in a moment, but maybe more from a fantasy lens, Hayden.

21:09My big question is this. Seven rushing touchdowns inside the 10-yard line last year.

21:13In 2024, that was 13. Is this a concerning trend for us?

21:17Well, we talked about this with Dallas Goddard. There was a couple of those, like, tush pushes that he was flinging the

21:23ball over to Dallas Goddard for a touchdown himself there.

21:26So, yeah. I mean, 13, 15 rushing touchdowns. Like, those type of seasons are, like, the outlier seasons.

21:31And that's when Jalen Hurts was right up there.

21:34I was, like, in the mix for quarterback one overall.

21:37Now, the baseline projection whenever you're doing things is, like, Jalen Hurts is going to score eight and a half touchdowns this upcoming season.

21:44So maybe the offense wasn't quite as good as we were hoping for last year, and it came down even further than that.

21:51I think the baseline would be somewhere between those two numbers that you just threw out there and that he will finish in this range.

21:58I think, like, to me, the biggest thing with Jalen Hurts is how good is the offensive line?

22:03Because last year it was more mediocre than elite because of all the injuries.

22:07And now all those guys are back and they're healthy today.

22:10But it's about, you know, is their back going to give out?

22:14And then second is Jalen Hurts has been fantastic against man coverage because he has two superstar wide receivers.

22:20Well, one of them is not on the team anymore.

22:22And I really like Mekhi Lemon and Eli Stowers is interesting.

22:26But it's not A.J. Brown in his prime. And Jalen Hurts has not been, like, Mr.

22:30Read It Out against zone coverage. So is Sean Mannion good enough versus what we've been dealing with at O.C.

22:36to make up for the difference between prime A.J.

22:39Brown and Jalen Hurts was a top three fantasy quarterback versus where I think I'm more comfortable with him?

22:44He's going to be a mid-range quarterback one. I think the odds of him getting back to the top three are not my favorite.

22:51And that's why he's now in the 60s, 70s rather than in the 30s or 40s.

22:56You know, we've seen two drastically different, let's say, on the spectrum play callers here for Jalen Hurts.

23:01You have the ones that go on to be head coaches in Shane Steichen and Kellen Moore.

23:06And they can coax, pull, like, certain elements of Jalen Hurts' game where he's uncomfortable, but they make him trust them.

23:13And he can, you know, work multiple parts of the field.

23:16The other ones in the Brian Johnsons and everything else that we've gotten since then, it just doesn't work.

23:21And when it doesn't work, like, Jalen kind of goes into a shell and it really impacts the passing game because only certain concepts can be run.

23:29Like, I don't think that Jalen Hurts is going to miraculously be better at targeting certain areas of the field that he didn't love before.

23:37But the big key is, can they run the ball successfully in order to generate single high looks?

23:42That is the entire difference, right? Can Saquon Barkley and this offensive line be ahead of the chains and create explosives enough

23:48that you can have Devontae Smith and Makai Lemon work man-to-man coverage and single high looks?

23:53And if that's the case, then you're going to have a really successful season.

23:57So as, you know, critical as I am of Jalen Hurts is like a pure passer.

24:02I can also say it wasn't just him why the offense was different last year.

24:06And I would say even more so, it was the regression of the rushing game.

24:1117th in EPA per carry last year. So right there in the middle of the pack that used to be first or second every single season.

24:18So he's a system of, you know, the Eagles like just elite front office and skill players and offensive line.

24:24And when he has it all, he can win a Super Bowl with ease.

24:28And then when it starts to fall apart, he looks more average.

24:32So I think we're probably in the middle of the both polls because I thought last year play calling wise for the

24:38Eagles was pretty close to a disaster in terms of like scheming things up and pass protection rules and that type of thing.

24:45And I'm guessing that's just going to get a little bit better, even if we are going to miss AJ Brown.

24:51Not like AJ Brown was like an all pro player of last year.

24:55No, he's definitely had his flaws last year, too.

24:58He Jalen Hurts was being drafted as the 43rd overall player last season and is being drafted as the 67th overall player this year.

25:05Another thing from Ted Nguyen over at the athletic, the Packers ranked fourth in explosive rush rate from shotgun over the last

25:11two seasons where Jalen Hurts loves to live. Outside of what that Vikings game last year where they scored like two big

25:17time touchdowns that, you know, was going back against their tendencies.

25:21And then he's like, actually, I'm never doing that again, despite it working.

25:25Obviously, Sean Mannion is coming from that Packers coaching staff.

25:27And since 2020, Jalen Hurts ranks 85th of 88 eligible quarterbacks in percentage of throws between the numbers below 15 air yards.

25:34So, again, it goes to areas of the field that he is simply not comfortable with.

25:39But, again, he is just tied to like the rushing success because that gives them advantageous looks that he can maximize.

25:45I will say that Packers offense is very vertical, you know, and the shotgun play action vertical shots.

25:50That's kind of what Jalen Hurts is good at.

25:53So, like out of all of the there's there's a lot of similarities between the two.

25:57So I think that I mean, obviously, how he Roseman's in a really smart GM him looking at this Packers offense and

26:04being like this is the best version for my quarterback is just smart game planning by them.

26:09And I do think the offense is not going to feel a whole lot different than what it was the last couple of seasons.

26:16Hopefully just like the down to down consistency and like all the little details that we're not privy to.

26:21Hopefully that just gets cleaned up. Plus, you know, Dickerson playing better.

26:25Like Jordan Love, you wouldn't say that he is a dice him up over the middle field type quarterback.

26:30He's more of an ambitious thrower down the field, outside the numbers, all that type of stuff.

26:35I do want to rewind this quickly to the start of this conversation.

26:39I mean, Jalen Hurts just isn't the type of mover and scrambler and athlete that he was, I think, a handful of years ago.

26:46There was that game early on in the season where he basically won it because of his scrambling.

26:52But I actually think that he is less willing to take a pounding when it comes to the tush push and the short yards rushing things.

26:59So I think I'm a bit more skeptical of him, you know, getting back to a double digit rushing score or even

27:06close like the 13 that he had a couple of years ago.

27:09Yeah, I think that's probably pretty fair. He's at 474 rushing yards in the projections right now.

27:14Who's quarterback six this last season? It probably that feels about right to me.

27:18Next up. Drake May in this same tier. What a season for him last year.

27:23Talk about ambitious throwers just launching the pill to a lot of wide receivers like Kayshawn Booty that we didn't have a lot of expectation for.

27:30You get Matt Collins out there now. Not too much has changed as of this moment.

27:35We are hoping that AJ Brown joins the party here after, you know, June 1st.

27:39And if that's the case, Hayden, what can Drake may be here in year two with Josh McDaniels and staff?

27:45Yeah, I mean, his arrow is just continuing to point straight up.

27:49The offensive line is still a little bit shaky to me at left tackle there.

27:53He's got a new center in there. He's never played NFL center before.

27:57So there's some parts of this Patriots offense that is not perfect.

28:01But the skill group, we're going to feel a lot better with AJ Brown there.

28:05They've got some depth and Kyle Williams, Eli Raritan is the tight end to now instead of Austin Cooper.

28:10So it's not the worst case scenario for Drake May.

28:13I will acknowledge there's some negative regression stuff just based off the profile here.

28:18Last year, he led all quarterbacks and completion percentage over expected, which is how often you complete passes versus how far the

28:24ball is being thrown down the football field. He was by far number one in that metric.

28:29That typically kind of comes down a little bit.

28:32And a lot of that was because all of his numbers, like 20 yards down the football field and more.

28:37It's like, I mean, he didn't miss the entire football season.

28:41So maybe he's that good. But and this is just what we're going to get used to here.

28:46Didn't want to mention six, four, two 30. And he can run like Josh Allen.

28:50So like we don't see like the crazy rushing stuff like we have with Josh Allen.

28:55It's it's within his capabilities if they ever wanted to pull that trigger.

28:59Yeah, I think you can do more than he did last year.

29:02And, you know, going back to his rookie season when it was turmoil with John Mayo and company, they didn't have a

29:09design run call from him at all. Obviously, his scrambling is outstanding.

29:12He did have 450 yards, which is the fourth most among all quarterbacks last year.

29:17But it did stand out to me just for rushing scores.

29:20Like I think he has it in his back pocket that he could have a like Trevor Lawrence.

29:25What is it like nine rushing score season, seven rushing score season?

29:29If just a couple things go a bit differently inside the seven or inside of the five yard line.

29:34That's just, you know, kind of the regression area of the field where it sometimes works out for the Russian quarterback and the scrambling quarterback.

29:42And sometimes it doesn't. Other things people are going to talk about the strength of schedule from this last season.

29:48It's like I really struggled in the playoffs, which like there is definitely like a degree of some truth to that.

29:54That said, I have my my new website here.

29:56I have filters where you can change it by how good the defense was.

30:00And when he's playing above average defense, the Patriots were still fourth in EPA for drop back.

30:05That includes those postseason games on top of that.

30:08So in general, quarterbacks are just as good in year three as they were in year two.

30:13And we're about to get better at the skill group here.

30:16So Drake may this is a little bit lower than where he ranked last year because of the regression stuff.

30:22But all these guys could finish as a quarterback one, two or three.

30:26And that's why they're all grouped right next to each other.

30:29Well, let's talk about the next name because he is your quarterback eight.

30:33And I believe he's being drafted as the quarterback nine.

30:36He's going to start the next year. I would argue as we go throughout this offseason, I think he's going to vault up into the next grouping.

30:44And I think you can make an argument that Justin Herbert selected right now as a 11th pick in the seventh round

30:50might be the best value at quarterback on the board.

30:53What are you expecting here with, I mean, some significant changes just from getting two healthy first round offensive tackles back and

31:00adding Mike McDaniel as a play caller. Yeah. And in the interior to be outage is like a real center.

31:05We're complaining with Jada Daniels like they just added him as well.

31:09So they have to figure out the guard spot.

31:12But in between the guards, you have very good players at all spots.

31:15Obviously, we have a lot of faith in the coaching staff and Justin Herbert to figure it out.

31:21The skill group is largely the same as it was this last season.

31:25I just think they're going to be way more dynamic with McDaniels, who we love versus, you know, the great Roman of it all.

31:32So he's somebody that I think the pick a lobby, he's sitting there a little bit too low.

31:37His passing touchdowns only at 24 and a half.

31:40His passing yards are in the middle of the 3600 club.

31:43I like him more than that. Last year's staff, it's hard to even like factor any of it in because he was just getting absolutely hammered.

31:50I mean, like I don't even know what you can say about any of last season.

31:55And still, he was a quarterback 14. I mean, with Greg Roman and no offensive line.

32:00There are some on-off splits, Hayden, that just let me say some words here because he was the quarterback two and overall

32:06scoring through nine weeks before the Joe Alt injury.

32:09Wow. Now he gets Ray Sean Slater, Joe Alt, Mike McDaniel, as you said, Tyler Bejadish.

32:14And look, Mike McDaniel, defense is caught up to Tua's limitations, right?

32:17Certain areas of the field he could not throw to.

32:20Certain time to throw, he can't hang the ball, right?

32:23Physical limitations in terms of an athlete outside and on extended plays.

32:26He just doesn't have it. Herbert doesn't have any of those limitations.

32:30So, like, what is Mike McDaniel, who already generated a top five, top six offense with the quarterback with major limitations?

32:36Going to be able to do here with Justin Herbert.

32:39Herbert, again, citing this 10 to win piece, Mike McDaniel discussed in his news conference last week that maximizing the yardage when

32:45Justin Herbert threw for 2.4 seconds or faster. He talked about changing his footwork and changing where his eyes are on those concepts.

32:52That change will allow Herbert to get rid of the football faster, more accurately, which should lead to more yards after catch opportunities.

32:59We know last year, all those passes were kind of static.

33:02It was hitches. It was just stuff to Greg Roman specials, and we hated it.

33:07So we have, like, the extended play, put the team on your back stuff with Justin Herbert when you need it.

33:13And now there's just going to be easy button stuff more often, too, if he gets in sync on the timing and rhythm and the landmarks of everything.

33:21I am so excited for this. I understand there's a section of football, you know, podcasting and Twitter and content out there

33:27that hates us glowingly talking about Justin Herbert. But, man, this stuff can go to the moon this year, and I'm so pumped for this combination.

33:35If man, yeah, I think that he belongs in this tier because he's just not going to run quite as much to

33:41be a top three fantasy quarterback over the course of the season.

33:45But I would be stunned if he's not a top 10 quarterback this year.

33:49The Chargers are going to win a lot of games.

33:52Well, with that in mind, the people are drafting pocket passer Dak Prescott ahead of Justin Herbert.

33:57So what are your thoughts on Dak heading into another season with two elite wide receivers on the outside and the inside?

34:03He's one of three quarterbacks projected for over 4,000 yards in the underdog pick-em lobby right now.

34:08And, I mean, this offense returns everybody and will actually have CeeDee Lamb probably for the entire season rather than him missing

34:15about half the quarter of the season due to injury.

34:18So this offensive line is not as good as where it was when Dak Prescott was like an MVP candidate, but it's functional and it all returns.

34:26And now he has, you know, freaking George Pickens as a two, even though he might be like a top 10 freaking receiver in the NFL.

34:33So he's in the ball out. There's nothing negative I can say here.

34:37Maybe two years ago, I thought his accuracy was falling off.

34:40And he was like forcing those like seam balls, which he always does.

34:44But the accuracy wasn't there. At the same time, he's playing through injuries in that season.

34:49This last year, all the accuracy numbers that I look at completion percentage over expected.

34:53They all go back to where his rest of career baseline looks.

34:57So there's not like an age cliff that we're worried about or too many injuries.

35:01Two years ago, he was just injured. We're not expecting him to be injured right now.

35:06So I think that he's going to throw the ball around the yard.

35:10And I think this team is going to be really good.

35:13I already mentioned the defensive changes and how the improvements can actually help Dak Prescott.

35:17Also, Dak has been a top eight score in points per game in five of his past six seasons.

35:23He's just so effective, so efficient, throwing those seams, throwing those downfield passes.

35:27And so while he's listed as quarterback nine, we can have some injuries ahead of him that vaults him into that quarterback eight.

35:33Like Dak is, I think, one of the safest picks out there, despite him, you know, really not having any of that scrambling juice.

35:41As he used to prior to those, what ankle injuries, those foot injuries.

35:44And then now he's just still so cerebral, I think, as a pocket passer.

35:48Yep. George Pickens round three. Sometimes you can get him with Dak Prescott.

35:52I mean, that's that's easy money right there. Let's talk about Jackson Dart, who's being selected 91st overall.

35:58You have him 89th overall. Interesting rookie season with play calling, not changes, but head coach getting fired midseason, despite him, you

36:04know, doing some really solid things and really good things here with Jackson Dart.

36:08And now it's not Nagy entering the time frame.

36:11So will we see the same nine rushing touchdowns in 14 games that Jackson Dart played last year?

36:16Probably not. Brian Dable definitely wanted Jackson Dart to get going there.

36:19That said, Jackson Dart is like a really thick quarterback who's got athletic traits and like he's ran throughout his entire collegiate career on top of that.

36:27So he's not going back to zero when it comes to the rushing stuff.

36:32It's going to be somewhere in, you know, the Dak Prescott range where you're adding some in the prime of your career,

36:38even though you're not going to be Jalen Hurts.

36:41I will say this. He didn't have any games with Malik neighbors last year, and he was still a quarterback one for the season.

36:48Like that's that's outrageous stuff. And his EPA per play and success rate were about league average when he was throwing to

36:54Wandale Robinson as by far his best wide receiver.

36:57The hard part is Malik neighbors is probably going to miss September.

37:00So like if you're only drafting for a redraft, the Jackson Dart projections might not be quite as good.

37:06But by the end of the season, if Malik neighbors is like back to himself and Jackson darts taking his second year

37:12leap and reading things out, because last year he he was explosive in every capacity.

37:17Reading things out was still there's some development that needed to happen, and we should expect that to only get better moving forward.

37:23He had some crazy splits with Cam Scadaboo as well.

37:26I think that Nagy offense is going to be generally pretty balanced here, but it is Matt Nagy, and we've not we've

37:33not loved him calling plays whenever he has. I wanted to get a temperature check from you on Matt Nagy and Jackson

37:39Dart, because like if Todd Monken didn't get the head coaching job with the Cleveland Browns, he was going to be the offensive coordinator here.

37:47And I think you and I would have been freaking excited for that.

37:50Yes, Matt Nagy a little bit less because like there's nothing.

37:54I would say exciting about Kansas City system over these last couple years.

37:57And now that's not even Andy Reid calling this offense.

38:00It's Matt Nagy calling it. And like there's also been tons of conversation about how run heavy Harbaugh wants this Giants offense to be.

38:07So just temperature check overall with the Giants passing game.

38:10I think they will be really run heavy. I think they're going to lean on Cam Scadaboo a ton, but I also

38:17think they're going to use Jackson Dart and they can steal a lot of the concepts they had with Lamar Jackson, with

38:23Jackson Dart, even if they like the rushing styles are a little bit different there.

38:28So I still think the rushing stuff is going to be like help him be a top 12 quarterback.

38:33I would be I will not be stunned if this is a bottom 10 and neutral pass rate in just like pace of play.

38:40The offensive line should be better, though. You get Andrew Thomas like not dealing with crazy injuries.

38:45Francis Malinoa moving to guard is like a total brick house up front.

38:49So that's really promising. And then this is another one of these defenses, Josh, whereas like they were dead last in like every rushing category.

38:56Like they could not get off the football field.

38:59So there were many second halves where the Giants would just like not have the ball a ton because their run defense was so bad.

39:06And that should get a lot better. Even if they traded away Dexter Lawrence, like Harbaugh being in there, they draft Sonny

39:13Styles or Arvin Arvel Reese that high. And I think the defense should look a little bit better, too.

39:18Yeah, we've heard from Harbaugh that the world might end if they give up an average of 4.1 yards per carry on defense.

39:25So we don't want the world to end. We want to watch some football games.

39:29That's for sure. All right. My guy, Trevor Lawrence, winds up as your quarterback 11.

39:34He's being drafted around in that same area. Last year at this time was being selected as the quarterback 19 and drastically overperformed that.

39:41And to the degree, Hayden, from week seven to the end of the year, Trevor was the quarterback one in points per game.

39:48Yeah, I have it when Jacoby Myers was a part of the football team.

39:52He was the quarterback two. That's the last eight games, including the NFL postseason, only behind Josh Allen.

39:57And without him, he was the quarterback 15. So it's like Jacoby Myers is like it's also a biweek.

40:03There's like a lot of these factors going in.

40:05It's also, you know, Travis Hunter getting injured. It's also with Jacoby Myers.

40:09And it makes sense here. They actually had someone who was effective at working the intermediate portion over the middle of the

40:16field and would be willing to make those catches versus coming short with them alligator arming or like in Travis Hunter's case,

40:22like not knowing where to line up and everything of that sort.

40:25So he had a true NFL veteran wide receiver attacking the area of the field that Liam Cohen's offenses are built around.

40:32And then Parker Washington, like copy paste all that.

40:35We just talked about Parker Washington was like even more effective than Jacoby Myers was.

40:39So like everything kind of came together. I think what you said is the true part is like the more time on

40:45task with Liam Cohen, who top five play caller in the league.

40:49I mean, this is like back to back seasons where he's just like a total maniac calling plays.

40:54He should get a lot better as a head coach, because like you said, while his play designs were good, getting the

41:01frickin play called in was a total, total debacle.

41:03So hopefully they kind of clean up the operations here.

41:06Trevor Lawrence was running enough to like bring up his fantasy point total.

41:10And then he can get hot in a game because when he's accurate, he wants to push the ball down the field.

41:16When those balls are being completed, he can really take off.

41:20Sometimes he'll throw some bad interceptions. The ball will get away from him at times, which is why he's not all the way up there.

41:27But I think like we've created a baseline here.

41:30Like last year when he was like hovering between quarterback two and quarterback 15, like he's going to live there.

41:36And then just kind of comes down to how good is Brian Thomas?

41:39How much wide receivers Travis Hunter playing? Is Parker Washington legit Jacoby Myers holding the line?

41:44So I think he's in good shape. I think you could argue that the rushing attack might be worse this season, too.

41:50So the reliance on his passing game and short yardage rushing could still be there.

41:55Like nine rushing scores every single year just isn't going to happen for Trevor Lawrence.

41:59But it might happen again this year just with, you know, some of the scrambling and some of the design rushes inside

42:06the seven inside the five yard line. He's always had that dating back to his time at Clemson, too.

42:11He just didn't really see it in his first few years.

42:15Yeah. Inside the five carriers. I have a Josh Allen, one point one per game.

42:19Jalen Hurts, point eight. Trevor Lawrence, point seven third in the NFL.

42:22You know, big guy. Not a big guy. It's Kyler Murray.

42:26And he's your next quarterback right after Trevor Lawrence.

42:28Kyler Murray, now a Minnesota Viking. His last team, the Arizona Cardinals simply did not want him.

42:33So now he's playing in the league minimum here with the Minnesota Vikings.

42:37So we always talk about it. This is the Mick Shanahan tree.

42:41Are we getting a Mick Shanahan tree discount at quarterback?

42:44Not for my rankings. I'm ranking where I think he belongs.

42:47I think the ADP is a little bit too low for Kyler Murray.

42:51First of all, I don't think it's gonna be a quarterback competition with JJ McCarthy, who every single scatter plot I pull up.

42:57He's in the very bottom left of Kyler Murray.

43:00When I went back to watch his tape from last season, because we had a bunch of Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison

43:06and Trey McBride stuff to go through. And then Kyler Murray was changing teams.

43:11When I went back and watched those games, how many times did his receivers just drop the football?

43:16So I know his stats last year were just completely, completely like not up to standard.

43:20I thought his film was a little bit better.

43:23And more importantly than all of that, Kyler Murray has not had this environment in years.

43:28And when he did have DeAndre Hopkins with Cliff Kingsbury and the offense was fast and they're throwing the ball down the

43:34football field, he was a top five fantasy quarterback.

43:37It's been many years since we've had that. But we get Kevin O'Connell, who, by the way, with Kirk Cousins three and

43:43four years ago, he was a top 100 overall player in fantasy.

43:47Then with Sam Darnold two seasons ago, he had his best fantasy season.

43:51He was 109th overall player. Those guys don't run.

43:53And they were fringe top 100 overall players. Kyler Murray should be healthy, ready to go and running around on top of that.

44:00So I think out of all the guys in this tier, like who has like the highest fantasy appeal, like in terms of raw upside.

44:07I think it is Kyler Murray. Like he is does obviously has not earned our trust to like vault in there.

44:14Yeah. But after week one, if he has 260 yards and 35 rushing yards and he throws a couple of deep passes

44:20to Jordan Addison, like we're going to be like, all right, it's ready to go.

44:24Like immediately. He's being drafted as quarterback 17. And that's just too low when we're talking about the potential upside here, because

44:31in this area, like I just want to draft for a guy that, you know, can win me weeks.

44:36Literally win me weeks. And this is one of the coaching trees.

44:40And I think a play caller that can definitely do that.

44:43On the same time, I don't want to overlook how his time in Arizona just ended.

44:48Like, I understand that they technically said he's, he's injured.

44:51He's on reserve, all this type of stuff. Dude, he was practicing for multiple weeks and they just did not want to play it.

44:58Right. And they weren't a good football team. And I think you can look to some of the stuff on the field.

45:04Maybe I'm a bit more critical of him than you are that Kyler Murray just doesn't follow through with the scheme and the game plan of a play.

45:12Probably often enough that elite quarterbacks do. And so I think there are some negatives to his actual play style.

45:18On the other hand, I can also say that he has obvious physical attributes in terms of athleticism, in terms of arm, especially downfield passing.

45:26And he's attached to a play caller and Kevin O'Connell that has literally won us weeks with random quarterbacks.

45:31Like Nick Mullins. Dobbs from the Cardinals off the airplane.

45:34On three days notice. Right. And so I believe I trust in KOC to extract enough from Kyler Murray and to build

45:41an offense around Kyler Murray strengths that will mask some of the flaws and accentuate a lot of the strengths.

45:47So I am much closer to you as the quarterback 12 and I am where the public is drafting him as the quarterback 17.

45:54I wouldn't be surprised if we do our final August quarterback rankings episode and I have him like next to Dak Prescott,

46:00like keep moving him up throughout it all. I mean, it's not really going to be a competition.

46:05I think there's stylistically like similar quarterbacks between Kyler and Sam Darnold who they want to throw the ball down the football field.

46:12They have crazy arm talent and the rest of their profile can be a little bit inconsistent.

46:17And that's how Kevin O'Connell wants to play. It's like no pass protection rules, throw the ball down the football field.

46:23And if we complete them, we win 14 games.

46:26If we don't, we win eight games. Last year stuff.

46:29And like, obviously he did. It was not well liked in that building.

46:33It's also the Cardinals building. I mean, it's a, it's a complete, complete travesty.

46:37What's going on over there. And the Vikings are completely well run.

46:40They're always like first in the NFL. Yeah. But at the same time, like better environment.

46:45He also made Trey McBride much worse than Trey McBride should have been like some of the not seeing him in the

46:51end zone and like not targeting him in that area of the field.

46:55Like that stuff was legitimate to me. He was wide open a lot of that stuff.

47:00And we saw Trey McBride and Michael Wilson just explode without Kyler Murray, a quarterback.

47:04Yeah. But you don't have to throw the ball six yards down the football field.

47:09We got here comes a post route. Jordan Addison, another post route from the other side with Justin Jefferson.

47:14And like, let's, let's party. He's gonna be very inconsistent, but let's ride the wave.

47:19All right. Continuing on. Let's talk about Brock Purdy here.

47:21I drafted a ton of Brock Purdy last year, mainly because of the schedule that the San Francisco 49ers had.

47:27It was right up there with the New England Patriots as the easiest on the board.

47:32He has finished higher than this quarterback 13 ranking in each of the last three seasons, including years of quarterback eight and quarterback six and points per game.

47:40The schedule obviously isn't anywhere as soft, but the team was also ridiculously injured last year, including himself.

47:46And we saw that once he returned to the field.

47:48Yeah, I think Purdy is a really fun quarterback to watch.

47:52He can throw guys off of them for how like small or he's short.

47:56He's not even small. He's like pretty thick out there.

47:59So you get some of the Russian stuff with Brock Purdy.

48:02He wants to throw the ball down the football field.

48:05Mike Evans is an upgrade versus what they had.

48:08Hopefully Ricky Pearsall is an upgrade over what he was himself this last season.

48:12And then throwing Christian Kirk, Deshaun Stribbling. And then maybe you have something here.

48:16I think there's more question marks going into the season just because of the age concerns with everybody, including the offensive line.

48:22Like Trent Williams is probably not going to be the all pro version of himself.

48:27Is the offensive line going to be a lot closer to average?

48:30At the same time, Brock Purdy is just so much better now than where he was a couple seasons ago.

48:36And he's been Mr. Reliable when it turned in terms of his fantasy points whenever he's out there.

48:41He does not have top five quarterback within his range of outcomes.

48:45But I do think that he is like a fringe quarterback one, no doubt about it.

48:49He's the first pick of the ninth round right now, 97 overall.

48:53And you have him right at 97 overall. Okay, moving on.

48:56Fascinating conversation about Patrick Mahomes, who is swinging a golf club.

48:59He was injured late last year. They did not make the playoffs.

49:03And that wasn't just because he was injured. It's also because that offense freaking sucks to watch.

49:08And what did they do to fix that offense this year?

49:11Got rid of Matt Nagy. I mean, that's hey, we can't talk about Jackson Dart and not bring it up with Patrick Mahomes.

49:18That's a start. Maybe Rasheed Rice is out there in himself this year.

49:22We'll see about that. That's going to be a big hang up here.

49:26The offensive line rotating some bodies at the tackle spot.

49:28But that should be fine enough. I think the enemy over Nagy should matter to some degree here.

49:34Patrick Mahomes has never been like a goal line rusher.

49:37So we shouldn't expect that. But he has been buying time and creating some fancy points that way.

49:42So do you think that's going to last like with this injury?

49:45Like it's always in big contests. He scrambles a lot.

49:48And last year, he actually did a lot of it.

49:51He was the quarterback for in points per game because he was last season.

49:55Right. Because of his running. I am just nervous that after this injury, we get even less of that.

50:01Yeah. I almost believe that Mahomes is doing that out of necessity, though.

50:05Great. I do wonder if like they have to do that again.

50:08Well, I mean, yeah, Kenneth Walker is going to help.

50:11I think all this kind of averages out and then he's going to be in this range.

50:16I don't think he's at risk of missing week one.

50:19I think he's ready to go. I think he's going to be out there really early into training camp.

50:25And it's just going to be like you said, what percentage of Mahomes is he this year?

50:30Not how many games is he going to play?

50:32He's going to be out there. I think Rasheed Rice will most likely be out there week one as well as much of a headache.

50:40It always is for May and June. He's literally in jail right now.

50:43But I think that in week one, he will be out there.

50:47Yeah. He's not going to reach the highs that he did when he was, you know, throwing 50 touchdowns.

50:53They're just like the offense has completely changed since then.

50:56But I feel better about the enemy than Nagy.

50:58And to me, that matters to some degree here.

51:01I think you pointed this out. Their first two games are primetime contests.

51:05So the NFL probably expects Patrick Holmes to be on the field in week one.

51:09I think we should. It's Monday night football and then Sunday night football.

51:13Like if he's not out there, it's Justin Fields on Monday night football.

51:17That's not what they want. Bo Nix is next up for you.

51:20I don't know how much I should say. I had some interesting conversations about Sean Payton giving up.

51:25Play calling to Davis Webb and the effect that that can have here.

51:29I don't know if he really wanted to do that.

51:32Kind of wonder if this is not a force change, but something that can be difficult for those of us on the

51:39outside to know what extent a shift in Sean Payton calling down, down plays to Davis Webb is going to be.

51:45But what are your expectations here for O Nix in 2026?

51:48I also mentioned that like the Nix and Sean Payton, you know, relationship for as many ball games as they're winning has been very odd in the media.

51:56So yeah, I think all that's just offseason noise.

51:59And then for the most part, we're going to get to the season and Sean Payton is going to be awesome, you know, setting up his protections.

52:07The offensive lines and play way better than their talent is.

52:10And they got a lot of talent up front.

52:13And then he gets Jalen Waddle. I mean, they threw so many screens and I looked at RPOs to Troy Franklin was

52:19like the leader in like targets on RPOs this last year.

52:22And then like Martin, one of like the leaders in terms of red zone and inside the 10 yard line targets to not good enough.

52:30Like not good enough. Like get Jalen Waddle in there instead.

52:33And like this thing can absolutely take off. And Cortland Sutton being like a very legit number two instead of the alpha

52:39of the team makes a ton of sense. So I mean, Bo Nix, the last his first two seasons has finished 99th

52:46overall and 104th overall in fancy points of replacement per game.

52:49And he's adding Jalen Waddle. The only reason why I haven't ranked this like in this spot is because the ankle injury

52:55and there's been like a lot of noise and how many ankle injuries he's had, but, and I think because we don't

53:02trust Bo Nix as much as we do some of the other quarterbacks in this tier, but I mean, he finishes here without Jalen Waddle.

53:09Like you can tell me that Bo Nix gets even better in his third season.

53:14Jalen Waddle makes a huge difference. And then Bo Nix finishes at the quarterback six this year.

53:19Like that's definitely possible. Next is Matthew Stafford. Matthew Stafford finished last season as a quarterback three.

53:24And points per game. He had the touchdown score and Devante Adams.

53:27When Pukenakua is out there, Pukenakua is freaking awesome.

53:30They just threw the rock over and over and over again.

53:33We also don't have the weirdness of the back injury and the airstream at training camp.

53:38Hopefully this all season, or maybe hopefully we do because look what it turned into Matthew Stafford this season when I was so nervous.

53:45I thought one hit boom, who knows what's going to happen.

53:48And then there was in week seven calling this team the best in the NFL, which they could easily be once again in 2026.

53:55Yep. If he runs really hot, you can be the quarterback three.

53:58And then he, you know, go back to somewhere in his Rams averages.

54:02He's somewhere in the low end quarterback one mix.

54:05Then you start adding the age concerns. And then I'll just say like the fragility of the wide receiver room, then, you

54:11know, break a couple of ties against him. But he's firmly in this tier, like Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford are absolutely in

54:18the same fancy tier to me heading into the season.

54:21I had a crazy note on the Devante Adams stuff.

54:24So he had the most red zone targets this year at 32.

54:27He scored 12 touchdowns that led the position. He averaged 2.0 yards per target in the red area because they had so

54:34many like one yard line throws from that spot.

54:36So obviously all that stuff helps out Matthew Stafford and his touchdowns.

54:40They're projected for the most points in the league and we should be buying them.

54:44Okay. This next one is an awesome ranking because it's very against consensus.

54:48You have Malik Willis as your quarterback 17 right now.

54:51He's being selected as the quarterback 21. Why do you expect a, you know, sizable gap between you and the public?

54:57And do you think that'll shrink and more and more people will come to your side as the summer goes along?

55:03I'm guessing so, especially in redraft leagues where you don't need his scoring for the back half of the season.

55:09You just need right for September. Like he's going to project awesome.

55:13I mean, he's the small sample size King, not even just as a rusher, like his passing stats over the last couple

55:19of seasons are like quarterback one in EPA per play.

55:22He throws the ball down the football field. I don't know who he's going to be throwing the ball down the football field to this year.

55:30That's going to be the big problem, but I don't think we should say the entire dolphins team is going to be

55:36so bad and not at least say, well, by the way, they do have a new first rounder that's going to play guard or right tackle for them.

55:44They have the best center in the league and then their left tackles and athletic freakazoid who's on his way to being a perennial pro bowler.

55:52So like for what he wants to do, which is stand next to Devon HN and then run like crazy that I think that's going to work.

56:00Like, is the defense going to be able to stop anybody?

56:03I don't think so. Are they going to consistently have a third and eight conversion because they have a wider receiver that can get open?

56:10Probably not. But like the fantasy stuff for Malik Willis is there and there's, you know, what 20% chance that Malik Willis

56:17is actually just like a good NFL quarterback. You know, that's certainly possible too.

56:21And where he actually makes makes up for the difference of the bad pass catchers, but the rushing stuff is going to be out of control.

56:29Isn't this the late round quarterback formula that we just want to draft every single year?

56:33Yes. And it's more difficult, as I said, to open the show to find that.

56:38And this is the obvious one that's staring you right in the face.

56:41Uh, he's going the 11th, 12th round turn at this moment.

56:45I'm drafting a ton of Malik Willis at this point.

56:48And if it blows up, guess what? In redraft, I can just drop him and pick someone out, stream that position based on matchups very easily.

56:55And if it works, then you're probably getting someone that's scoring much higher than even the quarterback 17.

57:01You're probably getting someone that's scoring in the top 15, top 14 quarterbacks out there.

57:05And look like Bobby Sloick is not Matt LaFleur who recently got the best out of Malik Willis after he was kind

57:11of, I'll say like left for dead from the Tennessee Titans who drafted him.

57:15But Bobby Sloick did have an awesome protection plan for CJ Stroud during his rookie season and created these wide open downfield crossing routes.

57:23Now, granted that was with Nico Collins and tank Dell and Noah Brown, who had a really good season there.

57:28And he does not have experience that I know of, uh, you know, working with a mobile quarterback like Malik Willis, but

57:35it certainly sounds like he's building the playbook from the ground up and doesn't just want to copy and paste what they

57:41have done both in Miami and then previously in Houston.

57:44Uh, and just planting that here on Malik Willis.

57:47And that's the case. We're gonna get some design rushes and we just crave those when drafting quarterbacks.

57:52We were drafting Justin. Fair enough. We, you guys were drafting Justin Fields way earlier than this when the, there was overwhelming

57:59data for multiple years that Justin Fields was not good.

58:02And Malik Willis, the small, the small sample, but there's some evidence that he actually has a chance of being good and

58:08he gets drafted way later than him. And are they really going to bench Malik Willis who signed a two year contract

58:14with guarantees going into the second year for, uh, what's his face from Texas?

58:19Um, I'm not sure. Quinn Ewers. Quinn Ewers. I don't think so.

58:22I don't think so. We'll move along. Jordan Love is up next.

58:26Former teammate of Malik Willis. We know he missed some time last year, got hit in the gut.

58:31Uh, but boy, does he love to throw the football down the field?

58:35And, uh, he has basically three wide receivers to throw to now.

58:38He does, which is refreshing. There's not going to be that crazy rotation.

58:42Uh, we hope. I mean, they're going to be making up names for, for that to work this year.

58:48It can't be like save you on Williams as like a legit wide receiver.

58:52I hope not. At least, um, Jordan Love is much better than this ranking in real life, but the Packers are always

58:58low in volume and Jordan Love doesn't run pretty much at all.

59:02He can run. They just like do not use him in that capacity.

59:05So I rank him lower in fantasy than where I would in real life.

59:10If he's not that dissimilar from, you know, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott and those guys, like he can easily have those seasons here.

59:17So like this is where I think the hard part for, for picking in fantasy is all these guys look extremely similar.

59:23It's like, when do you actually want to spend your quarterback capital in redraft?

59:27You can sell me on just waiting and waiting and waiting and best ball.

59:32The quarterbacks are so valuable in half PPR that I still want to invest into it.

59:36But I mean, we're talking about what quarterback 18 already.

59:39And like Jordan Love could, I mean, he's not that far off from the quarterback nine every year.

59:44Yeah. I almost want to put like Malik Willis in his own tier because he's a different type of quarterback than all

59:51these next ones that we're about to discuss that are mostly pocket passers.

59:55Um, but let's keep on that conversation because Jared golf is up next.

59:58Uh, you have him one of seven overall. Again, these guys are all in order for you.

60:03Uh, this is a big change for him. I mean, we know Dan Campbell took back play calling last year and incomes drew petsing.

60:11And I actually think drew petsing and Jared golf are a nice combination in terms of like, Hey, we need to be

60:17precise in our timing, the rhythm base of it all.

60:20Uh, and then, you know, drew petting loves to build his passing attack around tight ends and Sam Laporta definitely has receiving chops on top of that.

60:28Plus I'm on Ross St. Brown. Um, and Jameson Williams.

60:31And on top of that, hopefully just the offensive line plays better than it did last year.

60:36Yeah. They are at least trying adding some new guys up front.

60:39Um, new center should be helpful. I do like petcing, um, over the last couple of seasons when he's been involved with the offense.

60:46So yeah, Jared Goff's been pretty damn reliable from season to season here.

60:50He's finished between 68th and 132nd overall in the last four seasons.

60:54And I kind of have them ranked right between those two numbers and my overall rankings here.

60:59There's not a whole lot to say. There's not going to be like a new version of Jared Goff.

61:04He's right. Skill guys are fantastic. The offensive line is probably a little bit closer to average than being like one of the best in the NFL.

61:12Like it was three, four years ago. Um, so he's, I think an upside quarterback too.

61:17And in any given week, the lines are going to be projected for 32 points at home against a bad defense.

61:23And we'll be ranking Jared Goff is like the quarterback eight in that week.

61:27Talk to me about Tyler Shuck, who you have a couple rounds later than Jared Goff.

61:32So there's a bit of a tear break here.

61:34Small one, um, heading into year two, uh, Kellen Moore play caller.

61:38Tyler Shuck came in about halfway through the year.

61:41You had Chris Olave, uh, and now you add in Jordan Tyson at wide receiver as well.

61:45Yeah. Everything's going up for, for Tyler Shuck. Uh, it wasn't really fantasy relevant for a lot of his rookie season, but

61:52I appreciated what he was doing, throwing the ball down the football field.

61:56He had, he had some moments where he was running by a lot of guys, which, uh, I think it's 40.

62:02They caught people off guard with zone read stuff.

62:05They only did it in like one or two games.

62:07And I don't, I don't think it's going to be like a weekly part of the playbook, but in those games, they really shocked opponents.

62:15I kept calling him Ryan Tannehill in my scouting reports and man, did he really feel like Ryan Tannehill this last year?

62:21And by the way, Tannehill had some, some seasons or some, at least like some months where he was running by a lot of guys.

62:29Um, yeah, I think that Tyson's definitely an upgrade versus what they had at wide receiver two after Shahid was out of there.

62:35And that's when Shuck started playing. Um, and then Jawan Johnson's a serviceable receiving tight end.

62:40The offensive line is actually really good. I think left tackle Calvin Banks is going to be a really good football player.

62:46They got a great right tackle as well. They got a lot of investment into the interior to varying degrees, uh, but

62:53a brand new left guard on top of that.

62:56And we like Kellen Moore and we like Kellen Moore cause he runs a ton of plays.

63:01It's like one of the fastest paced offenses out there.

63:03And I can see them doubling down with that now that they have better wide receivers and Shuck going into year two.

63:10Like if you had to say who's going to be the fastest paced offense in the NFL this year, you had to make a guess.

63:17I would say it's always Kellen Moore. Yeah. I would say it's the trend continues because Willis new play caller love same

63:24Jared golf, new play caller, Tyler Shuck same. And here we go with big Baker Mayfield, new play caller here with Zach

63:30Robinson, who was coming over from the Atlanta Falcons staying in the same division.

63:34Um, and this might be associated and attributed to the quarterback who was working with, but some interesting numbers here for Zach

63:41Robinson, he called play action at by far the lowest rate in the league at just under 10%.

63:46Uh, that could be a thing because they had to run pistol with Kirk cousins and Michael Penix, but it's also tough

63:52to wrap your brain around not running play action.

63:55When B John Robinson is in the backfield behind you.

63:58Uh, and I also felt like as a season went on for Baker, those, those crazy moments that we got to open

64:04the season when he was red hot and among the top scorers at quarterback, he had crazy sack avoidance.

64:10And every time he threw into a tight window, his wide receiver called it.

64:14And then like the final six weeks of the year, uh, he was being brought down every single time there was pressure.

64:21And then every time he threw into traffic, it was being tipped or intercepted.

64:25And like, that's this high wire act. He tries to operate in a quarterback.

64:29I don't really have too much more to say than that.

64:32Like when he's really streaky and the downfield stuff is working, he's a low end quarterback one.

64:37And then when it's not working, he's like in the super flexed here.

64:41So this is, this is like averaging those two things out, losing Mike Evans hurts.

64:45I do think there's a chance a Mecca is like one of those guys and can make up a lot of the difference.

64:52Um, and obviously they got a pretty good offensive line upfront.

64:55So there's a, there's a lot of question marks.

64:58This thing is kind of, it's the variance of the Baker Mayfield throwing the ball down the football field, you know, which is good luck projecting that.

65:06Who was Zach Robinson to you? Or do you want to just want to like table that conversation as we go along this summer?

65:13Uh, he's not a lot. I haven't spent a whole lot of time thinking about Zach Robinson, to be honest.

65:19Yeah. I mean, just looking at his finishes last year for Baker, when you go from week 12 and on quarterback 27,

65:2518, 20, 14, 20, 12, and 17. And that was, you know, compared to a lot of top 10 quarterback stuff early on in the season.

65:33I'm going to add the finish weekly finishes on these little player webpages in the future.

65:37Good note. We've got some time before release. We'll release it to all of you in the public.

65:43So this is just a tease whenever we do one of these videos and you're going to see it a lot more

65:49when you're going to be able to use this site.

65:52Okay. Speaking of play callers, uh, I was amped for what Nick Kaley could bring to CJ Stroud last year.

65:58Uh, and then it got to about week nine and I couldn't tell you like one thing different that Nick Kaley brought to this Texans offense.

66:06So are there any changes that can coax a higher scoring season than quarterback 22 here out of CJ Stroud?

66:11I think he's got the talent for it to matter.

66:14I just think it's such a tight needle to, to thread here because he's not going to be running that much.

66:20And I think if you're just looking at, you know, the David Montgomery addition, and then the guys that they're bringing in

66:27on the offensive line and Nico Collins, there was that report that he's kind of frustrated by the offense.

66:33I wonder if he's kind of reading the tea leaves and be like, Hey, we're going to be a really run heavy offense again.

66:40And it's like, okay, quarterback that doesn't run a lot, run heavy.

66:43CJ Stroud's got to be, you know, like Dak Prescott level to matter at that point.

66:48And I think he can do that. I think we've, we've seen it in glimpses, but I don't think he's earned our

66:54trust for that to be the case in like a baseline ranking.

66:58So, and then on top of that, I would put him into the circling back to our conversation earlier.

67:03His defense is so good that it actually does hurt his fantasy outlook.

67:07You don't have, you don't have to force it.

67:10Like on a third and four, they're going to run the ball and then they'll punt it.

67:15Worst case. And another team with a bad defense, they're throwing the football on those situations.

67:19So I think like the Texans, the Seahawks, like when you get to that tier of defense, your fantasy projections on offense do come down.

67:27And that's the only time where I think that your defensive stats actually matter.

67:31A nine point lead. If you're the Houston Texans is a lot different than if you have a nine point lead as you know, a Dallas Cowboys quarterback.

67:39Yeah. Um, I mean, even as rookie season, CJ Stroud was the quarterback 18 in total points, you know?

67:45So it's just this archetype of a quarterback. Like you said, it's a tough needle to thread in terms of fantasy production.

67:51Now just overall, what can make CJ Stroud get closer to that rookie season with Bobby slowick?

67:56It's being ahead of the sticks on offense. And if they have successful running game, that doesn't lead to third and eight

68:03plus constantly, then that's just an easier avenue to operate in at the quarterback position.

68:07And it just felt like over the last two years, they've been stuck in that department.

68:12And their answer was to, you know, trade for Dave Montgomery and then continue to draft and kind of shuffle these pieces around on their offensive line.

68:20And while maybe not one of the offensive linemen stands out as like a world beater, we always know that if the

68:26five gel, then that can be enough if they all stay healthy.

68:29And if that's the case, then yeah, I mean, getting in third and three and second and four situations would just be

68:36so massive for CJ Stroud to, I think, bounce back in a lot of areas.

68:40I have my doubts on the offensive line still.

68:43If new bodies every year and you look at them, you're like, are they actually any good?

68:48Because at some point they actually, the new bodies have to be good.

68:52And then also is David Montgomery going to be like ripping off like eight yard carries?

68:56I'm not sure. I have my doubts here. Well, one spot after in your rankings is Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers

69:03as your quarterback 23 low key, a new play caller here with it's taking over for Canales.

69:08I keep saying I think that means some anticipated changes, but I'm kind of the only one bringing that up.

69:14I think they're gonna be more pass heavy just to kind of looking at the changes on the offensive line.

69:20Like they got like smaller and more athletic up front.

69:23Monroe Freeling, I think is going to be excellent on the screen game.

69:26And that he's a very athletic left tackle. That's going to be coming in there.

69:31And obviously when T Mac goes crazy as a rookie and they keep doubling down, I think they're just going to pass

69:37the ball a little bit more here with Bryce Young.

69:40And I think that he actually does run. So his fantasy appeal, you can actually sell me on this.

69:46So I don't think there's pretty much any difference between I would say from shock down to Bryce Young.

69:51I think it's basically the same. And I think that you could sell me that Bryce Young should actually be towards the

69:58top of that, even if I don't like fully trust him all the time.

70:02I do think he played better football and I do think that T Mac makes a huge difference here going into year two.

70:09Yeah. And Jalen Coker being out there, hopefully at all times.

70:12And Jalen Coker wasn't on the field for the start of last season is a big change.

70:17And I have some optimism more so than any other Tennessee wide receiver for Chris Brazel and what he can bring in terms of like stretching defenses.

70:25Yes. They really haven't had like they have towering presences that can, you know.

70:29Really aggravate defenses at multiple areas of the field, but no one of Chris Brazel's skillset here.

70:34Yeah. I think they're going to throw the football down the field more rather than, Hey, it's in the fourth quarter.

70:40It's, you know, fourth and 10 against the lost in this Rams.

70:43You have to convert this past Bryce Young. And oh yeah.

70:47Then there's a 32 yard touchdown pass, like willingly calling those plays.

70:50There was a, in stats versus film, we had this conversation back in like early November that, you know, they were 31st

70:57in attempts of passes, 15 plus yards down the field, 20 plus yards on the field.

71:01And then immediately after that show, they started throwing the football down the field.

71:05And if you always look at those situations, the big time throw rate, the completion percentage, the touchdowns are always very, very high for, for Bryce Young.

71:13So I think like that's an area of the field versus just like clogging everything, the stick routes that we got in his rookie year.

71:21That it's just a nightmare to try to operate in like condensed space.

71:25And I do think my favorite part of Bryce is when he's playing closer to like Joe Burrow, like point guard, throw it out to the sideline immediately.

71:33And even downfield to the sideline immediately. Like that's the best version of Bryce Young.

71:37And I think what we're talking about here is like, that's the style offense we're going to rather than like under center

71:44play action, him having to turn his body and then try to see over his offensive line.

71:49I feel like I didn't like that much with Bryce.

71:51But if they're going more towards where, what he was doing in Alabama, which does feel like that that's where we're going.

71:58I think that would be good news for him.

72:01I do think there are some positives under center play action.

72:04They get some explosives out of there too, but I just think Canal is like, didn't totally get it with his play calling.

72:11Like the, it never felt good to open each of the last two seasons and they kind of figured it out in the second half of the year.

72:19So, uh, you know, being a head coach and a play caller is, is kind of a difficult thing.

72:24It's a lot. Okay. Cam Ward stands here next up year two.

72:28We're kind of fitting that it's talking about Bryce Young right before, because hopefully we can just throw out his rookie season

72:34because it was surrounded by misery from a play caller and a head coach being fired halfway through the year to offensive

72:41linemen, not showing up and wide receivers, not catching the football.

72:44Hopefully a lot of that changes here with Brian Dayball now calling plays and many more added weapons around it.

72:50Yeah. Dayball wants to run his quarterback. I cam Ward is, he has enough athletic tools to run a little bit, but he's never ran before.

72:57So that'd be a little bit interesting to see what they're going to do there.

73:02I'm guessing he's just not going to run that much.

73:05Uh, he was by far the worst quarterback against the blitz negative, uh, 0.40 EPA per drop back there.

73:10Um, the completion percentage on downfield passes was nowhere near good enough.

73:14He was kind of inaccurate there, but also his wide receivers were just beyond brutal down the football field.

73:19And that's where Cardinal Tate's going to come in.

73:22And then Calvin Ridley, like even though we're not expecting Calvin to be Calvin, like he's probably going to play more snaps,

73:29which is means Elika human or it's like not going to be on the good on the football field, which is a good thing for cam Ward.

73:36So offensive line makes me really nervous. Dayball is fine enough for fantasy.

73:40Um, but he's not like a difference making offensive coordinator either.

73:43Cam Ward showed a lot of flashes with his arm to like how many of those like sideline throws did he have

73:50last year where there's like sensational stuff, but the down to down consistency was nowhere near good enough.

73:55And if you look at the negative reports, uh, the negative side of the scouting reports, it was always that he has

74:02this kind of gunslinger mentality that you have to rein in the NFL for it to work.

74:07And like, we didn't see that as a rookie.

74:09So at some point we have to get the consistency going for cam Ward, but I'm expecting a jump here.

74:15I'm actually quite excited about cam Ward. I mean, he had the seventh highest average time to throw last year at just under three seconds.

74:22Um, a lot of that was kind of waiting for his students to get open, uh, and trying to avoid some quick

74:29pressures up front to, um, Wanda Robinson, not a total complete player, but he can win quick, right.

74:34And knows his Brian day ball offense. And then now you have Colonel Tate who could win outside.

74:39He can win down the field. He is a technician.

74:42He is so trustworthy. Um, and then going back to your stuff with the rushing, I remember you and I talking about

74:49Ward coming out of Miami that if table can make cam Ward more of a decisive scrambler, then I think something's there,

74:55you know, when getting North and South and like planning his foot, there was always some hidden rushing upside there with cam Ward.

75:02He just never really liked to do it or wanted to pull that lever.

75:06So it's something that if it can be unlocked, uh, can be a real asset for us here in fantasy.

75:12Yeah. Same thing with Stroud, like Stroud, whenever he takes off, you're like, Oh, like he's a good enough athlete to go do that.

75:19And he just like rarely does. Um, I put cam Ward in the same bucket there.

75:24Let's talk about Sam Darnold, super bowl winner, Sam Darnold.

75:27Uh, some people might say, dang, he was good last year.

75:30Uh, and then he's ranked here as the quarterback 25.

75:33How is that possible? Well, despite having the wide receiver to score last season and just about everything going perfectly from a

75:39Sam Darnold standpoint, he finished about this spot last year and scoring as well.

75:43So I, I kind of think it's just a cap situation, both from a defensive perspective and in just how they want this offense to operate for perfect.

75:52I should put him ahead of cam Ward, at least just looking at this, just, you know, optics wise.

75:57Uh, but like you said, it's the defense was so elite that he did not have to pass the ball at all.

76:04Like there were so many second half where he was like not throwing the ball, uh, that much, he gets really hot

76:10and he's got Jackson Smith and Jigba. And then hopefully she, he, they get like the best of him, um, going into

76:17like a legit, uh, full season with Sam Darnold.

76:19But losing Clint Kubiak has to matter to some degree here.

76:22Um, the defense is probably not going to be quite as good as it was this past season, but they still look really, really good on paper.

76:30So he doesn't run around that much to make up the difference.

76:34So he just has to get red hot in a game or two to have a spike week.

76:39And as you can see on the chart there, he has about two, every 10 games.

76:44And then the rest of the games are pretty mediocre.

76:47So yeah, he's a better real life quarterback than a fantasy quarterback.

76:50Moving on. Uh, and I believe the last name in this tier, it is Daniel Jones.

76:55And I should have mentioned Daniel Jones's name at the start of this because he was being selected as quarterback 29.

77:01And we know that in games that he played in finished much, much, much higher than that in scoring.

77:07Uh, unfortunately he's now being ranked and drafted much closer to that quarterback 29 standpoint.

77:11So are we just dumb? Are we blind or are we just ahead and thinking that he can't get back to the

77:18miraculous play that he had last year? It just depends on the split that you're looking at because I mean, the first,

77:24what, eight games of the season before he actually had his, his setback there, um, or his first injury, he was the quarterback six.

77:31And then the next set of games when he was dealing with that injury, you can see he kind of falls off

77:37into quarterback to land and the offense did not feel as great.

77:41And I think a large part of that is because Daniel Jones is like a legit athlete.

77:46When he's not being, he can't play like an elite athlete, then the rest of the warts kind of creep up more.

77:52And that's what makes you nervous when it's not just an Achilles tear, it's an Achilles tear, uh, in week 14 and

77:59it's to your back foot, which is how you generate power throwing the football down the football field.

78:04You also lost Michael Pittman. It didn't really replace them.

78:07You got a new right tackle who they like in house, but it's not, um, Braden Smith.

78:12Who's been old reliable over there. So I really like Shane Steichen.

78:16The offensive line is still really good. I like downs.

78:18I like Warren. I like, uh, Alec Pierce. The injuries is not good.

78:22So he's at the end of this tier. And they kind of tied themselves to him once they traded all those picks for sauce Gardner.

78:30Okay. Let's go rapid fire through this final tier.

78:32Cause we'll talk about these offenses as we go through this entire off season.

78:36I hope not. Gino Smith. I mean, a lot of jets being drafted early Hayden.

78:41So we're going to talk about Gino Smith and his return to the jets.

78:45Um, this is again, a tight needle to thread when we talk about fancy scoring, because he just has to throw a

78:51bunch of touchdowns in order to be fancy relevant for us.

78:55He was less accurate than he usually was. He was making way worse decisions than he typically was.

79:00I mean, he was just throwing the ball over the football and then over in the middle of the field, right to the linebackers way too much.

79:08Um, and then it's your guy, Frank Reich calling plays over there.

79:11Um, I will say this, but not my guy.

79:14I will say this, not my guy. Um, the jets offensive line is good.

79:18And the skill group has potential. I'm not going to call it good yet because breeze hall has been too inconsistent.

79:24Garrett Wilson is good. And then the rookies, I like the appeal of, but I don't, I'm not sold that they're like

79:31elite players, even though they're both first round picks.

79:33Um, so the good news about Gino Smith is like, could you name the quarterback too?

79:38Like he's not going to get benched for a while.

79:41So in basketball, you're going to get lots of starts out of him.

79:45They're projected for almost no points this season, obviously.

79:47Um, and he played really bad football last year versus the last couple of seasons.

79:52So I don't know what to think about this.

79:54Yeah. It's Bailey Zappy or Brady cook or fourth rounder Cade club.

79:58Nick. I forgot. Oh, I mean, I thought they're going to make a move for, for Andy Dalton or Carson wins or some Russ.

80:05I mean, we, I cannot believe you brought up Russell Wilson's name in this episode.

80:09Cannot believe it. Okay. They asked Gino Smith. Who do you want?

80:13He said, I like Russ. That's what he said.

80:15Speaking of, uh, Aaron Rogers soon to be Russell Wilson, uh, is up next.

80:20I mean, he sucked last year, but he's back in our lives.

80:23I like the Steelers roster. I really do like the rock.

80:26The offensive line has a chance to really gel, whether it's Broderick Jones or Maxi on a chair, what one of the

80:33spots, their other tackle sensational, their center is one of the best centers.

80:37And he's a young player as well. Michael Pittman.

80:39I mean, what a huge upgrade for wide receiver to Michael Pittman over Calvin Austin, whoever else they were throwing out there.

80:46Um, and they still got two nice tight ends and DK Metcalf.

80:49So like you look around, like the, if he can play the guitar at all, they've got a chance.

80:55I don't think he can, you know, I don't, he can't move.

80:58He didn't want to take hits. So I do think Michael Pittman's like perfect for Aaron Rogers though.

81:04Like all those little RPO passes and stuff, you're going to get that out of them.

81:08Um, Rico Dallas basically tried to make DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman last year.

81:12He, he, they tried, they really tried. And that to be fair, they did have that one slant for an ADR touchdown, which was pretty sick.

81:20It's the Vikings. Yeah. Yeah. I remember it. Cause I was going into one of our wider receiver rankings episodes.

81:26Like I can never get DK Metcalf's ranking. Correct.

81:28And I had him really low that week. And then like, right when I turn on the TV, there he is for an ADR.

81:35Okay. Let's talk about the Raiders quarterbacks. You do have Fernando Mendoza ranked ahead of Kirk cousins.

81:40Um, I'm assuming that's because you believe that Fernando Mendoza obviously has more ability.

81:44I do wonder, like, I think Fernando Mendoza is going to start more games this year, but I don't think it's a

81:510% chance that Fernando Mendoza only starts like five games as well.

81:54I think Kirk is probably going to play the first, I would say five to 14 games of the season.

82:00I think that they, I think they want Kirk cousins to be out there for as long as he's capable, you know, which they have all said this.

82:08Tom Brady said, Hey, sitting early helped me. And then if the team owner is saying this, then spy tech is saying it.

82:15Clint Kubiak is saying it who just worked with Sam Darnold, for example.

82:19And so this is like imprinted in the walls of the Las Vegas facility at this moment of, Hey, Kirk cousins is

82:25going to start a whole bunch of games until he basically can't anymore.

82:29It seems like the first report I saw from OTAs, the ESPN reporter who covers the Raiders said Mendoza is not even on the first practice field.

82:37They established a second practice field where Mendoza is going, hanging out with it's AOC behind Kirk cousins.

82:42And so we haven't even gotten him onto the first practice.

82:46It's hard to learn from Kirk cousins when you're not even on the same practice field as Kirk cousins is a weird strategy.

82:52Again, we're going to talk about these offenses a lot throughout the summer.

82:56Jacoby Brissett right now is next up for you as quarterback 30.

83:00Jacoby Brissett, speaking of bad defenses, he had, I think 20 something touchdowns or 19 touchdowns when trailing.

83:05He also had 10 passing touchdowns when leading. He just rips the rock, but right now he's holding out.

83:10He should hold out to be honest, looking at his contract, he's probably five to $10 million under sold because they told

83:17him he's going to be the starter. I don't think he's gonna be the start of the entire season, but it's one

83:23of those that unless the Cardinals are sneaky competitive, Jacoby Brissett's not going to start every game like they will want to

83:30see, you know, their young draft pick. Have you seen their schedule early on?

83:34I'm not into it. The schedule early on, it's like, I mean, it's just like you played the Super Bowl winner five street seasons.

83:41It's not good. Okay, moving on. Let's talk about Deshaun Watson.

83:44Somehow, someway, he's still in our lives. And somehow, someway, he's going to be the starting quarterback if you read every single

83:51report out there from Browns and national writers. So does Deshaun Watson have anything left at this point to, you know, be close to a top 20 score?

83:59Because I would argue like 21 through 31 is just going to change in a given week.

84:04But there's also a chance that he's just so bad that he is stuck in this 26 through 32 every single week of the season.

84:11Most likely scenario is he's a bottom five starting quarterback and then eventually gets benched for Shadour.

84:16I think that there's some scenario that he goes somewhere between where he was an MVP candidate versus where he's been previously.

84:23Did want to just mention like a lot of the guys ahead of him right now, Jacoby Bursette, Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield.

84:30Like a lot of these guys have been fully written off and then like they somehow get back.

84:36Obviously, Deshaun's pathway of doing that is a lot lower odds, but it does happen on occasion.

84:41We like Casey Kinsepsion. We like Fannin. We're okay with Jerry Judy for what he is, I guess.

84:46The offensive line might be one of the worst in the league and Deshaun Watson's sensitivity to pressure.

84:51It's really, really, really brutal. And then Todd Monkens is a good coach.

84:55He is. But for fantasy purposes, it's going to be really slow paced, really run heavy.

85:00Good news is Quintra Judkins looks really healthy right now.

85:02That was really promising. He's gonna be very important for them.

85:06So I think I would take the higher on how many games Deshaun Watson's going to start this year versus the consensus out there.

85:13I think that Monkens and the whole staff doesn't really believe in Shador Sanders and they they're paying Deshaun Watson.

85:19And they know Deshaun's more talented than Shador in general, that they're going to like give him as many chances as as

85:25they possibly can, which is why they keep calling Mary Kay Cabot to release the report that he's going to start.

85:31Like every single week she reports that he's going to be the starter.

85:35Let's close with the Falcons quarterbacks and to a tongue of Iloa and Michael Penix.

85:39I think it's very easy to project and try to predict what Tua looks like in this offense because we just saw

85:46Dylan Gabriel, a lesser version play in a Kevin Stefanski offense.

85:49A little bit less so here with Michael Penix since you know, there's some under center stuff and definitely attacking over the middle field and all of that.

85:57But boy, oh boy, does this quarterback room freaking suck.

86:00It's not going to be fun. It's Drake London, Bijan Pitts and then nothing else beyond that.

86:05But Pitts was really good last year. Yeah, no, Pitts was really good.

86:09And then Drake London's really good when he's out there as well.

86:13So I do think they can do this kind of like RPO style offense with Tua if they wanted to.

86:18And then it's with Penix. It's just a race to get back there.

86:22His ACL tear was in week 11. This is his third or fourth ACL tear.

86:27I forget what it's either one of those. It's never good.

86:30So I'm not sure how quick he's going to be back out there.

86:34I think they would want to see Michael Penix for most of the season.

86:38But if Tua is like keeping them competitive after starting the season because Penix can't get back there in time, I could

86:44see Tua playing for a large chunk of this.

86:47So in basketball, it's hard because you just don't know the exact split.

86:51I think early on it's probably going to be Tua would be my guess.

86:55Even if Penix is already out there practicing, which was kind of surprising to me.

86:59All right, that does it. Again, if we didn't spend enough time on your team, on your quarterback, on the one you

87:06wanted to hear, we've got months for it. That's where you need to lock into the channel.

87:11Hit subscribe. All this free content. I think tomorrow, not tomorrow, next week, we start three shows a week and maybe even more than that.

87:18So we've got some cool things in store for you over the next few weeks and especially over these next few months.

87:24Our goal is to hit 200,000 subscribers. You could hit subscribe.

87:28It's totally free. It would be massive for us.

87:30So shout out to you, shout out to Mosho and Wee's behind the scenes, and shout out to Aston Villa Football Club

87:37for being the best freaking club in the world.

87:39Talk to you guys soon. In a subset of awards.

87:42No, no, no, no. It's like a – No, just the best.

87:46You know, best can have many meetings, and in my heart they're the best.

87:50So – That's awesome. Up the Villa. Talk to you guys soon.

87:53See you.

More episodes from Underdog Fantasy Football Show

The First Round of 2026 Fantasy Drafts Is All Wrong

Jul 29, 2026

5 Players with Unlimited Ceilings Thanks To Playcalling

Jul 28, 2026

These 8 WRs Will Decide Your Fantasy Season

Jul 27, 2026

Jakob Sanderson's 5 Favorite Fantasy Football Picks

Jul 9, 2026

Our 7 Favorite Fantasy Football RB Sleepers

Jul 6, 2026

The Only 7 TE Sleepers You Should Consider Drafting

Jul 3, 2026